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Markets, Apple and ESPN, and Mecum Auctions (Podcast) · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Kielta's CEO Ta's Asset Management.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: He joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: And if you spelled your name t Oe w S
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: No way am I getting Ta's out of that?
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah? So actually there's a V in there. It's like
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: waves of the ocean with a T.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: Where's that from?
• 0:34
  Speaker 4: Where do you get?
• 0:35
  Speaker 5: Oh?
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well would have been an o um lot, which
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: is pronounceable in the English language, And so they converted
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: it to something that people could say, but not like say,
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: if you look at the spelling right.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: So yeah, despite for example, koenig or which means king.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: You know, it's just impossible, even for someone like me
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: who spent ten years living in Germany, I can never
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: pronounce the O with an O out over it. So
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: I think tas is the only.
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: Choice Yeah, so we're going all in. We're trying to
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: get lows to change their pronunciation, like we're like, we're
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: on a mission.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I just because I totally you weared your name
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: a little earlier today. But I'm not apologizing because there's
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: no way you get tased out of that.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: But I'll go with it.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: You're in our studio. We appreciate you coming in. Yeah,
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: what are you doing with this market here?
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: Phil?
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I mean people were just kind of figuring we're going
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: to the moon a few weeks ago, and then August
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: has a been so great?
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: What are you?
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: How are you thinking about it?
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: So it's you know, the markets are just big optimism machines.
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: I don't know, do we get that? Yeah, And so
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: there can be a couple of things that that cause
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: a dentin optimism. We all know about China rates. You know,
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: I'm not loving the move higher in the tenure again
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: today to sort of fresh highs. That's definitely weighing on it.
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: Are there going to be things that develop as a
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: result of those higher rates like we saw back in
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: March with the regional bank issues. We don't know. At
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: the same time, it feels to me a little bit
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: like pulling the hair nail off the finger. Is a
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: time to buy in this streets. You know, there's no
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: blood in the streets, right, And if we could make
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: it through the regional banking issue, why not this?
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: Uh Really, it's.
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: Interesting you're talking about in video because I think what
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: we need is just a little injection of something that
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: creates optimism. So if you get a really good report
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: out of that, because the AI theme going again, I
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: can think we could rally out of this. However, we
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: actually went defensive on our US stocks, which means fully
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: defensive last week.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: What's the defensive stock for you mean? Is it a
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: big bounce, lots of cash?
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: What's what's it mean?
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: So hey, when we say defensive, we mean defensive like
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: as in T bills. Oh right, So we have a
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: bunch of different funds we have. We have an option
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: hedged ETF and we're SKY that's always in the markets,
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: but hedged right with options. But we have a couple
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: of funds too that can go fully fully out of
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: the markets. And so those went out of the markets
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: in T bills. We can also be in aggregate bonds
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: and other types of things. Of those win into T bills.
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: That's purely just reactive to price trends, and so we
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: don't know what's going to happen. So that's you know,
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: that's the perspective we bring, is that we we have
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: fun talking about the market, but we can actually make
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: huge shifts, so we don't care as much as a
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: normal market player if things fall off the rails because
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: we can can you know, hedge against that.
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  Speaker 2: You can understand though, why the market's an optimism machine
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: if you just look at any long term chart of
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: you know, the Dow or the S and P five hundred.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously over the long term it's going up
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: into the right do you think the other you know,
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: four hundred and ninety three stocks and the S and
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: P are going to start to catch up with the
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: top seven? Maybe?
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: And you know it was broadening up before we saw
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: this little move down in the last three weeks or so,
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: so maybe. But when I say optimism machine, it's sort
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: of like a little different take on it in the
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: sense that as fast as you can go from optimism
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: to pessimism, you can go from a great market to
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: significant losses, right, And so I think everyone looks at
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: the fundamentals and just puts so much weight on that,
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: and you know, over the long term that is that
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: does weigh heavily. But it's really all about what sent is,
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: what the vibe is. And you know, you could argue
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: that we shouldn't be as high as we are right
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: now and the seven stock shouldn't have let us where
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: we are, but it is the way it is based
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: on just market momentum. And you know, I think fifteen
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: percent year to date on the S and P is
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: still awesome compared to those te bills that we just
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: did into last week, and so that could be enough.
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: If we just go bring it up another couple percent
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: and see the market take off, it could be enough
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: to get us back on the road again.
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: The cool thing about treasuries is if you get in,
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: you know, at a great rate, and what are you
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: getting on the tee bills? Like five percent? Sure, I
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: guess in that sense you have reinvestment risk, but if
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: you go a little bit out the curve, you could
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: top tick the rate and so not only are you
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: getting a decent return, but you're gonna get capital appreciation.
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: Right totally, And I think there will be a day
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: for that. I'm not sure it's right now. Though I'm
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: not trying to love that trade because just you know,
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: if we don't hit it, don't hit it into our
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: session and the market normalizes, the yield curve normalizes. I mean,
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: I think you're still sort of where we are on
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: the tenure potentially.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: So don't I don't know, to get into a recession.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: If the FED really wants to control inflation, don't they
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: have to push us into a recession.
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: I mean that go back into the optimism machine questions
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: is like, so many people think maybe it's not gonna
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: happen now, So I mean, look, I mean it's it's
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: the one thing that's that's interesting is it's so hard
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: to make these market calls, these economic calls, because so
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: many times, you know, over the last ten fifteen years,
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: you see something seems obvious and then it goes the
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: other way.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: But you know, the fore most optimistic words in the
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: English language, what are those? It's different this time?
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: Oh yeah, of course, no, I get that. I get that.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So what's the catalysts or catalyst plural
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: that would take some of that ninety percent of your
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: assets sets in cash now and deployed into.
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: This Okay, So all would take is a trend higher, right,
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: so good good get good in video earnings gets enough.
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: Maybe maybe it's not so much what good news could happen,
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: but whether we see receiving bad news, especially out of China,
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: And I mean, uh, you know, it's hard to make
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: the connection between all this bad news and shadow banks
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: and everything in China and how it could actually impact
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: US investors. And I think that's what we're all waiting for,
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: right because a credit crisis, it's all about things that
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: seemed like it's not going to really affect the markets broadly,
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: and then all of a sudden it totally does, like
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: financial crisis everything else like that. So I think, you know,
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: some good earnings, see the ten years stop going higher.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: You know, we're four point thirty two. If we could
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: stay there, I think that could potentially be enough. Okay,
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: We've got bad couple of months seasonality coming up in
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: September and October, so maybe if.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: You remember that, all right, so you know, how about
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: a pullback in this market? Is there a evaluation call here?
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: We just kind of got through the earning cycle, We
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: kind of got reset on earning's outlooks from a lot
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: of these companies is what did you take away from
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: the earning season we just got through.
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I think it's enough to keep us
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: going in the Bowl market, Like I don't think. I
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: don't think we weren't hit too hard in any particular place.
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: So I think it's enough to keep us going. And
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: you know, so I'm talking really here when I talk
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: about where the markets are going, it's all really basically
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: short term. Short term. I'm thinking about it what the
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: next three months six months is, because that's all people
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: seem to care about.
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: There are much bigger issues, and I think China plays
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: into that in terms of global debt. You've seen the
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: movie Interstellar where Matthew McConaughey's there on his spaceship and.
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: It's like eight times there's this there's what looks like.
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: A mountainscape in the background, and then they figure out
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: us a giant wave. Yes, okay, So here's the pessimistic
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: Felipe coming out, which is that that's still there right
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: in these record global debt. The presentation I've been doing
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: all across the country this year is the hidden implications
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: of global debt. And so if you want to zoom
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: out a bit for if you'll go there and not
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: care about next month. I think those are some huge implications.
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: And and you know China, they're they're well to GDP
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: is around eight eight x. So the only time we've
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: seen that historically is in Japan back in nineteen eighty nine,
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: the last time that they had a good stock market. Right,
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: and so that you know, you have three x in
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: the US. And so bringing that demand li equation back
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: into bounds, which means bringing wealth down and GDP up,
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: that can sometimes be painfulfully that.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: Just and right, Yeah, it could be leaving wealth there
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: and bringing GDP up.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: Potentially we can have a whole conversation about that because
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: I've got like a whole hour presentation. I can make
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: it into five minutes for you guys if you want so.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: All right, so we don't have time now, but I
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: want to see that presentation the next time you're going
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: to give it.
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: Well, so I do it, just I do it in person.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: You know that's happening.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: Oh, I see we have to hire you to come
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: into the office.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, right, yeah, how that'd be awesome.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: All right, thirty seconds the FED, what are they gonna
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: do next? Well? Next, next, Thursday. What are they gonna
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: do on Friday?
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Sorry etentally, but I mean assom nothing there So, but.
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: That's what I think. I mean. There have been a
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: couple of times this year when I've said it totally
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: doesn't matter what Powell says, and he says something important
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: and the market's really changed, so I have to I think.
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, I said that the last time I was
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: on with you guys. So I think just just like
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: nothing Burger is where we are in terms of like
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: because we're all expecting a you know, maybe another twenty
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: five BIPs out of the fad. It's just not the
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: same Newsmaker was over the past.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: World.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: We're going to turn that narrative around because otherwise, why
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: are we saying the whole surveillance team there? Exactly in
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: Michael mckeasey, it's gonna be the most important FED gathering
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: that we've had all year long.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Whatever Fisher out there they're running, we'll call it that.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Phil Tays, thanks so much for joining us. Phil Taste
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: is the CEO of Tay's Asset Management.
• 9:23
  Speaker 6: You're listening to the Team Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg
• 9:26
  Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,
• 9:30
  Speaker 6: the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen
• 9:33
  Speaker 6: on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Claudia sam joins us here founder and independent economist at
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: some consulting, but she was all over the place. She
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: was at the Federal Reserve, Senior conmfs of Council Economic Advisors,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: at the White House, on and on and on. She's
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: got PhDs from Michigan, not the Ohio State University, but Michigan.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: She went to Dennison undergrad That's most importantly.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: That's most important because I read state the great state
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: of Ohio.
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: I was there for one ill fated year ninety one,
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: ninety two.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Didn't work out for you? No, did they ask you
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: to leave, mister Miller, it might be better.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: For it was.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: It was, I think a mutual agreement, and it's under
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: sealed and we can't go there.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: Uh, Claudia, I would like to talk to you about heat.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: It's hot out there, and not just in the southern
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: and western part of the United States, but all over
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: the world. It seems like what does heat mean for
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: this economy?
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 10:29
  Speaker 7: So the Bloomberg opinion piece that I wrote was focusing
• 10:32
  Speaker 7: on heat and its effects. In particularly it's economic effects.
• 10:36
  Speaker 7: Like we know there's a lot of human cost to
• 10:38
  Speaker 7: you know, heat waves and very high temperatures, and this
• 10:41
  Speaker 7: instead was looking at, okay, what are the effects of
• 10:43
  Speaker 7: this on the economy, And these can be even if
• 10:46
  Speaker 7: we're not the ones in a high heat area, it
• 10:49
  Speaker 7: can affect us, right if the labor productivity is lower,
• 10:52
  Speaker 7: growth is lower, costs of a lot of these goods,
• 10:55
  Speaker 7: you know, agriculture goods is higher. So the effects are
• 10:59
  Speaker 7: broad based. And when you start to go through the
• 11:03
  Speaker 7: list of all the ways that high heat, rising temperatures
• 11:08
  Speaker 7: affect labor productivity is a really long list, and there's
• 11:13
  Speaker 7: a lot of variation. Whether you're thinking about geographic where
• 11:18
  Speaker 7: Arizona and Texas are going to bear the brunt of this,
• 11:21
  Speaker 7: and they certainly, and there are effects the summer, Phoenix
• 11:24
  Speaker 7: is the hottest city in the country, right so, and
• 11:28
  Speaker 7: there's also industry differences. Agriculture is hard hit, but agriculture
• 11:33
  Speaker 7: is not the only place that workers are exposed to
• 11:37
  Speaker 7: high heat. I mean, twenty percent of US workers are
• 11:40
  Speaker 7: exposed to high heat. So you don't have to do
• 11:43
  Speaker 7: too much math to figure out if these workers are
• 11:46
  Speaker 7: having a rough time doing their work. It's going to
• 11:49
  Speaker 7: show up in a measurable way and growth well.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: No construction. I was talking to some construction workers in
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: Texas who said they can't do the work during the day.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: Was last month. They couldn't do the work during the
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: day because it was far too hot, and then they
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: try to do it at night, but they have their
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: noise issues in residential areas. So it really is incredibly
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: expensive and in some cases they can't even get jobs
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: done because when you're laying cement, for example, it's got
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: to cure in a certain way and the heat doesn't
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: allow it. In any case. It's not the only effect
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: of climate change, right The storms, the massive storms that
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: we're seeing, the wildfires that we're seeing, also have an effect,
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: and that just builds up the costs on the country.
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: Is this just, I guess, a new normal or worsening
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: normal that we have to get used to.
• 12:43
  Speaker 7: Right, So, there's a lot of arguments about why we
• 12:45
  Speaker 7: have this high heat, why we had these droughts, and
• 12:49
  Speaker 7: regardless of whether you get into the climate change debate,
• 12:51
  Speaker 7: which will get you to this problem will get worse.
• 12:54
  Speaker 7: Like right now, we are seeing cost because as you
• 12:57
  Speaker 7: said there's high heat, not just in the US. Europe
• 13:00
  Speaker 7: has really struggled with this also, and so it is
• 13:02
  Speaker 7: like these costs are here right now, you know, and
• 13:06
  Speaker 7: to the extent like you were saying the construction workers,
• 13:08
  Speaker 7: we can only adapt so much, right, and then it
• 13:11
  Speaker 7: really starts to bite on productivity. And we see it
• 13:14
  Speaker 7: in a lot of places like food. I mean, we
• 13:16
  Speaker 7: see this already a lot of times.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: And we see it like within cities. So I'm looking
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: at your your opinion piece. Here in Washington, DC, there's
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: at times a seventeen degree difference between wealthy and poor
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: neighborhoods in Washington, d C.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: How does that come about?
• 13:33
  Speaker 7: Well, one of the and I mean I double check
• 13:35
  Speaker 7: that number several times, right, Like that's just wow, seventeen degrees,
• 13:39
  Speaker 7: Like that's a big difference. So what happens in a
• 13:42
  Speaker 7: lot of cities is you get these heat islands. Right,
• 13:46
  Speaker 7: So in poor areas, you don't have the trees, you
• 13:49
  Speaker 7: don't have you know, the grass, the wider spaces to
• 13:52
  Speaker 7: kind of absorb that heat. Instead, in a lot of
• 13:55
  Speaker 7: these lower income it's just you've got the you know, concrete,
• 13:58
  Speaker 7: the buildings that absorb the heat. And then push it
• 14:01
  Speaker 7: back out right like it's and so that can make
• 14:04
  Speaker 7: a big difference in terms of uh, you know, these
• 14:07
  Speaker 7: these heat islands can be much hotter in some places
• 14:11
  Speaker 7: than others. And then it's like, well, what makes a
• 14:12
  Speaker 7: heat island?
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: Right?
• 14:14
  Speaker 7: Is this lack of vegetation and all of this. So
• 14:16
  Speaker 7: that's another There are lots of ways that this high
• 14:18
  Speaker 7: heat creates disparities across those with less income and those
• 14:23
  Speaker 7: with more.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, like here in a metro New York area,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: whenever they put up the maps on TV of the
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: of the temperatures, seems like always the highest temperatures Newark,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, you know, by like three or four degrees
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: relative to everybody else.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Really, what about Midtown?
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: No, it's Newark is oil and I don't know why,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: but the poor folks there have to deal with that sometimes.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: Any case, it's a great piece, and I recommend if
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: you have a Bloomberg terminal type op I go if
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: you are are on the internet, you can just go
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: look at Bloomberg dot com and search for Cloudia some Cloudia.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: I want to get to the FED because your your
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: psalm role has become famous. With three month moving average
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: of unemployment. When it rises by half a percent relative
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: to the low point during the previous twelve months, that
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: means the economy is contracting. How does it look to
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: you right now? We're not in a recession, but are
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: we headed for that?
• 15:19
  Speaker 7: So the labor market is pretty strong still right consumers
• 15:24
  Speaker 7: are still spending. That's almost seventy percent of GDP. So
• 15:28
  Speaker 7: it's pretty clear that we are not in a recession
• 15:31
  Speaker 7: right now. I think some of the conversation in Jackson Hole,
• 15:34
  Speaker 7: the decisions that are made by the Fed over the
• 15:36
  Speaker 7: coming months, I mean that could have a real impact
• 15:40
  Speaker 7: on whether we go into a recession or not. The
• 15:42
  Speaker 7: sam rule says nothing about where we are headed. And
• 15:45
  Speaker 7: there's been a lot of indicators that normally are pretty
• 15:48
  Speaker 7: good at saying a recession is coming that are really
• 15:52
  Speaker 7: flashing red. I think they're too pessimistic.
• 15:55
  Speaker 6: But.
• 15:57
  Speaker 7: There, you know, not being in a recession now is
• 16:00
  Speaker 7: no guarantee of not being in a recession end of
• 16:02
  Speaker 7: year going into next year.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Well, do we have to get into a recession in
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: order to the Fed? For the FED to really control inflation?
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: Is that a necessary part of getting inflation? The inflation
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: genie back in the Bottle.
• 16:18
  Speaker 7: I firmly disagree with the idea that we need a recession,
• 16:22
  Speaker 7: and that messaging has been very clear from the FED officials, and.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: We don't need one.
• 16:28
  Speaker 7: We may get one, and if we get one, we
• 16:31
  Speaker 7: may see inflation come down a lot, but that does
• 16:33
  Speaker 7: not mean that we need one or needed one if
• 16:36
  Speaker 7: we get to that place. This special factor this time
• 16:41
  Speaker 7: is we are unwinding a lot of disruptions in the
• 16:44
  Speaker 7: economy from COVID. I mean, that's what a lot of
• 16:47
  Speaker 7: the disinflation we've seen this summer is coming from. That's
• 16:51
  Speaker 7: really giving the FED an assist here, right. It also
• 16:55
  Speaker 7: makes their job harder to figure out how much they
• 16:57
  Speaker 7: need to do. But if the stars all line and
• 17:00
  Speaker 7: they could, we have the ingredients. We don't have a
• 17:04
  Speaker 7: contraction where it's a very mild contraction.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: And that's kind of where I think a lot of
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: folks are because they just look at the employment environment
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: and we're still at our near full employment.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: How do you think about the labor market? Right?
• 17:16
  Speaker 7: So I found it fascinating that over the past two
• 17:19
  Speaker 7: years the markets have kind of like a recession is coming.
• 17:21
  Speaker 7: It's not coming, it's coming, you know, So we move
• 17:24
  Speaker 7: back and forth. I've been steadying the call. I you
• 17:30
  Speaker 7: know this, this is very important with the recession, yep,
• 17:34
  Speaker 7: where we're headed. And I think you know, the FED
• 17:37
  Speaker 7: tells everybody their data driven, right, so I can't fault
• 17:41
  Speaker 7: anyone for looking obsessively at the data. And yet one
• 17:46
  Speaker 7: release of inflation or like this is not going to
• 17:49
  Speaker 7: tell us anything. And with the labor market, the tide
• 17:53
  Speaker 7: can turn pretty fast. Yep, right, like it again, there's
• 17:57
  Speaker 7: no guarantee that we stay here, but I mean, my goodness,
• 18:00
  Speaker 7: this has been a good labor market. Yes, workers particuarly
• 18:03
  Speaker 7: low income or low wage workers.
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: Yep.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: All right, Claudia, thank you so much for joining us.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Claudia Sam, founder and independent economist at Some Consulting.
• 18:12
  Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape Can's our live program Bloomberg
• 18:15
  Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
• 18:19
  Speaker 6: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com.
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: And the Bloomberg Business App.
• 18:22
  Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
• 18:25
  Speaker 6: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Have miler Paul Sweeney here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Studio look at this, Matt, the bankrate dot com US
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: home mortgage thirty year fixed at national average seven point
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: five five percent from a rock star with my six
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: percent more.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: I'm surprised it's that low because, uh, we just saw
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: the tenure rise to what to sorry, four thirty four,
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: and we've seen the mortgage rate about three points above
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: the tenure lately. I know that's more than the historical average.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: Usually it's more like two percent above the tenure.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: But let's bring in a profession with those and stuff
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: for a living. Lisa Knee, National leader of real estate
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: practice at Eisner Amper, joins us live here in our
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. What's the world to do with
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: a mortgage rate of seven point five to five percent?
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, Matt's got his under three. He's not doing anything.
• 19:24
  Speaker 8: So thank you for having me a great question of
• 19:26
  Speaker 8: where we're sitting when we look at historic mortgage rates.
• 19:30
  Speaker 8: We talked about this before. When I first bought my
• 19:32
  Speaker 8: house twenty years ago, this was about what my rates
• 19:35
  Speaker 8: were at or about the sevens. And so when we
• 19:37
  Speaker 8: look we have some very very artificially lower rates over
• 19:40
  Speaker 8: the last ten to fifteen years and so it's not
• 19:43
  Speaker 8: really the mortgage rates, but it's pricing and figuring out
• 19:45
  Speaker 8: what valuations are at. And that's really where the trick is.
• 19:48
  Speaker 8: What are the values We talked about supply, So because
• 19:52
  Speaker 8: there's such little supply out there, it's going to be
• 19:54
  Speaker 8: a little bit hard for people to understand and make
• 19:57
  Speaker 8: those financing work with those mortgage rates. So if you're
• 20:00
  Speaker 8: below seven and you need to sell and move, there's
• 20:03
  Speaker 8: really very little that you're going to go to to
• 20:05
  Speaker 8: pay a higher rate going forward. And that's where the
• 20:08
  Speaker 8: supply is really going to hurt people who are looking
• 20:09
  Speaker 8: to be first time homeowners.
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: And most everyone's below seven. I mean people have what's
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: the average right now? It's got to be between three
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: and four.
• 20:18
  Speaker 8: Probably, yeah, and that's going to be difficult to compel
• 20:20
  Speaker 8: someone to sell their home to move to get something
• 20:23
  Speaker 8: out of a higher rate.
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: So what's the rate I don't know.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: I don't want to call it a break even rate,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: but what's the rate where you think the market freeze
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: up that buyers say, oh okay, I can stomach this
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: great reset?
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: Is what we call that?
• 20:34
  Speaker 9: Is that?
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: What it is? I mean, because so many people are
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: holding on to their homes. They can't come to an
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: agreement on price, right, because if you want to buy
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: my home, I'll sell it to you. I have a
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: three percent mortgage, so I'm going to sell it to
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: you for a hell of a lot more than I
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: would normally ask. But you're not going to buy that
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: because you need a seven percent mortgage. So there's no movement, right,
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: and Bloomberg we call that the great reset here.
• 20:59
  Speaker 8: That's exact, right. And it's also figuring out what the
• 21:01
  Speaker 8: real valuation is for your house, and so you think
• 21:04
  Speaker 8: it's worth while and above what it should be because
• 21:06
  Speaker 8: it's the numbers aren't penciling out based on those mortgage rates.
• 21:09
  Speaker 8: So you want that cash buyer, that unicorn of the
• 21:13
  Speaker 8: cash buyer, and be able to have them come and
• 21:15
  Speaker 8: purchase your home. But again, it's you figuring out what
• 21:17
  Speaker 8: what you're willing to take for you to have to
• 21:19
  Speaker 8: pay off your mortgage and move somewhere else, knowing that
• 21:22
  Speaker 8: you're not getting that rate.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Again.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean, so where are weak Statistically it's
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: just like an abnormally low time for lack of transactions.
• 21:30
  Speaker 8: The transaction market, not just in the home mortgage but
• 21:33
  Speaker 8: in every commercial real estate is at a standstill because
• 21:36
  Speaker 8: people are trying to figure out where mortgage rates are
• 21:38
  Speaker 8: going to be in the ten years. So you mentioned
• 21:40
  Speaker 8: it was four four thirty four point three, and so
• 21:43
  Speaker 8: figuring out how long it's going to stay there and
• 21:45
  Speaker 8: what those win are value is going to start coming down,
• 21:48
  Speaker 8: and then transactions should start picking up based on that.
• 21:51
  Speaker 8: But until people really understand where values are going to be,
• 21:53
  Speaker 8: and we're sort of at that set, it's going to
• 21:55
  Speaker 8: be difficult for transaction volume to pick up.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: So we haven't seen. What I want is see is
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: one or two kind of notable transactions in New York,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: for example, or San Francisco, and I want to see
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: if the discount is ten percent, thirty percent, fifty percent,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: sixty percent. I don't know where this market is. For
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: some of these big markets. On the commercial real estate side,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: we haven't really seen much transact have we.
• 22:21
  Speaker 8: The only thing we've seen is giving back to the banks,
• 22:23
  Speaker 8: which we know didn't make smart investment sense for people
• 22:26
  Speaker 8: to go, you know, work those properties back in and
• 22:29
  Speaker 8: things that are going to start trading soon. It's not
• 22:31
  Speaker 8: trading because there's no cash flow there. It's trading because
• 22:34
  Speaker 8: the mortgage rates aren't working to pencil out those deals,
• 22:37
  Speaker 8: and they just haven't happened yet because right now we're
• 22:39
  Speaker 8: waiting for those mortgages to be up. We talked about,
• 22:41
  Speaker 8: you know one of those fixes is it in eighteen
• 22:44
  Speaker 8: to twenty four months, and that really might be the
• 22:46
  Speaker 8: cycle of what we're looking for to see when those
• 22:47
  Speaker 8: tradings are going to start happening.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: What about building homes, I mean, are are we bringing
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: enough supply on in that way? Since there isn't enough
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: supply and you know, previously owned homes.
• 22:59
  Speaker 8: So correct, there wasn't enough supply In two thousand and
• 23:02
  Speaker 8: seven and eight, we stop building homes and so now
• 23:04
  Speaker 8: there's a little bit more. But what they're doing is
• 23:06
  Speaker 8: single family rental. Because people aren't able to purchase their
• 23:09
  Speaker 8: own homes. You've now have these large companies who are
• 23:12
  Speaker 8: coming and building single asset homes or single homes, and
• 23:15
  Speaker 8: people are renting them with the hope that they'll be
• 23:17
  Speaker 8: able to buy them and build up their credit rating
• 23:19
  Speaker 8: in the future.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: But by the way, find else there are a lot
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: of people who will say I don't want to buy
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: a home. In fact, the cost of ownership I think
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: is higher than most people realize taxes. A lot of
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: times rental is taxes. Tell me about it. In Westchester,
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: there are a lot of people who who say, look,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: I'd rather rent a home, and it's actually a better
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: financial decision. I can invest my money elsewhere and I'm
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: better off.
• 23:46
  Speaker 8: And when you think about the generation now that's looking
• 23:49
  Speaker 8: to buy homes, they're not looking at long term thinkers.
• 23:51
  Speaker 8: They're in the one to two year range, and so
• 23:53
  Speaker 8: for them to purchase a home that they're going to
• 23:55
  Speaker 8: be in there for thirty years when we did our
• 23:56
  Speaker 8: thirty year mortgages, they're not looking at that. They're looking
• 23:58
  Speaker 8: for the one to two years where they going to
• 24:00
  Speaker 8: live and not really want to commit to something for
• 24:03
  Speaker 8: that long term purchase. And that's why that short the
• 24:06
  Speaker 8: single family rental market is so hot right now.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: How much of the.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Problem is it going to be for on the commercial
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: real estate side when work just come due? I mean,
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: because we've seen people like Brookfield, I mean like major
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: institutional real estate people turn the keys over. I mean,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: this isn't some mom and pop developer I mean or owner.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: These are major global real estate players that are saying
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: I just can't make it work.
• 24:27
  Speaker 8: So what they're bringing. Why they're turning their keys over
• 24:29
  Speaker 8: is they're making sound business decisions of saying I can't
• 24:33
  Speaker 8: have my investors they have the cash to do it.
• 24:35
  Speaker 8: They don't want their investors to invest back in to
• 24:37
  Speaker 8: make those properties work, knowing that those have to be
• 24:40
  Speaker 8: reset at a lower price.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: A reputational risk there. I mean, I can't your failure.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: You just turned over the trophy Trophy property in San
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: Francisco to the banks. Now it's the bank's problem.
• 24:50
  Speaker 8: So they're making sound investment decisions of saying I can't, I.
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: Can't the bank. It's not sound to me.
• 24:54
  Speaker 8: Well, so when I I mean, that's a fair point.
• 24:57
  Speaker 8: But the banks are going to sit there and they're
• 24:59
  Speaker 8: going to make so that they work that out, and
• 25:01
  Speaker 8: they're going to all make sure that those properties get
• 25:03
  Speaker 8: repositioned in a smarter way, probably at a price that
• 25:06
  Speaker 8: makes sense for that new developer to come in and
• 25:09
  Speaker 8: reposition that property. So it is a sound investment decision
• 25:13
  Speaker 8: if you're an investor from a Brookfield point of me.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: It's going to take years, isn't it for this commercial
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: real estate market to sort itself out?
• 25:19
  Speaker 8: We at least need to see what's going to happen
• 25:20
  Speaker 8: in the next eighteen to twenty four months. And when
• 25:22
  Speaker 8: you talk about costs, the biggest cost people are complaining
• 25:24
  Speaker 8: about besides interest rates is insurance, and that insurance market
• 25:28
  Speaker 8: is really putting a strain on the pricing that's been
• 25:31
  Speaker 8: coming up for people to make sure that they can
• 25:34
  Speaker 8: make those deals work and pencil out. The percentage of
• 25:36
  Speaker 8: insurance going up year over year, it's been astronomical from
• 25:39
  Speaker 8: what we're hearing.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: You know, people make a lot of money in real estate, commercial, residential,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: but man, when it's bad, when it tied turns, it
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: is tough out there because everything conspires against you. Yeah, Lisa, NEI,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Lisa is the
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: partner and national tax leader for real estate practice at
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: Eisner Advisory Group.
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: And change your name, okay, Eisner Advisory Group.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Good stuff, all right, So, but you're sitting on your
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: three percent mortgage you don't have a care in the world.
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: Well, also, I can't move. I mean I have a
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: two year old and one on the way and a
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: wife that would kill me if I even suggested it.
• 26:12
  Speaker 6: You're listening to the Team Cancer Live program Bloomberg Markets
• 26:16
  Speaker 6: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the
• 26:19
  Speaker 6: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on
• 26:22
  Speaker 6: demand wherever you get your podcasts.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: Now. SRI has darkened the door of the Bloomberg Interactive
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: Broker studio. Let's find out what's going on here, Sree.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: It's not a huge unit, right, it's not a huge unit.
• 26:36
  Speaker 10: But this is again one of those strategic missteps that
• 26:39
  Speaker 10: people keep talking about ultimately, because you're talking about a
• 26:43
  Speaker 10: business that was part of the score Goldman effort to
• 26:46
  Speaker 10: get beyond its core base of ultra high network clients
• 26:50
  Speaker 10: go after the mass affluent market. How they did that
• 26:53
  Speaker 10: one is obviously through that ill fated consumer banking push,
• 26:56
  Speaker 10: which has completely been you know, they're attempting to wipe
• 26:59
  Speaker 10: it off the face of the earth now. But at
• 27:01
  Speaker 10: the same time, even in its wealth management business, they
• 27:04
  Speaker 10: wanted to go beyond their high network base because that's
• 27:07
  Speaker 10: a pace where Goldman's really good. They then wanted to
• 27:10
  Speaker 10: go out there with this United Capital purchase to reach
• 27:13
  Speaker 10: the market where your average customer balance size might be
• 27:17
  Speaker 10: one million, one and a half million, nothing like the
• 27:19
  Speaker 10: twenty five thirty million dollar customers you normally deal with.
• 27:21
  Speaker 10: But it was a signal that Goldman was going beyond
• 27:24
  Speaker 10: its roots. Undoing that deal four years after it's done
• 27:28
  Speaker 10: is a clear admission that that didn't work out and
• 27:30
  Speaker 10: it wants to refocus his energies to places where it's
• 27:33
  Speaker 10: really good at. So again, another circuitous path to get
• 27:37
  Speaker 10: to the place where they're already standing four years ago.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: I've been a key admirer and competitor to Goldman Sacks
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: for forty years, so to me, the only story I
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: care about now is just David Solomon, the infighting, the
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: partners or whatever's left of that partnership. What's it like
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: in the hallways and the executive suite of Goldman Sacks
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: these days, do you think? Or the Hampton's got forbid
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: there in the office.
• 28:03
  Speaker 10: It's funny, and I'm glad you mentioned Hamptons because just
• 28:05
  Speaker 10: last week there was an event where Gary Cohne was
• 28:08
  Speaker 10: there and the founder of BTIG was hosting it, and
• 28:11
  Speaker 10: he starts, ou nobody.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: Was wearing socks apparently, Oh that's right, down, no socks.
• 28:15
  Speaker 10: They were all Hampton's shakes.
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: So yes, madam, right, no socks on Larry Summers.
• 28:20
  Speaker 10: But here's the thing. The host, the BTIG founders started
• 28:24
  Speaker 10: off by cracking a joke saying, hey, if you see
• 28:26
  Speaker 10: Gary Cone leave, that's because he's been called back in
• 28:28
  Speaker 10: to be a candidate to be seof. They're all openly
• 28:30
  Speaker 10: joking about it. So the atmosphere inside Goldman sex is
• 28:33
  Speaker 10: obviously not great. But I will say that a lot
• 28:36
  Speaker 10: of the criticism has been brushed away, like, oh, it's
• 28:38
  Speaker 10: just personality issues. People are not happy with the hard
• 28:41
  Speaker 10: charging boss. But there are also some genuine operational mess ups.
• 28:46
  Speaker 10: The economists had a very good story over the weekend.
• 28:48
  Speaker 10: It is not like Goldman performance has been dreadful, absolutely not.
• 28:53
  Speaker 10: That's not why the stock would be up fifty percent
• 28:54
  Speaker 10: over five years. At the same time, it's not been great.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: It has been patchy, and patchy.
• 28:59
  Speaker 10: Is just the right word. You've had successes in places
• 29:02
  Speaker 10: where you're really good I investment banking and trading everything else.
• 29:06
  Speaker 10: You fumbled with the leadership and asset management. There By
• 29:09
  Speaker 10: my last calculation, I think they had like seven different
• 29:12
  Speaker 10: iterations of leadership in that asset management business. We've talked
• 29:15
  Speaker 10: at length about all their problems with Marcus, so clearly
• 29:20
  Speaker 10: on the operational side they've had some challenges and that
• 29:23
  Speaker 10: contributes to the air of discontent inside Goldman Sachs.
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: They don't have too many problems with Marcus from my
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: point of view, because I get four and a half
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: percent thanks that account.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: But all right, one of the things I want to
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: ask is what's the role of Lloyd blank find I
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: always think about the past chairman's of CEO or CEOs
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: of Goldman Sachs and what role they play, given that
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: it was a partnership for so long, given that that
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: partnership mentality, the clicks of partners still exists there, what
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: role does he play these days or.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: Is he kind of in a background.
• 29:55
  Speaker 10: It's interesting you mentioned Lloyd because all of the reporting
• 29:58
  Speaker 10: around him in recent months has been how he been
• 30:00
  Speaker 10: a little more open and has been griping about David
• 30:03
  Speaker 10: Solomon's performance. But in reality, I don't think what Lloyd
• 30:06
  Speaker 10: is saying really holds a lot of weight with current
• 30:09
  Speaker 10: management or for that matter, the board. But he is
• 30:12
  Speaker 10: if the griping is indeed true, he is he is
• 30:15
  Speaker 10: expressing a sentiment that's been echoed everywhere inside Goldman Sacks.
• 30:20
  Speaker 10: People who interact with Goldman Sax they're all talking about
• 30:23
  Speaker 10: the same topic. Even when they meet some of their
• 30:25
  Speaker 10: biggest clients. Those clients tell us that, you know, they
• 30:28
  Speaker 10: start their meeting, or at least half their meeting ends
• 30:30
  Speaker 10: up being a little bit about the palace entry inside
• 30:33
  Speaker 10: Goldman Sacks rather than the business' hand and that's obviously
• 30:36
  Speaker 10: a challenge that need to solve. For that, they need
• 30:38
  Speaker 10: to make that noise go down.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: It's interesting because I do look at the MGMT function
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal for Goldman Sachs, and it just
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: wasn't aware of is that David Solomon is not only
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: the CEO, he is also chairman of the board. So
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: he has a strong governmental I mean a strong position
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: structurally in the company.
• 30:55
  Speaker 10: Absolutely, and that's how a lot of American bank boards
• 30:57
  Speaker 10: are structured. It's very different in Europe. The chairman typically
• 31:01
  Speaker 10: does not tend to be the CEO. In the US,
• 31:04
  Speaker 10: that often is the case. Look at JP Morgan, look
• 31:06
  Speaker 10: at Morgensane, look at Goldman Sachs. But I think the
• 31:08
  Speaker 10: direction of travel and in the coming years you will
• 31:11
  Speaker 10: increasingly see a split in those roles as well.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: Again, I'm looking at this board.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: The lead directors Bio ungle Lesi, who I do know
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: because you're from the Credit Swiss first Boston days. I mean,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: he's a longtime global banker with a lot of heft
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: as well, so you used.
• 31:25
  Speaker 10: To run the investment bank Credit Squeze has a lot
• 31:28
  Speaker 10: of great credentials in the finance community. Do has done
• 31:30
  Speaker 10: really well with GIP Global Infrastructure Partners. And interestingly he's
• 31:34
  Speaker 10: been the chairman even before David Solomon arrived in the CEOC.
• 31:37
  Speaker 10: That is when sorry, not the chairman, the lead independent director.
• 31:42
  Speaker 10: So when Lloyd was there, Bio was the lead independent
• 31:45
  Speaker 10: director and has has held on to that role under David.
• 31:49
  Speaker 10: So in some ways, one of the more powerful but
• 31:52
  Speaker 10: underappreciated roles in finance right now is the lead independent
• 31:56
  Speaker 10: director at Goldman sachs At.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: In a time of tumult, there's so much news in
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: there's so much kind of m and a news in
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: finance this morning, right because you've your Goldman story, You've
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: got the City Institutional Client Group split. I'm gonna watch
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: that boy. Tyler Dixon is one of the top guys.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: You've got what kind of looks like a bidding war
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: over Sculptor if it'll be allowed, because it seems like
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: the game is rigged there to keep the current management
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: in place.
• 32:28
  Speaker 10: This Sculpture thing is just endlessly fascinating. You know, when
• 32:31
  Speaker 10: you heard about the guys who were looking to buy them,
• 32:33
  Speaker 10: clearly I believe fine and we knew Sculptor had been
• 32:37
  Speaker 10: pushed the Sculptor Capital Management, right and previously more famous
• 32:41
  Speaker 10: as OXI.
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, alternative manager, right, the classical hedge fund. Right.
• 32:48
  Speaker 10: But and we saw, okay, find they had a deal.
• 32:51
  Speaker 10: And normally that's the kind of roll ups we've been seeing.
• 32:54
  Speaker 10: But the fact that you have this all star line
• 32:56
  Speaker 10: of boys Weinstein, Mark Lasry, Bill Lackman contemplating accounter bitter
• 33:00
  Speaker 10: or putting forth account bit, it's so interesting. Obviously Sculptor
• 33:05
  Speaker 10: is not taking the bite just yet. We will see
• 33:08
  Speaker 10: how that unfolds. But yeah, it's it's it's interesting to
• 33:11
  Speaker 10: see this bidding war on that ox IF now known.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: As the Suction, that that community so tight knit, the
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: hitch mean hedge fund community wouldn't see something in the public.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: But it's at a fifty two week high today, it's
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: a three point six percent. Sculptor is SCU is the ticker,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: and it's got a market cap of a seven or
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: twenty five.
• 33:28
  Speaker 10: And the backstory is important, right, Uh, fascinating Oxif became
• 33:32
  Speaker 10: Sculptor after having gone through a pretty bruising battle and
• 33:36
  Speaker 10: some investigations over a bribery scandal, and of course there
• 33:40
  Speaker 10: was the whole leadership fight between Jimmy Levin and Dan Och,
• 33:43
  Speaker 10: who's who no longer doesn't have an act, doesn't have
• 33:46
  Speaker 10: an active role, but clearly still a big shareholder, and
• 33:49
  Speaker 10: they became Sculptor. And I'm telling you, the only thing
• 33:52
  Speaker 10: that will be better than this lineup of alternate bidders
• 33:54
  Speaker 10: that we've heard of is suddenly Bill Ackman and Carl
• 33:57
  Speaker 10: Icon decide to join forces a bit for Sculture.
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: Joint Force or fight over and plus you have, We'll
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: take either of those off. Dan ox saga, right, because
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: this is a guy who like builds himself up and
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: then destroys himself over and over again. You know, he's like,
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: how how big can I build this? And then he's like,
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: how can I ruin it in a dramatic fashion?
• 34:17
  Speaker 10: And talk about Ballastandrick Jimmy Levin was the chosen one.
• 34:20
  Speaker 10: He was dan OG's guy. He was the one who
• 34:23
  Speaker 10: was supposedly going to be the one running the place.
• 34:25
  Speaker 10: And you know dan was completely behind him, and then
• 34:28
  Speaker 10: this breaks out and this all out war between the
• 34:30
  Speaker 10: two of them.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: All right, so we'll pay attention to that. Like seeing
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: the hedge fund guys battle each other again. Another kind
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: of like billionaire story, billionaires acting oddly silly kind of.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Stuff, fighting about a crab shack, some eighteen property or
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: you know, someone's modern art statue that's an iesore.
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: Right, what did?
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: What did? Did? Bill Gross reportedly he like played the
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: Gilligan's Island theme song over and over again as.
• 34:59
  Speaker 10: Loud as he Yeah, how could we forget that one?
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: I love billionaires behaving badly.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Shrinata Roger, thanks so much for joining us. Wall Street
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: reporter Goldman Sachs, reporter for Bloomberg News. Joining us live
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio.
• 35:14
  Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape Cat's are Live program Bloomberg
• 35:17
  Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
• 35:21
  Speaker 6: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: The Bloomberg Business App.
• 35:24
  Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
• 35:27
  Speaker 6: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Matt Miller, Paul Sweeney live here in a Bloomberg Interactive
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: Brokers studio. We are streaming live on YouTube thankfully because
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: in our viewers get to see Dan ives in person. Dan,
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: I've senior analyst at Wedbush Securities, you know and your.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: Self site analysts, Matt.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: One of the challenges is kind of standing out from
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: the crowd, making some calls that really stand out. This
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: call stands out, and this is a call I fully
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: fully endorse.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: I've been calling for a long time.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: I get ignored the whole way Apple should end deal
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: drought by buying Espn. This analyst said that Dan I
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: was managing director senior analyst Wedbus Security.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: So Dan, I kind of agree with you here.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: What's your rationale behind your call saying Apple, which is
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: a company you follow and have filed for a long time,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: should buy Espn, which may be up for sale.
• 36:17
  Speaker 11: And I think, look eighteen months ago, this isn't even
• 36:20
  Speaker 11: a discussion. But I think if you look what's happened
• 36:23
  Speaker 11: with Eiger and Disney with a strategic process, I think
• 36:26
  Speaker 11: now Espn, in my opinion, it's a matter of when
• 36:29
  Speaker 11: not if the ultimately Apple is going to look to
• 36:32
  Speaker 11: at a minimum do a distribution deal, and we believe
• 36:35
  Speaker 11: potentially acquire ESPN because you look at what Apple needs,
• 36:39
  Speaker 11: they need live sports content. I think MLS in terms
• 36:42
  Speaker 11: of the messy situation, that's really what the appetite. I
• 36:45
  Speaker 11: think they've now recognized and you see the subscriber growth
• 36:49
  Speaker 11: that's been massive. That's what's going to bring them onto
• 36:52
  Speaker 11: the platform. PAC twelve clearly came and gone, and then
• 36:56
  Speaker 11: that was something that they were trying to get and
• 36:57
  Speaker 11: that deal fell apart. But when it comes to I've Sports,
• 37:01
  Speaker 11: it's the golden goose. So we ultimately believe that in
• 37:04
  Speaker 11: the next called six nine months, you know, Apple finally
• 37:07
  Speaker 11: can end this deal drought obviously not m and A
• 37:11
  Speaker 11: that that's in the typical DNA of Cupatina, and I
• 37:14
  Speaker 11: think ESPN ends up in Apple.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: Why stop at ESPN? Why not just buy Disney? They
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: have more money in cash than Disney has in market
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: cap total market cap.
• 37:26
  Speaker 11: Yeah, and I know, I mean others talked about like
• 37:28
  Speaker 11: ware and others about them buying Disney Marr Martin from
• 37:32
  Speaker 11: datam I don't personally see that, just because when it
• 37:36
  Speaker 11: comes to parks and it comes to the rest of
• 37:38
  Speaker 11: the Disney operations, that wouldn't necessarily be within the strategic
• 37:42
  Speaker 11: DNA of Cupatina. When you look at ESPN as an asset,
• 37:46
  Speaker 11: that's something that fits like a glove in terms of
• 37:49
  Speaker 11: in the broader strategy. So I think Disney itself I
• 37:53
  Speaker 11: put a very low likelihood, But when it comes to ESPN,
• 37:56
  Speaker 11: I think high likelihood that something happens here. Look, Iger
• 38:00
  Speaker 11: and Cook or you know know each other extremely well.
• 38:03
  Speaker 11: These are two companies that have interoperated you know, extremely well,
• 38:07
  Speaker 11: and it's something when it comes to ESPN, this is
• 38:09
  Speaker 11: something to me Peanut Butter and jeil can I.
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: Just what about the anti trust issues? Because regulators don't
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: even want to allow Apple to control what it does
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: with its own store that it invented for its own phones.
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: Like they're not even allowed to run their own business
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: in a free country, why would they be allowed to
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: buy Espn?
• 38:29
  Speaker 11: Look, every week there's just another black eye for con
• 38:32
  Speaker 11: and the FTC. So it just comes down that I
• 38:34
  Speaker 11: think big tech recognizes more and more starting to get
• 38:37
  Speaker 11: their oats. In other words, I feel like it's getting
• 38:39
  Speaker 11: to a point where you're now starting to see I
• 38:43
  Speaker 11: think more and more of a potential opportunity for M
• 38:46
  Speaker 11: and a When you look at Microsoft Activision, you look
• 38:48
  Speaker 11: with the constant battles that the FTC has lost. I
• 38:52
  Speaker 11: don't think that something necessarily makes them nervous. I'm not
• 38:54
  Speaker 11: saying that this is going to be easy to get through.
• 38:57
  Speaker 11: But when it comes to Apple, that install based within
• 39:00
  Speaker 11: Cooper Tino, that is the deal that I believe just
• 39:03
  Speaker 11: makes a ton of sense, and I think many within
• 39:06
  Speaker 11: the industry.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: More and more talking about you mentioned the deal they
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: did with getting Messi here to Major League Soccer.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: What was that? I forget, like, how did that work out?
• 39:13
  Speaker 11: I mean, ultimately, I mean there's gonna be a part
• 39:17
  Speaker 11: it's essentially a part rev share right that MESSI is getting,
• 39:19
  Speaker 11: and there was.
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: Like an Apple. Apple's allowing MESSI to participate without Apple.
• 39:24
  Speaker 11: Messi is not an enemy, and I think that's and
• 39:28
  Speaker 11: I think that's something where when you look at MESSI
• 39:30
  Speaker 11: coming with that's done in terms of subscriber growth to
• 39:33
  Speaker 11: the platform, it chows because look as much as Ted
• 39:37
  Speaker 11: Lasso and some of the cameo and the content, Apple
• 39:39
  Speaker 11: is obviously phenomenal. Right now, it's a mansion with not
• 39:43
  Speaker 11: that much furniture, live sports content where it's at all
• 39:47
  Speaker 11: right so.
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: Not to mention, I mean or despite of the fact
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: that in spite of the fact that soccer is just boring,
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: just to.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: Tears American people lived in Germany, well, compared.
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: To football or basketball, you like soccer.
• 40:05
  Speaker 11: Look personally, I mean, I could watch soccer, but obviously
• 40:09
  Speaker 11: the drum roll into what I've used college football. It's mecca,
• 40:12
  Speaker 11: it's the mecca.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: We are, right, Let's talk Penn Sate football a little bit.
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: We'll digress preseason rank number seven. I love that rank,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: but boy, that feels high.
• 40:21
  Speaker 9: Oh.
• 40:21
  Speaker 11: I think this is probably one of the most elite
• 40:24
  Speaker 11: defenses in all of college football. And in my opinion,
• 40:27
  Speaker 11: now with al are quarterback, Now, this is something I
• 40:31
  Speaker 11: truly believe. I think Franklin's put it together. And look,
• 40:34
  Speaker 11: when you look at Big ten, you got Penn State,
• 40:36
  Speaker 11: Ohio State, Michigan, which are all going to be three
• 40:38
  Speaker 11: of the top six or seven. And I believe the
• 40:41
  Speaker 11: tour slowly is being handed from SEC to Big ten.
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: There you go, now, our bosses.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: I can hear him walking down saying, get off this discussion.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: All right, let's step back again on Apple the iPhone fifteen,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: is that the next one in September.
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: Is that do I upgrade?
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: Because my battery is already starting to bug me? So
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: now I feel like it's what are you having or something?
• 41:00
  Speaker 5: Eleven?
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, but that's but your situation.
• 41:03
  Speaker 11: Actually, if you look at it today, take a step back.
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: You have two hundred and forty million.
• 41:08
  Speaker 11: That have not upgrade their iPhone in four plus years. Now,
• 41:11
  Speaker 11: battery life was phenomenal, so many were kind of like Paul,
• 41:14
  Speaker 11: like you had iPhones maybe three four years. I think
• 41:17
  Speaker 11: we're now getting what's going to be really four years.
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: Didn't Apple purposely set up the iPhone so that the
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: battery would die right at the end of the twenty
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: four month period? And again that's you know, is it
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: old wives tale? Haven't they agreed to pay money to
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: settle that?
• 41:32
  Speaker 11: Now, Look, that's something where obviously there's water under the bridge,
• 41:35
  Speaker 11: but when you ultimately but but it does speak to
• 41:39
  Speaker 11: what right now when you look at Apple as a stock,
• 41:41
  Speaker 11: I think this is sort of halftime in the Super
• 41:43
  Speaker 11: Bowl going in to what I viewed as a massive cycle.
• 41:47
  Speaker 11: And even in China, despite all the noise, they're gaining
• 41:51
  Speaker 11: three four hundred bits of market share, which is why
• 41:53
  Speaker 11: we believe Apple here is a table pounder on the pullback.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: All right, so we got you here in the studio.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: We got your Apple call. Give me us two or
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: three more of the calls that you're talking to your
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: clients about these days.
• 42:04
  Speaker 11: Look to the guidance heard around the world is gonna
• 42:07
  Speaker 11: be Wednesday night with Jensen and Vidia, because this is
• 42:12
  Speaker 11: i'd say, is probably one of the most important earnings
• 42:15
  Speaker 11: calls in many, many years for tech because it all
• 42:18
  Speaker 11: comes down to the godfather of AI. When you look
• 42:21
  Speaker 11: at Jensen and Vidia, they see the demand, they see
• 42:23
  Speaker 11: the use cases. I'm expecting bullishness Wednesday from them, and
• 42:27
  Speaker 11: I think that's important for the rest of the tech sector.
• 42:30
  Speaker 11: They're gonna see across the board. And then it kind
• 42:33
  Speaker 11: of parleads into what I believe is a key theme
• 42:35
  Speaker 11: of cybersecurity. You show that pow out though Friday night,
• 42:39
  Speaker 11: A lot of fears about that with the Friday night
• 42:41
  Speaker 11: special that soap Opera's done, I wouldn't expect them to
• 42:44
  Speaker 11: be doing any calls Friday night, but that was much
• 42:46
  Speaker 11: better than feared, and I think it just shows that
• 42:50
  Speaker 11: demands holding up well in cyber in cloud, in chips.
• 42:55
  Speaker 11: We think the new tech bowl market is already begun, all.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: Right, So the way you play that is in vidio, Yeah,
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: Microsoft is also maybe Armholdings right, oh yeah, what is
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: is that gonna been?
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Gives we got two minutes. It's a private company
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: now owned by what owned by soft Bank? Yep uh,
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: but in video wants to push that IPO and so
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: to other big players. Is it gonna happen? We're gonna.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: I think we're gonna get the filing today.
• 43:18
  Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean, I think right now this is something
• 43:20
  Speaker 11: the streets highly anticipating because it's all how do you
• 43:23
  Speaker 11: play these teams? And you look at ARM you obviously
• 43:26
  Speaker 11: have big player soft Bank and others in there, and
• 43:28
  Speaker 11: I think it's something where this is the biggest tech
• 43:32
  Speaker 11: theme in our opinion since nineteen eighty five, since start
• 43:34
  Speaker 11: of the Internet. So we are despite what we're seeing
• 43:37
  Speaker 11: in the macro and everyone focused on every fed sort
• 43:40
  Speaker 11: of meeting or every dinner where they give them speech,
• 43:43
  Speaker 11: the reality is that that white flag is starting to
• 43:46
  Speaker 11: get raised. It's a risk on and in my opinion,
• 43:49
  Speaker 11: it's the biggest tech trend we've seen thirty years.
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: So is it fair to call arm an ai play?
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: Oh?
• 43:55
  Speaker 11: Yes, I'd clearly be able to call that an AI play,
• 43:58
  Speaker 11: and Paul Matt I'd say the difference now is that
• 44:01
  Speaker 11: in video right now they're the only game in town.
• 44:04
  Speaker 11: But when you look down the road, you got Sue
• 44:07
  Speaker 11: and AMD, you got Armhold, and you're gonna have other
• 44:10
  Speaker 11: chip players in what's really gonna be a tidal wave
• 44:12
  Speaker 11: of spend all right?
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: What else? What else you got for us?
• 44:15
  Speaker 11: Look, I would just I'd say overall, this is something
• 44:18
  Speaker 11: where I think more and more investors are focused twenty
• 44:21
  Speaker 11: twenty four. I think if you look at names like Tesla,
• 44:24
  Speaker 11: we've obviously had to pull back post earnings, a lot
• 44:27
  Speaker 11: of worries about price cuts in China. We think barksworts
• 44:30
  Speaker 11: than bite ninety five percent. That has already in the
• 44:32
  Speaker 11: rear view mirror, and I continue to view it. In
• 44:35
  Speaker 11: electric vehicles, it's Tesla's world. Everyone else's paying rent, but
• 44:39
  Speaker 11: you are gonna have Look what's happened the three to
• 44:42
  Speaker 11: win three area code and there's massive turnaround GM, massive
• 44:45
  Speaker 11: turnaround forward what Farley's doing, and it's the biggest transformation
• 44:50
  Speaker 11: to the auto industry since nineteen fifties.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. I mean if Folkswagen has invested overseas
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: a ton as well, and we're getting uh, I'm driving
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: the bm W XM right now, which is a hybrid,
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: but I've driven the IX, which is very impressive. And
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: they have a fleet electric vehicles coming out. Mercedes has
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: the Equs and the EQUE.
• 45:10
  Speaker 11: Those are very and then yeah, exactly, and then you
• 45:12
  Speaker 11: ask it as well, exactly, and then you're gonna have
• 45:14
  Speaker 11: Paul with the cyber truck next going up to his
• 45:17
  Speaker 11: tea time in the cyber truck.
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, Danives, thanks so much for joining us in two
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: weeks until Penn State football kicks off. Dan Ives, Managing Director,
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: senior equity analyst, web Bush Securities.
• 45:29
  Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape catch are live program Bloomberg
• 45:32
  Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
• 45:36
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• 45:38
  Speaker 4: Bloomberg Business App.
• 45:39
  Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
• 45:42
  Speaker 6: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: There has been talk recently about a new COVID variant. Nope,
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: and I mean not here. There's I think it's safe
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: to assume that there's going to be a variant of
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: this virus around. For look, the Spanish flu was I
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: think nineteen eighteen, right, and we still have variants of
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: that floating around today that people kind of get every year.
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: It's not a big deal, it's just how it works.
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: But it could be a problem for the companies that
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: made the vaccines for the OG variants. Sam Fizzali joins
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: us right now, head of European Research and Pharmaceuticals Analysis
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: for Bloomberg Intelligence. Sam, great to have you on the program,
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: and I want to say that first off, people can't
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: people don't have to just listen to this program. No,
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: you can watch it if you go on YouTube dot
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: com search Bloomberg Radio and you can we stream live.
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: You were already an attractive man, Sam, but now with
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: the beard, I would say you're at least forty percent sexier.
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: Do you get a lot of thank you, a lot
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: of compliments on that.
• 46:52
  Speaker 9: You know that means so much to me. If you
• 46:55
  Speaker 9: hadn't said it, I mean, you've just made my day.
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: Basically, Well, I did not keep you, see you, I
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: did not support this move to it to a beard.
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: All right, so talk to us when I see you,
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: talk talk to us. About the h the possibility. I mean,
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: obviously there's gonna be new COVID variant, right.
• 47:14
  Speaker 9: Yeah, Look, I'm scared of Paul. I'm even more scared
• 47:17
  Speaker 9: of you. So I thought very hard that long about
• 47:20
  Speaker 9: writing another note on on COVID because the world has
• 47:24
  Speaker 9: moved on, and rightly so, because our death rates are
• 47:27
  Speaker 9: a lot, lot lot lower. We have vaccines, we have drugs,
• 47:31
  Speaker 9: we have everything. So why did I do this? Because
• 47:33
  Speaker 9: I'm interested in the companies that make the vaccines. We
• 47:37
  Speaker 9: have three companies involved in the vaccine making. If you
• 47:39
  Speaker 9: want to add novo vaccine, this four, if you want
• 47:41
  Speaker 9: to have five, et cetera, et cetera variant. What do
• 47:45
  Speaker 9: they mean? Variants mean that the more mutations they have,
• 47:49
  Speaker 9: the more likely they are not to respond to that
• 47:52
  Speaker 9: initial shield that our vaccine gives us. So and that
• 47:57
  Speaker 9: initial shield is just simply the two or three worth
• 48:00
  Speaker 9: of protection against an infection. And this new variant that
• 48:05
  Speaker 9: has just crop tops in some sequences BA spot two
• 48:09
  Speaker 9: Spot eighty six is the one that has got me
• 48:12
  Speaker 9: a little bit worried, just like omicron did when it
• 48:15
  Speaker 9: first appeared, because it has.
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: Thirty four mutations.
• 48:18
  Speaker 9: Now that means if it takes hold, and nobody knows
• 48:21
  Speaker 9: whether it will or not, that it could be a
• 48:24
  Speaker 9: variant that would not respond to our vaccines.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: So Sam, what are the companies telling you, guys about
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: any further boosters or vaccines.
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: That may be available this fall? What are they telling you?
• 48:38
  Speaker 9: Yeah, so they've all, Paul been making vaccines against the
• 48:41
  Speaker 9: XBB variant, which is what the regulators asked.
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: Them to do.
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: That's the data they presented.
• 48:47
  Speaker 9: That was the variant that was mostly responsible for infections
• 48:53
  Speaker 9: in the past few months. Now, the issue is that,
• 48:56
  Speaker 9: as I said, this new variant, if it takes hold,
• 48:59
  Speaker 9: that's very important to say because we don't know whether
• 49:02
  Speaker 9: or not. It's a very for mutations different am acids
• 49:06
  Speaker 9: different so it's very likely that our antibodies won't do
• 49:10
  Speaker 9: as well with them. We will still have great protection
• 49:13
  Speaker 9: against severe disease as we had with them the.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: Front in most cases.
• 49:17
  Speaker 9: So what this means is that if they have carried
• 49:19
  Speaker 9: on with XPB and say in a month month and
• 49:22
  Speaker 9: a half, this variant becomes if it does rampant in
• 49:27
  Speaker 9: terms of or the main variant of growing rapidly, that
• 49:30
  Speaker 9: the vaccines just won't do a lot for that and
• 49:34
  Speaker 9: of course that has to be tested. And if that's
• 49:36
  Speaker 9: the case, then you have lower sales who wants a
• 49:40
  Speaker 9: vaccine that doesn't do anything, and a higher stock write offs.
• 49:43
  Speaker 9: And that is not good, especially for modern I's already
• 49:46
  Speaker 9: told us they're going to have three and a half
• 49:48
  Speaker 9: billion to four billion of cost of goods manufacturing. You
• 49:52
  Speaker 9: put that in the context that six to eight billion
• 49:54
  Speaker 9: dollar guidance for sales, that's a humongous cost in terms
• 49:59
  Speaker 9: of margin, gross margin or gross costs at least, So
• 50:04
  Speaker 9: it would be a really difficult situation for them in
• 50:07
  Speaker 9: terms of managing this.
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: In terms of us getting sick, I mean most of
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: us have already had COVID once or twice, right, So
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: how strong is our natural, naturally developed immunity to new variants.
• 50:26
  Speaker 9: Yeah, so that really does depend on your age or
• 50:29
  Speaker 9: immune status. So there are of course people who are
• 50:32
  Speaker 9: very elderly, so they do need a booster. There are
• 50:35
  Speaker 9: people who are immune a compromise, who will always need
• 50:37
  Speaker 9: protection from drugs or antibodies. Unfortunately, we don't have the
• 50:40
  Speaker 9: antibodies anymore. For the average person, and I count myself
• 50:44
  Speaker 9: as an average person, even though as you can see,
• 50:47
  Speaker 9: I have a slightly white beard here.
• 50:50
  Speaker 12: You know, we're all around.
• 50:51
  Speaker 9: The same age, Paul and I. You're obviously decades younger
• 50:54
  Speaker 9: than us. We're likely to be okay. Now, of course
• 50:59
  Speaker 9: we all have a risk of long COVID or slightly
• 51:02
  Speaker 9: longer a response to the virus, but we should mostly
• 51:06
  Speaker 9: be okay with what we've already had. Really, the majority
• 51:09
  Speaker 9: of people don't.
• 51:10
  Speaker 12: Need another booster shop.
• 51:11
  Speaker 9: It is those people who are most at risks immune
• 51:14
  Speaker 9: systems are not as adept at dealing with rapidly changing
• 51:18
  Speaker 9: viruses who need the most help.
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: But the same is true with the flu, right, so
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: this is becoming more of a flu like risk.
• 51:26
  Speaker 9: Yeah, except you know, I mean there's the flu around
• 51:29
  Speaker 9: at the minute, at least in the northern hemisphere, right,
• 51:31
  Speaker 9: and then we have a wave of COVID. You can
• 51:33
  Speaker 9: tell without needing tests.
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: And all that.
• 51:35
  Speaker 9: If you look at the prescriptions for paxlovied in the
• 51:38
  Speaker 9: Bloomberg terminal, which you can look at if you had one,
• 51:41
  Speaker 9: you can see that the prescriptions are going up like that.
• 51:43
  Speaker 9: That tells you that community infections are on the rise
• 51:48
  Speaker 9: and that people who need paxlobed are hopefully getting them.
• 51:51
  Speaker 9: But obviously a lot of physicians are still worried about
• 51:54
  Speaker 9: some nonsense called Paxlovid rebound, which has nothing to do
• 51:57
  Speaker 9: with the drug.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: That is where you can see that there.
• 52:01
  Speaker 9: Is clearly in August, because maybe it's two hot people
• 52:04
  Speaker 9: all congregating inside. That's what happens in the winter. So
• 52:07
  Speaker 9: this this virus is behaving a little bit differently. Still,
• 52:10
  Speaker 9: we're only three years into it, right.
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: So Sam, how about for the companies and the income
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: statements for the Moderners and the Pfizers of the world,
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: were they in terms of transitioning away from I guess
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: the reliance on these COVID drugs into just the normal
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: course of business.
• 52:28
  Speaker 12: Yeah, Fiser obviously, Paul, we have to put Vizer aside
• 52:30
  Speaker 12: because they have a you know, sixty odd billion dollar
• 52:33
  Speaker 12: guidance for twenty twenty three, of which only about thirty
• 52:36
  Speaker 12: percent comes from vaxslovic plus the vaccine Moderna.
• 52:40
  Speaker 9: And Biontic, that's pretty much their revenue line today. And
• 52:43
  Speaker 9: I think that's going to stay the case for Biontics
• 52:46
  Speaker 9: certainly in the for the next foreseeable and Moderna possibly
• 52:50
  Speaker 9: into twenty twenty four to twenty twenty five, when there
• 52:53
  Speaker 9: are other vaccine for respiratorcs in situal virus is likely
• 52:57
  Speaker 9: to kick in in a very competitive market.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, looking at the Pfizer stock that's come down very
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: hard from it's high here.
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: So what's the kind of data fat shot they need?
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: We go v or ozentpe. Oh, yeah, we need to
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: get They need the opposite.
• 53:11
  Speaker 9: They need something to pattern the ship price.
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: They need that exactly.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: All right, next time we get you all, we'll talk
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: about some of those weight loss drugs, because they are
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: all over the place and all over the new san
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: Fazelli he's head of European Research. Is also the pharmaceuticals
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: analysts over there for Bloomberg in intelligence, is was our
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: go to is our go to guy on all things pharma,
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: including during that time of the pandemic and kind of
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: we're all kind of getting up the learning curve of
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: the disease and of more importantly the vaccines which have
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: been so effective.
• 53:42
  Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape Cat's are live program Bloomberg
• 53:45
  Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
• 53:48
  Speaker 6: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the.
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: Bloomberg Business App.
• 53:52
  Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
• 53:55
  Speaker 6: flagship New York station, just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: Let's get to cars right now, seeing as Pebble Beach
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: kicked off last week. And uh it's I guess, a
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: mecca for anything from classic cars to brand new cars.
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: Uh Ford, for example, unveiled their eight hundred horsepower Mustang
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: gt D and there are a number of other unveilings,
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: but I think really it's all about the collectors uh
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: in in Monterey. Dave Meggers joins us right now, CEO
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: of Meekham Auctions. Dave, thanks so much for coming onto
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: the show with us. Talk to me about your take
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: on the what do you call it the h concourse
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: concourse to elegance and and and what was seen out
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: in California this week.
• 54:53
  Speaker 5: Well, you know, Monterey Car Week is the is the
• 54:56
  Speaker 5: mecca for for car collectors every year and every but
• 55:00
  Speaker 5: he looks looks forward to coming to Monterey. All of
• 55:03
  Speaker 5: the major auction houses are there. Of course, the Concourse
• 55:06
  Speaker 5: took place yesterday. All manufacturers have have some kind of
• 55:11
  Speaker 5: a display there as well, and it's just it's just
• 55:13
  Speaker 5: a great place to be if you're if you're a
• 55:15
  Speaker 5: car person.
• 55:15
  Speaker 13: And last year Car Week roared back from a little
• 55:20
  Speaker 13: bit of a hiatus because of the pandemic.
• 55:23
  Speaker 5: And I think this year what I saw was the
• 55:26
  Speaker 5: enthusiasm continued to climb, and I would say this year
• 55:30
  Speaker 5: money Car Week was back in full force.
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: It's funny Matt Mice number three offspring, who's now twenty five,
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: when he was a teenager and even younger.
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: He's a car not like like you.
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: He and his buddies would sneak in to the del
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: Monte golf course at the Higher Regency where they all
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: these cars out.
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: On the golf course. It's just amazing and it's great stuff.
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 55:52
  Speaker 5: Of course that del Monte golf Course at the Hiatt
• 55:55
  Speaker 5: is the Meekam auction and that's right. We like to
• 55:58
  Speaker 5: think that's the best option on it, and so it's
• 56:01
  Speaker 5: a beautiful display. This year we had six hundred cars
• 56:03
  Speaker 5: that were all displayed out on the golf course on
• 56:06
  Speaker 5: the fairways.
• 56:07
  Speaker 13: That's always a great look.
• 56:09
  Speaker 5: We're the only auction company that is able to display
• 56:12
  Speaker 5: out on a golf course like that. And we had
• 56:15
  Speaker 5: a great collection this year that had seven English cars,
• 56:18
  Speaker 5: seven Porsches, vintage Porches and thirteen vintage Ferraris. We called
• 56:23
  Speaker 5: it the blow Chase Chanel Fast Collection, which translates into
• 56:27
  Speaker 5: fast fast Fast.
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: That collection was Italian, German and English. So what did you, guys?
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: What did you What were the notable sales? What would
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: you say the biggest that stand out for you?
• 56:40
  Speaker 5: Well, I think my observation was across the entire peninsula
• 56:45
  Speaker 5: for the week, I would say the keyword was Ferrari.
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: There were a.
• 56:50
  Speaker 5: Number of significant Ferraris that were on the peninsula, a
• 56:53
  Speaker 5: lot of them for sale.
• 56:55
  Speaker 13: Mikon was no exception. I think four out of the
• 56:58
  Speaker 13: top six cars that we sold.
• 57:01
  Speaker 5: Were Ferraris, two of them in the three million and
• 57:04
  Speaker 5: over three million dollar range of a sixty six Forrari
• 57:07
  Speaker 5: two to seventy five GTV sixty alloy and a nineteen
• 57:12
  Speaker 5: ninety Ferrari F forty. Those those are already significantly popular,
• 57:16
  Speaker 5: and I would suspect that when we when all the
• 57:19
  Speaker 5: numbers are in, we're still counting and we're still selling,
• 57:21
  Speaker 5: but probably seven of the.
• 57:24
  Speaker 13: Top ten cars are auction that sold will be Ferraris.
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: Hey, Dave, give them a sense.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: Because I didn't really know about this whole world until
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: you know, I started going to the concourse into all
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: this shows all around Monterey and it really.
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: Is a special time. There's something for everybody out there.
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Give us a sense of how the market is now
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: in terms of the demand, the pricing, the value, because
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: I know these are very substantial investments for a lot
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: of people, and they look at them and they treat
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: them just like they would their stock or bond portfolio.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: Talk about this is a marketplace.
• 57:55
  Speaker 5: Yeah, Well, first of all, that you know, there are
• 57:57
  Speaker 5: two types of collectors. There are those that collect because
• 58:00
  Speaker 5: there's some emotional or personal attachment to the cars that
• 58:04
  Speaker 5: they have in their collection, and then there are those
• 58:06
  Speaker 5: that are purely transactional financial making investments. And of course
• 58:11
  Speaker 5: the collector car market has shown significant returns as an
• 58:15
  Speaker 5: alternative investment over the last ten to twenty years, averaging
• 58:20
  Speaker 5: over thirty percent return per year, and of course some
• 58:23
  Speaker 5: brand's doing better than others, Ferrari of course leading the way.
• 58:27
  Speaker 5: But the market to the last I would say the
• 58:30
  Speaker 5: last two years since coming out of the pandemic, has
• 58:33
  Speaker 5: been absolutely red hot. We've been seeing thirty percent increases
• 58:37
  Speaker 5: and prices annually, if not more than that for certain
• 58:40
  Speaker 5: select cars, and it truly has been a seller's market.
• 58:45
  Speaker 5: I would say this year, in twenty twenty three, we're
• 58:47
  Speaker 5: seeing the prices not accelerating as fast as they have
• 58:51
  Speaker 5: the last couple of years, which is beneficial of course
• 58:55
  Speaker 5: to buyers and collectors. And my observation is right now
• 58:58
  Speaker 5: we have a balance that's it's still a great market
• 59:02
  Speaker 5: for sellers. They're still seeing strong prices, but it's a
• 59:06
  Speaker 5: little more reasonable and easier to catch the market, if
• 59:10
  Speaker 5: you will, if you're a buyer as well, and that's
• 59:13
  Speaker 5: resulting in great sales.
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: What data do you rely on or what people do
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: you rely on to help you set you know, the
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: initial prices. I look at some cars, you know, just
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: just from my experience as a kid who love, for example,
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: the Lamborghini Cuntosh or the Ferrari threeh eight, you know,
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: and there were times when they were going for twenty
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: five thousand dollars and then times when they were going
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: for two fifty and more. So, who do you rely
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: on or what do you rely on to get the
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: data to price these vehicles well?
• 59:51
  Speaker 5: As I'm sure you're aware, Miekam has been in this
• 59:54
  Speaker 5: business for thirty five years and we are the largest
• 59:57
  Speaker 5: collector car auction company in the world worlds selling roughly
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 5: fifteen thousand cars a year at live auction for a
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 5: little over eight hundred million dollars. So primarily we rely
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 5: on our own expertise and our own knowledge of the market.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 5: But all of the cars that come to our auction
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 5: are consigned cars. We're an auctioneer selling consignment cars for collectors,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 5: and collectors have an idea of their particular collection or
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 5: their particular car, what they believe that's worth, and of
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 5: course they keep abreast of the market for their particular
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 5: area of interest, and.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 13: We work with the collectors.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 5: We combine our expertise and their expectations to help them
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 5: understand what we think the pricing is in the current marketplace.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: David seems, you know when I spend a lot of
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: time in Carmel, and you know during car Week there'll
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: be people from all over the world, and a lot
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: of Italians in particular. Who comes to the Monterey Peninsula
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: here in August for all of these auctions, it seems
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: like it's a international affair.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 5: Yeah, will do sixteen auctions this year, and I would
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 5: say of those sixteen, three of them our national events.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 5: Most of them are more regional in scope Kassimi, Florida.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 5: Of course, the world's largest collector car auction in January
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 5: is a national and somewhat international event. Our second biggest
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 5: event in Indianapolis, Indiana in the Spring Classic in May,
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 5: again an international event, mostly national, but certainly not regional.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 5: Monterey is the one exception where I would say primarily
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 5: it is international. Of course, there are a lot of
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 5: US domestic buyers and sellers, but just folks that I
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 5: talked to over the last three or four days and
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 5: interviews that I've done from Germany, from France, from Italy,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 5: from Australia, from Great Britain.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 13: There are a lot of accidents at the auction.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: So is your market any predictor for the overall economy
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: because here on Global Wall Street, Dave, we've been talking
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: about a recession here for will more than a year.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: How does your market simply reflect what's going on in
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: the economy.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 5: Well, what we've seen, and this would go back to
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 5: I would say pre two thousand and eight even and
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 5: in some cases pre nineteen ninety one, when we had
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 5: significant issues in the economies before. What we've seen is
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 5: that the collector car market is relatively resilient and that's because,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 5: just antecdotally in my mind, when things are going very
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 5: very well, investors collectors feel very secure in their financial environment,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 5: very flushed with cash, if you will, and it's time
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 5: to maybe use some of that to invest.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 13: In something in a collector car, something that I've wanted
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 13: for a very, very long time.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 5: And conversely, when things are going very poorly, we see
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 5: a lot of money that comes out of the market
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 5: because of the uncertainty and the fear that's in the markets.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 5: And as money comes out of the market, that money
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 5: is looking for a home. And as I mentioned previously,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 5: the collector car market has been a great alternative investment
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 5: asset and you get to drive it on Sundays down
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 5: to meet your friends.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 13: So a lot of.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 5: Money we see come out of the market goes into
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 5: collector cars during that period. So we've I don't know
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 5: that we in the collector car business are an indicator
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 5: of what might be going on in the economy, and
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 5: I would certainly say we are relatively resilient to what
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 5: goes on in the economy.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: All Right, Dave, thanks for joining us. I know it's
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: been a busy, busy week. You just concluded out there
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: on the Monterey Peninsula and for those car people out
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: there who haven't been, it is a.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: Bucket list thing to do. It is a great week.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: They've major CEO of Meek Them Auctions. Thanks for listening
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: seventy three. And I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at Ptsweeney.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio