Transcript

Sharri | 22 April · Sharri

0:01
Speaker 1: Live on Sky News.
0:03
Speaker 2: This is Sharry Good Evening.
0:08
Speaker 3: Tonight, exclusive Liberal party intel shows the election is much
0:12
Speaker 3: closer than the poll suggests. I'll share these confidential details
0:17
Speaker 3: and Liberal strategy for the final week in a moment.
0:21
Speaker 2: Plus, we'll hear tonight from.
0:23
Speaker 3: The director of Freshwater Strategy, the polling company behind the
0:26
Speaker 3: Liberals campaign, and radio legend. Ray Hadley would join me
0:30
Speaker 3: on the desk to speak about Minique Ryan's shocking day
0:34
Speaker 3: where she refused to answer questions on three separate occasions.
0:39
Speaker 2: We've got new footage coming.
0:41
Speaker 3: Up, and we'll cross live to the Vatican as crowds gathered.
0:45
Speaker 2: To mourn Pope Francis.
0:47
Speaker 3: On the show tonight, Bronwin, Bishop Dave Shama, Steve Price
0:51
Speaker 3: and more.
0:53
Speaker 2: But first tonight.
0:54
Speaker 3: Exclusive inside information into the state of this election and
0:58
Speaker 3: the truth about the polls. Polling booths are now open,
1:02
Speaker 3: Australians are casting their votes and the election is anyone's
1:07
Speaker 3: to win. Now Tonight, I'm going to tell you how
1:11
Speaker 3: the polls you're reading in the news are wrong when
1:14
Speaker 3: it comes to this federal election and what's really going
1:18
Speaker 3: on here. Most national polls have been showing Labor ahead
1:23
Speaker 3: and some have even pointed to majority government for Labor.
1:28
Speaker 2: But this is a fantasy. Now.
1:31
Speaker 3: You need to remember that the polls are simply a
1:33
Speaker 3: national survey of around one three hundred or so voters.
1:38
Speaker 2: It's like a thumb in the wind to see the
1:41
Speaker 2: national mood, and.
1:43
Speaker 3: The national polls pick up general trends and shifts in sentiment,
1:48
Speaker 3: but in terms of accuracy for the election outcome, they
1:52
Speaker 3: are categorically not the right tool for this particular election.
1:57
Speaker 3: Because this, more than any other is it's a hyper
2:00
Speaker 3: localized election. It doesn't matter what the national opinion is
2:04
Speaker 3: from one thousand or so voters out.
2:06
Speaker 2: Of eighteen million registered voters.
2:10
Speaker 3: It matters how the voters in the seats that are
2:13
Speaker 3: in play will vote, and the Liberals are polling around
2:17
Speaker 3: six hundred people in individual seats. Labor would be doing
2:21
Speaker 3: the same. So you look at six hundred voters per
2:24
Speaker 3: seat compared to one thousand people nationally, and when you
2:29
Speaker 3: look at the results from this, there's no question Peter
2:33
Speaker 3: Dutton is absolutely in the game. Liberal strategists are comparing
2:39
Speaker 3: this election to nineteen ninety eight, when John Howard lost
2:44
Speaker 3: the two party preferred vote at forty nine percent to
2:47
Speaker 3: Beasley's nearly fifty one percent, but howard one majority government. Now,
2:54
Speaker 3: this election could be a case where Labor wins the
2:57
Speaker 3: two PP vote the two party preferred vote, but Dutton
3:00
Speaker 3: either has more seats or there's a hung parliament. A
3:05
Speaker 3: likely outcome right now is that Dutton and alban Esi
3:10
Speaker 3: both win seats in the highest sixties, and then it
3:13
Speaker 3: would be who has the highest number and who can
3:16
Speaker 3: negotiate to form government.
3:19
Speaker 2: Now, Labor does.
3:20
Speaker 3: Have the advantage here because the Greens and the Teals
3:24
Speaker 3: would help Albanesi to form a radical green left government.
3:29
Speaker 3: It'd be even more out of step with Australia's Judeo
3:32
Speaker 3: Christian values than the Albanesi.
3:35
Speaker 2: Government currently is.
3:37
Speaker 1: Now.
3:38
Speaker 3: A good outcome for Peter Dutton would be reaching seventy
3:42
Speaker 3: seats or more, which would.
3:44
Speaker 2: Mean he'd have to pick up thirteen.
3:47
Speaker 3: Seats and the coalition currently holds fifty seven.
3:50
Speaker 2: Now it's a big ask, but.
3:52
Speaker 3: This all depends on how the next week and a
3:55
Speaker 3: half of campaigning goes. Now here's some insight into Liberal
3:59
Speaker 3: parts strategy. I can reveal that the vast majority of Liberals'
4:05
Speaker 3: election spend is geared up from today onwards.
4:09
Speaker 2: That's millions of dollars.
4:11
Speaker 3: Dutton's team has held back the vast majority of their
4:15
Speaker 3: election spending until now. Their view was that Easter would
4:20
Speaker 3: be a reset and voters would start thinking about the
4:22
Speaker 3: election when polling booths open. Now this could be a
4:27
Speaker 3: genius movel. They could have just left their election spending
4:31
Speaker 3: too late to make a difference. We know that Labour's
4:36
Speaker 3: aggressive attack ads have taken a hit on Dutton's personal standing,
4:41
Speaker 3: never mind whether they're true or not, and we'll yet
4:45
Speaker 3: to see whether the Liberals advertising spend on television and
4:48
Speaker 3: online hurts Alvin Easy in turn. But either way, right
4:53
Speaker 3: now the election is still highly competitive. One strategist said
4:58
Speaker 3: to me that at the moment the Liberals are within
5:01
Speaker 3: touching distance of being able to form a government, but
5:05
Speaker 3: there's work to do. This is an important reminder that
5:10
Speaker 3: the narrative suggested by the National polling that you keep
5:14
Speaker 3: reading about that it's impossible for the coalition to win
5:17
Speaker 3: and that Labor will form a majority government.
5:21
Speaker 2: This is inaccurate.
5:23
Speaker 3: It's why I have spent the time digging into the
5:25
Speaker 3: difference between the published polling and the internal research to
5:30
Speaker 3: bring you this information because it is crucial both Dutton
5:35
Speaker 3: and alban Easy know this. They know it's tighter than
5:39
Speaker 3: is being publicly suggested. And Peter Dutton even this morning
5:43
Speaker 3: spoke about the twenty nineteen election when all the polling
5:47
Speaker 3: said Bill Shotten would be Australia's Prime minister. It was
5:51
Speaker 3: utterly wrong.
5:54
Speaker 4: I think if you have a look at the twenty
5:55
Speaker 4: nineteen pole result, where all the public published polling was
6:00
Speaker 4: pointing one way, the reality is that there was a
6:03
Speaker 4: different outcome. Now I'm not going to go into the
6:05
Speaker 4: private polling, but you'll see where the government's spending money
6:08
Speaker 4: at the moment in their seats. They're defending seats at
6:11
Speaker 4: the moment, they're not on the offensive. So I think
6:14
Speaker 4: there's a bit more of a sophisticated view in relation
6:16
Speaker 4: to the polling and what's happening at the moment. Australians
6:18
Speaker 4: are hurting. That's the reality.
6:21
Speaker 3: So Dartan, they're saying that their private polling is different
6:26
Speaker 3: and reflects a different outcome to the published polls.
6:29
Speaker 2: It's also what National's.
6:31
Speaker 3: Leader David little Proud said in an interview last week
6:34
Speaker 3: as well.
6:35
Speaker 5: I don't think the national polls are reflective of the
6:39
Speaker 5: hyper local campaigns are taking place. There, and I think
6:42
Speaker 5: to your point, it's exactly about cost of living about
6:46
Speaker 5: in particularly as you get out of the inner suburbs
6:49
Speaker 5: where there is not necessarily a bigger cost of living crisis.
6:52
Speaker 5: As these you get out further out, they're not feeling
6:55
Speaker 5: it as much. And I think what's important is that
6:58
Speaker 5: while we're not walking away from the national polls and
7:00
Speaker 5: what they reflect, what we're what we're seeing now we're
7:03
Speaker 5: internal polling, is that as you get out where Australians
7:06
Speaker 5: are struggling and we're saying to them, we're going to
7:08
Speaker 5: give you a tax cut of twelve hundred dollars an
7:10
Speaker 5: individual twenty four hundred family.
7:14
Speaker 3: Now Anthony Alberanezi is getting cocky, but he knows this
7:18
Speaker 3: election is much tighter than the perception in the media,
7:22
Speaker 3: and he even warned publicly that, like Dudden said, this
7:25
Speaker 3: could be a repeat of twenty nineteen when everyone said
7:29
Speaker 3: Shorten was going to win.
7:30
Speaker 2: But did it. I remind colleagues that twenty nineteen.
7:37
Speaker 6: The book is paid out and guess what that didn't occur.
7:42
Speaker 2: That was a very unwise thing to do. Now here's
7:46
Speaker 2: something else.
7:47
Speaker 3: It's also worth keeping in mind that the pollsters behind
7:51
Speaker 3: News poll are Pixis Polling and they do the polling
7:55
Speaker 3: and research for the Labor Party.
7:58
Speaker 2: Now, I'm not saying newspoles inaccurate.
8:00
Speaker 3: I'm just saying it's worth keeping this in mind that
8:04
Speaker 3: the polsters behind it are being paid by Labor, probably
8:09
Speaker 3: millions of dollars.
8:10
Speaker 2: Now.
8:11
Speaker 3: The Liberal Party's polling is done by Freshwater Strategy, where
8:14
Speaker 3: the polster Mike Turner is considered the best in the business. Now,
8:19
Speaker 3: where Labor is spending its money also unpicks the narrative
8:23
Speaker 3: that it's confident of winning government. Labour's financial spend shows
8:28
Speaker 3: it's putting money and resources into holding onto very safe seats.
8:33
Speaker 3: Coalition analysis of Google and YouTube advertising spends shows that
8:38
Speaker 3: Labor is spending the most on safe Labor seats and
8:41
Speaker 3: these include Wills held by Peter Khalil on a margin
8:45
Speaker 3: of four point six percent, where Labour spent one hundred
8:49
Speaker 3: and twenty nine thousand dollars in the past month, Chisholm
8:53
Speaker 3: held by Labour's Koreina Garland. This is on a margin
8:56
Speaker 3: of three point three percent and Labour spent one hundred
8:59
Speaker 3: and sixty thousand dollars the seat of Hawk as well,
9:03
Speaker 3: margin of seven point six percent and Labour spent one
9:06
Speaker 3: hundred and eleven thousand. McEwen considered a safe seat again,
9:11
Speaker 3: Labour spent one hundred and ten thousand, and then Bruce
9:15
Speaker 3: held by Julian Hill and a margin of over five percent,
9:18
Speaker 3: and Labour spent one hundred and nine thousand, and on
9:21
Speaker 3: it goes. Now, this advertising spend is on digital advertising.
9:27
Speaker 3: It's how political parties now reach young voters who aren't
9:31
Speaker 3: consuming traditional media just as much.
9:33
Speaker 2: I mean, as you know, they're online the whole time.
9:36
Speaker 3: A coalition Sauce said that, and this is the coalition
9:39
Speaker 3: Sauce quoted in the Australian. They said that Labor is
9:43
Speaker 3: sandbagging in seats they claim they're not worried about and some.
9:48
Speaker 2: Of these are very safe labor seats.
9:51
Speaker 3: Gorton, Hawk, McEwen and the ALP is pouring hundreds of
9:55
Speaker 3: thousands of dollars into retaining. Now in some seats, liberal
10:00
Speaker 3: internal research shows that there are huge swings towards the coalition.
10:05
Speaker 3: It's been this way for months now, so big the
10:08
Speaker 3: liberal strategists are describing it as historic. So the message
10:14
Speaker 3: is this election is not over. Voters in key seats
10:18
Speaker 3: are unhappy with alban Easy understandably so, and the polls
10:23
Speaker 3: were disastrously wrong in twenty nineteen and again in the
10:28
Speaker 3: recent American election, when many are predicted the result either
10:32
Speaker 3: wouldn't be known for a week or more. All they
10:35
Speaker 3: said Kamala Harris would win. Now, Australian polsters aren't more
10:40
Speaker 3: sophisticated than the American sephologists.
10:44
Speaker 2: And despite the.
10:45
Speaker 3: Sand and the hourglass quickly trickling, we're only on day
10:49
Speaker 3: one of voting. The election isn't written in stone, and
10:54
Speaker 3: at this point the outcome is still up for grabs.
11:03
Speaker 2: Okay, we're going to cross.
11:04
Speaker 3: Live to Vatican City shortly, but now for more analysis
11:08
Speaker 3: on how the election's going, let's bring in former Speaker
11:10
Speaker 3: of the House ronman Bishop and Sky News host Steve Price.
11:14
Speaker 2: Welcome to you both.
11:16
Speaker 3: Roman, What are your thoughts on what I've just said
11:18
Speaker 3: there about this disconnect between the national mood that the
11:22
Speaker 3: polls that we see pushed forward in the media that
11:25
Speaker 3: give alb and Easy that confidence boost.
11:28
Speaker 2: He needs, you know, compared to what the.
11:30
Speaker 3: Individual's seat by seat research is showing in such a
11:34
Speaker 3: hyperlocal campaign.
11:36
Speaker 7: Well, first point, I've always been working on the likelihood
11:41
Speaker 7: of winning thirteen seats for the Opposition to be able
11:45
Speaker 7: to form government. The second thing is that I've been
11:48
Speaker 7: saying for some time like you, that the polling itself
11:53
Speaker 7: has become a tool of campaigning yes, and by pushing
11:57
Speaker 7: out this view that Albert Easy is winning, he's so
12:01
Speaker 7: far in front they expect to push people into accepting
12:04
Speaker 7: that and going along with it.
12:07
Speaker 2: So so true, it's.
12:09
Speaker 7: Not to be believed that this is exactly the way
12:12
Speaker 7: it's all going. Those individual seats are very different, and
12:15
Speaker 7: it was famously Tip O'Neill, the former Speaker of the
12:19
Speaker 7: United States Congress, who said that all politics is local,
12:24
Speaker 7: and very much in these seats a local issues that
12:27
Speaker 7: are going to be relevant to the finish. So I
12:32
Speaker 7: think that Peter Dutton has got to be very forceful
12:36
Speaker 7: coming forward in these last days and push the fact
12:40
Speaker 7: that whatever Albanezi has offered you is usually off in
12:44
Speaker 7: the future. What the opposition is offering is relief from
12:47
Speaker 7: the cost of living now, and the reduction in the
12:51
Speaker 7: petrol tax is first and foremost that clicks in immediately
12:55
Speaker 7: and affects the cost of everything, absolutely everything, because this
13:00
Speaker 7: country runs on diesel. So and the fact that he
13:06
Speaker 7: needs to point out what's in the wings, what they're
13:09
Speaker 7: going to give Australian people should they get back. And
13:14
Speaker 7: I just think that everything about Albanesi and his campaign
13:17
Speaker 7: is fake, even down to what has happened today. I'm
13:22
Speaker 7: pleased there's been a pause to recognize this.
13:25
Speaker 2: It's going to come to that in a moment actually.
13:28
Speaker 7: But I just find Alberanzi to be so professing today,
13:33
Speaker 7: but refusing to take an oath on the Bible to
13:36
Speaker 7: be sworn in as prime minister somehow just doesn't rest easily.
13:41
Speaker 2: And the attacks on tourney out of it. Absolutely all
13:46
Speaker 2: this rejection of religion.
13:49
Speaker 7: Yes, and suddenly it's vital, But to me it's important
13:53
Speaker 7: for other reasons, which we'll discuss its.
13:55
Speaker 3: Going exactly in a moment, the political reasons behind him
14:00
Speaker 3: doing that. Steve, you know, I want to get your
14:02
Speaker 3: thoughts on what I've had to say about the state
14:05
Speaker 3: of play.
14:05
Speaker 2: At the moment.
14:06
Speaker 3: I mean one of the main seats where the coalition
14:09
Speaker 3: is really looking to pick up what were.
14:12
Speaker 2: Very safe labor seats is Victoria.
14:15
Speaker 3: You know, do you see this mood, this rejection of
14:19
Speaker 3: the prime minister continuing in your state.
14:24
Speaker 8: It was really interesting what you said at the beginning
14:26
Speaker 8: of the program, because what I picked up today and
14:30
Speaker 8: you made the point that the Liberal Party had held
14:32
Speaker 8: back a lot of their campaign funding and now they're
14:34
Speaker 8: going to let it loose. In the last week and
14:37
Speaker 8: a half, listening to three AW, the main talkback radio
14:41
Speaker 8: station in Melbourne to day, in every ad break from
14:44
Speaker 8: around about seven in the morning until around midday, there
14:47
Speaker 8: was a Peter Dutton voiced ad talking about what he
14:51
Speaker 8: was going to offer Victorians. Now three OW is slightly
14:54
Speaker 8: less conservative than my old station two GiB in Sydney,
14:58
Speaker 8: and it's got a massive audience. The for show rates
15:01
Speaker 8: twenty percent, their morning show rates fourteen to fifteen percent,
15:04
Speaker 8: and their audience and I know because I used to
15:06
Speaker 8: run the joint. It's all spread through the outer ring
15:09
Speaker 8: suburbs of Melbourne where all those seats you just mentioned are,
15:13
Speaker 8: and they're now hammering, hammering, hammering the positive messages from
15:18
Speaker 8: Peter Dutton on that radio station. They would have spent
15:21
Speaker 8: tens of thousands, if not over one hundred thousand dollars
15:24
Speaker 8: in one day. And that's going to happen over and
15:27
Speaker 8: over and over again. And I think Victoria is still
15:30
Speaker 8: a place to keep your eye on and Brommin talks
15:33
Speaker 8: about thirteen seats and so do you you know there
15:35
Speaker 8: could be eight, nine, ten seats in Victoria alone if
15:39
Speaker 8: you believe what you're hearing on the ground and as
15:42
Speaker 8: you said, voting today.
15:44
Speaker 3: If that's true, Steve, if the swing really is on
15:48
Speaker 3: in Victoria, then you know, pushes the size of Dutton's
15:52
Speaker 3: when up much more because he's going to pick up
15:55
Speaker 3: a few in New South Wales. I mean, you say
15:57
Speaker 3: that is getting more difficult, but he's going to pick
15:59
Speaker 3: up a few South Wales potentially one in a couple
16:03
Speaker 3: of other states. So if it is that big in
16:05
Speaker 3: Victoria that he's in a position to form minority government.
16:13
Speaker 8: The labor brand here is so toxic. And I've said
16:16
Speaker 8: it to you before, but it happened again last weekend
16:19
Speaker 8: where we find out that during COVID, Daniel Andrews, the Premier,
16:23
Speaker 8: was telling us he was taking medical advice. There's now
16:25
Speaker 8: documents that show that he was the one who decided
16:28
Speaker 8: to have a curfew where no one could go out
16:30
Speaker 8: of their house after nine o'clock at night and couldn't
16:33
Speaker 8: go out before five o'clock in the morning. That was
16:36
Speaker 8: a decision taken by a labor politician. The only labor
16:39
Speaker 8: politician still in power who was in the cabinet that
16:41
Speaker 8: made that decision is the current premier. So the people
16:44
Speaker 8: of Victoria don't like labor and they're not saying, oh well,
16:49
Speaker 8: Anthony Albanize is different to what Dan Andrews and just
16:52
Speaker 8: Cinder Allen the life. They are saying, do we really
16:55
Speaker 8: want this mob to be in charge of us again?
16:58
Speaker 3: That is such a scat and all that big exclusive
17:02
Speaker 3: revealed by the Herald son that you know, instead of
17:04
Speaker 3: getting health advice, he got advice from polsters, literally polsters.
17:11
Speaker 3: You know there are young I don't know children, but
17:15
Speaker 3: teenagers who committed suicide. Their mental health issues were so
17:18
Speaker 3: bad Brunwan during the COVID lockdowns as a result of
17:21
Speaker 3: the decisions Daniel Andrews took for his own popularity against
17:26
Speaker 3: health advice.
17:27
Speaker 7: Absolutely and we all really thought that that what was
17:32
Speaker 7: going on at the time. I have to say, but
17:35
Speaker 7: to now to have the proof of us and no
17:37
Speaker 7: wonder you've got builders who won't build a house for him,
17:40
Speaker 7: more other people who won't leaving associate with people. I
17:44
Speaker 7: just feel that Victoria was served so badly under labor
17:49
Speaker 7: that that feeling still there. It does remind me a
17:52
Speaker 7: bit of nineteen ninety when Andrew Peacock won nine seats
17:55
Speaker 7: in Victoria. It was New South Wales that let him
17:58
Speaker 7: down and not winning that election, and New South Wales's
18:01
Speaker 7: time won't be letting the Coalition down.
18:04
Speaker 3: No, there's still plenty of seats or not as many
18:07
Speaker 3: of course, but still plenty to pick up in New
18:09
Speaker 3: South Wales. Steve, I want to get your reaction, you know,
18:12
Speaker 3: returning to the Pope's passing what I spoke about with Brunwin.
18:16
Speaker 3: The Prime Minister today said there'll be a pause in campaigning,
18:19
Speaker 3: a pause in the hostilities. You know, he suddenly cares
18:23
Speaker 3: about Catholicism when he's mocked it in the past.
18:26
Speaker 2: The hypocrisy here.
18:29
Speaker 8: Well, as Bromin said he refused to take the oath
18:32
Speaker 8: on the Bible when he was sworn in as Prime Minister.
18:34
Speaker 8: If you go back and look at the history of
18:37
Speaker 8: Anthony Albanesi in his relationship with religion, I'm not sure
18:40
Speaker 8: you're going to find a very staunch Catholic. I mean
18:43
Speaker 8: he certainly he mocked Tony Abbott, he called him the
18:45
Speaker 8: mad Monk I mean to suddenly decide that the death
18:49
Speaker 8: of the pope means that you're suddenly yourself a staunch Catholic. Look,
18:53
Speaker 8: maybe Anthony and Albaneze he's had a late life conversion
18:56
Speaker 8: to religion. But if you'd ask me a question a
18:59
Speaker 8: two weeks ago whether I thought Anthony Alberanezi was particularly religious,
19:03
Speaker 8: I would have said no.
19:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's never said that he is religious. Brow
19:09
Speaker 3: this would have been politically advantageous for him, as you
19:13
Speaker 3: were about to say before, one in five Australians are Catholic,
19:18
Speaker 3: and it would have given him more time to prepare
19:20
Speaker 3: for the debate tonight.
19:21
Speaker 2: And of course he doesn't want.
19:23
Speaker 3: There to be any campaigning days because that works in
19:26
Speaker 3: Darden's advantage.
19:28
Speaker 7: It also gave him good pictures. But on that question
19:33
Speaker 7: of the porting of the campaign, I approve of that
19:39
Speaker 7: because this is a country where the dominant religion is Christian. Yes,
19:45
Speaker 7: this country was founded on Christian values and principles, and
19:50
Speaker 7: I think it is appropriate, and I'm saying this is
19:52
Speaker 7: a Protestant. I think it is appropriate that the marking
19:57
Speaker 7: of the Pope's passing is recognized in this way to
20:02
Speaker 7: say that this is who we are as a people
20:05
Speaker 7: in the nation, and I think that's very important.
20:08
Speaker 3: No, I agree with you, And we gave a lot
20:10
Speaker 3: of coverage on the show last night to the Pope's passing,
20:14
Speaker 3: which happened just before we went to air, because religion
20:17
Speaker 3: is important and he is not only an historic figure,
20:21
Speaker 3: but he was incredibly inspirational to billions of Catholics around
20:26
Speaker 3: the world and other.
20:27
Speaker 2: People as well. And we're going to cross live to
20:29
Speaker 2: the Vatican in a moment.
20:30
Speaker 3: As I said, Steve, I want to ask you now,
20:33
Speaker 3: let's show this video Max Weifer.
20:35
Speaker 2: You might remember him.
20:36
Speaker 3: He's the Israeli influencer who showed those nurses making those
20:44
Speaker 3: very offensive and he submitted comments about Israelis that they'd
20:48
Speaker 3: kill Israelis if they went into the hospital. They've now
20:51
Speaker 3: been charged and they're making their way through the court system. Well,
20:54
Speaker 3: Max Weber has captured another Australian doing the Nazis.
21:00
Speaker 2: Have a look at this. What's good man?
21:05
Speaker 1: What's that juice?
21:07
Speaker 8: Why you.
21:11
Speaker 5: Pokustanding people?
21:13
Speaker 2: We didn't pakistanding before we free purchased there.
21:20
Speaker 3: I'm not sure why we've blurred his image. But if
21:22
Speaker 3: you've got a Max Viifa's Instagram account. You can see
21:25
Speaker 3: the full thing there, Steve. We don't know who this
21:28
Speaker 3: individual is, but you know, just appalling the prevalence of
21:34
Speaker 3: this sort of attitude online at the moment and how
21:37
Speaker 3: people are embracing the hitless salute.
21:42
Speaker 8: It's appalling and it does remind us soon as you said,
21:44
Speaker 8: this is going through the court, so you go back
21:46
Speaker 8: to the original vision video that he captured and it
21:50
Speaker 8: gave us a very stark insight into just how bad
21:56
Speaker 8: the anti Semitism has become in our country. And I
21:59
Speaker 8: think it's shocked. I mean, we have seen over and
22:02
Speaker 8: over and over and over again just how bad it is.
22:06
Speaker 8: It's interesting that it's not been a part of the
22:08
Speaker 8: election campaign really. I mean, of all the debates that
22:12
Speaker 8: we've had, I haven't seen someone nail the Prime Minister
22:18
Speaker 8: on how weak the government was post October seven. And
22:25
Speaker 8: they never really came out and slammed as hard as
22:29
Speaker 8: they should have what was going on around the suburbs
22:32
Speaker 8: of Australia. I don't believe they have anyway. I think
22:35
Speaker 8: Peter Dutton was much tougher and much harder on that,
22:39
Speaker 8: and I just hope somebody gets the opportunity to ask
22:42
Speaker 8: Anthony Alberanezi before election day, do you think now today,
22:46
Speaker 8: right now, before we go to the polls on the third,
22:49
Speaker 8: that you've done enough to support the Jewish people of Australia.
22:52
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely.
22:53
Speaker 7: How can he possibly say that when Drayfus has preferenced
22:58
Speaker 7: the Greens, you possibly believe that there's been any sincerity
23:04
Speaker 7: in anything that Albinizi has had to say about the
23:07
Speaker 7: antisemitism in this country. When the senior person in the
23:12
Speaker 7: law in this country, who is a Jewish person himself,
23:17
Speaker 7: is preferencing the hideous Greens.
23:21
Speaker 2: Says it all massive betrayal. And absolutely we've seen in so.
23:26
Speaker 3: Many seats today because finally today of course we see
23:28
Speaker 3: everyone's how to vote cards and we're seeing in so
23:30
Speaker 3: many seats, well, the Greens aren't preferencing labor. Second, so
23:35
Speaker 3: why couldn't Mike Dreyfus, as the attorney journalist, as you say,
23:38
Speaker 3: is the most senior Jewish member of the government, why
23:42
Speaker 3: couldn't he come out and say I'm not going to
23:45
Speaker 3: preference the Greens.
23:46
Speaker 7: Second, it is because Alberanizi has told him he can't
23:52
Speaker 7: and he's weak enough to give in.
23:54
Speaker 3: And then on that you know, as I spoke about
23:57
Speaker 3: last night, Josh Burns was blocked from coming on my
24:00
Speaker 3: speak about this, and then Steve Price today will again
24:04
Speaker 3: revelations in The Australian that Josh Burns Anthony Alberaneze has
24:08
Speaker 3: stopped Josh from taking questions at a press conference also
24:11
Speaker 3: about this issue.
24:14
Speaker 8: And Josh had the guts and courage to have an
24:17
Speaker 8: open ticket where he's not preferencing anybody, which he would
24:22
Speaker 8: have been criticized internally for making that decision, but good
24:26
Speaker 8: on him he did it. But Drafa, says Roman points out,
24:30
Speaker 8: I mean that is just a scandal that he would
24:33
Speaker 8: preference a party like the Greens that have marched in
24:37
Speaker 8: all of these pro Palestinian rallies weekend after weekend after weekend.
24:41
Speaker 8: Their own members of Parliament have stood up there and
24:45
Speaker 8: been absolutely appalling in some of the things they've said.
24:48
Speaker 8: So Labour's got form on this and people have got
24:51
Speaker 8: to realize that.
24:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, all right, Steve Price, Broman, Bishop, thank you
24:55
Speaker 3: both so much. Now, it's been an emotional twenty four
25:00
Speaker 3: hours for Catholics around the world with Pope Francis's passing.
25:04
Speaker 3: There's been an outpouring of grief in the Vatican as
25:06
Speaker 3: crowds have gathered to pay their respects, and today we
25:10
Speaker 3: also saw footage of the Pope it is coffin for
25:12
Speaker 3: the first time. Now, this may be confronting to look out,
25:16
Speaker 3: so just a warning there, and it is surreal to
25:19
Speaker 3: see these images of the Pope in his coffin. Now,
25:25
Speaker 3: let's bring it now, news cop European correspondent Sophie Ellsworth.
25:28
Speaker 3: She's in the Vatican City and joins us live. Sophie,
25:31
Speaker 3: thank you very much for your time talk us through
25:34
Speaker 3: what's happened today in the past twenty four hours since
25:37
Speaker 3: Pope Francis passed away.
25:41
Speaker 9: Well, Sharrier, as you can see, it's a beautiful day
25:43
Speaker 9: here at Vatican City and there's thousands of people streaming
25:47
Speaker 9: into the Italian capital to remember Pope Francis. There's so
25:52
Speaker 9: many people continuing to flock to the city.
25:55
Speaker 1: The crowds are building very quickly.
25:58
Speaker 9: We've had airports in a dated with people flying in,
26:01
Speaker 9: hotel bookings going crazy. There's a real buzz around here, Sharry,
26:06
Speaker 9: despite it being a very somber time and many people
26:09
Speaker 9: very saddened by the passing.
26:11
Speaker 1: Of Pope Francis.
26:13
Speaker 9: Many people are here also to celebrate his life and
26:16
Speaker 9: also celebrate the work he did leading the church for
26:19
Speaker 9: twelve years. So there's people arriving here at the moment
26:22
Speaker 9: with flowers. There's lots of family members gathering together. There's
26:27
Speaker 9: worshipers who have arrived in groups. But we're seeing that obviously, Shary.
26:32
Speaker 9: There's several days to the funeral yet, but the crowds
26:35
Speaker 9: are already enormous. So people are thinking of coming to
26:38
Speaker 9: Vatican City for the funeral, they need to make their
26:41
Speaker 9: arrangements pretty quickly because this place is really filling up.
26:47
Speaker 3: So yes, as you just said, the funeral is still
26:50
Speaker 3: to come or be held on Saturday, twenty seventh of April.
26:53
Speaker 3: What can you tell us about those details and whether
26:58
Speaker 3: or not the Vatican will fulfill the Pope's wishes to
27:01
Speaker 3: have a more pared back procession, So.
27:06
Speaker 1: Sharry, we don't know one hundred percent sure.
27:08
Speaker 9: The last I heard when I checked here with Vatican
27:11
Speaker 9: everyone saying Saturday is the most likely day for the funeral,
27:14
Speaker 9: but was still waiting for details on that. But yes,
27:17
Speaker 9: he has made his wishes very clear that he wanted
27:20
Speaker 9: a scale back you know, commemoration.
27:23
Speaker 1: Of his life. He didn't want the big fan bed.
27:27
Speaker 9: It traditionally goes with the funerals of pontiffs, so we're
27:31
Speaker 9: waiting to hear those details, but they are being thrashed
27:34
Speaker 9: out as we speak, Shari, So many people are waiting
27:37
Speaker 9: to hear exactly when it will be the details of
27:40
Speaker 9: it and the arrangement that he will want. But tomorrow
27:44
Speaker 9: his body will be for viewing at inside Saint Peter's Basilica,
27:49
Speaker 9: where many people are expected to stream here again hoping
27:52
Speaker 9: to catch a glimpse of him ahead of the funeral,
27:55
Speaker 9: most likely on the weekend.
27:58
Speaker 3: Now, Sophy, turning to the next pope and the process
28:03
Speaker 3: that will happen in terms of how that pope is chosen.
28:07
Speaker 3: Can you talk us through a bit about that process
28:10
Speaker 3: and also who the leading candidates are, at least what's
28:13
Speaker 3: being reported in the media.
28:17
Speaker 1: Sure, Sharry.
28:18
Speaker 9: So there's basically they will start the process, the conclave process,
28:22
Speaker 9: between sixteen and twenty days after the death of Pope Francis,
28:27
Speaker 9: so there's still some time for this official process to begin.
28:31
Speaker 9: There's one hundred and thirty seven cardinals who are eligible
28:34
Speaker 9: to vote. They must be under eighty years of age,
28:38
Speaker 9: so they will gather together at the Sistine Chapel and
28:41
Speaker 9: thrash out their voting in terms.
28:44
Speaker 1: Of pointing in new pontiff.
28:45
Speaker 9: Now, there are a couple of key candidates and one
28:48
Speaker 9: of them is Filipino Cardinal Tagli. Now he's one of
28:52
Speaker 9: the names that keeps being bandied around. He's very progressive,
28:56
Speaker 9: like Pope Francis was on who is in the running
29:00
Speaker 9: for this to take over.
29:02
Speaker 1: From Pope Francis.
29:03
Speaker 9: And also the Vatican Secretary is another one, Petro Harlon.
29:08
Speaker 9: His name is also being very much in the media here.
29:13
Speaker 9: He's been described as a safe set of hands. He
29:16
Speaker 9: is the Vatican Secretary, so he's also another contender. But
29:21
Speaker 9: look Sherry, it's a complicated process. I hope to do
29:25
Speaker 9: it quite quickly because it's not a good look for
29:27
Speaker 9: the Vatican if this process does take a lot of time.
29:31
Speaker 9: But of course everyone is waiting to get through the
29:34
Speaker 9: funeral before.
29:34
Speaker 1: That official process does take place.
29:37
Speaker 3: All right, Sophy Elsworth, thank you so much for joining
29:40
Speaker 3: us live from Vatican City. Now, just a quick update
29:44
Speaker 3: to the Ben Robert Smith appeal, where the Victoria Cross
29:46
Speaker 3: recipient is calling for a retrial for the defamation finding
29:51
Speaker 3: as well to be set aside over what he claims
29:54
Speaker 3: is misconduct. Now, the case is set for the May
29:57
Speaker 3: first and May second, so late next week and nine
30:01
Speaker 3: journalist Nick McKenzie will take the stand and he'll face
30:04
Speaker 3: cross examination. This is all over the audio recording that
30:08
Speaker 3: we revealed where Nick McKenzie said he'd been actively briefed
30:13
Speaker 3: on Ben Roberts Smith's legal strategy.
30:16
Speaker 1: No, I shouldn't tell you.
30:17
Speaker 9: I've just preached my newthics in doing that, like this
30:20
Speaker 9: is where like this is position there if they knew.
30:24
Speaker 1: That, impet you that.
30:28
Speaker 3: And The Australian also reports that Robert Smith's lawyers have
30:31
Speaker 3: subpoenaed the ABC for any communications between Nick McKenzie and
30:36
Speaker 3: the Media Watch program. That's after Media Watch host Linton
30:39
Speaker 3: Besser put forward McKenzie's.
30:41
Speaker 2: Version of events.
30:43
Speaker 1: Right.
30:43
Speaker 3: We'll continue to update you on this story, particularly.
30:46
Speaker 2: Next week, but for now still to come.
30:49
Speaker 3: The director of Freshwater Strategy, the polling company behind the
30:53
Speaker 3: Liberals campaign, will break down where the election's up to. Plus,
30:57
Speaker 3: Ray Hadley will fire up about Minique right, and I'll
31:00
Speaker 3: show you the new footage where she refused to take
31:03
Speaker 3: questions on three separate occasions.
31:07
Speaker 2: Today, Ray Hadley and that footage after this quick break
31:14
Speaker 2: welcome back. Well you would have seen this by now.
31:17
Speaker 3: Of course, Minniku Ran turning her back on Laura Jay's
31:20
Speaker 3: this morning.
31:22
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, we don't want to interrupt, but we just
31:24
Speaker 2: wanted to.
31:26
Speaker 7: Yeah, we are well in the interest of fitters transparency.
31:30
Speaker 3: We just thought maybe we just want to know how
31:32
Speaker 3: your campaign's going.
31:33
Speaker 2: This morning's going well.
31:35
Speaker 1: Thanks, Lauren.
31:35
Speaker 4: I am here to engage your photos.
31:37
Speaker 1: Through a prepole.
31:38
Speaker 2: It's a little litery.
31:39
Speaker 7: Yeah, so I'm not sure that it's really ideal for
31:42
Speaker 7: you to be interrupting the process.
31:47
Speaker 2: Have you had any other have you ready?
31:51
Speaker 3: Well, this was live on air and it quickly made
31:54
Speaker 3: the news. So you'd think Minnie Ran would have learnt
31:57
Speaker 3: her lesson after that, but sadly not, because then she
32:00
Speaker 3: refused to speak to The Australian Today as well.
32:05
Speaker 2: I towers play so arre.
32:08
Speaker 1: You from Movie Australia. We're not taking it that way through?
32:14
Speaker 6: Can I details that I can refer?
32:18
Speaker 3: I mean, she's right there. Why can't she speak for herself?
32:22
Speaker 3: But that wasn't aw Here's another clip where Minnie Grin
32:26
Speaker 3: refused to engage with a voter about her own voting record.
32:30
Speaker 2: In parliament rather engage.
32:38
Speaker 1: Experts. There's lots of one.
32:46
Speaker 9: Excuse me, I just refer you to the next website
32:49
Speaker 9: that statements.
32:51
Speaker 2: As we just stick to.
32:52
Speaker 1: Talking to.
32:54
Speaker 2: I'm a voter too, I would refer you to her website.
32:59
Speaker 2: So much for transparency.
33:00
Speaker 3: And on that note, Ray Hardley joins me, Now, Ray,
33:03
Speaker 3: what is wrong with these deals?
33:05
Speaker 2: And how frustrating is Manique rayt Well, it's.
33:08
Speaker 10: One thing to say too, that a light for Laura Jays,
33:10
Speaker 10: who is an outstanding journalist and the Australian journalist. Look,
33:13
Speaker 10: I'm here to talk to my constituents, but then we're
33:16
Speaker 10: one of the constituents. What to put a question to us?
33:18
Speaker 10: She refused that as well as polite as Laura isn't
33:22
Speaker 10: the main I think she may be wanting to ask
33:24
Speaker 10: her about the clandestine stealing of election posters in the
33:28
Speaker 10: dark of night, allegedly by someone very close to her.
33:31
Speaker 10: So look, if she is returned to Parliament, it will
33:35
Speaker 10: be one of the great disgraces to conduct yourself in
33:38
Speaker 10: that fashion two weeks out from the election and not
33:42
Speaker 10: allow questioning from a journalist or even your constituents. But
33:47
Speaker 10: there's another story breaking this afternoon Tonight, James Willis from
33:50
Speaker 10: the Telegraph had just published that Nikola Boola has now
33:54
Speaker 10: confirmed that she paid the four non English speaking gentlemen
33:58
Speaker 10: to put up core flutes around the seat of Bradfield
34:00
Speaker 10: in northern Sydney. She's also refusing to exceeded the request
34:04
Speaker 10: from the power company to take the core flutes down.
34:07
Speaker 10: She says, no, legally, I'm not going to take them down.
34:09
Speaker 10: She's confirmed she paid for it.
34:11
Speaker 1: Now.
34:11
Speaker 10: This is a woman she hasn't been to Parliament yet.
34:14
Speaker 10: She lost last time and she hopefully will lose this
34:16
Speaker 10: time as well, who, of course, is most notoriously known
34:19
Speaker 10: for making sexually inappropriate comments to a nine year old hairdresser.
34:24
Speaker 10: And she's brazen.
34:26
Speaker 1: She's bold.
34:26
Speaker 10: She's out there and now admitting that she paid for
34:29
Speaker 10: these blakes who told people in the street where they're
34:32
Speaker 10: putting up to you know, I can't use the expression,
34:35
Speaker 10: but everyone knows what they said to them in the
34:38
Speaker 10: most derogatory way. She's paying these oaths, these thugs to
34:42
Speaker 10: abuse her constituents. If she wins, that'll be a bigger
34:45
Speaker 10: disgrace than Menique Rhyan, I would think.
34:47
Speaker 2: And that story's on the Telly website now.
34:49
Speaker 3: But then we learn that Clive Palmer is preferencing the
34:53
Speaker 3: deals over the coalition.
34:55
Speaker 2: I mean, what's wrong with this guy?
34:57
Speaker 10: Well is a gift that keeps on giving Clive. I've
35:00
Speaker 10: often said that people are under more pressure than his
35:02
Speaker 10: belt buckle. But in relation to Clive, I only fell
35:07
Speaker 10: based over apex. I thought, now it must be a misprint.
35:09
Speaker 10: Someone's got a a at, so to speak. But it's right.
35:13
Speaker 10: In fact, one of his candidates has now withdrawn and
35:16
Speaker 10: he's lending their support to the liberal candidate in that area.
35:20
Speaker 10: I just don't know, given that he's a mining magnate,
35:23
Speaker 10: given that he gets back to his money from that
35:26
Speaker 10: and other interests, how he could support the Teals is
35:28
Speaker 10: beyond me. I mean, please, Clive, I know you've never
35:32
Speaker 10: listened to me, but for once in your life, do
35:34
Speaker 10: the right thing and change that immediately.
35:36
Speaker 1: Please.
35:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, reprint the heart of vote cards, which is what the.
35:38
Speaker 10: One one nation have done.
35:40
Speaker 1: They've done.
35:40
Speaker 10: Good luck to them.
35:41
Speaker 2: Yeah.
35:41
Speaker 3: So I mean, looking at the Teals, what's your sense
35:44
Speaker 3: of how many of them will lose their seats this election?
35:48
Speaker 3: Because the TiAl movement really was a rejection by many
35:52
Speaker 3: Conservatives of Scott Morrison.
35:54
Speaker 2: I like Scott Morrison. You like Scott Morrison. You know
35:57
Speaker 2: the public did it?
35:58
Speaker 10: Yeah, well, you know they'd been there for a while,
36:01
Speaker 10: so they decided the public that twenty twenty two was
36:03
Speaker 10: the end of the section for him. But look the
36:06
Speaker 10: teals while ever they have the taint of funding from
36:10
Speaker 10: Climate two hundred drooped around their neck. They can't be
36:15
Speaker 10: taken seriously. It's what I say all the time. They say,
36:19
Speaker 10: not as we do, but do as we say. And
36:22
Speaker 10: by the way, I did hear your introduction about the polls,
36:25
Speaker 10: which I was most interested. I did a piece this
36:27
Speaker 10: morning on the Daily Telegraph website about all of this.
36:30
Speaker 10: And you don't have to go back to John Howard
36:32
Speaker 10: in twenty nineteen. Scott Morrison, from the day the election
36:36
Speaker 10: was called in April until the day it was run,
36:39
Speaker 10: lost every poll, not just the news poll. There are
36:42
Speaker 10: six or seven polls conducted by repidable companies. He lost
36:45
Speaker 10: every one. It was fifty two, forty eight, fifty one,
36:48
Speaker 10: forty nine all the way through, and then a Galaxy
36:51
Speaker 10: exit poll on the day of the election scored it
36:55
Speaker 10: fifty two to forty eight to Bill Shorten. Now I'm
36:58
Speaker 10: not going to bag Poles was they're trying to do
37:00
Speaker 10: their best with the information supplied to them. But if
37:03
Speaker 10: we and I've been guilty of it on this program
37:05
Speaker 10: in another area of saying, oh, the Poles aren't looking good,
37:08
Speaker 10: I had to give myself an uppercut when I went
37:10
Speaker 10: through the twenty nineteen results to say, well, hang on
37:13
Speaker 10: a sec. Morrison was never going to win. But he won.
37:17
Speaker 2: But it's like everyone forgets that.
37:18
Speaker 3: It's like there's this case of voter amnesia where journalists go, oh,
37:22
Speaker 3: Peter Dutton's running out of time. You know, even at
37:25
Speaker 3: very credible publications, Oh, Peter Dutton's running out of time
37:28
Speaker 3: because the Poles say he's.
37:29
Speaker 2: Going to lose.
37:30
Speaker 3: Well, you know that's not an accurate reflection necessarily. I
37:35
Speaker 3: think it's still probably looking like I hung Parliament at
37:37
Speaker 3: this point.
37:38
Speaker 1: I don't look.
37:39
Speaker 10: I don't think that, even me allowing for the Poles
37:42
Speaker 10: being wrong, that Peter can rule a majority. I think
37:45
Speaker 10: the best he can hope for the minority complete show
37:48
Speaker 10: that would be a shock and still the favorite option
37:51
Speaker 10: is Anthony Albanezi minority. But you know, I think after
37:55
Speaker 10: the first week we all took a deep breath and
37:57
Speaker 10: thought that wasn't a great week, and then the second,
37:59
Speaker 10: then the third. But you know, I went past a
38:03
Speaker 10: polling birth today in the Hills area to have a
38:06
Speaker 10: bit of a look around. The place was packed. I've
38:09
Speaker 10: never seen so many people pre polling as I saw today.
38:13
Speaker 10: I mean, that's a safe liberal seat you out that
38:15
Speaker 10: way with Alex Hawking command. But the number of people
38:19
Speaker 10: who were out there, and that's one of the keys
38:20
Speaker 10: to the last couple of elections, the number of pre
38:23
Speaker 10: poll votes that are taken. People have got used to that.
38:27
Speaker 10: The only que up even for a sausage sandwhich at
38:29
Speaker 10: the public school on a Saturday morning, they go and
38:30
Speaker 10: do it now when they've got a bit more.
38:32
Speaker 2: Leisure time, convenient the case. But yeah, it has changed.
38:36
Speaker 3: It's not a snapshot in time on that particular day.
38:39
Speaker 3: It is now the majority of voters vote in advance
38:42
Speaker 3: that was at the last election.
38:43
Speaker 2: It'll be even bigger now, right, Great to see you.
38:46
Speaker 3: We'll see you next week and it'll be her last
38:49
Speaker 3: show until before the election, so we'll.
38:52
Speaker 2: Get a final prediction then.
38:53
Speaker 10: Well, I can only keep my fingers crossed. I think
38:56
Speaker 10: people know what I'm hoping for. Whether I get my
38:58
Speaker 10: wishes another thing still to come.
39:01
Speaker 3: Dave Sharma will give his verdict on the latest contest
39:04
Speaker 3: between alban Easy and Dutton, plus how safe labor seats
39:08
Speaker 3: could fold the coalision. Freshwater Strategy director Leo Shanahan will
39:12
Speaker 3: join us next. Welcome back, and joining me now is
39:18
Speaker 3: director of Freshwater Strategy, Leo Shanahan.
39:21
Speaker 2: Leo, great to see you.
39:22
Speaker 3: Thank Sure, of course, yours is the company that does
39:25
Speaker 3: the polling for the Liberals, but you specifically aren't the pollster,
39:29
Speaker 3: as I said earlier in the show.
39:30
Speaker 2: That's Michael Turner.
39:31
Speaker 3: But I want to ask you about this disconnect between
39:35
Speaker 3: what we're seeing in the national polls and what the
39:38
Speaker 3: seat by seat analysis is telling us about where this
39:41
Speaker 3: election is up to.
39:43
Speaker 11: Yeah, well, I mean, I'm not going to go into
39:44
Speaker 11: seat by seat I don't honestly, I don't know, but
39:47
Speaker 11: I would say this the national polls. There's nothing wrong
39:50
Speaker 11: with the national polls as such that you know, they're
39:54
Speaker 11: done by very good pulses. I think that sometimes interpretations
39:58
Speaker 11: of national polls, though, can lead people into thinking there
40:02
Speaker 11: are certain there's necessary trends on seat by seat basis
40:06
Speaker 11: that don't necessarily exist. As you've said in your editorial.
40:11
Speaker 11: It can be a much more difficult fight on a
40:15
Speaker 11: seat to seat basis, much more hand to hand combat.
40:18
Speaker 11: I guess we're seeing in this election for seats that
40:22
Speaker 11: perhaps have higher margins that fall outside of the classic
40:27
Speaker 11: electoral landscape. So you might have a swing of say
40:31
Speaker 11: five percent, but seats at ten percent plus might actually
40:36
Speaker 11: be targets in this election. And I think that's changed
40:41
Speaker 11: a lot in recent elections. The electoral landscape has meant
40:44
Speaker 11: there's all these seats all over the place that are
40:47
Speaker 11: targets that perhaps weren't in the past.
40:50
Speaker 3: And even seats right next to each other might have
40:52
Speaker 3: completely different local issues. And one could be a target
40:56
Speaker 3: seat for the Liberal Party, but one right adjacent to
40:59
Speaker 3: it would be even if it's marginis smaller, you know,
41:03
Speaker 3: it doesn't hope to win.
41:04
Speaker 11: Yeah, And I think that's a lot to do with
41:05
Speaker 11: the sitting members and the makeup in those the small
41:09
Speaker 11: differences that occur in those seats, and not on a
41:12
Speaker 11: demographic basis, but sitting members, the work they've put in
41:16
Speaker 11: their recognition matters a lot.
41:18
Speaker 10: Well.
41:19
Speaker 3: Cost of living, as we know, is the biggest issue
41:21
Speaker 3: affecting Australians right now, and it's followed in your research
41:25
Speaker 3: at some distance really housing consistently.
41:28
Speaker 2: So, yeah, and.
41:29
Speaker 3: Most voters believe that Australia is heading in the wrong direction.
41:34
Speaker 3: That's fifty five percent of Australians.
41:38
Speaker 2: So Leah, given this, these are the critical issues this campaign.
41:42
Speaker 3: Why hasn't the Coalition been able to fully capitalize on this?
41:47
Speaker 5: Well?
41:47
Speaker 11: I think for starters, the Coalition has actually done pretty
41:50
Speaker 11: well to be in this position, and at times I
41:52
Speaker 11: think people need to sit back and recognize that fact
41:55
Speaker 11: that what you know, they're being asked to do is
41:58
Speaker 11: something that hasn't been done since pre war in Australia,
42:01
Speaker 11: which is great to pressure. Yes, exactly. So. I think
42:04
Speaker 11: that though a couple of factors have helped Labor and
42:07
Speaker 11: the run into the campaign. The interest rate cut I
42:10
Speaker 11: think undeniably helped. That was, you know, something that people
42:13
Speaker 11: could recognize, it's money in the pocket. I think competing
42:18
Speaker 11: arguments around tax as some people have gone, well, they've
42:21
Speaker 11: got this, they're offering this tax cut, they're offering this
42:24
Speaker 11: tax cut. Is there any real difference between the two.
42:27
Speaker 11: And I think that as well, the framing of Peter
42:30
Speaker 11: Dutton by the Labor Party at times, this Trumpian notion
42:34
Speaker 11: hasn't really helped, So I think those are factors that
42:37
Speaker 11: have hurt.
42:39
Speaker 2: But you know, the Madi scare and other campaigns.
42:43
Speaker 11: And as you said, healthcare is still a major issue
42:45
Speaker 11: in this country and rightly so.
42:49
Speaker 3: Now your research or freshwater research rather shows the Liberals
42:54
Speaker 3: picking up some safe labor seats. Can you tell us
42:58
Speaker 3: what the seats are that the targeting here?
43:01
Speaker 11: Well, I mean look on our last model, which was
43:03
Speaker 11: public polling we've done, which we do as well with
43:05
Speaker 11: the Financial Review. We had seats like Ashton, Chisholm, McEwen
43:12
Speaker 11: in Victoria, Gilmore Patterson w A. Bullwinkle in NT which
43:20
Speaker 11: is hard to poll, but Bengari's it definitely you know,
43:23
Speaker 11: obviously a target there Ryan in Queensland. So these were
43:26
Speaker 11: seats which you know we've made clear on the swing
43:30
Speaker 11: to be projected, the coalition could could well pick up,
43:34
Speaker 11: but it should be set. On our national polling, the
43:38
Speaker 11: coalition is short of seventy seats as well. It's picking
43:42
Speaker 11: up only about five or six sorry, but it's short.
43:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, it gets to around sixty six on
43:49
Speaker 3: your national based on the uniform swing. Yeah, but obviously
43:52
Speaker 3: that's the national pole and not the seat BA seat
43:55
Speaker 3: research that we've been speaking about tonight. All right, Leah Shanahan,
43:58
Speaker 3: great to see you, Thank you very much for the insights.
44:00
Speaker 3: Thank surey all right, quick break now, and then Dave
44:03
Speaker 3: Sharma will give his verdict on alban Ezi and Dutton's
44:07
Speaker 3: latest clash, and in it Albanizi is pressed on his
44:12
Speaker 3: deal with the Greens. That's after this quick break. Welcome back,
44:20
Speaker 3: and I'm joined now by Liberal Senator Dave Sharma.
44:23
Speaker 2: Dave, great to see you. Now.
44:25
Speaker 3: While we've been on air tonight, there was another debate
44:28
Speaker 3: between Peter Dutton and Anthony Alberizi and Channel nine. I
44:32
Speaker 3: obviously didn't watch it, but I'm told that it is
44:35
Speaker 3: that it was such a dull and boring debate, but
44:40
Speaker 3: that this was one of the key moments when Albanizie
44:43
Speaker 3: was pressed on the preference deal with the Greens. Have
44:45
Speaker 3: a look, will you do a deal with minority parties?
44:50
Speaker 2: Prime Minister, No, mister Dutton, not.
44:52
Speaker 4: With the Greens, but with independence. And that's not a
44:55
Speaker 4: truthful answer from the Prime Minister there. This is it's
44:58
Speaker 4: not that the Labor Party will fall ou themselves to
45:00
Speaker 4: do a deal with the Greens. It's just it's just
45:04
Speaker 4: you preference them.
45:05
Speaker 6: Preference truth put forward, put forward by Peter.
45:11
Speaker 2: Dave Sharma.
45:11
Speaker 3: The reality is, of course Albanesi would do a deal
45:14
Speaker 3: with the Greens. If there's a hung Parliament, will have
45:16
Speaker 3: a radical Green left government.
45:20
Speaker 6: Of course, you would, just as Julia Gillard did in
45:23
Speaker 6: twenty ten. And I would point out that Anthony Alberanesi
45:26
Speaker 6: is doing deals with the Greens in nearly every seat
45:28
Speaker 6: around the country right now, preference deals. You've had people
45:31
Speaker 6: like Mark Dreyfus and Mike Freelander, senior members of the
45:35
Speaker 6: Australian Jewish community who've been pleaded with by leaders in
45:38
Speaker 6: the Australia Jeish community not to preference the Greens, but
45:41
Speaker 6: they've gone ahead and done it anywhere anyway. And that's
45:43
Speaker 6: a Labor headquarters direction and instigation.
45:48
Speaker 2: I mean.
45:48
Speaker 3: Another moment tonight that's been reported is that Anthony Alberesi
45:53
Speaker 3: was accused by Peter Dutton.
45:54
Speaker 2: Dutton said to him, you.
45:56
Speaker 3: Can't lie straight in bed, so it really went him
46:00
Speaker 3: about this, this lying that Albanesi keeps being untruthful in
46:05
Speaker 3: the campaign. I heard Andrew Clonelle on a earlier tonight
46:08
Speaker 3: and that was even something that he was frustrated about,
46:11
Speaker 3: because you know, this can't become a feature of campaigns
46:14
Speaker 3: moving forward.
46:15
Speaker 2: What do you think about this, Well, I.
46:17
Speaker 6: Think Peter Dunden was right to call this out. I mean,
46:20
Speaker 6: you know, I've found it incredibly frustrating during one of
46:23
Speaker 6: the first debates, and Anthony Alberenesi repeated this tonight. Is
46:27
Speaker 6: claims that the previous coalition government cut health and education. No,
46:32
Speaker 6: the previous coalation government didn't increase at the rate of
46:34
Speaker 6: spending that labor hoped it would be increased at, but
46:37
Speaker 6: a dollar amount that is increasing year on years, Peter
46:40
Speaker 6: out and pointed out is not a cut in anyone's
46:42
Speaker 6: terms and terminology. But Anthony Alberanesi repeats that, you know,
46:45
Speaker 6: they repeat the many scare lie. You know, it seems
46:49
Speaker 6: like they have no record to run on because the
46:52
Speaker 6: only thing they can try on, the only thing they're
46:54
Speaker 6: trying to campaign on is you know, a fear of
46:58
Speaker 6: Peter Dunnen and the Liberals. But you'd think first term
47:00
Speaker 6: government would have some records to point to, some achievements
47:03
Speaker 6: they could offer up to the electorate, some prospect of
47:06
Speaker 6: what they might do better in the next term. But
47:08
Speaker 6: there is none of this from Anthony Albanezy. I mean,
47:10
Speaker 6: the record is terrible and he has no vision for
47:12
Speaker 6: the next three years.
47:14
Speaker 3: Now, you were, of course the Liberal MP in Wentworth
47:18
Speaker 3: in Sydney's East, which you lost at the last election
47:22
Speaker 3: to the allegri Spender, and now of course you're a
47:24
Speaker 3: Liberal senator. You must be following the Wentworth contest closely.
47:29
Speaker 3: How do you see it going at the moment between
47:32
Speaker 3: Spender and Ronox, the Liberal candidate.
47:36
Speaker 6: Well, a couple of things.
47:37
Speaker 8: Look.
47:37
Speaker 6: Firstly, the Teals and associated groups so like you know,
47:41
Speaker 6: Climate two hundred and the Smart Energy Council and Danny
47:44
Speaker 6: Lick and others are spending a fortune year and that's
47:47
Speaker 6: clearly you know, that's repeat of twenty twenty two. One
47:52
Speaker 6: thing I've noticed though, is that the Teal candidates across
47:54
Speaker 6: the country seem to be quite happily fiarting laws, whether
47:58
Speaker 6: it's tearing down their opposite's campaign materials, whether it's putting
48:02
Speaker 6: up their own campaign materials on osgrid property which is
48:06
Speaker 6: illegal or at least unauthorized. They seem to take the
48:10
Speaker 6: view that the laws don't apply to them, which suggests
48:12
Speaker 6: to me that they are worried because they're throwing the
48:14
Speaker 6: kitchen sink at this They've thrown out the rule book,
48:18
Speaker 6: and I think they know that they don't have a
48:20
Speaker 6: record to run on. You know, they were elected with
48:22
Speaker 6: this great hope that they would do politics differently. Instead,
48:25
Speaker 6: they've turned out to be some of the most cynical
48:27
Speaker 6: operatives and they've achieved nothing in the Parliament.
48:30
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think many people would argue with
48:32
Speaker 3: you about that, but just specifically how you think Wentworth
48:36
Speaker 3: is going at the moment and whether it is winnable
48:38
Speaker 3: for the Liberals at this election.
48:41
Speaker 6: I think it's absolutely winnable. I think we've got a
48:43
Speaker 6: strong candidate in Ronox who's been working hard to get
48:47
Speaker 6: to know the community or introduce yourself as a political
48:49
Speaker 6: candidate to the community. I think parts of this electorate
48:54
Speaker 6: are very unhappy with the Albanezy government. The Jewish community
48:57
Speaker 6: because of this government's demonization of his and it's fairly
49:01
Speaker 6: into combat antisemitism. But also many people who are dealing
49:05
Speaker 6: with high interest rates, infation, all those sorts of things.
49:08
Speaker 3: Cust of living is an issue everywhere, all right. Dave Shamoor,
49:11
Speaker 3: out of time, so great to see you again. And
49:13
Speaker 3: that's all we've got time for right now, here's Paul Murray.