Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / CLARITY Day🚨 + Fed Outlook🔥Rebecca Walser INTERVIEW

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CLARITY Day🚨 + Fed Outlook🔥Rebecca Walser INTERVIEW · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: It is clarity to day and today is going to
0:02
Speaker 1: be a big one because we're going to break it down,
0:03
Speaker 1: give you guys, kevin update of where the Centate Banking
0:06
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0:09
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Speaker 1: A cool feature of crypto before we bring in, actually,
1:02
Speaker 1: let's bring in our guests now, and that, of course
1:05
Speaker 1: is Rebecca Wallser coming in from Walls of Wealth Management.
1:07
Speaker 3: How are you, Rebecca, I'm great, How are you great
1:10
Speaker 3: to be here?
1:11
Speaker 4: Thanks for having me?
1:12
Speaker 1: All right, So, Rebecca, We've got a lot of things
1:15
Speaker 1: to take a look at the Centate Banking Committee as
1:17
Speaker 1: literally as we're recording this, going through line by line,
1:21
Speaker 1: a lot of the amendments that have been going on.
1:24
Speaker 1: But while that is happening, the S and P hits
1:27
Speaker 1: A seventy five hundred. I mean, this is insane, Rebecca.
1:31
Speaker 2: Seventy five hundred.
1:33
Speaker 1: Come on, that's ten trillion in seven weeks. Have you
1:37
Speaker 1: seen anything like.
1:38
Speaker 2: This before in your investing history?
1:41
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, it's such a There'd be two answers,
1:45
Speaker 3: and they both be right. The first one is you
1:47
Speaker 3: could certainly harken back to the late nineties speech of
1:51
Speaker 3: Greenspan saying irrational exuberants prior to dot com, and that
1:55
Speaker 3: certainly comes to mind. However, Paul, you know this is
1:58
Speaker 3: I believe this is the largest leap and technology and
2:05
Speaker 3: abilities that we've ever seen in the history of recorded
2:07
Speaker 3: human time. Anything beyond this would be alien almost in nature, like,
2:13
Speaker 3: this is so far beyond what we've ever seen before.
2:18
Speaker 3: So from that perspective, it is it's hard to say
2:23
Speaker 3: that the monetization is too abrupt and too high because
2:27
Speaker 3: we just have no idea the impact of the chain.
2:31
Speaker 3: This is going to impact literally every single piece.
2:35
Speaker 4: Of life we live and how we live it.
2:37
Speaker 3: So from that perspective, I don't think it can be
2:40
Speaker 3: overdone or hyperbolic. I really feel like it's justifiable eventually.
2:45
Speaker 3: But obviously monetization is always rocky. It's always going to
2:49
Speaker 3: be expected to be volatile. And so anyone that thinks
2:51
Speaker 3: it's going to be and I always say straight up
2:53
Speaker 3: into the right, that's obviously a stock market hard I'm
2:55
Speaker 3: talking about straight up into the right. Anyone who thinks
2:57
Speaker 3: it's going to be up up and a way, No,
2:59
Speaker 3: it's going to be volatile. It's going to be painful.
3:01
Speaker 4: We have issues that we will know if even if
3:04
Speaker 4: we get out.
3:05
Speaker 3: Of twenty twenty six, we might not get out of
3:07
Speaker 3: twenty twenty six the way we think we are. And
3:09
Speaker 3: from that perspective, you know, volatility is will be a
3:12
Speaker 3: sa Yes.
3:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, volatility.
3:15
Speaker 1: I think people are somewhat aware of that at least
3:19
Speaker 1: that follow our show, and that because what we've seen
3:22
Speaker 1: in the risk asset market is south has played into
3:25
Speaker 1: this Clarity Act. Senate review is now underway. This is
3:29
Speaker 1: coming from the Senate Banking Committee. They've been going at it.
3:32
Speaker 1: Our research team has been diving into a lot of
3:35
Speaker 1: these What's interesting in what appears to be happening and
3:38
Speaker 1: we're starting to see a little bit of market move
3:40
Speaker 1: on this is that most of these amendments that were
3:43
Speaker 1: submitted by you know, half a dozen senators seem to
3:48
Speaker 1: be sliding off.
3:50
Speaker 2: So it looks like they're going to pass this out.
3:53
Speaker 1: Of the Banking Committee, which would mean it's going to
3:55
Speaker 1: go to the floor. I know, Guyego Stephens said, hey, listen,
3:58
Speaker 1: now i may be okay with this going through the committee,
4:01
Speaker 1: but I'm still going to reserve my vote for the floor.
4:04
Speaker 1: That's the real question that's going into this. And of course,
4:07
Speaker 1: the odds right now, where are we setting at seventy
4:11
Speaker 1: one percent, which has done a nice job of going
4:15
Speaker 1: up for sure, But when you look at the possibility
4:19
Speaker 1: of where Clarity is right now, it still has to
4:22
Speaker 1: go through a vote within the Senate, then it goes
4:25
Speaker 1: back to the House, there will be some movement there.
4:28
Speaker 1: What kind of impact do you think this is going
4:31
Speaker 1: to have in terms of investors' sideline capital? And just
4:35
Speaker 1: think about whether people are in money markets which we
4:39
Speaker 1: may get higher for longer.
4:41
Speaker 2: With the Fed.
4:41
Speaker 1: We'll talk about that, people might just be holding capital
4:44
Speaker 1: on the side, waiting for this market to respond.
4:48
Speaker 2: What is your thinking on that?
4:51
Speaker 3: So, unfortunately, I have, as a lawyer and someone who
4:55
Speaker 3: knows like how the sauce is made at the congressional level,
4:58
Speaker 3: I have a lot more of actually getting an act
5:02
Speaker 3: past this year, and I'll tell you the semantics of why, Paul. So,
5:09
Speaker 3: first of all, you have to get out of the
5:10
Speaker 3: Banking Committee, which we know is what they're having a
5:14
Speaker 3: live vote right now.
5:15
Speaker 4: On or our live session on right now.
5:17
Speaker 3: And even if we can get it out of the
5:19
Speaker 3: Banking Committee, it's not going to I don't see how
5:22
Speaker 3: it's going to get a cloture vote to which is
5:24
Speaker 3: a sixty vote requirement, and we only have fifty three
5:27
Speaker 3: Republicans and that so in order to vote on it
5:30
Speaker 3: at the entire Senate level, we have to get a
5:31
Speaker 3: cloture vote, and I don't see that that will happen
5:34
Speaker 3: before the Memorial Day recess on May twenty six. If
5:38
Speaker 3: that doesn't happen before Memorial Day recess, then we're coming back,
5:41
Speaker 3: and we're looking at potentially a June or a July.
5:44
Speaker 3: And then you also have to reconcile the House version
5:47
Speaker 3: with the Senate version, and the Senate version is where
5:49
Speaker 3: the banking lobby really went to work on this yield issue,
5:52
Speaker 3: which is clearly the largest issue we have, cloverchar We
5:56
Speaker 3: have Senators Warren talking about I mean Senator Warren and
5:59
Speaker 3: her first opening statement on the actual Banking Banking Committee said, listen,
6:05
Speaker 3: you know this is written by the crypto industry for cryptos,
6:10
Speaker 3: and so, uh, the negativity on the on the Democratic
6:14
Speaker 3: senator side is it's a really strange alignment to have
6:18
Speaker 3: Democratic senators aligning aligning with the banking lobby. You've got
6:21
Speaker 3: Clobcher who basically is trying to say that Trump's family
6:25
Speaker 3: has benefited immensely already by cryptocurrency and that there she
6:30
Speaker 3: won't look at anything, and no Democratic senator should look
6:33
Speaker 3: at anything that doesn't actually you know, restrict you know,
6:38
Speaker 3: federal government employees or agent, you know, agency people from
6:42
Speaker 3: making money in crypto. So that so let's just assume
6:46
Speaker 3: what you're saying, all of those things fall.
6:48
Speaker 4: Away it gets out of committee.
6:50
Speaker 3: We still have a June or July potential likelihood of
6:54
Speaker 3: this actually before it even gets passed by the Senate,
6:57
Speaker 3: and then it has to get reconciled, and the House
6:58
Speaker 3: doesn't have anything about the yield issues. So we've got
7:01
Speaker 3: to the banking lobby, unfortunately, just has so many bites
7:04
Speaker 3: at this apple. And you know, the issue that we
7:07
Speaker 3: are coming down to, Paul, is yield. Right, so they
7:11
Speaker 3: have settled on this. If it's a passive account with
7:14
Speaker 3: no activity in active activity.
7:17
Speaker 4: Then no yield.
7:19
Speaker 3: But if it has any kind of meaningful transactions, which
7:22
Speaker 3: basically means okay, you've either done a trade or you've
7:24
Speaker 3: made a purchase, then it can have yield. And you
7:27
Speaker 3: can see why this banking lobby is so concerned, Paul,
7:32
Speaker 3: because they see the riding on the wall. This is
7:34
Speaker 3: the end of banking as we know it, and it
7:38
Speaker 3: is going to happen. And so that's my concern is
7:41
Speaker 3: that are we so short sighted that we want to
7:43
Speaker 3: put a legacy banking framework around new technology so much
7:47
Speaker 3: so that we strict it so much so.
7:49
Speaker 4: That it leaves the United States and.
7:50
Speaker 3: It really gets worthed and born and somewhere else, you know,
7:55
Speaker 3: and where else I couldn't tell you.
7:57
Speaker 4: But I I just want to.
7:58
Speaker 3: Say, we cannot allow the old legacy banking lobby to
8:03
Speaker 3: frame this because it is going to happen with or
8:07
Speaker 3: without the United States. The United States can try to
8:08
Speaker 3: stand in its way, but it will happen globally. This
8:11
Speaker 3: is a global thing. We cannot control it, we cannot
8:15
Speaker 3: contain it. And unfortunately, I don't think the banking lobby
8:17
Speaker 3: is getting the memo. They're trying to frame things, so
8:20
Speaker 3: they give them, They buy time, Paul, they buy time
8:23
Speaker 3: to still be you know, the major payment processing entity
8:26
Speaker 3: of the of our citizens. And yet that is just
8:30
Speaker 3: the future is not with the banks, unfortunately.
8:33
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, and I think the real thing that you
8:36
Speaker 2: have to watch.
8:37
Speaker 1: I've got a clip here that talks about the crypto voters,
8:41
Speaker 1: and this is a survey that aligns very importantly because
8:46
Speaker 1: we have midterms coming up, so this is going to
8:49
Speaker 1: get a little dicey for a lot of these senators
8:51
Speaker 1: who are going to be voting on this, especially with
8:54
Speaker 1: the power that's coming out of the crypto voters. Let
8:57
Speaker 1: me go to that clip real quick and we'll take
8:59
Speaker 1: a look.
9:00
Speaker 5: We surveyed fifty five thousand people to get to the
9:02
Speaker 5: ten thousand that held crypto. That's how we learned that
9:05
Speaker 5: about one in five US adults was holding crypto. We
9:07
Speaker 5: just ran our second survey and what we found was
9:11
Speaker 5: one in four US adults now holds cryptos. About a
9:14
Speaker 5: third of crypto holders or women more or over fifty
9:17
Speaker 5: five than under twenty five, more work in construction than
9:20
Speaker 5: in finance. Crypto holders live all over the country. They
9:23
Speaker 5: span political party lines. Twenty percent of crypto holders were
9:27
Speaker 5: actually using it day to day. This year, we've actually
9:30
Speaker 5: seen that double. We're now forty percent of crypto holders
9:33
Speaker 5: telling us that they are sending crypto to friends and family,
9:36
Speaker 5: They're spending crypto at small businesses and large enterprises online
9:40
Speaker 5: and in stores, and about thirty percent of crypto holders
9:43
Speaker 5: accept crypto payments for their businesses. But at the same time,
9:46
Speaker 5: our data shows that about two thirds of Americans actually
9:49
Speaker 5: don't think that policymakers understand crypto well enough to fully
9:53
Speaker 5: regulate it.
9:54
Speaker 2: All right, So there you go.
9:56
Speaker 1: Unfortunately, not the truth. Yeah, that is that is the case,
10:00
Speaker 1: we have the blind leading the blind right now when
10:02
Speaker 1: it comes to American policy makers, sixty seven million Americans
10:07
Speaker 1: whul crypto today. This is also supporting the data right there.
10:12
Speaker 1: I think this is going to boil down to one thing,
10:14
Speaker 1: and that is the pressure of a lot of these
10:16
Speaker 1: senators that are going to be going into the midterms
10:19
Speaker 1: and now realizing if they even realize that there are
10:23
Speaker 1: this many Americans that this matters too. And what's most
10:27
Speaker 1: important here is this is working Americans. So this yield
10:31
Speaker 1: situation is a real issue when you start pulling that
10:35
Speaker 1: away from working Americans who can earn something on their dollar.
10:39
Speaker 1: This to me looks like we could end up with
10:42
Speaker 1: a bit of a train wreck. Do you think there's
10:44
Speaker 1: a possibility that we sway those other seven to eight
10:47
Speaker 1: senators on the Democratic side to come over during this vote?
10:53
Speaker 2: What would you get it right now?
10:55
Speaker 3: Oh gosh, I mean, I'm closer to a thirty percent
10:58
Speaker 3: probability of getting passed in twenty twenty six only because
11:02
Speaker 3: of the time frame here and because it's the midterms.
11:05
Speaker 3: And unfortunately, if you look at Sanata Warren's career, she
11:08
Speaker 3: has a history of Consumer Protection Bureau all of these
11:10
Speaker 3: things of like trying to be on the government that's
11:14
Speaker 3: going to protect you from the risks.
11:15
Speaker 4: And the risk is that we try.
11:18
Speaker 3: To contain something that is global and we get left behind.
11:22
Speaker 4: That's the risk.
11:22
Speaker 3: And I didn't answer your question earlier, which was do
11:25
Speaker 3: I worry about retail to kind of see on the
11:27
Speaker 3: sidelines until this is clarified. I worry about institutional money.
11:30
Speaker 3: We're seeing black Rock, we're seeing Goldman, We're seeing all
11:33
Speaker 3: of these monetizations of money market funds through tokenization, and
11:38
Speaker 3: that is specifically design pol to help the stable coin
11:42
Speaker 3: issuers that have to hold treasuries one to one from
11:46
Speaker 3: the Genius Act. That's designed for them to be able
11:49
Speaker 3: to go out and issue stable coins and.
11:51
Speaker 4: Yet not have to manage.
11:52
Speaker 3: Their money market treasury backup reserves. And that's why all
11:55
Speaker 3: of these things are being institutionalized and tokenized, and it's
11:58
Speaker 3: for the stable There's a lot of institutional pieces that
12:01
Speaker 3: are be the framework.
12:03
Speaker 4: The plumbing is being put into place right now.
12:06
Speaker 3: Without clear clarity around how it's going to be regulated,
12:11
Speaker 3: and that is the risk. And so I just feel like,
12:13
Speaker 3: I know poly market, I know everyone thinks, oh yeah,
12:15
Speaker 3: it's going to go through and it's going to and
12:17
Speaker 3: that's great, but you know, probably what will likely happen
12:20
Speaker 3: is we will get an iteration that will pass. I
12:22
Speaker 3: don't know if it will pass in twenty twenty six,
12:24
Speaker 3: And that's the scary thing because if it doesn't pass
12:25
Speaker 3: now and we get a divided Senate or a divided
12:28
Speaker 3: House and Congress, or we get blue you know, blue.
12:32
Speaker 4: Congress, and that's not going to get us what we want, and.
12:35
Speaker 3: We probably won't have a chance then to get that
12:38
Speaker 3: until twenty thirty.
12:39
Speaker 4: We can't afford this delay, Paul.
12:41
Speaker 3: We cannot afford for the United States to be four
12:45
Speaker 3: years on the wrong side of the regulation of this thing,
12:47
Speaker 3: or it is going to bypass us and it is
12:50
Speaker 3: going to you know, basically coagulate somewhere else as the
12:54
Speaker 3: hub of the global crypto birthing, and we aren't going
12:57
Speaker 3: to be it.
12:58
Speaker 4: And that's the problem.
12:59
Speaker 3: I just can't understand how these people cannot get beyond
13:02
Speaker 3: the United States and realize this is happening at a
13:05
Speaker 3: global level and we cannot get in the way of innovation.
13:08
Speaker 4: It is happening.
13:09
Speaker 3: It is not stoppable, and this banking situation is it
13:13
Speaker 3: could be really tragic for us if we don't get
13:15
Speaker 3: this worked out.
13:16
Speaker 1: Well, Listen, I think you're a little bit you're not
13:20
Speaker 1: very passionate about this, Okay, so we're.
13:23
Speaker 2: Going to have to step up the energy there.
13:26
Speaker 1: Abeca, I think you're definitely on the on the right
13:30
Speaker 1: train of thought here. And to your point, the amount
13:33
Speaker 1: of institutional capital that is moving into the market, but
13:36
Speaker 1: more importantly is the amount of institutions that are strategically
13:40
Speaker 1: building on this. Now you've now got the CME group.
13:43
Speaker 1: They're launching a nastac CME Crypto index futures. This is
13:46
Speaker 1: on June eighth, this is launching. So to your point exactly,
13:51
Speaker 1: is that this is now going into a much more
13:54
Speaker 1: broader market. We're seeing this that come across in pretty
13:58
Speaker 1: much everybody. We saw this with Jpmore announcing their news
14:01
Speaker 1: moving into tokenized money markets. We're going to see more
14:04
Speaker 1: companies on their schwab now coming into active trading with
14:07
Speaker 1: digital assets. I mean, you couldn't be further along, and
14:12
Speaker 1: this stuff is.
14:12
Speaker 2: Going to move like light speed.
14:14
Speaker 1: I'm just kind of curious to what point we're going
14:17
Speaker 1: to get it. Listen, we have breaking news, breaking news.
14:21
Speaker 1: They have moved the Yeah, they've moved it out of
14:25
Speaker 1: the Senate banking so it is moving forward to the
14:27
Speaker 1: Senate floor as appears to be, as is coming off
14:32
Speaker 1: of what we saw in the markup text.
14:33
Speaker 2: We'll cover more on this later.
14:35
Speaker 1: So to your point we were kind of anticipating this
14:38
Speaker 1: today is.
14:39
Speaker 2: That this is huge.
14:40
Speaker 1: Next step is really how do we sway those senators.
14:44
Speaker 1: I think if they talk to you for a few minutes,
14:46
Speaker 1: they probably didn't come over and.
14:48
Speaker 4: Say, yeah, your podcast Rebecca is doing.
14:52
Speaker 1: So let's talk a little bit about IPOs because there
14:56
Speaker 1: are some things that are happening. One thing that's caught
14:59
Speaker 1: me a little bit by surprise is the fact that
15:02
Speaker 1: we have, alongside giants like open Ai, SpaceX Stripe, these
15:08
Speaker 1: are some of the biggest unicorns out there, we have
15:10
Speaker 1: one of the crypto natives in there, and that is
15:13
Speaker 1: Ripple Labs, the home of XRP. But the point I'm
15:17
Speaker 1: getting at is you have now a top ten company
15:23
Speaker 1: ranked by valuation that is a crypto native company in Ripple.
15:28
Speaker 2: You now have all of.
15:30
Speaker 1: These new FinTechs that are moving quickly to raise next
15:35
Speaker 1: generation capital and possibly next series and then eventually go ipo.
15:40
Speaker 1: Do you think we'll see a mad rush to IPOs again,
15:45
Speaker 1: if Clarity goes.
15:46
Speaker 3: Through, I do I do think that I don't imagine that.
15:51
Speaker 3: I can't imagine right now, with the exception of I
15:54
Speaker 3: really can't imagine right now if Clarity is delayed, which
15:57
Speaker 3: is the biggest risk, right The biggest risk is that
15:59
Speaker 3: it doesn't twenty twenty six, we get some kind of
16:02
Speaker 3: divided midterm election, and then we don't have a real
16:05
Speaker 3: opportunity to get it past in a format that is
16:07
Speaker 3: going to be market friendly until twenty thirty, so that
16:10
Speaker 3: that would be the worst case scenario of the doomsday
16:14
Speaker 3: scenario I.
16:14
Speaker 4: Think for the United States.
16:16
Speaker 3: But as far as IPOs, you know, I think that
16:20
Speaker 3: obviously anthropics SpaceX, open.
16:22
Speaker 4: AI, all real.
16:25
Speaker 3: SpaceX obviously being a little bit different, but all really
16:27
Speaker 3: AI specific, very AI heavy, and then crypto heavy obviously ripple.
16:32
Speaker 3: And for me, my general IPO advice is always wait
16:36
Speaker 3: six months, because it's very rare that you get something
16:38
Speaker 3: that takes off that at a price point that six
16:41
Speaker 3: months later it is above. It has to be a
16:43
Speaker 3: true unicorn, it has to be a true like outlier.
16:46
Speaker 3: Otherwise we get higher, you know, we just like over
16:48
Speaker 3: exuberance and then rationality takes over and within six months
16:51
Speaker 3: you kind of work out six months to a year
16:53
Speaker 3: when sometimes you work out what the real valuation is
16:55
Speaker 3: and the first purchasers at the exchange level usually not
17:00
Speaker 3: the winners. So I like to wait six to six
17:03
Speaker 3: months to a year on IPOs. But let's see, it's
17:06
Speaker 3: going to be this is going to be obviously the
17:07
Speaker 3: largest IPO. You're just open AI and SpaceX alone. You
17:11
Speaker 3: add in there Ripple Anthropic and you're you're just looking
17:13
Speaker 3: at some of the largest IPOs, you know, and certainly
17:17
Speaker 3: IPO activity that we haven't seen in two decades probably
17:22
Speaker 3: it's been that long, so it's amazing.
17:24
Speaker 2: Well, and these are monsters.
17:25
Speaker 1: These would be absolute you know stars in terms of
17:30
Speaker 1: IPO season. But to your point, I think there's going
17:32
Speaker 1: to be a lot of companies and either small smaller
17:36
Speaker 1: i pos and or companies that are in the universe
17:39
Speaker 1: of many of these organizations that probably will end up
17:43
Speaker 1: doing well along with these launches because it will raise
17:46
Speaker 1: a lot of you know, narrative.
17:48
Speaker 2: I think around particular sectors, especially in the space sector.
17:51
Speaker 1: I'm following a lot of the you know, emerging space
17:54
Speaker 1: stocks right now, which seems to be and if SpaceX
17:58
Speaker 1: actually goes live and we do see the kind of
18:00
Speaker 1: pe that we're anticipating, I mean, these are gonna be huge.
18:04
Speaker 1: Let's move over to kind of next phase here, because
18:07
Speaker 1: now we're talking about the FED who's getting ready to
18:11
Speaker 1: take control.
18:11
Speaker 2: We're talking about Kevin Walsh. He's moving in. He's gonna We're.
18:15
Speaker 1: Gonna see him in the next FOMC meeting. He'll be
18:17
Speaker 1: right there doing chair Palal's former job. I want to
18:21
Speaker 1: play a clip because this is Mohammad A La Raine
18:23
Speaker 1: who's talking about the next phase of how this economy
18:28
Speaker 1: will affect the fed's decision.
18:30
Speaker 2: I want to hear what you have to say. Take
18:32
Speaker 2: a look.
18:36
Speaker 6: So for now, meaning the next few months, they'll act
18:40
Speaker 6: by not acting. The FED is going to look at
18:42
Speaker 6: this and it's going to stop it from cutting weights
18:46
Speaker 6: for most of the year. And if we get a
18:51
Speaker 6: weight action, it is more likely to be a hike
18:54
Speaker 6: than a cut. But I think the scenario is they
18:58
Speaker 6: will do nothing for at least eight months.
19:01
Speaker 4: So you think they can sit on their hands for
19:03
Speaker 4: that long.
19:05
Speaker 6: I think they're going to sit on their hands because
19:08
Speaker 6: the next stage that we're going to see is what
19:11
Speaker 6: I call demand destruction. So if you remember, there were
19:14
Speaker 6: four phases to the shock the economics shot from the
19:18
Speaker 6: Middle East War. Number one is energy prices and interest
19:22
Speaker 6: rates go up. Number two that we're seeing today is
19:26
Speaker 6: it starts to be an inflation problem much greter. Number
19:29
Speaker 6: three is the affordability issue becomes severe enough that people
19:34
Speaker 6: stop spending as demand destruction. And number four hopefully we
19:39
Speaker 6: won't get there and you get financial instability.
19:43
Speaker 2: All right, So there you have it.
19:46
Speaker 1: They are believing, some analysts believing that this is going
19:48
Speaker 1: to go higher for longer. What is your opinion right now?
19:53
Speaker 1: Odds a ray hug right now higher than thirty percent
19:57
Speaker 1: of the odds of a raycuse lesson too.
19:58
Speaker 2: So what do you think? What do we look like?
20:01
Speaker 4: Yeah, oh my goodness.
20:02
Speaker 3: So this is so you know, it's so hard because
20:05
Speaker 3: we have a new FED chair that literally got confirmed
20:08
Speaker 3: on the thirteenth, and he, to me, his record showed
20:13
Speaker 3: that he was a hawk, which I am more on
20:16
Speaker 3: the hawkish side of a central bank policy, voluntary policy.
20:19
Speaker 4: So I was really happy for that.
20:21
Speaker 3: But obviously Trump nominated him expecting him to be dubvish
20:24
Speaker 3: and cut rates and to you know, stimulate the Federal
20:27
Speaker 3: Reserve has been doing quantitative easy. They don't call it
20:30
Speaker 3: quantitative easy, but they basically, you know, with the R
20:34
Speaker 3: and P, basically they were buying forty billion of treasuries
20:38
Speaker 3: a month, and in April they decided to trim that
20:41
Speaker 3: from forty eight to twenty five. But we have if
20:44
Speaker 3: you look at the M two money supply pole, from
20:46
Speaker 3: July of last year to February, we increased that by
20:48
Speaker 3: a trillion dollars. We have a ton of liquidity in
20:51
Speaker 3: the system, and so that would be very accommodative. That
20:55
Speaker 3: would be you know, indicative of helping Trump. This was
20:58
Speaker 3: POW that did this worsh coming in. We've already seen
21:01
Speaker 3: that it was trimmed from forty to twenty five. That's
21:04
Speaker 3: already going to impact liquidity. The problem is you have
21:07
Speaker 3: obviously CPI coming in three point eight percent, you have
21:10
Speaker 3: PPI coming in at a massively higher number, and that's
21:13
Speaker 3: of course, the wholesale price is for April six percent
21:16
Speaker 3: year over year. There's just no chance with the CPI
21:19
Speaker 3: and a PPI off these and these ranges of course
21:22
Speaker 3: greatly impacted by the Middle East and what's going on
21:25
Speaker 3: with a RAN. But when you have a CPI and
21:27
Speaker 3: a PPI in these range, the Federal Reserve is not
21:30
Speaker 3: going to be able to justify cuts period and that
21:33
Speaker 3: really puts the Treasury back on its heels because that
21:37
Speaker 3: just continues to mean that they can only finance what
21:39
Speaker 3: they need to finance on the long end of the
21:42
Speaker 3: yield curve, which is too high, and we can't afford
21:46
Speaker 3: to be on the shorter or excuse me, they can't
21:48
Speaker 3: afford to excel at the long end of yeld curve.
21:49
Speaker 4: It's too high.
21:50
Speaker 3: They have to do short term financing and it's a problem.
21:55
Speaker 4: So this is a disaster from a.
21:59
Speaker 3: Perspective of a brand new person coming in and trying
22:01
Speaker 3: to establish what their framework is and what their policy is,
22:04
Speaker 3: because you're really fighting against a hot pricing situation scheme
22:11
Speaker 3: and this is not what you want to come in
22:13
Speaker 3: at trying to be dubvish. It's just not what you
22:16
Speaker 3: just can't do it. And you've got really a hawkish
22:18
Speaker 3: person in his history with the Fed on the Board
22:21
Speaker 3: of Governors coming in and trying to be dubbish.
22:24
Speaker 4: It's just not going to work. There's no Federal Reserve president.
22:27
Speaker 3: I don't think that could possibly ever justify cuts in this.
22:30
Speaker 4: Kind of environment.
22:31
Speaker 3: So again, not only from the federal reserve perspective, but
22:34
Speaker 3: from the perspective of the midterm election. This war has
22:38
Speaker 3: to end, I think the latest by July, and we
22:41
Speaker 3: have to have some kind of price stability because otherwise
22:45
Speaker 3: it's going to impact people so much that.
22:46
Speaker 4: They won't forget it in November.
22:48
Speaker 3: They will still vote with their pocket even if prices
22:50
Speaker 3: have come down, if they haven't come down long enough.
22:52
Speaker 3: So this is a massive problem when you get to
22:54
Speaker 3: four and a half percent. You know, we just had
22:56
Speaker 3: Paul last week the lowest consumer sentiment serve for the
23:00
Speaker 3: University of Michigan ever.
23:02
Speaker 4: And it's like literally people could have there.
23:05
Speaker 3: It's really a bifurcation between the equity markets and what
23:08
Speaker 3: people are filling in their pocketbook.
23:10
Speaker 4: And when you got four.
23:11
Speaker 3: Dollars and fifty cent average gasoline prices across the country,
23:14
Speaker 3: people are going to vote you out.
23:16
Speaker 4: I don't care who you are.
23:18
Speaker 3: They just vote now with their pocketbooks and they just
23:21
Speaker 3: do not want to stand for higher level prices, especially
23:24
Speaker 3: when you have half of the financial media or all
23:26
Speaker 3: of the financial media, a lot of the media couching
23:29
Speaker 3: this war as it was unnecessary. A rand doesn't have
23:32
Speaker 3: Lucar weapons, and blah blah blah blah blah that you
23:34
Speaker 3: just have this constant banging of this wasn't even necessary.
23:38
Speaker 3: And look what we're paying at the gas price, you know,
23:40
Speaker 3: at the gas pump.
23:41
Speaker 4: It's a problem. So the Federal Reserve is going to have.
23:43
Speaker 3: A massive deal on how do we deal with these
23:46
Speaker 3: higher inflation rates and not be able to cut yet
23:49
Speaker 3: we really can't afford to finance anything beyond two years
23:53
Speaker 3: because the gield curve is just too high on the
23:55
Speaker 3: back end.
23:56
Speaker 2: Do you okay?
23:57
Speaker 1: So just to get Claire, because I want to make
23:59
Speaker 1: sure I understand where your position is. Would you be
24:03
Speaker 1: in the rate hike camp right now for twenty six
24:07
Speaker 1: like what the odds are coming in, or would you
24:09
Speaker 1: be in a higher just basically a pause, continuation of
24:13
Speaker 1: pausing multiple times.
24:15
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna I think that Warship would have
24:18
Speaker 3: a really difficult time, even if he was hawkish. I
24:21
Speaker 3: think you'd have a really really difficult time coming in
24:24
Speaker 3: how he's come in with who nominated him and hike rates.
24:28
Speaker 3: He would have to have such clear data and and
24:31
Speaker 3: you know, one of the things that Trump has said,
24:32
Speaker 3: and one of the things that he wants the BLS
24:34
Speaker 3: to do is collect data in a different way more quickly.
24:36
Speaker 3: It's dated, it's out, you know, it's not the surveys
24:38
Speaker 3: aren't being completed, and so I feel like we're going
24:41
Speaker 3: to get a push to get better data. And as
24:43
Speaker 3: long as that, you know, I think they're going to
24:45
Speaker 3: have to wait a while before they would expect a
24:47
Speaker 3: hike because clearly this administration wants cuts, and so a
24:50
Speaker 3: hike is not anything that was on anyone's radar.
24:52
Speaker 4: But again, this war changes everything.
24:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, well it does change everything, and I think
24:58
Speaker 1: we're going to be dealing with it for some time.
25:01
Speaker 1: The other factor that's going to play into this is
25:03
Speaker 1: how the economy is doing to your point, you know, around.
25:07
Speaker 2: A lot of other areas.
25:08
Speaker 1: You know, it's beyond what we're going to see on
25:10
Speaker 1: productivity with AI, what kind of jobs numbers are going
25:13
Speaker 1: to continue to come through for the summer months.
25:16
Speaker 2: And then you know the other issues.
25:18
Speaker 1: You've got Jerome palse still sitting as a governor there
25:21
Speaker 1: within the FED, which is ironic, who could easily be
25:26
Speaker 1: another swing vote, you know, in terms of how this
25:28
Speaker 1: plays out, even down the road. If you were even
25:31
Speaker 1: to get one, if you gave it a one in
25:34
Speaker 1: ten chance ten being best of a rate cut in
25:41
Speaker 1: twenty six, would you give it? What a rate cut
25:45
Speaker 1: somewhere in twenty six could be way down in the
25:47
Speaker 1: maybe the December of the November meeting.
25:50
Speaker 3: I would say, based on where we are right now,
25:53
Speaker 3: we have less than a thirty percent probability of or
25:55
Speaker 3: rate cut in twenty six.
25:58
Speaker 2: Going to lightning round here.
25:59
Speaker 1: Here we go like Jurassic Park Life. We'll find a
26:02
Speaker 1: way to pay stable coined yields.
26:04
Speaker 2: What do you think?
26:05
Speaker 4: Agree?
26:07
Speaker 1: Agree, some way or another. We're going to get stable
26:10
Speaker 1: coin yields of some sort coming through this bill. It's
26:14
Speaker 1: actually centralized exchanges.
26:15
Speaker 2: Who should be worried.
26:17
Speaker 1: About deposit flight to DeFi versus banks worrying about deposit
26:22
Speaker 1: flight to centralize exchanges.
26:24
Speaker 2: What do you think?
26:26
Speaker 4: No, I don't think so. I think it's the banks.
26:27
Speaker 4: They're going to be the loser on this banks.
26:31
Speaker 1: I'm in the middle here because I do see DeFi
26:34
Speaker 1: becoming a very active area, especially if we get clarity
26:40
Speaker 1: alignment with where DeFi tools can be, because we're starting
26:44
Speaker 1: to see so many institutions use it, and this could
26:46
Speaker 1: be interesting just because of that in itself. So I'm
26:49
Speaker 1: gonna go the on the fence there. Trump has shown
26:52
Speaker 1: a suspiciously surprising amount of restraint not calling out bankers
26:57
Speaker 1: Citadel Anti Crympto Dams. Why you think he's just busy
27:01
Speaker 1: with everything else or something else.
27:04
Speaker 3: Maybe he's you know, maturing in the job and realizing
27:06
Speaker 3: that it's probably not best to insult the people that
27:08
Speaker 3: you might need.
27:09
Speaker 4: To help vote for you or vote you vote your way.
27:11
Speaker 3: So mean in the middle, because I feel like, you know,
27:15
Speaker 3: there have been some comments, but you know now that
27:18
Speaker 3: I know middle is an option on.
27:20
Speaker 2: There you go. You're gonna no more middles for you. Okay,
27:23
Speaker 2: You're gonna go.
27:24
Speaker 1: Down the If Clarity doesn't pass or becomes bank slop, uh,
27:30
Speaker 1: Trump will lose retail crypto voters.
27:33
Speaker 4: Absolutely, yes, yeah, true, okay, very I agree.
27:37
Speaker 1: And when we say Trump, what we're talking about is
27:39
Speaker 1: really Republicans and the MAGA movement banning stable coin yields
27:44
Speaker 1: and rate hikes equals a recipe for economic disaster but
27:50
Speaker 1: massive bank profits here.
27:51
Speaker 4: Agree, Absolutely agree.
27:53
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, the banks can only delay things
27:56
Speaker 3: for us, but they also can't actually really hurt US
27:59
Speaker 3: by making the hub be outside of the United States.
28:02
Speaker 2: Just that is a big one.
28:05
Speaker 1: Trump wouldn't dare invading another country before midterms.
28:09
Speaker 2: Do you think you'd do it.
28:11
Speaker 3: I'm gonna agree on this one because I feel like
28:13
Speaker 3: he's got to say his plate.
28:14
Speaker 4: Full with a ran. I feel like, yes, I think
28:16
Speaker 4: this is true.
28:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's I think he's figured out that
28:19
Speaker 1: now that was not as good a move.
28:21
Speaker 4: That wasn't ament, which we had done it last year.
28:23
Speaker 4: But whatever.
28:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, each new war chaos event ironically spreads panic and
28:29
Speaker 1: bitcoin adoption.
28:30
Speaker 2: Do you think.
28:31
Speaker 3: Interesting because we had a pullback, you know when the
28:33
Speaker 3: war first broke out, but then last month April, we
28:36
Speaker 3: had massive you know, two billion plus ETF inflows, net
28:40
Speaker 3: and flows.
28:41
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna say I'm gonna say true.
28:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in the true camp, just because I think
28:47
Speaker 1: there are people around the world, you know, even if
28:50
Speaker 1: you look at people in Dubai, you know that start.
28:53
Speaker 1: I talked to several who started to liquidate other assets
28:56
Speaker 1: moving into bitcoin so they could move quickly, you know.
28:59
Speaker 1: And that clue to physical gold people getting out.
29:01
Speaker 2: Of flat gold.
29:02
Speaker 1: There was a big rush for the physical gold because
29:04
Speaker 1: they were worried about transport, so that's an issue Trump
29:08
Speaker 1: fights Kevin Warsh. If the first thing Warsh does is
29:11
Speaker 1: a rate hike, do you think he'll get upset and
29:13
Speaker 1: start calling him out like he does Pal Or do
29:15
Speaker 1: you think he'll pass.
29:18
Speaker 3: I think he'll try to be a little more tactful
29:20
Speaker 3: and give him a little bit more of a rope
29:22
Speaker 3: to hang himself in some more leeway than immediately. But
29:25
Speaker 3: I do think if he, if a war, starts going
29:28
Speaker 3: down the hawkish war path, which I know he wants
29:32
Speaker 3: to reduce the balance sheet, which is very hawkish, and
29:34
Speaker 3: it sucks equently out of the system.
29:36
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, I think Trump will go after him
29:40
Speaker 1: because I do believe that Trump has put so much
29:42
Speaker 1: on that of rate cuts, and he knows just like you,
29:45
Speaker 1: you know, and I've talked about is this refit is important
29:49
Speaker 1: and the US is getting killed on it. Kevin Warsh
29:52
Speaker 1: has the spine to stand up to Trump's law fair pressure.
29:55
Speaker 2: Do you think so?
29:57
Speaker 4: I think so.
29:57
Speaker 3: I think true, And I do think that there. I
30:00
Speaker 3: hope they're going to work collaboratively. So far I believe
30:02
Speaker 3: that they will.
30:03
Speaker 1: Everybody I've talked to has said that this guy is
30:06
Speaker 1: actually a good pick for FED. He could end up
30:09
Speaker 1: really being a special one. We'll see. Remember he was
30:12
Speaker 1: in the two thousand and eight debacle that came out
30:15
Speaker 1: of a very interesting time. He was I don't know
30:17
Speaker 1: if I would say he was on the right side,
30:19
Speaker 1: but one trillion dollar Anthropic rug pulling secondary market share
30:24
Speaker 1: highlights that public our private and public markets are broken.
30:28
Speaker 1: Do you know what happened here? I didn't want to
30:30
Speaker 1: pull that.
30:30
Speaker 3: I mean, yes, but if you want to just give me,
30:33
Speaker 3: like your sonoptoisoerocopic secondary markets.
30:36
Speaker 1: You know, the people were investing in at private they
30:39
Speaker 1: were going off into the secondary markets with those with
30:41
Speaker 1: those particular securities, and Anthropic basically said, no, you can't.
30:46
Speaker 2: Do that, that's void.
30:47
Speaker 1: So it's basically their offering that they voided to some
30:50
Speaker 1: of those companies who had purchased them. But it rug
30:52
Speaker 1: pulled the secondary market. So there's no more secondary market
30:55
Speaker 1: for Anthropic out there.
30:57
Speaker 2: So does that.
30:58
Speaker 1: Mean this market is possibly broken for these secondary markets.
31:02
Speaker 3: Like this, Yeah, I mean I feel like that that
31:06
Speaker 3: it is broken. I mean there's a lot of people
31:08
Speaker 3: that through secondary markets, meaning that for the audiences benefit
31:11
Speaker 3: that there that the investor is not on the Capex table,
31:14
Speaker 3: they're not listed on the Capex table as an initial investor,
31:16
Speaker 3: and they're not known publicly as an investor because it's
31:19
Speaker 3: being sold. I have initial shares before pre i PO,
31:23
Speaker 3: and now I'm selling it in the in the back market,
31:25
Speaker 3: and so I do feel like this is a probably
31:30
Speaker 3: overall a good thing, although in general and I and
31:34
Speaker 3: I that's just because of my IPO you know experience. However,
31:37
Speaker 3: I would say, if you can buy in UH before
31:40
Speaker 3: the I p O and then literally usually sell out
31:43
Speaker 3: on the I p O day or the day after
31:45
Speaker 3: when it really takes off, you know, if it really
31:47
Speaker 3: hit hyper bearer, you know, jumps hyper jumps from from
31:50
Speaker 3: the initial offering price, then you can get your money
31:53
Speaker 3: back and make a profit right away. But then you
31:55
Speaker 3: want to wait the six months to a year to
31:56
Speaker 3: buy back in when when the real monetization value comes.
31:59
Speaker 3: But yeah, yeah, this is this is clearly an issue,
32:02
Speaker 3: and I feel like what's happening, Paul. The reason that
32:05
Speaker 3: these things are that are important and is that it's
32:08
Speaker 3: taking so much longer, and there's multiple seed rounds of
32:11
Speaker 3: funding prior to IPO, whereas usually IPO has looked at
32:15
Speaker 3: as this is your funding round that Now we've got
32:18
Speaker 3: these really advanced companies coming onto IPO much later in
32:22
Speaker 3: their life cycle than what we've used what we've been
32:24
Speaker 3: especially with that technology that we've been seeing, and that's
32:27
Speaker 3: the issue.
32:27
Speaker 4: So I do feel like there's.
32:28
Speaker 3: Been a lot more of a delay of giving people
32:31
Speaker 3: access to these companies than what we've been used to
32:33
Speaker 3: in the past.
32:34
Speaker 1: For sure, polyly market is the greatest checks and balances
32:39
Speaker 1: on and out of control private market.
32:43
Speaker 3: I love Polly Market, I love all of these, you know,
32:45
Speaker 3: these publicly traded and when you have to bet money
32:48
Speaker 3: then it's it's scientifically proven that that is a more
32:51
Speaker 3: accurate when you've got to back it with your own money.
32:54
Speaker 3: So these things are absolutely libertarian tools to show the
32:59
Speaker 3: world what the true feeling of people is. Like I
33:01
Speaker 3: wouldn't trust we should go to all of this for polling,
33:05
Speaker 3: and we should no longer trust you know, these public
33:07
Speaker 3: polls that are so off, that haven't been right in.
33:10
Speaker 4: Debt, you know several elections.
33:12
Speaker 1: Market kind of did that in the last election, you know.
33:15
Speaker 1: So I think we'll see and we'll find out if
33:18
Speaker 1: it's true checks and balances are in play. Coming on
33:22
Speaker 1: the midterms because if it starts showcasing, and I think
33:25
Speaker 1: right now, for instance, that you guys can go check
33:26
Speaker 1: poly market.
33:27
Speaker 2: I didn't pull it up.
33:29
Speaker 1: But currently in terms of Senate possibly going Republican, it
33:33
Speaker 1: flipped back. So it's been back and forth, so very
33:36
Speaker 1: interesting to see how it's performing in terms of the
33:40
Speaker 1: political side.
33:41
Speaker 2: Trump pardons everyone involved with World Liberty five. If there's
33:46
Speaker 2: an ethics rule that gets included, what.
33:48
Speaker 3: Do you think, I mean, this is Clobrasher's wish, right,
33:51
Speaker 3: this is what she said.
33:52
Speaker 4: I won't vote for this without an ethics rule.
33:54
Speaker 3: Oh gosh, that would be really difficult for him to do. Clearly,
34:01
Speaker 3: I have to say no on this, but I just
34:03
Speaker 3: don't think that it's going to get in the act.
34:04
Speaker 3: I just it would just be so blatant, right for
34:07
Speaker 3: him to do that, and also kind.
34:09
Speaker 2: Of like that this would be before he leaves office.
34:11
Speaker 4: This would be before he okay, before he leaves office. Yeah,
34:15
Speaker 4: I still have to say no. I just I just
34:17
Speaker 4: think it's so blatant.
34:19
Speaker 2: I think I think he would do it.
34:21
Speaker 1: Oh wow, Okay, yeah, I think he would pardon uh, okay,
34:24
Speaker 1: all of the I mean it's mostly his kids. I
34:26
Speaker 1: mean just like you know, Biden pardoned Hunter or someone
34:30
Speaker 1: pardoned Hunter.
34:32
Speaker 2: Uh, that's the that's the point.
34:35
Speaker 1: Trump abandon abandons the Iranian war before his White House
34:39
Speaker 1: UFC fight.
34:42
Speaker 4: No, no, not not.
34:44
Speaker 3: I don't think not on not not not his birthday too,
34:47
Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure.
34:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen to Rebecca. It's always fun doing these lightning
34:52
Speaker 1: rounds with you. Thank you so much for coming in today.
34:55
Speaker 1: You're always a handful to deal with, and thank you
34:58
Speaker 1: for that.
35:00
Speaker 4: That's good, I hope.
35:01
Speaker 3: I think that's that's very very benign. I'm not exactly
35:05
Speaker 3: sure what it means, but okay, it.
35:06
Speaker 1: Means good because normally I get people who are and
35:10
Speaker 1: I'm not discounting all of our guests, but sometimes they
35:13
Speaker 1: just won't answer, you know, I ask them the questions
35:16
Speaker 1: straight on they want.
35:16
Speaker 2: You always give us answers, which is what I like.
35:18
Speaker 2: That's my point.
35:20
Speaker 4: But thank you for coming, Thanks for having me. I
35:22
Speaker 4: appreciate it.
35:29
Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
35:32
Speaker 1: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
35:35
Speaker 2: The link is in the description