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Episode 42 - 5/13/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello and welcome to episode 42 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
• 0:33
  Everyone? Happy Monday?
• 0:35
  The weekend has come and gone. A new week begins here, guys,
• 0:39
  and we are grinding as we always do.
• 0:41
  Hope everyone had a great weekend and a great Mother's
• 0:43
  Day. I have a lot for you today.
• 0:45
  A six pack of Monday sweats here, including four Major
• 0:48
  League Baseball bets, one NBA play and this NBA play.
• 0:51
  The reason I love it is that both Juice Reel and Rhythm are
• 0:55
  overlapping in terms of the recommendations here, and it
• 0:58
  also coincides with the way the market is moving.
• 1:00
  So stay tuned for that bet in the NBA playoffs tonight.
• 1:04
  Also, I have a bet in the NHL for you, so I was looking at
• 1:06
  both games tonight. We have a couple couple spots
• 1:09
  here, desperation spots like for Colorado and for Carolina who
• 1:12
  are down the series. I was kind of entertaining the
• 1:14
  totals and I said, hey, there's a player prop here that looks
• 1:18
  pretty, pretty, pretty good. As as Larry David likes to say,
• 1:21
  pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good.
• 1:24
  So we got one NHL shots on goal prop for you here for tonight.
• 1:28
  Now looking back to the weekend guys, we had a pretty good
• 1:31
  weekend because we had a great pod on Friday 5 and 1 + 2.52
• 1:36
  units. If you remember, we had a
• 1:37
  terrible Thursday 2 and 5 -, 3.3 units.
• 1:40
  But this is the this is the thing you're going to learn if
• 1:42
  you haven't learned yet about sports betting.
• 1:43
  There's UPS, there's downs. Whether you're five and two, two
• 1:47
  and five, five and one, one and five.
• 1:48
  You just keep grinding, you keep sticking with it.
• 1:51
  Never get down on yourself. Always remember that sports
• 1:53
  betting, it's not easy. A lot of people think it is.
• 1:55
  It's not. It's hard.
• 1:57
  We got to overcome the really sharp lines, the odds maker, so
• 1:59
  we got to overcome bad beats, bad officials, guys blowing it
• 2:03
  for us. But again, we continue to grind,
• 2:05
  stay true to the model, which is sharp, contrarian, data-driven
• 2:08
  bets. We had a great Friday, which is
• 2:10
  great to see 5 and 1 + 2.52 units.
• 2:13
  Remember we had the Vancouver Edmonton over six, which cashed,
• 2:16
  and then we had a great day in baseball.
• 2:18
  Mariners, Royals, Phillies and Astros all came through.
• 2:20
  The only loser was the Knicks over and it came up just short
• 2:23
  and actually went ice cold in the fourth quarter.
• 2:25
  So we're that close to a six and O and then little cherry on top,
• 2:29
  we had AUFC winner biting little UFC Woodson, our guy who was
• 2:34
  checking off every single box. It's nice on that when it lines
• 2:37
  up that way. Woodson was younger, taller,
• 2:39
  longer reach line move, low bets, higher dollars, bet split
• 2:42
  and he had that little little extra, which was definitely to
• 2:46
  our benefit when I went to the, when I went to the the, you
• 2:51
  know, what are they called the voters or the judges I should
• 2:53
  say. And the judges went with our guy
• 2:56
  Woodson who was in a homecourt advantage or home Octagon
• 2:58
  advantage as he was from Saint Louis.
• 3:00
  So good weekend overall, let's see if we can keep it rolling
• 3:03
  into today. So as always, because it's
• 3:06
  baseball season, I like to start every pod with some Major League
• 3:09
  Baseball because MLB, it's a long season.
• 3:12
  There's a lot of ups and downs. I actually had my guy, Gary
• 3:15
  Garrison check in and say how you doing an MLB?
• 3:17
  Like, you know, how where am I at?
• 3:19
  How am I at, you know, how should, what should I expect?
• 3:21
  Well, always remember baseball is a very, very long season.
• 3:24
  Again, as I mentioned, lots of ups and downs.
• 3:26
  You got to stick with it. You got to grind.
• 3:28
  You got to grind, grind, grind. So baseball not not bad so far.
• 3:31
  Let's see if we can keep it going here for today.
• 3:33
  So four pack, first one here. I'm looking at a matchup
• 3:37
  tonight, 7:40 PM Eastern Time, Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee
• 3:41
  Brew Crew, and I'm going to go with the beer makers.
• 3:44
  Let's make some beer here tonight, guys.
• 3:46
  A little background here. Pirates coming to this game 18
• 3:49
  and 23, but they're just four and nine over their last
• 3:51
  thirteen games. Struggled a bit here they
• 3:53
  dropped two or three against the Cubs.
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  They lost 5:00 to 4:00 on Sunday as a plus one O 5 home dog.
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  On the flip side, the Brew Crew doing pretty well, 24 and 16.
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  They just took three or four against the Cardinals, did not
• 4:03
  complete the sweep. However, they lost 4:00 to 3:00
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  on Sunday as a -, 150 home favorite.
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  So pitching match up here for tonight we have the Pirates
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  going with righty Mitch Keller who's three and three 4.41 ERA.
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  Meanwhile, the brew crew, they're going with fellow righty
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  Colin Ray. I always thought it was Colin
• 4:19
  Rhea. So he spells his name Rea.
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  It's Ray. I found out three and O 3.29
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  ERA. So what do I like about this
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  one? Well, First off, it's a line
• 4:27
  move toward Milwaukee. We saw this game open as well as
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  Brew Crew, -120 -, 125. Now the Brew Crew haven't been
• 4:34
  up to -140, -, 145, so good, you know, 10-20 cents steam move
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  here in favor of Milwaukee. Now the Brew Crew are getting
• 4:42
  around 83% of bets, 84% of dollars.
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  So kind of a combination of both heavy public support as well as
• 4:48
  sharp action in the form of a big sharp line move.
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  Also you look at big advantage here would be the Bats.
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  You look at the Milwaukee Brewers, they're doing 254 as a
• 4:58
  team, 48 homers, 203 runs scored.
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  Compare that to the Pirates, they're only hitting 2/22 with
• 5:04
  34 homers and 150 runs scored. So hopefully it's a benefit
• 5:07
  here. The offense of Milwaukee.
• 5:10
  Now, some system matches here. I call this the favourites.
• 5:14
  What do I call this winning favorite off a loss, however you
• 5:18
  want to call it. But if you are a winning team
• 5:19
  with a win loss record above 500 and you're coming off a loss and
• 5:23
  you're favourite in the game, those teams this year are 79 and
• 5:27
  3967% with a 13% ROI. That's on my best system matches
• 5:32
  which would match here with Milwaukee.
• 5:34
  Now Milwaukee is plus 35 and run differential.
• 5:37
  Pittsburgh is -27. The Brewers have the better
• 5:40
  bullpen. They have a team area of 3.7
• 5:42
  overs, 4.25. Also looking at righties, 2
• 5:46
  righties on the bump here. Keller versus Ray Milwaukee's
• 5:49
  hitting 264 against righties this year.
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  That's the second best in Major League Baseball.
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  Pittsburgh is hitting 214 against righties.
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  That's dead last 30th in Major League Baseball.
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  So we got a little bit of line movement toward Milwaukee.
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  We got a good system match winning team off a loss.
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  We have a better offense, better offense in particular against
• 6:06
  righties. I'm taking a shot here and again
• 6:09
  some books are actually some totals are 8 or 8 1/2.
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  There's some eights that got bet up to 8 1/2.
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  Now the eight and a halfs are juiced up like it might go back
• 6:16
  down to 8, but if it's at 8 that would technically qualify as a
• 6:20
  favorite. Low total correlative betting.
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  But either way guys, good line move, good offense.
• 6:26
  Offensive advantage. I'm going Milwaukee.
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  Let's go brew crew. I got Milwaukee at around -140.
• 6:32
  Keep on cruising. Washington Nationals.
• 6:34
  Chicago White Sox. I'm going with the Nats.
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  Let's go Nats tonight, baby down in the South side.
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  The Nationals coming to this 119 and 20.
• 6:42
  They did just lose two or three against the Red Sox.
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  They lost three to two yesterday as a + 120 Rd. dog.
• 6:48
  Meanwhile, you look at the White Sox 12 and 29, but believe it or
• 6:51
  not, I couldn't believe it. They won three or four against
• 6:53
  the guardians. Didn't complete the sweep
• 6:55
  though. They lost 7.
• 6:56
  Nothing on Sunday as a + 145 home dog.
• 6:59
  Now tonight's interleague series opener the Nationals are going
• 7:02
  with Rady Trevor Williams. Kind of a journeyman guy but
• 7:04
  he's having a great year four and O 1.96 ERA.
• 7:08
  White Sox meanwhile, will go with Rady.
• 7:10
  Chris Flexin. Remember he was on the Mariners
• 7:12
  last year. Two and three 4.29 ERA this
• 7:16
  year. What have you seen across the
• 7:17
  board? Well movement toward the Nats.
• 7:20
  The Nats open this game around -120, even some shops as low as
• 7:24
  -115. Now they're up to around -130 -,
• 7:27
  135 S Pretty good steam move here in favor of Washington.
• 7:32
  Now the Nats are getting 80% of bets, but 92% of dollars.
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  So good low bets, higher dollars, bet split as well as
• 7:38
  that big steam move in their favor.
• 7:40
  Once again, offense advantage here for Washington?
• 7:43
  They're hitting 2/28 with 160 runs scored.
• 7:46
  Chicago's hitting 213 with only 119 runs scored.
• 7:50
  Favorites off a loss like the Nats.
• 7:52
  Here they're 55 and 3065% the 13 percent ROI this year.
• 7:57
  Now I know the White Sox miraculously have, you know, won
• 8:00
  for their last five or something like that, but on the year
• 8:04
  you've been very profitable to fade wash to fade the White Sox.
• 8:07
  I should say Fading CHW operation.
• 8:09
  Fade CHW is a resulting record of 29 and 1271% with a 9% ROI.
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  Also Washington interleague favorite.
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  So lack of familiarity benefiting the better team was
• 8:21
  expected to win. That's pretty decent on the
• 8:23
  road. 12 and 10. White Sox just 8 and 13 at home.
• 8:26
  So may not be the sexiest match up tonight.
• 8:28
  You know, White Sox. Washington.
• 8:30
  But Washington? Little bit of line movement,
• 8:33
  Tons of system matches here. Let's see if they can get a win
• 8:35
  for us. I'm on the Nats.
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  Shop around. I got the Nationals around -135.
• 8:40
  Keep on cruising. Cincinnati, Arizona.
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  Big match up here out in the desert tonight.
• 8:45
  Reds come into this 117 and 23, but they're just one in 10 their
• 8:49
  last eleven games. They've really dropped off here
• 8:51
  recently. They just lost 3, two of three
• 8:54
  against the G men. They lost six to five yesterday
• 8:56
  and extra innings as a plus one O 5 row dog.
• 8:59
  You know the Diamondbacks? They're making me sweat sweat my
• 9:02
  over 83 1/2 win total, but they're hovering around 500.
• 9:05
  They're now 19 and 22. They just dropped over two or
• 9:08
  three of the Orioles, but did avoid a sweep with A92 win
• 9:11
  yesterday as a + 110 row dog for tonight's series opener.
• 9:14
  The Reds are going with Graham Ashcraft, who's three and two
• 9:18
  3.86 ERA. Meanwhile, the D backs are going
• 9:20
  with Jordan Montgomery. Remember who was one of the
• 9:23
  Boris guys who waited late to sign, but he's two and two with
• 9:27
  a 4.7 OERA this year. Now what have we seen across the
• 9:30
  board? Good movement toward Arizona
• 9:32
  this game open Arizona. This is as low as -135 -, 140
• 9:37
  not seen. Arizona gets steamed up to
• 9:38
  around -145, -, 150. So one way consistent movement
• 9:43
  in favor of Arizona. No buyback that I've seen on
• 9:45
  Cincinnati thus far. Also if you'll get the bet
• 9:47
  percentages around 75% of bets in dollars on Arizona, I had
• 9:52
  someone tweet me, I just want to mention this.
• 9:54
  I I try to mention this on the pod, but like people I know I'm
• 9:57
  a contrarian better, which means betting against the public.
• 10:00
  But remember a lot of people get tripped up like how can you bet
• 10:03
  A-Team getting 75% of money line bets.
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  Remember baseball is different. It's a lower bet sport.
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  We grind baseball every single day.
• 10:10
  But the mass of basically the mass is the betting public.
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  They really don't. So it's not like the NFL, it's
• 10:15
  not like college football. It's not like NBA.
• 10:17
  So therefore, as a contrarian, of course I want to bet against
• 10:20
  the public, but I'm not going to blindly do it based on
• 10:22
  percentages when the majority of those percentages aren't really
• 10:25
  that public. It's more of again people who
• 10:27
  bet MLB everyday who are, I would say probably a little bit
• 10:30
  more informed than just regular average show better, so I just
• 10:32
  want to mention that. But anyway, line move toward the
• 10:35
  Diamondbacks. Big advantage here.
• 10:37
  Offensively they're hitting 246 with two O 5 or 202 hundred and
• 10:41
  five runs scored versus Since he's hitting 2:15 with only 171
• 10:45
  runs scored. D backs have value as a non
• 10:48
  division favorite, lack of familiarity really benefiting
• 10:51
  that better team who is expected to win.
• 10:54
  Also if you look at Arizona in particular, they've kind of had
• 10:57
  the number here. Of the Reds they're three and O
• 10:59
  so far this season against Cincinnati, swept them earlier
• 11:02
  this year. And Jordan Montgomery actually
• 11:04
  his last time out he pitched against the Reds he went seven
• 11:07
  innings, only gave up two runs and Arizona won that game four
• 11:10
  to three. Also, if you look at the kind of
• 11:14
  the specific match up of Reds against the lefties going up
• 11:17
  against Montgomery tonight, they're hitting 214 against
• 11:20
  southpaws. That's 26th in Major League
• 11:22
  Baseball. And then lastly, you know,
• 11:24
  nothing crazy but run differential.
• 11:26
  Arizona plus 17 since he's -7. If there's one thing to kind of
• 11:30
  get be optimistic about, if you play that win total over Arizona
• 11:34
  83 1/2 with me, it's crazy kind of 'cause they're three games
• 11:37
  below 500, but they have a + 17 run differential.
• 11:40
  So typically you know if you're three games below 500, you have
• 11:44
  a minus run differential. The fact that basically they
• 11:47
  have a A+ run differential despite being three games below
• 11:50
  500 tells me they've gotten a little bit unlucky.
• 11:52
  Unlucky. So hopefully they regress in a
• 11:54
  positive fashion here for tonight.
• 11:56
  But good line movement again since he struggles against
• 11:59
  lefties. I'm going with the snakes.
• 12:01
  Let's go Arizona. I got Arizona at around -150
• 12:05
  now, last bet of the night, Let's go up to Safeco, even
• 12:08
  though it's no longer Safeco, it's T-Mobile now.
• 12:10
  What do you say guys? Let's visit Kurt Cobain's grave.
• 12:13
  Let's get some sushi. Let's watch the Seattle Mariners
• 12:16
  hopefully cash a big bet here for you.
• 12:18
  But anyway, it's Casey in Seattle.
• 12:21
  Kansas City comes into this 125 and 17.
• 12:24
  They did just, however, take three out of four against the
• 12:27
  Angels. Won four to two yesterday.
• 12:29
  Meanwhile, the Mariners, they're 22 and 19.
• 12:31
  They just took two or three against Oakland for tonight,
• 12:34
  pitching match up. Here we have the righty Brady
• 12:37
  Singer going for Kansas City. Three and one 2.36 ERA.
• 12:41
  He'll be opposed by George Kirby.
• 12:42
  Fellow righty 3 and three 4.15 ERA why do I like Seattle here
• 12:47
  Once again, start off with the line movement.
• 12:49
  That's the easiest way to identify where the respective
• 12:51
  money is is flowing and it's going towards Seattle.
• 12:54
  This game open with the Mariners listed as low as around -135.
• 12:58
  Now they're all the way up to -145.
• 13:00
  Some shops even flirting with a move to -150.
• 13:03
  So you have more than a, you know, 10-15 cents team move in
• 13:06
  favor of Seattle. Now, Seattle would also match as
• 13:09
  a favorite in a low total game. So this total is 7.
• 13:12
  So fewer amount of expected runs scored, more likely to come from
• 13:15
  that quote UN quote better team based upon the favorite
• 13:18
  designation. Also, you have a non division
• 13:20
  favorite angle, lack of familiarity benefiting the
• 13:23
  better team. And it's also fishy in terms of
• 13:26
  the fact that you know, if you look at Seattle, they're 22 and
• 13:28
  19. They are what, Three games below
• 13:31
  above 500? Kansas City's 25 and 17?
• 13:34
  They're eight games above 500. So why is a team who is
• 13:38
  basically the less or not lesser of two evils, but the team with
• 13:41
  the worst record favored by such a kind of substantial margin,
• 13:45
  -150? It kind of feels like, hey, how
• 13:47
  do you not take plus money with KC yet wise guys have hit
• 13:50
  Seattle, caused this move towards Seattle, so tells me we
• 13:53
  got some sharp action on the Mariners.
• 13:55
  I'm also going to bank on their bullpen.
• 13:56
  They've been better this year than Kansas City bullpen ERA of
• 13:59
  3.2 O versus 3.87 for Kansas City, but a good sharp line move
• 14:05
  favorite low total non division favorite.
• 14:07
  Kind of a fishy angle here where the team with the the better
• 14:10
  record is actually the dog. I'm going to fade that quote UN
• 14:13
  quote trendy dog. I'm going to go with Seattle.
• 14:15
  Give me the Mariners. Got the Mariners around -145 S,
• 14:19
  Milwaukee, Washington, Arizona and Seattle.
• 14:22
  Can we get three out of four? That is the goal.
• 14:25
  Keep on cruising. Now let's go over to the NBA
• 14:28
  because we got a double header here in the NBA as well as the
• 14:30
  NHL and wouldn't you know it we have a very good overlap on one
• 14:34
  game in particular tonight. It's not Celtics Cavs.
• 14:37
  Celtics Cavs right now totals around two O 7.
• 14:41
  It's around -8 1/2 for the Celtics, some books for -8
• 14:44
  update and 1/2 for Boston. That total did come down a
• 14:47
  little bit, you know, two O 8 1/2 down to two O 7.
• 14:49
  I just don't like betting Celtics games.
• 14:51
  I'm a Celtics fan, but either they'll blow you out and win by
• 14:54
  30 or they'll, you know, lose straight up as a 14 1/2 point
• 14:58
  favorite. So I really want nothing to do
• 14:59
  with this game. I'm going to focus on the second
• 15:01
  game here. OK C and Dallas.
• 15:04
  Now this one is really interesting for a couple of
• 15:06
  reasons. First off, this is a desperation
• 15:08
  spot for Oklahoma City. Remember did take a serious
• 15:11
  price here on OK C at -120 before the series began.
• 15:15
  Now it's not looking great because after winning game one,
• 15:18
  which are looking really good, OK C has now dropped two
• 15:21
  straight They lost 119 to 110 in game two.
• 15:24
  They lost again one O 5 to one O 1 over the weekend.
• 15:27
  But but but but I'm going to take the points of the OK C
• 15:31
  Thunder tonight. I'll tell you why.
• 15:33
  First off, the market in the move and the percentages look
• 15:37
  really good toward OK C so the Dallas Mavericks coming to this
• 15:40
  one, Dallas Mavericks open -2 1/2, they're down to -2 and even
• 15:45
  -1 1/2 at some shop. So very short opening number
• 15:49
  here in terms of the favorite for Dallas yet it's starting to
• 15:52
  fall. Basically order has fallen
• 15:55
  closer toward a pick em in favor of OK C So automatically those 2
• 15:59
  1/2 are down to two or 1 1/2 in favor of OK C So that piqued my
• 16:02
  interest said hey you know OK C looks like they're taking some
• 16:05
  money. Then I go over to the DraftKings
• 16:07
  betting percentages and they have a very good split here,
• 16:11
  which you can find these percentages from on bison.com.
• 16:14
  They have a great split toward OKC in terms of bets and
• 16:17
  dollars. Now only 47% of bets are on the
• 16:21
  Thunder tonight in the points, but the Thunder are taking in
• 16:24
  70% of dollars on the spread, so 43% bets, 70% money.
• 16:29
  What does that tell us? That tells us that basically the
• 16:32
  public is split even they're slightly leaning toward Dallas.
• 16:35
  Yet the bigger sharper wagers are again going with OK, C7 out
• 16:40
  of $10, even though it's, you know, basically a little less
• 16:42
  than five out of 10 bets. So desperate spot here for OK C
• 16:46
  Also doesn't hurt that we have 3 Rd. referees tonight.
• 16:50
  No, it's not the extender. And you know, anywhere else with
• 16:53
  Boston, he's Scott Foster, the extender, and Boston he's the
• 16:56
  extender. Like Tom Brady, the guy who
• 16:58
  deflated his balls, John Dostromsky and McNally the
• 17:01
  Deflator. Anyway.
• 17:03
  By the way, I love the Tom Brady roast.
• 17:05
  I already mentioned that, but if you haven't seen it, you better
• 17:06
  go watch it anyway. Curtis Blair, Zach Zarba, and
• 17:10
  David Guthrie, The three lead refs for tonight, all big Rd.
• 17:13
  refs. Curtis Blair, Zarba and Guthrie
• 17:16
  are between 40 or sorry, 55 to 57% in favor of the road teams.
• 17:22
  Hopefully get some friendly whistles in favor of OK C then
• 17:26
  to finish off the play here for the the OK C Thunder, which
• 17:30
  again, shop around and try to find a 2.
• 17:32
  Again. There's twos out there.
• 17:33
  There's 1 1/2's out there. Try to find that too if you can.
• 17:36
  If not, I'll take that 1 1/2. If you want to be bold and go
• 17:39
  money line, it's fine with me too, but I'd hate to see them
• 17:42
  lose by one and you know you would have cast your 1 1/2.
• 17:44
  But anyway, the last little you know piece of the puzzle here is
• 17:49
  that both Rhythm and Juice Reel have a recommendation and
• 17:52
  they're both on OK C Rhythm is projecting Dallas -0.9 points.
• 18:00
  So basically Rhythm has Dallas -1.
• 18:03
  We're getting OK C + 1 1/2. So just from a value standpoint,
• 18:07
  an Edge. Edge is basically an advantage
• 18:09
  over the sports books that would point toward OK C and then Juice
• 18:14
  Reel, who does a great job not only syncing your sports books
• 18:17
  to the app so you can track your performance and learn more about
• 18:20
  yourself as a better, but they also dish out the Robo Jackson
• 18:23
  plays each day. 2 picks that come out every day at noon and
• 18:27
  wouldn't you know it one of them is on.
• 18:29
  OK C baby so juice Reel has Oklahoma City Thunder.
• 18:33
  Let me just double check. I'm going to see if they have
• 18:35
  the points or or they have the money line.
• 18:39
  One second here let me pull it up plus 1 1/2.
• 18:43
  OK so their play is was with the points plus 1 1/2 but that would
• 18:47
  also match. So basically remember when when
• 18:50
  Robo Jackson, the AI bot comes up with these plays each day.
• 18:53
  Basically they come over all the data and they submit it into a
• 18:56
  best bet calculator and you know punches out the two top rated
• 18:59
  plays. One of which again is OK C + 1
• 19:02
  1/2 rhythm is saying it should be a one point game.
• 19:04
  Let's take the points here guys in a desperate spot for OK C I'm
• 19:08
  going +2 ideally if not plus 1 1/2.
• 19:12
  Just want to mention too before I give you an NHL bet.
• 19:14
  The Denver Nuggets. They're like the undertaker
• 19:16
  rising from the dead Denver Nuggets who if you recall we bet
• 19:20
  after recommended on the podcast to bet after they lost game one.
• 19:24
  They got Nuggets at plus one O 8 to win the series.
• 19:28
  They ended up losing that game to go down O2, but yet they've
• 19:31
  clawed back and won the last two games and in pretty dominate
• 19:34
  dominant fashion. Both games are in Minnesota now
• 19:38
  that the series is tied two to two.
• 19:40
  The Nuggets are now -175 to win the series so if you played that
• 19:45
  plus one O 8 with me after game one, not too bad.
• 19:48
  Denver Nuggets. I thought they were done with
• 19:50
  the heart of a champion. Roars back anyway to finish up
• 19:53
  the pod. Got a couple big NHL games here
• 19:56
  tonight. Carolina and the New York
• 19:57
  Rangers. Rangers are trying to finish off
• 20:00
  Carolina games. Pretty much stayed around
• 20:03
  Carolina, -110, -, 115. The under is juiced up five and
• 20:07
  a half a little bit, but I'm going to focus on Dallas,
• 20:09
  Colorado now. Part of me wanted to play
• 20:11
  Colorado just from AI, have a system of desperation system
• 20:15
  where if you have playoff experience and you're off a
• 20:17
  loss, especially if you're a favorite at home, you know, make
• 20:20
  that play. Colorado has a little bit of
• 20:22
  line movement. They're like -130 up to -135 but
• 20:26
  instead. I took a look over at the props
• 20:29
  for tonight's game and looking at shots on goal and one in
• 20:33
  particular caught my eye. So I said, hey, let's give it a
• 20:35
  shot. I'm going with Logan Stankovan.
• 20:41
  Stankovan, Stankovan, I don't know how you pronounce it.
• 20:43
  Logan Stankovan. Over 1 1/2 shots, Dallas Stars.
• 20:48
  Now I got this at -156, so it's trying to find around -150 -,
• 20:53
  160. Again, shop around.
• 20:54
  Get the best number. This kid, Stan COVID, I was
• 20:57
  learning about him a little bit. First he jumped off to me in the
• 21:00
  box scores because he has had three shots on goal in all three
• 21:03
  games of the series. SO3 shots.
• 21:06
  Game one, three shots. Game 2-3 shots.
• 21:08
  Game three and game three, he just had two goals.
• 21:11
  Now he has gone over 1 1/2 shots.
• 21:13
  So he's had at least two shots in eight of ten playoff games
• 21:17
  and he's 4th on the team in shots with 22.
• 21:21
  Now doing a little more research I learned this kids only 2121
• 21:25
  years old he's he was a second round pick so again got to have
• 21:28
  some skill to be drafted that high but then for some reason
• 21:30
  the Stan Cobin kid, I didn't know much about him like oh what
• 21:32
  is he on 3rd or 4th line. He skates on the first line next
• 21:36
  to rope hints and Robertson the sniper there.
• 21:40
  So if he's on the top line getting a lot of offensive, you
• 21:43
  know, zone time as well as got a couple guys who are great
• 21:46
  passers, he's gone over this number 8 of 10.
• 21:49
  You know he's had you know 4th on the team and shots in the
• 21:51
  post season. I'm going to go with Logan, Stan
• 21:54
  COVID over 1 1/2 shots tonight at -156.
• 21:59
  That's the number that I got. So that about does it guys, 6
• 22:02
  pack here to start our week. But reminder, if you enjoy this
• 22:06
  podcast, then guess what, I want you to also enjoy hopefully
• 22:10
  winning sports bets in order to do that.
• 22:12
  Of course stick with the data-driven model, but also you
• 22:15
  can look for tools that can help you win and there's two of them
• 22:18
  here. The first one is rhythm.
• 22:20
  If you haven't done it yet, I want you to go sign up for a
• 22:21
  free rhythm seven day trial. If you're into prop bets,
• 22:25
  they're fantastic at props as well as game recommendations.
• 22:28
  You can create your own models, you can follow their models, but
• 22:30
  Rhythm powers this pod. They're from Boston.
• 22:33
  I love them. They're the best.
• 22:34
  If you haven't signed up yet, I want you to, if you're listening
• 22:37
  on Spotify, to just click that bio within the the podcast.
• 22:41
  We'll have a breakdown of today's episode.
• 22:43
  You know the plays. I'm kind of the mention of what
• 22:45
  you know, 6 pack UPS plays today, yadda yadda yadda.
• 22:48
  Then they'll be two links to sign up for rhythm as well as
• 22:50
  Juice Reel. So Juice Reel Of course.
• 22:52
  I also want you to put some Juice Reel into your life so
• 22:56
  that you can track your performance by syncing your
• 22:58
  sports books by getting the Robo Jackson plays each day.
• 23:01
  The Sharp Mush plays each day. It's a fantastic app created by
• 23:04
  my buddy Ricky Gold. So there also be a link to Juice
• 23:07
  Reel within the bio description of the podcast.
• 23:10
  You can also find just peruse my Twitter page.
• 23:12
  You'll find some links here in order to sign up and get that
• 23:15
  custom link for both Rhythm and Juice Reel, but give it a shot.
• 23:18
  Again, I only like to partner with apps that I I know are
• 23:22
  data-driven and are meant to help people win versus maybe
• 23:26
  powering the sports books which I don't know if it's in their
• 23:28
  best interest that you win. But anyway guys.
• 23:31
  Of course if you enjoy the pod and you also want to learn more
• 23:34
  about data-driven sports betting then guess what?
• 23:36
  I have a recommendation. Go buy my book.
• 23:38
  Maybe you forgot to get something for mom for Mother's
• 23:40
  Day or Father day. Father's Day is coming up or you
• 23:43
  need AI. Don't know birthday gift or you
• 23:46
  know we're not. Not too close to stocking
• 23:48
  stuffers or the holidays or whatever.
• 23:50
  But if you want to learn more about sports betting, if you
• 23:52
  want to support the team, if you want to make my day most
• 23:54
  importantly make me happy, then guess what?
• 23:56
  Go buy my book. It's only 20 bucks.
• 23:59
  It might even be like 16 bucks. But just go to Amazon.com.
• 24:02
  Type in the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
• 24:04
  Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
• 24:06
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry, guys.
• 24:08
  How lines are set, how and why they move, How to read line
• 24:11
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
• 24:13
  person or online. How to shop for the best line,
• 24:16
  how to set up a bankroll management plan.
• 24:18
  All included in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 24:20
  So pick up a copy, gift it to a friend.
• 24:23
  That'll mean a lot to me. And when I see at the book, I'll
• 24:25
  sign that, I'll sign a copy of the book and I'll buy you a
• 24:28
  beer. Or I'll buy you a ginger ale.
• 24:29
  How about a cranberry juice? Whatever you need.
• 24:32
  But anyway, guys, that about does it for episode 42 of the
• 24:35
  All Systems Gopod Powered by rhythm.
• 24:37
  Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
• 24:41
  Rhode Island, The Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
• 24:44
  Sun. Down in Connecticut at the
• 24:46
  Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino.
• 24:48
  Or MGM Springfield. And my neck of the woods in
• 24:50
  Massachusetts. Or out in the desert where the
• 24:53
  true grinders get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
• 24:55
  number runners. Where lowest use possible is
• 24:57
  down at the South Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
• 24:59
  plays jumping in the circa pool stadium.
• 25:02
  Swim and he catch a big ticket on Woodson and the UFC.
• 25:05
  Biting. However, maybe you're going to
• 25:07
  show me that Woodson ticket. Or that Vancouver Edmonton over
• 25:10
  six. Or Mariners, Royals, Phillies,
• 25:12
  Astros. What a great Friday that was 5
• 25:14
  and 1 + 2.52 units. And guess what?
• 25:17
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 25:19
  Then we're going to post about the book.
• 25:20
  Sweat sharp, contrarian plays all night long.
• 25:23
  So wish the best luck. Everyone always like to leave
• 25:26
  you with these words. Little pearly words of of
• 25:29
  advice. Wisdom here.
• 25:31
  Stay sharp. Stay contrarian.
• 25:33
  Bet against the public. Place yourself on the side of
• 25:35
  the house. Always be with the smart money,
• 25:37
  never against it. Will smart money one every time?
• 25:39
  Of course not. You can cap a game perfectly.
• 25:42
  Get some CLV, maybe the team lets you down.
• 25:44
  But here's the thing. Those are one offs.
• 25:46
  If you consistently long term, stick to the model.
• 25:49
  Stick to the blueprint against the public, with the house, with
• 25:52
  the pros flat bet. Avoid parlays.
• 25:54
  Get some CLV if you can do that and we can do that together.
• 25:57
  We're going to be successful sports bettors, so enjoy the
• 25:59
  sweats, everyone. A big Monday.
• 26:01
  I got a you know what's a big money for me?
• 26:03
  I got a double header in my softball, my beer league
• 26:05
  softball league tonight. So we're under the lights in
• 26:08
  Alston. Where is it?
• 26:10
  It's either Cambridge or Alston tonight.
• 26:12
  But I got my seeds ready to go and I love playing under the
• 26:15
  lights. I feel like I'm.
• 26:16
  I'm in high school again playing for the Mount Mount Greylock
• 26:19
  Mounties. But anyway, guys have a great
• 26:21
  night. Wish me luck in softball Over
• 26:24
  under. What's my over Under tonight?
• 26:26
  In both games Over under, Let's See 6 1/2 bases Massive Steam on
• 26:32
  the over. Enjoy the sweats guys.
• 26:35
  Have a great day. Good luck and I'll see you
• 26:36
  tomorrow for a big Tuesday Episode 43 of the All Systems Go
• 26:41
  Sports Betting Podcast. Good luck.