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NFL Divisional Playoffs Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Nolman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: It is Thursday. We've got a lot to discussed as
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: we get into divisional playoffs. We're going to go through
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: sharp calls. We're going to go through what we hope
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: will be a big balls better the week. We're going
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: to nail down what we think the best bets are
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: is we've evolved from Tuesday to Thursday with market news
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: and conditions and lines changing and etcetera, etcetera. My bff,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: my companion, Mike and Padre professional better Simon Hunter Simon.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Before we get to any of that, we do have
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: literally some late breaking overnight betting news. This is how
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: it happens. This is the world you live in. This
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: is how it goes down for someone like you. Talk
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: to me. Yeah, Buddy, woke up to a bunch of miscalls,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: which is never a good thing, but sometimes it is.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: It's usually COVID related. But like we joked on the playoffs,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: COVID disappeared. Cofort doesn't exist, So immediately I saw a
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: bunch of miscalls. My mind went to the worst. Called
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: back this other guy who I worked with, and he
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: started talking about this NC State offensive lineman. He came
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: in Kwanu for the number one overall pick. Right now
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: is gone from hundred to one to six to one.
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  Speaker 1: Articles are coming out now right mock drafts are being posted.
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  Speaker 1: So apparently Athletic well trusted Mock Draft group online reporters
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  Speaker 1: put out their first mock and in this mock they
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: had Kwandu as number one overall pick. He was at
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: a hundred of one when this article was posted, right
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  Speaker 1: it is since in the last twenty four hours moved
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: to six to one. So when I got woke up
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: this morning, it was about from other professionals calling me
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: saying out what was at midnight one am, Vegas time,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: that they're betting this number on this NFL draft again.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: People are going crazy about the draft right now. It's
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: really professionals betting in the draft. It's January. The public
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: doesn't care about the draft. The public is onto the playoffs.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: That's why this line moving such a big deal. Moving
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: it from a hundred oh one to six to one
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: in a twenty four hour period. I honestly, I can't
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: remember another time I've seen a sports book do that
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: kind of thing. It's it's crazy they are that off
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: on these opening lines. So Chad, you know, if we
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: hear a story like this, this is a big deal.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: So it's it's really exciting right now when this morning
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: just everyone's going crazy trying to figure out what these
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: people know. Are the Jags leaking information? Is it? I
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  Speaker 1: guarantee that he would be the number one pick now
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: because that's I'm seeing some books he's at three to
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  Speaker 1: one right now. That that's pretty insane movement. That is
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  Speaker 1: massive movement in the span of twenty four hours from
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  Speaker 1: a hundred to one to three to one. I don't
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  Speaker 1: even know. That sounds almost entirely unprecedented. Wheels are turner
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  Speaker 1: in out, So I can't even think of many got
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: top of my head, but it's it's pretty shocking. Like
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  Speaker 1: the last crazy number one pick I could think of
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  Speaker 1: was Baker. I remember Baker, he opened up and maybe
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  Speaker 1: thirty five thirty one to be the number one pick
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  Speaker 1: like that was pretty crazy. And by the time the
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: draft got closer, and Sam Donald started dropping and Josh
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  Speaker 1: Allen started dropping down all of a sudden, Baker ended
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  Speaker 1: up being the one pick. But people don't really know
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  Speaker 1: that until three days before. This is crazy movement. A
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: hundred one to three to one. That's they're not moving
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  Speaker 1: at just because it's some random guy walking off the strip.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: They're moving that off real good information. So that's uh,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: that's a pretty exciting story right now. Look, it's January.
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  Speaker 1: Like you said, the draft isn't for a few months.
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  Speaker 1: There's gonna be a lot of movement in this overall.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: For the record, we can remember to cut the clip.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: It was Chad Mellman who said there would not be
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: a quarterback taken in the top ten. I stand by it.
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  Speaker 1: In all the mock drafts that have come out, we've
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: continued to see that. My milk Hyper came out with
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: his mock draft, his first mock yesterday. He expected the
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  Speaker 1: first quarterback taking to be I think thirteen. It was
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: the kid from Liberty. Simon and Matt Mitchell. You are
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: both against me on that. But huge news, huge news
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  Speaker 1: about movement. Uh in the NFL draft odds hundred one,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: the three to one for North Carolina State offensive Linemen Kim.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: People asked why I go to beds early? That's why
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: it's like my days start at weird times, just because
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Vegas doesn't sleep like a lot of these pros. They're
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: making moves at midnight, one, two in the morning. What
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: can I do? That's four or five am R time.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: So I go to bed at nine o'clock. Not because
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: I'm an old man. I'm just I'm tired. Man, I've
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: been up all day. I go to bed at nine o'clock.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Just because I go to bed at nine o'clock. We're
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: gonna live forever. No, You're gonna live forever, Chad. That
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: I'm trying. That's my goal. Me. I'm going on the
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: theory that I'm not scared to death, and I'm gonna
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: eat what I'm gonna eat this morning. What I have.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: I had some bacon, had some cheerios. I'm a bouncing act.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Maybe an apple later. Who knows, Chad, But you you're
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: gonna live to be all right? Well, let's get to it. Look,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: divisional playoffs, it's the best sports weekend that there is,
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: like the it's it's great competition. The games are gonna
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  Speaker 1: be amazing. I always love it because the best week.
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  Speaker 1: It's one of the best weekends of the year for
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Action Network. We've talked about we've gone through all the games,
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: let's talk about your sharp calls to start. Hello, who's there?
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: I'm talking yeah, sharp calls. I think last week we
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: we kind of narrowed down to just one game, and
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: again I trusted my gut. I went against a lot
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: of professionals who I do trust, but playoffs, I talk
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: a lot of time it's about trusting your gut. Just
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: take all information you're getting given. It's the same thing
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  Speaker 1: I do with these sharp calls. So this week, no
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: surprise the professionals. They love the Buccaneers, and I really,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: really really liked the Rams. I said that like coming
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: into it, I wanted more time to see what was
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: going on the injuries with this Buccaneers team. Yeah, we're
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: gonna break down that whole game, but just so people
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: know where the pros heads are at. They love the Bucks.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: They're coming in really big on the bills. I can
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: think of five legit groups that have come in heavy
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  Speaker 1: on the spills money line, and they're gonna keep taking
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: it until they moved down to a pick. They're not
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  Speaker 1: taking the number, like they haven't been taking the two
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  Speaker 1: and a half. They haven't been taking the two, they've
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: been taking the money line. They just believe in this
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Bills team. So that that started to explain more why
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: so much of that money was coming on the Bills.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: I didn't really get. I thought that was public money. No,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: it's not like I've tuk to a bunch of runners
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: in the stadier of Jersey. They've just been betting that
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Bills money line. It's shocking. I am honestly like, again,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: we're gonna go through that game. I was shocked by that,
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  Speaker 1: just because I just can't imagine going against my homes
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  Speaker 1: at home here. I get they have a read and
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: they have a system just like I do. Um, but
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: luckily I'm just sometimes I do fade my system. I'm
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: not here. I'm still gonna rib the Chiefs again. We'll
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: break that one down. Another one that just found really
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: interesting was, um, you know, people like doing totals. I
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: talked to a lot of pros that like the under
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: and the Cincinnati Tennessee game. Uh, they're looking at a
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  Speaker 1: team that they believe Tennessee is gonna ball control. The
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  Speaker 1: same reason. We like Tennessee, and a lot of the
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  Speaker 1: guys I talked to they just think that last week
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: them going against the Raiders again, Joe Burrows looked great.
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  Speaker 1: They thought that was more about the Raiders defense just
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: not being that good to being exhausted. When now you're
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: going against the rest of Tennessee defense, a much better
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  Speaker 1: front four. That's gonna bring a lot more pressure on
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  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. I can see why they like the under.
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  Speaker 1: It makes sense. And now I'm checking it looking splits
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: on the action app. Money and tickets are coming in
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: towards the over. The line is not really moving, so
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: obviously the professionals have come in. They've held that number
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: where it's at, so you can wait on that one.
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  Speaker 1: I feel like the public will keep coming in. Maybe
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: you'll get a nice little bump before the game kicks off.
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  Speaker 1: But that that's one of those I'm gonna have to
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: be on the under that Tennessee game. Also like Tennessee.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: It's rare for me to take a favorite in it under,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: but Tennessee style running the ball, controlling the clock, that
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: kind of skews towards the under and a win for
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: that team. This is a stat from Stucky in the
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Action Network podcast which came out this morning downloaded. It's
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: fantastic totals in the divisional round since two thousand three,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: when the total is between forty seven and fifty five
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: and a half, which is where all these totals are
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: this week, Unders have gone fifty seven percent since two
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: thousand three when the games are played outdoors, meaning all
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: of these games, because they're all being played outdoors, the
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Unders thirty seven, twenty and two. And we're gonna go
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: game by game right now, but I will say that
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: the other day, my first instinct on the Chiefs and
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: the Bills was it was at fifty four and a half.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: My first instinct was on the under. You like the over,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: but this to me feels like a game where it's
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: over inflated because of the caliber of the offenses, and
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs, especially at home, tend to score low score
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: They're trying to be more to low scoring games, and
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: this is the kind of game where you could see
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: a lot of long drives and that doesn't lead itself
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: to lend itself to a big, big number. Yeah, I
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: think Stucky was when I said it too, that it's
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: totals above fifty four and the playoffs are eight and
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: one towards the under. The only over that's ever gone
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: over is the Bills versus the Chiefs. Uh, it's by
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: you saying you're on the under. Everyone's gonna be joining you.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Like I know, playing professional is gonna be on that under.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: That's just way too high for this playoffs. I'm just
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: on small for the over just because of what I
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: just said. I just believe both these offenses are that great.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Like both again, the o C for the Bills, you
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: could argue he's gonna be one of the hottest candidates
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: to be a head coach this offseason, and he just
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: trust Josh Allen like you've rarely ever seen an all
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: seed like well, again, they've had games here, Matt Mitchell
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: contest to it. They just don't even run the ball.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: They blood Josh Allen simply passed the entire game. So
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: the reason I just like the over is because both
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: these guys they're like that skip for Monty Python. You
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: can cut their arms off, they're gonna still be hopping
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: around trying to fight. Yeah, exactly, It's like Josh youn
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Ca have both his legs cut off and he's still
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: gonna be thrown and trucking even if he's down fifty
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: points in the fourth quarter. It's like, I just look
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: at both these offenses never quitting. So I'm with you.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: That's a fair bed pick you under in this matchup.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I am the other. Again, We'll touch other
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: three games. This is the only one I'm really on
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: the over four. All right, let's do it. Let's do it.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about Tennessee and since an eddie out of
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: the gate first game, we loved Tennessee at minus three
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: and a half. Nothing I have heard or seen since
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: then makes me disagree with that. I think coming into
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: this game, the Joe Burrows are a little bit inflated
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: because of what they did this past week. It's a
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: about of the money, meaning the professionals are coming in
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: on the Titans even at the three and a half.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be healthy with all twenty two of their
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: projected starters playing, Derrick Henry back, a j Brown back,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: and healthy Julio Jones expected to play a high percentage
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: of snaps. Mike Vrabel eight No when he has more
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: than nine days to prepare, You and I both know
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: he's a great coach Coach of the Year. Nothing walks
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: me away from this bet. Nope. And I was gonna say,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised you didn't talk about video Derrick Henry coming
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: out there. The people post the video of Derrick Henry
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: this past week practicing Holy Ship did he look angry
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: and practice like he just was bulldozed And his own
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: teammates told him the pads Like you've heard all the
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: rumors coming out. They want to get him twenty to
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: twenty five touches in this game. That's this is like,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: this is the secret weapon Tennessee. This is why we
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: like them so much. People just remember what have you
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: done for me lately? Like like they're not thinking about
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Derrick Henry going out this season. He was at m
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: v P levels, Like he was literally putting at m
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: VP level when he got hurt fresh legs, Derrick Henry
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: man by that by the time it hits that fourth quarter,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: this that's just gonna be since these is gonna be
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: done and that's when Derrick Henry kind of shine. So
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: nothing changed for me either, Chad. I talked to a
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: couple of different bookmakers. They're getting slammed with Bengals moneyline money.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: If you can look at on the action appict really skewed.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: I believe it's over six the money. Six of the
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: bets right now is on the money line for the Bengals.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: No surprised people think they're alive. Dog that the teaser numbers.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: He's even more excued. It's like over eight percent of
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: all teasers right now or towards this Bengals team. It's
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: it's no surprise. It's just the Tennessee hasn't been a
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: public team this year. Again, Rabel, we talked about it.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: They were the one seed in the FC. They be
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: you know, the Chiefs. They beat the Bills, they beat
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: some of the best teams in that division with Ryan
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Tannehill as their quarterback, and he wasn't me talked about
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: coach of the year, like people kept talking about the
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: floor with Aaron Rodgers, who's the MVP of the league.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: It's like, what are we doing here? That's why I
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: just think this, this Tennessee team is just disrespected. It's
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: one of these games where I think Bybel's gonna be
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: playing that card to them, like no one really believes
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: in us. Sure we're the favorite, but do people really
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: like believe in US as a team, people are just
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: talking about the Chiefs and the Bills, like wherever win's
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: that game is gonnahen the FC people are just sleeping
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: on the Tennessee team. So you're right, You're right there, Chad,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Like I gotta take this number. I gotta take Tennessee.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: As long as stays under four, you're getting a great number.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Even if it hits four, I still think that's a
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: good number for this Tennessee side and the under like
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: we talked about, I just I like Tennessee the ball
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: control this game. Again, I'm made story about Cincinnati. It
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: feels like they are a year or two away from
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: playing an f C championship games, so they gotta pay
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: their dues. So this is one of those games where
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: if since he was at home, I maybe think about
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: them in the upset, but the fact they're on the road,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: like Chad just said, after such an emotional big win,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: their their coach going around giving game balls out all
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: those bars, Like I can't get over how cool of
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: the story that is. But I just felt like that
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: was their super Bowl. So we we usually win in
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: these spots, like last week with the Raiders. We favor
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: the Raiders off that huge emotional win against the Chargers.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: It worked out for us. Maybe we got a couple
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: of calls go our away, we got a little lucky,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: But those are the kind of situations that's why you
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: play with those kind of numbers. And again with the
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Tennessee team, I think we're getting good number. Reminder that
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: the Titans minus three and a half are my Scooch
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Roulette pick, and I'm saying it now because we're going
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: to transition into the Chiefs and the Bills a little
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: bit more deeply. And your Scooch Roulette pick was the
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Chiefs minus two. And everything I've heard about who's back
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: for the Titans is, you know, the Derrick Henry video
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: label off of a lot of time to prepare this,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: the Bengals sort of getting some some public attention being
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: the public um darling. And then on the other side,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: the Bills being very much the wise guy favorite here,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: everybody loving the Bills, people talking about having the Bills
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: power raided as their best team in the NFL. It's
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: a prose Joe's game like this is the only real
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: pros Joe's game on the board where bats are coming
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: in on the Chiefs. Money is coming in on the Bills.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: The line has moved up and down a little bit.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: It did get down to one and a half Simon.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: You say, a lot of professional money coming in on
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: the Bills on the money line. All that said, I
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: still love the Chiefs here. That's what. Like I joke
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: with people a time about trusting your gun in these moments,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: it's like, I'm not gonna lie. A couple of the
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: pros I talked to, they're they're better than me. They
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: they've won longer, they've been around the books a lot longer.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: When they're started breaking me down either on the Bills,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: it's it's all sound, it all makes sense. But I
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: keep saying to them, like, you're you're really gonna bet
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: against my homes and Arrowhead, Like we're really gonna bet
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: on the Bills to beat them twice in one year.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: It's that's a lot to ask of Josh Allen. Josh
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Owen's gonna be paying back his demons of having a
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: letdown multiple times this past season, like that Jags game
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: that cost him a one seed. There there's little moments
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: for this past season the Bills cost themselves, and I
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna come to the forefront of this matchup again.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: We saw it last week. Every home team won and
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: covered except the Forts, who went on the road and
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: beat Dallas. It's just hard to win on the road
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs. Again. Last year, people were like, oh, look,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: how great the road teams are doing. There's no fucking fans,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Like that's a big deal. There's no fans in the stadium.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: It was literally quiet and pumped in music. We've seen
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: it this year flip back to what it usually is,
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: where it's home teams have an advantage because of that,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: that crowd noise. It really makes it hard to communicate.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: And Josh Allen, we saw it last week. He loves
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: to talk to the line. That's why he's such a
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: great commander. He's moving, guys, He's doing different things like that.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: I'm wearing right there with each other. I still think
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: we're getting a great number in this matchup, and just
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: looking at the numbers, I think it's moving honestly, because
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: we talked about how many pros are coming on the
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: money online and the public. This is their number again.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: This is we'll see what the teasers number are comes Sunday.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: This is number one Teas team. Right now, you're able
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: to tease them update and a half, seven and a half.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: We talk all the time, key number, How those are
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: such key numbers, no surprise, So I'll take the value
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: on this Chiefs team. I'm I'm honestly, I'm excited to
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: see what kind of matchup this will end up being,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: because it's just giving me these bad vibes of this
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Bills team literally is coming off again a perfect game
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: just to complete letdown on this spot like stuck, he
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: talked about it, the stath that you're referring to. There
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: is a pretty good system and precedent where teams that
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: blow teams out the week before and win by four
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: touchdowns are more the key was covered covered by twenty
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: eight or more. Right, Yeah, cover tend to not cover
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: the llowing week. They're less than belee against the spread
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: the following weeks. Like it's it's little things like that
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: where teams have these crazy offensive explosions in the following
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: week they kind of have a letdown because again, it's
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: a lot easier beating up on Mac Jones than it
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: is Mahomes on the road. So I get why you
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: say it's a lot of professional money, like I've talked
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: to pros were coming on the Bills. It's gonna be
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of public too though, just like off that
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: that fact alone where it's the Bills team, they're the
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: best team last week, no doubt, Like that was historical
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: what we saw. So that's why people like you know
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: that I like to shift to people that make bets
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. I don't really do because I can see
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: why people are on the Bills, like arguably the most
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: complete offense, most complete defense in the playoffs. It's just
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: a Mahomes factor. I can't stress enough how special of
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: this kid is and when he's getting overlooked like he
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: is in this game, when all the money's coming on
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: the Bills, this is when you want to back my Homes.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: So I do think we're getting a really good number
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: of your chet. I love it unconditionally, like I love
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. I'm gonna bring you in here as the
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: resident king of Western New York who's worn a Bills poncho,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: sweater or jacket every day since the Bills one. We
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: do have some follow ups. The other day, you talked
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: about how you wore gloves, surgical gloves while you ate
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: your wings. People have questions about that. They also wanted
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: follow ups on, uh, the ice cream you've bought from
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: your neighbors, which is a tradition. Can you fill people
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: in on both? How did you get the gloves? Did
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: you sort of put them under a bills poncho after
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: your daughter's birth? What was the story there? Yeah? First
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: things first, for anyone that is childless in our listenership,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: when you go to the hospital to have a baby,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: first there's a delivery room, which is usually not a
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: terribly impressive room, and then there's a postpartum suite you
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: are taken to after the baby is born. In that
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: polstpartum suite, every single thing in that room that's disposable
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: has to be disposed of after you check out whether
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: or not you touched it. So for the birth of
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: each of children, I stripped that room clean. A lot
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: of that stuff comes in very handy, so I took
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: all of the gloves, all of the absorbent pads, anything
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: that could could come in handy. Like a real Western
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: New York scumbag, put him in a giant devil bag,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: walked it right out of there, like I was robbed
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: at a bank um and all that stuff has come
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: in handy for both medical reasons and wing eating reasons.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: Recommend to anybody that is welcoming the birth of a
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: child to remember this when you when you're having your
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: hospital experience. And yes, we we didn't touch on the
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: ice cream thing. When I moved into my neighborhood here
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: in Milwaukee, I let all the neighbors know. Listen when
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: the Bills went a playoff game, because at the time
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: they hadn't won in in like twenty years. If the
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Bills went a playoff game, I will buy each and
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: every one of you a point of Ben and Jerry's.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: You just let me know what you want, my son
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: and I will go to the store, will pick it up,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: and then we'll drop the point off to each of you.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Was really a hearts and minds campaign to try to
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: brainwash a lot of Packer fans into being Bill supporters
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: as well. And last week people want to get their
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: orders in, but they were being very cautious, didn't want
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: to count their chickens before they've hatched. But right around
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: halftime the tech start coming in. Chunky Monkey, American Dream,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: half Baked second half, the blowouts on Bills are definitely
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: gonna win. You know, fish food, some vanilla's in there.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: And I told him, you know, every eligible family, go
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: ahead and let me know and we'll drop it up throow.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: And I say eligible because obviously not every family can
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: get it. For example, my neighbor Ben, he's a Patriots fan.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: He could need to pile a dogship for all I care.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: He did not get one. So it was really fun.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: It's been a it's been a fun tradition. I put
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: on the Bills poncho and I dropped him off at
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: each house. Everyone's very, very excited for our potential Bills
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: win this weekend. And the final note about that Bill's
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: game experience last week was I have a buddy Joey,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: who I go way back with. Bill spent huge Bills fan,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: Western New York. I grew up in Maine. He and
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: I text through the entirety of every Bill's game always,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: and this game I've texting him and like nothing, texting
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: him nothing. It's like, I hope Joey's okay, hope I
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: can't die of alcohol poisoning. Before the game, and at
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: halftime he goes, well, funny thing happened, and he sends
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: to me a picture and his his wife delivered their
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: first baby at kickoff, and that's why he was a
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: little bit busy. He said, you know, our first son
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: is born just as the prophecy foretold. So I think
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: that kind of baby momentum, that's what's giving me a
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: lot of a lot of belief that the Bills can
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: keep this, keep this going. Here, the moon and the
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: tides and the children in the ice cream, everything is
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: kind of aligning. So, yeah, it's been a it's been
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: a fun time. Here's to Joey. I hope he's still
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: a box of surgical bluffs. Yeah, the Joey I know
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: probably rented a truck and helped himself to a couple
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: of hospital beds too. And the hospital was in Boston,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: I will note, so I don't think he made a
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: lot of friends in the birthing and postpartum experience. This
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: is the game lines are being drawn. It's really hard
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: to bet against the two time defending a f C
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: champions at home with a generationally great quarterback when they
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: are less than a field goal favorite. Think about that,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: Thinking about that for a second, less than a field
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: goal favorite for Patrick Mahomes at home, I know what
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: everyone's saying about this Bill's team offensively one of the best,
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: defensively one of the best. It is their time sign
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: that I thought you made an incredible point. The Bill's
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: inability to close out certain teams and be as consistently
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: great early in the year, this is when it potentially
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: cost them and that Jack's game. That is it right there.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: This is what Divisional playoff weekend is about. This game
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Chiefs short home favorites against the Bills, and why the
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: NFL is just the best. Like we went from getting
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: Brady and Peyton, Manny and every a f C you know,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: to decide the AFC championship kind of games too. Now
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: we have josh Allen Mahomes for the next ten fifty years.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: It's the NFL just reloads up on these dynamic all
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: star quarterbacks. And it's like, that's why again, if the
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Bills win, it's gonna hurt me because I'm a loose
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: some money. I'll be happy because I like josh On
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: a lot, love Bills fans obviously love Matt Mitchell. It's
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: it's just a great story that this this Bills teammate,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: the team that choked four straight Super Bowls. This team
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: if they get if they get over this demon, this
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: hump of this Chiefs team that keeps taking them down.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, how can we not again? We'll deal the
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: next week, but this is might be a team of
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: destiny and this Bills team if they can pull off
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: the upset in my heart every time I talk about it,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: I really want the Bills to win me too. This
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: game is down to one and a half. By the way,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: just don't forget the sharp money. The smart money is
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: on the under in that game total. I am on
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: the over, but they're really smart. Professional money is on
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: the under. It's on. It's on the under fifty four
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: and a half. The NFL playoffs are in full gear
• 24:59
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• 27:25
  Speaker 1: You're telling me that everybody is coming on the box professionally,
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: and it doesn't make any sense to me. I did
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: bet the Rams at plus three early this morning. The
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: line is down to two and a half now, and
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: so you're telling me a lot of money coming out
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: on the box, which surprises me given the movement of
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: the line, Given this was a game we talked about
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: the other day on Tuesday, people were gonna wait to
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: see what was going on with the injuries on the
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: offensive line. Yesterday Tristan Worths and Ryan Jensen did not practice.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: Doesn't mean they won't play, but they could barely protect
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady against the Eagles, who don't have a very
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: good pass rush, Von Miller and Aaron Donald and a
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: defensive secondary even with Eric Eric Weddell. It's a much
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: better defense against a really banged up offense. Yeah, and again,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: I think the professional money is, who the hell is
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: Stafford to be catching less than three or three Brady?
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: And that's what I said to them. I said, listen,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: I get it. That's a fair, fair excuse. But when
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: I'm when I'm looking at the numbers, like you just
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: talk the offensive line. He basically Bruce Arian said, these
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: guys are in practice no matter what till Friday. So
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: when I'm when I'm reading the cliff notes and reading
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: about what the reporters are saying for the Buccaneers, it
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: feels like that center is gonna play. The center will
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: be back healthy. The left hack like Kristen again, he's
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: all pro. He's gonna be out like, I really don't
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: think he's gonna play. He's really yeah, in a walking
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: boot all week. It's Thursday. This man weighs over three
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: hundred pounds, Like if he needs a walking boot to
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: get around, I don't know if that ankle is gonna
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: hold up again, he tried coming back in the game,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: wouldn't had the adrenaline and have gotten a shot, And
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: he couldn't do it, Like he could not put like
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: put weight onto that ankle. So I do think the
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: center way back. But that's a big deal of that
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: guy being out on the left side. So you just
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: talked on a chat. I mean we're gonna be sitting
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: here on Tuesday. I'm gonna feel like a freaking idiot
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: taking this Rams team against Brady. Like it's it's that simple.
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: But I can't. I have to take the better team
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: in this position. I just like the Rams. I feel
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: like they're they've earned it to me that this line
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: should be closer towards a pick. The value was trying
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: to shift towards Brady. Like if this number gets too
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: by my system account, like that's where the value is.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: It's on the Brady. It's on taking Brady. But I'm
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: on the Rams. I just like the Rams. I'm split
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: this week. I'm on two favorites, two dogs. It's one
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: of the dogs. I like. If you can't get the
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: three anymore with this Tramps team, like Chad said, just
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: take the moneyline, like you're you're betting them at such
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: a short number like this, you just take the money
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: line in this position. So Stafford with Cooper Cup, Odell Beckham,
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: who looked great last week, this is his game. Like this,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: This secondary of the Buccaneers team, they are terrible. They're
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: down to fifth and six string starters on the cornerbacks
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: right now. So you have to arguably the best receiver
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: that we've ever seen play football in Cooper Cup and
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: you know flashes of brilliance from Odell Beckham. Stafford, you
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: gotta do it this week. You're not gonna have Sony
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: Michelle running over this team like you're not winning like
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: you were against the Cardinals. They're We're gonna need Stafford
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: to step up and win us this game. So it's scary, Chad,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: but I'm doing it. But I believe in this Rams tea.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: I'm taking that number. It's also scary when you do
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: this look we we. I like the Titans, I like
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs, I like the Rams. You know, it's not
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: going to be another weekend where it's sort of predominantly favorites,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: and so it's just scary to think, are we on
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: every wrong side? Like he's gonna be the Bengals and
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: the Bucks and the Bills, and then we haven't talked
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: about the Packers and the rent and the Niners yet.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: But I like the Rams here too. I bet, I
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: bet the Rams. I'll put it in the Action Network app. Man,
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: Like you could argue every week you need the bounces
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: to go your way. This is the like all these
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: teams are so close. Again, the actually never keeps tweeting out.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: This is the shortest lines all combined ever since what
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: n like this is. This is one of the best
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: division rounds we've had in a long time. Just max
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: competitive edges on both teams. So you're you're dead on chat,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: like we're gonna need bounces to go our way to
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: for us to win and cover these numbers like four
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: no this week. That's just pure luck. Like I could
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: act like I have all the school in the world. Now,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: that's pure luck. If you're going to four and all
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: this week because all these teams match up so well
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: with one another. The stat that you're referring to is
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: this weekend, the combined total for the point spreads in
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: all four games is below fourteen, which is the first
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: time that's happened. I love the under. I know a
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: bunch of professionals. They really like the under in this
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: matchup between the Rams, and we've seen what this Rams
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: defense can do, like shut down that Cardinals team like
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: it was nothing last week. Obviously they're not gonna do
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: that against Tom Brady. But with Matthew Stafford, shakiness and
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady go up against I'm much better defense and
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: that Eagles team again, I don't think you're being a
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: lot of short fields against this Rams team. Uh, hopefully
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: with Stafford. So I like them. I'm with the pros
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: on that right now, sitting at forty and a half
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: forty nine, I take this down to forty seven, So
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: that's like, that's a good number taking that under. All right,
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: last game on the board, San Francisco forty Niners visiting
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers. The Niners are six point underdogs. Uh,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: you would alluded to the other day conversations that are
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: happening about Jimmy G's health. There hasn't been anything official
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: that's come out, but there's still continues to be a
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: lot of chatter about how healthy he is, not to
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: the point that Trey Lance is gonna play just sort
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: of his ability to execute um, which is making me
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: very anxious about betting the Niners a plus six. I'll
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: read to me to clip out you practice yesterday, Jimmy
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: have looked like a really good zip on the ball. Again,
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: It's hard to say because who knows what his injury is,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: but the rumors are like that even I've seen even
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: their being waters right about it. It's a shoulder. It's
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: just throwing shoulder that he got all will banged up on.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: Didn't look like much stuff. Again in that practice, he
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: had good zip on the ball. Wasn't throwing it at
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: guy's feet, wasn't thrown over their head, putting in their chest,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: ran their hands by their heads. Like, as long as
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: he has accuracy and the ball is coming out of
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: his hand quick, I'm back on the four nine. I
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: think Jimmy he did exactly what I needed to see.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: I needed to see him look healthy, make passes and
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: not just be like a lazy you know, practice two
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: step drop just throwing it, like really seeing him put
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: some you know behind his passes and really throw a
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: tight spiral. Look good like, looked exactly what I expect
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Jimmy to look like. So nothing changed, buddy, I'm going
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: to probably sprinkle more on the first half money line
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: for this four nine team. I am full game just
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: because again I've talked to a bunch of pros. They're right,
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: like I'm I might be buying too much into my
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: own future in this FOURT ninis team that they're gonna
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: pull the actual upset off with Green Bay. That's it's
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: fair argument to say it's Aaron Rodgers year. Again he's
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: at m v P. They're they're the best team of football.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Like when they're fully healthy, all their pieces that are there,
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: they're the best team. We talked all that show about.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Their weakness is running. They cannot stop the run. On defense.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: We saw this foreigners team to that guy Dallas Cowboys team,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: they made Deck sit on his ass. He couldn't get
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: a rhythm. The man could not find a rhythm. You
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: saw once he found a rhythm was in the fourth
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: quarter because they kept getting short fields, and they kept
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: getting the ball and they had more time with the ball.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: This is the this is the formula to beat this
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers team. Like Aaron Rodgers, we've seen it when
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: like they lost that Buccaneers the Bucks. Yeah, they got
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: lucky that Scotty Miller touched on before halftime last year
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: and the NFC Championship game, but they also ball controlled.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: They really ball controlled that game and kept Rodgers off
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: the field. He made a little comeback at the end
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: of the game once he got into rhythm, but again
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: it was too late by then. So looking at his four,
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: nineis team, I have to believe that there their run
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: game is gonna make this game close. Like six is
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: such a big number, Like I really can't believe. It's
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: just sitting up there. That's what I kind of feel
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: like a little bit like a fool take in it.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: But then I look at the numbers and it's it's
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: looks like it's public and sharp money coming in heavy
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: on Green Bay and in the playoffs, it's usually good
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: to be on the opposite side of the public and
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: the professionals. The bookmakers usually know what they're doing. So
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: unless this number shoots all up to seven, six and
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: a half. I'm feeling pretty damn good about taking a
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: six year. That's a fair number, that's a that's a
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: really sharp number. Two Because again we talked about time Chad,
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: it lands on six often. Okay, it doesn't really land
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: on seven. It's more likely laid on six. I love
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: the value there. Not again, not gonna put as much
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: on the full game money line, just because I have
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: a futures with the four nineers, but first half money line.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Green Bay coming out slow after extended rest against the
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: team for nineers that they're ready for this. Like again Shanahan,
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: he's really dominated his ex existence and the four they
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: beat him this past season thirty eight against the four Nins.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: We talked about that. Green Bay had some miracle play
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: at the end with Rogers to get that field goal
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: to win that game. We know the four Niners were
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: not good to start the year. They're much much better now,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: much more confident. Nick Bosa also is pract this thing
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: we're not practicing, but he was on the field with
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: his helmet yesterday. Um going through concussion protocols. Fred Warrener
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: supposed to be back to for this four hours defense,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Big big deals to me for this team. So I'm
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: I'm sticking to it. Chat. I believe in this four
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: Niners team. I still think they have a really good
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: chance and went out right. But taking that six, that's
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: the smart player. You take that number. Yeah, it's funny.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: It's the one game that I just cannot seem to
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: get behind. And I normally have so much confidence betting
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: the Niners as a big dog, and I don't know
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: why I'm having a hard time, you know, because Jimmy,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: Jimmy g playing in what is the five degrees in
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Green Bay for Sunday It'll be two degrees and wind
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: shield below zero. So fuck, I'm scared too, buddy. But
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: it's like I got it. Like we saw last week,
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Shanahan's run blocking scheme, they dominated Dallas. I'm running that
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: ball and that's what I have to believe in. It's
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: like this guy, yeah, he's one of the worst ever
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter and this he can choke away.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: I win like nobody. But taking of six points, that's
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: just a lot of points for Shanehan in the playoffs.
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: All right, all right, let's say for our big ball
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: is bet you like say I was gonna say Kansas
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: City Chiefs. Yeah, yeah, no, that's that's that's fair because
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: we're going against really really smart groups taking that number.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah like that. To me, it feels like it. That
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: feels like the foxhole and the big Balls better the
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: week because everybody is against us, like we have not
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: heard from our collective sources, and we have entirely different
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: sources than anybody is liking the Chiefs in this game.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: Everybody seems to love the Bills. And here we are.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: Let's clide down into the foxhole. How is it that
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: the big Balls bet of the week is one of
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: the best teams of this generation? I don't know. How
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: are we alone? How are we in a fucking foxhole?
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know, But we are with the Kansas City
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: Chiefs minus two minus one and a half against the
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. My man, all right, Tennessee minus three and
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: a half, Chiefs minus two, Niners plus six Rams plus
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: three two favorites, two dogs, a f C favorites, NFC dogs.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: This could go a million different ways. It could all
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: go against us, Simon. We just don't know. I would
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: be shocked if you follow me and my players go
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: blow five dred this week. I just really like the
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: sides ronning. I like the total is like again, I
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: got three unders one over, I might as well be
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: four unders, like I I could flip come game time.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: But I can tell you right now, Mice, I made
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: a small bout in the over just because I just
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: really don't want to be cheering for an under. My
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: homes first, Josh Allen matchup. You're unders our Cincinnati, Tennessee
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: under forty seven. It's Green Bay, San Francisco under forty seven,
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: Tampa l A under forty eight and a half, and
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: you like over fifty four and a half in Kansas City, Buffalo.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: Follow everything. We're doing the Action Network Gap. We also
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: put our picks in the phaves five in the Action
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: Network Gap, the fhaves five. We will put those in
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Sunday morning after we do our show, commits me on
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: Action Network HQ. It is live. It is not a podcast.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: Watch it on Twitter, watch it on YouTube. We'll discuss
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: what's happening in the moment in real time with the
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: most up to date lines. We will put our picks
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: in after that. You know what time they're doing it
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: on Saturday. Convince me Saturday. We're discussing it's probably gonna
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: be nude, so let's hold off on that for now,
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: all right. Just yeah, you check check our twitters, we'll
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: post what time. Check our twitter's. We'll probably do it
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: at noon on Saturday. It's all she wrote for me,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Chad Millman, for Simon Hunter, Micha and Padre. This has
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: been the Favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Download
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: us on Apple, on Spotify, rate US, review us, give
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: us five stars, but say, whatever the funk you want,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: talk to you on Tuesday. I love you, hm, hm