Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / F1 Mexico City GP 2026 | Betting Preview

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F1 Mexico City GP 2026 | Betting Preview · Apex Insiders Podcast

• f1capper: Apex Insiders is back. We got Mexico City GP. We are on it. We got F1 tipster here. He's in his fiesta or his Dia de los Muertos. He's having a lot Darksideday: Why not? f1capper: of fun. Having a lot of fun. Yeah. Darksideday: It's what gets the viewers in. It's what gets the viewers in these images. f1capper: I I'm actually always looking forward to your where where are you at next? What is it gonna look like? Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: What is I think this one takes the cake, man. I think this one is the one because you have a lot of good things around you right now. You know, got obviously the festival, you're in the stadium, it looks like you got Checo there, right with sunglasses, Viva F1, Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: yeah, you know, the donkey, the Buddha, and then Some tequila. Could use that right now. My throat's killing me. Darksideday: I think that would help. f1capper: Wouldn't but it would just be nice to have. So yeah. I have been under the weather, just like Kimmy in in Botas. It's it's it's Darksideday: Was that was that an insight as well that you're out? Does that mean f1capper: Thank you. Darksideday: your performance goes down? f1capper: Well, yeah, I guess, maybe. I don't know. I've been like I I'm I'm struggling to stay awake past nine because I've been on just whatever meds just to get over whatever it is that I had. No, Darksideday: yeah, they knock you out. f1capper: yeah, like just struggling and normally I'm like a night owl. And that's why we're recording today, is because yesterday I was used a lot of focus time and we just couldn't sink Darksideday: And I fell asleep. f1capper: and then you fell asleep and then I woke yeah, I was like, let's let's do this and then I fell asleep and it was like, All right, here we are. Darksideday: I was like, it's only I was like it's only an hour and a half towards away from doing the podcast. I just closed my eyes for an hour. f1capper: I honestly I was in a still in a world of pain yesterday, so it was fine. But we're here. the beauty is it's in Mexico City. It is let's yeah, let's talk about this. I mean it's it's a great track elevation. We know everyone knows Mexico City. It seems like everyone is aware of what it is, but if you're not It is the highest elevation race that we're gonna have. So when it comes to how your downforce setup is is gonna be set, you obviously can put you could put a lot of down for you could have a high downforce wing and it it won't matter because the air is so thin. you know, turbo lag is obviously gonna be part of the discussion, thinner air, just in general, there's a lot of differences. Like the track layout itself. seems like it's not too complex. There's, yeah, there's some a few slow there are slow cornering. But what makes it complex is the element of how it impacts everything from braking to how much power you're getting to your downforce levels to everything. And yeah, this is the first time we're gonna see these cars in At at the highest elevation possible. I think the last race that we you could kinda measure that, which isn't really the best measurement, is in Austria. I think that had some some higher elevation. But here we are. So I don't think we're gonna have any weather impacts. At least I haven't checked. But last I saw I was like everything looks pretty clear. It's gonna be good. So that bring and and lots, that's That is one thing I should be bringing up is the drivers, but I didn't even pull up my prelate stats. So I should go through that. give me one second. Let's just see what we're dealing with. I think we're dealing with the C2, C three, C4. Could I be wrong? No, the C three, C four, C five. That's what we're going with. So I think that is on the softest s softer side. traction is gonna be pretty medium. Braking is gonna be tricky. I don't know. I don't know how to really judge that. We we'll we're about to find out. But it's usually there you're gonna be pretty hard on your brakes because it's it's the cooling aspect, not because of the way the track is truly laid out. It's a little bit of both, but tire stress, I mean that's You're gonna experience graining here. I think that's just gonna be a a common problem. I don't think you're gonna see a lot of overtaking unless it's like in the first first turn. but tire tire stress can happen, especially with how much graining that these guys are gonna see. So like being behind another driver is not gonna be ideal for your situation. So it's something to pay attention to. But the just in general the track, it shouldn't the surface won't really be abrasive to them. but evolution is gonna be super massive. I think that's it's gonna be super super massive here. So but we got some rookie drivers starting in FP one. Let's let's go through the list, lots. big reason why they'd like this is the the weekend. usually FP one here a lot of the times teams don't want to overreact to making big, big setup changes. So having the rookies go in, it just gives them a pulse and a read of where they maybe should start benchmarking and how they should get the car set up. But if you start really tweaking the car after FP one and making drastic changes into FP two. You may r you may get i in a world of hurt because then the next day things could change even more drastically and it hurts everything. So it's trying to be methodical, if that makes any sense. And having the rookie drivers makes it less for the engineers to overreact to whatever they tell whatever feedback. So they're less likely to use that. They're just gonna use the driver, just go drive it around and put some laps in and let's just like do some measuring here. So first guy that's out Russell, Russell, Max, Norris, Lawson, Cola, Okan, Okan, Bordoletto, Albonstrel, and Botas. Those are the guys that are out. So in for Mercedes is Vesty. Frederick Vesty in for Red Bull is Iwasa. McLaren is gonna have Forinarlo. I don't I don't even know how to pronounce this guy's last name. I should know. But let's just call him Leo, Leonardo. Racing bulls, was it? Darksideday: Call him Rowley. f1capper: Rolly. Is that what we're gonna call him? Darksideday: First name. f1capper: Okay. Solof is gonna be in for racing bulls. never even seen this name in my life, actually. Maybe I should be paying more attention to F two, F one, or F three. Mini, Gabriel Mini for Alpine. Hirowaka is gonna be in for our Oakan. Slater is gonna be in for Gabe, Bordoletto. Browning is gonna be in for Albon and Crawford is gonna be for Stroll and Herda is going to be for Caddy. So free money Friday. You guys have been active this morning. Talk to me. What do you have? What do you have? Darksideday: I know, I know, they have been. So I've gone against the grain. I know people beat Oscar Piastri hater, but I've got him to beat Hajar Head to Head FP one at one point eight three. Any and he's f1capper: It's interesting. Darksideday: like ten three over Hajar over the season. f1capper: Okay. I'm pulling up. Battle line has some stuff because it I think it has the same same matchups at this point. Which by the way, I know that some of the guys have got in like I'm looking at this Jack Crawford and I was like, my god. I would have loved to have backed Jack Crawford at minus one twenty over Colton Herda. But unfortunately I didn't get that I didn't get that line right away, so here we are. What do I think about your play though? I don't have an opinion. I really don't. I think it's priced where it needs to be priced. I could see it being p Piastri going well. Darksideday: I saw I think DraftKings have got him at one point six two, like minus one sixty, which is too much. But one twenty. f1capper: Against Hajar? Darksideday: Yeah, minus one twenty. I take it. I'd prefer h Piastri over her jar top three as well. Plus three fifty. f1capper: Okay, so this is low grip. Low grip is is usually the crutch of piastry. But at the same time, do we really trust Ajar too? Darksideday: And there's only five drivers who can really get in the top three. And one of them's a bit dodgy ajar, so it just needs a decent map. For top three anyway, which I haven't backed. But for the head to head. f1capper: let's let me see. I've not seen Excuse me. Driver props. There's only three. It's at minus 115 for Hajar and Piastri. What are you talking about? 1.62? What is this fake news? No, I'm just kidding. Probably adjusted by then. damn, they got Leclerc juice to hell against Lewis. Pure. Yeah, I don't know, man. I mean, it's priced where it needs to be at. Let's see Darksideday: I think you could take Hamilton over a fair. I don't think that's too bad either. f1capper: I don't think so at this point, but I don't want to. But I kinda do. I'm trying to see what was the result last year for Mexico City. Cause I think we had something similar where I swear in my mind I took something. Maybe it maybe I should just go look at my tracker in twenty twenty five. I'm pretty sure I took something with Piastri and Darksideday: Well I can see he was fourth in FP one last year and there was about a thousand you know, junior drivers then. It must have been that. f1capper: Mm-hmm. Darksideday: Something top frame. f1capper: Hmm. Anything it's so what so you're just saying just based off what? You're just taking it because of the number or is it actually based on him performing? Darksideday: With the head to head. f1capper: Yeah. Darksideday: Well, Piastri be is beaten Hajar ten three over the season. And he's beaten him three out of the last four times, so it's not like an uptick in form or anything. It's only Malaysia that he lost against Hajar. So that's f1capper: kinda digging that now, now that you see it. also is that a product of just Hajar just not doing well in F P one? I haven't honestly been paying too much attention to him. Darksideday: He doesn't really do well in F P one, but also Red Bull generally don't do well in F P one. f1capper: Yeah, that's true. that's something we've always talked about with Max. Okay, I'm starting to get on board a little bit. I'm starting to get on board with this. Darksideday: Red Bull don't don't tend to push it. And are they really gonna push it with a jar? No, they're not. f1capper: Okay. Well, I said if I'm gonna do FP one, I should be tempering myself. I should be doing like half units on some of these matchups. I shouldn't be doing the full. So if I'm gonna do half or to win half a unit. So I feel like there's a little too much respect for Linblad here at minus one hundred forty five to Darksideday: Again, so f1capper: pier against Ghastly. I feel like that's a little too much. Well what's what's the what what are we doing here? Darksideday: Well, I heard I heard on the grapevine on the server. That Gasly's f1capper: Ha ha. Darksideday: useless in F P run. f1capper: yes, but Hm. I mean I don't have an interest in this, but I do want to dig a little bit deeper. You're gonna Darksideday: Did you have any interest in any of the junior drivers head to head that currently not? f1capper: I I have been new well, j the one that I was like immediately it was like, Gimme Crawford over Herta. Just give me that. And unfortunately it's it's juice too much. Minus one hundred eighty five. It's gotten to the point where I'm like, you can't look any other way other than go and herta at this point, which is good luck. Stomach that one. Darksideday: Do you know which junior driver? I don't even know if he's still racing. I wanna see an Abu Dhabi this year. I think my biggest ever head to head bet was on a junior driver FP one. Seeing f1capper: Was that was that one? Darksideday: Sheehan Shields and he drove for Aston Martin last year and he was like useless in F two and it showed. Well anyway, that's that's beside the point I can't find anything. f1capper: Well, what what what what can you tell me then? Because I only know about Luke Browning, Hirakawa. I could do that matchup, I could do the direct. Darksideday: That's all I know. I know she and Shields is useless. The rest of them I have no idea either. f1capper: I could tell you a little bit about I could tell you about Vesti, but Leonardo I wanna say he did fine. Darksideday: Who's who's Freddie Slater? Where's he come from? f1capper: I don't even have that one on here. Slater one. yeah, there isn't. Yeah, Darksideday: Well no, I don't think there is a head, but he's in for our day. Yeah. f1capper: I'm not I that's what I'm saying. Like I've I don't know who who half these guys are. I could tell you about the guys that I've seen. Okay, so here's my take. The one that I don't know that seems okay, so like at this point you cannot chalk to any of these guys at minus two five. You would be insane to do that at this point. You can only look the other way. You have to go Browning, you have to go Herda. Unless you have some juicy news. And let me tell you, like that Crawford, they were just giving you a gift at minus one twenty. Aston Martin is doing better when it comes to l the low lower speed cornering, and it showed with with Atacoda. Look how well they did. Had the long straight. Everyone's complaining about the straight. Who cares? when you get to the slow cornering, that's where it's gonna be it's gonna matter the most anyways at this at this track at at this point. Luke Browning, I just I I I actually like Hirokawa a little bit more than I do Browning. So I don't Darksideday: Cars look brown in driving. f1capper: he's driving the Williams, Albon's car. And then that's another thing is driving Albon's car. Darksideday: That's got bad luck on already already. f1capper: Yeah, I don't want any any part of that. But this this Mini versus Nicola over here I mean that that seems kinda interesting to take Mini, but I don't know anything about this guy. I I don't trust Darksideday: No. f1capper: Alpine in the in against this, you know, racing bull. If I'm gonna do that I might as well take Ghastly. But I know nothing about the two. I don't know. I do I've been going back and forth about mm about Vestie and Leonardo. I think Leonardo did pretty I thought he was in one of the sessions earlier this year and he got like top six, I wanna say. Darksideday: Is it A? f1capper: Let me look it up. let me let me look it Darksideday: Look at this on the on the podcast research. We don't prepare beforehand, that's our rule. f1capper: Yeah, well I'm pretty sure so I have some interest, but I do not want listen, I don't want to pay chalk. It's just FP one and these are rookies and this is low gra this is this is gambling now. We technically we've always been gambling, but Darksideday: We're gonna have to get that Reddit post up. f1capper: Yeah. Which which which one was that one again? Darksideday: We are disgusting gambling. Gambling away. f1capper: yeah. disgusting. Who gambles? Yeah Darksideday: On F one, I think, is it on F one? f1capper: yeah. These people should need to relax. Darksideday: Yeah, you got P P five, I think. f1capper: That's why we're here. We're helping we're helping gamble responsibly. So Darksideday: Is he the McLaren guy, this Leonardo? Yeah, f1capper: Yeah, yeah. Darksideday: you got P five in Barcelona. f1capper: That's right. Yeah. Yeah, so Darksideday: Maybe that one. he's a bit he's a bit short there, isn't he? f1capper: Yeah, I don't know. I don't think I could do it, but Vesty is interesting just because I keep talking about Vesty because I think from he's he's still in the Mercedes, right? that's still clearly one of the better cars. But on the other side, Leonardo, like he did pretty well at Barc Barcelona, like I mean Darksideday: Yeah, there's not many junior drivers that get above P whatever, P fifteen. f1capper: Yeah. Yeah. So different track. Listen, probably wasting a lot of time on it. I bro Darksideday: And it's Kimmy's it's Kimmy's championship winning car this week in Mexico. It won't like, Don't go too fast. Don't crush it. f1capper: No, that's it's Russell's car that he's going in for. yeah. So he ke he Yeah, yeah, just trash that thing. Yeah. Trash Darksideday: yeah. yeah, the P Light, yeah, yeah. Yeah, don't worry. f1capper: that thing. This guy needs to be bent anyways. So Darksideday: Ha ha ha. f1capper: as far as I'm not gonna keep going on down that rabbit hole with this, but as far as like Darksideday: Are you sure? f1capper: I'm done with the the the rookies. We'll get we'll get to it later. So at least you heard where my mind's at. And then Leclaire. I don't have top three up yet, but like just quickly on fastest and practice one. I honestly don't mind Lewis Hamilton at like plus two seventy five. I really don't. I just don't know like Am I missing anything? Like other than yes, LaClaire at plus one thirty would seems like the winner, but I don't I don't think it's worth my time, I guess, to win thirty dollars if I'm betting a hundred. Like it's just it's not like worth it to me to do that. top three it's too it's too juiced. I I don't know, man. I don't know what I would take on top three. I almost feel like Piastri is a is not a bad play at plus three fifty at this point, but I don't know. You have any opinions? Darksideday: No. f1capper: Yeah. Alright, let's move on. Let's move on. What else we got? Darksideday: So w so although we we all said it we both said it on the podcast last week and we didn't bet it in the mods, Kimmy winner, Bilo came in easily. And I think him being second favourite even this week at like plus one seventy five you gotta pack. f1capper: Mm. Darksideday: I just think you have to back it. Red Bull had the little resurgence, but the Mercedes is still the best car on the grid. The best driver's in it and is great at ra race pace. f1capper: What was the play again? Repeat it. Darksideday: a Kimmy race winner. And Max can't get off the line. He's I think I saw something today, Apex stats, that Max is one of the worst starters on the grid this year. f1capper: yeah, he's been terrible. Darksideday: At Mexico, longest straight, he's gonna be in like out the points. f1capper: I honestly my mind going into this weekend and it even started with with like back wanting to back Kimmy on when I was out and about on Saturday. I couldn't stop talking about I think we need to be back in Kimmy to to Hal. He he will tell you like I just kept every place we were going to Get a beer, and I'm like, we should probably be backing Kimmy, but I just don't want to do it yet. Cause I know there's gonna be people pouring in on Max until tomorrow morning. We can get better odds, we can get better odds, we can get better odds. And and my my hyp hypothesis is one, it was Coda, too. It was a little bit of like there's gonna be some stuff that are gonna be very tricky for him to deal with. With the curbs, right? It's the same stuff. It's just it's it's always the bumps and stuff like that. It's not gonna be so much of an issue here. But we just keep discounting Mercedes through this past three or four weeks of like, wow, we've seen you know, Red Bull's back, max, right? It's max. And I keep think I I I believe we're getting discounted pricing on Kimmy. Like he's been in a dominant car that is still one of the do most dominant cars. It's the best in pretty much any cornering possible. it may not be the best out of every team. They will still be second best in this area, but with overall lap. They they know how to put it together, except for Russell. And I just yeah Darksideday: Yeah, but f1capper: apart from him. But yeah, I feel like I'm I I I feel like we we're just getting Gifts with this Darksideday: And if we look at last race as well, Lit Leclerc was faster than Max in the race. And he was on the and Leclerc was on the two stop, which was probably the worst strategy. And still finished head. Yeah. f1capper: Y yeah, both him and Hamilton. Him and him and Hamilton were faster than Max. Yeah, I I'm I'm I'm I'm pretty much there, man. Like I'm I'm for me it's like I don't wanna just get cute with it and say, I'm I'm not gonna touch any Max, but my mind is definitely like ready to strike on Kimmy in one way. And that you s last week was the same thing. Like I was like, how how are we getting like Kimmy minus 175 top three pricing. this is ridiculous. we're getting discounts here. We should be taking it. but you were saying for the race, though, right? Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: I was thinking even qualifying. Darksideday: You get even better odds. f1capper: Yeah. I was looking at qualifying because of that because I was like But the only thing is it's like I don't want to put a lot because it is gonna be tricky session by session. This is the one thing that scares me is like we might be getting we might be able to get a better number just because you're gonna see maybe some volatility through each session, each day, let's just say, to the point where there's gonna be that opportunity between FP one in leading up to qualifying, you might be able to get that number that you're looking for. But plus two twenty is not bad. That's where I that's why I was looking at qualifying over the race right now. because if he doesn't qualify but like P three, let's say for instance, P two, yeah, then like you should be able to get a better number on him for the race. So I dig it. I mean, if you want to have it like listen, there's what Technically three races left. Darksideday: One thing I wish that I I bet on last week was f1capper: What. Darksideday: everyone well, a few people did Max Lap One Liter and I can't believe I didn't do Kimmy Lap One Liter. I don't know what price it was, maybe like one one minus one f1capper: It wasn't that gr Darksideday: forty. f1capper: it was it wasn't that great. Yeah, because I looked at it. I think my bet online it was minus one fifty even and I was like I Darksideday: Minus one fifty. f1capper: was like, No, I'm not gonna do that. I don't want that. So, I yeah, I'm I'm I'm all for that. qualifying matchups. They're up. What do we think about LeClaire over over Hamilton or vice versa? What do we think of this matchup this weekend? Darksideday: Well, Le Claire is the favourite. I don't know about anymore. Well every one in four races f1capper: Well, yes, he's a favorite. Darksideday: every one in four races you get or one in five races you get. Two thousand and eight Lewis Hamilton coming back, but f1capper: But I'm I I'm just I'm just so confused by how they price this sh excuse me. Darksideday: What are you saying? f1capper: I'm seeing for Raisin qualifying is minus one hundred thirty LeClaire over Hamilton. But then when you look at the practice matchup, it's well it's minus two hundred. I mean know like he he likes to have his, you know, glory run and all that, but Seems kinda are we getting a gift? Or are they trying to tell us we're Darksideday: Well it's either a gift for ha gift for Hamilton and F P one or it's a gift for Leclerc and the minus one furly. Which one do you think it is? f1capper: I don't know, when let me let me look at this very quickly. my mind says Leclerc is is is supposed to be the one here. Darksideday: I think so. f1capper: Let me first look at a comparison very quick. Because I would like to see so in qualifying Hamilton has qualified over Leclerc eight times, it looks like. Darksideday: The player beat Hamilton here last year in qualifying, but only by nearly a tenth. f1capper: And then on during the race it looks like they're they're they're even. Darksideday: Yeah, they're pretty even this year. f1capper: Okay, well here's what I'm gonna do. I think I think qualifying is the one we should be doing it. Because it because I said this last week and I think it really played in the hands here. Lec LeClaire seems to always have the the better setup when it comes to getting qualifying prepped. Lewis Hamilton does not. We've seen that from Hamilton in the past too when it when when he was with Mercedes. But in the race trim, he just seems to just always be ready to go. Leclerc, he does fine. Sometimes he moves back. So I'm gonna take qualifying. Wait, well, before I take this, are there better numbers? Because I feel like minus one thirty is like, hey, this is pretty good. This is pretty solid. Yeah. Darksideday: think so. I don't think you get better. f1capper: Yeah. So I'm gonna take it for a unit. To win a unit, that is. So that's cool. Darksideday: So last five races, Leclerc three two in qualifying, but in the race four one. f1capper: He's four one. Darksideday: Yeah, that's fair. f1capper: You know what? Let's just let's get cute with it. I'm gonna do both. Race and qualifying. Well let's go r let's run it back. So we got let's make sure this is Leclerc, Leclerc. Boom. It's in. Can't wait to get cucked by Chuck. All right. I like it. What else? What else we got? Darksideday: what do you think about points? f1capper: It's let's look. Let's see. I think ooh. So we got for top ten we have Liam Lawson is at minus one eighty. Pierre Gasly at minus one thirty. Limblad at minus one thirty. Cola is at plus one eighty. Oof. I don't know, why not Bearman at plus three fifty? Let's see, let's see. My My tipster He he he left me for a second. He's back. Okay. Darksideday: Back and back. I was trying to be seamless there, but you announced it. Terrible. Terrible. f1capper: Well, it was seamless, but then I wanted to put you on the spot. Darksideday: What do you think about Limblad? f1capper: I don't like it. I'm trying to look at what the what points are for On three sixty five. He's minus one thirty. I just I don't know. I I I don't know what's gonna happen in that top ten. But why wouldn't you like take a chance on especially right now, like take a chance on someone that with like why why not bearman? Darksideday: Yeah. We could about Holkenberg. f1capper: Matt Bear Bearman is plus four fifty. Yeah, no I don't want Hulk. Darksideday: P eleven. f1capper: The one thing that scares me about Audi is just reliability. High altitude. How is that gonna really impact them? that was just my biggest thing with them. But I yeah. Darksideday: I think Jen said to look on Cauchy for the bigger ones 'cause he got he got ten to one I think on Behrman points. So if you do have access for them bigger price selections, just go on to there. f1capper: Mm. Darksideday: Yeah, I don't think there's too much I like on points either, to be honest. f1capper: So I like to take this with some caution because I follow a lot of different random F1 guys over the years and they'll maybe retweet. These were trusted guys that I had, and then they all retweet something. I'm like, who's this guy that they're retweeting? And of course this was in Spanish. But this one guy thinks He thinks Alpine is actually going to do better than we expect. And then he said, here's why. Hold on. Let me just say. He says Alpine in four of the last six races, they have just been better than racing bulls in slow cornering. So the back straight in the stadium. Here I see racing bulls. Or that's where he sees the racing bulls. But he thinks that the mid speed corner was a problem for the car for much of the year. But in the last six races, Alpine was faster than racing bulls in mid speed corners. So basically he's saying that whatever you saw before, they've already been solving for this problem and he thinks that they're gonna do fine. And especially that, in the long straight they should have an advantage there too. anyways, I think he thinks that he thinks that Alpine could be sneaky, and I'm interested to see how does this actually play out. Is this guy just fluffing some stuff? But this guy got retweeted by someone that I I I respect. So Darksideday: think I saw that too. when one person tweets it, everyone tweets the same bloody thing. f1capper: Right, everything everything gets and I was interesting, interesting, interesting. Do I believe it? I don't know. Darksideday: So you're telling me Franco Colapinto point? f1capper: well, look Pierre Gasly and and Franco are already there with racing bulls. They expect that it's going to be racing bulls fighting with Alpine. So that's not like any shocking news. But when we're just talking about now we're getting into the depths of this, like do you really want to be the guy that's paying minus one eighty for a loss in top ten? Or you could be taking a chance on on like Pierre Gasly at minus one thirty. I don't know. I don't want to do it. But I'm but when I'm I'm also thinking as as matchups too, let's just see. I I don't want to get cute with it this weekend. I d I've really got to see these cars because there's gonna be so it's gonna be so different from what we've seen last year in the years past, different regulations. Cause these cars are shorter, they have less drag, they are going to just they we have this stupid energy management too so we'll let's see how that plays into effect. The high altitude, the braking, the cooling, it's all different now. So how is that gonna actually impact these cars and these drivers? Because they have to do different methods to make sure that they're not overcooking things. so we we don't know. As far as like top markets, I just don't I don't see any value Darksideday: Mm. f1capper: in taking anything just Just yet other than if I think Bearman is a good top ten potential. I mean that car has actually looked pretty solid. it's it's looked pretty solid, except for his performance, which I have to b believe it's gotta be from like damage or something. But that's gotta Yeah, Darksideday: What, last weekend? I think so, yeah. f1capper: because see I mean that car was constantly fighting with in within the top ten with those guys and Darksideday: I think when he went into Gasly in the corner, he damaged something there. f1capper: Yeah. It screwed everything. He screwed everything up. So I really do believe that there's there's opportunity there. taking taking on like a bearman. So other than that, that's just like a flyer. You're like, let's just hope and pray. and also for the race in general, you're gonna see some chaotic shit happen. So like if they have just a decent enough car to just fight with the top ten He might just inherently get there at the and at a plus 450, 5.5. That's pretty solid. It's a pretty solid number. That's one I would stick by with the top 10. Not saying it's going to be your best hit or anything, but it's worth a flyer. It's worth a right now. You're worth taking that. Top six, I would, I would love to take some no side on like Isaac Hadjar. I don't know why. I just don't, I don't, I don't buy it. Darksideday: I think in the US his race pace was terrible and he was lucky that Russell was behind stuck behind Piastri because he f1capper: Yeah. Darksideday: was n he was otherwise he would have been seventh. He started third and seventh he would have been terrible. f1capper: Yeah, I don't I just I'm not I'm not buying the guy here. Just just just not I'm just not buying it. in our top three markets right now, like I cannot I you know who I actually might I wouldn't mind putting for top three is Norris. Darksideday: Is it Charles? f1capper: No. actually Charles wouldn't be, but I don't want to do it at plus one twenty five right now. I'd rather validate. Darksideday: Not Lando Norris. f1capper: His number, his number, LeClaire's number, I don't think gets any worse than like minus 120, 125 at this point. So I'm okay waiting for Leclerc. Cause it's gonna be a fight between him, Hamilton, Kimmy, and like Max, right? They're just gonna be shifting odds throughout the weekend. But Lando Norris, the only reason why. I know people are gonna hate that. Is because They they know how to they're the that team is the tire whisperer. They really are. And they've that's gone back to even last year. And if they know how to take care of their tires, they could just win based on strategy alone. They just have to make sure they get in P4, P five. Well, forget about Piastri. He needs to get in P4. P five could work, but he can't be P six, P seven, P eight. He can't be fighting constantly to try to get ahead. Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: But I think that's the one that's gonna be the the the key is is he has to qualify well and that's the challenge. So I I don't mind it, but I'm not gonna get cute with it. What else? What do we got? Darksideday: Well I was trying to look at VSC and safety card stats, but yes for both f1capper: I have. Darksideday: sides is minus one eighty. Yeah, I don't want to take that. f1capper: Yeah, I have the stats on that, actually. gimme a second. Darksideday: I've got them up, should I give them? Shall I give them? So last ten runnings. Seven f1capper: Let me Okay. Darksideday: seven out of ten races had I have a VSC and five out of ten if I've had a full safety car. f1capper: Yeah. And they didn't there wasn't one last year and there was two the year before. Wasn't one in twenty twenty two, right? Darksideday: saying that, I don't hate safety card no based on them stats. f1capper: No, I don't, but it's just I just there's Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: I just it has nothing I just don't understand the stewards, to be honest with you. they could have easily just thrown a safety car out last in the last race. They probably should have. I don't know. W Darksideday: think 'cause the crane didn't something about if the crane enters the track or something like that, but 'cause it was over the fence. It's fine. f1capper: Yeah like we're this is what you're betting on. And I just I I can't get myself to do it. Like Darksideday: Plus one hundred forty low on the exchange. it's look I like that. f1capper: For for no safety Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: car. plus one forty, go for it. But I think it's at even and plus one twenty. I'm like, mm just doesn't it doesn't tickle me enough to to wanna do it. If you wanna have fun and gamble, go for it. It's just fine. I just don't I don't I don't find any I'm not finding any joy. What about margin? I d I did I not do margin here last year? Darksideday: For which what qualifying? f1capper: No, for FP one actually. Darksideday: F P one. f1capper: What what is our margin? Do you have that margin? How did I not do a margin stat? that's right. I was sick. No. Darksideday: Do you have a margin stat? f1capper: I don't I don't. Darksideday: But over point two is plus one fifty. Under point one is plus one fifty. In between is plus two twenty. f1capper: last year it was r in the middle, in between. How have we been doing in FP one anyways when it this year? Ask ask Alan. Just in general, how has the margin been in FP one not non sprint? Darksideday: Do want me to give you last five years in Mexico, average F P one winning margin? f1capper: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, gimme that. Give me that. Darksideday: Well the average is point one one two one two so just over a tenth. The median is under a tenth, but yeah. If only twenty twenty four was an outlier, otherwise they're nearly always under attempt. f1capper: So you're saying we should be taking the the shot at the in between plus two twenty? Darksideday: No, under a ten. f1capper: at under a tenth we should. Darksideday: Yeah. I think twenty twenty four it was nearly three thousand. f1capper: Well now look at this year. Look at this year. Okay, in this year too, we got an F P one, we're gonna still have we're not gonna have Max, so you're gonna have you're gonna still have Claire, Hamilton, which they those two will be close to each other. Mercedes. Actually, maybe this is Maybe this is an under. situation. Darksideday: 'Cause it might just be like Clarin Hamilton, P one, P two being close enough. f1capper: Well even if that if if Kimmy if Kimmy comes along too Honestly, my mind always drifts in this situation. this is like that's the complete opposite what of of what you should be doing with the margin. When you have high track evolution, low grip situation, and by the way, you you have half the grid not even taking part partaking in this, the screams you should be taking the over point one Darksideday: Two. f1capper: to point two, whatever. And that's honestly where my mind is is always goes to this place. But look at last year, like you said, the the average was what? Point one five, like you said. Darksideday: Yeah. Last year the winning margin was one ten. f1capper: Yeah, but it was point one zero seven. A fucking fart. A fart was the difference, right? Between you getting paid. But I didn't bet it last year. I don't I didn't see it online. I'm gonna debate this. I still have to Darksideday: Maybe it's in between. I think it might be in between. f1capper: I'm thinking we that's probably the number we should be taking. And it's a good number. The reason why I also like it is because it's two to one plus two twenty, three point two. Why not? Tell you what. I'll push the button for you. Darksideday: As as Apex inside his number one tip at the moment. I did the breakdown the other day. It's why you can't retire. You can't retire. f1capper: I I I well I can't. Darksideday: Ha ha ha. f1capper: I can't unt but they can make me retire. Let me th let me let me go back. I want to look at some other things, but I am I'm leaning it. That is I think that something is now getting me towards two point two point two or three point two number or plus two twenty. All right, let's move on. Darksideday: Something I always like to bet 'cause let me get the market out. I don't do it I did it I think two races ago and it came in. Is number of race leaders. Let me just get it up. f1capper: I almost did by the way, I hate I'm I almost did that last week. bet on bet you Darksideday: I always like Dutch in the one and the two. f1capper: Bet online, or not bet online, BetUS had three at minus one sixty five and I was like, I probably should be taking that. I didn't do it. I did not do it. Darksideday: But for Mexico, one and two, not yet. You have to wait you have to wait to see who's one and two. f1capper: Yeah. Darksideday: But if it's two fast enough drivers, yeah. Go for it. f1capper: Well let's see Bet US has been no, Bet US has it up already. It's minus three hundred for three or more. Darksideday: So you do one or you do two? You do both, one and two. f1capper: What is it twenty two seconds for the pit? Think so. Twenty Darksideday: Mm, yeah. f1capper: twenty two seconds. I don't know, man. I'm not it I'm not sure. Darksideday: Usually it just depends who goes first. You know what I mean? If it's like someone in fifth pits to undercut everyone, usually they just all react like third and fourth. So then and then this game over no one's no one there's not gonna be free race leaders. f1capper: I think three or Darksideday: it's quite hard to get free raise leaders usually. f1capper: Well how well let me see. What did we have last year? Oops. Let's go back to race. It was only one, Lando. The year before? There was two. Maximum and signs. Signs won that and Max ended up in sixth. Darksideday: I see twenty twenty three. What was twenty twenty three? Two. There f1capper: Let's see. Darksideday: was two. f1capper: I think you do both. You touch it, like you said. I think so. Darksideday: That's one market that hasn't been killed yet by Apex inside. f1capper: Well, that's a tough one. Mean it's it's pretty pretty tough. Okay, what else? Darksideday: Let me see. Is Bottas f1capper: I like how every time Darksideday: finally gonna get a last classifier? f1capper: Ugh Darksideday: Is he ever gonna get a last classifier? f1capper: Think so, man. I don't know if that car will make it. I just don't Darksideday: yeah. f1capper: I don't want to mess with last classified here. Darksideday: Did you hear what happened to the poor people who bought bit him last race? f1capper: what happened? Darksideday: Well, he retired on lap fifty two, right? So you're like, it's alright. No, lap fifty one, so it's like that's him within the ten percent. It's right, he's classified. But because he was a lap down, it wasn't classified. f1capper: It was he wasn't classified. god. That's our bad beat of the week right there. Darksideday: Things so f1capper: it's for st I'm gonna nominate that for sure the bad beat of the week for for everyone. Darksideday: You know what? No no no. Talking f1capper: I didn't play it actually. I didn't play it. I didn't Darksideday: about bad beat of the week, this is off this is not really related to the podcast, but a book came out Reese the other day. It was called The Hundred Worst Bad Beats in Everything. Poker, NFO, Football, Horse Racing. I was like, you know what? We we should have been in it. Should have been in it. I was thinking about Las Vegas. f1capper: The Vegas one I think has to be podium. I I didn't I I just I felt bad I couldn't believe it. I was there's so many there's so many bad beats we had. But I think that that one specifically it was mixed too. I think there were people with on Checo and people on Leclerc and it just Absolute cim cinema. Just absolute. It was just Darksideday: It was absolutely cinema. Cause the one guy you don't want to be on to be at his best performance, you're like, But he was fine, he he was ahead. And and then he wasn't ahead. f1capper: And it wasn't like anything that it was just it just Darksideday: He just got outbreaked by a mile. f1capper: you know, like w I I think about Miami a lot this when I got crushed by LeClaire at the last Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: like lap or two laps to Piastri. But I I when I went back and rewatched the race because I didn't I wasn't around for the race, I rewatched it and the entire time I'm like, you know, I'm not gonna win this thing. Piastri is just gonna get him. But I knew it was just going to happen. That race Darksideday: What was the clear over PS3? f1capper: God. That one Darksideday: Was it big? roughly. f1capper: Let me see. I had two units. even money. I got Darksideday: See, that's just even man. f1capper: I got wiped out. Miami this last year's Miami has to had to have been one of the worst weekends of candicapping F one I've ever had. Darksideday: Did you go to that one? No. f1capper: No, I didn't. I'd done fine on the others. It was that was that weekend I was racing myself. And normally I do that, right? I I'm always I'm usually no not around for Interlagos next weekend. No but I'm actually gonna be here. Darksideday: Because you racing. f1capper: Yeah, because I'm usually racing in Houston. And I do pretty well. I I'm I'm okay with like if I'm not around my computer I can Still gauge, kinda understand even this past weekend. I'm not around my my laptop doing data or anything. But that one, my god, man, that just I got absolutely demolished. I think I minus minus Darksideday: Hold on, hold on. We need we need some more information now. What do you mean you're racing in Houston? f1capper: Me, I'm ra I'm not racing next weekend in Houston. Normally I am. Darksideday: Well what what are you racing? f1capper: I'm racing a piece of shit datsen. It's a lemons event. Lemon Darksideday: It's a lemon. It's a lemon. f1capper: lem it's the lemons the lemons twenty four. Which we said we weren't gonna do Houston this year. We're actually going to Road Atlanta in December is why we're not doing Houston this year, next which would be next weekend. Yeah, it would be next weekend. So I will be doing my race during Probably no race because that would be the last race of the year, Abu Dhabi. so but yeah, no, I o I l I'm looking at my Miami GP and it was like all red except for two lines of green. It's like Jesus. Got absolute Darksideday: Sometimes you do have them races. They're just red, red, red, red you laugh, for God's sake. f1capper: my god, that was a minus twelve unit weekend. That was so bad. anyways, we digress. Let's go, let's conclude. I got, I gotta do my bad beat. which is let's get to w what is yours first if you have it? Darksideday: No, I didn't really have one. Last week went pretty well, so f1capper: look look at look at this guy. He's he's posh. He's he had everything go well, huh? Huh? Well, okay, so Darksideday: Maybe it's not even a bad I'm not gonna even say it lands podium. f1capper: when w what what's our rule with the bad beat? Is it like we just it has to be Okay, it's not. Darksideday: It's not a loss. It's not a loss. It's something that should that should have won. f1capper: Okay. Well let's let's have you judge this one then. Because I had Bearman over Alonzo. And he was clearly in the top ten. Sure. That's a bad beat, right? That's a Darksideday: I'll give you that as bad beat of the week. Yeah. f1capper: bad beat. And then he had to retire, and then Alonzo ended up being like shit anyways, because he had damage. It could have been an easy win. So that was a 1.75 unit loss. That was kinda that kinda hurt. Kinda hurt. wasn't fun. Good weekend though. Had a fantastic weekend, considering. yeah. Any last thoughts before we pray? Darksideday: having look at the markets, but I'm just reminiscing about when we first did this. We're like, yeah, fastest qualifier, fastest lap, win race, max for Stephen Evans, easy money. f1capper: Easy money. Twenty twenty three, twenty twenty two. Yeah. Darksideday: Yeah, twenty twenty two. f1capper: Yeah, because no twenty twenty-three it was actually Cheka won, I think, in twenty twenty three. Didn't he? I think it was. I don't know. Anyways. Anyways. Well, we will be in the Discord. Get into the Discord and get into the premium chat. Try it out. Seven days free trial. Darksideday: Yeah. You won't regret it. f1capper: May you won't regret it at for sure. And we got good hours too. I will be around. So hopefully I can dig into some data, even though it probably won't even matter because we'll be like, the hell is this? I mean, they're sliding everywhere, anyways. so we'll see. We'll see. Alrighty, we'll see you in the Discord. Darksideday: All right. See ya.