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Are These CFP Teams or Major Disappointments? · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: On today's show, we're gonna preview and give my win
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: total picks for my Power rated teams number fifteen through eleven.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: That would be Tennessee, Michigan, LSU, USC and Ole miss
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: for the twenty twenty six college football season. Welcome in.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: This is Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seegers at Gary WCE on all
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: the different socials. This is the Monday, June first edition
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: of the show, and today we are discussing the teams
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: that I have power rated number fifteen through number eleven
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: for the twenty twenty six college football season. Of course,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: so let me remind you again we're doing at least
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: a show every week until late July or beginning of August.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Then we're gonna ramp up with a lot more content
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: to make sure and click that subscribe button of course,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: like the video, jump in the comments with your thoughts
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: on all these different teams. Let's not waste time. Let's
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: going and get this show on the road. Let's talk
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: to Tennessee volunteers. Josh Hipel of course, now into I
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: believe six years into things in Knoxville and after a
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: run that you know had big Orange fans feeling like
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: the program was fully back. I mean, we had thirty
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: wins over three years, multiple top ten finishes, had a
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: college football playoff appearance. Twenty five season didn't exactly go
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: as planned, and that started back in the spring right
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: eight and five. The record barely tells the story. Tennessee
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: went zero to four against ranked opponents. They lost three
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: home games at Neeland, which is you know, really wild
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: you consider they only dropped four home games total in
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: the first four seasons combined. Under Hypel, defense got gashed
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: through the air and on the ground, and especially in
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: that game against Vanderbilt at the end, and to those
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: in Knoxville, it kind of became obvious that Tim Banks
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: was not the answer at defensive coordinator. The bright spot
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: of the season they snapped a twenty two year losing
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: streak at Florida. The dark spot was probably Georgia beating
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: them in overtime in Knoxville early in the season. And
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: that was Tennessee football in a nutshell in twenty twenty five.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: So as far as an identity, what is this program right?
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: It's an uptempo offense, run first foundation. Despite what the
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: narrative would want to tell you about it. Aggressive, built
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: on being physical with the line of scrimmage on both
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: sides of the ball. The version that showed up in
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five didn't always look like that, but that's
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: what they're hoping to be in twenty twenty six. Let's
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: talk returning production. The thing about Tennessee heading into this season.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: This team didn't starting over at all, not even close.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: You know, we talk about the fact that Joey Aguilar
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: didn't win his case against the NCAAA, so he's not
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: going to be back. But you got eight offensive starters back.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: The entire offensive line is returning. You've got five guys
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: who've got game experience. That includes the left tackle, David Sanders.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Junior Deshaun Bishop is back in the backfield. He went
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: for over a thousand yards. He earned All SEC recognition.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Mike Matthews and Braylan Stay are back at receiver. I
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: mean this is a legit experienced offensive sporting cast. On defense,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: the linebacker group comes back, of course, Arion Carter, Edwin Spilman,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: per Lot. I believe this, how use it. They're leading
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the way at linebacker safety for Rooke returns, that's a
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: workable foundation. But the bad news, and I think this
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: is a big deal. Tennessee lost all six of their
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: top pass rushers and seven of their top ten defensive
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: linemen are gone. That's bad. That's bad. Obviously we talked
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: about Tim Banks being gone. They're replaced him with Jim Knowles,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: who comes over from Penn State. Knowles brings credibility. I mean,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: you know what he did at Ohio State, Oklahoma State, etc.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: He's pulling some transfer pieces with him who already know
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: the system. That's going to speed up the transition. Most
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: people say that it takes at least two years to
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: learn Knowles's defense. This helps right as far as the
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: portal side goes. We don't really at this point, we
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: don't really know what's going on with Chas Coleman. He
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: has not reported to summer workouts yet. Apparently they're saying
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: his status is up in the air. My guess this
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: is just a guess. Okay, my guess is all of
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: those things that ros Stellinger has been talking about, about,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: all the hundreds of millions of dollars that are hung
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: up in the CSC courts or whatever you want to
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: call it. They're waiting on these things to be approved
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: so that they can make payments. Maybe that's what's going
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: on here, or it could just be like a personal matter.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Who knows. But on the portal side, they added to
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Maury Campbell from Penn State. They brought in safetyes TJ.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Metcalf from Michigan, DJ Burks from app State, and then
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: of course on the offensive side, Ryan Staub at quarterback
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: from Colorado. The losses that they did have on offense,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: obviously those are gonna hurt Joey Aguilar, Trent's I get
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: he's the NFL right left tackle. Lance Heard went to
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Kentucky Chris Brasel, he is gone as well. Bottom line
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: is this, the offense does have a real structure around
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: whoever ends up taking snaps right. You've got two guys that,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: you know, Faison Brandon I think is probably gonna win
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: this thing. That's just a guess. I could be McIntire.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, who knows, But I think whoever comes in
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: at quarterback is gonna have a lot of experience around them.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: So that's good as far as the defense goes, it's
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: a rebuild up front, and the entire thing hinges on
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: how fast Jim Knowles gets these guys to buy in
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: strengths of the team. There's two things that Tennessee's really
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: got going for him. That offensive support system is big.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Like if you're a young quarterback and you're being asked
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: to run the show in the SEC for the first time,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Tennessee is one of the better environments you could land in.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: You've got an experienced offensive line that's been together. You
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: got a you know, a legit feature back into Sean
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Bishop who can take pressure off of you. You got
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: established receivers who aren't learning the offense. Now, that's that up.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Didn't guarantee that the quarterback is going to be successful,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: but it does give them a real chance. The second
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: strength is the linebacker room is just flat out deep,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: right Arion Carter, a Mariti, Campbell, Edwin Spielman, Jaden Purlott.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: That's four guys who can all play at high level
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: in the SEC. You add in Campbell from Penn State
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: like obviously a guy that already knows what Jim Moles wants.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: You start to see how the defense can build outward
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: from that quarter Like if the linebacker group plays at
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: their ceiling and ols can get anything resembling consistency from
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: the front, then the defense can be much better than
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: it was a year ago. As far as weaknesses are concerned,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: there are some real concerns here. The biggest one is obvious.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: That's the quarterback. Who's going to play that right now?
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: The contenders George McIntyre richer freshman. The other name in
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: the mix is a true freshman, Faison Brandon, who I
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: mentioned earlier. They'll be starting a first year quarterback in
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: a nine game SEC schedule. That's I mean, it's not
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: a death sentence. Guys have done this before. Vanderbilt looks
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: like they're gonna be doing that. But you don't get
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: a grace period in this conference, right Like Georgia doesn't
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: care if you're young, Texas don't care, like they're actually
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: feasting on that kind of stuff. The second issue is
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the pass rush. Like you lose your top six rushers.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: That's not something that you plug overnight with a couple
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: of portal guys. Until somebody proves that they can get
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: to the quarterback consistently. I think opposing offenses are gonna
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: have a lot of time to carve up that back seven.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: That's how you get up points, even when your linebacker
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: course healthy the third weakness. The third concern that I'm
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: seeing is Tennessee was not exactly physical last year. Mistackles,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: run defense lapses. I mean, that stuff has got to
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: get cleaned up. If the physicality questions aren't answered early,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: they're gonna haunt you, especially in November when the schedule
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: gets a little heavy. I mean, the schedule is going
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: to be heavy in October two. But still and we
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: can talk about the schedule now. I mean, this is
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: a pretty fascinating schedule. They avoid Georgia and Oklahoma in
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: the SEC draw, which is pretty favorable I think, but
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: this is still a schedule that's going to test them.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: It is set up as one of the easier schedules
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: in the conference. They're number thirteen in conference strength schedule
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: number twenty three nationally, so thirteen out of sixteen is
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: pretty good. That's a light schedule in the SEC. But
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: it's based on you know what's coming to Neyland Stadium.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Auburn coming to Knoxville, Alabama coming to Knoxville, LSU coming
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: to Knoxville. You know, that's a pretty big deal, massive
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: home games that could divine the season early. But as
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: far as the road goes, I mean, gotta play Georgia
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Deck on the road, and I realized my graphic has
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: at home. I believe Texas is also a home game
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken. But we'll see. But that's a
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: trap game and George Tach game. We don't know what
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: to expect that at Georgia Tech. They're not gonna have
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: a buster Faulkner. But still Arkansas, South Carolina, UH, Texas,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: A and M Vanderbilt. You know, these are road trips
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: that that require full attention. The games that I'm circling,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: UH Texas at home. If Tennessee wins that one, I mean,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: the CFP conversation starts immediately because Texas is I mean,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: that's a top five, top ten team that's gonna have
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: a lot of hope, a lot of hype as well.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Alabama at home, same deal. You know, you win that one,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: that's a big deal. As far as road games. At
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: A and M, I mean that's a that's a big
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: one where young quarterbacks are gonna get exposed against that
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Mi Coco defense. And at South Carolina is interesting like
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: a tricky environment team that always plays, you know, really
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: tough against Tennessee. The schedule is kind of boom or bust. Right,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: you win the home games managed to you know, at
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: least manage the road schedule. You're baby talking ten wins,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: you lose the quarterback battle early, you get roughed up
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: on the road a couple of times. You're looking at
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: six or seven wins and probably another really disappointing November.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: You see my projected wins here, six point three eight.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: There's eight toss ups, eight one possession games are expected here.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: I've got them favored over Auburn, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky,
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: and Vanderbilt. But all of those are by yeah, about
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: a field goal or less. And then I've got them
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: an underdog by you know, a little more than a
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: field goal to A and M and a little less
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: than a field goal to LSU, and then you know,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: double digit underdog to Alabama and Texas. I mean that
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: sounds about right. I mean, it's just just ridiculous. Ceiling
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: floor here, here's where I land on Tennessee for twenty
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: twenty six. Ceiling I think is ten and two. But
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: that requires either back and Tower Brandon to develop faster
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: than most freshmen do, and the defense has got to
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: become something real under nols, and that's possible. Like, this
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: is not crazy, but it does require a lot to
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: break right. The floor I think is probably six and six,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: right if the quarterback play is inconsistent week to week,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: that pass rush never materializes, They bleed close games in
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: SEC play all season. The roster talent means they probably
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: don't fall below a bowl game, but I mean six
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: and six would be kind of a rough outcome for
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: a fan base that is expecting a lot more. Most likely,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna land on eight and four. When total sits
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half, the over is plus one
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: oh five, the under is minus one oh five. Those
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: are the best odds you can get on each one,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: So that's a different sportsbooks. I'm leaning over eight and
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: four feels like a median outcome for a team that's
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: got enough roster talent to be competitive with almost anybody
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: in the conference, but too many question marks to be consistent.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: I think, so eight and four makes sense. You lose
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: to Texas, lose to Alabama when one of A and
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: M or LSU, and then lose to somebody you're not
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: supposed to, right, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt one of those. This is a team with real
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: playoff talent that also has a lot of real uncertainty
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: right the offensive line, the running game, Jim Knowles, the
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: linebacker room. That's a good foundation, but everything this season
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: rides on whether a freshman quarterback grows up faster than
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: the SEC schedule demands it. Right, Tennessee has a roster
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: to make a run. But you know, you don't get
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: extra credit for potential here. You got to show up
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: and win some of these ball games. Are you tired
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• 12:58
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• 13:02
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• 13:06
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• 13:10
  Speaker 1: let me ask you something. What do you do when
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: you've got one of the most hyped quarterback prospects in
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: the country, a roster that is loaded with talent, and
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: you just fired your head coach after two seasons? You
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: go get Kyle Whittingham. Right, That's what Michigan did this offseason,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: And honestly, to me, I think this is the most
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: interesting coaching hire in the Big Ten. This cycle, Whittingham
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: built Utah into a program that really punched above his
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: weight for two decades, and now he walks into ann
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Arbor with a roster that has more raw talent than
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: anything he's ever coached, and a schedule that could absolutely
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: humble anybody, like it's it's year one in the Big
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Ten with I mean they're playing everybody. There's no grace
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: period here. Michigan went nine to three last year, and
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: it was a legit bounce back from pretty rough twenty
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: twenty four, better than a lot of people expected, giving
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: the Bryce Underwood was a true freshman running the show.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: They expected Mikey Keen to be able to come in
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: and give him some time to get acclimated, and Keen
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: got hurt. So it was the Underwood show all season,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: and he flashed right like you saw the talent, but
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: the inconsistency was there and very noticeable. Michigan was good
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: last year, but man, they won some close games and
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: they got kind of kind of whipped in some other ones.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: The question for twenty twenty six is whether they can
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: be great and whether Whittingham can pull it all together
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: fast enough to beat a schedule that's frankly unforgiving. Right
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Like with Whittingham, this should be smash my football with
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: some spread concepts layered in physical run first, aggressive on defense.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: That's been the identity. And with Whittingham and of course
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: this new offensive coordinator who brought from Utah with him,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: Jason Beck, and then of course your defensive coordinator j
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Hill coming over from BYU, the identity is not going
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: to go anywhere, like I think, it's just getting upgraded.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: I think this is the I expect them to look
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: like a Michigan football team as far as returning production
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: the roster, and this is what they're working with coming
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty six. Offensively, they're loaded. You have
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: four offensive line starters returning. It might just be three, actually,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: I think, well, give or take right a lot of
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: snaps returning. We'll say that you had Jake Warner and
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Andrew Babolola back there, Bryce Underwood back at quarterback. Jordan
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: Marshall returns at running back. He went for over nine
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: hundred yards and ten touchdowns last season. Andrew marsh is
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: back at receiver. He put up six hundred and fifty
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: one yards and four scores last year. That's a legit
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: core and it may be the most experienced offensive group
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: in the Big Ten. And then they went and upgraded
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: it right. Michigan brought in JJ Buchanan from Utah, brought
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: in Jamie French from Texas at wider sea. Gives Underwood
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: more weapons than he ever had in year one. Trey
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Pierce Inoetta are back at defensive tackle. The secondary returns
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Jayre Hill, Zeke Berry. Now is Zeke Berry back or not?
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: I put him back his back? Hey, you guys tell
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: me in the comments. And then Rod Moore supposed to
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: be back. Now will he be healthy? We'll see. But
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: they did add Smith Snowden from Utah and Chris Bracy
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: from Memphis to round it out like that. The back four,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: the secondary is genuinely talented. Now the part of that,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: you know, if I'm a Michigan fan, this part would
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: keep me up at night. The front seven on defense
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: is basically starting over. Major turnover at defensive line, significant
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: losses at linebacker, Multiple starting edge players are gone. Like
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: that's a This is a full rebuild on offense. I
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: forgot to mention Justice Hayines that running back also transferred
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: out to Georgia Tech, and that matters less now that
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: Marshall showed up the way he did. But it's worth
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: noting Jim Harding Whittingham brought him in his offensive line coach.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: He is regarded as one of the best, the best
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: offensive line coaches in the country. That room should be
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: better than last year, even while being largely the same personnel,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: just because of the coaching upgrade, and that matters as
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: far as this offense is concerned. Let's talk strengths of
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: the team. Michigan's got three things going for him. I think,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: in a real way. Start with the receiver room. Marsh Buchanan,
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: French and Savion Hyder. That's depth. That's multiple guys who
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: can beat you in different ways. Michigan has not had
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: a receiver room like this in a while, and it's
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: not like the most elite in the conference. It's just
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: a step up, right, It's a step up from what
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: they've had. If Underwood takes that next step, the passing
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: game becomes genuinely dangerous. I will say it certainly didn't
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: look good in the spring game. Underwood didn't look great.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Now maybe that's because he's learning a new offense. Could
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: be any number of things. There's a lot of Michigan
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: p that are kind of out on it that think that,
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe Tommy Carr should be the dude, and
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: maybe by the end of the season. I think you've
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: got so much invested in this quarterback that you got
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: to give Underwood every opportunity to do this. I mean,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: he's obviously talented, and I think in Jason Becks offense,
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: whether you pass or not, as long as the offensive
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: line can do things, then you should be able to
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: run on a lot of teams. But you know, if
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: he passes the ball that way, you can't load the
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: box on Jordan Marshall. When you got that many weapons
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: on the outside, then that's gonna be good. I already
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: brought up the offensive line situation. Harding coaching them up.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: You got some real snaps back there. The run game
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: is already functional last year, continuity up front, and a
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: coach of Harding's caliber developing those guys, it could be
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: a pretty dominant unit. A dominant offensive line is how
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: you control games and how you project a young quarterback
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: from beating himself and getting the team beat on bad days.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: The secondary, I think is a strength gyre Hill Rod
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Moore as a veteran safety. Plus, of course you're bringing
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: in Snowden embracy, that's a pretty legit thing. And Jay
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: Hill walking into that situation where the back end of
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: his defense is ready to play, that's awesome because his
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: scheme is blitz heavy, very aggressive. Uh. It is designed
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: to create chaos and he's got the person on the
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: secondary to be able to execute it. Now, as far
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: as weaknesses go, there are concerns here. Obviously the front
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: seven situation. We can't gloss over that. Michigan returns very
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: little proven production upfront on defense against physical, big ten
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: rushing attacks, and there are several on this schedule. Inexperienced
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: defensive line is gonna get tested early and often. If
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Jay Hill cannot manufacture pressure with these young guys, opposing
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: offenses are gonna chew up clock and field position basically
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: all season. Then there's Underwood, which could be a weakness.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, the talent is real, right, I mean he
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: was the number one recruit in the country. What was it,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: a twelve million dollar multi year contract, But boy, that
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: spring game who it was the same things that we
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: saw in twenty twenty five. Mechanical issues pocket awareness concerns
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: like processing speed wasn't great, Like year two, quarterbacks do
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: take jumps all the time, but sometimes they don't. Michigan's ceiling,
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: I think, is directly tied to which version of Underwood
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: actually shows up in September. The coaching transition is another weakness, right,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: even if you don't really want to talk about it.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: It's an entirely new staff that's installing new systems on
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: both sides of the ball simultaneously. Jason Beck implementing a
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: new offensive system. He's been really successful at doing that
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: very quickly wherever he goes. Did really well under Broco
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: winning Hall at New Mexico, did really well under Whittingham
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: last season. I think he's good at it. I think
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: he's really good at it. Jay Hill building up a
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: defense from scratch up front. That kind of institutional reset
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: is going to take some time, and Michigan schedule doesn't
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: exactly give them time, right, And this is where we
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: can go ahead and point to the schedule here, which
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: is right there. It's rutal. It could cost some wins
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: that don't really reflect how good this team actually is.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: You get a soft opening, you get four straight home
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: games to start the season. That's a gift that lets
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: the new staff kind of find its footing before things
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: get real. But they get really, really real, especially in
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: weeks two and week four. Oklahoma comes down Arbor early.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: That's a legitimate litmus test. Iowa coming in in week
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: four and we've been over Iowa. They are replacing a lot,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: but it is still a Kirk Farence team with a
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Phil Parker defense. Penn State visits in week seven. There's
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: a trip to Minnesota in there, and that's not exactly
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: a just to give me. Indiana comes in in week
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: eight right after Penn State, and then you've got a
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: road trip to Oregon in week eleven that is, I mean,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: obviously one of the toughest road environments in the country.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, two of your last three games are at
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: Oregon and at Ohio State, like just ridiculous. Five of
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: the projected top seven teams in the Big Ten are
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: on the schedule. So Michigan could be a legitimately improved
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: football team, noticeably better than last year, and still finished
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: with less wins than they did because of the gauntlet
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: that they're going through. The four games that I would
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: say are keys to the season that I'm watching the
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: most closely Oklahoma in week two because it tells you
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: immediately whether this offense has actually taken a step. I'll
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: go with Penn State in week seven. That's kind of
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: a season defining moment. Indiana at home in week eight.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Hoosias are a legit, real program. They
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: cannot be taken for granted, and you get them at home.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, I think towards the end, I
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: think that road game at Oregon, where road quarterbacks with
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: mechanical issues are certainly going to struggle in that environment.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: If Michigan comes out of the Oklahoma and Penn State
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: games with a split, they're probably in the And now
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: I think you probably gotta win both of those because
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: I am not expecting a win against Indiana. I'm not
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: expecting a win against Oregon. I'm not expecting a win
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: against Ohio State. You gotta win Oklahoma, you gotta win Iowa,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: you gotta win Penn State. And then at nine to three,
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: maybe this is still a twelve team. Yeah, it's still
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: a twelve team playoff. You know, if Underwood struggles in
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: those big moments early the season could start slipping before
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: really before the middle of October, before the end of October, like,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: it could be bad. It could certainly be bad. As
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: far as record, my projected wins is seven point eight nine.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty high on Michigan. I've got them rated pretty highly.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: I've got them favorites and nine games dogs in three
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: four toss up games. Their conference strength to schedule I've
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: got number four. Their national strength of schedule is number seven,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: pretty outrageous. The ceiling I think is ten and two.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Like it requires probably Underwood to make a genuine leap
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: in year two, not just marginal improvement. It requires the
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: defensive front seven to reload faster than most programs can
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: really expect, and you need both of those things to
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: break right simultaneously. It's possible, but it's not easy. The
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: floor I think is seven and five. If the offensive
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: transition stalls under the new staff, If Underwood regresses instead
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: of progresses, and that rebuilt front seven gets eaten alive
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: by a physical Big ten, well physical Big ten offenses,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: then you're watching a team with first round talent at
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: quarterback lose games that they shouldn't lose. And that's a
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: bad feeling for a fan base that's already kind of
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: been through a lot these past few years. Most likely record,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna land at eight and four when total is
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: eight and a half, the over is plus one thirty eight,
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: the under is minus one fifty. The juice on the
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: under should tell you something like the market does not
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: think Michigan is clearing nine wins with the schedule, and
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: I'm on the same side. I lean under eight and
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: four fields right, especially with that brutal of a schedule.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Even a talented team is going to drop some of
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: these games. But I just I'm not seeing it, and
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know that this is one of my favorite
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: bets because minus one fifty feels like a lot of juice.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: But I'm expecting eight wins this year, and i still
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: think this could be a better team than the team
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: that went nine and three last year. The record just
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: won't show it. What extra Winning Cures everything content and
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: a way to support the show directly head over to
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: buy me a coffee dot com slash Winning Cures and
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: become part of the community. Today, you want to talk
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: about a program that had one of the wildest offseasons
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: in college football, Let's go to Baton Rouge. Right. Brian
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: Kelly gets fired after a seven and six season, not
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: after he got fired in the middle of that thing,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: but the entire season felt like just a slow motion
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: disappointment from about week three forward, right, And LSU's answer
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: was to go and get Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: He just spent years turning Oxford into a really a powerhouse.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: Like this guy is now walking straight into Death Valley.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: He's got fifty nine newcomers, brand new quarterback, three brand
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: new quarterbacks, and a week one date with Clemson. Right,
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: no warm up, no Gras Sperry, just chaos from the jump,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: And honestly, I think that's pretty a brand for LSU.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Here's what you need to understand about the twenty twenty
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: five Tigers before we get into twenty six. The defense
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: was not the problem. Blake Baker's Blake Baker's unit kind
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: of held up there into the bargain. It was the
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: offense that sank this season. Inconsistent, inefficient, Ultimately the reason
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: that Brian Kelly is no longer coaching at LSU or
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: anywhere right now. Lane Kiffin's entire mandate is to fix
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: that side of the ball. He brought Charlie Weiss with him,
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: as offensive coordinator to help him do it. The identity
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: that they're building is fast paced, quarterback centric spread attack
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: with you know, more balance in the run game than
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: LSU has run in recent years. On defense, they want
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: to be aggressive. They've got an experienced coordinator staying in place.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: They've got enough portal talent to feel two depth charts.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: I think this is one of the most fascinating boom
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: er Bus teams in the entire country in twenty twenty six.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: And you know, explain exactly why. Let's let's talk about
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: the production, the returning production, the roster, if you will.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: We'll start with what stayed, because I think that matters.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: On offense. Eighty seven percent of the offensive line snaps return.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: I think that's pretty significant. That's that's continuity up front
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: in a league where offensive line development is everything. Right,
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: Harlem Barry Caden Durham are both back at running back.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: That's your top two running or yeah, top two running backs,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: something a lot of SEC teams would kill for. I
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: think Tredez Green, who had thirty three catches and what
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: four hundred and thirty three yards missing my notes here,
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: and he had seven touchdowns at tight end last year.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: That's that's pretty awesome. That's pretty awesome. He's a legit
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: matchup problem and one of the more underrated players I
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: think in the SEC on events. Blake Baker is staying
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: on a quarterback at quarterback coordinator. Excuse me. It is
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: maybe the single most underrated decision that LSU made this
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: offseason that was working. Obviously Baker had some head coaching opportunities,
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: but LSU knew, like, you don't blow up something that's working.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: Linebacker with Weeks is back, they keep DJ Pickett. It's
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: a huge situation there, so I think they kept Spears,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: they kept Woodland. I mean, that's good stuff. Now, as
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: far as the additions go on offense, Sam Levitt comes
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: in from Arizona State at quarterback. A lot of money
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: spent there, proven production, playoff experience, genuine mobility that opens
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: the run game as long as he's healthy. Jordan Seaton
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: transfers in from Colorado to upgradet the offensive line ceiling
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: even further. The receiver room got rebuilt. Eugene Wilson the
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: third from Florida, Jace Brown, Winston Watkins, and Trey Brown.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: There pass rusher Uman Meellen of course comes in Princeville.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: Uman Meellen comes in from Ole Miss. He is an
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: immediate impact player on the defensive front. You got t J.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: Dudley at linebacker, TYD Binfield at safety, you got Green
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: at defensive tackle, and of course Edward's Aron Kocho. He
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: has joined the staff to help with defensive line and recruiting.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: What left does hurt on paper? Right? Garrett us Myrick quarterback.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: Not that he was great last year at all, but
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: he was injured basically the whole season. Him being gone
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: I don't think is great because he was there through everything.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: Harold Perkins at linebacker, him being gone, he never quite
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: lived up to what he was as a freshman, but
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: obviously a lot of experience there. Gone. The wide receivers
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: Aaron Anderson, Barryon Brown, Zavian Tom They're all gone. Patrick
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: Payton off the edge is gone. The cornerback Delaney, he's
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: off to the NFL. Like these are legit losses, but
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: the depth of what came in I think makes this
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: list of a teardown and more of a pivot, right,
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: And that's what you expect with Lange Kiffin teams. As
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: far as strengths go. For this team, I've got three
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: of them. First quarterback and skill position combination is really exciting.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Sam Levitt is not walking into a bad situation. He's
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: got a rebuilt but deep receiver room, He's got two
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: capable running backs. He's got Tredees Green at tight end,
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: who defenses cannot figure out. I would. I don't think
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: Levitt's mobility adds a dimension that LSU's offense has not
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: had in years. Kiffin's system is built for exactly this
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: kind of quarterback, and so long as the chemistry develops,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: the offense can be a problem for anybody in the sec. Second,
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: the offensive line eighty seven percent snaps returning plus Jordan
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: Seaton from Colorado, that's a real upgrade. It might it
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: might be the most stable thing on the entire roster
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: in Keivin's offense. A dominant offensive line does not just
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: protect the quarterback. It creates that whole run game identity
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: that makes everything else work. And I think LSU finally
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: has the pieces up front to really establish that third.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: Blake Baker's defense has continuity, and some of that coming
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: in with a coordinator is worth more than people I
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: think give it credit for. He's got experienced linebackers, a
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: loaded secondary. Now he's got Euman Miellen off the edge,
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: who is one of the better pass rushers in the
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: SEC last season that will miss. That is a unit
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: that should be able to keep LSU competitive in games
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: where the offense is still kind of finding its footing early.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: As far as weaknesses go, we got to slow some
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: stuff down because you got fifty nine newcomers. Forty three
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: of them are transfers, Like fifty nine new faces trying
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: to learn a brand new offensive system, and for a
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: lot of them it's a brand new defensive system as well.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: And you're playing in the SEC and you get Clemson
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: and Ole Miss and A and M in three or
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: first four games like that's the schedule ain't exactly easy.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: And chemistry is built obviously through reps, through adversity, all
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. And LSU was assembling basically an
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: all star team and asking him to play like a
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: cohesive program right out of the gate like that takes
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: longer than one off season most of the time. The
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: other weakness, the other red flag here is Sam Levitt's health.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: He's coming off a foot injury. It's a Liz Frank situation.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: Durability is a concern here, Liz Frank. Injuries are not minor.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Those things kind of linger. They can affect mobility, which
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: is central to what Levitt does. If he miss his time,
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: LSU doesn't have a proven quarterback behind him, the season
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: can get complicated very quickly, I think. And then, of course,
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: the year one chemistry issue compounds everything else, new head coach,
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: new quarterback, receiver, corps, new offensive system, new OC, all
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: of it simultaneously. Even when the talent is there and
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: it is in droves, the combination of variables produces I
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: think some growing pains. The question is whether those growing
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: pains happen in October, during a manageable stretch, or in
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: September when the schedule is already testing you. And now's
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: a good time to talk about the schedule, right. The
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: thing about the schedule that makes the whole situation even
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: more high wire is you don't get a soft landing,
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: you don't get some warm up game. You get Week
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: one Clemson. Now, do I think Clemson is nearly as talented?
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Do I think they have as good of a coaching
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: staff as ell as? You know? That's why I've got
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: LSU favored by ten point three one. But that is
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: a legit program with legit coaching with a guy that
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: has won two national championships. And you know, if you're
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: running out a brand new quarterback, brand new system, forty
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: three transfer players like all that kind of stuff, it's
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: it's going to be interesting. And I think it sets
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: the tone for everything that follows. Week three at ole Miss.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: I mean you want to talk about it emotional, like
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Lane Kivin going back to Oxford to face the program
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: that he just left and they put it at night
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: for TV. Yikes. Ole Miss is going to be fired up.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: I mean that crowd is going to be electric, and
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: Kiffen will absolutely relish the moment like you know he will.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: He's going to talk a lot that week. Week four,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: after that game, I mean, you want to talk about
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: an emotional game. Then you kind of come back and
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: you face Texas, A and M. And now in the
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: middle of all that you got McNee State, Kentucky, Mississippi
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: State and at Auburn, and then you get a bye
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: week before Alabama, Like Alabama is your sec measuring stick game,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: Like A and M in Alabama and Ole Miss, that's
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: your measuring stick games before you get to deal with
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: Texas and Tennessee towards the end of the season. It's
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: a tough schedule. If the team comes out of September
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: with momentum, levit's healthy, the offense is clicking. The talent
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: I think is absolutely good enough to compete for not
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: only a playoff spot, but maybe an SEC championship. The
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: SEC schedule in the back half is survivable if you've
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: built that chemistry in the front. If you still bre
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: early and then you don't really have a margin for
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: air in conference play anymore, and you're looking at seven
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: or eight win season, that feels a lot like last year.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: And I don't think anybody feels like that's what they
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: paid for with Lane Kiffin bringing in a forty more
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: million dollar roster and paying one hundred and whatever eleventy
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: billion dollars it was to bring in Kiffen and his
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: coaching staff. As far as the ceiling floor, et cetera,
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: my projected wins as far as win percentages go, is eight.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: I think the ceiling is legitimately eleven and one like
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: if Sam Levitt stays healthy, the offensive line dominates the
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: way that the personnel suggests that it should and if
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: Kiffin's offense hits even what seventy percent of its potential quickly, Like,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: I think the team can beat anybody on the schedule
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: because the talent is that good. The floor, however, is
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: seven and five. I think that makes sense. That's also
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: really real, Like if Levitt misses time with that foot,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: if the chemistry issues dragging October, I mean, this is
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: a team that you lose the close ones in sec
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: play because they don't have the cohesion yet to make
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: the right play in the fourth quarter. Then yeah, you
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: could easily see this team lose at Ole Miss to
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M maybe at Auburn Alabama Texas at
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: Tennessee in November. Yeah. Absolutely, The most likely outcome to
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: me is nine and three win total sits at eight
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: and a half. Over is minus one oh five, the
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: under is at minus one ten. I'm gonna lean over.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: Nine to three feels right for a team that is
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: this talented, even accounting for all the transition. Right, the
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: over is basically a bet that Lang Kiffin is a
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: good football coach. And I think that's a bet that
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty comfortable making. Uh, you look at you know,
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: I've got them favorites in eight games. I've got them
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: a dog in for six of those are toss ups
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: like Alabama, Texas, Tennessee and A and M. I've got
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: field goal games like it's coin flip. Basically, I've got them.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: I've got them a five point six point dog at
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: ole Miss. Yeah, everything else, I mean they should be
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: able to handle basically everything else as far as the
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: final take goes. I mean, lu, this is the kind
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: of team that makes college football worth watching. Right, maximum talent,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: a ton of chaos, a lot of stakes. Week one,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Kiffen is appointment television, right, legitimate offensive mind. Baker's defense
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: is already built and he's good at it, and the
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: roster has more talent than the seven and six record
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: from last season ever suggested. But I do think that
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: this is an experiment, Right, you got fifty nine new
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: faces coming in, and you got to mold them to
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: become really almost a championship football team right out of
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: the gate. So long as they get that home win
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: over Clemson in week one and you get a little
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: more Kim Street built up in week two, that game
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: against Ole Miss is going to be serious in week three,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: and I think it sets the tone for almost the
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: entire season. Uh, you gotta at least split Ole miss
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: and A and M in weeks three and four and
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: then we'll see if this is a playoff team or not.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: Hit that subscribe button and make sure to like the video.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: And if you're listening to the podcast, of course, make
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: sure and visit Winning Cures Everything on YouTube at YouTube
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: dot com slash Winning Cures Everything, so you don't miss
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: any of our college football coverage this season. We're five
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: years in and that is where Lincoln Riley is at
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: at USC and heading into twenty twenty six, the program
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: looks more like what everybody imagined it would be when
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: he left Oklahoma. I think right the recruiting is hitting
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: the rosters really deep. The offensive line, which it's been
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: a weakness for stretches on this run, that's finally a strength.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: And for the first time since Riley got to Los Angeles,
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: the defense looks like it might actually be able to
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: keep up with the offense. Now, granted, that's going into
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: a season where you're changing defensive coordinators and you lost
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: some key pieces, but we'll talk about that here in
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: a minute. The twenty twenty five season was encouraging right
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: nine and four, undefeated at home in Big Ten play.
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: Several of those losses were competitive to the end, right
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: Oregon Notre Dame. Both of those came down to the wire,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: but there was also the Illinois loss, a swing game
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: that kind of knocked him out of the playoff picture.
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: That felt very on brand for Riley. Teams that have
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: struggled to close out games against opponents that they probably
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: should beat. That's the pattern that has to break in
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. So what is this USC team? Right?
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: Fast paced, quarterback centric. It's a passing attack and that's
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: never changed and probably never will under Lincoln Riley. The
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six version adds something, right, You've got a
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: real running game, an offensive line that returns off five starters,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: and you've got a defense under Gary Patterson that is
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: that has real teeth. Right, it's the most complete roster
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: that Riley has put on the field since he arrived
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: in LA and it might be the team that finally
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: gets USC back into the playoff conversation for real. This time.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: Problem might be the schedule. We're gonna talk about that,
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: but first let's talk about the returning production. Fifteen starters
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: returning you've got nine on offense, you've got eight on defense.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: I mean in a transfer portal era where continuity is
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: genuinely rare, that number is exceptional. Right. You start with
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Jade Mayeva threw for over thirty seven hundred yards last season.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: He finished second nationally in QBR at eighty nine point nine.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: He's returning the whole offensive lines back, including your tackles.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: Elijah Page and justinun Tuanu. Correct me in the comments.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: Let me know how to pronounce that Wayman Jordan and
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: King Miller both back in the backfield. You got a
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: tandem that averaged six point three yards per carry last season.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: That changes what defenses have to prepare or prepare for
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: against this offense. On defense, Braylan Shelby returns at end.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Ibasiri again, correct me in the comments at tackle, Christian
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: Pierce at linebacker, Marcellus Williams at corner. I mean, you've
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: got real returning production on that side of the ball,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: and they needed it. Right. The portal additions are targeted
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: rather than massive, which is a nice change. Terrell Anderson
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: comes in from Ency State at receiver. Zehiah Fisher from
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: Penn State. He adds to the defensive line, and John
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: Tais Williams gives them another corner as well. Obviously the
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: losses matter. Mackay Lemon he won the bullet Nikoff last
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: year and he had something to do with the running
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: game or the start of the returning game as well,
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: So you know that's a huge thing. Best receiver in
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: college football being gone, that obviously stinks. Chakobe Lane left
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: as well. He was really good All American safety. Bishop
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: Fitzgerald is gone. The tight end at Lake MC retransferred out.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: You know, there's a few things here and there. And
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: then obviously defensively, Danton Lynn departed. He joined Matt Campbell's
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: staff at his alma mater, Penn State, and that brings
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: in Gary Patterson as the new defensive coordinator. Patterson, that's
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: a known commodity, I think former TCU head coach. He
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: was a defensive analyst for sark Over at Texas for
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit. But he's inheriting a unit I think
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: you could say midfield that's got real you know, it's
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: got turnover in the secondary. But this is a talented,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: talented roster. The foundation of this roster is elite. The
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: holes are specific but significant and how quickly Usc Filsom
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: is going to define the season. Four things that are well,
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: let's talk strengths, right, let's talk strengths we've got. We've
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: got some things here that are working in USC's favor.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: First is my ava back with the fully intact offensive line.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: That's a big dual second nationally, and qbr is not
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: a fluke. He has accuracy, he has arm talent. I
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: mean that he gets to operate in an environment where
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: his strengths are maximized and his development can continue without
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: an interruption. The continuity up front is incredibly valuable, and
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: I think Lincoln Riley is going to build the entire
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: offense around protecting that right. Second, Jordan and Miller as
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: a tandem at running back that is underrated nationally six
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: point three yards per carry average. I mean that math
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: is legit. Every defense wants to pin their ears back
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: and attack my EVA, but you can't just load up
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: and stop the pass when those two are capable of
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: gashing you on the ground. Riley's offense with a legitimate
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: run game is a different animal than Riley's offense without
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: one third strength. I've got the defensive front, They're deeper
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: and more talented than at any point in this USC
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: run with Riley Patterson comes in with a pretty clear mandate.
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Get physical and get after the quarterback and stop making
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: the offense do all the heavy lifting. Fisher coming in
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: from Penn State, which is such a weird swap, right
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: because Danton Lynn going to Penn State and then Fisher
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: coming to USC. That's either here nor there. It gives
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: them another body on the edge, and the returning pieces
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: give Patterson something real to work with from day one.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: Fourth strength is just the overall roster depth. I mean,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: the recruiting pipeline is finally producing depth at a ton
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: of different positions. Linebacker, receiver, offensive line, that defensive front
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: as well. USC is not one injury away from crisis
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: at multiple positions, and that matters over a big ten schedule,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: right because I mean this schedule is it's up there.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: It's pretty difficult as far as weaknesses go. There are
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: some concerns here. Obviously replacing mackay Lemon that's not a
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: small ask. He won the damn Belitnikoff, right, the best
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: receiver in the country. Anderson coming in from Ency State
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: and the other newcomers, they may be talented, but there
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: is not a There's not a direct replacement for a
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: player of Leomon's caliber, and I have his numbers will
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: be affected until somebody steps up and demand's attention from
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: the opposing secondaries. The development has to happen fast in
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: a big ten where defenses are going to be game
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: planning specifically to take away the passing game. But again,
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: that's where the running game comes in the secondary situation. Also,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: I would call it a concern losing Fitzgerald replacing him
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: with you know, new pieces who have to build chemistry
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: on the fly. That's the kind of situation that shows
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: up as late game breakdown kind of stuff in a
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: close game. I think Patterson's scheme is going to help,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: but there's not a substitute for experienced players who tend
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: to know each other's tendencies. Right. The big elephant in
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: the room is big game consistency. Like USC has been
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: right up there against elite opponents under Lincoln Riley, and
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: they found ways to lose Oregon Notre Dame Illinois last year.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: Until that pattern breaks with an actual signature win against
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: a time opponent, it kind of hangs over the program.
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: Twenty six is the year that either it gets resolved
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: or becomes really kind of the defining narrative of Riley's
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: tenure in Los Angeles. I think that's a pretty big deal.
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: Here's a good spot for us to talk about the schedule, right,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: schedule sets up USC beautifully to start the year week
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: zero opener against San Jose State. That leaves them with
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: two buys in the middle of the season. So that's good.
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: But you get San Jose State, then you've got Fresno
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: State at home. Then you've got Louisiana at home. I mean,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: that's a layup non conference slate, should produce a four
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: to oh start before Big ten play even begins. Then
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: you have your first road game and that is at
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: Rutgers in week three. That's a big time spot, right,
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: So you got two buys built into the calendar. Gives
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: the staff some extra prep time for the games that matter.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: The schedule gets real pretty fast. Oregon comes into the
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: Coliseum in week four, but that is after a trip
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: all the way out east to Rutgers. Washington at home
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: in week five, the week after the Oregon game at
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: Penn State in week six, the week after Oregon and Washington, Like,
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: that's insane. Then you have a bye week before Wisconsin.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: You play Wisconsin on the road, but then you've got
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: Ohio State the next week week before by in week nine,
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: you want to talk about a stretch Oregon, Washington, Penn
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: State bye week at Wisconsin, and then Ohio State at home.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: I mean that is a stretch against teams that could
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: all realistically beat you, and all could potentially be in
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: the top ten. That's Sands, maybe Wisconsin there getting Oregon
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: in Ohio State at home, that is a huge advantage.
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: Those are games that USC can and eh, well just
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: say that they can win those games. I'm not gonna
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: say they should win those games, but you probably need
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: to win at least one of those. Right, Penn State
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: on the road. Season could get complicated there because when
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: you're going there to face Danton Lynn, who obviously knows
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: Riley's scheme. Right, the four games that I'm circling is
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: the key games here, Oregon at home, because when there
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: immediately puts USC in a CFP conversation, settles the question
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: of whether Riley can be the lead opponents. Right Washington
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: at home in week five, I think that's a key
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: game because the Huskies are dangerous that's a trap game
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: after the Oregon game, and I think the Oregon game
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: could be a pretty emotional game. I think I'll mark
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: Penn State as a key game as well. I mean,
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: that's three games in a row that I think are
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: key games for the season. You got to win at
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: least one of those, and probably you probably need two
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: of them. You probably need to get Washington and Penn
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: State right. Road environments are where, especially out in the
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: East Coast, that's where Riley teams have historically struggled to close.
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: You do get Ohio State at home. I mean, that
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: might be thet game with the Colosseum in years. If
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: USC goes like three and one in those four games,
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: I mean they're gonna be in the playoffs at that point.
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: If they go one in three, then we're having a
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: totally different conversation in November. The ceiling for this team
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: I think is eleven and one. If IVI takes another
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: step forward, cuts down some of the turnover, somebody in
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: that receiving room emerges as like a genuine number one
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: threat to replace what Lemen was doing, and Gary Patterson
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: immediately elevates the defense. This team can beat Oregon Ohio State, etc.
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: And go to the Big Ten championship. The talent that
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: supports it. The talent is there, But let's talk about
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: the floor. The floor I think I think is eight
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: and four. And that's even if the receiver production drops
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: significantly without Lemon, you know, the secondary takes a step backward,
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: like USC would be right back in that frustrating zone
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: where they're beating most of the people they should beat,
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: losing the ones that define the season. Right, eight and
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: four with this roster, I think would feel like a failure.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: Most likely record for me is nine and three. When
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: total sits at eight and a half, the over is
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: plus one fifteen, the under is minus one fifteen. Those
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: are the best odds. By the way, it's a different books.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean over that eight and a half at
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: plus one fifteen. Nine and three feels right for a
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: team that has this much experience, and the plus one
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: fifteen gives you value on a roster that has a
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: higher floor than any USC team in a recent memory.
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's I feel good about that bet. I've
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: got them a favorite in eight games, I've got them
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: a dog in four, But there's a there's four toss
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: ups there. There's a toss up against Washington, there's a
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: toss up against Penn State, a toss up against Oregon,
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: toss up against Indiana. I've got them almost a double
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: digit dog to Ohio State. Obviously that can flip as well.
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: But you know, my projected wins are eight point twenty six.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: The conference strength to schedule is number three in the
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: Big Ten. That's pretty difficult. And the national strength to schedule,
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: I've got them at number four, So I think they're
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: gonna go nine to three, and at nine and three
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: against this schedule, you're gonna have some good enough wins
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: that they will at least be in the playoff conversation.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: Final take here, USC has finally built something in LA
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: that looks like a legit program, not a collection of
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: portal ads and a few five star recruits who haven't
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: developed right. The offensive line, continuity, Miava's growth, that running game,
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: that they've got, Patterson's mandate on defense. This feels different
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: to me from the past forty seasons, but I think
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: Lincoln Riley still has something to prove in the big moments,
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: and something to prove on the East coast as well.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: Like because there's several games where they have to go
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: out to the East Coast, and that's that's a big deal.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: The schedule gives plenty of opportunity. I mean, these are
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: resume builders that are right there waiting. It's the deepest
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: and most complete USC roster of the Lincoln Riley era,
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: and the Trojans finally have the trenches, the experience, et cetera.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: The only issue is the schedule is so difficult. But
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: I think he needs to make a playoff run this season.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: I'm curious to see if they can do it. Shirts, hoodies, hats,
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• 54:40
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• 54:52
  Speaker 1: The Old Miss Rebels are number eleven Power rated team
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: when thirteen and two last year, first college football playoff
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: appearance school history. You get a blowout win over TWU Lane,
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: You get a sugar Bowl win over Georgia and one
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: game one drive away from the national championship, lost thirty
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: one to twenty seven to Miami and the Fiesta Bowl. Ole.
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: Miss finished third in the final AP poll, and Lane
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: Kiffn left Oxford having built something that the program had
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: never seen before, and they continued even after he left. Right,
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: So he's off to LSU. Now you got Pete Golding,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: the former defensive coordinator, a guy that has never been
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: a full season head coach at any level of college football.
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: He steps into maybe one of the hotter seats in
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: the SEC, not because the situation is bad, but because
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: the expectations are really through the roof after what just happened,
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: and now he has to figure out how to keep
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: it going without the guy that actually built it. Now
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: we can get into who actually built it and all
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: that kind of stuff, but Lang Keivin had a lot
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: to do with that, right That is the tension at
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: the center of the twenty twenty six on Miss season.
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: The talent is certainly there. Trinida channelis Kwan Lacy might
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: be the best quarterback running back combination in college football.
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: The front seven is loaded, the receiver room lost over
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: three thousand yards of production. Both starting offensive tackles are gone.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: The offensive coordinator has changed. Charlie West Junior is down
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: at LSU. Now John David Baker, who has two seasons
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: of OC experience at East Carolina. He is the new OC.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: The defensive coordinator is Patrick Tony, who comes in from
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: Florida and the Arizona Cardinals, having spent some time at
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: those places. It's a program built for contention, that is
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: trying to survive a coaching transition. While the sec I mean,
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: the schedule shows absolutely no mercy. Right, fast paced, dual
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: threat quarterback offense, balanced run pass attack. It's an aggressive
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: front seven defense. The identity is intact. The question is
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: who's driving it. What does it look like? Right, Let's
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: talk about returning production Ole Miss. Here's what they get
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: to build around. And you got two names that make
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: every defensive coordinator in the country uncomfortable. That is Chamberliss.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: Of course, at quarterback, finished eighth in Heisman voting last season.
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: He was the engine behind the third team win CFP run.
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: He's back Kiwan Lacey ran for over fifteen hundred yards
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: and twenty four touchdowns twenty four He's back two those
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: two players alone give all Miss one of the highest
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: offensive ceilings of any team in the country. You can't
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: scheme away both of them, and when Chambliss has time,
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: he creates players that that shouldn't exist, right Like, some
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: of these players are absolutely ridiculous, but he finds a
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: way to do it. On defense, the front seven, they
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: keep Will Eccles, who had eleven and a half tackles
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: for loss five sacks last season. Cam Franklin adds another
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: nine tackles for loss in five sacks. Perkins enters the
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: season as one of the most productive linebackers in the SEC.
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: I mean we're talking legit, experienced, proven defensive front and
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: it stays intact heading into twenty twenty six. The portal
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: editions you got Daryl Gill Junior and John Tay Cook
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: from Syracuse. Horatio Fields comes in from Auburn that gives
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: Chambliss some new options. None of them come with the
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: kind of proven SEC production that walked out the door,
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: but still as far as the secondary goes, Florida State's
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: Edwin Joseph, Auburn's Jalen Crawford, they helped bolster that secondary.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: Mackay Fraser from Michigan State adds up behind Lacey. But
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: then you got losses, right, and they're pretty significant. Prince
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: will you mon Miellen one of the best pass rushers
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: in the conference. He's gone to LSU, and that's gonna
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: make that Week three matchup even more interesting. Not that
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: it wasn't already gonna be with Kiffen coming back to Oxford,
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: but still, the shift between players and whatnot, that's it
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: is what it is. The top three receivers, as I mentioned,
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: are gone, both starting offensive tackles transferred out and John
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: David Baker stepping into Charlie Weiss's shoes. That's that. And
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: the new defensive coordinator. I mean, it's a lot. It's
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: a lot of new people that are making a lot
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: of important decision for a team that should theoretically have
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: national championship aspirations built on the roster. Let's start with
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: what nobody can take away from Ole Miss, because I mean,
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: it's genuinely special. We're talking some strength here, Chandlers and
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: Lacey is that's the biggest strength on the entire team.
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: Dual threat quarterback elevates the offense even when the protection
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: breaks down. When the pocket collapses he doesn't panic, he creates.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: It's not a coachable skill. Either you got it or
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: you don't. Lacey, of course, over fifteen hundred yards a
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: bunch of touchdowns behind an offensive line that's kind of rebuilt.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: That means if the line holds it even maybe what
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: sixty seventy percent of what it was, Lacy should still
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: be able to get some production there. That's a baseline
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: that ol Miss has that most programs in the country
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: are not even close to. The second strength I think
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: is the front seven. Eckles and Franklin both proven, you know,
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: proven producers defensive end, Perkins linebacker, genuine star. Defensive line
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: depth reportedly from everything that I'm reading has improved, and
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: even with you Mon Miellen gone, Like this group has
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: enough returning talent to cause problems for pretty much every
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: offense on the schedule Patrick Tony inherits a unit with
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: a legitimate foundation to build on. And the third is
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: just the overall talent level of the roster, like this
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: is a good, legit national title contending roster. We'll call
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: it a playoff contending roster, like it's a program. They
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: went thirteen to two and finished third in the AP
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: pole like you don't see talent just evaporate from that. Right,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: the portal additions may not be household names yet, but
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: Golding certainly has the pieces to compete. I think the
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: ceiling on this team is legitimately elite. Right as far
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: as weaknesses, obviously there are things here that you don't
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: like to see. The offensive tackle situation one that could
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: be an issue. Both starter's gone in the SEC where
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: defensive lines are kind of to destroy quarterbacks and running games.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: Not having your tackles, that's a position group you can't
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: afford to rebuild on the fly. Right, Hopefully the new
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: starters jump in and whatnot. If they struggle, that's going
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: to be Every part of this offense gets harder if
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: they struggle. I think that's the easiest way to put it,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: and that's a real possibility. Because you've got limited proven
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: experience here. Chamdliss would take more hits, Lacy sees more
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: negative plays. The whole thing gets more stressful than it
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: needs to be. The receiver situation layer's right on top
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: of that, because you know guil Cook and Fields are
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: coming in with upside, but none of them have proven
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: they can be number one targets. In the SEC. Chamdlers
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: can create plays, but at some point you need somebody
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: out there that can catch it and somebody that can
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: demand could double coverage. I think that player has not
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: been announced on the roster. And then I think the
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: other weakness might be Pete Golding. And I'm not saying
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: that he can't do this right, I'm saying that nobody
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: knows if he can do this because he's never done
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: it before. Now, obviously, like first time head coaches in
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: the SEC that have championship level expectations, that's one of
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: the hardest jobs in the entire sport to do. But
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: obviously he's already got a little bit of experience because
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: he got to coach against some role who is going
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: to coach against again this year. He's already coached against
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Kirby Smart, who he gets to coach again or against
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: again this season. So like he's got some experience. He
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: was able to do some good things in the playoff. Granted,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: it's a little more different when you've had an offseason whatnot.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: John David Baker coming into OC, He's got two years
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: of experience running an offense at East Carolina. He did
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: have some experience at Old Miss as well, like if
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: the growing pains happen in September, the schedule doesn't give
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: ole Miss a lot of time to really catch up.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: I think, I mean you. You look at the schedule,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: like Louisville to open the season and then LSU and
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: Week three home against Florida and week four, I could
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: have sworn I fixed that. Yeah, this thing is not right.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: My schedule thang is incorrect. I've got ole Miss favored
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: against LSU because they are at home, so I have
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: them favorites. In boy, this old graphic is goofed up,
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: absolutely goofed up. But we'll we'll get that fixed. It'll
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: be okay. Let's talk about the schedule. Let's let's do that.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: We open. Ole Miss opens against Louisville in a neutral
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: site game in Nashville. I've got them over a five
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: point favorite there, legitimate test right out of the gate.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: I think that's a huge deal. It's not a song flanding.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: I do still think they are significantly more talented. Week three,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: LSU comes to Oxford. That's a huge deal. I think
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: I got that thing. I think I typed it in wrong.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: All right, LSU comes to Oxford. Uh, huge advantage over
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: Kiffen in the bunch because I mean, you want to
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: talk about a raucous crowd. That's a night game, that's
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: a huge thing involved in haming Way Stadium, Like it's
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be insane, Like it's gonna be electric, and
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: it's gonna tell you a lot about Pete Golding because
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: that is going to be as big a moment as
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: anything that has ever been seen in Oxford, Mississippi. Week
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: four against Florida at Florida. Week ten brings Georgia to Oxford. Yeah,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: I just goofed up on the on the away stuff
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: on this graphic. It's driving me nuts. Anyway, Anyway, Week
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: eleven is at Oklahoma. You got road trips to Florida
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: and ok home in the same season, plus a home
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: game against Georgia. It's a brutal stretch of games. You
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: got Texas in there as well, you got Auburn in
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: there as well. You've got Florida in there. I mean,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: and then there's losable games against Vandy and Missouri. You know,
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: it's a brutal stretch of games for a team that's
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: still kind of sorting out its identity. I think, like
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: we know what they want to be. I think developing
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: the chemistry and learning what it is that your head
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: coach expects out of you. I think that's going to
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: be interesting. The schedule offers no margin for error, and
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: that is a huge reality for All MISS in twenty
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: twenty six. Championship level talent, championship level schedule, first year
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: head coach, those things are going to collide repeatedly between
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: September and November. How they sort themselves out is going
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: to determine whether All Miss stays in the national conversation
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: or just becomes a cautionary tale about how fast things
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: can change in college football. And it will kind of
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: show the importance of having an experienced head coach in
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: there or not. If Pete Golden can come in and
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: navigate this thing and it's per fine, Okay, maybe some
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: of these schools can afford to pay a little less
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: for a head coach and just build up the talent,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: make sure you've got enough experience and all that. We'll see.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: The ceiling for this team is eleven and one. It
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: requires a specific set of things to be true simultaneously. Right,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: Chambliss has to play at basically a Heisman level, which
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: is pretty realistic because he showed it off last year.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: The offensive tackles have got to hold up well enough
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: to protect him and open some running lanes for Lacey.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: Golding has to prove almost immediately that the transition from
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: Kiffin is seamless rather than disruptive. And if all of
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: those three things, excuse me, three things happen and it's possible,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: then this team can beat anybody on the schedule. The
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: floor is seven and five, and I think it's closer
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: than almost fans want to admit. Like if the tackle
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: issues become a weekly headline, if the offensive transition creates
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: some real regression in production, you're looking at a team
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: that loses multiple games that they were favor to win.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: Like Chamberliss and Lacey keep the floor from being lower
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: than that, but seven and five would be an absolute
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: disaster for a team that won thirteen games last season.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: My most likely record here, I've got him at eight
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: and four. I've got him a favorite in eleven games.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: I've got them an underdog in one. The win total
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: sits at seven and a half. The over is minus
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: won fifty five, so a lot of Jews to go over,
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: and the under is plus one thirty five. I mean
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: it's a heavy, heavy price. I'm still going with the
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: over at eight and four is my projection given the
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: talent level, you know, the over and seven and a
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: half feels like the right call. Even at that juice.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: You're paying for the Chamberliss and Lacey Baseline, and I
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: think that Baseline's worth paying for. My projected wins is
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: eight point six to two. But and I'll put this
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: out on on the buy me a coffee if you
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: become a member over there, I'll give you what the
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: actual stuff is. Because I've got him favorite over Auburn.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: I've got him favorite over Missouri. I've got them favorites
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: in eleven games. I've got them a dog in one,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: but I've got seven toss ups, and the toss ups
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: are one possession games either way. The conference strength of
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: schedule is number twelve out of sixteen. It's relatively easy.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: National strength schedule is number twenty two. But there's land
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: mines all over this thing. Land Mines. Final take on
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: this team. This is a program at a genuine crossroads.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: Last year was the best season in school history, and
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: the man that engineered it didn't even stick around. Long
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: enough to finish it out. He's now down in Baton
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: Rouge and he's going to be coaching against them in
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: week three. Pete Golding has elite talent to work with,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: a proven quarterback defense that can compete with anybody in
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: the SEC. But the offensive line, the receiver room, that
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: coaching transition. What is the gas app there between what
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: this team could be and what it's likely to be
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: in September. It's a star power team. It's got national talent,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: national title talent at quarterback and running back. The question
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: isn't whether they got enough stars. It's whether Golding and
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: Hole that's the whole thing together in year one while
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: everybody else is trying to take it apart all right again,
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: If you have not already liked the video, subscribe to
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: Winning Cures Everything, whether you're on the podcast or YouTube.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: Of course, make sure to jump in the comments with
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: all of your thoughts on these teams and anything else
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: that's going on in the world college football. The politics
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: stuff is just wearing me out. I mean it absolutely is.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: If you watch the show, like you know, I just
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: love talking ball. I don't want to be talking about
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: Tennessee's chas Coleman not showing up for camp, or these
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: bills about five years to play five seasons or what like.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: Can we just get to August? Can we get there?
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: Can we talk about games? I'm in, I'm in. I
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: love talking about all the other stuff. But man, it
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: feels like there's so many places that are talking about that,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: and I don't know that my opinion on that kind
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: of stuff necessarily matters. I don't know that anybody his
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: opinion on this stuff necessarily matters. It's the whole thing's goofy.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: We can talk about twenty fourteen playoff if you want to.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: I'll probably talk some opinions in this like during the season,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: but I'll talk about like actual football opinions as opposed
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: to what Congress is going to do. Why are we
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: wanting Congress involved in college football? That just okay. With
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: that said, I'm gonna get out of here. We're not
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: We ain't doing this today. Till next time. Take care
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: of yourself, take care of each other. God bless college football,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: and hopefully all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: for listening to Winning Cures Everything, Subscribe, leave a review
• 1:11:05
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• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: out the web store,