Latest / HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull / Beyond Interest Rates: Inside the Housing Market with Realtor Chaz Lawrence

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Beyond Interest Rates: Inside the Housing Market with Realtor Chaz Lawrence · HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull

• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Friday Live.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: I am Michael Kutch of HBK Provident.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: And as always, Brian Peluso, our one of my partners.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: But we're changing the format up a little this week.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: We have a special guest, Chaz Lawrence.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: He is a realtor in St.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: Augustine and also acts as a property manager.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: So we're really happy to have him.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: Given the housing data we got this week and the Fed starting to cut rates, we thought it was a pertinent time to get his inside view of the housing market.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: So welcome, Chaz.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome, Brian.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks for having me.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_02: Always great to be here.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: So as always, we'll start with the market, some of the um economic data, which in this case leads into Chaz's expertise.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_01: So then we'll let him take it away for a little bit.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: I've got a few questions I want to pick his brain on and hopefully give us some insight on not only the local market, but the national data.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: So if that's okay with you guys, I'm gonna get started.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: Let's do it.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: So um we had a nice update on Monday in the market.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: The SP hit all-time high, but then that was quick quickly reversed on Tuesday and we had follow through the rest of the week.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: Um, today was looking like it was gonna be a nice upday.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: We got the I I would say the biggest economic indicator this week was the PCE data, which is in the Fed's in preferred inflation gauge.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: Um, that really hasn't been a big surprise to the markets in the last six, eight months because economists have gotten very good at calculating the PCE deflator from um the inputs of CPI and PPI, which come out earlier in the month.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_01: So no big surprises there.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_01: Um the headline number was a little higher than expected on a monthly basis, but came in line on an annualized basis at 2.7%, and core is at 2.9%.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_01: Um, core, it's really been in a range between 0.1 and like 0.3 for the last six months.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_01: So not really bad, but that annualized number is pretty high and getting further away from the Fed's target.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_01: I wouldn't be surprised to see a 3% reading um in September.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but besides that, we got the GDP data, which came in line um on an annualized basis at 2.5%.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: But it was actually a big surprise on the on a quarterly basis for Q2.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I think the figure was 3.8%.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_01: So that's healthy.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um, jobless claims continue to tick lower.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_01: So although hiring is pretty much stalling out, and we will get the hiring data next week, which is supposed to come in at 45,000.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: Um it could start to lead to um higher unemployment numbers just because that that's likely to flip negative.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: We did get a negative reading in June.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um, besides that, we have some positive news out of the housing market for the first time in a while.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, new home sales, I think, hit the highest levels of around 800,000.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and that dates back to I believe January of 2022.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: Um, existing home sales and permits are also up.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe the the market's anticipating the the first uh rate cut that we got last week um started to play into that.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: What are you seeing, Chaz?
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: First question, what is what's the market been like in the past six months?
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: I and if if you wouldn't mind touching on both the uh transactional for sale market as well as the rental market.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so specifically more looking towards Florida and and St.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_02: John's County, even more so in the St.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_02: Augustine area.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_02: Um, the last six months have definitely been difficult, have been something that has been a struggling year.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I always tell people buyers think that we're all the way back in the 2008-2009 market crash, and sellers think we're in the peak of COVID again.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_02: And it's that clash of everybody trying to figure out um where we currently are and what's going on.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I do see some positive notes.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_02: Um, August was the lowest interest rates that we've had for the whole entire year.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_02: And um, Florida realtors saw that pending home sales went up by 10%.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_02: So things are getting under contract.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_02: Um, what's concerning is if they're gonna stick or not.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_02: July, um, Redfin, I put a report in that in saying that August or Jacksonville market and even Tampa as well, they're sitting right about 20% on deals that are actually falling through.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_02: Fort Logger is well, even a little bit higher, around 21%.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_02: So what what it's looking like is that things are getting under contract, but are they going to stay under contract?
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that actually happened to me personally, and I was trying to sell my house in Sarasota, and I had a contract um that was in place for I think about 27 days, and then he pulled out because he said he couldn't get financing.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I think he just wanted to get out of the deal.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: I offered some alternatives like seller financing and collateralized um loans from your portfolio.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_01: So I think the real story was you just wanted to get out.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and that was unfortunate.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_02: You get under contract now.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_02: You gotta, you know, you got one in five chance that the deal's gonna fall apart.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_02: So I always tell my my customers, you know, hey, let me get under contract.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_02: Don't pop the Dom Perry on first.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_02: We gotta wait till we get to that closing bridge.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_02: But you can pick up a bottle of Andre and we can still sell a little bit, but you know, we're not all the way there yet.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_02: So we still got a couple more hurdles to get through.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and if you're specifically looking at St.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_02: Augustine, St.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_02: John's County, these are just some numbers from our local board here.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so some very hyper-focused numbers.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_02: Q2 of last year versus Q2 of this year.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_02: Um, the volume of homes sold has decreased by 24%.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_02: What is a positive note is that sales prices actually rose 6%.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_02: So sellers are still holding firm and wanting to get that dollar.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_02: That, you know, COVID pricing, sellers think they're there, buyers think it's 2008 market crash.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_02: So when the buyer finds the house they really want, the sellers are staying strong in regards to their price point.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and it's a very similar number so far.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_02: Looking at Q3, we're obviously not done yet.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but the biggest thing that's really going on is patience.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_02: Sellers need to learn some patience right now.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_02: Um, last year in St.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_02: Augustine in particular, we went seven months where our days on market dipped under 100.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_02: So things were moving off the market around that 90-day-ish mark.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_02: Um, this year we've only hit that mark one time in April.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_02: Other than that, we've been above the 100-day mark.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_02: Um September, we're sitting around 150 days on market looking.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_01: Wow.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_02: September that we're gonna close that.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, affordability is just so tough between interest rates and home prices.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: I think the stat is now um first time home buyers' average age is 38.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_01: So it's just amazing.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_01: Like at least in Florida, it seems like if you have a family and want a 2,000 square foot house, you're paying at least$500,000.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_02: Yep.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_02: Yep, yeah, you you are.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_02: Affordability is a huge problem that we feel, and especially in our county, we have the best school district in the state of Florida, and we get so many people who are coming here to capitalize on that.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_02: And then, of course, just our local tourism, a growing town, our county board and commissioners is very pro-growth.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_02: They're very much happy to give out permits for new builders to come in for new communities, but all these new communities, it still feels and seems like that price point and the data as well is still just very, very expensive.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and it you know, mortgage rates aren't great.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_02: It's a hard time to to jump into you know becoming a home buyer or a homeowner right now.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_01: So you are you suggesting your clients, if they have the luxury of having a second home and want to get rid of it to uh now a good time to sell, or is it better to run it out for a while and wait for things to kind of improve?
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_02: Well we're seeing a lot of right now in regards to second homes and investment purchases for people is um is failed short-term rentals, people who purchase short-term rentals when interest rates were really good and the market was favorable, and they've purchased these locations for short-term purposes, and we had a massive pent-up demand of people wanting to get out and go on vacation and go places and politics aside, wanting to come to Florida, typically more um allowed state to go and do things when COVID was going on.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_02: A lot of people were coming and visiting and hanging out and moving down here, and short-term rentals was doing wonderful, and now that business has really started to decline.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_02: And I'm seeing a big increase of people who are either A, flipping their short-term rentals to long-term rentals just to meet the mortgage, and/or people trying to sell their second home or investment homes, but then in turn flipping them back to long-term because short-term hasn't worked, or they're waiting 150, 120 days to sell their house, and it's just not coming off the market.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so it has been a benefit for my business.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_02: I've received a lot of calls on a lot of people wanting to flip to long term because the short-term houses just aren't making it.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_02: It's a lot of the people who've come down and purchased a very, you know, basic three-bedroom, two-bath home to turn into short term.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_02: They didn't really go the extra steps to turn it into a true vacation experience.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_02: And that's really where you have to be to see be successful in short term right now is it has to be a vacation experience.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_02: No, you're gonna come down, go swimming in the heated pool close to the beach, close to shopping and restaurants.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_02: You're not meeting that criteria down here, you're not gonna be successful short term at all.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: And then another tough aspect is insurance has gone up a lot, and uh I I feel like the property taxes in St.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_01: John's are very high.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we we're we had to go to citizens.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_02: We got dropped um for our plan.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_02: I live out in the country.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not in a flood zone, I'm I'm 25 miles away from the ocean.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, I'm I'm not a high-risk home, quote end unquote.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_02: And we had to go to the citizens because we got dropped.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_02: And it's it's crazy to see that happening left and right, left and right, and these ocean front homes and these beach houses and properties that are just getting dropped left and right, and there's no other option to go shopping.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_02: They're stuck with state-run citizens or they're trying to find something else.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_02: And if they do find something else, it's not usually that favorable.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: How about for someone that's looking for to purchase their first home?
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_01: Do you think it's better to rent for a little while?
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_02: I think the biggest thing in regards to somebody looking to purchase their first home is where they are financially with themselves currently, right now.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_02: Um, it really just depends on where you are.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_02: If you have uh if you have a savings set aside that you can put a healthy down payment on the property in order to, you know, get rid of that PMI, because that's gonna definitely keep your mortgage up.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_02: So if you have enough that you can put down, so you don't have the private mortgage insurance.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so if you don't have to do that, if you have enough after putting that down payment down to be able to have a background cushion fund if your AC craps out or if you need a new roof or a big plumbing leak, so you have some some safety funds to fall back on.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so you won't be plumbing a financial ruin if one of those types of situations occur, then I do, I I really do think that it's a great time to purchase if you are one of those individuals.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_02: But I just recently saw an article the other day that 67% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_01: I know, it's crazy.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and it's struggling and it's hard and it's difficult.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_02: And if you can't have a healthy down payment and still have the background to eat an uh an unexpected maintenance expense, then I I do really think that it's not a bad idea to rent and to wait to see if the market is going to become more favorable for you.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_02: Interest rates start to get better and or pricing gets better, um, you know, and continue to build those savings.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_02: Because you know, if if your AC craps out as a renter, it's not your problem, it's your your property owner's problem.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_02: So, you know, that that can give you some less anxiety and less stress.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you're paying someone else's mortgage and equity, but you know, you're you're not burning yourself by taking something on you can't afford in the long run.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_02: Um I I I like to tell people if you do have that nest egg and you're ready to go, don't sit on the sidelines and wait for the Goldilocks time.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_02: Um, my best friend bought a house in uh 2021 uh in July, and it was the Goldilocks time.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_02: He's like barely above 3%.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_02: Pricing was still not at the very top of what it was.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_02: And I look at him, I'm like, Zayn, you can never sell your house.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_02: You're stuck, you're stuck here forever.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_02: Like it doesn't matter, you are just stuck.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_02: And I think some buyers are possibly waiting for that to occur.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_02: And but it a lot of that is also luck.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_02: You know, we don't know exactly what or will happen at certain times.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_02: So if you do, if you're in a good situation, don't wait.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_02: Jump at it, take advantage of R.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_02: If interest rates start to drop in the next year or two that are really, really favorable, refinance.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_02: Refinance is through the roof when COVID interest rates were so low.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_02: So take that, take advantage of that.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, if that portrays itself.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_02: But if you're ready to go, pull the trigger now.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: So after a year of the Fed just pausing on interest rates, they they finally started the rate cutting cycle again um this past week to four to four and a quarter.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um, they're anticipating another two cuts this year.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna give you my theory on this, and then I want to hear your take on it.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm skeptical.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: Say we get another four rate cuts in the next 12 months.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_01: I'm skeptical we're gonna get a big move out of the long end.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_01: Um, given where the debt levels are um and just the threat of inflation, I don't see the long end going down, which is what mortgage rates are more tied to.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: And if if that doesn't happen and they come down with the short end, I have a theory that are we potentially gonna see a flood of inventory on the secondary market.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, new home sales are already having a big inventory level.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_01: Is that gonna create that same inventory like build-up on the the secondary market?
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I I I do think that that's gonna happen.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_02: I I would I would agree with you on that.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I think that there are a lot of people who are have listed their house and couldn't get in under contract or got under contract and fell apart who are who are sitting on the sidelines waiting for that market to start getting better and put their property out there.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that specifically for St.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_02: Augustine, there's a lot of condos, townhomes, oceanfront properties that are second home investment properties that people are really sitting by and waiting to try to capitalize on a good selling period.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_02: So I yeah, I think if if if rates do start to go down, um that yeah, that there's a lot of those second second homes, not new builds, but other single fire single family homes that people have been trying to sell are gonna hit the market.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_02: And we could see a big flood of inventory.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_02: And for our county, even more our new builds are just astronomical in our area.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_01: So do you think overall prices have the potential to come down if if that scenario plays out?
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_02: I hope so.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_02: I I do.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_02: I I think I I do think pricing should come down and be a little bit more level and a little bit more comfortable.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_02: Um but we'll wait and see.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, the the data's not showing that you know our average sales price is still coming up by six percent.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_02: So you know, but it could turn, we could get an influx of buyers that pent up demand of buyers wanting to move and be in places and buy things and waiting for interest rates, it you know, it could just be another supply and demand battle again.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_01: And if they do come down, we really need the labor market to stay stable.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_01: If not, there goes spending.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_02: Yep, absolutely.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_01: But if we do start to see this trend continue like we got this week, I mean that that's gonna be a huge boost to the US economy.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, yeah.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_02: Well, they I think they put a correction out.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_02: Was it yesterday or this morning that on the for the second quarter for the GDP that they put a correction on it for going up, which is the they said the Fed was looking at if that was gonna possibly um factor them in regards to their next rate change or not, that they might not.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's very interesting.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: Their their dot plot showed um an increase in growth for this year and next year, increase in inflation and unemployment relatively the same.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_01: So they're really having a tough time with their two mandates fighting against each other right now.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah, it's uh that's not a job I want right now.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: It's pretty difficult right now, but I don't want that one.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_01: I I feel bad for Powell.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: He probably doesn't have a whole lot of friends.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_02: Nope, nope, nope, no, his phone is not getting good phone calls.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_01: So here's an interesting stat.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_01: I I know affordability is really tough right now, and we have seen an increase in uh the debt service ratio.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_01: That's how much debt you have relative to your income.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: Um, similar thing with delinquencies, mortgage delinquencies have come up a little bit, but if you look at it versus what's this, 30 years, um, 40 years, it's it's near the average.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: So not really at a concerning level.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, we don't like to see the trend ticking up, but nothing to be concerned about at the current moment.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_01: Um, next week, as I've mentioned, we're gonna get a lot more data.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: We have the job openings, we have ADP numbers on Wednesday, we have the non-farm payrolls on Friday.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we also have ISM manufacturing services.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: So it's gonna be a big potentially market-moving event.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_02: I'm excited.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_02: I'm I'm positive about where the market's going.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_02: There's there's a lot of positive things happening.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_02: You know, the data is a little too too soon to see, but you know, getting back to a balanced market is a healthy market, you know, where buyers and sellers are very on the level playing field.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_02: Sellers in control or buyers are, that's not a good thing.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_01: I would say overall, on a on a medium term, I'm I'm pretty bullish about the stock market.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_01: I think we should be due for a pullback, though.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_01: We've had quite the run since April.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: Um, valuations are getting very stretched, and uh just something that's healthy if we want to keep a bull market continuing on.
• 18:29
  unknown: Yeah.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_01: So I personally bought a house from Chaz.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: I highly recommend them if you're in the St.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_01: Augustine area.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_01: Um, he really went above and beyond.
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I really felt like he cared about my interests and really was working for me.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_01: So um he works for Lighthouse Realty, which is near Butler Beach.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Butler Beach.
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_02: It's owned by my family.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_02: We've been in business for 25 years.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_02: So we were we're a true small independent real estate office.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_02: We're not affiliated with any corporate brand.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so we're all of Gardam when you're here, you're family.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_01: And I really felt that way.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: And I have all the faith in you as a property manager, too.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: So I appreciate all the the work you've done for me, and I plan on continuing to use you as long as I have that as a rental property.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_02: And I I appreciate your business.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_02: So thank you very much.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_02: I appreciate you having me on today, too.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_02: This has been fun to talk about things.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_02: I look at a little, you know, data nerd sometimes, and I don't need to talk to many other people about that.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_02: So I guess.
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's it was so great and insightful getting your take on the the local market here.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: I I mean, I see it from the national level and just my personal home.
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but it's nice to see someone that does this every day and is on both the seller side and buyer side as well as the rental market.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_01: So very insightful.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, appreciate you coming on.
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, thank you.
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_02: I appreciate it.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: Brian, before we head out, you want to talk about your new blog post series you're starting?
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I do.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_00: Uh and I think everybody by now recognize it's difficult for me to be in front of a camera and a microphone and not say much.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_00: So, Mike, thanks for Chad.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: Chaz, this has been great.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you so much.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_00: We appreciate your time, and we uh certainly appreciate you taking care of Mike and uh a couple things he's been working on.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: So I I thought it was fascinating.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, I will follow up on one thing that Chaz had mentioned, you know, kind of from a financial planning perspective.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: And Chaz had mentioned, hey, you know, if this is your time to buy and you've done your planning and you have your personal reserve, uh, then move forward with it.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_00: We work with so many people that are, as Chaz had mentioned, looking for a Goldilocks scenario.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: And it's really in two spaces.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_00: One space is when they're buying a property, whether that be a second property property or a new primary home or whatever it is.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_00: You know, so many people are waiting for everything to align perfectly.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and it never will.
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_00: You know, it's it's like when we first started having children before um, you know, when we were newly married and contemplating it, finally somebody said, Brian, it's never a perfect time.
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_00: When it's your time, uh if that works out uh in your life, then then you can't wait.
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_00: So I I thought that was very, very insightful from a financial planning perspective.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_00: The other situation that people are looking for, the goalilke scenario, which will never occur, by the way, is when it comes to taxes.
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_00: Well, wait a minute, if I sell some of this now, I'll pay a little bit less tax, and then a tax law change, it'll all be in my favor, and it'll be magic.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_00: And 20 years from now, you won't have moved forward on your financial goals.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_00: And so what we're really trying to do in our financial planning, and this will tie into my my new series, uh social media series, what we're trying to do is put people in a position that when they're ready for those transitions in their life, that uh regardless, even if it's not the perfect interest rate time, purchase price, uh not the perfect capital gain scenario, that you can go ahead and move forward with those things.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_00: So, Chad, I I really that really uh spoke to my heart um when you say, hey, if if you're ready and you've done your planning and you've done your preparation, when is the time?
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_00: Now is the time.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so thank you for that.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: I thought that was tremendously helpful.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, my news uh social media series is is really talking about um how financial planning is more about time than money.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: Our two most limited resources um are time and money.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_00: And financial planning deals with a lot of money, but it's really about time.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, how do you maximize your time?
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: How do you um use money uh to make the most efficient use of your time, whether that be uh your retirement income planning, you know, when is my time to retire?
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_00: And and am I going to be comfortable and not worry about these things and the the you know, the PMIs and the interest rates and the CPIs and all these other things that Mike studies on your behalf, uh, that you don't have to worry about those things.
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_00: That you are maximizing your time.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_00: Um, kind of like Chaz was talking about.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: So that there's gonna be a series.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_00: There's a there's an eight-part series, it's gonna start uh October 9th out on social media.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's gonna be LinkedIn and Facebook and Instagram now.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and so we'll do that over uh that is a eight-part series starting October uh ninth.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: So check that out.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: They're they're brief, uh they are quick, but we really believe, and our philosophy is that financial planning is more about maximizing your most limited resource, which is really your time.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_00: And if I tie that back into what Chaz was talking about, um, you know, we if you've done your preparations and you're not going to find the Goldilocks from the price and interest rate and all these other things, when it is your time, make those moves, whether it be retire, buy properties, whatever it is.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: Because if you do that, um the numbers, the money part of it becomes less important, and you really become, you know, you start to maximize your time and your enjoyment of that most limited resource, your time.
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_00: So that's what that uh series is about.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_00: So uh, but Chaz, thanks again.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_00: This is this is really great stuff.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_02: No, of course.
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_02: No, thank you.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_02: And yeah, echo a lot of the things that you're you're saying as well.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_01: So all right.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: Well, before we go, I'm just gonna flip on the disclosures to make sure no one takes these recommendations to heart.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_01: And Chaz, you can feel free to hop off whenever you want.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_01: We really appreciate you coming on.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks for having me, Jenks.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_02: I really appreciate it.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_02: Absolutely.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great weekend, thanks.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: You guys too.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_00: Security is offered through LPL Financial LLC, member FINRA, and SIPC.org.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_00: Advisory service is offered through LPL Financial LLC, a registered investment advisor.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_00: Brian Peluso, Michael Kutch, and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLC.
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_00: Content discussed is for informational purposes only and not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment strategy.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_00: Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial or its affiliates.
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_00: All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_00: This communication may include links or references to third-party websites.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_00: These links are provided as a convenience only LPL Financial and its representatives are not responsible for the accuracy or content of such sites.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_00: Brian, Mike, and David and HBK Provident Advisors may only transact business in states where they are properly registered or exempt from registration.
• 25:35
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