Latest / Pod Save America / “All is not well!”

Transcript

“All is not well!” · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: On the pod today, I will talk to Senator Elizabeth Warren.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: But first, we'll talk about the latest in the standoff
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: with Iran. the developments in Donald Trump's impeachment trial, and
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: all the latest 2020 primary news. Also, Dan, happy anniversary.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Not you and Howley, us. This is the third anniversary
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: of Pod Save America, and I only know that because
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: right before we started recording, Tommy just ran right into
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: the studio to tell us that it's the third anniversary
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: of Pod Save America, three years ago, man.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: I had a brief heart attack. Like, I know... Hallie
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: and I got married in October. Like, I know that.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: But for a second, I was like.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: It's hard to keep track of the months.
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I was like, I don't know.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: The weather is the same. Time's a flat circle. Trump's
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: still president. I was like, fuck.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: No, I have that problem, too. I have that problem, too.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: All right. So two quick housekeeping notes. Tommy and Ben
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: recorded another essential episode of Pod Save the World this week,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: right after we learned on Tuesday that Iran had fired
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: missiles on bases housing American soldiers. They talk about Trump's
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: changing rationale for assassinating Soleimani, what Congress can do to
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: stop the war from escalating, and they're joined by Brett McGurk,
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: who led the coalition against ISIS under Obama and Trump. Listen, subscribe,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: become a Worldo, especially now. You won't regret it. And
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: a favor for me, please subscribe to The Wilderness. Our
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: second season premieres on Monday, January 13th, this Monday. And
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: you can listen to the trailer and subscribe right now
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: at thewildernesspodcast.com. Go to thewildernesspodcast.com. This season, I talk to
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: all kinds of voters, organizers, candidates, and strategists, including one
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Dan Pfeiffer. And I go to some of the battlegrounds
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: that will decide 2020, looking for a path to victory.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: So I'm excited for it. I just heard the first
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: couple episodes, and the team, as usual, has done a
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: fantastic job. It sounds great. It'll make you look. There's
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: some tough stuff in the focus group, but ultimately it
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: points to the it points to the right direction. And
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I think you'll feel more inspired and energized to go
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: do something after you listen to it. So take it.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Take a listen.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Now, if I was previously subscribed to season one of Wilderness,
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: do I need to subscribe again? Yeah.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: You might, you should just go check because, you know,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: when you subscribe to something and, you know, episodes haven't
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: been dropping for a while, you might, Apple might unsubscribe
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: you from it. Okay. So you should go and you
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: should listen to the new trailer. If for no other
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: reason than at the beginning of the trailer, David Plouffe
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: scares the shit out of everyone. And, and it's pretty good.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think I said to you that obviously
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: for those of us who worked for Plouffe for many,
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: many years, his voice carries weight with us. Like whether
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: he's telling us how elections are going to go or
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: like what we should order for lunch. Like, But so
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: hearing him describe the consequences of a Trump reelection basically
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: had like, I was like packing my bag to go
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: to a battleground state as it was happening.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: It's very, yeah, I started the trailer very dark. And
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: then by the end you hear people like Stacey Abrams
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: and Heather McGee, uh, and Sherrod Brown being really, uh,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: much more hopeful and optimistic. So it's a nice little balance,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: something for everyone.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: No one in politics has known more for their optimism
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: than Sherrod Brown.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: That's true. Um, Dan, I believe you have something to
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: say about Untrumping America. I do.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: The book, not the concept. The holiday hiatus from bookshilling
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: has come to an end, and we have work to do,
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: trust me. And so we are announcing today a special
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: promotional giveaway where anyone who pre-orders the book between now
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: and Friday, January 17th, will get in the mail a
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: signed poster version of the cover of the book. which
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: says on November 3rd, let's untrump America. So it can
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: remind you about the book, but it can more importantly
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: remind you to vote in this most consequential election. If
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: you're one of the American heroes who pre-ordered the book
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: already and desperately want a poster, do not worry. You
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: are still eligible. If you go to the website, untrumpingamerica.com
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: slash promotional giveaway, and you upload your proof of purchase,
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: we will send you a poster. I am signing these,
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: all of them, which I feel very awkward about that
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: Anyone will want my signature. And at one point in
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: the discussions, the publisher said to me, you know, we
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: can just auto sign these, which I was so embarrassed by.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: I was like, no, if I did that, I would
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: hate myself. You would make fun of me. My wife
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: would make fun of me. So I will be signing
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: all of them individually for those of you who are
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: interested in this. And reminder that a portion of the
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: proceeds from every book pre-ordered, whether that's a hardcover book,
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: a Kindle, an audio book, will be donated to Fair
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: Fight Action, Stacey Abrams' group to protect our voting rights.
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: So there is an additional incentive there. And I will say,
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: I am behind schedule from where I was at this
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: point last year. A fact that my publisher, who I'm
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: convinced is now more interested in telling me he told
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: me so than selling books, has pointed out to me repeatedly.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: So I feel like this is a, uh, this is
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: a democratic presidential candidate, uh, email right before the fundraising deadline.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: Trust me. This is, this is not like a, this
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: is an actual, like a lot of times those emails say,
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: if you do not do X, then we cannot do
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: Y and it's complete bullshit. This one is not bullshit.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: We have work to do. Like, look, I, we've had
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: the holidays. We have potential war with Iran. People have
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: been very busy. I get it, but, uh, I'm quite
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: competitive and I don't like losing elections or even Verbal
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: bets with low stakes with my publisher.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Have you considered offering signed headshots?
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: No, I hadn't.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Or maybe a calendar, 12 months of Dan? I'm just
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: spitballing here. I thought we'd do some light brainstorming.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: Light brainstorming.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Anyway. Go buy Untrumping America, everyone. Go buy it. It's
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: going to be a fucking great book, and it's going
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: to teach you not only how How We Can Beat
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump, but How to Fix Our Politics. It's a
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: fantastic read. Go buy it.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: How about this? How about if you don't buy the book,
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: I will send you a calendar of 12 months of Dan.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Oh, okay. Well, then get to your fucking computer.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Yes, you do not want that.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Trust me. Okay, news. On Tuesday night, the Iranian government
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: retaliated against the United States for last week's assassination of
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Major General Qasem Soleimani. Over a dozen ballistic missiles were
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: launched at two bases housing U.S. forces in Iraq. The U.S.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: government has confirmed that there were no casualties, and the
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Iranian government has said that this will be the extent
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: of their retaliation. But before we knew any of this,
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: right after the missiles were falling all around our troops,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump tweeted the following, All is well! Missiles launched
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: of casualties and damages taking place now. So far, so good.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Then on Wednesday morning, he gave a speech where he
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: said all Americans should be, quote, grateful and happy. So, Dan,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: it does seem like Iran wanted to give Trump an
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: off-ramp that he has decided to take, at least for now.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Off-ramp is the metaphor we are using in the last
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: couple days. That's what's all over the news, so we're
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: going with the off-ramp. Dave Weigel actually got the quote
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: of the day from a Democratic member of Congress who
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: told him, quote, you need two crazy leaders to start
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: a war, and fortunately, Iran doesn't have one. Do you
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: think that's a good summary of what happened? And do
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: you think this pause in the crisis can last?
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: I think it's an excellent summary of what has happened.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: So kudos to you and Michael and Jordan who helped
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: you put it together. And I think that quote, you
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: hate to say it because it's so scary when you
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: think about it. Because in like whenever... you talk about
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: North Korea or Syria or anything else in a national
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: security context, it's always the chaos factor in it is
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: the unpredictable and irrational nature of the opponent. And at
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: least for one day, Iran behaved very, like this was
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: very irrational. If what, if this is what they wanted
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: was a de-escalation of sorts, they behaved very, very rationally
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: and specifically, and obviously lots of risk and danger in
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: firing ballistic missiles, but to the extent, like they sent
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: a symbol at home and abroad that this was responded
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: to and sent a very specific message to the United
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: States that the ball is in your court if you
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: want to take a pause here or deescalate or whatever
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: the term is. And in that sense, that did work.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: But Trump is dangerously unpredictable, right? All of the stories
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: about how this decision was made, But who he talked
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: to about it, who was influencing him, the information that
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: he has and where he's getting it from are all
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: deeply concerning. We're one cable segment away from heading back
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: to the brink of war.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, look, I'll take it from the Trump
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: side and then the Iranian side. From the Trump side,
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: it's like you just said, like any rabid consumer of
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: television news who becomes the president of the United States,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Trump knows... three things about the politics of war. Killing
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: bad guys and terrorists is popular. Blowing things up with
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: rockets and bombs is popular and makes for good television.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: But getting stuck in an endless war is very unpopular. So, like,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: to me, Trump's actions all sort of make sense when
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: you just think about him as, as usual, just this
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: cable news viewer, Fox News fan who becomes president of
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: the United States. And so is he going to do
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: impulsive things like, you know, kill terrorists even if it
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: has horrible global consequences? for the United States and the world. Yes,
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: he's going to do that because he can, you know,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: he can just get swept up in a rush to war.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Is he going to make stupid moves and send rockets here? Yeah,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: of course he's going to do that because that's what,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: you know, cable news tells you is strong and good
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: and all that bullshit. But he also knows, and I
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: think this has been true from the beginning of the presidency,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: he knows in the back of his mind, because he
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: spent so much time, you know, yelling about George Bush
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: and the Iraq war, He knows that it is at
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: the very least unpopular to get stuck in an endless war.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: And so he's constantly going to do these things in
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: foreign policy that don't make a lot of sense because
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: that's sort of what I think cable news tells us
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: about war, unfortunately. Anyway, that's my theory. What do you think?
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Doesn't that seem like that's Trump?
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, he's definitely constantly pulled between two impulses,
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: which is his innate mortal fear of being seen weak
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: and his view that a protracted land war is bad politics.
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: And he doesn't want to go back, go back and
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: forth between it. I mean, David Sanger in the New
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: York times described this at like his speech yesterday as
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: essentially a strategic muddle, um, masked by a ceasefire and
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: that he, Trump has been unable throughout his presidency. Um, and, um,
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: particularly as it relates to this current crisis we're in,
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: to reconcile the two impulses he has on foreign policy,
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: which are bellicosity and isolationism. And so he wants to
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: both be able to have his– and I think this
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: is how he thinks about it– have his moment of
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: announcing to the world that– that Obama had of announcing
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: to the world that bin Laden has been killed– but
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: also not be in a position that George W. Bush
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: was in during the Iraq war. And so I almost
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: think that if he had gotten more coverage and more
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: attention after the killing of Baghdadi, he might not have
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: taken this move because in some of the reporting, which
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: it's always hard to tell what is accurate and true
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: in any sort of Trump story. But one of the
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: reportings is the Pentagon gave Trump a series of options
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: to respond to the Iranian aggression involving the embassy. And
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: they put, the killing of Soleimani on the list, not
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: because they thought there was no way he would take it.
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: It's a very typical bureaucratic move to direct a president
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: towards a certain decision by picking a massive overreaction and
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: a massive, massive underreaction. And then the only option is
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Goldilocks policy B. And that which was a dangerous misunderstanding
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: of Trump's brain because he is most likely to pick
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: either massive overreaction or massive underreaction. And we ended up
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: with overreaction here.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And we should say from the Iranian side, and
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Ben Rhodes has been saying this to both of us
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: and to everyone else who will listen, we are by
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: no means out of the woods here. And while this
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: may have been sort of the official extent of the
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: retaliation in terms of what the Iranians were willing to
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: announce to the world, they still control proxy forces all
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: over the globe. The Ayatollah himself had said these military
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: actions are not sufficient for revenge. What is important is
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: that the corrupt president of America in this region comes
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: to an end. So they can bide their time. They
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: can wait months. There can be additional retaliation that perhaps
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: they do not take credit for, as they did this time.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: And again, you know, our operations against ISIS have been suspended.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: The Iraqis don't seem to want us in the country anymore. And,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: you know, perhaps most frighteningly, the Iranians have resumed their
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: pursuit of a nuclear weapon, which was on pause when
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump took office because of the Iran deal, which
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: maddeningly is not getting enough coverage because everyone has a
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: memory the size of a pea these days. works in
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: the news business.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: Well, in fairness, all of us, because for a brief millisecond,
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: I thought today was my wedding anniversary, thanks to you.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: So I have to look in the mirror on this one.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So Trump gives a set of remarks on the
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: retaliation with such an odd delivery that hashtag Adderall was
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: trending on Twitter. And in those remarks, he announced new
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: economic sanctions on Iran. He said he welcomes peace. And
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: then he actually blamed Barack Obama for the attack quote,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Iran's hostility substantially increased after the foolish Iran nuclear deal
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: was signed in 2013 and the missiles fired last night
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: at us and our allies were paid for with the
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: funds made available by the last administration. Just a fucking unbelievable, un-American,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: revolting thing to do blames his predecessor for an attack
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: on the forces that Obama actually led once as commander-in-chief
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: with a complete lie. But aside from just how disgusting
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: it was and the lie itself, how painfully stupid is
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: it to blame Barack Obama for what has happened over
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: the last week.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: Well, let me ask you a couple questions just so
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: we can get a level set of facts. When the
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: Iran deal was in effect, was Iran firing ballistic missiles
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: at U.S. military bases?
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: They were not. They were not.
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: Okay, thank you. When the Iran deal was in effect,
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: was Iran actively pursuing a nuclear weapon?
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: They were not, Dan.
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: Are they doing so now?
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: They are.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: Okay. I do not feel safer now.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: We're also, they weren't preventing us from going after ISIS.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: And they are now. Look, Donald Trump's Iran policy has failed.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: And what has happened over the last couple of weeks
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: and what has happened since he left the Iran deal
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: over the advice of his own national security team and
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: the entire international community is that the world has been
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: made less safer. Donald Trump has made America less safe.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: He's made the world less safe. And his Iran policy,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: the stated intent of his Iran policy is to get
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: them to agree to a better nuclear deal. How's that going?
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Is that going well? I don't think that's going too well.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: It is mind boggling where he was like in one
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: three minute period said Obama's Iran deal, Obama's multilateral Iran
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: deal is responsible for the situation we're in. And the
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: way to get out of the situation we're in is
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: a multilateral Iran deal.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, someone made this point. It's like he wants
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: a repeat of NAFTA 2.0, the new trade deal, except
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: that was something maybe he could control. He definitely can't
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: control this one. He's not getting a new Iran deal.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: He's not getting a new Iran deal. Because you tend
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: to not get a new Iran deal when you assassinate
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: the second most powerful government official in Iran. Usually they
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to go to the negotiating table then.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: And you pull out of the first deal with no.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Pretext.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: Just because. I saw this political cartoon, which I guess
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: they still exist, circulated on Twitter, which had Trump reading,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: which was funny in and of itself, the Iran deal.
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: And some aide says, Mr. President, what is wrong with
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: Obama's deal? And Trump says, Obama's signature, which kind of
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: summarizes the entire Trump presidency.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: With the Iran deal, with the Paris Climate Agreement, with
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: the Affordable Care Act, with just about everything Obama has done.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: That's the only thing that his pea brain can understand. Again,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: because he watches too much Fox News. So let's talk
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: about how this may or may not play out politically
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: for Trump. If there is a true de-escalation between the U.S.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: and Iran, what happens? What does that look like politically
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: in your opinion?
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: I've sort of come to the conclusion as we've talked
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: through impeachment, you know, Iran, everything that has happened over
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: the last couple of years, that the safest bet in
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: all of these things is status quo.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I was going to say the same thing.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: Is that ultimately the country is so polarized over Trump
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: and the Republican information bubble is so tight that None
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: of these events that we have experienced, even going to
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: the brink of war with Iran, is sufficient to fundamentally
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: change the political landscape. This is an election that's going
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: to be fought in the margins, and various outcomes here
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: could have some impact on the group of voters who
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: are either deciding between Trump and a Democrat, or Trump
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: a Democrat and a third party candidate, or not voting
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: and voting. And that could happen, and it's too early
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: to know what that is. But there's going to be no, like,
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: I don't see a world in which there is a
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: seismic shift, that any event creates a seismic shift in
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: the political calculus for 2020 between now and November.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, we should say, I asked this question
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: about if there is a sort of a permanent de-escalation somehow,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: which is a gigantic if. I think if there is
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: a protracted conflict between the U.S. and Iran or there's
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: further retaliation, It could significantly damage Trump's standing. I think
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: a few other factors here, because, you know, some of
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: these things could affect it on the margins. I think
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: the idea that this is any kind of political win
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: for Trump is obvious. fucking foolish. And, you know, so far,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: the polling has borne that out. A Reuters poll out Tuesday,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: 53% disapprove of his handling of Iran, an increase of
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: 9% since mid-December. That includes 50% of independents. An Economist
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: poll out Wednesday, 51% disapprove of his handling of Iran,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: only 41% approve. So, you know, those numbers aren't great
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: for him. I also think, and we've talked about this before,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: and this is sort of David Axelrod's chaos theory, anything
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: that sort of adds to the general sense of Trump
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: brings more chaos than he brings any kind of stability
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: or progress hurts him. And Look, most people in this
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: country didn't know who Soleimani was. They didn't really know
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: who Baghdadi was. That didn't help Trump either, killing Baghdadi,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: which Democrats were mostly behind, were all behind. And so
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: no one knows who Soleimani is, but they wake up
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: and see that the U.S. is almost on the brink
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: of war with Iran. And there's Trump, you know, tweeting
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: about the whole thing like an idiot. So you're right.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: His base stays with him because of the Fox information bubble,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: as always. They probably get whipped up just like they
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: did around impeachment. But I think most Americans either think
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: more chaos from Trump or status quo. Let's keep going.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: What do you think about his campaign running nearly 800
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: Facebook ads trumpeting the killing, which is according to our
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: friends at Acronym? I....
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: I have multiple somewhat conflicting thoughts on this. Like there
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: is few things that are more personally exhausting than running
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: through the mental exercise of imagine if Obama did this, right?
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: Like it's just so frustrating because it's so obviously true
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: that Trump gets away with things that if we did
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: would have been a six day political scandal. Imagine if
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: Obama's 2012 campaign had run 800 ads about the killing
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: of bin Laden.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Like, no.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: And so I'm not going to yell about it. I've
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: made several New Year's resolutions to stop shouting into the
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: void or tweeting into the void. I'm not going to
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: do that here. But I do think, it doesn't have
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: to be now, there is a longer discussion about why
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: Trump can get away with things that Obama couldn't. One
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: of them certainly is that Obama was a black man
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: and Trump was a white man. That is all. 100%
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: sure it's the same reason Trump could get away with
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: things that Hillary Clinton couldn't get away with, or Elizabeth
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Warren can't get away with, or Kamala Harris can't get
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: away with. That is just an inherent fact of media
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: coverage in American politics. But it also is the difference
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: between Democrats and Republicans. And the significant pro-conservative bias that
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: there is in our social media-fueled media ecosystem. And so
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: that is all true. My counterpoint to that is when
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: we have a Democrat in the White House... I hope
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: this is exactly what they do. Not necessarily about the
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: killing of an Iranian or something like that, but the
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: way to communicate in the modern media age is to
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: do it through all available channels, which includes digital ads.
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: So Trump is protecting himself in doing what is the
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: right strategy here. It's just one that is not currently
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: available to Democrats and we have resisted doing thus far.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, like if... you know, we were in the White
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: House again right now and had just passed the Affordable
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Care Act again, hopefully we would be running more than
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: 800 Facebook ads touting the Affordable Care Act's benefits and
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: what people could expect, as opposed to what we, you know,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: the limited ability we had last time back in 2010.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: So speaking of the politics of this, you know, Trump
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: already has political problems with Congress on Iran, and that
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: includes Republicans now, surprisingly. On Wednesday, top administration officials briefed
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: members of Congress on the intelligence that led Trump to
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: make the call to assassinate Soleimani. Many members were furious
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: about how bad the intel and the briefing were, especially
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Republican Senators Rand Paul and Mike Lee. Here is a
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: clip of Mike Lee coming out of the briefing.
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: I had hoped and expected to receive more information outlining
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: the legal, factual, and moral justification for the attack. I
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: was left somewhat unsatisfied on that front. The briefing lasted
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: only 75 minutes, whereupon our briefers left. This, however, is
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: not the biggest problem I have with the briefing, which
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: I would add was probably the worst briefing I've seen,
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: at least on a military issue, in the nine years
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: I've served in the United States Senate. What I found
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: so distressing about that briefing was that One of the
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: messages we received from the briefers was, do not debate,
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: do not discuss the issue of the appropriateness of further
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: military intervention against Iran. And that if you do you'll
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: be emboldening Iran. The implication being that we would somehow
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: be making America less safe by having a debate or
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: a discussion about the appropriateness of further military involvement against
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: the government of Iran. I find this insulting and demeaning,
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: not personally, but to the office that each of the
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: 100 senators in this building happens to hold. I find
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: it insulting and I find it demeaning to the Constitution
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: of the United States, to which we've all sworn an oath.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: The worst briefing I've seen, I found it insulting and
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: demeaning to Congress and to the Constitution. What'd you think
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: of that, Dan? And do you think that has any
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: kind of impact or will have any kind of impact?
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: Well, I would like to address Mike Lee, the Senator
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: from Utah who said this, which is, Mike, this is
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: your fucking fault. Because if, I don't remember Mike Lee
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: speaking up when the Trump White House refused to send
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: over the documents about Brett Kavanaugh that the Senate demanded.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: I don't remember Mike Lee speaking up when Congress refused
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: to turn over documents about the Trump spending money and
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: the Secret Service spending money at Trump properties. I don't
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: remember Mike Lee speaking up about impeachment witnesses or any
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: of the memos and paperwork requests. If you stay silent
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: when Trump sticks his thumb in Congress's eye on the
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: things that you don't care about politically... What do you
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: think is going to happen when you want information? Like
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: what behavior have you taught Trump? This is Mike Lee's fault.
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: This is Mitch McConnell's fault. This is all the Republicans'
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: fault because they have sent Trump the unequivocal message that
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: oversight is a choice. It is not a constitutional obligation.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: You do not have to submit to it. So this
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: is like no shit. This is what happened. You are
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: reaping what you've sown. I'm glad you spoke up. It
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: has given us great audio and it has made things
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: uncomfortable for the fucking yahoos who did the briefing. But
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: this is the fault of Republicans in Congress.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to put you down for not much impact.
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: Well, look, I think they're going to– I do think
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: that– I don't think it's going to change things dramatically,
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: but it– It makes it uncomfortable. Yeah, squeaky wheels from
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: your own party tend to get the grease. So I
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: suspect there will be something else. It also– we shouldn't
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: gloss over what Mike Lee said about the administration's message,
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: which is that if you– debate this or question this
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: or have oversight over it, you are giving Iran a win,
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: which is just a reminder that every time there is
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: the smell of war in the air, we are all
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: teleported back to 2002. And Coleman Powell is talking about
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: yellow cake, like nothing ever changes over this long period
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: of time.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Yes. And look, and this is, and a lot of
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: folks on the left will say this, and they are
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: absolutely right about it, that a focus on Trump as
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: the only bad guy here, as the true evil here,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: is very misguided, particularly when it comes to matters of
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: foreign policy. They have all proven themselves to be warmongers.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: Nikki Haley, fucking Nikki Haley, was out there saying on
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Fox News that Democrats are mourning the death of Soleimani,
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: something that she was so proud of saying that then
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: she tweeted out the clip of her saying it and
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: then tweeted that line in the tweet. which is fucking
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: revolting and disgusting. That's now become the lines, members of Congress.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: Doug Collins said the same thing. I saw him on
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: TV saying the same thing. Marco Rubio has been saying
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: similar bullshit, too, because he's awful. Like, these people are,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: you know, Trump does impulsive, crazy shit. But he is
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: being led around by Mike Pompeo and a bunch of
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: neocons in the Republican Party who have been causing trouble
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: and wanting war and wanting to bomb Iran for a
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: very long time. And it is just, you know, it's bad.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: It's very bad. It's not great, Dan.
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: It is not great.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: But, you know, what Congress can do, Congress, you know,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: they're trying to pass a War Powers Act. There's going
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: to be a vote on that. Of course, you know,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: Trump can veto that and it's hard to override a veto.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: There's also been you know, people like Bernie Sanders and
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: Ro Khanna in the House have been trying to make
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: sure that the administration pass a resolution that make sure
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: that the administration cannot spend any funds on, that Congress
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: won't authorize any funds for the administration to spend on,
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: you know, war with Iran. And so, you know, Congress
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: would have firmer ground if they pass something like that. So,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: you know, and then hopefully they can get some of
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: these Republicans like maybe a Mike Lee or Rand Paul
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: on board. But, you know, who knows if they have
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: the votes for that in the Senate? Certainly they could
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: pass it through the House. But that's where we are.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: That's where we are. And, once again, just like with impeachment,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: which we're about to talk about, the true check on
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: Trump and the Republicans here is to vote them all
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: out of office in November. That's it. That's what we got.
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: I mean, it is notable that both the Ro Khanna
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: legislation and the repeal of the 2001 authorization for use
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: in military force were in the original defense bill that
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: the House Democrats passed and then pulled it out in
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: negotiations with the Senate, which I... like I am sympathetic
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: to the, the challenges that you have in trying to
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: pass legislation in divided government, right? Like that is very hard.
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: And there are other very good things in those mills.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: And I also don't think if those things were in
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: place that Trump would not have done this because he
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: will just rely on, like he gives two fucks about
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: the constitution and has a very broad definition of article
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: one presidential power when a Republican's in office. And when
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: a Democrat's in office, he starts at article two. Um,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: But it is just this reminder that having the maximalist
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: position against Trump is usually the right thing to do.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: Like we would be stronger in a stronger position right
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: now if Democrats had not just all passed a bill
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: that took those things out.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: All right. Speaking of leverage and maximalist positions, let's talk
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: about impeachment. For a brief moment on Monday, it appeared
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: that maybe, just maybe, John Bolton would testify at Donald
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Trump's impeachment trial. But then Mitch McConnell said he refused
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: to agree to a fair trial that guaranteed relevant witnesses
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: and evidence. And then every single Republican senator agreed with
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: him on those rules. Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: every last one of them. Nancy Pelosi, meanwhile, has said
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: she wouldn't send articles of impeachment over to the Senate
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: until McConnell makes public his proposed rules for the trial,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: which he hasn't yet done. Okay, lots to unpack here. First,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: what does Mitch McConnell getting his way here actually look
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: like when it comes to the Senate trial?
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: Well, it means that we will begin this process without witnesses,
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: and that he has gotten the vulnerable members of his
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: caucus to agree to a trial plan that is favorable
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: to Trump as opposed to justice and truth in the
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: American public. That is what's happened. He has not closed
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: the door on that possibilities with this vote because it
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: could happen after the opening arguments. But McConnell is very
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: good at slowly turning up the heat until we all
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: realize we've been boiled. So I guess it would be
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: easier for these Republicans to vote for a cover-up a
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: second time after they've already done it once.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So just so people know how, and like I
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: just said, we don't know exactly what the rules are
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: going to look like or how the trial is going
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: to go, but he keeps saying we want to go
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: by the Clinton rules of the Clinton impeachment. And so
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: what that would look like is each side gets to
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: present their opening argument. The president's defense team and the
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: House prosecutors, whoever Nancy Pelosi decides are going to be
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: the House managers or prosecutors, they present their case. The
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: president's defense team presents their case. The senators then submit
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: questions for both sides in writing to John Roberts, who's
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: presiding over the trial. And then John Roberts will allow
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: both of those sides to answer the questions that the
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: senators submit. The reason they're submitting questions is so there's
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: no grandstanding and a bunch of speeches on the Senate
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: floor like we usually see. We should note that in
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: the Clinton impeachment trial, there were over 100 questions, I believe.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: So that process could take a bit of time. And
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: then once you get the opening arguments and the questions,
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: then they're going to eventually probably take a vote on
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: whether additional witnesses and evidence are necessary you know and
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: at that point Mitt Romney and Susan Collins and Lisa
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: Murkowski and a bunch of them are on the record
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: saying they would like to hear from John Bolton at
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: some point at least Mitt Romney certainly has said that
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: and I don't know I mean I know what you're
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: saying about McConnell but I still think that this is
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: really just kicking the can down the road on an
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: uncomfortable vote for a lot of these vulnerable Republican senators
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: They still might take the uncomfortable vote and just say, yeah,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: we're all in for the cover-up. In fact, you know,
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: if you were betting, you would probably bet that they'd
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: do that. But I still think it's going to be
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: uncomfortable when they have to take the vote later when
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: we've now heard on television very compelling arguments like we
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: heard in the House for why Trump committed an impeachable offense.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: And if the House prosecutors are smart, they will say
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: during their case, and we would know more If only
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: John Bolton would come tell us about why he called
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: this a drug deal. If only we'd get this email
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: from the House. If only we had this document. And
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: you're going to hear the House prosecutors saying that, and
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: then reporters are going to go to Mitt Romney and
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: to Susan Collins right after the trial, and they're going
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: to say, would you think about the House prosecutors saying
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: that we need to hear this from John Bolton? And,
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: of course, they'll run away from the cameras and slam
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: the door in their office, and that'll be that. But,
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: you know, it's going to be uncomfortable.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it will be as uncomfortable as we
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: all make it.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: Right, exactly, exactly. And so we should make it very uncomfortable.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: I mean, can we just say something about John Bolton first?
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do it.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: Come on. Let's not fall for this coy act where
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: he gets to be some sort of hero of truth,
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: pitch the book he's writing, and not also tell us
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: what he knows. He doesn't need a subpoena to talk.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: He's doing fucking interviews about Iran left and right.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Type out a fucking op-ed, send it to the New
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: York Times, done.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: I am currently sitting in my own home speaking into
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: a microphone. We are in the age of the internet.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: You don't even have to leave your fucking house to
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: tell people what you know. So I have zero faith
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: in him. He is a snake and he is finding
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: a way to both keep himself in good stead with
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: the larger Trump world and be seen as some sort
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: of George Conway-esque never Trump hero, and we should not
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: fucking fall for this. There is one other looming shoe
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: that could drop, which is, if you remember, sometime around
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: the holiday or since the holiday, but since you and
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: I last spoke via microphone, the court gave Lev Parnas
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: the permission to share what was on his phone with
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: the House Intel Committee. So there is potentially more information
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: and evidence that could come out in the coming weeks
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: that could also be used to put additional pressure on
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: these witnesses.
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: I think the other thing that Democrats have to continue
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: making the argument on is McConnell's entire argument is we're
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: just going to go with the Clinton impeachment trial rules.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: That should be just like the Clinton impeachment trial. He's
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: been saying this a million times now. So has Susan Collins,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: Lisa Murkowski. The Clinton impeachment trial eventually had witnesses. When they,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: after the opening arguments, after they went through all this,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: they did have witnesses. And their witnesses were witnesses that
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: the American people had already heard from during a two-year
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: investigation where there were depositions. So they just called the
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: same witnesses again, let alone new witnesses who have said,
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: like John Bolton has said, that they have new relevant testimony.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: And there was evidence. And we have, again here, evidence
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: that is relevant to the case because we have emails
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: that the White House is withholding and all this kind
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: of stuff. And that wasn't even true in the Clinton
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: impeachment that the White House was withholding a bunch of
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: documents and evidence. And I think the Democrats need to
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: say over and over again, a vast majority of the
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: American people, including even I think a plurality of Republicans
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: in some polls, believe that these witnesses should testify, that
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration senior officials should testify in the trial.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: They believe that is fair. People are opposed, especially in
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: there was another poll in just the state's. that Susan
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: Collins and Cory Gardner and Martha McSally represent, that they're
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: up in 2020, that those constituents want these people to testify.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: They believe there should be evidence. They believe there should
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: be witnesses. And I think Democrats need to hammer those
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: points over the next couple of weeks, for sure.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: One other point on this, which is McConnell keeps saying,
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: Clinton rules, Clinton rules, Clinton rules. Now, Tom Daschle was
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: a Senate Democratic leader during the Clinton impeachment. And he
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: refused to speak to the White House, coordinate with the
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: White House, share a strategy with the White House because
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: he thought it was improper. So if McConnell wants the
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: Clinton rules, then he should be behaving like the Senate
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: Democrats did during the Clinton impeachment trial. And McConnell was
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: at the White House yesterday meeting with Trump to brief
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: him on the strategy. And so he is swimming in
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: a swamp of conflict of interest. And he should not
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: be allowed to get away with that because he is
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: not conducting this like the Democrats did. conducted an impeachment
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: trial of a president from their own party. And he's
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: doing the exact opposite of that. And it is historically
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: unprecedented and it should be called out.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: So last thing on this, what do you think, you know,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: in the last couple of days, a couple of Democratic
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: senators have been getting antsy and have sort of called
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: on Pelosi to send over the articles of impeachment because
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: they want to get going on this trial. Pelosi today,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: I believe, said she's ready to send them over, but
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: she still wants to see the rules from McConnell. I
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: tend to think this is like much ado about nothing here.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: Like a lot of the Hill reporters and DC insiders
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: think this is all like a big deal. It seems
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: to not matter to me whether she sends them over today, tomorrow,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: next week. Like she's going to send them over in
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks. I think she has achieved
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: her goal here, which is to put a spotlight on
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell's rigged trial. which has the spotlight has been
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: on that for the last couple weeks as opposed to
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: her just transmitting the articles right before Christmas and McConnell
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: maybe shutting the whole thing down so I think she
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: got her win here and you know people are going
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: to be like Pelosi didn't have leverage she won she
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: lost this or that I just don't think it matters
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: that much but I don't know what you think.
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah I agree Pelosi is the savviest legislator of her
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: generation or any other generation and so she obviously knows
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: she doesn't have leverage to make McConnell do what she
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: wants But she does know that by holding the articles,
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: she would force a conversation about the form of the trial.
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: And it would put additional pressure, not just on McConnell,
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: but on the vulnerable Senate Republicans. And they would have
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: to sort of stew in their own complicity for a
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: few weeks. And by creating this conflict with McConnell, she
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: generated more attention to the conversation. So she did the
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: right thing. None of it is massively consequential one way
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: or the other, but I think she knew what her
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: goal was and she achieved it. I would also say
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: to the Senate Democratic senators who were, quote unquote, calling
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: on Pelosi, don't call on her. Call her, Dianne Feinstein.
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure your offices are like in the same
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: building in San Francisco. Like, pick up the phone, call her.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: There is no need to basically just like print hashtag
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: Dems and Disarray on your forehead and walk out and
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: talk to the press. Just communicate a message. You've been
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: friends for decades.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: It's wild, man. I don't get how... Look, there are
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: times on this podcast where we say things about Democrats
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, maybe we should have just transmitted our
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: criticism over email to people we know. And that's our
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: fucking podcast. You're a fucking United States Senator or you're
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: a member of the House. Stop talking to fucking reporters
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: in the halls about things that are going to cause
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: your party problems. Pick up the fucking phone and call
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: your friends. It is really unbelievable. They never learn.
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's wild.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: They never learn. Oh, and one more thing we should
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: say on Bolton. I do think, and Brian Boitler wrote
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: a great piece about this on cricket.com, that the House
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: should subpoena Bolton because now he has said he would
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: respond to a subpoena from the Senate, which makes any
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: kind of rejection of a House subpoena legally dubious at
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: best since he said he would respond to a Senate subpoena.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: In the House, Democrats do have subpoena power. Now, the
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: House could subpoena Bolton and then Trump could try to
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: exert executive privilege and say, no, he can't testify because
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: it's national security and blah, blah, blah. And then I
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: guess they end up back in court. But I think
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: it's worth a shot if for no other reason than
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: to let people know and to remind people that we
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: do want John Bolton's testimony because it is relevant in
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: this trial. So I don't see how it can hurt
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: for the House Democrats to subpoena Bolton. But I don't know,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: do you agree?
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: I think the way in which it would hurt would
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: be if it forces a legal confrontation over it and
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: then gives Trump and Bolton the out to just wait
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: for the legal confrontation to conclude.
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: Like Schiff has thought about this. He has, I'm sure,
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: talked to Schumer or someone about this and they have
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: a plan. And I actually, I understand Brian's point. I
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: think you have to let this play itself out in
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: the Senate for a before you make a decision. And
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: if the ultimate conclusion is the Senate is not going
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: to hear from witnesses for whatever reason McConnell decides or
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: whatever happens, then you have to push the case in
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: that house. But if you were to do it now,
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: I think it undermines the case of the Senate and
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: gives an out to the Senate Republicans and to, uh,
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: Bolton himself, who I think is probably also looking for
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: an out.
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about 2020. Um, It's endorsement season here in
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: the Democratic primary. Last week, Joe Biden received the endorsement
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: of four freshman House members who flipped red districts in
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: the 2018 midterms. Conor Lamb, Elaine Luria, friend of the
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: pod Chrissy Houlihan, friend of the pod Abby Finkenhauer of Iowa.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: And today, Bernie Sanders received the endorsement of the Sunrise Movement,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: which is a movement of young people fighting climate change.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: And maybe the most notable endorsement recently, Elizabeth Warren won
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: the support of former presidential candidate Julian Castro this week. Dan,
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: we really haven't talked about endorsements much, but how big
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: of a deal are they in general?
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: Well, we haven't talked about it much because there have
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: been almost no endorsements. There are like a shockingly few
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: number of endorsements in this election. Very few House members
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: have picked sides. Like, I mean, the biggest ones I
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: think have been obviously AOC endorsing Bernie, prior to the
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: list you just gave us, Ilhan Omar endorsing Bernie. There
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: have been a lot of endorsements within one's home state, right?
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: Ayanna Pressley, which is, I think, a very important endorsement
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: for Warren. Kamala Harris had the endorsement of a lot
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: of the exciting freshman members of the California delegation. But
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: endorsements are good for two things, and they run in
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: various degrees. Endorsements from politicians, and then we can talk
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: about the Sunrise Movement separately, I think. But they are
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: good for news. Your goal is to try to generate
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: good news for your campaign, and endorsements are good. And
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: Elizabeth Warren, for a whole set of reasons, has been
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: running through a tough media cycle. And the Julian Castro
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: endorsement was sort of a circuit breaker on that. Like, oh,
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: here's a piece of good news. Here, big rally speaks
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: to sort of the broader coalition that she could have.
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: And then the other reason I think they're very valuable
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: is they give you someone who can be on the
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: trail with you to generate excitement, additional crowds, additional media coverage,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: or be out there without you, right? And And Castro,
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: you know, has spent a lot of time in Iowa.
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: If he's out there campaigning for Warren, he can, like,
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: they can go together and they can go separate. And
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: Castro can still get a crowd and still draw attention.
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: And it is sort of a force multiplier for the
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: Warren campaign.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I do think he'll be a very good
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: surrogate for her campaign. Obviously, you know, it wasn't a
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: huge surprise that Castro endorsed Warren because they've been very
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: friendly throughout the primary campaign. And I think that, you know,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: Julian Castro did not get a lot of support in
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: the primary in the polls, but he has become, you know,
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: beloved by the progressive wing of the party because, you know,
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: he's taken a lot of sort of courageous progressive positions
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: in this race. And I think in the, when he
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: endorsed her and then campaigned with her at an event
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: in Brooklyn, I thought he did a great job as
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: a surrogate for her. You know, he made a really
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: good case for her. So I think you're right. Like
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: on the margins, these things help. I would say that
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: probably the biggest endorsement or the most effective endorsement of
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: the cycle still has probably been AOC with Bernie, because
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: if AOC had just simply sat out or if she
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: had endorsed Warren, I think, you know, Bernie has clearly
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: done well over the last couple of months because he's
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: consolidated the left. And a lot of that support has
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: come from Elizabeth Warren. And you can sort of pinpoint
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: the moment that started happening to around when AOC endorsed him.
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: And so, yeah, I think that was sort of a
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: big deal.
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: The endorsements are, and we should talk about the Biden
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: endorsements because I think they're also pretty significant, but the
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: endorsements sort of come in different flavors. One, like the
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: ones that are the most, when they're surprising are perhaps
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: the most valuable, right? Like, I mean, one of the
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: worst days on the Obama campaign in 2008 was when
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: John Lewis endorsed Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama.
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: I remember that very well.
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, just, I remember being, we were in this,
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: we were in this meeting with Obama and it was like, uh,
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: We were in a tough period of the campaign anyway,
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: and we had just spent several hours in a conference
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: room plotting out how we were going to get out
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: of this mess. And we all felt really good about
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: our plan. And Obama was like, let's go do this.
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: And then he takes out his phone and he said, huh.
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: He looks at an email and says, John Lewis has
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: tried to call me like nine times. And we're just like, fuck.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: And then he opened the door and one of his
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: political staffers outside came in to tell us that John
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: Lewis had been calling to say he was going to
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: endorse Hillary Clinton in the morning and it was just
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: like a fucking gut punch.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: And one of the better days was when Ted Kennedy
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: decided to endorse Barack Obama because the Kennedys had been
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: close to the Clintons.
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: Or when John Lewis flipped his endorsement back to Obama.
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: That was a pretty great day too.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: That was good too. Yeah, that was good too.
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: But so like if AOC had endorsed Warren, that would
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: have been a brutal blow for Bernie. And I think
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: a lot of people thought she might sit out much
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: like Warren sat out the primary between Clinton and Sanders
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: until very, very late. So not getting endorsement could also
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: be a problem. The Biden one is once or significant
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: because– and these may be the best endorsements of all–
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: are the ones that speak to your larger message and story.
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: And Biden's argument is very explicitly electable, that he is
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: the most electable candidate. He is the candidate who can
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: go everywhere and campaign everywhere. And he got endorsements from
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: a group of the most vulnerable– House freshmen who won
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: in very hard districts. And so the fact that they
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: cast their lot with Biden is a data point that
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: Biden can use to make his larger case.
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I saw someone on Twitter say when these endorsements
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: were announced, oh, the Democratic establishment is rallying around Biden,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: which made me laugh because I was like, these are
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: all first term House members who had never been in
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: politics before, just decided to run it. There's some of
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: the people, young people who all ran in 2018 and um,
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: three of them women who, you know, everyone was very
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: excited about in 2018 because they were able to, they
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: were young, exciting candidates who flipped red districts, you know?
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: And like you said, I do think whether they, they,
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: they don't have the star power of AOC, but like
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: you said, they fit with Biden's story and especially his
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: electability argument. And so I think in that sense, they
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: are valuable, especially Abby Finkenauer in Iowa, because, you know,
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: everyone's trying to win Iowa and there's only, uh, Two
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: new Democratic congresswomen from Iowa, Abby Finkenauer and Cindy Axne
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: in that 2018 class. And, you know, one of them's
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: off the sidelines now and endorsing Joe Biden. So that's something.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: So what do you think about the Sunrise Movement endorsing Bernie?
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: I think it's a huge deal. I think it is
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: politically very important because this is one of those surprise
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: endorsements where most people thought they would stay on the
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: sidelines and not endorse between Warren and Bernie and I
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: guess some of the other candidates. But So the fact
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: that they chose to do this, they chose to do
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: it overwhelmingly. I think it was a 75% win in
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: terms of their internal vote for Bernie. But it's also
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: a ton of very savvy, very motivated organizers who are
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: now going to be out there working for Bernie in
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: all the Super Tuesday states and elsewhere. And so I
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: think it's a really big deal. And it's also just
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: sort of symbolic of the tremendous success that Bernie Sanders'
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: campaign has had over the last six to eight weeks of,
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: as you said it, consolidating a lot of the activists left. And,
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: and they've sort of been this decision among a lot
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: of them that the best way to have a progressive
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: nominee and president is to line up behind Bernie Sanders.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: And that has come at a cost for some of
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: the other candidates born, most notably who are depending on
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: some portion of that support or being the one who
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: consolidated it.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: Um, Let's finish up with one of our favorite topics here,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: political advertising. This week we learned that Mike Bloomberg and
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump are each planning on running an ad during
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. They've both taken out 60 seconds of
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: advertising that will cost $ 10 million each. Good use of money?
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, whenever I think of Bloomberg spending money, it
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: reminds me of this conversation that Howie and I have
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: whenever we're watching the NBA Finals and there'll be these
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: people sitting in courtside seats. They paid $ 13, 000 for that
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: seat or $ 20, 000 for that seat. She's like, that's insane.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: I'm like, yeah, but that person is worth $ 2 billion.
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: It's like the mathematical equivalent of my $ 100 ticket to
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: the game three months ago or whatever. That's a little
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: bit like all things with Bloomberg is if you have
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: endless amounts of money, what's the big deal?
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: Why not do a 60-second ad in the Super Bowl?
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: It's sort of like our decision about whether we're going
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: to make lunch or order lunch, right? It has the
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: same financial consequences.
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: So you're Mike Bloomberg, you have 60 seconds. Um, you know,
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: more people are going to watch this ad than maybe
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: anything else in your entire campaign. Uh, what do you say?
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: Well, that to me is the real question because I
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: think the, the super, the value of a Superbowl ad,
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: it's so expensive because you're not, you're not just paying
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: for that massive audience. So that, that audience is massive,
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: particularly in our sort of disaggregated media environment. We were
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: also paying for the fact of having a Super Bowl
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: ad where the news media and podcasters will discuss the
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: fact we're having a Super Bowl ad. It has a head.
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: It has a tail. It theoretically will be talked about
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: before and after the 60 seconds you get. But– you
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: gotta make your ad good, right? If he just runs
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: the same.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: Good advice.
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: Well, and by good, like, yes, yes, you are welcome.
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: Michael Bloomberg, that one's free. The next one you gotta
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: pay for. But by that, I mean, it's gotta be,
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: it has to have some virality to it, right? If
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: it's just the same ad, you're not getting what you
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: paid for because you're really paying for the attention that
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: a Super Bowl ad gets for the fact that it's
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: a Super Bowl ad. And so if it is just
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: the totally- fine ads that he has been running during
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: every NFL game I've seen for the last like six weeks.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: I think that's a waste of money now who cares?
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: Cause he's got endless amounts of money, but I think
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: that you have to do something interesting. You have to
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: catch attention because you're competing. Like this is the most
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: brutal ad competition ever. It's not just like car ads,
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: soda ad beer ad. It's like, you know, ad companies
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: and ad firms have been spending an entire year planning
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: for how they're going to have an amazing, catchy ad
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: that people will talk about. And so if it's just
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: like amazing Doritos ad with Beyonce, Lizzo, and Paul Rudd,
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: or something obscene like that, and then it's just like
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: Mike Bloomberg talking about climate change, I don't think that's
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: really going to work. Or Donald Trump talking about whatever
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: the fuck Donald Trump talks about.
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, we are in a very cynical, mean,
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: nasty age where the internet just brutally mocks everything, especially ads,
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: or in the Super Bowl. I've noticed this over the
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: last couple years in the Super Bowl. You'd watch Super
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: Bowl ads, and you'd talk to the people at your
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl party about the ads. Now we all talk
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: about them together on Twitter, and usually the reviews aren't
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: very great for most of them. There's usually one or
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: two that stand out that everyone likes. And so if
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: you're Mike Bloomberg, the potential for being mocked is extraordinarily high,
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: And so I would think about doing something that is
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: mostly anti-Trump, that can at least rally Democrats together, which
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: is part of his stated rationale for running here, that
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: he's worried about Donald Trump winning. I would make it
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: very light on Mike Bloomberg himself and very heavy on
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump. And I would, you know, he's a rich guy.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: He can call in sort of creative ad people from
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: all over the country and the world. I would go
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: way outside of the box and make it seem like
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: it's not your typical political commercial, that it is like
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: a very different kind of ad. I would think different
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: would be at the top of the list there. And
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: for Trump, I would imagine that Trump is going to
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: try to run a very morning in America type ad
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: that is not like anything Trump usually says in his
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: speeches or at his rallies. I think it's going to
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: try to take credit. He's He's going to try to
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: take credit for terrorist killings. Maybe they'll revive what we
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: both thought was a pretty clever message that's, you know,
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: I might not be a nice guy, but sometimes it
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: takes someone who's not a nice guy to shake up
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: Washington kind of thing, which is them owning him being
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: an asshole, which I actually think is fairly smart of
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: their campaign. And so I would imagine the Trump campaign ad,
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: it could be, I won't say good, but better than,
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: certainly better than anything we hear from Donald Trump or
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: see from his tweets. Yes.
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: The, I thought you're basically describing what was Trump's world
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: series ad, um, which was a frighteningly good ad. And
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: it's like, these things are particularly valuable for Trump because
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: he is incapable of having a message coming out of
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: his mouth or his Twitter feed because he has no
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: discipline or attention span or impulse control. But on an ad,
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: like you can have a message. Um, The one question
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: I have for you is, do you think Superbowl ads
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: matter as much now as they used to? I know
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: you've been a frequent Superbowl watcher because you're a Patriots fan.
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: So you've basically been in the Superbowl. This isn't even
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: a Patriots attack. I'm not even going to ask you
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: if you're going to watch the Superbowl this year. But like,
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: I remember for years and years and years, like people
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: were more likely, there was such focus on the ads
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: that the people were almost more likely to go to
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: the bathroom during the game than during the commercials because
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: you wanted to see what the ads were. Because also
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: for many years, the Super Bowl was terrible, even though
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: it's been pretty good for the last several years. So
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: you wouldn't want to miss that. But now I feel
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: like I've seen most of the ads or read about
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: them before they come because of YouTube. And if I
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: miss it when it airs, I will see it. on
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: Twitter or elsewhere afterwards, right? Like you're not, in the
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: old days, you would see it. If you didn't see
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: it when it happened, you may not see.
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: It, right?
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: I agree with you. I don't think they matter as much.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: I think it's the problem with content writ large right now,
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: which is there's such a glut of content. And there is,
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: among all of these advertising firms and marketing agencies and
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: consulting companies, you know, in past lives, we've worked with
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: them all. They all sort of have the same advice,
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: which is they're all trying for virality, right? They want
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: their ad to go viral. And there is now a
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: certain quality of an ad that you can tell is
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: trying to go viral that almost makes it more cheesy
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: and obvious and inauthentic. And I think there is not
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: enough innovation in advertising anymore either. And in fairness, that's
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: because it's harder to surprise people because there's so much
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: content and because everything has been done. And so I
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: think there is such a premium on trying to find
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: something that is truly different, that will truly grab people's attention.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: And I do think for the last couple of years,
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: companies just haven't done that very well. I remember like
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: years before that, a couple of years before that, there
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: was a good run of Super Bowl ads. But I
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: feel like the last couple of years, they've all been
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: sort of shitty.
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, you could expand this concept about sort of the...
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: the insatiable search for virality to.
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: Everything, right?
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: It is why.
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure.
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: It's why Cats is in theaters, right? I swear to God,
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: it is like... It is this trying to... Starting with
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: a premise of what would go viral and then working
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: backwards to the product is a.
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: Such a mistake.
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: And it is endemic to American politics in this age.
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: You could do autopsies of many campaigns that have failed
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: in part because of this approach. It's like, there's a
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: longer conversation, but it is a fascinating thing that stretches
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: through advertising, movies, television, politics.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: It's, it's, and it's all, well, it all comes from
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: these fucking consulting advertising firms. I remember back in our
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: old lives when, you know, Tommy and I had a
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: company briefly, uh, that did this kind of stuff. It
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: was around the time of the ice bucket challenge. Remember
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: the ice bucket challenge for ALS, which was, you know,
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: went viral and it was for very, very good cause. Um,
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: and multiple firms, uh, that we came in contact with
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: would say things like, would sit clients down and say,
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: all right, we need to figure out what our ice
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: bucket challenge is. We need an ice bucket challenge for
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: X or for Y. And so they take something that
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: has gone viral because it was authentic and real and exciting.
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: And then they try to go backwards and try to,
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: you know, generate it that way. And it's just such
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: a fucking mistake, right? It has to start from an
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: authentic position, not work backwards towards one.
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, it is the fault, obviously, in some
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: ways of sort of one-dimensional thinking from consultants and advertising
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: executives and business people and creative people and politicians. But
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: it's also a product of an algorithmic-based advertising and media
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: ecosystem where you need to generate conversation to get coverage.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: And if you don't, you won't.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: It's like, I mean, this is, we've gone far beyond it,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: but Hallie and I watched the two popes last night,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: which is a phenomenal, phenomenal movie.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: Right. I loved it. I loved the two popes, but.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: Like there was so much more conversation about the Irishman
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: in part because everyone was screaming about how the Irishman
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: was too long, which I don't really agree with, but
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: there was no, like no one like two, like the
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: two popes did not, there was no controversy.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: So there was no conversation about, there was no trending.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: And then I guess it was just like a good
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: movie that most people will not see because they will
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: not seek it out because it never pierced the social
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: conversation that determines what is watched and what isn't or
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: what is consumed or what isn't or what's talked about
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: or what isn't. All of these things we just talked
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: about are not just responsible for cats, they're also responsible
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: for Trump. More on that later.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah. No, it is true. All of this is politically
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: related and it all applies to this campaign and to politics. Okay,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: when we come back, we will talk to Democratic presidential candidate,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: Senator Elizabeth Warren. On the phone today, we have Senator
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren. Senator, welcome back to the pod.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 4: Thank you. It's always good to be at the pod.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, good to talk to you. So you attended the
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: classified briefing yesterday about the Soleimani assassination incident. Do you
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: think that the administration is lying about their legal rationale
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: for launching the strike, which was that there was an
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: imminent threat to U.S. forces?
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: Well, they just certainly couldn't outline what the imminent threat
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: was yesterday. And, you know, I think it was pretty clear.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: Republicans and Democrats left that briefing, not all Republicans, but
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: some Republicans, and I think nearly all the Democrats left
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: it saying, you just never made the case. and really
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 4: didn't even seem to try very hard. It was kind
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 4: of one of these, it was an imminent threat, let's
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 4: move on.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: If you're president, how do you even begin to get
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: the Iranians back to the negotiating table for another nuclear
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: deal at this point?
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: I think we start with the example that President Obama
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: laid out for us during his administration. I don't have
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 4: to tell you all, it's painstaking work. You've got to
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: prove your credibility. But I actually think it starts with
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 4: our allies. We get on the same page with our allies.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: We start with modest goals. We find out whether or
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: not we can talk to each other in a more
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 4: modest level and then see if we can build some trust,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 4: willing to do a lot of stuff through back channel
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: in order to be able to you know, let everyone
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 4: save face so no one is getting squeezed. And you
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 4: build up that trust. And then we saw that, what
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: could happen from that when the Obama administration was able,
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 4: with our allies, both to put some serious economic sanctions
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 4: on Iran, get on to the negotiating table. And then
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: the amazing team, when John Kerry and Ernie Moniz You've
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: got this longtime experienced skilled diplomat and this nuclear scientist
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 4: who really sit together and work through the diplomatic aspects
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: of it, but also the very technical scientific aspects of it,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: and get to an arrangement that Iran could live with domestically,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: was not threatening to Iran, but that permitted substantial verification
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 4: that Iran was really abiding by the deal, that the
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 4: economic sanctions had been put in a place that let
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 4: Iran's economy start to recover, but made it clear there
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 4: were going to be some sanctions that would stay in
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 4: place until Iran took other steps separate from the nuclear
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 4: negotiations to bring them back. more into the family of nations,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: you know, to drop their support for Hezbollah and other
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: terrorists and so on. And you really watched the building
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 4: on that. I watched it during the negotiations. And, you know,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 4: I'm the first to say I was a very early
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 4: supporter of the Iran nuclear deal. And ultimately what came
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 4: out was not perfect. There were many who wanted to say, oh,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: this part should have been and that part should have been.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 4: But the truth is it's an extraordinary move forward from
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: the perspective of both halting Iran's nuclear development and suggesting
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: that we could build a world in which nuclear proliferation
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 4: was going to stop or at least halt for an
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 4: extended period of time and then try to build out
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: from there, build out more. Economic integration, build out, you know,
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 4: how you open up your society a bit more, how
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 4: you let your middle class have more of a voice domestically,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 4: and that helps internationally, all of those pieces. And it's
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 4: like Donald Trump came in and said, oh, Barack Obama
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: did that, so I have to do the opposite.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, like with everything else. So you released a bankruptcy
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: plan a couple of days ago that would fix pieces
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: of the law Congress passed back in 2005, a law
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: that you've criticized in the past, Joe Biden, for supporting.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: I imagine this might be an issue we hear about
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: next week's debate, if there is a debate. So Biden's
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: campaign has said that basically the bill was going to
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: pass the Republican Congress and be signed by George Bush anyway.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: So Biden got in there and he negotiated some concessions
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: that helped middle class families. including making child support and alimony,
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: you know, priority for debt payments, stuff like that. What
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: do you say to that argument that, yeah, the bill
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: wasn't great, but it was important and good to make
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: it better?
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: My views on this are very well known. They're publicly documented.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 4: This was not just something that happened in 2005. It
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: had been a fight that had been going on for
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: a decade.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: And....
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 4: I had been able, working with consumer groups, to fend
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 4: off the efforts to take the legs out from underneath
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 4: the bankruptcy laws for nearly a decade that we had
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 4: really been in that fight. While the credit card companies
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 4: had figured out they could expand their profits if they
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 4: could just get the bankruptcy laws to be a little
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 4: less helpful to families who were head over heels in
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 4: medical debt to people who've lost a job, to someone
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: who had a death or divorce in the family, which
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: those three things accounted for about 90% of all the
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: folks in bankruptcy. So, you know, my views on this
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 4: one are well documented. They're out there and they have
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: not changed. I disagree with the way that the Biden
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: campaign wants to describe this.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: No, it's funny. I remember when I was looking at this,
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: when I was looking up for this question, uh... you
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: know obama was obviously as a senator then on the
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: other side of this issue on your side of this
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: issue and uh... it was one of the first four
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: statements i ever wrote form and we quoted you in
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: the if the floor statement as a as a bankruptcy
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: professor who really cared about this kind of stuff so
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: it was uh... time is a flat circle yeah uh.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: it really want to know because such a watching this
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 4: go forward i remember when in america hands fairly relative
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: to the rest of the world has bankruptcy laws that
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 4: let people come in and wipe out their past debts.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 4: And the families who do this always remember are families
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 4: for whom they are in so much financial trouble that
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 4: dead flat broke looks like a great improvement from where
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 4: they are. And the whole idea behind it historically was
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: you want people to be able to get back on
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 4: their feet so they have a reason to go out
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 4: and have a job so that they can hang on
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 4: to a house maybe, and their kids won't be made homeless.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: and not be able to go to school not finish
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: their education you'll cut the long the larger implications but
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 4: it's also part of the fact that in America we
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 4: don't have nearly as big a social safety net yeah
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 4: as in much of the rest of the world you
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: go bankrupt in America over medical bills you don't go
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: bankrupt in much of Europe, for example, over medical bills.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 4: You go bankrupt over trying to get an education and
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 4: getting caught head over heels in student loan debt, not
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 4: in much of the rest of the world. You go
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 4: bankrupt trying to get a job and keep a kid
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: in daycare and pay for housing, not so much in
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 4: the rest of the world. So when the credit card
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 4: companies figured out that they could they could help close
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 4: that door to bankruptcy and literally keep hundreds of thousands
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 4: of people a year from filing for bankruptcy. Think about
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 4: it this way. It's not those people got any richer.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: It's that the credit card companies just got a longer
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: space to try to squeeze them harder for a few
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: more interest payments, get them to borrow from their friends
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 4: and family, And we'd read the stories in our research
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 4: of people, women who sold their wedding rings to be
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: able to just try to pay something down to stop
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 4: the collection calls. That's what the credit card companies want,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: and that's what they got in 2005. And that's why
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 4: then-Senator Obama and I were on the same side in
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 4: this fight.
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: So caucus season is upon us, and I imagine that
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: you and your campaign are making and will be making
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: many final pitches to undecided voters in the weeks to come.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: What's your pitch to a young, progressive college student, say
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: from Iowa State, who really likes you, really likes Bernie Sanders,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: and is having a really hard time deciding between the
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: two of you? What do you say to that voter?
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: Well, I think I'd start. I know how to fight
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 4: and I know how to win. So help me fight
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 4: and help me win because we have such an incredible
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: opportunity here. You know, I will be the only person
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: on the debate stage whenever that debate occurs who has
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 4: beaten a popular incumbent Republican any time in the past
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: 30 years. I've been out there in these fights to win.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: When I first ran for the Senate in 2012, you
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 4: may remember this. I had been working for President Obama
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 4: as his assistant, setting up the consumer agency. The Republicans
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: had pre-rejected me and said I could never be the
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 4: head of the agency. And President Obama said, go back
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 4: to Massachusetts and run for that Senate seat. And when
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: I got back to Massachusetts, I thought, you know, this
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 4: is not me. I never thought I'd run for elected office.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 4: And I was going to teach and do the research.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 4: And people said to me, look, we've got this popular
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 4: incumbent Republican. He had about a 65% approval rating. He's
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 4: been here in office for just a couple of years.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 4: He just beat a very qualified woman. You should definitely run.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: you won't win but you should definitely run you know
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 4: to which my response is democrats get a better sales
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 4: pitch but i got in that race and i started
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 4: out way down and i just kept fighting and i
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 4: ended up beating him by seven and a half points
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 4: you know to me it's your fight from the heart
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 4: for what you believe in and Running for president has
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 4: been this extraordinary opportunity to talk about what's broken in
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 4: our country, to really try to give it a frame
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 4: and how we can build a country going forward that
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 4: is different. I think the big contrast that we're going
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 4: to make with Donald Trump in the general election, I
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: think the one that gives us the best chance of
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 4: winning is over corruption. And it's the corruption of money
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 4: in Washington. It's the donors, but it's also the lobbyists
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 4: and the lawyers and the bought-and-paid-for experts and the bought-and-paid-for
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 4: think tanks that just flood Washington. They flood Congress on
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 4: just create a little exception for us. Can't we just
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: rewrite that rule just a little bit to help us?
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 4: And they do that for all the agencies, for all
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 4: the departments, until the whole game is tilted wildly in
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: favor of those who are already rich and powerful and
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: against everyone else. How do you end up in a
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 4: democracy where a company like Amazon proudly announces, we just
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: made $ 10 billion in profits and we're paying zero in taxes?
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: How many lobbying dollars did it take them to get there?
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 4: But they got there. So I see this as who
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 4: government works for. And for a generation coming of age now,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 4: this has got to be the crucial question. My two-cent
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 4: wealth tax is all about saying if you've already got
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 4: a great fortune, more than $ 50 million, pitch in two
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 4: cents on the part above $ 50 million. So you're 50
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 4: millionth in the first dollar. Pitch in two cents, two
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 4: cents on every dollar above that, a couple of pennies
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 4: more once you hit a billion. And do you know
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 4: what that money lets us do? Just think about this.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 4: It lets us do universal childcare for every baby in
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 4: this country. That means every mama can finish her education.
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 4: Every parent can get a job and not have to
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 4: worry about their kids. Their kids can be in high-quality care.
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 4: It lets us do universal childcare. Pre-K for every 3-year-old
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 4: and 4-year-old. It lets us stop exploiting the largely women,
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 4: largely black and brown women who do this work and
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 4: raise the wages of every child care worker and preschool
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: teacher in America. It lets us put $ 800 billion, new dollars,
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 4: into our public school system and fully fund IDEA so
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 4: children with disabilities get 100% funding for the education they
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 4: need It would let us make technical school, two-year college,
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 4: four-year college tuition free. Let us put $ 50 billion into
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 4: historically black colleges and universities and other minority-serving institutions. That
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 4: would really help level the playing field. And one more,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: it would let us cancel student loan debt for 43
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 4: million Americans. And I use that as just one example.
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 4: A two-cent wealth tax on the people who've made it big,
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 4: people who are already growing their fortunes at 4%, 6%, 8%, 10%,
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 4: just a two-cent wealth tax. We invest in an entire generation.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 4: And once you start talking about making government work, not
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 4: just for the lobbyists and lawyers and big donors, that's
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 4: how you tackle climate change. That's how you tackle gun safety.
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 4: It's how we tackle housing costs. It's how we tackle
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 4: making this the country that invests and invests in the future,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 4: the country that lives its values every day. We have
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 4: such an opportunity to do that in 2020, but it's
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: going to take all of us in this fight.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: So I sat down with a lot of swing state
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: voters recently for this little project I'm doing, and just
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: about all of them want what seem to be two
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: conflicting things. So first, they're sick of all the corruption
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: in Washington and want a government that actually does something
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: to improve their lives, especially when it comes to health
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: care costs and student loans. And everything your campaign is about,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: everything you were just saying. But then in the next breath,
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: they say, I'm really tired of all the fighting and
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: the nastiness and the pettiness in Washington. And I just
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: I want someone who can bring us all together. Is
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: it possible to be a president who does both of
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: those things in this political environment with this Republican Party?
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 4: Absolutely. And let me tell you how. I was born
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: and raised in Oklahoma. All three of my older brothers
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 4: are now back in Oklahoma. They all three live there.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 4: And one is a Democrat, two are Republicans. Think about
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 4: that for a second. So we can certainly get together.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 4: And two of my brothers can give the Republican talking
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 4: points and One of my brothers and I can give
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 4: the Democratic talking points, and we can stay engaged in
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 4: that same old battle. Or we can shake up how
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 4: we look at it and use a different frame. So
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 4: think about the point made about corruption. When I talk
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 4: about the corporations that made billions of dollars in profits
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 4: and paid nothing in taxes, my Republican brothers are as
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 4: mad as my Democratic brothers. Because they know that's not fair.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 4: You know, one of them said to me not long ago, hey,
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: wait a minute. He said, somebody's got to pay to
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: keep the roads and bridges paved. Somebody's got to pay
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 4: to keep school.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: Up.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 4: Somebody's got to pay for our defense. And middle-class families,
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 4: working families, working poor, they're out there paying their fair
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 4: share of taxes. And the rich people are just walking
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 4: away from it and saying they're not going to pay
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 4: their part. That's a point that where we start together.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 4: The influence of money, the fact that the lobbying, lobbying, lobbying.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 4: You know, people talk about, oh, gridlock in Washington. There's
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 4: no gridlock in Washington.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: Nah.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 4: When the Republicans wanted to pass a tax giveaway of
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 4: a trillion and a half dollars, bingo. They got it
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 4: done in like five weeks. The rest of the time,
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 4: when they don't pass climate change legislation, when they don't
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 4: pass gun safety legislation, when they're not passing those laws.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 4: The reason it's not gridlocked, the reason is because that
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 4: helps the lobbyists who have the most influence. It helps
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 4: the industry. We have changes in the laws governing the
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 4: drug companies. That helps the drug companies. This isn't gridlocked.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 4: This is what they got for their lobbying dollars. So
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 4: I start there on corruption and say, I'll tell you what,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 4: Let's think of this as we all have to organize
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 4: for the election, but we have to stay organized after
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 4: the election. Nobody gets to go home after we win.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: You get 24 hours to celebrate and rest up, and
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: you've got to be right back in the pushing business.
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 4: Because you push from the outside, I'll lead from the
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 4: White House, and we will hold Congress accountable. And that's
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 4: how we'll make change. So when we start with something
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 4: that is very popular, like the anti-corruption bill, then we
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 4: got something where we can get some, not all the Republicans,
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 4: but we can get some Republicans with us and some
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 4: independents with us and some, a lot of Democrats with us.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 4: We make that change. We knock back the influence of money.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 4: And now think how it all looks different. because now
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 4: we can start to make other change. You know where
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 4: I go next? Right off the top. How about then
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 4: we pass a two-cent wealth tax and cancel that student
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 4: loan debt? Again, very popular, that wealth tax among Democrats
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 4: and Republicans. How about we vote to expand Social Security
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 4: and disability payments? I've got a way to do that.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 4: Raising taxes on only the top 2%. very popular among
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 4: Democrats and Republicans, get some wins under our belt. And
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 4: a president should be doing the things, I love saying this,
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 4: that she can do all by herself, like reduce the
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 4: cost of prescription drugs. I'm going to do this on
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 4: the first day. The power has been there in the
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 4: hands of the president for a long time, but it
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 4: just hasn't been picked up and used. So I'm going
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 4: to reduce the cost of insulin, the cost... of EpiPens,
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 4: the cost of HIV AIDS drugs, that will save families
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 4: hundreds of millions of dollars just right off the top.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 4: In other words, put government on the side of the people.
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 4: Let's get some real wins. I've got practical ideas for
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 4: how to make this happen, but ultimately ideas that rely
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 4: on the fact that together in a democracy we can
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 4: build this movement, we can make change, and it It
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 4: all comes down to us. That's what 2020 is about.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: Senator, my last question is just more of a comment.
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: I don't wash my face either. So I am completely
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: with you on that one.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 4: And that's why you have that glowing skin.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: As do you.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: I stand in a hot shower every morning.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: Of course, of course. But we don't need to go
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: into a whole routine every night. That just seems like
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: a lot.
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 4: It just does.
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 3: It does.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 4: You know, we'll just take care of ourselves.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: Perfect.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 4: I like it. I like it. Speaking of beauty, I
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 4: was combing Bailey when you called.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: Well, that was going to be my next thing. I
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: was going to say, give Bailey a hug for me.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 4: I will. He is such a good boy. He's a
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: good boy. He's right here next to me.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Leo's right here with me, too. So he likes
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: to sit in for all the interviews. Senator, thank you
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: so much. I really appreciate it. Thank you. And good
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: luck out on the trail.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 4: Thank you very much. You take care.
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: Thanks to Elizabeth Warren for joining us today. And we'll
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: see you next week. If there is still a Democratic debate,
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: there's a question of whether there will be one if
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: there is suddenly an impeachment trial. But if there is one,
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: we will be doing our... Pod Save America coverage on
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: Wednesday morning. All four of us will be doing it then.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: And then John and Tommy and I will be doing
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: our pod on Monday. So we'll talk to you then.
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: Here's my message to the DNC, that even if there
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: is a debate, they should just have a one-on-one debate
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: between Biden and Buttigieg. I mean, why not, right?
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: That'd be something.
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: They're not in the Senate, so let's do it. And
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: if Andrew Yang makes it, he should come too, or
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: Tom Steyer.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: Whoever else. Perfect. All right. We'll pass that message along
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: to Tom Perez. Oh, you know what? Fuck.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: We should have called him. Why am I calling on him?
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: We should have called him. God damn it. All right.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: Bye, everyone.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: Bye, everyone. Pod Save America is a product of Crooked Media.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: The senior producer is Michael Martinez. Our assistant producer is
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: Jordan Waller. It's mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: Seglin is our sound engineer. Thanks to Carolyn Reston, Tanya Sominator,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: and Katie Long for production support. And to our digital team,
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: Elijah Cohn, Narmel Coney, and Yael Freed, and Milo Kim,
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: who film and upload these episodes as a video every week.