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Bitcoin Uptober Loading? Live w/ Benjamin Cowen · The Starting Block

0:07
Bye! Welcome back to The Starting
0:08
Block, and good morning to you,
0:10
wherever you're joining us from this
0:12
afternoon or this morning.
0:13
We are starting the show a little
0:15
bit later today because we managed
0:16
to get Ben Cowan on the show.
0:18
He is waiting for us in the
0:20
background. We're gonna run through
0:21
the usual format of the
0:23
show, if you're here for the first
0:24
time, welcome to The starting Block.
0:26
My name is Gareth Jenkinson, I'm
0:27
your host and head of multimedia
0:28
here at The Block.
0:30
If it is your first time here, let
0:31
me give you a quick rundown of how
0:33
we usually do things.
0:33
We start off with The Block
0:35
briefing, Which is our
0:37
highlight of the top news stories in
0:39
the last 24 hours that you might
0:41
have missed from the Blox News team.
0:43
So I'll be running down all the big
0:45
stories that you need to know
0:47
about. Then we usually have a
0:48
markets update, but we did quite an
0:50
in-depth one yesterday.
0:51
So we'll be skipping that today to
0:53
jump into an in depth,
0:55
full on market talk
0:57
with Benjamin Cowan from Into the
0:59
Cryptoverse. So really looking
1:00
forward to that.
1:01
But first things first, We'll give
1:02
you a quick rundown of the news and
1:03
let's. Jump straight into the
1:05
headlines today.
1:06
Bitcoin's under pressure this
1:07
morning, sliding towards $64,000
1:10
down more than 1%
1:12
after four failed attempts to break
1:13
above the 65,000 mark.
1:16
ETH is taking it harder, or for
1:17
almost 2% to around 88,000,
1:20
88.
1:21
And the whole market's holding its
1:23
breath for Wednesday's US inflation
1:24
report, the first major read since
1:26
last week.
1:27
Shock, jobs, miss, reshuffled
1:29
September 8 expectations.
1:31
Next shows Ilya Kalchev.
1:33
Says what stands to put out isn't
1:35
the failure to hold, but the
1:36
character of the stall itself.
1:38
So all eyes are now on that
1:40
CPI print.
1:42
Our next headline this morning, Riot
1:43
platforms jumped 25%
1:45
after hours on a blockbuster
1:47
AI deal.
1:48
The Bitcoin miner signed a 20-year
1:50
data center lease worth roughly $9.1
1:53
billion in total contract revenue,
1:56
covering 191 megawatts of
1:58
capacity at its Rockdale, Texas
2:00
campus. Running through 2048.
2:03
Two five-year extensions could push
2:05
that value to 16.1
2:07
billion.
2:08
Ryan, Riot lined up a
2:10
$573 million financing
2:12
facility from Morgan Stanley
2:14
to get started.
2:15
The company didn't name the tenant,
2:17
but Bloomberg reports it's
2:18
Anthropic, the AI lab behind
2:20
Claude, another mining giant leading
2:22
hard into the AI computer.
2:24
There was a lot of chatter
2:25
internally at the block around this
2:26
story. Obviously, Riot.
2:28
Household name in the Bitcoin mining
2:30
space now pivoting hard,
2:32
making a lot of money from the
2:34
AI boom.
2:36
Our next headline, trading platform
2:37
eToro is buying US brokerage
2:39
trade zero in a deal with up
2:41
to $231 million
2:43
cash plus up to two and a half
2:45
million newly issued shares.
2:47
Trade zero founded in 2015 caters
2:49
to active traders and pulled in
2:51
about $80 million in revenue over
2:53
the past year at 81%
2:55
gross margins.
2:56
EToro expects the deal to close
2:58
in the first half of 2027,
3:00
pending regulators and to lift its
3:02
adjusted earnings in its first full
3:04
year. CEO Yoni Assia
3:06
calls it an important step in
3:08
building the company's US business
3:09
and a faster path to new
3:12
products.
3:13
Then Coinbase is rolling out
3:14
derivatives for professional
3:15
investors in the UK, part of its
3:17
push towards what it calls an
3:18
everything exchange.
3:20
On the menu here is perpetuals,
3:21
dated futures and crypto options.
3:23
More than 170 contracts spanning
3:25
crypto, commodities, equities, and
3:27
foreign exchange.
3:28
Perpetuals trade around the clock
3:30
with leverage up to 50 times,
3:32
dated futures up to 20.
3:34
Options stay crypto only with
3:35
calls and puts and multi-leg
3:37
strategies.
3:38
Access rolls out to eligible UK
3:40
clients over the coming weeks.
3:41
It follows Coinbase's new MFID
3:44
license, which clears the way to
3:45
offer these contracts.
3:48
Then our next story, the crypto
3:49
industry lost roughly $110
3:52
million to hacks in July, according
3:53
to security platform, ImmunFi.
3:56
On the brighter side, confirmed and
3:58
paid bug bounty reports climbed 18%,
4:01
with researchers earning $2.3
4:03
million for valid bugs
4:06
that they found.
4:07
Immunfi also took aim at traditional
4:09
audits, its review of nearly 1,200
4:11
tier one audits found a medium of
4:13
zero critical or high severity bugs.
4:15
While its own audit competition
4:17
surfaced an average of 6.2
4:20
serious bugs per engagement.
4:22
And they found them cheaper too,
4:24
about $6,500
4:26
per critical bug
4:27
versus 66,000
4:30
in a private audit.
4:32
And lastly, here's an unusual one.
4:34
Michael Saylor's strategy actually
4:35
sold some Bitcoin.
4:36
The treasury giant offloaded 1,690
4:40
Bitcoin for around $108.6
4:43
million between August.
4:45
Third and the ninth at
4:47
an average price near $64,200.
4:50
That trims its stacks to 840,000.
4:52
Bitcoin's still a massive pile,
4:54
still worth roughly $54.7
4:57
billion.
4:58
Strategy also sold 6.5 million
5:00
shares for $653
5:02
million using the proceeds to
5:04
buy back preferred stock and top
5:06
up its dollar reserve to
5:08
$4.65 billion.
5:10
Its holdings remain around 4%
5:13
of all Bitcoin.
5:14
But carry some $8.7 billion
5:16
in paper losses.
5:18
That's it for the block briefing
5:19
this morning or afternoon, of
5:21
course, wherever you're joining us
5:22
from. We're gonna jump straight into
5:24
the hot seat today and it's a great
5:26
pleasure to welcome Ben Cowan
5:28
to the show.
5:29
If you've been in crypto a
5:31
while, you will know Ben Cowen from
5:33
into the crypto verse.
5:34
But if you haven't,
5:36
let's get Ben on and
5:38
start there for people that don't
5:40
know you out there.
5:41
Ben, first things first, thank you
5:43
so much for taking the time to join
5:44
us.
5:46
Yeah, just for the audience
5:48
that might not know who you are, can
5:49
you give us a quick TLDR of
5:51
your history before you got into
5:52
crypto and how you started
5:54
this fantastic journey that's
5:56
seen you stack up more than a
5:57
million followers on X and a million
5:59
subscribers on YouTube.
6:01
Sure. Yeah.
6:02
I started in
6:05
I mean, I started getting interested
6:07
in Bitcoin back in 2011.
6:09
So a really long time ago,
6:10
I wasn't buying it yet.
6:12
In 2011, I was in college.
6:14
I was my I
6:16
think my second semester,
6:19
maybe my first semester of
6:21
my junior year, second semester.
6:22
I can't remember exactly when it
6:23
was, but it was
6:25
my junior college, I was taking
6:27
a cryptography class.
6:29
I was studying mathematics, so
6:31
we had these electives we could
6:32
take, and I chose cryptography.
6:34
And then I got interested in
6:35
Bitcoin, I didn't have any money to
6:36
put into it, I wish I had back
6:38
then.
6:40
But then I really got into it
6:41
when I went to grad school.
6:43
So I went into grad school in 2013,
6:45
I did a PhD in nuclear engineering,
6:47
a lot of the students in the lab
6:49
were interested, fortunately,
6:52
in investing and blockchain.
6:53
And so that was kind
6:55
of how I got really I
6:58
really started to get into it.
6:59
And then after I
7:01
completed my PhD,
7:04
I then went and I did a postdoc at
7:06
a national lab, at Sandia
7:08
National Labs. And when I was at the
7:09
national lab like I was working on
7:12
a high energy density
7:14
physics, equation of state stuff.
7:16
And I went to this conference
7:19
in Portland, Oregon, this physics
7:20
conference, and I presented my
7:22
research in June
7:24
of 2019.
7:26
And right after I presented it, I
7:28
then went up to my hotel room.
7:29
And then I made my first, uh,
7:31
YouTube video.
7:33
Uh, and, and the, the rationale
7:35
for making it was basically just,
7:37
Hey, like, you know, I've made a ton
7:38
of mistakes, uh in
7:40
crypto and let me
7:43
try and see if I can help people,
7:44
uh avoid some of the mistakes that
7:46
I've made, but like that was, that
7:48
was kind of how I, how I came to be
7:49
here. And I mean, I, I did
7:51
the YouTube channel and worked,
7:53
uh you know full time job for a
7:55
couple of years.
7:56
But then I quit that in 2021 and
7:58
I've just been doing this full time
7:59
ever, ever since.
8:02
Best job in the world I can imagine.
8:03
I traded doing some sports
8:05
broadcasting for crypto and went
8:07
full time in 2022.
8:09
To be honest with you, I haven't
8:10
looked back since.
8:12
If my studio has anything to go by,
8:14
I'm a big Bitcoin proponent.
8:16
Just to keep it topical,
8:18
I don't know if you watched
8:20
with interest the BIP 110 debate
8:22
or anything like that, but I
8:24
did want to get a sense from you,
8:26
your general outlook for Bitcoin as
8:28
it stands right now, both from a
8:29
market's perspective.
8:30
A fundamentals perspective.
8:32
We've seen so many interesting
8:33
things happen with Bitcoin in recent
8:35
years. And I think more than
8:36
anything, the mainstreaming
8:38
of Bitcoin, which has been divisive
8:40
for hardcore Bitcoin maxis,
8:42
but more level-headed
8:44
sort of take so that this
8:46
is what everyone wanted for a very
8:48
long time and it's playing out now
8:49
and we don't really get to choose
8:51
who uses Bitcoin and how.
8:54
But yeah, what's your general take
8:55
on the state of Bitcoin
8:57
as it were? I mean like
8:59
It's a difficult market.
9:00
It's been a difficult market for a
9:01
long time, especially for the
9:03
rest of the crypto market.
9:04
I mean, Bitcoin is arguably one
9:06
of the few things that has done
9:08
anything in
9:10
terms of going up for the last, I
9:11
mean obviously recently it's gone
9:13
down. But if you look at say the
9:15
last like four years or so most
9:16
cryptocurrencies are actually below
9:18
their 2022 lows right
9:20
now, rather than
9:22
near their 2021 highs.
9:24
So, you know, it's tough for
9:25
Bitcoin. If you throw up my screen
9:27
here, Um, this chart,
9:29
it actually shows the, the
9:31
ROI of Bitcoin as measured
9:33
from the low.
9:35
And I mean, this one takes you
9:36
from the load to the next low.
9:39
And what you can see, I don't
9:41
know if you guys can see the screen,
9:43
but essentially Bitcoin topped
9:45
on a day
9:47
like 1050 something.
9:49
Yeah. Like this purple line, it tops
9:51
on day like 1,050 something you
9:53
can see the cycle for that one
9:54
topped on day. Like.
9:55
1060 or so, the cycle for that
9:57
was like 1070, a
9:59
little bit before that.
10:01
And so every single cycle, as
10:03
measured from the low, has basically
10:04
topped around the same time.
10:07
The main difference this cycle is
10:09
that we did not have a rotation into
10:11
higher risk assets.
10:11
And the reason we didn't have a
10:13
higher rotation or a rotation in a
10:15
higher risk assets is because
10:16
Bitcoin never had a euphoria phase.
10:18
Right. Like the euphoria phase that
10:20
normally accompanies the end of full
10:21
markets did not actually
10:23
happen. You could argue that in
10:25
order for that to have happened,
10:27
Bitcoin would have had to go to
10:28
$200,000 by the end of 2025.
10:31
But it didn't.
10:32
And I think the reason it didn't if
10:33
you need one is probably related
10:35
to, to monetary policy
10:37
in a lot of ways, because
10:39
while structurally it's very similar
10:42
to the 2018 cycle,
10:43
like if you look at the year-to-date
10:45
ROI of Bitcoin in 2026
10:47
and compare that to 2018, I mean.
10:49
This is just a less volatile version
10:51
of 2018.
10:51
The lows align, the lower highs
10:53
align, it all more or less aligns.
10:56
So I think what's happening is that
10:58
in 2019,
11:02
Bitcoin topped two months
11:03
before quantitative tightening
11:05
ended.
11:06
And so Bitcoin topped in June and
11:07
then QT ended in August.
11:08
And then this cycle, it was the same
11:10
thing. It's just QT, ended in
11:11
December. Bitcoin topped it in
11:12
October. And by the way, there was
11:14
no rotation into higher risk assets,
11:16
right? We did not get the rotation
11:17
into altcoins.
11:19
Just like 2019 and
11:21
I know a lot of people have a hard
11:22
time saying that like 2025 and
11:24
2019 were similar types of tops but
11:26
they both topped on apathy
11:28
right where there was relatively
11:29
little interest in the crypto
11:30
markets we even track like
11:32
I can have a really cool chart here
11:34
people can look at where you're
11:36
looking at like the collective views
11:38
on YouTube the various crypto
11:40
YouTube channels and when you look
11:42
at, where it is today compared to
11:43
where it was in 2021.
11:45
I mean, it's like a world of
11:46
difference, right? Like this is
11:47
completely different.
11:48
Than 2021, it's
11:50
really low, kind of like it was
11:52
back in the 2018, 2019
11:54
era, when, oh, by the way, we
11:56
also topped on apathy and we did not
11:58
get that rotation.
11:59
So that's essentially where Bitcoin
12:00
is from a technical perspective.
12:02
If you look at how Bitcoin normally
12:04
bottoms out, it normally finds
12:07
a low sometime kind of
12:09
like later in the midterm year.
12:10
So arguably, we're potentially
12:12
setting up for that, like maybe one
12:14
more drop.
12:14
We form the market cycle bottom, and
12:16
then hopefully we can get back in
12:18
business with the next bull market,
12:19
ideally going into 2027.
12:23
That was my general read
12:25
and a lot of more
12:27
knowledgeable market analysts have
12:29
been telling me that they expect
12:30
us to actually find a
12:33
proper cycle low in October.
12:36
I wanted to ask you if you
12:38
agree with that sentiment or is
12:40
it harder than that to actually pin
12:41
down when?
12:43
If we all had a crystal ball, we'd
12:44
be rich and no one
12:46
has all those answers, but how
12:48
do you anticipate this playing out
12:50
to the end of 2026?
12:52
So if you look at all the prior bear
12:53
market bottoms for Bitcoin,
12:55
like in 2015, or sorry, the 2014
12:57
bear market didn't actually bottom
12:58
until January of the following year,
13:00
the next bear market ended in
13:02
December, the next one was November.
13:04
The last two bear markets lasted
13:05
about one year.
13:06
So we saw November to November
13:08
from 2021 to 2022.
13:10
In 2017 to 2018, it was December
13:12
to December.
13:13
So you can kind of see where people
13:15
are getting October from because
13:16
Bitcoin topped in October.
13:17
So about a year long bear market
13:19
would put the next low approximately
13:21
in.
13:22
October in 2022, we also
13:24
saw the stock market find a low in
13:27
October, right?
13:28
So there's a lot of things that
13:29
that, you know, can often happen
13:31
in October.
13:33
But I wouldn't like I wouldn't
13:35
t marry that single month and say
13:37
that it has to be then I would argue
13:39
that it's sort of like a
13:40
distribution.
13:41
So if you were to have like a chart
13:43
as to like win Bitcoin bottoms
13:45
and you have sort of, like the
13:46
months where like you say this is,
13:48
you know, this is when it's going to
13:49
be.
13:50
And you start off with say,
13:52
like, you know, July and
13:54
then you go August, September,
13:58
October, November,
14:00
December.
14:03
I don't know why I drew a V there,
14:05
but December and
14:07
then January.
14:10
Then.
14:11
I would argue that it would probably
14:12
look something like this where, you
14:14
know, there's a chance the low has
14:16
already occurred but I would argue
14:18
that you know if you're looking like
14:19
a sort of like a normal distribution
14:20
you're Probably looking at something
14:22
like that where like the most
14:24
likely time for a low would
14:26
probably october But that doesn't
14:28
mean it can't happen in like late
14:30
september It also doesn't means it
14:32
can happen until maybe it doesn't
14:33
happen until december You know, I
14:35
mean in 2018 the the
14:37
bottom didn't occur until dezembr
14:39
And structurally, we've been
14:40
following 2018 pretty closely
14:42
so far.
14:44
And what I mean by that is if you
14:46
look at the lows
14:47
in 2018, they were at 6,000.
14:50
This cycle has been at 60,000,
14:52
so just 10x higher.
14:53
And the lows occurred at the same
14:55
time, right? You had a low in
14:56
February, a higher low in late
14:58
March, early April, a lower low
15:00
in June, July.
15:01
The same thing's happened here,
15:02
right, a low in February higher low
15:03
and late March early April.
15:05
A lower low and June, LIE!
15:06
You know, if it does play out the
15:08
same way, then yeah, like it's
15:10
possible that it takes until
15:11
November for the next
15:13
move down to occur, I don't know.
15:15
But I would argue that October
15:17
is the most likely time, but you
15:19
have to give like, you know,
15:21
some probability to it happening
15:23
other months.
15:24
I would say that if you had to pick
15:26
a single month, the highest
15:27
probability, it would be October.
15:29
But if you take the combined
15:30
probability of all the other months,
15:33
it might be equivalent to the
15:34
probability of it being in October,
15:36
if that makes sense.
15:38
It does make sense when it comes
15:40
to doing this analysis.
15:41
Obviously a lot has changed over the
15:42
years. And I think if we look back
15:44
at these previous cycles, I
15:46
started covering the industry kind
15:48
of midway through 2017.
15:49
So, you know, I experienced the
15:51
euphoria of the 2017
15:53
bull run up to 20,000
15:55
and then the crash, you now into
15:56
2018.
15:58
But, you there was a lot of retail
16:00
interest then like really, you the
16:01
Google searches were popping off.
16:03
I'm sure, you YouTube channels were
16:05
popping off and it was very
16:06
interesting for you to show that.
16:07
That previous chart showing
16:10
the difference between YouTube
16:12
viewership and interest in certain
16:13
topics.
16:15
When you're doing your analysis now,
16:16
as opposed to three, four years ago,
16:19
considering the amount of
16:20
institutional interest, has that
16:22
changed some of the fundamentals you
16:24
look at when you're trying to do
16:26
this proper fundamental technical
16:28
analysis?
16:29
I don't really put a lot of
16:31
weight into that stuff.
16:32
I mean, I think to some degree, you
16:34
would argue that like,
16:36
as Bitcoin grows, it's
16:38
going to naturally attract bigger
16:39
players.
16:41
And so you're going to
16:43
have institutions interested.
16:45
I don't really think that,
16:47
like it has to be that
16:49
like, oh, it's different now.
16:51
I think.
16:52
I think from like a business cycle
16:54
perspective, it feels a lot
16:56
like 2019, 2020,
16:58
early, like late 2019, early 2020
17:00
to me is kind of what it feels like.
17:04
And I think that,
17:06
I mean, even recently,
17:08
we've actually seen the ETF
17:10
holdings have been dropping, right
17:12
over the last few months.
17:13
So what was previously a
17:15
tailwind has actually become a
17:16
headwind in 2026.
17:19
So I think it's a narrative for
17:21
sure that we could latch on to,
17:24
but at the end of the day, I'm a
17:25
big believer in that narrative
17:27
follows price and, you know,
17:30
Bitcoin, I know this is
17:32
like maybe a controversial
17:35
view, but I
17:37
actually preferred Bitcoin before
17:39
all these large
17:41
players got involved, like before
17:43
the governments were interested in
17:45
Bitcoin. Because if you think about
17:46
it, ever since the government's
17:47
really started focusing in on
17:48
Bitcoin, Bitcoin hasn't really gone
17:50
anywhere. I mean, we're trading the
17:51
time of this video. We're trading at
17:53
sixty three thousand dollars.
17:54
We were trading at 63 thousand
17:56
dollars, you know, back in twenty
17:58
twenty one.
17:59
Right. And if you if you look at the
18:00
if you look at evaluation of Bitcoin
18:01
against the S&P 500,
18:03
we are trading at where we were in
18:05
2020.
18:07
So, you to a large to
18:09
some degree, I
18:11
I really preferred Bitcoin.
18:13
Before all this stuff, think about
18:15
it like this,
18:17
Bitcoin essentially went to 60K
18:19
without all this hype, right?
18:21
From like the institutions and all
18:23
that stuff. I mean, yes, Sailor
18:24
first started buying in late 2020,
18:27
but Bitcoin was already like, it was
18:28
already in business back then.
18:30
I mean the Fed was printing like $6
18:31
trillion. I mean there was tons of
18:33
money being printed.
18:34
It was already at a bull market.
18:36
Even if Sailor hadn't bought in late
18:37
20, I still think Bitcoin would have
18:39
had a really great bull market, you
18:40
know, going into 2021.
18:42
So...
18:43
I think that
18:45
those narratives,
18:48
honestly, if anything, they've been
18:49
a headwind for Bitcoin.
18:52
And one of the things about going
18:54
through what we're going through
18:55
right now in terms of
18:58
interest in crypto, like retail
18:59
interest has died off, it
19:01
almost makes it so that
19:03
perhaps Bitcoin is going to get
19:05
maybe less attention from
19:07
these players, which I think would
19:08
be a bullish thing, as
19:10
crazy as that sounds.
19:11
Like, I mean.
19:12
I know that like the narrative is
19:14
that like, you know, like ETFs
19:16
are good, but,
19:19
but arguably two things.
19:21
First of all, when thematic
19:23
ETFs are launched they're normally
19:25
launched near the end of bull
19:27
markets, not at the beginning of
19:28
them because it takes a
19:30
long bull market to get
19:32
people interested enough to then,
19:34
you know, have the interest to even
19:35
launch the ETF in the first place.
19:39
And then also thematic ETFs
19:41
also underperform the market.
19:42
Like the S&P, especially for the
19:44
first few years after they're
19:45
launched.
19:46
So like what you're seeing right now
19:48
happening with Bitcoin after the ETF
19:50
launch is basically what happens
19:51
with every industry after the ETS
19:53
launch. I mean look at the QQQ when
19:55
the Q QQ launched it
19:57
went up for a year and then
19:59
underperformed the market for years
20:00
but I mean now look at QQ Q.
20:02
I means tech is crazy and you
20:04
know so I mean eventually Bitcoin
20:05
will get back to that point But I
20:07
think that I think a lot
20:09
of these things you know, have
20:11
not necessarily been the tailwind
20:13
that people thought they were going
20:14
to be.
20:16
Because I have to imagine that if,
20:18
you know when the ETFs were launched
20:20
back in, you know, back in 2024,
20:22
had you told people that Bitcoin
20:24
would still be trading at 60k,
20:26
they would probably not look at that
20:28
as an overwhelming success.
20:30
Right?
20:31
So I think There's the narrative,
20:33
but in reality,
20:35
ETFs are antithetical to Bitcoin,
20:38
right? If you want to buy Bitcoin,
20:41
you want to own your keys,
20:43
but it's almost like
20:45
we have an identity problem right
20:46
now because there's a lot of people
20:47
that did that.
20:48
And then they had the, you know,
20:49
they went with a, we just had
20:51
this, this hat, right, cold card.
20:54
And so that's called, it's kind of
20:55
like an identity crisis to some
20:56
degree of like, well, you have these
20:58
people that did what they thought
21:00
was the right thing.
21:00
What they thought was the right
21:01
thing and they still lost money.
21:03
And, and in that case, that
21:05
wasn't a failure of Bitcoin.
21:07
Right. That was more of a third
21:08
party issue, but the problem
21:10
is like, good luck convincing
21:12
everyday people of
21:14
that, right? Like good luck,
21:15
convincing that it's not just a
21:17
Bitcoin problem.
21:18
And I think that's kind of the main
21:19
barrier that we have right now.
21:21
And, and so, you know, I think we
21:23
just need a little bit more time.
21:25
Also the last thing, cause I can
21:26
ramble forever, but The last thing
21:28
I'm.
21:28
Nice, Greg.
21:28
Last thing I would say is that in
21:30
this last cycle, I think the
21:31
industry lost its way because we
21:33
only focused on how to get more
21:35
money into the industry.
21:36
Like we focused on ETS, we focused
21:37
on strategic Bitcoin reserves, and
21:39
then the only things that did really
21:41
well for very, very brief periods
21:43
of time were like the micro cap
21:45
meme coins, right?
21:46
And everything else in crypto just
21:48
kind of like died out because no one
21:50
cared about it anymore.
21:51
And then the meme coins eventually
21:52
they're now dying out because people
21:54
are like, okay, they're just scams.
21:56
And I think.
21:57
We're going through sort of this
21:59
painful, maturing process as
22:01
an industry, because for the
22:03
industry to grow and to
22:05
become like what, you know,
22:07
probably what you and I think it can
22:08
eventually become, you have
22:10
to go through periods like this
22:12
where people realize, hey,
22:14
we had this massive mal-investment
22:16
of capital for years, and
22:18
now we need to actually invest it in
22:19
a proper way.
22:20
And I think that that process is
22:22
just a multi-year process, and
22:24
it's been going on, arguably,
22:26
since 2021, because again,
22:28
when you look at social interest,
22:30
it's been trending down since 2021.
22:32
I have one more interesting chart
22:33
really quick to show.
22:36
This is the if
22:38
you look at the advanced decline
22:39
index of the top 100
22:41
cryptocurrencies, this basically
22:42
shows you, you know,
22:44
the ADI is something that's used
22:46
in the stock market a lot.
22:49
And the point is to figure out like,
22:50
is the is the index going up?
22:53
Because everything is going up.
22:55
Or is it going up because one
22:58
or two assets are lifting it, right?
23:00
Now look at 2020 and 2021.
23:03
This orange line, the advanced
23:05
decline index of the top 100
23:06
cryptos, it was going up.
23:08
So like everything was going out
23:10
basically.
23:11
You could, any investor out there
23:12
could take a dart and throw it on a
23:13
board and just go buy whatever it
23:15
landed on. And they're probably going
23:16
to make money, right.
23:17
But ever since 2021,
23:20
this has been trending down.
23:21
So the reason we even had a bull
23:23
market last cycle.
23:24
Was because of Bitcoin, because
23:26
a lot of the rest of the market was
23:28
actually just trending down.
23:30
And I think it makes sense because,
23:31
you know, they go on to YouTube,
23:33
they go on Twitter, the things that
23:34
were getting the most attention were
23:37
all these things that didn't really
23:38
matter. Right.
23:39
And now we're paying the price and
23:41
it's hard and it and we did the same
23:43
thing in 2019.
23:44
The only difference between this
23:45
cycle in 2019 is that
23:48
the 2019 top,
23:50
like the top that we had in 2019
23:53
was not the four-year cycle top,
23:55
right?
23:56
So we had this 2019 top, but
23:58
it's not the for your cycle top.
24:00
This time it was the four year
24:02
cycle top so the argument that I'm
24:03
making is that the
24:05
post apathetic top digestion
24:08
phase we had in 2019 just
24:10
happens to align up with
24:12
the 2026 bear market and then
24:14
the four years cycle ends up winning
24:16
again.
24:17
Yeah, that was a really great riff
24:19
by the way and I think like a lot
24:21
of the things you said resonated
24:22
with me and we've been hearing it a
24:24
lot from people in the industry.
24:25
I mean, I hate to talk about apathy
24:27
and I don't want to be a doomer but
24:28
I think that there's a lot people in
24:30
industry right now that are kind of
24:32
thinking like, what's going to
24:34
happen from here?
24:34
You know, and I like even just the
24:37
entire Bitcoin thing right now, you
24:38
know, like the cold card hack.
24:40
As you mentioned, everyone did
24:41
everything right and it wasn't a
24:43
failing of the Bitcoin protocol, but
24:45
it's you know, like my parents are
24:46
gonna come and stay with me in a
24:47
couple of days time.
24:48
And I'm sure that's the first thing
24:49
they're gonna ask me about.
24:50
And then I have to explain to them
24:51
that no, it was actually an
24:53
issue with a random number generator
24:55
that cold card users were
24:57
using to generate their seed.
24:58
And it's just as long convoluted
25:01
explanation that will go over most
25:03
people's heads.
25:04
And then they're kind of like, well,
25:05
I thought I was supposed to hold my
25:06
Bitcoin. That's the point.
25:08
I still fundamentally believe that.
25:09
I've seen guys like British HODL
25:11
saying like, put all your.
25:13
Put all your money into Bitcoin ETS,
25:15
forget about holding Bitcoin
25:17
yourself. I fundamentally don't
25:18
believe that.
25:19
I still think Bitcoin is money.
25:21
It's a great store of value.
25:22
It's still going through price
25:23
discovery and you should be
25:25
in control of your keys and be in
25:27
your control of money. That's the
25:27
whole point. It's censorship
25:29
resistant money.
25:30
So I want it to be that, but we're
25:32
definitely going through a crazy,
25:35
like just a crazy time.
25:36
And I don't know how much you've
25:37
been paying attention to like the
25:38
Bitcoin Red team,
25:40
the guys at Anchor Watch and a
25:42
couple of other.
25:43
The prominent Bitcoin is putting
25:45
a huge amount of time and effort and
25:46
money basically using Kimi
25:48
AI to go and vet all
25:51
the open source Bitcoin code out
25:53
there and then point out big
25:55
vulnerabilities to all the teams
25:56
that are building in Bitcoin in an
25:58
effort to just make sure that we
25:59
don't have anything like the cold
26:00
card exploit happen again.
26:02
And that's the links that people
26:04
that are interested in Bitcoin still
26:06
reaching its purpose are
26:08
willing to go to, pay for
26:10
it themselves to make sure that the
26:12
movement stays alive.
26:13
And my next question
26:15
to you is like, do you ever
26:16
anticipate the retail interest
26:18
of prior years coming back?
26:20
And I mean, you're someone who's
26:21
pretty plugged into a big community
26:22
of people that respect your takes
26:24
or respect your outlook on the
26:26
markets, everything that you've
26:28
built with your company.
26:29
Do you think retail comes back or
26:31
is it over?
26:33
I think it will eventually come
26:34
back. Yeah, I mean, again,
26:36
from a business cycle perspective,
26:39
everything is that's playing out now
26:40
played out from 2018 to 2019.
26:43
The main difference is this is a
26:45
larger version of that, right?
26:47
So if you throw up my screen here,
26:49
and you look at if you were to
26:51
overlay interest rates, and if you
26:52
are to overlay the
26:55
balance sheet of the Federal Reserve,
26:57
not that you need all this stuff to
26:59
like understand what's going on.
27:00
But if you if you wanted
27:02
a story to tell.
27:03
You know, you can see back
27:05
in, you know, 28 between 2019
27:07
We had we were going through
27:08
quantitative tightening and the Fed
27:10
was raising rates, right now look
27:12
at what we just went through Right.
27:13
We've been we went through
27:14
quantitative tightning a lot longer
27:15
and then the Fed raised rates a lot
27:17
higher So this whole
27:19
thing right here in 2018 2019
27:21
is this the smaller version of what
27:23
we basically experience from like
27:25
2022 through 2026
27:27
and and so the argument is that
27:29
like People are losing
27:31
faith because this is going on
27:33
longer than they thought it would
27:34
but the reason it's going on Longer
27:36
than they've thought it Would is
27:37
because monetary policy remains
27:39
restrictive for far longer
27:40
than They thought it Would and the
27:42
argument for why that happened was
27:44
because for the first time with the
27:46
exception of the pandemic in
27:47
bitcoins history We've actually had
27:49
to worry a little bit about the
27:50
macro right like the unemployment
27:51
rate the inflation rate That's not
27:53
has been that hasn't been as well
27:54
behaved as it has been in prior
27:57
in in prior cycles And
27:59
so perhaps that's the reason why
28:01
this has taken on this has gone on
28:03
longer and longer and longer.
28:04
But I do think I do you think retail
28:06
will eventually return.
28:07
But, you know, it's hard for them to
28:08
return when inflation is eating
28:10
their their finances alive.
28:12
Like, I mean, it is hard.
28:14
It's hard adjusting to like going to
28:15
the grocery store and spending
28:17
two to three times what you would
28:19
spend in 2019, you
28:21
for basically the same thing.
28:22
That's a hard adjustment.
28:24
And it makes it so that people have
28:25
less disposable income.
28:26
To then invest in higher risk
28:28
assets, right? I mean, that's just
28:29
the way the world works.
28:32
I do think it will return, but
28:35
you know, if you look at, there's
28:36
the social metric here, social risk,
28:39
we're currently at around 0.2
28:41
risk.
28:43
And if you look at 2020-22,
28:46
the same time in 2022 in August,
28:48
we were actually at like 0.5.
28:50
So what's remarkable is we
28:52
had way more retail interest in
28:54
2022 than we have
28:56
in 2026.
28:57
But if you go to the cycle before
28:59
that, 2018
29:01
in August social interest
29:03
was also 0.2.
29:05
So again, we've been here
29:07
before. We've been in this position
29:09
before.
29:10
And we can see that
29:12
retail interest, it did come
29:14
back. And I think it
29:16
will come back, but it's
29:18
coming back on a different timeline
29:20
than what people think.
29:21
And also the
29:23
warning that I gave people five
29:25
years ago as it relates to altcoins
29:26
is like, guys, look, you're gonna be
29:28
better off with Bitcoin over
29:30
altcoins because whenever
29:32
retail interest does come back
29:35
the things that people are gonna
29:36
care about are probably way
29:37
different than the things they care
29:38
about in 2020 coin.
29:40
They're going to be chasing another
29:41
narrative, whether it
29:43
be AI or whatever the future
29:45
narrative might be, who knows what
29:47
it is.
29:48
But I think it will come back, but
29:50
you're just going to have to have
29:51
more time. And it's very unlikely to
29:52
come back this year.
29:53
This year is just a reset year,
29:56
not only for Bitcoin, but also for
29:58
metals as well.
29:59
It's been a reset here.
30:00
The stock market has gone on to new
30:02
all-time highs, but so what?
30:03
I mean, it went to new all-time
30:04
highs.
30:05
In 2018 as well.
30:07
I think it went to new all-time highs,
30:07
I believe, in 2014 as well, even
30:09
though Bitcoin continued on in the
30:10
bear market.
30:11
And by the way, what normally
30:13
happens is
30:16
that Bitcoin puts in its market
30:17
cycle bottom when you get that
30:19
second correction in the stock
30:20
market. So in 2014, 2018,
30:22
and 2022, we had a correction
30:24
in stocks at the very beginning of
30:25
the year that corresponded with
30:27
Bitcoin's first big drop.
30:28
And then there was another
30:29
correction in stocks starting in
30:31
August or September.
30:33
In those three midterm years and
30:35
so the argument is that all
30:37
right well if stocks go through this
30:38
similar correction like
30:40
if you look at the end of
30:43
2014, the end,
30:45
of 2018 and then
30:47
of course the end of 2022 you can
30:49
see that the stock market had these
30:50
corrections if you get that one more
30:51
time that likely corresponds to the
30:53
market cycle bottom for bitcoin
30:55
and then hopefully we can start
30:56
thinking about getting retail
30:58
interest to come back but it's not
30:59
going to come this year.
31:00
I don't think.
31:02
Yeah, unfortunately, I don't think
31:04
so either.
31:05
Obviously on your channel, you've
31:06
been doing a fair amount of videos
31:08
on, like you said, precious metals,
31:10
gold. I'm curious if you have any
31:12
strong opinions or thoughts on
31:15
the overall AI trade, because I
31:17
think there's been general consensus
31:18
that the boom in
31:20
AI, the sector, and the
31:22
fundraising and everything has just
31:23
sucked a load of liquidity out of,
31:26
especially Bitcoin and the
31:28
broader crypto markets.
31:29
Do you share that sentiment?
31:30
And do you think that that's also?
31:32
Some sort of a bubble waiting to
31:34
pop.
31:35
I mean, to some degree, yeah, but
31:36
I mean no one knows when it's going
31:37
to happen.
31:38
And, and, you know, the, the
31:40
question we have to ask ourselves
31:41
is, is does AI lead
31:43
to profitability quick
31:45
enough to justify the valuations,
31:47
right?
31:48
Like, I mean with the internet,
31:50
I means the internet we couldn't
31:51
even be having this interview
31:52
without the internet.
31:53
Right. Um, it completely changed
31:55
the world, but yet we still had a
31:57
bear market following the, following
31:59
the internet boom.
32:00
Thank you.
32:02
That doesn't mean that you have to
32:03
have one nearly as bad following the
32:05
AI boom, but there's also no
32:06
guarantee. I mean, how long is this
32:07
going to go on for?
32:08
When, when, when the dot com bubble
32:10
happens, they cut rates and then
32:11
they had to like raise rates like
32:13
seven times after
32:15
the initial rate hiking cycle, so
32:16
they had the initial right hiking
32:17
cycle, then they cut rate.
32:19
Eventually they raise rates again.
32:20
They had to raise rates, like a
32:21
hundred something basis points
32:22
again, seven times, um,
32:25
for it to actually pop the bubble.
32:26
So, you know, yeah, like
32:28
it'll probably eventually pop.
32:31
But I don't think it's gonna pop
32:33
before Open AI
32:35
has their IPO, you know
32:38
It's probably you know, you're
32:40
probably gonna have a correction in
32:41
stocks soon.
32:42
I would say 10 to 20 percent
32:44
would be my guess Probably
32:46
doesn't start until September.
32:48
Maybe it could start in August, but
32:50
probably not until September Maybe
32:51
around the next Fed meeting is
32:53
likely when I would if I did guess
32:55
as to when it would start
32:57
So yeah, I think technology
32:59
absolutely influences the cycles
33:01
because the reality is
33:03
crypto has
33:05
existed under the same macro
33:06
conditions that AI has
33:08
existed under, but yet AI
33:10
did fine, right?
33:12
Why did AI do fine?
33:14
Because everyone wants to use it,
33:16
right. I use AI,
33:19
I'm guessing you use AI.
33:21
I mean, my developers that I
33:23
have, I want them to use AI
33:25
to help them you know, develop the
33:27
website that we're working on.
33:28
I want, I mean, AI makes
33:31
our lives easier and
33:33
I spend money on
33:35
AI, right?
33:36
Because I find it
33:38
to be an essential thing
33:40
to, you know to grow
33:42
a lot of these businesses and
33:44
to help you figure out like how you
33:46
can, you know what you can do to
33:47
improve.
33:48
The issue is that like the average
33:50
person doesn't think they need
33:52
crypto, right.
33:53
Because if the average person...
33:56
Came to crypto in 2024 and
33:59
got rugs on a Solana meme coin.
34:02
Why? How are they going to think
34:03
they need crypto, right?
34:04
They're not. They're going to
34:06
they're going into equate that with
34:08
everything else in the industry and
34:10
think that it's all just a scam.
34:12
And there's nothing we can do
34:15
necessarily to,
34:17
you know, to to change
34:19
that in the short term.
34:20
It's just time like we have to go
34:21
through time where people kind
34:23
of are willing to move on
34:25
from that stuff. But in the short
34:26
term, people are tired of being
34:28
rugged, they're tired of all that
34:29
stuff, and you could argue the
34:30
reason why crypto has struggled way
34:32
more than AI is because AI
34:35
was giving the average person
34:37
a reason to
34:39
want it. Whereas I feel like crypto
34:41
hasn't really given people that
34:43
reason.
34:44
The thing that people were chasing
34:45
were just things that enrich
34:47
the founders, right?
34:48
Like just meme coins and stuff.
34:49
That just enriches the founders.
34:51
It does nothing.
34:52
For the person buying it except
34:53
makes them lose all their money.
34:56
Yeah, I mean, I have my fundamental
34:59
qualms with meme coins.
35:00
You know, like I enjoy the
35:03
influence of people like Ansem, but
35:05
I genuinely, you know, I
35:07
don't want to
35:09
bluff people or, you
35:11
know say things that just aren't
35:12
true. And I mean there's no
35:13
fundamental value in these things as
35:15
much as you can talk about attention
35:17
economies and bringing people into
35:19
the industry, that kind of thing.
35:20
I think it's like
35:23
a zero-sum game, and...
35:25
They will trade to zero
35:27
eventually, like nothing's gonna
35:29
keep these tokens alive in value.
35:31
Unfortunately. And eventually.
35:31
Right and eventually and eventually
35:32
you run out of people to sell this
35:34
idea too right like if like
35:36
there's only so many times you can
35:38
rug people before they are like
35:40
you know what maybe i don't want to
35:41
be here right and maybe i
35:43
dont want to keep investing in this
35:45
maybe i would be better off just
35:46
putting it in the stock market right
35:48
so there's just only so much times
35:50
and i i like i have no problem
35:52
saying it i think everyone who's
35:53
promoting meme coins has done
35:55
a complete as a service to the
35:56
industry.
35:57
Meme coins do not bring people to
35:59
bitcoin in my opinion, they
36:00
basically push people away from the
36:02
industry because a lot of people
36:03
actually join crypto because
36:05
of during a bitcoin parabolic rally
36:07
that if you look at all the major
36:09
social interest spikes in the past,
36:11
it was during parabolic rallies
36:13
by bitcoin and then
36:15
what happens is that people come
36:17
in and then everyone promotes
36:19
like all these other coins and
36:21
then so people then start buying
36:22
that and then we have a bitcoin bear
36:23
market but the reality
36:25
is that A lot of people
36:27
lose a lot of money in
36:29
the meme coin market, and then they
36:31
don't then go to Bitcoin, they just
36:33
leave.
36:34
So I would say as an industry,
36:35
we just need to get our act
36:36
together. We need to focus on what
36:38
actually matters and start
36:40
and continue, we've already been
36:41
doing it, but continue to rebuke the
36:43
stuff that does not and
36:45
to not lift up the influencers
36:47
who do like
36:50
promote that stuff.
36:50
Because the people that promote
36:51
that, they're just leading people
36:53
astray, you know, Maybe in the short
36:55
term.
36:56
You could have bounces in the market
36:57
that make those people feel like
36:58
they did a good thing by buying that
37:00
that stuff.
37:01
But a year or two later,
37:03
they look back and like, why did I
37:04
buy that?
37:05
Right. And so I think
37:07
the industry needs to rebuke
37:09
that stuff and to lift up the people
37:11
that are doing the right thing. Like you
37:12
mentioned earlier, right.
37:14
There was a team going and looking
37:15
at at vulnerabilities in
37:17
in the industry.
37:18
Right? Like we should the industry
37:20
should be more so focused on that.
37:22
Like, hey, like, lift these guys up,
37:23
like lift the guys up that are
37:25
trying to improve the industry
37:27
for everyone else.
37:28
Don't lift the guy's up that
37:30
are just trying to like, you
37:32
know,
37:34
you know that are just doing it.
37:36
Yeah, they're just doing pump
37:38
and dumps. They're doing it for
37:39
attention. They're doing it further
37:40
ego, whatever.
37:42
Don't lift those guys up.
37:43
And I think the the market.
37:46
Is is is we're kind of at the
37:47
point where the market is rebuking
37:49
all this other stuff but for
37:51
the new people that join like don't
37:53
fall into that stuff because you
37:54
fall into it you're stuck there for
37:56
probably at least one to two years
37:57
before you come to your senses and
37:59
come out of it
38:00
Yeah, exactly.
38:01
I mean, I just put this on my
38:03
ex profile for anyone that
38:05
wants to go and see and look back at
38:06
it at gaza underscore
38:08
jinx on ex if you're watching us on
38:10
Twitter and you don't follow me.
38:12
Like two, three years ago,
38:14
I was at the World Economic Forum in
38:16
Davos and it was like the first time
38:18
that they had a panel on crypto.
38:20
Brian Armstrong was on it, Anthony
38:21
Scaramucci,
38:24
Denal Dixon from Stellar,
38:26
Jenny Johnson from Franklin
38:27
Templeton as well and then South
38:28
Africa's Reserve Bank Governor.
38:30
And it was like two days after Trump
38:32
had launched the meme coin.
38:33
And just as he was about to be, you
38:35
know, inaugurated and I managed to
38:37
ask a question to Brian from the
38:38
floor, kind of saying, you know,
38:39
like Trump's gone and launched this
38:40
meme coin is he's diverted all
38:42
this capital and attention away from
38:44
that. Meanwhile, like people that
38:45
actually care about the industry
38:47
were pushing so hard for a Bitcoin
38:48
reserve. Do you think it undermines
38:50
it?
38:51
And, uh, Brian gave a really
38:52
eloquent response, but he didn't
38:54
quite call out like
38:56
what I was also trying to get him to
38:58
call out. And like.
38:59
Know Trump's meme coin, it's going
39:00
to be a black mark on the industry
39:02
and you can already see you know the
39:03
sharks are circling about this
39:05
already again you know like big
39:06
exposes I think are being written
39:08
and the amount of losses
39:09
that you know people
39:11
incurred by buying Trump's meme coin
39:13
thinking they were going to get rich
39:14
from it.
39:15
Isn't it down like 90 something
39:16
percent now?
39:17
I mean, it's like, and the Melania
39:19
coin too. I mean like we don't, the
39:21
industry doesn't need to pretend
39:22
like those things were good things.
39:23
They were not, they were simply cash
39:25
grabs. That's all they were.
39:27
And that's all the ever were.
39:29
I mean they were never going to ever
39:30
be anything other than that.
39:32
And so, you know, I guess it's
39:33
hard like, you know, if you have a
39:35
business and that business can be
39:36
very dependent on, you know,
39:39
political favoring and whatnot.
39:41
So like I guess I'm not going to sit
39:42
there and be like, well, if I'd been
39:43
up there I would have.
39:44
Says something different, but you
39:46
know, like that stuff is launching
39:48
meme coins and Trump wasn't even the
39:50
only president that launched one.
39:51
Right. Like there were other ones
39:52
that did as well.
39:53
You know what? I feel like it did.
39:55
I feel like it kind of exposed the
39:57
industry for what it had become.
39:58
And it was.
39:59
And that
40:01
essentially marked the top.
40:03
I mean, yes, Bitcoin went a little
40:05
bit higher in Q4, like it normally
40:06
does.
40:08
But that essentially marked the top.
40:11
Bitcoin went to 109 on inauguration
40:14
day. And it only ever went to 126
40:16
after that.
40:17
So in fact, like the day that Gary
40:19
Gensler resigned and
40:21
the day the Trump took office,
40:23
that's basically when the industry
40:24
topped.
40:26
So again, this is like one of those
40:27
things where the
40:29
things that people think are bullish
40:31
are not always bullish.
40:33
And the things people think are
40:35
bearish are not bearish.
40:36
For instance, now we're
40:39
going into midterms, right?
40:41
And a lot of people are like, I
40:42
don't know, like, if the, uh...
40:44
If the Republicans lose the House or
40:46
the Senate, like, you know, the
40:48
crypto industry is screwed.
40:50
But.
40:51
What if the market might not think
40:53
that? The market might think, you
40:54
know what, now that we have
40:56
maybe a little bit more checks and
40:57
balances going on,
41:00
perhaps the crypto industry isn't
41:01
going to just exist to rug people,
41:03
right? And so I
41:05
would say that like, be open-minded.
41:08
Any investor will tell you it makes
41:09
sense to be invested through
41:12
both Republican and
41:14
Democratic presidents, at least in
41:15
the stock market long-term, right.
41:16
Like if you stay out of the market,
41:19
because
41:21
you know, you don't like who's
41:23
in office, like you're probably
41:24
going to miss out on some gains,
41:26
right, eventually.
41:28
So think about that with Bitcoin.
41:29
I know people might be scared of
41:31
like, what happens if the
41:33
political who's-in-power
41:35
changes, but
41:37
Bitcoin did fine under
41:39
Obama and it did fine
41:41
in Trump's first term, right?
41:44
So Democratic president, Republican
41:45
president, Bitcoin did find.
41:47
It was actually
41:49
in... You know, a really remarkable
41:51
chart is...
41:53
They did.
41:54
What?
41:55
I said, let's see it.
41:56
Yeah, look at this chart.
41:58
This is the presidential return
42:00
paths for for
42:02
Bitcoin and I want to show you
42:05
look at um
42:07
Okay, look, at barack obama
42:10
and trump Trump's
42:12
first term bitcoin did amazingly
42:13
well and by the end of those two
42:15
terms bitcoin basically was up about
42:17
the same amount Okay, so it
42:19
didn't matter if you were invested
42:21
in bitcoin while obama was in office
42:22
or while trump was in Office bitcoin
42:24
did very very well Now look
42:26
at Biden and
42:29
Donald Trump's second term.
42:30
As measured from Inauguration Day,
42:33
Bitcoin is at the same level
42:35
that was at under Biden's term at
42:37
this exact same time,
42:39
which is remarkable.
42:40
So I mean, it shows you that Bitcoin
42:43
doesn't exist to
42:45
serve either political party.
42:47
It's done really well under
42:49
both political parties, and it's
42:50
done really poorly under both
42:51
political parties, but you could
42:53
argue that Like Bitcoin is
42:55
outside of that.
42:56
And so I wouldn't base decisions
42:57
either on who's in power,
42:59
right? Because it's dependent
43:01
on so much more than who holds
43:03
office. And arguably,
43:05
the meme coin launches by
43:07
the presidents essentially took
43:09
whatever win we had out from the
43:11
sales of the industry in the last
43:12
cycle.
43:13
Yeah, yeah, sadly, sadly
43:15
true. And I mean, like just an
43:17
indic, like indicative
43:18
of the influence of politics.
43:20
And it's, you know, it's it's
43:22
largely self serving.
43:23
I mean I'm not a politician, so I
43:24
will I will pull my daggers out and
43:27
throw them at people.
43:28
But yeah, I don't love politicians
43:30
for this thing.
43:31
Look, Ben, we've had you on for a
43:32
long time, I think just to wrap up
43:34
the show.
43:35
I wanted to get a sense of kind of
43:36
your your outlook going forward.
43:38
We've seen so many people in the
43:39
industry kind pivot to AI because.
43:41
I mean, let's be honest, it's an
43:43
exciting industry.
43:44
If you've played around with any of
43:46
the frontier models, depending on
43:48
what you prefer using, the amount
43:50
of things a layman can do, you can
43:51
launch websites, you can build
43:53
applications.
43:55
You can do pretty much
43:57
anything you set your mind to,
43:58
and AI tools can help you do that.
44:00
A lot of people are branching out
44:01
into creating content on that.
44:03
Are you interested in doing this
44:04
kind of thing, or are you still very
44:05
much sticking in your lane, doing
44:07
what you're doing?
44:08
I mean, I use AI all the time.
44:10
I mean like, every day I use it.
44:13
Like, you know, I invest in AI.
44:15
I invest a lot in like
44:17
the stock market and I try,
44:19
I mean if you're invested in the
44:20
stock market, right, the S&P, the
44:22
NASDAQ, you're
44:24
you're, you are invested in AI,
44:25
right? Because a lot of these things
44:27
are market cap weighted.
44:29
And so you're basically, you
44:30
own NVIDIA, right?
44:32
You own Google and...
44:34
And all these companies, Microsoft,
44:35
you own these companies that are
44:37
heavily doing stuff in AI.
44:40
So yeah, like I've
44:41
absolutely ridden the AI
44:43
wave.
44:45
I talk about it some, I mean, I just
44:47
made a video the other day on the
44:48
stock market and I talk
44:50
a little bit about it.
44:52
But yeah, I as I've said before,
44:54
never let a good bubble go to waste.
44:56
I mean there's always gonna be
44:57
bubbles, don't let them go to ways,
44:59
make money and then look
45:01
for the next one, right?
45:02
Look for the the next. Um.
45:04
So, yeah, I mean, I think that there
45:06
has been a big pivot and it's OK to
45:07
pivot. I mean businesses have
45:09
to pivot all the time.
45:10
That doesn't mean that crypto is
45:12
going to die.
45:13
It just means that, you know, for
45:14
now, AI, especially
45:16
for the miners, AI is more
45:18
profitable and you can't blame them
45:20
for for doing what's more
45:21
profitable. Everyone would probably
45:22
make the same decision if they were
45:23
in their shoes.
45:25
Yeah, for sure.
45:26
Ben, thanks so much for joining us
45:27
today. I really, really love this
45:28
conversation. I hope you will agree
45:30
to come back sometime soon.
45:32
Hopefully when things get super
45:34
exciting or super scary in the
45:35
market, we can get you on to try and
45:37
break them down. And if you don't
45:38
already, go ahead and follow Ben on
45:40
X. It's Benjamin Cowan and then
45:42
at ITC underscore crypto if
45:44
you want to follow Into the
45:46
Cryptoverse as well.
45:47
And of course, if you don't, already
45:48
go and check out their YouTube
45:49
channel Into the crypto verse.
45:52
Subscribe there. If you're watching
45:54
the starting block today on YouTube,
45:55
please subscribe to the channel Or
45:57
if you're, watching us on x like and
45:59
read to you. We've got a load of
46:00
viewers on the show today So a big
46:01
shout out to you ben.
46:03
Thanks so much for joining us Yeah,
46:04
thanks harming pleasure to be here.
46:05
I look forward to being here in the
46:06
future Awesome,
46:08
uh, we will be back with the show
46:09
tomorrow. We got a couple of big
46:11
guests coming up Um, I can
46:13
tell you that we're gonna have cz on
46:15
the Show again on thursday for a big
46:16
announcement.
46:17
Uh, it has something very
46:19
interesting to do with the united
46:20
states That's all I'm going to say.
46:22
So set a reminder on your calendar.
46:24
We're gonna be broadcasting at 10
46:25
a.m. Eastern time on Thursday.
46:27
We've got CZ on the show for a big
46:29
announcement.
46:30
Don't miss it, but we will be back
46:31
tomorrow.
46:32
Usual time, come and join us.
46:34
Until then, we'll see you later.