Latest / Financial Survival Network / Gold Consolidation Before Moving Higher -- David Erfle #5820

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Gold Consolidation Before Moving Higher -- David Erfle #5820 · Financial Survival Network

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  Yeah, Well, if you're talking about the gold price and gold stocks,
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  which is my area of expertise, I think the gold price has more consolidation
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  to do here. I could see it easily going down to you know,
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  in nineteen hundred level. It's trying to bottom here at nineteen fifty where there's
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  some support. You're listening to Carrie Letts's Financial Survival Network where you get valuable
• 0:22
  information you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You
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  need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survival Network
• 0:34
  dot com and get your free newsletter in gift Financial Survival Network now more than
• 0:41
  ever, And welcome you are listening to watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm
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  your host, Carrie lets our good friend David Earthley. It's with us from
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  Junior, my minor junkie dot com and the Hey, David, like,
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  price of the metals is doing good, but the price of the stock not
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  so good. What gives well, it all depends on your point of view,
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  right um. You know we had the gold price go up over four
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  hundred and fifty dollars and six months from a triple bottom of sixteen twenty after
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  a false breakdown, you know, it's it's funny. Um. During this
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  consolidation, both bulls and bears alike have been supremely frustrated. So but the
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  gold stocks, you know, after the after the gold price went up so
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  much, gold stocks went up sixty five percent from their loans that the GDXJ
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  and the GX you know, which is two times leverage basically because the gold
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  price went up over thirty percent in six months and the gold stocks went up
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  sixty five percent in those six months. So consolidation time for both of those
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  moves. That's that's to be expected. But the juniors, you know,
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  they continue to lack um, you know, which is also their history.
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  And when you have an accumulative bottoming process, it's always the majors and the
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  royalty streaming plays that that do the best coming out of them, and then
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  eventually it trickles down to the juniors, and that happened hasn't happened yet.
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  You know, There's been select cases where some juniors have done well, but
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  on the whole, juniors continue to lack um. They continue to be very
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  very reasonably priced. I should you know, I should say they're they're ridiculously
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  priced because you know, most of these juniors they're training at at below forty
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  dollars announced in the ground. You know, they've they've proved up these multi
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  million ounced deposits and um, they're showing blue sky potential and they're showing the
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  majors. Hey, we've got these big deposits, we've de risked them up
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  to a certain point, and we're still able to raise money. The quality
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  come to the quality. Juniors that are D risking quality projects are still able
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  to raise money. Um, but it's it's the it's smaller juniors that are
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  lower on the totem pole in the in the d risking phase. Some of
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  them are having a hard time raising money and they're having to give away a
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  full warrant at a lower price than they expected to raise money. And it's
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  really hit their if their share price is hard and you know, the games
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  that are that continue to be played on Base Street, UM, you know
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  exacerbate this fact. You know, Um, if if you if funds hear
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  about a company that that is going to be raising money, you know they
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  can manipulate the stock lower and um, you know these games will continue to
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  be played here. They wouldn't do that, would they. You know what,
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  in in bullmarkets you have you know, um retail money come in and
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  stop up the access. When that happens, they an opportunity. But for
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  the past decade, basically we've been trading amongst ourselves. The generalist investor,
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  the retail investor hasn't been in this sector. They left in twenty thirteen when
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  the gold price broke down after the last bull market, and they yet to
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  return. So it makes it more difficult for us because we're trading against these
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  these really intelligence skilled resource investors who know all these games, and they also
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  know about when if they take a look at a company and they say,
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  okay, this company has just released great results, right, but they're going
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  to use that press release of great results as a liquidity event to sell the
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  stock if the company isn't cashed up for the next year or so, because
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  they see that Okay, they've they've they've put out these great results, but
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  they're going to need some more money pretty soon. So we're gonna wait for
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  the finance and get into the stock a lot cheaper at at a lower price
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  and probably get at least a half warrant or even a full warrant at the
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  same time. So these you know, this is going to continue until the
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  gold price as a solid floor at two thousand dollars an ounce, and we're
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  just not ready to have that take place yet. And a signal of that
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  will be a monthly close above two hundred. We almost had it last month.
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  The gold price closed I think eighty cents below two thousand dollars. And
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  once we have a monthly close above two thousand, I think then a floor
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  will start to be built in two thousand. But we need a monthly close
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  above twenty one hundred to signify a breakout in the gold price. Hey,
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  these operators will even sell the company's stock short when they have that momentous press
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  release, keep it down, keep it muted, and then they buy in
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  at the private placement, which will be depressed. The offering is going to
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  be at a depressed price. They've got a locked in profit and free warrants.
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  And then when they hold periods over for the warrants, if there is
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  a whole period rather for the shares, they dumped the shares and hold the
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  warrants right right. It's it's even happening to companies that don't need money and
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  don't need to finance. Um I had recently a CEO tell me, I
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  have a company that I've been in, I've been invested in for for a
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  year or so, you know, accumulating shares and um I saw a huge
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  volume in the stock after a very positive press release drill results come out,
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  and um he told me that yes, that was a fund using the excess
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  liquidity to to sell some to unload a position. But the next day the
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  stock went down feen percent on no volume, and I so, I'm I'm
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  so, I inquired and will know what happened there. He basically said,
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  um uh a bank came to us with uh a charity flow through deal that
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  we didn't need and that we didn't want, but they shopped it so hard
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  the market got ahold of it and figured that they were going to be raising
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  money. So they showed at the stock and you know, in an illiquid
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  market, got the got the share price down really low, and it's and
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  a share price is still down there even though they don't need money. They've
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  got thirty five million in the treasury, fully financed until the end of next
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  year, even if they wanted to, and they've got multimillions of ounces in
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  the ground in a top tier jurisdiction. You know, they're doing all the
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  right things. They're raising money at the right times, de risking the project
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  jack and things like this happened. So when things like this happened and there's
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  no retail around to come in and say, look, wow, look at
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  this company. Look at this. This stock is down fifteen percent on no
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  news. This is an opportunity. When that, when that money is not
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  there seeing that, then the stock continues to wallow lower. I mean,
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  if you look at the volume on the TSX venture, volume hasn't been this
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  low on the venture exchange since the gold price was trading below three hundred dollars
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  and ounced twenty years ago. There's nobody cares about the center right now.
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  It's incredible the opportunity. You just have to you can't use margin and you
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  have to be investing cash that you don't need right now that eventually the gold
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  price is going to break out and eventually, you know, these generalist investors
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  will come back. It's just not yet. The timing's not riking, all
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  right. So another dude, but look at the price as silver, how
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  strong that has been until recently. Yeah, it's it's amazing. Yeah,
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  I mean, you had you had that help, You had that four hundred
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  and fifty dollars move in the gold price right in six months. That needs
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  to consolidate. And the hint that the consolidate was going to call consolidation was
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  going to come was the silver price suddenly showing strong relative weakness to the gold
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  price along with the miners. That was a hint that that was going to
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  happen. And that started the Monday after the Federal Reserve came out and hinted
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  that they that they might not be raising rates in the next meeting, which
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  is in the middle of June. But then of course after after they said
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  that, um, other fedheads have come out and hinted that they will be
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  raising rates, and um, you know, it's it's all this FED speak
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  around the the the rate hide policy you see. In the short term,
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  it's it's a it's a debt ceiling complete theater. That's going to be you
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  know, the catalyst for the gold price. You know, if if if
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  they come out with you know, um, a resolution early, which I
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  highly doubt um, then the gold price is going to get hit. But
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  if they continue to play chicken, which I expect they will until you know,
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  the drop dead date, which some say it's June Firth like like yelling.
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  Some say it's the fifth or even ten, when they when the treasury
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  runs out of money. But you know, eventually they're they're gonna they're gonna
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  raise the debt ceiling. I mean, what is this dead ceiling? I
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  mean it's it's not existed. Obviously it can't be. You can't have a
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  debt ceiling. We have to continue to borrow and borrow and borrow to pay
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  to pay money that we can't pay back. Yeah, I mean, how
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  is this gonna happen here? Really? Dad? I mean yeah, everybody
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  has to come out looking good like they acted for the better of the country,
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  right Blue, Like oh yeah, yeah exactly, And each one thinks
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  they have the upper hand. You know. It's it's so tight in Congress
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  there and there's no and there's not very much bipartisanship left. I mean,
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  you just have Marjorie Taylor Green issue um issue impeachment papers on the president and
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  at some of his you know, some of the people so and they should
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  be impeached exactly, you know, those on themselves right. Yeah, it's
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  like, which crime family do you want to trust? Here? It's you
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  know and that and that is dividing the country even more so, I trust
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  crime families more than I crime family running the government because crime families at least
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  act in the interest of self preservation, which is why they kill you.
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  But these guys couldn't care less about self preservation. They're into instant gratification.
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  Yes, and you know eventually they're going to raise that debt ceiling because all
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  their pensions depend on it. Well, every everything depends on it, corrects
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  on it. Yeah, every that depends on it. So it's like,
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  if you're into self deception, then you're worried about it. If you know
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  that that these guys are going to do what they have to do to keep
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  the party going, then you know that the debt ceiling is completely meaningless.
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  It's just a chance to try to score political points on your so called adversaries,
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  right right, yeah, exactly, yes, yeah, So so now
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  that the good news, now that we've solved that problem here, right,
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  we've solved that problem with David. But but patients, you need to be
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  patient in this market. We know what's going to happen here, right,
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  I mean, well, we're between inflationary and deflationary. They keep raising rates,
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  Everything crashes, everything deflates, they raise rates, everything gets higher and
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  higher in price, and either in either of the scenarios, precious metals is
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  going to be what's left over, right exactly, I mean picture poison.
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  Yeah, I mean, they continue to raise interest rates. It brings us
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  closer and closer to recession. You see, you know, you see all
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  these indicators showing that a recept is going to happen. You know, um
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  now a soft a soft landing is being is pretty much by the wayside.
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  Now it's going to be a lot harder than they expect because they keep raising
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  rates, and you know, credit continues to tighten, and the yield curve
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  continues to show that that this recession is going to start pretty soon, and
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  gold usually consolidates, goes lower into recessions, and then once the recession takes
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  place, that's when it takes off and people start buying gold for protection.
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  I mean, I mean, that's the gold is the biggest protection for for
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  for recession and basically loss of faith in governments and their monetary policy, and
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  people continue to lose faith. You look at these gallop poles. They're losing
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  faith in the FED, They're losing faith in in the system. Um,
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  they're they're they're losing faith and politicians. I want to know who had faith
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  at this point? Who who are the people that had faith? Anyway?
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  That's certainly not you or I right, No, it hasn't been you or
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  an eye for quite some time. Are these people that still have faith in
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  your government? Because I don't know who they are? Honestly, certainly nobody
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  I've talked to in the past five years, at least you you know anybody?
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  Or are we just in a bubble? Yes? I think we're going
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  to bubble this. You know, you see a lot of people on the
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  street walking around with rose colored glasses on. You know they don't. I
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  don't really want to think about things like that. I've got other other problems
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  on my mind and vampaign credit card bill and over fifty percent of the countries
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  might have been paycheck to paycheck now nobody has any savings. And it's not
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  worrying about it, right right, that's not gonna worry about it. I'm
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  just gonna try to feed my family the best I can. There's nothing I
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  can do about it. So I'm just going to continue to work as hard
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  as I can to feed my family, try to stay at it dead.
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  But that is that is getting more and more difficult with credit card and rates
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  rising exponentially as the as the interest rate rises. Yeah, no, I
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  couldn't agree with you more. It's just being a little facetious. But but
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  let's face it. You know, the only people that have confidence in the
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  government is the government itself, right right, which continues to get bigger.
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  Yeah, yeah, well, no, wonder they'd have confidence, right man.
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  I don't know. I don't know what we've been, what people are
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  thinking. I just have no idea about Yeah, it's no, it boggles
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  my mind as well. Yeah. So, and I live in California,
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  so it's you know, I mean there's a lot more rules colored glass wearing
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  people where I live. I think they're wearing rose colored helmets. Honestly,
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  I mean it's kind of ridiculous here, but hey, ignorance got us into
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  this mess, and ignorance will get us out, right, David, what
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  way or another? Yes? Yeah, so I would ask where do we
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  go from here? But I kind of like don't really want to hear the
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  answer. Yeah, Well, if you're talking about the gold price and gold
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  stocks, which is my area of expertise, Um, I think the gold
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  price has more consolidation to do here. I could see it easily going down
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  to you know, um in nineteen hundred level. It's trying to bottom here
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  at nineteen fifty where there's some support, all right, and there's up trend
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  lines aboard at nineteen twenty five. But I think nineteen hundred is probably baked
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  in. But it all depends on you know, these zundress events. Ye
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  say that word, right, events that that could take place. Um.
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  You know, we still got a dead ceiling crisis going, we still got
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  a credit crisis going. We still got ongoing war, which it doesn't look
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  like it's going to end. It looks like it's going to ratchet up even
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  more. Um, you know, and and war is more inflationary than anything.
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  I mean, that is the most fitting Mary. Yeah, the FED
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  continues to have this fantasy of of a two percent inflation rate park. So
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  in the short term, the gold price is looking at the dead ceiling,
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  and the intermediate term it's looking at when the FED is going to stop raising
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  rates. But in the long term, it's looking at when the FED is
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  going to be forced to a give up their fantasy of a two percent inflation
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  rate, have to raise that and then say hey, we got to start
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  cutting rates, and the market will will tell them when that's going to happen.
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  Right, All right, Well, you're just a breath of fresh air
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  today. But we appreciate your coming on as always. Tell us how we
• 17:47
  connect with you, how we subscribe to your service, why you should subscribe
• 17:52
  in the light of your earlier comments, why should we we should just stop
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  throw that in the trash can big, because every dog has at stay.
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  Not that metals are a dog, but they've been performing like a dog.
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  Yeah. Well, as far as gold stocks are argancer and carry, you
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  know the opportunity, it just keeps getting better and better as far as the
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  gold stocks price in relation to the in relation to the gold price. The
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  last time we had these low levels ut in volume twenty years ago in the
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  Venture exchange, it was a buying opportunity because once the gold price broke out
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  above five hundred dollars, then gold stocks really took off and the generalist investor
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  came into the sector. And I think that's going to be equal to the
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  gold price finally getting over two thousand dollars and two thousand becoming a floor as
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  opposed to a twelve year ceiling. And will know that when the volume starts
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  to come into these gold stocks, you start to see volumes spiking on updates,
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  that's when you're gonna you're going to start to see general interest peak.
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  I'm not peak, but general interests start to come into the sector because,
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  like I said, they've been gone for ten years. So UM, this
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  is a great time to be patient and accumulate and definitely don't use margin,
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  especially in this sector. And um, holding the right stocks is key,
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  and my service can help you do that. I mean, I've got a
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  couple of stocks in my top ten that have been bifurcating from the sector.
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  I think one or two of my top ten juniors are going to get taken
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  over this year because I think I AM and A is going to start to
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  eat up again pretty soon. So UM, a service like mine can can
• 19:40
  get you into the right stocks and keep you there. With the news that
• 19:45
  I continue to put out about the sector and about the companies, I'm in
• 19:51
  constant contact with all the companies that I have great relationships with that I'm invested
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  in, and and I go to conferences and have live one on one meetings
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  with them as well. I'm going to another one here in September, hopefully
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  you'll be there as well, at the Precious Metals Summit in Colorado. Definitely.
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  So UM. You know, I do my due diligence and um not
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  only before I buy the stock, but after I buy the stock can stock
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  continuously for myself and my subscribers. And as you know, I put my
• 20:22
  own money into these companies as well, So I'm not just telling you to
• 20:26
  buy something that I'm not invested in it, or more importantly, that I'm
• 20:30
  getting paid to do. So I don't get paid by any of these companies.
• 20:34
  Um. Basically, I run my service like I want juniors, junior
• 20:38
  management teams to run their companies. You know, they put their own money
• 20:41
  into their companies. At the companies that I invest in, they put their
• 20:45
  own money in and they participate in financing, so they're completely aligned with shareholders
• 20:52
  like I'm aligned with my subscribery. And I might add to before you make
• 20:56
  any trade in any of your recommendation, you give twenty four hours, so
• 21:03
  we gotta go David. Thanks so much anyway. The link to David sites
• 21:07
  and the show notes this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Sign up
• 21:11
  for a free newsletter. Emails are welcome. Klatcarreluts dot com. David Pleasure,
• 21:17
  talk to you soon. Thanks Carrie. Always great pleasure talking to you