Latest / Decision Desk HQ Podcast / Episode 3: Jumping into Jersey with Steve Kornacki

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Episode 3: Jumping into Jersey with Steve Kornacki · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

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  NewJerseyswung10pointsfromBidenwinningitbyabout16toKamalaHarris
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  SPEAKER_01: winning it by about six.
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  SPEAKER_01: So it's the hope that people are fed up with Murphy.
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  SPEAKER_01: They almost threw him out in 2021.
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  SPEAKER_01: They're fed up a bit with kind of old Democratic rule in trend.
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  Are they going to be willing to vote for Ciattarelli with Trump in office?
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  SPEAKER_01: And that seems to be a huge question.
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  SPEAKER_01: Part of me wonders,
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  SPEAKER_01: though,
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  if we end up looking back at this gubernatorial campaign and saying the
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  singlemost
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  important event in the 2025 New Jersey governor's race was the election in
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  2024.
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  SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
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  SPEAKER_02: Welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
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  SPEAKER_02: I'm your host, Geoffrey Skelley, the chief elections analyst at DDHQ.
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  Two states,
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  New Jersey and Virginia,
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  have gubernatorial elections in now less than two weeks.
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  SPEAKER_02: We covered Virginia in our last episode of the podcast.
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  SPEAKER_02: So this time around,
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  SPEAKER_02: we'll take a look at the Garden State,
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  which might have the closer of the two governor's contests as things are
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  shaping
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  SPEAKER_02: up.
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  The New Jersey race features a matchup between Democratic Representative
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  Mikie
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  SPEAKER_02: Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli,
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  SPEAKER_02: who's a former state assemblyman and who also ran a very close race,
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  but lost in the 2021 gubernatorial election to Democratic Governor Phil
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  Murphyin
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  SPEAKER_02: New Jersey.
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  And Murphy is term limited and heading out of office and so got an open seat
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  race in New Jersey.
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  SPEAKER_02: So New Jersey's a blue leading state,
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  SPEAKER_02: and Sherrill does lead in the polls,
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  SPEAKER_02: but as we'll discuss,
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  SPEAKER_02: Ciattarelli definitely has a path to victory.
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  SPEAKER_02: And to talk about the Garden State with me,
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  SPEAKER_02: I'm excited to welcome Steve Kornacki,
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  SPEAKER_02: who probably needs no introduction for devoted election watchers.
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  Steve is NBC News' chief data analyst and a national political
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  correspondent.
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  SPEAKER_02: If you've watched election night coverage,
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  you have probably seen Steve at the big board pointing out numbers and trends
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  on
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  SPEAKER_02: maps as the votes come in.
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  He's also the author of The Red and the Blue,
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  1990s and the Birth of Political Tribalism.
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  SPEAKER_02: which I think I actually have a copy right there.
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  SPEAKER_02: It's quite good.
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  It's an excellent overview of how the politics of that period kind of played
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  out
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  and how they laid the foundation for a lot of the divisiveness we see today.
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  But some viewers and listeners may not know that Steve got his start in
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  political
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  SPEAKER_02: journalism covering New Jersey.
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  He wrote for a site called politicsnj.com in the early 2000s and hosted a
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  political
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  SPEAKER_02: news segment on News 12 New Jersey.
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  SPEAKER_02: So I thought he'd be the perfect person
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  to come on and talk about what's going on in this highly competitive
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  gubernatorial race.
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  SPEAKER_02: So Steve, thank you so much for being here.
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  SPEAKER_02: Really appreciate you taking the time.
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  SPEAKER_01: Geoffrey, I'm happy to.
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  SPEAKER_01: And no, I never get tired of talking Jersey, so this would be great.
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  SPEAKER_02: Perfect.
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  SPEAKER_02: Well, see, I knew you'd be perfect.
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  SPEAKER_02: So to start out,
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  Ithoughtwewouldsortofsetthesceneforviewersandlistenersbytalkinga
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  little bit about where the New Jersey race stands here with less than two
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  weeksto
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  SPEAKER_02: go,
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  and then dig into some of the sort of recent electoral trends and how they
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  could
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  SPEAKER_02: influence how this race between Sherrill and Ciattarelli
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  SPEAKER_02: plays out.
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  SPEAKER_02: And so I guess just to start out,
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  IthoughtI'daskyousortofwhatyourcurrenttakeontheraceisatthis
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  SPEAKER_02: juncture.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no, I mean, I think you set it up.
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  SPEAKER_01: There's a path, and we'll talk about it.
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  SPEAKER_01: There's a path that could be there for Ciattarelli,
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  SPEAKER_01: and I think both parties have been very aware of that.
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  SPEAKER_01: I guess the one thing I would say is just this is the less...
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  data driven,
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  more sort of what I hear from people on both sides in New Jersey take on it.
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  SPEAKER_01: And I would just say that I've noticed in the last,
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  SPEAKER_01: I'd say week to 10 days,
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  abitofashifttherewhereIthinkDemocratshavegrownmoreconfidentandI
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  SPEAKER_01: think Republicans have grown less confident.
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  SPEAKER_01: I think each side was very aware,
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  SPEAKER_01: given the shift in the state in 24 toward Trump,
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  SPEAKER_01: given the near miss in 21 for Ciattarelli,
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  SPEAKER_01: and given Murphy's low approval rating,
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  was aware of this potential that's existed there on paper for Ciattarelli.
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  And I think the public polling and it would seem the polling from each party
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  that
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  they're responding to is now sort of telling them that that maybe
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  Ciattarelliisnot
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  SPEAKER_01: realizing that potential.
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  SPEAKER_01: But again, that's that's poll driven, I think, from them.
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  SPEAKER_01: And polls were wrong in Jersey in '21.
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  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see.
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  SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
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  SPEAKER_02: I just brought up for those viewing,
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  SPEAKER_02: I brought up the New Jersey polling average from Decision Desk HQ.
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  SPEAKER_02: And in our average,
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  Mikie Sherrill leads by just a hair over four percentage points over
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  Ciattarelli.
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  SPEAKER_02: But you do,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: as you sometimes see in polling,
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  SPEAKER_02: you see,
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  SPEAKER_02: in fact,
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  SPEAKER_02: actually,
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  SPEAKER_02: it's a little reassuring when you see it,
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  SPEAKER_02: because if all the pollsters are showing the same thing.
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  SPEAKER_02: And they're hurting.
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  SPEAKER_02: It might make you a little suspicious.
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  But I would say that pollsters aren't really hurting in New Jersey because it
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  seems
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  like we've sort of seen a range of polls that have shown it from anything as
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  close
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  as tied from from a Republican pollster to Sherrill even having close to a
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  double
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  SPEAKER_02: digit lead in some of the recent surveys.
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  SPEAKER_02: So kind of,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  that I think sort of illustrates the range of where this race might end up.
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  SPEAKER_02: And perhaps that's kind of a helpful thing for thinking about it.
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  And I wanted to point out that you mentioned New Jersey's swing to the right.
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  AndIthoughtmaybethatwouldbeagoodplacetosortofstarttalkingabout
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  What could go into what the things we want to watch on election night are,
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  SPEAKER_02: what the what the trends are in New Jersey and why it was really notable.
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  Itswungahugeamounttotherightinin2024inthepresidentialraceand
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  SPEAKER_02: actually the second most by margin,
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  SPEAKER_02: second only to New York.
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  SPEAKER_02: It swung New Jersey swung 10 points from Biden winning it by about 16.
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  SPEAKER_02: to Kamala Harris winning it by about six in 2024,
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  and only New York swinging 10.5 points in between those two elections swung
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  tothe
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  SPEAKER_02: right more.
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  SPEAKER_02: And I guess I know you've written a lot about this,
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  and I wanted to hear your thoughts on what contributed to this and how you
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  thinkit
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  SPEAKER_02: could play into this matchup.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_01: I think what's striking about those those Trump gains,
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  SPEAKER_01: it's not just in New Jersey on there,
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  SPEAKER_01: but to look at New Jersey,
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  it's how concentrated those gains were among nonwhite voters and in
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  traditionally
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  SPEAKER_01: Democratic areas of the state.
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  SPEAKER_01: Trump and Ciattarelli both exceeded expectations.
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  SPEAKER_01: Ciattarelli in 2021 in his gubernatorial campaign, Trump in 2024.
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  SPEAKER_01: But they exceeded those expectations with completely different voters,
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  SPEAKER_01: almost completely different voters.
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  SPEAKER_01: And in 2024, you just see it with Trump.
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  It's non-white voters sort of across the board,
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  especially Hispanic voters.
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  SPEAKER_01: His gains were the most pronounced in heavily Hispanic areas.
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  Asian-Americans were sort of his second most significant,
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  substantial gains.
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  And he did make gains with with black voters in heavily black areas,
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  but not as not as dramatic.
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  But but basically anywhere where that nonwhite population starts to go up in
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  New
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  SPEAKER_01: Jersey,
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  SPEAKER_01: you saw you see red there,
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  SPEAKER_01: red trending away from Democrats toward Trump.
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  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I brought up a map here of northern New Jersey.
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  I zoomed in and basically showing the shifts by in every municipality in New
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  Jersey
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  SPEAKER_02: from 2020 to 2024.
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  And it's so striking to see a part of the state that is very much reliably blue.
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  SPEAKER_02: have such dramatic swings.
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  SPEAKER_02: Now,
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  SPEAKER_02: a lot of these places still voted Democratic overall,
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  SPEAKER_02: but it was a question of,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: Paterson is maybe the most incredible case,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: a place that's about 65,
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  SPEAKER_02: 60,
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  65 percent Hispanic.
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  SPEAKER_02: Patterson was Biden wanted by about 61 percent.
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  SPEAKER_02: But Harris only won it by about 28,
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  SPEAKER_02: so it still went Democratic,
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  SPEAKER_02: but that is a huge shift in margin for one election.
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  SPEAKER_02: And so,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: other places like Elizabeth City,
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  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_02: a lot of these,
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  SPEAKER_02: as you said,
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  SPEAKER_02: were heavily Hispanic.
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  SPEAKER_02: And actually,
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  IhaveatablethatyouputtogetherforanarticleofyoursthatIthoughtwas
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  SPEAKER_02: sort of helpful.
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  SPEAKER_02: I just didn't...
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  SPEAKER_02: I could see Elizabeth right there, 67% Hispanic.
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  SPEAKER_02: Paterson is there, 63% Hispanic.
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  SPEAKER_02: Just these huge swings to the right for the GOP.
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  SPEAKER_02: And I guess we saw that nationally.
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  ButIguesswhenyou'rethinkingaboutplaceslikeNewJerseyandNewYorkand
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  SPEAKER_02: California,
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  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
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  how does this in a way maybe change the political calculations for the GOP?
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  SPEAKER_02: And you can limit that to New Jersey since we're talking about Jersey.
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  SPEAKER_01: Oh, I mean, the opportunity there for Republicans.
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  SPEAKER_01: Now, this could be fool's gold.
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  This may be something that only happens for Donald Trump and no other
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  Republican.
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  SPEAKER_01: That's that's the big question here.
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  SPEAKER_01: But the the the mathematical impact of these kinds of gains.
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  SPEAKER_01: Give you an example.
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  SPEAKER_01: By the way, we say most of those were still Democratic.
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  SPEAKER_01: Like Passaic, you see there, that's Passaic City, not Passaic County.
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  SPEAKER_01: So people can see Trump actually won that.
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  SPEAKER_01: He won it outright.
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  And those gains too,
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  like they were most dramatic for him between 20 and 24.
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  He'd already started to make some gains between 16 and 20 in these places too.
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  SPEAKER_01: So if you,
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  SPEAKER_01: if you extended further and did an eight year trend,
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_01: these shifts are even more seismic,
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  SPEAKER_01: but to put it in some perspective,
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  We said that Ciattarelli and Trump performed well with different types of
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  votersin
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  SPEAKER_01: their two campaigns.
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  SPEAKER_01: If you took that 2021 loss for Jack Ciattarelli to Phil Murphy,
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  SPEAKER_01: Cittarelli lost the state by just over three points.
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  IfyousimplygavehimTrump'svoteshareineachofthesecitiesthatyou're
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  SPEAKER_01: looking at right here,
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  SPEAKER_01: if you did that,
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  SPEAKER_01: he basically wipes away his statewide margin of defeat.
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  SPEAKER_01: It comes down to 6400 votes,
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  SPEAKER_01: I think,
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  SPEAKER_01: two-tenths of a point,
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  SPEAKER_01: something something along those lines.
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  SPEAKER_01: So just by giving.
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  SPEAKER_01: The Trump share in majority non-white parts of New Jersey,
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  if Ciattarelli could realize those gains and then just do everything else he
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  didin
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  SPEAKER_01: 2021,
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  SPEAKER_01: the race is basically a tie at that point.
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  SPEAKER_01: So it's that big of an impact.
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  SPEAKER_01: But again,
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  the first Republican not named Donald Trump who does the next Republican not
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  named
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  SPEAKER_01: Donald Trump who does this will be the first,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know.
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  SPEAKER_02: Yes.
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  SPEAKER_02: And that is obviously the many,
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  SPEAKER_02: many millions of dollars question,
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  SPEAKER_02: because,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: if New Jersey is competitive,
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  SPEAKER_02: oh,
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  SPEAKER_02: boy,
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  SPEAKER_02: we're going to get all kinds of ad spending in a presidential cycle.
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  But I but I you know,
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  youweretalkingaboutsortofthedifferencesbetweenhowCiattarelli
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  SPEAKER_02: And Trump reformed.
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  AndIhaveamapofthisthatIthinkisreallytellingwhereyouseethatthis
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  SPEAKER_02: area of sort of North Jersey around the much more sort of dense,
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  SPEAKER_02: more blue collar,
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  more more ethnically and racially diverse areas of of northern New Jersey.
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  SPEAKER_02: Zoom in here for people who can.
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  SPEAKER_02: And,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: places like Paterson,
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  SPEAKER_02: Newark,
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  SPEAKER_02: Jersey City,
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  these are all places where Trump did markedly better than Jack Ciattarelli
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  didin
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  SPEAKER_02: 2021.
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  Whereas Ciattarelli maybe had a little bit more of the older Republican
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  coalition.
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  SPEAKER_02: And maybe that makes sense.
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  We could talk a little bit about Ciattarelli's background and like how how
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  whyhe
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  stillmayholdsomeappealtoacertaintypeofvoterwhoincertaincaseshas
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  SPEAKER_02: shifted away from the GOP,
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  SPEAKER_02: at least at least in presidential elections in recent times.
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  SPEAKER_02: But Ciattarelli did much better out in the suburbs,
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  SPEAKER_02: the exurbs,
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  SPEAKER_02: more rural parts of New Jersey,
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  SPEAKER_02: Western New Jersey,
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  SPEAKER_02: if you're sort of looking at the northern part.
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  SPEAKER_02: And if you zoom in on all these more denser parts,
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  SPEAKER_02: the more urban parts,
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  SPEAKER_02: Trump clearly does a lot better than Ciattarelli did.
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  SPEAKER_02: And it's just interesting to see this.
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  SPEAKER_02: Now,
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  SPEAKER_02: obviously,
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  SPEAKER_02: a presidential cycle and a gubernatorial cycle,
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  SPEAKER_02: you are talking about two somewhat different electorates.
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  SPEAKER_02: Obviously, the number of people who show up for a gubernatorial election
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  SPEAKER_02: is notably smaller than for a presidential.
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  SPEAKER_02: But nonetheless,
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  to see just some really dramatic differences in the coalitions for the same,
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  SPEAKER_02: ostensibly the same party,
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  SPEAKER_02: right,
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  SPEAKER_02: is a fascinating thing to see,
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  SPEAKER_02: especially when both races were relatively close.
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  SPEAKER_02: It's not like one was so dramatically different than the other.
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  You're talking about six point loss for Trump,
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  three point or so loss for Ciattarelli.
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  SPEAKER_02: And I know that you specifically highlighted to me Morris County,
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  SPEAKER_02: which is sort of up here west of Paterson,
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  SPEAKER_02: west of the Passaic and Newark areas,
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  as an interesting test case for sort of thinking about how Ciattarelli did
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  in2021
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  and what he needs to do again in 2025 while also taking advantage of some of
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  these
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  SPEAKER_02: changes that Trump was able to bring about.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Morris is interesting and I think key for a couple of reasons.
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_01: it is where,
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  SPEAKER_01: to put it in some perspective,
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  SPEAKER_01: back in 2020,
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  SPEAKER_01: Biden carried Morris by four points over Trump.
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  In 2021,
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  this is one of those places that you're saying where Ciattarelli did so much
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  better.
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  Ciattarelli won it by double digits in 2021 over Phil Murphy by 11 points.
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  And then last year,
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  Trump did win it,
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  but it came all the way back down to three points.
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  SPEAKER_01: And this is the key type of voter.
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  SPEAKER_01: And so here you go.
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  SPEAKER_01: You're looking at the municipalities here inside of Morris County.
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  SPEAKER_01: Now, there's sort of a range here of the types of towns that are here.
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  SPEAKER_01: There's some genuine sort of blue collar, you know, middle class towns.
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  And then there are some quintessentially sort of wealthy suburban enclaves
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  likea
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: lot of people associate with New Jersey.
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  SPEAKER_01: Give you a couple to take a look at here.
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  SPEAKER_01: A good one is Mendham.
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  SPEAKER_01: I think it's row 21 right there.
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  SPEAKER_01: Okay, this is actually where Chris Christie is from.
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  SPEAKER_02: The borough or the township?
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  SPEAKER_02: The borough.
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  SPEAKER_02: I think you meant the borough.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  Well,
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  you could look at either one of them because you'll see the same trend here.
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  SPEAKER_01: Take a look,
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  SPEAKER_01: the median household income there,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: 250,
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  SPEAKER_01: 223,000,
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  SPEAKER_01: get a high median income there.
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  These are heavily white,
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  you know,
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  huge concentration of college educated white voters.
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  SPEAKER_01: We've talked about these being sort of Trump phobic voters nationally,
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  SPEAKER_01: that that cohort that's moved far away from Trump.
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  SPEAKER_01: So here you go.
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  SPEAKER_01: Trump lost both the borough and the township.
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  SPEAKER_01: He lost them both in 20.
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  SPEAKER_01: Ciattarelli,
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  SPEAKER_01: almost 15,
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  SPEAKER_01: 20-point improvement over Trump,
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  SPEAKER_01: net improvement in 2021,
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  SPEAKER_01: and snaps all the way back in 2024.
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  SPEAKER_01: Harris winning those basically by the same margin that Joe Biden did.
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  SPEAKER_01: And there are places like this all over North Jersey,
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  SPEAKER_01: Morris County,
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  SPEAKER_01: even in the Philadelphia suburbs,
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  SPEAKER_01: you find places like this all over New Jersey.
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  SPEAKER_01: These are the kinds of places where
• 14:56
  I think Ciattarelli's got his biggest challenge on Election Day because in
• 14:56
  2021,
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: Trump was no longer president.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: Nobody knew what was coming.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, some people figured he was running again.
• 15:06
  But I think a lot of voters had kind of priced Trump out of the equation in 21.
• 15:12
  And I think it opened the door for Ciattarelli in places like this to win back
• 15:16
  those
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: suburban voters who they're not nuts about the Democrats in Trenton.
• 15:21
  They're not nuts about high taxes,
• 15:23
  worry about property taxes,
• 15:24
  this kind of thing.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: They do not like Donald Trump.
• 15:27
  And in a what they may have thought at the time was a post-Trump environment,
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_01: these voters were comfortable going with Ciattarelli in 21.
• 15:34
  You can see that their opinion of Trump didn't change at all as evidenced by
• 15:34
  2024.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: And so this is the question.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: Trump's back in the White House.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_01: Can Ciattarelli get those numbers again?
• 15:43
  Becausehehastogetthosenumbersandarguablymaybeevenimproveonthema
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: little bit if he wants to actually win this thing.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_01: So those are the kinds of places that that I'm going to be looking at.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: And the added challenge when I say Morris is so key.
• 15:55
  The added challenge here for Ciattarelli is this is the area that Mikie
• 16:00
  Sherrill
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_01: represents in Congress.
• 16:02
  So it's this traditionally Republican area that's moved away from
• 16:06
  Republicans because of Trump.
• 16:08
  That also during that period,
• 16:10
  Sherrill was able to win a congressional seat.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_01: Can Ciattarelli win a Mendham borough by 12 points, the township by nine?
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_01: Can he do that again?
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_01: I'm looking for that on election night.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
• 16:21
  we've talked about Trump having a somewhat different coalition than
• 16:27
  Ciattarelli did
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_02: in 2021.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_02: And I do think,
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_02: to your point earlier,
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_02: I wanted to actually make mention of this,
• 16:33
  that you could basically take the best Republican performance in 2021 or
• 16:33
  2024,
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_02: whichever was better,
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_02: across every municipality in New Jersey,
• 16:43
  And make that your sort of your threshold and make that like on election
• 16:47
  night,
• 16:48
  if you just had a sheet of those and you were watching the results come in,
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_02: just,
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_02: calculate the difference.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_02: How well is Ciattarelli performing up to those standards?
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_02: Because if he's hitting them,
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_02: he might narrowly win,
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_02: as you were saying,
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_02: talking about even just broadly with places that are majority non-white,
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_02: for instance.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that that's such a fascinating reality.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_02: And I actually I was curious,
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_02: knowing that,
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_02: a lot about New Jersey politics,
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_02: I was kind of curious how you see Jack Ciattarelli in,
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_02: this is a former state assemblyman who predated Trump.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_02: His time in the assembly,
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_02: well,
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_02: overlapped,
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_02: I guess,
• 17:27
  I think toward the end of his time in the assembly was right when Trump came on
• 17:30
  the
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_02: scene.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_02: Initially was not pro-Trump.
• 17:33
  Right.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_02: He has a whole background in politics.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_02: I think he was a county selectman or whatever the supervisor.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not sure what the term is actually in New Jersey in Somerset County,
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_02: which is,
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_02: West,
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_02: not Northern,
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_02: but kind of Central Jersey,
• 17:49
  even though I know there's debate about whether something like Central
• 17:51
  Jersey
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_02: actually exists.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_02: And so I was kind of curious how you see Ciattarelli because he might be
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_02: Strangely,
• 18:00
  I do think that one of the reasons he's even in this position is that he is able
• 18:03
  to
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_02: somewhat straddle.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, sure.
• 18:06
  I'm MAGA with I predate that and I have the sort of more traditional
• 18:11
  Republican
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_02: antecedents that people might look at and feel more comfortable with.
• 18:15
  And maybe that straddling ability is how he got really close in 2021 and maybe
• 18:18
  how
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_02: he still could get close this time around.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_01: look,
• 18:24
  his only chance of winning is people seeing the two sides of him that you're
• 18:27
  kind
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_01: of outlining there.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_01: Because look, you say Somerset County.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 18:32
  Somerset County is everything we were just talking about with Morris
• 18:37
  County,
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_01: with these towns.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Somerset County is wealthy.
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it's Bedminster is in is in Somerset County.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_01: Huge share of college educated, college educated white voters.
• 18:49
  It was the biggest single improvement as a county for Ciattarelli over
• 18:53
  Trump,
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_01: the last time around.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: And then again, it swung all the way back.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty much in 2024.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: So Somerset County is is just a lot like Morris County here.
• 19:05
  And yet Ciattarelli,
• 19:07
  look,
• 19:07
  hekindofcameupinNewJerseypoliticsinapre-Trumperawhenhe
• 19:14
  When the equation just for what it took to succeed as a Republican was very
• 19:17
  different.
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_01: And I think he recognized, you know, he had that near miss in 21.
• 19:22
  He started running for 2025 right away and recognized as Trump kind of
• 19:27
  reasserted
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_01: control of the party.
• 19:28
  And then obviously one recognized that if he was not in Trump's good graces,
• 19:33
  he was likely he was going to lose a Republican primary in 2025 and he wouldn't
• 19:37
  get
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: this chance again.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_01: So.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_01: He really cultivated a Trump endorsement.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_01: And it's just it sets up this this test.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: Can the can the Jack Ciattarelli,
• 19:49
  who really campaigned and politic for Trump's endorsement and really
• 19:54
  celebratedit
• 19:54
  and really advertised it in the Republican primary and isn't running away
• 19:58
  fromit
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: in the fall.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_01: Can a voter in Somerset County,
• 20:04
  can a voter in Morris County who does not like Donald Trump look at that and
• 20:08
  say,
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_01: yeah,
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: I still see the pre-Trump jack?
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: Or do they look at that and they say, I don't want any part of that?
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, thank you.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_02: That's like an excellent point.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_02: Just sort of, you know, what do voters see?
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_02: And I do think there's opportunity for Ciattarelli.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_02: And I want to talk about Sherrill in a second,
• 20:27
  but an opportunity for Ciattarelli in that I thought it was maybe worth
• 20:30
  mentioning
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_02: Murphy,
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_02: Phil Murphy,
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_02: the Democratic governor,
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_02: and the fact that Democrats do control,
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_02: all of government in Trenton.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe how that's playing in for Ciattarelli.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_02: I know he's run ads talking about utility rates.
• 20:44
  While Sherrill is trying to connect Ciattarelli to Trump as much as
• 20:48
  possible,
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_02: you see Ciattarelli obviously trying to connect Sherrill to Murphy.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_02: Murphy's not terribly unpopular,
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_02: but nonetheless,
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_02: he's a second term governor who's not that popular.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_02: And so I was kind of curious about that dynamic.
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_01: look,
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_01: New Jersey has not elected,
• 21:06
  has not given the same party control of the governorship for three straight
• 21:10
  terms
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_01: since like 1961.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_01: So there's a bit of a,
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: the hope for the Ciattarelli campaign is that,
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: Murphy's approval,
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: which depending on the poll you're looking at,
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_01: can be in the high 30s,
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: can be in the low 40s.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_01: It's not better than Donald Trump's in the state.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_01: So it's it's the hope that people are fed up with Murphy.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_01: They almost threw him out in 2021.
• 21:31
  They're fed up a bit with kind of all Democratic rule in Trenton and that they
• 21:38
  look
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_01: at,
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: there is somewhat of a history,
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_01: in states like New Jersey,
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_01: again,
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_01: You saw this a little bit more pre-Trump,
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_01: but,
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_01: states like New Jersey,
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_01: states like Connecticut,
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_01: Massachusetts,
• 21:49
  you had those voters who were sort of culturally moderate suburbanites who
• 21:53
  liked
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_01: having Republican governors to keep an eye on all those Democrats in the
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_01: legislature and,
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:58
  all the Democrats who kind of otherwise would have monopoly on the state
• 22:02
  capitol.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_01: So,
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 22:04
  Ciattarelli isisishopingthatinstinctisstillthereandhe'sstillan
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_01: acceptable he is an acceptable vehicle to that type of voter.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_01: And again,
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just struck by the different...
• 22:16
  It's why this is so fascinating to me because I feel a couple of ways about
• 22:21
  this.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: One,
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: I feel that if Kamala Harris had won last year,
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: I think should really be a shoo-in right now.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_01: And if Murphy...
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_01: were eligible to run for a third term and were seeking a third term,
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_01: I suspect the polling would be tighter than it is right now.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_01: I think the Democrats in some ways,
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_01: the term limit is helping the Democrats because offering up Sherrill,
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_01: who's not connected to Trenton,
• 22:46
  she'samemberofCongresswhowasn'tonthepoliticalscenebeforesheranin
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_01: 2018.
• 22:52
  They're offering up their own sort of,
• 22:54
  here's something new if you're sick of stale,
• 22:56
  Trenton.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_01: At least they're hoping voters will see it that way.
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_01: So I think those are a couple, you know,
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_01: Part of me wonders, we'll see.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_01: Part of me wonders,
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_01: though,
• 23:07
  if we end up looking back at this gubernatorial campaign and saying the
• 23:10
  singlemost
• 23:11
  important event in the 2025 New Jersey governor's race was the election in
• 23:11
  2024.
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_02: I said something,
• 23:18
  or my guest or I said something similar about Winston Earle-Sears's
• 23:22
  situationin
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_02: Virginia in the 2025 gubernatorial race there,
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_02: that basically the moment Donald Trump became president,
• 23:29
  it became extremely difficult for a Republican to win the governorship in
• 23:32
  Virginia.
• 23:33
  New Jersey has some different things going on in terms of the kind of swing we
• 23:36
  saw
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_02: in 2024 was much sharper than in Virginia,
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_02: for instance,
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_02: toward the GOP.
• 23:42
  But the fact of the matter is,
• 23:43
  Jack Ciattarelli would probably have an easier time running...
• 23:46
  running against in an environment where Kamala Harris was president of the
• 23:49
  United States.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_02: It would just be just fundamentally easier.
• 23:52
  The Republican base would be more energized because it would be more upset
• 23:56
  with the status quo.
• 23:57
  Whereas right now you talked about some of those suburban affluent
• 24:01
  communities
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_02: where Ciattarelli did much better than Trump.
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_02: And those voters voting Democratic in the presidential race,
• 24:09
  are they going to be willing to vote for Ciattarelli with Trump in office?
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_02: And that seems to be a huge question.
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_02: I don't want to give Sherrill short shrift here before we close out.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_02: So I was curious about sort of
• 24:20
  It seems to me that Democrats have been sort of lukewarm about her as a
• 24:25
  candidate
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_02: from sort of the get-go,
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_02: or maybe she's sort of underwhelmed.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_02: She obviously has this very impressive biography,
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_02: Naval Academy grad,
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_02: Navy helicopter pilot.
• 24:37
  Andwhat'sinterestingtomeisthatsomethingsthathavepoppedupinthis
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_02: campaign,
• 24:41
  including the fact that she apparently didn't walk at her Naval Academy
• 24:44
  graduation.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_02: I guess I was curious what you've heard or what you...
• 24:48
  What you've taken from this about sort of Sherrill's candidacy and and how
• 24:53
  thisrace
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_02: is maybe closer than Democrats would have liked,
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_02: even if they are feeling a little better than they did a week ago,
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_02: for instance.
• 24:59
  SPEAKER_01: I had a Democrat tell me that Sherrill is losing the campaign,
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_01: but is going to win the election anyway.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's a sense that, you know, she had.
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 25:09
  she won her seat in 2018 in a blue wave year in a district that had been
• 25:14
  Republican
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_01: for a long time.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_01: But it was an open seat.
• 25:16
  The Republican incumbent didn't run for reelection,
• 25:18
  I think,
• 25:19
  sensing what was coming.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_01: So it wasn't that she had an easy race in 2018, but it wasn't.
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 25:27
  a lot of the hard work was kind of done just in terms of the environment being
• 25:30
  set
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_01: for her in 18.
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_01: And since then, she's been fine in terms of getting reelected.
• 25:35
  Ithinkalotofwhatwe'veseeninthelastfewmonthsisshe'sbeingtestedfor
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_01: the first time in a way I don't really think she even was in 2018.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_01: And it surprised some Democrats.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_01: She's had trouble.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_01: There's an ad that the Ciattarelli folks ran.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_01: That I thought was quite effective.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_01: Now,
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_01: maybe the polling is suggesting it wasn't,
• 25:52
  but she was asked on a Sherrill was asked on a an interview show on the CBS
• 25:56
  affiliate
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_01: in New York what the first thing she would do as governor was.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_01: And it was just a sort of stumbling word salad, non answer.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_01: And all the ad was was 30 seconds of just letting her letting her speak.
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_01: Let the interview clip play.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_01: And so I think Democrats have felt,
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 26:15
  she's she's not as impressive as a candidate as I think they thought she was.
• 26:18
  She had the reason she got the nomination was the Democrats around the state
• 26:22
  were
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_01: were convinced.
• 26:23
  Democratic leaders around the state were convinced she was the most
• 26:25
  electable candidate.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: Just based on the suburban background,
• 26:28
  we're talking about Morris County winning in that kind of part of the state,
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_01: having this compelling biography,
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_01: helicopter pilot,
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_01: Navy helicopter pilot,
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_01: all of these things.
• 26:38
  And some of that's been undermined,
• 26:40
  I think,
• 26:40
  to a degree by this campaign.
• 26:42
  The other thing that's notable to me when you talk to Democratic elected
• 26:44
  officials
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_01: in Jersey,
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_01: even those who supported her,
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_01: who have supported her,
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_01: when you ask about how you think she'll do as governor,
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_01: they don't know.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: She has no experience in Trenton.
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_01: Trenton is a very sort of cutthroat, insular political world.
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_01: She didn't come up through it.
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_01: She doesn't have much experience with it.
• 27:04
  And I remember having a conversation with the Democratic elected official
• 27:07
  just
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_01: before the primary who was backing her.
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_01: And I said, you know, how is she going to do in the primary?
• 27:14
  And he said,
• 27:15
  well,
• 27:15
  I think she's going to win,
• 27:17
  but I hope Gottheimer does.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_01: Because Josh Gottheimer,
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_01: the congressman from Bergen County,
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_01: who was also running this elected official,
• 27:24
  feltwasbettersuitedtoTrentonandtothekindofdealmakingthattheNew
• 27:31
  Jersey sort of political class is accustomed to and is not sure that Sherrill
• 27:34
  is.
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_02: Fascinating.
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 27:36
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 27:36
  SPEAKER_02: Gottheimer,
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_02: I know he he also I don't believe has an elected background in Trenton,
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_02: but perhaps as a guy with finance and other things,
• 27:46
  maybe that was part of their thinking from sort of the deal making
• 27:50
  perspective.
• 27:52
  But I guess another thing with Sherrill that I do think is interesting is that
• 27:56
  there
• 27:57
  has even been a little bit of an effort by the Ciattarelli campaign to sort of
• 28:00
  cast
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_02: her Jersey-ness in doubt,
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_02: which I thought was fascinating because Ciattarelli,
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 28:08
  I'm like a lifelong New Jersey resident,
• 28:10
  whereas Sherrill has lived there.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_02: I forget what it is.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, a long time, to be clear.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_02: It's like 15 or 20 years or something.
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_02: So she's been, you know, lived in New Jersey a long time.
• 28:20
  But but I guess coming off of Phil Murphy being having been governor and
• 28:25
  similarly
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_02: was not from originally from New Jersey.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_02: I was curious how much this might matter.
• 28:31
  I mean,
• 28:32
  look,
• 28:32
  New Jersey has a lot of a lot of people in New Jersey who are not from New Jersey.
• 28:36
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 28:36
  SPEAKER_02: obviously,
• 28:37
  it's a highly populated state and that may not be a thing that a lot of people
• 28:40
  get
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_02: hung up on.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_02: But nonetheless,
• 28:43
  it's interesting to me that that's even an angle that the
• 28:45
  Ciattarelli campaignhas
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_02: tried to embrace.
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_02: And I don't know if that has something to do with the fact that
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_02: Ciattarelli is,
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_02: got a kind of classic Italian name,
• 28:53
  even pronounces it as someone who is Italian would pronounce it with the ch
• 28:58
  instead
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_02: of a Ciattarelli,
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_02: anglicized.
• 29:02
  And whereas Sherrill is from sort of the very well-heeled suburbs of New York
• 29:07
  City.
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_02: So I was curious what your thoughts were about that dynamic.
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: I think broadly what they're trying to tap into,
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_01: obviously,
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_01: is just to make the idea that she's inauthentic,
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_01: that it's sort of this manufactured candidacy.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_01: And again, I think what that appeals to potentially is an area where
• 29:29
  Republicanshavebeenshowingmoreandmorestrengthnowaswithbluecollar
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_01: voters,
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_01: blue collar,
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_01: middle class,
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_01: working class voters.
• 29:36
  SPEAKER_01: And they do.
• 29:37
  I think folks who in many cases do have maybe some deeper roots in New Jersey.
• 29:41
  So we talk about the gains that Trump made in in nonwhite areas in North
• 29:45
  Jersey.
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_01: I think another area of
• 29:48
  of a sort of rich pocket for Republicans and an increasingly fertile one for
• 29:53
  them,
• 29:54
  SPEAKER_01: just in general,
• 29:54
  SPEAKER_01: are a lot of these blue collar,
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_01: sort of big blue collar towns,
• 29:59
  SPEAKER_01: a Clifton,
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_01: New Jersey,
• 30:01
  SPEAKER_01: a place like that,
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_01: for instance,
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_01: in Passaic County.
• 30:05
  Trump actually won Passaic County,
• 30:07
  which is,
• 30:07
  you know,
• 30:08
  in the last decade,
• 30:09
  SPEAKER_01: In all the time I've been covering New Jersey,
• 30:11
  it was the idea of a Republican carrying Passaic County is kind of shocking.
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_01: Trump did it.
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_01: He did it with non-white gains and he did it in Wayne,
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_01: New Jersey,
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_01: Clifton,
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_01: New Jersey,
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_01: places like this.
• 30:23
  SPEAKER_02: So again, it's interesting.
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_02: Not to interrupt,
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_02: sorry,
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_02: but it's interesting also because the what is it,
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_02: the Ninth Congressional District,
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_02: Nellie Pou,
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_02: who succeeded Bill Pascrell,
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_02: who was an institution in that district,
• 30:35
  SPEAKER_02: a lot of it is in Passaic and it's a Democratic leaning seat.
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_02: And Trump actually carried it remarkably.
• 30:40
  And so now it's like a swing seat,
• 30:42
  or at least potentially a swing seat,
• 30:44
  which is kind of wild.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_02: But yeah,
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_02: just looking at,
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 30:49
  that'ssortofthisneckofthewoodsonthemapthatIhaverightherewith
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_02: Paterson and Passaic and Clifton,
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_02: as you noted,
• 30:57
  SPEAKER_02: right there.
• 30:58
  SPEAKER_02: Just these really big swings to the right.
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_02: And even to the point where in some of those cases,
• 31:02
  SPEAKER_02: like Clifton,
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_02: Trump actually carried Clifton.
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_02: You know, it didn't stay in the Democratic side of the ledger.
• 31:09
  SPEAKER_02: And and so I guess thinking about Sherrill and her candidacy,
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_02: it's sort of to me,
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_02: and maybe this is a good place to close out.
• 31:18
  SPEAKER_02: It's sort of like Democrats are just desperate to hold serve.
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_02: in a way, to use a sporting analogy.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_02: They know that this is a democratic-leaning state still,
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_02: even after the big shift to the right in 2024.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_02: So if they can just harness enough anti-Trump energy,
• 31:35
  and I think it's worth noting that I saw the New York Times report recently
• 31:39
  that
• 31:40
  SPEAKER_02: the most expensive ad buy in this campaign is
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_02: in terms of an attack ad,
• 31:45
  was one from the group associated with the Democratic Governors
• 31:49
  Association,
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_02: essentially calling Ciattarelli Trump and Trenton,
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_02: or wanting to be like the Trenton's Trump kind of person.
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_02: And that clear tie and that clear effort to make
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_02: Ciattarelli and Trump synonymous, really.
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_02: And I guess looking ahead,
• 32:08
  maybe that doesn't work or maybe that works for Democrats this time around.
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_02: But you do wonder about sort of the long,
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_02: as you said,
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_02: the great unknown is whether another Republican can do what Trump did.
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, that's the thing for, you know, for Ciattarelli.
• 32:22
  SPEAKER_01: I think whatever the outcome of the race is,
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_01: I am curious,
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_01: does he make any of these non-white gains that Trump made?
• 32:31
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_01: because in 2021,
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_01: if you look at these places,
• 32:33
  SPEAKER_01: we're just showing you,
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_01: you're kind of running your cursor near some of them now.
• 32:36
  You know,
• 32:37
  those Hudson County,
• 32:38
  you know,
• 32:39
  places that are 70% plus Hispanic.
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_01: Ciattarelli wasn't making any of these gains.
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_01: The only the only thing in these sort of urban,
• 32:49
  heavily nonwhite parts of New Jersey that Ciattarelli had going for him in 21
• 32:52
  was
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_01: extremely low turnout,
• 32:55
  like kind of shockingly low turnout that even Democrats weren't ready for.
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_01: That's one of the reasons it got close in 21.
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, that's that could happen this time.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_01: But I mean, I'm just curious whether he wins or loses.
• 33:08
  Is he building meaningfully off how he did in 21 in these non-white areas?
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_01: The place to really look for that,
• 33:15
  where Republicans think they've got some life here in terms of party
• 33:20
  registration,
• 33:21
  SPEAKER_01: activation sort of thing,
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_01: is Hudson County.
• 33:23
  SPEAKER_01: You see Jersey City there.
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_01: Jersey City, and those are geographically small, but population dense.
• 33:30
  SPEAKER_01: Union City, North Bergen.
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_01: West New York, places like that.
• 33:35
  SPEAKER_01: Those are places where Republicans think they have some life now.
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_01: And I think as a longer term question for the future of Jersey politics,
• 33:42
  SPEAKER_01: that's one thing I'm going to look at.
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_02: Very cool.
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_02: Well, Steve, I think we'll leave it there.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_02: I really appreciate you coming on and talking about New Jersey with me.
• 33:50
  You've written a lot of great analyses over at NBCNews.com about this race,
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_02: and I highly encourage people to go
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_02: search them out.
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_02: Obviously,
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_02: this is Steve Kornacki,
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_02: National Political Correspondent,
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_02: Chief Data Analyst for NBC News,
• 34:05
  SPEAKER_02: a must-watch on election nights every year.
• 34:08
  And Steve,
• 34:09
  thank you again for taking the time to come on and talk about New Jersey with
• 34:12
  me.
• 34:13
  SPEAKER_02: No, no problem, Geoffrey.
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_01: This was fun.
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks.
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_02: Hey, thanks so much.