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The Breakout Candidates That Will Either Win or Lose Your Draft · Upper Hand Fantasy

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: If you don't know which breakout candidates to trust this draft season and which ones are going to cost you, this is exactly what you need.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: I tiered every major breakout for 2026: real ones, overrated ones, and a not happening tier for guys who simply aren't breaking out this year.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: This isn't gonna be a Hooter draft list, but this is gonna help you identify the players getting too much hype, the fake breakouts that cost you draft capital that you can't get back.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Your league mates are already locked in on some of them.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: This is how you get ahead of it.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Last year, I was very loud on Drake May and George Pickens having breakout years, both paid off.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: This list is built the same way.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: Here's how we're gonna do this.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: I call the breakout meter four tiers ready to explode on the radar, dark horse, and not happening.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: Every player goes into one of these categories.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start with Devontae Smith.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's a pretty easy determination for Devonta Smith to have the best season he's ever had in the NFL without AJ Brown.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now, obviously, the Eagles have ranked bottom 10 in pass rate for four straight seasons under four different offensive coordinators, but a talent like AJ Brown was still able to put up a top 12 fantasy season in three of those four years.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Now, with Devontae Smith, he's had games without AJ Brown.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: And in those games, he's averaged nine targets per game, even in an offense that prioritizes the run.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: Only seven wide receivers averaged nine plus targets a game last year.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: They all finished top 10 in PPR points per game.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Not only that, in those games without him, first in targets per route run, third in yards per route run, almost hitting three yards per route run.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: So pretty elite.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: His fantasy points per route run go up to eighth among wide receivers, also without AJ Brown.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: So don't get it twisted.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Devontae Smith is definitely an alpha receiver when it comes to talent and ability to earn targets, which leads me to AJ Brown's 30% vacated target share, which is obviously up for grabs.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of people might point to someone like Mikhail Lemon as taking a lot of that away.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: But rookie wide receivers who get drafted in the first round average 18.6% target share in year one.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: So this is pointing to a complete Devontae Smith takeover.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: And when you look a little deeper, three of Smitty's best four routes are the slants, digs, and posts in terms of efficiency.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: And AJ Brown ran way more of each of those than Devontae Smith last year.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: Now all that belongs to Devontae Smith, who is absolutely ready to explode.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: All right, let's move on to Ladd McConkey.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of times you get a change in situation and the ability and talent get showcased as a result.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's what's going to happen with Ladd McConkey this season with Mike McDaniel taking over.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: We already know that Ladd has a quarterback who can get it done in a big way, but Greg Roman ran a lot of three wide receiver sets.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: Keenan Allen was still there last year, demanding a 23% target share.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: But now with Mike McDaniel calling plays, you likely have more condensed formations, more two wide receiver sets while competing with only one wide receiver on the field a lot of times, probably Quentin Johnson in this case.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: No Keenan Allen as well.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: So just off of those two things, we should see a major jump in target share for McConkey, who, if you just don't know, the guy's really talented.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, it's just a matter of time as long as he can stay healthy.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: As a receiver, McConkey separated with the best of them last year, but just didn't get the production to follow suit.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: Remember, he was 15 yards per route run as a rookie, seventh and first downs per route run.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's a killer combo that is predictive of future success.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I think this is the year we see McConkey fully break out.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: He has to be on the radar.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of uncertainty around whether Kenneth Walker can come through on his price tag.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: And I think most people are worried about him actually holding up in a workhorse type role.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: And I get it, you know, but it's really tough to try and predict whether a guy will get hurt or not.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: But after the Chiefs gave him the most guaranteed money ever for a running back, historically, those running backs have gone on to have huge year once.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: The incentive is there to feed Walker.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the reason why they signed him, he's one of the most elusive running backs in the NFL, the highest missed tackle rate among qualifying running backs last year.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: He also had the second highest explosive run rate as well.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: There's basically no competition for Walker on early downs.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: I would imagine a guy like uh maybe Amari Demarcado takes on that passing down roll, take away some passing work, but you know, Walker's gonna be running a lot of routes on early downs, and we've seen him start to get very involved in the passing game recently.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: We're really drafting Walker here for the touchdown equity and that big playability and that early down workhorse role, but it's been a talent issue.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: The backfield combined ranked top seven, particularly on this Chiefs' offense.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: Now, they haven't had a single running back go nuts in fantasy lately, but ranked top 10 for fantasy seven of the last eight seasons.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: And Andy Reid has had a fantasy running back averaged 18 points per game 10 different times in his career as a play caller.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: So there is some precedence here.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: Walker is ready to explode.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk to Ash and Genty.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: He is the breakout that many can call a mile away.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: He had a very good rookie year, he wasn't overly efficient, but when you strip it down to what he did as a player outside of his environment last year, he was pretty damn good.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: 84% of his rushing yards last year was after contact, which is an absolutely ridiculous number.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: And we know he's gonna get volume.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: He had over 300 opportunities as a rookie, already had over 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns in a terrible offensive environment.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: So you add a better offensive line, a better quarterback, and most importantly, an extremely competent offensive play caller and Clint Kobiak.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: There's no reason why Genty can't absolutely go ham this season, especially if he stays on the field in passing situations, unlike last year.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: And I see no reason why that wouldn't be the case this year after he was seventh in target share among running backs.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: He is ready to explode as one of the rare Bellcow running backs in 2026.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about Zay Flowers.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: He's one of those wide receivers who people are kind of tired of, right?
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: The fatigue sets in with guys who are good but aren't difference makers in fantasy.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: Flowers has never been a difference maker for fantasy, but it's important to note that the biggest predictor of future difference makers are guys like Flowers who have shown huge underlying elements that turn into those big breakout years after a change in situation.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: He was seventh in target share, third in yards per route run last year.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: He was eighth in fantasy points per route run, tenth in weighted opportunity, which basically combines target share and air yards.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: So that's pretty good.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: So the underlying metrics are there, right?
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: He was really consistent last year with only three games less than 10 PPR fantasy points, but he was also not winning weeks with only three top 10 finishes last year.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: But this year, Lamar's gonna be way healthier.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: He was a shell of himself last season, but also there's a lot of optimism around the new offensive coordinator, Declan Doyle, who was Ben Johnson's offensive coordinator last year.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: We should expect more play action, a faster offense, and possibly even more passing plays overall.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: Three things that I think will help both Lamar Jackson's fantasy production as well as their clear number one target, Zay Flowers, who is 100% on the radar to break out next year.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about Brock Bowers.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: There's not much to be said about Brock Bowers and his ceiling this year.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: We simply have to treat him like a high-end wide receiver.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: You look at what Clint Kubiak did for JSN last year, and you have to imagine that Kubiak's schemes Bower up in a way that makes him unstoppable.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: No one had a bigger gap in target share between JSN and the next guy.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: And you look at Bowers, who's the next guy, there is a huge talent gap.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: So very similar situation here.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: Bowers had almost 1200 yards on 112 catches in his rookie year.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: That is some really good precedence to determine a player who can absolutely go ballistic this year.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: He's the first tight end off the board for me, not Trey McBride.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: I just think there's more ability there, but I trust the quarterback situation.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: Number one, the play caller a lot more, number two, and number three, there's no one in the same realm of talent as a receiver on the Raiders right now, like I mentioned.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: So he had the PCL and bone bruise issues last year, really slowed him down as most PCL injuries do to players.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: So we should be expecting a brand new Brock Bowers this year, and he's absolutely ready to explode as the clear number one target in Vegas.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: Christian Watson, I don't think a lot of people realize that Christian Watson came back from an ACL tear in week eight of last year.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's because he did so well that people forgot that he was coming back from that injury.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: He finished wide receiver 22 the rest of the year once he came back.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: You look at the weeks that he was actually running a full route participation.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: I'm thinking 80% or more, and that was weeks 10 to 14.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: And during those five weeks, he was wide receiver 13 overall in points per game.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: And you look at the number of weeks he finished as a top 12 wide receiver, basically a wide receiver one, 40% of weeks he finished as a top 12 wide receiver.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: That was a higher percentage than guys like Nico Collins, Chris Olabe, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb in terms of yards per route run last year, 2.67 yards per route run.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: That's pretty damn good.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: That was fourth among all wide receivers with 200 or more routes again, coming off a 20 CL.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: You look at 2026 now, not coming off an injury, and then you realize that coming off the injury last year, he was eighth in fantasy points per snap, fourth in fantasy points per touch among all wide receivers.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: They just extended him too, right?
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: 27.5 million dollars per year.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: So I think he's the clear number one wide receiver for the Packers right now.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: He's the only wide receiver that you know is going to be on the field for basically every passing player, right?
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: Like we don't know how much playing time Matthew Golden is going to have.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: We know that Jaden Reed could potentially be kept in the slot for the most part in three wide receiver sets.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Too much upside here.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: He is 100% on the radar to fully break out in 2026.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start Parker Washington.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: Earlier in the offseason, their issue with Parker Washington was that we just didn't know where he would fit, right?
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: Was he gonna play in a slot?
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: What happens when Travis Hunter comes back?
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: Was he gonna rotate with him?
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_00: But after OTAs, it's becoming more and more clear that he's looking to be a starting wide receiver in two wide receiver sets, which is absolutely huge.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: We know that Brian Thomas Jr.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: is likely gonna be playing that X receiver role, more downfield stuff.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: Even if he and Trevor Lawrence had a better connection on those, the routes that he's running and where they'll be connecting is not necessarily a very fantasy-friendly role.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: Now, on a per target basis, those are very high value targets, but there isn't gonna be as many of them.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: You want the short and intermediate stuff to kind of mix in with the deep stuff because you want that reliability on a week-to-week basis.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: Parker Washington can provide exactly that.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: Only Puka Nakura average more yards per route run than Parker Washington in the final six weeks of the season, and that was when he was the wide receiver 13 overall in points per game.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: I just don't like to ignore these types of sample sizes when players show that they're fully capable of putting up big numbers when they're given the opportunity.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: Travis Hunter doesn't seem to be a mainstay on offense right now.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: As of right now, it looks like Parker Washington's gonna be an every down player in terms of him potentially being in the slot in 11 personnel in three wide receiver sets, and then in two wide receiver sets, he's likely gonna be playing that flank role.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: And if all this is true, looking at what he did at the end of last season in those six weeks, Parker Washington is gonna be one of those dark horses who can absolutely break out in 2026.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about Trevion Henderson, everyone's favorite breakout candidate this year at running back.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, he's a big play waiting to happen.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: He had some huge weeks last year, almost took the roll away from Ramondre Stevenson after his fumbling issues.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: But here's the problem Ramondre took it right back.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: But then when you look at these numbers, top five and missed tackles, force per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, explosive run rate.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: So Henderson, oh wait, those are Ramondre's numbers from last year.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: All the things you love about Henderson, Ramondre was doing a lot of it as well.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe not the 90-yard touchdown that Henderson's capable of, but he has elements of that in his game.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: And Ramondre does the dirty work between the tackles, and that's what they want as their primary running back.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: After the Patriots' week 14 by last year, all the way up to the Super Bowl, Henderson played on only 35% of snaps.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: He had only 33% of running back touches.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: All the short yardage work, all the two-minute work, all the third down work went to Stevenson.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: That's the last we saw of this backfield.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: So, what is telling people that this is going to change going into this season?
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: The only way I see Henderson breaking out is if Stevenson gets hurt or starts fumbling like crazy again.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: Otherwise, it's not happening.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: All right, let's talk Rashi Rice.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, going through his legal issues, but he had a cleanup surgery on his knee.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: He's out of jail now.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: That's good.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: But we didn't hear anything about his probation violation affecting his upcoming season.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: That's not why he went to jail, by the way.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: He went to back to jail because the judge was like, You're gonna violate probation instead of instead of serving her 30 days later, let's serve it right now.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: I don't care about you knee.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's basically what happened.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: But anyway, I'm gonna move forward with the assumption that Rashi will be on the field for all 17 games this year, assuming he stays healthy.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: The upside is astronomical.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: The only receivers to average more PPR fantasy points per game than Rice over the last two seasons have been Jamar Chase, Puka Nakua, JSN, and Amara Sean Brown.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: That's it.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: So he's out of jail, he's gonna be ready for training camp.
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_00: The Chiefs didn't add anyone who's gonna compete with him to be the clear number one target for Patrick Mahomes.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: He's gonna be in value in drafts because of all of the off-the-field stuff, but he's set to explode.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk Jalen Waddle.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: So a theme you'll be seeing here is that wide receiver breakout candidates are usually from a pool of wide receivers who have amazing underlying metrics and a change in situation or offensive environment.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the case with Jalen Waddle this year.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: If you look at the underlying metric, you're looking at someone who over the last five seasons had the 13th best combination of yards per route run and first downs per route run among all wide receivers.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: And by the way, those two metrics are two of the most important metrics when it comes to evaluating wide receivers and predicting their futures.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: Why is the offensive environment better?
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: Well, he's going from Tua, who was a very, very low volume passer who also didn't throw the ball deep, and his time to throw was second fastest in the NFL last year, bottom five in deep passing rate.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_00: Then you look at Bo Ninks, who was third in the NFL in deep throws last year, seventh longest time to throw, the highest volume passer of any quarterback last year.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: That tells you something right there.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_00: And when you compare Waddle to Cortland Sutton, he basically clears Sutton in every category, every relevant target and productivity metric.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: We're talking targets per route run, yards per route run, first downs per route run, fantasy points per route run, all of it.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: I think the dig route and those horizontally breaking routes, which by the way is historically correlated more to future fantasy points, those routes that they've tried to get Sutton to do simply wasn't working.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: Sutton's been in the lower third of efficiency when it comes to those routes, but Waddle has been literally number one among qualifying wide receivers in yards per route run on digs.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: Sean Pain basically went out and got the best dig route runner in the game to unlock that.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: It's a huge part of the offense, which is why they gave up that first round pick and more for Jalen Waddle.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: You look at what he did in Miami last year in a rough offensive environment, he was still top ten among qualifying wide receivers in targets, yards, first downs, and fantasy points per route run.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: He is ready to explode.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: By the way, all the players I'm talking about in this episode will be in an interactive breakout meter tracker that I'm giving to you as a gift for free.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: If my opinions change on any of these guys throughout the offseason, you'll see it there.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_00: You can also put your own notes in there and more.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_00: Just find me on Instagram at upperhand fantasy, DM me the word tracker, and I'll send it over for free.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk Baychell Tutin.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: I really don't think the Jaguars backfield situation is as complicated as a lot of people are making it out to be, especially after finding out that Chris Rodriguez just went through some offseason foot surgery.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, he's gonna be back at some point in training camp, but Bashville Tutin is clearly the lead dog here at this point.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: He was handpicked by Liam Cohn in the draft, just like Liam Cohen handpicked Bucky Irving in the draft.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: You saw what Bucky Irving was able to do.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: He was an efficiency monster in college, so was Bashul Tutin.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: We're talking missed tackles forced, yards after contact, breakaway rate, all the stuff that you want to see when it comes to a running back.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: No one was more efficient than him besides Ash and Genty in that draft class, who, by the way, wasn't even a power four back in the first place.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: But Tutin has size, speed, pass catching ability, a lot of the tools that we look for.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_00: We saw some really good flashes from Tutan last year when playing that relief role for Travis Etienne.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: So why now, where Cluton is clearly in position to take over that ETN role on one of the better offenses in the NFL?
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: Are we having hesitancy around the situation?
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: Chris Rodriguez is a solid running back, a good early-down guy, but he's not a pass catcher by any means.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: He's been on practice squad since he joined the league.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: He's not dynamic, he's not someone who's gonna come in and to take away a big portion of Tootin's workload.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: Tootin's likely gonna have the ETN roles, not in every down role, but basically having a role on all three downs.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think Lakeen Allen is gonna have a role as well, the same role he had last year, though, basically having zero impact in terms of production, just coming on the field for pass blocking, being on the field in you know, third and long, certain two-minute situations, and that sort of thing.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: Outside of that, Tutin's likely getting the goal line role, like he was stealing goal line touches from Travis Etienne last year as well.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: He's gonna be the primary pass catcher on early downs, too.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_00: That's not gonna be Chris Rodriguez.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: Tootin might not have a RB1 fantasy season this year.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: Etienne had 1400 total yards last year.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think that's a huge bar to chase with Tootin.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: I think that he's gonna be good enough to provide top 15 or even top 12 upside this season.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: He is definitely someone who is on the radar to break out this year.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk Colston Loveland and Luther Burden combined.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: When you look at the bear situation, you're like, man, like who should I prioritize in my draft?
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: Should I prioritize Luther Burton?
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: Should I prioritize Romo Dunze or Colston Loveland?
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: Those are the top three guys, right?
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be a very condensed target share with those three guys, which is a good thing.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_00: And you probably can't go wrong, like choosing one of these guys.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I mean, the most expensive guy and the most risky to me is Luther Burden, but hey, like let's get there.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: It is possible that you can't go wrong, but one of these guys is going to be the best value.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: One of them is gonna be a potential league winner here.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: If I had to choose right now who I would want, it's Colston Loveland.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: I think a big reason for that is the potential positional advantage he can give you at the tight end position.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't be surprised if he also finishes with more fantasy points per game than both of those wide receivers.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: Now, we have to be clear that Romo Dunze was obviously still dealing with his foot injury last year.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: Luther Burden was also playing during that span towards the end of the year when Colson Loveland absolutely went off, but he wasn't anywhere close to as involved as Lovelin was.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, when Burden was on the field with both Odunze and Lovelin, his yards per route run dipped a ton.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: The yards per route run number with Burden is probably one of his best selling points, right?
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: He was up there at number three behind Puka and JSN in yards per route run.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, you have to bring that minimum route number down a little bit, but with Odunze on the field, that dipped to 1.1.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_00: And then with Loveland, it dropped to 1.5.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_00: He was sitting at 2.83 yards per route run as a whole.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: So not the best, right?
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's something to keep in mind.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now, with that said, I do think that Luther Burden 100% has a chance of fully breaking out this year.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: I was very high on him coming out.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: He showed that he has that big playability, really, really good after the catch with the ball in his hands.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: He's attached to Ben Johnson, he's attached to a quarterback who's really good off script, even though the offense doesn't really support the off-script stuff as much as it could.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: At the end of the day, Burden is a really good talent.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: I just have questions around whether he can surpass both Romo Dunze and Colson Loveland in the target pecking order and production pecking order.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: Now you look at how Loveland was prioritized late in the year last year.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: In the last four games of the season, including the playoffs, you're looking at a 10-target game, 13 target game, 15 targets, and 10 targets.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_00: He averaged almost 95 receiving yards per game during that span.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: His yards per route run was a whopping 2.8 during that span as well.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_00: 35% targets per route run, almost a 29% target share, just absolutely bonkers in terms of his actual production and efficiency, especially as a tight end.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_00: It was very, very apparent that the passing game was revolved around him.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_00: And the fact that Ben Johnson said this offseason that they're gonna take his route tree to the next level, that's music to my ears because you actually look deeper at the routes he was running last year.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_00: You look at the slant, only 7.9% of his routes were slants, but 4.37 yards per route run.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely insane.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: The post route, a little bit of a deeper route, right?
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_00: But 4.53 yards per route run, only 5% usage there.
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_00: The corner route, only 7.3 usage there, but 2.44 yards per route run.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_00: If he's actually going to truly unlock Colson Loveland's routes and give him more of those particular routes where he showed extreme efficiency, we're looking at a huge year for Lovelin.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna say that Colson Loveland is ready to explode and that Luther Burden is 100% on the radar to break out.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk Tetteroan McMillan, man.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_00: He had a great rookie year, 1,000 yard season, all that.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: But then what are the reasons why he'll significantly add to that this year?
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: Is his quarterback situation changing or getting better?
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_00: Probably not.
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's mid at best.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_00: Same quarterback situation as last year.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: Bryce Young never threw for more than 3,100 passing yards in a season.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_00: Did he prove that he's an alpha wide receiver in the NFL?
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think so.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think he has a talent to do that.
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_00: But if that's the case, why did Jalen Coker, who just got paid, have more receptions, yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points per game than him from week 12 on last year?
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: A full-on breakout in 2026, not happening.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about Emeka Ibuka.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_00: It was really a tail of two halves for Ibuka in terms of production last year.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: Now, to be clear, the opportunity was pretty much there all year long.
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_00: He was target earning all year long, but he kind of needed Mike Evans on the field.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: With Mike Evans healthy last year, let's break this down a little bit.
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, so when Mike Evans was healthy, weeks one through three, 23% target share for Ibuka, 17 fantasy points per game, wide receiver 10.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: Awesome.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Chris Gowan came back in weeks four and five.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_00: Evans still playing, by the way, 24 target share, 50 air yard share, 25.7 fantasy points per game.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_00: He was the wide receiver three during that two week span.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_00: Now you look at that totality of weeks of one through five, competing with both Mike Evans and Chris Gowin, 2.7 yards per route run.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_00: That was fifth among all wide receivers, solid enough target share at 22%, 38% air yard share and 20.5 fantasy points per game.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: That was wide receiver three and points per game through five weeks.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_00: So Evans goes down in week six to fourteen.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_00: Igbuka was kind of forced to play a lot of X receiver.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_00: Now he's still got the elite volume, 27% target share, right?
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_00: 8.9 targets per game, which was eighth among all wide receivers.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: Target earning is an ability, guys.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, so he has to get credit for that.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: 17.2 expected fantasy points per game the rest of the way, which is insane.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_00: That would have been wide receiver 10 overall, but only 8.9 actual fantasy points per game, which ended up being the wide receiver 44 during that span, the actual wide receiver 44 compared to the expected wide receiver 10, right?
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, huge underperforming number compared to what was expected from him.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_00: Now, me personally, I look at the production that he's had when competing with two pretty good wide receivers and look at the opportunity that was given to him, which is not easy to get, not easy to command as a rookie wide receiver, especially in the first few weeks of you being an NFL wide receiver.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's very underappreciated when it comes to people looking at what rookies are able to do when they come into the NFL.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: And when you look at his role as the Z, which is his more natural role, which is what his offensive coordinator, Zach Robinson, said he's going to play this year.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_00: Thank God, you know, that's when he's actually legit.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: Now, he just didn't seem comfortable playing the ex-receiver role.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_00: And now with Zach Robinson coming in, he himself said that he's in a live in one spot, and that's the Z flanker, which is exactly what we want to hear.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's where he dominated last year.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_00: Now, because of all that, I think he's gonna be really good this year.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_00: I think that Chris Godwin is gonna be pretty undervalued as well.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_00: A little bit of competition there.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_00: I think he's gonna be very usable for fantasy.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, there's a lot of people who believe in Jalen Millen too.
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_00: But my bet is that Emeka Ibuka is a receiver that you want on the Bucks and someone who is fully capable of having an insane ceiling and just fully breaks out this year.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_00: I do think I don't know if I'm ready to put him in the ready to explode category just yet because of the competition that he has at receiver.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: I think Chris Goblin's gonna take away just enough, but I'm gonna put him on the hundred percent on the radar to fully break out this year.
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk Josh Downs, man.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_00: Every year I talk about Josh Downs, obviously, and every year I'm a little bit disappointed.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_00: And that disappointment is basically rooted in him not being an every down player.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_00: In three wide receiver sets, he was on the field, but he had to compete with Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Tyler Warren for targets.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_00: This year, with Michael Pittman gone, it seems like Shane Steichen is actually gonna give him that role that we've all been waiting for, at least what I've been waiting for.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: That means his route participation is gonna go way up, hopefully over that 80 to 85 percent threshold where a normal full-time wide receiver would be.
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_00: You look at the fact that Daniel Jones is coming off an Achilles injury, is he gonna be sending a deep constantly to Alec Pierce, or is he gonna be depending on his short and intermediate targets in Josh Downs and Tyler Warren?
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's gonna be the case.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: Now, when you look at a guy like Josh Downs, who is top 10 in career targets per route run for any player over their first three years over the last five years, I mean, that's really, really good, right?
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: You take that target rate and that could potentially turn into target share this year, which is which is why I really believe in Josh Downs as a player because of the target earning ability that he's had, but also the production that he showed, especially in the 2024 season.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: In that season among wide receivers with 300 or more routes, he was 17th among them in target share.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_00: We're talking more than a hundred receivers here, right?
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: You look at his first downs per route run, he was 13th among all receivers.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_00: You look at his combination of yards per route run and first downs per route run.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: He was 15th, man, right after Jamar Chase, before Zay Flowers, before CD Land, before Malik Neighbors, he's got to be on the radar to break out this year.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: Potential full time role, huge on his potential, huge on his stock this year.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: He's a hundred percent a dark horse candidate to break out in twenty twenty six.