Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast - College Football Spring Best Bets w/ Collin Wilson

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The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast - College Football Spring Best Bets w/ Collin Wilson · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: the Tennessee Redline one eight nine or visit one eight
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  Speaker 1: Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman,
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. This is going
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: to be a very special show because while NBA we
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: are in the midst of NBA playoffs, there's so much
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: stuff happening in college football. Because we have just ended
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: spring practices for a lot of programs, there is value
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: to be had across a variety of markets. We're gonna
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: have Action Network senior writer, college football expert, host of
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: the Big Bets on Campus podcast, one of our most
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: favorite podcast in the world during college football season. He's
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: on the Gimme every week talking about golf, he bets baseball.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Colin Wilson does it all. Simon Hunter, my bff, my companion,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: MIKEA and Padre You're gonna join me on the show today.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: I'm super excited. And before I bring you in, I
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: want to remind people the world is opening up more
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: than ever. Action Network has not been on the road
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: for a live event with fans in two years. We
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: can't take it anymore. We're sending a whole whole army
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: of people out to Vegas, and we're gonna have next
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: week on April at Circus Stadium Swim in downtown Las Vegas. Wednesday,
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  Speaker 1: we're hosting a pre NFL Draft happy hour, open bar,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: surprise guest betting tips from some of your favorite action pros.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Gotta be twenty one and over, but it's totally free.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: But it does acchoir an r s v P. So
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: if you're in Vegas next week, check out the link
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: in this episode description go our R s v P. Listen.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: These events are amazing. We've loved doing them, we missed
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: doing them. We're excited to get back out of the road,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: connect with fans, talk about betting in real life. I
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: r L as the kids call it. Simon, let me
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  Speaker 1: ask you a question. Have you made any college football
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: bets yet? So you're gonna ask me about my new car?
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we can talk about college football. Chat. I've
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: made two bets on college football. One is pretty stupid,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: as you know. Chat. I'm an old soul and I
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: used to love to say Dick Van Dyke. I don't
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: know why. As a kid I used to love to
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: say Dick Van Dyke, So of course I bet for
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Heisman Tyler van Dyke, no other reason. Then Dick van Dyke,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: so that was my one stupid bet. And then every
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: year I always bet Banna. It's like the It was
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: like the Tom Brady era, no matter what, as soon
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: as season ended, our first two bets were always Brady
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: minus usually two hundred or minus one three hundred to
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  Speaker 1: win the a f C East and then Tom Brady
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  Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl, which was usually pretty good
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: value is probably like plus eight hundred plus seven hundred
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  Speaker 1: for a lot of those years. So same thing with Bama.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Every year the off season comes around, first bet I
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: make always Bama national champ. All right, well guess what, Uh,
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  Speaker 1: Colin Wilson is joining us. Before we dig into your
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: reaction to spring practice, your reaction to coaching changes your
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: thoughts on long shot Heisman, your CFB futures that you bet.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: I know you always like to make a very early
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: bet as soon as the futures are posted in Vegas. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: can you take on Simon's long shot Heisman and his
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  Speaker 1: CFB future? Well, you can't knock anybody that's gonna take Alabama.
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  Speaker 1: I would knock his price because I think it's two
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  Speaker 1: to round two to one around the market. But assume
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: that they lose a game somewhere, what's that future gonna
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: go to plus two twenty five plus two fifty. It's
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: never gonna get better than right now. I would argue though,
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  Speaker 1: that if you're going to bet on Alabama, you probably
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: should take a Brice Young future because the price is
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: better at plus three fifty, and then you can hedge
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: it with say, you know one of the teams that's
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: gonna make the final four. I'm sorry that the college
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: football playoff against that. So if Alabama is going to
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  Speaker 1: have a flawless season like they did two years ago
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  Speaker 1: and they're gonna post the Heisman winner like they did
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  Speaker 1: last year, probably gonna get a better number with uh
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: their quarterback than you are for them to win it all?
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: All right? What about Tyler van Dyke? I love Tyler
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  Speaker 1: Van Dyke, former baseball player. Uh. He covered a lot
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  Speaker 1: of spreads, hit a lot of overs for everybody, and
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: now he has Josh Gaddis as his offensive coordinator. If
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: you're unfamiliar with that, he is the reason Josh Gaddis
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  Speaker 1: is a reason Michigan football on offense was so spectacular
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: on the ground last year. Now Kristal Ball goes out says,
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  Speaker 1: I need an offensive coordinator. I want the best in
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: the land. He gets Josh Gaddis, who used to be
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: a saving disciple, very well known throughout And so you're
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  Speaker 1: gonna see tempo in space and a lot of Van Dyke,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: and the a c C is up for grabs. And
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  Speaker 1: we can talk about this. Clemson is not Clemson anymore.
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  Speaker 1: The a c C Is up for grabs. So I
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  Speaker 1: don't hate it. But if you're gonna win the Heisman,
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  Speaker 1: you have to make the college football Playoff. That's just
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  Speaker 1: the way things are these days. And I'm not sure
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  Speaker 1: Miami can do that. All I want to make sure
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: people knew Tyler Van Dyke, quarterback at Miami. Josh Gaddis
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  Speaker 1: new offensive coordinator at Miami. That's who we're talking about. Uh, Colin,
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  Speaker 1: you famously will make a bet as soon as you
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  Speaker 1: possibly can on college football futures, um while you're in
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  Speaker 1: Vegas for the college football National Title Game. Tell me
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  Speaker 1: right now the bets you made as soon as the
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: futures hit the board, and you could when you were
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: in Vegas. We were in Vegas during the National Championship Game,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: and there were multiple six figure tickets in that booth
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: at the West Gate, and everybody was concentrating on the
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: game in the fourth quarter, and I was already thinking
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: about what team I'm hitting for next year. The second
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: the game was over. I won't name the sports book,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: but they posted eight to one on Ohio State. I
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  Speaker 1: slammed it. Now, it's five to one everywhere right now.
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  Speaker 1: You can't convince me otherwise that this is an Alabama
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State year. In the National Championship Game, they returned
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  Speaker 1: the guy that won the Heisman. Ohio State returns a
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: guy that finished fourth. They have the best weapons outside
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: of the tight ends. And let's not forget that Ohio
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: State now has Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator. You wonder
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: why Oklahoma State was so good because they had Jim Knowles.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: He's got the mightas touch. Everything he turns is gold.
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State's biggest problem the last couple of years. They
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: can't play any defense, and they get into shootouts with teams.
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  Speaker 1: That's not a problem anymore. He's gonna come in and
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  Speaker 1: clean up. But they have two different defensive coordinators last
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: year that a guy take over interim, one guy in
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  Speaker 1: the box, come down to the field. It's been a
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  Speaker 1: mess of Ohouse State. But that's not gonna be a
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  Speaker 1: problem for Ryan Day. Five to one on Ohio State
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  Speaker 1: to win the national championship. That is a game. I
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: expect him to play Alabama and and meet each other
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  Speaker 1: in college. Were all playoff in the finals Alabama right now,
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  Speaker 1: it's about plus one s five. No, No, you're right,
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  Speaker 1: plus one, Georgia about plus three fifties, So three and
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  Speaker 1: a half to one Ohio State a little a little
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  Speaker 1: bit lower than five to one. Um, and let's see,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: we got uh Clemson at ten to one, and then
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: we dip into the thirties to one, fourties to one, etcetera, etcetera.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: So you hammered Ohio State about five to one. Did
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: you go deeper down the board? I did, and I
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: took a shot on a real long, dark course and
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: let me start in the A sec. So obviously, if
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: you can win your conference with one loss, you're gonna
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: go to the collegeur ball playoff, unless you're a soft
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: packed ball team. So I'll leave the height against USC
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: aside because they don't play any defense and they return
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: less than on the defensive side of the ball. That
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: may work to win the Big twelve, but you're not
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  Speaker 1: gonna win anything past that. So let me start in
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  Speaker 1: the a sec where they're gonna produce somebody that's gonna
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  Speaker 1: go to the college football Playoff. It's not gonna be Clemson.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: I know Clemson has this high number, and I know
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: everybody wants Clemson to go to the playoff and return
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: to glory. But I think we're starting to realize how
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: important Isaiah Simmons was on defense and how electric Travis E.
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  Speaker 1: T n was. He was everything out of the backfield
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  Speaker 1: catching the ball. Now he's in the NFL and they
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: have never been able to replace him in the backfield.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Fast forward to the spring game and think about d
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: j Uley. He had more interceptions and touchdowns last year.
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  Speaker 1: His decision making has just spiraled downward since that Notre
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  Speaker 1: Dame game during the pandemic. He comes to the spring
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: game this last Saturday, seventeen and thirty six overthrows everybody. Uh,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: not impressive. Now, his big claim it Clemson is that
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: he's gonna lose a bunch of weight this offseason. He's
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: gonna show up to fall camp and be accurate, precise,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: and sinc That's not what we saw in the spring.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: I want nothing to do with Clemson and the team
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: that returns on both sides of the ball, that kept
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: all their coordinators, that is just going to be ferocious
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: and beat Clemson last year. Is NC State. NC State
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: right now I think is sitting out that ad and
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: thirty to one win the national championship. I can't say
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna like pull back the rubber band and throw,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: you know, a bunch of hundred dollar bills one state
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: to win the national championship, but to win the SEC
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: you better bet there's gonna be a few dimes thrown
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: down on the Wolfpack because this team is already beating Clemson.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: They have the confidence. They have everybody back there loaded. Now,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: have you seen any type of line movement in future
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: markets with like the spring practice kicking off and different
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: guys scouting different players is does that make any type
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: of movement so far coming to the season. Well, there
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: was some movement on Clemson. I didn't understand it because
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: DJ Ailey did not look good whatsoever. There was some
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: twelve ones out there. They got chipped down to ten
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: to one from a Heisman perspective. Happily, there's one guy
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: that has not moved and that's the guy who I'm
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: centering on next looking for the best number. But I
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: can tell you that Jackson Smith Najiba is fifty two
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: one out there. And I know my podcast partner over
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: on BBOC, we both salivated over watching this wide receiver
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: from Ohio State dominate the Rose Bowl. This may be
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: the best player in college football. And I think it's
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: important to know it's like this is a quarterback College
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Football Playoff Award now. But DeVonta Smith, you know, happily
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: in the NFL now with the Eagles, He's a wide
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: receiver that during a pandemic with an undefeated team that
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: went on to win the National Championship, won the award
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: as a wide receiver. Jash and Smith and the JIGBA
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: is going to get everything from c. J. Stroud. He's
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: going to make a highlight every week. And now he
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: has a defense, it's gonna get him more possessions. It's
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: gonna give more chances for explosive plays. And so I
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: think the floodgates are going to kind of open up
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: on wide receivers a little bit and realizing that with
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: the r p O it's not always about the quarterback.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: If you have a weapon like this, they can win
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: the Heisman. So fifty two one, you can count me
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: in on a high state's biggest weapon. It's actually sixty one, right, yeah,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: grab it. Spring practice is always an interesting time. How
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: much are you are you paying attention to spring practices?
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Explain like your process and understanding and what that does
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: to influence how you think about handicapping through the rest
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: of the year. A few years ago, Trevor Lawrence came
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: out and was hitting te Higgins on a dime. I said,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Clemson's gonna win the national championship. Guess what? They won,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: the National championship. Down Fields shot on the sideline. Welcome
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: to clubs, Lace, but they wanted because of their defense.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Kelly Bryant was out. It wasn't because the offense, because
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: the defense. A couple of years ago, Justin Fields transfers
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: from Georgia to Ohio State. He goes four or thirteen
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: in the spring game, and then I write up some
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: content for us and said, I'm just not sure. Justin
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Fields is a guy, and Kirby Smart knew what he
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: was doing. That was wrong. So do I take stock
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: in these spring games. Listen, Justin Fields went for for
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: thirteen and then went on to have this amazing season
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: for Ohio State and now he's a quarterback for Chad's
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bears. But I don't put a lot of stock
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: in this. Kids have bad days, it's cold, sometimes there's
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: new schemes, there's new coaches. I don't put a ton
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: of stock. I do put a ton of stock on
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: how often you're on the field, how often you're used.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: And if I see a scheme change, it's been made
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: by a coordinator that wants to utilize a certain aspect
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: of the offense or the defense. So that's where I
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: look more into than just saying Justin Fields before a thirteen.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: He must be terrible on the fact about that national
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: title game with Trevor Lawrence, my mentor Bob, that's his
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: biggest loss of his career. Bet on a game Nick
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Saban versus rookie quarter rookie or freshman quarterback. The should
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: have been free money for Bama. There's a reason, there's
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: a reason these bookmakers know what they're doing. He fell
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: right into that trap of taking Bama against the first
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence, like you just talked about, it
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: was an incredible performance. So here's my question. Though, you're
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: coming down on d j at Clemson because he was
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: seventeen or thirty six and overthrown people, why why do
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: you treat that differently than say other elements of the
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: spring game? Because there was an unknown with Justin Fields.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: He didn't get any playing time. Uh you know, I
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: mean there was Jake From Why was Jake From getting
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: all the playing time over Justin Fields? Justin Fields was
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: high as highly recruited as Trevor Lawrence. So there must
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: be something going on with Georgia and we don't know
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: why Justin Fields is not getting any playing time. Now,
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: when you see d j Ung Galile spend all of
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: last year missing all of his wide receivers, missing all
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: of his targets, overthrows, intercept all on him, it had
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: nothing to do with his stable of targets. It had
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: to do with him. And when he shows up in
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: the spring and those timing issues have have not been resolved,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: and his mobility issues in the pocket have not been resolved,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: there's no I'm fading Clemson as much as I possibly
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: can because these problems with DJ and and if Dabbo
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: is just gonna stick next to him for a full
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: another year, then you're gonna end up with Clemson with three,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: four or five losses. Again, yeah, he's honestly, he's a
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: great athlete. But I think you just touched on it.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Some of the worst footwork I've ever watching a quarterback,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: just watching him play last year, and I didn't watch
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: a spring tape yet, but if he's still overthrowing, guys
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: are only throwing him same thing. He's thrown off his
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: back foot, which he consistently did all of last year.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: He doesn't set his feet. So again, that's one of
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: those things where this kid was a great athlete his
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: whole life, probably what a top five prospect heading to Clemson.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: But he's not improving. He's just relying on his God
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: given abilities. So that is actually really interesting you just
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: said that. That's to me, that's a big negative towards Clemson.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: I like that you're trying to take advantage of faith
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: in them this year. Who else when you're watching spring game?
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: You mentioned NC State Schematically have you seen that piques
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: your interest positively re negatively? Well, I've already put a bet.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: The second win totals were released on the SEC West,
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: I immediately hit Arkansas kind of a homer. Let me
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: back it up. Came out at six and a half
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: a plus money. We're gonna release our projections here this
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: summer and you're gonna have Arkansas about seven point nine.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: But really it's just easy. Arkansas runs the ball and
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: if you can't defend the run, you're gonna get beat.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: There are eight teams on their schedule that cannot defend
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: the run, and Arkansas will just pulverize them. So eight
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: wins is where Arkansas is gonna be. So I would
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: take advantage on over seven and seven a half. Texas
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: A and M is a tough one, I mean tricky.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: The number that I have is eight point nine. Number
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: came out opener on at nine. Everybody wants Texas A
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: and M to make the College Football Playoff. But the
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: problem is, if you're not gonna beat Nick Saban, you're
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: gonna be stuck in that number five slot for the
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: rest of eternity. Jimbo, because the pro style offense doesn't work.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: You don't go five wides. You've got the most amazing
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: talent all of college football, but you won't change your scheme,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: and if I don't see a change in the spring,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: you're not gonna change it this fall. And he has
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: a new defensive coordinator, Mike Elco's now head coach at
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: at Duke. So you know, I could shoot holes in
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: all these teams. I didn't see anything in the spring game.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: USC doesn't play any defense. They return less than Michigan
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: just lost all their offensive coordinators back on defense, Mike
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: McDonald went back to the Ravens. He was their defensive
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: coordinator and the reason why Michigan so good on defense
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: because he brought in a whole new scheme and all
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, they're tackling, they're blitzing, havoc everywhere. He's gone.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: I think Michigan is another team you can fade this
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: year thirty to one. You couldn't for I wouldn't buy
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: a ticket on them. And then Notre Dame. Like I understand,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Brian Kelly left and Tommy Grees the offensive coordinator State,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: but he's one of the most conservative offensive play callers,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: and now Brian Kelly isn't there to mentor him, and
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: new head coach Marcus Freeman only cares about defense. I
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: don't know how this team is thirty five to one.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: They their second order win total, which is a pathag
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: way of saying they really overachieved last year, says that
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: they're going to struggle this year in a really brutal schedule.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: So there are some dark horses out there. There are
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: two known teams Alabama, Ohio State, and there's two others.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Michigan and Cincinnati were first time college football playoff teams
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: last year. There's gonna be two new ones this year. Also,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: I like how you you used an obscure analytics abbreviation
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: to describe and obscure analytic stat I'm not I'm in
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: mid season four and it's aprils. You really are like
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: you are. You have gone deep into the rabbit hole
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: and listen. This is how committed you are to betting.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I know how much golf you're betting and researching. I
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: know how much college baseball, I know how much Major
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: League Baseball. The fact you've got all this in there,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: you are a true professional. I was working on these
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: numbers at the end of the National Championship Game, and
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: college football is always going to be king in the
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: heart as much as I bet everything else. And as
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: much as I love my Hogs, the you know, the
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: college football rules everything in this house. Real quick, I
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: got one more. I gotta asked Colm about Heisman? Am
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: I crazy for Benonis? I got him an eight to
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: one right now? In Fandel, I've seen the talent. Know
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: it was always only at the home games where he
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: would actually be good. We've seen the talent though. I
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: really do think this kid look is pretty legit. New
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: scenior is like, am I crazier? Eight one on bo?
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's pretty pretty big number for a
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: guy that again we've seen him flash elite talent. I'm
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: not gonna call you crazy, but I will say that
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: that's probably a bet you can burn because first off,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: look out how many Higsman winners came, uh you know
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: how how many of them came west of the Mississippi River.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: Not a lot of them. And it goes back to
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: the voting base. And the voting base is so East
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Coast based, so Big ten based, so sec based, that
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: the pack Fell players don't get a lot of love
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: because they play so late at night. Now, remember the
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: new organ head coach is a defensive coordinator from Georgia.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: By the way, that's a Week one game that's gonna
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: be one of the most exciting games Georgia oregan, especially
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: considering the defensive coordinators. Now head coach of Oregon wins
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: that game, Yeah, yeah, he'll drop big time. But at
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: the same time, he still got a deal with Bryce
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Young and c J. Stroud. I mean, is a two
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: headed monster in the Heisman market that's never going away.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Bow Knicks transferring. If Matt Mitchell doesn't do a bo
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: nixt season in full effect, drop on this podcast, but
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: nixt season in full effects. For those who have listened
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: to Action Network podcasts from the beginning, bone Knicks had
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: been at Auburn a constant presence in every single college
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: football podcast because of his sort of up and down talent. Colin,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: I'm a little bit, a little bit sort of misty
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: eyed not having bone Nicks at Auburn this year. I
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: had no clue years ago the Boone Nicks would generate
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: the kind of hate on the voicemails. Just by saying anything,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: you can even compliment them, you're gonna get phone calls.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: And I don't know if those Auburn people are still around.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: I think they're hiding under a tree. What's going on
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: with Brian Harson? Uh, if you want to do some research,
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: find out what's going on off the field down there.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: It not pretty. So we'll see if Auburn fans will
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: be chirping or if those really were bo Nicks fanboys.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know what they were, but it really struck
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: a chord with a lot of betters. Anytime the word
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: bo Nix has said, I think about the very early
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: days of action. It's like a total trigger from season
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• 22:02
  Speaker 1: you talked about Ohio State, you talked about Alabama. There's
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: two spots open, Georgia next shortest odds to win the
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: national title. Then who are we talking about? Who are
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: those two final spots? And the problem chat is is
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: that I can shoot holes through everybody. Oh you being
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: coached by Brent Venables, who's playing quarterback? And who's coaching
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: that quarterback? Uh USC doesn't play defense, and they're packed twelve. Michigan.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: We talked about how they've cleaned house. You look at
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: the board, it falls off sharply after Alabama and Ohio State,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: and you're really looking for those two other pieces. And
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: I've already told you I'm fading Clemson. So if you
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: want me to throw in two names in there, I'll
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: take NC State to win the a c C with
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: one loss. Come on, listen. I came on this show,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: I think three years ago, and I told you you
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: was gonna make the college Football Playoff, and those guys
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: lost in the fourth quarter to organ that Pactrol Champions
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: are gonna so close to pulling that off, calling that
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: so early, So I'll say NC State it's gonna win
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: the a c C. And then if I had to
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: go with a fourth spot. Boy. Part of me really
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: wants to talk about how good L s U is,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: partly really wants to talk about there. I think a
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: team from the West can lose one game and make
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. And I don't think it's gonna be Georgia.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: There's just too much turnover going on on defense. But
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: L s U has a ton of talent now they
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: have the coach, Brian Kelly will win a Nastal championship
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: at L s U. I don't think it's gonna be
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: this year. There's just too many transfers, new coordinating, new
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: schemes on both sides of the ball. Brian Kelly will
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: win an actual championship there. I'm just not sure if
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be this year. But a one lost team
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: from the SEC will fill that role. Now, I don't
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be Georgia. Could be somebody from the West,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: and that team could be a m I don't think
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: so could be L s U. Probably not this year,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: but I'll go with second SEC team and I'll allow
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: everybody else to kind of pick who that is. I mean,
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson still in Florida. Although I do not discuss
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: the head coach of that name. I am banned from
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: saying his name on podcast because of how much money
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: I've lost in Louisiana. Goodness, gracious, Billy Napier, scared money,
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: don't make money, you know. I will say a one
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: lost SEC team is going to take that fort slot.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: L is currently seventy to one in the national title. Yeah,
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: Myles Brennan and Jade and Jane Daniels. I mean there,
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: they are loaded at every single position. That defensive line
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: is bigger than a row of condominiums. I mean I
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: I they they are absurdly talented. They've put so many
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: corners into the NFL. They just keep reloading true freshman. Uh.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: It's not an easy out for anybody. And now they're
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: going to be well coached. Right. We've moved on from
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: raw rock coach oh to a guy that actually would
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: win in that who took Notre Dame with their restrictions
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: and recruiting and academics, has gone to the National Championship
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: a couple of years and the College Football Playoff. Brian
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: Kelly can coach. I don't care about his Southern accent.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I'm a little offended as a guy that's from Arkansas.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: But he is going to get l s U to
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: the National Championship game in his stint there, so I'm
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: never counting them out. I'm not going to fade him.
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: But you barely have a Southern accent. But when I
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: talked to my grandma, it starts coming out real quick.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: That sounded like a fake Southern accent. Should That sounded terrible? Um?
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: All right, So then I would say, I'm putting words
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: in your mouth, words of a Northerner in your mouth.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: At the final four for college football college football playoff, Alabama,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: Ohio State, NC State, and ls U. You heard it
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: here first, that's it. A lot of state schools, yes, yeah,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: No Clemson, No Clemson, No Clemson. You're skipping over the
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: schools that are between Alabama and Ohio State. You're skipping
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: over Clemson, A and M, which is a perpetual you know,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: recruiting war winner, USC, Oklahoma, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin. Those are
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: all the schools between l s U and Ohio State
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: in the future's eyes. Yeah yeah, And I love Wisconsin
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: and I love the transfers they brought in, But schedules
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: too tough. Ohio State is still king, and a one
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: loss Big twelve, Big ten team is not gonna make
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: it in. They don't get the street cred that SEC does.
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna get a one loss at large in Inviously,
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: it's already try to do that. They can't do it.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: So SEC is the only one partner to do that.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: It's impossible for anyone to listen to this podcast and
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: not say there unprepared for the college football season. Colin,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: You've done your work. Everybody go bad. Arkansas over bet
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: Arkansas over bet l s U to win the national
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: title as seven one. Listen to podcast to Colin on
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: the Gimme every week. Listen to Colin and Stucky on
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: our best podcast at the Action Network Big Bets on
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Campus b BOC. Listen to me and Simon Hunter, my
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: partner twice a week here in the Volume Podcast Network.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Thank you to Colin, Thank you to Simon, Thank you
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: to producer Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Milman. Until next time,
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: download ray Review, subscribe, say whatever you want, just give
• 27:02
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• 27:07
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