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Episode 378 - 10/21/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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  welcome to episode 378 of the All.
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  Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
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  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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  Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena
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  guys, as the early portion of our week rolls.
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  On. And did you know tonight is the
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  opening night of the NBA season? Of course, you probably knew
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  that, but I do have an NBA play for you There's.
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  Only two games. There's a huge slate.
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  Tomorrow with 12 games overall, but I do.
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  Have a play for. One of the two games listed for
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  tonight, so stay tuned for that, including some good system
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  matches. As well as a good rhythm edge.
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  On this total tonight, so again, stay tuned.
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  I'm also going to. Talk to you about a really cool
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  resource when it comes to betting the NBA because.
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  We're not too far off from college basketball and.
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  If you've ever done some. College betting with me for
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  college hoops you know Ken Pom Ken Pomeroy is the best when it
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  comes to data analytics looking at pace.
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  Offensive, defensive categories, we definitely.
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  Apply the Ken prom Ken pom predictions as.
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  Well, you can get the fan match tab.
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  I'll give you the. Predicted final scores.
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  There's a resource in the NBA. That's kind of like Ken Palm.
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  It's not. Quite in terms of predictions,
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  but it gives us a lot of good. Insight into pace, offensive,
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  defensive efficiency. So stay tuned for that.
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  I'll give you a little tip there.
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  It's about the NBA. And then aside from the NBA
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  kicking off tonight, I do have a three pack of college football
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  games for you coming up here on Saturday, one of which we talked
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  about yesterday and. I hope that you played it
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  because just as we. Thought that money line did take
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  up so you could have gotten a -? 135 money line yesterday, Now
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  it's around -150 but we do have the play we mentioned yesterday.
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  I'll recap that and then adding two more bets. 1 is a very sharp
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  dog with a reverse line move. The other one is a very sharp.
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  Favorite with a super sharp fade?
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  The trendy dog. Play.
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  Also, if you can get access to this one book, they're offering
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  a much better number than the rest of the market.
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  So NBA opening night College football week 9 sharp report.
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  With a few plays here. To put in before hopefully the
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  lines move and we can get some closing line value.
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  Now, looking back to our last night, guys, I tell you what,
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  that was one of the most disgusting efforts I've seen in
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  a long time. The final score didn't really
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  show. It obviously lost Houston.
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  So O and 1 -, 1 unit Texans plus 3 1/2 + 3.
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  They end up losing 27 and 19, but they had so many
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  opportunities. Seattle turned it over 4 times.
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  Houston could not score for their literally with their.
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  Lives depending on it so. CJ.
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  Stroud I really don't I. Remember his rookie year?
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  He was really good. He was.
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  One of the most disappointing, lackluster quarterbacks that
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  I've sweat in quite a long time. Again, maybe he's got some.
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  Excuses. A lot of his wide receivers got
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  hurt, but the Texans? Really just couldn't get
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  anything going even though they had all these chances.
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  To cover the numbers. So we'll throw that one away.
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  And again, I'm kicking myself for not playing Detroit.
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  If you remember last night, they're talking about the pod on
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  yesterday. I'm like, hey, I don't want
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  anything to do with. That Detroit game because rhythm
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  had a good edge with. Tampa in the points, and they
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  were kind of an inflated dog, primetime dog.
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  But then that line did move toward Detroit -4 1/2 up to -5
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  1/2 minus. 6 So it's pretty clear.
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  There was a reverse line move. Fade, the trendy dog planned.
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  Detroit under sails. Through which was surprising
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  because that total ticked up late, 53 1/2 up to 5450. 4 1/2
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  but I had that that layoff. Opportunity for me.
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  Again, I was telling myself that when I'm watching the.
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  Game I should have taken. Detroit in the points, but
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  either way, guys, O and 1 -, 1 unit Texans let us down.
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  So we'll take a few. Days off from the NFL.
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  We'll come back on Thursday. I'm looking at the Thursday game
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  right now. Minnesota at the Chargers.
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  Chargers are around A3. Point favorite.
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  We don't know. Who's going to play quarterback
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  from Minnesota? Whether JJ McCarthy.
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  Will be ready or? If it'll be Carson Wentz again,
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  but we'll stay tuned for that one.
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  But between now and then, guys, we got to talk some NBA opening
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  night. So let me just tell you my
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  thoughts on NBA. Just generally speaking, I'm
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  going to give you this. Resource that I lean on quite a
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  bit. But I do like betting NBA.
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  To me it's a pick. Your spot type sport and I was
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  actually talking with someone yesterday asking why.
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  Haven't you bet more NHL? And the reason why I.
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  Haven't bet NHL is because if you go back a few years ago.
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  I had one of my best years ever. In the NHL, where like every
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  sharp move came through was kind of like baseball, where a lot of
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  favorites really crushed it. And over last year last.
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  Couple years I would say. It just become really erratic
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  like. I'll give you some examples.
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  You look at yesterday, the Rangers against Minnesota, they
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  were minus. 120 got steamed up to -160 they lose 3 to.
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  One then you had a good sharp line move on Carolina going from
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  like a dog to fave. They lose 4 to 1.
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  So I love hockey. I grew up playing hockey.
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  I rode the bench from a high school team.
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  You know, it wasn't that great, but I love the sport just in
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  general. I'm a big Bruins fan.
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  We have Brad Marshand coming back to the Garden here for
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  tonight. But even though you love a
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  sport, if you don't feel like you have an edge.
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  And it's just not cashing. I'm not going to.
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  Force it. So that's the.
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  Reason why I'm kind. Of been laying off hockey.
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  Maybe we'll pick our spots here and there, but I do like to bet
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  NBA more than hockey. I think NBA is definitely a
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  data-driven sport. The one resource that I.
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  Wanted to give you guys was ESPN Hollinger all you have to do is
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  Google ESPN Hollinger HOLLINGER and Hollinger has these team
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  stats and if you go to the page right now it's going to be blank
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  because the season hasn't started but if you.
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  Go back to last year. 2024-2025, you're going to get a lot of
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  these. Great.
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  Statistical categories, so pace assist.
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  Turnover ratio Offensive, Defensive.
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  Rebounding, Effective field goal percentage, offensive,
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  offensive, defensive efficiency. So I lean a lot more on totals,
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  I would say. To me.
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  Just in terms of what's. Cash for me in the.
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  Past it's been more totals than it has been sides and what I.
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  Like to do is. Kind of pay attention to the
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  market and then. See which?
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  Direction the line is going. Again, similar to what we do
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  with all. The other sports?
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  Look at the bet splits. Then look at inside from system
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  plays just. Historically speaking, validate
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  that with the ESPN. Hollinger stats and then.
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  Of course, look toward juice reel and Rhythm.
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  To see if we have kind of an overlapping edge here.
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  So what I laid on tonight was the 10:00 game.
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  Warriors and the Lakers. So opening night, obviously now
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  we have. Seen a line move toward the
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  Warriors? I think it's mostly.
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  LeBron, because LeBron, I think he has sciatica and he's out for
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  a while. So he's not.
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  Going to play. But we did see Warriors.
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  Open at at one point -4 now it's.
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  Flipped to Warriors. -2 1/2 I'm going to focus on the.
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  Total though, because the total looks sneaky, sneaky sharp to
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  me. Because if you look at we've
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  seen with the total, it opened at 2:20. 5 1/2 and.
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  You've seen it pretty much only go up, so it's gone up to two,
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  26226 1/2. Now the important thing to me.
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  Is that if you? If you look at one book in
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  particular, like pretty much every book across the market is
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  2/26, 2:20. 6 1/2. But if you look at Bet MGM, it's
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  over 220. 5 1/2. -115 to the over.
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  So this is the importance. Again, of getting the best
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  price, getting the best odds. So movement liability over
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  you'll get the circa splits. 67% of tickets.
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  But 87% of. Dollars are on this over.
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  So out in Vegas, you're getting a really good low.
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  Bets higher dollar split. Toward the over, both teams are
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  rested and healthy. Obviously no LeBron, but again,
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  it's your. First game of the year, pretty
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  much everyone's good to go. You shouldn't have any load
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  management issues. The other angle here is a short
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  spread, so again. Going from Lakers -4.
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  Flipping to Warriors. -2 1/2. That would be a short spread,
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  and typically you want. Overs with short.
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  Spreads because theoretically it's going to be a tight game.
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  Close back and forth scoring. Competitive.
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  Maybe you get overtime when you have a big spread like a team.
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  -10 - 1. 15 Typically you lean. Under just generally.
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  Speaking because usually that team gets a big.
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  Takes up, takes their foot off the gas.
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  Then we get to some of these ESPN Hollinger some angles here,
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  so the one. That I found from last year is.
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  Both these teams are really good in terms.
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  Of offensive efficiency. So offensive efficiency last.
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  Year The Lakers were 12th and the Golden State Warriors were.
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  15th so again top 15 then we get to some system place here I got.
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  Quite a few so if you look at. One system match when the Over
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  under the total rises at least 1/2 point or more.
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  So technically at BET MGM. It hasn't moved because it
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  opened 225 1/2. Still 225 1/2, but again, that's
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  an outlier so I want to attack that number.
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  The rest of the Markets 2/26, 2:20. 6 1/2 but as long as the
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  total just. Rise at least 1/2.
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  Point last year in those. Situations where the total.
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  Ticks up. The over went 331 and two 6556%.
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  That is a 6% ROI if. You had about 100 bucks.
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  Every time the total ticked up a half point.
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  You would have made. $3500 last year.
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  In the NBA, so that. Matches with this over the.
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  Other one that we. Look at a sweet spot over.
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  So if the total is between 2:25 and 2:20. 9.
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  And both teams made the playoffs the previous year.
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  Last year that. Over went 70 and 30. 666% with a
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  26% ROI. So also warriors.
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  Lakers made the playoffs that would match as well.
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  So we got 2. Really good system matches from.
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  Last year we have ESPN. Hollinger good offensive
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  efficiency rested. And healthy short spread, good
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  splits from circa. Again, we've seen the total only
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  pretty much tick up across the market.
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  We can take advantage of Bet MGM giving us a slightly better
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  number than the rest of the market.
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  And then this is what really. Sent me to this.
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  Over I popped open rhythm and I have two green star over rhythm
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  recommendations. The first one.
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  Is 226.4, so it's not a huge advantage over the 220. 5 1/2
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  but technically it's about a point but my.
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  Other system match is 228.2 so. Both of my rhythm plays are
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  green stars. They're both recommending the
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  over. And they're about a point to
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  about 3 points above what the current number is.
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  So you add it all up here guys. Again, prime time game heavily
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  bet. We got liability and movement
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  toward the over. We got system matches, we got
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  rhythm. Advantages And again, we can
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  really take advantage of a book that's a little bit lower.
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  Than everyone else so. First NBA play of the year for
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  me. You're.
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  Welcome to Tail. Fade, do whatever you like.
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  But I'm sweating the. Over 2. 25 1/2 on the Warriors
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  and Lakers, and again. You got to get.
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  It at BET MGM that's over 225 1/2.
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  At -115. The rest of the markets?
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  Two 26226 1/2 Now let's flip over to some.
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  College. Football because as we get and
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  continue our routine here when it comes to trying to get good
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  numbers early in the week. Of course we have Monday
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  football on Mondays. Tuesdays.
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  What do we do? We look at the early sharp.
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  Report for college football So believe it or not, we are now
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  at. Week 9 in college football.
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  The season is really flying. By and, I have 3 bets for you,
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  one of which we talked about yesterday, two more that I added
• 11:10
  and wrote about for the Sharp report for visa.com and I've
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  already bet. All of these and put them into
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  the Juice Real app. And by the way, I must say I've
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  been on a bit of a hot. Streak here recently and I've
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  seen way more of you sign up to get the 499 a week.
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  All systems go, best bet pick SO.
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  Thank you, it means a lot to. Me, I really, really.
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  Appreciate it. Now the game we talked.
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  About yesterday, I'll just give the full recap.
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  Iowa State money line. BYU This is a 330 game on
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  Saturday. Right now it's the most heavily
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  bet game of the week. BYU comes in seven and O.
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  They're ranked 11th. Just took down Utah 2421,
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  winning outright as a four and a half.
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  Point home dog. Meanwhile, Iowa State.
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  Five and two they started. Five and O they've.
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  Lost two straight. Just lost to Colorado. 24 to 17
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  as a three-point Rd. favorite. Now what have we seen across the
• 11:55
  market? Well, as I mentioned yesterday,
• 11:57
  Iowa State open very short. 1 1/2 point home favorite and
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  right off the bat that's kind of fishy to me.
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  Because even if you account for home field advantage, isn't BYU
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  the far better team? They're.
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  Ranked they're. Undefeated Iowa State is only
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  five and two. They're unranked and they've
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  lost two straight. Still, we open Iowa State as a 1
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  1/2 point home favorite. And the public says the.
• 12:19
  Wrong team is favored. Nearly 2/3 of tickets are going
• 12:22
  with BYU and the points. But here's the thing.
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  This line isn't down to a pick. It hasn't hopped the fence.
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  To BYU. -1 - 2. It's only gone further up toward
• 12:31
  Iowa State. So even though 2/3 of bets are
• 12:33
  on BYU, Iowa State open as a favorite. -1 1/2.
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  Now they're up to -2 1/2 and not only has the line.
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  Risen in favor of the cyclones, but a lot of the market is
• 12:42
  juicing up. Iowa State -2 1/2 -. 115 or -120
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  Some books now even. At -3.
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  So this smells to me like an epic fade.
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  The trendy dog. Play Remember the public.
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  Typically wants to bet favorites because they are quote UN quote.
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  The better team when they load up on a dog, that's that.
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  Super super thick public bias. That we want to go against.
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  You'll get a split to DraftKings.
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  Only about 1/3 of tickets but. 87% of money Huge, huge.
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  Split on Iowa State. At circa 62% bets 80% of the
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  money. So good low.
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  Bets higher dollars from both DraftKings and Circa on Iowa
• 13:17
  State. Now I mentioned yesterday how a
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  money lined Iowa State at -135 and my whole thought there was
• 13:24
  hey, this thing make might creep up a little.
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  Bit more so let's. Put in a money line price at its
• 13:29
  lowest watermark. Well, exactly that is what is
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  what's happened here, because after putting in -135
• 13:36
  mentioning. Yesterday putting into the
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  juicer lap. I woke up today and now they're
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  -150 you can get -1. 50 pretty much everywhere I'm.
• 13:44
  Looking at it now, FanDuel, Caesars, ESPN, Bet fanatics, we
• 13:48
  do have a couple books, DraftKings and bet MGM at -155
• 13:51
  so you can still get -150 again if you haven't played it, I'll
• 13:55
  play that number if you didn't get the better one from
• 13:57
  yesterday. But you like this?
• 13:59
  I like the split set DraftKings on the Iowa.
• 14:00
  State money line. 20% bet, 65% dollars.
• 14:04
  And again, why am I going to money line money line short
• 14:06
  favorites again? I would hate to see Iowa State
• 14:08
  win by 1. Or two, you lay A2.
• 14:10
  And a half because. You want to save the juice, You
• 14:11
  lose your bet, You pay a little more juice.
• 14:14
  It's also a much more enjoyable sweat.
• 14:15
  Just win the damn game. But what we?
• 14:18
  Really. Like is that unranked home
• 14:20
  favors ranked? Opponents Iowa State's unranked
• 14:22
  BYU is ranked. If you money line just straight
• 14:25
  up unranked home faves to beat ranked.
• 14:27
  Opponents since the start of. 2017 they are 57 and 3160. 5%
• 14:33
  with a 4% ROI. Lastly, one thing I like about
• 14:36
  Iowa State, they have a rest. Advantage.
• 14:39
  So a little. Bit rest first tired where
• 14:41
  again, they're coming off a bye week whereas BYU.
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  Played a tough rivalry game against Utah.
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  So that's a rest first, tired and then.
• 14:50
  Also, you look at rhythm. Not a huge edge, but rhythm has
• 14:53
  Iowa State -2.2. And -2.7 so not a big edge on
• 14:58
  laying A2. And 1/2.
• 14:59
  But that would support a money line play.
• 15:01
  So again, talked about it yesterday.
• 15:03
  Like it even more. Today, yes, it's gotten more
• 15:05
  expensive but tells me more money's falling in on the
• 15:07
  Cyclone, so I'm buying low on Iowa State most heavily.
• 15:11
  Back game. Contrarian dog, not dog to fade,
• 15:13
  but. Fade the trendy dog.
• 15:15
  I'm on the Cyclone's money line -135 again -150 is now your best
• 15:19
  price. Next one for you.
• 15:22
  This one looks so gross. And it is so.
• 15:24
  Sharp When I put in my app earlier today, I cut my.
• 15:27
  Finger. I was bleeding everywhere.
• 15:28
  Just kidding, I wasn't, but I'm making a joke about how sharp it
• 15:31
  was. Ole Miss in Oklahoma noon
• 15:33
  kickoff on Saturday. Ole Miss comes in six and one.
• 15:37
  On the year ranked 8th. Overall, they did just suffer
• 15:39
  the first loss. Of the year, though, they felt
• 15:41
  the Georgia 43 to 30. 5 didn't cover the seven and a.
• 15:45
  Half lost by 8. On the other hand, Oklahoma.
• 15:47
  Six and one ranked 13th. Just took down South Carolina 26
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  to. Seven easily covered as a. 4 1/2
• 15:53
  point Rd. Favorite so.
• 15:54
  What are you seeing across the market here?
• 15:56
  Well, this game opened Oklahoma around a 4 1/2 point home.
• 15:59
  Favorite and the public says this line is.
• 16:01
  Way too high. Ole Miss is the better team
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  because Ole Miss is ranked 8th. And Oklahoma's ranked 13th.
• 16:08
  So you should definitely take the points with Ole Miss, right?
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  However, even though 77. Percent of spread bets are going
• 16:14
  with Ole Miss. Very, very extremely trendy dog.
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  Even trendier than BYU. The sign hasn't fallen to. 4
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  three or two. It's gone up.
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  Further in favor of. Oklahoma.
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  So Oklahoma. Even though they're only getting
• 16:27
  23. Percent of spread bets.
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  They've gone from -4 1/2 up to -5 1/2.
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  So dead giveaway there that big pro money has laid the points
• 16:35
  with the Sooners. Oklahoma is one of the top
• 16:37
  contrarian. Plays of the week again getting
• 16:39
  less than 1/4. Of tickets and one of the most
• 16:41
  heavily backed games of the day. You look at the splits at
• 16:44
  DraftKings, Oklahoma, 23% of bets, 44% of dollars circa.
• 16:50
  Listen to this. 36% of spread bets. 80. 3% of spread dollars.
• 16:55
  When 2 ranked teams. Playoff face off and play
• 16:58
  against each other. Take the home favorite they.
• 17:00
  Are 10 and seven against the spread this year?
• 17:02
  59% they are 134 and 89 ATS. 60% will be 15% ROI since 2016.
• 17:10
  If you're looking for. Maybe a little advantage here
• 17:12
  and I don't get big into the. XS and OS because.
• 17:15
  To me, it's all baked into the cake, but.
• 17:17
  Oklahoma. 'S got a way better defense
• 17:19
  they're only giving. Up 10 1/2 points a game.
• 17:22
  That's second best in college football?
• 17:23
  Only Ohio State. Gives up fewer Ole misses giving
• 17:26
  up 22. .6 points per points. Per game pretty much double.
• 17:29
  That's 43rd in the country. Lastly.
• 17:33
  We want to definitely jump on books.
• 17:35
  That are giving us better. Prices because when I.
• 17:37
  Went to go bet this game, I said man.
• 17:39
  Everyone's playing Ole mess. Lines going Oklahoma, I got to
• 17:42
  be on the Oklahoma side and then when I popped open my odd logic
• 17:46
  live odds page I noticed that. Pretty much every book was
• 17:50
  Oklahoma. -5 1/2. There were a couple.
• 17:53
  Books at -5 But there was one book.
• 17:56
  I kind of alluded to. This when we started the pod.
• 17:58
  There's one book. Still hanging. -4 1/2 with
• 18:01
  Oklahoma -4 1/2. -115 ESPN bet. So I jumped on that number as
• 18:08
  soon as I could -4 1/2 -, 115. Again, every other book.
• 18:12
  Is 5 or 5 1/2 so. ESPN bet is the outlier.
• 18:16
  Maybe that just tells you that they're getting such.
• 18:18
  Heavy, you know, support with. Ole Miss, they don't want to
• 18:20
  give out a better number, so you're actually getting a better
• 18:22
  number on Oklahoma there. So I laid -4 1/2 -, 115 Oklahoma
• 18:26
  and then listen to this popped open the rhythm app Rhythm has.
• 18:30
  Oklahoma minus. 8.4 and -8.7. So that is a big big edge in
• 18:38
  addition or over the. -4 1/2 that you can get an ESPN bet so
• 18:42
  I put in Oklahoma Sooners -4 1/2 last bet.
• 18:46
  Early bet for me for. College football Week 9, Baylor
• 18:50
  and Cincinnati. This is a 4:00 game coming up on
• 18:53
  Saturday. Baylor.
• 18:54
  Comes in four and three just came up short against TCU.
• 18:57
  However, 42 to 36 did not. Cover as a 3 1/2 point Rd. dog.
• 19:02
  Meanwhile, Cincinnati, six and one on the year, ranked 21st.
• 19:05
  They just crushed OK State 49 to 17 covering as a 23 1/2.
• 19:09
  Point Rd. Favorite.
• 19:11
  So what we've seen across the market here, will this game open
• 19:13
  Cincy as a? Listed as a 5 1/2 point home
• 19:16
  favorite and the public says Bearcats all day ranked better
• 19:20
  record. Baylor unranked coming off a
• 19:23
  loss. However, even though 80%.
• 19:26
  Of spread bets at DraftKings. Are going Cincinnati.
• 19:29
  Cincinnati did not go up. -5 1/2 to -6 - 7 No, it's gone the
• 19:33
  other. Way.
• 19:34
  Despite all this heavy betting on Cincy, the Bearcats have
• 19:36
  fallen -5 1/2 down to -4 1/2. So that tells me we have a
• 19:41
  really sharp. Reverse line move also an.
• 19:44
  Epic contrarian play. Only 20% of bets are on.
• 19:46
  Baylor, however, DraftKings are getting. 58.
• 19:49
  Percent of the dollars on the spread.
• 19:51
  So really good split there. Baylor would be.
• 19:54
  A unranked dog versus ranked opponent.
• 19:57
  A buy low sell high If you look at unranked dogs versus ranked.
• 20:00
  Opponents, they're 54 and 46. Against the spread this year.
• 20:03
  54. Percent and that is right where
• 20:05
  they've been historically since the start of last year they're.
• 20:08
  162 and 137 ATS 54. Percent, 3% ROI.
• 20:13
  Baylor would be that conference dog.
• 20:15
  Built in familiarity, rivalry aspect levels the playing
• 20:18
  playing field benefits. The team getting points.
• 20:21
  You're also buying law and Baylor.
• 20:22
  As a team who? Just lost and didn't cover.
• 20:25
  Against Cincinnati. Who won and did cover and then
• 20:27
  lastly. The Baylor Bears are a dog.
• 20:30
  Who can score system match? So this is a very high total. 67
• 20:34
  1/2 could be a. You know, 45 to 40 game.
• 20:38
  I guess we're going to need a 40. 5 to 42 game but dog who can
• 20:43
  score system match Bears are averaging 35.3 points per game.
• 20:47
  Hopefully that will increase the chances they can keep pace or
• 20:50
  backdoor cover, but. Everyone's on Cincy.
• 20:53
  The line's dropping toward Baylor.
• 20:54
  Pretty much every book is at 4 1/2.
• 20:56
  I couldn't find a 5, but I did put in Baylor plus 4 1/2
• 21:00
  available everywhere. So Iowa State money line,
• 21:03
  Oklahoma. Got to get that ESPN bet -4 1/2
• 21:07
  and Baylor plus 4 1/2 along with our.
• 21:09
  Lakers over 220. 5 1/2 here. For tonight, so that about does
• 21:14
  it for episode 378 of the All Systems Go Sports.
• 21:17
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 21:19
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
• 21:22
  always start first by saying thank you.
• 21:24
  Thank you for taking the time out of your day.
• 21:26
  Out of your busy lives and we got a.
• 21:27
  Lot going on. But you guys keep tuning in, you
• 21:30
  keep showing up, you keep listening, you keep pulling up a
• 21:32
  chair to the. Virtual Bar and sweat some sharp
• 21:34
  data-driven breakdowns with me, so I very much appreciate that.
• 21:37
  Thank you if. You want to let me know you
• 21:39
  appreciate the pod? You enjoy the pod?
• 21:41
  Please could you give? It a five star review on Spotify
• 21:44
  or iTunes, it'll only take a second.
• 21:46
  I think we're up to 334. Five star reviews on Spotify.
• 21:49
  So thank you. Let's keep keep it going here.
• 21:52
  If you also want to click the follow button, recommend the pod
• 21:55
  to. A friend leave a nice.
• 21:55
  Review that would also be fantastic next if you enjoy the
• 22:00
  style of betting breakdown data-driven sharp contrarian
• 22:03
  betting focusing on line movement bet split system
• 22:05
  matches, not focusing and betting based on what our gut
• 22:09
  instinct is telling us because typically your gut instinct is
• 22:11
  wrong because it's biased versus numbers, which numbers don't lie
• 22:15
  line movement and and dollars and bets don't lie.
• 22:18
  But if this style. Of betting has appealed to you.
• 22:20
  You want to learn more? About data-driven betting.
• 22:23
  Maybe you have? Someone in your life who could
• 22:24
  use some data-driven tips. If they're brand new to betting
• 22:26
  or maybe they bet a little bit or a lot and loot have lost a
• 22:29
  lot and just don't really have a an overarching philosophy or
• 22:33
  don't even. Know what the opener is.
• 22:34
  And how the line is moved where the splits are at.
• 22:37
  I would love if any of that is the.
• 22:39
  Case for you to go. To Amazon.com and type in.
• 22:43
  The NFL sharp betting playbook and then type in the.
• 22:46
  Everything guide to sports betting.
• 22:47
  Those are my two books. Very proud of them both.
• 22:49
  But if you'd like to. Buy one or both of them and then
• 22:52
  bring them to the sports. Book I will be.
• 22:54
  Very happy to sign them for you by a beer or ginger ale.
• 22:57
  Will root for some points here in the Warriors Lakers game
• 23:01
  next. Have you downloaded?
• 23:02
  Rhythm and juice. Real yet my two favorite.
• 23:04
  Sports betting apps because they're really based on the way
• 23:07
  we. Look at the sports betting world
• 23:09
  from a data. Driven Perspective, so Rhythm
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  fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions for game
• 23:14
  bets and player props. By the way, NBA just went live
• 23:17
  in the Rhythm app today, which is great.
• 23:19
  And then also juice reel. Juice Reel.
• 23:21
  I'm going to pass the hat if you enjoy this pod.
• 23:23
  Go sign up to get the all. Systems go best bet picks on
• 23:26
  juice reel. As soon as I make a bet I have
• 23:28
  all my books synced to juice reel.
• 23:30
  I bet it. It goes right to Juice Reel gets
• 23:32
  posted on the. ASG podcast page, You're more
• 23:35
  than welcome to tail. Fade, do what you like.
• 23:36
  But if you enjoy the pod, you want to tip your podcast host, I
• 23:40
  love it. If you sign up for those Best
• 23:41
  Bet picks, they cost $4.00 and. $0.99 a week.
• 23:45
  So 5 bucks a week? That is less than a dollar a
• 23:48
  day. So.
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  Support the team. You're also going to get the
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  Robo Jackson best bet picks. The sharp Bush indicators.
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  The arbitrage plays the shop for the best line futures, all
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  available when you download. Juice Reel.
• 23:59
  So download Rhythm, download Juice Reel, give me a five star
• 24:01
  review in the App Store while you're at it.
• 24:04
  Next. Do you have a live?
• 24:06
  Odds page. Well, if you don't.
• 24:07
  You need one. Especially with the.
• 24:09
  NBA, If you want to start betting these sides and totals,
• 24:11
  you got to know what did the line open at you know the.
• 24:13
  Other thing with NBA is injuries.
• 24:15
  Guy, you know LeBron. We knew LeBron was out.
• 24:17
  But anytime a guy is out, Giannis is out, boom, the lines
• 24:20
  going to move you. Got to be able to see that line.
• 24:22
  Movement identify that steam compare the open of the current
• 24:25
  shop for the best price. Get that live in game wagering
• 24:29
  odds as well as live scoring and you can do it all with an odds
• 24:32
  logic live odds page. So if you want to give it a
• 24:35
  shot, you. Just use this special link.
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  Oddslogic.com/josh 123 and as long as you do that, you're.
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  Going to get a 7 day free trial and 50% off.
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  Your first month of service. Lastly, have you signed up for
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  Novig yet? Novig is a betting exchange.
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  I've partnered with them because I like, I like what they do.
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  Instead of being a sports book and killing people with the
• 24:59
  juice, they are a betting exchange which.
• 25:01
  Means they're not a sports book and they don't Jack up.
• 25:03
  The juice, you're actually going to get way better juice prices.
• 25:06
  Because you're betting against other bettors, other betting
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  peers. That's why it's an exchange,
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  because one better is exchanging.
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  Versus you, you basically bet. Or find.
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  Don't worry, you don't have to search it out.
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  It does automatically, but it finds someone has bet the other
• 25:19
  side and then you're basically. Betting against each other and.
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  Because of that. The juice is always like. -1 O 5
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  - 1 O 7 + 1 O 5 plus one O 8. You're going to get better
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  prices with Novig, so download Novig and then make sure.
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  Up to 25 bucks, so that about does.
• 25:40
  It for episode 3. 78 of the ASG pod.
• 25:43
  On the. Opening night of the NBA on a
• 25:44
  big Tuesday. Reminder guys, two final
• 25:47
  thoughts as always. Whether I see you at the Borgata
• 25:50
  in Atlantic City Twin. River in Rhode Island the.
• 25:51
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 25:54
  Connecticut The Encore in Boston Plain Ridge park casino.
• 25:57
  MGM Springfield or the Nash where I'm at on the border of
• 26:00
  Massachusetts and New Hampshire, or out in the desert where the
• 26:03
  true grinders get down or Billy Walters sends his number
• 26:05
  runners. Where the lowest juice possible.
• 26:07
  Is found at the South point or sweat and sharp contrarian.
• 26:10
  Plays jumping in the stadium. Swim pool.
• 26:12
  When you cash a big ticket at Circo, whatever it may be,
• 26:15
  you're going to walk up to me and we're just both going to
• 26:17
  laugh. Take a shot.
• 26:18
  Because man. CJ Stroud.
• 26:20
  Drove me to drink last night. He was just, I tell you what
• 26:23
  that is not a guy who inspires much confidence.
• 26:25
  I know this is like, you know, maybe a weird thing to say, but
• 26:28
  like. It wasn't that cold in Seattle,
• 26:30
  I think it was like 55. Degrees.
• 26:32
  This guy has terrible body language and then when he goes.
• 26:34
  On the bench. He puts on a winter cap at like
• 26:37
  55°. So I don't know about CJ Stroud.
• 26:39
  Again, he got he got a great rookie year, but I hadn't like
• 26:43
  watched and sweat a full CJ Stroud game.
• 26:46
  And again, he had a lot of guys out, but he did not inspire much
• 26:49
  confidence. So we're going to RIP up that
• 26:51
  Texans ticket from last night and hopefully bounce back here
• 26:54
  for today. But as always, guys coming off
• 26:57
  an O and one or one and OA. Winning night.
• 26:59
  A losing night. A great night, a terrible night.
• 27:01
  Weather. We're hot.
• 27:02
  And everything seems to be. Going our way.
• 27:04
  Or we're cold. And we're fighting and battling.
• 27:06
  And nothing seems to go our way. We're never going to get too
• 27:09
  high or too low because when we're.
• 27:11
  Hot. We're never as good as we think
• 27:12
  when we're cold. We're never as bad as we think,
• 27:13
  we're always somewhere in the middle and remember the goal.
• 27:16
  Is to beat that 52.38. Percent.
• 27:18
  That's the break even point. Assuming standard -110 juice.
• 27:22
  So we're going to keep grinding. Stay disciplined, fearless with
• 27:25
  discipline, and get down on the system plays that catch our eye
• 27:28
  and check off the boxes, lay off the ones that don't.
• 27:30
  So we're going to look for games, as always, that are
• 27:33
  against the public, with the House, with the.
• 27:34
  Pros flat bet avoid. Parlays and get that CLV we can
• 27:38
  do that we're. Going to be successful.
• 27:40
  Sports bettors. So have a great Tuesday night,
• 27:42
  everybody. Again, let's get some points and
• 27:45
  for Lakers and Warriors, we'll be right back at it tomorrow.
• 27:48
  For a big. Wednesday edition.
• 27:50
  That'll be episode. 379. Of the all systems go sports
• 27:54
  betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 27:56
  Good luck everybody, and have. A great Tuesday night.