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Betting the Heisman: Favorites, Frauds & Hidden Gems · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:03
Hello everybody, welcome to Targeting Winners Heisman Trophy
0:07
preview. Looking ahead, we're about 5 or
0:10
6 months away from college football, but we're still going
0:13
to talk about it. We're still going to play some
0:14
bets. Peter, how is El Playo de
0:18
Mexico? I've only got 2 weeks left on an
0:21
old playo day Michigan, so yeah, I'm enjoying the last last bit
0:25
of it as much as I can and the warm weather before I go back up
0:27
there and freeze my ass off. So yeah, all.
0:29
Right, Darren, Just sleep deprived.
0:31
Darren, how are you? You awake?
0:34
Wake up. I'm awake.
0:36
I just wanted you, Tim. You shared a comment with one of
0:38
our listeners who said that Pete and I had very drab backgrounds
0:42
on the last show. So I just want you to know I'm
0:45
back in the, you know, in the room, my daughter's home
0:49
watching the puppy. So Pete, hang a a picture or
0:52
something, draw a chalk outline of a murdered drug Lord.
0:55
I'll just put something up there so that people know you're.
0:58
Like, yeah, that was my guy Eddie from Orange City.
1:05
I'll get a friend picture of Eddie.
1:06
I'll put it in my wall behind me.
1:07
So all. Right.
1:09
So in two weeks, Eddie Pete will have something in his
1:12
background. He's not in prison.
1:14
He's he's doing. Our All right, well, we did
1:20
national championship last time. We're doing a Heisman this time,
1:22
of course, but there was an event last week, so we may have
1:27
a lean for national championship.
1:29
We got to go back a little bit. If you're watching us on
1:32
YouTube, thanks. Don't forget to like and
1:33
subscribe. But Alabama has historically
1:37
always won a national championship after Tiger Woods
1:39
is involved in a car accident. So do with that information,
1:43
with what you will, We now have a lean towards Alabama.
1:45
We can't argue the science. So.
1:49
Can we can we confirm nor deny that his ex-wife was chasing him
1:53
with a Golf Club this time? Are we sure?
1:55
Yes. No.
1:56
Maybe. No, I think she's she's counting
1:59
her money somewhere so I'm sure she's fine.
2:03
I did see somebody post on Twitter that of all people,
2:05
Tiger Woods should know the importance of having a good
2:07
driver. Yes, we should.
2:09
Yeah. OK.
2:12
A man can't afford a driver too. Why is he driving himself?
2:15
He says it's a privacy issue. A privacy issue?
2:22
Mobsters drive around with private drivers.
2:24
Yeah, because getting in car accidents every 18 months is
2:27
really good way to stay private, but.
2:29
Yeah, just. Get the help you need bro.
2:33
Get back on the golf course, take care of yourself and hire a
2:36
driver. You're a driver, Jesus.
2:39
All right, well, boys, it's Heisman time.
2:43
Let's get started. Darren, what are some of your
2:45
thoughts going into the air? Yeah, so, you know, we, we
2:48
talked about the national championship market 2 weeks ago
2:50
and I asked you guys, you know what, what is what is the main
2:54
factor you guys look at before you start digging a little bit
2:56
deeper into if you want to bet in this market, just look at a
3:00
little past Heisman history. 21 of the last 25 winners have been
3:04
quarterbacks. The fewest amount of wins for
3:07
any Heisman winner in the last 25 years has been 9.
3:10
So I guess my question to you guys, do you just kind of look
3:13
at the odds board, cross off anybody in the top 20 or 30
3:17
that's not AQB, figure out what their win total is and be like,
3:21
OK, I'm going to start with this list and break it down from
3:24
there? Or is there something else that
3:27
that you guys do 'cause I mean, we don't.
3:30
We have had two wide receivers win it in the last six years,
3:32
but we haven't had a running back since 2015, I think when
3:35
when Derrick Henry won it. And you know, I just took a
3:38
quick peek at the board. There's not a running back in
3:40
like the top 30. And honestly, even if there was
3:43
after the year Aston Genti had two years ago, I mean, video
3:47
game numbers, Boise State gets a buy in the playoff and that and
3:50
he doesn't win. Even if there was a running back
3:53
that had a decent shot, I don't know why you would even bet one.
3:56
But you know, Pete, I'll start with you.
3:58
Anything else you look at besides QB?
4:01
Lots of wins or is that pretty much your starting point?
4:04
I mean, you hit the, you hit the major factors #1A quarterback's
4:07
going to win. This has become the annual
4:08
quarterback award. I would not go anywhere but
4:11
quarterback unless there was some absolute superstar and it
4:14
was a down year across the board for quarterbacks somehow, which
4:17
is not the case here. So, yeah, wins are important,
4:21
but I also think just publicity being out there is important.
4:25
The team's got to be visible. The team's got to be in big
4:29
games. The team's got to be on TV.
4:32
You mentioned the wins, but they, they, this is a you can't
4:34
be on a, you can't be on a team that's not getting on
4:37
television. You can't be on a team that's
4:38
not getting pub that will hurt you as well.
4:41
So that is a big factor. But yeah, I think you hit the
4:45
major ones. It's got to be somebody who, who
4:48
people know, right? And if if it's somebody who's
4:50
just playing out in the West, I mean, West Coast hurts, which is
4:53
we're going to talk about our selections here and where that
4:56
could be a little bit issue, maybe not so much for, well, the
4:58
one pick we're going to talk about.
5:00
But the West Coast can be a bit of a problem with guys out there
5:04
simply because they're not getting the same visibility as
5:07
guys out East. So that could be an issue as
5:09
well. Schedule comes into play,
5:11
certainly because that's where some of the winds factor in.
5:14
But yeah, it's got to be somebody who, I mean, certainly
5:17
that visibility can hurt you as well.
5:19
I'm looking at some people like Arch last year and people like
5:22
that who immediately, you know, disappeared off the map.
5:25
So, but yeah, those, I think those are the major factors.
5:30
Tim, what about you? I mean, besides crossing off
5:33
everybody representing the University of Miami and going
5:35
from there, I mean. Is there right Yeah, obviously I
5:37
yeah, that that goes without saying no, we're going to talk
5:40
about one of those guys here. I learned the hard way a couple
5:45
years ago I had the right team but the wrong player.
5:47
I think the voters are attracted by the big shiny, flashy thing.
5:51
So if you if there's a player, a non quarterback that does more
5:55
than one thing very, very well, that could be something we'll
5:59
talk about. You know, I had should dwar
6:02
Sanders couple years ago. It was his teammate, you know,
6:05
'cause he played cornerback, he played receiver, he returned
6:07
kicks. So they will, if it's not a
6:11
quarterback, it's got to be somebody flashy.
6:13
Again, I'd stay away from the running back 'cause they're not
6:15
flashy really. I mean they run fast and you
6:18
know, Barry Sanders like it have to be in order to win.
6:21
And there's only one Barry Sanders.
6:22
So I'm staying away from running backs, but I look for flashy
6:27
receivers for the old standard quarterback.
6:30
I don't know about you guys, but that's the safe bet for me.
6:33
Yeah, pretty much what you guys said.
6:34
The one thing I will say and and Pete did mention the schedule.
6:38
I kind of look and see like who's got like the big games in
6:43
November. You know, you've got around 900
6:47
people voting on this thing. God knows what the hell they're
6:50
thinking about half the time. But it seems to me that some of
6:53
these people would be more likely to remember QB, say,
6:58
winning a big home game that gets his team into the compass
7:00
championship or then and and pulls an upset on the road in
7:05
November. Maybe more than they would say,
7:08
you know, like this week one game, Texas and Ohio State.
7:12
All right, well, it's non conference, still a gigantic
7:14
game, but week 12 good defenses. Maybe the stats aren't there for
7:19
even the winning quarterback. So I'm looking QB lots wins, but
7:24
I want to see some big games in November because I think that's
7:26
when that's kind of when you get an idea of.
7:32
Right, all right, so should we jump right into it?
7:37
Let's do. It Let's do it.
7:38
Let's start. Everybody on the.
7:41
OK, go ahead. Oh no, we'll get to it as we as
7:44
we go. But I, I just, I guess that's I
7:47
tried to eliminate as much of these people and come up with
7:49
like somewhat valid reasons as to why I'm eliminating these
7:52
people into that as we as. We go through the guys.
7:58
But yeah, let's start with the receivers because there are two
8:01
that can certainly bring this trophy home.
8:05
Yeah, here's one from the aforementioned Miami Hurricanes.
8:08
Malachi, Tony, Mr. Swiss Army Knife.
8:12
He used the flashy 1. He I think he returns punts.
8:14
I don't think he returns kick offs.
8:16
He receives. He has receiving stats, rushing
8:18
stats that he I think he had two passing touchdowns last year.
8:22
So he even does that. That's not even on here.
8:24
So this is one thing that could be a possible play, not for me,
8:28
but I know how you guys think about Mr. Tony.
8:33
Yeah, From my side, he's going to need quarterback play, right?
8:36
It's going to be linked to how the quarterback plays and
8:38
getting him the ball. But still, it can't be 1
8:41
dimensional. It can't be even if he has a
8:43
monster year as a receiver, it's still not going to get him the
8:45
Heisman, right? He's got to do something else.
8:47
He would have to have a monster year as a returner.
8:50
Like to your point earlier, Tim, if you're going to win and
8:52
you're not a quarterback, you've got to be a multi dimensional
8:55
player like usually offense and defense.
8:58
But if you're not that, then you've got to be one of these
9:00
guys that has a potential like big time returner in the NFL
9:04
potentially in the future, like that kind of guy.
9:06
So if he can do that and show that, I mean, he'll get, I mean,
9:09
because those plays are flashy. Those plays get you on ESPN, All
9:13
right. Those are the things that you
9:14
know, will capture some voters. So you want to see those
9:16
returns. So it's possible, but I don't
9:18
know if he's going to do enough to really drive himself above
9:23
the QBs on this list. But interesting.
9:25
He'll be a great player this year for sure, Aaron.
9:28
Yeah, I, I think those are odd. I I thought it was like +3000.
9:33
Yeah, I just noticed that. Oh.
9:34
OK, I was gonna say one of the things I was gonna say we were
9:37
looking at the two receivers. I like him a lot better because
9:39
his number is a lot higher. But the one thing I do like
9:42
about him over Jeremiah Smith, you see, they're on the right
9:46
side, Tim. So I was, I was awesome putting
9:47
that up there. I mean, the 23 carries, I could
9:51
see him maybe having 35 to 40 carries this year.
9:54
Remember, they're losing 4 people on that offensive line.
9:57
And until that unit gels, if it ever does, I mean that dude's
10:01
going to be the fastest player on the field in a lot of games
10:04
this year. So, you know, we love us some
10:06
some jet sweeps and end of rounds.
10:08
But you know he does. He has those receiving stats.
10:12
Assuming Mensa lives up to the billing and gets another 5-6
10:16
rushing touchdowns, I like him better than Jeremiah Smith
10:20
because of that run factor and special teams play that he gives
10:23
Miami. But the one thing that that
10:26
leads me away from him and Jeremiah Smith, he will talk
10:29
about in a minute. If you looked at that odds board
10:31
that Tim had up earlier, I don't know these two receivers on
10:34
there and that's no thank you. In the Top 14.
10:38
So are their quarterbacks. So if you're a voter, yeah.
10:43
Did the votes split? You say, oh, well, Julian Sayin
10:46
had a great year. Well, yeah, That's because
10:47
Jeremiah Smith caught everything thrown at him.
10:49
Well, Jeremiah Smith had, you know, all these receptions and
10:52
19 touchdowns. Well, yeah, that's because
10:54
Julian Sayin had a great year. You can say the same thing about
10:56
Darian, Manson, Malachi, Tony. So those four guys I kind of
11:00
eliminated right off the bat because I could see a scenario,
11:04
like I said, with all the people voting.
11:06
Some people are going to lead the quarterback, other people
11:08
are going to lead the wide receiver.
11:10
And I think when you start tallying all those votes that
11:12
that kind of negates any gains that they could have when when
11:15
they tally these things. So I, I kind of kicked off all
11:19
four of those guys. But if I had to choose a non QB
11:22
I would choose Malachi Tony. And he thought, Peter.
11:27
Well no, I mean I agree. I think the issue is when you
11:29
have two players back caliber on the same team, especially on the
11:33
offense, and 1 is a quarterback and the other is a skilled
11:35
position player and they rely on each other so much more than
11:39
likely that vote is going. To be be split.
11:41
Right. And that's going to be an issue
11:42
if they both have a monster year.
11:44
It's hard to argue who is driving one more clearly unless
11:48
the quarterback is a monster year for every, you know, and
11:50
they're driving everybody fine. But yeah, I think it's going to
11:53
be an issue for, for, for, obviously for for this player,
11:56
but also for the next one we're going to talk about here, so.
11:59
I'll just put that up from one of my favorite teams to hate to
12:02
your favorite team to hate. Jeremiah Smith, he will let you
12:07
go first on this one. And we'll send over to Darren.
12:10
Yeah. Right.
12:12
I mean, Darren, Darren covered it with the two players and one
12:14
team, right with with saying here it's going to be a going to
12:18
be an issue. I mean, obviously A-Team, I love
12:20
to hate. I'm not going to hate on
12:22
Jeremiah Smith. He's a fantastic player.
12:24
He's going to be a really good player in the NFL.
12:27
He might be the best player in America, period.
12:30
Like the best college football player, period.
12:32
He's an amazing talent. That said, I think he's going to
12:37
win the Heisman right sayings there and I just think it's a
12:39
quarterback once again, we talked about it before it leans
12:42
toward quarterback. So I just he can have an amazing
12:44
year and you know, be a top five pick for sure in the draft and
12:49
still he's not he's not going to win the Heisman.
12:51
So I just don't I don't I don't see that happening, although I
12:56
hope he's an amazing year. It's going to hurt Michigan, but
12:58
I do I do think he will. You know, it wouldn't bother me
13:02
to see him when the Heisman. I can hate Ohio State all day
13:05
long, but something like this like a single player of that
13:09
caliber winning the Heisman, I could be happy for the guy.
13:13
So I I would not mind seeing that.
13:15
I just, I just can't. I just don't see it happening
13:17
with saying on the team as well. All right, Darren.
13:20
Yeah. And and one of the things we
13:21
talked about when we were breaking down Ohio State on the
13:23
national championship show, you know, Julian's saying is one of
13:27
quite a few quarterbacks that that we're looking to see some
13:31
improvement this upcoming season.
13:33
And a lot of these guys, quarterbacks I'm talking about
13:36
play great against teams that they should play great against.
13:39
But you saw at the end of the season mustard up 10 points
13:43
against Indiana in the Big 10 title game.
13:46
I mean, that pick 6 for Miami, I mean, dude, never even saw this
13:51
quarterback comment is right in jumped over the pass Thank you.
13:54
Like was meant to go to that guy all along.
13:56
If he doesn't improve his play, that's going to hurt Jeremiah
13:59
Smith, you know, and much like Malachi, Tony's got Mark
14:02
Fletcher in the backfield, Jeremiah Smith got Bo Jackson
14:04
could potentially take away some touchdowns from from him.
14:07
So yeah, I agree with Pete that I don't think he's gonna win
14:12
again. I would I would prefer Tony over
14:15
him, but I I'm not touching either receiver here.
14:19
All right, all right, from teams we hate to a team that one of us
14:23
roots for. Oddly enough, there's no Florida
14:24
State players on this show today, but we do have one from
14:28
the fighting Marcus Freeman's Darren to Floor 0 CJ Carr.
14:34
Yeah, OK. At that low a number, I'm not
14:36
taking him to win this. Could he?
14:40
Yeah, certainly. That schedule stinks.
14:44
If he beats Miami, those odds are going to plummet, assuming
14:48
they didn't lose to BYU a few weeks before that.
14:52
I still think this is a run for his team.
14:54
I mean, you're bringing in like 1 receiver that had, you know,
14:58
had over 100 yards is returning. It's basically a whole new
15:02
receiving cord that's going to take some time.
15:05
I think they're a run for his team.
15:07
The more I read about Aneus Williams, I think he he could be
15:10
the real deal. He's not going to be a Jeremiah
15:11
Love, but he does not need to be.
15:15
Yeah, I, I just don't know if, I mean, the winds will be there,
15:17
the good play will be there. But again, he's the favorite at
15:21
some books. I, I, I never want to pick a
15:23
favorite when you know, we're talking about a futures market.
15:29
It wouldn't surprise me if he like comes in second, but I, I
15:33
just don't know if he's gonna put up put up the gaudy stats to
15:37
to get it done. But like Pete said he does he'll
15:39
he will get the coverage. I mean, hell, they got their own
15:41
TV network for crying out loud. So everything is there for him.
15:47
I think it's still gonna be a a run heavy team.
15:49
I just think they're gonna get such big leads.
15:51
I don't see a stand where he's chucking it around like crazy in
15:54
the fourth quarter stat padding. But I mean, I'll be happy for
15:59
him if he wins because that's my team.
16:01
But at that low number and you know, a whole new receiver room,
16:06
I'm going to, I'm going to respectfully pass.
16:09
Hitter. Yeah, for him, I don't know if
16:13
he needs to be flashy, right? This is Notre Dame.
16:17
When's the last Notre Dame quarterback to win the Heisman?
16:21
And think of the backing of the people that I mean, who was was
16:25
it? Who's the last quarterback?
16:28
I mean, from Notre Dame? It's been a long freaking time,
16:30
right? But this team had massive
16:33
national backing, right? There's, there's certainly kind
16:36
of a, a, a, a penting demand for, for this team to do
16:41
something and for, you know, a kind of a status quarterback to
16:45
come out of this university. So that certainly I think if the
16:48
stage is set, you mentioned the network, certainly if this guy
16:54
is even partially lighting it up, you don't have to light it
16:57
up. If he's like leading his team,
16:59
like just a leader in a way that is clearly evident, right.
17:03
And especially if he's bring, you know, if he's comes back,
17:05
brings them back if they're down, you know, if, you know, if
17:08
he just does some of these things that a true leader can do
17:10
as a quarterback, I think he'll remain near the top of the list.
17:14
And and he just needs something signature later in the year.
17:17
And if he can do something signature later in the year and
17:20
somebody else isn't just setting the world on fire.
17:22
I mean, this is a a, you know, and and if play right, like, you
17:27
know, maybe somebody else sitting the world on fire with
17:29
them. Now, he's not going to win.
17:30
But you know, if everybody else is kind of doing their thing, I
17:33
think it's entirely possible. I mean, he's a safe play.
17:35
He's got a strong supporting cast.
17:37
He's definitely going to be a leader on this team.
17:40
I mean, the price isn't great. I wouldn't bet because the price
17:43
is not great, but could he win? I would not be surprised at all.
17:47
And I think he'll have a lot of support and votes to do so if he
17:51
has a really good year, which I think he very well could.
17:53
So I wouldn't be shocked. And I'll just have to see how it
17:56
plays out. And one thing I want to just hop
17:58
on that before we go to the next guy or, and, or get Tim's
18:01
thoughts. You talked about, you know, late
18:03
in the year, you know, he needs that big moment.
18:05
Well, that Miami game is November 7th.
18:08
There's still three weeks of college football after that.
18:10
And outside of a home game against SMU, like the 20th or
18:13
the 21st, that that they don't have anything.
18:17
I mean, there's a lot of other guys on this list who are going
18:19
to be battling for conference championships.
18:21
He doesn't get, you know, the opportunity to play an extra
18:24
game there either. But I mean, I agree with
18:26
everything you said. But if that Miami game were
18:29
maybe 2 weeks later and he was still putting up those stats and
18:33
he goes out there and gets his revenge, Yeah, I agree with you.
18:38
I could certainly see it because, you know, that game
18:40
might be hyped up a. Little bit.
18:43
Before kickoff, maybe, I don't know, I might watch the first
18:47
Convict shirt. Dude, the 30 for 30 on that is
18:51
very interesting. It's incredible.
18:53
It is very good. It's really good, Rick.
18:56
Nyer He won the Heisman, didn't he?
18:59
I'm going that might I did answer my question. 1960s was
19:02
the last time that I. Was thinking like Paul Horning
19:04
or somebody like that. Paul.
19:05
Horning was 56. John Ron Huert Huerta in 1964
19:10
was the last guy quarterback that won and obviously Tim Brown
19:14
not. Tim Brown.
19:15
OK. I thought Rick Meyer won it.
19:16
I know he he did. Anyway, who cares?
19:19
It's Notre Dame. Moving on.
19:22
Your boy's nephew. Peter, We got Arch Manning.
19:25
Oh, boy. Pretty impressive stats last
19:27
year. Darren, we'll start with you.
19:29
Any thoughts on Arch? Yeah, I'm, I like Arch.
19:32
I'd like somebody with a higher number, but he's got everything
19:36
that I would look for in a bet despite, you know, 9 to one
19:39
odds. Yeah, his team's projected to
19:42
win 9 1/2. His schedule is brutal.
19:44
There is a ton of talent around this dude.
19:46
Texas did a great job with the portal, mainly getting Cam
19:49
Coleman, a couple running backs. They added to that room the
19:53
November schedule. He's got a couple big games at
19:56
LSU and at A&M. Dude performs well in those two
20:00
games. Here's your winner.
20:01
Hate to say it because I don't want to bet anybody below 12:50
20:05
but. He.
20:06
He was the one, He was the one young quarter, but the first
20:09
year quarterback that actually steadily improved over like the
20:13
last half of the season. We saw a lot of guys that just
20:16
didn't get there for one reason or another.
20:18
He did not start out great and granted there was so much hype
20:21
it was unfair. I can care less about Texas, to
20:24
be honest with you, unless I'm betting them.
20:25
But he really did pick up his game late October and all
20:31
through November. So I'm ready for the hype train
20:34
to happen all over again. But at least this time I think
20:37
it's warranted because there are signs that yeah, he he's
20:40
definitely taking a step in the right direction.
20:42
He's got the run game, you know, and and he's got a awesome team
20:46
around him. This would not surprise me if he
20:48
if he gets it this year. But again, 9 to one don't want
20:52
it. But then again, if you think
20:53
he's going to do it and you think they're, you know, they
20:55
host Ohio State in Week 1 and you think he's going to win, get
20:59
it now because of Texas Beach, Ohio State in Week 1, he's going
21:02
to be. That's going to drop.
21:05
So if you like him and you think Texas are going to take down the
21:07
Buckeyes week one, get it. Just do it now.
21:11
Any other thoughts, Peter? I mean, yeah, he was in a tough
21:15
situation last year. I mean, first time starter and,
21:18
you know, he had a tough start to the year.
21:20
Those those expectations were ridiculous and through the roof.
21:23
And obviously he didn't meet them, but nobody was going to
21:25
meet those expectations. That was ridiculous.
21:26
But to Darren's point, I mean, this is the guy who steadily
21:30
improved through the year. And by the end of the year, he
21:33
was looking like the guy we thought he was going to be.
21:36
And this is the guy surrounded by talent.
21:38
I mean, to me, it's this is his to lose.
21:40
At the end of the day, there's somebody, he's in a perfect
21:42
position on the right team with the right coach who's going to
21:45
get AI talk about publicity and big games and being on TV and
21:50
all that. He's got all that set up for
21:52
him. Like you're going to see arch,
21:54
arch, arch, arch all year long. So if it's all positive arch
21:59
highlights and him just lighten stuff up, which he certainly can
22:02
do. And he's a dual threat, right?
22:04
If he's getting the legs going and all that, I mean that, I
22:07
mean, it's in the back. The guy's going to win it.
22:09
I mean, especially if this team rolls into the playoff.
22:15
I I can't imagine him not winning it.
22:17
He's he's the number one. So he would have to do something
22:21
to come off of that. So I, I and I, I really don't
22:26
see that happening. The price is too short to bet
22:28
it. So unless he gets injured or
22:29
something and I'm not, something bad happens to the guy,
22:31
unfortunately, you know, but he's play.
22:33
If he continues on his trajectory of what he was doing
22:35
last year through the year, he's going to have a fantastic year
22:38
and watch out for Texas then, 'cause that team is going to be.
22:42
Really. Yeah, especially with the NIL
22:44
money. This is for the foreseeable
22:46
future. Texas will be there.
22:48
Yeah, sounds. All right, well, I Mississippi
22:52
judge ruled that Trinidad Chambles can play.
22:54
He's back. He's also at +900.
22:57
But Ole Miss, I think we started with Darren last time.
23:00
Peter, any thoughts with Trinidad Chambles at +900?
23:05
Yeah, I mean, that price is short.
23:07
I mean that that feels like like last year's story here being
23:10
priced at this year's odds. I mean, any proven production
23:14
guy, right? And look at the look, look at
23:16
the stats right in front of you right there.
23:17
I mean, those are quality stats, a guy who's likely going to
23:21
perform. So I would expect you to see
23:23
something similar. Again, obviously exposure with
23:27
the Sep will help as well. You know, I, I, I worry about
23:32
volatility with his play and volatility with the team, right?
23:36
That would be my bigger concern is volatility with this team,
23:39
right? This is a team that's obviously
23:41
changing and transitioning here a bit and I'm not sure what that
23:44
turns into. So that could be a bit of an
23:47
issue for for Trinidad. That said, excellent player.
23:51
I expect he will play well this year.
23:54
But right, that's again, he's in a conference in the SEC with
23:58
some other people who are probably like like arch that we
24:01
just talked about there. How can if you're not even the
24:03
best quarterback in your, you know, in your conference, you're
24:08
not going to win the Heisman, right?
24:09
And so that, that, to me, that's kind of the issue for for him.
24:12
But once again, Arch would have to step back for that to happen.
24:15
But Trinidad's going to have a great year.
24:16
I just worry about the volatility with Ole Miss itself.
24:18
So that's that's my concern. Aaron.
24:22
Yeah, I'm, I'm down a little bit on Ole Miss as a team this year.
24:28
I think they were, you know, obviously right in the high of
24:30
we're going to show Lane Kiffin what we know, what he missed out
24:33
on. I think there is something to
24:35
that. I think they certainly played
24:37
motivated. My concern is like, yeah,
24:41
they've, they've got a typical SEC schedule and you know, so
24:44
they, they got a ton of tough games, you know, end of October,
24:47
early November, they've got Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma in
24:50
there three out of four weeks. You know, the window is only
24:55
sitting at 7 1/2. So I, I don't know the the odds
24:58
makers really aren't expecting a lot and got, you know, I already
25:01
talked to you guys before you recorded.
25:03
I'm short on sleep for reasons. We won't get into.
25:06
But does anybody look at this guy and be like, OK, you were an
25:13
FCS quarterback last year. The only reason you played is
25:17
'cause somebody got hurt. Now there's film on you.
25:20
Do defenses adjust to him and maybe he's not as great as he
25:29
was last year? I'm just, I'm just wondering,
25:32
you know, not, not any part of it.
25:34
So I'm trying to think, well, why do I want to dismiss him at
25:36
9:00 to 1:00? The schedule's tough.
25:39
You know, again, FCS guy this time last year.
25:43
And again, I talked about the timing of the schedule.
25:45
While they start out in November with that Georgia and Oklahoma
25:47
game, their last two games are against Wofford and Mississippi
25:50
State. I mean, is anybody really going
25:52
to give you credit for smoking those two schools, you know, at
25:56
the back end of your schedule? I mean, you might not even be in
26:00
contention for the SEC title game well before, yeah, November
26:03
even starts, so. Cut that big game early
26:06
September. Is that your Florida State boys?
26:10
Is that they're. Playing your LSU, yeah, that's.
26:13
Pete and I'll be Yeah, Pete and I'll be just cursing back and
26:16
forth for a solid 3 1/2 hours that day.
26:20
But yeah, I mean, the, the number's too short for me.
26:22
And, you know, I don't like the the last couple weeks of his.
26:25
Yeah, he can certainly pad his stats.
26:27
But like Pete said, there's a ton of solid quarterbacks in
26:30
this conference alone, you know, not even talking about Big 10
26:33
and the other two Power 4 conferences.
26:36
But like you said, if you're not playing in your conference title
26:38
game, well, you're probably not going to get a, a, a second
26:43
look. So this number's too short.
26:45
Yeah, if he was like 15 to 118 to 1, maybe I would consider,
26:49
but nine to one that that's that's last year's performance
26:53
easily baked in and that number not a fan.
26:58
And I'm, you know, not high on Ole Miss.
27:00
So another reason I just I'm avoiding this.
27:03
Guy, I think last year was their shot, you know, like.
27:07
Yeah, I mean, their defense wasn't great, you know, but now
27:10
Pete Golding's got to do do the head coaching thing and he's
27:12
still calling defensive plays, apparently.
27:14
And I just got to do it for a full year.
27:16
And he's had some extra games so people have extra tape on him
27:19
and what he likes to run. So it's possible that if the
27:23
diva's looking any better, he is definitely going to be forced to
27:26
put up the stats. But, you know, let me see if if
27:29
you can do it in second year and at 9:00 to 1:00.
27:32
No, no, Sir. Don't like it all?
27:35
Right, but move on Now we're getting into our territory over
27:38
plus 1000 we got plus 1200 Dante Moore of Oregon.
27:43
This is actually one of my bets here.
27:45
I got the, I think Oregon's a stat factory, you know, last
27:50
year at 30 touchdowns. If I looking at his schedule, I
27:55
would pull that up on the screen here.
27:56
He could get that touchdown total up a lot closer to 40 if
28:00
not 40. I wouldn't be surprised.
28:03
Tough Rd. game at USC and a tough Rd. game at Ohio State.
28:08
The other Rd. games are winnable.
28:09
The rest are at home, Oklahoma State, Boise State, you know,
28:15
Washington's always a shootout. You know, maybe Illinois, see
28:19
what they do. I can see this.
28:21
You know, if he can cut down the interception to single digits,
28:24
get the touchdown total up, Dan Lanning isn't shy about dropping
28:28
40 on somebody. So I could see just a cranking
28:31
out numbers every week. And there's your flash, even
28:34
though it's on the West Coast, it'll be a lot of flash here.
28:36
I don't know what you guys think.
28:37
Darren, go with you. Yeah, I I agree with you.
28:40
This is this is my bet as well. You take a look at that schedule
28:44
and you're just kind of like, well, yeah, right, Ohio State,
28:47
Michigan, but but if you dig a little deeper, there's a lot
28:50
there's a lot of teams in the Big 10 that I think that are
28:53
going to be improved. We talked about how the SEC top
28:55
to bottom might be like the best conference in the Big 10.
28:57
So like top heavy three teams or so.
29:00
I think the Big 10 is catching up, man.
29:01
I think USC will still be a good offensive club if their defense
29:05
is still terrible. That Boise Oak, that first four
29:08
games, yeah, Dante Morca had 40 touchdowns by then.
29:11
I mean those defenses. Are rhyme.
29:13
For Heisman padding numbers. But UCLA is gonna be better with
29:17
Chesney. Nebraska should be a little bit
29:19
better. And I don't really sold on
29:22
Illinois, but Bret Bielma's a good coach.
29:23
He'll probably have Illinois, too.
29:26
Northwestern should be a little bit better.
29:28
You know, Ohio State's gonna be good.
29:29
I'm high on Michigan. Sorry, Pete, don't mean to jinx
29:32
ya. And I love Washington.
29:34
So this is not like an easy, you know, Big 10 schedule.
29:38
And, and Vegas has Oregon's win total at 10 1/2.
29:41
Only slight plus money to the over.
29:43
So he's gonna get the wins. He's gonna get the stats.
29:47
You know, look at that November schedule, Ohio State, Michigan
29:51
and Washington, two of those are, I mean, he doesn't have to
29:54
go in and beat Ohio State. But you know, like Tim said, he,
29:57
you know, he can't go in there and, you know, throw 3
30:01
interceptions if if it's a close game.
30:04
And, you know, even if they lose, if they have a good
30:07
showing, I think at the very least he's going to New York.
30:10
So, yeah, at 12 to one with that schedule, especially that back
30:14
end of the schedule. Yep, There we go, baby.
30:19
Quack, quack mother. That's right, Darren, any final
30:24
thoughts on Dante Moore? Love him, bet him, run to your
30:28
sports book. Yeah, you know what?
30:33
So for the Natty show, I really, really kicked around Oregon as a
30:37
potential bet, and I didn't. For this show, I really kicked
30:41
around Dante Moore and I didn't. And I walked by somebody 2 days
30:45
ago with a Ducks jersey on the Malecon down here in Mexico.
30:48
So that's three things that say go bet them both right now.
30:53
Go bet Dante, go bet Oregon. They're going to win it.
30:56
He's going to win the Heisman. It's in the bag.
30:59
Clearly the Matrix is telling me something that I'm not listening
31:02
to. So no, I mean, Dante's a
31:04
fantastic player. I, I have, that was where I was
31:07
going to go originally and I didn't, and especially when I
31:11
knew you guys were going to bet it.
31:12
But the whole West Coast thing, when I was talking about the
31:14
West Coast, I think it's a bit of an exception because he's in
31:17
the Big 10 and he's coming out east a lot out this and he's
31:20
playing, you know, Big 10 teams. He's so he's he's playing
31:23
Michigan, he's playing Ohio State, he's playing these teams
31:25
where he's going to get TV coverage with big audiences back
31:29
out East. So that doesn't Oregon doesn't
31:32
qualify as one of those teams and guys that's lost out.
31:35
So he he's absolutely going to get the coverage and I think
31:37
he's going to be a beast. So as they, as they both said,
31:40
everybody go bet Dante, go bet Oregon.
31:44
It's in a bag. I I gotta ask Pete, 'cause I see
31:48
on here, did you bump into the guy with the Oregon jersey on
31:50
the way to buy your Chardonnay or whatever it is you're
31:52
drinking there? Nothing says gridiron tough guy
31:56
football like sipping your exciting white here with I
31:59
think. An exciting white from that with
32:04
my new ink that I got in Mexico, which you can't see.
32:06
About. Oh boy.
32:07
And no, it was actually, it was actually a female, it was like
32:10
25 years old wearing that Ducks jersey out.
32:12
And I was like, OK, this is I don't know the matrix is
32:16
speaking. To me, you should have led with
32:17
that, so yeah. So I think, I think that I'm
32:19
going to have to go bet those anyway because I think
32:22
something's taught me to bet them.
32:23
So yeah, you're going full narco terrorist now with the ink you
32:26
got. We got the right another one of
32:29
your boys here at People starting with you, Julian saying
32:31
another one at plus 1200. Yeah, we started, we started to
32:36
talk about it earlier, right? I mean, it's the problem for
32:38
him. I think he's going to have a
32:39
very good year. Problem for him is he's got
32:42
another guy on his team that there's also on this list, and
32:45
that's generally you don't help each other with that.
32:49
Yeah, you'll help each other win, it'll help the team, but
32:52
you're not going to help each other in terms of an individual
32:55
award like this. You're likely to take something
32:58
away from each other. So I think that's going to be
33:00
the issue. Plus, to be honest, I mean, the
33:03
way he played in the playoffs last year, he's got to approve.
33:06
I mean, he was completely outclassed.
33:09
He was completely outclassed in that playoff game.
33:12
He just, he did. He did.
33:13
He was not nearly as good as the competition.
33:17
So he's got to be better than that.
33:18
That was not a Heisman Trophy winner playing that game.
33:22
So if he's not better than that, then he shouldn't win the thing
33:25
anyway. But, but I assume he's going to
33:27
be, I assume that he will continue to improve through this
33:29
year. I expect the team to be good,
33:31
but I don't, I am not told that he's a guy that you can just
33:35
lean on. And I would expect a Heisman
33:38
Trophy winner, quarterback that you can do that.
33:42
And I'm not sure he's that guy. Honestly.
33:44
He's just in a system and a team with a coach that's a machine
33:48
and it works for him. I don't think you can pull him
33:50
out and go stick him on some other team and he'd be on this
33:53
list. Actually, I'm, or if he would
33:55
be, he'd be way down the list. That's my position on him.
33:58
I just don't think individually I, I'm honestly not sure he's an
34:02
NFL quarterback. That's my perspective.
34:04
So hot take. There we go, Darren.
34:08
Yeah, I agree with everything Pete said.
34:10
I have nothing to add. Oh boy, yeah, sorry.
34:15
I like that take. That was a hot take right there.
34:17
But he's he's Pete's 100% right. And you you got to sip your
34:20
Chardonnay when you make your your sandwich.
34:23
How does how about Peach iced tea?
34:25
I mean hitting like caffeine like crazy.
34:29
That's a poor man's Chardonnay. There we go, our next two.
34:32
Children in college, I'm a poor man what do you.
34:34
Want me to do That's right. Got another one at plus 1200.
34:37
Josh Hoover joining the defending national champions at
34:40
Indiana. Darren went with Pete last time.
34:44
Want to start us off with Josh Hoover?
34:47
Would it be just a cop out to say I don't see him giving it to
34:49
two Indiana quarterbacks back-to-back years?
34:54
Yeah. I don't really want to roll with
34:56
that though, because that seems kind of lame.
34:57
But I mean, I think this guy is going to be a a product of the
35:00
Indiana system. I mean, you look at that there
35:02
those 13 picks, you know, if you put that up a 2024, there was
35:06
also double digit picks in that year as well.
35:09
To be fair, he did have to carry a lot of TCU offensively.
35:13
He does love to sling the ball around.
35:15
So picks are going to happen. I don't think he's going to be
35:17
asked to do nearly as much as he had to do at TCU.
35:20
And I don't know if the stats will be there.
35:23
I think Indiana, yeah, they're just going to focus on
35:26
controlling the ball, not turn it over.
35:29
They know Josh loves to turn it over.
35:31
So I think he's just going to get a little less on his plate,
35:35
at least a start. But yeah, 12 to one is is again,
35:41
that that's too short. I mean, their schedules not, I
35:45
mean, wrote down some of the tough games.
35:47
I mean, they host USC in November.
35:50
They go to Washington. I mean, there's no real, you
35:53
know, they've got Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Washington.
35:56
Those are pretty much their BIG4 games.
35:58
I, I don't know if there's enough good games for him to
36:01
shine in where he's going to get the votes to even go to New
36:05
York, much less win. And honestly, I don't think
36:07
they're going to give it to Indiana player two years in a
36:09
row. And I I don't think, I think
36:11
Pete, you and I both agree. I don't think we're really high
36:12
on Indiana. I think on our national title
36:14
show, we're like, no, it it's too hard to repeat.
36:16
They lost too much. Tim knows from Mike Norvell.
36:20
Just because the portal works one year doesn't mean it always
36:22
works every single year. So, you know, a lot of his James
36:25
Madison guys have probably graduated or playing in the NFL.
36:30
No, I'm, I'm not saying Indiana's going to be 4:00 and
36:33
8:00, but I mean, they're not going 16 and oh.
36:37
You, you got your Florida State dig in before the end of the
36:40
show. You happy, You got you Get that
36:41
out of your system. No, not really.
36:43
I'm tired. I'm going like 3 1/2 hours of
36:45
sleep. All right, now we got a Duke
36:49
transfer going down to EU, so I got Darian Bensa.
36:54
He's he also got plus 12 points. You got a lot of those here in a
36:56
little log jam. Peter, let's start with you.
36:59
He's heading down to Miami. Yeah, we talked about it a
37:03
little bit, or at least we touched on it a little bit
37:05
earlier, right? So, yeah, I mean, I think he's
37:08
going to perform well there. I mean, I think clearly the the
37:12
speed and the talent on that team is hard to argue with,
37:14
right? This is a team that, you know,
37:18
procure his talent, right? They have speed, they have
37:20
talent and he's going to have players around that can that can
37:22
run and then and, and so I it should serve him well.
37:26
I would expect to see him play well this year.
37:29
I don't know if I'm sold on him being a true Heisman candidate.
37:32
I mean, those odds to me are just.
37:35
I don't know. 12 to one that feels, that doesn't feel right
37:41
to me. I would never take that.
37:43
I mean, if it was 20 to one or something, maybe, I don't know.
37:47
That's just a lot of hopes and dreams to me.
37:49
I mean, yeah, you're going to a program that should support the
37:52
man. He's got a lot of talent on the
37:55
team. Clearly he himself is quite
37:57
talented. But yeah, I just don't see it.
38:01
I mean, I, I spent some time looking, I mean, the offense
38:04
explosive. He's got upside for sure.
38:05
But is he going to, is he going to transform into what I would
38:11
expect him to need to be to be a Heisman winner at Miami?
38:17
And the answer, I think is no, I don't.
38:19
I don't, I don't see that happening.
38:20
So yeah, I don't. I think 20 will outshine him.
38:24
Yeah. I agree.
38:26
So Darren, any thoughts on Darren Menso?
38:30
Don't like him. And I'll, I'll say this and I
38:33
don't know if you have a Brendan Sorsby slide, but I'm going to
38:35
kind of lump these two together as a reason We talked about one
38:38
of the things we look at, you know, big games, you, you need
38:41
to have a handful of big games, you know, to really get yourself
38:44
out there. I mean, they'll get the they'll
38:46
get the notoriety, they'll they'll get the pub because they
38:49
were in the national championship game last year.
38:51
But you know, you look at Miami schedule outside of the Notre
38:54
Dame game. I mean, is there really a big
38:57
game on that schedule? Trick question.
38:59
The answer is no. If you look at the ACC odds, all
39:03
right, Miami's the favorite to win this conference at -135 the
39:06
second choice is 7 to 1, all right?
39:08
And it's something similar with Texas Tech if we get to Soresby.
39:11
So if you're expected to win 11 games, maybe 12, what's what if
39:19
you slip up? No, I mean we were all in
39:21
Orlando last October and we saw Carson Beck throw 4 picks at
39:25
home again. Actually 51 got overturned
39:28
because of a Louisville penalty. One bad game.
39:32
He's OK. Well, who did Miami play this
39:34
year? Oh, nobody.
39:35
Oh, he lost to team AI. Don't want to say it's like a
39:40
single elimination thing for guys like Mensa and Soresby, but
39:43
it kind of is. I mean, you got all these other
39:45
teams in the Big 10 and the SEC playing brutal games week in and
39:50
week out, especially when you hit, you know, November.
39:53
Yeah. And this guy and sort of you
39:55
have these cupcake schedules, but they're expected to win 11
39:58
or 12 games. I just think if they don't,
40:02
let's say they're a 24 point favorite against somebody, he
40:05
throws 2 TDs, 2 picks, you know, and they win by 4.
40:08
Is that impressive enough for this guy to get votes to even
40:11
show up in New York? I don't think so.
40:13
So and and again, we talked about Malcay Tony.
40:16
I would rather vote Malcay Tony than this guy if if I yeah, if I
40:20
had to make a bet here. But I think they'll take votes
40:23
away from each other. I don't think that schedule is
40:25
there. I mean, is it's like he's got no
40:28
competition. I mean those numbers that he had
40:30
last year at Duke, OK, that that's ACC stats right there,
40:35
man. I mean that that's what he
40:37
should be doing, especially with this schedule.
40:40
So I think Sorsby and Mensa, what they make up, you know,
40:44
what they get in wins and you know, probably conference
40:47
championship appearances and playoff appearances.
40:49
I think the the lack of toughness to their schedule will
40:53
eventually hurt both of those guys.
40:56
One may get invited to New York, but I I would not back either of
41:00
them. Good boy going to Lane Kiffin
41:07
here. We got Sam Levitt going to LSU.
41:11
He is at plus 1600, starting to get up a little bit.
41:13
Peter, we'll start with you, Mr. Levitt.
41:17
Oh, you just kind of said it Lane, man.
41:18
This is all about lane. I mean, this is this is going to
41:21
be interesting, right? I mean, so I'm pretty.
41:23
We're rather high in LSU. Darren and I are.
41:25
We talked about it at the Natty Show.
41:27
I mean, yeah. And you can't be high in LSU
41:31
without being high on Sam. You're expecting Sam to step up
41:33
and have a really good year, which I think he will.
41:37
I mean, he's coming into a better environment for him.
41:41
Obviously SEC spotlight, he's got.
41:44
I mean, if you had to pick an offensive coach to go play for
41:49
as a quarterback at top three, I mean Lane's in the top three.
41:53
I mean, who else would you want to go play for?
41:55
He's going to give you opportunities to showcase, to
41:58
light it up, to score points, to look like a stud.
42:03
And Sam's going to get those opportunities all year long.
42:05
He's going to get those opportunities against top shelf
42:08
competition. Now that's where the issue
42:11
comes, right? The only big concern with him,
42:15
because I do, I do like Sam a lot here, is that obviously in
42:19
the SEC there's some significant competition that they have to
42:23
deal with, right? I mean, on the field clearly
42:27
with the teams are playing, but also once again, we talked about
42:30
in the same conference, you've got somebody like our shop
42:33
there, right? So can you win the Heisman if
42:36
the other one of the other quarterbacks to say Arch in your
42:39
conference as a stellar year? The answer is no, right?
42:43
You can't win the Heisman out of the SEC unless Arch steps back,
42:47
simple as that, because you're not going to surpass him in
42:49
votes unless he steps back. That is an issue for any
42:52
quarterback in the SEC without Arch stepping back.
42:55
But let's say that's if that happens, Yeah, I think Sam's
42:58
going to have a phenomenal year. LSU is going to have a
43:01
phenomenal year, absolute the national championship threat for
43:05
sure. And I think this would be fun as
43:07
heck to watch. We've mentioned the Ole Miss
43:08
game. That's going to be, I think
43:10
they're going to break out a flamethrower, the Ole Miss.
43:14
I think it's going to be pretty interesting to watch.
43:17
But yeah, I think this is interesting.
43:20
I think there's certainly an opportunity here.
43:22
You just need other things to happen that are out of Sam's
43:24
control to some degree. And that's just kind of the the
43:26
name of the game here. So.
43:28
But love the guy. Or Darren.
43:32
Yeah, I, I, this was initially gonna be my bet, but then I
43:36
realized, wow, it would be two futures preview shows in and all
43:39
my money would be on LSU. So I, I didn't want that.
43:43
But a few things do do concern me, obviously.
43:46
Is he healthy? You know, he only played half a
43:48
season last year, so he needs to be healthy.
43:50
I think the system he's in, I think he's perfect.
43:52
I mean, we talked about Trinidad Chamberson, Jackson Dart, how
43:55
well they thrived under Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weiss.
43:58
Well, guess who's the same type of quarterback?
44:00
Yeah, this dude here in purple. So I'm not worried about him
44:03
succeeding. I'm worried about him being
44:05
healthy. I'm worried about the receiver
44:06
core. All the wide receivers from last
44:09
year's team that came back combined for one pass reception.
44:13
That's not a lot, by the way. That's only one more than the
44:16
three of us put together. So he's got a gel with this
44:20
receiver core right away. We talked about it when Pete and
44:23
I made the bet. It's like I don't really like
44:25
them starting off against Clemson.
44:26
I don't think Clemson's great, but not the defense.
44:28
You want to try and work some things out on offensively.
44:32
So I worry about the new receiving core.
44:34
I worry a little bit about his health.
44:37
I did like the 16 to 1. And you know, like Pete said it,
44:41
if that comes together and that offense comes together sooner
44:44
rather than later, yeah, this dude will be in New York and
44:48
hopefully he'll be in the playoff as well.
44:49
So I, I, I did end up rolling with Dante Moore, but Sam Levitt
44:55
was, was initially one of the last two and he was the one I
44:59
kicked off but. OK, All right.
45:03
Now we got some real long shots. These are my favorites.
45:07
I love like these Hail Marys, these he's hoes we're going to
45:10
start out with my guy from last year, 4000.
45:13
I got them last year. Now it's down to 2700.
45:15
Talking about Marceau Reed, Texas A&M, some of the pros to
45:20
him, actually, he's in the SEC, so he's going to have a tough
45:23
competition. There we go, there we go.
45:27
Here's my guy. If he starts out quick, he's
45:31
actually a, you know, true dual threat.
45:33
He can run, he can pass. He's also tough.
45:35
He's took a lot of hits and y'all see the commentators.
45:39
Is he going to come out of the game?
45:41
Never really did. He's missed very minimal, maybe
45:45
one or two plays, but tough Katie's your greatest ability is
45:48
availability. So he's going to be out there
45:51
plus 2700. If if he starts out hot, he can
45:54
keep it running. The only thing is that he needs
45:57
to start fast. If he doesn't start fast, he's
46:00
going to fall behind all the flashy guys up at the top.
46:02
But he can, if he starts out fast, he can hold with him the
46:05
rest of the year and maybe he can get in there.
46:08
Invited to New York and thoughts Darren.
46:11
Nice hat. Thank you.
46:14
Yeah, Pete and I had a slight disagreement on Texas A&M and we
46:17
broke him down a couple weeks ago.
46:18
He he's a little more bullish on them than I am.
46:23
I like Marcel Reed, but he's one of those quarterbacks that, you
46:26
know, against the team that he was supposed to perform, he did.
46:32
Against the teams that were a little bit tougher, he did not.
46:35
We all what a three points against Miami at home in the
46:40
playoff. I mean, that needs that needs to
46:42
improve. Was it Craver stayed?
46:45
That dude's ridiculous. So that's certainly going to
46:47
help him. But he did lose Concepcion.
46:49
He'll be going to the NFL. That hurts a little bit, but
46:53
that's a brutal environment to play in.
46:57
But yeah, I mean, he's he's like some other guys we mentioned he
47:00
he's got to step up in the big games and if he does that, this
47:03
is an excellent bet. You know, I'm sorry you didn't
47:04
get your 40 to 1 like you got last year, but don't hate it.
47:09
Don't not not a big fan of the team, but a fan of him.
47:12
So yeah, I I will still wear the hat for you every time he's got
47:16
a big game. All right, Peter, Yeah.
47:20
I mean, you said a lot of it, right?
47:21
This is a major dual threat quarterback monster potential,
47:25
especially from the usage, right?
47:27
They're going to use the heck out of their offense runs
47:29
through Marcel, right? And that is to his advantage,
47:32
right? If this team can be good enough,
47:35
they can win 10 games, if they can make the playoff, if they
47:39
can just be highly competitive, it's going to be because of him,
47:45
right? And he is going to get that
47:47
spotlight, which he should get. I mean, this is, you know, a
47:50
breakup candidate potentially. And once again, it's a long
47:54
shot, but I absolutely a breakup candidate.
47:56
I mean, I would expect something like potentially 40 plus total
48:00
TVT DS, you know, maybe 3500 passing yards.
48:05
I mean, he should have a freaking monster here.
48:07
There's no doubt about that. So, yeah, I think Darren brought
48:11
up a point performance in the games where he needs to perform
48:15
that could hurt him, right? If he in some of these big
48:17
games, if he underperforms, you know, if he looks like he's
48:20
truly struggling, if he looks like he can't read the defenses,
48:23
which could be a concern, things of that nature, that could be a
48:25
problem. But you know, OK, so that was an
48:28
aberration. If he, if he improves off of
48:29
that, if he truly, you know, is, you know, Dolphins running
48:35
through him, if the team is competitive all the way through,
48:37
if they win 10 plus games, I think he's a finalist and I
48:40
think he'll be in New York and I think he should be because he's
48:43
he's that good of a talent. Will his team let him down?
48:46
Will the SEC be a problem? Etcetera, etcetera.
48:49
I don't know. Could be, but I do think he will
48:52
grow and I do think that he, I think he'll stand out.
48:56
So we'll see how it plays out. Yeah, I like the fact that they
49:00
got Texas at home this year. They walked to a buzz saw last
49:04
year. Any final thoughts on Marcel?
49:09
I'll take that as a note. Let's move on our next one.
49:14
So all right, here's another long shot we got John Metier,
49:17
Oklahoma quarterback plus 3500. Who's got this one?
49:20
Is that you, Pete? That's me.
49:22
That's that is my lean and Oklahoma I was pretty, pretty
49:29
warm on last year and I am again this year.
49:33
I think once again another dual threat guy who was injured last
49:37
year. So that was a bit of a problem.
49:40
So assuming that he has healed and he is himself, which I
49:47
expect we will see, he definitely is a dual threat
49:50
potential. I think that with the system,
49:54
with the coaching and I think Oklahoma performed quite well
49:57
last year, especially some big games, which of thing.
50:01
So returning production will help him for sure.
50:05
And I think there's a narrative on for him like somebody who was
50:08
injured, was down, kind of evolves, comes back and, you
50:13
know, if he can have a stellar year, especially if Oklahoma has
50:16
a really good year now, obviously if he's leading that,
50:19
you know, there's a narrative there that that could play well
50:23
for the Heisman that I could see.
50:26
So that would be interesting. So there, there's kind of a
50:29
little bit of back story there to it and I think it could play
50:32
pretty well. Now obviously it does depend on
50:34
Oklahoma performing well and and some of some of these games that
50:37
they're going to have to, they're going to have to shine
50:39
in, which is going to be challenging.
50:41
There is the late season visibility.
50:43
Darren talked about it earlier, right?
50:45
Having late season visibility while you're in the SEC, having
50:48
that visibility late, Yeah, that's a 2 edged sword.
50:51
Visibility, if you're playing well, winning is good.
50:55
If you're not, that's problem, right?
50:57
And so the opportunity will be there, I believe for Oklahoma
51:02
and for Metir. The question is, can they, can
51:05
they, you know, can can they grab that opportunity?
51:07
I tend to think it's it's possible.
51:09
So I think it is a potential classic SEC breakout bet here.
51:13
So if Oklahoma pops, then I think he's going to pop with
51:16
them. So that would be pretty
51:17
interesting. So that's my thoughts.
51:20
Any thoughts Darren or want to get on to your pick?
51:24
No, I I love this pick man. He's he's definitely.
51:26
Got the schedule to get it done and he was playing at a pretty
51:29
high level before he got hurt. But I mean, he did mention the
51:32
the game. I mean, they they have Michigan
51:35
and Georgia, I believe two of their first four games.
51:39
So obviously he's going to get a chance to to get off to a hot
51:42
start and back-to-back weekends in November.
51:44
They've got old miss and A&M. So I mean, he can definitely get
51:48
get a jump start on his yeah, whatever to his campaign to, to
51:54
win this and and he can certainly reinforce it with a
51:57
couple big games late. I I love this pick or actually
52:00
you didn't bet it, but I love this lean.
52:02
So yeah, if you're feeling sassy, you don't want to throw a
52:04
quarter or half unit down on this.
52:06
Why not? I'm backing you.
52:08
Buy an Oklahoma. Hat next just for Pete, because.
52:11
I I really like that. There we go.
52:15
All right, now we've got Darren's long shot lean here,
52:18
Damon Williams. Are these projections because of
52:21
I'm telling you right? Now Damon Williams throws 78
52:24
touchdowns to 8 picks. He's winning this award, so I'm
52:27
not sure where the that would be a.
52:30
Slip of the keyboard. There.
52:33
I noticed John Metier had like 87.
52:35
Touchdowns. I'm like, well shit, I'm just
52:36
going to throw my bet in the trash because John Metier
52:38
throwing touchdowns. I'm betting right?
52:41
After we go off the air do. That Oh my goodness.
52:45
That was the reason for my bet. I saw the 80.
52:47
Seven, I was in, so I mean I thought I had it locked with 70.
52:51
8:00 to 8:00, that's a heck of a TD to pick ratio, but apparently
52:54
I'm going to lose here. Yeah, this is my long shot.
52:57
Lean here. If if you're feeling extra sassy
53:00
and Matir's not crazy enough for you, might I suggest Damon
53:05
Williams at plus 5500? First of all, you can say, I
53:10
mean, is he a crap person? I don't know.
53:13
Dude just out of the blue decided he was going to
53:14
transfer, found out that he was going to get sued into oblivion,
53:19
decided that I'm just going to stay at Washington and came out
53:22
with announcement. When they were another athlete
53:24
who passed away, they were having a celebration of life.
53:26
So yeah, total Dick. Fine, I get that.
53:30
Chopped it up to bad advice. Whether that's true, probably
53:33
not. Don't really care.
53:34
Bottom line is, if anybody's got a chip on their shoulder and
53:37
needs to make people forget about their offseason, it's this
53:39
guy right here. We saw him in that bowl game
53:42
against Louisville a couple years ago.
53:44
We saw what he is capable of. This dude is electric.
53:47
And again, he's got that November schedule that everybody
53:50
loves. November 7th Penn State,
53:52
November 21st, Indiana November 28th at Oregon.
53:56
Throw in an early October game against USC if their defenses
53:59
ask. This dude might get the 78
54:02
touchdown passes, who knows, but that would lock it up.
54:06
I think he well. Not if Metir throws 87.
54:08
Because, you know, he's playing in the SEC that would be
54:11
incredibly impressive and he should win.
54:14
But yeah, again, not a bet. But if you if if you want to
54:19
throw something ridiculous out there, I don't think this is
54:22
that ridiculous. I mean, he he's yeah, I would, I
54:27
would. I mean, this is at least an 8
54:28
win team. I mean, if he could pull off one
54:30
or two of these other games, you know, a 10 and 2 Washington
54:34
team, you know, 'cause this guy's gonna lead it.
54:36
I mean, he lost Coleman and his top wide receiver whose name is
54:39
escaping me, so thank you. But yeah, I mean, if somebody.
54:44
Capable comes in. To to fill those two guys spots
54:47
at those skill positions. This guy's worth the look 'cause
54:50
he's he's yeah after his offseason he's he's going to be
54:54
out to to shut some people up. So my lean excellent.
55:00
All right, I think that's put our.
55:02
Picks up here on the board up if you would like, if you want to
55:05
know what who you think is going to take the highest and leave it
55:07
in the comments section would like to hear from you.
55:10
Let's wrap up with our picks. I've got Dante Moore at plus
55:14
1200 and I got 1/2 unit on Marceau Reed at plus 2700 for my
55:19
long shot. Peter Yeah, I have Marcel Reed
55:23
at plus 20. 500 for my bet and I have my long shot lean on John
55:28
Mater at plus 3500 and D. Yep.
55:32
Then I got the 12:00 to. One just like Tim, except I
55:34
only. Go 1/2 unit here on Dante Moore
55:36
and my lean for for the crazy and mentally insane, which I am
55:41
one, but no, not an official bet here, but a lean Damon Williams
55:44
55 to 1. All right, well, last show.
55:48
We did our national championship.
55:49
This is our Heisman show. Starting with the next show in a
55:52
couple weeks, we'll start doing our conference breakdowns and we
55:56
are starting with America's Dumpster fire.
55:59
We got the Big 12. That's always a fun conference
56:00
for preview. We're going to break these up
56:03
into two since every conference has like 30 teams in it now.
56:06
So if you have a a pick for Big 12, leave that in.
56:11
So let us know what you're thinking.
56:12
We're going to get to that next time.
56:14
So thank you for listening. Thank you for subscribing.
56:17
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56:19
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56:32
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