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Super Bowl LVIII Recap · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five.
0:13
Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.
0:14
Speaker 1: Today is our Super Bowl fifty eight betting recap and,
0:19
Speaker 1: by the way, our Super Bowl fifty nine matchup preview,
0:26
Speaker 1: at least what we think it might be. I am
0:29
Speaker 1: Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. In
0:32
Speaker 1: the spirit of the show, as I just alluded to.
0:35
Speaker 2: Simon and I will do what we always do.
0:36
Speaker 1: We will give you some takeaways on our leans thoughts
0:40
Speaker 1: strategies for betting twenty twenty four NFL futures. Believe it
0:46
Speaker 1: or not, it's never too early to start thinking about
0:50
Speaker 1: all of that goodness. Plus, we will share our thoughts
0:52
Speaker 1: on the big game, expected, the unexpected, the triumph's mistakes.
0:56
Speaker 1: The last game of another NFL season is in the books.
1:00
Speaker 1: Later in the show, will bring on our superstar who
1:04
Speaker 1: has more stats about the greatness and what we are
1:07
Speaker 1: actually witnessing with Patrick Mahomes Director of Research, Evan Abrams.
1:12
Speaker 1: He's going to provide all the context we need before
1:16
Speaker 1: we get to any of that. Let's bring in my cohes,
1:18
Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, Michael Padre, professional Better, Simon Hunter.
1:22
Speaker 2: Hello, Simon.
1:25
Speaker 3: Chad, what a weekend, brother, dude.
1:29
Speaker 1: We're going to get to it, because we freaking nailed it,
1:32
Speaker 1: like settled on a side, settled on a lien for
1:35
Speaker 1: the total, did not get distracted. We're going to dig
1:38
Speaker 1: into all that lost so much more. I want to
1:43
Speaker 1: make a small point. Something circular happened yesterday, a little
1:48
Speaker 1: bit of a circular moment. As anyone who was listening
1:51
Speaker 1: to the podcast knows. We have talked about Mitch Drubisky
1:56
Speaker 1: so often when he was.
1:57
Speaker 2: The quarterback of the Bears.
1:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I would always make a point. Mitch Trubisky
2:03
Speaker 1: was someone the Bears traded up to get. They didn't
2:06
Speaker 1: draft Patrick Mahomes, they didn't go for Deshaun Watson in
2:10
Speaker 1: that draft. They traded up to get Mitch Trubisky. On Monday,
2:15
Speaker 1: the day after Patrick Mahomes won his third Super Bowl
2:18
Speaker 1: title and third Super Bowl MVP, the only quarterback drafted
2:22
Speaker 1: ahead of him, Mitch Trubisky in twenty seventeen, was released
2:30
Speaker 1: by his third NFL team. Reminder, the Bears traded up
2:38
Speaker 1: to get Mitch Trubisky number two. Overall, that felt very
2:43
Speaker 1: full circle to me. Here we are seven years later,
2:47
Speaker 1: we're talking about the Bears having to draft a quarterback,
2:51
Speaker 1: mich Trubisy getting released by his thirteen within twenty four
2:54
Speaker 1: hours of Patrick Mahomes winning his third Super Bowl.
2:59
Speaker 3: Now you're sick in the head, Chad who talks about
3:01
Speaker 3: mister Bisky the day after the Super Bowl? You are
3:03
Speaker 3: truly sick in the head. Only you would bring him
3:05
Speaker 3: up today.
3:06
Speaker 1: So when I looked at when I looked at the
3:08
Speaker 1: list of people drafted ahead of Patrick Mahomes, in addition
3:13
Speaker 1: to Mitrubisky, Miles Garrett, you can explain it also drafted
3:18
Speaker 1: that year John Ross receiver by the Bangles ahead of
3:23
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, Solomon Thomas from the Niners, Corey Davis receiver
3:28
Speaker 1: drafted by the Titans, Leonard Fournett drafted by the Jags.
3:34
Speaker 2: Mike Williams from the Chargers.
3:36
Speaker 1: All of these teams in twenty seventeen probably were thinking
3:39
Speaker 1: we need a quarterback, but they decided not to draft
3:43
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes.
3:44
Speaker 3: No, he's a miracle though no one saw this coming.
3:47
Speaker 3: Sam is the same with Purdy, the guy who played against.
3:49
Speaker 3: Neither of these guys you ever saw coming, even Mahomes
3:52
Speaker 3: if you go back and watch his college career. No,
3:55
Speaker 3: one was ever going to take him at number one,
3:57
Speaker 3: and Chad just said it. The dude felt that pick
3:59
Speaker 3: ten would will always be the craziest part of it.
4:01
Speaker 3: Where it's like that team, even their I remember their
4:04
Speaker 3: GM talking about because they had Alex Smith on the team,
4:06
Speaker 3: everyone was attacking them. Why are you trading up to
4:08
Speaker 3: the tenth pick over to Shawn Watson? Why are you
4:11
Speaker 3: moving up above taking this guy above Watson who's a
4:15
Speaker 3: national champ, And it's just crazy these guys. Again, in life,
4:20
Speaker 3: it's good to think different, and the Chiefs are the
4:23
Speaker 3: best example of that. They saw something no one else
4:26
Speaker 3: could see. And even Andy Reeds in his wildest dreams,
4:30
Speaker 3: they did not see this kid turning what he's into.
4:33
Speaker 3: So yeah, I can't wait to dive into it. Brother.
4:35
Speaker 1: We are going to dive into the context of how
4:37
Speaker 1: great he is as a reminder and how great we are,
4:40
Speaker 1: by the way, for betting on him because of how
4:42
Speaker 1: great he is as a reminder. The Favorite podcast is
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5:35
Speaker 2: Okay, Simon.
5:39
Speaker 1: For two weeks, we have been saying Chiefs as dogs
5:43
Speaker 1: plus two and a half plus two. Evan even told
5:47
Speaker 1: us if we're gonna bet on the Chiefs, bet on
5:50
Speaker 1: the Chiefs to win, and bet them to win by
5:52
Speaker 1: a field goal, because we were going to see that
5:56
Speaker 1: teams in that position when you do win, you tend
5:59
Speaker 1: to win by field goal or more. A lot of
6:03
Speaker 1: noise out there from the wise guys. For sure, we
6:07
Speaker 1: settled on it. We feel good about it, Under and
6:11
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. This game raised so many questions to me
6:13
Speaker 1: about some really interesting important topics of betting. First and
6:16
Speaker 1: I want your take on this, how to power rate
6:19
Speaker 1: when we get to the playoffs. San Francisco was the
6:22
Speaker 1: dominant team all season long. The Chiefs were clearly a
6:26
Speaker 1: team that was much better in the last five weeks
6:28
Speaker 1: of the season. Bookmakers did not account for that, like
6:32
Speaker 1: maybe the game should have been closer to opening it one, right?
6:37
Speaker 1: Why can't better as a bookmakers adjust more quickly to
6:40
Speaker 1: account for sort of an end of the season improvement
6:43
Speaker 1: and evolution.
6:46
Speaker 3: I let'ld say first, Matt Mitchell hit the damn music
6:49
Speaker 3: one last time? Uh yeah, Chad, that was the dream.
7:08
Speaker 3: The way we broke down the game, everything we said
7:11
Speaker 3: it literally went exactly how we talked about it. And
7:13
Speaker 3: that's as a better when you're investing heavy And I
7:17
Speaker 3: tell people all the time, Week one is my second
7:19
Speaker 3: biggest week, the biggest week of any professional any year.
7:23
Speaker 3: Will always be the super Bowl, because it's never easier
7:26
Speaker 3: to get money down. It's no book will say no
7:28
Speaker 3: to any bet I want to make. They will take. Again,
7:31
Speaker 3: this is talking side in total props. It's it's a joke.
7:34
Speaker 3: You're going to get pennies down, But on side in totals,
7:37
Speaker 3: I could put as much money as I wanted down
7:39
Speaker 3: on that under like the forty seven and a half
7:41
Speaker 3: hung for two and a half weeks, never aendying amount
7:44
Speaker 3: of money could be poured into it. They didn't move it.
7:45
Speaker 3: Same with the Chiefs, Chad. That was the craziest part.
7:47
Speaker 3: All that money kept coming in and the books. Again,
7:51
Speaker 3: these guys are smart. There's a really reason these casinos exist.
7:55
Speaker 3: But they got caught. They thought they were so smart
7:57
Speaker 3: hanging that number, and they were happy to take that
8:00
Speaker 3: Chiefs money because they liked their position. I think it's
8:02
Speaker 3: something mean. You were going to talk about how the
8:04
Speaker 3: models can account for what mahomes can do, and the
8:08
Speaker 3: books got caught. I think again, the Vegas had a
8:12
Speaker 3: winning day, but I think their take home was sixty
8:15
Speaker 3: six million dollars, So one hundred and ninety million was bet.
8:18
Speaker 3: Their take was six million. That's terrible, Like people will
8:22
Speaker 3: be fired for that, no joke. That's that's a really
8:24
Speaker 3: bad take for them on their biggest weekend they've ever had.
8:28
Speaker 3: So yeah, they they should have hung. But we talked
8:31
Speaker 3: about they should have made this a pick, make it
8:34
Speaker 3: maybe minus one, but it was crazy before kickoff, you
8:37
Speaker 3: could have got two and a half. So yeah, for
8:40
Speaker 3: me and what we talked about again, we'll dive more
8:43
Speaker 3: into it. It's like it's the dream scenario, right. Our
8:45
Speaker 3: show wins big, my group wins big. I personally went big.
8:49
Speaker 3: I'll get a really nice bonus here coming up. And
8:52
Speaker 3: it's just people care so much about the playoffs. Mean,
8:55
Speaker 3: you could lay an egg for two months and got
8:58
Speaker 3: honest truth. If we win the super Bowl, most of
9:01
Speaker 3: that will be forgotten just because people do bet so
9:03
Speaker 3: heavy on this game. So yeah, it's nice to know
9:06
Speaker 3: we put a ton of time into this game. You
9:09
Speaker 3: break down film NonStop and just for off the top.
9:12
Speaker 3: Something that really stood out for me, something we talked
9:14
Speaker 3: about was the difference of Spags right and everything in
9:19
Speaker 3: that game. Again, mahomes all of it's incredible. It all
9:22
Speaker 3: felt like it came down to Spags waited at the
9:24
Speaker 3: right time to send those corner blitzes on those third
9:27
Speaker 3: downs that literally decided that game. So you know, obviously
9:32
Speaker 3: so much would dive into this game. But off the top,
9:35
Speaker 3: to me, the biggest thing that stood out was just
9:36
Speaker 3: how well Perdy played and just in the biggest moment,
9:42
Speaker 3: I think he was blitzed. I'd have to look at
9:45
Speaker 3: my notes, I think eighteen times and he was twelve
9:47
Speaker 3: for eight against the Blitz. So like, it wasn't even
9:50
Speaker 3: that Perty had a bad game against the Blitz, but
9:52
Speaker 3: those those third downs, those third and fourths, those third
9:55
Speaker 3: and threes with spags would send that corner blitz. It
9:57
Speaker 3: was the game changer. So just dream scenario, Chad, Right,
10:01
Speaker 3: when you win, when you win an over under by
10:03
Speaker 3: half a point, you cannot feel like you got very
10:06
Speaker 3: lucky in a game that was ten to three at
10:08
Speaker 3: halftime and you almost lost the over So by the.
10:10
Speaker 1: Way, one just total one total by half a point,
10:13
Speaker 1: half a point scores in overtime.
10:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, like it just that's why again we want
10:19
Speaker 3: to I want to shoot in the books for laying
10:21
Speaker 3: a bad number. How sharp were they with that total?
10:24
Speaker 3: Like opening at forty seven and a half, touched forty eight,
10:27
Speaker 3: closed at forty six and a half in a couple
10:29
Speaker 3: of books, And it's just that's what we're dealing with
10:31
Speaker 3: here people, these last couple of Super Bowls. It's again,
10:34
Speaker 3: it's the golden age of football. Like it's we haven't
10:37
Speaker 3: had a blowout in forever, Like it's just been incredibly
10:41
Speaker 3: closed super bowls where you can go back and look
10:44
Speaker 3: in the nineties, the seventies, the eighties, a lot of
10:46
Speaker 3: blowouts and yeah, it's just again, one hundred and twenty
10:49
Speaker 3: three million people watched that. It really is the golden
10:51
Speaker 3: age of football.
10:52
Speaker 1: But you didn't answer my question, why can't books adjust
10:58
Speaker 1: and why didn't a lot of better is adjust. A
11:01
Speaker 1: lot of professional money came in on the Niners, big
11:06
Speaker 1: big bets came in on the Niners.
11:08
Speaker 2: Why we were hearing it all week?
11:10
Speaker 1: You're sort of shaking your head, and like all week
11:12
Speaker 1: we were hearing a house players.
11:13
Speaker 3: I told you a tauas players, right.
11:15
Speaker 1: But still like even before that, we were hearing from
11:18
Speaker 1: wise guys that they liked the Niners and we were
11:20
Speaker 1: staying strong and staying on the Chiefs.
11:23
Speaker 2: But a lot of that, to me is because the way.
11:26
Speaker 1: These games get power rated is power ratings are set
11:30
Speaker 1: over the course of the season, and bookmakers especially are
11:33
Speaker 1: very slow to adjust. And the Chiefs were a team
11:37
Speaker 1: that was not perfect, but they are a team that
11:39
Speaker 1: is built to win over the course of a season.
11:42
Speaker 1: They're not worried about whether or not they're going to
11:44
Speaker 1: be the number one seed. They know they'll be able
11:47
Speaker 1: to win wherever they go as long as they are
11:49
Speaker 1: playing their best.
11:50
Speaker 2: Football come January.
11:52
Speaker 1: So the books didn't adjust for the fact that the
11:54
Speaker 1: Niners got that the Chiefs got so much better.
11:57
Speaker 2: Why is it so hard for books to make those
11:58
Speaker 2: dramatic adjustments.
12:01
Speaker 3: Honestly, the truth is they're stubborn. And that was the
12:04
Speaker 3: hardest part for me adjusting to the Mahomes because I
12:06
Speaker 3: told you, it's like everything in my body was like,
12:09
Speaker 3: you want to take the forty nine ers here. They
12:10
Speaker 3: matched up really well with a lot of what they did,
12:14
Speaker 3: but you just talked about it. It's like the more
12:16
Speaker 3: I dove into the film, the more I realized it's like, no,
12:18
Speaker 3: there's plenty here for the Chiefs to take advantage of
12:21
Speaker 3: against this forty nine ers team, and they did. And like, again,
12:24
Speaker 3: it's all about the adjustments. We talk all the time.
12:26
Speaker 3: It's these games are won and lost on these adjustments,
12:29
Speaker 3: and even in that overtime, people will go back and
12:31
Speaker 3: watch watch how they attack Bosa. That's that was the
12:34
Speaker 3: biggest table for me, Like that was a big adjustment
12:36
Speaker 3: where Bosa dominated the first half and they kind of
12:39
Speaker 3: redid the offense. We're like, you know what, we need
12:41
Speaker 3: to need to run it at him or just break
12:43
Speaker 3: out Mahomes to that side and let him get free. Wrong,
12:46
Speaker 3: we cannot have him keep dropping back and let Bosa
12:48
Speaker 3: get free runs on him. So yeah, the books, I
12:53
Speaker 3: got where they were coming from. I told Dry this
12:55
Speaker 3: game at minus one and a half for the forty
12:57
Speaker 3: nine ers, but I was never going to bet the
12:59
Speaker 3: forty nine unless they were a dog. I was never
13:01
Speaker 3: going to do it. But you kind of saw where
13:03
Speaker 3: I was coming from. Where I wanted the Chiefs at
13:05
Speaker 3: three because that felt like the safe number, Like that
13:08
Speaker 3: to me was the safest spot to bet this team.
13:10
Speaker 3: Because thing about this game, it was a coin flip game.
13:13
Speaker 3: It came down to a field goal, and that's that's
13:15
Speaker 3: what it felt like it was going to be the
13:16
Speaker 3: whole time, no matter what. So yeah, the books not
13:19
Speaker 3: adjusting to it. I think it's just being stubborn because
13:22
Speaker 3: most of us have the model and I was right
13:24
Speaker 3: there with them. But I didn't get the money. That's
13:26
Speaker 3: what That's my biggest issue was I didn't get the money.
13:28
Speaker 3: Where It's like the books kept saying they needed the
13:31
Speaker 3: forty nine ers, then why not move the number? Because
13:35
Speaker 3: every pro I talked to, the ones that were betting
13:37
Speaker 3: it were stubborn betterans. They weren't putting big money against
13:40
Speaker 3: my homes. Honestly, That's why I kept saying those big
13:42
Speaker 3: bets were seeing that was house betters to me. And
13:46
Speaker 3: you know, even our our network Action ran a thing
13:49
Speaker 3: with Billy Walters. And again, all you people out there,
13:54
Speaker 3: you don't fucking know any professional betters. Billy Billy Walters
13:57
Speaker 3: is it for you? Guys? Right? You think you know
13:58
Speaker 3: pros on Twitter? You do not. But what Billy Walters
14:01
Speaker 3: says is God's honest truth. And when people are like, oh,
14:04
Speaker 3: he's playing mind games telling people he's going to take
14:06
Speaker 3: the chiefs here, he's really going to be on the
14:08
Speaker 3: forty nine ers. What so he can look stupid to
14:11
Speaker 3: all of you people say he's about the chiefs, Billy Billy.
14:14
Speaker 2: Walters is saying he's on the Chiefs, he's already gotten
14:17
Speaker 2: his money down.
14:17
Speaker 3: He doesn't I couldn't say that the narrative. We're like,
14:21
Speaker 3: they're like, oh, Billy's trying to psyite people out so
14:23
Speaker 3: he gets a better number on the forty nine ers.
14:25
Speaker 3: It couldn't be further from the truth on what he
14:27
Speaker 3: was doing. So that was what it was annoying. Part two.
14:29
Speaker 3: People are like, you're doing the square pick taking the
14:31
Speaker 3: chiefs with the public. It's like, you only know one
14:33
Speaker 3: professional better named Billy Walters and he's on the chiefs.
14:36
Speaker 3: How can the chiefs be square if the best better
14:39
Speaker 3: in American history is on that side. So that that's
14:42
Speaker 3: the hardest part too. You're hearing so much stupid noise.
14:46
Speaker 3: Even the pros I talked to that are really smart,
14:49
Speaker 3: none of them went seven figures against Mahomes for good reason.
14:52
Speaker 3: It's like they're not dumb enough to take that stance
14:55
Speaker 3: where they were. They did take a stance, they did
14:57
Speaker 3: take the forty nine ers, but none of them were like, oh,
14:59
Speaker 3: this is this is an easy bet, right, None of
15:01
Speaker 3: them took that big of a position just because the
15:04
Speaker 3: line was so tight. So, yeah, it was an interesting
15:08
Speaker 3: week of really hard to stay in your position because
15:11
Speaker 3: there was so much noise. But honestly, one of the
15:14
Speaker 3: best sleeps I've ever had been in Super Bowl was
15:16
Speaker 3: a Saturday night've been on Mahomes. I really had peace
15:18
Speaker 3: of mind where it's like, I feel so much trust
15:21
Speaker 3: with this guy that if he has the ball last,
15:24
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be all right. And what did we see
15:25
Speaker 3: chat We saw history. He was eight for eight on
15:28
Speaker 3: that final drive in overtime to get a touchdown. That's
15:31
Speaker 3: why we bet him. Right, It's like that was the
15:33
Speaker 3: exact thing we talked about.
15:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, everything we talked about was do you really want
15:38
Speaker 1: to get it bet against Mahomes in a close.
15:40
Speaker 2: Game where the fact he's the guy on the either side.
15:44
Speaker 1: Of the field is going to play into the decision
15:47
Speaker 1: that every other coach opposing him in, every quarterback opposing
15:50
Speaker 1: him plays, We're gonna I want to dig in a
15:52
Speaker 1: little more into sort of his greatness.
15:54
Speaker 2: There's two other points I want to make.
15:56
Speaker 1: You mentioned Spagnolo and he's the only coordinator with four
16:00
Speaker 1: Super Bowl rings. He called a legendary blitz. I think
16:06
Speaker 1: it should go down with the Edelman catch in the
16:09
Speaker 1: Super Bowl against the Falcons. I think it should go
16:11
Speaker 1: down with the Malcolm Butler interception. I think it should
16:15
Speaker 1: go down with the Tyree helmet.
16:17
Speaker 2: Catch third and four from the.
16:21
Speaker 1: Kansas City thirty five yard line. If San Francisco late
16:24
Speaker 1: in the game, ty game. If San Francisco gets a
16:27
Speaker 1: first down, that game is over. And he ran a blitz.
16:31
Speaker 1: And people like to hate on Romo, but Romo did
16:34
Speaker 1: an amazing job of capturing this. Trent McDuffie is lined
16:37
Speaker 1: up in the slot what looks like he will be
16:39
Speaker 1: defending whoever is in the slot for the Niners. He
16:43
Speaker 1: takes one tiny step back as Purty is in shotgun
16:48
Speaker 1: and sees what McDuffie is doing. Purty looks the other way.
16:53
Speaker 1: Trent McDuffie then leaves coverage. Blitz is unblocked. He's there
16:57
Speaker 1: in less than a second and a half. That's the
17:00
Speaker 1: ball down, it's a field goal. That's the game. And
17:04
Speaker 1: like the fact that Spagnolo knew when he wanted to
17:07
Speaker 1: call that blitz. He did not call a ton of
17:09
Speaker 1: blitzes on that drive, but on that play called that blitz.
17:14
Speaker 1: He's a Hall of famer. He must get into the
17:16
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame with the way he has built a
17:18
Speaker 1: defense to compliment a once in a generation quarterback and
17:22
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes put him in.
17:24
Speaker 2: The Hall of Fame.
17:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's also a great life lesson of not
17:28
Speaker 3: everyone's cut out for different things in life. He is
17:30
Speaker 3: not a good head coach, and there's so much an
17:32
Speaker 3: extra that goes into head coach. But like you just
17:35
Speaker 3: said it that they're the second youngest defense in NFL
17:38
Speaker 3: history to win a Super Bowl, Like their average age
17:40
Speaker 3: was twenty five, and what he's done with their secondary
17:44
Speaker 3: of the cornerbacks, all of it, even their young detack
17:46
Speaker 3: was like, that was how you beat Purty. How you
17:48
Speaker 3: beat Purty is you get pressure up the middle and
17:50
Speaker 3: get them off balanced. Like that's really his only real weakness.
17:53
Speaker 3: I mean, that's what's so crazy about breaking down Perty's film.
17:56
Speaker 3: It's like, I can't believe this kid was the last
17:58
Speaker 3: pick in the second round or the seventh round, like
18:01
Speaker 3: all of his off bouncers, all of it. So, yeah,
18:03
Speaker 3: when you're breaking out of defense, to me, that was
18:06
Speaker 3: the key, right, And Kurt Warner did a great breakdown
18:09
Speaker 3: on Twitter about there was really nothing Perty can do.
18:12
Speaker 3: If Purdy was a ten year vet, maybe there's something
18:16
Speaker 3: he could have done there, right, Maybe go hard count
18:18
Speaker 3: anything to see that pre snap blitz. That's not who
18:21
Speaker 3: perty is man, He's a second guy running a very
18:24
Speaker 3: simple system that he just needs to really make those
18:27
Speaker 3: reads right. So Purdy has a lot going on his
18:29
Speaker 3: head already, trying to remember all these plays on all this
18:30
Speaker 3: different crap him not doing a hard count there. Yes,
18:34
Speaker 3: people are can fault them for that, right, but if
18:36
Speaker 3: you go back and watch that play, there's nothing they
18:38
Speaker 3: could have done unless taking a time out or whatever
18:41
Speaker 3: it was. He was dead from the get gos. What
18:43
Speaker 3: Chad just said, incredible disguise. The guy was backpedaling right
18:46
Speaker 3: before he snapped it and then just instant sprint unblocked
18:50
Speaker 3: right to him. So that was incredible. That everyone's gonna
18:52
Speaker 3: go back to the overtime play, right, Ayuk breaks his
18:55
Speaker 3: guy's ankles. He is in the back of the end
18:58
Speaker 3: zone wide open in that overtime But what happened right
19:01
Speaker 3: third down Blitzah, Yeah, that's what I mean. Third down
19:04
Speaker 3: blitz by Spags. The offensive line shifted, They didn't account
19:09
Speaker 3: the right the guard made the wrong read. He broke
19:11
Speaker 3: inside instead of staying on Chris Jones right, unblocked right,
19:15
Speaker 3: they're party and it's just that's that's the game within
19:18
Speaker 3: the game, right. Andy Reid made the perfect call on
19:21
Speaker 3: that touchdown and a couple couple plays right, same with Spags.
19:25
Speaker 3: Spags made the perfect calls of the perfect time, and
19:30
Speaker 3: that was the game changer of the game, Like you
19:32
Speaker 3: just talked about, like it won't be remembered by by
19:34
Speaker 3: football nerds like us. That's a player I'll remember forever,
19:37
Speaker 3: because you're right. It was just the perfect call and
19:39
Speaker 3: he'd just been saving it for that exact third down.
19:42
Speaker 1: At halftime of this game, the Niners were then up
19:47
Speaker 1: ten to three, and I was sitting watching with my wife,
19:51
Speaker 1: who's not a like, you know, huge football fan. She
19:54
Speaker 1: doesn't know sort of the history and the legacy of
19:57
Speaker 1: usher coming on, right, She doesn't know the history and
20:00
Speaker 1: legacy of Kyle Shanahan. And I looked at her and
20:04
Speaker 1: I go, I said, this, poor forty nine Ers coach,
20:08
Speaker 1: he's going to lose another Super Bowl in which he
20:11
Speaker 1: had a double digit lead.
20:13
Speaker 3: I felt the same way. I felt the same way.
20:15
Speaker 2: And here's the thing.
20:17
Speaker 1: I feel like this should not be an indictment on
20:23
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan not winning at this point, I think it's
20:26
Speaker 1: actually a testament to his skill level.
20:30
Speaker 2: Of the people he is.
20:31
Speaker 1: Playing against, he should be praised for making it as
20:36
Speaker 1: hard on them as it has been, because he's had
20:39
Speaker 1: the misfortune of coaching against Tom Brady when he was
20:44
Speaker 1: the coordinator for the Falcons and Patrick Mahomes in his
20:48
Speaker 1: two Super Bowl losses. This is like, and this is
20:53
Speaker 1: something we were saying about Patrick Mahomes for the past
20:55
Speaker 1: two weeks. He's not a normal quarterback, right. He is
21:00
Speaker 1: a Michael Jordan esque, Picasso esque, Shakespeare Esque Bill Gates
21:05
Speaker 1: esque figure. He is the exception to every rule. We
21:10
Speaker 1: are witnessing greatness on a level that has not existed
21:15
Speaker 1: except for maybe Tom Brady in the NFL, which is
21:18
Speaker 1: why you cannot bet against him. You cannot account for
21:22
Speaker 1: the normal modeling when it comes to him. This is
21:24
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills losing to the Cowboys because they had EMMITTT.
21:28
Speaker 1: Smith and Michael Irvin. It's the Jazz losing to the
21:32
Speaker 1: Bulls because they have Michael Jordan. Taking nothing away from
21:35
Speaker 1: Jerry Sloan and John Stockton and Carl Malone, all Hall
21:38
Speaker 1: of famers, but you were going against Michael Jordan and
21:41
Speaker 1: Phil Jackson like, you're just going against the people who
21:44
Speaker 1: are better than anyone ever, not just better than anyone
21:47
Speaker 1: in this moment. Here's a great staff from Aaron Shatz
21:51
Speaker 1: from formerlia football outsiders Mike Shanahan teams are now three
21:59
Speaker 1: of the sixth best teams ever to lose a Super
22:03
Speaker 1: Bowl based on DVOA. I mean, I feel terrible for
22:09
Speaker 1: the guy, but he's going against Here's some stats on
22:11
Speaker 1: how dominant Patrick Mahomes is.
22:13
Speaker 3: I just love they called him Mike. You called him Mike, Mike.
22:15
Speaker 2: Is that Colin Mike?
22:16
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's You're just locked in.
22:17
Speaker 2: I'm locked in. Sorry, Kyle.
22:20
Speaker 3: Pats take behind to the squee below.
22:31
Speaker 1: In one hundred and fourteen career starts, Patrick Mahomes has
22:35
Speaker 1: lost by more than one possession four times. When Kansas
22:41
Speaker 1: City allows seventeen points or less with Mahomes as a QB,
22:45
Speaker 1: they are forty two and oh straight up. When they
22:48
Speaker 1: allow fewer than twenty four points, they are fifty eight
22:53
Speaker 1: and six. When he is trailed by seven or more
22:58
Speaker 1: points in a less playoff games, he has taken the
23:02
Speaker 1: lead back in ten of those games. Since twenty nineteen,
23:08
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have trailed by ten or more points in
23:10
Speaker 1: a playoff game. Six times they are five and one
23:13
Speaker 1: straight up in those games. The rest of the NFL
23:15
Speaker 1: six and forty eight in those games, the guy is insane.
23:22
Speaker 3: He's insane, and these are the down This is suppeoifically
23:25
Speaker 3: a down year. Like that's the craziest part of these
23:27
Speaker 3: last two years. Was like, Okay, they paid him the money.
23:30
Speaker 3: Now they have to rebuild around them, right, and it's
23:33
Speaker 3: just gone the other way. And that was like, that's
23:35
Speaker 3: the most painful part for me, where like we talked
23:37
Speaker 3: about it, we got sucked in the narrative that they
23:40
Speaker 3: just weren't the same team this year. And it's true
23:43
Speaker 3: even in that Super Bowl, right, it showed it Uckily had.
23:46
Speaker 3: That offense can be incredibly stagnant because they don't have
23:49
Speaker 3: the game breakers. And again forty nine ers fans, I
23:53
Speaker 3: don't fault them for it, but you know, once they
23:56
Speaker 3: get injury to the linebacker position, you can't say the
23:59
Speaker 3: game did change. They who came in who got her
24:02
Speaker 3: was a green Law?
24:03
Speaker 2: Green Law got hurt.
24:04
Speaker 3: Yes, it was green Law. So Greenlaw goes down and
24:07
Speaker 3: at the time he is dominating the game. If you
24:10
Speaker 3: go back and watch the film, they are flying to
24:12
Speaker 3: the ball. The guy who comes in and replace him,
24:15
Speaker 3: Mahomes goes nine for nine against him, with one hundred
24:18
Speaker 3: and thirty passer rating in a touchdown. It's like, that's
24:22
Speaker 3: what's so brutal with this, where you eventually give Mahomes
24:26
Speaker 3: the matchup. He is so incredibly good at attacking it
24:29
Speaker 3: and taking advantage of it, and he's assassin with it.
24:31
Speaker 3: And that was the adjustment obviously they made, and we
24:34
Speaker 3: talked about it a little before the show, like Love
24:38
Speaker 3: I Will Love Forever. That call on fourth and one
24:40
Speaker 3: running a triple option right, he could either handed it off,
24:43
Speaker 3: he could have done a quick pass to Kelsey or Rice,
24:46
Speaker 3: but if it wasn't there, he was just gonna tuck
24:48
Speaker 3: it and run. And it's like you can't stop those
24:51
Speaker 3: kind of quarterbacks in those moments where Mahomes just never
24:54
Speaker 3: lets it get too big, he didn't even panic. I mean,
24:56
Speaker 3: right in his phrace is Bosa. Bosa goes with the
24:58
Speaker 3: running back, he keeps and just cuts right off of
25:01
Speaker 3: him and takes whatever it was ten fifty yards outfut
25:03
Speaker 3: It's just like that's what we talk about. We're betting
25:05
Speaker 3: him where he just when things break down. He always
25:08
Speaker 3: makes magic and the moment's never too big for him.
25:10
Speaker 3: And even at halftime, like you said, they're down ten
25:13
Speaker 3: to three, I never lost confidence and I knew eventually
25:17
Speaker 3: they would get a lucky break. That's just how their
25:19
Speaker 3: team's been all season. And sure enough, that punt happens,
25:22
Speaker 3: hits a foot, you know, the guy makes the right
25:25
Speaker 3: play right, tries to dive on it or pick it up,
25:27
Speaker 3: which I guess could say the wrong place, should just
25:29
Speaker 3: dove on it, But the moment was there, and what
25:33
Speaker 3: we talk about all the time, he's such a killer
25:35
Speaker 3: with momentum that their first play he goes right to
25:38
Speaker 3: the end zone. They score. And this is where I
25:40
Speaker 3: got so much respect for Purdy. He came out down
25:43
Speaker 3: thirteen to ten and drove right down the field and
25:45
Speaker 3: got a touchdown. And it's like, again, if you're a
25:47
Speaker 3: for a nine er span, it sucks, it's brutal, but
25:50
Speaker 3: it's like, you guys are so lucky that Purty just
25:54
Speaker 3: seems like he's the real deal and these moments aren't
25:57
Speaker 3: too big for him. It's it's pretty incredible. So yeah,
26:00
Speaker 3: like again, retrospect this league, I mean, God, William me
26:05
Speaker 3: and Chad, are still gonna be living for another hundred years.
26:07
Speaker 3: There's gonna be in next hundred years there's gonna be
26:09
Speaker 3: teams that never win a Super Bowl, the Lions of Browns.
26:11
Speaker 3: There is gonna be these teams that exist that are
26:14
Speaker 3: never gonna win. And that's the toughest part. If you're
26:15
Speaker 3: a Finance fan, It's like you got the team, but
26:18
Speaker 3: you don't know if you're ever gonna be back. And
26:19
Speaker 3: that's that's why I get it why you guys are
26:21
Speaker 3: so miserable right now. But it's like what Chad said,
26:24
Speaker 3: you ran into history. It's mahomes like it's an Eagles fan.
26:27
Speaker 3: I'm bummed about it. But it's like if you lose
26:29
Speaker 3: the greatest one, it doesn't matter. Now. The fun part, Chad,
26:31
Speaker 3: for me and you the next ten years, who's gonna
26:34
Speaker 3: be our Eli Manning? Right? Who is going to be
26:37
Speaker 3: this mid tier, unassuming quarterback that's gonna keep slaying this guy?
26:41
Speaker 3: And you know the story at the end of the day,
26:44
Speaker 3: again Eli made the throws. It was Spags right. Spags
26:47
Speaker 3: is part of that team that beat the had eighteen
26:49
Speaker 3: oh on a Patriots, So we know what you need
26:52
Speaker 3: to do to beat Mahomes right. You need to be
26:54
Speaker 3: able to get pressure with the front four. That's how
26:56
Speaker 3: the foy Nites are winning. They were getting pressure with
26:58
Speaker 3: their front four dropping the rest of the coverage. My
27:01
Speaker 3: Homes couldn't do anything to it. This issue was the
27:03
Speaker 3: foy Niners going to capitalize? I mean, you can't only
27:06
Speaker 3: score two touchdowns against Pat and expect to win. And
27:09
Speaker 3: I think Party had good retrospect talking about that where
27:13
Speaker 3: he did fail and retrospect because they kicked field goals.
27:17
Speaker 3: You need sevens to beat you need you need seven
27:20
Speaker 3: to beat them, right, Like we've seen it time and
27:21
Speaker 3: time again. If you give him an inch the mental
27:25
Speaker 3: war games, they're going to beat you eventually. And I
27:28
Speaker 3: think it makes sense why people keep harping on. We
27:31
Speaker 3: talked before, right, Chad more prepared team was going to
27:34
Speaker 3: be the Chiefs. Right, their coaching staff will be the
27:36
Speaker 3: most prepared team. It showed true, like them not knowing
27:40
Speaker 3: the overtime rules and the fact that Andy Reid talked
27:43
Speaker 3: about the overtime rooms in training camp and then they
27:46
Speaker 3: talked about it for the two weeks leading up to it.
27:48
Speaker 3: It's like, this is what it takes to be great,
27:51
Speaker 3: and those little details. Again, I'm not going to blame
27:54
Speaker 3: Kyle for losing the game because of that, but that,
27:56
Speaker 3: just to me is another factor on the edge that
27:58
Speaker 3: Andy Reid and Spags had where it's like every little
28:00
Speaker 3: detail they're prepare for.
28:03
Speaker 1: In the end, we bet on the best player, the
28:07
Speaker 1: better head coach, and the best coordinator. That's ultimately what
28:11
Speaker 1: we decided we were gonna do. Yeah, Simon, can you
28:16
Speaker 1: name the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States?
28:20
Speaker 3: Game Time?
28:22
Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love Game Time for
28:24
Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor this show. Second, I
28:27
Speaker 1: actually use game Time all the time. They have amazing
28:30
Speaker 1: last minute deals, including pro and college sports. Speaking of which,
28:37
Speaker 1: I'm actually going to open the game Time app right now.
28:41
Speaker 2: No matter where you live. What am I doing right now?
28:44
Speaker 3: Oh?
28:44
Speaker 1: I can see in the game Time app. I can
28:47
Speaker 1: see that I can go to a Brooklyn Nets game
28:49
Speaker 1: tonight for less than one hundred dollars. They're play in
28:52
Speaker 1: the Boston Celtics. I can get into an NBA game in.
28:56
Speaker 2: New York City.
28:58
Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app
29:00
Speaker 1: and get out and have some fun this week.
29:02
Speaker 2: You deserve it.
29:03
Speaker 1: You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your
29:05
Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply. Just download the game Time app
29:09
Speaker 1: and you use code favorites for twenty dollars off your
29:12
Speaker 1: first purchase. Last minute tickets, lowest prices. Garn teed, all right, Evan,
29:22
Speaker 1: bring us some interesting stats and data to provide context
29:27
Speaker 1: for this wonderful Super Bowl.
29:29
Speaker 3: What's up, guys?
29:30
Speaker 4: We can go one by one here. I do want
29:31
Speaker 4: to mention one thing since Simon just hit on it,
29:34
Speaker 4: so that list from Aaron shats the top three super
29:36
Speaker 4: Bowl losses on that DVOA list all Spagnola too, So
29:41
Speaker 4: two forty nine ers and Simon mentioned at oh seven,
29:44
Speaker 4: So Spagnola been the great thing.
29:46
Speaker 3: I just looked it up very quickly.
29:47
Speaker 4: Only so he only had one sack against Perdy and
29:51
Speaker 4: only two sacks against Hertz. He had five against Brady,
29:54
Speaker 4: so to me, not even sacks. It's the pressure. And
29:57
Speaker 4: we saw that on the third down in all those
29:59
Speaker 4: different situationtions. Just brilliant scheming, but very fun. That's Bagnola
30:03
Speaker 4: is a top three on that list. That guy is unreal.
30:07
Speaker 4: All right, let's keep going here. So it's just ridiculous.
30:11
Speaker 2: All famer Paul a freaking famer.
30:14
Speaker 4: Him and Dick lebou like side by side on so
30:16
Speaker 4: many lists. In his career, Patrick Mahomes has played eighteen
30:20
Speaker 4: games away from home against defenses allowing twenty points per
30:23
Speaker 4: game or less. Mahomes is now seventeen and one. In
30:27
Speaker 4: those games, he's won fifteen straight. His only loss was
30:31
Speaker 4: to Ryan Tannehill in twenty nineteen. A fun side note,
30:34
Speaker 4: but ridiculous.
30:35
Speaker 2: The truth is he'll never be an underdog again. Like
30:40
Speaker 2: he made a point of noting that they really shouldn't
30:43
Speaker 2: ever be underdogs.
30:45
Speaker 1: So but this is a good note to remember if
30:47
Speaker 1: by chance he ever is an underdog in this scenario again.
30:51
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, so let's move to kind of next
30:53
Speaker 4: season for a second, just for a moment, because this
30:56
Speaker 4: is a very fun note. So remembering the super Bowl
30:58
Speaker 4: hangover for week one. So since two one thousand, the
31:01
Speaker 4: loser of a super Bowl five and nineteen against the
31:04
Speaker 4: spread to open the year the next season, so not
31:07
Speaker 4: a great start last two years.
31:08
Speaker 3: Gone one and one with one covering and one not.
31:11
Speaker 3: And so let's was covered by what half a point
31:14
Speaker 3: against the Patriots. Yeah, it was very tight, really lucky.
31:17
Speaker 3: They didn't look great, so I think the angle kind
31:20
Speaker 3: of sits for itself. Yeah, but let's kind of talk
31:22
Speaker 3: about let's kind of talk about that Week one for
31:24
Speaker 3: a second. So speaking of week one, Andy Reid sixteen
31:28
Speaker 3: and nine straight up as a head coach to open
31:30
Speaker 3: the regular season. But I'm only mentioning that that for
31:32
Speaker 3: this reason when looking at his teams playing on long rest,
31:35
Speaker 3: so thirteen plus days outside of that Week one, he
31:38
Speaker 3: is now thirty two and seven in his career with
31:41
Speaker 3: the Chiefs and the Eagles. And I took it one
31:43
Speaker 3: step further because I was honestly just curious with Mahomes
31:47
Speaker 3: and McNabb. He is twenty seven and three on that
31:51
Speaker 3: thirteen days rest outside of Week one, So great quarterback
31:55
Speaker 3: and rest. There is literally nobody better in the sport.
31:58
Speaker 3: So I thought that was fun. We could put that
32:00
Speaker 3: in our back pocket.
32:02
Speaker 2: Jeez, Louise. We got a lot of stuff to remember.
32:05
Speaker 2: For two. That's why I'm here at the end.
32:08
Speaker 3: Of the day.
32:08
Speaker 2: A lot of sets remember, But really just remember, they'll
32:12
Speaker 2: bet against Patrick Mahomes.
32:13
Speaker 3: That's mostly what this is about.
32:15
Speaker 4: To Chad's point though, so he'll never be an underdog again,
32:19
Speaker 4: but the fact that he was in back to back
32:21
Speaker 4: Super Bowls is something we'll never ever forget because he
32:25
Speaker 4: was the first team ever to win back to back
32:28
Speaker 4: Super Bowls both as underdogs, and Mahomes might go down
32:31
Speaker 4: to the best quarterback ever. So the fact that that
32:33
Speaker 4: actually happened and we had two teams in Philly and
32:35
Speaker 4: San Francisco that pushed the market in that direction pretty fascinating.
32:40
Speaker 1: Isn't that amazing? Like, think about this, and this was
32:44
Speaker 1: driving a lot of our decision making. Why would you
32:48
Speaker 1: bet against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog?
32:50
Speaker 4: Like?
32:50
Speaker 1: In what world should this guy be an underdog? What
32:53
Speaker 1: will be really interesting is, let's say one year, Patrick
32:57
Speaker 1: Mahomes is in the Super Bowl with a three loss
33:01
Speaker 1: Kansas City team against a team that went undefeated that
33:06
Speaker 1: goes into the Super Bowl nineteen and o, and Patrick
33:11
Speaker 1: Mahomes is an underdog because there's no way he wouldn't
33:15
Speaker 1: be right. There's no way bookmakers are going to have
33:17
Speaker 1: a nineteen and OHO team three loss team, even if
33:19
Speaker 1: it's Patrick Mahomes, and he won't be the underdog. I
33:22
Speaker 1: can't wait for that day, and I can't wait to
33:24
Speaker 1: unload my kid's college fund.
33:26
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes the craziest part about that stat though, Chad,
33:31
Speaker 4: he did start his career and I believe this is
33:33
Speaker 4: right being a favorite in thirteen consecutive playoff games, he
33:36
Speaker 4: was one start away from tying Peyton Mannings record, and
33:40
Speaker 4: then all of a sudden he was a dog in
33:42
Speaker 4: five of six. So literally, it's just the dichotomy between
33:47
Speaker 4: the two and the difference of runs that they had
33:50
Speaker 4: in the teams just kind of makes it very fascinating.
33:54
Speaker 2: What else, a Dad, You got anything else?
33:55
Speaker 3: Yeah?
33:55
Speaker 4: I mean I got a bunch of stuff here. Last
33:57
Speaker 4: seventeen Super Bowls, Dogs now ten and seven straight up,
34:00
Speaker 4: twelve and five against the spread. So dogs have been
34:03
Speaker 4: really running the game, especially when the two teams are tight.
34:06
Speaker 4: And it's been the sixteenth consecutive year where the spread's
34:09
Speaker 4: been I believe under seven, so tight games. Two weeks
34:13
Speaker 4: of prep dogs have been pretty good. And we mentioned
34:15
Speaker 4: this on the first pot I did right off the
34:17
Speaker 4: matchup being set NFC favorites now is just terrible. So
34:23
Speaker 4: covering just once in the last eleven games dating back
34:25
Speaker 4: to nineteen ninety six, and we kind of talked about
34:27
Speaker 4: that and actually it.
34:28
Speaker 2: Came exactly true.
34:29
Speaker 3: Right.
34:30
Speaker 4: We were like, what was the reason oh the great
34:32
Speaker 4: quarterbacks on the other side, Well happened again.
34:37
Speaker 2: You got one more that I want to read, which is.
34:41
Speaker 1: I have about it that the last seventeen Super Bowls,
34:44
Speaker 1: the team with the better record entering the game has
34:48
Speaker 1: covered once.
34:52
Speaker 4: Unbelievable this super Bowl.
34:55
Speaker 2: Man, There's so many.
34:56
Speaker 1: Signals that you can glean from what has happened, And like,
35:01
Speaker 1: I think the hardest part with betting sometimes is assuming
35:04
Speaker 1: this is going to be the time where that doesn't work.
35:07
Speaker 1: It's like betting the unders in primetime games, betting regression
35:11
Speaker 1: in some sort.
35:12
Speaker 2: Of a way.
35:13
Speaker 1: We got to figure out a way, guys, Guys, this
35:19
Speaker 1: is the killer app that I'm about to suggest. We
35:22
Speaker 1: figure out how do we figure out which of these
35:26
Speaker 1: signals are irrefutable?
35:28
Speaker 2: Do you know what I mean?
35:30
Speaker 3: Sure?
35:30
Speaker 2: Which signals are irrefutable as a prediction.
35:33
Speaker 1: Of what will happen next? Evan, Evan, you got six
35:38
Speaker 1: months to figure it out.
35:40
Speaker 4: I was gonna say it's the six Pillars of something.
35:43
Speaker 4: It's got a creative name to it, but what it
35:45
Speaker 4: really should be, Chad, is anytime you bet against Patrick Mahomes,
35:48
Speaker 4: your phone should just electrocute you. That is most likely
35:51
Speaker 4: what the situation, and if he's an underdog and you
35:53
Speaker 4: bet against him, they should just completely take your phone away.
35:56
Speaker 3: So that's probably the easiest way to do it.
35:58
Speaker 2: You know how I like to manage.
36:00
Speaker 1: I like to think big picture. You can figure out
36:02
Speaker 1: the details. Just tell me what the answer is going
36:06
Speaker 1: to be. That's it, all right for the second time.
36:10
Speaker 1: Catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube. For
36:14
Speaker 1: those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like.
36:17
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. And now a
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Speaker 1: get fifty percent off. All right, this was a great
37:11
Speaker 1: stat simon An all credit to Evan. He told us
37:16
Speaker 1: before the season began that the preseason Super Bowl favorites
37:24
Speaker 1: with a with odds of twelve hundred or shorter had
37:30
Speaker 1: won nine of the past ten Super Bowls. Kansas City
37:34
Speaker 1: went off at six to one. So now it makes
37:37
Speaker 1: it ten of the eleven past Super Bowl champions with
37:40
Speaker 1: preseason odds of twelve to one or shorter have won
37:44
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. So I reminded everybody that in this
37:49
Speaker 1: season I did a little round robin. I bet you
37:52
Speaker 1: know Cincinnati, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Philly, Cincinnati, or San Francisco, Casey,
37:58
Speaker 1: San Francisco, Buffalo, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, And
38:02
Speaker 1: I got a matchup of San Francisco Kansas City at
38:06
Speaker 1: twenty two to one.
38:08
Speaker 2: Looking ahead to the futures.
38:09
Speaker 1: And we'll talk about totals for a second for our
38:11
Speaker 1: two teams here, but looking ahead of the futures, nine
38:15
Speaker 1: Ers are six to one at Bet three sixty five,
38:17
Speaker 1: Kansas City is seven to one, Ravens nine to one.
38:22
Speaker 1: Bill's ten to one, Detroit Lions twelve to one, just
38:28
Speaker 1: on the outside, Bengals fourteen to one, Cowboys sixteen to one.
38:37
Speaker 1: First question, if we're betting a Super Bowl matchup, would
38:42
Speaker 1: you do a round robin with these five twelve to
38:45
Speaker 1: one teams right now?
38:47
Speaker 3: Yeah? Sure, it's fun. But people, right now, in a
38:52
Speaker 3: high yel savings count, you can get five percent back
38:55
Speaker 3: on your money. Okay, do you want to tie your
38:57
Speaker 3: money up with a sportsbook for the next year or
38:59
Speaker 3: do you want to do that with your money? Please
39:01
Speaker 3: do the latter. Don't. Don't make these bets like what
39:05
Speaker 3: Chat's talking about is true. What I bet on is
39:08
Speaker 3: the unicorns, and it happens way more often you'd believe it,
39:12
Speaker 3: even this last season. Okay, I was all in on
39:15
Speaker 3: the Rams. I talked about the Rams for months. You
39:17
Speaker 3: could have got them at one hundred and fifty to
39:18
Speaker 3: one to make a Super Bowl run. Could you not
39:21
Speaker 3: have seen them beat that Lion's team right a couple
39:24
Speaker 3: of bounces to go their way? That could they have
39:25
Speaker 3: beat Tampa on the road? Probably? Could they have beaten
39:28
Speaker 3: this forty nine Ers team that seemed like they struggled
39:31
Speaker 3: down towards the end of the season right Oerra three
39:33
Speaker 3: against the spread for the forty nine ers in the playoffs.
39:35
Speaker 3: I'm sure the Rams could have done it right. So
39:38
Speaker 3: that's what if I'm going to tie up my money
39:39
Speaker 3: for the next year. I wanted to be in a
39:41
Speaker 3: long shot. Now people take it out of context where
39:45
Speaker 3: we're like these this show thinks stuff. The Chicago Bears
39:47
Speaker 3: are going to win the Super Bowl because we gave
39:49
Speaker 3: them out at one hundred and one. Fucking hey, we
39:51
Speaker 3: did not think that. Maybe we did once it came
39:54
Speaker 3: to August, but I definitely didn't think that betting in February.
39:58
Speaker 3: And what I'm betting here is I I want to
40:00
Speaker 3: bet long shots on things that might happen, that could happen,
40:03
Speaker 3: and you know, things could break these teams ways, and
40:06
Speaker 3: that's how they could get there. So if I'm gonna
40:08
Speaker 3: give you my what I've already bet again, this is
40:11
Speaker 3: gonna I'll start the bottom. We're gonna get real ugly people.
40:14
Speaker 3: My first bet, I made Giants at one hundred and
40:16
Speaker 3: twenty five to one on bet three six five. Do
40:19
Speaker 3: I really think the Giants are gonna win the Super Bowl? No?
40:21
Speaker 3: Do I think their division is open? Yeah? I don't
40:24
Speaker 3: think Dallas and Eagles are as good as people perceive.
40:26
Speaker 3: And I think if Daniel Jodges is healthy, they get
40:28
Speaker 3: a little better. I mean, even look at what they
40:30
Speaker 3: did with Tommy DeVito. People like it's all there. The
40:33
Speaker 3: Giants could make some crazy run. Do I really believe it? No,
40:37
Speaker 3: that's that's gonna start with the Giants. They're my longest one.
40:40
Speaker 3: Next up is Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is heavily rumored to be
40:44
Speaker 3: out there to get Justin Fields.
40:45
Speaker 2: Yes, I was gonna ask.
40:47
Speaker 1: You about this one because I'm looking at this one
40:49
Speaker 1: and like, of course we're going to bet the Steelers.
40:52
Speaker 1: I want to remind people that a few years ago
40:55
Speaker 1: we had both bet on the Buccaneers at very long
40:58
Speaker 1: odds before before Tom Brady went to the Bucks because
41:01
Speaker 1: he was rumored to be as part of the sweepstakes.
41:04
Speaker 3: And like, again, that's another great one where I again
41:08
Speaker 3: dumbest luckiest bet ever. I hit that at sixty to
41:10
Speaker 3: one Tampa to win a Super Bowl because Tom got
41:12
Speaker 3: traded there or with there as a free agent. Again,
41:16
Speaker 3: these are ugly people, Arizona Cardinals. I don't think there's
41:20
Speaker 3: terrible to perceive, even this year, they had. They had
41:22
Speaker 3: a bunch of games where it's like, Okay, this team
41:25
Speaker 3: is not that terrible. And you saw Kyler Murray came back.
41:28
Speaker 3: He's a spark, like as much hate as he gets,
41:31
Speaker 3: he is what all these people are hoping Bryce s
41:33
Speaker 3: Young would be right. It's like these fast, short quarterbacks
41:36
Speaker 3: that could put the ball downfield. Now you added they
41:39
Speaker 3: might take Marvin Harris Junior with their first pick, and
41:41
Speaker 3: now he has an episode still on the outside. I
41:44
Speaker 3: love that upside for Arizona. The only reason I'm not
41:46
Speaker 3: putting a lot on it is because their division. It's
41:48
Speaker 3: like the FY nine Ers, They're going to be right
41:50
Speaker 3: back here. They're heredy cost them point three percent of
41:53
Speaker 3: their salary cap, like they got the money. The FY
41:56
Speaker 3: nine Ers should be back. So again, not too heavy
41:58
Speaker 3: in Arizona, just because of that division. Chat already mentioned
42:01
Speaker 3: them Tampa sixty six to one. I just like the
42:05
Speaker 3: value there on Baker. It's like in that division, I
42:07
Speaker 3: got another team about to bring up. It's just because
42:09
Speaker 3: of the division they're in to cap it out. Even
42:12
Speaker 3: though this has moved Atlanta. I saw them at fifty
42:14
Speaker 3: to one, now they're down to forty to one. There's
42:16
Speaker 3: my last one Atlanta. Like Atlanta, if they go get
42:20
Speaker 3: Justin Fields, if they go get Kirk Cousins instantly, that's
42:24
Speaker 3: going to be a good team. Like they have all
42:26
Speaker 3: the pieces. The only thing missing all season was the quarterback.
42:29
Speaker 3: So I hate that they've moved so much because they're
42:32
Speaker 3: right at the threshold. I region don't like to take
42:34
Speaker 3: forty to one at this point of the year, but
42:37
Speaker 3: if you can shop around, this is about three six
42:39
Speaker 3: five or on shop rounds. If any other book has
42:41
Speaker 3: them at fifty to one. Still, I like the value
42:43
Speaker 3: in Atlanta, just in case they do get a quarterback
42:46
Speaker 3: in there.
42:47
Speaker 1: It's funny when I look at these top five Niners, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Lions.
42:53
Speaker 3: How about Lions being top five?
42:55
Speaker 1: I know it almost looks it looks disorienting, to be honest,
43:01
Speaker 1: because obviously we know what they did last year and
43:04
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of momentum for them.
43:07
Speaker 3: But the Chief's the only bet though when you talk AFC, right.
43:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like the Lines to me looks like I feel
43:14
Speaker 1: like they might be overvalued because of expectations. I might
43:19
Speaker 1: wait and hope that the Lines lose a couple of games,
43:21
Speaker 1: early drop and then yeah, like a virtue of their team.
43:25
Speaker 1: Then I look at the Ravens and the Bills. Why
43:29
Speaker 1: would I bet on either of those when they play
43:33
Speaker 1: in the same division as in the same conference as
43:35
Speaker 1: the Chiefs.
43:37
Speaker 3: There's just no mean factor. He's broken both of them mentally,
43:41
Speaker 3: he's broken them. You can't tell me it hasn't like
43:43
Speaker 3: people that keep being denial. It's like Josh Allen. I
43:47
Speaker 3: don't know how much therapy he's gonna have to do,
43:50
Speaker 3: but come on, like you just talked about it, like
43:52
Speaker 3: Michael Jordan broke people's wills. He broke that whole air,
43:56
Speaker 3: That whole nineties air was broken because of Jordan. We're
43:59
Speaker 3: seeing it for Mahomes. Like again, the Jazz, they should
44:03
Speaker 3: have won multiple championships and he broke them. Even he
44:06
Speaker 3: would say they had better teams and he still beat
44:08
Speaker 3: them just because of what he could do. So it
44:10
Speaker 3: feels the same rhythm, Mahmes. I'm right on board with Chad.
44:12
Speaker 3: It's like even the gout Dallas Cowboys. I almost got
44:14
Speaker 3: sucked back in the Cowboys were twenty to one. Dak
44:18
Speaker 3: for all we know, Dak is mentally broken. The dude
44:21
Speaker 3: Jordan Love looked like the season bet when they played
44:23
Speaker 3: like he got outclassed by Jordan Love. So I'd much
44:26
Speaker 3: rather throw money on green Bay at third price. Let's
44:31
Speaker 3: see where they're at. Green Bay is twenty two to one.
44:33
Speaker 3: I rather bet them than I would Dallas because at
44:36
Speaker 3: least I know Jordan Love has what it takes in
44:38
Speaker 3: the playoffs. He doesn't let the moment get too big
44:40
Speaker 3: for him. So yeah, people, if you think I'm betting
44:43
Speaker 3: these futures, I really think what Chad said so true.
44:45
Speaker 3: It's like, really dive into it. Can you really trust
44:48
Speaker 3: these teams at these prices? And I just don't think
44:50
Speaker 3: I can. Where It's like, I rather bet on these
44:52
Speaker 3: other random teams at a better price that to me
44:54
Speaker 3: had the same exact chances this Cowboys team does.
44:57
Speaker 1: The only AFC team I would bet on Cincinnati Bengals
45:02
Speaker 1: because I do think Burrow has proven it. Burrow has
45:04
Speaker 1: beaten Mahomes multiple times. They have a in Anarroumo, they
45:09
Speaker 1: have a coordinator on defense who I think is Spags
45:12
Speaker 1: like in his ability to be creative and create schemes
45:17
Speaker 1: that will challenge Mahomes. And they also have so much talent.
45:22
Speaker 1: So fourteen to one for the best.
45:23
Speaker 3: It was like the last year of it, right, because
45:24
Speaker 3: they're tagging T Higgs like this feels like the last
45:27
Speaker 3: year of h Chase T Higgs. You know, it's all
45:30
Speaker 3: there for this this Bengals team coming off an injury
45:32
Speaker 3: to right, it's good by low spot two for them.
45:34
Speaker 1: So since he feels like a good one to me,
45:36
Speaker 1: they could get out strong. So that's that's an interesting
45:39
Speaker 1: one to me.
45:40
Speaker 2: Right now.
45:40
Speaker 1: The totals for season wins Chiefs ten and a half, nine,
45:45
Speaker 1: Ers eleven and a half.
45:47
Speaker 2: I mean, how do you not bet the Chiefs over
45:48
Speaker 2: right now?
45:49
Speaker 3: What is be? Three? Six five? Hung their totals already.
45:52
Speaker 2: That's what I'm looking at regular season wins?
45:54
Speaker 3: Shit, just those two? Just those two? Okay, that makes sense. Yeah,
45:57
Speaker 3: that's psycho level. Gon do anything, but fuck man, I
46:04
Speaker 3: guess you got to take Mahomes over right, Damn of
46:07
Speaker 3: course you do. Yeah, that's crazy though they already hung it.
46:11
Speaker 3: Do you imagine locking up your money on a season
46:13
Speaker 3: win total for a year? That's insane?
46:16
Speaker 2: Yeah.
46:16
Speaker 1: And look, we're gonna We've got a lot of draft
46:18
Speaker 1: coming up, We've got a lot of free agency coming up.
46:20
Speaker 1: We're gonna have experts and guests on the podcasts in
46:24
Speaker 1: all these areas talking about ex pro players, and so
46:28
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a lot of fun. We're gonna dig
46:30
Speaker 1: in deeply in get a lot of actionable stuff as
46:32
Speaker 1: we go along. But I like what we're building here, Simon,
46:34
Speaker 1: I like. I think we've got a nice little foundation
46:36
Speaker 1: to build on for the season. As a reminder, the
46:41
Speaker 1: Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three six five.
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Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
47:19
Speaker 1: hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. Simon,
47:25
Speaker 1: you're back in New Jersey. You've been back in New
47:26
Speaker 1: Jersey for a couple of weeks. Can you officially and
47:30
Speaker 1: finally tell people so they can stop asking you why
47:32
Speaker 1: you were in Hawaii for so long?
47:34
Speaker 3: Well, I did tell people about our live shows. That
47:36
Speaker 3: was a little treat to our diehard listeners, where in person,
47:39
Speaker 3: I was happy to tell them. But yeah, Chad knows,
47:42
Speaker 3: I got in a little bit of trouble last year.
47:44
Speaker 3: I basically, you know, the group I worked for, a
47:46
Speaker 3: lot of them are oldered guys, and they all live
47:49
Speaker 3: in Vegas. And I just viewed it that everything going
47:52
Speaker 3: on the East Coast is a lot different right now
47:55
Speaker 3: than what's going on in Vegas. It's like two different worlds.
47:58
Speaker 3: A lot of different people here too, a lot of
48:00
Speaker 3: it's the game has changed. It's like I have so
48:03
Speaker 3: many books here. There's just so it's just so different.
48:05
Speaker 3: And I basically was going to try to get out
48:08
Speaker 3: of a contract and start my own little thing up,
48:10
Speaker 3: start my own group. I got caught for the Like
48:13
Speaker 3: the easiest way to say is I got caught before
48:15
Speaker 3: even getting anything going, and uh, you got gone. Yeah,
48:19
Speaker 3: I was told I had to leave the East Coast
48:22
Speaker 3: and I had to move west. Being the asshole I am,
48:25
Speaker 3: I was like, well, I'm gonna stick it to these
48:26
Speaker 3: guys because they're paying for it. I'm gonna make them
48:29
Speaker 3: pay for me to move to Hawaii. And yeah, joke
48:33
Speaker 3: was on me, like it was cool for two months,
48:35
Speaker 3: but quickly did I realize I am in the middle
48:38
Speaker 3: of the Pacific, thousands of miles from a sports book,
48:41
Speaker 3: and yeah, it was awful. It was. It was really
48:44
Speaker 3: tough trying to work there and deal with people, especially
48:47
Speaker 3: on the East Coast on those different hours doing our
48:49
Speaker 3: show at those different hours. Luckily, fleu to Vegas February first,
48:54
Speaker 3: got the clear that I can move back to Jersey.
48:56
Speaker 3: Now I am back in Jersey and hopefully next season
48:58
Speaker 3: I will be as well. It's just I love it here.
49:01
Speaker 3: I love the sports books, and I am a true
49:03
Speaker 3: degenerated heart where it's like I knew I missed the books,
49:06
Speaker 3: but I really didn't realize how bad I was going
49:08
Speaker 3: through during the season twil I was miles away. So
49:11
Speaker 3: love to WHI love the people Hawaii amazing experience, survived
49:14
Speaker 3: a once in a lifetime horrible fires. Happy to be
49:17
Speaker 3: back on the East Coast where there are no wildfires
49:20
Speaker 3: and my cheese steak doesn't cost thirty dollars and tastes
49:23
Speaker 3: like shit. It's nice to be back on the East
49:25
Speaker 3: Coast and.
49:27
Speaker 2: We're in the same time zone and only two hours
49:29
Speaker 2: away from each other. And I think about you saying
49:31
Speaker 2: how hard it.
49:32
Speaker 1: Is to live in Hawaii while I'm literally looking out
49:35
Speaker 1: my window at a blizzard that has been going on
49:39
Speaker 1: since midnight and trees that are falling down because the
49:43
Speaker 1: snow is so heavy.
49:45
Speaker 2: So, yeah, welcome back to the East Coast, sucker.
49:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love to why, but I am very happy
49:52
Speaker 3: back with all my degenerates on the East Coast.
49:55
Speaker 2: Listen.
49:56
Speaker 1: We're glad you're back too, as are all of our listeners.
49:59
Speaker 1: Be sure to catch our next episode of the Favorites
50:02
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50:13
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