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College Football Week 2 BEST BETS | Big Dogs · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: your hands now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this man but don't you go quiet don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure put the glass down baby.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Look at me.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Now hold on Hold on, not tonight, not now. Hold on,
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: hold on, let me pull you out. That fellow fights hard,
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: but he don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports,
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: college football, week two. We're already off to an awesome start, obviously,
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: with the loss tonight on that huge underdog. So why
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: not have even more giant underdogs here on the card?
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Why not? We're just going to lose anyway. I mean,
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: we're already one and four to start the season, haven't
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: won since week zero. Everything's going real well with college
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: fucking football. It's really going fucking well. Week two is
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: usually awesome. It's usually overreaction time, overreaction week, and I'm
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: looking at this board and I'm like, I don't like it.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: I don't like it. And usually I do. I don't
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: know what else to tell you, man. Like, these big
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: dogs might just all get killed because they're all completely mismatched,
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: but it's all about the situation, so whatever. Let's do this.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: I'm going to try to I don't know if I
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: can make this faster, uh, to go through it, but
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: if I skip some game that you really want me
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: to talk about, you can let me know if people
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: are in the chat and I'll, I'll do it. Um,
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: I'm going to talk about all the ranked matchups, the
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: TV matchups, which will cover most of the FBS games.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: I don't think I'm going to hit every single one
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: cause that's just way too many, but let's do it. Uh,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm going to skip some of the TV
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: ones that are just FBS, FCS that are just junk
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: as well. Like whatever, uh, ESPN at noon does have
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: number six Oregon in kind of a weird travel spot
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: going to Oklahoma State here. Oregon coming off a pretty
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: big game against Boise State. So my instinct here is
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: going to be to lean Oklahoma State here. It's got
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: Oregon State kind of an odd travel spot here coming
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: off a big win over Boise State. But my hesitation
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: would be Oregon did not do as well as they
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: were supposed to in that game. Like there were 20
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: something point favorite in that game. They almost, they didn't
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: almost lose, but it was close. Um, so it was, well,
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess they did, you know, they did
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: almost lose. What am I talking about? Uh, it was
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: tied to the fourth quarter. I felt like they were
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: not really in danger of it, but that's my problem
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: with it. Like when you have a big favorite that
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: has a close call like that, a So that would
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: be my worry with fading Oregon. Even though it's a
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: weird travel spot, they are coming off kind of a
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: big win there. And Oklahoma State is coming off an
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: ugly loss to Tulsa. Tulsa pulling off the upset against them.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: If you dig into this box score, Oklahoma State did
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: outgain them. It wasn't by much. It was only by
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: seven yards. But they also were minus three in turnovers.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma State did dominate the first down battle here. Won
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: the possession battle, whatever. So Oklahoma State... statistically they should
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: have at least won this game. But, you know, it
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: was their first game with a new coach, although he
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: brought in his quarterback from North Texas, Mestemaker, with Morris,
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: the new coach there. But, yeah, I think there were
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: some growing pains here. So I do think Oklahoma State
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: is going to start playing better, at least than this.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: But Tulsa always gets up for Oklahoma State, you know,
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: even though that was technically revenge for Oklahoma State. A
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: lot of the guys were not the same who– We're
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: on that team that lost to Tulsa last year. Still,
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: I think Oklahoma State is probably the way. I keep
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: saying Oregon State because they're both O states with the
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: same colors. But, yeah, I would lean Oklahoma State here.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Oregon's massively public, 91% of the tickets, 90% of the
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: cash on them. They're a 23.5-point favorite. So, yeah, that's
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: the way I would lean there in that one. The
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: total's kind of in the mid-range in the 50s, but
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: no play for me on that one. Arizona State is
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: at number 10, Texas A & M. Very difficult to
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: go play in College Station, although generally what I will
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: say is that the home teams usually have more of
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: a home advantage in the night games, especially if it's
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: a TV game that's actually a big game and they
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: get pumped up for it. But Texas A & M
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: is still a difficult place to play. They're number 10
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: in the country, but we don't know really what they're
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: going to look like yet exactly, although they do have
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: their quarterback back from last year. They do have some
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: of their returning players. They still have the same coach, Elko,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: so I guess we do kind of know, but There's
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: nothing to really take away from them crushing Missouri State
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: 50-0 in the first game. It's whatever. But Arizona State,
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: we don't really know what they're going to look like
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: either because they're kind of a new team right now.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: They lost Leavitt to the transfer portal. He's on LSU now.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: Arizona State had an easy destruction of a cupcake in
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: their first game. I got nothing on this game. Texas
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: A & M is only a 14-and-a-half-point favorite, which... Kind
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: of looks a little bit easy to play Texas A
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: & M, even though it's on the wrong side of
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: that two touchdown key number there. The public is on
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: that side because they're the ranked team, obviously. 62% of
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: the tickets are on A & M. 70% of the
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: cash on Arizona State, though. Arizona State getting the money. Again,
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: I have pretty much nothing on this, although I would
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: kind of worry about Arizona State because we know more
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: about A & M at least, and we know that
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: they're a solid team. They're also the more physical team
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: in the SEC here, which is probably not a good
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: thing for a Big 12 team like Arizona State, who
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: I consider to be a little bit more of a
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: finesse team. So generally, wouldn't really want much to do
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: with Arizona State there, but it is.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: It's just there's no real situation to latch onto here,
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: although A & M does have their SEC games starting
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: next week, but it's with Kentucky as the first one.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's really that big of a deal.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: All right, we do have a noon play, and this
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: is the only one that's not a huge underdog. Number 11,
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma at Michigan on Fox. You already know what I'm
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: going to do with this. We're going to take Michigan
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: in this one. I think you could have found maybe
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: a 6 or 6.5 at some point. I thought it
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: might go up a little bit more, but there are 5s, 5.5s
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: out there. It's kind of a no-man's land. It doesn't
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: really matter the difference between 5, 5.5, but we're going
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: to take Michigan here. There are a lot of things
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: that go into this. It was a situational lean that
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: I was going to have right away because we all
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: know what Michigan did in their last game. They should
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: have lost to Western Michigan. It was a terrible performance
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: from Michigan. at home but Western Michigan they get up
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: for that game at the very least because they're a
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: little brother in the state of Michigan Michigan I think
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: overlooked them if you dig into the box score I
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: believe Michigan didn't really play that well but I'm still
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: not really that concerned by that they did out gain
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: Western Michigan and they did have three turnovers which really
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: kind of did them in in the game Western Michigan
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: completely outpossessed them but I mean that's kind of Western
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: Michigan style like more possession they run the football Slow
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: the game down, play defense, whatever. Yeah, Oklahoma's a different animal, obviously,
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: but Michigan looks so bad in that first game. They
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: should have lost as a huge favorite, and you know
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: I like to take teams that either lose or almost
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: lose as a big favorite. I like to play on
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: that team in the next game, and that is what
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: I'm going to do here. as they're also going from
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: a huge favorite to an underdog role here, and they're
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: staying at home in the big house, and nobody's going
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: to want them here. Michigan was also ranked 16th in
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: the country to start the season, and then they won
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: the game, and now they're out of the rankings completely.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: I don't think I've ever seen anything like that before.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: You might see a team that's 24th, 25th, maybe drop
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: out of the rankings, even if they win. But I
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: don't think you ever see a 16th-ranked team win and
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: still completely fall out of the top 25. I mean,
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: it's just ridiculous. This is an overreaction, man. There was
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: a look-ahead line on this game, and this is why
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: I like Week 2, man, because people overreact, and the
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: market overreacts to the first game. Now, yes, you have
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: to adjust a little bit. Maybe Michigan's not as good
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: as we thought they were going to be, but they
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: have a new coach, Kyle Whittingham, and he was really
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: successful with Utah, so... I think that they're going to
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: get going. As the season progresses, I think you're going
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: to see them improve. But yeah, they're probably not as
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: good as maybe you thought they were coming into the season.
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma might be a little bit better, but I was
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: high on Oklahoma coming into the season because they had
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: all these returning starters, including their quarterback, Mateer. Both of
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: these teams returned their quarterback, though. But yeah, I thought
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma had a.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: Like an outside shot and maybe taking a shot at
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: the SEC. You know what I mean? I still think that,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: but this is just not a good spot for Oklahoma here.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: In my opinion, or it's a good spot to play
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: Michigan at least. but what I was going to say
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: is this line is completely overreacted there was a look
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: ahead line on this before last week's games happened Michigan
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: was a two and a half point favorite in this
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: game And there were no real injuries. No significant injuries here.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: And all of a sudden, Michigan goes... Because of one game,
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: Michigan goes from a 2.5-boy favorite to a 5.5-boy dog.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: The line moves eight points just because of what Michigan
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: did in their last game. And yes, they should have lost.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: It was a bullshit call. If you didn't see it, Michigan...
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: threw a pass out of the back of the end
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: zone that looked like it was supposed to be the
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: last play of the game, and the refs reviewed it,
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: even though you usually only review a scoring play, and
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: it wasn't one, and they said that there was actually
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: one second left on the clock. They gave Michigan the ball,
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: and then somehow Michigan threw a Hail Mary again and
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: actually scored a touchdown on it. Whatever. Either way you
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: look at it, Everybody's talking about how bad Michigan was
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: in that game, how they shouldn't have won. They got lucky,
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: and you know that's just going to motivate them. So
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: I like that. And the public's just going to be
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: all over Oklahoma because they're ranked, and they crushed UTEP
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: in their first game. What does that tell us about Oklahoma? Nothing, really.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, UTEP's not a good team, so whatever. And
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: in fact, Western Michigan, I think they are better than UTEP. So, yeah,
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: I mean... Do what you want with all that information.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: But yeah, Oklahoma basically facing nobody. Michigan, you know, they
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: were at least a little bit more tested by facing
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: Western Michigan. So that's it. I mean, this is really just,
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: it's a market play. It's an overreaction play. I've been
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: eyeing it all week and I believe the market agrees
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: with this as well. And yeah, it looks like the
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: line is five and a half. It's at four, four
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: and a half at some books here. Let me see.
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: Stupid FAQ tab keeps coming up, man. I can't get
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: rid of it. 85% of tickets, 77% of the cash
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: on Oklahoma. So, yeah, Oklahoma's a very public side with
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: less of the money coming in on them. This line
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: is dropping, though. It's a little bit all over the
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: place in different books. It's 4, 4.5. I think there's
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: still value at that number, but the 5s, 5.5s are
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: still out there. And it might go back up a
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: little bit at this point because Oklahoma's going to be
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: a public side. And we're also looking at a low total.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: 43 and a half is the total here and the
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: money's coming in on the under so you know i
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: like that too taking underdogs the low total so yeah
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: michigan probably my favorite play out of all of these
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: i mean not probably it is so yes i like
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: michigan in that one i would not be shocked if
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: they won the game outright uh all right because they
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: should they were going to be favored before it happened
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: last week so i'm not gonna say they should be
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: favored i mean you got to adjust a little bit
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: but Maybe Oklahoma should be about a one, two-point favorite here,
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: not five and a half. All right, Penn State, number
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: 16 at Temple, ESPN 2. Penn State looked good. They
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: crushed Marshall in their first game. They shut them out 45-0.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: Now they've got to go on the road to face
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: a little brother, though, in the state of Pennsylvania. Temple
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: usually is going to get up for a game like
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: this against Penn State. Temple, easy win over Rhode Island,
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: not much to really see there. I just lean to
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: Temple just because it is big brother, little brother situation.
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: Penn State doesn't have a big game up next. They're
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: playing Buffalo, but still, I just think little brother, big brother.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: Penn State maybe looked a little bit too good against Marshall,
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: but yeah, Penn State, they're off and running with the
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: Matt Campbell era. They're basically Iowa State from last year.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: How good is that going to be once they start
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: conference play? I don't know. But Penn State has a
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: really easy schedule this year, so they have a decent
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: shot to make the playoff after last year was so
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: bad and James Franklin got canned because of it. But whatever.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: In this game, I would lean towards the little brother
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: being a little bit extra motivated here. Temple, they're getting 23.5, 24.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: 24 would be a key number here, so I would
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: rather take 24, obviously, than 23.5. I think you can
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: find it at some books. Penn State's really public. I mean,
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: the public, they just go based on what they saw last, man. Oh, shit.
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: Penn State just dominated somebody. Let's play them. 94% of
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: the tickets, 94% of the cash on Penn State. They're
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: a very public side, and it's a pretty low total,
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: around 50, 50 and a half, so those are my
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: thoughts on that. Not a strong opinion. Also at noon
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: on TNT, Washington State is at Kansas State. Kind of
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: a weird spot for Washington State. Have to go to
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: an unfamiliar venue here to go to Kansas State, so
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: that might give Kansas State a little bit extra home
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: advantage here. Washington State's also coming up their rivalry against Washington,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: and they're having to play a second straight road game here.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: And Washington State was within seven points towards the end
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: of that game, man. They lost by 14, but it
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: was a fairly close game, and it was a seven-point
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: game in the fourth quarter. So Washington State might be
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: a little bit hung over after that and having to
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: make this weird travel out to Kansas State. I'm going
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: to lean to Kansas State. minus the points here, Kansas state.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: We don't know what they are yet really with this.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: They do have Avery Johnson, their quarterback back at least though,
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: but they just demolished Nichols, Nichols state, whatever, who cares? Uh,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: but this is going to be their official like FBS
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: home opener here as well. So maybe the crowd will
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: get a little bit crazier for it. I do think
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: Kansas state underperformed a little bit last year as well.
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: So I would lay the points with Kansas state here
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: and it is, it's a beefy number. It's 17 and
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: a half, but it's above that, um, key number, 17.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: It hasn't moved. 50-50 on the tickets, 61% of the
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: cash on Kansas State, so the money seems to agree
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: with this. The total's low, though, so that would worry me,
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: laying a lot of points with a low total, 48.5, 49.
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: Money pretty strong in the under there, so that does
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: worry me a little bit about laying those points, but
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: that's the way I would lean. It's not a strong
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: opinion for me, but I would lay it with Kansas
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: State in that one if I was going to do
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: anything with it. I'm just going to touch it really
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: quickly at the ACC network game at noon, East Tennessee
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: at North Carolina. Cause I think Garrett North Carolina man
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: mentioned it this morning and yeah, I would agree with
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: taking the points with East Tennessee in this one. I'm
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: not going to do it. This is East Tennessee is
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: an FCS team by the way, although I do have
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: one FCS, one more FCS play cause it worked out
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: so well today. Uh, but North Carolina, they upset TCU
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: in the first game in Dublin. Um, Oh, what the
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: hell is this? UNC will not host recruits after a violation. Oh,
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: that was the Belichick son thing, I think. I don't
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: know what was going on. Steve Belichick or whatever, Belichick's son.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: I forget, what was he, gambling? I don't even remember
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: what it was. There was some violation. I don't know
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: what the hell it was. Anyway. North Carolina had that
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: big win over TCU. It was an upset win in
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: Dublin in week zero and kind of a high-profile game.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I agree. It could be a letdown spot
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: for North Carolina coming off of that. Now, they're not
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: having to travel back from Dublin in a week. They
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: got last week off because they were in Dublin before that.
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: So the schedule makers were nice to them. They didn't
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: have to play. This is going to be their home opener, though,
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: although it's against an FCS team, and yeah, North Carolina
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: might look ahead because they do have Clemson next, and
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: that is a bigger game just in name. It's their
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: ACC opener as well, even though Clemson looked like an
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: absolute disaster in their first game. Dabo Sweeney, man, he's
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: going to have to start. He doesn't use the transfer portal,
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: and that's why Clemson has been absolute ass. He's going
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: to have to do it. I get why he doesn't
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: like it, but He's way behind just because he's not
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: using it, so whatever. But yeah, North Carolina, they did
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: have a week off here. It could be a look
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: ahead to Clemson, and they do play Notre Dame after that,
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: but they do have another bye week in between those
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: two games. I think college teams have two byes now.
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I think so. But anyway, what was
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: I going to say? Oh, yeah, North Carolina, the week off,
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: it's a bye week, and you know what I say
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: with the bye week. I think that the bye... helps
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: you if you went into the buy on a bad note.
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: It helps you fix things. But I think it's bad
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: if you went into it on a good note, which
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: they did, because you don't have anything to fix. So
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: UNC is coming off that nine-point upset or whatever against TCU.
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: They have nothing to fix during the break. Come back
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: home from Ireland. They're going to have ACC play next
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: against Clemson. So yeah, I would take East Tennessee in
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: this one if I was going to play it. I
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: don't really want to. East Tennessee is coming up beating Tusculum? Tusculum?
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: Who the fuck is that? That's not even a D1 school.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know. East Tennessee lost their one D1 game
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: to Campbell, so I don't know. I mean, East Tennessee,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: they're not a good team, but you're going to get
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: a ton of points if you do take this. North
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: Carolina's got 63% of the tickets, 79% of the cash
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: on East Tennessee. You're going to get 35.5 points if
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: you take East Tennessee there. Yes, I agree with it,
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: but that one is not making the cut for me.
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: Ann Dagger, what's up, man? Oh, thank you, sir. Not
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: in your pay grade? All right. Well, I don't think
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: it's in mine, though. Thanks for checking out the show, man.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's in, like, I don't know. What
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: is my pay grade? I don't know. I mean, I've
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: been doing this for two decades, though, so I like
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: to think I know what I'm doing, but I'm not
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: off to a good start in college football. Last year,
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: it went well last year in college. The year before,
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: that was not good in college football, so it's been
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: kind of up and down for me in college football.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: What else we got? We got Old Dominion and Virginia
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Tech on CW just because I'm hitting all these TV games.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: Trying to do it fast, but we'll see. This is
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: always a game that Old Dominion gets up for because
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: they're a small... they're the little brother in, one of
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: the little brothers in the state of Virginia, right? Virginia Tech,
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: they're off and running in the James Franklin era. Destroyed
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: VMI in the first game, but yeah, that's another little
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: brother in Virginia, but it's VMI. I mean, come on, man. Whatever.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: Speaking of VMI, I'm not going to touch it again,
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: I don't think, but I did mention that VMI is
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: playing against Bucknell, and I talked about how Bucknell, when
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: I talked about tonight's game, the Villanova game, Bucknell almost
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: upset Villanova. So Bucknell is coming off a big near
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: upset there. So they're laying 10.5 points in a very
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: low total game, 47.5 point total. against vmi so i
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: said i like vmi in that one if you're going
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: to play that game it's an fcs fcs game though
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: but the situation i think favors vmi now because they're
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: just coming off an embarrassing loss bucknell is coming up
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: almost pulling off a huge upset and i like taking
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: dogs uh when it's a low total too so vmi
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: plus the points would be a lean for me in
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: that game although i don't really do fcs football but
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: uh That one seems to make sense to me. Anyway,
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: Virginia Tech against Old Dominion. Virginia Tech, yeah, they crushed VMI,
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: but I don't know how much we should really take
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: away from that. Old Dominion beat Norfolk State, who is
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: a little brother to them in the state of Virginia.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: It was kind of a whatever win for them. It
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: wasn't that impressive. I believe Old Dominion did upset or
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: almost upset Virginia Tech last year. No, they did upset them.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: They beat them by almost 20 points. So maybe there's
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: a little bit of revenge here for Virginia Tech, but
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know because Virginia Tech's got kind of a
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: new roster here, new coach, so I don't know how
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: much they really care about the revenge aspect of this.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: I don't have a lot on this, but it is
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: a low total game, and you're getting a lot of
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: points with old Dominion here. Maybe Virginia Tech looked a
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: little too good in that first game. Virginia Tech is
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: a very public side, 85% of the tickets, although 88%
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: of the money on them. They're up from 17.5 to 19.5 here,
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: so it does look like some of the money has
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: actually driven that lineup, but they look also really public
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: to me. I don't think I would do it. I
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: think I would lean Old Dominion in that one, but
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: that is not a strong opinion for me at all.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: I think that's the weakest out of all the ones
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: that I've talked about so far. Wake Forest and Purdue...
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: This one was somewhat close to being a play for me.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: This is also noontime. Fox Sports won. Wake Forest. Really,
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: this is a huge look ahead for Wake Forest. I
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: think it is a bad spot for Wake here. They're
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: coming off kind of a whatever game against Akron. I
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: think they did not cover in that game beating Akron
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: in week one. I mean, whatever. It's a MAAC team.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: It was the home opener. Yeah, Wake won that game.
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: They got to go to Purdue. Kind of a weird
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: travel spot in Purdue. Not a good program in recent years,
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: so kind of easy to overlook them, but they might
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: do that because they have Miami next. Not only do
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: they have Miami next, and it'll be their ACC opener,
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: but they're hosting Miami, and Miami's the best team in
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: the ACC, and it's a Friday night game. It's a
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: big ESPN Friday night game, so it's a short week
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: they have to look ahead to. So this is a
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: mega look-ahead spot for Wake Forest here. So yeah, I
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: like Purdue in this one here. Purdue is coming up
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: with an easy win over Indiana State. An in-state little brother,
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: but not a particularly good one, I don't believe. This
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: will be Purdue's FBS home opener, at least. Yeah, I
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: like this one. Purdue is getting the money as well.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: They're like a three-point favorite. Now, it opened four and
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: a half, but if you're going to play this game,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: I would at least find a three on Purdue. You've
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: got to at least get that key number there and
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: not let this get to two and a half. I
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: don't think the public is really playing this game, so
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: I don't really think the public's going to hold this
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: game up at the number three, you know what I mean?
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: 58% of the tickets, 80% of the cash on Purdue.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: So to me, this looks like it's just a game
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: where it's pretty much just professionals playing this one. And
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: they're on Purdue for the most part. So that line,
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: that three might disappear. So if you do like that analysis,
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: you like Purdue... which I do. It's not on my card,
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: but I would take that soon, I would say. But yeah,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: Purdue would be my lean in that one. Also, a
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: lot of noontime games here, man. South Florida and Army
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: as they get American play going here. I think this
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: will be the conference opener for both teams. Army looked
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: really good in crushing Bryant, but it's Bryant. I mean, whatever. Army,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: they do have a pretty good offense. I think how
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: good their defense remains to be seen. But I think
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: Army might come into this game a little bit overvalued
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: because they looked really good against Bryant, and South Florida
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: looked really bad against FIU. Now, FIU, they're a little
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: brother in the state of Florida, so FIU gets up
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: for a game like that. South Florida only beat them 19-9,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: while Army hung 50-whatever on Bryant. So I'm going to
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: lean South Florida here slightly just because they just looked
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: so ugly in that first game. But the thing is,
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: South Florida was not good in that game against FIU,
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: even though South Florida was about to cover the number.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: They were like a two-touchdown favorite, and they were winning
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: by 16 really late. And then FIU scored a touchdown
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: on the final play of the game to cover the spread.
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: But if you look at this game... South Florida was
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: terrible in the game. FIU outgained them by almost 200 yards.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: That is not a good sign. So South Florida statistically
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: lost this game. And it was just that FIU kept
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: throwing the game away. They had three turnovers. So USF
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: was plus three in turnovers, and they still didn't do
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: that well in this game. I mean, that's not a
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: good sign. So I don't think I want to back
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: South Florida here. I mean, they're kind of a new team.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: They're rebuilding right now. I just don't want to deal
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: with it. I mean, I do lean South Florida slightly here,
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: but they were worse than they looked in that game.
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: They actually deserved to lose that game. Army looks like
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: they are getting the money here, although they might be
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: kind of public as well. 81% of tickets, 91% of
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. They're around a three-point favorite here.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: Some books have a three-and-a-half. It's mostly three, though. Yeah,
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: I would just slightly lean South Florida there just because
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: I have a tendency to like to play the team
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: that looked real ugly against the team that looked probably
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: too good, but I don't love it. Also, South Florida
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: having to go up to West Point to play this game,
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, not that easy to do, although they're in
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: the same conference, so it's not... a spot that they're not, like,
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: unused to, you know? And then we have an ESPNU
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: game at noon, because I just, I try to hit
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: the TV games here. App State is playing East Carolina.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: This is not a game that I was, that I
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: had any opinion on, really. East Carolina... Did play the
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: tougher opponent in their first game. They played Alabama. It
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: doesn't get a whole lot tougher than that. And, yeah,
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: they lost pretty badly at Alabama. But this will be
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: East Carolina's home opener. They should be a little bit battle-tested,
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: at least after that game. App State coming in after
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: crushing Maine. Not a lot to see there. I mean,
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: that's a win that, you know, is not really an
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: impressive win against an FCS team, I believe, in Maine.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: Now App State having to go on the road, although
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: they're staying in the state of North Carolina here. This
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: is an in-state rivalry game. So I think both teams
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: kind of do show up here because basically whenever you
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: play another team in your state, you kind of get
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: up for it. I think App State kind of considers
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: themselves to be the little brother here, too. because I
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: think the Sun Belt is considered to be the lesser
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: conference than the American, I think is where East Carolina is.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I still would probably lay it with
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: East Carolina if I was going to play this, but
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: they actually dropped from 9.5 to 6.5. But I don't
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: know if there are any injuries here, but that might
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: be one of those false moves. So sometimes you see
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: the line move early, and then the money actually comes
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: in against that move. You see 67% of tickets, 81%
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: of the cash on East Carolina moves, So it does
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: look like the line, it might have been a false move.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: Like sometimes professionals will do that when they know that
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: they can influence the line and they actually want the
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: other side. And they're like, oh, they might be able
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: to drive this thing down below that seven. And maybe
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: they actually, if that's what they actually intended to do,
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: they actually succeeded in that. So now you'd get East
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: Carolina below that touchdown there. I think I would probably
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: lean towards laying it, but that one's a really weak
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: opinion for me as well. 12.45 Eastern, weird time, Western
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: Kentucky at number two, Georgia. Georgia, massive favorite here, obviously.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: This is on the SEC network. Kirby Smart, I don't
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: think he's known for really particularly running up the score,
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: but Georgia did just annihilate Tennessee State in their first game.
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much they really care about this
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: Western Kentucky game, really. I mean, Might be a kind
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: of get-in, get-out type of game. Georgia does play Arkansas
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: next to start SEC play, even though Arkansas is not
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: a great team. That might be still possibly more of
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: a look ahead there. Western Kentucky got embarrassed out in Reno,
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: Nevada in their first game. Now they're having to travel
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: again and play a second straight road game, and then
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: they have a third straight road game next week, which
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: is going to be... That's always difficult when you have
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: three road games in three weeks. Now, I did like Nevada...
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: In that game last week, I just thought it was
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: a weird spot for Western Kentucky to have to go
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: out there, and there was a lot of money coming
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: in on Nevada, and it drove the line down from
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: like four to one, I think, on Western Kentucky there. So, yeah,
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: I had Nevada, I think, in my ESPN pick-em, but
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: did not have them in my pick-five or anything like that. But, yeah,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: Western Kentucky, they got killed in that game, so they
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: might possibly show up here for this one because it
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: was an embarrassing loss. Travel spot, not exactly great here, though.
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: uh but if you're gonna play this game i'd probably
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: take the points with western kentucky georgia 94 of tickets
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: 93 of the cash and then they're laying 40 and
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: a half at some books here so you get a
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: pretty big number if you're gonna take western kentucky there
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: but um yeah i'm not interested in any way though
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: um NBC at 3.30 p.m. as we move to the
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: later afternoon. Rice is playing Notre Dame, number three Notre Dame.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: This is a huge spread. Notre Dame, 44.5-point favorite. Notre
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: Dame looked really good in crushing Wisconsin in that Lambeau
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: Field game in the first game. They do have a
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: bigger game up next against Michigan State for whatever that's worth,
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: although Michigan State kind of rebuilding. So is Notre Dame
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: going to overlook Rice here? maybe although this might be
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: a game where Notre Dame might just be able to
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: name the score as well although I believe Rice they
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: run the triple options they do some kind of weird
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: stuff but Notre Dame's used to that because Notre Dame
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: they always play Navy and I think possibly Army as
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: well so Notre Dame they're used to defending against the
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: triple option so I don't think Rice if they run
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: that still is going to really be able to throw
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: them off Rice beat their in-city little brother Houston Christian
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: in their last game It's going to be tough going
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: into South Bend, though, for Rice here. I don't have
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: much of a feel for this game at all. Notre
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: Dame's heavily public because, of course, they are. 87% of tickets,
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: 88% of the cash, and then they're laying 44.5%, like
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: I said. Basically, that's the number everywhere. It hasn't really moved.
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: I'd probably lean towards taking the points in that one,
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: but I don't have a feel for it at all.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: Number 12, Alabama at Kentucky on ABC at 3.30 p.m.
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: This is going to be one of the big games
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: of the day. I never really actually know where College
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: Game Day is, although I guess it must be the
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: ESPN game, right? Although the ESPN game primetime is Tennessee-Georgia Tech.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: Is that really where Game Day is? Even though Georgia
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: Tech's not as good this year. Maybe it is because
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: there aren't really that many big games here. I don't know. Anyway,
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: Alabama at Kentucky. This is an interesting game. Um, and
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: this one is on, um, I mean, I think it
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: kind of is interesting, but really just the line is interesting.
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: Alabama is only laying 10 here. It looks way too
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: easy to play Alabama, Kentucky. I mean, we don't really
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: know what we're going to get out of them this year.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: I don't think, uh, they just beat Youngstown state. It
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: doesn't really matter, but they're going to get up for
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: this game against Alabama, at least in Alabama. Um, Like
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: I said, they beat East Carolina really easily. They look good.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's Alabama. I mean, this is, I believe,
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: DeBoer's third year there, so Alabama should be taking another
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: step forward here. But to me, this looks like kind
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: of a tricky spot for them, and I don't really
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: have anything to talk about with the situation here, but
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: I think I would lean taking the points with Kentucky
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: here just because it looks way too easy to play
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: Alabama at minus 10 or even at minus 10.5. It
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: looks like it's mostly 10 out there, although if you
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: want Kentucky... I'd try to find the 10.5 because you
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: get that hook on that key number at least. But
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: it's a low total, 48.5. So the oddsmakers are expecting
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: Kentucky to be kind of an annoying, slow-down defensive team again.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: So Alabama not really expected to put up as many
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: points as they did last time. You know, like I said,
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: I like to take underdogs when it's a low total
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: a lot of times. Double-digit dog with a low total.
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: That's what you're getting here. Alabama's also public, of course,
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: 71% of the tickets on them. The money looks like
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: it's on Kentucky, though, 53% of the cash on them.
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: I like to have a situation because I'm a situational guy.
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: That's how I do this. I like to have a
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: situation backing me up, but just pure market read on
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: that one is pretty much saying take the points with
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: Kentucky there. So I will agree with that. Arizona's at
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: number 15, BYU, 3.30 p.m. on Fox. BYU crushed Utah
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: Tech in their first game. Whatever. It's an FCS little
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: brother there. BYU might be good, though. They're bringing back
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: a lot of their starters here, including their quarterback. Bachmeier,
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: I think, is his name. And BYU... They're a physical team, man,
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: and they give Big 12 teams some problems because they're physical. Basically,
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: it's like BYU and Utah are the two teams that
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: do that in this conference. And Arizona might struggle a
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: little bit going into elevation, having to face a physical
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: team like BYU. Arizona just beat one of their in-state
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: little brothers, Northern Arizona. Who cares? So there's nothing really
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: gauged from what these teams did in their first game.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: And if anything, BYU maybe looks a little bit too good.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: After that first result, but BYU, I mean, yeah, they
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: face Colorado State next. I mean, whatever. I mean, that's
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: a former Mountain West matchup. I think both teams are
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: not even in the Mountain West anymore. Is Colorado State
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: still in the Mountain West? I can't remember who's in
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: the Pac-12 now, man, the newly formed Pac-12. The money
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: is fading BYU here. BYU is getting the public action,
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: 78% of tickets, only 51% of the cash on them.
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: The number's 7.5, and the number has not moved. But
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: the fact that it's 7.5 and it's not 6.5, I
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: don't know, man. I mean, to me, that kind of
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: seems like the oddsmakers are like, I don't know. It
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: seems like they're kind of trying to get you to
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: shy away from BYU a little bit because that number's
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: above the touchdown. But it looks like the public's not
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: doing that. It looks like they're on BYU and the
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: money's coming in on Arizona. I'm not so sure about that.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: I've heard some professional opinions, some fairly strong ones, liking
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: BYU in that one. I think I might agree with
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: them and lean towards BYU in that one. I don't
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: really have a strong opinion on that game at all, though.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: The total is low, 48.5, so I don't usually love
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: laying points to the total like that, but It's not
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: a huge total there. And Arizona, like I said, they
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: might struggle in the high elevation and against the physicality
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: of BYU. And with BYU having more returning starters and stuff.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens. Utah staying at number 19, Washington.
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: Washington staying at home. Washington did beat Washington State, which
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: you might say maybe it's a letdown after that because
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: they won their rivalry game in the apple cup but
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: you could also make the opposite argument because like i
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: said washington was a big favorite in that game they
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: didn't cover and they were only winning by seven late
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: in that game it was kind of an ugly game
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: it was 17 to 10 in the fourth quarter so
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: washington's kind of coming off a little bit of a
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: scare there so you might be able to make the
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: argument that washington should be more focused in this game
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: now utah state They've got to be focused here, though.
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think you've got to lean towards Utah
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: State here because look at what they did in their
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: first game. They lost their home opener against Idaho State,
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: who is an FCS team. I think Idaho State is
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: a decent FCS team, but still, Utah State was a 15.5-point
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: favorite in that game when the line closed, and they
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: lost the game by 12. And like I said, I
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: like playing on teams that loss is a big favorite.
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: to bounce back because it's like they get shocked back
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: into focus you know and Utah State should have won
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: this game they dominated the game um the they had
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: a total yard edge of over 150 yards but they
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: lost and they dominated the first down battle too they
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: won the possession battle by quite a bit too how
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: did they lose because they had four turnovers they're minus
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: four in turnovers that's how they lost and I believe
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: Utah State has Bronco Mendenhall there so he's A pretty
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: good coach. He's going to clean that shit up, in
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: my opinion. So I like Utah State in this game
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: to bounce back coming off of that horrendous, misleading loss,
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: by the way. Because, again, Utah State should have won
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: that game easily based on how that game looked statistically.
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: It was just the turnovers changed the game completely. the
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: money seems to agree with me on this one. 83%
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: of tickets on Washington, 67% of the cash on them.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: The total, or excuse me, the minus 27 and a half.
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: So you're getting on that key number there. If you're
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: going to take Utah State there, that is what I
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: would do. I would lean Utah State, but I worry
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: a little bit that Washington might show up a little
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: bit more focused too because they had that kind of
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: ugly close game in their last game. But Utah State's
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: got to be in the more heavy bounce back spot there.
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: So that's how I look at that game. Washington does
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: not have a big game up next, by the way,
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: so it's not a sandwich spot or anything. CBS at 330,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: Mississippi State at Minnesota. Not much of a situation to
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: look at here as Minnesota beat Eastern Illinois easily in
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: their first game. Mississippi State also beat some, well, they
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: beat less of a cupcake, actually. They beat at least
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: an FBS team, UL Monroe, although they're not a good
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: FBS team, but that's a little bit more of an
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: impressive win for Mississippi State there, but the public is
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: on Mississippi state in this one because they're an sec team.
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: I think that's why they're getting the love here. Like
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: the sec, they still get all this hype, man. And
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: I agree. I think the sec is the more balanced,
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: like I think on average, the sec is probably the better, um,
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: conference over the big 10, but the big 10 has
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: all the top teams in it pretty much. So like
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: the big 10 is top heavy and has like three
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: of the top five teams in the country in it.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: But like the, lower teams in the Big Ten are
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: real bad, whereas in the SEC, none of these teams
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: in the SEC, I wouldn't say are real bad. Mississippi
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: State is one of the low-tier teams here, though. Going
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: to Minnesota, kind of an odd spot for them, and
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: they will have their SEC opener next week against, I
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: believe it's next week, against South Carolina. For Minnesota, this
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: will be at least their first home FBS game, and
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: they are staying at home. I don't have much of
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: a read on this, but I can tell you the
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: market read is... is saying Minnesota. And I've heard professionals
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: agreeing with that. That looks like it's where the professional
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: money is. Minnesota, 51% of tickets, 91% of the cash
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: on them. It's like a pick-em price pretty much. So
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: it does look kind of easy to take the SEC
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: team there that looked more impressive. And I would say, yeah,
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: Mississippi State's win was more impressive in the first game.
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: But I'm going to lean Minnesota in that game. That
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: is where the money is. So that's what I would
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: say in that game. Garrett, what's up? Thank you, sir. Um, yeah,
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: that gave us a slight winning day cause Villanova sucked
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: it up. Villanova was looking good too, man. I'll rant
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: about it in the morning tomorrow, but they were looking
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: good midway through the second half and the second quarter.
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, then yeah, all hell broke loose and then
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: they still had a chance to cover later. They were covering,
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: I think late in the third quarter they were covering again. Uh,
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: Villanova was, I'm pissed about it, man. And we're going
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: to have to, uh, I'm going to have some plays
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: like that tomorrow too. So, um, All right, what else
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: do we have here? ESPN2 at 3.30 p.m., UCF at Pittsburgh.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: I believe UCF did not win a single conference road
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: game all of last year. So this UCF team, they
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: don't do well on the road, man. Or they didn't
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: win a single power conference road game, I should say,
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: because this is not a conference matchup. This is Big
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: 12 versus ACC. But UCF, they do not do well
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: recently against other power conference teams on the road. UCF
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: crushed Bethune-Cookman in their first game, but what does that
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: really tell us? Not a lot, I don't think. Pittsburgh,
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: they looked good in their first game, too. They annihilated Miami, Ohio,
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: and that's more impressive, at least, because Miami, Ohio, even
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: though they're, I don't think they're that good right now,
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: and they're rebuilding right now. They're a MAAC team. That's
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: still more, I think that's still a more impressive win
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: than beating Bethune-Cookman, who's not an FBS team. So, Pittsburgh
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: looked good there. They're staying at home. Pittsburgh's got some
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: continuity here. They're bringing back their, uh, quarterback from last year, Heinschel,
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: assuming there were no injuries or whatever. I think I
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: would have to lay the points with Pittsburgh in this one,
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: but again, it's not a strong opinion for me. I'm
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: just talking about all these games and giving what my
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: opinion would be. 71% of tickets, 81% of the cash
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh, so it looks like they might be public,
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: but they're getting the money as well. They're 7.5. It
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: looks like you might be able to find a 7
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: out there, which of course, laying the 7 is preferable
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: to laying the 7.5, so And the total is somewhat high,
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: high 50s, so more conducive to laying a point spread
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: like that. Also at 330, Cal at Syracuse on the
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: ACC network. Cal has to make these weird trips, man.
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: They've got to go to upstate New York for this.
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: You know, with Cal being kind of new to the
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: ACC still, this is not a typical travel spot for them. Although, yes,
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: they're used to traveling to the eastern time zone now
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: at least, but it's still kind of a weird spot
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: for them. Cal didn't look good in their first game
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: against UCLA, but that was still a rivalry game, and
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: now they're having to pack up and go to Syracuse,
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: who was not good at all last year. Syracuse is
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: staying at home, although Syracuse did look good in their
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: first game, crushing UNH, although that's an FCS school, so whatever. Garrett,
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: what's up, man? Thanks for hanging out for a little while, man. Yeah,
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: get some sleep, man. You have to work on a weekend?
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: What the hell, man? All right. Yeah, so this game
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: is tough because Syracuse looked way better in their first game,
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: but they did it against a much lesser opponent. But
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: Cal has a weird travel spot here. So what the
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: hell do we do with this game? No idea. No idea, man.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: Syracuse looks like they're getting some of the money here.
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: 64% of tickets, 70% of the cash on them. Some
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: real money looks like it did come in on them
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: because they opened one and a half, and if you
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: like Syracuse, you kind of missed the boat on that
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: because they're three and a half now. I think I'm
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: going to lean Syracuse here, and that looks like it's
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: where the money is coming in. I think it's just
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: a weird travel spot for Cal, although I could see
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: the argument the other way, like, oh, well, Cal looked
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: way worse in the first game, and they played a
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: much more difficult opponent in the first game. Yeah, that
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: is also true, so I don't have much of a
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: read on that, but it looks like the money is
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: on Syracuse in that one. But again, if you like it, 3.5.
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: I don't think I'd want to lay 3.5 when it
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: opened at 1.5, so whatever. Duke at Illinois, also 3.30 p.m.
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: on Fox Sports 1. Illinois coming off this game against UAB,
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: where I believe Illinois did not cover that game. They
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: won by almost 20. But if you dig into this game,
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: Illinois did not play well. They won the turnover battle.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: And yeah, they wound up winning the game, but they
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: got outgained by almost 100 by UAB. That's not good, man.
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: Illinois has a 25.5 point favorite. They came somewhat close
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: to covering here. But yeah, the final score was misleading
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: because UAB could have actually hung around in this game. Again,
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: they kind of won the stat sheet. They dominated the
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: time of possession. Although I know I'm fading. One team
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: had dominated possession already. or one team that, uh, I'm
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: playing on a team that got dominated, uh, in possession.
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, I am also fading the other side of that,
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: by the way, if you didn't know yet, I haven't
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: gotten to that game yet, but yeah. Um, I'm talking
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: about Michigan and Western Michigan anyway. Um, yeah, UAB kind of,
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: they won this game statistically against Illinois. There's no, no
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: way else to, there's no other way to put that. Um, Yeah,
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: UAB won the first down battle as well, so that
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: worries me about Illinois. They were nowhere near as good
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: as it looked on the scoreboard. Meanwhile, Duke beat Tulane,
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: but kind of unimpressively, winning 17-3. This new roster that
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: Duke has here. If you dig into it, though, Duke
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: was the better team. They outgained Tulane by over 100 yards.
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: They doubled their first downs, dominated possessions. So Duke was
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: the better team here. They looked ugly. Illinois looked better,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: scoring a bunch of points. But dig into the stat sheet, man.
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: Duke legitimately won their game, and Illinois did not. So
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: I like Duke in this game. And it's also revenge,
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: because if you remember Duke last year, I believe they
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: hosted Illinois last year. Duke lost the game, and it
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: was because Duke was minus five in turnovers. So Duke
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: statistically won the game last year against Illinois, but they
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: lost on turnovers. That was misleading. Duke does have a
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: new quarterback now because their quarterback from last year, Mensah,
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: is now on Miami. So some of these Duke players
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: were not there for that game, but maybe it is
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: still kind of a legitimate revenge game. And if anything,
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: people will look at that last year. If they do
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: look at that game last year, oh, Illinois beat Duke
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: last year, maybe the public will think, well, it's going
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: to be revenge now. But maybe they'll think, well, Illinois
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: might be the better team here, but I don't think so. Plus,
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: Illinois is not the same team here either, though. They
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: lost their quarterback, Altmyer, to the NFL draft. But based
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: on what these teams did in their first game, yeah,
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: I would lean towards Duke here. You're getting six points
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: here with Duke as well. Duke definitely considered to be
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: significantly worse than they were last year. I mean, I
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: don't think Illinois is going to be very impressed with this.
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: In fact, I think both teams might be worse this year,
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: but Duke is expected to take a major step back
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: because of the loss of Mensa and whatever, and they
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: kind of, Duke kind of fluked last year to win
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: the ACC, but still, Duke should have beaten Illinois in
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: that game last year, and Duke, again, in the first
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: week's game, Duke looked uglier than Illinois did, but it
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: was misleading. Like I said, Duke did actually legitimately win
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: their game, whereas Illinois did not. So yeah, I would
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: take the points with Duke here. Illinois, 71% of tickets
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: on them. 53% of the cash on Duke, so the
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: money seems to agree with me on that. I don't
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: think this number ever actually hit a 7, so you're
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: not missing out on a key number there, really. You
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: can get 6 with Duke, it looks like. So if
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: I was going to play it, that is what I
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: would do. Eastern Michigan at Michigan State on Big Ten
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: Network at 3.30 p.m. Michigan State kind of had a
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: close call with Toledo in their first game, man. Michigan State,
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: their first game in the Pat Fitzgerald era. Uh, they
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: wound up landing right on that number of 10, um,
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: against Toledo. And I liked Toledo to cover that game.
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: And they almost did. Michigan state was losing the game
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: at the, or in the early fourth quarter, man, uh,
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: Toledo had a one point lead and the Michigan state
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: was able to score twice and win the game. Now,
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: Michigan state did kind of dominate the game though. Uh,
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: they dominated the first down battle, uh, dominated the yardage battle,
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: dominated possession completely. So this game wasn't what it really
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: looked like. Um, But yeah, Michigan State, you could argue
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: they did have a scare here, too. Plus, they also
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: played better than it looked. So Michigan State, that's the
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: type of thing where I look to play on that
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: team after they put a performance together like that. Eastern Michigan, though,
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: you know they're going to show up for this because
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: they're a little brother in the state of... Michigan here
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: and they're staying in the state of Michigan, Eastern Michigan.
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: I thought they would win last week against San Jose state.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: And they did win in week zero as my first
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: winning play. My first play of the season was a
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: win and we haven't won since then. So that's great.
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: Owned four since then. Isn't that awesome? But yeah, Eastern Michigan,
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: I thought they would beat San Jose state last week
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: and they did not. San Jose state legitimately won though.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: San Jose state dominated the game at least in yardage
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: and whatever. So I don't know, man. I mean, Eastern Michigan,
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: usually I do like to look towards the in-state little
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: brother in a game like this, but I'm not so
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: sure on this one. I think Michigan State is better
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: than they looked in that first game. They got a
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: little bit of a scare there. So I like Michigan
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: State after getting that scare as a double-digit favorite. They
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: have 70% of tickets, 83% of the cash on them.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: They've been a 17.5-point favorite all week. I think I
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: would lay it with Michigan State if I was going
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: to play it but I'm not going to and the
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: total is also kind of low 49 and a half
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: and you know me I don't really love laying a
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: huge spread like that with a total that's that low
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: all right Also 3.30 p.m. on CBS Sports, Maryland at UConn.
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: Trying to hit all the TV games here, man. UConn
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: coming off a win over Lafayette, whatever, doesn't really matter. UConn,
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: they got a new coach here, new system. They lost
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: their quarterback. The main reason why UConn was good last
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: year was Fagnano, who's now in the NFL. They don't
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: have him anymore. So this UConn team, I think, is
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: definitely taking a step back this year. And the oddsmakers
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: are telling you that, which is why Maryland is a
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: double-digit favorite. Maryland coming off beating Hampton in their first game.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: So neither team, you can really gauge much from what
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: they did in their first game. It's a little bit
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: of a weird travel spot for Maryland to have to
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: go up to UConn here. But I don't know, man.
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: To me, it almost seems like the oddsmakers are kind
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: of telling you something with Maryland being an 11.5-point favorite,
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: although they actually opened 13.5 and it dropped, but UConn
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: kind of looks like a public underdog here. 68% of
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: tickets and 63% of the cash in them, and I
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: think it's because people are remembering, oh yeah, UConn, they
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: had that good passing attack last year, and they made
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: a bowl and whatever, and Maryland, what did they do
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: last year? They probably didn't even make a bowl, so
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: I think people are kind of remembering last year and
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: maybe thinking, how am I getting this many points at
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: home with UConn? So I don't know, man. I think
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: I might lean towards laying the points with Maryland in
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: this one. Not a strong opinion from me, but Yeah,
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: I think that might be the way I would go
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: in that one. It looks like that's where the money
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: is coming, or sort of. It looks like UConn's a
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: public dog there. All right, CW. Also at 330, Battle
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: of Texas, UTSA and Texas State. If you like points,
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: you're going to probably want to tune into this one
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: because the total is 66.5 or something. So it's expected
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: to be high scoring, probably, because I think you're looking
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: at two pretty good offenses and not so good defenses here.
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: Texas State got killed by Texas in their first game.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, I expected it to be a little bit closer,
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: but obviously that was still a mismatch there. UTSA won
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: their first game, but they played UT Rio Grande Valley,
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: who was an FCS team, I think. So not much
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: to really take away from either of those games there.
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: Texas State's a one-and-a-half-point favorite, so this is basically a
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: pick-the-winner type of game here. Texas State is now in
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: the Mountain West, I believe, but this is not going
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: to be a weird travel spot for either team because
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: it's just San Antonio, Texas-San Antonio going to San Marcos
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: or whatever. Yeah, not a weird travel spot for UTSA there.
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: The market read is all over UTSA here, and I probably,
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I agree. I mean, I don't know.
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, Texas State faced the more difficult opponent in
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: the first game, so they're more battle-tested, if you will,
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: and they looked way worse, I guess, because they got
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: blown out. Texas State, 54% of tickets on them, 80%
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: of the cash on UTSA, though. but it looks like
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: the line initially flipped from UTSA being a fair to
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: Texas state being favored one and a half or two
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: or two and a half year. I don't know what
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: to do with this. I mean, the money's coming in
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: on UTSA. Um, yeah, I don't have a strong opinion
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: on this. Uh, Maybe the over makes more sense than
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: looking at the side in this one. I don't do
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: much with totals, but it's a high total. It's high
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: for a reason. As I always say, if the total
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: is that high, 66, and it does look like the
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: money is slightly tilted towards the over, although it's kind
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: of a public over. But, yeah, I could see points
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: being scored in that game because I know these teams
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: have had good offenses in recent years. So I think
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: these teams could definitely put up points.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: And again, if I'm skipping a game that you want
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: me to talk about, I can go back and do it.
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: I was considering fading UMass because this is an FBS
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: versus FCS game, and we know UMass. They pulled off
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: that ridiculous 30-point upset of Rutgers, right? So I'm thinking, yeah,
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a letdown spot for UMass. So
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: I'd be possibly looking towards taking Sacred Heart here because
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: everybody was hyping up UMass after that, talking about UMass.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're still not a good team. Problem is
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: Sacred Heart, they almost pulled off the upset against Monmouth
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: in their last game, so Sacred Heart's coming off a
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: big performance as well, where they were double-digit dogs against Monmouth, 11.5
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: point dogs, and this was a tied game in the
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: final minutes of the game, so Sacred Heart also kind
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: of in a hangover type of spot, letdown spot here,
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: so I will not be recommending doing anything with that game.
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: The money looks like it's slightly on UMass. 84% of tickets,
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: 94% of the cash on them at 23 and a half.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: I still think I would lean towards taking the points
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: with Sacred Heart there. I mean, I'm not convinced that
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: UMass is all of a sudden significantly better than what
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: they were last year, which is the worst team in
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: all of FBS to the point where I think that
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: they said they're moving back to FCS, but I don't know.
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: But They're playing Sacred Hearts and FCS team here. UMass
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: is obviously the better of those two teams. But UMass
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: going from being a massive dog to being now a
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: massive favorite, I think you probably got to look towards
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: Sacred Heart there on that one. All right. I figured
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: I'd just talk about that one briefly. 3.45 p.m. Eastern
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: on ESPNU. UNLV is going to North Texas. This is
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: a weird spot for UNLV, man. They opened the season
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: in that big game against Memphis and lost. Then they
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: had to go out to Hawaii. I thought that was
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: going to be a weird travel spot for UNLV, but
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: they went out there and they beat Hawaii. Neither offense
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: was good in that game, and neither quarterback did well.
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: Although UNLV has Jackson Arnold, who, you know, he's got
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: experience with Oklahoma and Auburn, but I guess there's a
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: reason why he's on UNLV now, because I guess he
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: couldn't cut it with those better teams. But now UNLV,
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: second straight road game, and they're having to travel back
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: from Hawaii. Kind of a weird spot here, man, with
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: no week off. I think the travel spot's not great
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: for them. And North Texas has only played one game
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: so far, and they got crushed by Indiana. But what
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: can you really take away from that? I mean, that
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: was just a complete mismatch. And yes, North Texas, they're
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: having a new system being put in with a new
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: coach and whatever. I still think I would lean North
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: Texas in this one, though, definitely. It's just an odd
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: travel spot for UNLV, although the money seems kind of
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: towards UNLV here. 63% of the tickets, 70% of the
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: cash on them. They're a three-point favorite, though. Three and
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: a half down from five and a half. I think
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: if you like North Texas, at least get the three
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: on that. Three and a half. I mean, four, four
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: and a half are slightly key, but three and a
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: half is the most key. And three, I mean. So, yeah,
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: I would lean slightly towards North Texas. The initial move
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: was in that direction, although it is also a high
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: total in that one. I don't necessarily love taking a
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: dog with a high total like that. All right. What
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: else do we have here? Keeping it moving, man. Keeping
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: it moving. Delaware and Vandy on the SEC Network. This
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: is kind of a weird one. Vandy beat in-state little
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: brother Austin Peay in their first game. But this is,
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: of course, Vandy with no more. Pavia, although they still
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: have their coach there, has done a good job turning
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: this program around. But Vandy, they're going to take a
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: step back without Pavia there. Now we'll see if they can...
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: perform against Delaware, and then Vandy does play NC State next,
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: which is going to be a bigger game than this one. Yeah,
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: Chuck Lee, is that his name? Yeah, Lee is the
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: coach there. This bald gentleman here. Delaware beat Merrimack in
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: their first game, an FCS team, whatever. I mean, Delaware
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: might get up for this game, though, because, oh yeah,
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: we get to play an SEC team here, and.
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: The public's probably still remembering last year, plus Vandy's an
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: SEC team, so the public's going to come in on Vandy,
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: and that is what they're doing. There's 71% of the
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: tickets on them, 78% of the cash on Delaware, though.
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: Vandy's laying three touchdowns here, 21, 21.5. I would try
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: to get that key number, and I would take 21
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: or 21.5 with Delaware if I was going to play
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: that one. I won't because there's no real situation for it,
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: but I think Vandy's probably going to be a bit overvalued, right?
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: Because people just remember what they were last year and whatever.
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: All right. USA Network, as we move to 6 p.m.
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: Now.
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: Memphis and Boise State, this is an interesting one. This
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: is a stronger opinion for me, but I don't think
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: I really want to do it. But Boise, they're coming
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: up a huge game against Oregon. They were close in
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: that game against Oregon, man, and they were a big
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: underdog in that one. Huge game on the road against
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: the number two team in the country. When a team
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: puts in a performance like that, I tend to think
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: they fall flat in their next game. So I like
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: Memphis in this game, but there are a couple of
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: reasons why I don't quite want to do it. This
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: is Boise's home opener, and it's at least against an
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: FCS team. It's a decent team in Memphis, so Boise...
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: may not totally overlook it for that reason. And they
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: may still be a little bit pumped up for it.
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: Plus they got to win a game here. Memphis. It's
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: just kind of a weird travel spot for them having
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: to go out to Boise, although they were already out
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: at UNLV. So Memphis was already in Las Vegas. So
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: going out to Boise should be a little bit less
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: weird at least, but, um, Still, I think Boise, correct
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: me if I'm wrong, but I believe Boise's at a
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: higher elevation than Las Vegas is, so it might be
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: a little bit weird for Memphis for that reason. We
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: tried to fade Memphis last week because I thought they
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: were in a sandwich spot between these two big games,
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: and Arkansas State was hanging around there, and they just missed, man.
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: They missed the cover by a touchdown. I think we
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: had 11.5 in that one. They lost by 18. They
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: were hanging around. It was looking good in the middle
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: of the game. Arkansas State had the lead, so I
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: don't know. Although you could argue Memphis got a little
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: bit of a scare from that. so I do like
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: Memphis here I think Boise is in much more of
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: a fade spot here because of the coming off that
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: huge game against Oregon. So I would take Memphis if
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: I was going to play this one. The money seems
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: to slightly agree. 55% of tickets on Boise. Surprised it's
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: not higher than that, really. 53% of the tickets on Memphis.
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: You're getting eight, nine and a half actually now. Nine
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: or nine and a half here now is the number
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: on Memphis. Kind of a high total, but yeah, I
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: would take the points in Memphis if I was going
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: to play it, but I do not really want to.
• 59:43
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: Buffalo and FIU, I was thinking this one might make
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: the cut for me, but I don't think it will.
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: So FIU, they're coming up a big game against South Florida. Again,
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: it wasn't really that close, though, although as I did
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: point out, Florida, FIU did outplay South Florida in that game.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: As I pointed out, it was a misleading score. FIU
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: should have won that game. They won the game statistically.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: Could still be a letdown coming off of that, though,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: because it was a big game. Like, Florida Internationals, the
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: little brother in that game. Remember when I called them
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: Florida-Illinois by accident? Yeah, you guys won't let me live
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: that down. Well, FIU does also have their main rival
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: next week, which is FAU, Florida-Atlantic. Those teams are, that's
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: like a big rivalry between those two teams, so This
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: is a Florida sandwich. A nice Cubano, I guess, is
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: what FIU is in here. But they're at home against Buffalo,
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: so it's kind of a weird travel spot for Buffalo
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: to have to go down here. So that's one thing
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: that worries me about playing. I lean Buffalo here, but
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: that's one reason that it worries me about Buffalo a
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: little bit here. Is it a Buffalo sandwich, actually? I
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: don't know. No, I think it would only be a
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: Buffalo chicken sandwich if you... Had Buffalo, if you had
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: a game in between two games against Buffalo. Anyway, yeah.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: My other hesitation, like I said, is that FIU was
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: actually way better in that South Florida game than the
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: final score. It makes it look like they actually should
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: have won that game. So that's the other thing that
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: concerns me about FIU. Although Buffalo, they're coming off an
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: ugly game where they barely got by Albany. So Buffalo
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: should be up for this game after this. They're 18.5-point favorites.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: In that game, they almost lost to Albany. And in fact,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: they had to score a late touchdown to win that
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: game against Albany. And Buffalo should have won that game
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: a little bit more easily. They did win the yardage
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: battle in the game. Not by a ton, but they
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: still did win it. But Albany is a little brother
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: to Buffalo. You know, Albany, FCS team, whatever, in the
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: state of New York. So Albany gets up for a
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: game like that, you know. So Buffalo should be kind
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: of scared back into focus after that. FIU is kind
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: of in somewhat of a sandwich here. So I like
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: Buffalo in this one. The money doesn't agree with me, though.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: 94% of the tickets and 89% of the cash on Buffalo,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: making them look like they're a public dog. But it
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: is a low total that's gone down a bit. The
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: money's hitting the under pretty strongly here. It's at 47.5 now.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: With a spread of 10.5 and a total that low,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: that also makes me want the underdog. Because every point
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: is worth more. If I haven't explained that, when the
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: total's low, the points are worth more because it's expected
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: to be a lower scoring game. So each point is
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: a little bit more valuable. So it's more likely the
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: underdog will be able to hang around and you're potentially
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: getting more value with taking the points there with that dog.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: So I like Buffalo in that one. I think I
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: forgot to handicap Jacksonville State at Ohio. I wasn't really
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: going to talk about it, but let me look real quick. Ohio,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're coming off. Yeah, I believe they hung
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: around for about a half against Nebraska, and then they
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: completely faded in the second half.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if that really matters here.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville State, they got crushed by North Dakota State in
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: their first game, and then they easily beat Eastern Kentucky
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: and FCS team in their second game. Not impressive, but
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: at least they got a win under their belt. This
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: looks like a game where, because everybody kind of knows
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: the name Ohio, they're going to be a public side,
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: and yes, they are. 93% of tickets on Ohio, 92%
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them, so Ohio's very public. And
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: they went up from 1.5 to 2.5. It does look
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: kind of too easy to play Ohio, I would say,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: even though they are 0-1, I think, right now. People just,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: they know the name Ohio, and yeah, they're one of
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: the better MAAC teams usually, but Whatever. I mean, Jacksonville State,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, the MAAC's not a good conference. I mean,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: I know Jacksonville State's in CUSA or whatever, also not
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: a good conference, but they moved up to FBS not
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: too long ago, so people don't really think about Jacksonville State.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: But obviously the Osmakers are telling you these teams are
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: basically evenly matched here with Ohio basically just getting like
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: home field here, which is probably about accurate. It's about
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: two and a half for Ohio in a game like that.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's a little bit less. But yeah, I would
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: lean towards taking it with Jacksonville State there. Plus, Ohio
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: being below that key number three, it just looks way
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: too easy to play Ohio.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: This next game, even though it's an FCS team, you
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: know I'm going to have a play on this one. And, yeah,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: for the second straight night, we're going to take an
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: FCS team. We're going to take Monmouth plus 27.5 against
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: Western Michigan. Now, Monmouth, they do, it seems like you
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: see them, like, playing well against an FBS team. To me,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: it seems like they do it, like, once every year,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: so I don't know. But you know what the handicap
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: is here. Mostly it's we're fading Western Michigan here. I mean,
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: they just had a massive game against Michigan. You know,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: they had the game won, and they should have won it,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: and they celebrated, thought they had won it, And now
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: they have to sit on that game all week, and
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: now it's their home opener. Yeah, but they're playing an
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: FCS team, Monmouth. How does Western Michigan get back up
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: off the mat after that, man? After that massive performance
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: as a big underdog against Michigan, now they're going to
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: be a big favorite against Monmouth. I don't think so, man. Plus,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: Western Michigan, I think they're the type of offense that
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: kind of runs more slow. They run the ball. They
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: play defense. Not exactly what you want when you're laying
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: a ton of points. So there's just all these factors
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: going against Western Michigan here, man. It should be a
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: massive hangover spot. I don't know how you could possibly
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: get a worse hangover spot than that. You go into
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: the big house. You think that you've upset your big brother,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: the University of Michigan, and And the refs give them
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: an extra play. Hail Mary. And Western Michigan loses that game.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: That is unbelievably brutal. And it's not going to be
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: a look-ahead, really. It's Rice next, but it is still
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: at least an FBS game coming up next. But the
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: other side of this, I like Monmouth to be in
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: more of a focused spot here because they haven't started
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: out the season that well. They lost at Tennessee Tech,
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: which was not great, although they were actually an underdog
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: in that game. Tennessee Tech actually better than Monmouth. But
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: then the last game, Monmouth almost lost to Sacred Heart,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: as I already pointed out. Monmouth was an 11.5-point favorite
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: in this game, and they did get outgained in the game,
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: so that does worry me a little bit. It was
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: somewhat close, though, though Sacred Heart outpossessed them by quite
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: a bit. But I think Monmouth might have just... I
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: don't know, man. Honestly, I don't know what it was.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: I don't know if maybe they were looking ahead to
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: the Western Michigan game, because... When an FCS team steps
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: up and plays an FBS team, it is a bigger
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: game for them. So the FCS team usually steps it
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: up for a game like that. But yeah, Monmouth coming
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: off a game where they almost lost as a huge favorite,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: and they had to score late in the game. A
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: touchdown late to win that game. Yeah, they got a
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: scare put into them. So I think Monmouth is in
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: a focus spot. Western Michigan is in one of the
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: worst spots that I've seen. I don't see how they
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: get up for this game. So yeah, Monmouth will be
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: the play here in this one. even though I am
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: going back to an FCS game here. We don't even
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: have the market read on this yet, but it does
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: look like the line is kind of moving around a
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: little bit. I would try to get at least 27
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: on this and get on that key number. The total's
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: not too high in the low 50s, so whatever. I
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: told you I'm going to have some massive underdogs here.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: It's just the way the situation's worked out, man. ESPN,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: the game that may or may not be the game
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: day game, number 18, Tennessee at Georgia Tech here. And yes,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: I know Monmouth, going from Monmouth, New Jersey over to
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: Michigan is kind of a weird spot, but whatever. It's
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: not like they're going out to the Western time zone
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: or anything like that. Anyway, number 18, Tennessee at Georgia Tech.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: Tennessee is going to wind up being public because, you know,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: everybody likes Josh Hypo with his high-flying Tennessee offense and
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: everybody likes the SEC team. Georgia Tech did not look
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: good when we saw them play against Colorado. In fact,
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: Georgia Tech lost at home as an underdog. Excuse me,
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: as a favorite, excuse me. Georgia Tech was like a six,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: six and a half point favorite. I told you I
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: kind of liked Colorado in that one. Now Georgia Tech's
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: coming off that, staying at home. I like to play
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: on the team that lost as a favorite. You know
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: what I mean? Because I think they're going to be
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: in a bounce back spot, a refocus spot. You know
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: they'll be focused with Tennessee coming in. So it's a
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: matter of can Georgia Tech actually play well enough to
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: hang within this number here. And I know Georgia Tech,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: taking a step down this year because they lost Haynes
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: King to the NFL draft, whatever. Tennessee, we don't know
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: what they necessarily are yet. I don't remember how much
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: returning production they have here, but they only beat Furman
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: in their first game. So Georgia Tech at least is
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: more battle-tested right now. Tennessee hasn't really played anybody yet.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: Now they've got to go on the road. So yeah,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: I like Georgia Tech in this one. Um, not a
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: strong opinion really, but Tennessee's public 63% of tickets, 53%
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. The line dropped from 13
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: and a half to 11 and a half. So the
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: money has been coming in on Georgia tech. You can
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: get 11.5 or 12 on this. If I was going
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: to play it, yeah, that's what I would do. I
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: would take the points with G-Tech in that one. All right,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: let's keep this going, man. We got Bowling Green and
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: Nebraska on Fox Sports 1. I mean, Nebraska, they pulled
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: away in the It is what it is. I mean, whatever.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: You know, it's nothing to really see there, really. Bowling Green,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: they're coming off a loss to an FCS team, so
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: that's pretty ugly. They lost to Tarleton State, although Tarleton State,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: I think, is actually one of the better FCS teams.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: You remember, I think they made some noise last year
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: in football. And Bowling Green was actually only a one-and-a-half
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: point favorite in that game. So the oddsmakers are actually
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: telling you Tarleton was actually the better team there. even
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: though they're an FCS team. So tough times for Bowling Green, man.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: I think their coach is Eddie George, former Titans running back,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: who I believe went to Bowling Green. I'm pretty sure
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: he's their coach. But things are not going well for
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: Bowling Green, even though they're usually like a good enough
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: MAAC team that they're kind of in the mix there
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: and they usually make the bowl season and whatever. Yeah,
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on with them this year, man.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: They're not a very good team, but Nebraska is also
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: laying 30 and a half points in this one. I mean,
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: I'd probably lean towards taking the points with this one.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: Nebraska doesn't have a big game up next or anything, though.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: But Nebraska, 90% of tickets, 92% of the cash on them.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: But they're a public side. The number's really big, 30.5.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: Bowling Green, they still got to feel embarrassed losing their
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: home opener to an SCS team. So I would think
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: Bowling Green would bounce back a little bit here. I'd
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: probably lean towards taking the points there. All right, what
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: else we got here? I'm skipping some of the ones
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: that are FBS versus FCS, unless you want me to
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: talk about them. Like I said, you can shout it
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: out if you want me to, but I want to
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: not have this go two hours like it used to.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: Trying to fly through these. Tulsa at Sam Houston, this
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: was very, very close to being a play for me.
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: I like Sam Houston in this one. Tulsa, as I
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: already pointed out, they're coming off a big upset. Two
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: years in a row, they upset their in-state big brother,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma State. Big win for Tulsa, and if you look
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: at the scoreboard, Oklahoma State did outgain them, not by
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: a lot, but Oklahoma State dominated the first downs at least.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: And Oklahoma State threw the game away with four turnovers.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: Tulsa plus three in turnovers. That's how they won, man.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: So it was a little bit misleading. Statistically, Oklahoma State
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: should have won in a close game there. Instead, Tulsa
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: pulled off the upset again, big upset in the in-state
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: big brother, little brother situation. I think Tulsa's going to
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: be in a letdown spot here, and it's a weird
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: spot kind of to have to go to Sam Houston.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: I know they only have to go to Texas for this,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: but they're not used to this venue at least because
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: Sam Houston is pretty new to FBS. Sam Houston, they're
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: coming off an ugly game against Troy where they lost
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: to Troy. And they probably should have won the game.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: Sam Houston outgained Troy in the game. So you have
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: a team, Sam Houston was actually better in their game
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: than it looked on the scoreboard by a little bit.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: And you have Tulsa was actually worse than they looked
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: on the scoreboard. So that all points towards Sam Houston.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: The problem I have with it is Troy was a
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: big favorite in this game. They were 15 and a half.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: And you know what I always say, when a team
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: comes really close to pulling off a huge upset like that,
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: which Sam Houston did, It could be a major letdown
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: after that, so that would be my worry with Sam Houston. Interestingly,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: Sam Houston looks like they're a passing attack now, whereas
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: two years ago, I think they were kind of a
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: rushing attack with a dual-threat quarterback, but now they have
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: this guy Locke, not related to Drew Locke, Locke or
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: Lockie with an E there. Looks like he's a passing quarterback, man,
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: so something of note there. But yeah, this game was...
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: You know, I mean, it was within 10 points in
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. Yeah, Sam Houston, I mean, yeah, they
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: did score at the end when it was kind of
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: already too late. They scored a touchdown to cut it
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: back to three. But even so, kind of a close
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: game as a big favorite, as a big underdog there
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: for Sam Houston. So I don't quite want to get
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: on board with this one, but this one is one
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: of my stronger opinions still. I like Sam Houston in
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: this one. The money's not really agreeing, although it dropped
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: off of that key number of 14 really early in
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: the week. It's been 13 and a half all week, so... Yeah,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: you missed that key number, 14, kind of, but it
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: was like never really there. I would take the 13, 13.5
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: with Sam Houston still, though, if I was going to
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: play this. 79% of tickets, 88% of the cash on Tulsa, though.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: They look like a public favorite, but maybe some of
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: the money on Tulsa, but yeah, I would go Sam
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: Houston plus the points in that one. Total's not that high, 51.5.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: All right, what else?
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: We have.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: South Alabama and Tulane, not a TV game, but kind
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: of an interesting game. Two teams that are geographically close
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: and probably kind of get up for a game against
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: each other. Tulane probably considered to be a little bit
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: of the bigger brother here because they're in the American
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: and they made the playoffs last year or whatever. So
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: teams might have a Tulane might have a target on
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: their back, but Tulane, they lost their coach after that.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: So they might be taking a little bit of a
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: step down here. I believe their coach went to Florida, um,
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: Is that right? I think that's right. Tulane, yeah, they
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: looked ugly in their first game against Duke, but it
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: was kind of a competitive game to some extent on
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: the scoreboard. I mean, this was a seven-point game until
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: late in the game when Duke pushed it to 14
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: with a late touchdown. So Tulane was kind of hanging around,
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: and they probably shouldn't have been. As I pointed out,
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: Duke did kind of dominate the stat sheet there, so
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: Duke should have won the game more easily there. So, yeah,
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, Tulane, they're probably worse than they looked in
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: that game. And they're going from a dog to a
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: favorite here, too. So, you know, when you see a
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: team going from a dog role to a favorite role,
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: I tend to like to fade them. And when you
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: see a team going from a favorite role to a
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: dog role, I actually tend to... go more towards that
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: team depending kind of depending on what happened in the
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: uh previous game but yeah that's one thing you look
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: for like when there's just that massive point spread swing
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: from one week to the next and maybe there's a
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: little bit of an overreaction there too I don't think
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: it's an overreaction in this case because Tulane after all
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: they only put up three points but yeah I mean
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: that was a big game for Tulane it was kind
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: of close they put in the effort I know this
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: is going to be it is their home opener right
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: I think so This will be their home opener here,
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: but I don't know, man. I kind of lean South
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: Alabama in this one. South Bama coming up with an
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: easy win over an FCS team, Southeastern Louisiana. But, yeah,
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think Tulane. Even though they're more battle-tested,
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: I think they could be in a little bit of
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: a hangover after that, and I think they were not
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: as good as it even looked on the scoreboard. We
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: don't really see the percentages right now for whatever reason,
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: but the line came out 11.5, and it dropped through
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: that key number of 10. So if you want South Alabama,
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: you did lose the key number there of 10, and
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: it's now 9.5. You might still actually be able to
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: get a 10. Actually, no, it is 10 at some spots.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I think if you're going to take South Alabama...
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: You know, plus 10 is probably where I would do
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: the cutoff there. I wouldn't really want to get the 9.5,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I think I would lean South Alabama somewhat
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: in that game. Oh, what else we got? Big Ten
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: Network at 7.15 p.m. San Diego State at UCLA. Seems
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: kind of weird for this to be a Big Ten game,
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: but whatever. UCLA in the Big Ten. Now, UCLA's coming
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: up with that big rivalry win over California this So
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: possible they won't totally focus here. Although San Diego State
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: is historically a pretty good football program, but I still
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: think they consider themselves to be a little brother to
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: a team like UCLA. This is UCLA's home opener, but
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: I think UCLA, the game against Cal, meant a little
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: bit more to them. And they looked really good in
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: winning that game. San Diego State, we don't really know
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: what they are at this point because they had a
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: win over an FCS team, an easy win against Portland State.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: San Diego State, I do think they get up for
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: this game because they consider themselves to be the little brother.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: I'd probably lean that way slightly. You're getting 12.5 now
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: up from 10.5 on San Diego State here. Public is
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: on UCLA. 88% of the tickets, 93% of the cash
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: on them. UCLA is still dealing with some turnover I
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: should say here with the new coach there who came
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: over from JMU. So while UCLA should be improving, I
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: think it still might take a little while. So Yeah,
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: I would probably lean San Diego State plus the points
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: there slightly. 88% of tickets, 93% of the cash in UCLA,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: which I think that just tells you they're kind of public.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, this is the game day game. I'm an idiot.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: This has to be. Well, it's not on ESPN though.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know. It's on ABC. They're in the ESPN family,
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: but this has to be it, right? How did I
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: overlook this? Number one, Ohio State. Number four, I didn't
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: overlook it, but I already handicapped this game when I
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: went through all the games. But yeah, I forgot this
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: game existed. Number one, Ohio State. Number four, Texas. This
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: is a huge game. Biggest game of the week. It's
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: at Texas. These teams are both obviously playoff contenders here.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: Championship contenders even. I think Ohio State is the best
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: team in the country.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 4: But.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: This is a close line here, man. And Texas has
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: double revenge here. And I'm not going to do it
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: this time. I'm not going to do it. You know
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: that now that I'm, because I played Texas in each
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: of those last two games they played against Ohio State,
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: like two years ago in the playoff. I thought Ohio
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: State looked way too good in the previous game. Texas
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: didn't look good, I think, in that game against Arizona
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: State or whatever. So I was like, yeah, you've got
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: to take the points with Texas against Ohio State there.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: And what happened in that game? We were sitting on
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: Texas plus 6.5. They were down 7 in the red zone,
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: I think, near the end of the game, fourth quarter.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: If Texas scores a touchdown, the game's going to be tied,
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: and the cover's going to be looking pretty good there.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: What happens? No. I think they got sacked and they
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: had a fumble six go the other way and then
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: they lost by 14. Absolutely ridiculous. So Texas, some of
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: these guys from that team are still there. They probably
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: remember that. And then last year, Texas had the opening game,
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: opening week at Ohio State. I give out Texas as
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: a play. I think they were like a one- or
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: two-point dog in that game. And Texas... Won the yardage
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: battle in the game by like 150 yards. Texas was
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: actually the better team in the game statistically, but they
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: lost the game by seven. It was a close game,
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: but they lost 14 to seven. So this is double
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: revenge for Texas now. And I think they remember those games.
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: I think Texas is going to have a little extra
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: motivation in this one, man. And maybe they'll make some adjustments,
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: whereas Ohio State probably kind of remembers what they did
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: against Texas. They're not really going to have that much
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: to change here, especially from last year to this year.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: It's very similar teams. The quarterbacks are the same from
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: last year's game. Coaches are the same, etc. But this
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: time it's in Texas. And I think Texas needs the
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: game a little bit more because they have a more
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: difficult schedule than Ohio State. Whichever team loses this game,
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: they're not going to be out of the playoff or
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: anything like that, you know, because there's the playoff expansion.
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: As long as they do what they need to do
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: for the rest of the season, whoever loses this game,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: they're still going to be on track to make the playoff.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: But Texas, they got a more difficult schedule, man. So
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: I think this game means more to them. They're going
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: to need to win this game, and it's going to
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: be an intense game at night in Austin. You know
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a wild crowd in Austin at night,
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: especially if it's the college game day game. You're going
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: to have a massively... insane, drunk crowd there. So I
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: like Texas in this one. The money's not agreeing with me.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: 61% of tickets, 80% of the cash on Ohio State.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: I don't agree with it. I like Texas. They're minus
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: one and a half here. Money's slightly indicating towards the over, too.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: This game kind of seems like more of an under
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: to me, though, even though I know last year's game
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: went way under. But to me, this seems like it's
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: going to be a defensive battle. Like, both teams... kind
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: of playing the game close to the vest, not trying
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: to make mistakes. To me, big games like this a
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: lot of times tend to go under. So I think
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: it's an under type of game. But I lean Texas
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: in that one. I'm not really a college football totals
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: type of guy. Next game up is the next play
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: for me. Let me take a sip of water here.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: All right. I'm trying to not take a break here
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: as we go through. We don't have too many games left.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: We're in the night, but it will be a two-hour
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: show again. Isn't that just great? So, we have multiple
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: plays to get to here. Two more. This one is Tumor.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: This one is a repeat of what I did last year, actually.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: I made the same play last year, and it won.
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 4: With.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: Not the same teams, obviously. We're going to do this again.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: We're going to take Louisiana Tech plus 35.5 against LSU
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: at LSU again. Louisiana Tech did go into LSU last year,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: and they did cover, even though I know this is
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: a Lane Kiffin offense now. And I think a lot
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: of times he likes to make a statement, but that's
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: what he already did in week one. So I'm doing
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: this because this is a sandwich spot, and it's a
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: little brother spot. So Louisiana Tech, they do tend to
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: step it up against LSU. And last year, the reason
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: why Louisiana Tech covered was because LSU couldn't score in
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: the game. It was a 23-7 final, I think, in
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: favor of LSU. It was like a 13-7 game late
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: in the game, if I remember correctly. LSU just did not...
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: have a good offense in that game. This will be
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: on SEC Network, but look at the spot that LSU
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: is in here, man. Number eight, LSU. They made an
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: absolute statement against Clemson in that first game. I know
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: LSU was a double-digit favorite. Clemson looks like they're really
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: not good, man, at this point. But that was just,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: it was an absolutely dominant performance from LSU in that game.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 2: Nothing misleading about it. They dominated all the stats. Just ridiculous,
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: ridiculous game. The Battle of Death Valley, that was a
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: huge win. And LSU, that was their home opener too,
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 2: so this is not their home opener. Now they get
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: little brother La Tech coming in here, even though... LaTeX
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: did give LSU some issues last year. LSU still won
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: the game pretty easily, so it's probably like whatever. They
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: swat down their little brother, but look who LSU has next, man.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: They got to play Ole Miss and Texas A & M,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: two top 10 ranked teams, both SEC teams. LSU versus
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: Ole Miss has kind of become a rivalry over the
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: last few years. Those are much, much bigger games on deck,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: so I think this is a sandwich spot. That LSU
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: is in. Plus, you know La Tech always gets up
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: for a game like this. Because of the little brother.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: La Tech was pretty good in their first game. They
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: won 80-6 against Northwestern State. So this La Tech team,
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: even though they were a huge favorite. Northwestern State's not
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: a good team. They're not even good for an FCS team,
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: I don't think. La Tech was a 44.5 point favorite
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: in the game. But still, yeah, I mean... They might
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: be able to do something in this game against LSU here.
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: Looks like they do have the same, at least one
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: of the same quarterbacks, Kukuk. I call him the Kukuk clan.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: He's still there for Louisiana Tech. I think he was
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: the starting quarterback in that game for them against LSU
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: last year. But whatever, he's still there. Whatever, man. This
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: is all about the spot, though. And we're getting a
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: ton of points, and I know LSU's the way better
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: team than I know they could kind of name the
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: score or whatever. 91% of tickets on LSU, 89% of
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. They're a 35.5 point favor now,
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: up from 32.5, but I think it's just because they're
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: a public side, LSU, so the money is pretty much
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: agreeing here on the Louisiana Tech side as far as
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: I can see. see reading into this total's not too
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: high 55 and a half money coming in towards the
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: under as well so i think the professional money seems
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: to kind of agree this is kind of a game
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: where lsu is not going to want to do anything
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: that crazy in this game right like i think they
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: might just kind of go vanilla here they know they
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: could just get in get out of this game you
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: don't want to get anybody hurt whatever and then of
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: course the back door in a game like this is
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: open and the underdog because lsu if they have a
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: big lead near the end they might just put in
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: their backups you know what i mean uh so a
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: lot of tech might be able to get some garbage
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: scoring going on there at the end so we're going
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: to take the points in that one i told you
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: we got some huge dogs here man number 13 texas
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: tech is at oregon state kind of a weird spot
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: for a central time i think they're a central time
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: zone team right texas tech I think so. Maybe I'm
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: wrong about that. I know they're in West Texas, kind
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: of in Lubbock, like North Texas, whatever, Northwest Texas. Oregon State,
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: weird travel spot for them to have to go to, though, man.
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: This is on CBS. Texas Tech is definitely the better team,
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: there's no doubt about that. They're ranked 13th in the country.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: They're kind of unimpressive in their first game against Abilene Christian,
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: who is a little brother to them in the state
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: of Texas, but is an FCS team. Now, Texas Tech here...
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: It is still a weird travel spot, man. And Oregon
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: State will still get up for this because they know
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: it's a huge home game for them hosting Texas Tech.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: It's a national TV game, CBS. Oregon State doesn't get
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: that many of those. So they're going to get up
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: for this game. And Texas Tech, possibly they look ahead
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: because they got a Friday game against ranked Houston, which
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: is going to start Big 12 play. So Texas Tech
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: does have a look ahead there to Houston. So I
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: do lean to Oregon State in this one. Oregon State
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: lost to Houston. in their first game, but Oregon State
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: played fairly competitively and they covered. They were a 21
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: point dog in that game. So I don't really want
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: Oregon State here either after a game like that. That
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: was a big game for them against Houston and they
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: covered and it was pretty close actually. Oregon State was
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: within six points in the fourth quarter here until Houston
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: was able to push it back to a two-score lead
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: with five minutes to go. So Oregon State came pretty
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: close as a big dog. So I don't really want
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: them after a game like that, man. So I'm going
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: to leave it alone, but I like Oregon State in
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: that one, if you force me to give you an
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: opinion on it. Money seems like it agrees. 60% of tickets,
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: 88% of the cash on them is a now 26-point dog.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: It opened 27, so it was on that key number briefly, but... Yeah,
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, I would still probably look towards it at 26.
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, once you get into numbers that are that high,
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: the key numbers mean a little bit less. All right,
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: and then NBC at night, we have Iowa State, Iowa
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: in the CyHawk rivalry game between the Cyclones and the Hawkeyes.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: Usually this game is like a noon Eastern game. So
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know why this game's a night game this time.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: It's a national TV game on NBC. Iowa's number 21
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: in the country, and Iowa State, because they all cleared out. Like,
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: Matt Campbell cleared out and left, man, and took back
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: his quarterback with him, whatever, went to Penn State. This
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: is a new, like, rebuilding Iowa State team here. And
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: this is a rivalry where it seems like every game
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: is a three-point spread. It seems like the home team
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: is always favored by three. It seems like every single
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: game is close between these two teams. Yet this year,
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: Iowa's a 14-point favorite because Iowa's just the better team
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: right now, the better program, more continuity here. And Iowa
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: State's like a rebuilding team right now. So what do
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: we do with that info here? I mean, it's a
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: low total here. So I don't necessarily love the fact
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: that it's a low total, 40 and a half here,
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: laying double digits with Iowa, laying 14 with a low
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: total like that. I tend to like the underdog in
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: a game like that, you know what I mean? Especially
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: when this game is always close, pretty much. It's always
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: like a heated rivalry game. So that would have, all
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: those things would have you looking towards Iowa State. The
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: problem is, people might look at this and think that,
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean? And think, oh, this is
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: huge for an Iowa team. It doesn't really score that well,
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: and this is always a big rivalry game. It's always close.
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: I think everybody kind of knows that this game is
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: always like a three-point game. Now all of a sudden
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: it's 14-14. And so I think the public is not
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: really going to want to lay points like that. So
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: I think the oddsmakers are telling you something. If this
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: is usually a close rivalry with a three-point spread, and
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: now for whatever reason, well, I told you the reasons.
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 2: It's because Iowa State's completely rebuilding this year. They're a
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: down program this year. Now all of a sudden the
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: number's 14, and the money seems to be laying it
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: with Iowa. 52% of tickets on Iowa State, 86% of
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: the cash on Iowa. So the money is saying to
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: lay it with Iowa. But the money's also coming in
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: on the under, and I just don't want to do it, man.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: Iowa's not really a team I want to lay points with,
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: with the way that they play offense. They kind of
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: run the ball a lot. They play defense, you know, whatever.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: They kind of play smash-mouth football, which I like as
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: a team. I like it when they're, you know, an
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: underdog or a very small favorite. Not as a double-digit favorite, though,
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: in a rivalry game. So I'm not going to do it,
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: but Yeah, I mean, something's telling me, like, the oddsmakers
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: are kind of telling you something by all of a
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: sudden having this usually close matchup be a double-digit favorite
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: all of a sudden here. So do it with all
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: that info what you want, but, you know, again, I
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: also don't like laying points in a, like that, laying
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: double digits with a very, very small total there, so. Whatever.
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: Georgia Southern at Clemson on ACC Network. You got to
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: think Clemson is embarrassed after that game against LSU. You
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: got to think they're going to show up here, even
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 2: though they do have their ACC opener next against UNC. Clemson,
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: so embarrassing in their first game. You got to think
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: that they're going to just want to show up and
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: at least do something here. Georgia Southern just played Charleston Southern.
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: They easily won that game against an FCS team, whatever.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: Georgia Southern will get up for this game against Clemson
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: because it will be a big game for them. I
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: don't know. I think I would probably lay the points
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: with Clemson in this one, though, if I was going
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: to do it. Nobody's going to want to do that.
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: But they did drop from 21.5 to 19.5. And the
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: money's coming in on Georgia Southern. 67% of tickets on Clemson,
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: 59% of the cash on Georgia Southern. So the money's
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: coming in on Georgia Southern there. I think I might
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: slightly disagree on that one just because everybody's making fun
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: of Clemson with how awful they looked in that first game.
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: But they're more battle-tested. I mean, I don't know. They
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: might be embarrassed enough that they'll get something going, but
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: there's something wrong with that Clemson program right now. And
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: I told you what it is. It's Sweeney not wanting
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 2: to do the transfers. He's refusing to do it. And
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: every other team around them is just going to capitalize
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: on it while they don't. So that's what it is.
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: Navy at FAU is 7.30 p.m. ESPNU. FAU got smashed
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 2: by Florida on their first game. I thought Florida would
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: have some growing pains, man. Quarterback turnover there, new coach there.
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: FAU was an in-state little brother there. FAU looked like
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: they were hanging around for a little while there, but nope,
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: Florida smashed them. So I'm kind of surprised by that.
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: But now this is FAU's home opener. I think they'll
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: get up for it. It's a game against Navy. I
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: know I said they have their big rivalry next against FIU,
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: but I don't think FAU is going to overlook Navy.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: Navy got a win against Towson, who's an FCS team.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's not going to tell us much there
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: about what Navy is this year. And I think people
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: kind of remember Navy being really good over the last
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: couple of years. I think Navy might take a little
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: bit of a step back this year, though. Now, the
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: other thing you got to be aware of is, is FAU...
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: How familiar are they with facing the triple option? Well,
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: I think they're familiar enough because they face Army, Navy,
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: and Rice all in this American conference. So I think
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: they're familiar enough with facing it that it's not really
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: going to throw them off here. So yeah, I like
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: FAU in this one, plus the points. Navy looks like
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: they're public. 82% of tickets, 70% of the cash on them.
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: They drop from 5.5 to 4, 4.5 here. So the
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: money seems to agree with that. Yeah, that's what I
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: would do. I would take... The points with FAU there,
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: although it is a high total in that one. All right.
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: Next game. This is my last play. It's on ESPN2
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: if you want to watch this one. Charlotte and Ole Miss.
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: You want a real ugly one? Yeah. Yeah, I'm doing
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: it in this one, man. This might be the biggest
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: underdog I've ever taken. We're going to take Charlotte plus
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: 47 and a half in this game. It looks like
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: it's 44 and a half at some spots. I saw
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: this line all over the place. 44 and a half,
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: 45 and a half, 46 and a half. I found
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: a 47 and a half at one of the books.
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: But when you get up to numbers this high, I mean,
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: the key numbers aren't really... There's not much to it anymore,
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: so anything between 44.5, 47.5, I don't think it matters
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: that much. I think you could still do it. The
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: number doesn't mean as much at that point, but this
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: is going to be a fade of the spot for
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: Ole Miss here, man. They're coming up that big win
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: over Louisville, and while, yeah, Ole Miss, I guess, got
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a scare, it's not like they
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: were a huge favorite in that game. They were like
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: a six-point favorite in that game or whatever. Six and
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: a half. It was a big game. It was the
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: only ranked versus ranked matchup last week. It was the
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: big game. And Ole Miss is on short rest here
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: because they played on Sunday, whereas Charlotte played on Saturday.
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: So Charlotte has an extra day of rest here, I'm
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: pretty sure. So that's another slight advantage here. This will
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: be Ole Miss' home opener, but how much are they
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: really going to get up for a game against Charlotte?
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? That was a big game,
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: TV game against Louisville. So I think it's a little
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: bit of a letdown spot for Ole Miss, but it's
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: more than that. It's a sandwich spot because they're playing
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: LSU next, man. That's a big game for them. So
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: we're fading both of these two teams. So we're taking
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: advantage of the Michigan-Western Michigan game with two plays, and
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: we're taking advantage of this upcoming Ole Miss-LSU game for
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: the other two games. That's how I'm doing it here
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: in this one, man. But there's more to it than
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: just this, too. So, yes, it is a sandwich spot. And, yes, Charlotte,
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure they have the extra rest here. Yeah,
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: they do. They play it on the 5th, so, yes, correct.
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 2: They play it on Saturday. Charlotte lost their first game
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: as 20.5-point favorites. They lost to the Citadel, the Shitadel.
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: So you know I'm going to play a team off
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: of that. And Charlotte should have won that game, man.
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: They outgained Citadel 538 to 400. They dominated the yardage.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: They won basically all the stats here. It's just they
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: had two turnovers. They were winning pretty much the whole game.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: They were only losing at the beginning of the game.
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: And then they did fall behind really late in the game.
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: They had to tie it to send it into OT. Yes,
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: it went triple overtime. And yes, I don't really love
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: playing on teams that went into multiple overtime periods because
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: it can tire you out a little bit. So I
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: don't love jumping on a team like that in the
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: next game. But in this case, you're talking about a
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: Charlotte team that was the three touchdown favorite in that
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 2: game and they lost. and they should have won based
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: on the statistics. It was a misleading final. Charlotte was
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: better than it looked in that game, and it was
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: just an embarrassing game to lose to the Citadel as
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: a big favorite like that. Maybe they started looking ahead
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: to this game. I don't know, but I like both
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 2: sides of this as far as this handicap goes. Charlotte
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: should be in a total focus spot here now. Ole
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 2: Miss looks like they're in an unfocused spot to me,
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 2: even though it will be their home opener. It is
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: a TV game at home, but I think Ole Miss
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: at some point is going to call off the dogs here, man.
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: And I'm hoping Lane Kiffin does as well. I don't
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: know if he will with LSU, but I know Lane
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: Kiffin used to be at Ole Miss, and Golding, their
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: new coach, came up under him. But I'm not sure
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: if Golding is as similar to Kiffin as that, if
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: he's really going to want to do that. But I
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: say we do it here, and the money agrees with this.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 2: 78% of tickets on Ole Miss, 55% of the cash
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: on Charlotte. So the money's coming in on Charlotte. This
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: line is all over the place, man. It opened 47.5.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 2: I literally just found a 47.5 before I did the show,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: but it looks like it's mostly 45.5 out there. I
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: would still do it. The total is kind of high, 59.5.
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, it has to be if a team's laying
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: that many points, but... I say we do it, man.
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: It's a shit ton of points, and the money is
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: coming in on the under in that one. So I
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 2: think with most of my plays, the money is coming
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: in on the under. So I believe the three plays
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 2: that I have that have market percentages on them, the
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 2: market is agreeing with all three. It's just we don't
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 2: see the one with the Monmouth one, but the market
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: is agreeing with all three, and the money is coming
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 2: in on the under in all three. So yes, that's
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: what we're doing. We're taking Charlotte plus the points. It's
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: not fun, man, I know, but We're trying to make
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 2: money here. All right, for the rest of these games,
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: let's finish this out. We don't have too many left.
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: Southern Miss at Auburn. Auburn's coming off a pretty big game,
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: and it was an ugly game. They only won 17-16.
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: I think Auburn was the better team in that game.
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: It was a neutral site game against Baylor. Actually, Baylor
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: put up more yardage, actually, now that I see it.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: Because I remember Auburn was winning the game late, and
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: I thought that Auburn was maybe going to cover at
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: that point. But these teams did a lot on offense, dude.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: It's just they turned the ball over. There were five
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: combined turnovers in this game. Auburn has got to clean
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: that up. They keep turning the ball over, man. And
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: if you follow me, that screwed me. Over the last
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: two years, I don't know how many plays I've had
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: on Auburn that lost because of turnovers. It's annoying. And
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 2: this could have been potentially another one, but I wasn't
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: going to be on this game. But It was a
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: big game, but what I am saying is that both
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: teams put up a ton of yardage, so this game
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: should have been a lot higher scoring than it was.
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: So maybe with Baylor and Auburn this week, who's Baylor
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: even playing? Oh, they're playing Prairie View, and I'm not
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: going to cover that game, but whatever. you could potentially
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: look towards overs in both these games here because Auburn
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: and Baylor that low scoring game was very misleading both
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: teams put up a lot more offense than it looks
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: like so the overs are potentially a way to look
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: in their two games this week but yeah Auburn I
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 2: mean They're coming off a big game against Baylor, so
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: possibly they kind of overlook Southern Miss here, and Auburn
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: does start SEC playing next against Florida. So they might
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: look ahead to that. I mean, Florida at least looked
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: good in game one. So, yeah, it's a little bit
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: of a sandwich-y looking spot for Auburn here. Southern Miss
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: is probably going to get up for this game because
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 2: they get to play an SEC team. Southern Miss beat
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 2: Steve McNair's alma mater, Alcorn State, who is an FCS team,
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure. not much to see there, but Southern
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 2: Miss should get up for this game, so that's the
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: way I would lean here, I would lean towards Southern
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: Miss here, but Southern Miss, I believe they are rebuilding,
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: as Charlie Huff left, after he was only there for
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: one year, I believe he was at Marshall, then Southern Miss,
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: then he picked up and left again, and now he's
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 2: at Memphis, I believe, 76% of tickets, 71% of the
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 2: cash on Auburn, so Auburn's public They went up from
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: 29 to 32.5, 33 here. So the line did go up,
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: but the money seems to be fading them now. 76%
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 71% of the cash on Auburn. So the
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: money's kind of agreeing with me on Southern Miss there,
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 2: and that is the way I would lean in that one.
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 2: All right, man. Fox Sports won at 10 p.m. as
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: we get into these late games. Interesting game here between
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: Mountain West. I believe they're in the Mountain West, right?
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 2: North Dakota State, they're a newcomer this year. Yeah, they're
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: in the Mountain West, and they've looked good so far.
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: They crushed Jacksonville State and then beat Fordham, and they
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: outscored their opponents, whatever that is, 71-7. North Dakota State,
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 2: this is their first year as an FBS program. They
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: were FCS, so they were one of the most dominant
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 2: FCS programs in, you know, Carson Wentz went there and whatever. Yeah,
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 2: they've looked good so far, but Air Force is going
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 2: to be their first road game. So this is going
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 2: to be a weird spot for North Dakota State, man,
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: having to go on the road. First road game. They're
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: going into elevation here. Air Force in Colorado in high
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 2: elevation here. Might be something North Dakota State's not totally
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: used to. Not a venue they're used to either because
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: they weren't an FBS team until this year. I think
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: this is a difficult spot for North Dakota State, even
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: though they look good so far. They beat one FCS
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 2: team and they beat Jacksonville State, who's not really that
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: good at home. This is going to be their most
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: difficult game so far. Air Force... beat Duquesne pretty quietly,
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 2: but easily 34 to nothing. This will be their FBS
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: home opener here. And I know there are some professional
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: bettors that are high on Air Force this year, and
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: they actually think Air Force is going to be good.
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: And by the way, North Dakota State, I don't know
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: how used to facing the triple option they are. I
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: don't know which teams in FCS run the triple option,
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: but Air Force runs the triple option. And North Dakota
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 2: State might not be that familiar with that. So that
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 2: might be another edge. for Air Force. There's kind of
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 2: a lot of unfamiliarity going on here, so I don't
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: think I'm talking myself into this, but I like Air
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 2: Force in this one. The line already moved a ton.
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know why this line moved like this. North
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: Dakota State looks like they opened a six. I don't
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: even know if that's accurate, though, because I looked, and
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: I don't think there were any injuries. Like, North Dakota
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 2: State's quarterback, I don't think is injured. He came out
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: of their last game, but I think that was just
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 2: because it was, you know, they were winning the game
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: by a ton against an FCS team, so I think
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: they just took him out at the end of the
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: game and put the backup in. at the end, so
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's hurt. 58% of tickets, 56% of
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: cash on North Dakota State. The line, yeah, it dropped
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: from 6 to 1, 1.5, 2, whatever this is, but
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 2: I would only play Air Force in this one. It's
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 2: a low total, so getting the home dog with a
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: low total is something I kind of like. The money's
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 2: coming in on the under, but really it's just that
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: it's just a weird, kind of unfamiliar spot to North
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 2: Dakota State for a whole host of reasons that I
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: already listed, so I like Air Force in that one.
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: ESPN late game is Arkansas at number 20 Utah again
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: could be a weird kind of high elevation type of
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 2: thing here Arkansas has got to go to high elevation
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 2: here something in Arkansas not really used to Utah crushed
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 2: Idaho in their first game FCS team former FBS Idaho
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: they moved down not too long ago Now Utah's got
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 2: to step up to face Arkansas, but it's an SEC team.
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 2: You know Utah's going to get up for this game
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 2: against an SEC team, and Utah's the better team. I mean,
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: they're ranked 20th. I know rankings don't mean everything. In football,
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: by the way, you do have to... fade the rankings
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 2: a lot of times. Cause when you see a, uh,
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 2: like a spot where the rankings tell you one thing
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: is that's just a bunch of voters that don't know anything.
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: And they're just going on the eye test. When you
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: see a ranking that says one thing, you see the
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 2: odds makers who have actual money involved saying a completely
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 2: different thing. You want to listen to the odds makers.
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? So when there's that odds
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: maker versus rankings disparity, you want to go with the
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 2: odds makers, uh, cause they actually have the money, um,
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: involved with it and they're using actual power ratings to
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: determine who's the better team but yes in this case
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure Utah is the better team now Utah
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 2: they did lose Kyle Whittingham over to Michigan which I
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 2: forgot to specifically mention that with my play on Michigan
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: but I think part of the reason why Michigan looked
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: bad in that first game is because they got the
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 2: new coach there they're trying to get stuff going Bryce
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: Underwood didn't look good the quarterback but he's got to
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: get used to you know being there with Whittingham and
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 2: whatever so I think Michigan will improve week to week
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 2: because Whittingham's a really good coach maybe I did already
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 2: say that but whatever I think you're going to see
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: them improve week to week but for Utah I don't
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 2: think it's a problem that Whittingham is gone from there
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: because they already had chosen his successor and he's a
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 2: guy that was already in their system so Utah is
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 2: just implementing the same system here So I do think
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: Utah is going to be a solid team this year.
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 2: Arkansas beat North Alabama in their first game, but it
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 2: wasn't really an impressive win. As a 40.5 point favorite,
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 2: they only won by 17. Although, yeah, they should have
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: won more easily. They kind of dominated the stat sheet here.
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 2: They had three turnovers that kind of threw the game off, whatever.
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: So Arkansas was better in that game than it looked.
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 2: But Arkansas does have Georgia next. I'm not going to
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 2: say they're going to overlook Utah here, but I don't know, man.
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 2: It is kind of a weird spot for Arkansas. Let
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 2: me see, what's the market saying here on this one?
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 2: Because I don't know, I was kind of leaning Utah here,
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 2: and it does seem like the money is kind of agreeing.
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 2: 80% of tickets, 90% of the cash on Utah. The
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 2: line moved up a little bit to 12.5%. I think
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 2: I would agree with that. I think I would lay
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: it with Utah if I was really going to play
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 2: that one. All right, CBS Sports, we have a battle
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 2: of California, even though one of the teams is a
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 2: MAAC team. Sacramento State is in the MAAC. They moved
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: up to FBS this year. I don't even know what
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 2: to say about it, man. They won against Mississippi Valley
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 2: State last time out. Good for you. The team that's
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: always the laughing stock and the worst team in basketball
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 2: in D1. I don't know if they're much better in football.
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 2: I believe they had one really famous football player go there, right?
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 2: I'm blanking on it. I don't remember who it was.
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: I forget. So maybe their football team is a little
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 2: bit better. But Sacramento State destroyed them. Sacramento State lost
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: their first MAAC game, and that was the win that
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 2: I gave out in Week 0 on Eastern Michigan. I
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: don't think Sacramento State's that good, but they are back
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 2: in California for a second straight game at least. So
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 2: they're going to be in California for the next few
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 2: games here. So at least there's that. And they do
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 2: consider themselves to be a little brother, I would imagine,
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 2: against Fresno. In-state little brothers. So Sacramento State probably going
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 2: to get up for this game a little more. Now Fresno,
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 2: they got embarrassed at USC last time. They lost 39-0.
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 2: Not good, man. But USC's a strong team, man. So
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you could really bash Fresno that
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 2: much for it, but they really got dominated on the
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 2: stat sheet. The game was not close. So it was
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 2: pretty much a legitimate final score there. Fresno, you got
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: to think Fresno is going to try to bounce back
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 2: after that. Now this is their home opener and they
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 2: get to host the game on a TV channel on
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 2: CBS Sports. I don't think Fresno is going to overlook
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 2: this game either. It looks like the money is heavily
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 2: on Sacramento State though. 80% of the tickets on Fresno,
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 2: 94% of the cash on Sac State. The line dropped
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 2: from 18.5 to 17.5. So the money is saying to
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 2: take the points with Sacramento State. It is a really
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 2: low total, some really heavy money on the under. Already
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 2: dropped this thing from 48 to 44.5, even lower than
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: that at some places. So, yeah, it looks like there's
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: some strong movement on the under. And if you like
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 2: the under, you completely missed the boat already because that
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 2: real key number there is 47, and it already went
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 2: through that. But, yeah, I mean, the fact that it's
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: a low total here and the money is coming in
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 2: on the under, that does kind of indicate you should
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: be looking towards the dog in this one. So maybe
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: I do slightly lean towards Sacramento State there as the
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 2: little brother as well, but I don't love the game
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 2: by any means. All right, and then we have Big
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 2: Ten Network. We got Louisiana, formerly Louisiana Lafayette at number
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 2: 14 USC.
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 2: USC crushed Fresno last time out, like I said. They're
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 2: staying at home. I mean, they don't really have anything
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 2: big upcoming. They start Big Ten play next against Rutgers.
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 2: It's a weird travel spot where they have to go
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 2: out east, but other than that, I don't know if
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 2: that really matters too much as far as is that
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 2: really a look ahead. I don't know. Louisiana beat Lamar
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 2: in their first game in FCS team. I got nothing
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 2: on this game, man. It's really just, I think it
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: would be just purely a market read for me on
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 2: this one. In USC, you know you're going to be
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 2: laying too many points with them. You're laying about 30,
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 2: 30 and a half with them, 31 now, I guess.
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 2: And again, dude, this page is doing what it did
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 2: to me last week, too. Like, what the hell? Where
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 2: I had to, like, you know, move it over to
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 2: see the, yeah, I don't know. I don't know why
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 2: it does that. That's weird. To see the tab there again.
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 2: But yeah. Well, no, it did it again. What the fuck? Yeah,
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: USC has 73% of tickets, 90% of the cash. I
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 2: don't know why it's doing that. 73% of the tickets
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 2: and 90% of the cash on USC. So the money's
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 2: actually on USC at 31. I kind of disagree with
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 2: it just because I think you just know you're not
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 2: going to get any value laying the points with USC,
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 2: but it's not a game I want anything to do with, so. whatever,
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 2: I'm just talking about it because it's on a TV channel.
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 2: And then New Mexico State and Hawaii, it's only on
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 2: the Mountain West Plus, whatever, so normally I would kind
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 2: of skip over this, but it's kind of a weird
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 2: scenario where Hawaii, they started out 0-2. They looked pretty
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 2: competitive against Stanford, but their quarterback was really bad against UNLV,
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 2: so I don't know what the deal was with that.
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 2: I thought Hawaii should have been way more competitive in
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 2: that game. Not sure what the deal was with that.
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 2: It was not a good game for Hawaii in that game.
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 2: Not really misleading either. I mean, they got outstatted in
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 2: that game, but they're staying at home for a second
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 2: straight game, and it's going to be a weird travel
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 2: spot for New Mexico State having to go out to Hawaii,
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 2: something that I don't think New Mexico State is used
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 2: to because they're not in the Mountain West, so they
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 2: don't usually have to go to Hawaii. New Mexico State
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 2: just crushed Mercyhurst in their last game, but that's an
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 2: FCS team. And they got New Mexico next. That is
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 2: their big rivalry, although it's after a bye, though. So
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 2: sometimes the bye will, you know, kind of eliminate the
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 2: look-ahead spot a little bit there, but that is still
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 2: a big rivalry game coming up next for New Mexico State,
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 2: so they still might look ahead to that. So I
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 2: think I got to lean Hawaii here. I mean, Hawaii...
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 2: You've got to think they're going to be desperate to
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 2: get a win here at this point. New Mexico State
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 2: has looked a little bit better because they have a win,
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 2: and they actually looked okay against Florida State in the
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 2: first game. Maybe that says more about Florida State still
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 2: not being any good than it says about New Mexico State.
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 2: Weird travel spot for them to have to go out
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 2: into Hawaii, man, which I don't believe they're used to.
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 2: And then with their rival New Mexico on deck, I
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 2: would lean Hawaii in this one. Hawaii tends to be
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 2: significantly better at home, too, because it's always just a
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 2: weird travel spot. Hawaii opened a 10-point favor, but it
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 2: looks like they're 7, 7.5 now, and the money is
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 2: coming in on them. 67% of tickets, 93% of the
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 2: cash on them. So, yeah, if you're going to do it,
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 2: you might be able to find the 7. You might
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 2: have to lay a little bit of juice with it,
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 2: but it might still be better than the 7.5. So
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 2: I would lean Hawaii in that game, and that's going
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 2: to do it, man, unless anybody wants me to go
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 2: over any of the other games. I appreciate it for
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 2: the people that are hanging out, the first-timers and the long-timers.
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 2: We got four plays for tomorrow. My favorite is this one,
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 2: Michigan plus 5.5. Love it. I think it's a huge overreaction.
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 2: Then the rest are all hideous underdogs, but these are
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 2: all situational plays. Monmouth plus 27.5. I know this is ugly, man.
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 2: La Tech plus 35.5. And Charlotte plus 47.5. Yeah, I
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 2: like pain, man. I really do. That's what we're going
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 2: to go with here. Learn to tote on Twitter. Learn
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 2: to tote on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 2: and you'll get notified when I go live. I don't
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 2: know when I'm going to do the week one NFL
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 2: show because I'm going to be at a concert tomorrow night,
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 2: but maybe I'll get home in time and then do it.
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 2: The NFL show is a lot quicker than this because
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 2: it's only 16 games to run through. So we will see,
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 2: and I'm not going to have too many plays in
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 2: week one, treading a little bit lightly, although we're already
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 2: off to a 1-0 start, which I couldn't use in
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 2: my pick five on Splash because for some reason they
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 2: didn't let you use the Wednesday and Thursday games. They
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 2: do for every other week, so I don't know why
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 2: they didn't for this week, but we're 1-0 with that
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 2: 49er win last night. Anyway. Or was it two nights ago?
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: I don't even know. What night was that? I think
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 2: it was last night. Yeah, is it Friday? It's Saturday
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 2: morning now. Anyway, yeah, you'll get notified when I go
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 2: live if you subscribe here. Leave me good comments, whatever.
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 2: But yeah, the NFL Week 1 show will probably be
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 2: a late-night degenerate hour show tomorrow, I suppose. Listen on audio.
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 2: The audio numbers have been going up, man, for some reason. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker,
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 2: check it out. What else? Cover New York is my
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 2: ukulele channel on YouTube. I did update that today with
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 2: the last couple of covers I did, so you can
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 2: check that out. Patreon.com slash LearnToTote if you want to
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 2: support me over there. LoserCast every Tuesday night and the
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 2: New York Giants G-Spot podcast. I talked to Ben, and
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 2: we might not be doing it on Sunday because it's
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 2: his birthday, and he's going to be out, and it's
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 2: the Sunday night game, and the Giants are involved, but
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 2: we still got to figure that out. That's going to
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 2: do it. Thanks, guys.
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 4: Peace. If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 4: Let somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have.
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 3: To lose this round alone. Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 4: Not now Hold on, hold.
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 2: On Let me pull.
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 4: You out That bad luck fights hard But it don't
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 4: get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now.
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 2: You're still here now.