Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 136 - 10/8/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 136 - 10/8/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 136 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Appelbaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:34
Happy Tuesday. Our work week rolls on and we
0:38
got a lot to get to on today's podcast.
0:40
I have a three pack of sweats for you guys and we're going to
0:43
just walk through the garden and I walk through the buffet
0:46
because we got multiple sports going on right now.
0:48
I have a play for you in one of the Major League Baseball
0:51
playoff games for today. I also have a bet for you in
0:53
college football. I ready tweet that I believe for
0:57
the next like 47 days or something like that, there's
1:00
going to be a football game every single day.
1:01
So we're treated to a nice little surprise with Liberty and
1:05
FIU for tonight and I have a play on that game and you might
1:08
know where I'm going. If you've noticed, they very,
1:10
very, very sharp line move. It was so sharp, I cut my
1:12
finger, started bleeding all over my app, my app when I put
1:15
that one in. But then also WNBA, there is a
1:18
do or die Game 5 here tonight, which is the basically the
1:22
biggest game the WNBA season thus far.
1:24
Eight, 8:00 PM Eastern Time. I believe the winner goes to the
1:27
WNBA Finals. So double play for that one as
1:30
well, including a very, very sharp rhythm edge, which
1:33
hopefully we will take advantage of.
1:35
And then I want to talk some college football because I wrote
1:37
my sharp report today for visen.com and there were three
1:40
games that caught my eye. And I'm thinking we might want
1:43
to play a couple of these, if not all of them right now
1:46
because they are super sharp contrarian spots.
1:49
And I'm hoping to get some hooks and key numbers right now.
1:52
Thinking that maybe this might be the best number that you're
1:55
going to get if it continues to fall toward the sharp contrarian
1:58
side. So a lot to get to on today's
2:00
pod, but before we get into it, how about continuing our winning
2:04
streak after an epic weekend 8 and 1 + 5.7 units.
2:09
We kept it going yesterday. Two and one plus a 0.82 units.
2:13
So happy to see the win streak continue.
2:15
Had a couple great hits, one with the New York Yankees,
2:18
Kansas City Royals under 7 1/2. That one was kind of cruising
2:22
early. Then the Royals put up a bunch
2:24
of runs and then luckily the Royals pen shut down.
2:27
The Yankees tied that series 11. The game ended up landing, I
2:31
believe six. It was a four to two win by the
2:34
Kansas City Royals. So nice little under 7 1/2 for
2:36
the team. And then for the one Night
2:38
Football game we split it couldn't get the Saints, which
2:42
again ended up being a little bit short there.
2:45
I guess Patrick Mahomes and the and the Kansas City Chiefs are
2:47
too good covering a number as a favorite.
2:49
But we did get our Noah Gray over 20 1/2 receiving yards.
2:54
I believe he landed on 29. He had a big 15 yard catch
2:57
early. Then you had to wait it, wait
2:59
for it. But later in the second-half had
3:01
another big catch about a 14 yarder.
3:03
And that was right up our our blueprint here when it comes to
3:06
looking at second tier players who may be the betting public
3:09
isn't focused on, but we have a good rhythm edge on.
3:12
So shout out to rhythm once again, they're predicting closer
3:15
to around 39 yards again, he lands 29 Cashes are over 20 1/2.
3:19
So if you haven't signed up for rhythm yet, another example last
3:22
night with Noah Gray, you know, would I have ever cashed Noah
3:25
Gray over before stumbling upon rhythm?
3:27
I doubt it. So once again, proving that when
3:31
you have access to these AI predicted predictive models and
3:34
predictions, they can really help you cash some tickets.
3:37
So make sure you sign up for rhythm and you can do so by
3:39
clicking that custom link located in the bio description
3:42
of the podcast. So overall, 2 and 1 + 0.82
3:46
units. Let's keep it rolling.
3:47
And again with a three pack tonight, let's try to get 2 out
3:50
of 3 and eke out another winning day.
3:53
So I want to start off with some Major League Baseball biggest
3:56
game of the night. Obviously Philly in the Mets.
3:58
That's a big one. That is A5 O 8:00 PM Eastern
4:01
Time game, but the most heavily bat game the night nine O 8:00
4:04
PM Eastern Time. Fox Sports 1, the Dodgers and
4:07
the Padres. I found an angle on this game,
4:10
guys. And the first thing before we
4:12
even get to the betting market and where the smart money is
4:14
leaning is that I think it's a good baseball game to sweat
4:18
regardless of which dog you got in the fight here because this
4:21
series is getting a little bit testy.
4:24
Remember, this is Game 3 as a series shifts back to San Diego.
4:28
It's tied 1 to one. Dodgers won the first one, seven
4:30
to five. Padres rolled 1:50 in the last
4:33
game and now you're starting to see like it almost takes me back
4:35
and I almost can can do nothing but smile.
4:38
It reminds me a little bit of the Red Sox Yankees hate, which
4:41
I was born and raised on. It was the peak of my baseball
4:44
fandom right right before the Sox broke the curse.
4:47
But a lot of bad blood. Remember, Pedro threw down Don
4:49
Zimmer, Varitek put his glove in a rod's face.
4:53
Now you're getting Manny Machado throwing the ball into the
4:55
stands. Dave Roberts calling him out.
4:58
There has been fighting in the in the in the stands between
5:02
fans and I also saw tonight the Padres issued a warning to their
5:06
fans like, don't don't do anything stupid, you know, make
5:09
make sure you conduct yourself, you know, not like a drunken
5:12
idiot. So there's a lot of bad blood.
5:14
So to me, this is a great game to watch just for the drama of
5:17
it all. But you know what's even better
5:19
than watching an exciting game, cashing a ticket at the end.
5:21
So let's look toward the pitching matchup for tonight.
5:24
I'm going to give you my bet. First off, pitching match up I
5:28
think is a big lean or favorite or favor toward obviously based
5:32
on the line move in the line right now, San Diego's around
5:34
-150 -, 160, but you would expect on paper in advantage
5:38
with the Padres because they're going with Michael King, who was
5:41
picked up in that trade for Juan Soto from the Yankees.
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So far this postseason, he's been great one and O with a 0.00
5:49
ERA. He pitched a great Game, 7
5:51
innings, no runs against the Atlanta Braves and the regular
5:55
season he was 13 and 9 with a 2.95 ERA.
5:57
And if you look at just his game log, really since basically the
6:03
beginning of September, he's given up 1 earned run or less
6:07
in, let's see, 1234 of his last five starts.
6:10
So he has an ERA of like 1 1/2 over his last last four starts
6:14
or so. He'll be opposed by Walker
6:16
Buehler, who I was high on years ago, but he ended up getting
6:20
hurt. He's coming back from Tommy
6:21
John, didn't have a very good year, one in 65.38 ERA.
6:26
He's making his first postseason start and in five September
6:29
starts, he had an ERA of 4.44. So you got to be thinking based
6:33
on the match up here, King greater than Bueller.
6:37
Now let's look toward the betting market because maybe the
6:39
pitching matchup looks one way on paper, but the betting market
6:41
is telling you something else. So that's not the case here.
6:44
Betting markets telling me San Diego here, guys, I'm going
6:46
Padres. This game opened San Diego
6:49
around a -, 150 home favorite, and now they're up to around
6:52
-155 -, 160. And what's notable to me is this
6:56
line never got below -150 it's either stayed the same or
7:01
basically ticked up in favor of the San Diego Padres.
7:04
So it's basically been one way movement, consistent movement in
7:08
favor of the pods. And what I really like about San
7:10
Diego is they're not a huge popular bet tonight.
7:12
They're only getting 54% of bets, but 65% of dollars.
7:17
So that really jumped out to me. Basically a very slight public
7:20
lien 54%. You would think 54% a line
7:23
really shouldn't move at all. You know, we are seeing a 5 or
7:26
even 10 cent move in favor of San Diego.
7:29
And even though you have the 5050 fifty line move, you also
7:32
have a good bet split low bets, higher dollars again, 54%
7:35
tickets, but 65% money. You add in the fact that this is
7:39
a good correlative betting favorite low total total.
7:42
This one is 8 and actually ticked up at some shops 7 1/2 up
7:45
to 8. But either way, you know, a low
7:47
total is anything less than 8 1/2.
7:49
So 8 or less high total is really, you know, 9 or more so
7:53
low total fewer amount of expected runs.
7:55
You would expect that the runs would come from quote UN quote
7:58
the better team, not overall, but by the line for tonight,
8:01
which would be a minus sign in front of San Diego.
8:04
Also, you look at San Diego, they've played well against the
8:07
Dodgers here. They went eight and five against
8:09
the Dodgers during the regular season.
8:11
San Diego's been one of the best teams as a home favorite this
8:14
year and again with an advantage here, you would expect at least
8:18
based on the numbers and I've seen Michael King pitch.
8:21
I want to back Michael King tonight.
8:22
Guys really throwing the ball well right now.
8:24
I want to fade Walker Bueller and we've got a little bit of
8:27
line movement. We got a good bet split.
8:29
We have a correlative betting favorite, low total.
8:31
We got bad blood. Machado's getting called out.
8:33
I think this is a game here that you're excited to sweat and
8:36
hopefully we can watch a it would be nice to, you know,
8:39
another ten to two game, but I don't know if we're going to get
8:41
that. But we can eke out a win no
8:43
matter what it takes. I'll go 16 innings tonight.
8:46
Or maybe remember the Red Sox game when Nathan Navaldi came in
8:49
against the Dodgers? What was that 19 in the game?
8:52
Whatever it takes here, guys, I'm strapping up and I'm
8:54
sweating the San Diego Padres. I like this line move that split
8:57
pitching advantage again, advantage overall this season
9:01
and some good correlative betting favorite low total.
9:03
So shop around, try to get the lowest number you can around
9:06
-150 I was able to get the pods at -152 again, some shops as
9:12
closer or a little bit closer to -160 but I'm going to sweat the
9:15
pods tonight. Hope they take that 21
9:18
seriously. Now let's go over to some
9:20
college football. Now.
9:22
This one jumped out to me, and I'm kicking myself a little bit
9:24
because I wish I had started the pod a few hours ago when you
9:28
could have gotten a better number.
9:29
But let's talk about FIU and Liberty again.
9:32
I mentioned the fact that we're now gonna get football literally
9:34
every single day for like the next two months, which is
9:37
fantastic. But the one game tonight, FIU at
9:40
Liberty 7:00 on CBS Sports Network, come into this one with
9:44
Florida International 2 and 3. They did just have a win as a 2
9:48
point dog at home against LA Tech.
9:50
Meanwhile, they'll be facing Liberty, who's four and O this
9:52
year, just had a 35 to 24 win over ECU.
9:56
But the biggest and most obvious thing you're going to see when
9:59
it comes to this game is a one way massive line move toward
10:03
FIU. This was incredible.
10:05
And I even noticed this couple days ago.
10:07
I saw Liberty open around -20 so 20 point home favorite.
10:11
And a couple days ago Liberty was down to, I want to say like
10:14
-19 -, 18 - 17 1/2 even. I'm like, OK, I'm looking like
10:19
I'm going Florida International. Then I wake up this morning,
10:23
they're down to 16 1/2. Some books are even down to 16.
10:27
So this is just a huge line move in favor of FIU.
10:30
Literally a 3 1/2 or even 4 point move in favor of FIU.
10:35
If we take a step back, if the the FIU Panthers were getting
10:38
7080% of bets, trendy dog line move.
10:41
OK, that would make sense. What really gets to me with FIU
10:45
is that the public's on Liberty. Liberty is getting 64% of spread
10:49
bets, yet the line isn't going toward the team getting nearly
10:52
2/3 of bets. The lines going away from the
10:54
popular team. So that makes me like FIU even
10:56
more. So they're only getting 36% of
10:59
bets, but 51% of dollars. So that would be a great low
11:03
bets, higher dollars bet split only 1/3 of tickets basically,
11:07
But half the money tells us the bigger, sharper wagers are on
11:10
FIU and the points here. Now it kind of kills you to get
11:13
a 16 1/2 now that now that a couple or now that it was at one
11:17
point, you know, as high as 20. But one thing I do like is that
11:21
there's no buyback on on on liberty.
11:24
It's not like this line got down to, you know, 16 1/2 and now
11:27
it's creeping back up to 17 or 17 1/2.
11:30
If anything, you're getting down to 16.
11:31
I do see a couple books that are at 16.
11:34
So I did find a hook on FIU plus 16 1/2.
11:37
That's my bet right now. FanDuel and Bet MGM both have
11:40
the hook. So as always, one thing we
11:42
preach on the pod is having multiple outs.
11:45
You can't just bet through one sports book.
11:46
If you're like me and you live in Massachusetts, you can get up
11:49
to like 7 or 8 different sports books.
11:51
So I found the 16 out for the hook at FanDuel or Bet MGM.
11:54
Take your pick. But if you're at a book that's
11:56
just at a 16, maybe you wait it out, see if it ticks back up or
12:00
if not you play the 16. You can wait between now again
12:04
and kick off and see if it rises.
12:05
But this would be another another reason why you should
12:08
have those multiple outs. I know it kind of is annoying to
12:10
open up a new account. It takes a little bit of time
12:13
you got to go through the contact information.
12:15
But when you like let's say FIU loses by 16 night, you cover
12:19
with the hook you would have pushed with the regular 16.
12:22
So I took the 16 F with FIU. They're contrarying in a heavily
12:26
back game, so it's the only game in town tonight, which means
12:29
it'll be very heavily bet. Great reverse line move.
12:32
These are two Conference USA teams, so one thing that we love
12:35
to do is look at conference dogs that built in familiarity in the
12:38
rivalry aspect, levels the playing field, benefits the team
12:42
getting the points. You'd also have a dog who can
12:44
score system match you. Look at FIU, they're averaging
12:47
28 points per game. So can you score enough at least
12:51
to keep pace or maybe back to our cover?
12:53
The other angle here is a good correlative betting big dog low
12:56
total. So you're getting 16 1/2 with
12:58
FIU total in this game is 55 1/2.
13:01
So it's not like this total is 60 or 70.
13:03
You know where it would be basically a more of an advantage
13:06
for Liberty, the more points scored, easier to cover.
13:09
You're a big favorite in a low total game.
13:11
So it's going to be difficult for Liberty based on that kind
13:14
of correlative betting comparison to cover that price.
13:18
And then the cherry on top, like FIU, you had me at the line
13:21
move. You had me at the low bets,
13:22
higher dollars, contrarian heavily bet RLM conference dog,
13:26
dog who can score correlative betting a big dog low total.
13:30
Then I pop open my Rhythm app and I go to the rhythm AI
13:34
predicted spread here and Rhythm don't tell anybody guys.
13:38
Rhythm is predicting FIU plus 9.7 + 9.7.
13:45
So if you're, you know, annoyed by the fact that you're only
13:47
getting 16 1/2 when you could have gotten a number much better
13:50
than that, maybe it takes some consolation in the fact that,
13:52
hey, this is maybe you're on a 10 point game.
13:54
And if we're getting 16 1/2 and we're contrarian and we got a
13:57
good sharp line move, this is a play that I'm going to make
14:00
every single time, guys. So give me FIU.
14:02
I'm a big Florida International Panthers fan tonight. 7:00 CBS
14:06
Sports Network. I got FIU at plus 16 1/2.
14:10
Make sure you get the hook. Next, let's go over to some WNBA
14:15
because there's a do or die game here tonight in Minnesota,
14:18
Connecticut Sun versus Minnesota Lynx winner goes to the NBWNBA
14:22
finals where they'll play, I believe New York.
14:25
And this is interesting for a couple reasons.
14:27
I'm going to come out and tell you guys, this isn't a
14:30
data-driven play for me as much as it is a really good rhythm
14:34
discrepancy play. So in terms of the side, we have
14:38
seen this line move or basically currently we are showing, let me
14:42
just dial up my bet splits to double check, but Minnesota is
14:46
around a 3 1/2 or 4 point favorite.
14:48
And if you look at the bet splits for this game currently,
14:52
you are getting Minnesota with 69% bets, 83% money.
14:56
So the line is going to Minnesota.
14:58
I was a little bit interested in maybe Minnesota just winning the
15:01
game on the money line, but it was like -170 -, 180 a little
15:05
bit pricey for me. But I did like the fact that
15:08
Minnesota went again minus 3 1/2 up to -469% bets, 83% money.
15:14
So, you know, low bets, higher dollars line move.
15:16
It's just a little bit too hefty on the price for the money line.
15:19
So I focused on the total and I noticed a really big edge toward
15:23
the over. So the reason why I told you
15:26
it's not a big data play is that this line is kind of stayed the
15:29
same or even fallen. Like it opened at around one
15:33
51151 1/2. It's down to 151 at some shops.
15:40
The big thing for me is can you shop around and find an over
15:43
150? You should be able to find it.
15:46
I was able to find over 150. Let me just double check right
15:50
now at both FanDuel or sorry, over 150 1/2.
15:54
At both FanDuel and Caesar's, they're at 150 1/2.
15:58
I'm looking at bet MGM, ESPN bet they're 151 1/2.
16:03
So I'm going to buy low and go over 150 1/2.
16:07
And here my this is my reasoning.
16:09
First two games of the series versus the last two games, cuz
16:12
it's a best of five, have been completely different.
16:14
First two games you had the Sun win 73 to 70 and the Lynx win 77
16:21
to 70, so you averaged 145 points.
16:24
The last two games they have exploded offensively.
16:27
In game three the Lynx won 90 to 81 and game 4 the Sun won 92 to
16:33
82. So that was an average of 172.5
16:36
points. So literally you went from very
16:39
low scoring, averaging 145 the first two games to much higher
16:44
scoring, averaging 172 1/2 now. During the regular season, these
16:48
teams played three times the average 157 points.
16:52
The other thing I like about going over before I get to the
16:54
the big money maker here, the reason why I'm going over it has
16:57
to do with the rhythm edge. But this is a relatively short
17:00
spread. So if you have Minnesota links
17:02
again -3 1/2 now -4 that's a short spread, which could lead
17:07
to a competitive game back and forth.
17:09
It's not like the links are favored by 10 or 15, in which
17:11
case maybe you're up big and you take your foot off the gas.
17:14
But short spread competitive game also, it's a do or die.
17:18
Now, I will fully admit game sevens, NBA and NHLI do lean
17:22
unders here. But I'm thinking in this case,
17:26
maybe it's the fact that, you know, because we've seen this
17:29
this higher scoring games recently, you know, and it's
17:32
tight, you know, do you get into fouling late?
17:35
Like do we get some cheap points here late because of fouling and
17:38
keeping the game close? Ideally, that's the goal.
17:42
But here's the big reasoning why.
17:44
When I popped open my rhythm app, I had two models on this
17:47
game. Now my rhythm AI model had the
17:49
sun links total at 157.4. My Josh model had a 157.2.
17:57
So they're basically the same, but I also looked at the
18:00
community Edge here, which is a premium feature, which if you
18:03
haven't heard me talk about it before, just to refresher the
18:05
community feature and Rhythm basically pulls and compiles
18:08
everyone who has a Rhythm account who have made a custom
18:11
model on the game. And then it says, OK, all these
18:13
models, where are they leaning over, under, dog favorite, yadda
18:16
yadda. 94.3% of community models on the total are going over.
18:21
So all the sharp wise guys and wise gals who have created
18:25
Rhythm accounts, their models are saying going over as well.
18:28
So to me, the fact that we've seen again, a huge increase in
18:32
scoring the last two games, we're kind of buying low a
18:34
little bit on the over 150 1/2 and we have rhythm predicting
18:39
closer to a 157, even 158. And we're with all the sharp
18:43
people in the rhythm community, that's enough for me to sweat
18:46
the over here. So shop around again, easily you
18:49
can find a 151 1/2 or 151, but do a little hunting out there.
18:54
Try to find that over 150 1/2. Again, Rhythm is predicting at
18:58
least fly over that total by around 7 points.
19:02
And again, over 150 and half is available at both FanDuel and
19:05
Caesar's. So I'm going sun links over 150
19:09
1/2 with FIU plus 16 1/2 and with the Padres.
19:13
Let's go fathers. I got the fathers around -152.
19:17
Now to finish up the pod, I want to mention a couple college
19:20
football games for this weekend because I wrote my sharp report
19:23
for visen.com, which comes out every comes out every Tuesday
19:28
here. And I went to basically three of
19:31
the most heavily bet games and found a couple good sharp edges
19:35
and good sharp line moves. So the first one that I wanted
19:38
to mention was Ohio State and Oregon.
19:41
This is the most heavily bet game of the weekend.
19:43
It's a 7:30 PM Eastern Time game.
19:46
And the reason why it's so heavily bet is you have two top
19:48
five teams, two really good teams facing off here.
19:52
Now, Ohio State comes in five and O ranked second.
19:55
Oregon comes in five and O ranked third.
19:57
But what are we seeing across the betting market?
19:59
This game opens with Ohio State listed around a four point Rd.
20:04
favorite. Now this line's down to 3 1/2.
20:06
And some put, some shops are even juiced up like it may get
20:09
down to three. And I think there are actually
20:11
are a couple shops that are down to three.
20:14
Now, what's really notable is that the public is hammering
20:16
Ohio State. I get it.
20:18
They look like a powerhouse. That Oregon, you know, hasn't
20:21
covered too many numbers. They're not as high flying as
20:23
maybe we expected them to be. But currently you're getting 70%
20:27
of bets on Ohio State, yet this line is dropping toward Oregon.
20:30
So that's a dead giveaway to me that Oregon is the sharp bet.
20:34
And if you look at currently across the market, you should be
20:37
able to get the hook here. I'm seeing a + 3 1/2 available
20:40
pretty much everywhere. FanDuel bet, MGM, Caesar's ESPN
20:45
bets actually down to three. So I jumped on Oregon right now
20:49
at 3 1/2. They're juiced up at some shops,
20:51
plus 3 1/2 -, 115. So that my goal in betting
20:55
Oregon now early in the week is that number one, I know I'll be
20:58
on the contrarian side and #2 three is a key number.
21:02
You know, if Oregon loses by three, I want to cover with the
21:04
hook. If I wait a few more days, this
21:06
might get down to three everywhere and I'll miss the
21:08
hook there. The other angle that I like with
21:10
the Ducks, not only are they contrarian in the most heavily
21:12
bet game of the week, 730 on NBC, only getting 30% of bets,
21:17
but here's a little nugget that I dug up and I went to my
21:19
database and I said, I know I like 2 ranked teams, take the
21:23
favorite, but what if they're really, really good?
21:25
What if they're both top five? And I dialed it up and since
21:28
2005, when two teams play each other and they're both in the
21:32
top five, take the dog. The dog is 27 and 17 ATS 61%.
21:38
So that's a good angle to back Oregon.
21:41
So this is the most heavily back game of the week.
21:42
Prime time. Should be a great game to sweat
21:44
here. Two really good teams facing
21:46
off, but everyone's playing Ohio State.
21:48
The Lions fall into Oregon. I'm taking Oregon right now.
21:51
Plus 3 1/2 before it falls even further.
21:54
Iowa State and WVU. And guess what?
21:58
We got another opportunity for Shenandoah River.
22:01
Take Me Home. Country roads.
22:03
This one is right up my alley because it is contrarian with a
22:06
sharp line move and it's an unranked versus ranked
22:08
opportunity. So Iowa State comes in five and
22:11
O ranked 11th. West Virginia three and two
22:14
unranked, but had that huge win for us as a dog against Oklahoma
22:17
State last week. Now public is all over the
22:21
Cyclones. They open around -3 and they're
22:24
getting 67% of bets. So basically everyone's looking
22:28
to play Iowa State. Better ranking better.
22:31
One loss record, however, open cyclones -3 it's briefly at
22:36
times got gotten up to 3 1/2, and every time it gets to 3 1/2,
22:39
it comes right back down to three.
22:42
I don't see any hooks right now on West Virginia plus 3 1/2.
22:44
I'm going to wait this thing out because you do still have a
22:47
couple of shops that are kind of juicing it up a little bit
22:50
toward the Iowa State side. So I know I'm going to be on
22:53
West Virginia. They're only getting 33% of
22:55
bets. This is also an 8:00 game
22:58
nationally televised on Fox, so we're controlling heavily back
23:00
game only 33% bets, 45% money is on WVU.
23:05
There would be a conference dog on ranked first ranked, as well
23:09
as a dog who can score system match.
23:11
My 1 angle here is I want the hook on WVU, so I'm going to
23:15
give this another day or two. If this does get down to 2 1/2,
23:20
we missed the three. That's going to be rough, but
23:23
maybe we're going to see this thing creep back up.
23:25
If you see this get up to 3 1/2, I'm going to pounce on the hook.
23:29
But to me, WVU is a sharp play here.
23:32
Everyone's playing Iowa State, but we got a line freezer, maybe
23:34
some RLM toward WVU. So I'm looking at WVU, but I
23:38
need the hook and I'm going to give that a little bit more
23:40
time. So monitor that one, circle it
23:42
and let's try to get back to it. K State in Colorado, this one
23:46
jumped out to me for a couple reasons.
23:48
One, it's a very heavily bet late game, 10:15 PM Eastern
23:52
Time. K State comes in four and one
23:54
ranked 18th. Colorado is 4:00 and 1:00, but
23:57
they are unranked. And the first thing I notice is
24:01
a line move toward Colorado. So Colorado opened as a six
24:04
point dog. Now the line is down to four.
24:07
And if you look across the market, some shops, I even see
24:10
one shop at 3 1/2. ESPN bets down to 3 1/2.
24:13
So all movement is toward Colorado.
24:15
And you might take a step back and say, OK, like Colorado Coach
24:19
Prime, you know, Sugar Sanders, Travis Hunter, Heisman
24:22
candidate, you know, they must be a trendy dog, right?
24:26
They're actually not 56% of spread bets are going K state
24:30
yet the Lions going to Colorado. So Colorado would be contrarian
24:33
and heavily backed game only getting 44% of bets.
24:36
They're in a Bilo unranked home dog versus ranked opponent.
24:38
They're a dog who can score system match 31 points per game.
24:43
And also they're in the rare spot of being a contrarian dog.
24:46
Colorado is usually a big public favorite.
24:48
Remember last year when they started what, 3 and O2 and O,
24:51
whatever, it was like everyone's loving them.
24:54
They kind of abandoned the bandwagon a little bit.
24:56
Maybe they're kind of questioning Colorado.
24:58
I like the fact that Colorado isn't ranked and they're not
25:01
popular. That makes me like them more
25:04
because usually they're getting the lion's share of the support.
25:07
They're two and O at home. K State's one and one on the
25:09
road. If you remember K State, we had
25:11
a big win against them. I want to say was wasn't it BYU
25:14
at home? It was similar sort of thing
25:15
where K State was the ranked team laying points, but the line
25:18
kept going to the unranked home dog.
25:20
Same thing is happening here with Colorado.
25:22
So I'm on Colorado guys and I will just tell you right now I
25:27
got plus 4 1/2 and the only book at 4 1/2 right now because it's
25:30
pretty much all fours. FanDuel is offering Colorado at
25:34
plus 4 1/2. So again, shop around, have
25:37
multiple outs. I jumped on Colorado at plus 4
25:39
1/2 so I have in pocket. Colorado 4 1/2 I have in pocket.
25:45
In pocket just means I've already bet it.
25:47
I'm technically holding the ticket.
25:48
But really, you know, I bet the game in the app, so it's
25:51
electronic about four and a half with Colorado, 3 1/2 with Oregon
25:55
and I'm going to hold out and wait for West West Virginia
25:58
getting 3 1/2. So that about does it 4 episode.
26:02
What are we at now? 136 of the all systems go sports
26:07
betting pod power by rhythm. We kind of talked about
26:09
everything guys, MLB playoffs, college football tonight and
26:12
upcoming WNBA. So hopefully we can eke out
26:16
another two in one night and hopefully have a winning night
26:19
here. But this is the part of the pod
26:21
where we wrap things up. And I start by asking a big
26:23
favor of you. Can you do me a solid?
26:25
Can you make me happy and do me a favor?
26:27
Could you please give this podcast a five star review?
26:30
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes should be an option to
26:33
rate or review. Just click the five stars.
26:35
It would make my day. Help us to grow the pod, you
26:39
know, kind of expand the pod, gain more credibility, rise up
26:42
the charts. It's just a very simple thing
26:44
you can do to help the pod grow. If you also want to recommend
26:47
the pod to a friend, I would love that as well.
26:50
Also, if you're maybe looking at, you know, you know, hitting
26:54
the follow button, that'll be great as well.
26:56
That way you'll get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
26:59
But please, please, please give it a five star review.
27:01
I don't ask much of you guys and I I hate begging for something,
27:05
but it's important to me that we get those those five star
27:08
reviews up because it's it's good to rise up the charts for
27:11
iTunes and Spotify. Next, if you enjoy this style of
27:16
breakdown that you tune into each day from a data-driven
27:19
perspective, we leave our bias at the door.
27:21
You notice I never say I like this.
27:22
I love you know, it's not about your bias, your opinion, It's
27:25
about what the market is doing. So if you've learned to bet by
27:29
reading the market, and this pot has helped you do that, looking
27:32
at what a line opened at how it moved, you're looking at bet
27:35
splits, bets in dollars, trying to figure out where the public
27:38
is, where the sharps are at, betting system matches, money
27:40
lining, short home favorites, you know, fading trendy dogs,
27:45
any of this. If this is appealed to you,
27:47
helped you to become a sharper better, to beat some closing
27:50
lines, then guess what, there is a great book out there.
27:54
It's called the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
27:56
You know who wrote it? I did go buy my book, guys
27:59
support the team, make me happy. Give it to a buddy of yours
28:02
who's maybe new to betting or in a newly legalized state or who
28:05
loves betting and who struggles, needs a blueprint, needs a way a
28:08
North star. Give them the everything guide
28:10
to sports betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
28:13
the Everything Guide to sports betting.
28:15
It's got everything that I've learned in the sports betting
28:16
industry. How lines are set, how and why
28:19
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
28:21
action, how to place the bet in person or online, how to shop
28:24
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
28:26
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
28:29
Betting. So pick one up when I see at the
28:30
sports book, bring my book to the book.
28:33
I'll sign it for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale
28:36
next. Have you taken advantage of
28:38
Rhythm and Juice Reel? Rhythm had a great win for us
28:40
last night with that Noah Gray over, but Rhythm helps me win.
28:44
Juice Reel helps me win. I want them to help you win.
28:46
They're my two favorite sports betting apps because they deal
28:49
in data, not in opinion. So Rhythm, as you guys know by
28:52
now, great with their AI backed models and predictions for game
28:55
bets and player props. Juice Reel is fantastic for
28:59
their Robo Jackson recommended best bet picks each day.
29:02
You can tail those, by the way, one of them tonight is on the
29:05
Padres. Love love seeing that always
29:08
like it when I overlap with Robo.
29:10
But then also you can take advantage of arbitrage
29:13
opportunities each day with juice real.
29:15
You can look at the sharp mush plays, which are the top pro
29:17
versus Joe bets each day. You can get dollar amounts real
29:20
money wagered for every game spread money line in total based
29:24
on people who have downloaded rhythm and synced up their
29:26
sports books. And then you'll also get great
29:30
futures shop line shopping opportunities.
29:33
It's just a great app to help you win.
29:34
And again, it helps me win. So go sign up for both Juice
29:37
Reel and Rhythm. And you got to do it as you guys
29:39
know or don't know, you got to do it by clicking the custom
29:42
links that are located in the bio description of the podcast.
29:44
So if you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, go to the
29:47
description. Each day it changes.
29:49
Today it'll say in episode 136, Josh dishes out a three pack of
29:53
sweats for for Tuesday. Scroll down, you'll get a link
29:56
to Rhythm and Juice Reel. Click those links, you'll get
29:58
right in and you'll be able to start your 7 day free trial.
30:02
But that about does it. Everybody, as always, whether I
30:04
see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
30:07
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
30:10
Sun, down in Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plainridge
30:13
Park Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
30:16
Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true grinders
30:19
get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
30:21
number runners, Where the lowest juice possible is found at the
30:23
South Point or of course, the Walt Disney World for sports
30:27
betters. I'm talking about Circa jumping
30:30
in the stadium swimming pool, cashing a big ticket wherever it
30:32
may be. You're going to walk up to me.
30:34
Show me a Yankees KC under 7 1/2.
30:37
Show me a Noah Gray over 20 1/2. Guess what?
30:40
First one's on me, next one's on you.
30:41
We're going to post about the book, Sweat Shark and train
30:43
Place all night long. So wish you the best luck
30:46
everyone. Again, three pack tonight.
30:48
Let's try to get two out of three and keep the good vibes
30:50
going. As always, I will see you
30:53
tomorrow for another big episode of the All Systems Gopod, but
30:57
I'll leave you with this, as I always do.
30:58
Stay sharp, stay contrarian. Bet against the public.
31:01
Place yourself on the side of the house.
31:03
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
31:05
Will smart money when every time?
31:07
Of course not. There's no such thing as a lock
31:09
or a guarantee. But our job is always to stick
31:12
to the model, stick to the blueprint if we can find those
31:15
edges each day. Bypass the games that don't
31:17
offer value. Get down on the games that do.
31:20
Against the public, with the house, with the pros.
31:22
Flat bet, avoid parlays. Get that CLV.
31:25
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
31:28
So have a great night everybody. We got a lot of big sweats
31:30
tonight. Let's eek out a winning night
31:32
and we back at it tomorrow for episode 137 of the All Systems
31:36
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
31:39
Good luck everybody. Have a great Tuesday night.