Latest / Host Planet: Airbnb, Holiday Let, and Vacation Rental Insights / The Truth About Booking Windows, Rates & Demand
Transcript
- 0:00Demand didn't disappear, it compressed.
- 0:02So intent moved first, behavior followed and revenue showed at
- 0:07last. If you manage from revenue
- 0:10alone, you're always going to react, and if you manage from
- 0:14intent then you're going to shake outcome to manage run
- 0:18intent and shape your outcome for 2026.
- 0:21How much should you be charging for your short term rental?
- 0:25What should your minimum stay strategy look like and what is
- 0:28the data telling us about 2026? Zach Alley from Launch Base has
- 0:33been crunching the numbers and is here to answer all these
- 0:36questions and more on today's House Planet podcast.
- 0:44Zach, thank you for joining us on the Host Planet podcast.
- 0:47Length of stay dropped just about everywhere for short term
- 0:52rental operators in 2025. How should property managers
- 0:56prepare for this in 2026? Yeah, of course.
- 1:01So I think with regards to length of stay, I mean looking
- 1:04at the data that I've observed, I think the length of stay came
- 1:07down to around 3.7 nights for 2025 across the operators that
- 1:14were locked at. In terms of the data, I think
- 1:18for 2026, operators should read it more of a behavioural signal,
- 1:24not a warning sign if you like. So shorter stays mean tighter
- 1:29intent, so not weaker demand. And the risk isn't the length of
- 1:34stay falling as such, it's actually managing calendars.
- 1:38So when I say managing calendars, I mean, if guests are
- 1:42actually going, whether guests are actually going to stay a
- 1:44full week or whether they're going to stay a couple of times
- 1:48a week, that's basically what should be at the forefront of
- 1:50your calendar management strategy.
- 1:54Also, that's where block demand sits.
- 1:57And if you don't manage it properly, then late discounting
- 2:01and volatility tends to creep into your calendars, which isn't
- 2:05good for any revenue strategy at all.
- 2:08In terms of minimum stays, so we'll get like really specific
- 2:13and simple for, for all the hosts and property managers out
- 2:16there when, when the length of stay is reducing, how do you get
- 2:22your minimum stay strategy right?
- 2:24And, and what would you be advising people to to do to make
- 2:27sure that they've got the right minimum stay strategy?
- 2:30So your minimum stay strategy should be looked at on an annual
- 2:32basis. When you are looking at, I mean
- 2:35you look at your pricing approach, your pricing strategy,
- 2:38your, you know, your commercial strategy, everything else that
- 2:42you renew on an annual basis and therefore your minimum stay
- 2:45should also be looked at on an annual basis.
- 2:48Having a look at the data and understanding what the length of
- 2:50stay patterns were for 2025 in this case does help with the
- 2:55approach that you need to take within 2026.
- 2:59So you, you know, I've experienced it myself whether
- 3:02where you have operators who are very adamant that they just want
- 3:05to have a seven night minimum stay and that's fine if that's
- 3:10what their approach is. But using the data that's
- 3:13available, you should go and talk to those operators and show
- 3:17them the shift in length of stay and bring them on board with
- 3:21what it is that you need to do in terms of renewing those
- 3:24minimum stays. And I think that approach needs
- 3:27to happen at least, if not more than a year, more times in a
- 3:31year, at least once in a year. OK, real talk now for all you
- 3:35hosts out there, you know that moment when your guest messages
- 3:38you again with hey, what's the Wi-Fi code?
- 3:41Or you're staring at 5 different calendars wondering if you've
- 3:45accidentally double booked the cottage.
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- 4:52Do you think the length of stay trend is going to continue?
- 4:56Do you think it might drop further in 2026 or are we, are
- 5:00we at the floor now? I think well looking at the
- 5:04data, the the data that I've seen that's available to us all,
- 5:12all indications do state that there will be some decrease,
- 5:16further decrease in length of stay.
- 5:18So looking at the business on the books at the moment, when I
- 5:23looked at the data, it's I think it was around 3.63 point 5.
- 5:27So it, it had come down slightly.
- 5:31The expectations I believe are that it will sit around that
- 5:35mark. But I mean, anything could
- 5:38change it, right? In terms of rates then where are
- 5:42we? I saw a report out at the end of
- 5:45last year saying rates had gone up a little bit.
- 5:48And we've heard it from various sources that rates have kind of
- 5:50gone up a little bit in, in the UK in 2025 and actually took
- 5:54part in a webinar about this and they said, you know, have rates
- 5:57gone up where you're operating? And I said, well, rates have
- 5:59gone up a little bit like in, in my case, but mainly it's been to
- 6:02cover the expenses because the expenses have gone up.
- 6:04So what do we expect from rates in 2026 and and what happened
- 6:09last year? OK.
- 6:11So with regards to rates specifically then in looking at
- 6:15the data for 2025, the UK overall shift in rates or in
- 6:21average daily rate was around 4% from the data that I've seen.
- 6:27Now what actually changed in 2025 wasn't necessarily a price
- 6:32shift. Obviously you've mentioned that
- 6:34some people put their prices up to cover the costs, but then the
- 6:38costs also increase at the same time.
- 6:40So realistically there was no specific price increase in that
- 6:45context. I think locking up the data what
- 6:49I. Felt.
- 6:51From the data that actually did increase was the tolerance.
- 6:54So guest tolerance for weak value nights actually collapsed.
- 7:00And I think across the UK people were still willing to pay, but
- 7:05they just became far less willing to fill those nights on
- 7:10calendars, which generally are awkward gap nights or shoulder
- 7:14nights if you like. And that in turn then inflated
- 7:17the ADR position to the 4% increase that we saw, not
- 7:23necessarily an increase in prices.
- 7:26Yeah. So people aren't necessarily
- 7:28earning more money, they're just covering their costs it would
- 7:32appear kind of that's that's the market we're in at the moment.
- 7:36Your short term rental business is evolving fast, but how do you
- 7:40keep up with the latest regulation, tax changes and
- 7:44industry trends? The answer is to attend the
- 7:47House Planet Roadshow, which is coming to a city near you in
- 7:512026. This is the UK's premier event
- 7:55for holiday let professionals, supported by the Short Term
- 7:58Accommodation Association, Price Labs and the Women in Short Term
- 8:03Rentals community. This is your essential
- 8:05opportunity for learning, networking and expert insight.
- 8:09Starting in Cornwall on the 5th of February, you'll spend a full
- 8:13day mastering compliance, optimizing your revenue
- 8:16strategies and sharing lessons learned with your peers.
- 8:21After Cornwall will be in Portsmouth on the 4th of March
- 8:24and London on the 23rd of April. That's the day after the short
- 8:29Stay summit. Later in the year we'll be
- 8:31heading to Nottingham, Bath, Chester and Edinburgh.
- 8:34So don't navigate the complex 2026 market alone.
- 8:39Learn from the leaders driving the industry forward and shape
- 8:43the short term rental conversation in your market.
- 8:46Tickets are just £40 each and available now now from our
- 8:51website. Head to Houseplanner dot Club
- 8:54for further details. Another hot topic has been the
- 8:58very short booking windows. This is definitely something
- 9:01that I've experienced as a house with a couple of properties, a
- 9:04lot of people booking on the day or the day before or a couple of
- 9:08days before they arrive. And what's your take on this
- 9:12trend? What happened in 2025 and and
- 9:14again, should we expect this trend to continue this year?
- 9:19Yeah. With regards to planning windows
- 9:20and behaviour changes, I mean planning windows compressed
- 9:24without a shadow or doubt, that's I guess any data that you
- 9:27look at will give you that indication or outcome.
- 9:32So guests still planned, but they committed later.
- 9:35And when they did commit, they actually committed with a lot
- 9:38more of a clearer intent. So changed in terms of trip
- 9:44types as well, so fewer longer trips were were observed.
- 9:50So open-ended holidays and more defined short breaks.
- 9:55I think the shift doesn't reduce revenue, but it does actually
- 9:58make calendar control far more important.
- 10:02And This is why you've mentioned about minimum prices on minimum
- 10:06stays. If you like.
- 10:08This is why it becomes so important to manage the calendar
- 10:11strategy and and continue to check it on an annual basis to
- 10:15ensure that you are in line with the behaviour changes and the
- 10:19planning windows that you are observing within your market.
- 10:22If a host or a property manager comes to you and says, Zach, I'm
- 10:25I'm getting loads of last minute bookings and, and I'm getting
- 10:30worried at the same time because I'm expecting to get these
- 10:34bookings, but I'm looking at an empty calendar.
- 10:37Should they be reducing the rate or should they be holding their
- 10:41nerve when it comes to their rates?
- 10:43So I think that's a really important question, and I think
- 10:46that's really where search activity comes into the mix
- 10:50rather than just looking at bookings that have actually
- 10:53happened. So as part of the data exercise
- 10:57that I did, you'll be able to reference or see from the
- 11:00presentation that we've got, it shows very clearly what happened
- 11:05in terms of search activity within 2025.
- 11:08So what we saw in the data was that, for example, I think it
- 11:13was in June, we saw that the search activity peaked and
- 11:17bookings followed around about 3 weeks later.
- 11:21So that three-week window is what you would call the reaction
- 11:26window. So it's a crucial window where
- 11:28the operators can adjust your rates, your visibility and your
- 11:33strategy. And that's really where demand
- 11:35is hot. So tanking your rates or
- 11:39panicking isn't the right strategy.
- 11:41You've got to understand what your reaction window looks like.
- 11:46And that's where you need the support of your search data, not
- 11:50only your booking data. Because when you put both of
- 11:53them together, it allows you to have a clear cut vision of what
- 11:58you can expect to happen rather than pan discounting or
- 12:02stressing about not receiving the bookings that you feel you
- 12:05should be receiving. Hold your nerve, people, hold
- 12:09your nerve. So you and I very soon will be
- 12:12in Cornwall for the host Planet Roadshow, the very first event.
- 12:18Cornwall's a market, of course, that everybody thinks that they
- 12:21understand 'cause it's such a major part of the UK short term
- 12:24rental industry. But what's the data telling you
- 12:26from what happened there in 2025?
- 12:28I mean, it was very interesting. I'm really glad we looked at it
- 12:31in the details that we did, but Cornwall didn't win or lose in
- 12:36my opinion. Looking at the data, it
- 12:37compressed. So peak summer looked very
- 12:41familiar, but the revenue or the real win if you like, shifted
- 12:45into the shoulder periods, so into the shoulder seasons.
- 12:48So when you break down Cornwall by size and location, SO3 bed
- 12:53homes and well positioned areas performed really well.
- 12:59They were driven by occupancy rather than price and from what
- 13:03I saw in the data, the money wasn't made by pushing August
- 13:06harder, it was made by improving April, May, September and
- 13:11October specifically. And that's really where the
- 13:14operators who really won in terms of Cornwall this year saw
- 13:18the biggest difference. So what's your advice to Cornish
- 13:23operators in 2026? What do they need to be looking
- 13:27out for? I think in terms of looking
- 13:30ahead, obviously take the teachings or the learnings that
- 13:33we've seen for this year, but really focus on those shoulder
- 13:39periods, really focus on those shoulder periods.
- 13:41So everything you've mentioned in terms of minimum stay re
- 13:45evaluating your, what we talked about in terms of reaction
- 13:49windows and having a look at your shoulder performance for
- 13:52this year, bring that into your strategy for 2026 and really
- 13:56focus on those areas. We know that summer sells and it
- 14:00will sell. And yeah, you'll be able to
- 14:02achieve the maximum, maximum rates or revenue hopefully that
- 14:07you you can for that period. But there is demand available
- 14:12within the shoulder seasons. As long as your strategy and
- 14:15your setup is correct, there's no reason why you shouldn't be
- 14:19able to capitalise on that demand.
- 14:22Are you expecting a pretty similar year again?
- 14:24Is is 2026 do you think going to look quite similar to 2025?
- 14:28I think so, yeah. And look, all the indications at
- 14:30the moment do show a similar sort of performance post
- 14:35pandemic. We've seen the increases that we
- 14:37saw, But now 242525 specifically, I think it's more
- 14:43of a normalized curve now. So what we see in not in 2025,
- 14:48we should treat as a more normalised trading year.
- 14:53And therefore if anybody does want to benchmark realistically
- 14:5625 to some degree 24 is, is, is a good year to benchmark.
- 15:01But I do think that from a 2026 point of view, we we are kind of
- 15:05like normalised in terms of where we where we are, where
- 15:08we're going to be for Cornwall. We're in your presentation and
- 15:12we'll put a link to this in the show notes.
- 15:15You've framed 2026 as expectations rather than a
- 15:19forecast, so how should people interpret that?
- 15:22Yeah. I mean, I wasn't going to sit
- 15:24there and do a full-fledged forecast of of of the
- 15:28Commonwealth data that I got because there's a lot of noise
- 15:30in the obviously in terms of the trading data that we are seeing
- 15:34at the moment. But naturally it's it's a good
- 15:37expectation for us to follow. It's, I think it's an
- 15:41implication slide. So it's not a prediction.
- 15:43Everything here flows in terms of what we see in 2025 and what
- 15:50the early signals are in 2026. I think what's really important
- 15:55is that demand hasn't reset. It's almost reorganized.
- 15:59So like I've said, peak will still matter, but it won't
- 16:03stretch enough to save those weak calendars.
- 16:07The upside, if you like, will continue to sit in the
- 16:11shoulders. 2026 isn't going to be about being more aggressive,
- 16:16but I do think it's about being more deliberate and acting much
- 16:21earlier than you probably did in 2025.
- 16:24And that's really where as an operator you should be looking
- 16:28at search data for example, rather than just booking data,
- 16:31because search data tells you intent rather than just what's
- 16:36actually happened post the bookings.
- 16:40If a property management company approached you and just said I,
- 16:43I hear what you're saying, I think you're right.
- 16:46I really want to get my shoulder seasons right and make sure that
- 16:50I'm getting the bookings that maybe my competitors are
- 16:52getting. What should they do to get them?
- 16:55You know what are the specific tactics they can use?
- 16:57So if you want to get shoulder season right, I think what the
- 17:01the real big sticking point in my own experience and
- 17:04understanding the data from what I see in terms of where the the
- 17:09missed opportunities are, if you like are lack of flexibility.
- 17:14I think obviously from a property management company's
- 17:17point of view, sometimes you are quite restricted in terms of
- 17:21having the flexibility because these are the owner expectations
- 17:24and this is what they want to achieve.
- 17:26But I think it's educating the owners with some good data
- 17:30visualizations that you can have access to and show them how the
- 17:34market has actually changed. I think flexibility will remain
- 17:39the the key point having flexibility in terms of your
- 17:43minimum stays, in terms of your minimum prices, in terms of your
- 17:48distribution. Some people don't distribute,
- 17:51you know short breaks for example on those channels where
- 17:55you are able to capitalize on short, short break bookings.
- 17:58So I think flexibility will be key and a critical part in 2026.
- 18:03And as we've said, when you are observing your annual
- 18:07performance, it's something that should be constantly monitored.
- 18:11So speaking to the key stakeholders within the the
- 18:17business from an operations operator's point of view and
- 18:20making sure they're on board with flexibility and opening up
- 18:23to more, more of those more of those options that are available
- 18:30is going to be critical. Also, in your presentation
- 18:33you've mentioned quite a bit about demand intent.
- 18:38Why does intent matter more than bookings?
- 18:44I guess with, with regards to demand intent, so let's just be
- 18:49a little bit clear for the audience here what we mean by
- 18:51that. First of all, so demand intent
- 18:53and early signals, we're referring to the search demand
- 18:57of bookings. So bookings are confirmations
- 19:02and search, if you like is formation.
- 19:05So search tells us when confidence is returning and
- 19:09planning starts even before people commit.
- 19:13So in 2025, what we saw in the data search momentum if you
- 19:18like, moved earlier and it stayed much stronger than 2024.
- 19:23That gave operators an early signal that demand was waking
- 19:28up. Now it's not a forecast.
- 19:29We can't ever forecast just purely off the back of search
- 19:33demand. But really importantly, it's an
- 19:36early signal that gives you time to position yourself rather than
- 19:40have to react after. And that's why it's super
- 19:43important to ensure that you bring your demand intent into
- 19:48your revenue strategy. When you look at where demand
- 19:52came from and when people were searching, what stood out most
- 19:56to you? What stood out was stability
- 20:00rather than surprise. So the core domestic demand held
- 20:05for zoning the Data international remained
- 20:09selective, and timing mattered more more than volume.
- 20:14So people didn't actually stop searching, but they searched
- 20:17with intent, and that's closer to travel.
- 20:21That reinforces the idea that demand didn't disappear, it just
- 20:25became a lot more deliberate. And that's the core message that
- 20:29you should take when you are trying to understand where
- 20:32demand actually came from. So when you step back and look
- 20:36at all the UK data from 2025, what's the big regional story
- 20:41that you're seeing? So the big story that we saw in
- 20:45the data is that the same demand environment played out, but very
- 20:50differently if you like, depending on the market type.
- 20:53So we saw that urban markets benefited from short stays and
- 20:56events, coastal markets were very time sensitive and rural
- 21:01markets lagged slightly but followed the same behavioural
- 21:06patterns. So performance wasn't about who
- 21:10had demand, but it was actually about who converted it
- 21:13efficiently. And how do you convert demand
- 21:17efficiently? Yeah.
- 21:19So you take the product that you're offering and match it
- 21:22with a customer type that you're actually trying to target.
- 21:24And I mean, it sounds really easy, right?
- 21:27But it is, you know, once you actually take the right product
- 21:31and position it in front of the right customer, then conversion
- 21:36definitely has a stronger chance of being the booking has a
- 21:40stronger chance of being converted efficiently.
- 21:43Yeah. And breaking it right down and
- 21:44this, this boils down to operators knowing exactly who
- 21:47their target guests are and and going to the places where they
- 21:51hang out. Exactly that.
- 21:53And you know, I'm sure you've heard it many times and we've
- 21:55spoken about it many times, but the revenue management cycle is
- 21:59there for a reason, right? So the right product, the right
- 22:02time, the right price, the right location and the right
- 22:07distribution channel and that's basically what it what it comes
- 22:10down to. You followed the the cycle, then
- 22:14you really can't go wrong. Keep it simple.
- 22:18So if somebody's listening then and taking one thing from this
- 22:21session, what should it be? So the demand didn't disappear,
- 22:26it compressed that, that's a given.
- 22:29So intent moved first, behaviour followed and revenue showed at
- 22:33last. I think if you manage from
- 22:36revenue alone, you're always going to react.
- 22:40And if you manage from intent, then you're going to shape
- 22:42outcome. So manage from intent and shape
- 22:45your outcome for 2026. Sounds like very good advice.
- 22:51Now as we mentioned before, you and I are going to be at the
- 22:53first Roadshow event in Cornwall on the 5th of February.
- 22:57You were at several industry events last year and in recent
- 23:00years. Just tell us the the value of
- 23:03attending industry events and why people should join us on the
- 23:05day. It's fantastic.
- 23:08I think not. I think more specifically, it's
- 23:11fantastic from an educational point of view.
- 23:14I mean, we both were in Italy and I mean a lot of people would
- 23:19have gone to that event that we met.
- 23:21Well, actually did go to that event that we met who didn't
- 23:23actually trade within Italy. But the consensus that we all
- 23:28came to was how beneficial it was from an educational point of
- 23:34view, because a lot of people have a lot of experience and
- 23:36practice. And you know, something that you
- 23:40might not have come across within your own markets,
- 23:42somebody else may have come across in a different market.
- 23:45And people are there to share. You know, people are there to
- 23:47share, to support each other. And I think that's really where
- 23:51the value sits in these events. And that's, I think what we're
- 23:54going to have within all of the the roadshow events that we've
- 23:59got coming up. And if anybody wants to really
- 24:02learn and broaden their experience, understanding, or
- 24:06even, you know, ask questions, try on new things, then it's the
- 24:10place to be. And you and I are the Co
- 24:14founders of Launch Base of course, which is going to be
- 24:17involved in in all the roadshow events.
- 24:19Just tell us a little bit about Launch Base and where people can
- 24:22find out more info. Well, obviously, yes,
- 24:24absolutely. We have our LinkedIn channel now
- 24:27set up. We have our website.
- 24:29You can obviously contact us directly.
- 24:31It's a it's a fantastic platform to support property management
- 24:36companies, operators, tech providers, anybody who really
- 24:40needs support specifically from a digital marketing and also a
- 24:46revenue management point of view.
- 24:47We know and we've come across so many operators who are in the
- 24:53market at the moment who you know, don't have anybody
- 24:57allocated, you know, to carry out the discipline, if you like
- 25:01within their own business or they're just not sure where to
- 25:04start, you know, or, or they just need a helping hand.
- 25:08You can give us a call or you can give us a shout because
- 25:11that's basically what we're here to do.
- 25:13You know, we also offer revenue management auditing, for
- 25:16example. And the audits are great to go
- 25:19into business, to understand what it is that actually it is
- 25:23that you're doing and how you could look to making it better
- 25:27if that is something that is there to happen.
- 25:31You might not need to make anything better.
- 25:33Everything might be working fantastically well for you,
- 25:35which is great and will tell you that in the audit.
- 25:37But the audits are a great place to start.
- 25:40And yeah, if you're obviously interested in anything like
- 25:43that, then give us a shout. And we'll put all the details in
- 25:46the show notes. Yeah.
- 25:46And as Zach was saying, and one thing both of us have come
- 25:49across a lot in the industry is companies that are struggling
- 25:53with revenue management and marketing.
- 25:55We see these two issues come up again and again.
- 25:58And Launch Base exists to help businesses and mainly property
- 26:02management businesses, but also any other STR business.
- 26:05If you have issues with digital marketing, please do get in
- 26:09touch and I'm sure there'll be ways that you can work with us
- 26:12and we can help you to to get your name out there and to get
- 26:15your company running as efficiently as possible and get
- 26:17you in front of the right audience.
- 26:19And as part of the host planet ecosystem, we can certainly get
- 26:22you in front of a lot of STR professionals, host property
- 26:25managers all around the world. Well, Zach, it's been a real
- 26:28pleasure. Thank you for joining us on the
- 26:30show. And I will see you in Cornwall
- 26:32for the first roadshow stop on the 5th of Feb Great to chat to
- 26:35Zach Alley there from launch base.
- 26:37I hope you found that episode useful.
- 26:40That's just about it for today's show.
- 26:41Remember, this podcast is brought to you in collaboration
- 26:44with Housefully, which is trusted by short term rental
- 26:47professionals across the globe. As a Houseplanet listener, you
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- 27:04grab these deals. Click the link in the show notes
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- 27:10trends from the STR industry, visit Houseplanet dot Club where
- 27:14you can listen to our podcasts and download a suite of ebooks
- 27:17for hosts and property managers. That's it for today's episode.
- 27:20Until next time, happy hosting.