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The Favorites - Kentucky Derby Betting Guide · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I'm Chad Mellman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: If you don't know, today is Wednesday, Kentucky Derby's on Saturday.
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  Speaker 1: Today is one of the most critically important days in
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  Speaker 1: the run up to the Kentucky Derby. Simon Hunter, my bff,
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  Speaker 1: my companion, MIKEL. Padre. Do you know what is so
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: special about today? I don't, but I love talking ponies,
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  Speaker 1: so I'm excited to hear just whatever you guys are
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: about to talk about with Kentucky Derby. I'm gonna ask
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: our guests Andy b and Cone Action Network Analyst tv
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: E G analyst. She knows more about horse racing then
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: you and I will know about anything in our entire lives. Andy,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: how are you. I'm good. Let's not get crazy. No,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: I'm just you know, out there shoveling poop at the
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: end of the day. That's my that's my main thing.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: So we'll explain that to people, because, like you know,
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: there are gonna be people who know you from what
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: you do on tv G. There are certainly gonna be
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: people who follow the podcast and follow your stuff on action,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Like explain to people your background, what you actually do
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: day to day and how you got into it. My
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: dad is a third generation horse trainer from France, and
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: me being his child, you got roped in at a
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  Speaker 1: young age. You know, I've been riding horses since I
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  Speaker 1: was seven. I started working for him and galloping racehorses
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  Speaker 1: and four years ago and I've been his assistant ever since.
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  Speaker 1: Um I went to University of Florida, but that did
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  Speaker 1: last very long because I got just you know, the
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  Speaker 1: racetrack is just the racetrack is my home. And I
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  Speaker 1: recently started working as a reporter for TVG and helping
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: them handicap and my job for them really is to
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  Speaker 1: look at horses they want, kind of like a horseman's
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  Speaker 1: eye brought to the handicapper side. So that's kind of
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  Speaker 1: what I do for them. That's fascinated to me because
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: thinking about what a trainer's life is and thinking about
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  Speaker 1: working at the track and being in the in the
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  Speaker 1: paddocks and all that kind of stuff. It seems the
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  Speaker 1: way they portray it in the movies and in books
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  Speaker 1: to be incredibly romantic, like it's lovely and you're working
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: with animals and you've got a sixth cents for communicating
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: and your magical in the way that you can into it.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: What other beings and other entities need? Walk me back?
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Is it not romantic? You know? I'm not gonna lie.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I do have quite a few sea biscuit moments every
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: now and then, But I am a very romantic person.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Um So I do like to see, you know, those
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: moments like I don't know when I breathe diamond while
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: on the grass before she ran in the jest to
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  Speaker 1: me and I literally almost started crying, and I was like,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: this is this is a sea biscuit moment, you know
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: what I mean? But you know, the day to day
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  Speaker 1: it's not an easy job. We get up, we're there
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  Speaker 1: every day, Christmas, New Year's four o'clock in the morning,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: cleaning stalls. You're everyone helps out, you know, like as
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  Speaker 1: an assistant, I gotta help my grooms out as much
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  Speaker 1: as I can. You know, we work as a team,
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  Speaker 1: and you know, getting on horses who aren't always the
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  Speaker 1: most cooperative. You know, they have each horse as an individual.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: They have personalities, their their stars. You know, they're athletes
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: and they know that it's all about them, and you know,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: sometimes they just want to drag you around the track
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: like a rag doll at four o'clock in the morning
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: when a thirty degree is at Keenland and you can't
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: feel your hands and they're burning a hole in your
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: legs and you know, but it's all that hard work
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: that makes the moments when they win so special and
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: that makes you ugly cry and just have those sea
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: biscuit moments. Listen, I know what it's like to have
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: to carry petulant talent that I just think they are everything.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at sign that on the zoom right now?
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Are you trying? I was gonna say, I thought you
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: was gonna say, once you get over the smell, it's
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: a pretty good gig because I've been to a couple
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: of horse stables and you have to get adjusted. Once
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: you do, it's not bad. But that first waft when
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  Speaker 1: they open up that barn door into the horse table,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: oh my god, it really does hit you in the face. See,
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  Speaker 1: I just feel like I don't even I don't even
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  Speaker 1: notice that anymore. I'm like, I think I smell like
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: that all the time. Now, like that's just a part
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: of a personality trade at this point, is just horsepoop?
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  Speaker 1: Just that's going to keep keeping guys away. They go
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: to the bar covering a horse boob. I mean, that's
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: a good way to tear the guy's away, isn't it? Perfect?
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  Speaker 1: Be Andy? I opened the show by saying that today
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  Speaker 1: is a very critically important day in the run up
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  Speaker 1: to the Kentucky Derby. Uh. It's known around the land
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  Speaker 1: as whisper Wednesday, sper Wednesday. Uh, And generally what that
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  Speaker 1: means is that on Wednesday, sort of after the horses
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  Speaker 1: have been in Louisville and running the track for a
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  Speaker 1: few days, the handicappers and the trainers, they all start
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  Speaker 1: to get a real sense of what who's got a
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  Speaker 1: good shot, who's running well? Uh? They start lining up
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  Speaker 1: sort of what the circumstances on the track might be
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  Speaker 1: with the qualities and traits of the horses that are
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  Speaker 1: gonna be running in the race. So, as whisper Wednesday ends,
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  Speaker 1: what are you hearing about the horses that have performing well?
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  Speaker 1: That have been performing well? Uh? As we head into
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  Speaker 1: the race, I've heard nothing but good things about all
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  Speaker 1: the contenders. I know, Crown Pride, the Japanese horse, had
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  Speaker 1: an incredible work today, worked half in forty six, which
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  Speaker 1: was I mean, looking at this horse's form, he just
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  Speaker 1: doesn't seem like he's fast enough, if that makes sense,
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  Speaker 1: Like his his times, he's just not as quick as
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  Speaker 1: these other horses. But when he wanted Maydend, that track
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  Speaker 1: was extremely slow, extremely sandy, and he was able to
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  Speaker 1: power through that. In Japan has been not absolute fired
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  Speaker 1: this year, So that's just something we have to consider. Right. Um,
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  Speaker 1: of course looks incredible and seems to be taken to
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  Speaker 1: the track. Well. Obviously we're gonna have sloppy conditions on
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  Speaker 1: Derby Day, I think, so that is going to be
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  Speaker 1: I mean as usual, right, but that's going to be
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  Speaker 1: a huge factor in terms of numbering these horses down
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  Speaker 1: to who's serious and who's not. Who else have you
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  Speaker 1: heard about sort of as the week has been going on,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, it seems like those Clutcher horses are all
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  Speaker 1: doing well. I mean, I'm excited to see how charge
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  Speaker 1: its developed because I remember when he debuted at Gulf
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Stream and I saw him in the product. I said,
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  Speaker 1: this is Todds Derby horse out of iron works, Emmanuel,
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  Speaker 1: this is this one is the Derby horse. And then
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  Speaker 1: of course he got beat by Volcanic, but he had
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  Speaker 1: like a horrible trip, like Volcanic just kind of pressed
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  Speaker 1: on him the whole way. He never got a chance.
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  Speaker 1: Then he came back in I think what he came
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  Speaker 1: back in one impressively by eight and a half. And
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  Speaker 1: then when he ran into Florida Derby, I feel like,
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  Speaker 1: I just feel like this horse tries so hard and
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: in the stretch people were saying he was green, but
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  Speaker 1: I think he just got a bit tired. You know,
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  Speaker 1: it's really difficult to break your maiden and take that
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  Speaker 1: step in going to Florida Derby, and he still showed up.
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  Speaker 1: So he's at one a very serious horse by tapp it,
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  Speaker 1: you know he should have that should take to that
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  Speaker 1: sloppy track really well. You know you mentioned form and
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: we talked a little bit about, you know, is it
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  Speaker 1: going to be muddy on Saturday or what is the
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  Speaker 1: weather going to be? For get about sort of the
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: training on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday at the Derby. What are
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  Speaker 1: you looking for when you're trying to handicap horses in
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  Speaker 1: the Derby in the lead up, in the months leading
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  Speaker 1: up to the race. You know, just so many factors
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  Speaker 1: go into it, right, I mean, this particular derby is
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  Speaker 1: going to be very speedy. We have a really talented,
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  Speaker 1: strong group of front running horses. There's so many of
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  Speaker 1: them it could set up really well for a horse
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  Speaker 1: to close. Um. Obviously, Epicenter has been a horse that has.
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  Speaker 1: I mean it's crazy because I've never actually seen Epicenter
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  Speaker 1: in really in real life, but every time I've watched
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  Speaker 1: race replays of him, he just stands out like it's
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: like if all the horses were words on a page
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  Speaker 1: at the center would be like bold that. He just
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  Speaker 1: looked physically outstanding, even on you know, my phone, like
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  Speaker 1: on TV. So I've always thought that was a very
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  Speaker 1: serious horse. But and going into this race, there's gonna
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  Speaker 1: be a lot of speed going to the front. Zozo's
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  Speaker 1: I know, it's probably just gonna try to attack him.
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  Speaker 1: And you've got classic Causeway, you have a lot of speed.
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  Speaker 1: So if Epicenter doesn't relax, like if he can't settle,
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  Speaker 1: and it's especially more difficult or horses to settle on
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  Speaker 1: a slabby track because there they're hearing the clacking the clacking,
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: and sometimes courses just get like freaked out by that
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  Speaker 1: and they don't breathe. You know what you want these horses,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: horses who are front runners, it's best if they can
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  Speaker 1: get to the front, get a lead and just like
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: relax and chill up there. But if they have courses
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: constantly in contention with them up front, it's like they
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: run their race too early, if that makes sense. So,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: you know, a lot of what I look for is
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: how these races can set up and what advantages some
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: of these horses will have over the others based on
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: their previous form, and also trends of improvement. I love
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: to look for trends of improvement a horse like Simplification,
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  Speaker 1: for example. It's a really nice force. And I remember
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: he from when he ran in the Holy Bowl to
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: the Fountain of Youth, he physically developed so much like
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: that is such a good thing. I haven't seen him recently,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: so I don't know how he's doing in person right now.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: But that horse is just a little bit inconsistent in
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  Speaker 1: his numbers for me. You see he in his numbers,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: he'll run higher ones like he run after the Holy
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Bowl and the and the Pound of Youth and then
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  Speaker 1: in the Florida Derby. That's not really I don't like
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: to see that as much as I like to see
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: a horse like Sandon who is like consistently running a
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  Speaker 1: higher number slowly every time he's running a little bit
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  Speaker 1: points higher. I think that's something to look at. And
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: another horse he was like that is cyber Knife. I
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: don't know if he's you know, Arkansas has been extremely
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  Speaker 1: weak this year. Like horses who've been running at Oakland,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: they come to Keenland and they've just not been running
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: like Turfoy form has been stronger, particularly like keen Land
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  Speaker 1: than Oaklawn form. So I just kind of it goes
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  Speaker 1: show that Oakland has been very weak this year. Um,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: but you know, nevertheless, that horse has been consistently improving.
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  Speaker 1: So that's very interesting to see you going into this race.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: So there's two things I want to follow up because
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: I know Simon wants to ask a question, but, uh,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: you mentioned a couple of numbers there that one of
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: the horses, like, explain to people what that means, because
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: a lot of people who are listening to this won't
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: really understand sort of how you look at numbers and
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: what some of those numbers mean when you're judging a horse. Okay,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: so there's I mean, numbers don't mean everything, but they're
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: definitely a good basis. Basically, after a horse runs, they
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: get a rating on their performance based on the conditions,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: the type of trip they had, you know, the how
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: they performed, and they get a grade, like a number
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: grade based on the performance. For buyers, which are on
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: the racing form, the higher number better. But then there
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: are some other things, is like um ragazine sheets thereographed
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: like those who look for lower numbers, but the racing
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: form uses buyers. So that's kind of what we go
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: off here. And you know, higher buyers are better, and
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: it's kind of it's interesting to see a trend. Like
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: trends and buyers are very interesting. You want to see,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: like I said, improvement is great. Um. Sometimes if they
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: run similar numbers in a row, they'll like run the
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: next best number, and then sometimes they'll bounce, like if
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: a horse has just been running like consistently high buyers
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: like sometimes they'll just bounce like if like they will
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: regress suddenly because they've had so many good races in
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: a row. Type of deal. The biggest horse race of
• 13:43
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• 14:00
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• 14:01
  Speaker 1: horse doesn't win. The tv G app gives you all
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  Speaker 1: access to free picks, analysis and wagering advice from industry experts. Personally,
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  Speaker 1: I'll be betting Epicenter to win. The Derby is coming
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  Speaker 1: site credit that expires after thirty days. Visit TVG dot
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  Speaker 1: com for offer terms. Gambling problem called one eight hundred
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: five to two for seven zero zero. The second question
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: I want to ask you is thinking about sort of
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: post positions. Do you look at certain post positions as
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: being the most advantageous, specifically when it comes to the
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby, Absolutely, um, I would hate to be on
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: the far outside. I feel a bit it's a bit
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: unfortunate for horses like white a Barrio, cyber Knife, Classic Causeway,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: all those. It's much more difficult because you think about it.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: To get over to the rail that's already you have
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: to exert yourself a lot. But then again, being on
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: the inside isn't particularly advantageous either, because you have the
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: pressure of a nineteen horse field. For example, being that
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: one hole, that horse is going to feel crowded, like
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: imagine sitting on the window seat of a plane but
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: having like nineteen people next to you. You know, it's
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: a little bit claustrophobic. I was a little bit disappointed
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: to see Modonacle drawing the one hole. I was like, dang,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: that's such. That's disappointing. However, Modonacle has drawn one multiple times.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: He's drawn one in the in the Wood Memorial, he
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: drew run in the Remsen, and he's won both of those.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: So if any horse can handle that one whole, it's
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: probably him. But that is also, you know, a tough
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: spot to be in, best place to be in a
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: big field like this, I mean probably you know charge
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: it is in a great position, stand in excellent position.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Even with twelve, Taiba has in a good position. Um
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: at the center of being a speed horse. I think
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: three whole could be advantageous for him because he doesn't
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: instead of needing to break and make a big move,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: he can just kind of break and send and kind
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: of just get where he needs to be. Um, yeah,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: that's great. Yeah, Chad knows. I love drama. I love drama,
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: not my personal but in sports, I absolutely love it.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: And when we talk horse racing, I just keep thinking
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: about Bob Bob Baffort where I know that I'm assuming
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: the horse racing will open, welcome on back with open arms.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: He's definitely tarnished. Like I'm again, I'm a follower of
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: racing where I followed the big events. When I thought
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: to him, I thought of like, he's he's the top.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: He was like the Michael Jordan felt like a racing
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: Now how is he viewed in the racing world, especially
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: is he is it? A lot of people still talking
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: about it. I mean a year later, people still bring
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: it up now at racing events. Absolutely, it's a very
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: big deal. You know, a lot of we uphold this
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: sport with a lot of integrity, and it's important for
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: each of us to do our part as trainers, as
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: assistants to uphold that integrity. And I don't know, um,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: you know, if his actions were just more repercussion of negligence,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: you know, like I feel like maybe just wasn't cautious
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: because there's rules, Okay, there's medication rules in racing. Um,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: what he got caught for banda methods. And that's a
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: perfectly legal substance that you know, we use when we
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: inject joints, which is like getting an oil change. The
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: courses need an oil changing their joints, even like hunter
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: jumpers and stuff like that. Horse sport horses, Um, they
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: need that extra little help sometimes to help them, you know,
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: form better more comfortably, to just help them. Um. And
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: it's perfectly legal, but not fourteen days and within a
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: fourteen day period of running, um, because within that fourteen
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: days that could be like performance enhancing as opposed to
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: just helping them aiding them in training, you know what
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: I mean. So he kind of obviously went within those
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: parameters in some way, whether he knew it or not,
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: and that's like a you know, he definitely needs to
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: be held accountable for that. You know, you have to
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: do your job as a trainer to pay attention. So
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: if you're negligent in the score, like you unfortunately, because
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: you're the representative of that horse, of that barn, and
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: you have to be held accountable. So you've got posts
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: on Action Network in the app Action network dot com
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: run down as we're sitting here Wednesday night, who your
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: predictions are for the top three spots in the Kentucky Derby?
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: If we are betting the Derby, who are taking? So right?
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: I wish I could do a top four? Do a
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: top four? Okay, all right, I'm gonna go um Zandon
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: charge it at the Center in Taiba, And how would
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: you place them? I mean, I've been so high on
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: Epicenter this whole time, but I just feel like it's
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: too good to be true and that he's going to bounce.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: I feel like he's just a very consistent horse. You
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: can't knock. I mean, any of these horses, you can't
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: knock their consistency. I could see Charge It taking a
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: piece of it. I could see Zandon winning the thing, honestly,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: because he's a deep closer. There's gonna be a ton
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: of speed during the Keenland Meat. I actually did post
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: race interviews on a pony for TVG and when I
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: interviewed Flabby and Pratt after winning after Zandon won the Bluegrass,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Zanden tried to mount my pony like he was and
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: you'd think after winning the blue Grass, you know, he
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: should be tired. Like horses after they run, they're they're
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: like Zandon was like, oh hey, hute, Oh hey. I
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: was like, oh yeah, So that's a really good sign
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: because that shows that that race didn't take anything out
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: of him, and he beat a very salty group. He
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: galloped out incredible. It's like, I mean, Flatvian could barely
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: pull him up. He wanted to go another lap, And
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: I think that is an extremely good sign. Zandon is
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: three to one right now, Epicenter seven to two. Uh,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: those are the two favorites as far as I can
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: see as we stand Wednesday before the race. Obviously, because
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: of the way horse betting works, or betting on your
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: paramiccal betting works, like these odds all changed dramatically and
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: whoever you know cyber knife right now is one by Saturday.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: If more people start jumping on that particular horse, it
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: could be going off five to one, four to one.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: So just because you get the good odds now doesn't
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: mean it's gonna stay that way. But I'm going to
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: pressure you here one horse, who's gonna win the Kentucky Derby?
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: You gave me four. I felt like that was a
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: nice way to transition into asking the harder question, which
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: is give me the one. Pressure, no pressure, a lot
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: of pressure. There's a lot of people that listen to
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: this podcast, and if you get it wrong, they're all
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: going to remember, like, gun to my head right now? Right, Yes,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: I'll go with Zanden. Gun to my head, gun into
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: your head? Zanden currently three to one. Uh, go around
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: the favorite? Yeah, doesn't the matter? Like the best the
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: best pick is the best pick? Now, I know what
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: I'm going to bet. I love horizontal wagering, so I
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: love exact Does I love picking horses underneath? You know? Um,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: I think there's Zanden in the top spot and using
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: another horse underneath. Even kiss the Bomb is going to
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: be an interesting horse. I know, like on form, he's
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: just really looks like a grass and to Pete Polly
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: try kind of horse. But fun fact, I think like
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: seventy of Kentucky Derby winners or something have turf pedigree.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: And if a turf horse is going to take to
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: any dirt surface, it's the Churchill Downs dirt surface, especially sloppy,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: especially I mean on Derby day they make it wicked
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: fast anyways, But in slop it doesn't really matter, and
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: he's won in the slop. He broke his maiden in
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: the slop by four and a half length, so I
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: like that nine post position. He's a little bit of
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: a I don't know if I mean mentally. I saw
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: him when he won the Bourbon and he like broke
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: through the gates prematurely and he was a big handful.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: So he's gonna have to mature a lot mentally to
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: handle the Derby, because the Derby is a lot for
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: these horses. You know, none of these horses have ever
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: run in front of a crowd of two thousand people,
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: and they feel that pressure and the slop and it's
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: a lot to ask, really, and only a true champion
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: can handle everything throwing out them on that day the trip.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: It's it's a very serious race and it's I'm feeling
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: like the sea biscuit moment thought. It's just thinking about it.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: I'm so excited. Well, that's a great way listen the
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: way you framed it. You can feel that even when
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: you're watching, you know, from Connecticut or Philadelphia sixty seven
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: pm Eastern post time. It is truly dramatic. There's so
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: much pageantry, it's so much fun. Andy be and Cone,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: you can find her stuff on Action Network. You can
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: find her on tv G as an analyst. You can
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: find her in the paddocks at four am every single day.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: Thank you for coming on the favorite podcast for Matt Mitchell,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter. I am Chad Millman. This has been
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: the favorites from the Volume podcast Network. Download us from
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Apple podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. Rate reviews, subscribed,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: Until next time. I've you