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AFC East Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: and Podcast Network.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Lots of conversations to have about life and the NFL. Today,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: let's welcome in my co host, my companion, Michael Padre,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: my BFF professional better Simon Hunter.
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: Heato.
• 0:28
  Speaker 4: So I'm in Chad. How are we doing?
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Dude?
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: You and I could not be on more opposite ends
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: of the spectrum of life. What I thought about multiple
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: times this past weekend when you were sending us a
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: picture of your whole crew which did not need to
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: make much of an effort to look exactly like Fred
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Durst from Limp Biscuit at your bachelor party this weekend,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: while I was managing so much family stuff and the
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: end of having kids at home, please tell me, please
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: give me like the highlight of something fun.
• 1:12
  Speaker 5: I mean, there was a lot of I mean, they're
• 1:13
  Speaker 5: just it was just stupid as shit. I mean from
• 1:16
  Speaker 5: the get gostupid. I literally get there and one of
• 1:19
  Speaker 5: the guys I'm staying with his car is getting about
• 1:21
  Speaker 5: to get towed like the literally the truck is backing
• 1:23
  Speaker 5: up the tote and I had to tell the guy, hey,
• 1:24
  Speaker 5: that's my car, because I saw the kid had Delaware
• 1:28
  Speaker 5: Rugby stickers on the back of it. So it was
• 1:30
  Speaker 5: a bunch of you Dell rugby kids ten years later
• 1:33
  Speaker 5: in Dewey Beach, so they.
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: Were all reliving their glory days and it.
• 1:36
  Speaker 5: Was Chad's old the picture. It was like thirty guys,
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: all different walks of life, all real characters, but they're
• 1:44
  Speaker 5: all connected through one person.
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: Obviously that's what a bachelor party is. So it was
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: like his childhood buddies, his college buddies.
• 1:50
  Speaker 5: And yeah, my first time really doing Dewey Beach. The
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: bar scene's the best way I can describe. Again, I'm
• 1:57
  Speaker 5: old now, so like there's milts, which are people my age,
• 2:01
  Speaker 5: and then above and then like young twenty year old
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: who didn't know who Fred Durst was and was like,
• 2:06
  Speaker 5: why are thirty you all dressed so weird? All these
• 2:09
  Speaker 5: guys run up to one bar all over. But yeah,
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: I'd say the funniest memory was again I'm an old man.
• 2:18
  Speaker 5: I go to bed early, and I'm woking up probably
• 2:22
  Speaker 5: every half hour because people are coming back.
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: So again I'm a light sleeper.
• 2:28
  Speaker 5: At four four thirty in the morning, it sounds like
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: someone just got thrown through a wall in the apartment
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: above me. Like, so we run out the bottom and
• 2:37
  Speaker 5: the top part of the apartment and all you hear
• 2:40
  Speaker 5: is just ship breaking, like insanity. And again I went
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: checked the kitchen make sure no one through the floor,
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: because that's how loud it was. We wake up the
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: next morning. I looked like a bomb went off upstairs.
• 2:51
  Speaker 5: It was just three guys fighting. Yeah, just again, not
• 2:54
  Speaker 5: fighting like you think, like, just guys being guys.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, resumes pretending they're in a hockey fight.
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: Yeah, and he's suplex the guy and the guy could
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: barely walk and it's like, you guys are all in
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: your thirties, what's going on? So uh yeah, what exactly
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: you would think it would go with the rugby guys
• 3:09
  Speaker 5: from U Dell at Dewey Beach ten years later.
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: So yeah, it was a great time. It was a
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: great crew, really funny group.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: Ah Like yeah, it sounds amazing.
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: Yeah, No, it was like I can't keep up. I like,
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: even with them, I can't keep up. But you forget
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: about the old days, right, You just go to the beach.
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: You start drinking at eleven am, and you drink all day,
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: you eat all day, go out to bars.
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: And restaurants all day, all night, and it's just like,
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: damn man, those were the good days. No worries. You're
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: just boozing and eating and it's warm and sunny out.
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I enjoyed it. But like I said, the
• 3:42
  Speaker 5: whole time we just talked football. It's like it's just
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: on the tip of everyone's tongue. So I was like
• 3:47
  Speaker 5: enjoying it. In the back of mind the whole time,
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: I'm just like, can I watch this Browns game on
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: my phone in this bar right now and not be
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: judged because I just want to watch standards. So yeah,
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: it was fun going out with everyone, but also always
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: football chat football.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: By the way, the last time I really did what
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: you talked about, which is starting to eat and drink
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: at eleven am and just going all night was spring
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: break my senior year of college, when we are maybe
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: my junior year of college and my sophomore year of college,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: when we went to Panama City, Florida, and there were
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: like fifteen of us.
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: Your Girl's Gone Wild video. I have to now go
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: through my collections if I can see Chad.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: We like drove from Bloomington, Indiana to Panama City. We
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: started eating and drinking so early. I don't think I
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: was hungry or sober for six days. Yeah I gained
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: on that trip. You know what I look like?
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I gained thirteen pounds.
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: Because you probably didn't go to the bathroom once. That's
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: how funny your bals got.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: I had a picture of me from that trip, and
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: I'm like, my face looked like a basketball.
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: I can't even picture of fat Chad. That's how I'll
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: go to shape you are. I came to visualized you
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: see it.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: That was the last time.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Meanwhile, I am going through the throes of emotion that
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: come from the final days having a kid in the
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: house before he goes to college, our youngest kid of
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: the two, and we like have been doing stuff and
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: I'm realizing, holy shit, we're sixteen days away from this now.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Last week we went to the Red Sox game. He
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: had never been Fenway, and we at some point every
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: summer I did this with my other kid too, would
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: go somewhere just the two of us. And this is
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: the last one, you know, before he goes to college.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: We're driving up to the game. I'm like in tears
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: four or five different times recognizing this, he never looks
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: up from his phone.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: It's fine.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: This weekend, I made him watch the Bear's preseason game
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: with me, even though like he was dying to get
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: out of the house and go to the gym. I'm like, guy,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: first half, just sit with me. We're gonna do it
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: like I'm envisioning. So my texting him during the Bears
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: games now non.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: Stop, like we were watching the Cubs a little bit.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I'm like last night, I'm like, so, how am I
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: gonna do this when he's not sitting next to me.
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: I don't even know how I'm gonna function.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: And you know how last week, like I told you,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: my wife actually asked me about points spreads. This week
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: she came downstairs in an old school favorite T shirt
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: that has cartoon caricatures of you and I on the back.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: And then I realized why she's doing it. She's not
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: doing it because like she knows I'll be miserable when
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: our son leaves the house. It's because she knows I'm
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: the only one left.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: That's it.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: It's me and the dog. And right now the dog
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: is on my side. I am totally the dog's person.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: So like my wife is realizing, oh no, she's going
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: to be home alone with us. I better start showing
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: my husband I like him again after twenty two years
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: of having kids in the house. That's where it's coming from.
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: Melbourn, hold on one of the biggest story that or
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: she's about to get another dog. You don't even know it.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: It's entirely possible.
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: That is possible, by the way, all right.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: You mentioned football today as our annual Division by division
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: NFL preview episode on the AFC East, home of the
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: league's MVP Josh Allen, its most bettable coach and Mike Vrabel,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: its most disgruntled wide receiver in Tyreek Hill, the franchise
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: with the whiniest fan base, the New York.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: Jets, at the request.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Of longtime listener Mike Schiffman, at least, I think.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: I think that's how you say his name. I'm kidding.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I'm adding which divisions the AFC East plays both in
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: its own conference and in the NFC. The AFC East
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: plays this year, the NFC South and the AFC North. Simon,
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: We're gonna start with the Buffalo Bills Division minus two,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: seventy five Conference plus three twenty five Super Bowl plus
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: seven hundred win total eleven and a half. There is
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: no division that has a bigger disparity between the odds
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: on favorite and anyone else in the division. You said
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: this last week you love the Bills. I will say
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I went through the schedule to find twelve wins. They
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: open with Baltimore, then they have the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Patriots, Falcons, Panthers.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: So they obviously get the Jets, Miami and the Patriots
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: two times each, plus they have the Browns. I might
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: be inclined to wait until after six or seven weeks
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: and then see how their season win total is and
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: maybe try and bet it then before I dive in
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: Are you a non believer, Chad? Is that what you're saying?
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Well, I'm not a non believer, but.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: I think Josh Allen last year obviously had the best
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: year he's ever had, and I think there were some
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: factors that helped him along the way. Specifically, as much
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: as he was brilliant when he was running the ball
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: and they developed sort of a tush push strategy, his
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: receivers averaged more than a yard more after the catch
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: than at any point in his career.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: And I remember watching last year, how.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Many times did his guys get open and then get
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: yardage that they needed to make the game shift untilt
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: in their direction. That's as big a factor as anything.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: So and I don't don't. I just don't know if
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: their defense is good enough yet, Like and so, last
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: year to me was as good as they could possibly be.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Can they be better? They can be one of the
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: two three best teams in the AFC, but is that
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: going to be good enough?
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: That's why I'm not like all in yet.
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: I'm shocked.
• 10:30
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I would say, of all the teams that are safe,
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: bet this feels like the safest.
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: That's why the odds are what they are.
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: Professionals came in and hit this as soon as they
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: opened it, and it was really.
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: Based off the guess of what the schedule would be.
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: And then once the schedule came out, this number really
• 10:47
  Speaker 5: moved up because it kind of laid out perfect for them.
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: They do have a very easy schedule. So that's why
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't wait.
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: If I'm gonna bet this, Like, if I'm betting their
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: win total, I'll take it eleven and a half, No problem.
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: Gives the shit.
• 10:58
  Speaker 6: It's like pizza baby, It's good no matter, there's the
• 11:01
  Speaker 6: shout yeah, shouting out, it's a good time, you know
• 11:08
  Speaker 6: what I mean, rubbing up against each other, trying to
• 11:10
  Speaker 6: make it honest.
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: I get it.
• 11:12
  Speaker 5: Their divisional lodge is high. So we've talked about like
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: I put them in parlays. But I don't know if
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: you're getting lost a little bit, but we I definitely
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: got lost in it last year where I took josh
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: Allen's talent for granted. And I can't believe I even
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: thought the Jets or anyone else in the division had
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: a chance all this.
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: I don't think anyone has a chance.
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: I know that.
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: I'm just saying, like overall this is this is lined
• 11:37
  Speaker 5: up for them this season. Like you said, there's questions
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: on the defense, of course, like that's that's going to
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: be their weakness because he doesn't play defense.
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: The MVP is not on defense.
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: They have holes on defense, and they're older in some places.
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: So I get the skepticism, but it's all josh Awen.
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: That's why you asked me if they could be cursed
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: from the hard knocks, and it's like the Bills there
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: they are the curse, like the losing four straight Super
• 11:59
  Speaker 5: Bowl as I told you. They just this fan base
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: can't be phased by the bullshit of hard knocks, and
• 12:05
  Speaker 5: Josh Allen, I joke to you he is doing an
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: absurd amount of therapy in the offseason because he's zero
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: and four against Mahomes in the playoffs and he knows.
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: He is better than he is better than Mahomes. We
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: all know this.
• 12:16
  Speaker 5: But again, I had him at three, you had him
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: at two. We all put Homes above him because he
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: wins when it matters, like cool, Josh Allen MVP last year,
• 12:25
  Speaker 5: Matt Mitchell didn't go to a parade in Buffalo. No
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: one did because there isn't one. They don't matter and
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: MVP is cool. And that was my whole point with
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: the whole QB rankings is we've gone too far with
• 12:34
  Speaker 5: the stats. And Josh Allen knows that where it's his stats,
• 12:38
  Speaker 5: he likes it. He likes win an MVPs.
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: But he even watched the hard Knocks.
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: I love how he is just so he knows the deal.
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: It's all bullshit, like he wants to see people slam
• 12:48
  Speaker 5: through tables in February, rotting down Buffalo's main street with
• 12:52
  Speaker 5: all the fans. So I'm with you that you can
• 12:54
  Speaker 5: have skepticism on this team further win total and you
• 12:56
  Speaker 5: can try to go against it, but I'm not going
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: to overthink it. I'll go over and I would be
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: shocked if turn out the one or two. See the
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: way their schedule lines up in their division, like we're
• 13:06
  Speaker 5: about the dive of their division here.
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: The only way it.
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: Doesn't work out is if he gets hurt, Like if
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: he's healthy, at best, he's losing one home game. Josh
• 13:15
  Speaker 5: Allen just does not lose home games, like he is
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: just a different beast at home and even on the road.
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: We saw last year that was his biggest step up
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: as he's not doing those super turnovers like him and
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: Joe Brady. It's another year together. So yeah, this is
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: a team you can tell like I am on. I'm
• 13:30
  Speaker 5: all in on them, like them the Chiefs. They are
• 13:33
  Speaker 5: the only teams I've taken positions.
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: On in the AFC for Super Bowl.
• 13:36
  Speaker 5: And Josh Allen's so good that he makes me break
• 13:39
  Speaker 5: a rule, which I know it's a dumb rule, but
• 13:41
  Speaker 5: I usually don't put a high amount of money to
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: teams organizations that never won Super Bowls before. NFL is
• 13:47
  Speaker 5: really weird where teams that have won before in the
• 13:49
  Speaker 5: past or whatever, they tend to repeat teams have never
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: won before. I don't know why, they just they don't win.
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: Like we've seen it time and time again. The same organizations.
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: I mean, you can just go back to the last
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: ten years and look at the repeats. It's it's the
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: same organizations are always in the super Bowl. But with
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: the talent level they have, Chad, the money they've spent
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: on their young talent, of their defense, I do think
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: with the coaching staff they have, and this is like,
• 14:12
  Speaker 5: this is a true attend to this division. So and
• 14:14
  Speaker 5: then the not just the division of the league. So yeah,
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: minus two seventy five, Chad News I've bet that straight up. Yeah,
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: if someone out there you're making one divisional bet and
• 14:22
  Speaker 5: you want to go safe, go for it, like you're
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: probably not gonna lose your money unless Josh Allen gets hurt.
• 14:28
  Speaker 5: But again, there's too much risk for me with that
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: with injuries that I'd rather parlays parlay this into something
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: than putting all this into one bet. So yeah, as
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: you can tell, Chad, I'm very high on this team,
• 14:36
  Speaker 5: and I'm with you.
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: The biggest Achilles heel when you drive.
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: Through the numbers, and this this organization is their drafting
• 14:42
  Speaker 5: of their defense. Have these guys improved enough on the
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: talent they've lost in the back end these last couple
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: of years to be a great defense to match Josh
• 14:49
  Speaker 5: Allen And they have not. They've not shown up in
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: the playoffs when it matters, it's always on Josh Allen.
• 14:53
  Speaker 5: And you know last year, I like I said, I
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: don't want to make the excuse for him, but you know,
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: you expect, you put up thirty points on the road,
• 15:01
  Speaker 5: you're probably gonna win. And that he fell apart in
• 15:04
  Speaker 5: the defense, fall apart there that against the Chiefs.
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: So that that's the question. Chat like you have it.
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: It's the defense.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: But also we talked about the young talent they're adding
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: to the defense. Everything I keep reading is about Matt
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Mulano coming back and how he's a game changer for
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: this defense. They weren't that good when he was playing
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: last year and so.
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: He was hurt.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but he's been hurt NonStop.
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: But when he comes to the field, like even the playoffs,
• 15:34
  Speaker 5: he made a couple of plays, You're like, that's why
• 15:36
  Speaker 5: he's so special, Like even in that Ravens game, he
• 15:38
  Speaker 5: had a couple of players where we're like, that's why
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: he is special. I get you're coming from he's older
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: and he gets hurt a lot, but that's just a name.
• 15:44
  Speaker 5: That's why they're telling you that because there are other
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: guys in their defense.
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: That aren't hiusehold names. That's why they're not talking about it.
• 15:49
  Speaker 5: But to me, again, I get where you're coming from
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: where it's like he's an older guy, but he's not
• 15:55
  Speaker 5: like they have other parts that are gonna be more important.
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: But I agree, the question for me is just going
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: to be there.
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: Like they they've been drafting secondary, they've been spending money
• 16:04
  Speaker 5: on the secondary.
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: Can can they cover?
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: Because I still can't believe Mahomes and that that Chiefs
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: offense put up whatever it was, thirty three thirty points
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: last year.
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: In that playoff game.
• 16:15
  Speaker 5: That was not I think that might have been the
• 16:16
  Speaker 5: first time all year they put over thirty points, right,
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: something crazy like that.
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: So that's that's the acchilles of this team.
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: And I think that's why I get your skepticism when
• 16:23
  Speaker 5: you talked about it a little bit, but I've been
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: blind to it all summer. I'm just like, man, this
• 16:28
  Speaker 5: is he's twenty nine, Josh Allen whatever, this is his
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: seventh or ade season. It's just all lined up, like,
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: is he really about to go zero for five against
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: Mahomes and the playoffs? I just I can't believe it,
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: Like when you dive into the stats, it doesn't make sense.
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: It's an anomaly. He's just so talented, he's so good,
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: but he just keeps fucking up in these fourth quarters,
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: or the defense fucks up for them in the fourth quarters.
• 16:49
  Speaker 5: And it's like, if you're a Betty Mant Chad, eventually
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: it's gonna go the other way.
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: Brother.
• 16:53
  Speaker 5: So that's why I'm hitting it. You know, super Bowls
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: plus seven hundred. You could do what Chad's doing, which
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: is like bad, and maybe see if you can get
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: a better number. But I do matchups, so like I've
• 17:04
  Speaker 5: already thrown a couple of matchups with them in the Rams,
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: them and the Eagles, and they're all they're all nice
• 17:08
  Speaker 5: and juice. I think they're all like fifty or forty
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: five to one.
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: You know, I do the matchups.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: I've already I actually did the Bills and the Niners
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: at forty five to one like that. I think we
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: talked about this with the NFC West.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: I just feel like I'm.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Not seeing any value in anything Betting the Bills outright
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half. I guess you could take it,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: but it just feels like last year was so elite
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: and so special it's ripe for some regression. It wasn't
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: just Josh Allen. It was sort of everything being perfect
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: on the offense. I watched the movie Sinners over the weekend.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: I didn't even know Hailey Steinfeld was in it, and
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: she was awesome, and it just made me excited for
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: her and Josh Allen because you know, I love love.
• 17:56
  Speaker 5: She's the ultimate catch, and you know, Josh like, that's
• 17:59
  Speaker 5: why I love about it though, Like he's hype dives,
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: he has an off field life, but even watching Hard Knocks,
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: he's just so committed to that team and that organization,
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: the fan base.
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: It's like they just I can't get over how they
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: deserve it. The Bills deserve this, but you really.
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: You got you got one of a comment with Josh Allen.
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: He is he is superman, sotty, pretty sweet.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: I just think it'd be great if next year Josh
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: Allen is coming off of super Bowl win and Hailey
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: Steinfeld is walking the red carpet with him at the Oscars.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: I think it'll be amazing, all right, Matt Mitchell. I
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: feel like we need to get Matt Mitchell's take here
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: because he's so aligned with the Bills and defined by
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: the Bills.
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: I appreciate you making me a part of this.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: Will you offer any insight as a fan?
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: I'll say this, I am consumed with the exact same
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: amount of dread for the exact same amount of reasons
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: as I have been. I think Simon nailed it perfectly.
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: I do think if you want to get involved in
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: betting Buffalo, I actually do think the Super Bowl matchup
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: angle is probably a really smart one because seventy one's
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: asinine because it always feels like it's a billion to
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: one that they'll win the super Bowl the last season
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: in the old stadium, and wanting to know if you're
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: a conspiracy theorist, the league turning its eye to Buffalo.
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: They'll want them to be successful and make money in
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: this unbelievably expensive, publicly funded stadium. So I think there's
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: some angles there, all right.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: No, it's good for the script. I agree with that. Yeah,
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: New England Patriots.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: This is what's interesting, huge trendy team getting a trend
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: alert here. Matt Mitchell cue the alarm trend alert.
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: Ms of bursting at the moment from Melbourne.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Everyone loves this team. You can see it in the numbers.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: For example, their conference styles are thirty five to one.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: There's Super Bowl odds are seventy five to one. Their
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: win total is seven and a half, same exact across
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: the board as the Miami Dolphins, but the Patriots division
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: odds five to one, the Dolphins division odds seven to one.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: So we know where the money's going. We know what
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: people are excited about. And then this past weekend against
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: the Bills, like everyone are not against the Bills. Oh
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: my god, I just totally forgot who they. I think
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: they played the Commanders the Patriots. They're starting with their
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: new left tackle. That kid from LSU looked amazing. Those
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: little videos were all over the TikTok of him doubling guys,
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: of him pancaking guys.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: So hooray the Patriots are back.
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: It's going to be a team that, like you just said,
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: the general public's gonna hype up, and you know, is
• 21:03
  Speaker 5: it deserving?
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: Chad of the hype. You know, it's all.
• 21:06
  Speaker 5: It's all debatable, but I think we both look at
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: this team and we see the pieces they have and
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: it all comes back to Rabel, right. I think we're
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: both one of those guys. We just we look at
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: coach and it's such an important cog and I think
• 21:18
  Speaker 5: most professional betters do. And that's why they've taken a
• 21:21
  Speaker 5: position here where it's like, Okay, they.
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: Have the schedule you expect.
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: When they have they've addressed the offensive line, it should
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: be so much improved that you know, if Diggs just
• 21:31
  Speaker 5: gets back to seventy five percent is what he was
• 21:34
  Speaker 5: before the knee injury, that's.
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: A huge upgrade for them. The wires super position, this
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: is someone that can run.
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: Routes like he is really really crisp, but at running routes,
• 21:42
  Speaker 5: that's what Digs has always been so talented at. So,
• 21:45
  Speaker 5: you know, Drake May you know people people have taken
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: positions on them. We've had people on the show that
• 21:53
  Speaker 5: you know, talked about him being one of the best
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: quarterbacks they thought coming out in that group, and I've
• 21:57
  Speaker 5: just I've never seen it. And even last year he
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: had moments of that.
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: He popped.
• 22:02
  Speaker 5: But it's like, you know, we all know he has
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: the talent that have throat beat deep throws downfield, or
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: he can run the ball, and that's that.
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: Was never the question with him.
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: The question with him was being consistent, and that was
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: the problem with him coming out and last year was
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: kind of a throwaway because you know, this year is
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: gonna have Rabel McDaniel's coaching them up.
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: That's a huge, huge upgrade than what he had last year.
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: I think people might be a year early on him
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: because of what they're projecting, because people are like, well,
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: they have an easy schedule. Every fan base, you talk
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: to any fan base outside of New England, you're you're
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: the easy team on their schedule in New England, Like
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: you're talking about everyone being you have an easy schedules here.
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: When people look at their schedule and break it down No.
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: Thirty one, other teams are saying, that's a win against you, guys.
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: I don't think anyone's giving a loss to the Patriots.
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: So they're they're an interesting team where it's like I
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: get what the bookmakers they're doing. They're taking a position
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: on them and their model is projecting out this is
• 22:56
  Speaker 5: a really talented team.
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: I think it's a year early.
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: Like my model literally has them right next to Miami basically.
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: And you just talked about the difference like seven to
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: one Miami to win this division.
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: They're five to one.
• 23:08
  Speaker 5: That's a big that's a big difference. So yeah, I
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: like this Patriots team a lot. I love the pieces there,
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: but it's like, oh, I don't what is what is
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: the ceiling? It's they put them at seven and a
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: half wins. Are you taking their under? I'm not taking
• 23:21
  Speaker 5: their under because there's so many variables. They could easily
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: go over this with Rabel and Drake May.
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: Because it sucks to lose. It fucking sucks losing awful.
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: That's why I want to win.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: Dude, I did the math, all right, I did the
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: math because a I've asked this before, But give me
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: your opinion on the number of wins you think Mike
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: Vrabel can get for this team because of his coaching.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Remember Mike Rabel managing the clock, managing the game overall, strategically,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: understand the rules. Doesn't have any peers in the NFL
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: right now. The only one was Belichick, and he was
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: out maneuvering Belichick the last few times they played against
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: each other, So I have an opinion on how many
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: games I think he can win for them.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: How many do you think? How many do you think
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: he can win for them?
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah? I think last time I said two, and I
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: think you had at two and a half, right, Yeah,
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: something like that.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I set the line at two and a half.
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: I think it can be as many as three. There's
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: a couple factors for me that make me like this
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: over and it's actually not the Drake May hype. I
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: think that the offensive line will be improved. I think
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: it's a generally better coach team. I'm discounting Stefan Diggs.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: You just don't know. So their skill positions haven't really
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: improved very much. But I think their defensive line will
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: be better. They got Milton Williams, Christian Barmore will be back.
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: I like their defensive back Fiel of the Lot Christian
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: Gonzales continuing to improve as a physical, lockdown corner. They
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: have really good offensive backs. But like you just said,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: it's the schedule.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: I count.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: I count six fifty to fifty games Raiders, Steelers.
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: Panthers, Dolphins twice.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: I count six games that they should win Giants, Jets
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: two times, Browns, Titans, Saints.
• 25:26
  Speaker 5: So but this is my point, they're honestly not that
• 25:30
  Speaker 5: much better than those teams. So that's gonna be the
• 25:32
  Speaker 5: thing you need. You're gonna need Drake Man to take
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: that step.
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: Like of course, that's the margin.
• 25:36
  Speaker 5: With football is that you need you need the quarterback
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: to show it and be consistent. Where we all know
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: he has talent, but talent doesn't mean shit in the NFL.
• 25:47
  Speaker 5: Everybody has talent, So can he be consistent with the
• 25:50
  Speaker 5: talent that he has is the biggest question. And yeah,
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: for me, I wanted to take the over coming into this.
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: I mean, we talked about them months ago where I
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: felt they were the best value bet.
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: For this division.
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: I still think that's true in some sense, even though
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: it's come down a little bit. It's like if Drake
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: make takes that next step and Josh Allen eventually takes
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: the wrong hit, like he's such a physical quarterback, you know,
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: nothing lasts forever. Yeah, this would be their front runner
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: to me. So then all of a sudden, me and
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: you have amazing odds I'm most likely their front runner
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: team just because the hype is so high, Like you
• 26:20
  Speaker 5: said with this new England team and.
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: The schedule breaks that way. So I get it.
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: I get why guys are taking a position on them.
• 26:26
  Speaker 5: I just I can't find it like right now, like
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: we already talked about it, Like I was confident on
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: the Bills over eleven and a half, This one I
• 26:34
  Speaker 5: wanted to be confident on like I had confident. Like again,
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: my model has an eight and a half. That's a
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: full game up, So I would bet this if you
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: want to take the over here. I'm just I'm so
• 26:43
  Speaker 5: nervous about Drake May. I haven't seen enough even in
• 26:45
  Speaker 5: this training camp. I haven't read enough of him being
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: consistent where it's like I want to see them, you know,
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: a week out before the season before I put any
• 26:52
  Speaker 5: money to this Patriots team. I really need more time,
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: more info from the be writers, just because right now
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: it's just too much happiness and excite me with the
• 26:59
  Speaker 5: Patriots up there, Like everything just seems like such flowers
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: and bullshit. Able Like had some comment to some guy
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: in they meet and everyone went ape shit. They're like,
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: this is what we needed, this is what we miss
• 27:08
  Speaker 5: and it's like, yeah, I get it. We all love Rabel,
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: but we need to see what his actual game plan
• 27:15
  Speaker 5: will be on the field. So uh yeah, good start
• 27:17
  Speaker 5: to it, right. They blew that, like you said, they
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: blew out the Commanders. Good defense, discipline, that's what that
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: organization needs. So the right start for the preseason. But yeah,
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: I need to see what's going on with Drake Main
• 27:28
  Speaker 5: these next you know, three weeks to really have a
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: confident bet on them.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I lean over, but it is not even close
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: to my favorite bet in the division. Have we gone
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: anywhere near any of your favorite bets in the division
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: so far?
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: I just want to make sure it wills.
• 27:46
  Speaker 5: I love Like we just talked about the bill super
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: Bowl bets against Super Bowl matchups and they're over. I
• 27:50
  Speaker 5: love low and a half, Like, okay, I get them
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: at thirteen wins, and like, as a huge that's my
• 27:57
  Speaker 5: model as a human. I'm just like I'm the opposite
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: of you. I look at their schedule, I'm like, where
• 28:02
  Speaker 5: do they lose? Like they're just they are just so
• 28:04
  Speaker 5: much better than some man of these other teams because
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: the style they play with Joe Brady and the ball
• 28:08
  Speaker 5: control of that running style they have on offense.
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: Now, so yeah, I told you, I'm drinking too much
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: of the kool aid.
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: So I was happy to hear you skeptical because I
• 28:16
  Speaker 5: need a little bit of pull back. I've talked to
• 28:18
  Speaker 5: other pros who pulled back a little bit because of
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: that defense. But I'm also just like, man, it's it's
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: so hard to pull back Josh Allen at this this
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: age and this prime. It's just we saw it last year,
• 28:28
  Speaker 5: Like you said, that was his best season ever. He
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: just has gotten better every year, and it's like, what
• 28:33
  Speaker 5: is this. Are we about to see the next step
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: where he literally has one to two turnovers this upcoming season.
• 28:38
  Speaker 5: I mean, that's that's gonna be the game changer for him.
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: Is just if he cannot fumble or throw those stupid
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: picks in the red zone, which we saw last year,
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: he became MVP. So that's that's the question with them
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: and with this team here, it's all about Drake May.
• 28:51
  Speaker 5: Like I don't think neither.
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: You were either high on him or low on him.
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: We're just no opinion. He didn't showing.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a controversial favorite bet that I didn't
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: really come to a conclusion on until I finished my
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: research for this division this weekend. But first, quick heads
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: up to anybody playing fantasy football this season. The ultimate
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• 29:54
  Speaker 1: All right, Miami, As I said, Division seven to one,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: Conference thirty five to one, Super Bowl seventy five to
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: one win total seven and a half. I'm telling you, man,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: if Tua is healthy, this is a competitive team, no
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: matter how bad their defense is. Every time you look
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: at the stats for the past few years when he
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: is playing a full season, I know we don't like
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: him as a quarterback. I know we would never put
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: him in a top ten, but he is a top
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: ten quarterback across every single metric. Superficial stats, Advanced metrics,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: anything you look at because of who he is, because
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: of the system he plays in. He is just too
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: good in this offense.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: He is too accurate.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: The offense is too hard to stop on short slants
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: and quick throws in short yardage situation. So everyone is
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: down on them, which screams to me, give me the
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: over seven and a half.
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: I get it, I get it.
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: I know some people that have taken positions on this
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: because of what you've just talked about. This team is
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: different with two, and you know that's that's the question
• 31:08
  Speaker 5: here is can you stay healthy? And I don't think
• 31:11
  Speaker 5: he can chad the guys. He just doesn't know how to
• 31:15
  Speaker 5: take these hits. And even though you know he might
• 31:18
  Speaker 5: dodge the head injuries and it might be something else,
• 31:20
  Speaker 5: he just seems brittle.
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: And you know that one year.
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: I think we both get sucked into it because they
• 31:26
  Speaker 5: were so incredibly dominant that one year. And I hate
• 31:31
  Speaker 5: everything about this team. You probably are right, like maybe
• 31:33
  Speaker 5: I'm getting sucked into it, but like the two and noise,
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: like everyone's finally getting tired of the McDaniels.
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: Bullshit, Like why are we all here? What is death?
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: Is?
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: This? Death is just are we in a black hole.
• 31:45
  Speaker 5: It's like, dude, you're a fucking football coach man, Like,
• 31:49
  Speaker 5: if you're winning, it's funny when you're just one and
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: done every year and you may be back through into
• 31:54
  Speaker 5: the playoffs and you get your asses smoked by a
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: real contender. It's just it gets old pretty quick. And
• 32:01
  Speaker 5: that's my fear with them is up their windows legit closed.
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: And you know they might have, you know, one of
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: the best front sevens in defense, but the back end
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: is a fercious, horrible, horrible secondary and they've already had
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: a couple injuries in the preseason to that secondary. So
• 32:18
  Speaker 5: it's I'm one of those people. I'm with the general public.
• 32:21
  Speaker 5: I'm just so down on this team. But once again,
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: they're like the Patriots. I'm not touching the win tot
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: because of the quarterback, where if he is healthy like
• 32:29
  Speaker 5: you're talking about, they'll get the ten wins.
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: Like Tua.
• 32:32
  Speaker 5: He puts up the numbers, and they have a defense
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: that can steal them some games at certain spots.
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: So again, I.
• 32:39
  Speaker 5: Could see it happen, like I could see them being
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: better than the Patriots and obviously better than the Jets
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: because they have a legit quarterback that we've seen do
• 32:46
  Speaker 5: it and in all sences the system that you know
• 32:49
  Speaker 5: there is one of the best running styles in all football.
• 32:51
  Speaker 5: Like as much as I like to give that coach,
• 32:53
  Speaker 5: he knows how to scheme it up like they are great.
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: I mean not in the red zone.
• 32:56
  Speaker 5: I know, we all know they're like the thirty second
• 32:58
  Speaker 5: or thirty first team to come are running the red zone,
• 33:01
  Speaker 5: but everywhere else they're really talented. So you know, between
• 33:05
  Speaker 5: a chan Waddle and Tyreek, if Tyreek gets head of
• 33:08
  Speaker 5: as asked, that's that's a really great offense when it's
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: ran by Tuus. So I get why you love it.
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: Chat.
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: I'm not gonna not gonna show in your bet. I'm
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: just I'm stuck on it where it's like my model
• 33:18
  Speaker 5: is like you, it hasn't met nine wins, And usually
• 33:20
  Speaker 5: I would slam that like a game and a half.
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: I want to be all over that, but I'm just
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: so scared of Tua, like everything about him, Like I
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: know he's got the weakend and I feel like he's
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: got a brittle body. It's just it's not the right
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: mix to me for betting these win totals with a
• 33:33
  Speaker 5: quarterback like that.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: If he's healthy, they play the Jets twice, they play
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: the Browns, and they play the Saints. My supposition, my bet,
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: for lack of a better term, can they find four
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: other wins in thirteen games? So it's like you said,
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: the key the key component here is do you believe
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: to uh will.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: Be healthy.
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: And you cannot stay healthy.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: The key component for the Bills is do you believe
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: their defense can improve enough to help Josh Allen? When
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: it really matters. I tend to believe the Bills defense
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: cannot improve enough to help Josh Allen. You tend to
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: believe it can. I tend to believe to it can
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: be healthy. You tend to believe he can. And that
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: is the difference right now between our opinions on both
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: of these bets, in which we are basically fifty one
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: forty nine right and I'm leaning into a being healthy
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: because I don't think anyone wants to make this bet.
• 34:44
  Speaker 5: People have the like I told you, like the the
• 34:47
  Speaker 5: public is totally out and the media is toy.
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: But the wise guys, the wise guys are.
• 34:51
  Speaker 5: Taking position on them because they're like you, they think
• 34:53
  Speaker 5: it's been an undervalued team.
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: I'm a fucking wise guy.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: I don't even need to know what you're talking about
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: and what you're hearing to know that the Dolphins with
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: everyone hitting on them, and what two his stats have
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: been when he's healthy to know over seven and a
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: half is the right side.
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: But told you the why guys are on all these
• 35:11
  Speaker 5: fucking teams like they like the Patriots too.
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: That's why. Yeah, we're about to get to this.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: Guys don't know anything.
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: This is the team was talking about the Jets.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about the Jets.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: Let's get to them as long as we can recognize
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: that I'm on the right side as the wise guys
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: with the Dolphins, Jets.
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: Your gambler, who bets on the Jets? Who have you
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: not learned anything about.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: Betting the Jets are gonna come back fourteen to one,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: the win to win the division conference, seventy five to one,
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl two hundred to one win total five and
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: a half. So it's true. It's really tricky, right because
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: there's not a lot of reason to be optimistic about
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: the Jets. And this is part bias and part thinking.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: It's bias for me in terms of how I feel
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: about defensive stats when it comes to betting. I think
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: they're vitally important, and I oftentimes think that they are
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: undervalued in creating a point spread and in how bookmakers
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: look at them and how fans look at defensive stats,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: especially things that the Jets have proven to be good.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: At when they had good coaching.
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: They've got a dominant defensive tackle in Quinn Williams, they
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: have a potentially dominant corner in Saucegardner. There is always
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: sneaky upside from this defense. For me, it was a
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: very good defense when Robert Salo was coaching it, and
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: then it creatored I like what Aaron Glenn did with
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: the Lions when they had nobody because everybody was injured.
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: So those are the positives to me.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: But I'm not going to make a bet on anything
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: regarding this team because their offense is just so bad.
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: I'm I'm drinking the kool aid. I can't believe it.
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: And it was funny.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: I was, dude.
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: I know, I've been trying to fight it off, but
• 37:09
  Speaker 5: I've been just buying so many shares all summer in
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: fantasy football of Justin Fields, and I needed to see
• 37:16
  Speaker 5: one minute of him in preseason running that touchdown to
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: be like, this is the vision. This is the vision
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: of the stupid ass team getting to eight wins, eight
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: and nine somehow with Aaron Glenn, because I do believe
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: in him as a coach man, Like that Detroit defense
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: was held the game held together with bubble gum and bullshit.
• 37:33
  Speaker 4: I don't know how they function.
• 37:36
  Speaker 5: That line's defense could not believe it. They were the
• 37:38
  Speaker 5: one seed, like he held it together. His coaching is
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: so good, like his schemes, his adjustments.
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: Again, you were talking about it. Maybe there was some
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: dude in.
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: The background that's giving him all this data. But Aaron
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: Glenn everything I'm reading.
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: I love the.
• 37:54
  Speaker 5: Way he talks to his team, how the guys talk
• 37:57
  Speaker 5: about him.
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: You know, we'll see this.
• 38:00
  Speaker 5: But it's like, five and a half wins in this
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: division feels very, very dangerously low, Like this is should
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: be six and a half, seven and a half for
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: a team that, in my mind is no different than
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: that Patriots team or this Miami team, where it's like
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: if Justin Field's with all this potential, Like again, this guy,
• 38:21
  Speaker 5: I know, Bear fans don't want to hear it because
• 38:23
  Speaker 5: he was a loser and he just could not win
• 38:25
  Speaker 5: any of these games. But he was like a top three,
• 38:29
  Speaker 5: top four running quarterback in the league. Like his level
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: of athletic talent, that was never the question. The question
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: was can he become a pocket passer? And I feel
• 38:38
  Speaker 5: like we have our answer there. He is not a
• 38:40
  Speaker 5: pocket passer. So if they go into it being honest
• 38:44
  Speaker 5: with him and he's being honest with himself, this team
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: has an obsane amount of upside because what you just
• 38:48
  Speaker 5: talked about, Chad, you have the D line, you have
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: half of the field locked down. If Sauce can because
• 38:55
  Speaker 5: to me, Sauce fall off the cliff last year and
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: I don't know if that was him being you know,
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: off the field distract he just didn't care because no
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: one else in the team cared. But if you if
• 39:03
  Speaker 5: he can be what he was his first year in
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: the league and be a shutdown corner, that's a huge
• 39:08
  Speaker 5: deal for this defense, Like that's that can change the
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: whole identity because Aaron Glenz never had that type of talent.
• 39:13
  Speaker 5: I mean, again, they had some of the best safeties
• 39:15
  Speaker 5: on football in Detroit, and but they didn't really have
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: great cornerbacks. Like they had so many injuries across the board,
• 39:19
  Speaker 5: so yeah, I just I can't even believe it was
• 39:23
  Speaker 5: five and a half, and I hate that.
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: I loved it right away.
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: And I knew my model was gonna love it because
• 39:28
  Speaker 5: of what you just talked about it. Like, I'm so school,
• 39:31
  Speaker 5: I'm so skewed to defenses and the way the league
• 39:34
  Speaker 5: has gone with these running quarterbacks, like they just having
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: a guy that can get you a first down with
• 39:38
  Speaker 5: his legs on third or fourth down. It's become the
• 39:41
  Speaker 5: cheek coot. I mean, we're seeing it in this preseason chat.
• 39:43
  Speaker 5: We keep talking about these kickoffs overs are fourteen to two.
• 39:46
  Speaker 5: I believe in this preseason it's changed. The game has changed.
• 39:50
  Speaker 5: Starting at your own thirty five, start your own forty
• 39:53
  Speaker 5: has changed the game. And that's why Justin Fields, if
• 39:56
  Speaker 5: he can be true with himself and realize he's not
• 39:58
  Speaker 5: a pocket quarterback, they need to keep keep him either
• 40:00
  Speaker 5: moving outside the pocket or you know, doing these Reid options.
• 40:05
  Speaker 5: That's gonna be the key to success for this Jets team.
• 40:07
  Speaker 5: So yeah, they're They're a team I love because it's
• 40:10
  Speaker 5: going to be you know, five and a half. You're
• 40:13
  Speaker 5: never out of this bet. If you have two wins
• 40:16
  Speaker 5: with six weeks to go, you can lie to yourself
• 40:18
  Speaker 5: and be like this Jets team they can sneak they
• 40:21
  Speaker 5: can sneak out a couple wins here end the season.
• 40:23
  Speaker 5: Get me over this five and a half. So I'm
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: shocked on another one. It's like they're just they everything
• 40:29
  Speaker 5: about them, new coach, the new coach bump. Everyone's given
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: it to the Patriots, but no one's giving it to
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: this Jets team at all. I think that's interesting where
• 40:37
  Speaker 5: it's like Aaron Glenn Man, he's he's not that different
• 40:40
  Speaker 5: than Raverle in some aspects of his motivator of men.
• 40:43
  Speaker 5: But I get where you're coming from because we've seen
• 40:45
  Speaker 5: Brabel do it. We've never seen Aaron Glenn do it.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: Well, that's exactly why, Hey, we haven't seen we haven't
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: seen Glenn do it as a head coach, like you
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: loved what I saw with the Lions, like you totally
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: lean into defense, usually leaning to defense, especially when I
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: think there's value in the win total. And I don't
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: think that's being accounted for. I think the bookmakers are
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: seeing the public and saying it's the Jets.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: It's Justin Field's on his third team. He's a wash out.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: He can't throw, and it's a whiny fan base and
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: everyone is thinking Aaron Rodgers is gone. This team can't
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: get out of its own way. They're gonna be losers, right.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: So I totally think there's value on the five and
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: a half. I just didn't jump on it because Aaron
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: Glenn is a defensive coach. That's where I think he
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: will really put his stamp. I don't know what they're
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: gonna do offensively, and even if they do do well offensively,
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: Justin Fields as a running quarterback cannot finish a season.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: You know, we talk about Tua, right, it's the same
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: thing with Justin Fields.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: Last year.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: Justin Fields was great with the Steelers, but he didn't
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: finish with the Steelers.
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: And that was an injuries. That was Tomlin and I
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: promise he made a promise, Russell.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: Wilson promise, but also a little bit of the Steelers
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: were winning.
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: But despite Justin Fields.
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: I know who you're coming from by Justin Fields.
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: But yeah, he wasn't hurting them either though, like he
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: went five and two or something.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: We are we saying that the model for the Jets
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: now is what the Steelers did last year, only we
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: think it can extend over the course of a season.
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: At least to me, Pittsburgh was saying to him, don't
• 42:27
  Speaker 5: don't let us lose because of you. So they were
• 42:29
  Speaker 5: really pulling it back where Aaron Glenn's like apparently being
• 42:32
  Speaker 5: like all blown smoke up his ass, being like, you're
• 42:35
  Speaker 5: one of the top guys.
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: We're gonna release you. We're not going to try to
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: contain you.
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: We want you to be one of these guys that's
• 42:41
  Speaker 5: you know, slinging it, running around with it. So again,
• 42:45
  Speaker 5: I think they're totally from the viewpoint of they'd be happy.
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: The Jets.
• 42:48
  Speaker 5: I think if they went you know, three and fourteen,
• 42:51
  Speaker 5: but if they can if they can unlock something here
• 42:54
  Speaker 5: and justin fields, the right the game of a two
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: year deal, I believe if they can get to eight
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: nine wins, that's that's something to built on go head
• 43:00
  Speaker 5: into next year. So that's that's my hesitation here where
• 43:02
  Speaker 5: it's like I totally get where you're coming from, just
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: in fields and injuries and everything like that. It's just
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: when a new coach comes in you have a defense.
• 43:12
  Speaker 5: I usually I drink the kool aid on those type of.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: Teams, all right.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Simon's favorite division bet is the Buffalo Bills over eleven
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: and a half. Mine is Miami over seven and a half.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: He also likes the Jets over five and a half.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: I probably could be convinced to join him on that enthusiastically,
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: but we're not going to jump in on the New
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: England Patriots. The Favorites will return with our next episode
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page when we talk
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: NFC East. Also go subscribe at Real Chad Noman. Get
• 43:48
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• 43:51
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• 43:54
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• 43:57
  Speaker 1: Until next time, Love you.
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