Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Should You Sell Your Microstrategy? (IS IT OVER?!) | EP 1313
Transcript
- 0:00New rumors are circulating that MicroStrategy could be in
- 0:04trouble because of what they just did.
- 0:07Sailor changed a very important rule this week that not only
- 0:10effects MicroStrategy investors, but it's a rule he promised he
- 0:14would never change. Is MicroStrategy in trouble?
- 0:18That's the big question. That's what everyone's wondering
- 0:21right now and leading to what we talked about here.
- 0:24Could this be a sign that the Bitcoin treasury companies are
- 0:28the pin that pops a 2025 bull run?
- 0:32So before we go on, I got to bring in Niko with us.
- 0:35Niko is actually going to cover all this.
- 0:36He's got all the sauce for today.
- 0:38And then we have our friend Kent from SAS Mining with us on
- 0:41today. So Niko, the floor is all yours.
- 0:43Let's go through this saga. Yeah, let's jump straight into
- 0:46it. So it's just been getting quite
- 0:49a lot of attention on X. And essentially the TLDR is
- 0:55Michael Saylor change the policy to put it nicely.
- 1:00So here's the article by Coin Central.
- 1:02Michael Saylor reverses stance on MSTR stock issuance amid
- 1:07Bitcoin slump. Now, the entire X community and
- 1:11the investing community has not really taken this too well.
- 1:17We have Josh Mandel who's saying some things we're going to get
- 1:21we're going to get into that. We have Fred Krueger who's been
- 1:23saying some things and of course we have Alex Leishman.
- 1:26Now what I will personally say about the Bitcoin treasury
- 1:29companies as a whole is the whole purpose of them for the
- 1:33whole purpose of you buying a Bitcoin treasury company is for
- 1:37you to outperform Bitcoin. But what happens when the M NAV
- 1:42goes below the total assets of the company holds?
- 1:47Then it doesn't make sense to buy a Bitcoin treasury company
- 1:50because then by definition it's not outperforming Bitcoin.
- 1:54Now we knew this was always going to happen when the Bitcoin
- 1:58price goes up, when it's in a bull run, the the Bitcoin
- 2:03treasury companies do have the probability of outperforming
- 2:06Bitcoin because they can tap into the financial markets, use
- 2:10leverage and if Bitcoin goes up 10%, maybe they go up 20%.
- 2:16The problem is when the price goes down.
- 2:19Now, does that mean that I think MicroStrategy is going to
- 2:22explode during the next bear market?
- 2:25No Do I think that Nakamoto is going to explode during the next
- 2:29bear market? No.
- 2:30Do I think 21 Jack Mahler, SoftBank and Tethers company is
- 2:35going to explode during the next bear market?
- 2:37No. But all the other copycats on
- 2:40the list that have to cut more and more corners in order to be
- 2:44able to raise capital, take on leverage to buy more Bitcoin.
- 2:48Do I think they're going to explode, which is going to set
- 2:51off a domino effect? Absolutely.
- 2:55And I think we're just getting a taste of that right now.
- 2:59So today's news, the headline for the audio listeners, Michael
- 3:02Saylor reverse his stance on MSTR stock issuance amid Bitcoin
- 3:07slump. The TLDR is Michael Saylor has
- 3:10revised MicroStrategy stock issuance rules to allow greater
- 3:15flexibility in Bitcoin acquisitions.
- 3:18The company will issue MSTR stock under a market to asset
- 3:22value of 2.5 to fund Bitcoin purchases.
- 3:27The M NAV Premium that once stood at 3.4.
- 3:30X. Has fallen to 1.6 X promoting A
- 3:34prompting the strategic shift. MSTR Stocks stock has struggled
- 3:39with performance, trading around $360.00 amid a decline in its
- 3:45premium over Bitcoin. Analysts suggest that MSTR stock
- 3:49may experience further declines if it falls below $360.00.
- 3:55So what does this all mean? It means that Michael Saylor
- 3:59just reversed course on Microstrategy's stock issuance
- 4:03policy, and it's a big deal. Until now, the company has a had
- 4:08a safeguard in place. They wouldn't issue new shares
- 4:11to buy Bitcoin unless MSTR stock was trading at least 2.5 times
- 4:17the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
- 4:20That rule was meant to protect shareholders from heavy
- 4:23dilution, but with Bitcoin slumping and Microstrategy's
- 4:27premium shrinking, Sailor has decided to scrap that rule
- 4:31altogether. Now the company can issue stock
- 4:34even at weaker valuations, basically whenever management
- 4:38thinks it's advantageous. What does this mean?
- 4:42On the positive side, it gives Micro Strategy more flexibility
- 4:47to keep buying Bitcoin no matter what the market does.
- 4:50Sailor isn't slowing down. Just last week.
- 4:53They added another 430 beat Bitcoin, pushing bring their
- 4:58total holdings to nearly 630,000 Bitcoin, by far the largest
- 5:04Bitcoin treasury company. But there's a trade off.
- 5:07Investors are worried that this exposes shareholders to more
- 5:11dilution and even in even greater volatility.
- 5:15Without the 2.5 X safeguard, the company could issue more stock
- 5:20when prices are low, spreading out existing ownership and
- 5:24weakening confidence in. Short Sailor is doubling.
- 5:28Down. The company is staying
- 5:29aggressive on Bitcoin accumulation, but it comes at
- 5:33the cost of shareholder protection.
- 5:35Flexibility for MicroStrategy on uncertainty for investors.
- 5:40Now, did Sailor lie? He did not lie about the 2.5 X
- 5:44rule. He simply just abandoned it.
- 5:47Now let's get some of the reactions from some of the
- 5:51community regarding what just happened in this recent policy
- 5:55change. So we're going to start off with
- 5:57Josh Mandel. He says please stop asking me
- 6:01but if or why I sold MSR at 1.5 M NAV.
- 6:06You just don't seem to get it. I actually bought above here and
- 6:10then Sailor sold. He said they wouldn't and then
- 6:13he did. I'm announcing that I will not
- 6:16speak in support of anything that man does.
- 6:18Again. This is very harsh criticism.
- 6:21He can say he changed his mind with the three-year plan after
- 6:25he decided to hold a fire sale, but he doesn't get to use that I
- 6:29change my mind excuse again this time plenty of people saw it
- 6:34coming. Like bit by bit pain I I just
- 6:37couldn't believe he would renege again.
- 6:40A man is only as good as his word.
- 6:43Where is the on chain tracking? They're still working on it
- 6:46right? This is like a game.
- 6:48He must be laughing as he watches the next MSTR true North
- 6:53episode quote. Let's see how many minions yes
- 6:56me tonight. I would like to just see one of
- 6:59them say they were disappointed that he issued the guidance and
- 7:02then violated it in the space A space of a couple of weeks.
- 7:07I would like to at least say that it was a colossal F up to
- 7:11issue the guidance to begin with if he knew he might renege.
- 7:16Very harsh wording from Josh, Josh Mandel and he's making miss
- 7:22memes about it and MSTR mistrust Very, very harsh wording and he
- 7:28continues to say he's not a liar.
- 7:32He's he's a liar, not a Pansy. This is very it's not simply
- 7:36bitcoins words, not Nico's words.
- 7:38This is Josh Mandel. We're just covering what is
- 7:41being said on X and the investor reaction to this recent micro
- 7:47strategy policy shift. The head of the company said he
- 7:51would sell below 2.5 M NAV so I bought.
- 7:55He made this agreement with the shareholder at the live earnings
- 7:58release and then he sold below M NAV 2.5.
- 8:02Just because he made a post on X saying he was breaking the
- 8:05agreement doesn't mean he he isn't a cheat.
- 8:08Here's the good news. He also said he might buy back
- 8:12shares versus selling preferred when M NAV hits .5.
- 8:16Which is funny because those the the shares need to be sold in
- 8:20order to pay out returns to the preferred hold holders.
- 8:24Watch the sleigh of sleigh of hand now and see how the
- 8:27flywheel becomes the rhymes with.
- 8:30And yeah, he just posted a meme, so again, not this is not being
- 8:36well received by the investment community.
- 8:39Here is Fred Krueger. He says it.
- 8:41Feels like MSTR has lost an engine mid flight.
- 8:44The idea of issuing the strong guidance that no ATMs will
- 8:49happen unless M NAV is above 2.5 and then changing gears 2 weeks
- 8:54later is an unforced error. Ultimately this resulting and
- 8:59further M NAV compression for all Bitcoin treasury companies.
- 9:03It's really the worst of all worlds.
- 9:06Saying nothing would have been much preferable, and here's Alex
- 9:10Leishman. Alex Leishman is the CEO of
- 9:13River Financial, a a leading Bitcoin on ramp.
- 9:17He says a number of small cap Bitcoin treasury companies are
- 9:21now trading beneath the value of their Bitcoin holdings.
- 9:24I think this can be explained by insider selling liabilities on
- 9:29the balance sheet. Stock is less liquid than
- 9:31Bitcoin. Management team has shown no
- 9:34ability to grow Bitcoin per share.
- 9:36Buyers beware, he went on to say.
- 9:39I would say the market is already punished, punishing some
- 9:42of them. If the value of your company is
- 9:44less than the Bitcoin you hold, then you're operating business
- 9:48is perceived to have negative value.
- 9:50Now there's nuance here because there may be liabilities, but
- 9:54it's directionally true. His last comment is having a
- 9:57Bitcoin treasury company as a private company to preserve the
- 10:01earnings of a firm is a straightforward endeavor.
- 10:04Run a good business and buy Bitcoin with some of the
- 10:07profits. Going public with the Bitcoin
- 10:10treasury playbook is an entirely different animal.
- 10:13You need to be fundraising. You need to be a fundraising and
- 10:16finance wizard. Your core competency is no
- 10:20longer your operating business. That's just decoration.
- 10:24Your job is to spin a flywheel very few have ever spun.
- 10:28I don't think this ends well for the majority of people playing
- 10:32the game. Extremely harsh language from
- 10:36the community. But to be fair, before I add my
- 10:40points, let me play a clip of I believe of MicroStrategy CEO
- 10:45talking about the change in policy.
- 10:50So our equity guidance, I talked about the fact that we think
- 10:53MSTR is undervalued in some cases, perhaps significantly
- 10:57undervalued. And even though issuing equity
- 11:02anywhere above a 1.0 XM NAV is a creative to Bitcoin yield and
- 11:08Bitcoin gain, we will on a go forward basis be more
- 11:12disciplined about how we issue our micro strategy ATM.
- 11:17And here I want to provide guidelines to create more
- 11:20transparency with our shareholders, so you don't have
- 11:23to guess when a seller is going to tap the ATM, you'll know when
- 11:26we're going to utilize the ATM on a go forward basis.
- 11:30So first of all, below 1.0 XM NAV, we'll consider issuing
- 11:35credit to actually repurchase shares of micro strategy means
- 11:39we're trading below net asset value.
- 11:42And so it would make sense and be accretive to our shareholder
- 11:45base if we were to issue credit and buy back MSTR, the bar we're
- 11:49setting or issuing the ATM on a go forward basis at 2.5 XM NAV.
- 11:54And so that means then if you see our M NAV below 2.5 X, you
- 11:59would expect we would not issue our MSTRATM issue more equity
- 12:04for the purposes of buying Bitcoin.
- 12:06We would issue equity below 2.5 XM NAV to pay interest on our
- 12:11debt obligations, our convertible notes and also to
- 12:14fund preferred equity dividends. As you saw from Andrew earlier
- 12:18that amounts that we would have to issue compared to our asset
- 12:21base compared to amounts we've issued in the past and compared
- 12:24to our daily volume are are pretty small.
- 12:28When we get to 2.5 XM NAV and up to four XM NAV, we will
- 12:32opportunistically issue micro strategy equity to acquire
- 12:37Bitcoin and give you a sense 2 1/2 X M NAV to 4X M NAV.
- 12:44That's about 600 to $1000 of MSTR price.
- 12:48So there you have it. You heard it from the President
- 12:50and CEO of MicroStrategy himself kind of explaining, making it
- 12:54transparent. The strategy come depending on
- 12:58where the M NAV of of MicroStrategy currently is and
- 13:03what the different strategies are going to be and how they're
- 13:06going to plan accordingly. Now to answer the question to
- 13:10today's title of the video, do I think you should sell
- 13:13MicroStrategy? No, I think MicroStrategy is an
- 13:16incredibly solid company. They own 630,000 Bitcoin.
- 13:22I don't think they're going anywhere.
- 13:24Alex Leishman was talking about the necessity of someone having
- 13:29the the fundraising and finance, financing capability and genius.
- 13:37And obviously Saylor has. Proved.
- 13:40That where I think the risk remains.
- 13:42And I actually said this on stage at Baltic Honey Badger
- 13:46where I had the pleasure of moderating upon a panel with
- 13:48Peter Todd and Giacomo Zuko and the CEO of of of Bit Refill.
- 13:54And I said it, you know, because the name of the panel was
- 13:58unpopular, unpopular Bitcoin opinions.
- 14:02And I said, are, you know, Bitcoin treasury companies, the
- 14:06IC OS of this cycle? My personal opinion is that they
- 14:11are now once again, I'm repeating myself.
- 14:14Does this apply to MicroStrategy?
- 14:16No. Does this apply to Nakamoto?
- 14:19No. Does this apply to 21?
- 14:23No. Does this apply to the leading
- 14:25treasury companies in different countries like Metaplanet?
- 14:29No. But all the copycats that go
- 14:33further and further down the list, it does apply because they
- 14:38have to take on more risk, they have to take on more leverage.
- 14:44And once those dominoes start to fall, becomes a cascading
- 14:48effect. And you're starting to see that
- 14:50even with the price of Bitcoin going from $124,000 reaching an
- 14:56all time high to $113,000, which in the grand scheme of this
- 15:01isn't a big correction. Look at what's happening.
- 15:05Look at what's happening to the price of MicroStrategy.
- 15:07Look at what's happening in the confidence of MicroStrategy.
- 15:11Look at what's happening in terms of Microstrategies has to
- 15:17change its policy, right, obviously to protect itself.
- 15:21And then look at the reaction from investors.
- 15:25And this was just a 12,000% correction, which again, in the
- 15:30grand scheme of things, that bitcoins $113,000 price is not
- 15:35that big in percentage terms, right?
- 15:38So yeah, I mean, this is like. We we have.
- 15:45A pretty good record Opti tomorrow's Bitcoin use today.
- 15:50When this bear market does hit, I don't know if it's going to be
- 15:54in 2026. I don't know if it's going to be
- 15:56an extended bull market. But when this bear market does
- 15:59hit, these treasury companies, specifically the smaller ones
- 16:03like Alex Leishman just pointed out that are already trading
- 16:07below their M NAV. It doesn't make sense to own a
- 16:10treasury company at that point. The whole point of the M NAV is
- 16:14you're holding, you're holding a company that is valued at more
- 16:22than their Bitcoin holdings, so you're outperforming Bitcoin.
- 16:26That is the whole purpose of buying a Bitcoin treasury
- 16:30company. Because if you're not if, if
- 16:32that's not the purpose, then why buy the Bitcoin treasury company
- 16:35when you can just buy Bitcoin, right?
- 16:37So. People are using this to grow
- 16:39their Bitcoin stack outperform Bitcoin, which tends to happen
- 16:42in in in Bitcoin bull market cycles.
- 16:45Every cycle it's different. In 2017 it was the Icos, in 2021
- 16:50it was the layer ones, and in 2025 it's the Bitcoin treasury
- 16:54company. So every cycle there's this
- 16:56thing that outperforms Bitcoin in the short term, but then when
- 17:02the bear market inevitably hits A reckoning, a great reckoning
- 17:07is coming. Now.
- 17:08I think we're getting a small taste of it now.
- 17:11Do I think the bull market is over?
- 17:13I don't think so. And the reason for that is we
- 17:16have not entered A euphoria face.
- 17:19In fact, people are disillusioned with Bitcoin.
- 17:22Retail is not interested with Bitcoin.
- 17:24We have incredibly good news happening in the regulatory side
- 17:29of things. So to summarize, summarize it
- 17:33all up, weave it back in, then pass it on to Opti and of course
- 17:37our legendary guest today, the CEO of SAS Mining himself.
- 17:41We got Kent in the house. Do.
- 17:44You do I think you should sell a MicroStrategy?
- 17:46No, I think MicroStrategy is a fantastic company.
- 17:49Obviously, nothing replaces spot Bitcoin in self custody, but do
- 17:54I think owning a smaller Bitcoin treasury company that's not in
- 17:59the top three, do I think that's a good idea?
- 18:03Absolutely not. In fact, they might be the next
- 18:07catalyst for the next bull bear market to begin.
- 18:11Opti, what's your take? Yeah, great breakdown.
- 18:14Because a disclaimer here, you know, This is why I just buy
- 18:18Bitcoin because this is a lot more financial complications
- 18:22than than I understand it's way above my pay grade here.
- 18:26But I think the main take away here is not that MicroStrategy
- 18:31is at risk of basically being a rug pool or blowing up here.
- 18:36I I think he's the one that literally, I forget what the
- 18:39number was, but he was saying a while ago, like his liquidation
- 18:41price is below like the 2021 all time high.
- 18:47I think it was like down all the way to like 20 K like it's
- 18:49something ridiculous. So I don't think sailors going
- 18:52to get liquidated here. Like I don't think even if we go
- 18:56into a bear market right now currently that he would have any
- 18:59issues unless it went, you know, like something extremely low
- 19:03below last, you know, 2 bear markets ago.
- 19:06So I don't think there's a problem with strategy blowing up
- 19:08here. What I think is really going on
- 19:10here, he's really the Josh Mandel stuff.
- 19:13Look, Sailor did kind of, you know, for lack of better terms,
- 19:16go back on what he said he would never do literally a month ago.
- 19:20But I again, I think he knows what he's doing and I think he's
- 19:23doing this stuff in the face of what's going on.
- 19:26And it really reminds me of, I forget who was saying this a
- 19:30couple of weeks ago, but it's this idea that Wall Street is
- 19:33looking at what Sailor is doing with strategy and they're
- 19:36gunning for him. It's like it's basically like
- 19:38trying to, you know, liquidate shorts on on the Bitcoin price
- 19:41price. This is just like a leverage
- 19:43play. They don't want to see strategy
- 19:45succeed. And so right now, I think what
- 19:47is going on is they are actively trying to kind of mess up his
- 19:51stock price so that more people kind of stay away.
- 19:54Because if Sailor does continue to succeed right now, it really
- 19:58is going to be, you know, like cake on on Wall Street's face
- 20:02here. They've been telling us for
- 20:03years, bitcoins trash. They've been telling us for
- 20:05years not to buy Bitcoin. Sailor comes out, literally
- 20:08blows everyone out of the water and they're pretty much hunting.
- 20:11Right now, like they are market hunting right now on strategy
- 20:15now. It is interesting to see a lot
- 20:16of Bitcoiners kind of flip. And like Nico, you said it, I
- 20:20think what is happening is people are essentially losing
- 20:23trust in what sailors doing. Maybe, maybe sailors pushed a
- 20:27little hard and now people that are shareholders in
- 20:29MicroStrategy are starting to look at this and they're like
- 20:32something's funny going on now. Is that a culmination of sailor
- 20:35actually doing something nefarious?
- 20:37I don't think so. I think what is going on really
- 20:40is the Bitcoin price guy. Everything revolves around the
- 20:42Bitcoin price. And you, if you've been in
- 20:44Bitcoin long enough, you see this happen all the time.
- 20:48When the price kind of does this stagnation or it kind of dips a
- 20:51little bit, everyone starts attacking each other and that's
- 20:54just like part of the market. That's just what you have to
- 20:56deal with. And I think right now, since we
- 20:59are moving into bigger numbers, we are moving into a bigger
- 21:02arena, there is a lot more at stake.
- 21:05I think we are starting to see kind of the infighting and
- 21:08people essentially eating themselves right now.
- 21:11Now again you. Know.
- 21:13What? I didn't even say anything.
- 21:15I said eating each other. That's that's that's minor.
- 21:18Anyways, I think you you are starting.
- 21:22More in a metaphoric sense. What is?
- 21:24What is that? That was a.
- 21:25Metaphor. What are we talking about here?
- 21:28I think, I think you're seeing that there is a lot of concern
- 21:32right now on where we are in the cycle and like I said yesterday
- 21:36does feel kind of like a bear traps playing out.
- 21:38I was even telling Kent before the show.
- 21:40I'm like, look, I'm as bullish as anyone, but I am starting to
- 21:44get a little nervous on what's going on.
- 21:46It is almost feeling a little double toppy here and maybe this
- 21:50is just my PTSD kind of, you know, showing its head right now
- 21:54based on the last cycle. But I really don't think there
- 21:58is anything to be concerned with what Sailor's done.
- 22:01Again, he has set up his financials at MicroStrategy to
- 22:05pretty much withstand anything like damn near everything
- 22:08besides some catastrophic Black Swan.
- 22:10It looks like strategy is going to be able to kind of, you know,
- 22:14weather the storm. So I, I think what we're seeing
- 22:17is, is maybe that like distrust because he did kind of go back
- 22:21on what he said, though he has been saying for a while at his
- 22:24discretion. So I, I think that I think what
- 22:28is happening is sailors probably on the defensive right now and
- 22:32he's seeing like they are trying to kind of dump the strategy
- 22:37stock right now, the stock price right now.
- 22:39And he's, he, you know, he's fighting for his life here.
- 22:42And I, I think he's going to win at the end, to be honest, like I
- 22:45think he's going to win. But This is why I hold Bitcoin
- 22:48because I know I'm not smart enough to fully understand
- 22:51everything going on. So I just buy Bitcoin.
- 22:54I just hold Bitcoin. I take it into self custody
- 22:57because when you buy these products, there is more risk and
- 23:01you have to understand that risk.
- 23:03And you know, I haven't done enough study to fully understand
- 23:07what sailors been doing. I've been trying to kind of
- 23:09catch up to this. But again, I've learned through
- 23:11about the traditional financial system through Bitcoin.
- 23:14So, you know, I'm still kind of catching up on exactly what he's
- 23:17doing, but I think his products are being tailored for, for
- 23:21something that, you know, we don't really see going on right
- 23:24now. Maybe you kind of understand
- 23:26what he's doing on a very like rudimentary level.
- 23:28But I, I don't think there's AI, don't think there's any issue
- 23:31here with strategy, but it is interesting to see kind of a lot
- 23:35of shareholders be like, yo, this is feeling funny.
- 23:38I don't know if you guys saw on Twitter, but we've seen some
- 23:40notorious shit corners come out and say strategy's a Ponzi
- 23:43scheme. And then like 3 hours later, he
- 23:45had an official lawyer, you know, lawyer PR readout.
- 23:50So it does seem like people are being paid to fudge strategy,
- 23:53which makes me think that this is kind of a defensive move from
- 23:57Sailor himself. Yeah, and and sailors endured
- 24:00worse guys like back in I never forget.
- 24:03Back at I can't I believe you were there at Pacific Bitcoin
- 24:072021 or 2022 in Los Angeles. I never forget that Sailor was
- 24:14paying his price of tuition. This is the first time that
- 24:17MicroStrategy bought exposure to Bitcoin and they were down like
- 24:2150 to 60% on their investment. That Sailor was down billions of
- 24:25dollars. And I remember he was sitting in
- 24:26the VIP section in the front row staying silent and just watching
- 24:31every single one of the presentations.
- 24:33And then two or three years later when the bull market
- 24:36started to pick up again, the company 25X in market cap and 25
- 24:41XI mean a 25 bagger, you know, over a short period of time.
- 24:46So sailor, you know, he's he's he's a he's a veteran in this.
- 24:51He's been here before. He's been in these situations
- 24:54before. And this is volatility.
- 24:56This comes with the volatility. This comes with buying exposure
- 25:01to the Bitcoin treasury place. It comes with the upside of
- 25:05potentially outperforming Bitcoin, but it also comes with
- 25:08the downside of potentially not outperforming Bitcoin and ending
- 25:13up with with less Bitcoin, which again goes with what Opti
- 25:17saying. Sometimes it's just better to
- 25:19stay humble, stack sat, stay solvent, buy Bitcoin, mine
- 25:24Bitcoin and put that Bitcoin into self custody.
- 25:26Kent, what are your thoughts on this, my friend?
- 25:28Welcome. Welcome to the show.
- 25:31Any thanks? Good to be here boys.
- 25:33So I think the, the quick thing is, you know, you, you play Fiat
- 25:38games, you win Fiat prizes, right?
- 25:41And I think this is my third cycle and I am bored as F with
- 25:47the Bitcoin treasury companies. I just find this the most boring
- 25:50cycle guys. And granted, I'm also in the
- 25:53mining side of things. So I go out and find energy to
- 25:57figure out how people can mine and acquire Bitcoin the the way
- 26:00Satoshi stacked his sets, right? So I'm I'm very much like a
- 26:04brother from another mother Opti, when you were saying, you
- 26:07know, not the best guy to ask about this stuff, but at the end
- 26:10of the day, I will make it just a couple of just high level
- 26:12points, right? First of all, this is a
- 26:15centralized investment. Bitcoin is not.
- 26:18And I think, you know, the sailor is the sovereign of his
- 26:21Kingdom here. He decided to change the rules.
- 26:23I wouldn't speculate as to why he did that, but he's the
- 26:26sovereign, right? And and that's the risk you have
- 26:28with investing in something you don't really control.
- 26:30Bitcoin is for enemies and and I feel a much better investment as
- 26:35a result. Secondly, you know, when I look
- 26:39at the game that's being played, I I think the Bitcoin community
- 26:42is just completely out of its depths.
- 26:44Wall Street has been a specialized in playing a game of
- 26:48gotcha for hundreds of years. And I think that you know when
- 26:52when you don't recognize who the sucker in the room is, you're
- 26:55probably the sucker. And so I feel like I like that.
- 26:57So I'm going to stay out of that game.
- 26:59But that whole game itself is meant for, you know, basically
- 27:04picking Fiat off of one another. And I think it's going to end in
- 27:08some devastation. To your point, Nico, I
- 27:10completely agree. It feels like the ICO era with
- 27:14all the people that aren't, you know, those top dogs, you know,
- 27:19the other 80% are going to get washed out and they'll be
- 27:21consolidation and the other 20%. So, you know, I, I'm not
- 27:25interested in playing Fiat games and earning Fiat prizes.
- 27:28I'm, I'm interested in stacking stats, helping people stack
- 27:31stats the way Satoshi did through mining them.
- 27:33And you know, I, I, I hope it's less boring and I'll give you 1
- 27:37thesis that I've had for a little while.
- 27:39Let's see if it plays out. It'll be my thesis until it
- 27:41doesn't. But it seems like the last cycle
- 27:43was D5 degeneracy blew us up. You know, the whole Ethereum,
- 27:48you know, Solano, like all that, all that BS.
- 27:52The cycle before that was ICO degeneracy.
- 27:56This cycle feels like it's stratified degeneracy.
- 27:59It's going to blow us up. And I feel like the next cycle
- 28:01is going to be sovereign degeneracy that'll blow us up.
- 28:05And then and then we'll be off to the races and in a grand new
- 28:08world. But that's, that's my current
- 28:10take on things. And I'm just going to stay away
- 28:12and let let let the house burn itself down.
- 28:14Absolutely guys, Bitcoin in self custody, you will be OK and you
- 28:20know to each of their own guys, we at the end of the day, guys,
- 28:24we are not we are we are freedom Maxis at heart.
- 28:28So you have every right to do whatever you want with your
- 28:32money. If you want to buy and what's
- 28:33the latest Pepe or whatever doge or you know or you know
- 28:39whatever. If you want to do that with with
- 28:41your money, that's fine. You you have every right to set
- 28:44your money on fire. That is completely your right.
- 28:46What we advocate for on Simply Bitcoin is just buy Bitcoin, put
- 28:50in self custody. Your life will get progressively
- 28:53better over time as the prices of goods get cheaper for you
- 28:56over time because you're living on a deflationary unit.
- 29:00And that's just a reality, right?
- 29:02That's what we advocate for. Maybe we're simple minded, maybe
- 29:05we're missing these these huge gains.
- 29:07But anyways, guys, before we jump into today's show, I do
- 29:11want to give an incredibly special shout out to Simply
- 29:16Bitcoins lead sponsor, the best place to build your automatic
- 29:24sub point stack. Who am I talking about?
- 29:27I'm talking about bitcoinwell.com.
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- 29:33Well, it goes, it goes. It aligns with our ethos when
- 29:37you buy Bitcoin on Bitcoin well, as soon as the funds clear, go
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- 29:42They don't even allow you to leave the Bitcoin on the
- 29:44exchange. In fact, it's the only non
- 29:46custodial Bitcoin on ramp in the United States.
- 29:50Head over to bitcoinwell.com/simply today and
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- 30:00individuals, trust organizations, you want a
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- 30:12You have to check out bitcoinwell.com/OTC.
- 30:17What are you waiting for? Go to bitcoinwell.com/simply
- 30:21today and stay tuned to the end of the show where we're will
- 30:24where we will be giving away some Satoshi's.
- 30:28So guys, no more delay. Let's start the show.
- 30:31We will be right back in just a second.
- 30:40I want to give a shout out to our partner Stamp Seed.
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- 30:46Are your seed phrases really secure?
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- 31:42and use promo code simply to get 15% off anything on the Stamp
- 31:47se-ed.com store. All right, everybody, we are
- 31:54back, Opti. I can't, I don't have control
- 31:57over the QR code. Could you pull that down?
- 32:00At the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is $113,160 block
- 32:05height 910,769 sats per dollar, 884 sats per dollar Market cap 2
- 32:14point 2.25 trillion Bitcoin versus gold market cap 9.59%
- 32:21decline from all time high -9.1%.
- 32:24So if you're buying Bitcoin right now, you're getting it at
- 32:27a 10% discount. That's a nice discount.
- 32:30You can get yourself on Bitcoin right now and the realized
- 32:33monetary inflation is sitting at .84%.
- 32:38Now the topic I want to talk about today again, we're we're
- 32:43freaking out a little bit. Bitcoin goes down 10%.
- 32:46People are saying, Oh my God, is the bear market here is it's
- 32:48coming? Is it back?
- 32:50What I will say is I don't know guys, I, I don't, I don't, I
- 32:55don't feel the euphoria. I never felt the euphoria.
- 32:57I never saw the mania. And here's Svetsky and he's
- 33:05quote tweeting, this has got to be the weakest bull run in the
- 33:09history of BTCBTC was at 97 K in November of last year.
- 33:15And here we are at 116 K almost a year later in a bull run.
- 33:21Svetsky replies. This is a good sign.
- 33:24People don't actually realize that the bull run hasn't started
- 33:27yet. And I mean, I've said this, I
- 33:30actually posted this and the tweet I think got 1400 likes.
- 33:34So it clearly resonated with a lot of people.
- 33:37And I said, guys, like, we're not in a bull run right now.
- 33:41Like Trump's inauguration, the price of Bitcoin was at
- 33:44$109,000, we're at $113,000. Eight months later, 8 months,
- 33:53that's a $4000 increase. What, what type of BS bull run
- 33:58is this? There's this isn't a bull run.
- 34:02This isn't a bull run. So like, again, you know, you
- 34:05kind of need a bull run to enter into a bear, a bear market,
- 34:10right? You kind of need the bulls to
- 34:12have their have a you kind of need that mania.
- 34:14You kind of need that, that run up of the price.
- 34:16Now, to be fair, to be fair, we did go from like 16 K, which I
- 34:21believe was the bottom to 125 K over a span of like 2 years,
- 34:25right? But it was a slow crawl up,
- 34:28right? And over the last year, it's
- 34:30been basically a crap. Now what I told you guys
- 34:33yesterday and I'm repeating myself again today is like the
- 34:39longer Bitcoin crab solid eight word that I just completely make
- 34:44up made-up. But it makes sense if you know
- 34:47what I'm talking about, the stronger the foundation so that
- 34:53when we eventually do run up, it's it it won't correct as bad
- 35:00because what happens with the manias?
- 35:02Is that if it if? Bitcoin shoots up from 113,000
- 35:06to half a million in six months. The correction on that, it's
- 35:11going to be like an 80% correction.
- 35:14Opti. People are saying I'm cutting
- 35:15out. How's my audio?
- 35:16Now you sound good to me. Apparently they just need to
- 35:19refresh the page. It's something weird happened on
- 35:21YouTube. So anyways, and I appreciate the
- 35:25Super chat. Ron P Thank you for the $10 cold
- 35:28storage. This is the way.
- 35:29I completely agree. Not your keys, not your cheese.
- 35:32Now moving on to the next post, do you think the four year cycle
- 35:36is over and here it is comparing the different cycles where we
- 35:42are, we are right on track. We are right on track, right
- 35:47compared to every other cycle. In fact, in 2017 we are higher
- 35:53comparatively because this. Adjusts to of course the prices
- 35:57and all that stuff comparatively.
- 36:00We're right on track with every other cycle in Bitcoin's
- 36:03history, so again, this is not out of the norm.
- 36:06Another reminder that I'll give you guys.
- 36:08It is quite normal in bull runs to have 20 to 30% corrections
- 36:14back in the day. And when me and Opti got in the
- 36:17game 20/16/2017, dude, the corrections were like 50%.
- 36:23They were effing gnarly bro. They were crazy.
- 36:26And they happened like in like a matter of a month, right?
- 36:29So you know, a 10% correction, like I'll say like, like dude,
- 36:34you know, make yourself stronger buttercup, you sweat.
- 36:40You're not used to this. What's going on with you guys
- 36:45anyhow? So I love, I love this kind of
- 36:49animation that APSK 32 designed and it kind of breaks it down.
- 36:54Bitcoin power curve time contours.
- 36:56And he again, this is how he compares the different cycles.
- 37:00And as you can see, if you lay it out, ladies and gentlemen,
- 37:03like we're right on track. And again, it shows if Bitcoin
- 37:07performs to previous cycles. So if it performs based on the
- 37:1120/17/2013 cycle, it would hit around 200,000.
- 37:16If it performed based on the 20/20/21 cycle would hit between
- 37:20202150K. And if it performed like 2017,
- 37:24comparatively, it would hit closer to $300,000.
- 37:28So we're right on track. We are right on track.
- 37:31And historically, another thing that I'll say before I pass it
- 37:34on to Opt Kent is Septembers historically for Bitcoin have
- 37:40not been so good. Historically, Septembers have
- 37:45been down months. You could see.
- 37:48Don't take my word for it. Don't trust verify.
- 37:50Take a look at it. Take a look at September Bitcoin
- 37:53performance in September. Throughout the years it's tended
- 37:57to dump Kent. What are your thoughts on this,
- 37:59my friend? I know yet you're in the mining
- 38:02utopia. I know that you've reached
- 38:04mining Bitcoin Zen and all you care about is deploying here.
- 38:09I have to be optic. You make me full screen.
- 38:12All you care about is deploying the hash rates and making the
- 38:17Bitcoin network stronger and tapping into those stranded
- 38:21energy sources, and you're tapped in to the Bitcoin mining
- 38:26energy ecosystem that is distributed worldwide.
- 38:30And I know that you're not really paying attention to this
- 38:32stuff, but I want to get your thoughts anyway, Kent.
- 38:37Yeah, you got me, bro. I'm just totally send out at all
- 38:39times. I am the network.
- 38:41No total, total kidding. You know, I've I've, I've mind
- 38:45melded with the network. Not at all, not at all.
- 38:48So my thoughts on this are like, so for the first time in the
- 38:52last couple months, I've actually started to lean
- 38:54towards, well, maybe the cycle is lengthening.
- 38:57You know, I, I think all these Fiat games that are going on
- 39:01with the Bitcoin treasury companies, they are changing
- 39:03things. It's a new dynamic and every
- 39:06single cycle is being the third one I've been in.
- 39:08I got involved about the same time you, you, you boys both did
- 39:12and, and this cycle is like the others in that every cycle
- 39:16there's some there's a new dynamic that you sort of have to
- 39:18account for and sort of figure out where it's going.
- 39:20And, and it sort of feels like every cycle you sort of tricked
- 39:24as to when it's really going to break up.
- 39:26But the way I'm currently thinking about it is if we don't
- 39:29start to get a euphoria run by the end of September, then my
- 39:33thesis of like us hitting this the same four year cycle, which
- 39:36should be October, November peak is going to be wrong.
- 39:40And I don't see without euphoria, I don't see a, a
- 39:44serious bear market incoming, just straight up.
- 39:46So as a result, that means to me, it's going to be a
- 39:50lengthening cycle. So what basically next couple
- 39:53months are going to are going to play it out for me if we're if
- 39:56we're going to do the typical four year price cycle or not.
- 39:59And to be fair, every other cycle so far has had euphoria
- 40:02moments before this. And that's what feels different
- 40:05this cycle is it's just been a slow grind up and to the right.
- 40:09And we haven't had those pockets of euphoria and those wild
- 40:12volatile pull backs along the way.
- 40:14I think what the biggest pull back so far is like 20% in the
- 40:18last two years. I mean, it's been very muted.
- 40:21And that's a weird dynamic and I don't know exactly how it plays
- 40:23out, but it's the four year price cycle until it isn't.
- 40:27Absolutely. Let's see.
- 40:28We're going to find out, ladies and gentlemen, in the next.
- 40:33Exactly. We've said this yesterday, Ken,
- 40:35Actually, I'm, I'm very, very glad we're kind of aligned in
- 40:37this, in this thesis. We're going to find out in the
- 40:42next this the, the last part of this year, whether the Bitcoin
- 40:46cycles are intact or are we heading into uncharted
- 40:50territory. We're about to find out if that
- 40:53is the case or not. Opti, what's your quick take?
- 40:58Yeah. So I mean, what do I know what's
- 41:01going on with the price, right? I'm, I'm watching it like
- 41:04everyone else. I do have this a similar
- 41:08sentiment to kind of what Stetsky had.
- 41:10It does feel, and I, and I've been saying this for a while,
- 41:12like Q3Q4 is going to be bullish and I'm, I'm still convicted on
- 41:17that, that kind of perspective. But as I said earlier, and I, I
- 41:21still have my friends DM ING me telling me their chart boy
- 41:24stuff. It's, it's going down, bro, if
- 41:26we close where we are now by the end of the week, the weekly's
- 41:30looking horrible, you know, anyways, all that to say,
- 41:32essentially what I said a minute ago, it's like I am starting to
- 41:36get a little nervous on what's going on with the price action
- 41:38here because I, I do have the 2021 PTSD still.
- 41:42And you know, you get a little, you get a little hype when the
- 41:45price goes up and then you get some really strong kind of
- 41:48movements down and you're like, oh man, is it over?
- 41:50Like I, I say it ain't so say it's not over, but I do like
- 41:54some hopium stuff on Twitter. I, I do follow some, you know,
- 41:58TA you guys some analysis stuff just just for like shits and
- 42:01giggles. And from the kind of the
- 42:04indicators and stuff that I'm seeing, a lot of people are
- 42:06saying maybe this is just my bias.
- 42:08Maybe I'm just confirming my bias.
- 42:10I want, I want to believe that we're going to get a very strong
- 42:14end of the year. There's, there's some, you know,
- 42:17you can make a case that the bull run hasn't started.
- 42:19You can make the case that we are about to RIP and we are
- 42:21going to go a lot higher. And so I don't know what do I
- 42:25know? I'm just here, you know,
- 42:28covering the Bitcoin news and who knows what's going to happen
- 42:31with the price. But if it does go down, I guess
- 42:34you know well, I'm I'm sure the bear market won't be as long and
- 42:37prolonged as it's been in the past, considering all of the new
- 42:40attention that's Bitcoin has been getting.
- 42:43And if that's the case, we get some cheap sets or as we kind of
- 42:47been saying, we really won't know until the end of the year
- 42:50what is going on or rather maybe you know the start of Q3, which
- 42:53is September 30th. So if what Kent is saying and we
- 42:58get this like sideways action, this very boring stepwise
- 43:01function that would fundamentally change what's
- 43:03going on in the, the market structure of Bitcoin.
- 43:07And you could probably attribute that to the new entrance in the
- 43:10space. And I, I wouldn't be mad about
- 43:12some kind of sideways action here.
- 43:14I think I have the, you know, 2 PTSD's playing at the same time,
- 43:18the 2021 double top and then that bear market that followed.
- 43:22And I'm like, that was just brutal to build a company
- 43:24through. So please can we not do that
- 43:26again? Can the can the Bitcoin God's
- 43:28here price God make sure that this pumps please, you know,
- 43:31like just please me familia that that was rough.
- 43:35Oh, man. All right, everybody, it's going
- 43:37to be an incredible show. We still got so much stuff to
- 43:39cover. We got Kent in the house, ladies
- 43:43and gentlemen, and we're going to be talking about bringing
- 43:47Bitcoin back to its roots. Ladies and gentlemen, there was
- 43:50once a day that the there was one.
- 43:53Once Upon a time, there was a day that the only way that you
- 43:57could acquire Bitcoin was by mining it.
- 44:00Those days are long, long gone. We have forgotten the past and
- 44:04it might be a good idea to to to go back to our roots.
- 44:08So we're going to talk to Kent about just that SAS mining,
- 44:12Bitcoin mining as a service, you got to get hold of those wild,
- 44:16wild sats. So we're going to talk about
- 44:18during the cult, we're going to talk about that during the
- 44:20culture segment and then during the news segment.
- 44:23Bo Hines, That's right. The White House advisor, the
- 44:28White House to be specific, the White House Crypto Council
- 44:31executive director that resigns 3 weeks ago has officially
- 44:37joined Tether. This is huge, massive news.
- 44:41We're going to cover all the details, the analysis right
- 44:44after our break. We'll be right back in just a
- 44:47second. I want to give a shout out to
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- 46:39All right everybody, we are back.
- 46:41So what is the breaking news? Breaking news, this is Bo Hines
- 46:46own personal X account. Thrilled to join Tether.
- 46:50Thanks to Paulo, the CEO of Tether and the team for the warm
- 46:54welcome. Excited to help build an
- 46:57ecosystem of digital asset products that set the standard
- 47:01for compliance and innovation, empowering US consumers and
- 47:05reshaping our financial system. The best is yet to come.
- 47:11Paolo, the CEO of of Tether also talks about this and he says
- 47:16Tether hires Bo Hines as strategy advisor for digital
- 47:20assets and US expansion. Bo has demonstrated incredible
- 47:24leadership within the US administration, where he was
- 47:27instrumental in advancing initiatives to foster innovation
- 47:31in digital assets, develop clear guardrails for stablecoin
- 47:35issuers, and build collaborative relationship friendships between
- 47:39government and the blockchain industry.
- 47:41On behalf of the company, we are all thrilled on his decision to
- 47:45join our organization and to contribute to building our once
- 47:49in a century company. Welcome, Bo.
- 47:53So what is the significance of this news?
- 47:58Reuters even wrote an article about it.
- 48:01So I have a breakdown for you guys.
- 48:03Tether is the world's largest stable coin issuer, and they
- 48:08just hired Bo Hines, former White House crypto advisor.
- 48:12And it's more significant than it looks.
- 48:14Heinz wasn't just any bureaucrat.
- 48:17He helped shape major US crypto policy, including the Genius
- 48:21Act, a framework for stable coin regulation, and was a key player
- 48:25in the White House Digital Asset strategy.
- 48:27Now he's moving straight from the government into the private
- 48:31sector. Well, who where where he'll
- 48:34steer Tethers US expansion. So what does this mean?
- 48:38First, it shows Tether is serious about Washington.
- 48:41They're not just fighting regulation anymore.
- 48:43They're embedding themselves inside the process.
- 48:46That's right, the Tether guys follow.
- 48:49And and Giancarlo are hardcore bitcoiners.
- 48:53Yes, tab tethers a stable coin, but in their hearts of hearts,
- 48:58they are Bitcoin Maxis. Never forget that with Heinz on
- 49:03board, Tether gains direct access to the same playbook he
- 49:07used to design the rules. Second, it's proof that the
- 49:11revolving door in Washington, something we usually associate
- 49:15with the defense industry, is now alive in the crypto and
- 49:19Bitcoin industry. For decade, Pentagon insiders
- 49:23would leave the government to work for defense contractors.
- 49:26Now we're seeing the same pattern in digital assets
- 49:29regulators and policy architects stepping into private firms that
- 49:34stand to benefit from the very rules they once drafted.
- 49:38This has two implications. On one hand, it gives Tether
- 49:42powerful influence and legitimacy in the US market,
- 49:46potentially paving way for a regulated dollar back stable
- 49:49coin roll pull out in the coming year.
- 49:52On the other hand, it raises real questions about
- 49:55concentration of power, whether regulation is being shaped to
- 49:59serve the public or the biggest player in the industry.
- 50:02The bottom line is Tethers move isn't just a hire.
- 50:05It marks a new phase where crypto Bitcoin isn't an outsider
- 50:10industry anymore. It's playing Washington's oldest
- 50:13and most effective game. And this is what I keep echoing
- 50:17to you guys and repeating myself over and over about over and
- 50:21over again. If you're not in the room,
- 50:23you're not in the deal. This is how the traditional
- 50:26financial system works too. As soon as OK, all of the last
- 50:32treasury secretaries, right? Where do you think they came
- 50:36from? They came from Wall Street.
- 50:38After they're done being Treasury Secretary, where do you
- 50:41think they go back? They go to Wall Street.
- 50:45So and then what do you think happens while they're in
- 50:48government? They probably set up certain
- 50:51types of regulations, right, that, you know, might benefit
- 50:55the the previous firms that they were with, or they might set up
- 51:00a regulation that will benefit them once they get out of
- 51:04office. And it seems that same revolving
- 51:06door is now applying to our industry.
- 51:09Now you would say, OK, but Nico, that's terrible.
- 51:12Like like, you know, like, like this is like this is this is
- 51:17what we've all complained about. No, ladies, ladies and
- 51:20gentlemen, because now we are part of the system itself.
- 51:23Now we are literally infiltrating the US government
- 51:27in a legal manner and we have Bitcoiners that are representing
- 51:32the interests of, we have Bitcoiners in office, in
- 51:37regulatory positions that are representing the interest and
- 51:41they have power that are representing the interests of
- 51:44Bitcoiners all around the United States.
- 51:46The United States also leads the world when it comes to
- 51:50innovation and regulation. So if the United States
- 51:54continues down this path, other countries will follow because if
- 51:58they don't follow, they will get left behind.
- 52:01This was a, this was a major motivation as to why Trump was
- 52:05so open to Bitcoin in the 1st place.
- 52:09I'm paraphrasing here, but he basically said, listen, if we
- 52:12don't get ahead with Bitcoin and AI, China will, right?
- 52:18So this is the game theory playing, playing out and this is
- 52:22our industry entrenching itself in Washington, DC, which at the
- 52:27end of the day, from a regulatory perspective is going
- 52:31to be very, very beneficial for you.
- 52:35And I know it has, like, all these, like, negative
- 52:40associations with it because you've heard that phrase, that
- 52:44revolving door in Washington, but it's always related to Wall
- 52:48Street. It's always related to, you
- 52:50know, the defense industry. And if you're not an insider in
- 52:54those industries, you're not benefiting from this.
- 52:58But the beauty of Bitcoin is I've told you guys and this is
- 53:01something that Max Kaiser always says and I'm officially
- 53:05nominating Bo Hines for the Bitcoin employee of the year for
- 53:09August of 2025, right? The Bitcoin incentives are so
- 53:14that Michael Saylors incentives are the same as the pleb that
- 53:19owns .001 Bitcoin. We all want Bitcoin to go up and
- 53:24we all benefit equally from Bitcoin going up, and that is in
- 53:29stark contrast with Wall Street, and that is in stark contrast
- 53:33with the defense industry. That only benefits a few elite
- 53:37insiders. Anyways, that's my summary of
- 53:40today's news. Kent.
- 53:41I want to get your thoughts then Opti.
- 53:45Yeah, man, I think Tether is one of, if not the most important
- 53:49player in our ecosystem. And I'll explain why, because
- 53:52what I what I see, and I've lived outside the US for more
- 53:54than a decade now, is the dollar is the number one brand on the
- 53:58planet, full stop. Everybody outside the US wants
- 54:02the dollar. That's hard to understand if you
- 54:04live inside the US, just how well branded the dollar itself
- 54:08is. And what I see is that USDT
- 54:10Tether is an upgrade in dollar technology for everybody outside
- 54:15the US. So as a result, it's becoming
- 54:18the next euro dollar system and the federal government is going
- 54:21to be able to sell more debt to keep alive the dollar system.
- 54:24So I think the consequence of Tether right now cannot be
- 54:28understated. I think actually we're going to
- 54:30see other Fiat currencies topple as a result of Tether getting a
- 54:34pass. And So what Bo Hines has done,
- 54:37yes, revolving door, I'm going to disagree with you.
- 54:39I don't like revolving doors. I don't care if it's crypto,
- 54:42defense industry, Pharmaceutical industry or whatever.
- 54:44I think it's a grift. It sucks.
- 54:46We should get rid of it completely.
- 54:47I don't know how to either. So it kind of is what it is.
- 54:50And this might be something we have to accept and live with,
- 54:53but I think it sucks. But I think what Bo Lyons did
- 54:56was incredibly important for all of us in the industry, which is
- 55:00ultimately setting up the the the major showdown that's going
- 55:03to happen. Yes, we're putting Bitcoiners
- 55:05closer to the government and the seats of power through all these
- 55:08actions to your point, Nico, and we're setting up the ultimate
- 55:11showdown, which is green versus orange, the dollar versus
- 55:14Bitcoin. And the beauty of Tether
- 55:17adoption is it gets people to understand how to manage private
- 55:22keys, how to work with blockchain based technology and
- 55:25how to move money outside the banks.
- 55:27Now, as long as as we don't have to KYC too hard for everybody
- 55:31outside the US, I think that adoption happens because the
- 55:35beauty of tether outside the US is people can transact dollars
- 55:40between each other and a frictionless way.
- 55:43As soon as KYC clampdowns occur for folks outside the US, that
- 55:47thesis that I've got may, may start to get eroded.
- 55:49But at the end of the day, Tether growing in strength here
- 55:53is a good thing for the US economy.
- 55:56It's a good thing for the adoption of private key based
- 55:59technology, and it moves all of us one step closer to hyper
- 56:03bitcoinization. Who knows how far out that is?
- 56:06But what I see is I don't like the revolving door aspect of
- 56:11what Bo Hines is doing here. And I got to tip my hat to him
- 56:14because he helped do something that was incredibly important
- 56:17for our future as an industry. I I I I completely agree.
- 56:21I think Bo Hines definitely helped a lot.
- 56:24And regarding the the revolving door aspect of it can't, It's
- 56:28like if we don't play the game, then you know, the other guys
- 56:34play the game. You know it's not, it's not
- 56:36Freddy. But you know what?
- 56:39I didn't go to the defense industry for a reason.
- 56:41Somebody can play that game, but I'm going to just not choose to.
- 56:44It's it's, it's, it's my own personal code of ethics.
- 56:48Well, yeah, I mean, I mean me and me and Opti too, right?
- 56:51Like unless Opti you you want to move to DC and rebrand simply
- 56:57simply dollar. Simply dollar just make it green
- 57:01instead of orange. Anyways, Opti, what are your
- 57:04thoughts before simply Fiat? Exactly, Opti, what are your
- 57:08thoughts on this brother before we move on to the culture?
- 57:11Yeah, I'd I'd agree with what Kent was saying.
- 57:13That's that's what I'm seeing as well.
- 57:16And when when we heard the news of Bohein stepping down, I said
- 57:19it's gonna be very interesting to see where he ends up.
- 57:22And depending on where he ends up is going to kind of show us
- 57:27whether this is a bullish move or rather the US kind of
- 57:30regulations is bullish for us. Or if he didn't go into like a
- 57:34crypto company or Bitcoin company, it would really kind of
- 57:38be one of those more negative takes of like he, you know, he
- 57:42resigned maybe in unfavorable terms here and he just kind of
- 57:45left because there was a lot of speculation of what's going on
- 57:48last week, especially with Scott Besson.
- 57:50You know, we were all wondering exactly what's going on with the
- 57:52strategic Bitcoin reserve, whether they're going to buy
- 57:55more, did we get rug pulled and stuff.
- 57:57And I said at the time, it's going to be interesting where
- 57:59Bohind ends up in the private sector.
- 58:02And if he's not in a Bitcoin company, then maybe he left in
- 58:04unfavorable terms. Now we know for a fact like he's
- 58:07going to Tether and exactly what Ken said said they have
- 58:11telegraphed this move for a long time.
- 58:13Look Bohind sets sets up the regulatory clarity that is
- 58:16needed for essentially you know Bitcoin to take over the world.
- 58:20Well, in reality, it's a stepwise function through
- 58:23stablecoin. Do we know what they want to do
- 58:25Trump investment have been saying this for a while.
- 58:27They want to maintain dollar dominance like Kent explained
- 58:30we've been explaining this on the show for a long time.
- 58:32Stablecoins are one of the main buyers right now of treasuries
- 58:36of government debt. They need to expand the debt so
- 58:40that they can, you know, continue the train to go as it's
- 58:43been going. What I'm hearing here guys, is
- 58:47one thing. They are going to debase the
- 58:50shit out of Fiat currencies. They're going to use stable
- 58:53coins to do this. Yes, it's not pretty.
- 58:55Yes, what's going on is something that you probably
- 58:58don't want to just have your friends and families get wrecked
- 59:01by, but they are telegraphing this.
- 59:03We know where this is going. They need to maintain, or rather
- 59:07they need to up the ante in interest in Treasuries.
- 59:11And as of now, no one wants to buy them.
- 59:13Stable coins are the main buyers of this.
- 59:15We've heard them say something, I forget what the number is, but
- 59:18something ridiculous that like, you know, stable coins are going
- 59:21to be a trillion dollar market here for Treasuries and this is
- 59:25all being telegraphed very clearly of what's going on.
- 59:28So I think the fact that Bo Hines did leave the digital
- 59:32assets working group going to tether, we know what they want
- 59:35to do. This is very clear as day here
- 59:37at this point. But as we always talk about the
- 59:40Trojan horse is Bitcoin here. So any thoughts of the US not
- 59:44embracing Bitcoin is just wholly naive.
- 59:46Like they are going to pump stable coins to the moon.
- 59:50Like I think we are underestimating how high they
- 59:53want Bitcoin to go because they we need Bitcoin price to go
- 59:56higher for them to kind of offset all of their debt right
- 59:59now. So like, yes, maybe you're not
- 1:00:01the biggest fan of stable coins, but this is extremely bullish
- 1:00:04for Bitcoin. This is this is going to take us
- 1:00:06in freaking, you know, past the moon to like Pluto, if it was
- 1:00:10still a planet like this is going to pump Bitcoin so high.
- 1:00:14It's going to be ridiculous. Well, whether this is going to
- 1:00:16happen this year is is up for debate, but we do know what
- 1:00:20they're going to do. They're going to literally
- 1:00:22debase the currency. They basically.
- 1:00:25Just exported government debt from just U.S. citizens globally
- 1:00:29U.S. dollar dominance it's going to basically consolidate now
- 1:00:33it's probably going to be stronger than ever before, but
- 1:00:36at that same time Bitcoin as a Trojan horse bitcoins going to
- 1:00:39get out there now everyone is going to basically have a
- 1:00:42choice. You're either going to go into
- 1:00:43stablecoins or you're going to take a step into stablecoins and
- 1:00:46then you're going to eventually end up in the Bitcoin.
- 1:00:47Like this is going to pump the Bitcoin market cap to freaking
- 1:00:50levels that we we couldn't even imagine here.
- 1:00:53So like, yes, it is a a little bittersweet in in regards to
- 1:00:56like they're going to debase the crap out of the Fiat currencies
- 1:01:00here. But as Kent was kind of
- 1:01:01explaining, and we've been kind of going through these thought
- 1:01:03experiments on the show for a while.
- 1:01:05This could be, you know, one of the final nails for other Fiat
- 1:01:09currencies. Like everything might collapse
- 1:01:11into the US dollar very quickly, a lot quicker than we even
- 1:01:14imagined. And then, you know, the final
- 1:01:17boss is really playing out. It's Bitcoin versus the dollar.
- 1:01:21And that is the final battle that we've been talking about
- 1:01:23here as Bitcoiners for a long, long time now.
- 1:01:26It seems like this is all been kind of set in motion now, you
- 1:01:31know, the, the game just has to get played out.
- 1:01:33Like we just have to see where the Domino's fall.
- 1:01:35This is where it is more important than ever for us to
- 1:01:38try to get people into Bitcoin. And, you know, if they, if they
- 1:01:42need to use stable coins to get there, then I, I don't think
- 1:01:44that's necessarily a bad thing. People do need to kind of get
- 1:01:48exposure to what Bitcoin is and for better or worse, stable
- 1:01:52coins have been that route for people.
- 1:01:54They're so familiar with Fiat currencies that they want
- 1:01:56something that that is kind of close to the idea that they have
- 1:02:00of Fiat. And then from there, they're
- 1:02:02going into Bitcoin like Paulo and everyone over at Tether,
- 1:02:06they're hardcore Maxis here, You know, they're, they're basically
- 1:02:09profiting off treasuries, stacking Bitcoin like, bro, if I
- 1:02:13could do that, I probably would. I wasn't smart enough to create
- 1:02:16Tether, but they're they're they're obviously, you know,
- 1:02:20playing a game that a lot of bitcoiners don't understand.
- 1:02:23There are a few bit corners that have been kind of on this beat
- 1:02:27for a while. It's like, yo, the Bitcoin
- 1:02:29dollar system is well in play. They've been they've been
- 1:02:32telegraphing these moves for a while.
- 1:02:34And anyone that thinks, you know, the US government is going
- 1:02:37to fight Bitcoin now is like that's not the case.
- 1:02:40That is going on. If anything, they're going to
- 1:02:42embrace it even more than ever. I do want to give a shout out to
- 1:02:46before we move on to the next segment.
- 1:02:47Guys, go check out the orange pill app Stack friends who stack
- 1:02:53sats. If you feel lonely in a city
- 1:02:56because there's no bitcoiners around you and you have no one
- 1:02:59to connect with, the Orange Pill app is.
- 1:03:02For you, so go to. Orange pill app.com, download it
- 1:03:06today. They just implemented the
- 1:03:08Lightning wallet. All right, everybody, let's get
- 1:03:10to the culture. We're going to talk to Kent
- 1:03:12about SAS mining, wild SAS. We're going to be right back in
- 1:03:16just a second and we're also going to be giving away SAS at
- 1:03:20the end of the show. So you're going to want to stay
- 1:03:23tuned. I want to give a shout out to
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- 1:05:27All right, ladies and gentlemen, we are back.
- 1:05:29I'm going to end the poll that we started in the beginning of
- 1:05:32the show. I said it is the Bitcoin bull
- 1:05:34run over. Ladies and gentlemen, not 80% of
- 1:05:39you guys voted no 19% of you guys voted yes and there were
- 1:05:44773 votes. If you guys are enjoying today's
- 1:05:48show, smash That Like Button. We're currently at 204 likes.
- 1:05:53Help us break perhaps maybe 250 likes by the time we wrap
- 1:05:57today's show. Want to give a shout out to the
- 1:05:59Rumble crowd as well, coming in hot.
- 1:06:01Smash that Like Button. We're almost at 3000 live
- 1:06:05viewers. Anyways, Kent, the floor is
- 1:06:08yours. Actually, I'm going to pass it
- 1:06:10on to Opti because Kent sent us something.
- 1:06:13Yeah. Yeah, but I, I, I agree with the
- 1:06:16chat. Sorry not to cut you off, Nico.
- 1:06:18I agree with the chat here, but 50 says it must be over.
- 1:06:21The herd says it's not. Pareto principle 20%, yes, it's
- 1:06:26over. It's probably correct.
- 1:06:29I just find that funny. Yeah.
- 1:06:31Anyway, actually before we get into what you wanted to talk
- 1:06:35about, Ken, we, we do have enough time.
- 1:06:37You have been coming on kind of as our reigning, you know,
- 1:06:41mining expert here coming from SAS.
- 1:06:42And so I want to kind of talk about the hash rate because it's
- 1:06:47going, it's going freaking nuclear here.
- 1:06:49It's going parabolic here. And there's the meme of, you
- 1:06:52know, does hash follow price or does price follow hash?
- 1:06:56And I think, you know, in this context, it makes perfect sense
- 1:07:00why Kent is so bullish on what's going on with Bitcoin.
- 1:07:02So what's your take on all that? Oh man.
- 1:07:05So here's how I see it. I think that Bitcoin is a
- 1:07:09digital Organism, right? I think price is 1 strand of of
- 1:07:13the DNA of of Bitcoin and hash is the hash rate is the other
- 1:07:18and they interrelate, right? And they're not correlated, but
- 1:07:22they're interrelated with one another.
- 1:07:24And what we see right now, my reigning thesis has been that
- 1:07:28price follows hash rate more or less.
- 1:07:31And all this desire to get Bitcoin through mining, which is
- 1:07:36ultimately being expressed by the increase in hash rate, is
- 1:07:40for two reasons, right? One, believing that the price of
- 1:07:44Bitcoin is going to go up, and two, what I've realized in
- 1:07:48working with our customers is people want Bitcoin from outside
- 1:07:51the system right there. There's no banking industry
- 1:07:54wrapped around mining. There's just a hardware
- 1:07:56industry. And so you can get Bitcoin
- 1:07:58outside the system. So I think that's another
- 1:08:00driver. But if you look at it, I believe
- 1:08:02personally, this explosive hash rate that we've seen this over
- 1:08:07the last few years since the China ban of 2021, at least I
- 1:08:10think it was 2021 anyhow, that explosive hash rate increase is
- 1:08:14because people are betting on the price increasing.
- 1:08:18And I'll tell you what, there's nobody that has more skin in the
- 1:08:21game than the mining industry. They put capital on the line to
- 1:08:25acquire Bitcoin. And that means that they're
- 1:08:27betting and you never want to bet against the market, you
- 1:08:30know, and, and directionally, this bet is, hey, price is going
- 1:08:33to explode at some point. And so that's my thesis as well,
- 1:08:37is even if the cycle is extending, there is going to be
- 1:08:39a blowout moment here where the price is going to accelerate and
- 1:08:43suddenly justify all this mining investment that the mining
- 1:08:46community has made. Love it.
- 1:08:48Absolutely love it. Couldn't agree more with that.
- 1:08:51All right, So, Kent. So I was going to call you SAS.
- 1:08:53That's funny. All right, Kent.
- 1:08:58All right, Kent, before we get into, you know, the the time
- 1:09:02stamp stuff you want to talk about, I do think it's another
- 1:09:05good kind of a conversation. You just told us you came back
- 1:09:09from Ethiopia and this like fundamentally like changed your
- 1:09:11view on what's going on with Bitcoin and mining and energy in
- 1:09:14general. And I think that's a good little
- 1:09:16story to kind of jump on here before we, you know, wrap up
- 1:09:19today's show. So tell the people about your
- 1:09:21trip to Ethiopia and and what fundamentally changed in your
- 1:09:24opinion. Oh boy, so all last.
- 1:09:27Week I was on the ground in Addis, Ethiopia and Addis and
- 1:09:31Ethiopia was fundamentally an eye opening experience for me.
- 1:09:35So I can't say that I've ever been to Africa because before
- 1:09:38that trip, with the exception of Morocco, which kind of quasi
- 1:09:42counts, But I I went to Addis and was, was first of all, just
- 1:09:47blown away by the culture of Ethiopia.
- 1:09:49And it was one of the few countries it's never been
- 1:09:51colonized. Very proud people.
- 1:09:53I've got a robust ancient culture.
- 1:09:55You know, it was the third country in on the planet to
- 1:09:58adopt Christianity even before Rome did.
- 1:10:02So deep like religious traditions, you know, Muslims
- 1:10:05are the second largest minority there behind Christians,
- 1:10:08Orthodox Christians, and they all get along.
- 1:10:10And so I think there's something to look for the all of humanity
- 1:10:14to look at right now to see how long term cultures and different
- 1:10:17religions can get along in the same same country.
- 1:10:20But with 130 million people there.
- 1:10:22They are installing a ton of hydropower right now.
- 1:10:26Like the point to the point where they're actually building
- 1:10:30an airport that right now their current airport can handle like
- 1:10:3320 million visitors a year and they're building one that's
- 1:10:35going to be able to handle 100 million visitors a year over the
- 1:10:38next five years. And they are expecting to
- 1:10:41install I think somewhere. I think the top number I got was
- 1:10:44about 10 gigawatts, like roughly like 4 Xing their current power
- 1:10:49generation. And to me, what I've learned in
- 1:10:51Bitcoin mining is that power, electricity is a predicate for
- 1:10:56civilization flourishing. And it just seems like
- 1:11:00Ethiopia's going up into the right hard.
- 1:11:02China's making big investments there.
- 1:11:04You know, the what's it the belt, one belt, forgetting the
- 1:11:08language. Anyway, the big investment from
- 1:11:11China there is definitely advancing their community.
- 1:11:14And there's a ton of excess hydropower right now.
- 1:11:17And Bitcoin miners are serving a super critical role.
- 1:11:21And it's not a role that I expected.
- 1:11:23The role that they're actually serving is to bring dollars into
- 1:11:26the country. So I spent some time after the
- 1:11:30trip kind of understanding their debt dynamics and they they owe
- 1:11:33a lot of debt specifically to the IMF and dollars.
- 1:11:36And last year, the mining community brought in nearly 1/4
- 1:11:39billion dollars into that economy.
- 1:11:42And so having that, that flow of dollars coming in is allowing
- 1:11:46them to pay their IMF debt based obligations.
- 1:11:49And so there is a shake up that is going on right now in
- 1:11:52Ethiopia, winners in and losers are being chosen, but it's sort
- 1:11:56of the perfect opportunity really to take a really hard
- 1:11:59look at at potentially entering there.
- 1:12:01And so, you know, we're in discussions with nothing to
- 1:12:04bring to the market at this point.
- 1:12:05But I really liked what I saw. I saw the opportunity.
- 1:12:09The locals are ecstatic to have the job based opportunities that
- 1:12:13mining provides. The government's ecstatic to
- 1:12:16have the dollars coming in from outside so they can pay their
- 1:12:19debt. And the entire country feels
- 1:12:21like it's on a descendant path right now.
- 1:12:24Now, that's not to say that there's not problems in
- 1:12:27Ethiopia, right? Like the there's, it's heavily
- 1:12:30bureaucratic, but the rule of law is respected.
- 1:12:32And in the north, there's been long term conflict.
- 1:12:35But you know, Ethiopia is a country that's made of, I heard
- 1:12:39like 81 different original ethnic tribes.
- 1:12:43So it's, it's incredibly nuanced, a lot of it, but it
- 1:12:47feels like a country that is, you know, pulling itself up by
- 1:12:50the bootstraps. And it's really cool to see that
- 1:12:52happening and, and, and, and hopefully get to participate in
- 1:12:56driving that forward with the with Bitcoiners around the world
- 1:13:00wanting to mine there again, if I can bring it an opportunity to
- 1:13:04market. Love it, love it, and I'm gonna
- 1:13:07go. So I also wanted to mention as
- 1:13:10well, ladies and gentlemen, there's a special promotion
- 1:13:14going on right now. You have to go to sasmining.com
- 1:13:21and if you use the promo code Simply SAS, I love the name of
- 1:13:26that, you will get $100 off of your first miner.
- 1:13:32So you got to go right now to SAS mining.com.
- 1:13:36You have to start, you know, you have to get your first rig,
- 1:13:40start mining Bitcoin, start acquiring those wild sats.
- 1:13:45And if you use promo code Simply SAS, again, you get $100 off off
- 1:13:52of your first rig. And again, this is only
- 1:13:57available till 7:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.
- 1:14:02So after that, that promo code will expire.
- 1:14:05So go to sasmining.com and use promo code Simply SAS or you'll
- 1:14:10get left without any. Wild.
- 1:14:13Yeah. And I think there's a perfect
- 1:14:14question in the chat here as like a perfect segue right here.
- 1:14:19Craig says how do we hash an expensive countries like UK?
- 1:14:23Well, what a softball question here.
- 1:14:25So Kent. And This is why I have a job,
- 1:14:30Greg. I go out and source low cost
- 1:14:33power and make sure I've got a great data center.
- 1:14:36I trustworthy partners on the ground and allow you to mine
- 1:14:39Bitcoin directly to your wallet so that you don't have to try to
- 1:14:43mine on on really expensive power where you live because
- 1:14:46it's just not feasible for the most part.
- 1:14:48I mean, to put it in perspective, I've got a bit X
- 1:14:50sitting here on my desk. It's I considered a lot of
- 1:14:53miner. I mean, man, I want to play the
- 1:14:54lottery and win 3.125 Bitcoin. I'd love to hit that right.
- 1:14:57But I recognize that if I actually want to do to acquire
- 1:15:01Bitcoin the way Satoshi did and get it at a discount as compared
- 1:15:05to buying it, I need to find somebody else to help me.
- 1:15:07And right now, SAS mining is the only Bitcoin mining is a service
- 1:15:12business and it differentiates from traditional hosting because
- 1:15:16we've got a software platform that eases that entire
- 1:15:19experience. And we're the only business in
- 1:15:22this particular sector that's chosen to only be able to
- 1:15:26generate revenue for itself if I'm making you Bitcoin, right?
- 1:15:30And so we did that because I recognize coming into this
- 1:15:33industry from the rooftop solar industry that I'd worked in for
- 1:15:36like a decade, that there is no way for me to have possession of
- 1:15:41property that our clients own without that being a high trust
- 1:15:44relationship. So I just said, hey, how do I,
- 1:15:46how do I optimize around trust for this?
- 1:15:49And the answer was, well, I don't want to make money selling
- 1:15:52hardware. I don't want to make money
- 1:15:53selling electricity. I want to make sure that I'm
- 1:15:56only generating my profit if I'm helping my clients generate
- 1:15:58Bitcoin for themselves. And so that's how the, the
- 1:16:02business model was determined. I'm really proud of the fact
- 1:16:05that we've got, you know, north of 350 clients.
- 1:16:08We're operating in three continents right now, 81% of our
- 1:16:11clients are repeat buyers and we are the first to focus on
- 1:16:15building a software platform. So software as a service for
- 1:16:18Bitcoin mining. And it's thus far proved
- 1:16:22exceptionally valuable to clients.
- 1:16:25We see a lot of clients building fleets with us.
- 1:16:27And I think that you'll find that it's just better Bitcoin,
- 1:16:30it's lower cost because you're using energy rather than
- 1:16:33purchasing on an exchange. It's wild.
- 1:16:35Meaning you don't, we don't need your identifying information.
- 1:16:38I mean, we need to communicate with you, of course.
- 1:16:40And it's done the way Satoshi got his Bitcoin, which is by
- 1:16:45protecting the network. And so something just feels
- 1:16:47sovereign and better about that Bitcoin that you're acquiring in
- 1:16:50this fashion. And our customers love it.
- 1:16:52And you're able to get that outside of the system.
- 1:16:56And I think downstream of all of this, the more Bitcoiners that
- 1:17:00are acquiring their their Bitcoin through mining instead
- 1:17:03of buying, the less the centralization issues will
- 1:17:06happen on the network. Because right now that is the
- 1:17:08biggest problem in Bitcoin, in my opinion, full stop, is that
- 1:17:11most of the mining industry is acquiring Bitcoin and using that
- 1:17:16as a proxy for Fiat. And they're doing that because
- 1:17:19they're publicly traded. Companies have a fiduciary
- 1:17:21responsibility to return dollars to their shareholders, not
- 1:17:24Bitcoin. And that means that they're not
- 1:17:26necessarily aligned with the network itself.
- 1:17:29Beautiful again guys, go to saasmining.com today use promo
- 1:17:35code simply SaaS. You get $100 off of your first
- 1:17:39rig and if you want to invest in this awesome company they're
- 1:17:44currently doing a fundraiser for on time stamp.
- 1:17:50Of course, you have to be, you have to sign up with them and
- 1:17:52you have to, you know, you have to go through the whole process
- 1:17:56and see if if you are, if you're able to invest.
- 1:18:01But if you, if you are able to invest, if you check all the
- 1:18:04boxes, you know they, they, they're currently raising money.
- 1:18:09This is a fantastic company been featured on Bloomberg, my fate,
- 1:18:14my personal favorite simply Bitcoin, Forbes, coin desk,
- 1:18:18Bitcoin magazine, Bitcoin news, and it has all the details there
- 1:18:24and of course I'll drop this in the live chat today.
- 1:18:26I have to go. I have to go catch a Real Madrid
- 1:18:30game. So I'm going to wrap it up here
- 1:18:32guys. This was simply Bitcoin live.
- 1:18:36I'm going to give away. We're going to do 2 SAT
- 1:18:39giveaways tomorrow to make up for the not giving away a SAT.
- 1:18:43Giveaway today. Dude, I have to I'm going to be
- 1:18:45late to this game. So we're going to be we're going
- 1:18:49to be doing a double SAT giveaway via Bitcoin well
- 1:18:52tomorrow. So you guys want to tune into
- 1:18:54the show again, go check out SAS mining.com.
- 1:18:58Use the promo code Simply SAS to get $100 off your first rig.
- 1:19:02I'm your host Nico. This is my Co host Optimus
- 1:19:05Fields, our guest today, CEO of SAS Mining Kent.
- 1:19:09This is August 19th, 2025. I'll see you guys tomorrow for a
- 1:19:13brand new episode of Simply Bitcoin Live.
- 1:19:17Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
- 1:19:20Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
- 1:19:23independence.