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What does a Super El Niño mean for winter · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Could we get extreme weather? Storms? Floods? Or even heavy
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: snow this winter?
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: As summer gives way to autumn, people start asking us
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: the same questions. How bad could the weather get? When
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: might we see the first snow? And just how cold
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: would it be? This year though, there's an extra.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Factor in the mix. El Niño.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: It could make this autumn and winter a little bit
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  Speaker 2: more interesting, at least from a weather perspective.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: So what is El Niño? How could it affect the
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: UK's weather?
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  Speaker 2: And is it something any of us should actually be
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: paying attention to? Let's get into some of the biggest questions. Well,
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: the first thing to say is that El Niño isn't
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: a storm system. It's not going to bring sudden or
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: noticeable impacts to any one place. Instead, it's a natural
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: climate pattern that develops in the tropical Pacific Ocean. sea
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: temperatures rise, winds change direction and that can.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Influence weather around the world.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: It occurs every two to seven years and that extra
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: warmth generated in the Pacific is being released into the
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: atmosphere where it can influence weather patterns all over the
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: world bringing droughts, floods, heat waves and wildfires to different areas.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: Over the last few months, El Niño has been strengthening,
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: with sea temperatures rising into uncharted territory. Scientists predict that
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: it will most likely be a historic event, the.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Strongest ever recorded in the modern era.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: And because of this, you may have even heard people
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: calling it a Super El Niño, or even a Godzilla
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: El Niño. Well, the name El Niño comes from Spanish
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: and means little boy or the Christ child. South American
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: fishermen and sailors in Peru and Ecuador first used the
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  Speaker 2: term centuries ago when they noticed unusually warm waters appearing
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: along the Pacific coast around December. Those warmer waters often
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: meant fewer fish affecting their catches. And because the phenomenon
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: tended to arrive around Christmas, it became known as El Niño.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: El Niño normally starts to develop in the late northern
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  Speaker 2: hemisphere spring and can continue to strengthen through the summer
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: and autumn. This El Niño is expected to reach its
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  Speaker 2: peak in November or December and will last well into 2027.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: We start to see the impacts of El Niño in
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  Speaker 2: some parts of the world during the summer, such as
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  Speaker 2: the reduction in Atlantic hurricanes, the increase in Pacific hurricanes
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  Speaker 2: and wildfires in Southeast Asia. But further away from the
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: tropical Pacific, impacts may not be felt until the northern
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: hemisphere autumn or winter. It's looking likely that El Niño
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  Speaker 2: will affect the weather in the UK. The Met Office
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: says that from around November onwards, there's an increased chance
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: of stormier conditions affecting the UK. Wetter and windier weather
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: could increase the risk of flooding and potential disruption or
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: damage from strong winds. Chances are that it will also
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  Speaker 2: be milder than normal, at least for the first half
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  Speaker 2: of winter. It's too far away to know what will
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: happen during the rest of winter, but during past El
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: Niño events, the UK has often been colder than average,
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: and this could therefore increase the chances of frosts and snow,
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: but it's far from certain this will actually happen this year. So,
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: does El Niño mean we're more likely to see snow
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: on Christmas Day?
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  Speaker 1: Unfortunately, it's still too early to say.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: What we do know is is that of the three
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  Speaker 2: strongest El Niño events since 1900, only one in 1982-83
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: brought significant snowfall to the UK. So while El Niño
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: can influence weather patterns around the world, it doesn't automatically
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: mean a white Christmas is on the way. El Niño
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: impacts to the UK aren't as clear-cut as other parts
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  Speaker 2: of the world, so it was really difficult to assess
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: how El Niño has affected the UK before. This is
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  Speaker 2: because the UK is located quite a long way from
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  Speaker 2: the tropical Pacific, and there are many other weather patterns
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: that influence our weather in the autumn and winter. However,
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: we've looked at storminess in the UK during the last
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  Speaker 2: two strong El Niños in 2023-24, and 2015-16. And we
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  Speaker 2: noted that we saw more named storms, so wet and
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  Speaker 2: windy weather, that was severe enough to bring significant impacts
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  Speaker 2: in these two years than any other year since we
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  Speaker 2: started naming storms in 2015. And since 2000, looking at snowfall,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: less than half of the El Nino years brought any
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  Speaker 2: significant snow to the UK. El Niño is likely to
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  Speaker 2: last into spring next year before it weakens during the summer.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: While there will be lots of obvious impacts in certain
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: areas of the world, One of the largest global impacts
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: is actually on the global average temperature. If you think
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: of the warming seas in the Pacific Ocean like a radiator,
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: when it heats up, the atmosphere warms up and it
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  Speaker 2: essentially boosts the global average temperature. Estimates are that they
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: can add 0.2 degrees Celsius of extra heat over the year.
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  Speaker 2: Scientists therefore predict that 2027 will be the hottest year
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  Speaker 2: on record, exceeding the previous hottest year of 2024. which
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  Speaker 2: also happened to be the last time we had a
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  Speaker 2: very strong El Nino. More regionally, with an increase in
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: rainfall and floods in some areas and droughts in others,
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  Speaker 2: agriculture will be impacted, leading to a decline in global
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  Speaker 2: food supplies. The UN's World Food Programme have already warned
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  Speaker 2: that El Nino will sharply increase hunger in more vulnerable
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  Speaker 2: parts of the world by the end of 2027. Higher
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  Speaker 2: food insecurity will also mean higher prices in our supermarkets.
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  Speaker 2: With a likely increase in stormy weather and the potential
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  Speaker 2: increase in impacts from wind, rain and flooding, we should
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: keep a closer eye on the weather forecasts and be
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: prepared to take action if the Met Office issue any
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  Speaker 2: severe weather warnings. The UK government have also said that
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  Speaker 2: households should stock up on some food supplies to prepare
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  Speaker 2: for extreme weather. The idea being that if you are
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  Speaker 2: impacted by severe weather and you have some food supplies,
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  Speaker 2: it can keep you going for a while longer before
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  Speaker 2: the emergency services can get to you. And you're going
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  Speaker 2: to be a lot better off than if you haven't
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  Speaker 2: got supplies.
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  Speaker 1: So there you have it.
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  Speaker 2: El Niño is continuing to strengthen and it's likely to
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  Speaker 2: be the biggest and living memory. While it won't hit
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  Speaker 2: as a sudden storm or event, it shifts the odds
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  Speaker 2: for more extreme weather around the world. Impacts in the
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: UK will be felt later this autumn and through the
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: winter with a greater chance of stormier weather at times. Globally,
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  Speaker 2: it will lead to higher average global temperatures, adding more
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  Speaker 2: heat on top of our already warming climate. And if
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  Speaker 2: there's any other weather subjects that you'd like us to
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  Speaker 2: tackle next, let us know in the comments.