Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / What happened to all the great Black Friday deals?

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What happened to all the great Black Friday deals? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: and Paul.
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Speaker 2: Lane, Chuck, Paul, and Tucker with you here the day
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Speaker 2: before Thanksgiving. Hope all your travel is going smoothly at
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Speaker 2: the moment. I haven't looked at a weather map to
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Speaker 2: see if there are major problems cascading across the country,
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Speaker 2: but I haven't heard anything at least. But let's pull
1:28
Speaker 2: this up here. Let's see. Okay, it looks like it's
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Speaker 2: snowing in Wisconsin, but it looks like it's mostly northern
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Speaker 2: Wisconsin and maybe the upper Peninsula of Michigan. So I
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Speaker 2: don't think that's a huge problem based on the populations
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Speaker 2: up there. And then let's see, it looks like down
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Speaker 2: by Corpus Christi, Texas, we got some rain, but other
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Speaker 2: than that, it looks pretty clear. So I think we'll
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Speaker 2: take that. Paul. As far as day before Thanksgiving travel.
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Speaker 3: Absolutely we'll take that.
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Speaker 2: Okay, Okay. If you're interested in how markets are performing
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Speaker 2: the day before Thanksgiving, the answer is good to quite good.
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Speaker 2: The S and P five hundred is up fifty points,
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Speaker 2: the Dow Jones Industrial average up three hundred and thirty two,
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Speaker 2: and the NASDAK composits of one hundred ninety four, So
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Speaker 2: all three major indices up about three quarters of a percent.
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Speaker 2: It's kind of fun. The tenure treasury up one point
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Speaker 2: five basis points to four point h one to seven percent,
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Speaker 2: Gold is up twenty one forty and ounce to forty
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Speaker 2: one sixty one and forty cents, and we got crude
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Speaker 2: oil up one cent a barrel to fifty seven to
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Speaker 2: ninety six triple a national average. Gas prices down another
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Speaker 2: one point three cents over night, though, to three oh
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Speaker 2: four and two tenths And gotta tell you, we're gonna
2:43
Speaker 2: make a real run at getting that national average under
2:46
Speaker 2: three dollars a gallon by this weekend, as more refinery
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Speaker 2: closures or more refinery maintenance periods have ended, and we
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Speaker 2: should be getting some additional supply coming through. So some
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Speaker 2: good news on that front. If you happen to be
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Speaker 2: traveling by car, by motorcycle, or by uh well, anything
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Speaker 2: else that uses gas to get you where you're going,
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Speaker 2: and you're paying for that gas, sure, yeah sounds good.
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Speaker 2: Speaking of travel, we've got a bunch of people that
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Speaker 2: are going to be traveling during the Thanksgiving period. US
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Speaker 2: airlines expecting to see thirty one million passengers taking to
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Speaker 2: the skies between November twenty one, so five days ago
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Speaker 2: and December first, five days from now. That is the
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Speaker 2: busiest Thanksgiving travel period on record. And this is coming
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Speaker 2: right out of you know, the government shutdown which saw
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Speaker 2: air travel, you know, kind of snarl throughout parts of
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Speaker 2: the country. We're still not fully back up to speed,
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Speaker 2: so we've got some challenges that may rear them their
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Speaker 2: heads during this time. But again, airlines trying to get
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Speaker 2: all thirty one million of those people to their destinations
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Speaker 2: as close as possible to the on time arrival that
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Speaker 2: they're aiming for.
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Speaker 3: Little bone to pick here, chuck with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.
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Speaker 3: He's encouraging travelers to dress up, to go to the airport,
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Speaker 3: help a stranger out, and be in a good mood.
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Speaker 3: I'm fine with the last two. First one, Who is
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Speaker 3: he to tell anyone to dress up or not. I'm
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Speaker 3: more of a casual traveler. Quote me on that, Yes,
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Speaker 3: thank you.
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Speaker 2: Let me. Let's let's let's discuss, uh, you know, air
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Speaker 2: travel etiquette. Yes, I think there are some stews and
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Speaker 2: do nots. Shoes on shoes on number one, you shoes,
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Speaker 2: your shoes do not come off during the flight unless
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Speaker 2: you want me to tickle them. Okay, you take your
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Speaker 2: shoes off. You take your shoes off next to me,
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Speaker 2: I am going to tickle your feet and make you
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Speaker 2: feel as uncomfortable as possible because those shoes need to
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Speaker 2: stay on at all times on a flight with you there,
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Speaker 2: absolutely hard hard stop other things. I think that when
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Speaker 2: it comes to, you know, how people dress for flights, honestly,
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Speaker 2: as long as it's something that like should generally be
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Speaker 2: worn in public, I'm pretty much fine with it. Like
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Speaker 2: I I look at how you know, dress has generally
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Speaker 2: evolved over time, and there's nothing to say we need
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Speaker 2: to be dressed, you know, like people flying in the
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Speaker 2: nineteen fifties where you're flying in like a suit and tie,
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Speaker 2: like I. You know, dress codes evolve and change and shift,
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Speaker 2: and there's no inherent problem with that. I do think, like, look,
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Speaker 2: if you're showing up to the airport and like your pajamas,
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Speaker 2: I think you're just kind of worthy of being like
5:39
Speaker 2: made fun of in general, because you shouldn't be outside
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Speaker 2: your house in pajamas anyways, whether it's going to the airport,
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Speaker 2: the grocery store, anywhere else, right with you there, with
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Speaker 2: you there, except in like certain special you know cases
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Speaker 2: where it's like okay, like if it's Christmas morning and
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Speaker 2: you need to like run out to get one last thing, fine,
5:55
Speaker 2: I get it. Like go out in your pajamas because
5:57
Speaker 2: you just don't want to change for Christmas morning. I
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Speaker 2: get it. But otherwise, like no, like.
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Speaker 4: It doesn't impact the travel industry.
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Speaker 2: Wear clothes that are appropriate for going outside the house
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Speaker 2: and you'll be fine. Shoes on is the big one.
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Speaker 2: Other things, if.
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Speaker 3: You're a window sea person, you know, try not to
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Speaker 3: get up too much during the flight, Just try and
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Speaker 3: limit your amount of times getting all that's my bladder, buddy,
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Speaker 3: Try to limit it, Tucker, try and hold it.
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Speaker 2: Other things, remember that airlines always do try to divide
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Speaker 2: us so that we fight amongst ourselves for you know,
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Speaker 2: the scraps of whatever we can grab. I do think
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Speaker 2: like being nice to each other when you're traveling because
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Speaker 2: everyone's a little bit stressed and just trying to get
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Speaker 2: to you know, their destination in one you know, without
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Speaker 2: you know, any major problems. Yeah like that, I totally
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Speaker 2: buy that. But as far as like what should you
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Speaker 2: wear to the airport, shoes at all times, nothing that
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Speaker 2: you wouldn't wear outside the house. Other than that, you're
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Speaker 2: kind of on your own in my opinion.
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Speaker 3: And no reason to jump up when the plane lands
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Speaker 3: unless you have a connected flat to run to the front,
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Speaker 3: because we're all gonna get off.
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Speaker 4: That's my biggest pet pet beef going right, Like in life,
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Speaker 4: there's the lands and everybody stands and is getting all
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Speaker 4: their stuff ready, where clearly the plane has to get
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Speaker 4: you know, situated and unpacked. Just relax so you see.
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Speaker 2: Well, it's like look at most airports anyways. Okay, So
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Speaker 2: then you're gonna get off the plane, You're gonna have
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Speaker 2: to go to the bathroom where you're gonna have to
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Speaker 2: wait anyways. Then you're gonna have to get on whatever
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Speaker 2: the shuttle is to you know, the main terminal where
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Speaker 2: you're gonna have to wait anyways. Then you're gonna have
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Speaker 2: to wait to go get your rental car. Then you're
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Speaker 2: gonna have to weigh the you know, toll going out
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Speaker 2: of the rental car lot. So it's like, look, just
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Speaker 2: just get ready for the waiting man. Just you embrace
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Speaker 2: the weight. Here's the thing. Uh, if you met your
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Speaker 2: great great grandfather who you know died in nineteen ten,
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Speaker 2: and showed him you know the things that you're upset
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Speaker 2: about when it comes to air travel. He'd be like, dude,
7:54
Speaker 2: we had to go by covered wagon to get across
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Speaker 2: the country.
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Speaker 3: By day, the Right brothers were just making inroads on
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Speaker 3: flying in nineteen six.
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Speaker 2: Be on this, okay, y'all know Dwight Eisenhower President, right, yes,
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Speaker 2: sign the Federal Highway Act. Dwight Eisenhower was part of
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Speaker 2: an expedition back in the nineteen I think it was twenties,
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Speaker 2: maybe early thirties that tried to you know, get from
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Speaker 2: one side of the country to the other, driving as
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Speaker 2: fast as possible on roads. It was it was an
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Speaker 2: army expedition to figure out how quickly they could get
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Speaker 2: stuff from one side of the country to the other.
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Speaker 2: It took sixty two days for them to do it.
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Speaker 3: Wow.
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Speaker 2: So even Dwight Eisenhower, who again like saw a whole
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Speaker 2: bunch of planes, flew on a whole bunch of planes
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Speaker 2: in his lifetime, would probably be like, yeah, guys, you
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Speaker 2: don't need to like make up the extra minute trying
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Speaker 2: to be Usain Bolt getting off the plane. You're gonna
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Speaker 2: get there just fine. The Turkey will be okay.
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Speaker 4: Well said, what where do you stand on the reclined seat.
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Speaker 2: I think everyone should reclimb, but I'm a little dude.
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Speaker 3: So.
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Speaker 4: In the chair was made to recline, therefore you should
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Speaker 4: be able to recline.
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Speaker 3: I just still know about going all the way back though.
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Speaker 2: What probably is the only way back, cause like he,
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Speaker 2: I guess here's where I I for the screen.
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Speaker 3: For the person behind.
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Speaker 2: Them, so then don't make them recline. So it's my
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Speaker 2: responsibility to make sure that the person behind me can
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Speaker 2: watch Dutopia as as easily as possible.
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Speaker 3: There's this cascading effect where the last row of the plane,
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Speaker 3: if everyone went by that premise and everyone had to recline,
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Speaker 3: would be in trouble.
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Speaker 2: That's why you don't book the last row of the
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Speaker 2: plane fair you know, it's you don't book that, and
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Speaker 2: you don't book the exit row if you don't. If
9:37
Speaker 2: you don't want to recline, like it's you know, do
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Speaker 2: you avoid those three rows and you'll be perfectly fine.
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Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm I'm pro reclining. I am very much.
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Speaker 2: The person in the center seat gets both armrests because
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Speaker 2: they're in the center seat, absolutely, and the people in
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Speaker 2: the island window you get the one armrest on the
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Speaker 2: outside each.
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Speaker 3: What's the preference window or aisle. I'm a window guy.
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Speaker 4: Anisle guy because so much wind.
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Speaker 3: Window guy because I'm mechanical.
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Speaker 2: I can hold it. Yeah, a large bladder, and I
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Speaker 2: like to fall asleep, so I'm not trouble for you.
10:09
Speaker 3: Lean on the window.
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Speaker 2: Yep, that's where where I live. At this point, I'm
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Speaker 2: trying to think of other items aside from the shoes. Oh,
10:20
Speaker 2: don't be on your bluetooth making phone calls. Oh sure, yeah,
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Speaker 2: Like the whole plane does not want to hear what
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Speaker 2: you're doing.
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Speaker 4: Anyways, because you're supposed to shut it off.
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Speaker 2: There are people who do. There are people who do,
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Speaker 2: so we we don't need that. Other things. Do not
10:37
Speaker 2: listen to the speakers on your tablet or computer. Get headphones. Yes,
10:43
Speaker 2: we don't need to hear you know.
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Speaker 4: I don't think i've ever come across that.
10:47
Speaker 2: I've seen it a few times. Other things. If someone's
10:51
Speaker 2: traveling with a child, don't give them any crap about
10:55
Speaker 2: their kid being noisier, crying like it's just you know,
10:59
Speaker 2: it's it's how it's going to be. And they are
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Speaker 2: far more freaked out about their kid than you are.
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Speaker 2: The counter to this is if a parent is not
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Speaker 2: saying anything to their kid who is kicking your seat, yes,
11:12
Speaker 2: you should probably then say something to the parent about, hey,
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Speaker 2: could you please stop your child from kicking my seat? Definitely,
11:17
Speaker 2: I think that's totally fine. Let's take a quick break
11:20
Speaker 2: here and when we return, we've got trivia, and then
11:26
Speaker 2: let's talk about whether or not Black Friday deals look
11:28
Speaker 2: lame this year.
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Speaker 2: Peas in Bloomberg Black Friday deals looking lame? Just wait,
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Speaker 2: what does this piece talk about? Paul Chuck.
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Speaker 3: Basically, what this is going over is that retailers are
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Speaker 3: trying to rein in their discounting, perhaps some of it
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Speaker 3: due to tariffs. A lot of this stuff was ordered
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Speaker 3: kind of right at the height of all the tariff paranoria,
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Speaker 3: which hasn't really come to fruition luckily as much as
14:21
Speaker 3: had we had anticipated in April. Rates have been far
14:24
Speaker 3: less punitive than initially estimated. But when these orders were
14:27
Speaker 3: being placed for Black Friday was in and around April
14:30
Speaker 3: where it was very unclear what the tariff policy would
14:34
Speaker 3: look like going forward. So, particularly when you look at toys, electronics,
14:37
Speaker 3: and household appliances, those are often imported from overseas. According
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Speaker 3: to Adobe, Inc. Online discounts are likely to be shallower
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Speaker 3: this year in those categories. As a whole, we're seeing
14:52
Speaker 3: that perhaps there's going to be more of a focus
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Speaker 3: on just the basics and less spending on some of
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Speaker 3: those scrushing items for the holidays, and not a lot
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Speaker 3: of discounts to be found out there.
15:04
Speaker 2: How are you guys doing with holiday shopping at this point?
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Speaker 3: We're in good sheep.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, we kind of got a good chunk done a
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Speaker 4: week or so ago, but we still got to finish
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Speaker 4: it out. I know you were done in like May
15:15
Speaker 4: or something, right.
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Speaker 2: I try to generally operate four to six months in advance. Yeah, yeah,
15:23
Speaker 2: I wasn't done quite that early this year, just because
15:26
Speaker 2: I had a few things that I was poking around on.
15:30
Speaker 2: But yeah, we're too.
15:31
Speaker 4: Busy with the Christmas lights in May.
15:33
Speaker 2: Yeah too. So honestly, Christmas lights have been up at
15:36
Speaker 2: the house for three weeks now.
15:37
Speaker 3: Three weeks wow wow?
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Speaker 2: Yeah, we got them November fifth, it'll be three weeks
15:44
Speaker 2: this weekend. We got them up the weekend of the eighth. Okay, Now,
15:48
Speaker 2: granted we had this this friends giving that we did
15:50
Speaker 2: last weekend. That was a. It was a nineteen eighties
15:53
Speaker 2: Italian Christmas theme that we did just because we didn't
15:55
Speaker 2: want to have turkey twice. We didn't want to have
15:57
Speaker 2: turkey twice. But honestly, like, here's the thing. We talked about,
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Speaker 2: my wife and I and we decided, Look, we're gonna
16:03
Speaker 2: kind of do this every year because a like, I'm
16:07
Speaker 2: a big believer that Thanksgiving doesn't need to have like
16:09
Speaker 2: its own decor, Like it's late enough in the fall
16:13
Speaker 2: that like you don't need all these leaves and things
16:15
Speaker 2: and whatever. Right and true, Look, we got the stuff
16:18
Speaker 2: done three weeks ago. Now we get to actually keep
16:21
Speaker 2: it up for a couple months and enjoy it instead
16:23
Speaker 2: of just like running around like crazy the first week
16:26
Speaker 2: of December trying to get everything done. It's like, no,
16:28
Speaker 2: we're still gonna have to go get you know, tree
16:30
Speaker 2: and stuff in you know a few few days. But okay,
16:35
Speaker 2: that's a lot easier than putting up all the other stuff.
16:37
Speaker 2: Just because we've been known to overdo it for Christmas decorations,
16:44
Speaker 2: we've gone full Griswold at our house. It's the only
16:48
Speaker 2: way to fly.
16:49
Speaker 3: We're focusing on just a couple big gift items trying
16:52
Speaker 3: not to clutter our family more than it's already cluttered
16:55
Speaker 3: with small kids toys.
16:57
Speaker 2: I hear you. Yep. We we just did a big
16:59
Speaker 2: donation run last week.
17:01
Speaker 4: I would love to do a donation run.
17:04
Speaker 2: How did you do it? So let me tell you
17:06
Speaker 2: how we did it. So, like a lot of families,
17:09
Speaker 2: we had one of those little kid tents set up
17:12
Speaker 2: in one of the rooms. Yep, and the tent finally broke.
17:15
Speaker 2: We'd had it for five years and it literally just
17:17
Speaker 2: collapsed on itself just from.
17:19
Speaker 3: Use and whatever impressive staying power.
17:22
Speaker 2: The tent, like a lot of families, was filled with
17:25
Speaker 2: stuffed animals that people brought for the first five years
17:27
Speaker 2: of our kids' lives. So it then became okay, we've
17:30
Speaker 2: got to like figure out what to do with this,
17:31
Speaker 2: that and everything. It turned into okay, get all of
17:34
Speaker 2: the toys out from this room, because we basically try
17:37
Speaker 2: to keep them in one room just to avoid a
17:40
Speaker 2: huge disaster, of course, and then we just kind of
17:42
Speaker 2: went through and we're like, nope, get rid of it, Nope,
17:44
Speaker 2: get rid of it, and legitimately like multiple trash bags
17:49
Speaker 2: of things to donate. When it was all said and
17:51
Speaker 2: done and it's in a great spot.
17:54
Speaker 3: Now where where's where'd you go for donating?
17:57
Speaker 2: Just like a yeah, gotcha, yeah gotcha.
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Speaker 4: My kids notice if one tiny thing is missing, they
18:05
Speaker 4: just break down.
18:06
Speaker 2: So the nice thing about this is we were doing
18:09
Speaker 2: it with them there, and so they could see everything
18:12
Speaker 2: that we were getting rid of.
18:14
Speaker 3: We did get behind the kids' backs.
18:17
Speaker 2: So the nice thing is it was going quickly enough
18:21
Speaker 2: that I don't think they could think about it very long,
18:24
Speaker 2: and so they like they got to see what was going,
18:26
Speaker 2: but then it was onto the next thing just like that,
18:28
Speaker 2: and they couldn't like ruminate about like do I want this?
18:31
Speaker 2: Do I not want this? And so we made some
18:34
Speaker 2: really good progress. It was. It was good because again
18:38
Speaker 2: especially it's like all those you know, baby and one
18:40
Speaker 2: year old toys. It's like, okay, youngest, like, isn't that
18:42
Speaker 2: old anymore? Like move on, get them out.
18:46
Speaker 4: I gotta say, I think stuffies are worse than toys.
18:50
Speaker 2: I had a whole trash back of those two.
18:51
Speaker 4: Yeah, like we have a whole chest full of stuffies
18:56
Speaker 4: and it's just like, oh man, this takes up a
18:58
Speaker 4: lot of room. Stop getting them stuffed in please.
19:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's and and look I get it. But we've
19:05
Speaker 2: basically had to do a no stuffed animal rule for
19:07
Speaker 2: the last year now because it's just it's just not
19:11
Speaker 2: not not okay, We've.
19:12
Speaker 3: Got truck craziness, which is just obstacles left and right
19:15
Speaker 3: in that particular room to avoid stepping on.
19:21
Speaker 2: I gotta tell you, yeah, whoever makes the kids toys
19:23
Speaker 2: so small so they inflict the maximum pain on your
19:26
Speaker 2: foot when it gets right into the arch.
19:29
Speaker 4: Like oh, the Lego number one, I mean.
19:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Lego's bad, But like the freaking Peppa pigs
19:36
Speaker 2: and stuff, like, all that stuff's right in the wheelhouse too.
19:39
Speaker 3: I mean it's just like some strong plastic.
19:42
Speaker 2: Oh you like, you got to just make all the
19:45
Speaker 2: toys out of nerve for something. You gotta figure something
19:48
Speaker 2: out because it's just brutal walking around with no shoes on.
19:51
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we return Trivia Answer,
19:56
Speaker 2: Wall Street Watch, and then Sellers pulling their homes off
19:59
Speaker 2: the market.
20:10
Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day,
20:15
Speaker 1: it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:22
Speaker 1: Time now for Wall Street Watch, a complete look at
20:25
Speaker 1: what's moving market so far today right here on the
20:28
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:30
Speaker 4: We're seeing a little bit of a rally here on
20:32
Speaker 4: Wall Street as traders sift through more economic data points
20:36
Speaker 4: this morning, including durable goods and jobless claims. Right now,
20:41
Speaker 4: the Dow is up over three quarters of a percent,
20:44
Speaker 4: or three hundred and sixty three points. S and P
20:46
Speaker 4: five hundred is up over eight tenths of a percent
20:49
Speaker 4: or fifty five points. NASDAC up nearly one percent higher,
20:53
Speaker 4: or two hundred and sixteen points. Russell two thousand is
20:55
Speaker 4: up over three quarters of a percent. Ten Your treasure
20:58
Speaker 4: Field is up one bait point at four point zero
21:01
Speaker 4: one three percent, and crude oil is edging higher, trading
21:05
Speaker 4: just below fifty eight dollars a barrel after the stock
21:10
Speaker 4: pulled back three percent and reaction to optimism around Google's
21:13
Speaker 4: AI chips in video shares are rebounding nearly two percent
21:17
Speaker 4: today in response to concerns the AI and chip giant
21:21
Speaker 4: said on a post on x that it is a
21:24
Speaker 4: generation ahead of the industry. Alphabet, by the Way, is
21:27
Speaker 4: down over one percent. Meanwhile, shares in Dell Technologies arising
21:32
Speaker 4: six percent now after the computer in software maker raised
21:35
Speaker 4: its full year guidanceing forecasted its AI server shipments would
21:39
Speaker 4: more than double. Elsewhere, Deer beat earning exam revenue expectations
21:44
Speaker 4: for the previous quarter. However, the farm equipment maker issued
21:47
Speaker 4: a downbeat annual forecast and said tariffs in uncertainty would
21:50
Speaker 4: pressure earnings. Deer is down by five percent. In apparel,
21:54
Speaker 4: retailer Urban Outfitters posted stronger than expected courtly results, boosted
21:59
Speaker 4: by its names brand. That stock is rallying over ten
22:03
Speaker 4: percent higher. I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street watching.
22:07
Speaker 4: In the previous segment, we asked you the trivia question
22:10
Speaker 4: who is Peter Boyle's best man at his nineteen seventy
22:13
Speaker 4: seven wedding. That would be John Lennon. John Lennon was
22:16
Speaker 4: his best man. Sean from Boston, Mass is our winner
22:19
Speaker 4: today taking on the Financial Exchange Show t shirt. We
22:22
Speaker 4: play trivia every day here in the Financial Exchange. See
22:25
Speaker 4: complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com and again.
22:29
Speaker 4: The Financial Exchange streams every day live on YouTube. Subscribe
22:32
Speaker 4: to our page and follow market activity all morning long.
22:36
Speaker 4: Searts the Financial Exchange on YouTube and hit that subscribe button.
22:42
Speaker 2: Sellers pulling their homes off the market at the fastest
22:46
Speaker 2: pace in nearly a decade. This According to data out
22:52
Speaker 2: of Redfin, eighty five thousand US sellers took their homes
22:55
Speaker 2: off the market in September of twenty eight percent from
22:59
Speaker 2: September of twenty twenty four, and the highest level for
23:03
Speaker 2: that month in eight years. Big reason for ad listing
23:07
Speaker 2: is you don't want to lower your price to accept
23:09
Speaker 2: a lower sale price, and this most likely in my opinion,
23:16
Speaker 2: has to do with people who bought properties within the
23:18
Speaker 2: last couple of years and don't want to take an
23:21
Speaker 2: actual loss on their sale, or in some cases might
23:24
Speaker 2: not have the equity to be able to take a
23:26
Speaker 2: loss on the sale.
23:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're finally on the supply side, getting a little
23:29
Speaker 3: bit more relief, though it hasn't really translated into significantly
23:33
Speaker 3: lower prices nationally. Obviously, if you look at some areas
23:36
Speaker 3: of the country, there has been significant price declines. The
23:39
Speaker 3: supply of homes for sales about fifteen percent higher now
23:43
Speaker 3: that it was a year ago, according to realtor dot com.
23:46
Speaker 3: That could shrink in the coming weeks here because of
23:48
Speaker 3: some seasonal effects. But as you had mentioned in the
23:51
Speaker 3: first hour of the show, check, it has been a
23:52
Speaker 3: very weak housing market. Interest rates have come down a
23:56
Speaker 3: little bit, perhaps not as significantly as once thought, and
23:59
Speaker 3: we still haven't. I've seen a tremendous amount of housing activity.
24:02
Speaker 3: I don't really know what cures it in those areas
24:04
Speaker 3: that are challenged the most, in Florida and Texas in
24:08
Speaker 3: some areas of the Sunbelt. It's not as if there's
24:11
Speaker 3: going to be a huge surge of buyers that I
24:13
Speaker 3: would think are going to come into the market. Ain't
24:15
Speaker 3: time soon.
24:16
Speaker 2: No, it's something where also, you know, if you have
24:19
Speaker 2: home prices that are falling in an area. Again, one
24:23
Speaker 2: of the reasons why people decide to buy a house
24:25
Speaker 2: is because they think the value of it is going
24:27
Speaker 2: to move up. If you have home prices that are
24:30
Speaker 2: falling significantly in an area, people say, no, I don't
24:34
Speaker 2: want to buy right now prices are falling. I want
24:36
Speaker 2: to wait until I see some stability. And so this
24:39
Speaker 2: is why you get into the issue of hey, even
24:42
Speaker 2: though prices have come down, you're still not seeing a
24:45
Speaker 2: conclusive move up in volumes. You know, I was looking
24:49
Speaker 2: at the volume data yesterday just because we had gotten
24:52
Speaker 2: existing home sales data last week, and basically you know,
24:57
Speaker 2: we're the latest numbers for October or an annualized pace
25:01
Speaker 2: of four point one million. You can go back to
25:05
Speaker 2: pretty much April of twenty three, so almost three years now,
25:08
Speaker 2: two and a half years. The peak has been around
25:11
Speaker 2: four and a quarter million, the bottom has been around
25:14
Speaker 2: three point eight five million, and everything else has just
25:17
Speaker 2: been wiggling in between. Normal market. Pre pandemic, we were
25:21
Speaker 2: generally seeing around five to five and a half million
25:24
Speaker 2: units transacting in a given year. So we're running, you know,
25:29
Speaker 2: twenty five to thirty percent below pre pandemic volume. And
25:34
Speaker 2: then obviously twenty one and twenty two got nuts. I
25:36
Speaker 2: mean we had times where we were running almost seven
25:39
Speaker 2: million annualized units, you know, six and a half million
25:41
Speaker 2: annualized units. I don't think that's where you know, you
25:44
Speaker 2: would expect to get to. But in terms of like
25:47
Speaker 2: latent capacity, we're we're running like one to one and
25:51
Speaker 2: a half million units below per year where you would
25:54
Speaker 2: normally be transacting.
25:57
Speaker 3: It not gonna be an easy go for the for
26:00
Speaker 3: the housing marketing time soon, that's for sure.
26:02
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27:08
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for and the views expressed are
27:10
Speaker 1: solely those of Cushing and Dolan. Cushing and Dolan and
27:12
Speaker 1: or Armstrong Advisory may contact you offering legal or investment services.
27:16
Speaker 1: Cushing and Armstrong did not endorse each other and are
27:18
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27:19
Speaker 2: Schneider Electric, who is a major manufacturer of well, how's
27:24
Speaker 2: the name implies basically all kinds of different products related
27:30
Speaker 2: to electricity generation, power management, like you name it. If,
27:37
Speaker 2: if it's something that involves getting electrons from point A
27:41
Speaker 2: to point B, Schneider Electric does it. And they're estimating
27:47
Speaker 2: that the United States could end up with a shortage
27:50
Speaker 2: in power of about one hundred and seventy five gigawatts
27:53
Speaker 2: by twenty thirty three, largely because of increased demand from
27:59
Speaker 2: artificial intelligence data centers. At the same time, that capacity
28:03
Speaker 2: is just not growing quickly enough. And this is something
28:06
Speaker 2: we've been talking about for months, and it's nice to
28:08
Speaker 2: know that everyone is finally paying attention to this because
28:11
Speaker 2: you know, we were on this back in the summer
28:13
Speaker 2: when no one wanted to talk about it, and this
28:16
Speaker 2: is now, you know, people are realizing, oh, yeah, this
28:19
Speaker 2: is kind of a problem, and no one's really doing
28:23
Speaker 2: enough to address it. It's just not something where we're
28:27
Speaker 2: clearing the the hurdles that need to be you know,
28:32
Speaker 2: jumped over right now in order to build power plants
28:36
Speaker 2: and power generation and distribution quickly enough to deal with
28:39
Speaker 2: all these data centers that are going up.
28:42
Speaker 3: No, it's an incredibly slow process. And it's not being
28:45
Speaker 3: met with enough urgency. I do wonder, and I'm not
28:49
Speaker 3: saying that this is going to happen exactly, but when
28:52
Speaker 3: we were covering the chip story or earlier in the show,
28:55
Speaker 3: Chuck just perhaps that there's still going to be, of course,
28:58
Speaker 3: a tremendous amount of demand for artificial intelligence. It seems
29:01
Speaker 3: like projecting the future, but perhaps some of the chips
29:04
Speaker 3: get a little bit more sophisticated and power efficient that
29:07
Speaker 3: would maybe lessen some of the demand. I'm not saying that, hey,
29:10
Speaker 3: we're suing to be in the clear, but I was
29:12
Speaker 3: just sort of percolating thinking over that a little bit
29:15
Speaker 3: that perhaps that would be some reprieve. But overall, there
29:18
Speaker 3: still is going to be more electricity demand, whether it's
29:21
Speaker 3: from artificial intelligence. There's some of these other areas of
29:24
Speaker 3: the market that need to be developed out further, and
29:27
Speaker 3: it's something that the US should address sooner rather than later.
29:30
Speaker 3: I don't know if that's going to be the case,
29:33
Speaker 3: but definitely some red tape needs to be pulled down
29:35
Speaker 3: to make things be innovated a little bit faster. On
29:39
Speaker 3: the electrical grid side of things.
29:41
Speaker 2: Take a quick break here. When we return, we'll do
29:43
Speaker 2: some stack rough.
29:44
Speaker 1: Let's find daily interviews and full shows of the Financial
29:48
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30:00
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30:03
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30:16
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30:19
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30:24
Speaker 1: and gentlemen the weekend.
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31:04
Speaker 2: Paul, what do you got for stack roulette today, Chuck?
31:06
Speaker 3: You remember that company called Peloton that we talked about
31:09
Speaker 3: a lot during the pandemic.
31:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're still.
31:12
Speaker 3: Around, and they're nowhere near as strong as they once were.
31:16
Speaker 3: The stock once peaked at one hundred and fifty one
31:19
Speaker 3: dollars this year in October of twenty twenty. The stock
31:22
Speaker 3: sits today at a mere six dollars and seventy five cents.
31:27
Speaker 3: Where they're in the news today, and this is just
31:30
Speaker 3: baffling to me. Is Peloton has new AI powered bikes
31:35
Speaker 3: and treadmills, and apparently they're getting off to a slow start,
31:39
Speaker 3: which made me puzzled as to what could artificial intelligence
31:44
Speaker 3: possibly help you in terms of getting on a bike
31:47
Speaker 3: or being better for your workout experience. I mean, they
31:51
Speaker 3: claim here that their Peloton Iq is an AI platform
31:54
Speaker 3: that offers personalized guidance, insights, and coaching plans. It's pretty
31:58
Speaker 3: simple when it comes to work out, and I'm not
32:01
Speaker 3: an expert on it by any means, but you just
32:02
Speaker 3: got to get out there and do it, and do
32:05
Speaker 3: some form of it. I'm pretty confident saying you don't
32:09
Speaker 3: need our official intelligence to to help you just pedal
32:12
Speaker 3: more on the bike.
32:13
Speaker 2: I agree. It's something where I feel like this is
32:22
Speaker 2: not a peloton thing. But again, every everyone wants to
32:24
Speaker 2: be like getting into like trying to measure every aspect
32:28
Speaker 2: of your health. Like, oh, if we can just measure it,
32:30
Speaker 2: like we'll be able to like do it better. And
32:32
Speaker 2: it's like no, Like, guys, if you want to like
32:35
Speaker 2: bike faster than bike faster. I know that sounds kind
32:41
Speaker 2: of dumb, but biking is like running, which is I'm
32:44
Speaker 2: not a genius, but it's something I know something about. Ultimately,
32:47
Speaker 2: when it comes to any kind of aerobic activity, your
32:51
Speaker 2: limit is basically how much pain you're willing to endure
32:54
Speaker 2: in that moment, like within limits, you know, assuming that
32:57
Speaker 2: you're not actually hurting your body. But like the reason
33:00
Speaker 2: that someone can run an eight minute mile and someone
33:04
Speaker 2: else can only run a nine minute mile is because
33:07
Speaker 2: they are willing to push themselves to a certain place,
33:10
Speaker 2: you know, beyond like you know, just your basic physiology
33:13
Speaker 2: and limiting factors that you might have there. So ultimately, like, look,
33:19
Speaker 2: if you want to bike more than bike more, you know,
33:24
Speaker 2: I okay go from you know, doing a ten minute
33:26
Speaker 2: bike ride to a twenty minute one. Artificial intelligence isn't
33:30
Speaker 2: going to give you the ability to do that. It's
33:34
Speaker 2: it's just not.
33:35
Speaker 3: And if you want better results, to get from an
33:37
Speaker 3: eight minute mile to a seven minute mile, then you
33:40
Speaker 3: just need to do it more frequently, more reps.
33:42
Speaker 2: And look, you can certainly likes there's plenty of stuff
33:45
Speaker 2: that you can read about online as far as training
33:48
Speaker 2: on all of this stuff. As an example, I was
33:50
Speaker 2: doing the dav five K a couple weeks ago, and
33:54
Speaker 2: I spent part of the summer like reading up on
33:56
Speaker 2: different training plans, and then I just said, okay, I'm
33:59
Speaker 2: going to try something because ultimately the other pieces, Look,
34:03
Speaker 2: the vast majority of us are not competing for the Olympics.
34:07
Speaker 2: You know what, once we get past age eighteen, we
34:10
Speaker 2: are never going to face the competition that we faced.
34:14
Speaker 2: That like matters again because your athletic pursuits don't really
34:18
Speaker 2: impact your life once you get past high school in general.
34:21
Speaker 2: And so it's something where if this five k didn't
34:25
Speaker 2: go well for me. Okay, that's fine because I'm not
34:28
Speaker 2: earning any money off it anyways, Like I'm just doing
34:30
Speaker 2: it to see how well I do it. So this
34:32
Speaker 2: idea that like I need artificial intelligence to tell me
34:35
Speaker 2: how to like plan faster. No, I read some stuff
34:39
Speaker 2: from people who seem to know what they're talking about.
34:41
Speaker 2: I tried it, and I ran better times than I
34:42
Speaker 2: ever have, which was cool, But it like, would artificial
34:46
Speaker 2: intelligence have been able to be like do this, do that,
34:48
Speaker 2: do this? No, Because the amount of training I had
34:51
Speaker 2: was dictated by my schedule, which is dictated by my
34:54
Speaker 2: work and what I need to do with my kids
34:55
Speaker 2: and family and this. So I don't know that I
34:57
Speaker 2: could have done anything differently anyways. So yeah, artificial intelligence
35:02
Speaker 2: is kind of starting to feel just like I don't know.
35:07
Speaker 2: It's like when whoever the fast food guys were that,
35:10
Speaker 2: you know, tried to get it into their their drive
35:15
Speaker 2: through lane and they were like, oh no, this is
35:17
Speaker 2: actually really bad, we shouldn't do this. This feels like
35:20
Speaker 2: it might go the same route, you know, Like, is
35:23
Speaker 2: the AI going to be like, hey, if you want
35:24
Speaker 2: to be faster tomorrow, do a fifty thousand mile run today. Well, okay,
35:30
Speaker 2: if you insist here the artificial intelligence, why not. I
35:34
Speaker 2: want to cover this story that we didn't get to
35:36
Speaker 2: in our one yes, which is house in Medford accidentally
35:42
Speaker 2: had three hundred and seventy five gallons of oil delivered
35:44
Speaker 2: to it but doesn't have an oil tank in the
35:47
Speaker 2: basement anymore. Apparently they converted to that gas for their
35:50
Speaker 2: heating a few years back, but didn't get rid of
35:52
Speaker 2: the pipe that you know, sticks out of the house
35:54
Speaker 2: for if you're not listening to our show in the Northeast.
35:57
Speaker 2: In the Northeast, one of the ways that you can
35:59
Speaker 2: heat your home almost through home heating oil, and it's
36:02
Speaker 2: basically you have these giant tanks usually in your basement
36:05
Speaker 2: that oil gets you know, filled into them a couple
36:08
Speaker 2: times a year, and that oil is then burned in
36:11
Speaker 2: order to provide heat for your house. This house had
36:14
Speaker 2: the tanks removed at some point, but they didn't get
36:16
Speaker 2: rid of the pipe that fed in and so oil
36:20
Speaker 2: guys shows up, thinks it's the right house, hooks up
36:22
Speaker 2: pipes in three hundred and seventy five gallons of oil,
36:25
Speaker 2: leaves and it turns out there was nothing on the
36:27
Speaker 2: other end of the pipe, and so the basement just
36:29
Speaker 2: had three hundred and seventy five gallons of oil going
36:31
Speaker 2: into it.
36:31
Speaker 3: Ew tough beat, tough beat, you know, it's uh, I mean.
36:37
Speaker 4: How do you get that out of your basement?
36:39
Speaker 3: They cruise there, but.
36:42
Speaker 4: They said they put it into barrels, like they threw
36:45
Speaker 4: it on some sort of absorbent and then shoveld into
36:48
Speaker 4: barrel Like still like, oh my goodness, yeah, I mean
36:52
Speaker 4: it's a mess.
36:52
Speaker 2: It's the kind of thing where you know.
36:54
Speaker 4: Not to mention the smell.
36:56
Speaker 2: The good news. You probably find out about that quickly
36:59
Speaker 2: because you know, you're like, something's wrong when you go
37:02
Speaker 2: into the basement and it happens to be the three
37:04
Speaker 2: inches of oil I have on the ground. The bad
37:07
Speaker 2: news is like, what kind of remediation do you need
37:10
Speaker 2: to do in order to make sure that's not like
37:12
Speaker 2: leeching pollutants into you know, the the walls and stuff
37:15
Speaker 2: that then you're breathing in for the rest of the time.
37:18
Speaker 2: I don't know.
37:19
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is like a hundred times worse than what
37:21
Speaker 3: we were talking about with used cars when someone smokes
37:24
Speaker 3: in them and you buy that new car or that
37:26
Speaker 3: used car from them, like this. How could this not
37:29
Speaker 3: just be within the property for a long time, or
37:32
Speaker 3: how can you be convinced that it's fully cleaned out.
37:34
Speaker 3: It's tough, tough meat.
37:37
Speaker 2: Doesn't doesn't feel good, but hey, at least that oil
37:40
Speaker 2: delivery happened. I guess let's see what else do we
37:47
Speaker 2: want to cover here?
37:49
Speaker 4: Kind of just this rally.
37:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, market's cranking, you got something, you got markets up
37:54
Speaker 2: another basically one percent across major industries today. SMP's back
37:57
Speaker 2: above sixty eight hundred, so within a couple points of
37:59
Speaker 2: all time highs. And this is why again, I know
38:03
Speaker 2: everyone got a little panicky last week, but you never
38:07
Speaker 2: know how these things are going to evolve. And this
38:09
Speaker 2: has been a crazy resilient market for the last six months.
38:14
Speaker 2: Every time we've had one of these you know, three
38:16
Speaker 2: four five percent tests, it's bounced from it. I'm not
38:19
Speaker 2: saying that this means like things are all clear, because
38:22
Speaker 2: I don't know where we're going, but man, like, you're
38:25
Speaker 2: talking like a three hundred point rally on the S
38:27
Speaker 2: and P five hundred since Friday morning now, and it's
38:32
Speaker 2: pretty impressive. I gotta say it's it's pretty darn impressive
38:36
Speaker 2: what we're seeing we're gonna take a quick break for well,
38:39
Speaker 2: the whole Thanksgiving holiday and everything, but to anyone listening,
38:43
Speaker 2: hope you get where you're traveling safely, hope you can
38:45
Speaker 2: spend some time with friends and family, and hope you
38:48
Speaker 2: have a great Thanksgiving and post Thanksgiving weekend. We'll see
38:52
Speaker 2: you back here next week. Four