Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / A Parlay Full of Contrarian Picks For NFL Week 8 and College Football

Transcript

A Parlay Full of Contrarian Picks For NFL Week 8 and College Football · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: M H. Welcome to the Favorites. I am Chad Millman
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: of the Action Network. It's Monday. This is the Parlay Show.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I am joined as always by my Action Network brothers.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Paula Duca ten years in the major leagues, many of
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: those with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: starting this week, four times as an All Star catcher.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Also Jeff Schwartz eight years in the NFL as a
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: terrific offensive lineman despite all the injuries. Oh boys, oh boys,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I'm going across the street, uh after the podcast, and
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go work on my field goal kicking. You
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: could probably make it in the NFL as a field
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: goal kicker right now. It has gotten to the point
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: and just a reminder in theory, we are going to
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: give everybody the heads up on what they should be
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: betting on this weekend. It's up to them if they
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: want to trail us and tail us. Because we had
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: a rough weekend. We went one and eight, and I
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: can't blame it all on field goal kickers, but certainly
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: when Justin Tucker lined up for that extra point and
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: we had Baltimore minus two and a half, I was conflicted.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I bet on Baltimore. But then in the pod with
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: black Check that we do on Fridays, he insisted we
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: take New Orleans and I like was in a hurry
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: and said, okay, fine. Um so I was okay with
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: how it ended up. Kind of I lost money, But
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: when one wanted in the super contest, I thought to myself,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: he's gonna miss this extra point. Well, so your fault.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: You did not say that. Oh do now we know
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: how to blame. Okay, I'm putting this on Twitter. You
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: are now getting blamed for this. He was two hundred
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: and two on eight s and he never missed one
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: in college as well. So it's your it's your fault.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: You thought the worst. I was hoping for the best
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: because I had probably one of the worst weekends I've
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: ever had gambling. I was looking forward to the Ravens
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: winning this game and overtime. But the thing is, um,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: here's why I felt this. The Action Network app, we
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: get alerts scoring alerts on games that you've been on,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: and for some reason, sometimes I will get the alert
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: before the play, like maybe ten seconds before the play.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Like it's you know, the way our
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: our API works, like the way our our app works
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: like we're pulling in the data and it's faster than
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: what you're seeing on television. And it just took like
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: one minute for me. I hadn't gotten the alert that
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: he made the extra point yet, and so I was like,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: where's the extra point? And I didn't. I didn't get it,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: And I'm like, it's crazy, right, I mean, gambling for
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: so long, you always have your phone on your You're
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: always looking for the scores. Since they've changed the extra point,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: you never looked at it. You have to look at it.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Now have to look at it. It's it's it's not
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: a given anymore. I mean, of the nine games that
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: we had, we had two missed extra points and at
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: least five miss field goals. I mean, Schwartzy had the
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: over in the Chiefs game. I mean, and Andy Dalton
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: and A. J. Greeny even decided to play that game
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: goes over. So you have games and just how about
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the bank? How about your favorite college play of the week.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: The Bearcats missed three field goals and Temple had crossed
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: the midfield twice, and then the last drive they just
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: drive down the field and score. In the overtime, they
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: just drive the field and scoring two plays and then
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: with the game. That was one of the worst things
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: I've ever seen. You know what I was telling Jad
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: before the kid made a field goal to ice the
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: game with like eight minutes left or somewhere and there,
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: and they said they didn't blow the whistle or the
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: TV time out wasn't ready yet. They were ready, and
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: the play went on. So the kid made the field goal,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: they go, no, no, no, no, no, no, we didn't
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: blow it in. Then he missed it and it would
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: assaulted the game with like six to eight minutes. So
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: he actually made one, they took it off the board
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: and he missed it. So like I was sitting in
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: here in my in my room watching the game, and
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: like I was just in shock that the text that
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: I sent you guys was like obviously I sat here
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: and I couldn't believe they lost a game. You sent
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: a gift that just said tilt that I thought was larious.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: I mean it did as it set me. I recovered
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit late, uh, I mean the Donk from
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: the Redskins was like my only savior, like I needed.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: I had so many miss extra points and so many
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: missed field goals. I had Baltimore obviously, um, and and
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: that for that to be the I guess to get
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: some of my money back with the doink on a
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: snap in fraction. I mean, these guys are making up
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: calls now, so so my guests on what on what
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: happened there. I was very surprised as well to see
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: that snapping fraction. Um is they were worn before the game.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: That the Cowboys long snapper moves the ball like that,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: and it wasn't agreedious enough in my opinion, to to
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: warrant a penalty. But it's a penalty. You don't have
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: to pick the ball, but move it. And he wasn't
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: doing it in a manner, was trying to snap the ball,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: just kind of setting his his hands and he didn't
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: even have a second hand in the ball. And so
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: they must have been worn before the game. Hey, that
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys long snapper does this, and then the Redskins
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: jumping off side of that situation kind of forced the
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: hand of the referee. If the Redskins don't jump off sides,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: if they just stay on side and he moves the ball,
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I don't think this ever gets called. So I'm not
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: sure that that the red Skins even knew what they
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: were doing by jumping off sides, um, but that helped
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: them obviously. And then you know he's look, fifty two
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: yards NFL now is not that big of a kick.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: But this game is us Jason Garrettford being for being
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: passive again. You know, fifty seconds left ball like the
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: forty five, you have a time out left, you only
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: get two plays off and one of them is a run. Um.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: You deserve to lose that game, although the Redskins deserve
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: to loser too, because they were the clock at the
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: end of the game. Like, Alex has a slide, they
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: got the ball back with like and Dallas got the
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: ball back with one A team that's ridiculous because Alex
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: and Alex Smith ran abounce seventeen year veterans slide, get down,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: forced the Cowboys user last time out, and you win
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: that game easily. Listen A weird, weird weekend. I do
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: want to ask paula serious question, like, well, as Angeles
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Dodgers are in the World Series for the second year row,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: it starts uh Wednesday night in Boston. Um, what's your
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: take right now? What are you thinking about this series? Well,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a lot closer than people think.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of people are already just giving
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: it to Boston. Um, the Dodgers did something that is
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: was tough to do to beat Milwaukee, because Milwaukee through
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: something at them that was really funky that you know,
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: with all these relievers and half starters, and so now
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be a regular series, and now Dave
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Roberts is going to be able to throw out his
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: regular lineup and not have to pinch hit guys in
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: the third and fourth inning. It's gonna be a whole
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: different ballgame. So, um, I do think now the two
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: best hitting teams, two best at that teams as as
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: is as in, they're gonna work the pitchers. So it's
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: gonna be the bullpens. And both these bullpens are not good.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: So I I think the Red Sox will win the
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: game because they're win the series because they're relentless. But
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: I do think the Dodters are gonna hang in there.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: The reason why they got three to four starters that
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: are lefties, and the one Achilles heel that the Red
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Sox do have is they struggle a tiny bit against
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: left handed pitching. But again, Alex Cora. I said it
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: a long time ago. He's one of my good friends,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: smartest guy ever played with. And it's crazy. I got
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: to play with him and Cora and at sometimes in
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: our career. Core Roberts batted it first and Core about
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: a second, and I've had a third for the daughters.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: So it's pretty cool for me to watch these two
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: guys go at it. But I think the Red Sox
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: are gonna win in like six or seven year. You
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: did actually say I remember when the baseball season started,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: you said, Alex Cora, um, uh is a great It's
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: gonna be a great manager for this team. Well, I
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: just knew, you know, I just knew he was. First
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: of all, bilingual is huge. Um. You know, when you
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: have guys with so many different languages. One guys from Venezuela,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: one guys UM from Puerto Rico. It's a Dominican to that,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: and they all speak different types of Spanish, and he
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: can be able to translate that and move that. Um.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: His brother went to Vanderbilt. Um, he went to Miami,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: was schooled here and he wasn't a very talented guy.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: But if it was hit at him, he were out.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: He did the little things right and carved out if
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: you know, thirteen fourteen year career, when you can do
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: that and come from a baseball family, and I just
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: knew it. I just knew he was gonna be able
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: to handle it. And here's the best part. His bench
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: coach is Ron Rennicky. Ron Rennicky was him and eyes
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: coach for the seven San Antonio Double A missions who
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: won the Texas League. So it's pretty cool for me.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: That is so cool. It's pretty awesome. I got the ring. Yeah,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: I got the Texas that's my only ring. I got
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Texas League Double A. Well you also have your number
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: retired a Arizona State. Yeah. Yeah, I appreciate that. You
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: get these all star rings when you go to the
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: All Star Game, but they're like you can get him
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: at seven eleven. They're the Johnston's Class ring, three hand
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: class ring. Oh if they're less than that, schworts. It's
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: like a bull ring and they go, okay, you got
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: you got invited. Okay, here, let me put your name
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: in the ring. I'm not even sure my bull rings
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: are at no idea. I gave him to my father.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: My father probably sports them all at The or Lando
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Sentinel Kennel Club dogs. That's good. Um, all right, let's
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: get to this thing. All right, let's make our picks.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: I don't have any rings. I don't either. Well you
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: just say you had bowl rings. Yeah, but we get
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: them with a win or lose, Like I lost a
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Vegas both eight and I gotta ring for that. So
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: it's not very impressive. I got nothing. Well, how I
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: physically don't even have them anyway, So that's like I
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: have nothing. At least you have a dog you can
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: cry too. I didn't even have a dog to cry
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: to yesterday. Sad so sad um. Jeff Paul made a
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: really good point. Are you better off at this point
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: in the process, considering we went one and eight this week,
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: which might be harder to do than going like five
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: and four and four and five, Should you just like
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: bet against everything we do and that might be how
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: you win at this point? It's maybe because oh man,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: it's a new week. It's chat's a new week. Renewed energy,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: renewed spirit. We're gonna get it right this week. I
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: have a feeling optimism wins the day. Fortune favors the bold.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: All right, now, I gotta we gotta get us back
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: off on the right. Start all right, give me this.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Give me the Lions as three point favorites at home
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: against the Seahawks. The Slions team is for real. Their
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: past defense is one of the best in the NFL.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Right now. Offensively, they can run the football again. They've
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: never been to run the football like for the last
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: five years, they have not been over the football. Now
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: carry on. John's had a hundred and fifty yards this weekend.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: He's had over a hundred yards now in a couple
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: of games in a row. They're healthy, they're playing at
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: a eye level, and that Patricia has worked wonders on
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: that defense. And like I said, I believe they're their
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: top past defense in the NFL right now. Continue again
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: this weekend, you have Seattle, who basically is Russell Wilson.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: If Russell Wilson plays well to have a chance to win.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: If not, they're gonna lose. They don't have a lot
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: of weapons around them. Their defense is not what it
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: used to be. Their run game is not what it
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: used to be. I just think people are still undervaluing
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: the Lions, and I don't get it. I love this idea.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: I'll take you one better. Detroit is now minus two
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: and a half in some places. Where's that? So? What
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: that means? I think I think it's at the West Gate.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm sinked up. Well, that's what matters. So
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: to give me two and a half, even better, give
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: it to me right now. I would tell you, hey,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: that means that the wise guys came in on the
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Seahawks early. But they did. I don't disagree with you,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: and I don't know why they came in on Seattle.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Like this is Detroit is playing great off of buy
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: maybe it sales off of bye, but they're not very
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: teams off of by that are good, like the like
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Andy Reid who's lost twice in his career off of bye,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: like Sean Payne. Now, who is I think thirteen and
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: one or thirteen two off of bye? Great coaches and
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: great with great personnel and great quarterbacks use the bye
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: to their advantage. Obviously, what's the all gonna do? They
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: don't have the horses to come up with like a
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: brand new game plan and use all these guys in
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: creative manners that they have. Russell Wilson, if he's playing well,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: the team plays well. If not, they're are they don't
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: have the wide receivers to separate from these Lions defensive backs.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: I think the Lions the Lions, I don't and masked
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: after by the way really good in the fourth quarter.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: So if even if they're down by a little bit,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: I think they can come back and win this game late.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: I like it. I like the Lions. I think they're improving.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: And I'm with you. If you play off the bye week,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: even in college, you would have got buried this week.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: And I think sometimes guys get a little bit lazy
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: or you can come out, you come out a little
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: bit lack of days ago. So I'm not buying the
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: bye week thing anymore. And I like the way they played.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Are watch the whole Miami game, brock Oswellers playing well,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: and I thought Detroit, I mean they got a ton
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: of pressure on him. He he made most of his
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: plays out of the pocket. So um, I don't mind
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: this pick at all, especially two and a half. Yeah,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: boom shaka laka, book it print it done. We're on
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: the way to town k Boys from NBA. Jam boom
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: shack ohacka. I think it is. I think it is.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Are you ready for my pick? So ready? So bold
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: the Denver Broncoes plus ten against the Kansas City Chiefs.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, Oh my god. Okay, so what did
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: everybody see last night? Another tour to force Pat Mahomes?
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: Would we see last night? We saw the true colors
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: of the Cincinnati Bengals, Andy Dalton, A J. Green just
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: straight quit in the fourth quarter, straight quit. A J.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Green could have got a first down. Straight quit. Now
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: I started looking at Denver a little bit. You know,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: their defense held the rams of twenty three points, starting
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: to play a little bit better. I understand that Cardinals
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: might be the worst team in football, but Von Miller
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: was destroying people. And I have a feeling they match
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: up with Casey for some reason very well. And they
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: had them beat earlier in the season thirteen two to
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: three before Mahomes beat him, um in the fourth quarter,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: um to twenty three. But if you look at Denver,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: they they've been in every single game and most of
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: them are close. You know, the Baltimore game was was close,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: too late, And like I said, their defense is starting
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: around and I'm getting ten points at home. Um, it's
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: not in prime time. Casey's due to have a little
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: bit of a clinker and I just think that that
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Denver matches up well with them, and they're starting to
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: gel a little bit, and they get an extra couple
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: of days since that. You know, Denver played on Thursday night.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is seven l against the spread so far
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: this year. They're not. Oh, Denver's the team that covered
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: against him, right, I thought, I thought I saw that
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: there's seven and oh, maybe that was a wrong stat yesterday.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: That is wrong. They're doing that against the closing line.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: They're not doing against the opening line. Because, as you
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: guys might recall, I middled that game, you did so, so,
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: so what is the more accurate line to use in
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: that in that situation? The opening one of the closing line.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: The closing line is what everyone sort of the novices,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: what the uninformed would use. But to just blatantly flat
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: out say they're undefeated against the spread, uh, is misunderstanding
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: the nuance and the fluidity of the point spread. Interesting
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: because you could all because also depends on where you
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: got that New England Chiefs number two, because you got
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: it three versus three and a half or four. Obviously
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: that changes from a push to a win. Well, they
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: probably all got to spread up like that the over unders,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: by the way, have not been is is kind of
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: everyone keeps betting the overs and Chiefs games, and Andy
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: read last night, Really I text my brother last night,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: by the way, after the game place for the Chiefs,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: and I said, I said, Um, what I say? I said?
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: I said something like, uh, like Big Red cost me
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: the over in that game, but I guess you played well,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: so it doesn't matter something like that, like have the
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: over in Big Red knuck picking a field goal and
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: the game was brutal but otherwise great job tonight. He said, ha, thanks.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: Um it was uh yeah, I mean brutal, but eleven
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: point eleven. Now I've seen in some places too. It's
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: a lot of points of NFL game. It's a lot
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: of points. I love this pick. It's a lot of points.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I think I think you gotta roll. I think you're right,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: paul Um. Chiefs win this game. But they've shown a
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: little bit of shakiness every now and then, and plus
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: I think their defense is too inconsistent. In my opinion,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: you don't think can be the one guy that can
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: can one guy. My brother shuts him down. That's not
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: that I understand. But I think maybe they spy him more.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I I think no von Miller. My
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: brother has played von Miller like the last five times,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: and he's not allow of sack. I mean, look, he couldn't.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: He can give up a sack. I'm not saying he won't.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: But um, my brother's good job against Volmeller. But I
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: just think the Chiefs defense is two up and down
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: in my opinion that I played better recently. Uh, they
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: still don't have Eric Berry, So I think eleven points
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: is just a it's a lot of points in the
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: NFL game, a lot a lot of points against a
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: team they've already played. I think we are. I think
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: we've found some agreement here and then we have we have?
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: Did we are? Are we moving on? Is that? What's
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: happening right now is in my church. There we go. Boys.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: We're gonna get back to our parlay in one second,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: but first we're gonna tell our listeners about robin Hood.
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  Speaker 1: That's Favorites dot robin hood dot com. Let's get back
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: to the Parlay boys. The Los Angeles rams Um are
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: nine point favorites against the Green Bay Packers. This is
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: the largest spread in Aaron Rodgers career. They opened a ten,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: it's now nine. The early money has come in on
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: Green Bay. The Millman. Money is coming in on Green Bay.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Don't bring nine points into my house. When Aaron Rodgers
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: has the ball. I don't care if he's playing on
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: one leg. I don't care if his defense can't stop anybody.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: I don't care if you can't name a running back
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: who's played for Green Bay for the last decade since
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: before Dorsey Levins. Wow, James Starks, this Jack Polly. Give
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: me your Rogers plus nine points. You can get it
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: as high as ten some places, and it's on the
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: app right now. We just put out the two picks
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: against the two best teams in the NFL. I don't
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: really care, but giving Aaron Rodgers nine and a half points,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: are you kidding me? The Rams defense, by the way,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: has has played the Niners. You know they played them poorly,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: but they allowed well, they allowed thirty how many points
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: to the Broncos. The Broncos end up covering that game.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: They allowed thirty points to the Vikings as well. The
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Rams defense is kind of is the suspect point of
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: their team. Um, they're gonna have a game where they
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: play close in Green Bays nine a half points for
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. That's ridiculous. So I'm with you here agreement
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: that was giving my my very next place. So, um,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm with you here again. Do you want to
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: deny us? No? I like it. Listen off of bye
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: week to you. I know he's he's one leg, but
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: maybe that now it's one and a half way. There's
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: a couple of games here that are just, oh my god,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: they're like the ripest, heaviest. I feel like you're gonna
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: go somewhere else later, and I'm gonna let you take it.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna take the picture. I think you're going
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: with branches. They're weighing down the branches of our point spreads.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: Jeff Man NFL Slate. This week is interesting. Um where
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: do I go from here? Where do I go from here? Um?
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: This is I was gonna take the Packers next. I
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: have a college game. I don't want to get to
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: it quite yet. Um, I'm gonna save you the game.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna take Chad. So I give me
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: the Browns plus eight and a half at Pittsburgh right now.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: It might be is an eight or eight or eight
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: and a half. The Browns keep playing close games. I
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: think most are games ye have been decided by four
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: or less points. I don't know why the getting their
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: getting and a half points or they already played the
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: Steeler as well this year. Um, the Steelers in my opinion,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: are two up and down to give anyone eight and
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: a half points. We know that the Brown's defense is
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: really good, uh, and they can't win games because the kickers,
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: So eight and a half points has nothing to do
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: with kickers. Like this line to me, some of these
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: lines this week are are way too high in my opinion,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: and people are gonna hammer the Steelers probably and a half.
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: We have a bell, to my opinion, and my in
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: my mind, hasn't he's shown up. I have not seen
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: the tweets saying he's even in the building yet. Yeah
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: I have. I haven't seen it either, So he's not
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: even playing in this game. This is is a rivalry game.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: The Browns, like I said, I've have this year, have
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: just played an all close games because they have a
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: quarterback who can just sling at the end of games.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: And also because their defense is good. They can come
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: up with plays when they have to come up with plays.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Even yesterday, the defense comes up with plays and their
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: kicker just can't do anything. They lose all these close games. Um,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: but we're not picking winners and losers here, we're picking
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: whether they stay closer. They've played, They've played a tie,
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: lost by three, one by four, lost by three, one
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: by three, they are blown up by the Chargers and
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: lost by three of the Bucks. So trend is they
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: keep games close. You give me eight and a half
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: points here, Um, I'll take the Browns here, Chad. I
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: looked at that, uh, and that's exactly why I was
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: thinking of that game. I think that every single time
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield seems out of it, he finds a way
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: to get back in it. And it hasn't been against
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: just bad teams. Um, it's been against Uh. The only
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: time it's really sort of hasn't happened is against the Chargers.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: And that felt to me like situational, Like the Charges
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: were gonna come in and just annihilate the Browns. The
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: Browns had too much credit. You love the Charges in
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: that game, you loved like when you like went against
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: your principles everything you loved it. Charges are good, though
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: they are, But I also didn't love the Charges this weekend.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: I just felt like that was a spot. Um, I
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: agree with you. So I think one thing is look
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: the I think we're coming off a bye right, the
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: Steelers didn't play this weekend, and so um I think that.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: I think that's why the line is a little bit inflated.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: But Baker plays man, Baker makes plays. Baker comes to play.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: Baker doesn't like to lose. No, he doesn't. He's got
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: that thing. He's got the thing I mean, he keeps
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: him close, he does shorts, he's right thing that thing thing. Wow? Man,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: who sings that? Who is that? Lauren Hill? Miss Lauren Hill,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: Mrs Miss Lauren Hill, do not disrespect You're ready for
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: my pick. I this is gonna be the college pick.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: I know it right here. No, it's not go back
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: to the pros. My co pick is last New Orleans
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: Saints at the Minnesota Vikings Under and over is fifty two.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Are not taking the Saints. This is under. I'm taking
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: the under. At the time of this podcast, ninety seven
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: per cent of the public is on the over. This
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: line opened at fifty three. This is a ridiculous line. Okay,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: this is New Orleans. Defense played a lot better against Baltimore.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's offense is not that big of a juggernock. They
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: got one wide receiver they need to cover. Uh. They
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: put up a ton of points yesterday against a bad
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: Jet team. Did did the Vikings fifty two points in
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: a game that seems like it's gonna be a pretty
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: tough knocking game. Um? Uh, both defenses pretty solid. I
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: understand Drew Brees can control the clock, but I just
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: don't see fifty two points between these two teams five
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: and one and four and two, And I think this
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: is a big game. And then like when I said,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: when I look at the numbers, everybody's just pounding the
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: over and the line's gone down a point, went from
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: fifty three to fifty two. M I. I don't disagree,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: but it's the way I've been looking under an NFL
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: this season is you take unders with bad offensive lines,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: and the and the and the Vikings do have a
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: bad offensive line. And the Saints defense does this every
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: year where they get better, season goes on. We saw
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: them play better this weekend obviously, um against the Ravens
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: and you know they only allowed twenty three points and
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: one of those was was a late touchdown. UM. I
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: like the Vikings overall in this game. It's a pick
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: them right now. But the under seems like a solid
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: play me too. I like the Vikings. I like the
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: under in fact, in fact, boys, let's double down. Yeah,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: that's I like this. Wow, let's do it. Let's go
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings in the owner. Do you realize we're playing
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: again in the Rams? What's their record? Shorts team? Uh? Southern,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Saints six and one. We're a
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: contrarian operation around here. This is this is actually network.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: If anybody tweets that these are square picks, you don't
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: get to one or eight. We're gonna We're gonna get
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: square pick tweets, don't worry, Buddy's by going with the crowd, man,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: You only get to one or eight by making crazy picks.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: You don't get to do I like this pick because
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: the crowd is doing. I like this pick. I'll tell
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: you why, because cousins. It is vastly underrated. He's having
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: a fantastic season and no one is paying attention to it.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: He's playing really well now. The Vikings, though, have played
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: three backup quarterbacks so far this year, so that does
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: sort of like they played Josh Allen, who's technically backup
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Um they played obviously, they played another team as a backup,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: like they played like so so quarterbacks. But um, I
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: think the Vikings are really good. I think Cousins is
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: very undervalued. He's probably a great tase. He's been worth
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: every single cent. It's situational, man. The Saints have won
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: five in a row, are they are? They're never gonna
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: be more overvalued overvalued than they are right now? Yeah, now,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. So, so if they were at home,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: if they were at home, they'd be what a three
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: point favorite or six point favorite? Three? Right, Well, it
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: depends on I'm seeing. I'm seeing they'd be three basically
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: to pick them, right, yeah, okay, they'd be three, okay, yeah, yeah,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: I just that's the Vikings. Therere no no, no, they'd
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: be six six, right, so I thought six that's way
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: too many. Neutral field it would be three. Yeah, that's
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: not too many points. I'm with you here, alright, tucking
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: a parlay inside of our parlay. We should get extra
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: credit if this, if this, if the under and the
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: Vikings win, I feel like we should get extra credit.
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: The bookmakers should just give us like five percent morener money. Well,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: let's they've taken a lot of our money, So it
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: would be nice if to get get some bit back. Um,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: it's like a cash back cash back bonus. So are
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: you guys ready for my last play? I'm up right, okay.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: So college football, here we go. U c l A
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: plus ten at home against Utah. I phil like I
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: have a good pulse in the pack toil of conference.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: I sent a couple of weeks ago. I really liked
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: U c l A plus twenty one at home against
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: Washington if U c l A team who's playing far
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: better right now. Their quarterback got hurt, so they got
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: to put it in Wilton Spait on Saturday, who was
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: originally going to be their quarterback. He's the guy that
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: Chip Kelly wanted to bring into that offense. That's the
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: reason why he transferred over there. Um, and you have
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: seven percent of money right now on Utah minus ten. Utah.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Obviously they're playing well right now. Right They just hammered
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: USC who's very poorly coached. They beat Stanford, team is
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: not very good. They go on the road now to
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: U c l A. This game again, it's gonna be
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: the same problem with Washington. There's gonna be fourty thousand
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: people in seat stadium. There's gonna be no energy in
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: that place that they think they're gonna trounce U c
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: l A. Who's now who's now two and five? U
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: U c l A starting to get things going now.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: They're very physical and defense. Utah's offense to me as
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: they've got a lot better to start running football again.
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: But this is a prime spotting thing to fade a
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: hot team that that the public really loves on the road.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: I actually like this play a lot. And I think, um,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: people are gonna look at last week and say, oh
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: U c l A squeaked by Arizona by a point
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: without Khalil clil mac for Arizona has been playing hurt
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: and the kid that came in, he was a polished
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: kid that actually played very well for you and kept
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: them in that game. So, Um, the thing that worries
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: me Utah has got very good defense. That would be
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: my only worry. And they're very good. They're very good
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: you see by the ways eighteen and nineteen in the
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: red zone so far this season. No Utah has a
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: great defense. Uh, But I just like I just have Jeff,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: it's a ten right now just playing on the DF.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: I just playing on the Rose Wild. I grew up,
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: I went to I've been to what I've been to
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: U fifty games in my life of the Rose Bowl before.
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: I've watched a lot of use a football. Um, this
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: feels it's a night game too. It's path after dark,
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: it's on Friday night. It's just like it's Utah's just
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: they're gonna come out so slow in this game. I
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: haven't feel like, Oh, I like this for a couple
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: of reasons. Number one, I will do anything Jeff has
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: about the patch twelve. Number two, Um, I've just gotten
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: to learn about five minutes ago that our own black
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: Jack Fletcher that U c l A plus ten uh.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: And I guess my question is why is Chip Kelly
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: only playing Wilton Spate if the quarterback he had got hurt,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: but he brought him in to play Wilton space, Like, so,
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: why don't you just play the guy? Well, No, Will
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: and Spake got her in their first game. They brought
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: in Dorrian Thompson Robinson, who's been playing a true freshman.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: He's had his ups and downs. He's played better. They
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: played well against against Cal, but then he got hurt
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: and he got called. He got he got to go
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: back to Willing Space. Willing spaces the fifth year senior.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: So once he got hurt, it's kind of like Walt
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: muzzle play the true freshman. Now. But now that he
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: got you know, now that he's injured, they allows him
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: to play Will in Space who he wanted to play, right,
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: I mean that's he transferred in to play obviously in
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: this offense. And you can you know, Chip can use
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: a pocket pastor. I think people assume that because um,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: you know, he he had you know, he's had these
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: fletic quarterbacks. He can't pocket pastor. He can. Will was,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: by the way, seventeen for two oh four. Uh, good
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: night for him to two touchdowns. Good good, good passer rating.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: And they run the football, by the way, Kelly, at
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: six years rushing, they they be able to really run
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: the football. The last couple of weeks, they're they're getting
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: better there, they're soul again. They're they're getting there. All right, Polly,
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: all right, I'm going back to the pack twelve mm hmm.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be going for short. See Stanford Cardinal minus
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: three and a half over the Washington State Cougs. But now,
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: and I look at this game Um. You know, Washington
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: State came out and they punched Oregon in the mouth
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: twenty seven and nothing. They did the same thing with USC.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: They always really do have good first half. But it
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: seems to me like Washington I get it, they've played
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: well this year. They seem like they just played to
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: hang on and then Oregon started coming back on them
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: and coming back on them. And the other part of
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: this is that there are two games that they have
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: played away from home. They've given up thirty nine points
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: to USC and thirty seven points to Oregon State. This
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: is the way better team at home. Stanford has been
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: banged up all year. Bryce Love is sort of healthy,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: he gets an extra four days. They beat a better
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: USC UM, I mean a decent Arizona State team. They've
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: played Utah, They've had to play Notre Dame. So when
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: you look at their offensive excuse, I mean, they played
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: some pretty good defenses. And I think that David Shaw,
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: KG K J. Costello. They've been playing well and David
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Shaw said after the game that his team is finally
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: starting to gel um. And I think Washington State is
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: gonna get there get it handed to him finally at Stanford,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: And I think This is a giant game too for
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: the Cardinal. Well, we've seen in the Patrol conferences here
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: every time you think you're good, you lose, so that
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: might be something to to watch out, especially in this conference.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you a couple of things that that worry
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: me about Washington State, and then I'll talk about what
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: worries me about Stanford Washington And you mentioned the second
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: half this year, they were they were. They scored twenty
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: one point in the first half against Utah at home,
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: then scored only one touchdown the second half of that
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: game against Oregon, they're up twenty seven, nothing that that
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: or can come all the way back to the twenty.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: And then actually their wide receiver, if you recall, made
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: a great place. He stole a ball from the from
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: the defensive back. The defensive back had the ball for interception,
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: he stole away from him and that eventually led them
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: down to score to make a thirty twenty, which was
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: the final margin. The one that worries me about Stanford
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: is their offensive line is putrid, like really one of
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: the worst in the country this year, which is shocked
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: and considering that it's Stanford and and and that's they
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: built their game on. But I think that Washington State
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: is coming in there off of high obviously, and we've
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: seen the PACTOL conference. We can't trust anyone coming off high.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: We've seen Organ be Washington, Washington, b Organ, Um assuming
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Washingt b Organ. I like, I think, I think you're right, Baul.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Washington's probably in for for a long contest. The other
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: part of this is that Stanford's second and third in
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: the pack in sacks. They d can get to the
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: pastor They've got fifteen sacks this year. And like you said,
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: guy Mike Leach sits there and he waits and hangs on.
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: He was hanging on against Oregon, hanging on for dear life.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go against either of you in the
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: Pack twelve. I mean, in theory I should, just because
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: we went win in eight last week. But uh, you know,
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: you seem to know what you're talking about. It I
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: don't really I can't. I can't stay up for packed
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: twelve games. And by the way, the other I thought
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: the tomahawk chop went away when the Braves got eliminated.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Let's go, chief fans, Come on, what do you mean?
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: Come on? Forever? Like them who started the Tomahawk chop.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: I mean like, I'm done here, have no idea. I
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: don't know. Sometimes I feel like when I played He's
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: got these grievance is that we don't even know to ten.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: I got here thirty people going uh no, no, no,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: please go home. Well they play that. That's the board
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: ops problem at the stadium. Who plays the song. The
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: people don't start that on their own. They wait for
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: the They wait for the song to come on the loudspeakers.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: That's the bravest thing inside. That's an interesting inside info
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: listens are doing with Bob Horner and Dale Murphy. Just
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: take the bills, Hi, come on. I'm thinking, come on,
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: but I'm not going to do it. You know, I
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: wanted to do it fourteen and a half, fourteen and
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: a half at home. I so wanted to do it,
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: but I'm just not gonna do it. Well, however, take
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: the New Year of Giants. Oh my god, time to time.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: I've had these experiences, right, I've had these runs. Earlier
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: in the year, I was on the Colts a lot
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: and they were covering for me, and then you get
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: the feeling like, Okay, it's time to be off the Colts. Right,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: and then I was on the Cardinals, and and then
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: you get the feeling like, Okay, it's time to be
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: off the Cardinals. I had it this week. I still
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: bet the Cardinals on the money line and obviously lost.
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: I've been on the Rescues the past few weeks. I
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: feel like they've reached peak value there in first place,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: high profile wins. These are the games they had Jim
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: Nance and Tony Romo this weekend. Like, now we got
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: the Giants. They're off a bye. They stink there. Oh
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: that's right, they stink. They're in disarray. Uh they This
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: is when Eli steps up and they're gonna cover tonight
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: against the Falcons, and this line is going to move.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: So I want the Giants now as one point home dogs.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: I'll just say this, every time I've bet on a
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: Giant scame, I picked the wrong side of the Giant scame.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: So like I bet them against the Texans at the Texans,
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: the Giants won night game. I bet the Panthers to cover.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: The Giants covered. Um, I bet the Giants in Week one.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: The Giants did not cover. The I bet the Giants
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: a week to the Giants didn't cover, right. Every time
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: I bet the game. Um, I lose, so it might
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: be time to do the opposite, which tonight, by the way,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: I haven't. I haven't placed a bet yet tonight. I
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: want to take the Falcons, but I probably think the Giants,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: so I want. I think the Red Skins anna win
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: this game. So obviously I don't know what I'm talking about.
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: So the Giants will probably win, so I can't hesitoratists pick.
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: It's to pick them right now. It's right now, So
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: it looks like yeah now now, now the Giants haven't
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: played yet this week too, so this could move after tonight. Obviously,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: the Giants win, you'll get Uh, it's right now, New
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: York's getting a point. But you know this could obviously
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: change depending on the game tonight. Yeah, why not playing
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: against Washington. Washington, by the way, has looked atrocious in
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: their last two wins the last couple of weeks. That
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: was a hang on job. Yesterday it was our only
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: it was our only win, and it was a doink.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: Somebody's faded us. They were a doink away from hitting
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: a nine team parlay. I'm sure people fade us. That's
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: not no, no, no, but like a snap in fraction
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: in MND have donk them, but like that was a
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: hold on job. Like I have a feeling this is
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: somewhat of the reason why Andy Reid did part with
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: Alex Smith. That Alex sometimes gets a little Marcus Mariotta
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: where he gets a little scared towards the end of
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: the game. And I'm not saying that you've played with them,
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: but he'll make the safer throw rather than go for
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: go for the throat, you know, go for the jugular,
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: And he just go for the safer throw. Let his
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: defense try to win, and sometimes it's just backfires, and
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: he does it constantly, and like I get it. It
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: was a hang on job, and you're you're getting the
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: Giants had peak value. Hopefully the Giants could cover and
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: then this linking, well I guess not. Maybe if they
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: do get blown out, to'd be better they get blown out.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: Right for the line, I'm regretting everything I just said. Okay, well,
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: the Giants gotta play tonight. I mean, Atlanta's got a poor,
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: poor defense. They gotta put up some points tonight. So
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: you change Are you changing your pick? Are you vetoing
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: your picks? Still going with it? But when you started
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: saying I've been on the wrong side of the giants.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: It reminded me how lucky I've been the last few
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: weeks that I haven't met the giants, and that's why
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: I've been winning. And now I just made a terrible mistake.
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: But We're gonna stick with it because I look at it.
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: I gotta go with what I believe. I wasn't gonna
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: come with Charlotte in college for the alternate pick if
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: you wanted to for Schwartze the Charlotte forty Diners, they
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: play Southern Miss. Yeah, of course they do. Let's just
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: let's just take the giants. Please. Do you want to
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: know a non fact, a little little fact short? Yes? Please?
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: Do you know that Charlotte in Southern miss have two
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: of the top twenty defenses in the FBS according to
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: what metric total defense according to the paul Le Duca
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: Facts and Figures Department UM heading into this weekend, their
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: SNP plus, which is an advanced metric, has them and
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: a hundred whom to ship. I don't know. I was like,
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: I was like, some of the same Charlotte team, the
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: same Charlotte forte as I that I know of the
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: back to middle Tennessee State this week. I know, my
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: colleague I called a Charlotte game last year. I called
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Charlotte f a you here, Yeah, yeah, I called. I've
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: called a couple of college games. And dude, I think
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: the high school team could beat Charlotte because be in
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: the Niners last year, and Charlotte beats Southern Miss this week.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: So I bet you and me, all right, I mean,
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: let's do it. Okay, we're also going to side at
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: the World Series. Somehow, we'll find a way to do
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: it like it. Shouldn't we do? By the way, shouldn't
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: we do? Like what serious? Game one or something? I mean,
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: the serious price is one is minus one forty for
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: the socks, And I don't know, I don't I don't
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: care about the Dodgers. I didn't even look at what
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: their serious prices plus one fift I think, yeah, God,
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: give me the socks. Of course, give me the socks, right.
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: I think Kirshaw will pitch better than he has I
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: guess because they do struggle against lefties. They haven't seen
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: him at all. But you're getting Chris Sale. So game
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: one mhm in Fenway, it's gonna be a little tough.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: So you're taking the Red Sax in game one. Um,
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: probably will. Um. You know these unders and overs, whatever
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: they lay up or you know, the last game against
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee was able to catch with under five and and
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: under with because they're just gonna if they hang and
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: they hang up eight runs, you've got to play the unders.
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: The stand being slug fest slug fests. Both these teams
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: can hit, bottom line, both can hit, but it's playoff
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: baseball and it's just tough to score runs and you
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: and you got to manufacture runs. And we're in the
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: world now where they sit around they wait for the
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: three run homer, and that's what you saw. A Pueek homer,
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: yellow homer, Bellinger homer. Those are all the runs game over. Um, well,
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: what thought that Chris Taylor catch too? You might have
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: more runs by the bruwer. Of course, of course, what
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: do the Red Sox do with with bets in Nationally Park.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: They put him a second base I'm in hearing, Yeah,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: they're gonna put him at second base, they're thinking. Um.
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: That's the other thing is both of these teams they
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: they're not great defensively. Um. We saw that hurt the
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: Dodgers a little bit. In Game six. They couldn't turn
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: a double play. They can turn a lot of things. Um.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: But they're a little bit better defensively than Boston is. Um.
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: But yeah, when they go into the National League Ballpark,
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: it's advantage its advantage Dodgers. Um. But again, you don't
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: win a hundred and eight games for nobody and run
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: through the Yankees and run through the Astros like you did.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, I mean like it's pretty impressive. So like,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: you've got to be realistic. At some point, the Dodgers
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: are going to be fighting up hill. They need to
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: try to steal a couple of young If they can
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: steal a game off sale, then they're right in the
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: middle of it, obviously. Do you know what, It's always
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: seemed unrealistic to me. You just said something really interesting.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: You get a guy on base and you wait for
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: the three run homer, you wait from twig or yellow.
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: That seems unrealistic to me as a strategy, like to
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: just try to win every game by someone hitting a
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: home run. So George Weaver strategy, it was his thing,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: you know, because that's that's tell you that the advance
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: stats tell you that basically burning it out for bunting
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: over the second base, you have less probability of scoring
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: than if you're just trying to get a base hit.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: That's basically what a tiger. I got a buddy that
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: manages in in a ball and double and and he
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: had one of his guys bunt, and you get calls
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: afterwards with the brass and they basically buried them. And
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: then we don't bunt. Um. We're trying to work with
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: ops and homer's and if you look, that is baseball.
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: They're setting records of more home runs and I think
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: this year was the lowest average they've ever had the
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: league at as a league. It's embarrassing to watch. No
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: one can bunt. Besides the pictures, and look what happened.
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: Look what started the whole thing. Manny Machado laid down
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: a bunt. So people are starting to bunt in the
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: playoffs now and oh because now it's an easy hit.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: But during the season you don't want the easy hit.
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: If they would have shifted on me, it hit four hundred.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: It's it's an absolute joke. How these guys just won't
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: just hit the ball the other way. I I don't
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: get it. I don't get it. Back controls out of
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: the way and Schwartz, he's right, Chad. They groom these
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: kids to hit the ball five feet. They do not care.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: They don't want a six four three. They'd rather have
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: a strikeout or a home run. That's baseball. You know
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: what else's baseball? A nine team parlay nine players. Wow,
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: well done, nineteen parlay. Here we go, boys, these are
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: our picks. Are you ready? Are you ready? Detroit minus
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: two and a half against Seattle Denver plus ten. There's
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes in the Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay plus
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: nine against the undefeated Los Angeles Rams. Cleveland plus eight
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: and a half against his first Steamers up and by
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: New Orleans and Minnesota, two teams that can light it
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: up like no other teams in the NFL. Under fifty two.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: Minnesota at home. They're struggling every week, and we're taking
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: him against the New Orleans Seats and we're five in
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: a row U c l A. They don't even know
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: who's playing quarterback, but we're taking them at plus ten.
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: Stanford minus me and a half versus Washington State, the
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: New York Giants one in five against the first place
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: Washington Redskins at home. We're taking the Giants, even though
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: we've lost every single bet replaced in the Giants. Literally,
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: who's gonna go back to sleep now? I'm gonna go
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: to the gym after. That's unbelievable. Oh my god. These
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: are trash pigs. Fellas. Listen, this has been the Favorites
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: from the Action Network. We have shows every Monday, Wednesday
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: and Friday. Check out our website at Action Network dot com.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: Go to a download our app. If you bet, our parlay,
• 49:42
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• 49:46
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• 49:51
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• 49:54
  Speaker 1: Please download, subscribe, rate review. You can listen to us
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: over to Apple Podcasts Radio dot com. Jeff Sports, Paul Duka,
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: thank to you seeing you on Wednesday when I talked
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: to Scooch