Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto Carnage📉 Tim Warren Technical Analysis
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Cryptocarnage is happening right now in the markets. Of course,
- 0:03Speaker 1: this could go into a lot of other things, including
- 0:05Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred. Today we're going to
- 0:07Speaker 1: break it down with Tim, who is going to help
- 0:10Speaker 1: us chart it. But before we get started, a word
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- 1:07Speaker 1: I want to bring in Tim Warren. You guys know
- 1:09Speaker 1: him from Tim Warren Trades. How are you, Tim?
- 1:12Speaker 2: Well? I'm doing good myself, Paul. My portfolio, the long
- 1:16Speaker 2: term one's not doing so great. But this is the
- 1:19Speaker 2: stuff that I was expecting, so overall can't be that
- 1:22Speaker 2: much better?
- 1:23Speaker 1: All right? So you you signed up for you signed
- 1:26Speaker 1: up for this, as they say, yeah, And of course
- 1:29Speaker 1: here we roll right now with the fear and greed
- 1:31Speaker 1: and it has started to absolutely plummet your setting at
- 1:35Speaker 1: around sixteen. Last time we had been in this rain
- 1:38Speaker 1: was back in February. What do you think? Do you
- 1:42Speaker 1: think we're going to continue to see the sentiment falling
- 1:45Speaker 1: through the floor like what we've seen here in the
- 1:47Speaker 1: past couple of days?
- 1:48Speaker 2: Yeah? I do you know the metric I follow? It
- 1:52Speaker 2: has this down to twelve? Yes, or two days ago
- 1:54Speaker 2: we were at eleven. The record back in February was
- 1:57Speaker 2: at five, so it's not back down to those extreme lows.
- 2:00Speaker 2: Of course, today we just officially put in that sub
- 2:03Speaker 2: sixty k low or low there. But there's something I'm
- 2:06Speaker 2: gonna show you guys in the chart here. I've been
- 2:08Speaker 2: bearish for months now. I called the move towards eighty
- 2:14Speaker 2: k and then all pullback sub sixty K. But I
- 2:15Speaker 2: thought that this next move was going to be the
- 2:17Speaker 2: last one. There's something on the charts right now, Paul,
- 2:19Speaker 2: that makes me think this isn't the last fall. This
- 2:22Speaker 2: is the next fall, and Bitcoin's bear market. Unfortunately, it
- 2:26Speaker 2: looks like it's going to be extended a couple more months.
- 2:28Speaker 1: So extended a couple more months. You've got right now,
- 2:31Speaker 1: just in the past hour or so, we're talking about
- 2:34Speaker 1: another half a billion. You've got Bitcoin down to sixty one.
- 2:37Speaker 1: It's sub sixty now at time of recording, eighth around
- 2:41Speaker 1: fifteen hundred B and B continuing fall, XRP approaching the
- 2:45Speaker 1: one dollar mark, and now Soul also taking some heat
- 2:49Speaker 1: as well. Let's get into a clip real quick that
- 2:53Speaker 1: I want to play for you, and this is Eric
- 2:55Speaker 1: Balshchunis talking about bitcoin, and then we'll go to the chart.
- 2:58Speaker 1: Take a look.
- 3:00Speaker 3: The messaging shouldn't only be hey, the boomers are coming.
- 3:04Speaker 3: That makes it seem more ponsious, like we just need
- 3:06Speaker 3: more investors. I think the message is that the fundamental
- 3:10Speaker 3: purpose and value here is that the government is going
- 3:14Speaker 3: to print money like crazy, no matter who's president. And
- 3:16Speaker 3: if you want a hedge, something that the government cannot debase,
- 3:20Speaker 3: this is a powerful asset for that, similar to gold.
- 3:24Speaker 1: All right, So this has been the schematic for crypto
- 3:27Speaker 1: for a very long time. Is that debasement of the
- 3:30Speaker 1: US currency the hedge against that, whether you look at
- 3:34Speaker 1: precious metals in gold, or you look at digital assets
- 3:37Speaker 1: from a standpoint of bitcoin, ethereum and others. But now
- 3:42Speaker 1: they're talking about trying to rebrand this, and I think
- 3:46Speaker 1: this is a very interesting question because I don't know
- 3:50Speaker 1: that the culture of especially bitcoin allows for that. I
- 3:54Speaker 1: think it is the next man up kind of thing
- 3:57Speaker 1: in terms of investment strategies that have kind of hit
- 4:00Speaker 1: the market. When you look at the chart right now,
- 4:03Speaker 1: you talk about this being the next dip. Where does
- 4:06Speaker 1: this stop?
- 4:07Speaker 2: So, as I said earlier, Paul, I've been tracking, you know,
- 4:10Speaker 2: and predicting a sub sixty k move here, even all
- 4:13Speaker 2: the way back in February when we made the move
- 4:15Speaker 2: down to sixty k, and I had three targets that
- 4:18Speaker 2: I was really watching conservatively around fifty eight thousand more
- 4:22Speaker 2: aggressively around fifty three thousand, and then my like extreme
- 4:26Speaker 2: situation on this next move could have been all the
- 4:28Speaker 2: way down here to forty eight thousand. Right now, what's happening?
- 4:31Speaker 2: We just wicked sub sixty k. Even more interestingly, you're
- 4:35Speaker 2: gonna see a lot of people talking about this. On
- 4:37Speaker 2: the technical analysis side, we just touched the two hundred
- 4:40Speaker 2: week excuse me, that's the EMA, the SMA, the twitter
- 4:42Speaker 2: We SMA just got hit today, coming in here around
- 4:45Speaker 2: sixty one seven ish, so a lot of people are
- 4:48Speaker 2: going to focus on that. You'll also see this green
- 4:50Speaker 2: trend line. This is the trend line of the bowl
- 4:54Speaker 2: trend for bitcoin, dating all the way back to the
- 4:56Speaker 2: bear market lows of twenty eighteen. So a lot of
- 4:59Speaker 2: support short was hit today and so I will not
- 5:03Speaker 2: be surprised at all if there is a short term
- 5:07Speaker 2: bounce here on bitcoin. By the way, we've also for
- 5:09Speaker 2: the last three days been wrestling with potential BI signals.
- 5:13Speaker 2: On the four hour chart, you can see money flow.
- 5:16Speaker 2: It's gonna sound funny because it's not like there's a
- 5:18Speaker 2: bunch of money flowing in, but money flow has actually
- 5:20Speaker 2: started to go back positive and you can see on
- 5:22Speaker 2: the RSI. We started a trend with higher lows on
- 5:24Speaker 2: the RSI here as well, giving us bullish divergence. So
- 5:28Speaker 2: Bitcoin is overdue for what I would call a rebound,
- 5:31Speaker 2: revenge bounce. Not that this is going to be a bounce,
- 5:34Speaker 2: it takes his back above seventy k or anything, but
- 5:36Speaker 2: a move at this point, I could easily see getting
- 5:38Speaker 2: back up to sixty five sixty six K area. But
- 5:42Speaker 2: I told you I warned a second ago in the intro,
- 5:45Speaker 2: I said, this is maybe not gonna be the last
- 5:50Speaker 2: leg down, it's simply the next leg down. Something I've
- 5:53Speaker 2: talked about on your channel is the fact that we
- 5:55Speaker 2: had this extremely low RSI level back here in February
- 5:59Speaker 2: that can all the way down to fifteen sixteen point something, right,
- 6:05Speaker 2: and if you look at our current level, we just
- 6:08Speaker 2: dip below. Now. The significance of this is that every
- 6:11Speaker 2: single bear market bottom for bitcoin has had bullish divergence
- 6:15Speaker 2: where we get lower lows in price action but higher
- 6:19Speaker 2: lows in the RSI. So what we're seeing with this
- 6:22Speaker 2: is not bullish divergence, implying to me that this probably
- 6:26Speaker 2: is not going to be the last big move down.
- 6:29Speaker 2: In fact, now what I could very easily see happening
- 6:33Speaker 2: as the bi singles are close. I could easily see
- 6:35Speaker 2: us coming down here towards fifty eight and starting to
- 6:37Speaker 2: get some buys coming back up, in which case people
- 6:39Speaker 2: start to get bullish again. They say, oh, that's it,
- 6:41Speaker 2: the bottom's in. All the while, we're just doing another
- 6:44Speaker 2: one of these sideways, boring lower high levels, and then
- 6:48Speaker 2: we dip back down again to fresh lows. At this
- 6:51Speaker 2: point now you can call it the four year cycle,
- 6:54Speaker 2: you can call whatever you want. I'm now looking at
- 6:56Speaker 2: September or October for the realistic timeline for the bounce.
- 7:00Speaker 2: Because we're cancer these daily bullsh divergence. They just push
- 7:03Speaker 2: back the Clarity Act again into August. It sounds like,
- 7:07Speaker 2: according to Loomis, uh, they keep kicking the can down
- 7:09Speaker 2: the road. And unfortunately, I would love to get on
- 7:12Speaker 2: here and tell everybody this is it, the bottom's in.
- 7:14Speaker 2: I'm bullish now, but that's not what the charts are
- 7:16Speaker 2: telling me at this time.
- 7:18Speaker 1: Right. So, and I think the point you look at,
- 7:21Speaker 1: you know, bitcoin now down twenty percent since the Clarity
- 7:24Speaker 1: Act passed. This is since it passed the Banking Committee.
- 7:28Speaker 3: Uh.
- 7:28Speaker 1: Now we're also seeing the bitcoin ETF. You know outflows absolutely,
- 7:34Speaker 1: I think you know astronomical when you compare to this.
- 7:36Speaker 1: I think that's why we you know what you saw
- 7:38Speaker 1: there with Eric balshunis from Bloomberg who covers the ETF
- 7:41Speaker 1: side of thing. He understands this is a liquidity event
- 7:44Speaker 1: that is quite a bit different because remember those mostly
- 7:47Speaker 1: institutional capital that's been playing in on that. Do you
- 7:50Speaker 1: think clarity is that important for bitcoin?
- 7:55Speaker 2: Well, it's gonna be important for the institutions. It's it's
- 7:57Speaker 2: not important necessarily. Bitcoin can make it with out ETFs
- 8:01Speaker 2: and it can be successful without institutions. But but we're
- 8:06Speaker 2: not going to talk about rivaling goal without institutional adoption. Right.
- 8:10Speaker 2: If the thought process is Bitcoin is the money of
- 8:12Speaker 2: the people, institutions don't want to touch with a ten foot poll,
- 8:15Speaker 2: I know a lot of people who want that to
- 8:16Speaker 2: be the situation for bitcoin, and that's fine. You can
- 8:19Speaker 2: think that way. Bitcoin at that place, it's going to
- 8:23Speaker 2: be a long time to get over a million dollars
- 8:25Speaker 2: per coin. There's people talking about getting thirteen fifteen million
- 8:28Speaker 2: dollars per coin, which I still think is possible in
- 8:30Speaker 2: the long term future. That's not happening without institutions, they
- 8:33Speaker 2: still control a massive amount of wealth. We clearly know
- 8:37Speaker 2: that the institution see bitcoin as a threat, right, So
- 8:40Speaker 2: what do you do with a threat? You either a
- 8:42Speaker 2: do everything within your power to kill it, which is
- 8:44Speaker 2: what they tried doing back in twenty twenty one, and
- 8:47Speaker 2: people are going to try to argue they've done it
- 8:48Speaker 2: throughout the last couple of years as well. Or number two,
- 8:51Speaker 2: you realize something is so threatening to you, but it's
- 8:53Speaker 2: it's too big to beat, so you join in with it.
- 8:56Speaker 2: If this new coin, this new currency is going to
- 8:59Speaker 2: take over by store, you got to fight it and
- 9:01Speaker 2: try to kill it, or you have to join side
- 9:03Speaker 2: with it. I think it's the alternative. I think institution
- 9:05Speaker 2: see the riding on the wall. I think they know
- 9:07Speaker 2: fiat currency is on its way out. It was a
- 9:10Speaker 2: trial and error run for the last one hundred and
- 9:12Speaker 2: some odd years that has failed the world's economy. It's
- 9:15Speaker 2: time for solid, hard money again, and bitcoin's the best solution.
- 9:20Speaker 1: Well, and I think if you look at just the comparison,
- 9:23Speaker 1: I'm looking gold price right now in the daily and
- 9:25Speaker 1: it's starting to dip down to it's low again at
- 9:28Speaker 1: around forty three hundred. Do you think gold dips below
- 9:31Speaker 1: four thousand, I'm kind of curious.
- 9:33Speaker 2: That's a good question. I actually haven't spent a lot
- 9:36Speaker 2: of time here recently studying the gold charts, but I
- 9:38Speaker 2: can take a quick look at it here with you.
- 9:42Speaker 2: If you look at the chart here, we're actually kind
- 9:44Speaker 2: of riding a level of resistance here. So if this
- 9:47Speaker 2: is true and these cell scenals come in, the support
- 9:49Speaker 2: trend line actually has gold potentially as low as thirty
- 9:53Speaker 2: seven hundred, So the answer would be yes, south of
- 9:56Speaker 2: four thousand and short though everything's falling today. I don't
- 10:00Speaker 2: know if this is part of the show, So if
- 10:01Speaker 2: it is, you can interrupt me or get rid of
- 10:03Speaker 2: this part of the show. But of course we had
- 10:05Speaker 2: those job numbers come out that unemployment levels have stayed
- 10:08Speaker 2: the same. If you look at any market now, polymarket, CAWSHI,
- 10:13Speaker 2: even the semi futures, we're now seeing heavy predictions that
- 10:18Speaker 2: we're going to get rate hikes later this year. So
- 10:20Speaker 2: oil is down, stocks are down, but so is gold,
- 10:24Speaker 2: and of course crypto is bleeding here pretty profusely today
- 10:28Speaker 2: for sure.
- 10:28Speaker 1: Well, and I think the challenge right now is cash
- 10:32Speaker 1: seems to be moving to the sidelines very quickly, especially
- 10:34Speaker 1: when you look at the S and P, because even
- 10:36Speaker 1: the S and P I think I had a tweet
- 10:37Speaker 1: on this. Yeah, here it is six hundred and fifty
- 10:39Speaker 1: billion wiped off of the U S stock market. That's
- 10:42Speaker 1: today on the S and P.
- 10:43Speaker 2: Five that's been updated now it's over one trillion now.
- 10:46Speaker 1: Yeah, So we are talking about absolute, you know, carnage
- 10:51Speaker 1: in the market. And I think when you consider what's
- 10:55Speaker 1: going on with the major IPOs at least impending question,
- 11:00Speaker 1: do you think people are selling off at this top
- 11:03Speaker 1: right now in the S and P in preparation for
- 11:07Speaker 1: potentially going into something like a SpaceX or an anthropic
- 11:11Speaker 1: rollover in terms of an investment, what do you think?
- 11:15Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a little too early to try
- 11:17Speaker 2: to pinpoint and say that people are taking massive profits.
- 11:21Speaker 2: Yet clearly people are taking profits. The stock market's coming down,
- 11:24Speaker 2: the spy is down, but we're talking about one point
- 11:26Speaker 2: five or one point six percent, so not really that
- 11:29Speaker 2: much as far as what they're going to go into next.
- 11:31Speaker 2: At some point, I do think cash will roll over
- 11:33Speaker 2: into cryptocurrency because again it's still the emerging technology that
- 11:36Speaker 2: has not had this massive run just yet. And I'm
- 11:40Speaker 2: talking I say crypto. Let's be very specific. Real world
- 11:43Speaker 2: asset tokenization is the next big technology that has not
- 11:48Speaker 2: had a massive investment and massive run up just yet.
- 11:51Speaker 2: So I do expect that to come at some point.
- 11:54Speaker 2: But is that yet? I don't know. Are we going
- 11:56Speaker 2: into IPOs potentially? But I'm not going to say here
- 12:00Speaker 2: and pretend like I know information I don't know.
- 12:02Speaker 1: And you look at ethereum in general, let's kind of
- 12:05Speaker 1: jump to that chart because this is one that gets
- 12:08Speaker 1: a little bit more antsy, and you know, listen, there's
- 12:11Speaker 1: been some big proponents here recently that have jumped out
- 12:14Speaker 1: of the ethereum bandwagon for quite they and they've been
- 12:18Speaker 1: on it for quite some time. I mean, banklet is
- 12:20Speaker 1: a good example. I'll talk to you about that in
- 12:22Speaker 1: the in the you know, in the lightning round to
- 12:24Speaker 1: get your opinion on something. But when you look at
- 12:25Speaker 1: the eighth chart, where does this thing stop?
- 12:30Speaker 2: Yeah, when it comes to the eighth chart, you know,
- 12:32Speaker 2: I had a target of conservatively sixteen hundred dollars. Of course,
- 12:37Speaker 2: I think I said sixteen fifty. To be specific, there
- 12:39Speaker 2: was a trend of support for etherorum, which is kind
- 12:41Speaker 2: of where that was coming from. That's been lost here today.
- 12:45Speaker 2: I told people to the downside. That also was part
- 12:47Speaker 2: of the wedge pattern. I told people to the downside.
- 12:49Speaker 2: You all of a sudden now have the potential for
- 12:53Speaker 2: a bare flag situation all the way down to twelve hundred.
- 12:57Speaker 2: I think there's some interesting support around fourteen to fifteen
- 13:01Speaker 2: hundred in the short term, so kind of similar to
- 13:03Speaker 2: like a bitcoin fifty eight thousand dollars support level. That's
- 13:07Speaker 2: an interesting level here in the beginning, but I think
- 13:10Speaker 2: bitcoin to fifty three would probably equal at this point
- 13:13Speaker 2: ethereum to twelve hundred dollars or twelve twenty six.
- 13:16Speaker 1: All right, so fifty three on bitcoin, twelve hundred on ethereum.
- 13:21Speaker 1: And you look at this right now. If we get
- 13:24Speaker 1: a macro relief, let's say, for instance, that we get
- 13:26Speaker 1: a real deal coming out of Iran, Yeah, and you
- 13:30Speaker 1: see energy correcting, it's likely that you would see money
- 13:34Speaker 1: moving back into the S and P maybe, or it
- 13:38Speaker 1: could also be rotation time, you know, from dollars center
- 13:41Speaker 1: on the sidelines. Is that enough to move the crypto
- 13:46Speaker 1: markets or do you feel like we still need the
- 13:48Speaker 1: Clarity Act this summer In addition to the macro pressure
- 13:52Speaker 1: to move the market.
- 13:54Speaker 2: It could be enough to get the ball rolling, It
- 13:56Speaker 2: could be enough to start finding that bottom position. But
- 13:59Speaker 2: I've said even at the Clarity Act were to have
- 14:01Speaker 2: passed in July, but the Iran war continues and economic
- 14:04Speaker 2: uncertainty continues, that also would be stifling for crypto. Maybe
- 14:08Speaker 2: maybe you could find the bottom. But until we have
- 14:10Speaker 2: both clarity for regulation and economic it doesn't even need
- 14:15Speaker 2: to be prosperity, just economic certainty, like what do we
- 14:18Speaker 2: what are we actually dealing with? Is inflation actually a problem?
- 14:21Speaker 2: Are we gonna raise rates? Are we gonna cut rates?
- 14:23Speaker 2: Once we start answering those types of questions, now all
- 14:27Speaker 2: of a sudden is when the emergence of crypto's bull
- 14:30Speaker 2: market could get can get going. And that's again part
- 14:33Speaker 2: of the reasons why I've now updated as of today
- 14:37Speaker 2: my expectation of saying, hey, I think we could bottom
- 14:39Speaker 2: here in the next week or so to now saying
- 14:41Speaker 2: is probably gonna be I mean August at the earliest,
- 14:44Speaker 2: but realistically September or October is because as you get
- 14:48Speaker 2: closer into the mid terms, you get more questions, not
- 14:52Speaker 2: less questions. So we already know the clarity act at
- 14:54Speaker 2: this point. Realistically, in the words of Senator Loomis, isn't
- 14:58Speaker 2: gonna happen till August, extremely close to heavy campaigning time
- 15:02Speaker 2: during mid terms, And you go back to twenty twenty four,
- 15:05Speaker 2: and that's the most recent election period. We had a
- 15:07Speaker 2: very sideways and downward summer of twenty four with all
- 15:11Speaker 2: of the uncertainty. It wasn't until Trump started pulling away
- 15:15Speaker 2: in the polls and it started to feel more certain
- 15:17Speaker 2: that Republicans were going to win and everyone perceed the
- 15:19Speaker 2: Republican Party as being the right party for the markets
- 15:22Speaker 2: that that's finally when we bottomed out and market started
- 15:24Speaker 2: moving back towards the upside. I think it's gonna be
- 15:27Speaker 2: a very similar thing here, where as long as you
- 15:29Speaker 2: have uncertainty on the regulation or uncertainty on the economy
- 15:34Speaker 2: and where it's going to be, it's gonna be hard
- 15:36Speaker 2: to get any real bullish momentum for risk assets like crypto.
- 15:41Speaker 1: Well, you know, and it's interesting because Trump keeps touting
- 15:44Speaker 1: that he's not going to let crypto down. Yeah, but
- 15:47Speaker 1: at the same time, we continue to see hit after
- 15:50Speaker 1: hit after hit on this market, and it doesn't seem
- 15:55Speaker 1: like it's stopping right now in terms of the kind
- 15:57Speaker 1: of pressure we're seeing on clarity, what we're seeing obviously
- 15:59Speaker 1: with the maid and now you add that on to
- 16:02Speaker 1: the potential fed change that we have underway with Warsh,
- 16:06Speaker 1: this starts to change the dynamics very quickly, almost on
- 16:09Speaker 1: every asset class, including crypto. I want to go to
- 16:12Speaker 1: a clip here because this is getting into whether or
- 16:14Speaker 1: not we might get a rate hike. Take a look.
- 16:17Speaker 4: I think there actually could be one this year, and
- 16:20Speaker 4: for good reason. Inflations to the sticky the debate had
- 16:24Speaker 4: been is a labor market weakening or stabilizing. Now the
- 16:27Speaker 4: debate is definitely going from is the labor market stabilizing
- 16:30Speaker 4: to not overheating but sort of moving in a strong
- 16:34Speaker 4: and positive direction. So I think, you know, it would
- 16:37Speaker 4: be unwise to take the constructor of a height off
- 16:40Speaker 4: this year, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to
- 16:41Speaker 4: see one at the end of the year. And yes,
- 16:42Speaker 4: I'd probably be more likely than not that they'll be
- 16:45Speaker 4: a hike at the end this year, because I think
- 16:47Speaker 4: that's the numbers called all right, So.
- 16:49Speaker 1: There you have a tim a hike at the end
- 16:51Speaker 1: of the year. If that were to happen if a
- 16:53Speaker 1: hike comes and Clarity doesn't go through and we're still
- 16:57Speaker 1: stuck in this war, is that the ultimate triple threat
- 17:02Speaker 1: to crypto in terms of just exceeding this bear market
- 17:05Speaker 1: into twenty twenty seven.
- 17:08Speaker 2: Well, you know, there's this phrase a lot of people
- 17:10Speaker 2: and by the way, myself included, So I'm not gonna
- 17:11Speaker 2: take myself out of the boat. I thought back in
- 17:13Speaker 2: twenty way five we could potentially be heading for a supercycle. Now,
- 17:17Speaker 2: when the phrase supercycle gets utilized, everyone just assumes it's
- 17:20Speaker 2: on the bullish side. The scenario you just painted, Paul
- 17:23Speaker 2: could bring a supercycle just the opposite of what everyone wanted.
- 17:26Speaker 2: It'd be a super bearer cycle. Yeah, I don't think
- 17:29Speaker 2: we bought them out. If there's no Clarity and the
- 17:31Speaker 2: war is still going on and there's chaos with the
- 17:34Speaker 2: elections and everything else, yeah, I think very well we
- 17:37Speaker 2: could be looking at it. Sorry righthikes as well. We
- 17:39Speaker 2: could be looking at an extended bear market into early
- 17:41Speaker 2: twenty seven, and there's our supercycle.
- 17:45Speaker 1: Listen, you and I have talked about Solana a lot.
- 17:50Speaker 1: We were we were on a call just like this
- 17:52Speaker 1: at about eight dollars once. Yeah, we were, and you know,
- 17:56Speaker 1: here we are again looking at Solana taking another hit.
- 18:01Speaker 1: So when you look at Solana and where its position
- 18:05Speaker 1: is now, the last time Solana really took a hit
- 18:08Speaker 1: was during FTX, you know that's the under the bridge.
- 18:12Speaker 1: We've seen an unbelievable amount of advancements in the tech
- 18:15Speaker 1: and the team and what they've been able to do
- 18:17Speaker 1: with the Salana Foundation and so on. Where do you
- 18:19Speaker 1: think Solana stands by end of year? Where would you
- 18:22Speaker 1: put this one?
- 18:25Speaker 2: I mean, it depends on a lot of those situations
- 18:27Speaker 2: and scenarios we just talked through.
- 18:29Speaker 1: Let's paint it into the fifty three k and twelve hundred.
- 18:32Speaker 2: Eighth yes, yeah, If you go to my screen here,
- 18:35Speaker 2: there's some interesting things happening on the Solana chart at
- 18:37Speaker 2: the moment. You know, I was ridiculed by a lot
- 18:40Speaker 2: of people on the internet talking about sixty to fifty
- 18:42Speaker 2: dollars on Solana. You know, of course, at that time,
- 18:45Speaker 2: as I'm saying it, the price is hovering between ninety
- 18:48Speaker 2: closer to one hundred dollars, and people think I'm crazy
- 18:50Speaker 2: for talking about these types of pullbacks. Today, it doesn't
- 18:52Speaker 2: seem so crazy at the moment, as you're looking. Solana
- 18:55Speaker 2: today got all the way down to sixty three dollars
- 18:58Speaker 2: per coin, and like I said, with Bitcoin and Ethereum,
- 19:01Speaker 2: I don't think that we are done with this move.
- 19:03Speaker 2: So all of a sudden, that sixty dollars mark looks
- 19:06Speaker 2: extremely good, and because of where we are, I kind
- 19:09Speaker 2: of again I see that sixty dollars move as like
- 19:11Speaker 2: the Bitcoin fifty eight or the Ethereum fifteen hundred dollars call. Now,
- 19:17Speaker 2: all of a sudden, the situation is kind of coming
- 19:20Speaker 2: to fruition here. I think the fifty dollars call that
- 19:22Speaker 2: I've made again months ago as a possibility that becomes
- 19:26Speaker 2: my if Bitcoin hits fifty three, and if Ethereum drops
- 19:28Speaker 2: all the way to twelve hundred, more than likely Solana
- 19:31Speaker 2: also drops towards fifty dollars. And interestingly, as you're looking
- 19:34Speaker 2: at trend lines developing here, obviously a long term support
- 19:37Speaker 2: trend line. Now we're watching here for Solana long term
- 19:41Speaker 2: resistance trend line from these highs back in September. We're
- 19:44Speaker 2: on a following wedge pattern. So this follow which pattern.
- 19:46Speaker 2: If we lose the support level, okay, then we'll have
- 19:48Speaker 2: to address what the next low could be, it's probably
- 19:50Speaker 2: gonna be in the world of thirty dollars. But this
- 19:53Speaker 2: is actually a good case right here. To my point,
- 19:56Speaker 2: Solana could probably get down here to sixty, have a
- 19:58Speaker 2: nice little bounce, maybe even bounce way back up towards
- 20:00Speaker 2: seventy five, and then not actually hit that fifty dollars
- 20:04Speaker 2: call until much later guess when September October area, and
- 20:08Speaker 2: then have our bullish breakout later on.
- 20:10Speaker 1: Interesting. Okay, all right, so fifty possibly a sixty supplement there.
- 20:15Speaker 1: When I was looking at Solana, of course, we've seen
- 20:18Speaker 1: probably the most barish volume sentiment we've seen in a
- 20:21Speaker 1: very long time on our own indicator at about eleven percent.
- 20:24Speaker 1: So that and that's after five days of pretty significant
- 20:27Speaker 1: falling in terms of Solana.
- 20:29Speaker 2: You know what's also interesting here, Paul, I think that
- 20:31Speaker 2: this actually a very I'm gonna make a really this
- 20:34Speaker 2: is like you know, in politics, you have the spin cycle, right,
- 20:36Speaker 2: how you spin something really negative to sound positive. But
- 20:39Speaker 2: I don't think I'm spinning. I'm coging. Realistically. Have you
- 20:42Speaker 2: seen a headline in the last month that someone says, yeah,
- 20:45Speaker 2: Solana's dead. Solana doesn't work. It's gonna fall out. I
- 20:50Speaker 2: haven't seen a single one. There's no news on Solana.
- 20:53Speaker 2: Here's my theory as to why Solon is bleeding so badly,
- 20:55Speaker 2: because it's also not performing well. When everything is built
- 20:59Speaker 2: being built on a certain platform in an ecosystem, and
- 21:03Speaker 2: that ecosystem is not performing well, why wouldn't the thing
- 21:06Speaker 2: that everyone built it on be suffering as well. Everybody
- 21:09Speaker 2: wants to use Solana to build their coins and build
- 21:11Speaker 2: their cryptocurrency, and reeled assets are being funneled through there
- 21:14Speaker 2: as well, So we're in a system that's not performing well.
- 21:17Speaker 2: Everything was built there. Of course Solon is going to drop,
- 21:20Speaker 2: but when everything starts to flow back, everyone built on Solana,
- 21:25Speaker 2: it's also going to be one of the next high
- 21:26Speaker 2: flyers when bullshmentum comes.
- 21:30Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you're exactly right, and I think the
- 21:33Speaker 1: in reference to high flyers, I think they're the opportunity
- 21:36Speaker 1: here on the upside is pretty significant. Okay. One other
- 21:40Speaker 1: token I want to get into in terms of a
- 21:42Speaker 1: chart is ze cash. Big hit on them on the
- 21:45Speaker 1: privacy token. When you look at at what's going on.
- 21:48Speaker 1: They had a security researcher basically using Claude Opus four
- 21:51Speaker 1: point a. This is available term pretty much anyone that
- 21:55Speaker 1: would enable you to essentially almost meant unlimited. Yeah, and
- 22:01Speaker 1: this of course gets into a problem where we're going
- 22:03Speaker 1: to see a lot of blockchains facing AI analysis for
- 22:07Speaker 1: a lot of these essentially loopholes and these you know,
- 22:11Speaker 1: these back doors. In essence, when you look at something
- 22:14Speaker 1: like z cash, I mean, would this be would you
- 22:16Speaker 1: stay or look at any privacy tokens right now with
- 22:20Speaker 1: based on what happened with z cash.
- 22:23Speaker 2: Well, I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater
- 22:27Speaker 2: and say every privacy token is at problems. I think
- 22:29Speaker 2: this problem was specifically a z cash problem, and z
- 22:32Speaker 2: Cash's team you're gonna have to work very hard to
- 22:35Speaker 2: answer some questions and make sure that they fix the
- 22:38Speaker 2: problems here. Interestingly, you know this is something I did
- 22:42Speaker 2: not think we would make money on it this fast,
- 22:45Speaker 2: but we literally two days ago, right before this whole
- 22:48Speaker 2: thing crashed, told our community. Then if you go to
- 22:51Speaker 2: our chart, you can take a look here at what
- 22:52Speaker 2: we were looking at. These are our indicators here we
- 22:54Speaker 2: identified let me turn this off for just a second.
- 22:56Speaker 2: We identified a head and shoulders pattern. Okay, head and
- 22:59Speaker 2: shoulders pattern For those who don't know what that is.
- 23:01Speaker 2: That's simply a lower left shoulder, a middle high peak
- 23:05Speaker 2: called the head, and then a lower right shoulder. Okay,
- 23:07Speaker 2: head and shoulders pattern. We have a trend line right here,
- 23:09Speaker 2: and I told the audience that had okay, this should
- 23:12Speaker 2: probably put us safely down to three ninety two, but
- 23:15Speaker 2: there's a massive order block. When I turn on my
- 23:17Speaker 2: indicators down here, there's a massive order block somewhere being
- 23:20Speaker 2: two seventy five to two twenty eight middle point here
- 23:24Speaker 2: around or two hitty two. I told our community to
- 23:27Speaker 2: look for a trade down to these levels with a
- 23:29Speaker 2: confirmed breakout. Sure enough, this trade, Paul, this trade. It
- 23:32Speaker 2: should have taken like a week and a half to
- 23:34Speaker 2: two weeks, like I was expecting a pullback on z cash,
- 23:37Speaker 2: just not over a matter of less than forty eight hours.
- 23:40Speaker 2: And sure enough, both those signals we called for got
- 23:43Speaker 2: hit here.
- 23:44Speaker 1: Well, this is I mean, this is obviously sentiment reaction
- 23:47Speaker 1: to all of this. So that's not something you can
- 23:49Speaker 1: call on our chart. So it's not like a SNAI speed.
- 23:53Speaker 2: The speed of it was crazy. The numbers were solid,
- 23:56Speaker 2: and that's why I don't I'm not ready to give
- 23:58Speaker 2: up on z cash. Fundamentally all the way around, because
- 24:02Speaker 2: yes it fell very quickly, yes it was aggressive, but
- 24:05Speaker 2: you pull up the charts and these were two easily
- 24:08Speaker 2: identifiable levels of support, not only down where we went
- 24:11Speaker 2: to but right now we're camping out like where we're
- 24:14Speaker 2: coming back up to and bouncing. We identify these levels
- 24:17Speaker 2: two days ago on our live show as interesting level
- 24:20Speaker 2: to keep an eye on for downward movements. So that
- 24:23Speaker 2: to me tells me, okay, ze cash had a problem
- 24:25Speaker 2: and people freaked out, but fundamentally, guess where people had
- 24:29Speaker 2: their bi singles ready to execute on traditional technical analysis,
- 24:33Speaker 2: meaning people aren't just panic selling and running away. There's
- 24:36Speaker 2: still some reasoning happening here.
- 24:38Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Well, and that will be the question is
- 24:40Speaker 1: how does this one land up? All right, man, let's
- 24:43Speaker 1: get into the lightning round real quick. I'm gonna start
- 24:48Speaker 1: off with this one right here, which is who deserves
- 24:51Speaker 1: more blame for crypto's crash right now? Trump failing clarity
- 24:54Speaker 1: or Sailor dumping Bitcoin. What do you think?
- 24:58Speaker 2: Yeah? No, I think you got to go Trump feeling
- 25:00Speaker 2: clarity because Sailor dumps bitcoin is probably more of a
- 25:05Speaker 2: side effect of clarity not coming.
- 25:08Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think Trump has completely lost the script here.
- 25:13Speaker 1: When it comes to you, it does not look good.
- 25:17Speaker 1: Congress has secretly been shorting the market, knowing that Clarity
- 25:21Speaker 1: has no chance. Do you think that's happening.
- 25:23Speaker 3: Oh?
- 25:23Speaker 2: I think that's false. Now. Could you say that they
- 25:25Speaker 2: might be secretly short in the market, That would be true.
- 25:28Speaker 2: But the reasoning they think that Clarity has no chance,
- 25:30Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think it's still going to
- 25:32Speaker 2: pass at some point the questions win.
- 25:35Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to go on the other side. I
- 25:38Speaker 1: think it's all right.
- 25:39Speaker 2: Conspiracy. You need listen, where's your team?
- 25:42Speaker 1: You need to my Tim Foyle hat here. That's right, Yeah, okay,
- 25:46Speaker 1: we'll call it the I don't know what we'll call.
- 25:49Speaker 1: There's no good news coming in the next thirty gree
- 25:52Speaker 1: thirty days. Agree or disagree?
- 25:54Speaker 2: Disagree, And my reason for disagreeing is that that's how
- 25:58Speaker 2: manipulation works, is play with your emotions at all times,
- 26:02Speaker 2: back and forth and back and forth. We just got
- 26:04Speaker 2: a massive drop. They're gonna play with our emotions giving
- 26:08Speaker 2: us a ray of hope here in the next thirty days. Yeah,
- 26:10Speaker 2: I agree, But will that will it? Will it lead
- 26:12Speaker 2: us back to bubb eighty k highly unlikely.
- 26:15Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree in the sense that we disagree on
- 26:18Speaker 1: no good news coming. We're gonna get some, all right.
- 26:21Speaker 1: I'm not worried about strategy at all, and we're talking
- 26:24Speaker 1: about micro strategy.
- 26:26Speaker 2: I'd say put me in the middle on that one.
- 26:28Speaker 2: I'm not ready to say. Uh, I am really worried,
- 26:31Speaker 2: but I think it's foolish to not be worried at all.
- 26:34Speaker 2: I mean, at a certain point, the numbers do work
- 26:37Speaker 2: out that he has to pay back things. So if
- 26:39Speaker 2: we dropped to a certain level, he's gonna have to
- 26:41Speaker 2: pay back.
- 26:42Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I don't know if I'm in the middle
- 26:48Speaker 1: or if I agree. I'm not. I'm not worried about now.
- 26:50Speaker 1: I disagree. I am worried about it. I am worried
- 26:53Speaker 1: about it. Magic wand you could only fix one. Clarity
- 26:57Speaker 1: passes are an Iranian piece deal.
- 27:06Speaker 2: That's a hard one because I do I do think
- 27:09Speaker 2: is running out of hard power. I do think that
- 27:12Speaker 2: there's a level, there's a there's a point where Iron
- 27:14Speaker 2: just can't do anything by themselves. But I think there's
- 27:17Speaker 2: a world in which you still see successful crypto without clarity.
- 27:21Speaker 2: We need peace, though, I think economic uncertainty is the
- 27:23Speaker 2: bigger problem.
- 27:24Speaker 1: You and I are on the same right right, No
- 27:26Speaker 1: more peace, no wars. Uh conspiracy theory. Here we go.
- 27:30Speaker 1: Charles Hoskinson is secretly shorting ATA, knowing his video would
- 27:36Speaker 1: crash the joke, and of course we saw.
- 27:39Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 27:40Speaker 1: I mean, I can play the rant if you want
- 27:41Speaker 1: to hear it.
- 27:42Speaker 2: I've listened to it. I don't know if people want
- 27:44Speaker 2: to hear it again, but I've heard it. It was intense.
- 27:48Speaker 2: I'm not ready to say that he was shorting it.
- 27:52Speaker 2: I would, you know what, I would pay big money
- 27:54Speaker 2: to see Paul and there's no way this will ever happen.
- 27:56Speaker 2: So maybe someone can use AI and just make it
- 27:58Speaker 2: for us. I would love to see Charles Hoskinson on
- 28:01Speaker 2: your show and you ask him that question your show.
- 28:05Speaker 1: He's been on my show.
- 28:06Speaker 2: Would he come on your show after it? Just after now?
- 28:09Speaker 1: I don't think So we'll put a We'll put an
- 28:11Speaker 1: invite out to Charles. If you're listening, you're more than
- 28:13Speaker 1: welcome to come on answer to prove me wrong that
- 28:16Speaker 1: you weren't shorting the token, or you know, we'll see. Hey,
- 28:21Speaker 1: which civil war breaks out first? Do you think bitcoin
- 28:24Speaker 1: below thirty K? Civil war? Or XRP below fifty k
- 28:27Speaker 1: fifty cents.
- 28:30Speaker 2: First, oh, man, First, when you say civil war used
- 28:34Speaker 2: like people like arguing about.
- 28:36Speaker 1: You know, core core holders, devs, you know, just literally
- 28:40Speaker 1: starting to.
- 28:41Speaker 2: Oh, you're saying civil war would break out because the
- 28:44Speaker 2: price goes below these levels.
- 28:45Speaker 1: Not not a literal civil war like physical I'm talking
- 28:49Speaker 1: about within the communities. Yeah, civil war within the communities.
- 28:53Speaker 1: Do you think you think it would be a Bitcoin
- 28:54Speaker 1: under thirty or or an XRP under fifty.
- 28:59Speaker 2: So I'm with I'm gonna go with XRP below fifty cents.
- 29:03Speaker 2: And the reason why is because even though I don't
- 29:04Speaker 2: think Bitcoin needs go blow thirty k, in theory, if
- 29:07Speaker 2: Bitcoin matched a previous bear market, thirty k would be
- 29:09Speaker 2: about the right level.
- 29:10Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree. I think there'd be big problems
- 29:12Speaker 1: in the XRP army if fifty cents is brought back. Uh.
- 29:16Speaker 1: If SpaceX ipo stays above three trillion tax the billionaire's
- 29:22Speaker 1: narrative starts to skyrocket, do you think that would happen?
- 29:26Speaker 2: Absolutely, because it's already I'd feel like, when we say
- 29:29Speaker 2: it starts to skyrocket, that's already a pretty big.
- 29:33Speaker 1: One point two trillion possibly more. I agree, we're going
- 29:36Speaker 1: to see this just more and more.
- 29:38Speaker 2: We we got politicians out here wanting to tax AI
- 29:40Speaker 2: fifty percent.
- 29:41Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, yeah, Tron flipped Solana.
- 29:47Speaker 2: Oh I don't even know. I don't pay attention to
- 29:48Speaker 2: tront as much. Do you think Solana is not done yet?
- 29:56Speaker 2: I'm I'm gonna be wrong, probably, but let me just
- 29:59Speaker 2: say no, I think Solana stays above it.
- 30:02Speaker 1: All right. I'm in the no camp as well. First,
- 30:04Speaker 1: I don't think they flip Solana sailor selling bitcoin to
- 30:08Speaker 1: maximize shareholder value proves anything else is possible and on
- 30:14Speaker 1: the table.
- 30:17Speaker 2: It's an interesting question. I think I understand what it's asking,
- 30:20Speaker 2: but meaning we're not done with crazy things breaking, Yeah,
- 30:24Speaker 2: we're not done.
- 30:24Speaker 1: Yeah, agreed, Yeah, okay, that's all right, We're on the
- 30:27Speaker 1: same Yeah, I.
- 30:27Speaker 2: Think yeah pretty much. That just says we're another crazy
- 30:30Speaker 2: story out of left field could happen. Yeah, yeah, you agree?
- 30:35Speaker 1: All right, So I'm in agreeing with that. I don't think.
- 30:37Speaker 1: I don't think this will do anything to he will
- 30:40Speaker 1: do anything to maximize What do you think about this?
- 30:43Speaker 1: You think the coin bess app will freeze in the
- 30:45Speaker 1: next twenty four hours? With the current market falling.
- 30:48Speaker 2: If if we crash more and start heading towards fifty
- 30:52Speaker 2: three tonight, yes, but at a current level and current rate,
- 30:57Speaker 2: I don't think so. But it depends on how low
- 30:59Speaker 2: he gets, say sub fifty three thousand, yes, as long
- 31:02Speaker 2: as they above it. No, all right, I would put
- 31:06Speaker 2: me in.
- 31:06Speaker 1: I would okay, so no, yes, I would be in
- 31:10Speaker 1: the middle. I think I think a sub Yeah, I
- 31:14Speaker 1: think you're right. I think if we get into a
- 31:15Speaker 1: fifty three range, we will see a crash potentially because
- 31:20Speaker 1: the amount of trading that's going to happen around fifty
- 31:22Speaker 1: three is going to be crazy. Bankless was right on
- 31:26Speaker 1: exiting eight a week and a half ago.
- 31:29Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they're I think they're gonna well, I mean,
- 31:31Speaker 2: depends what they get into. But let's say no, they
- 31:33Speaker 2: were not right to do those so because I think
- 31:35Speaker 2: there will be a bounce back up. But if they
- 31:37Speaker 2: go in and say, well, now we're all in on Salona,
- 31:39Speaker 2: then I might have an argument to say they were right.
- 31:40Speaker 2: But let's see what their next move is.
- 31:42Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know on that one. I'm not going
- 31:44Speaker 1: to answer because I just don't know if they were
- 31:45Speaker 1: right or wrong. Two x price prediction from Arthur Hayes
- 31:50Speaker 1: means and this is listen, guys, this should be a
- 31:55Speaker 1: learning point for everybody, is that when you hear a
- 31:59Speaker 1: major influencer say we're going to see something go two
- 32:02Speaker 1: x figure, you're going to be considerably lower that before
- 32:06Speaker 1: an exit. So just always keep that in mind. Two
- 32:10Speaker 1: x means really you know percent? What do you think?
- 32:14Speaker 2: Yes, no, I talked about Arthur and my show yesterday.
- 32:17Speaker 2: I like that Arthur is constantly changing his mind on
- 32:19Speaker 2: things when new information came.
- 32:20Speaker 1: Now changed his mind, but he.
- 32:22Speaker 2: Changed his mind a lot. So let's say for the
- 32:24Speaker 2: sake of the joke, yes, I do think Arthur hay
- 32:27Speaker 2: is rarely like he called for a bitcoin like two
- 32:29Speaker 2: hundred thousand by the end of twenty five.
- 32:31Speaker 1: Oh yeah, to end of the year.
- 32:34Speaker 2: He changes his calls all the time. Yeah.
- 32:36Speaker 1: Yeah, it's all over the place. Which is really the
- 32:38Speaker 1: point is that you just need to follow the news,
- 32:42Speaker 1: stay fundamental, and look at long term narratives and make
- 32:45Speaker 1: sure they match up with your investment thesis. You know,
- 32:48Speaker 1: if you're attack investor, if you're a next generation investor
- 32:52Speaker 1: looking for long term gains, or if you're somebody that's
- 32:54Speaker 1: trading voluntility, you know, trading voluntility right now. You're going
- 32:58Speaker 1: to be making a lot of money in this market
- 33:01Speaker 1: today as it is, so whether you're shorting or you're
- 33:04Speaker 1: in a position to buy these dips and look for
- 33:06Speaker 1: market moves. So definitely a good one. Tim, great having
- 33:10Speaker 1: you on the show today, Thanks so much for coming in.
- 33:12Speaker 2: Absolutely thanks for having me again, Paul.
- 33:21Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
- 33:23Speaker 1: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
- 33:27Speaker 1: The link is in the description.