Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / What group is the 'sleeping giant' in the midterms 'Independents,' Veteran says

Transcript

What group is the 'sleeping giant' in the midterms 'Independents,' Veteran says · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: So what are voters going to do about it? Joining us,
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  Speaker 1: publisher of The Bulwark and host of the Focus Group podcast,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Sarah Longwell, staff writer at The Atlantic and MSNOW contributor,
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  Speaker 1: McKay Coppins, and founder and CEO of Independent Veterans of
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: America and host of the Independent Americans podcast, Paul Rykoff.
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  Speaker 2: Sarah, you've got a new book out. We're going to
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  Speaker 2: talk all.
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  Speaker 1: About it in just a moment, How to Eat an Elephant,
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  Speaker 1: One Voter at a Time. There's perhaps nobody better out
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  Speaker 1: there right now to talk about voters and how they
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  Speaker 1: feel And how things have changed than you, because you've
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  Speaker 1: been conducting focus groups. What is it, every week now
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  Speaker 1: since Donald Trump was elected in 2016?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been about eight years and I do multiple
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  Speaker 3: groups a week now.
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  Speaker 1: Wow. So tell me, what are they saying? So, you know.
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  Speaker 3: What's interesting, having done them for so long, is for
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  Speaker 3: the first time with Republican voters, I hear anger at
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  Speaker 3: Donald Trump. Right after January 6th, there was some sort
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  Speaker 3: of hands up sadness or disappointment. But obviously people came
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: back to him. They came back to him primarily for
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  Speaker 3: economic reasons. I listened to going into the 2024 election.
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  Speaker 3: Voter after voter, people who had voted for Joe Biden
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  Speaker 3: but were now leaning toward Donald Trump was 100 percent
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  Speaker 3: because of the economy, because Trump was promising to lower prices.
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  Speaker 2: And obviously he hasn't done that.
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  Speaker 3: And I think that voters were I've watched them sort
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  Speaker 3: of steadily go from.
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  Speaker 2: Hey, Rome wasn't built in a day.
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  Speaker 3: Let's give them some time to be increasingly frustrated that,
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  Speaker 3: you know, prices weren't going down at the grocery store.
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  Speaker 2: Inflation was still.
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  Speaker 3: High to then outright outrage at the Iran war and
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  Speaker 3: what it is doing to gas prices. I mean, the
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  Speaker 3: reason that Donald Trump is going to so many of
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  Speaker 3: those places is because they are suddenly in play. I delegation,
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  Speaker 3: the Republicans in Iowa, they are in a flat panic
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  Speaker 3: about what diesel prices mean for their farmers. And the
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  Speaker 3: farmers were already getting crushed by the tariffs. And so
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  Speaker 3: Donald Trump, I can't remember what his approval rating is there,
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  Speaker 3: but it is something very much under 50 percent.
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  Speaker 2: And so Republicans are panicking all over the place.
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  Speaker 1: So it's I don't think it's so simple to say
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  Speaker 1: that Donald Trump showing up is a net negative because
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  Speaker 1: and there are there are candidates that say, yes, it
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  Speaker 1: is a negative for me, especially in the competitive places.
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  Speaker 1: But isn't part of the strategy couldn't part of the
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  Speaker 1: strategy be that if Donald Trump shows up, Sarah, that
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  Speaker 1: you're going to motivate some of the the more, I
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  Speaker 1: don't know, not hesitant, but maybe lazier Trump supporters to
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  Speaker 1: show up and get out there and vote on a
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  Speaker 1: ballot that he's not on.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, look, the reason this is happening is it Anybody
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  Speaker 3: who is conducting focus groups knows that one of the
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  Speaker 3: biggest problems for Republicans is that they're going to have
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  Speaker 3: a turnout problem. Depressed voters equal depressed turnout. And Trump
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  Speaker 3: is hoping that in places like Kansas, that is suddenly
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  Speaker 3: getting looking a little scary for them, or Nebraska that
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  Speaker 3: is suddenly looking a little scary for them, that he
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  Speaker 3: can go and sort of re-energize people, cause them to
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  Speaker 3: lock back in people who are his faithful, because those
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  Speaker 3: are pretty red states. And so they have A lot
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  Speaker 3: of MAGA faithful in those states. And he's thinking, man,
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  Speaker 3: maybe I could get them.
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  Speaker 2: To turn out. Here's the problem with that.
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  Speaker 3: You know, for people who are the Trump boat people,
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  Speaker 3: you know, you'd see those Trump boat.
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  Speaker 2: Parades or the Trump RV parades.
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  Speaker 3: Those people are not being harmed or I mean, they're
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  Speaker 3: being harmed, but it is if they don't feel it
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  Speaker 3: as much the negative economy.
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  Speaker 2: As these rural voters are. who are getting crushed by
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  Speaker 2: this stuff.
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  Speaker 3: And so I think part of what is going to
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  Speaker 3: be a dynamic in this particular election is that the
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  Speaker 3: people who normally turn out at the highest rates for Trump,
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  Speaker 3: these rural voters, these are the people where the AI
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  Speaker 3: data centers are being built in their backyards. These are
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  Speaker 3: the people who are finding gas prices to make it
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  Speaker 3: prohibitive for them, who notice every time ground beef goes
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  Speaker 3: up at the grocery store. Those are the people that
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  Speaker 3: I actually think stay home in this election.
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  Speaker 2: And that is what, you know, for a wave to happen,
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  Speaker 2: you need the wave to crest.
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  Speaker 4: Right.
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  Speaker 2: And that's Democratic voters. There's also an undertow.
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  Speaker 3: And that undertow is what is pulling Republican voters away
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  Speaker 3: from this president and this administration.
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  Speaker 2: And that is the panic point.
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  Speaker 1: It's what gives the wave power. Paul, it is incredible
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  Speaker 1: to talk about Nebraska and Kansas. Nebraska and Kansas, I've
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  Speaker 1: just named it something new. I mean, I think if
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  Speaker 1: you had said to me 10 years ago, five years ago,
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  Speaker 1: a year ago, that we would be sitting here having
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  Speaker 1: a serious conversation about Democrats. Making gains in those two states,
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  Speaker 1: not just that one small district in Nebraska, but those
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  Speaker 1: two states. I would I would say, you know, I.
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  Speaker 2: Would first ask what the hell happened.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: What happened?
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  Speaker 5: I think Trump has bottomed out. We'll see if it
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  Speaker 5: goes lower. I think, you know, Sarah is touching on
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  Speaker 5: an important point. People are very, very furious with Trump,
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  Speaker 5: especially on the Iran war. especially on prices on diesel
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  Speaker 5: and gas. Nebraska is really interesting because what you have
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  Speaker 5: to do is you have to get people not just
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  Speaker 5: to vote against Trump, but vote for your person.
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  Speaker 4: Right.
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  Speaker 5: And in Nebraska, you've got an independent. You've got Dan
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  Speaker 5: Osborne running against an incumbent, Pete Ricketts, who's a rich guy.
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  Speaker 5: He's going to brand him as out of touch. Now,
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  Speaker 5: can Trump say, hey, I know you love me, but
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  Speaker 5: vote for Ricketts.
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  Speaker 2: We'll see.
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  Speaker 5: Can the Democrats actually come to the polls and vote
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  Speaker 5: for an independent? We'll see. I think the ground game
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  Speaker 5: is absolutely essential in the sleeping giant and all of this.
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  Speaker 5: is independents who haven't voted in a lot of the
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  Speaker 5: primaries they've been sitting on the sidelines waiting and they
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  Speaker 5: are showing huge pushback on trump where he's got like
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  Speaker 5: single digit approval especially on the iran war and i'm
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  Speaker 5: going to keep saying this i think the opportunity for
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  Speaker 5: anybody running against trump is what are you going to
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  Speaker 5: do about iran are you going to pull us out
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  Speaker 5: of iran how are you going to do it how
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  Speaker 5: are you going to be better than we've currently got
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  Speaker 5: because that's what americans want to hear Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: They definitely want to hear a plan, an idea. What
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  Speaker 1: they got from the speaker yesterday, McKay, Speaker Mike Johnson,
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  Speaker 1: when he was on CNBC, was what are you going
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  Speaker 1: to do the next two years if you're able to
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  Speaker 1: maintain the majority? He said they're going to do exactly
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  Speaker 1: the same thing they've been doing. How is that a
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  Speaker 1: winning message?
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  Speaker 4: I don't think it is a winning message, but it
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  Speaker 4: is of a piece with the overall Republican messaging strategy
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  Speaker 4: that Of the last several months, which I think I've
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  Speaker 4: said this before on your show, Katie, I really think
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  Speaker 4: a lot of this is aimed more at Donald Trump himself.
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  Speaker 4: and keeping him happy than it is at actually boosting
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  Speaker 4: the electoral prospects of Republican candidates throughout the country. I mean,
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  Speaker 4: Politico had a good piece just recently about all these
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  Speaker 4: Republican campaigns throughout the country that are basically begging the
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  Speaker 4: White House not to send Trump to their district. They
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  Speaker 4: quoted one GOP operative who said if he was told
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  Speaker 4: that Trump was coming to their district, his candidates would
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  Speaker 4: suddenly get COVID.
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  Speaker 1: Let me read that quote because I have it right
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  Speaker 1: in front of me. It's like you read our minds here, McKay.
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  Speaker 1: These guys are in a pickle, said one national GOP
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  Speaker 1: operative granted anonymity. They may not want Trump to come
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  Speaker 1: to the district, but there are still things that Trump
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  Speaker 1: can do to help. Ask what would happen if Trump
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  Speaker 1: campaigned in a battleground state where their candidates were running.
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  Speaker 1: Another GOP operative working on midterm races said, as you
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  Speaker 1: just mentioned, McKay, I suspect my candidates would come down
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  Speaker 1: with COVID. It's wild. It's wild for a party that
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  Speaker 1: has completely shaped itself around one man.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, well, and this is the consequence of doing that.
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  Speaker 4: But I mean, those of us who have covered Donald
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  Speaker 4: Trump for a long time can say that there is some,
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  Speaker 4: there's something psychological at work here, right? Donald Trump's happy place,
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  Speaker 4: his safe space is at a MAGA rally, right? In
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  Speaker 4: front of thousands of adoring fans where he gets to
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  Speaker 4: riff and rant and and do his whole thing to
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  Speaker 4: an adoring audience. And we now have this situation where
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  Speaker 4: the White House is kind of going around the country
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  Speaker 4: asking Republicans, even in deep red states, like, hey, can
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  Speaker 4: we send Trump to you? It's almost like, you know,
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  Speaker 4: when you have like an older relative who needs constant
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  Speaker 4: care and everybody is sort of managing like who will
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  Speaker 4: take care of them this time. That's what it feels like,
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  Speaker 4: the dynamic right now. And I just, if I, it
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  Speaker 4: is astonishing to me that the Republican Party is still
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  Speaker 4: so focused on keeping Donald Trump happy when they're on
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  Speaker 4: the brink of this kind of cataclysmic midterm outcome.
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  Speaker 1: Let me play a little bit of Donald Trump trying
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  Speaker 1: to help Republicans in the midterms. Let's play it.
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  Speaker 6: The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran,
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  Speaker 6: they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about
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  Speaker 6: American financial situation. I don't think about anybody. If the
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  Speaker 6: Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate,
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  Speaker 6: both of them. I will issue a dividend to every
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  Speaker 6: adult citizen in the United States.
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  Speaker 1: Of America for $ 5, 000.
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  Speaker 4: Mr.
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  Speaker 5: President, tell us why the world should not be concerned
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  Speaker 5: about AI, why there shouldn't be guardrails.
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  Speaker 2: Because we have people that love our country and love.
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  Speaker 6: The world a lot.
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  Speaker 2: But it requires more than love, doesn't it, sir?
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  Speaker 6: No, it requires this. I'm going out because nobody's selling it.
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  Speaker 6: We're doing an extremely poor job of promotion. and an
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  Speaker 6: extremely great job of running the country.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, and that does sum it up, an extremely
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  Speaker 1: poor job of promotion, although Americans don't think he's doing
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  Speaker 1: a great job at running the country either. Are voters
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  Speaker 1: listening to him any longer? Do they hear him talking
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  Speaker 1: about AI, rebranding it superintelligence, talking about love, Sarah? Do
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  Speaker 1: they hear him promising these quote-unquote dividends? Do they buy it?
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  Speaker 2: They don't buy it.
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  Speaker 3: I had a voter in a group the other day
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  Speaker 3: who said, you know, he told me we were going
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: to get a doge check. He said we were going
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: to get tariff dividends. And now he's promising $ 5, 000 if
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: Republican wins.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: This guy owes me $ 22, 200.
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: You know, she was sort of tracking all of his
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: promises and noting. that none of them were coming to fruition, right?
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  Speaker 3: And this is, Donald Trump is starting to have, and
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  Speaker 3: this is for the first time with his own voters,
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  Speaker 3: a real credibility problem. He is making a lot of
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  Speaker 3: wild promises that he is not, you know, making good on.
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  Speaker 3: He continues to say that the Iran war is over
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  Speaker 3: and that we have won it when voters can clearly
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  Speaker 3: see that.
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  Speaker 2: That is not the case. And that is on top
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: of the fact.
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  Speaker 3: That he has broken two of his most signature campaign promises,
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  Speaker 3: which was that he was going to lower costs and
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  Speaker 3: he wasn't going to get into any more stupid wars.
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  Speaker 3: And like and then trailing that, he also said he
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: was going to be very transparent, which people do not
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: feel like he is. They don't didn't get the Epstein
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: files like they're not even getting the candy that they
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: wanted from Donald Trump. And so there's just an enormous
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: amount of deep frustration with him. And for the first
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: time Because I've always been pretty careful about this because
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: a lot of times what people want to say, the
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: bottom is falling out. People are walking away and I'm like,
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I listen to voters and they're still
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: kind of hanging in there. For the first time, I
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: would say people are using phrases like I was duped
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: or I was a bill of goods. And that is
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: a different thing.
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: Hey, it's Rachel.
• 11:16
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• 11:17
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• 11:33
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• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Thanks.