Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 2

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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 2 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: I am live from my Tommy John home studio. I
0:21
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:26
Speaker 1: This is our Sunday Night episode in which we review
0:31
Speaker 1: the faves five picks we put into the contest, dis
0:35
Speaker 1: sect why we left some games out, preview the early
0:39
Speaker 1: lines we already like for week three, and I'm joined
0:43
Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my companion, my Campadre,
0:46
Speaker 1: my BFF, professional betarsignment hunter elos Imn. Hello, I'm trying
0:55
Speaker 1: to muster up some enthusiasm here. Rough week, rough rough week,
1:04
Speaker 1: and we're gonna get to everything. Listen. The good news
1:08
Speaker 1: We did not bet the Panthers, did not ask anyone
1:11
Speaker 1: to bet the Panthers. No matter what the trends say
1:15
Speaker 1: or the market says. We knew better at least this
1:19
Speaker 1: week on this game because Bryce Young is truly awful,
1:23
Speaker 1: and it was such a joy to not be sweating
1:27
Speaker 1: anything to do with the Panthers like I could. It's
1:29
Speaker 1: the two minutes when of collective time that the Chargers
1:34
Speaker 1: Panthers was in red zone that I could relax, catch you.
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Speaker 1: week two record in the Favorites one hundred thousand. Pro
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Speaker 1: Football Pick Them Contest was one in four, one and
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Speaker 1: freaking four. We're going to get to all the games.
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3:19
Speaker 1: All right, Simon, we're gonna start with the losers, and
3:24
Speaker 1: we got a lot to talk about. First one up
3:27
Speaker 1: nine ers minus four and a half at Minnesota last game.
3:33
Speaker 1: In biggest debate between the two of us, we were
3:39
Speaker 1: not on consensus in this at noon. You said, and
3:46
Speaker 1: I'm quoting, I know it's a trap. I just like
3:49
Speaker 1: this Niners team. If it doesn't work out, blame me
3:54
Speaker 1: on the show. I don't like to play the blame
3:58
Speaker 1: game because you're my bff and we're in this together.
4:04
Speaker 1: But I still don't get why we liked the Niners.
4:06
Speaker 1: We like walked away from it. It was all over
4:08
Speaker 1: sharp calls. Kerner like hated it and convinced me hated
4:13
Speaker 1: the Niners, love the Vikings. What happened? What changed our
4:18
Speaker 1: thinking here?
4:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was it was a bad week to go
4:22
Speaker 2: with the favorites. I just thought it was clearly an
4:25
Speaker 2: overreaction to Week one, and Sean nailed it the Vikings,
4:31
Speaker 2: even if it was just the Giants that kind of
4:32
Speaker 2: previewed about what kind of team they wanted to be
4:34
Speaker 2: this season, and it rolled over into this.
4:38
Speaker 3: Forty nine Ers game, and yeah.
4:40
Speaker 2: The everything that could go wrong did go wrong for
4:42
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers, right, they didn't play the game
4:44
Speaker 2: they're used to playing. But Sam Darnold still made big
4:47
Speaker 2: time throws in big plays. So at the end of
4:51
Speaker 2: the day, yeah, things then bounce our way. But that
4:54
Speaker 2: was that was a bad number and you nailed it,
4:57
Speaker 2: like I I basically you were just like, we love
5:00
Speaker 2: the Bengals, we should put the Bengals in.
5:02
Speaker 3: You've been on the Bengals all week.
5:04
Speaker 2: And this was that was the team we switched out for,
5:08
Speaker 2: was this forty nine Ers team. So yeah, they picked
5:11
Speaker 2: a bad week to straight away from what this podcast is,
5:14
Speaker 2: which is betting ugly dogs and not taking chalk favorites.
5:17
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm gonna own that one. That was a
5:19
Speaker 2: bad switch out taking this forty nine Ers team.
5:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Niners were off. This entire game, the epitome
5:29
Speaker 1: of what went wrong for this team. There was a
5:34
Speaker 1: sequence where they went for it on fourth down at
5:38
Speaker 1: the Vikings goal line, didn't make it. Next series, Sam
5:43
Speaker 1: Darnold hits Justin Jefferson for a ninety seven yard touchdown pass.
5:51
Speaker 1: Like that was the epitome of this game. And we
5:56
Speaker 1: got to give credit to Kevin O'Connell. Nobody wants to
5:59
Speaker 1: say how how good of a coach Kevin O'Connell is.
6:03
Speaker 1: But at this point, Sam Donald two games two and zero,
6:08
Speaker 1: one win on the road, one win against the defending
6:11
Speaker 1: conference champion in the NFC, four hundred and seventy six
6:15
Speaker 1: passing years, four touchdown, just two picks QB rating about
6:18
Speaker 1: one hundred and ten.
6:20
Speaker 3: Yeah.
6:21
Speaker 1: Like, there was one point in this game where he
6:24
Speaker 1: threw a bad pick to Fred Warner and the Niners
6:27
Speaker 1: were getting themselves back in the game, and I'm like,
6:30
Speaker 1: all right, Sam Donald is back to Sam donalding and
6:35
Speaker 1: the Niners just could not capitalize. It was fucking excruciating.
6:40
Speaker 1: We were just brutal.
6:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, two quarterbacks. I was down coming into this season,
6:47
Speaker 2: Sam Donald, therek Carr. We're zero for four right now
6:50
Speaker 2: betting against these two guys in our contest, and they're both.
6:54
Speaker 3: Putting up career numbers.
6:55
Speaker 2: So yeah, if Derek Carr was to sending me and
6:59
Speaker 2: Chad some because we were the reason we sparked this
7:02
Speaker 2: outpour of averaging forty points per game, reach out to us,
7:05
Speaker 2: I'm happy to take some because I am I'm broke
7:07
Speaker 2: jed trying to fake these two terrible quarterbacks. So yeah,
7:11
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold definitely had me eating some humble pie he
7:14
Speaker 2: bought out in this game.
7:16
Speaker 1: All right, Well, I'm going to skip ahead since you
7:18
Speaker 1: talked about Derek Carr, and I'm going to go to
7:23
Speaker 1: the Saints and the Cowboys. I hope that's okay with
7:26
Speaker 1: producer Tito because it was a different order in the rundown.
7:30
Speaker 1: But look, yeah, but look, we loved the Cowboys this week.
7:36
Speaker 1: We so bought into the Cowboys. We so bought into
7:41
Speaker 1: the idea of what Dak has been at home as
7:44
Speaker 1: a big favorite. What Mike McCarthy has been at home
7:48
Speaker 1: as a big favorite. The last seventeen games at home,
7:52
Speaker 1: they had outscored opponents by two hundred and sixty five points.
7:56
Speaker 1: They hadn't been down by eleven points in the first
7:59
Speaker 1: quarter at home in four years. We had a Saints
8:03
Speaker 1: team that beat up on the Panthers that we were
8:06
Speaker 1: not buying. Derek Carr only through sixteen passes in the
8:11
Speaker 1: game and had two hundred and forty three yards and
8:14
Speaker 1: a couple of tuddies and has been and this team's
8:18
Speaker 1: lightened teams up for forty points a game, even going
8:20
Speaker 1: back to last season, like, what are we missing here?
8:24
Speaker 1: What do we miss on the Cowboys? What are we
8:26
Speaker 1: missing on the Saints?
8:28
Speaker 2: It's got a do qbiac right, he came in.
8:31
Speaker 3: He's their new OC.
8:32
Speaker 2: And you see a change right that that offense they
8:36
Speaker 2: ran against the Cowboys, they basically had the Cowboys on
8:39
Speaker 2: tilt the entire game. The Cowboys were never comfortable. I mean,
8:43
Speaker 2: I think they drove got seven. Cowboys, drove the field,
8:47
Speaker 2: kicked the field goal, they got the ball back, and
8:49
Speaker 2: they drove the field again and got it for seven.
8:51
Speaker 2: And then Komara just took over from there like it
8:54
Speaker 2: was a great just a great game all around from
8:57
Speaker 2: the Saints. Like, there's really nothing to take away from
8:58
Speaker 2: it other than maybe I'll downgrade Dallas a little bit, right.
9:03
Speaker 2: I think we did see that they do have weaknesses
9:05
Speaker 2: and if the starters do get tired on that d line,
9:09
Speaker 2: they don't have secondary guys to come in, right, And
9:12
Speaker 2: you saw a little bit of the weakness on the
9:14
Speaker 2: Dallas front line right over time when they had to
9:16
Speaker 2: go into pass pro. There's definitely some weaknesses for their
9:19
Speaker 2: past blocking. So yeah, interesting game again, Still not going
9:23
Speaker 2: to overreact to it. Like the Saints, I'll move them up.
9:27
Speaker 2: They are definitely a better team than I perceived they
9:29
Speaker 2: would be coming this year, right, They clearly I found
9:32
Speaker 2: something here at Derek Carr and we talk all the time, right,
9:35
Speaker 2: Chad the hot hand, Like this could just be a streak, Right,
9:37
Speaker 2: he could just be hot right now, He'll eventually cool
9:39
Speaker 2: often go the other way.
9:40
Speaker 3: But I don't. I'm with you.
9:43
Speaker 2: I don't know if I want to step in front
9:44
Speaker 2: of this next week, even if we have a good number,
9:45
Speaker 2: which looking at the look ahead, I think the value.
9:49
Speaker 3: Might be on the Saints team.
9:50
Speaker 2: So It is interesting going out where it's like, when
9:53
Speaker 2: do you eventually sell on the Saints team because they
9:55
Speaker 2: are playing way above their head.
9:56
Speaker 3: Right they're back to back forty point weeks.
10:00
Speaker 2: That's not what the Saints offense is going to be
10:02
Speaker 2: as good as qubac might be in this new system.
10:05
Speaker 2: This is just incredible right now what they're doing. So, yeah,
10:08
Speaker 2: that was terrible read. Cowboys. Yeah, we talked about beforehand.
10:12
Speaker 2: We knew another game. We knew was a heavy public play.
10:15
Speaker 2: We just thought coming in the Cowboys were a little underrated.
10:18
Speaker 2: Still apparently they're properly rated.
10:20
Speaker 3: Chad.
10:22
Speaker 1: We were right the first time. Is basically what we're saying.
10:28
Speaker 1: The Saints had four hundred and thirty two total yards.
10:31
Speaker 1: They averaged they averaged seven point seven yards per play,
10:39
Speaker 1: seven point seven yards per play. They had just under
10:42
Speaker 1: two hundred yards rushing. Kamara had four touchdowns. It's almost
10:48
Speaker 1: like Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara where the Derek Carr
10:51
Speaker 1: and Alvin Kamara in the best seasons individually each one
10:57
Speaker 1: had ever had before. They were just astonishing, and the
11:00
Speaker 1: Cowboys were outplayed in every area of the field. It's
11:06
Speaker 1: so complicated with this Saints team. Right now. We thought
11:09
Speaker 1: their offensive line was terrible and that Micah Parsons would
11:12
Speaker 1: have his way, and it's almost like whatever the Saints
11:16
Speaker 1: wanted to do running the ball, they could do. It
11:20
Speaker 1: was more like the It was also the second game
11:23
Speaker 1: in a row where early in the first or second
11:27
Speaker 1: series Derek carr unleashes the ball to Rashid Shahid for
11:33
Speaker 1: a long touchdown. The number of explosive plays they had
11:37
Speaker 1: against this Cowboys team, it was just wow. That was
11:41
Speaker 1: a beatdown, a total beatdown. By the way, Sean Kerner
11:48
Speaker 1: ten to zero on his props this week so far,
11:52
Speaker 1: which is.
11:53
Speaker 2: That's including his he had that under he gave out
11:56
Speaker 2: and he gave out the vikings, So.
11:58
Speaker 1: Sean Cerner couldn't be high all right now, you.
12:00
Speaker 2: Go, yeah, props totals straight belts.
12:03
Speaker 1: But here's what's even cooler. Here's what's even cooler. Nick
12:07
Speaker 1: Giffen unconvinced me this morning gave out Saints Cowboys to
12:15
Speaker 1: be the highest scoring game of the day according to
12:19
Speaker 1: his luck rankings. I don't know if Evan can do
12:24
Speaker 1: the numbers and do a quick check because I can't
12:27
Speaker 1: think of every game, but every game today seemed to
12:30
Speaker 1: be pretty ugly. So right now that game is probably
12:33
Speaker 1: what sixty three points or something like that. Right now,
12:36
Speaker 1: that might be. And that was ten to one to
12:38
Speaker 1: be the highest scoring game of the day Nick Giffen,
12:40
Speaker 1: based on the luck rankings, getting it from Billy Ward,
12:43
Speaker 1: one of our Action Network analytics gurus. So pretty impressive
12:49
Speaker 1: for the Action Network analytics team, not as impressive for
12:53
Speaker 1: the Action Network non analytics team of Simon and Chad.
12:58
Speaker 3: Today.
12:59
Speaker 1: That is, by the way, easily the highest scoring game
13:01
Speaker 1: of the day.
13:02
Speaker 2: All right, I did, I did go to in one.
13:04
Speaker 3: Convince me.
13:04
Speaker 2: I know you don't care, but five ten people out
13:07
Speaker 2: there might care.
13:08
Speaker 1: I care. Listen, I care about all of it. You know,
13:12
Speaker 1: we got to own our tough days. We got to
13:14
Speaker 1: own our wins. You went to and want to convince
13:16
Speaker 1: me that's impressive. I think uh Raybon actually had Cleveland
13:22
Speaker 1: and he had his under on Tampa and uh Green
13:26
Speaker 1: Bay head or Tampa and the Lions hit, but he
13:29
Speaker 1: didn't hit on his h on his prop. All right, touchdowns,
13:34
Speaker 1: I think you only had one touchdown and then brutal. Yeah,
13:37
Speaker 1: it was brutal box at Lions we're talking about. We
13:42
Speaker 1: never fucking bet favorites, and we decided like we were
13:47
Speaker 1: going all in on favorites this we know there are
13:50
Speaker 1: such fucking schmucks. It's ridiculous. Yeah, oh my god. The Lions,
13:56
Speaker 1: they just they wanted to give this away. We gave
13:59
Speaker 1: the Lions way too much credit for how they beat
14:02
Speaker 1: the Rams, not enough credit to Baker in the Bucks
14:05
Speaker 1: for the way they beat the Commanders. Like the Lions
14:08
Speaker 1: I think were zero for five in the red zone
14:12
Speaker 1: or something like that, including a penalty on the final
14:15
Speaker 1: play of the first half, to keep them from attempting
14:18
Speaker 1: a field goal. Like they're just out of sorts. They
14:22
Speaker 1: were out of sorts against the Rams. We thought it
14:24
Speaker 1: might have just been game planning by the Rams. Is
14:27
Speaker 1: it worse than we think for this Lion's team.
14:31
Speaker 2: I think we're not. We're kind of Glazinger who is
14:33
Speaker 2: the blamer? And it's GoF right.
14:35
Speaker 3: He played terrible.
14:36
Speaker 2: He kept putting his team in terrible positions. Not just
14:39
Speaker 2: his interceptions were terrible, but everything he was doing.
14:41
Speaker 3: Even on third downs. His reads were bad.
14:43
Speaker 2: He was always going, he was always falling back, thrown
14:45
Speaker 2: off his back foot, even if there wasn't pressure in
14:47
Speaker 2: the middle. He was acting as if there was not
14:50
Speaker 2: going through his reads, not pushing the ball downfield. Like
14:53
Speaker 2: we talked going into this game, this team is on
14:55
Speaker 2: their fourth and fifth cornerbacks and they're all pro safeties
14:58
Speaker 2: out Like, there was no for this team to put
15:01
Speaker 2: up sixteen points here at home. And the worst part
15:04
Speaker 2: of that game is the Bucks let them in it, right,
15:07
Speaker 2: They kept kicking field goals instead of getting touchdown.
15:09
Speaker 3: So this game was always close throughout.
15:11
Speaker 2: So I kept doing the crummy math in my head, like, well,
15:14
Speaker 2: me and chat just need this to break this way
15:16
Speaker 2: and we can get to that number, when that number
15:19
Speaker 2: was dead on arrival, like we were just never getting there.
15:21
Speaker 3: The way Goff was playing that game, he was just awful.
15:23
Speaker 2: Sono can overreact to it. I think once they get
15:27
Speaker 2: it going, I still think their defense played pretty well.
15:30
Speaker 2: I mean they shut down Mike Evans for the most part,
15:33
Speaker 2: and I know Godwin beat them in a lot of ways,
15:34
Speaker 2: but I think the Detroit would have taken the way
15:37
Speaker 2: that game played out right. They really shut down the run.
15:40
Speaker 2: Baker had a couple amazing plays where he ran outside
15:43
Speaker 2: the pocket and you know, was throwing headfakes on guys,
15:46
Speaker 2: Guy's going flying by him. Like that was a classic
15:49
Speaker 2: great game by Baker where he knew he didn't have
15:51
Speaker 2: all his pieces there and he still made it work
15:53
Speaker 2: and was able to get the twenty points.
15:54
Speaker 3: So yeah, that to me was definitely a.
15:58
Speaker 2: Golf lost that game rather than you know, that whole
16:02
Speaker 2: Detroit team played bad. I thought defensively they played pretty well,
16:06
Speaker 2: and even offensively, a lot of his guys were getting open. Again,
16:09
Speaker 2: we have to go back and watch the all twenty two,
16:12
Speaker 2: but just from what I watched, I just think Golf
16:14
Speaker 2: was on that really let us down in this game.
16:15
Speaker 2: Like they had a bunch of opportunities, he couldn't capitalize
16:18
Speaker 2: on them, and like you just said before half, you know,
16:21
Speaker 2: him getting that false start over the penalty was and
16:23
Speaker 2: then getting kicked off the field and getting zero points
16:26
Speaker 2: rather than getting three points for going in. It's just
16:28
Speaker 2: like it's all falls on him at the end of
16:30
Speaker 2: the day. So yeah, bad day to back these quarterbacks
16:34
Speaker 2: of these big favorites.
16:36
Speaker 1: That made a difference by the way that play, I
16:38
Speaker 1: think it was thirteen six. You go in thirteen to nine,
16:41
Speaker 1: it changes what you're doing in the second half, It
16:44
Speaker 1: changes some of the play calling throughout the game. Aiden Hutchinson,
16:47
Speaker 1: by the way, you know who we bet fourteen to
16:49
Speaker 1: one to lead the league in sacks at four and
16:52
Speaker 1: a half for five sacks today, like, but to me,
16:57
Speaker 1: that was also just indicative of how good the Lions
17:03
Speaker 1: can be, how they should have won this game. Baker
17:07
Speaker 1: was scrambling for his life. He made a lot of
17:10
Speaker 1: really great plays, but the Lions had this game. It
17:14
Speaker 1: was Theirs for the taking, not just that like you,
17:16
Speaker 1: I was doing the Gamblers math too. It was Theirs
17:18
Speaker 1: for the taking to run away with it like they
17:21
Speaker 1: should have just dominated in this game. Their play calling
17:23
Speaker 1: was bad, golf was bad, Their defense gave up the
17:26
Speaker 1: wrong plays at the wrong times. Bad penalties just so frustrating,
17:32
Speaker 1: so frustrating to watch this game. Equally frustrating. Steelers of
17:40
Speaker 1: Denver Denver plus two and a half Mike Tomlin mirror
17:46
Speaker 1: records basically as a road dog, brilliant, as a road favorite,
17:55
Speaker 1: terrible except rookie mistakes, so many penalties in this game.
18:04
Speaker 1: Bonnicks just could not get the ball downfield, pick in
18:09
Speaker 1: the end zone when they were driving. That was a
18:11
Speaker 1: huge play. It turns out we loved Denver here love them,
18:17
Speaker 1: didn't This was one of the games we did not waiver,
18:20
Speaker 1: did not waiver at all.
18:23
Speaker 2: No, it's the same game we're talking a little bit
18:26
Speaker 2: the Green Bay game where it's like I trusted the
18:28
Speaker 2: number and the spot, the situation with the team, and Yeah,
18:31
Speaker 2: if you would have come to me and said, Pittsburgh's
18:34
Speaker 2: only to score thirteen points, do you still want to
18:36
Speaker 2: make this bet? I probably would still make a child.
18:39
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie. Like, of course Denver. Denver's team
18:42
Speaker 2: did their job, and you know, justin fields, he's playing
18:47
Speaker 2: super smart conservative, which is exactly how Tomlin wants him
18:51
Speaker 2: to play.
18:51
Speaker 1: Right.
18:51
Speaker 2: He basically told him, you can lose us this game.
18:55
Speaker 2: We don't need you to win it, right. They have
18:56
Speaker 2: the pieces around him to win the games for them.
18:59
Speaker 2: That comes on the defensive side. So when they drove
19:02
Speaker 2: the field got that early touchdown, I still thought to myself,
19:05
Speaker 2: you know what, Denver's defense will will figure this out.
19:08
Speaker 3: We'll be our We'll stay in this.
19:09
Speaker 2: We just need to get three points, even six points
19:12
Speaker 2: at some point in this game, right, And then I
19:14
Speaker 2: think it was midway through the third quarter, it's still
19:17
Speaker 2: like seven to nothing or ten nothing, and it's just, yeah,
19:19
Speaker 2: we're never gonna get there like this kid will never
19:21
Speaker 2: get us there, and you said it. He gets us
19:23
Speaker 2: down there after a miracle trick play and threws a
19:26
Speaker 2: pick in the end zone, and it's just those are
19:28
Speaker 2: brutal beat and your bet on these rookie quarterbacks. So
19:31
Speaker 2: uh yeah, that's that's a tough loss, but it's a
19:35
Speaker 2: spot we're usually gonna play. This Pittsburgh team, you know what,
19:40
Speaker 2: they score eighteen their first game, thirteen their second game.
19:42
Speaker 2: They're two and oh now going on to play against
19:45
Speaker 2: a Chargers team that might not have Herbert who got
19:46
Speaker 2: banged up in their games.
19:48
Speaker 3: So yeah, we're we're.
19:51
Speaker 2: Definitely regretting betting they're under. I mean, we talked about
19:54
Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh team. It's later in the year that their
19:55
Speaker 2: schedule is gonna get really brutal. But this is Tomlin's
19:58
Speaker 2: such a Tomlin identit team of just winning with a
20:02
Speaker 2: really grinding out defense, with an offense that just does
20:06
Speaker 2: nothing for them, and they somehow keep getting wins.
20:08
Speaker 3: So uh yeah.
20:10
Speaker 2: Another team that's gonna make us eat it right now
20:12
Speaker 2: is Pittsburgh. They just they started this year incredibly and
20:15
Speaker 2: again they're two and oh going home to play against
20:18
Speaker 2: the team without maybe Herbert. That's that's incredible. Think about
20:20
Speaker 2: like they're leading their division right now, right and the
20:24
Speaker 2: Bengals are sitting there, oh and too, Ravens are sitting there,
20:27
Speaker 2: ow and two. I get a Pittsburgh fans, fill yourself.
20:30
Speaker 2: I've been hearing from them my mentions all week and
20:34
Speaker 2: you're right. I just I did not think this was
20:36
Speaker 2: going to be a favorable spot for you guys offensively,
20:39
Speaker 2: and you didn't need it. Your defense is that dominant.
20:41
Speaker 2: So yeah, pretty incredible start to the season for.
20:43
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Bengals zho and two, Ravens, oh and two, Brown's
20:49
Speaker 1: one and one, Steelers two and oh. That's why the
20:54
Speaker 1: NFL is so great. That's why Sundays are so excruciating,
21:01
Speaker 1: like gut wrenching. I tried so hard to like find
21:07
Speaker 1: my zen so many times today. My mom called me
21:12
Speaker 1: right as the late the early games were ending, like
21:17
Speaker 1: I didn't snap, I kept my composure. My wife came
21:22
Speaker 1: in at some point because she wanted to talk about
21:25
Speaker 1: when the guys can come to redo the floors in
21:27
Speaker 1: our older kids' bedroom and like it's going to be noisy,
21:31
Speaker 1: and when are my show is going to be and
21:33
Speaker 1: I'm like, I looked at my calendar. I kept my composure.
21:38
Speaker 1: You know, I didn't. I didn't snap. It was only once.
21:42
Speaker 1: It was only once where she wanted to talk to
21:46
Speaker 1: me about something else, like I can't something else later
21:50
Speaker 1: this week, and I just looked at her and I go,
21:54
Speaker 1: I just can't engage on this conversation right now. Can
22:01
Speaker 1: we just do this another day? She to me, She goes,
22:05
Speaker 1: I got it. I understand. Nothing helped nothing. I should
22:11
Speaker 1: have snapped. I should have taken my computer thrown across
22:13
Speaker 1: the room because maybe it would have inspired people on
22:16
Speaker 1: the TV screens.
22:18
Speaker 2: We got sixty more weeks, Chad, and we're just one
22:21
Speaker 2: five and oh week away from me eight and seven,
22:23
Speaker 2: So don't you worry. I'm not gonna say panicky yet,
22:26
Speaker 2: but let me tell you this much, people, If me
22:28
Speaker 2: and Chad don't go at least three and two next week,
22:31
Speaker 2: I'm really fucking pissed off right now. I'm pissed off,
22:34
Speaker 2: But I'm like, I think, Chad, you said best before
22:37
Speaker 2: even we even did our picks. Not that I'm letting
22:40
Speaker 2: the fans make our picks here, but there were some
22:43
Speaker 2: ugly dogs I like this week and I simply didn't
22:46
Speaker 2: even bring them up. And I even said to Chad,
22:47
Speaker 2: I was like, I don't want these fans the mutiny
22:50
Speaker 2: against us. I want to go chalk. So the fans
22:52
Speaker 2: were happy and that Chad didn't say fuck the fans,
22:55
Speaker 2: but as politely as Chad could put it, he said, dude,
22:58
Speaker 2: who fucking cares with the fans? Make give me your
23:01
Speaker 2: best picks. And I didn't do it.
23:03
Speaker 3: So I'm filled with regret on that.
23:04
Speaker 2: And going forward, it won't be Carolina, it won't be
23:08
Speaker 2: the Giants, but man, we're gonna be playing some fucking
23:11
Speaker 2: ugly dogs. We're getting back to what made us so great.
23:13
Speaker 2: So yeah, no more, no more six and a half
23:15
Speaker 2: seven point favorites. I can't believe that happened this week.
23:20
Speaker 1: Well, look to speak to that. You loved the Raiders
23:24
Speaker 1: this week. You talked about the Raiders winning this game outright,
23:28
Speaker 1: we didn't even talk about the Raiders.
23:30
Speaker 3: You hated them.
23:31
Speaker 2: That's why it's like, if you hated I don't want to.
23:33
Speaker 3: I don't want to. I don't want to.
23:34
Speaker 2: Bring up a team that looked like complete dog shit.
23:38
Speaker 2: When you immediately like I hate it, I'm like, I agree.
23:41
Speaker 2: They looked horrible against the Chargers. I had no rebuttal
23:44
Speaker 2: to what you said, Antonio Pierce, that was one of
23:46
Speaker 2: the worst coaching jobs. But you're right, like that's a
23:48
Speaker 2: that's a line I loved. I still somehow let us
23:52
Speaker 2: put a survivor and I'm out of all my survivor pools.
23:54
Speaker 2: So I don't even know, do you still have to
23:55
Speaker 2: do that fucking shit? I don't know if I haven't
23:58
Speaker 2: left in me, dude, Like I've never been out two
24:01
Speaker 2: weeks in a row.
24:02
Speaker 1: Now we're spiraling. Now, we're just in a bad place.
24:05
Speaker 1: We tried to keep it together for a good twenty
24:07
Speaker 1: five minutes and we are just no.
24:09
Speaker 2: That survivor hurt because I saw that coming a mile
24:12
Speaker 2: the way and I still stepped right into it.
24:14
Speaker 1: Oh my god. I'm been a survivor where you got
24:16
Speaker 1: to choose two teams at least twice between two and ten.
24:19
Speaker 1: Between weeks two and weeks ten, I chose the Ravens
24:25
Speaker 1: and the Cowboys. Right, I'm like, double.
24:30
Speaker 2: Out, it's not out.
24:32
Speaker 1: So we didn't do the Raiders, didn't even discuss it.
24:35
Speaker 1: We like, we talked about the Browns a lot, and
24:41
Speaker 1: I felt like I felt like I liked the Browns
24:48
Speaker 1: more than you did, definitely, but we were both nervous
24:51
Speaker 1: about Deshaun Watson. Yeah, Trevor Lawrence is. I don't think
24:55
Speaker 1: he's very good. He's like like fourteen of thirty for
24:59
Speaker 1: two hundred twenty yards and he is just missing players
25:03
Speaker 1: making bad decisions. I continue to not see what people
25:09
Speaker 1: are seeing that makes them believe this can be a
25:13
Speaker 1: playoff caliber team.
25:16
Speaker 2: No, you're right, and he was definitely my biggest miss
25:19
Speaker 2: of since we've been doing the show of guys coming
25:21
Speaker 2: out of college into the draft class. Right, I did
25:23
Speaker 2: put him up there as a Camus prospect. Though this
25:26
Speaker 2: kid will be a pro bowler, the leadest team to
25:28
Speaker 2: the playoffs. He's going to be a staple for a
25:30
Speaker 2: team for ten years. And you're right, he's not looked
25:33
Speaker 2: that way in a year. So the one year he
25:37
Speaker 2: was good to us, he got me and Chad the
25:38
Speaker 2: big win ten to one in their division, and I
25:41
Speaker 2: think that's why we have a little bit of a
25:42
Speaker 2: sweet spot for him.
25:44
Speaker 3: But you're complete correct.
25:45
Speaker 2: I mean that game, he had opportunities and he did
25:48
Speaker 2: not take advantage of it, and he was just terrible
25:50
Speaker 2: for about three quarters.
25:51
Speaker 1: So he had so many chances to win that game.
25:55
Speaker 1: It was just astonishing how frustrating that was to watch.
26:00
Speaker 1: He's now lost his last seven starts, including four games
26:05
Speaker 1: as a favorite. So certainly we're going to be betting
26:08
Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars next week, all right, So those are
26:12
Speaker 1: the games that we left out good for us. By
26:14
Speaker 1: the way, we didn't bet the Giants and Daniel Jones.
26:18
Speaker 1: We stayed away from the Titans and Will Levis. We
26:22
Speaker 1: obviously didn't do the Panthers. Like a lot of the
26:26
Speaker 1: games where we could have been tempted, we weren't. We
26:29
Speaker 1: just made bad decisions about the games that ultimately we
26:32
Speaker 1: put in, which is unfortunate. One of the good decisions
26:35
Speaker 1: which we were.
26:36
Speaker 2: On the rams in either though, that was another thing
26:39
Speaker 2: we talked about.
26:40
Speaker 1: All right, Yeah, we talked about the Rams. We stayed
26:43
Speaker 1: away from that, so you know what good for us?
26:46
Speaker 1: Good for it came to basically, it came down to
26:47
Speaker 1: like four or five games that were coin flips, and
26:51
Speaker 1: we just made the wrong choices on four or five
26:54
Speaker 1: four or five.
26:55
Speaker 2: Back weeks of that though, like the games we left
26:57
Speaker 2: out no doubters, and this week in the Patriots, we
27:00
Speaker 2: talked about briefly because they were three and a half
27:02
Speaker 2: and we left them out and it's like, of course
27:04
Speaker 2: that came right down to that number.
27:06
Speaker 3: Typical.
27:08
Speaker 1: We did not take the bait on the Colts when
27:13
Speaker 1: Malik Willis was the starter. In fact, we liked the Packers.
27:19
Speaker 1: The wise guys liked the Packers. This line moved from
27:21
Speaker 1: three and a half to three, down to two. Closed
27:25
Speaker 1: at three. Anthony Richardson came down to earth through ugly picks,
27:31
Speaker 1: confused outmatch. But this was Matt Lafleur, like just a
27:36
Speaker 1: brilliant game plan from the very beginning. He made Malik
27:40
Speaker 1: Willis comfortable and had this Packers team dominating.
27:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I feel like we both nailed it right.
27:47
Speaker 2: We said we'd believe in little Floor getting somehow figuring
27:50
Speaker 2: this out, and we said we didn't think Green Bay's
27:53
Speaker 2: defense was as bad as they played in that Eagles game,
27:55
Speaker 2: and that they would have ways to attack Anthony Richardson
27:58
Speaker 2: and kind of make them one dimensional.
28:00
Speaker 3: That's what happened in this game.
28:01
Speaker 2: I mean, Anthony never got any type of rhythm even
28:04
Speaker 2: even heading to that fourth quarter. They finally were able
28:06
Speaker 2: to drive the field and get a touchdown but it
28:09
Speaker 2: just took them forever to kind of get that together
28:11
Speaker 2: where Green Blay played just the exact game they wanted
28:14
Speaker 2: to play, right. I think Molik only threw the ball
28:17
Speaker 2: ten times maybe I remember at one point he was
28:19
Speaker 2: aprin nine for like fifty yards and it's like, okay,
28:21
Speaker 2: this is how Lafour is going to play this right,
28:23
Speaker 2: just super conservative, Just feed Josh Jacobs to eat away
28:26
Speaker 2: at that clock. And they did exactly what they want
28:29
Speaker 2: to do that. That game couldn't have gone any more
28:30
Speaker 2: perfect for that Green Bay team. You know, the two
28:34
Speaker 2: and a half never in doubt, right, that was like
28:37
Speaker 2: our one little conversation beforehand was well, obviously we wish
28:40
Speaker 2: we had the three, the three and a half, which
28:42
Speaker 2: most people in their contest were having, or if you're
28:44
Speaker 2: going to bet it against the spread, but another nice spot,
28:47
Speaker 2: we don't let it scare us off. We were just like,
28:48
Speaker 2: you know what, this is still a good number even
28:52
Speaker 2: if Anthony Richardson hit that hellmeor we were still good
28:54
Speaker 2: with the cover. That's always a nice spot to be
28:57
Speaker 2: And so yeah, desperately need one win today to avoid
29:01
Speaker 2: are never We've never gone over five, which is not
29:04
Speaker 2: that great of a claim to fame, but it is
29:05
Speaker 2: for us. This is year six avoided it thanks to
29:09
Speaker 2: the Green Bay team with her backup quarterback, and that
29:12
Speaker 2: to me, that game sums up this show though, Right, Chad,
29:15
Speaker 2: there was a bunch of reasons why we shouldn't have
29:16
Speaker 2: taken Green Bay, but we trusted the number, trusted the coaching.
29:21
Speaker 3: And at the end of the day, there was never
29:23
Speaker 3: a doubt between those two things.
29:24
Speaker 2: Right. There was definitely a coaching advantage and the number
29:26
Speaker 2: was just a great number to be on. So yeah,
29:29
Speaker 2: thank god we got that win.
29:32
Speaker 1: Malik Willis thirteen of fourteen in the game. But to
29:36
Speaker 1: give you an example of what kind of uh, what
29:40
Speaker 1: kind of passes? He was throwing eight yards per pass,
29:43
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty two total yards, Like he was
29:46
Speaker 1: just throwing to the first guy. It was open within
29:49
Speaker 1: four or five yards of the line of scrimmage. Had
29:51
Speaker 1: a lot of great runs forty one yards rushing, but
29:54
Speaker 1: this was Josh Jacobs, you know, one hundred and fifty
29:56
Speaker 1: one yards rushing. The only the only bad thing was
30:01
Speaker 1: fumbling as he went into the end zone. In years
30:05
Speaker 1: past and in weeks past, that has burned us significantly.
30:10
Speaker 1: When a team is up ten to nothing, about to score,
30:12
Speaker 1: and it seems to happen like at least four or
30:15
Speaker 1: five times a year. That happened last week with Travis
30:18
Speaker 1: atn when we had the Jags at plus three and
30:21
Speaker 1: a half, barely got out of that game with a win.
30:27
Speaker 1: But it didn't burn us because Matt Lafleur is impervious
30:29
Speaker 1: to those kind of mistakes. That's how good of a
30:32
Speaker 1: coach he is. All right, So one and four not great,
30:36
Speaker 1: not great, but different decision making. We could have been
30:39
Speaker 1: two and three, we could have been three and two.
30:41
Speaker 1: We got to work with each other. We got to
30:43
Speaker 1: continue to communicate, We got to continue you know what
30:45
Speaker 1: we got to do. We just got to tell each
30:48
Speaker 1: other the truth. We just we just we have to
30:51
Speaker 1: tell us each other exactly what we're thinking about, whatever
30:54
Speaker 1: we're thinking. We can't try to be nice to each other.
30:58
Speaker 1: Just cold hard truths.
31:01
Speaker 2: Simon, you can't handle the truth, Well.
31:07
Speaker 1: That's also true, but I can handle that, Sue, get
31:10
Speaker 1: it right again.
31:11
Speaker 2: It's just we've made we took positions made earlier reads
31:15
Speaker 2: and I just said it. At the base of our
31:17
Speaker 2: biggest issue right now is we're zero for four in
31:19
Speaker 2: this contest against Sam Darnald and Derek Carr that we
31:22
Speaker 2: can We can talk all day when we want about
31:24
Speaker 2: all our different picks. That is our biggest issues right
31:27
Speaker 2: now is we are being murdered by Sam Donald and
31:30
Speaker 2: Derek Carr in the year twenty twenty four.
31:33
Speaker 1: Oh my god, betting is the worst.
31:36
Speaker 2: It's the best.
31:37
Speaker 1: It's just the worst. But now I'm looking at these
31:40
Speaker 1: lines next week, and with.
31:43
Speaker 2: Some good ones, there's there's nothing that jumps out to you.
31:47
Speaker 2: What do you think easiest one right now is the
31:51
Speaker 2: Saints are plus two and a half against the Eagles.
31:53
Speaker 1: So I was looking at that, but I wanted to
31:55
Speaker 1: see you know, that stinks.
31:59
Speaker 2: People were coming on the especially if they wipe the
32:01
Speaker 2: floor with this Atlanta team. So that's one, like Chad
32:03
Speaker 2: was about to say, we could wait and see on that. Right,
32:06
Speaker 2: maybe the Eagles do win big and we can get
32:08
Speaker 2: a plus three, but there's something effishly about that Eagles
32:12
Speaker 2: line in generally. I think you were on earlier this
32:14
Speaker 2: week or you talked how you kind of liked Atlanta.
32:17
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna grab a two and a half just
32:18
Speaker 2: in case the Eagles do somehow lose this game and
32:21
Speaker 2: this number does drop down to a pick because right now,
32:25
Speaker 2: the way the Saints are playing, I don't think the
32:28
Speaker 2: Eagles are two and a half points better than them
32:30
Speaker 2: right like that, That to me feels like a little
32:33
Speaker 2: bit of a reaction where this Eagles team is good,
32:35
Speaker 2: but they're not that completely formed team. They're just gonna
32:38
Speaker 2: go on the road and roll this Saints team by
32:41
Speaker 2: three points. I just I think that's an interesting early line.
32:44
Speaker 2: Another one that jumped out to me. I don't know
32:46
Speaker 2: how you feel about this one is the Titans their
32:48
Speaker 2: minus two at home against Malik. I know That's what
32:53
Speaker 2: I'm saying, though, Like this is a gross spot you
32:55
Speaker 2: kind of want to play where it's like everyone's out
32:58
Speaker 2: in Tennessee.
32:58
Speaker 3: No one's going to be on Tennisee in the spot.
33:01
Speaker 2: That was just another one that jumped out to me,
33:02
Speaker 2: Chad Chad hates all right, let's find something that Chad
33:05
Speaker 2: no no. I did.
33:06
Speaker 1: I look. I saw. I looked at the Tennessee game,
33:09
Speaker 1: and I'm like.
33:10
Speaker 2: What about Raiders minus seven against the fucking Panthers? Can
33:13
Speaker 2: we can we listen to our fans who told us
33:15
Speaker 2: just bet against the Panthers every week for a year
33:18
Speaker 2: and see how it works out for us, which right now,
33:20
Speaker 2: that guy's two.
33:21
Speaker 3: And o this season.
33:23
Speaker 1: Gardner Minshew with two and O.
33:26
Speaker 2: Who's I'm saying, people are whoever?
33:28
Speaker 1: Whoever?
33:29
Speaker 2: I don't Caroline every week just bet the other side,
33:32
Speaker 2: and uh, they're they're they're they're right.
33:35
Speaker 3: They should be hosting this show.
33:36
Speaker 1: What about Baltimore is a one point favorite in or
33:40
Speaker 1: Dallas is a one point dog against Baltimore at home.
33:44
Speaker 3: I got no clue to what.
33:45
Speaker 2: To do with that line because a pardon me, wants
33:46
Speaker 2: to take Lamar like, but I have no I have
33:52
Speaker 2: no read on that one. I did see that line,
33:54
Speaker 2: but it's I'm gonna i'm a classic thing. I'll turn
33:57
Speaker 2: to Evan once that trend comes around that I fl
33:59
Speaker 2: more flip to a dog.
34:01
Speaker 3: I'll probably be on Lamar. Right, but people are going
34:05
Speaker 3: to bet that Professional or.
34:06
Speaker 1: Republic rams seven and a half underdogs at home against
34:11
Speaker 1: San Francisco.
34:15
Speaker 3: Another line like, I'll take it, but.
34:17
Speaker 1: That's gonna be a game we want to bet for sure.
34:21
Speaker 1: The wise guys are going to come in and move that.
34:23
Speaker 1: They're gonna take that hook right away.
34:26
Speaker 2: I have a lot of really hooks like you can
34:28
Speaker 2: get Vikings plus three and a half against the Texans,
34:31
Speaker 2: and you can get Arizona plus three and a half
34:34
Speaker 2: against Detroit. Like, those are also hooks. Where do you
34:38
Speaker 2: think those hooks go down? You think destroy ends minus three?
34:42
Speaker 3: Yep?
34:44
Speaker 1: I think the Rams at seven plus seven.
34:49
Speaker 2: Rams are seven and a half on bet three six five.
34:51
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I think they're gonna
34:53
Speaker 1: go to say I think it's gonna go okay minus seven.
34:57
Speaker 3: They could, but.
35:01
Speaker 2: They're fucking bad man, that Rams team. Like Cooper cup
35:05
Speaker 2: our guy, he had a bad ankle in the second quarter.
35:09
Speaker 2: He didn't play the rest of that game. I know
35:10
Speaker 2: they were down by thirty points of that game. But
35:14
Speaker 2: so you have no Puka, no Cooper, and you have
35:18
Speaker 2: I think only one starter left on their offensive line.
35:22
Speaker 2: The line does make sense, so I don't want to
35:24
Speaker 2: get too ahead of it. I might not fire away
35:26
Speaker 2: on that one yet because I can't see that one
35:30
Speaker 2: going down.
35:31
Speaker 3: It's just all bad, just real quick.
35:33
Speaker 2: I want to get your early feeling about this before
35:35
Speaker 2: the Bears even play Bears plus one and a half
35:38
Speaker 2: at the Colts next week.
35:40
Speaker 1: Yeah. I looked at that.
35:44
Speaker 2: You think they covered tonight that goes down to a pick. Yes,
35:52
Speaker 2: I'm gonna throw a little on the Bears, even though
35:57
Speaker 2: I have bet Houston. I do think Houston covers tonight.
36:02
Speaker 2: I don't know if the Colts deserve to be a
36:04
Speaker 2: favorite over anybody right now. Now.
36:06
Speaker 1: Their defense was not good, and their rush defense especially
36:10
Speaker 1: was really bad. The problem is, like what we've seen
36:17
Speaker 1: from Shane Steichen as a coach is more impressive than
36:20
Speaker 1: what we've seen from that Ebra Fluse as a coach,
36:24
Speaker 1: whereas laflor is a top five coach in the NFL.
36:28
Speaker 1: So like the game plan will be different. They'll be
36:33
Speaker 1: at home. I think it'll be a little bit like
36:35
Speaker 1: I like the way this is lined right now. I
36:40
Speaker 1: might even take the Colts because I think if the
36:44
Speaker 1: Bears get killed, which they probably will tonight, could go
36:49
Speaker 1: a little bit higher.
36:51
Speaker 2: We'll just keep it a little clean so people know
36:53
Speaker 2: exactly what I'm grabbing. I'm grabbing Tennessee now minus two
36:58
Speaker 2: against Green Bay. I'm in the Saints right now plus
37:01
Speaker 2: two and a half against.
37:02
Speaker 3: The Eagles, and I gotta do it, man. I got
37:05
Speaker 3: to grab the Raiders minus seven against the Panthers. It's
37:07
Speaker 3: just I can't get over how poorly coached.
37:12
Speaker 2: This Panthers team is in every aspect, from the defensive
37:15
Speaker 2: side to the offensive side.
37:17
Speaker 3: It's all so bad. And at least this.
37:19
Speaker 2: Raiders team, I feel like more and more we're seeing
37:22
Speaker 2: exactly what their identity is, right Chad. It's like they
37:25
Speaker 2: got this defensive line that they're not going to always
37:28
Speaker 2: give you problems. When they need to, they can give
37:29
Speaker 2: you major problems, and we saw that it pop up
37:31
Speaker 2: a couple.
37:32
Speaker 3: Of times in this game.
37:34
Speaker 2: And offensively, I feel like they're gonna be a bullyball
37:37
Speaker 2: this Panthers team. So the professionals, they might come in
37:41
Speaker 2: on the other side, but I just I think they've
37:44
Speaker 2: been burned.
37:44
Speaker 3: So bad these last two weeks. I know I have
37:46
Speaker 3: by this Panthers team.
37:48
Speaker 2: I wouldn't touch this unless I got up to ten.
37:50
Speaker 2: So I don't know what they're going to do with
37:52
Speaker 2: this one. But that's that's how low I am on
37:54
Speaker 2: this Panthers team right now.
37:56
Speaker 1: Well, that didn't take long for us to go from
37:58
Speaker 1: thinking they were potentially gonna win the NFC South to
38:03
Speaker 1: now we are so low we won't even bet them
38:05
Speaker 1: as massive underdogs again.
38:08
Speaker 2: It's crazy where my model loves them like even after
38:11
Speaker 2: that loss yesterday, I have this line at six in
38:17
Speaker 2: what world? That's what I'm saying, though, my computer's a
38:19
Speaker 2: fucking idiot, And what world would you give that current
38:22
Speaker 2: number that Bryce Young? Like he just does not deserve it.
38:25
Speaker 2: So I'm just this is more of a human thing
38:28
Speaker 2: where it's like, I'm I know the numbers is gonna
38:31
Speaker 2: say this is a team you want to back, and
38:33
Speaker 2: the number has gotten too big, and obviously it's it's insane.
38:36
Speaker 2: I think Minshew's a seven point favorite over anybody, but
38:40
Speaker 2: this is who it would be, a team with no identity,
38:43
Speaker 2: no backbone, and I mean they have to have one
38:45
Speaker 2: of the worst defensive lines in all of football. I
38:48
Speaker 2: mean they just cannot stop offenses from running the ball.
38:50
Speaker 2: So this this plays right into this bully mentality of
38:53
Speaker 2: the Traders team. And it's like I wanted to fade
38:56
Speaker 2: them because it's a letdown spot after this huge road
38:58
Speaker 2: win against the Ravens team. But this is the perfect
39:02
Speaker 2: team to have come into town against this Panthers team.
39:04
Speaker 1: So yeah. Also, I think the letdown happens more often
39:07
Speaker 1: when you're a really good team that has had a
39:10
Speaker 1: win like that. Then if you're a bad team where
39:14
Speaker 1: expectations are low, and the one thing Antonio appears has
39:16
Speaker 1: proven he can do is get his team up for
39:20
Speaker 1: a game, right, Like forget about in game coaching, which
39:24
Speaker 1: he did a very nice job against the Ravens and
39:26
Speaker 1: out coach John Harbaugh. But I don't think he'll have
39:31
Speaker 1: any problem getting his team ready and seeing how to
39:34
Speaker 1: stay motivated against the Panthers team. Don't want to bet
39:37
Speaker 1: the Raiders and minus seven, not yet, but I can
39:42
Speaker 1: understand this not being a letdown spot for sure.
39:45
Speaker 2: What number would that Titans number have to be for
39:47
Speaker 2: you to come around eventually?
39:51
Speaker 1: Pick? Seriously? Like Will Levis is so so bad, so bad,
40:03
Speaker 1: Like they didn't win that they like they didn't cover
40:06
Speaker 1: today and they had plenty of opportunities to Yeah, I
40:09
Speaker 1: thought their defense actually played really well. So the question
40:13
Speaker 1: is like can they do things defensively that the Colts
40:17
Speaker 1: were not able to do? But I'm not ready to
40:23
Speaker 1: to bet on Tennessee even we.
40:25
Speaker 3: Have to find some oh and two teams you like though,
40:28
Speaker 3: Like that's the big thing.
40:29
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, totale, there's oh and two teams that you
40:32
Speaker 2: just simply have to you have to back because historically
40:35
Speaker 2: these are good. I mean, I don't all have the
40:37
Speaker 2: trends for us, but I just know these are usually
40:39
Speaker 2: spots we want to bet, just because again I'm looking
40:42
Speaker 2: at this as what who what team is everyone completely
40:44
Speaker 2: out on other than the Panthers, I mean Titans have
40:48
Speaker 2: to be number two or three? I mean all better.
40:50
Speaker 2: Is like even pros I've talked to are so out
40:53
Speaker 2: on this team. They thought this was a smash spot
40:56
Speaker 2: against this Jets team in a short week, right, And
40:59
Speaker 2: it looked that way. You just said, for three quarters
41:01
Speaker 2: they were feeling pretty smart and then somehow they get
41:04
Speaker 2: rolled and they lose by seven, which is just crazy.
41:07
Speaker 3: So I get your hesitation.
41:09
Speaker 2: I'm just I'm trying to get get your mind ready
41:11
Speaker 2: for just some this horrible, painful that this upcoming week.
41:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I'm more inclined to take the O and
41:19
Speaker 1: two Colts at minus one and a half versus taking
41:22
Speaker 1: the O and two Titans at minus two because I
41:27
Speaker 1: think the coaching advantage is so much greater for the Colts,
41:31
Speaker 1: the talent at quarterback is so much greater for the Colts.
41:34
Speaker 1: We've seen them perform against a really good team. The
41:37
Speaker 1: Bears are not a really good team, so the idea
41:40
Speaker 1: of getting the Colts at minus one and a half
41:42
Speaker 1: that I was surprised that that was sort of a
41:45
Speaker 1: game where you might be leaning towards the Bears a
41:47
Speaker 1: little bit because I know we have to bet an
41:49
Speaker 1: o and two team, right I'd rather bet a very
41:53
Speaker 1: short home favorite in the Colts than a short home
41:57
Speaker 1: favorite in the Titans. With Will Levis, who you know
42:00
Speaker 1: he will make. He's done it twice in the past
42:03
Speaker 1: two weeks. He will make the mistake that is bone headed.
42:05
Speaker 1: That is not the mistake you should make. That we'll
42:07
Speaker 1: have catastrophic impact.
42:11
Speaker 3: You're right, And.
42:12
Speaker 2: Again you mentioned the Ravens. They're an zero and two
42:14
Speaker 2: team that kind of fits that bill where we're talking about.
42:16
Speaker 2: So you're right, there are better, better teams we can
42:19
Speaker 2: take with the and two record. But I'm just trying
42:22
Speaker 2: to find us what's the grossest ones right now and
42:25
Speaker 2: that you know, I'm not going to force in the
42:27
Speaker 2: Giants plus seven obviously, and I don't I don't think
42:31
Speaker 2: we want to force in Denver plus seven in that spot.
42:34
Speaker 2: They're they're on the road right now against this Bucks team.
42:37
Speaker 2: So Kyrie Evans sat amazing. Evan Abrams stat Yeah, winless
42:41
Speaker 2: teams in game three forty two, twenty three and one
42:45
Speaker 2: against the spread, so sixty five percent in the last
42:48
Speaker 2: decade first teams with at least one win. So there's
42:51
Speaker 2: a little bit of method to this madness. We'll find these,
42:53
Speaker 2: oh for two teams we agree on. But kad, all
42:56
Speaker 2: your points a by the Titans are very valid.
43:00
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