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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | From USDA Acreage Surprises To Crude Oil Whiplash · AG Bull

0:09
SPEAKER_01: Welcome back to the Agbo Podcast.
0:12
SPEAKER_01: I'm sitting in my new studio here in Nashville, Tennessee.
0:15
SPEAKER_01: AgBOMia, AgBOL Trading's moved.
0:18
SPEAKER_01: Actually, the whole company, Nesvik Trading's also moved.
0:21
SPEAKER_01: You can see I have some junk around this studio and it's not done.
0:25
SPEAKER_01: But what you're seeing is that's actually a glass wall reflecting into beautiful Nashville.
0:31
SPEAKER_01: Speaking of beautiful, I want to wish you and all your families a happy Easter.
0:35
SPEAKER_01: And Jim will add some color to that also.
0:38
SPEAKER_01: We have an action-packed show.
0:39
SPEAKER_01: I gotta tell you, compared to some of the other weekends, it is Saturday morning, 4-4, day before Easter.
0:46
SPEAKER_01: Not as much drama as we're used to, but looking at Jim's show notes, being pretty good stuff.
0:52
SPEAKER_01: Real quick before we get started, if you haven't subscribed, we'd love to have you on the premium service.
0:57
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0:59
SPEAKER_01: We're ramping up production, daily text, emails, morning summary, afternoon summary, premium content videos, educational pieces, etc., all for$25 a month.
1:11
SPEAKER_01: Well, let's not wait around here too much and tell you about all that.
1:15
SPEAKER_01: And we also have uh some interesting new partnerships we've struck up.
1:19
SPEAKER_01: But the guy you're here to see, the one and only, Mr.
1:23
SPEAKER_01: Jim Weissmeyer, sitting back patiently.
1:26
SPEAKER_01: I think he just had a sip of his coffee, and by saying that he'll probably giggle.
1:30
SPEAKER_01: Let's give him a proper introduction and uh we'll get in the show.
2:10
SPEAKER_00: Jim Weasymeyer.
2:12
SPEAKER_00: Here we are.
2:13
SPEAKER_00: Here we are.
2:14
SPEAKER_00: You know, with Easter coming up, I real briefly I want to tell you what I'm famous for in my family.
2:21
SPEAKER_00: When I was younger, of course, I had uh several compatriots with me, my two sisters.
2:29
SPEAKER_00: Uh we were very close.
2:31
SPEAKER_00: I was the youngest, and then my two sisters, two years older, right in a row.
2:35
SPEAKER_00: Well, at Easter time, I went up and got to I went to early Christmas Mass in the morning, and then I came back while they went to church and I hunted all the Easter eggs in the yard that my parents hid.
2:52
SPEAKER_00: That was a no-no.
2:56
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you said early.
2:57
SPEAKER_01: Did you say Easter Mass or Christmas Mass?
2:59
SPEAKER_01: You meant Christmas.
3:01
SPEAKER_01: No, Easter, Easter, yeah, Easter, Easter Mass.
3:04
SPEAKER_01: Well, so you were the egg stealer.
3:06
SPEAKER_00: Egg stealer, yeah.
3:07
SPEAKER_00: It's like the old Seinfeld episode.
3:09
SPEAKER_00: You mean I shouldn't have done that?
3:11
SPEAKER_00: Nobody told me not to do that.
3:14
SPEAKER_01: Speaking of Seinfeld, that's so wild you brought that up.
3:17
SPEAKER_01: How we're gonna tie this together.
3:19
SPEAKER_01: When I came into my office earlier and I was building the show, I was actually listening to a Jerry Seinfeld Howard Stern podcast.
3:26
SPEAKER_01: Do you know how the Seinfeld show started?
3:30
SPEAKER_01: No, Jerry Seinfeld got asked by NBC.
3:33
SPEAKER_01: Jerry Seinfeld used to go on Carson about four or five times a year.
3:37
SPEAKER_01: Now I'm sure most of your life you spent.
3:39
SPEAKER_01: I was young, but Carson was just the man.
3:41
SPEAKER_01: I mean, Johnny Carson was amazing.
3:44
SPEAKER_01: You did you ever meet Johnny Carson?
3:46
SPEAKER_00: No, but I knew his driver.
3:49
SPEAKER_01: Close enough.
3:50
SPEAKER_01: All right, back to the show.
3:51
SPEAKER_01: So Jerry Seinfeld was on fire, and someone from NBC called him in and said, Jerry, for some reason we think NBC might sometime have a Seinfeld show.
4:01
SPEAKER_01: What would you see that looking like?
4:02
SPEAKER_01: Jerry Seinfeld said, I quote, I have no clue.
4:06
SPEAKER_01: I've always wanted to come to a meeting like this, and I'm just so excited you invited me.
4:11
SPEAKER_01: So then he leaves and he goes and meets with Larry David, and they're sitting at a Korean restaurant and they're teasing everybody in New York, right?
4:22
SPEAKER_01: And it's two guys eating lunch who are friends, teasing everybody and everything that did you hear what he said?
4:28
SPEAKER_01: Did you hear what she said?
4:30
SPEAKER_01: And then Larry David goes, You should go back to NBC and propose a show that is two friends or a group of friends in New York teasing the heck out of everyone in their life.
4:42
SPEAKER_01: And that's what Seinfeld, how it starts.
4:44
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, they and they had some of that on their show of the show about nothing.
4:49
SPEAKER_01: The show about nothing.
4:51
SPEAKER_00: Nothing he used everything.
4:52
SPEAKER_00: He used everything.
4:54
SPEAKER_01: Anyway, yeah.
4:56
SPEAKER_00: But like the show at the very end, they wrapped a lot of different plots together at the very end, and that's what we're gonna do with each podcast.
5:05
SPEAKER_01: Look at you, real enough sin.
5:07
SPEAKER_01: All right, well, uh, I'm in a good mood, you're in a better mood, and let's get to markets, which weren't uh the markets weren't nothing to we digested a lot, a lot of information.
5:19
SPEAKER_01: And I think when people look at the markets page, they're gonna be surprised at how much we didn't actually move, correct?
5:26
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, look at uh corn down all almost 10 cents, soybeans uh up a little because, as we'll say, they didn't get as many acres, at least in the intentions report, that they thought.
5:39
SPEAKER_00: Meal has been on a dramatic run-up, so that was just a little bit correction.
5:44
SPEAKER_00: Oil continues to rally.
5:46
SPEAKER_00: Look at that, that's on consumptive demand and tight and and tight, yeah, soybean oil and a tight capacity.
5:55
SPEAKER_00: Wheat again, the hard red winter down 17, and you can see the other ones.
5:59
SPEAKER_00: But wheat's had a pretty good run, Tommy, at this one.
6:02
SPEAKER_00: Look at HRW over six dollars and spring wheat almost 650.
6:07
SPEAKER_00: I'll take that when we can get it.
6:09
SPEAKER_00: Cotton, thank goodness.
6:11
SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
6:11
SPEAKER_00: Well, on the May contract, we're called 71 cents.
6:15
SPEAKER_00: They had a good week.
6:16
SPEAKER_00: Now we're still far from break-even, but at least the trend is our friend there.
6:21
SPEAKER_00: And cattle, I'll let you go on.
6:23
SPEAKER_00: It just continues to be demand pole markets.
6:26
SPEAKER_00: We're not seeing any significant decrease in the demand for the products, and we will continue to have a tight cattle fit.
6:34
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, back to back, monster cattle week, especially in feeders.
6:38
SPEAKER_01: I do have a little color I just want to add and toss around with you.
6:42
SPEAKER_01: If I would have told you crude oil would close at the highest price it's closed at because it's traded higher on the year, but then we had that dramatic sell-off when we traded up 27 and then down that day.
6:54
SPEAKER_01: But crude oil was up twelve dollars a barrel on Friday, and corn still closed unchanged or lower and lower on the week.
7:02
SPEAKER_01: I find that amazing because one-third of the whole corn crop's ethanol, and you got a piece on that here in a little bit.
7:09
SPEAKER_00: But true.
7:10
SPEAKER_00: And on oil, what we saw this week that you don't usually see US oil, WT WTI, traded above Brent oil, and you usually don't see that.
7:22
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I did find out why that is is that one contract had the April contract expiring and one had the May, yes, and there's more time, and the one contract like ran out of time.
7:33
SPEAKER_01: So it's not like there's May front month, May front month.
7:36
SPEAKER_01: There was different front months, and then that's what caused the uh crisscross.
7:41
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, dynamic move.
7:42
SPEAKER_01: It is Saturday.
7:43
SPEAKER_01: We have Easter tomorrow.
7:45
SPEAKER_01: Happy Easter.
7:45
SPEAKER_01: I I just want to warn people.
7:47
SPEAKER_01: I don't want to scare people, I don't want to be a jerk, but Nesvik came out with a good set of numbers.
7:52
SPEAKER_01: Friday, the markets were closed, but yet they still release non-farm payrolls.
7:56
SPEAKER_01: Jim has a nice piece about that later.
7:58
SPEAKER_01: But I just want to warn you from the broker and trader is that the funds are massively long soybean oil, abnormally long soybeans, and at like the 70 or 85, 70 to 80 percentile of most ever long corn.
8:16
SPEAKER_01: And when the funds are the most long or 80 percent of the most long they've ever been corn, and crude oil is going up ten ten dollars a day, and corn's not going up, that should scare people.
8:27
SPEAKER_01: That should be the caution.
8:28
SPEAKER_01: Hey, you know that beep, beep, beep we just heard in the background, Jim?
8:32
SPEAKER_01: Tell people what that was.
8:34
SPEAKER_00: Well, that's trade trade the news, and we get that.
8:37
SPEAKER_00: We're we're a proud user of it.
8:39
SPEAKER_00: And I mean, they're they're almost second by second if something breaks, and sometimes it gives me a lead.
8:45
SPEAKER_00: So I appreciate that service, Tommy.
8:47
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
8:48
SPEAKER_01: Trade the news, new sponsor of the uh Eggbull Podcast, Wiesmeyer's Perspectives.
8:52
SPEAKER_01: And yeah, they were nice enough to really help us.
8:55
SPEAKER_01: If you don't know what trade the news is, go sign up for a free trial.
8:59
SPEAKER_01: But every one of our folks now at Agble Media and AgBull Trading has Trade the News myself, Jim Wiesmeyer, Joe Grassaffee, Lindsay, Jed, and there may be a few more coming down the pipe, but trade the news, news sponsor of the show.
9:12
SPEAKER_01: And I tell you what, how the heck you're navigating these markets, if you're anywhere involved in trading and you don't have a service like that, bless your heart, because you're gonna be behind the news, right?
9:23
SPEAKER_01: So you definitely need that.
9:24
SPEAKER_01: All right, let's go to the fireworks show here.
9:27
SPEAKER_01: Perspective plannings report.
9:29
SPEAKER_00: We got it out of the way.
9:31
SPEAKER_00: That's number one.
9:32
SPEAKER_00: What I like to emphasize, this is just a snapshot.
9:36
SPEAKER_00: Yes, things can change, and they probably will.
9:40
SPEAKER_00: Now, the the the one disconcerting thing, Tommy, is I think you've got a one-liner below the farmer participation rate for this report was under 40%, 37%.
9:52
SPEAKER_00: Talk about that.
9:53
SPEAKER_01: What's that mean?
9:54
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, my good friend Tyne Morgan got that out of the network.
9:57
SPEAKER_01: Would Tyne say the same that you guys were good friends?
10:00
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely, she would.
10:02
SPEAKER_01: All right, we'll see.
10:03
SPEAKER_01: I'll send her this.
10:04
SPEAKER_00: And that's pretty low because if I recall last year it was uh it was in the low 40s.
10:10
SPEAKER_00: So the the the concern there is you can get a distorted viewpoint and certain crops if you don't have the adequate participation.
10:20
SPEAKER_00: And NAS knows this, and that's why they're going to look at ways to include more farmer participation.
10:27
SPEAKER_00: And one of them is what Deputy Secretary uh Vaden, Stephen Vaden told us to go digitally to that farmers can uh fill in that information online so they don't have to wait on snail mail to one get the survey and number two to send it in, Tommy.
10:45
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he was very clear when you did that wonderful interview because we had asked him during the Vaden interview saying, Well, what's the deal with this?
10:53
SPEAKER_01: And you know what he said?
10:54
SPEAKER_01: Remember his quote?
10:56
SPEAKER_01: I work at the USDA, not the United States Postal Service, and they got problems over there.
11:01
SPEAKER_01: That's funny as hell.
11:02
SPEAKER_01: I couldn't believe he popped that one out of there.
11:04
SPEAKER_00: And he mentioned April 22nd, NASA's having the meeting in Kansas City that if you've got complaints, that's the time to bring them.
11:11
SPEAKER_00: So he wants he wants solutions.
11:13
SPEAKER_00: And and farmers and industry analysts, this is your time.
11:17
SPEAKER_00: Just don't complain.
11:18
SPEAKER_00: Offer potential solutions.
11:20
SPEAKER_01: I have one more bit of color to add to that.
11:22
SPEAKER_01: And I'm sure you saw this, but you and I should add this clip, and I didn't.
11:26
SPEAKER_01: The USDA NAS released at what days the surveys came in.
11:31
SPEAKER_01: Did you see that?
11:32
SPEAKER_00: That yeah, and it's and it's to equal right in the middle of their as of March 31.
11:37
SPEAKER_00: So they'll go a few days before and a few days after.
11:42
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
11:42
SPEAKER_01: And and we weren't at the heat of this war.
11:45
SPEAKER_01: That's what's so important was when the first surveys came into them, crude oil wasn't going bonkers so much.
11:51
SPEAKER_01: It was just starting, correct?
11:52
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, the war started February the 28th.
11:54
SPEAKER_00: So some of it was in there, but uh this is uh as of March intentions.
12:00
SPEAKER_00: So yeah, it didn't truly reflect it.
12:03
SPEAKER_00: You're you're correct.
12:04
SPEAKER_00: And that's why traders uh and analysts are fading the report.
12:09
SPEAKER_00: They think that there could and very likely will be changes.
12:12
SPEAKER_00: Maybe we'll see fewer corn acres in the June, what, June 30th uh acreage report?
12:17
SPEAKER_01: June 30th, 30 percent.
12:18
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's a next snapshot.
12:20
SPEAKER_00: But that that'll be more realistic.
12:23
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and this is this is what we saw, and this is relative to USDA's outlook uh uh forum projections as well.
12:31
SPEAKER_00: Now, the bottom line, and uh I we don't want to get too myopic here, is that we had uh fewer soybeans, the growth in the increase in soybean plantings were less than the pre-report expectations, and corn was higher.
12:47
SPEAKER_00: Okay, that's the snapshot.
12:49
SPEAKER_00: Wheat is just continues to go lower, and you've got some you've got to go back pretty many years to see on some of the classic 1917, I think.
13:00
SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah, yeah.
13:01
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, where how old were you back then?
13:04
SPEAKER_01: Come on now.
13:05
SPEAKER_00: I wasn't even in the crib, but cotton you saw surprised the market was higher than expected.
13:11
SPEAKER_00: That maybe changed in my judgment.
13:14
SPEAKER_00: Because in the weather in Texas, yes, uh, yes, it's it's the harvestable acres that I think is the key in both always in in the crops.
13:23
SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna we we've got many months to go through that.
13:26
SPEAKER_01: But we'll should we go over the corn chart?
13:28
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, there's your there's your percentage changes, and you can see in the heart of the belt it was down, but you know, look at uh you know some of the other states were were were were higher, you know, but in the heart of the corn belt, you saw Illinois down three percent, echoing uh uh Iowa and things like that.
13:49
SPEAKER_00: So again, not major surprises as far as I'm concerned on on that one.
13:54
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and yeah, just pretty typical.
13:57
SPEAKER_01: Like the I states are more minus three.
13:59
SPEAKER_01: So let's see what uh soybeans reveal.
14:02
SPEAKER_00: Look at you had pluses on there.
14:04
SPEAKER_00: You saw plus two for for Illinois, five percent increase in Iowa, and is that Minnesota, plus 18 percent.
14:12
SPEAKER_00: So again, but still not as uh as large of an increase as people thought because they were looking at the corn soybean price ratio, they were looking at the fertilizer impact, thinking uh even fewer corn acres and more soybean acres.
14:28
SPEAKER_00: That still may be the case, but we're gonna have to see the June acres report.
14:33
SPEAKER_00: No bombshell, no bombshell on this one.
14:35
SPEAKER_00: But uh wheat prospective plantings, look at that uh downturn here.
14:40
SPEAKER_00: This is just this is why a couple the lower plantings plus the the droughty conditions is is why we've had a fledgling bull market in wheat, despite overall bearish world fundamentals uh for wheat, because a lot of countries uh grill wheat.
15:00
SPEAKER_01: And that wheat chart is sorry, I went back to swimmings, but the wheat chart has so much red in there that just shows the markets working.
15:08
SPEAKER_01: I want to go to your picture.
15:10
SPEAKER_01: That's what happens when you take a commodity to such a bad price where you lose so much, like at one point, all the commodities look like you're gonna lose money this year.
15:20
SPEAKER_01: But when you lose so much, finally someone says, Uncle, and says, plant the commodity you can lose the least.
15:27
SPEAKER_01: And when I say that, people get pissed off.
15:29
SPEAKER_01: But that's why this wheat chart has all that red, Jim.
15:32
SPEAKER_00: It's the market working, and you can really tell the case later on.
15:36
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna have a little focus uh feature on rice, a significant drop in rice acres because it's a horrible situation in rice, it's a very expensive crop to put in, and with low prices and uh and low prices, uh, you're seeing the market, the market's working, Tommy.
15:56
SPEAKER_01: That's you know, basically about let's talk about cotton because I know you do a lot of speeches in the Delta.
16:01
SPEAKER_01: And oh, by the way, we had some really nice fan mail.
16:04
SPEAKER_01: You sent it to me about talk about that person who they they're part of a newsletter, four or five hundred people, and they said, Jim, we're gonna let everyone know yeah, these are very nice.
16:12
SPEAKER_00: Rice grow rice growers, and they wanted to send uh who do they listen to?
16:17
SPEAKER_00: They said they wanted to tell their their their former clients.
16:21
SPEAKER_00: So I said, Well, of course, of course.
16:24
SPEAKER_00: But you know, I go way back with rice, Tommy.
16:27
SPEAKER_00: I've done the rice annual convention I at least for 11 straight years, and and over a decade, you build relationships, and that's where you get to tone.
16:40
SPEAKER_00: I'm only as good as grassroots, but from an industry perspective, officials and companies and agribusiness and their analysts, but also from the farmer end.
16:50
SPEAKER_00: And this is why I pride myself in the grassroots.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: If farmers are are very leading edge in some of the things they see.
16:59
SPEAKER_00: And and so this always pleases me when I get uh emails like that.
17:03
SPEAKER_01: Let's talk cotton.
17:04
SPEAKER_01: It's the fabric of our lives.
17:06
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, look it down.
17:07
SPEAKER_00: And I think Texas, though, showed up four percent.
17:10
SPEAKER_00: It's we said they've had some harsh weather conditions.
17:14
SPEAKER_00: So I think we're gonna have to look at the harvestable crops later on this year, but we've got several months to go through those.
17:21
SPEAKER_00: And of course, now it's the how how is the crop getting planted faring?
17:26
SPEAKER_00: And Monday is the return of the crop progress report.
17:31
SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna have even more stuff to trade on, Tommy, again, as the as the market trades those individual numbers and the ratings of of the crops.
17:40
SPEAKER_01: Let's look at uh U.S.
17:42
SPEAKER_01: stocks report March 21st.
17:46
SPEAKER_01: Did did I mess that up?
17:48
SPEAKER_01: That was March 31st, right?
17:50
SPEAKER_01: Oh no, U.S.
17:51
SPEAKER_01: stocks as of March 1st.
17:52
SPEAKER_01: As of March 1, yeah.
17:54
SPEAKER_01: Right, right.
17:54
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's interesting because the data's always a little behind, and that that scares me a little bit.
17:59
SPEAKER_01: Let's go.
18:00
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it was released March 31.
18:02
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, basically, let's bottom line, corn large supplies had a little bearish tilt to it because stocks came in higher year over year, and generally they were at or above expectations.
18:14
SPEAKER_00: Uh, but it still showed it showed corn inventories near around 9 billion bushels.
18:19
SPEAKER_00: Uh it's critical to know the numbers because that's how analysts estimate the feed in residual use.
18:25
SPEAKER_00: That's the fudge factor, residual use.
18:28
SPEAKER_00: And uh there was uncertainty whether USDA's assume usage is actually being realized.
18:34
SPEAKER_00: It showed still there's big demand for corn.
18:38
SPEAKER_00: So that's why I think uh analysts are saying a downside is limited uh for corn as a result of this ferocious demand for that crop.
18:46
SPEAKER_00: But still market implications, a little bearish price uh pressure, large inventories will cap rallies, and it reinforces expectations for acreage shifts away from corn, especially with high fertilizer cost.
19:01
SPEAKER_00: Now, for soybeans, it showed balanced but and relatively supportive versus corn.
19:07
SPEAKER_00: Stocks were also higher year over year, but closer to trade expectations.
19:12
SPEAKER_00: There's a reason for that, Tommy.
19:14
SPEAKER_00: We have data checks on soybeans.
19:16
SPEAKER_00: We have exports, we have crush, etc.
19:18
SPEAKER_00: So while not easy, it's easier to come up with the stocks figure for soybeans.
19:24
SPEAKER_00: There's less burdensome surplus compared to corn, and the the demand backdrop, crush, biofuels remains uh quite supportive.
19:34
SPEAKER_00: So market implications neutral to slightly supportive relative to corn, and it does strengthen the soybean acreage story rising in 2026.
19:45
SPEAKER_00: So wheat showed adequate stocks, ongoing demand uh struggles.
19:50
SPEAKER_00: Uh wheat stocks were higher year over the year, year over year, confirming no supply shortage.
19:57
SPEAKER_00: It was neutral to bearish, it reinforces structural demand issues and global competition.
20:03
SPEAKER_00: Remember, as I said, a lot of countries grow wheat, and it also aligns with the trend of declining U.S.
20:11
SPEAKER_00: wheat acreage that we previously talked about.
20:14
SPEAKER_00: So, what's the big picture?
20:16
SPEAKER_00: All three crops showed comfortable supply levels.
20:19
SPEAKER_00: There was no bullish supply shock.
20:22
SPEAKER_00: Corn stood out to me as the most bearish due to the sheer volume of stocks.
20:26
SPEAKER_00: So I mean it's relatively stronger, and that's driving the acreage shifts.
20:31
SPEAKER_00: And wheat remains remained structurally weak, both supply and demand factors.
20:36
SPEAKER_00: Again, market implication, no bullish surprise.
20:39
SPEAKER_00: Report leaned bearish overall to me.
20:42
SPEAKER_00: Corn oversupply dominates the market sentiment.
20:45
SPEAKER_00: Acreage shifts, I think, will continue from corn into soybeans, were validated initially, maybe more ahead.
20:51
SPEAKER_00: It sets the tone, Tommy, for spring planning decisions still.
20:55
SPEAKER_00: The May Wazdi report that we'll see this Thursday, I think, will show some of the balance sheets adjustments as a result of this report.
21:06
SPEAKER_00: Price ceilings heading into the growing season.
21:09
SPEAKER_00: That's all encompassed in what we know from the grain stocks report.
21:13
SPEAKER_01: Right.
21:14
SPEAKER_01: And that's where we were a month ago.
21:17
SPEAKER_01: We continue to see good demand.
21:19
SPEAKER_01: We continue to see crude oil move up.
21:21
SPEAKER_01: There's, I think there's been enough energy released.
21:25
SPEAKER_01: Like, look at markets like energies.
21:27
SPEAKER_01: Look at I explained to folks, Jim, volatility is like water.
21:31
SPEAKER_01: It could be frozen, that's low volatility.
21:34
SPEAKER_01: It could be water, that's moving, and it could be steam, which is explosive.
21:39
SPEAKER_01: All three of those are H2O, right?
21:41
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's a good way to put it in.
21:42
SPEAKER_01: In three different states.
21:43
SPEAKER_01: That's how you explain volatility.
21:45
SPEAKER_01: Okay, I'll be here all week, folks.
21:47
SPEAKER_01: That's that's all I got.
21:48
SPEAKER_01: Now let's get to rice.
21:50
SPEAKER_01: U.S.
21:50
SPEAKER_01: rice look outlook.
21:51
SPEAKER_01: I got a nice little picture of that, I think.
21:53
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we like to focus on some of the crops that some other programs don't focus on to me.
21:59
SPEAKER_00: They're Midwest oriented sometimes, but rice acreage down sharply, tighter, you know, supply outlook.
22:07
SPEAKER_00: We were down.
22:09
SPEAKER_00: 18% on acres, Tommy, year over year.
22:12
SPEAKER_00: Wow.
22:12
SPEAKER_00: That was below expectations.
22:14
SPEAKER_00: The biggest declines were in the heart of the rice belt in the Delta.
22:18
SPEAKER_01: Function of the market.
22:18
SPEAKER_00: Get the price of the function of the markets.
22:21
SPEAKER_00: And the the loss per acre.
22:23
SPEAKER_00: Rice growers are not stupid.
22:25
SPEAKER_00: They're just saying, hey, I can't, I can't keep doing this.
22:28
SPEAKER_00: Soybeans were more profitable, high fertilizer costs.
22:31
SPEAKER_00: That's the Iran-related connection.
22:34
SPEAKER_00: Weak rice margins.
22:36
SPEAKER_00: It's bullish for rice prices.
22:38
SPEAKER_00: Futures are near$1140 to$11.50.
22:41
SPEAKER_00: That's at the resistance area, by the way.
22:43
SPEAKER_00: And it was offset, however, by still ample current stocks.
22:48
SPEAKER_00: I've had some rice growers tell me more than a few farmers have the last two crops, a portion of, you know, still around.
22:56
SPEAKER_00: But we saw the crop shift.
22:57
SPEAKER_00: Acres moving, some of the rice acres moving to soybeans primarily, cotton.
23:03
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
23:04
SPEAKER_00: The risk in that is that low survey response.
23:07
SPEAKER_00: Remember again, 37.6%.
23:09
SPEAKER_00: But weather and input cost could shift the acreage further.
23:13
SPEAKER_00: So we're going to have to see the June acreage report, fertilizer prices, export demand.
23:19
SPEAKER_00: What's the bottom line for rice?
23:21
SPEAKER_00: Bullish, but dependent on final acreage and demand.
23:25
SPEAKER_00: That's the rice story.
23:27
SPEAKER_01: That's that's unbelievable, all those things playing in the rice.
23:30
SPEAKER_01: I heard somebody told me that if you think we have a rice story here in America, on a percentage of what we grow for the world, it's very, very, very low.
23:42
SPEAKER_01: I can Google it.
23:43
SPEAKER_01: I don't want to embarrass myself and try to guess, but it's extremely low.
23:46
SPEAKER_01: If you want to watch how fertilizer could play into the markets, watch India.
23:51
SPEAKER_01: Doesn't India consume a ton of rice?
23:55
SPEAKER_00: Yes, yes.
23:56
SPEAKER_00: And and I think the US should pump out more rice food aid uh because if we've got burdensome supplies, I think they USDA needs to boost the quantity of uh of uh rice going out for for food aid, as long as we don't replace normal uh commercial transactions.
24:15
SPEAKER_00: But in the past that's been the case.
24:17
SPEAKER_00: I just think USDA needs to do uh more food aid, and I fully expect that in the months ahead, Tommy.
24:24
SPEAKER_01: Let's go with the war uh with Iran.
24:27
SPEAKER_01: This thing is the uh My goodness.
24:28
SPEAKER_00: Since we were last talked, of course, President Trump gave the st gave the the nationally televised address.
24:35
SPEAKER_00: The point the thing I'd like to point out about that is Trump only spoke for 19 minutes.
24:41
SPEAKER_00: I didn't think he had it in him to speak that little.
24:45
SPEAKER_01: You move crude about$19 in 19 minutes per minute.
24:50
SPEAKER_00: But that said he was on point that he wanted a certain thing to say.
24:55
SPEAKER_00: Now, in late breaking news, he just put out that if that Strait of Harmuz doesn't open up in 48 hours, Iran's gonna feel, and this is its term, feel hell.
25:07
SPEAKER_01: So that's late breaking news that 48 hours would be 10 o'clock on Monday, because I was hoping I was hoping he doesn't do anything on over Easter.
25:18
SPEAKER_01: I really hope the world gets uh the Easter holiday.
25:20
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it might have to do with something that I went home short of crude oil contract, too.
25:23
SPEAKER_01: That is hopefully be a quiet weekend.
25:25
SPEAKER_00: But uh let's go through the bottom line, Tommy, that he said in his address.
25:29
SPEAKER_00: What did we learn?
25:31
SPEAKER_00: He signaled the final phase is in for the Iran conflict.
25:35
SPEAKER_00: Now I know traders thought they wanted the end of it right away.
25:38
SPEAKER_00: That's how traders are, but he of course it he said two to three more weeks.
25:43
SPEAKER_00: He framed the end game, he wants rapid Iranian concessions or major escalation.
25:50
SPEAKER_00: He did not offer a ceasefire uh agreement, so it's being oppression-driven strategy.
25:57
SPEAKER_00: Now, you saw over the weekend Iran downed some some U.S.
26:02
SPEAKER_00: missiles.
26:03
SPEAKER_00: So they're not they're not totally pilots, too.
26:07
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, are we lost two two one one recovered and they're still searching for the other one?
26:13
SPEAKER_00: Hopefully they they find him.
26:16
SPEAKER_00: So there's been over 11,000 targets struck already by the U.S.
26:22
SPEAKER_00: and Israel.
26:23
SPEAKER_00: I think from based on other officials' quotes in the past, they said they had 13,500 targets.
26:31
SPEAKER_00: So they're getting near the end.
26:34
SPEAKER_00: Now, uh Iran's Navy and Air Force and missile systems are largely destroyed, but as we saw over the weekend, it's not totally destroyed.
26:44
SPEAKER_00: Plus, you can have these shoulders, these uh individuals can shoot down a plane, and and we saw that happening.
26:53
SPEAKER_00: And but the U.S.
26:54
SPEAKER_00: is not dependent on a deal to end operations, and so it could unilaterally conclude from Trump's once his goals are met.
27:03
SPEAKER_00: And I think they're getting closer.
27:06
SPEAKER_00: So the key expectations of the U.S.
27:10
SPEAKER_00: for Iran abandon the nuclear and military ambitions, restore stability to global energy flows.
27:17
SPEAKER_00: That's reopening the heart harm muse, and accept weakened regional influence.
27:22
SPEAKER_00: That's what the U.S.
27:23
SPEAKER_00: is saying they want.
27:25
SPEAKER_00: So we have an escalation warning next two to three weeks, where Trump has threatened potential strikes on power grids, oil production, and export facilities.
27:36
SPEAKER_00: That would be a major escalation.
27:39
SPEAKER_00: And uh this is Trump's words.
27:41
SPEAKER_00: He warned Iran they could be pushed back, quote, to the stone ages.
27:46
SPEAKER_00: So what we heard was no fixed timeline or off-ramp.
27:50
SPEAKER_00: The market wanted it, they didn't get it, and that's why you saw that dramatic rally in crude oil futures.
27:57
SPEAKER_00: Escalation was used as an enforcement mechanism by President Trump, and he he framed the conflict as short but undefined duration.
28:09
SPEAKER_00: Now, the global message to our allies, Trump said Europe and Asia are he urged them to reopen the Strait of Harmuz.
28:18
SPEAKER_00: The U.S.
28:19
SPEAKER_00: will help, but they have more to gain from the reopening of the Strait of Harmuz.
28:23
SPEAKER_01: I'm just gonna ask you who's getting it the worst.
28:25
SPEAKER_01: I think it's Europe, right?
28:26
SPEAKER_01: Europe, for sure.
28:27
SPEAKER_01: Europe for sure.
28:28
SPEAKER_01: Explain that a little bit.
28:29
SPEAKER_00: And they've been passive because well, they didn't take the the the the flexibility.
28:35
SPEAKER_00: Remember, they moved away big time, Germany and other countries from nuclear energy, and you talk about a bad turn a few years ago, and they didn't take the steps that the U.S.
28:47
SPEAKER_00: did.
28:48
SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
28:48
SPEAKER_00: We're truly almost totally independent.
28:52
SPEAKER_00: And look at where we'd be in our gasoline price situation.
28:57
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's it's it's over four dollars a gallon right now.
29:01
SPEAKER_01: Makes me feel good is that this guy's in the White House, Doug Bergum, because I've met him several times in North Dakota, former governor of North Dakota, and that young man understands the potential America and particularly just one state North Dakota has of how much natural resources we have.
29:19
SPEAKER_01: And they flip the switch from everything Biden said we'll never do, we're never doing that, put up solar panels to hell with that, take down those solar panels and windmills, you're out.
29:28
SPEAKER_01: It's it's all about old school oil, correct?
29:30
SPEAKER_00: Yes, and he can implement Trump's drilled baby drill from a host of reasons, primarily in accelerating the permitting process at the national level, and he deals uh he jawbones with individual states, including, by the way, California.
29:46
SPEAKER_00: So where are we at?
29:47
SPEAKER_00: U.S.
29:48
SPEAKER_00: is monitoring uh Iran via satellites in real time.
29:52
SPEAKER_00: Any nuclear rebuild on Iran's part in the future would trigger immediate response.
29:58
SPEAKER_00: This is what Trump's uh telling him.
30:00
SPEAKER_00: He gave him a clear ultimatum concede or and the conflicts winds down, or if they refuse, economic and infrastructure devastation will escalate.
30:09
SPEAKER_00: So that's that speaks high volatility still, even though we're we're at the beginning of the end, it's still volatile because we don't know the end zone, Tommy.
30:21
SPEAKER_00: So that's where we're at now.
30:22
SPEAKER_01: All right, let's go to happier subjects, Mexican cattle.
30:26
SPEAKER_00: USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins had a speech last Saturday, and we mentioned in the podcast to listen closely to what she's saying, and uh, she admitted USDA is weighing the phased reopening of the US-Mexico cattle border.
30:42
SPEAKER_00: And she did signal at least a decision timeline on that is late April, late this month.
30:50
SPEAKER_00: No formal announcement date, however, has been confirmed.
30:54
SPEAKER_00: Now, she and other our of our sources indicated whenever it happens, it'll be a phased approach.
31:01
SPEAKER_00: It's like we discussed three months ago, Tommy.
31:04
SPEAKER_00: They're coming back to that a plan.
31:06
SPEAKER_00: It'll be a phased approach, not a full border reopening.
31:10
SPEAKER_00: The initial access will be limited to what I've been told to one or two ports in in Arizona, because that's further away.
31:19
SPEAKER_00: So it'll be risk-based framework, as well as it should, that'll guide USDA's decision.
31:24
SPEAKER_00: And they're going to focus on containment and monitoring capacity.
31:29
SPEAKER_00: The Arizona ports will lead the initial reopening.
31:33
SPEAKER_00: And some of the examples, Arizona listeners will know this Douglas and Aqua Prieta.
31:40
SPEAKER_00: And they were selected due to the distance from the current disease threats.
31:46
SPEAKER_00: So early flows are likely going to be funneled through the western hubs.
31:52
SPEAKER_00: So New World Screwworms still remains a primary concern of the US and USDA is expanding surveillance and sterile fly programs, and the reopening is going to be contingent on disease containments.
32:07
SPEAKER_00: But here's the kicker: what's the price implications of this?
32:11
SPEAKER_00: The White House wants more cattle coming across because they want to lower beef prices, not just hamburger prices, beef prices.
32:20
SPEAKER_00: But I'll tell you, I surveyed a number of traders and analysts.
32:24
SPEAKER_00: They don't see much initial impact because it's going to take a while, Tommy, to for this phase 10 to actually work.
32:32
SPEAKER_00: And USDA is already projecting beef and veal prices up a little over 10% this calendar year.
32:39
SPEAKER_00: And that's the largest increase, by the way, since 2014.
32:43
SPEAKER_00: So limited port access, Arizona focused, geographic risk targeting, strict animal requirements for imports, which there should be.
32:53
SPEAKER_00: But what's the key risk ahead?
32:56
SPEAKER_00: What if there's a new screw worm case near the U.S.
33:00
SPEAKER_00: border?
33:00
SPEAKER_00: What happens?
33:01
SPEAKER_00: Will that immediately halt or reverse the reopening?
33:05
SPEAKER_00: Question mark.
33:06
SPEAKER_00: So there's high sensitivity to this issue, even if we have an announcement of a phased reopening.
33:13
SPEAKER_00: That's about the best we can offer right now.
33:16
SPEAKER_00: A phased in.
33:26
SPEAKER_01: See how this uh ties in.
33:28
SPEAKER_01: We got the old McCool.
33:29
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, mandatory country of origin labeling.
33:32
SPEAKER_00: It's back and being pushed by none other than a Republican cabinet member, who you usually don't see doing that, in this case, Brooke Rollins.
33:42
SPEAKER_00: She framed a mandatory country of origin labeling as a consumer transparency issue, not a market intervention.
33:50
SPEAKER_00: Now, Canada and Mexico would have disagreements with that, but Rollins said Americans should know where their food comes from.
33:58
SPEAKER_00: And she signaled renewed U.S.
34:00
SPEAKER_00: interest in this very sensitive and long-debated policy.
34:05
SPEAKER_00: Now, I think it's aligning with the broader Trump administration focus on domestic production.
34:12
SPEAKER_00: But to be blunt, the U.S.
34:14
SPEAKER_00: beef industry is divided on mandatory country of origin labeling.
34:18
SPEAKER_00: The supporters say it'll boost demand for U.S.
34:21
SPEAKER_00: raised livestock.
34:22
SPEAKER_00: The opponents say it raises cost and trade concerns.
34:28
SPEAKER_00: Here's the most important thing listeners should know.
34:32
SPEAKER_00: The policy change would require congressional approval.
34:37
SPEAKER_00: So she can urge a mandatory country of origin labeling, but Congress has to go along.
34:44
SPEAKER_00: And anything sensitive is going to have a hard time getting through this visceral Congress where both parties fight against each other all the time.
34:55
SPEAKER_00: But it shows a GOP difference here from the past.
35:11
SPEAKER_00: And they want to put a stronger focus on producer protection.
35:15
SPEAKER_00: Now, what about Canada and Mexico?
35:17
SPEAKER_00: They're likely to challenge anything officially announced.
35:22
SPEAKER_00: Reason they did it in the past.
35:24
SPEAKER_00: And they went to the WTO and USMCA rules.
35:29
SPEAKER_00: So the prior case for Canada and Mexico, the WTO allowed$1 billion in tariffs on U.S.
35:38
SPEAKER_00: goods.
35:39
SPEAKER_00: So U.S.
35:40
SPEAKER_00: exports could be targeted again.
35:42
SPEAKER_00: This is longer term, Tommy, not immediate.
35:46
SPEAKER_00: But as I said, this takes Congress to approve it.
35:50
SPEAKER_00: Bottom line, however, mandatory country of origin labeling could trigger a broad trade conflict with tariffs and supply chain disruptions if not handled uh properly.
36:05
SPEAKER_01: Excellent.
36:05
SPEAKER_01: Moving along, EPA is the next subject, and I have a headline for that.
36:09
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
36:10
SPEAKER_00: Well, you don't want to spend too much time on this.
36:12
SPEAKER_00: EPA just filed their set two rule for the renewable fuel standard program in the Federal Register.
36:19
SPEAKER_00: Now, what's the next step?
36:21
SPEAKER_00: They're targeting the final 2028 rule by October 31st this year, and their proposed rule is probably going to be released in early June, is what we're saying.
36:34
SPEAKER_00: The only market, a lingering market issue here is what the import rin reduction.
36:41
SPEAKER_00: You'll recall the imported biofuels and feed stocks are going to receive only 50% of the REN value.
36:48
SPEAKER_00: But that policy is affected beginning with the 2028 compliance year or shortly thereafter.
36:56
SPEAKER_00: Now it's designed to prioritize U.S.
36:58
SPEAKER_00: energy security and domestic feedstocks.
37:01
SPEAKER_00: Now, EPA is still developing those implementation details.
37:05
SPEAKER_00: So stakeholder engagement is going to be expected on this issue.
37:09
SPEAKER_00: Here's the open question: is EPA going to change this to better align with the 45Z, the clean fuel production credit, sustainable aviation fuel?
37:21
SPEAKER_00: Because a delayed implementation of this provision, what the market is telling us, it's going to incentivize near-term import surge.
37:31
SPEAKER_00: In other words, they're going to bring in more foreign feedstocks to use before 2028, Tommy.
37:37
SPEAKER_00: So there could be a potential reshuffling of global feedstock flows ahead of this policy shift.
37:45
SPEAKER_00: And you know markets, you know, traders, if they think something's going to be shut off, they'll import more before it shuts off.
37:52
SPEAKER_01: Speaking of traders and markets, folks, if you're out there and you do watch the markets, you definitely probably want to put December 27 corn on your quote board because some of the implications of this fertilizer price may have not affected us in D26, but this story may linger to 27 in 28 in the border trade.
38:12
SPEAKER_01: Jim shaking his head.
38:13
SPEAKER_01: Yes, I actually said something he agreed with.
38:15
SPEAKER_01: Go ahead.
38:16
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and it's more so in 2027, as you get closer to that decision, or as we get closer to whether or not EPA is going to announce uh any change in this preliminary June for 28 rule and October no later than the end of October.
38:34
SPEAKER_00: So this is a lingering market-sensitive issue that we we won't drop in our podcast, Tommy.
38:40
SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about budgets, my friend.
38:43
SPEAKER_00: Oh, well, here's the bottom line on any White House proposal.
38:48
SPEAKER_00: The administration proposals proposes, Congress disposes.
38:52
SPEAKER_00: So normally Congress just says, okay, at least we know your priorities, White House, whether it's a Democrat or Republican administration.
39:01
SPEAKER_00: But Trump unveiled his budget Friday, and overall, huge boost for defense.
39:06
SPEAKER_00: I'm not going to get into actual numbers, and 10% cuts elsewhere.
39:10
SPEAKER_00: And USDA saw some big cuts, but actually an increase for funding the relocations of USDA, some USDA offices and employees outside of Washington.
39:24
SPEAKER_00: EPA would see a dramatic cut as they continue to whittle down the number of employees at the Environmental Protection Agency.
39:34
SPEAKER_00: And trade, it clearly showed the markings of the Trump trade policy.
39:40
SPEAKER_00: That's the bottom line.
39:42
SPEAKER_00: While you don't totally dismiss the Trump's budget proposal, because it shows how they will continue to operate or want to operate the various functions of government, Congress is going to have the final say on spending.
39:57
SPEAKER_00: That's the bottom line.
39:58
SPEAKER_01: Well, we touched very, very good perspectives on that.
40:02
SPEAKER_01: We touched on fertilizer, but now we're actually going to get into it.
40:06
SPEAKER_01: Let's do it.
40:06
SPEAKER_00: Rollins keeps on saying she's going to announce plans to increase supply because that's what the issue is.
40:13
SPEAKER_00: It's the supply.
40:28
SPEAKER_00: Rollins has said about 80% of farmers had their fertilizer needs covered prior to the US-Iran-Israel conflict.
40:38
SPEAKER_00: Now that's an estimate, but that means 20% is still a lot of farmers who are having to pay sky-high fertilizer prices.
41:17
SPEAKER_00: Remember, Stephen Vaden told us this review, the mandatory review, five years has to be, they have to be reviewed.
41:25
SPEAKER_00: That wasn't going to be concluded until the end of summer, if not early fall.
41:30
SPEAKER_00: So that could give some more Moroccan fertilizers.
41:33
SPEAKER_00: Of course, that's interlinked, however, with the Strait of Harmoo's.
41:37
SPEAKER_00: Some of the shipping is so important.
41:40
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, there we go.
41:41
SPEAKER_00: So you can see this is connected.
41:44
SPEAKER_00: And again, mainly for the 2027 crop and future, we've seen both world fertilizer companies.
41:53
SPEAKER_00: Remember what Vaden told us on BHP, an Australian-based company in Canada, is investing$15 billion.
42:02
SPEAKER_00: And some of their new product will come up, some, not all, on stream beginning for the 2027 crop season.
42:10
SPEAKER_00: A number of U.S.
42:11
SPEAKER_00: companies are also going to increase and delve into the increase in fertilizer production.
42:20
SPEAKER_00: So that's the market working, Tommy, but it's going to take time.
42:24
SPEAKER_00: It'll take probably one to two years to really see the increase in supply.
42:29
SPEAKER_00: And Purdue University has a report.
42:31
SPEAKER_00: You should Google it.
42:32
SPEAKER_00: Bottom line, they're basically saying what we just said, but they do it in a succinct way.
42:37
SPEAKER_00: So Google the Purdue University report.
42:40
SPEAKER_00: I think it's a good one.
42:42
SPEAKER_00: And if you get my updates, we have a link.
42:44
SPEAKER_00: We have a link for the report.
42:46
SPEAKER_00: I think we're at we're at the conclusion.
42:50
SPEAKER_01: So the markets were closed Friday, kind of.
42:52
SPEAKER_01: SP 500 was open.
42:54
SPEAKER_01: Crude oil was not open, metals were not open.
42:57
SPEAKER_01: They did open stocks and bonds at five o'clock on Thursday night, which would be Friday's trade.
43:04
SPEAKER_01: And what what what did the jobs report say?
43:07
SPEAKER_00: It dramatically beat expectations.
43:15
SPEAKER_00: That's a big miss.
43:16
SPEAKER_00: But as you said before we went on the air, Tommy, it used to be these monthly reports were very market sensitive.
43:23
SPEAKER_00: But now, over the last few years, with major revisions of both up and down, and the weakness of the survey, frankly, it's not as market sensitive as it used to be, but it does signal.
43:36
SPEAKER_00: But it's a rebound from the February weakness.
43:39
SPEAKER_00: It signals stabilization of the U.S.
43:42
SPEAKER_00: economy, not deterioration.
43:45
SPEAKER_00: The three-month average, that's what you look at.
43:48
SPEAKER_00: What's the average over three months?
43:50
SPEAKER_00: 68,000 jobs.
43:52
SPEAKER_00: Modest but steady growth trend.
43:54
SPEAKER_00: Unemployment actually dipped to 4.3%.
43:58
SPEAKER_00: It says labor, the market remains resilient.
44:01
SPEAKER_00: Wage growth moderated, just up 0.2%, but 3.5% year over year.
44:07
SPEAKER_00: That's uh Above the rate of inflation, so that's good.
44:11
SPEAKER_00: People are earning more, keeping more.
44:13
SPEAKER_00: The participation slipped to 61.9%, the lowest since 2021.
44:21
SPEAKER_00: So we saw uh the on the sector highlights, uh, construction, transportation, federal jobs saw a minus 18,000, down 355,000 since October 2024 for federal jobs.
44:39
SPEAKER_00: So we've got the private industry gaining as opposed to the government.
44:43
SPEAKER_00: I I really like that.
44:45
SPEAKER_00: Long-term unemployment was elevated, 1.8 million.
44:50
SPEAKER_00: What's the market reaction?
44:51
SPEAKER_00: The 10-year yields uh rose initially to 4.35%.
44:55
SPEAKER_00: What's that mean for the Fed?
44:57
SPEAKER_00: It reinforces higher for longer rate outlook.
45:00
SPEAKER_00: No change in the Fed outlook.
45:02
SPEAKER_00: That's a clear implication of this one.
45:06
SPEAKER_00: Uh shows strong labor reducing urgency for rate cuts, and inflation is still there, sticky for food, especially tariff and energy driven.
45:16
SPEAKER_00: And it remains the Fed priority.
45:18
SPEAKER_00: And bottom line, labor market is slowing but still expanding.
45:22
SPEAKER_00: It complicates the Fed path.
45:24
SPEAKER_00: Growth schooling versus inflation risks.
45:27
SPEAKER_00: That's the bottom line.
45:29
SPEAKER_01: Very interesting there.
45:31
SPEAKER_01: The uh so much information packed in that jobs number and just quietly got released while most of us were just taking, you know, the day off.
45:39
SPEAKER_01: Interesting.
45:40
SPEAKER_01: It used to just be the super bowl of numbers, Jim.
45:43
SPEAKER_01: All right, yeah, it was.
45:45
SPEAKER_01: That's when we were on the bond pits and all that other stuff.
45:47
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, this is interesting.
45:49
SPEAKER_01: We you know, folks, if you see during the show, we post up different pictures of people.
45:53
SPEAKER_01: We've now had to pull a couple.
45:55
SPEAKER_01: Like there, we no longer use Christy Gnome picture, and we got to pull another one of this.
46:00
SPEAKER_01: Is like picture White House bingo here.
46:03
SPEAKER_01: Trump fires Bondy replacement question mark.
46:06
SPEAKER_01: Who's next?
46:07
SPEAKER_01: Question mark.
46:07
SPEAKER_01: I think we actually our little buddy Lee Zeldin's been up to that, right?
46:12
SPEAKER_00: One of the rumored replacements because Trump really likes him.
46:17
SPEAKER_00: By the way, he was a lawyer in his 20s, younger, younger days.
46:22
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
46:23
SPEAKER_00: But this surprised some people when he got rid of Bondi.
46:28
SPEAKER_00: But he said his her time has come.
46:30
SPEAKER_00: So uh the short term, he's got the uh uh a other high-ranking official, her, her, her, her deputy, by the way, for an interim.
46:41
SPEAKER_00: Maybe he'll be maybe he'll be uh Todd Blanche is the is the name.
46:45
SPEAKER_00: He's the former personal defense attorney for Trump, and really is but was Bondi's you know deputy as acting attorney general.
46:54
SPEAKER_00: But other people, as you said, Lee Zeldon is the top contender, he's a close Trump ally.
46:59
SPEAKER_00: Others are Janine Pirrell, a longtime Trump supporter.
47:04
SPEAKER_01: You know, right?
47:06
SPEAKER_00: Be on Fox News, yeah, yeah, and Mike Lee occasionally mentioned as a more traditional conservative option.
47:12
SPEAKER_00: But the next step is you have the New York Times and other publications saying this could sit this could signal a broader tension inside the White House between loyalty, legal credibility, and political message messaging.
47:27
SPEAKER_00: So is this a sign of a broader cabinet shakeup?
47:31
SPEAKER_00: Now, not confirms, but the scuttle butt is that officials reportedly under scrutiny include Howard Lutnick, the commerce uh secretary, Laurie Chavez uh de Remer, that's labor, and Tulsi Gabbard.
47:47
SPEAKER_00: Although while she's criticized for past foreign policy views, Trump went out of his way the other day to publicly back the intelligent person, Tulsi Gabbard.
47:58
SPEAKER_00: So they have to previously he removed Christine Gnome in a separate move.
48:03
SPEAKER_00: So that's already that started the process.
48:05
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we well, it's White House shuffle that that that happens.
48:10
SPEAKER_01: Real quick before we end the show, I just can't express to people how excited I am about our new partnership with Trade the News.
48:17
SPEAKER_01: Trade the News has uh provided all staff and uh brokers, traders, and analysts here with trade the news.
48:23
SPEAKER_01: And it's it's interesting how that came up.
48:26
SPEAKER_01: Jim is sending me stuff all the time, and I'm like, who's gonna have who's gonna tell Jim that I had that 15 minutes ago?
48:35
SPEAKER_01: And I don't I'm like, I don't want to upset Mr.
48:40
SPEAKER_00: I'm like, Oh, let me tell you.
48:42
SPEAKER_00: I'll send the shit I'll do it.
48:43
SPEAKER_00: I'll upset him.
48:44
SPEAKER_01: I'll upset him.
48:45
SPEAKER_00: I said pride, Tommy.
48:47
SPEAKER_00: I need I need all the help I can get.
48:49
SPEAKER_01: I said, everything you're sending me, I had 20 minutes ago on Trade the News.
48:53
SPEAKER_01: He's like, Well, why don't I have trade the news?
48:55
SPEAKER_01: So I called my folks over at Trade the News.
48:57
SPEAKER_01: I have been a client at Trade the News for over 25 years.
48:59
SPEAKER_01: I know this sounds like an infomercial, and maybe it is, but Trade the News said, let's do a partnership, let's do something where you talk uh that you use trade the news daily for your own trading.
49:09
SPEAKER_01: And uh it's interesting because when I'm here at the office at Nesbig, they have Bloomberg terminals, they have Reuters terminals, and my squawk box at Trade the News will say something and and I'll say I'll trade it and react off of it, and then it comes off on Bloomberg, and they're yelling at the top of the lungs.
49:25
SPEAKER_01: This just happened.
49:26
SPEAKER_01: I'm like, yeah, a minute ago, that's old news.
49:29
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and well, it's a info commercial because it's information and it works, Tommy.
49:35
SPEAKER_00: And number two, the credibility of any news service is is renewals, and what you just said, if you've renewed them for over 20 years, that's the report card for this service right there.
49:49
SPEAKER_01: Before I was married, before I had kids, before oh god, I'll tell you a story.
49:54
SPEAKER_01: I remember trade the news once was yelling.
49:57
SPEAKER_01: Remember when they realized Enron was a Ponzi scheme and skilling and all that stuff?
50:02
SPEAKER_01: I remember when Enron went bad.
50:04
SPEAKER_01: I had it before anyone.
50:06
SPEAKER_01: I I mean there's so many things that I could think about trading with them with.
50:09
SPEAKER_01: Obviously, 9-11, horrible, but they kept going.
50:14
SPEAKER_01: Just a really great, great company.
50:16
SPEAKER_01: And what I do, and I think I told the folks at Trade the News this, but at my home, when I had my basement remodeled, my basement's a full-blown trading floor.
50:26
SPEAKER_01: I had speakers put in the ceiling, which isn't that uncommon anymore.
50:29
SPEAKER_01: But I have trade the news going through my whole house system.
50:32
SPEAKER_01: So if I go get a cup of coffee and something happens, I can hear trade the news.
50:36
SPEAKER_01: I know you guys probably think I'm a geek, and Jim's probably calling the wiring guy right now to do it at his house.
50:42
SPEAKER_01: He probably hasn't.
50:43
SPEAKER_01: But uh all right.
50:45
SPEAKER_01: With that, let's uh Papa Bear take us home with some good news.
50:49
SPEAKER_00: We've got a continued good demand for corn, both from the export market and the biofuels market.
50:55
SPEAKER_00: We have more details of what now we have some some known quantities on the renewable fuel standard program that were farmer friendly.
51:05
SPEAKER_00: We've got the planting intentions report and grain stocks out of the way.
51:09
SPEAKER_00: So now we're gonna trade weather.
51:11
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna trade crop development.
51:13
SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna be off to the races if this fledgling drought situation continues in the United States.
51:20
SPEAKER_00: That's really the bottom line, Tommy.
51:22
SPEAKER_01: Weather and war, huh, brother?
51:24
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, weather and war.
51:25
SPEAKER_01: Happy Easter, everyone.