Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Can Trump end the Iran war and sell it as a victory

Transcript

Can Trump end the Iran war and sell it as a victory · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: I'm Brinkoff in Berlin. To our viewers watching on PBS
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: in the United States, streaming on YouTube, and to all
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: of you around the world, welcome. We begin the day
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: with another stand down ordered by President Trump. In recent days,
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Trump has signaled once again that the United States is
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: ready to launch a massive attack on Iran, but late
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, the US commander in chief again appeared to
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: back down, repeating the message that he believes a diplomatic
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: breakthrough is possible. Well, this has become a pattern. Trump's
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: abrupt reversals have defined the five month old war, irritating
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: global markets and yo yoing prices for fuel and basic goods.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Sunday's announcement led to a drop in oil prices. Now,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the US President says Iran and Washington's golf allies asked
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: him to hold back and that negotiations could produce deals
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: on both the Strait of Hormus and Iran's nuclear prob The.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Talks are going along. We're going to hit them very hard.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Yesterday had harder than any attack I think I can
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: say general from a point of knowledge, any attack since
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: World War Two. That's pretty big. And we were set
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: to go and they called, and in addition, Soudi Arabia called,
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: and u Uae called guitar call. I call some numerous people.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: I don't want to use the word begging, but some
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: some work in particular Ran did not want to be hit.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: And they said, we want to talk. We want to
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: talk about the strait, but more importantly from my standpoint,
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: we want to talk about the denuclearization of Iran.
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: What hey.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Ron says it is not negotiating with the United States
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: and that no meetings between the two sides are planned.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: It says its only discussions are with Oman in concern
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Horror.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Moose were like a bomb, you can.
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: We'll not currently hold negotiations with the United States. Our
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: talks are with Oman. The focused on reaching and understanding
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: on a route that would allow shipping to safely pass
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: through the Strait of Homu's.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: What joining me now is Alison Miner, director of the
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Project from Middle East Integration at the Atlantic Council. She
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: served as Deputy US Special Envoy for Yemen, and she
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: was a member of the White House National Security Council
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: during Trump's first term. In a new article that she
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: co authored for Foreign Policy. She argues that President Trump
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: must learn the diplomatic art of losing well. She writes
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: that is what ending the war requires, not an admission
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: of defeat, but a claim to victory on different terms
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: from the ones Trump set for himself at the outset.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: The war was never going to end with Iran's unconditional surrender. Alison,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: it's good to have you on the program. You know,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: you've been inside the White House. People are going to
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: read what you've written and ask themselves, what didn't the
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: President have people in the White House telling him that
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: an unconditional surrender was not going to happen? I mean,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: did people not tell him?
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: You know, it's difficult to say exactly what's happening in
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: this White House, but unfortunately we have seen a breakdown
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: of the normal policy process that would inform the president
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: of these kinds of consequences from these very bold foreign
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: policy decisions that he's made in the Middle East.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Recently, you know, the President saying that negotiations are Beginningron
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: says that there are no direct talks. We've just heard
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: in the last hour or so, the President complaining that
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: the Iranians are duplicitous. They say one thing and mean another.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Is President Trump? Is he once again announcing breakthroughs before
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: they exist, you know, pulling back and moving forward with
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: no plan.
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: You know, I think we're seeing yet another cycle, not
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: yet another iteration of a cycle that has occurred throughout
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: this war, where the President is ultimately trying to manage
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: a situation that has spun out of his control. So,
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: you know, he is effectively shaping the markets. We've seen
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: oil prices go down with his latest announcement, but in
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: the long run, we're actually seeking seeing US leverage diminishing
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: over time in Iran, continuing to demand greater and greater demand,
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: whether it's on reparations, whether it's on control of the
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: straight straight up hormuse. This is a you know, I think,
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: an attempt from the White House to manage the short
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: term consequences of this conflict without understanding the long term
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: reverberations for the United States, for the for the region,
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: and for the global economy.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: You argue that President Trump needs to quote lose, Well,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: what does that mean in practical terms? Mean? What would
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: a realistic American victory? What would it look like?
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: So the United States needs to be prepared to make
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: painful concessions to Iran in the short term in order
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: to protect as interests in the long term. And it
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: also needs to be thinking about these negotiations not as
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: a quick win for the US politically ahead of midterm elections,
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: but as something that can actually be shaped to improve
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: the US position in the region over the long term.
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: And I think in particular, we need to be making
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: concessions in order to preserve a manageable arrangement on the
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: straight of horror news, one that does not erode the
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: principle of freedom of navigation at a really critical time
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: and completely alter the balance of power in the Middle East.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: I think on Iran's new go ahead, go ahead, I
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: think on Iran's nuclear program that the good news is
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: that the situation is slightly more manageable given the impact
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: on Iran's nuclear facilities from the US and Israeli strikes
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: last year. And if we can get Iran to maintain
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: commitment to the terms in section nine of the MoU
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: that commits them to freezing their nuclear program, then I
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: think we can prepare to address that situation in the
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: medium term, not right now, because frankly, we just don't
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: have the negotiating space currently.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: You say that the US leverage is diminishing as this
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: war continues. Where has Washington already lost leverage and how
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: quickly could its position deteriorate further do you think?
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: I think we've seen Iran demonstrates that it is controlling negotiations,
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: most recently today with Tehran denying Trump's suggestion that there
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: are meetings, plan and TALX ongoing. But we've also seen
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: them willing to continue escalation so to demonstrate that they
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: are in control of this process, and as a result,
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: they are in a position to demand terms. Now it's
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: not just that they maintain some control over the straight
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: of horror moves, is that they dictate the passage of
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: all ships through all shipping lanes for the foreseeable future.
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: We've seen them now demanding reparations not just from the
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: United States but also from the very golf allies that
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: have suffered extensively from Iranian strikes over the past several months.
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: So these demands just keep growing, and unfortunately the US
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: has found that the while it is the greater military power,
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: there's only so much it can accomplish with those military tools.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you say, that you know that. I'm just wondering,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: why has the assumption that sufficient military and economic pressure
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: will eventually force Iran to surrender. Why has that assumption
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: proved so persistent in Washington, particularly inside the White House.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: You know, it's a good question. I think there are
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: some advocates here in Washington who still want to see
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: a US ground invasion of Iran and repeat of the
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: kind of campaign that the US led against Iraq in
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: two thousand and three. And I think as long as
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: that there is a group of people whispering in the
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: President's ear about that option, I think that you will
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: see this allure of military force continued to be on
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: the table. But unfortunately, you know, I just don't see
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: that as a realistic option currently.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: And you propose a limited deal centered on the Strait
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: of Horror moves, Let's flash that out a little bit.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: What would Iran have to do immediately and what would
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: the United States have to offer in return? What wouldn't
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: have to give up basically in the short term.
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: So I think that the most important thing for the
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: Strait of Horror moves is that Iran not be able
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: to unilaterally control the passage of ships through the Strait,
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: even if it's administrative control, if Iran can say that
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: it does not want a certain ship to pass through,
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: for example, if it dislikes what Saudi Arabia is doing
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: on Syria, it can demand or it can prevent Saudi
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: ships from passing through the Strait and demand changes to
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: Saudi Paul. It can do so all while remaining below
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: the threshold of a declaration of war, because again it
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: has that administrative control. I just don't think we can
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: afford to give or that leverage regionally or globally, in
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: addition to the negative precedent that we could see it
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: set for maritime trope points across the globe. So really
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: what I would like to see is some sort of
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: arrangement that is consistent with international conventions, and placing a
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: sort of coordination body under un auspices could provide that
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: protection in terms of what the United States has to
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: be willing to give up. Ultimately, Iran's has been strategically
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: emboldened by this conflict, but they've remain in a very
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: precarious economic position. So we will have to look to
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: those kinds of economic concessions, and we recommend my co
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: author Nate Swanson and I in the article re issuing
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: General License X, which allows Iran to maintain its oil exports.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: It's not something that we saw the President give away
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: during this conflict for nothing. So I think now we
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: have to bring that concession to bear to try to
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: protect our interest over the long term.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Am I reading you right? The point that has to
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: be made that cannot be sacrificed here is that America
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: cannot be doing anything that rewards Tehran for using force
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: to control an international waterway, right, And.
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: I think even you could say the terms of the
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: MOLU that the US and Iran agreed to a couple
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: months ago, it still looked to Tehran to bring the
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: level of ships back up to pre war levels. It
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: was kind of implicitly legitimizing this Iranian assertion that they
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: will control the passage of ships through the Strait. And
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: that's just something we have to go back to a
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: situation where you do not have a single littoral state
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: controlling the passage of ships through a maritime trou point. Again,
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: this is not the only maritime trou point globally. The
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: entirety of the global economy relies on a handful of
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: these maritime trop points, and if we set a precedent
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: that one state can control, can dictate the passage of ships,
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: can use that as a lever, whether it's an economic
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: lever to gain resources or a diplomatic lever to gain leverage.
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: I think we're going to see that that's going to
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: have huge consequences globally, even beyond this current crisis.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Also, you know, the point of saving face here you
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: argue that both sides must be able to claim victory.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, what can Tevron plausibly present as a victory
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: and what could Trump credibly present as one? Could he say, well,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: we've kept the straight of horror moose open.
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: So for Iran, you know, I frankly think this will
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: be easier for them to present as a victory. They
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: get to assert that they will have some sort of
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: oversight role over the Strait. And the reality is we've
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: seen Tehran realize that all of a sudden, the straight
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: of Horror moves can in fact be a more effective
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: deterrent to prevent renewed strikes from the US, Israel or
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: other actors than a nuclear weapon. Tehran will maintain that
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: that urrants. We know now that they can disrupt the
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: passage of ships through the strait of horror moves, but
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: we want to keep their ability to do so within
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: the threshold of war. We do not want them to
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: be able to control those the passage of ships through
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: administrative means that fall below that threshold. So I think
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: that this creates space teh Krown gets to say it
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: still has a role in the strait of horror moves,
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: maintain that deterrent, and in addition, it will get significant
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: economic concessions without having to address the thorny topic of
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: its nuclear program, because you know, we've seen that this
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: Iranian regime is just very hesitant about negotiating on its
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: nuclear program with the trust that Trump administration. Given the
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: absence of trust, it's a little bit harder, I will admit,
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: for Trump to sell this as a deal, but you know,
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: it allows him to mitigate the global economic consequences of
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: this conflict, and he also gets to claim that he
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: has not fallen into the trap of so many past
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: presidents of a forever war. This is a way for
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: him to definitively end this conflict instead of these recurrent
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: cycles of escalation every couple of months that we've seen
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: over the past year.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Let me ask you, we've got about thirty seconds. How
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: significant is the current freeze on Iran's nuclear program? I mean,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: does it genuinely give Washington time.
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: We are no longer facing the kind of imminent threat
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: that we were facing before the US and Israeli strikes
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: last year. It's impossible to know exactly until we get
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: international inspectors back in the country to really say, but
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: I think we can be confident that if Iran just
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: maintains the status quo, that the nuclear problem is something
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: that we can address in the medium term, and that
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: we need to address not unilaterally as the United States,
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: but as the United States working with partners in Europe
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: in the Gulf who can also bring their own leverage
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: and diplomatic engagement with Iran to bear to try to
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: come to a more workable solution.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Allison Minor, Alison, good to have you on the program.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Good to get your analysis on what is a complicated situation.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Thank you,