Latest / Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life / The Cut Tax: 13 Days at 100% or 63 Days at 95% Santa Clarita open houses market update

Transcript

The Cut Tax: 13 Days at 100% or 63 Days at 95% Santa Clarita open houses market update · Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Somewhere in this valley this morning, a seller's gonna open up a market report.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna see the median price went up ten thousand dollars last month and feel pretty good about themselves.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: That seller's about to leave$40,000 on the table, and the number that proves it is two columns over on the same page.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: They are already looking at.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you happen to be and whatever time.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: Santa Clarita Real Estate Daily Show brought to you by Santa Clarita Openhouses.com, where every number I'm about to read to you comes from straight off the MRL, the CRMLS feed.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: Everything today was pulled at 6.02 a.m.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Pacific Standard Time, Monday, September 7th, 2026, Labor Day.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: Happy Labor Day.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: So the banks are closed, the rate sheets are frozen where Friday left them.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Now hold one number for me today.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: Today's number is going to be 95.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to come back to it in about eight minutes.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to explain why two nearly identical houses on the same street sell 50 days apart.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Start with what the seller saw because it's real and it is published and it's not a lie.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: In August, that median close price in the Valley was$800,000.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: In September, so far it's$810,000.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's up$10,000.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: Most of you that read this think that the week stops there.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: Now the column that doesn't make the headline.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: In August, the median price per square foot was$432.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: In September, it's$415.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Down$17 a foot.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: Now both can be true at once, and they are.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: And there's exactly one way this happens.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: $810,000 at$415 a foot is a house of about$1,952 square feet.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: $800,000 at$432 a foot is about$1,852 square feet.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: The median didn't go up because houses got more valuable.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: It went up because the homes that closed in September were about 100 square feet bigger than the ones that closed in August.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: And you didn't get a raise.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: You sold more house for the same money.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to call that a phantom raise because it shows up in every report and never once in anybody's bank account.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the actual board.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: 823 homes active across the valley, 109 more taking backup offers, 191 in escrow, 14 coming soon, 39 closed in the last seven days.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: We have 188 in the last 30, 1,381 in the last six months.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: Against last Monday, active is up 13.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: Escrow is up seven, and the seven-day closed count is down to 10.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the last 30 days closed at a medium of$810,000.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: $415 a square foot.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: 34 days on the market.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: The last seven days ran a median at$884, excuse me,$844,000,$500 on 32 recorded closings, but at$404 a foot and 39 days.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: Higher price, cheaper foot, slower sale.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: The Phantom Rise again, one week at a time.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: Divide 823 active by the 188th that closed in 30 days, and you get 4.4 months of supply.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: Under four months, seller's market.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: Four to six, it's balanced.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Over six belongs to buyers.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: So the valley, as one number, is balanced.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: That one number is close to useless because when you split by property type and you don't have one market there, you have three.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Single family, 482 active, 139 closed in 30 days, 3.5 months of inventory.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: That's a seller's market.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: Condos, 212 active, 27 closed, 7.9 months of inventory.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: That's a buyer's market.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: And not a mild one.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: Townhomes, 111 active, 20 close, 5.6 months of inventory, balanced market.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: Same value, same week, same rates, and a single family seller and a condo seller are standing in two different economies.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: The 4.4 blends them into one.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: The sentence that helps actually neither.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: The city by spit city, it splits again.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: So Saugus is tight as at 3.1 months.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia 3.5, Castac 3.7, Stevenson Ranch 4.9, Canyon Country 5.4, Newhall 6.2, acted 9.2 months of inventory.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: Aquadol says is 111.9.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: Now that number that tells sellers what's actually happening, which is not price.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: It is what buyers will do about the asking price.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: So over the last 180 days, 31.9% of Santa Clarita sellers closed it over asking.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: Over 90 days, 29.9%.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: Over the last 30, 28.2%.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Under asking runs the other way.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: 45.2%, and then 46.8%, then 48.9%.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: Sales price against original asking goes 98.7%, 98.4%, then 98.2.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: Three separate measures, all moving the same direction all summer, and that's not noise.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: Noise goes both ways.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: This only goes one way in the last 30 days.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: 53 sellers closed over asking.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: 43 closed at asking.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: 92 closed under asking.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: The ones that got a median of$11,000 over the ones that gave up a median of$19,000 and the timing is what should stop you.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: The seller who closed over asking sat 13 days.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: The ones who closed under sat at 41, which brings me back to 95.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: So take every closing in this valley over the last 12 months, 1,322 sales with a full price history.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: 461 of those sellers cut their price at least once.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: That's 34.9%, about one in three.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: The median cut was$30,000, about 3.9%.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: Now here's what the two groups got.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: The sellers who never cut sold in a median of 13 days at 100% of their asking price.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: The sellers who cut sold in a median of 63 days at 95% of their original asking price.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: That is 95%.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: Not a market condition, a pricing decision.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: Measured 1,322 times.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: 63 days against 13 is 50 extra days of keeping a house show ready for strangers.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: And 95 cents against 100 on an$810,000 ask is about$40,500.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: I call that the cut tax.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody sends you a bill, you pay it in the 50 days, and again at the closing table.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: And the whole thing is assessed in the first two weeks.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: Before a single buyer walks in, the market doesn't decide what your house is worth.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: Your first 13 days do.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: And after that, you're negotiating from behind, and everybody can see the days on market.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: And the share cutting is climbing with everything else.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: 34.9% over 180 days, 37.6 over 90, 39.9% over the last 30.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: Now let me hand you the other side.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: It's best evidence because I'm not here to talk anybody into a panic.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: 188 clones closed here in the last 30 days.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Homes not clones, and 1,381 in the last six months.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: Sales price to asking price across the valley is still 100%.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: And the median single family home still closed at$880,000.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: Zillow's home value index for July 31st has the Los Angeles Metro at$964,934.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's up 0.9% year over year, flat not falling.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: Over 90 days, this valley price trend reads flat.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: Over 180 days, it reads down 1% on median and 2.1 on price per square foot.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: Now that's a market slowly handing leverage to buyers, not one that's falling apart.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: Anybody telling you a crash arrived this month is selling something.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now here's the part that surpasses most everyone.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: Surprises, actually, agents included.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: So you split that last 12 months by price band and ask under which band is strongest?
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: Under$600,000, that 23.5% over asking, and 43.8% of those sellers cut from their original price, the highest cut rate of any band.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: Now 600,000 to 800,000, 36.6% over asking, closing at 99.8% of original asking, the best in the valley.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: 800,000 to a million, 39.1% over.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's the highest share anywhere, then it falls off.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_00: 1 million to 1.5 million, 24.5% over.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: Above 1.5 million, you have 22.4% over and 65.7% under.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: Roughly two of every three sellers above 1.5 million take less than they asked.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: So the strength isn't at the cheap end and not at the top, it's right in the middle.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: Both ends are soft and the middle is carrying the valley.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: So if you own a condo under 600 grand and assume cheap means fast, cheap here means competing with 212 other condos.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: Price cuts, and this is a hard seven-day window since September 1st.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: 98 price drops across the valley, six increases, 16 homes back on the market after a deal fell apart, 79 new listings.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: Those 98 drops took$2,634,517 off the asking prices of this valley in seven days.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: An average cut of about$26,883 a home.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia led with$27 drops, totaling$769,239, and Canyon Country had$23, totaling$505,899.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: But the one nobody expects.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_00: Stevenson Ranch had only four drops, and they totaled$218,000.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's$54,500 a home, more than double the valley average.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: Stale inventory means listings.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: Past 60 days is 240 homes out of 823.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: 29% of this market has set more than two months.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: Now, who is actually buying?
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: Because the myths here cost sellers real money.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: Over the last 12 months, 2,537 closings with a recorded loan type.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: Conventional, 59.8%, FHA 12.3, cash 10.6, cash to a new loan 7.1%, VA 5.4.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody in this business tells you cash is king.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: Now look at what cash did.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: Cash buyers closed in a median of 33 days at 98.7% of asking.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: VA buyers closed in a median of 26 days at 100% of asking.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: The VA buyer was seven days faster and paid full asking price.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: The cash buyer was slower and was the only group in the entire data set that paid under asking.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that makes sense.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: The second you think about it, instead of repeating it, cash is not a magic wand.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: It is leverage.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: And a buyer holding leverage uses it to pay less.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: So you take the discount in exchange for certainty.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: So if a seller is looking at a VA offer and somebody says that those are difficult, that 12-month record in the Ohm Valley says that that buyer closes faster and pays your number.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: VA share runs 6.9% in Acton down to 2.2 in Newhall.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: Rates, rates, rates, rates, always rates.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: Freddie Mac's weekly survey published Thursday, September 3rd, put the 30-year fixed at 6.71%, up from 6.66, and that 15 year at 6.04.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: But Mortgage News Daily, which prices off actual lender rate sheets daily instead of a weekly survey, had that 30 year at 6.89% on Friday, September 4th.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: That gap is not a contradiction.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: Freddie Mac is a survey and it lags.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: The daily number is closer to what a lender quotes you this afternoon.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: So when somebody says rates are 6.71%, ask which one they read.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: And the same sheet has FHA at 6.44% and VA at 6.46, both under the 6.89 conventional number, which is another reason that VA buyers move fast and still pay your price.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: Now payment math on the Valley Median,$810,000, 20% down, a loan of$648,000, 30-year fixed at 6.71%.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's about$4,186 a month of principal and interest.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: At$6.89, it's$4,264.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: A$78 difference, and that's my calculation, not a quote.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: A Federal Reserve meets September 15th and 16th, eight days from today, and it's one of the meetings where they publish projections, and that's the meeting that moves rate sheets.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: The job number feeding it landed Friday, September 4th.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 162,000 jobs added in August, and unemployment steady at 4.1%.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_00: Inside it, construction added 22,000 jobs.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: The sector that builds houses is hiring.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: City Deep Dive today is going to be Castac because Castac is quietly the best seller's market in the valley and nobody says so.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: 56 active.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: 15 closed in the last 30 days, 3.7 months of supply, median close,$754,900 on a$396 a square foot range, 41 days.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: Now that 90-day outcomes of 50 Castac closings, 50% sold over asking.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: That's half.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: Now the Valley runs 29.9.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: Castac sellers closed at 100% of their original asking price.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_00: The only city in the Valley sitting at 100 on that measure, and only 32% ever cut.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: They're not lucky.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: They're pricing correctly the first time.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: And the data shows exactly what that buys.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_00: Put Stevenson Ranch right next to it, 34 closings over 90 days, 8.8% over asking, 61.8% under, 41.2% cut, closing at 97.8% of original asking.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: Stevenson Ranch has the highest median in the valley at$1,086,000 and the highest price per square foot at$449.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: It also has 64 days on market and the worst seller outcomes here.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: Now expensive and slower, not opposites.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, they travel together.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: They're in the same car.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: And this is not a September thing.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: You pull that 10-year almanac on the site, Santa Cruz Openhouses.com.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: Canyon Country is up 57% since 2017, finishing 2025 at a median at$710,000.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: Newhall up 59%, Valencia up 54%.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: Saugus up 51%, Castac up 50%, Stevenson Ranch is up 41%.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: Finishing 2025 at 888,777.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: Love the number.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's dollars.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: The most expensive city in the valley grew the slowest over a decade.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: So the cheapest city, compounded fastest, and the priciest, slowest over 10 years.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: And this morning, the$600,000 to$1 million band is the strongest here, while everything above$1.5 million has 65.7% of sellers taking less than they asked.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: Same pattern, 10 years apart.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: And that's about as close to a rule as this valley gives you.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: Open houses, 33 on the board, 11 of them are today on Labor Day, 11 to 4, 11 sellers decided.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: A Hyundai, excuse, holiday Monday was worth opening the door for.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: Next weekend has 11 on Saturday the 12th and 10 on Sunday the 13th.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: By City, Valencia has 21 of the 33, Canyon Country 6, Saugus and Newhall two each, Acton and Santa Clarita, one apiece.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia is running 64% of the open houses on 30% of the active inventory.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_00: If you're a buyer, that's your Saturday.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: What people typed into the site this week.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Somebody asked whether there are open houses in Santa Clarita this weekend.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: Now you have that.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: Somebody searched for a single address, 27648-ELK Ridge.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: Two more just asked for the market stats and the snapshot, which means two people this week didn't want a story about the market.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: They wanted the numbers with nothing on top.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: That's most of why this show exists.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: One gap straight up.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: I couldn't reach the public forums this morning where buyers and sellers talk to each other.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_00: So everything today is in the CRMLS.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: Freddie Mac, Mortgage News Daily, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Zillow, and the Almanac on the site.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: So what do you do with this today?
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: Well, if you're selling, that whole game is your first 13 days.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: Price to the price per square foot in your city, not the median headline, because the median measures the size of the house that's sold, not the value of yours.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_00: Get it right on day one, and the record stays 100% in 13 days.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: Get it wrong on the cut tax is 50 extra days and about$40,500.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: If you're buying, look under the$600,000 figure and above$1.5 million.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: Those are the two ends where sellers are taking less.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_00: And the 240 homes here have sat more than 60 days.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: A listing at day 70 has a seller who already had the hard conversation.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: A house doesn't go stale, the price does.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_00: So tomorrow I'm going to dive into New Hall because 52 active condos that gets two closings in 30 days is either the best buying opportunity in the valley or a warning.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: And the feed's going to tell us which.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_00: Everything I read to you is from Santa ClaritaOpenhouses.com.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: Pulled at 6 02 AM Pacific Standard Time this morning, and it will be different tomorrow.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Connor with honor.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: Be safe out there, and I will see you soon.