Latest / Foul Territory / Lance Brozdowski: Next Cubs move, Scouting Edward Cabrera & Owen Caissie, Kyle Tucker’s future

Transcript

Lance Brozdowski: Next Cubs move, Scouting Edward Cabrera & Owen Caissie, Kyle Tucker’s future · Foul Territory

0:04
Speaker 1: Lance Brastowski joining us right now on FT player development
0:08
Speaker 1: analyst for Marquee. Excellent YouTube channel you should check out
0:12
Speaker 1: as well sizing up pitching as well as anyone in
0:14
Speaker 1: the game right now. Lance, Great to have you on
0:16
Speaker 1: the show. Thanks for joining us. Of course we give
0:18
Speaker 1: you the quick bat phone call when we see this
0:20
Speaker 1: trade involving Edward Cabrera moving over to the Cubs, and
0:24
Speaker 1: I know you know about the prospect return package too,
0:27
Speaker 1: So first off, I wanted to get your thoughts on
0:29
Speaker 1: the whole thing.
0:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like this trade a bit. It's the Cubs
0:32
Speaker 2: haven't really done anything in a while from an impact standpoint,
0:35
Speaker 2: so it's really nice to inject a bit of liveliness
0:37
Speaker 2: into the local radio here and have Cub fans be
0:39
Speaker 2: excited about adding a guy that is really electric to
0:42
Speaker 2: this team. I'd say that he's a little bit different
0:45
Speaker 2: than a lot of the pitchers the Cubs presently have.
0:47
Speaker 2: If you look in the last couple years, the Cubs
0:48
Speaker 2: have kind of sought these contact neutralizer, not big bat misser.
0:53
Speaker 2: You know, they had a bunch of forcing fastball usage
0:56
Speaker 2: last year relative to the league. I believe they were
0:58
Speaker 2: number one in the sport. Actually they prefer this kind
1:02
Speaker 2: of bat miss limit barrel ability, and they bring Cabrera
1:05
Speaker 2: in here, who is a guy that has insane stuff.
1:08
Speaker 2: His slot fell a little with Miami from twenty four
1:11
Speaker 2: to twenty five. I don't know if it was entirely intentional,
1:13
Speaker 2: but what I do know is intentional was their interest
1:16
Speaker 2: in Miami pushing him to a sinker, which finally allowed
1:19
Speaker 2: him to get in zone enough to pull down his
1:20
Speaker 2: walk rate below ten percent. And I think for the
1:22
Speaker 2: most part, we've lifted the tag of he'll never be
1:24
Speaker 2: able to throw strikes, which was persistent with his profile
1:27
Speaker 2: from like the second he got into the sport where
1:30
Speaker 2: he was running walk rates that were pretty much unsustainable.
1:32
Speaker 2: So he's a really fun arm I mean, the curveball sick.
1:35
Speaker 2: They adjusted a slider grip. I think there's room if
1:37
Speaker 2: the Cubs want to go towards like a sweeper and
1:39
Speaker 2: maybe even a cutter like this dude can be a
1:41
Speaker 2: frontline starter, and I think he's incredibly exciting for the
1:43
Speaker 2: Cubs to add to the rotation.
1:45
Speaker 3: All Right, before we get to the prospect pack is
1:48
Speaker 3: before we get to like your evaluation of too much
1:51
Speaker 3: you said electric, Okay, he's got electric stuff. Is it
1:54
Speaker 3: electric compared to the Cubs rotation, which you admittedly just
1:59
Speaker 3: said they're more you know, they're not quite on that.
2:02
Speaker 3: So does he become the smartest kid in dumb school
2:05
Speaker 3: because everyone else is just kind of going out there
2:09
Speaker 3: and doing their thing. Or is it something that they're
2:12
Speaker 3: getting a guy when you say electric and exciting and fun,
2:17
Speaker 3: they're getting a guy that has thrown over one hundred
2:19
Speaker 3: innings one time. Like it just feels like because I'm
2:23
Speaker 3: not even gonna shift to who they gave up to
2:25
Speaker 3: get him, but like, is this a sustainable thing? Because
2:30
Speaker 3: if that dropped arm angle is because he got tired
2:34
Speaker 3: from one hundred and thirty four innings? Or is it
2:37
Speaker 3: because like that's actually what's enabling him to get on
2:41
Speaker 3: top of his sinker and make it work. Like, there's
2:44
Speaker 3: so many questions that I have, and I love how
2:46
Speaker 3: you break down the pitching development stuff.
2:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is gonna be a long response because you
2:50
Speaker 2: layer it in a lot there. Yeah, I'd say it's
2:53
Speaker 2: it's electric relative to all pitchers in baseball. We could
2:56
Speaker 2: prove this just through looking at his raw velocity, also
2:59
Speaker 2: his ability to purely in the ball. There's breaking ball
3:01
Speaker 2: shapes he can create at the velocity he throws. So
3:04
Speaker 2: it's he's the smartest kid. This is the smartest kid
3:07
Speaker 2: at the dumb school, I guess. But he's also like
3:09
Speaker 2: the smartest kid when you then bring him to Stanford,
3:11
Speaker 2: you know he's not the best stuff in baseball. He's
3:14
Speaker 2: really good, and I think that it's just more I
3:16
Speaker 2: wouldn't say a shock, but it's just different. I think
3:18
Speaker 2: for Cubs fans to look at an arm that can
3:20
Speaker 2: strike out thirty percent of the guys he faces and go, yeah, like,
3:23
Speaker 2: this dude has that level of upside. Now you layered
3:26
Speaker 2: in something fascinating here. So I'd poked around a lot
3:29
Speaker 2: on this trade, and the big thing that jumps out
3:30
Speaker 2: to me is how little talk there's been that Cabrera
3:35
Speaker 2: sprained his UCL at the end of last season, and
3:38
Speaker 2: I understand he came back at the end of September.
3:40
Speaker 2: I believe wasn't through two times. But this is something
3:43
Speaker 2: that from my understanding and talking to people in the
3:45
Speaker 2: league and talking to teams who communicated with the Marlins
3:48
Speaker 2: about Cabrera, this was a hang up for other teams.
3:51
Speaker 2: I don't I think if you gave these medicals to
3:53
Speaker 2: thirty teams in baseball. I don't entirely know how many
3:57
Speaker 2: of them would have approved them. The Cubs approved them,
3:58
Speaker 2: And I think the Cubs are very sharp medical side,
4:00
Speaker 2: so I'm not saying they're incompetent in any respect, but
4:03
Speaker 2: there's a level of risk here they are accepting.
4:05
Speaker 4: Right.
4:06
Speaker 2: UCL sprains are tears. A sprain is a tear of
4:08
Speaker 2: a muscle, so it's not incorrect to say he sprained
4:11
Speaker 2: his UCL last season. Does that impact your innings projection
4:15
Speaker 2: going forward for him? I think it has to do
4:17
Speaker 2: to some extent, So there's risk. I think on both
4:19
Speaker 2: sides of this deal. The Cubs obviously got comfortable with
4:22
Speaker 2: the level of risk they were accepting with the guy
4:23
Speaker 2: like Elricrera, perhaps because this stuff is so good. They
4:27
Speaker 2: have multiple years of control with him, so this isn't
4:29
Speaker 2: like a ticking time bomb. Perhaps, But yeah, I mean
4:32
Speaker 2: I talked to people in the league who are like
4:33
Speaker 2: kind of surprised that he cleared medicals, and I wouldn't
4:36
Speaker 2: say I'm like concerned in that respect, but it did
4:39
Speaker 2: definitely like peaked my ears when I heard that.
4:42
Speaker 5: Let me ask you this, where do you see this
4:44
Speaker 5: is a quicker question than I'll get to another one.
4:46
Speaker 5: Where do you see him fitting in the starting rotation?
4:48
Speaker 5: What number slot do you see him? You know, one
4:51
Speaker 5: or two? Like, where do you see him at right
4:52
Speaker 5: now for this team?
4:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he's right in that too area. I
4:56
Speaker 2: would say the interesting thing to see will be how
4:58
Speaker 2: they sequence him early in the I don't believe he's
5:01
Speaker 2: a guy with too much cold weather experience. The Cubs
5:03
Speaker 2: have a lot of home games in April, and it's
5:05
Speaker 2: cold in April and Chicago, So I'm I'm wondering whether
5:09
Speaker 2: they almost try to line him up to pitch road
5:10
Speaker 2: games and maybe, you know, maybe this is nothing. Maybe
5:13
Speaker 2: he loves pitching to the cold. I don't entitally know.
5:14
Speaker 2: I've never talked to him. I don't know, but I'm
5:16
Speaker 2: wondering whether they kind of sequence him in a way
5:19
Speaker 2: that doesn't push him as the ace, so to speak.
5:21
Speaker 2: But I think he's slocks in as like the number
5:23
Speaker 2: two guy. Matt Boyd is the innings eater. He just
5:25
Speaker 2: came off one of the best seasons of his career.
5:27
Speaker 2: Feels like he would get perhaps the opening day start,
5:29
Speaker 2: especially with Steele coming back mid season.
5:32
Speaker 5: That that was perfect answer you answer another one of
5:35
Speaker 5: my questions.
5:35
Speaker 4: But now for the Cubs too as well.
5:37
Speaker 5: Do you see any other particular moves coming through or
5:40
Speaker 5: is this the last one you think? I mean, Kyle
5:42
Speaker 5: Tucker is not there anymore. Do you see anything else
5:44
Speaker 5: coming into frushing for the Cubs this offseason?
5:48
Speaker 2: I mean, which side are you asking? Are you asking
5:50
Speaker 2: the brain here or the heart? You know what I mean?
5:53
Speaker 2: The heart lily like, yeah, breg Jimmy Bregman Man like
5:57
Speaker 2: they've been linked to him. I can confirm that. I mean,
5:59
Speaker 2: you don't need me to confirm Rosenthal has it than others,
6:01
Speaker 2: but they're definitely involved in that market. I think he's
6:03
Speaker 2: the individual player that they'd be most comfortable getting uncomfortable with.
6:08
Speaker 2: My read is that they don't want to get totally
6:10
Speaker 2: uncomfortable with, like the Baschets of the world. The Cody
6:12
Speaker 2: Bellinger union has already been rumored. My concern is more
6:16
Speaker 2: if you get into bidding wars, say on Bregman with
6:18
Speaker 2: the Red Sox or on Bellinger with the Mets, or
6:21
Speaker 2: the Cubs actually willing to go to the cost intervals
6:23
Speaker 2: that will be necessary if the Red Sox are pooning
6:25
Speaker 2: up money or Steve Cohen is pooning up money to
6:28
Speaker 2: challenge them on a godic Bellinger. So's that's where the
6:31
Speaker 2: brain comes in and goes, how aggressive will they actually be?
6:34
Speaker 2: You know, like, do you want? Says Azuki playing one
6:36
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty games in right field, which is something
6:38
Speaker 2: they tried to move off a couple seasons ago. They
6:41
Speaker 2: didn't like him out there in right field. Now he
6:42
Speaker 2: played great. I thought he looked really good up there
6:44
Speaker 2: last year in right field. So perhaps some optimism in
6:46
Speaker 2: that respect, But there's definitely some other move in here
6:49
Speaker 2: that I think makes this team a lot better. Cabrera
6:52
Speaker 2: makes sense in a sequence of moves to me alone,
6:54
Speaker 2: if this is kind of the last thing they do,
6:56
Speaker 2: I won't say it's a curious move, but it doesn't
6:58
Speaker 2: make the team like. It doesn't give me a ton
7:01
Speaker 2: of confidence that they will absolutely dominate the Brewers and
7:03
Speaker 2: outwin them by like six games. You know you had bregnant. Yeah, totally.
7:07
Speaker 2: We're talking like, I'm pretty confidence team's gonna win the division.
7:10
Speaker 3: Hi, Lance, I've seen you and Marquee. I'm just gonna
7:12
Speaker 3: make a comment. Let me hear the Cubs are a
7:15
Speaker 3: big mark. Can you say the Cubs are a big market.
7:18
Speaker 3: Just so that people that watch Marquee know the Cubs
7:20
Speaker 3: are a big market.
7:22
Speaker 2: They are. They're a huge market. It's one of the biggest,
7:24
Speaker 2: probably four or five in baseball.
7:26
Speaker 3: Great, perfect, thank you for saying that. Let's get back
7:29
Speaker 3: to the trade. They picked up this Edwar Cabrera. There's
7:32
Speaker 3: a lot of uncertainty with it. There's a lot of
7:34
Speaker 3: uncertainty with prospects. Owen Casey was talked about other offseasons
7:40
Speaker 3: like we cannot nobody's touching Oen Casey. Well, the Marlins
7:45
Speaker 3: got it. The Marlins got them. Is it a case
7:48
Speaker 3: that it's what had to get the job done? Is
7:52
Speaker 3: it a case of we saw what he did in
7:54
Speaker 3: the big leagues and now we're like, okay, we're fine
7:57
Speaker 3: with Saya Suzuki doing what he does in the feld,
8:00
Speaker 3: Like where does that go? And what are they giving
8:03
Speaker 3: up in this deal?
8:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a big fan of own Casey. He's a
8:07
Speaker 2: guy that we actually went down to Myrtle Beach and
8:09
Speaker 2: talked to first when he came into the organization from
8:11
Speaker 2: the U Darvish trade. I think he's a really cerebral dude.
8:13
Speaker 2: He really doesn't understanding what his body does well from
8:16
Speaker 2: a batted ball standpoint, and he absolutely crushes the baseball
8:19
Speaker 2: from an eggs velocity standpoint, And I think that's really
8:22
Speaker 2: what the Marlins are getting. He's a guy that I'm
8:24
Speaker 2: curious to see how much they let him face left
8:26
Speaker 2: handed pitching. He didn't do that too much in the minors,
8:28
Speaker 2: and I imagine if you kept him on the Cubs
8:30
Speaker 2: for this coming season, he would be get the Michael
8:32
Speaker 2: Bush treatment where he really wouldn't face a lot of
8:34
Speaker 2: lefties at all. But I thought he made a lot
8:37
Speaker 2: of sense from like a you're not getting Kyle Tucker back,
8:40
Speaker 2: so you know, maybe you have Kyle Tucker in the
8:43
Speaker 2: aggregate in right field, you know, with own Casey at
8:46
Speaker 2: another platoon right handed bat to face left handed pitching.
8:49
Speaker 2: Partially because Casey has the thump, he does not have
8:51
Speaker 2: the level of like low k rate discipline that a
8:54
Speaker 2: guy like Tucker does. But I like Casey a lot.
8:56
Speaker 2: I think he would be an impact bat for the
8:58
Speaker 2: Marlins in some capacity. Whether that's in a year or two,
9:00
Speaker 2: you know, we'll see, But I agree, like this was
9:03
Speaker 2: a name that I had heard, like we heard last
9:06
Speaker 2: offseason in rumors that this was a guy that the
9:08
Speaker 2: Marlins were interested in, and I think that's been mostly
9:10
Speaker 2: confirmed by variety of Cub be writers and Marlin beat
9:13
Speaker 2: writers in the last twenty four hours. I'm most curious
9:16
Speaker 2: on like, who changed with this trade. From a value perspective,
9:20
Speaker 2: you go back to the last deadline, Cubs were in
9:22
Speaker 2: conversation with the Marlins about Edward Cabrera and it seems
9:27
Speaker 2: like perhaps the piece that the Cubs weren't willing to
9:30
Speaker 2: give up in a lot of negotiations with Jackson Wiggins.
9:32
Speaker 2: This is one of their only pitching prospects. Really, they're
9:35
Speaker 2: very depleted in that respect, but he was the guy
9:37
Speaker 2: that I think they were very hesitant to give up.
9:39
Speaker 2: But the Marlins, I know, very much wanted. So I
9:41
Speaker 2: wonder whether the package of the deadline centered more around
9:44
Speaker 2: Wiggins and now it's flipped to Casey despite the fact
9:46
Speaker 2: I've heard that Casey was kind of the name the
9:48
Speaker 2: whole time. But my speculation is more everyone was trying
9:50
Speaker 2: to get Wiggins they couldn't. Now you have, you know,
9:53
Speaker 2: this injury stuff lurking around Cabrera that pushed some other
9:56
Speaker 2: teams often from my understanding, and the Cubs give up Casey,
9:59
Speaker 2: So perhaps the cost was higher at the deadline, and
10:02
Speaker 2: the Cubs maybe perhaps think they got a deal in
10:04
Speaker 2: disrespect given up Casey for him.
10:06
Speaker 3: You mentioned Cubs pitching development. We're going to get to
10:08
Speaker 3: some pitching development just to cross the league because I
10:11
Speaker 3: think your stuff is your stuff is electric on pitching.
10:15
Speaker 3: But anyway, Kyle Tucker, you got to watch him every
10:19
Speaker 3: single day in his one year, in his one year
10:22
Speaker 3: with the Cubs, and now he's still lingering out on
10:26
Speaker 3: a free agency market. What did you see and as
10:29
Speaker 3: going forward, what does that look like for other teams
10:32
Speaker 3: that are going to pick somebody up that in Kyle
10:34
Speaker 3: Tucker eight year contract, probably over two hundred million dollars.
10:39
Speaker 3: What did you see day in and day out from him?
10:42
Speaker 2: He's electric bat. I think I think he does a
10:44
Speaker 2: couple of things that you guys, obviously from the hitting standpoint,
10:46
Speaker 2: can point out better than me. But he has a
10:48
Speaker 2: really interesting if you look at like the side angle
10:50
Speaker 2: of his swing, how he like lays back his hands
10:52
Speaker 2: and how flat his back gets right like into his
10:54
Speaker 2: load and stuff allows him to cash balls pretty deep
10:58
Speaker 2: and still lift them. So if you really want to
11:00
Speaker 2: get nerdy, like balls close to his body and close
11:02
Speaker 2: to the back of the plate. He can lift and
11:04
Speaker 2: also hit hard. So I guess this is a weird
11:07
Speaker 2: way to say, like you can he can almost like
11:09
Speaker 2: delay his reaction time a lot. And you could maybe
11:12
Speaker 2: say a lot of guys in baseball do this, But
11:13
Speaker 2: if you look at the list of guys who actually
11:15
Speaker 2: lift those balls deep, it's like Carry Carpenter and Showeyo Tani,
11:18
Speaker 2: Paul Goldschmail. It's all very very good hitters. So no
11:21
Speaker 2: one needs me to tell you that you can validate
11:23
Speaker 2: the fact he's an amazing hitter. Now, is he a
11:25
Speaker 2: quiet dude?
11:26
Speaker 4: You know? Yeah?
11:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like I had a couple conversations with him. I
11:28
Speaker 2: enjoyed my coma was with him. I thought he was
11:30
Speaker 2: super insightful and stuff. But you know, he's he's not
11:33
Speaker 2: the clubhouse leader from like an Ian Happer Dansby sponsor
11:35
Speaker 2: Nicole Warner standpoint, who like those guys have energy and
11:38
Speaker 2: they lead the clubhouse. He's a guy that was the
11:41
Speaker 2: best player on this team from an offensive standpoint last season,
11:44
Speaker 2: and yet I wouldn't say he like carries the torchedge
11:47
Speaker 2: though in the clubhouse he is the alpha. You know
11:49
Speaker 2: what I mean, and I'm I'm not knocking him for that,
11:52
Speaker 2: Like he's not gonna change his personality, you know, like
11:55
Speaker 2: he is who he is. So I think another team
11:57
Speaker 2: would be getting a guy who's going to be a
11:59
Speaker 2: very good hitter. As to whether he fits, as you
12:03
Speaker 2: guys were talking about in New York before I popped
12:05
Speaker 2: on here, it's a great question. Chicago is in fact
12:08
Speaker 2: very different from a media standpoint than New York. I
12:09
Speaker 2: grew up on the East Coast. That very much can
12:11
Speaker 2: attest to that. But yeah, I personally think he fits
12:15
Speaker 2: with the Dodgers the most because he will not get
12:17
Speaker 2: a lot of media requests on that team, right, Like
12:19
Speaker 2: people go into that clubhouse and you want to talk
12:21
Speaker 2: to Atani and Freeman and Vets and everybody else, probably
12:24
Speaker 2: before you go to Kyle Tucker, and maybe that helps
12:26
Speaker 2: him kind of settle in. But yeah, I don't think
12:28
Speaker 2: he's gonna be like the alpha ra ra guy in
12:31
Speaker 2: the clubhouse. But I don't know how much you like
12:33
Speaker 2: knocked the profile and how much you're giving him from
12:35
Speaker 2: a monetary standpoint given that, because he's a great hitter,
12:38
Speaker 2: and I don't think there's any stats that could kind
12:41
Speaker 2: of back up. He's not a great hitter. The down
12:42
Speaker 2: months he had last season we're all injury based, and
12:45
Speaker 2: he played through him partially because yeah, he was going
12:47
Speaker 2: into a contracts year. Of course I would play through
12:49
Speaker 2: things too. I want I want my agent, a Casey
12:52
Speaker 2: close to Excel, to head to the market and go
12:54
Speaker 2: like this guy played one hundred and fifty plus games, Like,
12:56
Speaker 2: look at you want him on your team. You don't
12:58
Speaker 2: want him to be like, oh, he sat out two months.
13:00
Speaker 2: You know he only played one hundred and then people
13:01
Speaker 2: are like, well, two seasons in a row. He didn't
13:02
Speaker 2: play a lot of games. So you know, we see
13:04
Speaker 2: in contract years guys play through small injuries, and it's
13:07
Speaker 2: because the player incentive matters, and I totally understand that.
13:10
Speaker 5: Let me ask you this, do you think guy like
13:12
Speaker 5: Kyle Tucker would want to go to New York? And like,
13:15
Speaker 5: do you think he would want to be that star
13:18
Speaker 5: all of a sudden change in venues from Chicago to
13:20
Speaker 5: New York?
13:20
Speaker 4: Do you think you would want to go there? Don't.
13:23
Speaker 2: I don't know him well enough to say yes or no.
13:25
Speaker 2: My gut says no. I just think it makes more
13:28
Speaker 2: sense for him to go to a team where he's
13:30
Speaker 2: not getting hounded by the New York media when he's
13:32
Speaker 2: playing through like a broken hand or something like that
13:35
Speaker 2: or whatnot. So I mean, that's just my pure gut.
13:37
Speaker 2: I don't know him well enough to appine i'd say
13:39
Speaker 2: on that specific question, but I think wherever he goes,
13:42
Speaker 2: he's going to hit, and I really think that's what
13:43
Speaker 2: everybody's paying for.
13:45
Speaker 4: And one more question with the Mets along that line.
13:47
Speaker 5: Do you think the Mets officials saying they're an eighty
13:49
Speaker 5: seven win team right now?
13:51
Speaker 4: Do you see that happening or No.
13:54
Speaker 2: I haven't looked too much at pure win total projections.
13:57
Speaker 2: I do think, I will say, like as a concept,
13:59
Speaker 2: we get a bit caught up with win total projections,
14:01
Speaker 2: partially because baseball is like very random in a lot
14:04
Speaker 2: of respects. So if you're projecting a team to win
14:06
Speaker 2: like eighty seven games, you could usually add like a
14:08
Speaker 2: six win variants on that. So if that team wins
14:10
Speaker 2: eighty one or ninety three, which I imagine you guys,
14:13
Speaker 2: is like a massive difference, right Like if you're if
14:16
Speaker 2: you're leaving the clubhouse on the last day of the
14:18
Speaker 2: season with an eighty one win team versus ninety three
14:20
Speaker 2: win team, like you're a very different tenor I imagine
14:23
Speaker 2: among the team. But because of how things are sequenced,
14:26
Speaker 2: runs are scored, like, variance is huge, you know, So
14:30
Speaker 2: I could see them being an eighty seven ish eighty
14:32
Speaker 2: eight win team. Yeah, I mean I think they're in
14:34
Speaker 2: that window. Maybe it's more eighty five to six. And again,
14:37
Speaker 2: if they win eighty or they win ninety two, that's
14:39
Speaker 2: within like the range of probables such that you're not going,
14:41
Speaker 2: oh my god, this team insanely overperformed. So I think
14:45
Speaker 2: win totals are tough. I often like giving ranges, but
14:47
Speaker 2: I know it just throws out more numbers, and sometimes
14:49
Speaker 2: people are like a little hesitant to be like, why
14:51
Speaker 2: are you giving me three win totals? I want one?
14:53
Speaker 2: So I get it from like a marketing standpoint. I
14:54
Speaker 2: just say, like projections are a range of outcomes a
14:58
Speaker 2: lot of the time, and I think we get caught
14:59
Speaker 2: up in singular n is a lot.
15:01
Speaker 3: All right, I want you to get into some pitching
15:03
Speaker 3: development for us here. I want you because you feel
15:06
Speaker 3: like the Mets are doing a really good job. I
15:08
Speaker 3: think you mentioned the Naps and a couple of other
15:13
Speaker 3: teams are doing a really good What are you looking at?
15:15
Speaker 3: And then what are some of the teams also that
15:18
Speaker 3: are doing a great job of the pitching development in
15:20
Speaker 3: the big leagues right now?
15:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd say one of the main things I look at,
15:24
Speaker 2: which isn't totally public info, which is why I think
15:26
Speaker 2: I've I've created a bit of a niche in this
15:28
Speaker 2: is is minor like aggregated minor league data major league
15:31
Speaker 2: totally Like, that's what matters, That's what you're getting paid for,
15:34
Speaker 2: That's what Cohen wants at the end of the day,
15:36
Speaker 2: you know, like that matters. But I think because the
15:38
Speaker 2: samples are often smaller and because you have a lot
15:40
Speaker 2: more monetary involvement from like we're going to pay this guy,
15:43
Speaker 2: and perhaps that suggests what a team values. I like
15:46
Speaker 2: looking at aggregated minor league do is so you can
15:48
Speaker 2: be able to triple a combine everything together and let
15:50
Speaker 2: me look at what a team is doing from like
15:52
Speaker 2: a usage standpoint, velocity standpoint, results standpoint A lot of
15:55
Speaker 2: that time A lot of the time, that to me
15:57
Speaker 2: indicates what their models in internally are bias towards. So
16:01
Speaker 2: look at a team like the Mariners, for example, they
16:03
Speaker 2: have one of the lowest release points in the minor leagues.
16:05
Speaker 2: They really prefer this like low sinker slider slot. You
16:08
Speaker 2: look at a team on the inverse side of that,
16:10
Speaker 2: for example, like the Dodgers and the Rais are in
16:12
Speaker 2: the same sphere where they prefer the more hoppy fastball,
16:15
Speaker 2: get in zona out throw really hard, not really large mixes,
16:19
Speaker 2: you know, really focus on four seam slider early. The Mets,
16:22
Speaker 2: I think, have struck a really interesting balance here where
16:25
Speaker 2: if you compare their results from twenty twenty three to now,
16:28
Speaker 2: they've shot up considerably and this is a direct byproduct.
16:32
Speaker 2: I think of the individuals they brought in, particularly Eric
16:34
Speaker 2: Jaegers and a bunch of other people they made. John
16:36
Speaker 2: de Verwhen from Arizona is a guy they brought in
16:38
Speaker 2: as a coordinator. He's incredibly sharp. They brought in Justin
16:41
Speaker 2: Willard from the Red Sox, like they know what they're
16:44
Speaker 2: doing on the personnel side, and they've combined that with
16:46
Speaker 2: a couple of years now of really good development in
16:48
Speaker 2: the minors. They have a ton of arms. We saw
16:50
Speaker 2: them trade from the depth of their arms and a
16:52
Speaker 2: couple of these moves they've made, particularly Ryan helsyone jumps
16:55
Speaker 2: out to me, and they do a great job. And
16:57
Speaker 2: I think they're really good and understanding like sem effects
17:00
Speaker 2: and held the ball interacts with the air and getting
17:03
Speaker 2: guys to shapes that will make them successful. And as
17:05
Speaker 2: a result of that, you're running into like the Noel McClain's,
17:07
Speaker 2: the Brandon Sprouts of the world. These guys who have
17:09
Speaker 2: really deep mixes, throw hard, really good breaking ball shapes,
17:12
Speaker 2: have the weapons to get lefties and righties out overall.
17:16
Speaker 2: And here's what I'm talking about, Like you go back
17:17
Speaker 2: to twenty twenty three, this team was basically like dead average.
17:19
Speaker 2: That was right around the time that Jaegers came in,
17:21
Speaker 2: and you jumped to twenty twenty five now, and this
17:23
Speaker 2: team from an underlying standward. So I'm looking at forcing
17:26
Speaker 2: velo K minus walking zone with. I'm not really looking
17:28
Speaker 2: at results because a lot of the time minor league
17:30
Speaker 2: parks will influence results pretty heavily such that you're not
17:32
Speaker 2: really able to get the best indication of like the
17:35
Speaker 2: skills occurring with the pitchers. But Kymniswaks, I think a
17:38
Speaker 2: great one. They're prizing Velo and they're getting a lot
17:40
Speaker 2: of zone with so I really like what they're doing.
17:43
Speaker 2: I to me right now, they are the number one
17:45
Speaker 2: team from a pitching development standpoint, and I don't know
17:47
Speaker 2: how many people agree with me. I think I've heard
17:48
Speaker 2: some of the industry nod their head and say, yeah,
17:50
Speaker 2: they have to at least be like top three or five.
17:52
Speaker 2: But I do think a team like the Dodgers has
17:54
Speaker 2: fallen off a bit. They had the highest walk rate
17:56
Speaker 2: in the minor leagues last year, and I think if
17:59
Speaker 2: you talk to people there, they'll attribute it to injury.
18:01
Speaker 6: You know.
18:02
Speaker 2: Their angle is like I've heard, like the golf metaphor
18:04
Speaker 2: of like just hit it really far and then we'll
18:06
Speaker 2: eventually get it on the runway for you, which I understand,
18:09
Speaker 2: like they're taking big risks. I think they have a
18:11
Speaker 2: very different approach to pitching development because they could go
18:14
Speaker 2: out and pay a start of thirty million million dollars.
18:15
Speaker 2: They don't need to develop like the fifth starter. There's
18:18
Speaker 2: no need for that basically in the organization based on
18:20
Speaker 2: the amount of money that they're able to spend. So
18:22
Speaker 2: they're the ones that didn't shop out to me and
18:23
Speaker 2: I know I'm going along here, But there's also like
18:26
Speaker 2: on this concept of personnel, a lot of teams. I
18:29
Speaker 2: made a YouTube video about this. There's a lot of
18:30
Speaker 2: teams that have changed personnel, Nationals, Rockies, Athletics, Cardinals and
18:35
Speaker 2: are pitching minded. Are the teams that I'd say, back
18:38
Speaker 2: in that twenty twenty three area we thought of as
18:40
Speaker 2: like deficient on the pitching development side and are now
18:43
Speaker 2: on the uptrend. So we're getting to a point where
18:45
Speaker 2: like a lot of teams are catching up on the
18:47
Speaker 2: pitching side, which makes me very interested to see what
18:49
Speaker 2: the future looks like. What's the next development? You know,
18:52
Speaker 2: in five years, what team is the best and why?
18:54
Speaker 2: And that's something I'm thinking through a lot.
18:56
Speaker 3: Right, I'll tell you exactly what team is going to
18:59
Speaker 3: be the best, the team that figures out the health
19:01
Speaker 3: of pitching.
19:03
Speaker 2: Holy health pitching.
19:05
Speaker 3: If you raise your organizational velocity by I don't know
19:10
Speaker 3: what percentage that is, but you went from fifteenth to third,
19:15
Speaker 3: but your health declines. Is that a negative from a
19:19
Speaker 3: pitching development standpoint? Because you're in on it, is that
19:23
Speaker 3: a negative? And should team? Should teams and can teams
19:27
Speaker 3: figure out how to keep that health? Because to me,
19:30
Speaker 3: that's the holy grail of pitching development.
19:33
Speaker 2: I agree with you, I think that My theory right
19:35
Speaker 2: now is what we see is velocity continues to climb
19:38
Speaker 2: and injury rates either stagnate or slightly decrease, which I
19:42
Speaker 2: would argue is a positive trend overall for the league.
19:45
Speaker 2: If you can pump Velo up and that's the strongest
19:47
Speaker 2: correlation we have to UCLs popping and all these injuries
19:50
Speaker 2: and such, but you can maintain the injuryator drop it
19:52
Speaker 2: ever so slightly, that is an overall positive to me
19:55
Speaker 2: from an individual team standpoint. If you push vela up
19:58
Speaker 2: and the injury rates spike, it's a great question. I
20:02
Speaker 2: think a lot of people publicly would say it's not good.
20:03
Speaker 2: I know a lot of people internally that say that
20:05
Speaker 2: is literally the risk necessary in order to create major
20:08
Speaker 2: league level arms. The goal of pitching apartments is not
20:11
Speaker 2: to keep people healthy, it's to create major league starting pitchers.
20:14
Speaker 2: And what are major league starting pitchers right now? They
20:16
Speaker 2: throw really hard with massive breaking balls and have deep mixes.
20:19
Speaker 2: So there's any correlation between what I just said alongside
20:22
Speaker 2: the injury route, I think personally there are a lot
20:24
Speaker 2: of teams that would be comfortable with a small spike
20:27
Speaker 2: or even a relative spike an injury risk if you
20:29
Speaker 2: could then convince your fun office that your team created
20:33
Speaker 2: the possibility of major league starters or increase, excuse me,
20:37
Speaker 2: the possibility of having more major league starters. And they'll
20:40
Speaker 2: never tell you this, like teams are never going to
20:41
Speaker 2: tell you like our goal is, you know, or oh,
20:45
Speaker 2: we're totally gonna make sure all these guys are healthy.
20:47
Speaker 2: Like that goes entirely against the current incentives we have
20:49
Speaker 2: in the game, which are too throw hard to have
20:52
Speaker 2: nasty stuff. But this is the topic I've been thinking
20:55
Speaker 2: about a ton and I'm fascinated to see how teams
20:57
Speaker 2: address it over the next couple of years. And I
21:00
Speaker 2: I would love to see guys throwing more in the miners.
21:02
Speaker 2: I think it is a bit counterintuitive what we're seeing
21:04
Speaker 2: from like a baby and guys in the min standpoint.
21:07
Speaker 2: And you hear this from sharp people as well. And
21:09
Speaker 2: this is also like a relatively old school concept of
21:11
Speaker 2: like guys need to be worked up more in the
21:13
Speaker 2: miners to then have success in the major leagues. I
21:16
Speaker 2: think we're getting to a point perhaps it's going to
21:18
Speaker 2: take like a league incentive where maybe they cut the
21:21
Speaker 2: schedule by like seven or eight games. There's less games
21:24
Speaker 2: and there's roster limits, and they limit some of this
21:26
Speaker 2: piggybacking from Triple A to the majors, where teams are
21:29
Speaker 2: literally forced to figure out how to get this guy
21:32
Speaker 2: to go deeper into games. And maybe that creates a
21:34
Speaker 2: subtle drop in velocity, But I guarantee you if that
21:37
Speaker 2: velocity goes down and teams figure out, it's just gonna
21:39
Speaker 2: go right back up, because velocity, for the most part,
21:41
Speaker 2: is one of the strongest predictive success.
21:44
Speaker 5: Last question here, you put out a tweet the other
21:47
Speaker 5: day about the Angels, and I'm gonna read it here.
21:49
Speaker 4: You said, actually, an interesting question.
21:51
Speaker 5: If there is a consensus you're one of the worst
21:53
Speaker 5: orgs of developing in the minor leagues Angels in frenzies.
21:58
Speaker 5: There is it optional to rush players up so they
22:00
Speaker 5: get exposure faster, relatively better coaches slash processes. Now, are
22:05
Speaker 5: you saying it's not optional for them to send them up.
22:09
Speaker 5: You think they should send them up so they can
22:11
Speaker 5: get better coaches because of the minor league development.
22:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is like the worst kept secret of baseball.
22:16
Speaker 2: But you talk to anybody in baseball about pitching development
22:18
Speaker 2: or development generally, and you ask them like who are
22:21
Speaker 2: the worst two teams or just the worst team, You're
22:23
Speaker 2: gonna get the Angels like eighty to ninety percent of
22:25
Speaker 2: the time. So this isn't like a thing I'm just
22:26
Speaker 2: coming up with. But like anybody in baseball is not
22:29
Speaker 2: confident what the Angels are doing from a development standpoint
22:32
Speaker 2: as to why incredibly layered question. They have some really
22:35
Speaker 2: sharp people there. They have Barton Smith, who's the godfather
22:38
Speaker 2: of seem Shifted Awake. They have Jared Hughes, who I
22:40
Speaker 2: think is one of the sharper minds in baseball from
22:42
Speaker 2: the development standpoint as to why those results aren't geting
22:44
Speaker 2: down to the field level in the minors, I really
22:46
Speaker 2: have no idea, but this is something like I can't
22:49
Speaker 2: a scared. So they go to the winter meetings that
22:50
Speaker 2: I'm talking about, people are talking to people about, you know,
22:52
Speaker 2: what their ord's doing or something along those lines, and
22:55
Speaker 2: like people just joke with me that at least we're
22:57
Speaker 2: not the Angels, and like, I don't know what to say.
23:00
Speaker 2: At some point, someone has to be the voice that's
23:02
Speaker 2: like pushing this stuff out there. Everybody rips the Angels
23:04
Speaker 2: from an ownership standpoint, but like they haven't done a
23:07
Speaker 2: good job developing guys, and I think their motto is
23:10
Speaker 2: literally just to rush them up, because I don't know
23:12
Speaker 2: if they have confidence in what they're doing in the miners,
23:14
Speaker 2: like they're just mitigating the risk of what the minor
23:16
Speaker 2: leagues will do with the guy. And sure there's definitely
23:18
Speaker 2: seizing and that needs to go on. But when you
23:20
Speaker 2: have other organizations in baseball think that they're actively making
23:23
Speaker 2: players worse than the miners, like, I don't know what
23:26
Speaker 2: to tell you. Just bring the guy up to the
23:27
Speaker 2: majors and you know, get them around Suzuki and these
23:29
Speaker 2: other guys who are clearly probably better coaches than those
23:32
Speaker 2: they have in the miners. I don't mean to rip them,
23:33
Speaker 2: but again, like I'm I'm realting what everybody tells me
23:36
Speaker 2: every off season, and I'm getting to the point where
23:38
Speaker 2: like everyone who dms me and is like, man, what
23:41
Speaker 2: are the Angels gonna turn it around? It's like, man,
23:43
Speaker 2: I don't know, like you tell me, like there's gotta
23:45
Speaker 2: be some kind of change there. Everybody's on a one
23:47
Speaker 2: year contract, so like, I'm fascinating to see what they
23:49
Speaker 2: do next off season with things I really don't know
23:52
Speaker 2: where the start is in terms of making this team better.
23:55
Speaker 2: But I'm eventually gonna do some kind of like who's
23:57
Speaker 2: the best pitching to have organ Baseball and rank all
23:59
Speaker 2: the thirty team and like, I can guarantee you the
24:01
Speaker 2: Angels are number thirty right now. Especially what what the
24:03
Speaker 2: Rockies did? You know, they're always behind the curve, they
24:06
Speaker 2: haven't been good for a while, but look at what
24:08
Speaker 2: they just did. They brought in a bunch of outside
24:09
Speaker 2: voices Matt Daniels alone, likemen from the Marlins, Rivas from
24:13
Speaker 2: Ugly the Tigers. Like, there's new minds in there, new
24:16
Speaker 2: blood that I think will catalyze some change where I
24:20
Speaker 2: don't entirely know. I've seen that from an Angel's bringing
24:23
Speaker 2: in sharp people from other Organs standpoint. So I'm waiting
24:26
Speaker 2: for something to crack there and them to get better,
24:27
Speaker 2: because they do have some fun arms in the miners,
24:29
Speaker 2: but for now, I'm not really projecting any of them
24:31
Speaker 2: to be impact until I see systemic change.
24:34
Speaker 1: Well said, and I don't even think you have to
24:36
Speaker 1: defend ripping right.
24:38
Speaker 6: You are not a.
24:39
Speaker 1: Hot take artist. You are a data analyst. Like everything
24:44
Speaker 1: you're saying has a lot of backing to it right
24:46
Speaker 1: with research and homework so well, said Lant. It actually
24:50
Speaker 1: means a lot, and hopefully when you're saying this stuff publicly,
24:53
Speaker 1: it ultimately leads to change or at least keeps the
24:55
Speaker 1: conversation going. We gotta jump to next guest, but this
24:57
Speaker 1: was awesome, dude. We love catching up with you for
25:00
Speaker 1: joining us. Much more from Lance. Actually, we'll look for that.
25:02
Speaker 1: Let us know when it comes out, and we'll plug
25:03
Speaker 1: it too. When he does rank those one through thirty
25:06
Speaker 1: pitching development programs in baseball, Lance Brostowski with us.
25:10
Speaker 6: Thanks Lance, good talking to you man.
25:12
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me guys, take care you too.
25:14
Speaker 1: And of course Lance was referring to a tweet on
25:19
Speaker 1: Halo Territory. So go check out that tweet because it
25:22
Speaker 1: features Mike d gi Ivanna our newest show that was
25:24
Speaker 1: announced this week, and Mark Trumbo is the analyst.
25:28
Speaker 6: On that show.
25:29
Speaker 4: He's good.
25:30
Speaker 6: You remember he would hit some fricking dangers.
25:33
Speaker 4: Especially in the home run Derby to one year, Holy cow.
25:35
Speaker 6: Which year was he in yours?
25:37
Speaker 4: No? Yeah, it was yours? It was I think it
25:39
Speaker 4: was in San Diego.
25:41
Speaker 6: You were at Derby with him?
25:43
Speaker 4: Yeah, I kim Yeah, I lost that.
25:44
Speaker 6: One Wow, but you got you got one.
25:47
Speaker 4: All good.
25:48
Speaker 6: But Trumbo, dude, he was a beast. Beast, had a
25:53
Speaker 6: nice career, had a nice little run.
25:54
Speaker 1: So anyway, he's part of the Ft network. Now he's
25:56
Speaker 1: on that Halo Territory show that just came out, so
25:59
Speaker 1: make sure you check it out out. We are just
26:01
Speaker 1: about ready to bring in our next guest, who is
26:04
Speaker 1: the manager of the Kansas City Royal.
26:06
Speaker 6: So it was just one second. I'll have him right from.
26:09
Speaker 3: Trumbo and Todd both had flat level swings. If you
26:13
Speaker 3: would talk to guys that were that, you know, oh no, no,
26:17
Speaker 3: you got to swing up. You know, you gotta have
26:19
Speaker 3: this launch. Trumbo and Todd both hit the ball like this,
26:22
Speaker 3: like they would hit the ball right here and it
26:25
Speaker 3: will go just hit absolute laser beams.
26:32
Speaker 1: We're doing win totals and that's gonna take us through
26:35
Speaker 1: really the next month or one.
26:36
Speaker 6: Team by team.
26:37
Speaker 1: The Dodgers are at a crisp ninety nine and a
26:40
Speaker 1: half for their over under.
26:42
Speaker 6: Remember last year nobody four.
26:44
Speaker 4: Did anybody hit one hundred? Last year? I don't think
26:47
Speaker 4: anybody did.
26:48
Speaker 3: No, I don't think ninety ninety seven was the highest
26:52
Speaker 3: by who. Milwaukee brewjas yes, I think Jays.
26:59
Speaker 4: These are so hard, man, they're so hard.
27:01
Speaker 6: Dodgers read ninety three wins, but they're.
27:04
Speaker 4: Saying everything and everything.
27:06
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, yeah, that's the whole name of the game.
27:08
Speaker 6: How do you think the health looks? But also the usage?
27:12
Speaker 1: Right, the Dodgers are really good at playing the marathon
27:15
Speaker 1: game of making sure that they're as close to full
27:17
Speaker 1: strength of the playoffs as possible. I think they did
27:19
Speaker 1: a really nice job of that this year, right, I
27:21
Speaker 1: mean Blake Snell and Tyler Glass. Now I don't know
27:23
Speaker 1: how many starts to but it wasn't a ton. But
27:25
Speaker 1: then I'll take it in the playoffs you can get there.
27:28
Speaker 1: So do they crack one hundred wins? Do you take
27:31
Speaker 1: the under? Or we've been adding this to the mix.
27:34
Speaker 1: Skip the bat. You don't want to deal with that.
27:36
Speaker 5: I would say under, just in the fact that you
27:38
Speaker 5: said that they're very smart when making sure their guys
27:40
Speaker 5: are healthy, and they're not afraid to go for a
27:42
Speaker 5: three or four game losing streak when they're up to
27:46
Speaker 5: sacrifice making sure their guys are healthy. So I would
27:49
Speaker 5: say ninety seven.
27:52
Speaker 3: I would say under. But to me, I want to
27:55
Speaker 3: look at how good is the division. Actually it was
27:58
Speaker 3: last year were making a run and Scott Brown's.
28:01
Speaker 4: Like here they come wat He just kept going.
28:10
Speaker 3: That division may not have been that good. So if
28:12
Speaker 3: the division is down a tick, can they raise that
28:16
Speaker 3: ninety three wins? Can they get can they get to
28:19
Speaker 3: one hundred?
28:20
Speaker 2: Yes?
28:21
Speaker 3: Will they? I don't think they care to I don't
28:25
Speaker 3: unless somebody in the division pushes them to win one hundred.
28:28
Speaker 3: I don't think they care to win one hundred. I
28:30
Speaker 3: don't think that matters to them. In fact, I would
28:33
Speaker 3: guarantee it doesn't matter to them. All that matters is
28:36
Speaker 3: putting a ring on that thing.
28:38
Speaker 4: Mm hmm.
28:38
Speaker 1: And they have one of the oldest position player groups,
28:40
Speaker 1: which is fine. There's a lot of benefit to that.
28:42
Speaker 1: But they're going to be a load management team.
28:45
Speaker 6: They are.
28:46
Speaker 1: They're trying to win back to back to back titles.
28:50
Speaker 1: I think they're going to do that with everything.
28:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know.
28:54
Speaker 1: A guy gets hurt, they double the time he's sitting
28:57
Speaker 1: before he comes back.
28:58
Speaker 6: If they feel like they're in a good spot.
29:03
Speaker 3: But are you Are you as confident as our one yesterday?
29:06
Speaker 3: Are you as confident? That's the thing, Like, I think
29:09
Speaker 3: the Dodgers can run off one hundred wins season. I
29:12
Speaker 3: think you know they're capable of it.
29:15
Speaker 1: I'm not dropping a lot. This is not one that
29:17
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm always a big no, I'm with you.
29:20
Speaker 1: I mean, technically it's a skip for me just because
29:24
Speaker 1: there'll be enough else that I like on win totals,
29:28
Speaker 1: so it's a skip. But if we're playing the game
29:29
Speaker 1: over under, I will take the under on this one,
29:32
Speaker 1: and let's skew it up.
29:34
Speaker 6: It's a big night, big big night. It's the Final four.
29:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I even know what I'm talking about
29:42
Speaker 1: with college football since my alma mater is involved. So
29:47
Speaker 1: if you want a little boost, an odds boost token
29:49
Speaker 1: is there for you in your bet MGM account or
29:52
Speaker 1: on betmgm dot com on any college football playoff game,
29:55
Speaker 1: you'll get a bigger payout if your bet wins. Go
29:58
Speaker 1: check out what you can do there from more detail
30:00
Speaker 1: else at n m GM dot com.
30:02
Speaker 6: Cocaines