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Jan 14 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the Linde Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report for the January 2026. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He's at TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com.
• 0:17
  I'll bring you up to speed on the latest agricultural news for the afternoon, and then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Drew Lerner. He's at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City on this Wednesday edition of closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. We'll not only find the closing market report, the commodity week, the opening market report, and so many more, as well as information from the agricultural economist, the crop scientist, and the animal scientist right here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois.
• 0:58
  Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. March corn for the day settled at $4.22. It's up 2 and a quarter. The May futures at $4.29 and 3 quarters, 2¢ higher. And December corn, also 2¢ higher at $4.47 and 3 quarters of a cent on its settlement price.
• 1:18
  The March soybeans at $10.42 and a half, up three and three quarters. November, ten fifty eight. That's the new crop, down a quarter of a cent. Bean meal futures, 30¢ higher. The bean oil, down 22¢.
• 1:30
  Wheat futures for the soft red, too higher. It finished at $5.12 and a half in the March. The hard red March at $5.22 at a quarter, up two and three quarters of a cent. Live cattle futures, a dollar 65 lower for a 100 pounds. Feeder cattle, down $2.42 and a half, and lean hogs, up a dollar and 45¢.
• 1:49
  Crude oil, around 76¢ a barrel higher, and the wholesale price of gasoline just about unchanged at a dollar 85 and 6 tenths of a cent per gallon today. Greg Johnson from TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Greg. Thanks for being with us today.
• 2:09
  Tell me about this week so far, particularly the drop in the corn market. What caused it, and what are your expectations going forward?
• 2:20
  Greg Johnson: Well, I think most traders, myself included, most farmers were expecting the USDA to lower the corn yield by a couple of bushels. There were even some, estimates out there that they could lower as much as four or five bushels to the acre. So that was kind of the lean going into the report. And, not only did the USDA not lower, the yield by a couple of bushels, they actually raised it by a half a bushel. And to add insult to injury, they added 1,300,000 acres, onto the harvested acreage number.
• 2:52
  And, you know, obviously the farmers are asking us how did they come up with more acres because they had to certify their acres by July 15. So the government, in their lines should have had these numbers well in advance of the January report. And the rationale, I guess, is that out west where they had plenty of rain, less corn was chopped for silage and more corn was harvested for corn. So we can agree or disagree with that, but that seems to be the explanation. And the one thing I know about government reports, you can agree with them or disagree, but they're not gonna change those numbers.
• 3:28
  So these these are the numbers that we've got to work with for the next six or seven months.
• 3:32
  Todd Gleason: That is right. And we probably will have them for at least that long. And before we turn our attention to the new crop, prospective plantings is the first time we'll really have an opportunity to find something different. That's not until the March in the mean space. I would think that the rest of January, February, and March might be a place where producers will really be in need at some point of making some sales to, put money in the bank in order to, make sure that they can put a crop in the ground for the 2026 growing season.
• 4:10
  What are you telling them when they call?
• 4:13
  Greg Johnson: We're telling them they have to be realistic. We have to lower our targets. If the report would have been friendly, the news, the good takeaway is that farmers were willing to sell on a rally. They had offers in. So they weren't being unrealistic.
• 4:31
  I mean, we didn't have $5 corn offers in. They were looking for $4.5 and we were within 7¢ of those kind of numbers, a friendly report, and we could have bought a lot of corn. Farmers could have got a lot of corn sold. Obviously that didn't happen. So now we dropped 30¢ since that report came out.
• 4:50
  We probably won't get back that whole point three zero dollars but you just have to be realistic and lower your offers. You combine the good yields that we had with not as good a price, then there's some government money coming, and and you just take you gotta add all that together and and hope that's enough to pay the bills.
• 5:08
  Todd Gleason: And what do you tell them about soybeans at this point?
• 5:11
  Greg Johnson: Well, the good news is that farmers did a very good job of selling the old crop soybeans. We had $11 for old crop beans there in October, November. Farmers did take advantage of that, and now we've lost a dollar. We're down around 10.4 on the March futures. Again, we can probably get a small bounce at some point in time.
• 5:32
  We won't gain the whole dollar back, but if we could gain $0.30 back, we just have to be realistic and try to get the rest of the old crop being sold on any kind of a small rally. As far as new crop is concerned, I really think we're gonna see a lot more bean acres out of The United States. We know we're seeing more acres out of South America. They're not having any weather issues at this point, so it's hard to bet on that. But, you know, that's what it would take to probably see much more than a 25 to 30¢ rally.
• 6:00
  So I think just be realistic. Lower your expectations. You know, $11 beans was a good place to get some sold, and I'm glad we did. But, now we have to, be realistic and maybe sell the next bunch at $10.75.
• 6:13
  Todd Gleason: How about for new crop for both crops?
• 6:15
  Greg Johnson: Well, we we've got time. I I still look at the fact that we're extremely dry. There's very little subsoil moisture, and I know that that won't influence the market anytime soon. We've had two relatively dry years, the past two years, and we've still managed to have some very decent corn yields. So I don't think we can convince traders that, oh my gosh, the subsoil moisture's not there, to get them to run the market up ahead of time.
• 6:40
  We're probably gonna have to prove it to them, and so that may take until July. So I guess we probably will have to be patient on new crop corn sales because we probably won't see a big rally unless either A, that March 31 acreage report shows a lot less corn acres or B, we really do have some problems with the growing season. And both of those are several, several months away. So I think we just have to be patient on corn. We probably won't get a whole lot of new crop corn sold.
• 7:08
  New crop beans, you know, it would be nice if we could get a weather problem somewhere, but, that's probably not gonna be realistic. So we may just wanna sell by the calendar. That April, May, June timeframe typically is a pretty good time to get some beans sold. And so even though you may not like the price, we may wanna get 20%, 25 sold, hoping that that's our lowest sale. We still have 75% left to sell if we sell 25% during that timeframe.
• 7:34
  So we just may go to marketing by the calendar at that point and hope that you combine the government money with 10/25/1050 sales, and you hope that that's enough to pay the bills, and and we just obviously gotta hope for a big crop as well.
• 7:50
  Todd Gleason: Typically, farmers in the Iowa States, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, do not change their rotations very much from one year to the next. I'm wondering when you're talking to producers in our part of the world, whether they have considered different options or changing just the ratio for the coming year or not.
• 8:11
  Greg Johnson: I don't think so. Not in our area. We may see some cutback on inputs when it comes to corn for example, but I don't think people will shy away from planting corn. They're still gonna plant corn. I mean, and like you said, we're 51% corn, 49% beans.
• 8:25
  It's been that way forever, it seems like. The price would really have to get out of whack, that price relationship, in order to see a shift. Where we could see the shift though is in the Dakotas, the Nebraskas, the Missouries, the Kentucky's, the peripheral states. That's where we saw the big increase in corn. And so we could see those acres go back to beans this year.
• 8:46
  We had about a four and a half to 5,000,000 acre increase in those peripheral states, not in the I states, as you said, but in those peripheral states. So we could very well see those acres possibly go back into beans this year.
• 8:59
  Todd Gleason: So you at eighty five and ninety five for million acres that is for soybeans and corn when we get to this prospective planting season?
• 9:08
  Greg Johnson: Yeah. Yeah. That that 98.8, 99, I mean, I think we can lose 4,000,000 acres of corn and get it down to 95. But the bad news is what those be those acres have to go somewhere, and then we just don't have a really profitable third crop. You know, even wheat is followed by double crop beans.
• 9:25
  So, really, it's corn or beans, and so 4,000,000 less acres of corn means 4,000,000 more acres of beans, unfortunately.
• 9:31
  Todd Gleason: Okay. Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again next week.
• 9:33
  Greg Johnson: Alrighty. Thanks, Todd.
• 9:34
  Todd Gleason: Mhmm. Greg Johnson is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. In today's agricultural news, we'll start with the AFBF or the American Farm Bureau Federation's annual convention. We're speaking to farm broadcasters in Anaheim, California, Minnesota congresswoman Angie Craig, the ranking member on the House Ag Committee, said we could see a new farm bill by the November elections.
• 10:04
  Angie Craig: Senator Bozeman has said, he'd like to make sure that there are no poison pills in the bill, and that's a complicated subject in the house because there are a number of different elements of that bill that could cause, you know, most democrats to vote against it. There are some things that they put in could cause a number of Republicans to vote against it. And, you know, there are some controversial things like prop 12 that now when you've got the MAHA movement, it's a complicated situation to find a way to move forward here. What would be the easiest to get across the finish line is is really take, a bare bones approach. Let's make sure we get farm credit done, rural development.
• 10:44
  Let's not try to put other big policy issues that could be controversial into the bill.
• 10:51
  Todd Gleason: Craig also predicted that year round e 15 will save money.
• 10:55
  Angie Craig: Which makes that the most ridiculous thing in the world that we haven't already done this. As we well know, it's more of a regional issue than a partisan issue. But I think we're probably back to decent ground here with some conversations that have occurred recently. So I'm optimistic. And I've been optimistic before, though.
• 11:15
  And my optimism has been crushed. So, one of these appropriations bills, I think, is the best way for year round e 15 to ride. And, you know, if I'm the Trump administration, which I would never be, I would say to myself, tariffs have caused a lot of problems. China's not coming back like we thought it would. Boy, I need to double down on export markets, on renewable fuels.
• 11:42
  Todd Gleason: Again, that was Angie Craig, congresswoman from the state of Minnesota. Now let's move on to a proposal from the Federal Communications Commission regarding drones that could have an adverse effect on farming. Doug Rebout, president of the Wisconsin Soybean Growers Association, says there are concerns about who's manufacturing the drones.
• 12:05
  Doug Rebout: Right now, they're concerned and understandably so about national security and where the majority of drones that are being used here in The US are coming from China. They're concerned about security. And, know, you like I said, I understand that. But also as a farmer, this is a major tool that's really become important on farms lately. We are trying to be as proactive as we can with our seeds and our fertilizer, our chemicals, and everything.
• 12:41
  Drones is a tool. It would hurt us to have to give those up because there are no or very few drones being, made here in The US.
• 12:49
  Todd Gleason: And Rebout says there aren't enough domestic companies making drones yet to meet the growing demand.
• 12:53
  Doug Rebout: There are a few more factories in The United States that are starting to make them, but those are just ramping up and getting going. And, you just like anything with technology, we're using the stuff now. We don't have the time to wait for the American made ones, and we're hoping that the ones made here in The US will have the same technology that other ones do to be able to use them.
• 13:20
  Todd Gleason: Doug Rebout is with the Wisconsin Soybean Association, and that's a quick look at today's agricultural news here on Illinois Public Media's closing market report. You can find and listen to this program anytime you'd like up on our website. It's easy enough. Just click and play at willag.org or search the closing market report out by name in your favorite podcast applications, places like Apple and Spotify, YouTube, and so many more. You can check those out too at our website.
• 13:52
  Hit podcast and then the closing market report and subscribe. You'll find all kinds of places that the closing market report is available for you to download and listen to on demand. Let's check the weather forecast in the growing regions across the planet. Drew Lerner is now here from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Hi, Drew.
• 14:25
  Thank you very much. I saw something on my phone today that I don't think I've ever seen from, the National Weather Service. They sent out an emergency alert for a winter squall and told folks that they needed to slow down because there might be a lot of snow momentarily. Yeah. Not a lot of snow that piles up, but slow that that and I think it was just an interesting little fact.
• 14:49
  I don't know. Is that something you've seen pop up before in your part of the world or as you watch weather other places?
• 14:55
  Drew Lerner: Well, you know, some of this precipitation that occurred today was in a pretty narrow concentrated band. And if you're flying across the highway at 70 miles an hour or whatever, you know, and you run into one of those periods of significant snows, your visibility will drop to zero in a flash. And that can be pretty dangerous if you're on the highway. I have personally experienced that before, and it is it's very scary. I mean, you you hit the brakes as soon as you get into it, you have no idea who's in front of you.
• 15:28
  So that's probably something to keep in mind. That squall line is moving through Indiana right now from, we'll call it West Central into Northeast parts of the state. So that's probably where the greatest risk is at the moment. There's still some snow falling across parts of Illinois, but it does not look like it's as heavy as, what came initially.
• 15:52
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. It sounds a bit like that now here at least in the state of Illinois and I suppose other places too, they'll initiate a dust storm warning, which is kind of the same thing. We'll see how things run, going forward. Since we're in The United States, looks like we're gonna turn cold. Can you tell me about the Arctic air that's going to be dropping in on us?
• 16:14
  Drew Lerner: Yeah. We have kind of a combination of things coming together right now. A couple of weeks ago, the the, some of the polar vortex forecast models out there were suggesting that we were going to see the polar vortex become elongated so that it extended from, we'll call it, Northeastern Canada back into the North Central United States, and it would occur starting this weekend and go out about five days. And that's, indeed why we're seeing this initial surge of cold. There's also a reinforcing shot of cold that's advertised to come out of the Arctic as we get into next week.
• 16:51
  And behind that is a potential for some bitter cold that is currently in Russia that may come over the pole and reinforce the pole that's going to be in Kansas. As we move forward through the balance of January and perhaps even into early February, we may see a little bit more consistency in winter like weather across the middle of North America. So I think we've been a bit spoiled with all the warmth around here in the last few weeks, and I think it's time to pay the piper. But, hopefully, we can avoid big time snow events. I think most of those are gonna end up being the Middle And North Atlantic coastal region as we go forward through this period.
• 17:33
  Todd Gleason: Let's go hunting now for issues in the global growing regions. Of course, winter wheat would be about the only thing we'd have to worry about here. Are there places that we do need to watch?
• 17:44
  Drew Lerner: Well, I think there's still a lot of folks watching and hoping that something weird will happen in South America that would move our markets in a big way. Unfortunately, I'm not the guy to talk to because it looks pretty darn good in Brazil right now. You know, Brazil has kind of a rough go early in their growing season, season and some of that early planted soybean crop really did have a tough time developing and some of the yield in that crop is a little bit low. But as we go forward and we harvest more of the crop, the late soybean crop has been treated royally. It's going to yield very well.
• 18:23
  And I think what estimates we have out there on production that we may see that turned around a little bit over the next couple of weeks when people realize that they've really had perfect weather for the bulk of the crop. In the meantime, Argentina, we still have that dry bias going on in the South and parts of Buenos Aires and La Pampa in particular. It's a little dry in Southern Cordova too, but they're going to get some rain coming up here over the next ten days, about three different waves of it. So they're going to be in okay shape. I think maybe far Southern Argentina, in particular, Buenos Aires will probably come up with some lower yields.
• 19:02
  But when you step back and look at the really good conditions that are present in the rest of South America, it's gonna be really hard to make that into something that folks can trade on.
• 19:11
  Todd Gleason: Anything in South Africa or Australia?
• 19:14
  Drew Lerner: You know, in Australia, their summer crops, have been dealing with excessive heat recently. Last week, some of their agricultural regions were reporting temperatures of 100 to 118 degrees. It was brutal. It's probably a bigger issue for livestock than anything else. A lot of the sorghum and corn production areas were not subjected to quite that much heat.
• 19:39
  We did see some temperatures over 100, though. The dry land crop in Eastern Australia definitely needs a drink of water. In South Africa, conditions are good in the East, but in the West, they're a little dry. They do need to see some better precipitation in the West. But, at the moment, just like in these other places, it's just not a big enough problem to to throw, you know, throw production into a big tizzy.
• 20:04
  Todd Gleason: Anything that you find in North Africa, The Middle East, Europe, into Ukraine, Russia that might be of concern?
• 20:11
  Drew Lerner: Yeah. Unfortunately, I don't like this any more than what I told you already. You know, Morocco is a a major durum wheat producer and has some barley and a few other crops. And the last five years, they've been dealing with a terrible drought. I think their water supply literally dried up, and they couldn't plant any of the winter grains in the Southwest part of the country for the last two years, maybe three.
• 20:39
  But it's been raining really good this year. And, so they're coming out of that multiyear drought, and they're going to have a much better production year. The rest of North Africa is kind of seeing more or less normal ish weather, could use a little bit more moisture in Tunisia. The Middle East, they had a terrible drought as we came into the autumn season last year. Iran, in particular, had some real serious water shortages where they were having to restrict drinking water, I think, to some degree.
• 21:08
  But over the past few weeks, we've started seeing some waves of moisture moving through that part of the world, even places as far to the West as Southeastern Turkey and Syria, as well as Iraq, all of those countries have been dealing with dryness, up until the last few weeks. And now we're seeing a more normal weather pattern. In, the Former Soviet Union, we have a lot of snow on the ground. It's very cold over there right now. They're seeing some, positive and negative single digit lows at night, but there's plenty of snow on the ground.
• 21:42
  So that's not much of an issue for them. I will tell you this, though. Underneath that snow is a saturated soil in many areas, especially from Western Ukraine into the heart of Western Russia. And, this just over the past week or so, they picked up on, I think, upwards to 20 inches of snow on top of that saturated soil. So if they come into spring and they've got a wet weather pattern playing out, they're gonna have a mess on their hands with the melting snow and, the wet ground already underneath that.
• 22:14
  So that might be fun to watch. But Europe's in fairly good shape. France has had a big recovery from their drought, and they still need much more moisture to fix the water supply, but their crops are gonna get a good start in the spring. And I don't see much of an issue in China right now. They're gonna get some needed moisture next week.
• 22:30
  Todd Gleason: I think that covers every place unless you wanna talk about the Arctic areas. So I think we're good.
• 22:36
  Drew Lerner: Well, we don't have to talk about the we don't have to talk about the Arctic because the Arctic is gonna be right down here in our backyard here over the next ten days.
• 22:43
  Todd Gleason: Oh, I'd forgotten. It's spilling over to us. Thank you much, Drew. I appreciate it. Drew Lerner
• 22:49
  Greg Johnson: You bet.
• 22:49
  Todd Gleason: Is with World Weather Incorporated. He is in Kansas City and joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. I'm University of Illinois Extensions, Todd Gleason.