Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / Inflation Surprise: Is the Fed’s Easing Path in Trouble?

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Inflation Surprise: Is the Fed’s Easing Path in Trouble? · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: a donation Today. Face is the Financial Exchange with Mike
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  Speaker 1: Armstrong and Mark Vandetdy.
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  Speaker 2: Good morning, Happy Friday. Glad you made it this far
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  Speaker 2: with all of your kids still at home and not
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: in school. Just talking to Ed Lambert this morning, and
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  Speaker 2: many many schools still closed down on the Cape and
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: in southern Masters.
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  Speaker 3: How about how about your town, Tucker.
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  Speaker 4: You guys had two straight weeks of no school because
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  Speaker 4: of vacation last week and this week with the storm.
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  Speaker 2: As I said to Ed this morning, your kids are
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: going to have a very patriotic day of school on
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: July fourth, and I'm excited for them.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: No, we're pulling them out.
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: We're not letting them stay in past this makeup.
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  Speaker 3: Time's gonna start home schooling.
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, no, it's he's seven years old. Are you gonna leave
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  Speaker 4: him in school for that long?
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  Speaker 5: No? No, it's summer.
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  Speaker 4: Come on, see you later, let's go.
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  Speaker 2: I'm excited for these kids going into today. So markets
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  Speaker 2: are off today, Mark yesterday, different reasons seemingly the cause
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  Speaker 2: between them. But today we had a reading, a course,
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  Speaker 2: an economic reading that frankly, you know, I didn't even
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  Speaker 2: bring up as a major news event on the calendar
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  Speaker 2: because I don't really think we pay a lot of
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  Speaker 2: attention to the producer price Index. I don't know a
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  Speaker 2: lot of analysts who do pay a ton of attention
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  Speaker 2: to it. I don't think it's really predictive of consumer inflation,
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  Speaker 2: and so most ignore it. But there's a few things
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  Speaker 2: going into this year that I think most investors on
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  Speaker 2: average anticipate. One of them is inflation continuing to come
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  Speaker 2: down and interest rates continue to come down. I don't
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  Speaker 2: think you believe that, but I think the average investor
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  Speaker 2: has thought that that was the case. I think that
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  Speaker 2: the average investor expects the AI boom to continue, both
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  Speaker 2: in terms of spending as well as rollout of the technology.
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  Speaker 2: I think, again, you know, to set the floor on
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  Speaker 2: some status quos, I think generally speaking, the average investor
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  Speaker 2: expected tariffs to remain in place but kind of be
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  Speaker 2: background news. And today one of those items that I think, again,
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  Speaker 2: there's a lot, not a lot of things that investors
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  Speaker 2: agree on, but I think generally speaking, the average investor
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  Speaker 2: was thinking that would be the status quot for twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty six, and this morning what the news was was
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  Speaker 2: potentially breaking down one of those core expectations of inflation
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  Speaker 2: coming down, there by interest rates coming down. I think
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  Speaker 2: part of what markets are doing right now is reacting
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  Speaker 2: to that potential contradiction.
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  Speaker 5: I'd be a little surprised if inflation jumped. If what
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  Speaker 5: we saw today in producer prices, which is you've already
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  Speaker 5: pointed out, is not used by people that do that
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  Speaker 5: do so called time series forecasting. I'll just use the
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  Speaker 5: term people like me because it doesn't really help your models,
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  Speaker 5: so I don't pay much attention to it. But when
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  Speaker 5: it comes in really hot, that might contain useful information.
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  Speaker 5: I don't want to dismiss it. And with respect to
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  Speaker 5: the expectation that inflation would go down or go up
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  Speaker 5: this year, I was originally in the should stay elevated
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  Speaker 5: camp because growth appeared to be above potential. Then we
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  Speaker 5: got that fourth quarter reading that set me a little
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  Speaker 5: bit back on my heels. Overall growth in twenty twenty
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  Speaker 5: five was far slower than twenty twenty four.
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  Speaker 2: So let's start off before we get into what the
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  Speaker 2: reading was. Can you just explain to listeners, like the
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  Speaker 2: difference between what exactly producer price index is measuring compared
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  Speaker 2: to the more used consumer price index that we do
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  Speaker 2: spend a lot of time on this program going through
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  Speaker 2: it is another measure of inflation. But it's not what
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  Speaker 2: you and I are paying. It's a survey rather of businesses.
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  Speaker 3: Correct.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, that was going to be more or less my
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  Speaker 5: my explanation. Firms pay one set of prices, we pay
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  Speaker 5: another set of prices. In theory, PPI should feed into CPI.
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  Speaker 5: In practice it doesn't really help you predict it. Of course,
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  Speaker 5: as you pointed out.
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  Speaker 2: For the last few years, you have not seen producer
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  Speaker 2: price index indices very elevated. But you've all heard us
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  Speaker 2: talk about how during twenty twenty two, the consumer Price
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  Speaker 2: Index hit a high of almost nine percent year over year.
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  Speaker 2: This more volatile producer price Index hit a high of
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  Speaker 2: twenty two percent year over year in June of twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty two. So it can be a bit more volatile
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  Speaker 2: in terms of its swings.
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  Speaker 5: More recently, it is more heavily weighted. I just looked
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  Speaker 5: it up to confirm this. It's heavily weighted toward inputs
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  Speaker 5: like commodities, right, which are weighted. Therefore, which are weighted
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  Speaker 5: which are given a much more smaller weight. I guess
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  Speaker 5: I should just say in CPI, the one we're all
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  Speaker 5: used to measuring consumer prices by.
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  Speaker 2: So the big news of this morning, core wholesale prices,
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  Speaker 2: the producer Price Index when you strip out the food
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  Speaker 2: and energy part of it, increased eight tenths of a
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  Speaker 2: percent in January. The expectations were for a three tenths
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  Speaker 2: of a percent increase. So again volatile reading, volatile measure anyway,
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  Speaker 2: but kind of blue expectations out of the water. And
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  Speaker 2: I don't have really a reading of how rare something
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  Speaker 2: like that is. But to put it plainly, when you're
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  Speaker 2: expecting three tens of percent increase, you don't really care
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  Speaker 2: on this reading if it's four or five tenths of percent,
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  Speaker 2: but you start to care when it comes in at
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  Speaker 2: eight tenths of a percent, well well above any expectations.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, and that would be a surprise because again, think
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  Speaker 5: about what's happening in the larger economy. We saw growth
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  Speaker 5: slow a lot in the fourth quarter. Growth overall in
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  Speaker 5: twenty twenty five was slow. I know I'm repeating myself,
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  Speaker 5: but it's worth bearing this in mind. It was a
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  Speaker 5: lot slower than in twenty twenty four. Two point two
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  Speaker 5: versus what two point eight in twenty twenty four, I
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  Speaker 5: think at two point nine and twenty twenty three, So
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  Speaker 5: growth is slowed a lot, and that may have been
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  Speaker 5: in the cards because growth was rapid coming out of COVID.
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  Speaker 5: All the stimulus, monetary and fiscal. Slower growth, all else equal,
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  Speaker 5: should mean lower inflation. I changed my tune a little
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  Speaker 5: bit last week when I saw the GDP, the economic
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  Speaker 5: growth number. We appear to be growing at about potential
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  Speaker 5: or trend rate. That should again, all else will mean
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  Speaker 5: less upward pressure on inflation. So I could see inflation
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  Speaker 5: settling down in the I don't know, two and a
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  Speaker 5: half percent if you want to measure it by PC,
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  Speaker 5: the way the Fed does this year. The wrinkle there
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  Speaker 5: is inflation expectations. They remain high. And I don't know
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  Speaker 5: what this month's PPI reading is telling us. Is it
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  Speaker 5: just a bunch of one offs that'll sort of even
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  Speaker 5: out with a couple of more months worth of data,
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  Speaker 5: or have we missed something? Of people who do the
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  Speaker 5: type of analysis I do, for example, missed something. Is
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  Speaker 5: it expectations pushing prices up? Was there some shock reflected
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  Speaker 5: in core PPI something we didn't filter out. I don't know.
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  Speaker 2: So in either case, I don't think this is a
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  Speaker 2: reading of uh oh, run for the hills. We're heading
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  Speaker 2: back to five percent inflation. I don't think anyone should
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  Speaker 2: read it that way. Just because doucer prices surge in
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  Speaker 2: one month does not mean that will lead to consumer prices.
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  Speaker 2: We might not see any of this reflected in the
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  Speaker 2: ultimate data. What it does do for me, though, is
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  Speaker 2: raise some questions at the Federal Reserve in terms of
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  Speaker 2: what path they continue to go down now in the
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  Speaker 2: intermediate term. The answer was they aren't cutting rates anyway.
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  Speaker 2: Jay Powell's got two more meetings to oversee. The next
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  Speaker 2: one coming up is March eighteenth, so a little eighteen
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  Speaker 2: twenty days away at this stage. There will be another
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  Speaker 2: one in April twenty ninth. But the likelihood of a
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  Speaker 2: rate cut at that March meeting, which a month ago
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  Speaker 2: was sitting around sixteen percent chance of a rate cut
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  Speaker 2: at that March meeting, is now down to almost nothing,
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  Speaker 2: less than four percent probability of a rate cut, according
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  Speaker 2: to Ciman.
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  Speaker 5: I think this is one of those cases, and we
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  Speaker 5: talk about this lot where you can't without a model
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  Speaker 5: in mind, and most people don't have one because you
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  Speaker 5: all do something else than economics and finance for a living.
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  Speaker 5: But you've got to understand how PPI fits into your
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  Speaker 5: bigger like worldview, and that'll prevent you from flying off
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  Speaker 5: the handle every time time you get a data point
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  Speaker 5: you need, you need like a construct or. A model
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  Speaker 5: is a fancy word for that. And I we got
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  Speaker 5: inflation already for January. It was. It suggests some if
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  Speaker 5: you look at measures that trim extremes, it suggests annualized
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  Speaker 5: inflation somewhere in the you know, I twoes, mid twoes,
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  Speaker 5: I twos, maybe low threes. This this seems like a
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  Speaker 5: little bit of an outlier given what we already know
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  Speaker 5: about January.
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  Speaker 3: It does.
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  Speaker 2: I think the only thing I'm really comfortable saying about
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  Speaker 2: this when it comes to the broader picture is a
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  Speaker 2: reading like this makes it less likely.
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  Speaker 3: For the FED to cut rates in the short.
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  Speaker 5: Term, all else equal, If this has a place in
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  Speaker 5: your mental model, it almost certainly.
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  Speaker 1: Don't.
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  Speaker 5: I don't know if it fits into I know this
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  Speaker 5: sounds ridiculous because it seems like it. Why did they
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  Speaker 5: measure it if the Fed doesn't. I don't know if
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: the latest variation on the big economy wide models that
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: they used to estimate how the changes they make will
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  Speaker 5: affect important variables like GDP and unemployment. I don't know
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  Speaker 5: how much of a role PPI plays, or how much
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  Speaker 5: of a role one extreme observation will could play in
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  Speaker 5: their forecasts of the variables that they pay close attention
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  Speaker 5: to the things they're responsible for, consumer price inflation and unemployment.
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  Speaker 2: In any case, this big reading this morning again the
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  Speaker 2: Producer Price Index coming in with a month over month
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  Speaker 2: core reading of eight tens percent. Bump here to say,
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure that you should make a lot of it,
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: but markets seem to be douz off now six hundred
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: and seventy points, SMP off forty six points in the
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: NASDAC off one hundred and eighty. We're going to take
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: a quick break because really the news that has continued
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: to dominate markets throughout this year, and really since October
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: November of last year, has been about tech. It's been
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: about tech, It's been about AI. Let's take a look
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: at the warning signs coming from the tech sector of
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: the market that's next year.
• 10:50
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  Speaker 2: By the way, I was so excited about the producer
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: price index, I didn't didn't give out that we're going
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: to be joined by a bunch of guests today. We've
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: got a busy show. Todd Lutsky's joining us during the
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: next segments. During the eleven o'clock hour, we're going to
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: be joined by Michael sand Totlly from CNBC excited about
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: that interview. We last spoke to him back in January,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: prior to some of the shakeups in the SaaS area
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: and other areas of the AI trade. And then Paul
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: Lamonica from Baron's joining us today at eleven forty five.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: So stay tuned. A lot more to come. But there's
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: a piece from the New York Times today that I think,
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: beyond anything else, has some neat little ways to graphically
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: display data, which is cool, but not why anybody reads
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: the article. The subject is the warning signs flashing from
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: the tech heavy bloat of the S and P five hundred,
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: and obviously with a title like that, I'm looking for, Okay,
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: well what are the warning signs? And I honestly I
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: don't think I came away with any, but they do
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: reiterate some of the points that we've been making over
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: and over on this program, which would be if you're
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: not all already aware, if you are going in and
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: buying an S and P five hundred index fund of
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: one sort or another, or you know, any other index
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: fund that generally replicates on a market capitalization weighted basis
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: the largest US companies, you're making a massive bet on
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: technology and thereby a massive bet on artificial intelligence. That
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: is the real bet that you are making right now,
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: because those companies that are involved in tech make up
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: a huge portion of the total index. And that's really
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: the main thing that I could take away from this.
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: And an outsized waiting compared to any other time in
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: history too.
• 13:39
  Speaker 5: Well, you're betting that investors on average are right to
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: value companies relative to one another the way that they
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: do right now, that nvidious prospects are x times greater
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: than a company with smaller market capitalization, and the smaller
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: weighting the index is mechanical, but it's also but it's
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: not mysterious. Assign those weights to it collectively.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: So for example, here, just to give you some idea
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: of the scale, the president has made energy, low gas prices,
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: the actions in Venezuela a big part of his time
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: in office. The energy sector as a whole is represented
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: by twenty two companies that make up a combined two
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: point zero six trillion dollars. It's less than half of
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: Invidia's market capitalization.
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: That's every single publicly traded.
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's some that are outside of there, but generally,
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: you know, some of the big giant energy companies. Add
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: them all together, they're less than half of in video stock.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: There are other areas of the market that are similar.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: There are thirty one companies that operate in real estate
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: that are publicly traded one point one eight trillion dollars
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: compared to in videos for I think it's now like
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: four five four seven when this was written utilities. That's
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: been a major benefit beneficiary of the AI trade. A
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: bunch of utilities being assumed that they are going to
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: have to build out this electricity grid. Who's going to
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: be able to construct nuclear power plants and small nuclear.
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: Reactors on a fast scale.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: Those thirty one companies operating in the utility space have
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: a combined market capitalization of one point five trillion. So
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: when we talk about just the size and scale of this,
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: I do think Mark, you and I looked at this
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: and we said, okay, this is obvious.
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: This was an exercise in data visualization by data scientists
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: or analysts, which is a relatively new profession using This
• 15:30
  Speaker 5: is not Python or are I don't know what they used.
• 15:33
  Speaker 5: Maybe it's something proprietary, maybe it's Tableau, I don't know,
• 15:36
  Speaker 5: but people, you know, like me who work with data.
• 15:38
  Speaker 5: We like full You know you're the victim of my yes,
• 15:42
  Speaker 5: my daily assault of charts. Sometimes we make them just
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: to make sure we remember how to make them, to
• 15:49
  Speaker 5: be honest, sometimes it's because we think they look cool,
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: but there's very little analysis behind them.
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there isn't much in the way of analysis behind
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: any of this. I think so.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: But what you may overlook, Mark, because your job isn't
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: to speak to the general public, is that people aren't
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: really aware.
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: On this radio video we're speaking of the general but
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: you don't.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: You can't hear back from them. I guess every once
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: in a while we get to the text line six.
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: West, we most certainly do hear from them.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: In any case, I do think this piece is overlooked.
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: I don't think people generally understand understand the scale of
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: the concentration that we are now talking about. The other
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: piece that again we've brought this up before. It's not
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: news if you listen to this program, but six firms,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: the five biggest companies out there sorry that we are
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: talking about, being Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Vidia, and Alphabet
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: Those five combined companies, not all of whom are tech companies,
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: by the way. Alphabet is in the communications services sector
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: is that where we do, and Amazon is in the
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: consumer discretionary sector. But reality, I kind of think of
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: them as tech AI companies. Those five make up a
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: third of the S and P five hundred. People don't
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: quite understand that and understand, and I think it is
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: important to comprehend that that is a different kind of
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: risk than we have ever seen in the S and
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: P five hundred. Am I overstating that? I mean at
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: least in modern investing times.
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: Yeah, it's hard to get that data. You have to
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: go to an investment manager to get it. So I
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: would ask one of the firms we work with in
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: our day jobs to send me the data on sectors
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: as a percentage of the market year over year, and
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: if you charted that, you would see the tech sector
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: growing and everything else with the exception of a couple
• 17:34
  Speaker 5: that you mentioned shrinking. Should that be a concern? I
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: don't have the answer to that, obviously, Mike.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: You'd be.
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: You should think very carefully before you bet against a
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: market cap weighted index. The S and P five hundred,
• 17:49
  Speaker 5: for example, which we're using, is our proxy for large
• 17:51
  Speaker 5: cap stocks, but there are others like the Russell one
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: thousand and others. It's very hard to beat if you're
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: an active manager. So you could say, no, no, I don't
• 17:59
  Speaker 5: want so much, I don't want this much tech. I
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: want to go equal weighted, or I want to go
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: with an active manager who evaluates stocks on a bottom
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: up basis and etc. That's risky. Not to say it
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: won't pan out, it's risky.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: What I can say because they charted this to the
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: New York Times, they pulled the data from nineteen eighty
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: and beyond, and this doesn't tell me concentration of sectors,
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: but it does tell me the top ten companies in
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: terms of the concentration of the T SMP.
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: They make up thirty.
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: Nine percent of the S and P five hundred right now.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: Those top ten, which include companies like Eli, Lilly, Berkshire,
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: Hathway in addition to the giant behemoth tech companies. There
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: was not a single instance prior to twenty twenty when
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: those top ten made up more than thirty percent. So again,
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: if you're looking for some understanding of this market right now,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: I do think that this is an important understanding to have,
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: which is, we are more concentrated than anytime we've been
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: in forty five years. We are more reliant on those
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: giant companies continue to grow, to continue to lift that index, because, yeah,
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: when you talk about the energy sector, as exciting as
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: it might be to an individual investor, the entire cumulative
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: energy sector doesn't even.
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: Can we talk about how this might get resolved on
• 19:14
  Speaker 5: the other side.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: We should, Let's say a quick break, We've got Wall
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: Street Watch coming up. We're also gonna be joined by
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: Todd Lutsky from the law firm of Cushing and Dole
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: and all that here next on the Financial Exchange.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter at
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: TFE show. Breaking business news is always first right here
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Time now for Wall
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: Street Watch, a complete look at what's moving markets so
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: far today right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: Selloffs continuing on Wall Street at lease in terms of
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: the tech sector as investors react to a hotter than
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: expected PPI Index, where producer prices climb two point nine
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: percent year over year, higher than estimates of two point
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: six percent. Right now, the Dow is down one point
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: to excuse me, one point three percent, or six hundred
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: and thirty two points lower SMB five hundred, down three
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: quarters of a percent, Nasdaq selling off about nine cents
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: one percent, Russell two thousand down nearly two percent, ten
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: Your Treasure reeled down four basis points at three point
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: nine seven five percent, and crude oil up nearly three
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: percent higher, trading right around sixty seven dollars a barrel
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: after shedding more than five percent yesterday despite its solid
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: fourth quarter results, and video shares are down over one
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: percent today, breaking a news from open Ai after the
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: chat gpt maker announced SAD is finalize a record breaking
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: one hundred and ten billion dollar funding round at a
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: seven hundred and thirty billion dollar valuation, Amazon investing fifty
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: billion dollars, while SoftBank and Nvidia are each investing thirty
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: billion dollars. Meanwhile, Block announced that it is laying off
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: more than forty percent of its workforce, or four thousand employees,
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: and I bet that AI tools can fill the gap.
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: Shares in the parent company, two square and cash app
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: are surging nearly eighteen percent. Elsewhere, Paramount was crowned winner
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: for Warner Brothers Movie and Television Studios and HBO Max
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: streaming service after Netflix pulled out of their initial deal.
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: Warnerstock is down two percent, while both Paramount and Netflix
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: shares jumping by eight percent and two It up by
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: three percent after the Turbo tax owners quarterly profit guidance
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: missed expectations, and Dell shares rallying eighteen percent after the
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: tech company posted a thirty nine percent leap in quarterly sales,
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: boosted by its AI server business. I'm Tucker Silva and
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: that is Wallstreet.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: Watch and joining us now is Todd Lutsky from the
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: law firm of Krishiingan Doland. Welcome jet back, Thanks for
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: joining us.
• 22:02
  Speaker 6: Oh thanks, always a pleasure.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: I want to talk about some of the basics here
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: in a state planning and maybe we can actually.
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: Start right there.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, what are the quote more basic estate planning
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: documents and how might you know that they're not enough
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: for your family?
• 22:18
  Speaker 6: Yeah, great question, because so many people forget about them,
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: We don't talk about them as often. But think about
• 22:23
  Speaker 6: a will, think about a healthcare proxy for medical decision making,
• 22:28
  Speaker 6: think about a living will. I don't want to be
• 22:31
  Speaker 6: on a machine kind of document, and of course a
• 22:33
  Speaker 6: really powerful one. The power of attorney. So the power
• 22:37
  Speaker 6: of attorneys mainly just helping you appoint somebody else to
• 22:40
  Speaker 6: make financial decisions for you, whereas the healthcare is to
• 22:44
  Speaker 6: make medical decisions for you if you cannot all kinds,
• 22:47
  Speaker 6: and of course the will is mainly to basically direct
• 22:51
  Speaker 6: where you're askedts go if you haven't done anything else,
• 22:54
  Speaker 6: at least it'll direct where they go. And if you
• 22:56
  Speaker 6: have a trust in place, that'll pour it over into
• 22:58
  Speaker 6: a trust. So those are those are your basic documents.
• 23:02
  Speaker 6: But you also ask are they not enough? Yeah? Generally
• 23:05
  Speaker 6: if the goal for you is not that you don't
• 23:09
  Speaker 6: need them, by the way, you always need them. But
• 23:10
  Speaker 6: if the goal for you is to just avoid probate
• 23:13
  Speaker 6: and reduce taxes and or protect assets from the nursing home,
• 23:18
  Speaker 6: the will, having just a will won't do any of
• 23:21
  Speaker 6: those things.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: So look, you've got a lot of listeners here in
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: New England. Are there certain asset thresholds somebody needs to
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: be worried about? And then before you go to again
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: a very basic concept, but what does the five year
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: lookback period relate to? Because everybody always knows about the
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: five year look back, but they have no idea what
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: it's actually involved in.
• 23:42
  Speaker 6: Yeah, So two questions. The threshold, you know what are
• 23:46
  Speaker 6: the thresholds in mass So again, if one of the options,
• 23:49
  Speaker 6: one of the objectives you have is to avoid Massachusetts
• 23:53
  Speaker 6: a state tathlists, forget about federal for a minute. The
• 23:56
  Speaker 6: threshold in mass is if you're over two million, there's
• 23:59
  Speaker 6: tax too, But if you're married and you can do
• 24:01
  Speaker 6: a simple revocable trust or even an irrevocable trust, you
• 24:05
  Speaker 6: can double that exemption from two million to four million.
• 24:08
  Speaker 6: So those are your thresholds. So I think if you know,
• 24:11
  Speaker 6: the basic documents are not enough, certainly if you're over
• 24:14
  Speaker 6: two million. But then again you asked about the five
• 24:17
  Speaker 6: year look back, and that has nothing to do with
• 24:19
  Speaker 6: taxes or probate. It has to do with protecting from
• 24:22
  Speaker 6: a nursing home. So you could be over you could
• 24:25
  Speaker 6: even be under the two million dollar exemption, but still
• 24:28
  Speaker 6: want to protect your assets from the nursing home. Well,
• 24:30
  Speaker 6: now you need to deal with the five year look back,
• 24:32
  Speaker 6: which is set up an irrevocable trust to put the
• 24:35
  Speaker 6: assets in get the five year clock running. But that
• 24:38
  Speaker 6: trust can also even though you don't need it to
• 24:40
  Speaker 6: avoid a state taxes, you still need a trust to
• 24:43
  Speaker 6: do the nursing home piece and avoid probate. Piece, so
• 24:46
  Speaker 6: folks lots to think about when it comes to it.
• 24:48
  Speaker 6: And basically this guide we're giving away, which is now
• 24:52
  Speaker 6: at the end of the month, folks, you got to
• 24:53
  Speaker 6: get it if you want it back to the basics.
• 24:55
  Speaker 6: It talks about all these basic documents and in fact
• 24:59
  Speaker 6: the near vocable trust. It's basically my engagement letter on
• 25:03
  Speaker 6: a four million dollar estate explaining how to do an
• 25:07
  Speaker 6: estate plan. So it's great if it's going to help
• 25:10
  Speaker 6: you kick off your estate plan. It gives you things
• 25:13
  Speaker 6: to talk about before you go to the lawyer and
• 25:16
  Speaker 6: get ready for your estate plan. And you can even
• 25:19
  Speaker 6: put your own numbers right into this this plan and
• 25:22
  Speaker 6: see if it actually works for you. So help get
• 25:25
  Speaker 6: your estate plan off the ground. Call and get the
• 25:27
  Speaker 6: guide back to the basics. Eight sixty six eight four
• 25:31
  Speaker 6: eight five six nine nine or Legal Exchange Show dot
• 25:35
  Speaker 6: com again eight sixty six eight four eight five six
• 25:38
  Speaker 6: nine nine or Legal Exchange Show dot com, or go
• 25:42
  Speaker 6: to our Instagram page Cushing Dolan PC for more information.
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: Todd, thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate you
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: have a great weekend and cheers to spring someday.
• 25:53
  Speaker 6: Thank you you as well.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: Take care the proceeding was paid for and the views
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: expressed are solely those of Cushing and Dolan. Cushing and
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Dolan and or Armstrong Advisory may contact you offering legal
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: or investment services. Kushing and Armstrong did not endorse each
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: other and are not affiliated.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: Jack Dorsey's block to lay off for Oh no, sorry, Mark,
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: We're going to get back to Jack Dorsey and him
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: laying off thousands of workers. But I wanted to go
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: back to the subject we were talking about, which is
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: concentration in the markets and how that could resolve itself
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: or there are multiple ways.
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: Ahead.
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: I'm not sure it's a problem. I know that sounds odd,
• 26:30
  Speaker 5: but it's not clear to me that just because investors
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: have decided to bid up the price of certain companies
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: a lot relative to others, and that's how they get
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: bigger as a percentage of the whole. We've all seen
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: there right about future profits go.
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: I would also say that compared, I haven't done a
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: real comparison, but we have had a lot of failed
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: anti trust cases. There has not been a lot of
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: breakup of major companies in spite of them being sued
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: by the government. For instance, what was it? Google declared
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: a monopoly and no break up there. So there's a
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: few reasons you could use to maybe justify part of
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: our companies.
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, undoubtedly the political environment is part of it.
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: But is it a bad thing? Well, it's unprecedented. You
• 27:09
  Speaker 5: made that point in the last segment where it historically
• 27:13
  Speaker 5: never seen before levels of concentration in terms of top
• 27:16
  Speaker 5: ten company market capitalization relative to the rest. So suppose
• 27:20
  Speaker 5: you think that's bad, and suppose you think it won't
• 27:24
  Speaker 5: be sustained. That could resolve itself in a couple of ways.
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: The top ten could fall in value by a lot,
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: Investors could change their conclusion and that repricing will shrink them,
• 27:36
  Speaker 5: or their growth rate could slow and the rest of
• 27:39
  Speaker 5: the market could catch up. I don't know. That's probably
• 27:42
  Speaker 5: the optimistic, orderly way that this gets resolved. If you
• 27:46
  Speaker 5: think it's going to get resolved, I'm not presuming that
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: it should or will.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: And frankly, we've seen some of that this year. It
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: appears to be happening fairly miraculous that markets. I mean,
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: while markets are pretty flats and October, they haven't gone
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: through a major downturn or correction. But individual large components
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: such as some of those giant names that I talked
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: about are down double digit and.
• 28:10
  Speaker 5: Thus the pressures on pees priced to earnings, which we
• 28:13
  Speaker 5: sometimes use is shorthand for how expensive the market is.
• 28:17
  Speaker 5: Pressure on pees has eased. They've come down a little
• 28:20
  Speaker 5: bit by some measures. If we could coin a phrase
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: on this show, we could call it the miraculous compression.
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: That's a play on the miraculous disinflation idea that we've
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: only seen play out a couple times in history, arguably
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: most recently from twenty twenty three to twenty twenty five.
• 28:38
  Speaker 5: But it would be a miraculous compression because normally when
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: pees shifting, I'm shifting the subject here a little bit,
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: but it's closely related. When they get extreme, they come down,
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: and they come down because the P falls, it's not
• 28:51
  Speaker 5: because the E goes up.
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: That's been the trend. We've got to take a quick break.
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: When we come back, we're going to be getting to
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: the latest in the AI disruption narrative with Jack Dorsey's
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: block and layoffs. There quick break, we'll be right back
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: on the Financial Exchange.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: When business news breaks, we are talking about it on X.
• 29:09
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• 29:13
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• 29:18
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• 29:21
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• 29:24
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• 30:05
  Speaker 3: Mark.
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: When we talk about Aii, there is one common theme
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: that people seem to be concerned about beyond valuations and
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: everything else, which is jobs and job loss and what
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: if the technology replaces all of us humans Because it's
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: pretty much designed to replicate us.
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: Can we stop right there? Sure, where's the demand going
• 30:23
  Speaker 5: to come from? If it replaces all of us humans,
• 30:25
  Speaker 5: if we're all unemployed. Nobody thinks that explained it through.
• 30:30
  Speaker 5: You'll always have a relative advantage at something, even if
• 30:33
  Speaker 5: we can't do anything absolutely better than a computer. And
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: the same applies to trade. By the way, the same
• 30:38
  Speaker 5: arguments that you would apply to technology apply to trade.
• 30:40
  Speaker 5: And I'm gonna say this is not obvious. It is
• 30:43
  Speaker 5: obvious to see somebody lose their job and then get
• 30:45
  Speaker 5: scared and think that could happen to me. Yes, it's
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: not obvious to think through, well, what happens, what's happening
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: behind the scenes. People will fewer people will go into
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: that industry because wages will go down. They'll go elsewhere.
• 30:57
  Speaker 5: They'll go where humans still have a relative work comparative
• 31:00
  Speaker 5: advantage and probably always will over computers.
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: I'm using, as Paul said, is going to go cut trees.
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: Cut hair, cut trees, deliver financial advice where you're ninety
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: five percent psychiatrist, correct me if I'm wrong. You have
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: to tell me, ay, stay in the market or don't.
• 31:15
  Speaker 5: You're managing expectations and psych in psychology, not always cranking
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: out the type of stuff that isism of what I
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: do will probably be is almost certainly going to be replaced.
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: Hopefully they still need someone with judgment to make sure
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: the output is right. But anyway, the point is, Mike,
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: wages will go down in some industries, and that will
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: the wages are prices. They give us a signal, they'll
• 31:37
  Speaker 5: tell people to go elsewhere. There are lots of examples
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: of this historically.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: And in any case, we found a company that is
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: finally benefiting from their announcements about AI this year, which
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: is Block. Jack Dorsey's company, founder of Twitter, now runs
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: Block and just suddenly announced this morning or yesterday perhaps
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: that the company plans to lay off forty percent of
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: their workforce, more than four thousand employees, due to artificial
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: intelligence tools.
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: And I gotta tell you, I.
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: Don't buy it. You don't buy what I think they
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: are going to lay people off. Don't oh that.
• 32:09
  Speaker 5: That's the rationale.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: I don't buy pretext that your business. I see, yeah,
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: yesterday needed four thousand employees and today doesn't.
• 32:17
  Speaker 5: No, no, no, it's a pretext for it's.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: A marketing campaign. It's a pretext to fire a bunch
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: of people because you don't need them anymore. Maybe part
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: of that is because of artificial intelligence, But it seems like, again.
• 32:28
  Speaker 5: You're right, that doesn't happen overnight. Would you just roll
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: out the software and discovered four out of ten we're obsolete? No,
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: not not plausible.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: So maybe they've been developing this for five months. Maybe
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: this is just the final announcement, and maybe it was
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: all designed to make a big headline splash. But be clear, like,
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: that's that's what it is here as an attempt to
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: make a big headline splash. He recognizes that. And by
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: the way, stock is up today sixteen point eight percent,
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: so it's working. It is functioning the way I think
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: he wants it to, which is, hey, let's make a
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: big splash, say that we can reduce headcount costs by
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: four hundred fifty to five hundred million dollars by firing
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: all these people that do things that we don't think
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: is necessary anymore.
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: But is that truly just because of AI?
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: My guess would be no, it's probably also because you
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: don't really have a growing business.
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: Don't extrapolate from that. Don't think that this is what
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: every company is going to do. Maybe Dorsey doesn't know
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: how to run his business. Maybe he doesn't care about
• 33:21
  Speaker 5: his people. Maybe it's hemorrhaging and he needed to cut costs,
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: and this is the pretext he was waiting for. I
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: don't know. I'm just saying you cannot generalize from that
• 33:30
  Speaker 5: to say, O, my god, Ai is coming for all
• 33:33
  Speaker 5: of our jobs. Even if that were true, human beings
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: will always have a relative or comparative advantage, just like
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: America will always have a comparative advantage with its trading partners.
• 33:42
  Speaker 5: Even if Japan can produce airplanes and radios and whatever
• 33:47
  Speaker 5: your favorite example is more efficiently. In an absolute sense,
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: we always have a relative advantage, and that's where we'll specialize.
• 33:53
  Speaker 5: The same is true when it comes to technology, Mike.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: It brings back to mind the the highlights from the
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: piece by Sutrini Research.
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: G Yeah, I was gonna say garbage. That's harsh, but
• 34:04
  Speaker 5: it was garbage.
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: Well, it just was science fiction, to be clear.
• 34:08
  Speaker 5: And it was all it was.
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: It was a research step.
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: It was a research report written from the perspective of
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: somebody in twenty twenty eight, So it was science fiction
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: more than anything else.
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: Like when whenever anybody tells you the value of all
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: labor is going to go to zero. You can stop
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: right there and say this person's economically illiterate. That doesn't happen.
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: Labor always has. People always have some comparative advantage first
• 34:28
  Speaker 5: of all. Secondly, ask well, where's the demand going to
• 34:30
  Speaker 5: come from if we're all unemployed hunting squirrels working for
• 34:34
  Speaker 5: an android? Jack Dorsey investment is just these these tech guys,
• 34:39
  Speaker 5: with all due respect, should stick to coding their Their
• 34:42
  Speaker 5: grandiose pronouncements about the future are as valuable as minor
• 34:47
  Speaker 5: yours said, they're worthless.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: You put it one way, I guess the other way
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: that I put it is I know that artificial intelligence
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: is a different tool. It's different than any technology that's
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: existed before, just like every new invention has and definition
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: new invention before it. But do we really believe that
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: this new invention in twenty twenty six that we are
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: all seeing is going to be so much different from
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: the invention of the internet, from the invention of the
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: printing press. Yes, I do believe it'll be different of electricity.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: Will it be different in terms of its impact on society, labor,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: and the world economy. That's where I break down.
• 35:26
  Speaker 5: I believe the Internet changed the world, but it didn't
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: change the trend in per capita growth. It didn't change
• 35:31
  Speaker 5: the trend in GDP. Look at the chart. AI might
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: change that trend. We might grow a little faster due
• 35:37
  Speaker 5: to productivity enhancements. But the idea that it's going to
• 35:40
  Speaker 5: it's going to have us all subservient to it, waiting
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: to be you know, given our daily ration of soilent
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: green or whatever. I think that's what it was in
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: the movie, is preposterous. Their investment is just future consumption.
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: Why would anybody make investment if there will be no
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: future consumers. These hysterical science fiction s type pieces about
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: AI and the pronouncements from our current cohort of tech gods,
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: they don't acknowledge basic economics.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: I am very comfortable saying one thing about labor. I
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: do believe, like every other technology that's come about, that
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: AI will disrupt entire industries of workers. There will be
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: certain categories of workers who, if they have a job,
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: there's far fewer of them than there were in decades past.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: There will be just like there are now fewer travel
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: agents than there were.
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: Find a turpists today there were a million in nineteen seventies.
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: So there are people with specific skill sets. I have
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: a client whose son just got laid off doing website design,
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: and I don't know if that person, who is unfortunately
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: in their fifties, will ever have a job in that space.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: Again genuinely, that is, as you know, something that I'm
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: genuinely concerned about for that individual, that does not then
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: extrapolate to and therefore none of us will have jobs ever.
• 36:55
  Speaker 5: Again, that's what all these pieces do. They immediately generalize.
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: So I don't do that because around all of your
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: time worrying about that then, and if.
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: You're listening to this show, you're probably my age, early
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: fifties or older.
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: You've seen no Our key demo is sixteen to Night.
• 37:14
  Speaker 5: You remember pre Internet, and you know how life changing
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: it was. Life's better in many ways because of it.
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: But interestingly, it didn't change the trend in growth. Something
• 37:22
  Speaker 5: else would have come along. I don't We'd probably be
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: just as rich today if the Internet had never come along.
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: As crazy as that sounds.
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: New England is living up to its reputation because forty
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: eight ounce buckets of Duncan iced coffee have already sold
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: out at many New England stores. I thought that this
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: was one of those AI jokes on Facebook that I saw,
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: but no, it is in fact real. You can go
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: to Duncan in some locations and get a forty eight
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: ounce bucket of coffee that weighs three.
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: Pounds for how much ice is in that though?
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: You know, right, yeah, yeah, it's only really like thirty
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: ounces of coffee.
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: So what are we even talking about here? Yeah, come on.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, ridiculous. Congratulations New Englanders. You earned it after a
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: giant snowstorm. Go get your forty eight ounce bucket of Duncan.
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: How does any fit in the cup holder?
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: It does not in the cup holder holding your lap.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: It's going to be a real proud ride for us.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: We've got to tech take a quick break. But a
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: lot more to come here on the Financial Exchange, including
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: Michael sand totally joining us a little bit after this
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: here on the Financial Exchange