Latest / The Morning Edition / Trump 'doesn't have a plan' for his war on Iran. And the MAGA base is splintering
Transcript
- 0:04S1: Only six days since the United States and Israel began
- 0:07S1: bombing Iran. The destruction is mounting. More than 800 people
- 0:12S1: have been killed, including Iranian schoolchildren and American service members.
- 0:18S1: What will it take to stop this war and what
- 0:21S1: might compel Donald Trump to end it if he can?
- 0:26S1: I'm Samantha Sellinger Morris, and you're listening to Morning Edition
- 0:30S1: from The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Today, international
- 0:34S1: and political editor Peter Hartcher on Trump's tactics and how
- 0:38S1: his MAGA base is responding. It's March the 5th. Welcome, Peter,
- 0:47S1: back to the podcast.
- 0:49S2: Always a pleasure, Samantha.
- 0:50S1: Okay, well, listen, it's been a few days since we
- 0:52S1: last spoke about Iran. So can you briefly just take
- 0:55S1: us through how far the chaos and violence has spread
- 0:58S1: since the war began over the weekend?
- 1:01S2: Well, after decapitating the regime in Iran, the Americans and
- 1:05S2: Israelis have continued to bombard Iranian targets. The Iranians have
- 1:10S2: fired back and tried to hurt US bases and interests
- 1:14S2: wherever possible.
- 1:15S3: These details just breaking and that vision just coming into
- 1:18S3: the newsroom now. But this was a suspected Iranian drone
- 1:21S3: which has hit the US consulate in Dubai. It is
- 1:25S3: on fire, as you can see, from both Kuwait and
- 1:27S3: Saudi Arabia, increasing that pressure. And the IDF has said
- 1:31S3: that it's now operating in southern Lebanon after Hezbollah fired
- 1:35S3: rockets into Israel.
- 1:36S4: Panic, chaos and injuries at the Dubai airport overnight and
- 1:40S4: a Shahed drone striking a luxury hotel in Dubai's Palm Jumeirah.
- 1:47S5: Oh my God.
- 1:50S2: Casualties have been concentrated mostly in Iran. Some 800, so
- 1:55S2: far as we can tell, according to the Red Crescent.
- 1:58S2: Ten Israelis, six dead American service personnel, 52 Lebanese. We
- 2:06S2: shouldn't be surprised about this aspect because the Iranians promised
- 2:09S2: to do this. They promised that they would retaliate against
- 2:11S2: the US and Israel, but they also said that they
- 2:14S2: would hit other Gulf states that were siding with America.
- 2:19S2: And they have they've hit every Gulf state. I don't
- 2:25S2: think it's intelligent strategy for the Iranians to start bombing
- 2:29S2: and droning, if that's a verb, are all the Gulf
- 2:33S2: states because it only alienates them and brings them into
- 2:37S2: a war they were trying to stay out of. Apart
- 2:40S2: from the fact that it's crippled global aviation because so
- 2:43S2: much of it passes through the UAE. Plus, of course,
- 2:48S2: the effect of the Iranians closing the Strait of Hormuz
- 2:53S2: has been to push up the global oil price. So far,
- 2:56S2: the effect has been around about 10%, so it's not
- 3:01S2: catastrophic by any means. So that's an aspect, the whole
- 3:06S2: economic aspect, which is then translated into modest, so far
- 3:10S2: contained stock market damage and investor damage around the world
- 3:15S2: as well. So that's the state of play around about now.
- 3:18S1: And there's still a lot of chaos. You've just written,
- 3:21S1: many people have written because there's so much chaos around
- 3:23S1: what's actually what this war is all about. Right. But
- 3:26S1: you've actually spoken to two people with it has to
- 3:29S1: be said inside knowledge about what wars can accomplish and
- 3:31S1: specifically about how Donald Trump thinks about military strategy. So
- 3:36S1: what did they tell you about what Trump very well
- 3:38S1: might be thinking now, and whether this is indeed about
- 3:42S1: regime change, as he has sometimes said it was. And
- 3:44S1: then sometimes, of course, he says it's about completely other matters,
- 3:48S1: as do members of his cabinet. It changes by the day.
- 3:50S2: Yeah, well, there's chaos about his intentions and ultimate outcome
- 3:55S2: because he sows the the chaos. He is the one
- 3:59S2: who continuously changes the rationale. On Saturday, he told the
- 4:03S2: Washington Post, I only want freedom for the Iranian people.
- 4:07S2: He said that's the only thing he wants.
- 4:09S6: Me to the great, proud people of Iran. I say
- 4:12S6: tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand.
- 4:15S6: Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside.
- 4:20S6: Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take
- 4:23S6: over your government. It will be yours to take.
- 4:27S2: But on other occasions, he said he wanted to pre-empt
- 4:30S2: an Iranian strike on the US or Israel.
- 4:33S6: This was our last, best chance to strike. What we're
- 4:37S6: doing right now and eliminate the intolerable threats posed by
- 4:41S6: this sick and sinister regime regime.
- 4:44S2: He said he wanted to prevent the proliferation of nuclear
- 4:47S2: technology and fuel beyond Iran. He wanted to change the
- 4:53S2: regime in Iran. He wanted to replace the head of
- 4:56S2: the regime in Iran. So this is why there's so
- 5:00S2: much confusion. So I thought, well, how do we make
- 5:07S2: sense of this? So yes, I talked to the geopolitical strategist,
- 5:09S2: John Bolton, who was Donald Trump's national security adviser for
- 5:14S2: a year and a half in Trump's first term. Bolton
- 5:17S2: is a well known Republican Hawk diplomat advisor who for
- 5:23S2: 25 years has been urging American presidents to assault Iran.
- 5:27S2: And now that he's getting his way, he's worried that
- 5:30S2: Trump is about to bungle the whole thing. And so
- 5:34S2: I put to him, what is Trump's plan? You've worked
- 5:37S2: with him. He's talked about all these issues many times
- 5:39S2: with Trump. When he worked for him. He said, I
- 5:41S2: don't think he has a plan. He said there is
- 5:43S2: no plan. And evidence for that partly is the continuously
- 5:47S2: changing rationales that Trump offers. And of course, Trump saying that,
- 5:52S2: you know, on the Saturday he said it could be
- 5:54S2: over in 2 or 3 days. And then the next
- 5:55S2: day he said it's 4 or 5 weeks and any
- 5:58S2: variation in between. He also said on Saturday, the Iranians
- 6:01S2: are ready to talk and I'm ready to talk to them.
- 6:04S2: But the Iranians.
- 6:05S1: The bombs are.
- 6:05S2: Flying. But yeah, while the bombs are flying. And but then,
- 6:08S2: you know, it hadn't even been 24 hours.
- 6:10S1: But negotiations don't tend to go well when. When bombs
- 6:12S1: are flying.
- 6:13S2: Well, Mick Ryan, the other the military strategist, I talked to,
- 6:16S2: retired Australian general and a widely respected military strategist and commentator.
- 6:22S2: He said that to him, the Iranian retaliation looked like
- 6:26S2: what he called a dead hand retaliatory strike. And this
- 6:30S2: was a doctrine that was adopted during the Cold War.
- 6:34S2: In the event of a nuclear strike that wipes out
- 6:36S2: the leadership. There is a pre-programmed retaliatory set of strikes
- 6:41S2: that proceed almost automatically because it's called dead hand, because
- 6:45S2: the leader is dead. And so a preset series of
- 6:48S2: retaliations occurs. And that's he said, that's what this pattern
- 6:52S2: of Iranian retaliation looks like. He said. There's no point
- 6:56S2: talking to the Iranians while that's going on. And he said,
- 6:58S2: there's certainly no point sitting down with them and they're
- 7:01S2: talking to you about their intentions and there's missiles screaming overhead.
- 7:05S2: So these are the this is the array of Trump rationales,
- 7:09S2: Trump timetables all conflicting with each other. Another piece of
- 7:15S2: evidence that John Bolton offered in arguing his point that
- 7:20S2: there is no plan. Trump just has no idea what
- 7:22S2: he's doing. Minute to minute is the chaos in the
- 7:25S2: oil market. Bolton said to me, and I didn't have
- 7:28S2: space to use this in the in my column. But
- 7:30S2: he said to me that, uh, all of the endangerment
- 7:36S2: to oil facilities and to oil transiting through the Strait
- 7:39S2: of Hormuz was entirely predictable, had been anticipated and war
- 7:44S2: gamed by the US military in all sorts of scenarios
- 7:47S2: for decades, and should not have come to a surprise
- 7:50S2: as a surprise to anybody. He said, but there's obviously
- 7:52S2: no plan because we see nothing out of the US.
- 7:55S2: And then in the last 24 hours we heard Trump say, oh, well,
- 7:59S2: there's a problem. Well, the, the, the US Navy will
- 8:01S2: escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. So, you know,
- 8:05S2: this sort of ex post facto reaction to try to
- 8:08S2: patch up problems which really were quite foreseeable. So I'm
- 8:13S2: afraid the bad news is that somebody who knows Trump
- 8:17S2: is thinking the Iran scenarios, and the entire back story
- 8:21S2: says Trump has no idea what he's doing. And Mick
- 8:23S2: Ryan separately came to the same conclusion. He said the
- 8:28S2: initial military phase, which was led by the Israelis and
- 8:32S2: followed by the Americans, he said, was exquisite. As a
- 8:35S2: professional military planner, he said, I would call that exquisite
- 8:38S2: in its precision and timing and effect.
- 8:41S1: Yeah, the military intelligence that obviously they acquired in order
- 8:44S1: to know where all those leaders were going to be. Yes. Yeah.
- 8:46S1: It was incredible in that sense.
- 8:48S2: Yes. So, you know, the Israelis have long had a
- 8:52S2: global comparative advantage, shall we call it, with intelligence? The
- 8:56S2: Americans have long had a global comparative advantage with delivering
- 8:58S2: large quantities of firepower. The two. The two came together
- 9:01S2: with great effect in the first 24 hours. Mick Ryan
- 9:04S2: gave them credit. She said it was exquisite. He said
- 9:07S2: but the question is what comes next? And that's the
- 9:09S2: hard part. He said there's no evidence of a plan.
- 9:12S2: He said the important part now, and this is a
- 9:15S2: military man, a career army officer here speaking. He said
- 9:19S2: the critical part is the politics, the economics and the society.
- 9:23S2: There is nothing happening there. Trump the administration isn't briefing
- 9:28S2: the Congress. Nobody's talking about it.
- 9:30S1: Well, I wanted to ask you there about geopolitics, Peter,
- 9:32S1: because and especially with what you just said about the
- 9:35S1: Straits of Hormuz and how it could have been foreseen
- 9:37S1: that the Iranians were going to shut this off as
- 9:40S1: a way of retaliating, because some analysts are actually saying
- 9:43S1: that Trump's desire in starting this war, obviously, along with
- 9:47S1: the Israelis, was to starve China of the cheap oil
- 9:52S1: that it gets from Iran, that this was a geopolitical
- 9:54S1: strategy to shore up America's global supremacy, because so much
- 9:58S1: of China's economy relies on the crude that it gets
- 10:01S1: from Iran. Something like 14% of its seaborne crude comes
- 10:05S1: from Iran. Do you think there's any credibility to that,
- 10:07S1: or is that just giving Trump way too much credit
- 10:09S1: that he would have had this geopolitical strategy?
- 10:11S2: Yes. I think this is a part of a syndrome
- 10:15S2: of experts who really know their subjects to look at
- 10:19S2: the Trump chaos. It's like a Rorschach test, right? And
- 10:24S2: superimposed on that, that inkblot, their own expertise and understanding
- 10:29S2: of the world. I think this is a classic example
- 10:33S2: in this great muddle and befuddlement, in the Trump mind,
- 10:37S2: in the Trump planning, or the absence of planning. Um,
- 10:41S2: people seek order and understanding, and so they impose their
- 10:45S2: own structured thinking and academic learning and expertise and see
- 10:50S2: in it maybe what they would do or trying to
- 10:53S2: make sense of it. I don't think there's any prospect
- 10:56S2: that Trump has actually considered that in any sort of, um,
- 11:00S2: thought through way. Everything he does, whether it's tariffs, missiles,
- 11:06S2: you name it, is ad hoc and all that's done.
- 11:10S2: If you think about China and oil, Trump is trying
- 11:14S2: to discourage countries from using Russian oil because the US
- 11:19S2: and others have sanctions on Russian oil to punish them
- 11:22S2: for their invasion of Ukraine. But by creating a shortage
- 11:27S2: and a price hike of oil coming out of the
- 11:29S2: Persian Gulf, that is just pushing China and India into
- 11:34S2: buying more Russian oil. Now, this is a great gift
- 11:37S2: to the Kremlin. This is a great gift to the
- 11:39S2: Russian war machine. Dmitry Peskov, who's the chief spokesperson for
- 11:44S2: Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin, was gloating on social media. Uh,
- 11:49S2: $100 a barrel of oil. Here we come.
- 11:55S1: After the break.
- 11:57S2: Candace Owens, a mega influencer of some notoriety. She has
- 12:04S2: described this not as the so-called Operation Epic Fury. She
- 12:10S2: calls it Operation Epstein Fury.
- 12:25S1: What kind of chaos do you think this could unleash?
- 12:29S1: I was thinking about something that I heard Thomas Friedman
- 12:32S1: say the other day. He is the Pulitzer Prize winning
- 12:34S1: political writer. And he said just the other day on
- 12:37S1: what's happening in Iran. The opposite of autocracy isn't democracy.
- 12:41S1: It's chaos. So we've seen what happens when the US invades, say,
- 12:46S1: Iraq or Afghanistan or Libya, and often far worse regimes
- 12:51S1: either come about or it's just absolute chaos. So what
- 12:56S1: do you think, Peter?
- 12:57S2: Well, it was the US led invasion of Afghanistan and
- 13:03S2: then Iraq. The futility, the failures and the enormous cost
- 13:07S2: that turned the US as a as a whole, as
- 13:09S2: a polity against the use of warfare where it's avoidable.
- 13:14S2: That's why Barack Obama used to say, I'm the president
- 13:18S2: who ends wars as a contrast with Bush and his predecessors.
- 13:23S2: That's why Donald Trump in his inaugural said, I'm not
- 13:26S2: going to start any wars. I'm going to end wars.
- 13:28S2: He's called himself the president for peace. That is because
- 13:32S2: the costs have been so horrendous. Afghanistan, the US was
- 13:36S2: there for 20 years and the Taliban is back in control.
- 13:40S2: So what was the point of the bloodshed? What was
- 13:43S2: the point of the cost at the chaos? The wounded
- 13:46S2: veterans who were still suffering from amputations, PTSD and all
- 13:51S2: the rest of it. Then there was Iraq, where, you know, again,
- 13:57S2: tremendous initial bombardment, followed by a series of half assed,
- 14:02S2: half conceived, badly executed plans resulted in eight years of losses.
- 14:09S2: US leaves, as a consequence, an unintended consequence of the
- 14:13S2: US led combat. We see ISIS take over a large
- 14:17S2: chunk of the country, form a caliphate, and start exporting
- 14:20S2: terrorism with that sort of a history of strategy and
- 14:24S2: failure to plan. It's no surprise that there is great
- 14:27S2: skepticism about what the US strategy is next, but it
- 14:30S2: is a surprise that the at the failure of any
- 14:34S2: evidence of real strategy. Mind you, if Trump does succeed
- 14:40S2: with the Israelis in removing this regime, if they can
- 14:44S2: somehow engineer a more benign and reasonable, responsible government. Donald
- 14:50S2: Trump will be hailed as a great hero. Part of
- 14:53S2: the difficulty with these sort of events, with wars is
- 14:56S2: that anything is possible.
- 14:58S1: Well, I guess let's talk about that then. The prospect
- 15:00S1: for regime change, because we know that the Trump administration
- 15:03S1: has actively undermined any opposition that could rise up against
- 15:07S1: the Islamic Republic, right. Like Trump has taken money away
- 15:10S1: from Iranian human rights monitoring groups. And Kari Lake, who's
- 15:14S1: a Maga superstar within Trump's camp, she's cut funding to
- 15:17S1: the Open Technology Fund Agency, which is dedicated to providing
- 15:20S1: virtual private networks and satellite access to Iranians. We also
- 15:25S1: know the Voice of America, which was a local radio
- 15:27S1: station in Persian language, which could give Iranians access to, uh,
- 15:32S1: non propaganda, essentially to information that's been cut back. So
- 15:38S1: isn't it quite a leap, I guess, to think that
- 15:41S1: there could be regime change here or am I just
- 15:43S1: being pessimistic?
- 15:45S2: Well, the ayatollahs have been, as far as we can tell,
- 15:49S2: very successful in destroying and splintering any potential opposition. As
- 15:55S2: far as we know, there is no organized opposition in Iran,
- 15:59S2: so it's a difficult place to start. But there are
- 16:02S2: some opposition figures. We know that, for example, from the
- 16:06S2: fact that the US was able to smuggle into Iran
- 16:09S2: 6000 Starlink satellite terminals to help the Iranian opposition continue
- 16:14S2: to have communications and to get around the communications blackout
- 16:19S2: imposed by the regime. So somebody receiving those and somebody
- 16:22S2: using those. And in fact, John Bolton's point was, he said,
- 16:26S2: the main emphasis today for the US and its allies
- 16:31S2: really only got the one which is on the ground
- 16:34S2: in is Israel really need to be talking to the opposition,
- 16:38S2: negotiating with the opposition, trying to help and assist and
- 16:42S2: boost the opposition, because the opposition uniquely has an ability
- 16:45S2: to work inside the country to find any fissures or
- 16:49S2: differences between the different elements of the Iranian regime and
- 16:53S2: try to pick it apart, if in fact that's possible.
- 16:56S2: Because if the regime is going to fall, its security
- 17:00S2: apparatus or its political leadership or both need to fracture.
- 17:05S2: At this stage, you don't see the security apparatus starting
- 17:08S2: to fracture in any way. There's a frisson of excitement
- 17:11S2: that a single prison allowed some political prisoners to walk
- 17:15S2: out without explanation. That's a long way from either the
- 17:20S2: regular army or the Revolutionary Guard from splintering.
- 17:25S1: And I guess, Peter, just to wrap up, I want
- 17:27S1: to ask you what you think the political price, I guess,
- 17:30S1: could be for Trump in all of this. I mean,
- 17:32S1: this war might go on. For a very long time,
- 17:34S1: I've been seeing analysis that the Iranians will try to
- 17:37S1: prolong the war as long as possible in order to
- 17:40S1: drive up the cost of the war for Trump, American casualties,
- 17:42S1: the price of oil we've just mentioned, you know, so
- 17:45S1: that he can they can persuade him to declare victory
- 17:47S1: and just go home. Now, when we last spoke just
- 17:51S1: a few days ago, I think it was only about
- 17:53S1: a quarter of Americans who were in support of the war.
- 17:55S1: I can't imagine that's going to go anywhere but down.
- 17:59S1: Assuming that, tragically more American service members are killed in
- 18:02S1: this conflict, so could this be the thing that really
- 18:05S1: damages his power in the United States? Like, what are
- 18:08S1: the MAGA base feeling about this and other Republicans?
- 18:13S2: Well, it's similar to to Trump's tariff policy that was
- 18:18S2: essentially imposing a cost on American consumers to pay more
- 18:23S2: for their goods so that Trump could use the fiscal
- 18:25S2: space that created to give a tax cut to the rich.
- 18:28S2: So it's a direct transfer of wealth from American consumers
- 18:32S2: to wealthy taxpayers with this one. What you see with
- 18:36S2: the inflationary effect taking effect through the price of oil
- 18:40S2: and LNG, but also will flow on to the price
- 18:43S2: of plastics, polyesters and others as well. What you're going
- 18:46S2: to see there is again, an inflationary increase, which is
- 18:50S2: a direct transfer of wealth away from the American consumer
- 18:56S2: that can't help Trump's domestic standing. The two big domestic
- 19:00S2: problems he's got that are proving insurmountable for him. One
- 19:04S2: is inflation and the cost of living. That's the number
- 19:07S2: one concern for most Americans. And he's been unable to
- 19:09S2: do anything concrete about that except to try and talk
- 19:12S2: it down, which doesn't work. And the second is the
- 19:15S2: Epstein case. Again, it just doesn't go away. And he's
- 19:18S2: mishandled that pretty horribly. And that really rankles with the
- 19:23S2: MAGA base. Candace Owens. A Maga influencer of some notoriety,
- 19:31S2: she has described this not as the so-called Operation Epic Fury.
- 19:36S2: She calls it Operation Epstein Fury, on the basis that
- 19:40S2: it's a Trump attempt to deflect and distract from his
- 19:43S2: problem with the Epstein files and the ructions that's created
- 19:47S2: within the MAGA base. So the MAGA base is splintering
- 19:51S2: on this. The entire American population is paying the price
- 19:55S2: again for Trump policy. The longer this goes, as you say,
- 19:59S2: the more likely that price will go up for the
- 20:03S2: American public, not to mention the taxpayer cost of of
- 20:07S2: the actual waging of the war.
- 20:08S1: And also, I would suggest those who join the American
- 20:11S1: military are disproportionately from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. So there's going
- 20:16S1: to be young soldiers who are often not well off.
- 20:20S1: And I just I wonder how that will play with
- 20:23S1: Trump's base as well. Well, again, this sort of sheltering
- 20:26S1: the elite and then, you know, the sort of less
- 20:29S1: well-off paying in every way.
- 20:33S2: Well, this is a common syndrome with militaries everywhere and
- 20:36S2: and especially with the US military in the recent deployments
- 20:39S2: we've seen in this century, it would be completely politically
- 20:45S2: suicidal for Trump to put ground forces into Iran, because
- 20:49S2: that would guarantee a large number of American troops being killed,
- 20:54S2: which would indeed inflame opinion. Opinion is not with Trump
- 20:58S2: on this. It would turn savagely against him. So if
- 21:02S2: he succeeds as a as I said, if he succeeds,
- 21:06S2: he'll be hailed as a hero. And that might get
- 21:08S2: him a few brownie points. But it's hard to see
- 21:11S2: this as a big domestic political winner, particularly the longer
- 21:15S2: it goes on and the higher those costs run.
- 21:18S1: Well, we're lucky that you are commentating in this space,
- 21:22S1: so thank you so much, Peter.
- 21:23S2: Always a pleasure to chat to you, Samantha.
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