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Top 10 NFL Fantasy Moves · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
0:12
Speaker 1: podcast Network. I am Chad, moment of the Action Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: Let's get to it, folks. We're going to welcome in
0:19
Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, Micah Badra, my BFF, professional
0:22
Speaker 1: matter sign man Hunter.
0:23
Speaker 2: No.
0:24
Speaker 3: So I'm in Chad. Another week closer to football, brother.
0:27
Speaker 1: We're getting there. What I don't like, here's what I
0:30
Speaker 1: don't like. I don't like when people are like, only
0:35
Speaker 1: four more Sundays to kick off, Because the truth is,
0:38
Speaker 1: I also like my Sundays as they are right now.
0:41
Speaker 1: Like the other day, it was Sunday I was reading,
0:46
Speaker 1: you know, at like eleven o'clock and it was stress free,
0:50
Speaker 1: and I thought to myself, very soon, my Sundays are
0:54
Speaker 1: not going to be stress free and they're going to
0:56
Speaker 1: be super busy. So as much as I'm looking forward
0:59
Speaker 1: to the season and what we're doing today, I don't
1:02
Speaker 1: want people like counting me down.
1:05
Speaker 3: You know what I mean that tweets not for you?
1:07
Speaker 4: Then I need to countdown because I get lost in
1:09
Speaker 4: the summer where I'm just got ahead of my own ass,
1:11
Speaker 4: and all of a sudden I see that I'm like,
1:12
Speaker 4: oh my god, only seven more weeks of faking like
1:15
Speaker 4: I'm a normal person so I can get back to
1:16
Speaker 4: the real life life with football.
1:19
Speaker 1: I am. I am six weeks from my younger son
1:24
Speaker 1: leaving the house for college. I don't need reminders. The
1:29
Speaker 1: time is passing us by.
1:31
Speaker 3: You can't wait, empty nester. It's the best.
1:34
Speaker 4: All around, his underwear.
1:36
Speaker 3: Can't wait.
1:37
Speaker 1: I already walk around in my underwear. Today we are
1:40
Speaker 1: doing a annual summer episode diving into the top ten
1:43
Speaker 1: fantasy moves of the NFL offseason, and we're going to
1:45
Speaker 1: bring in the big guns. How do I define the
1:50
Speaker 1: big guns, you may ask, Well, last week there was
1:55
Speaker 1: a very special release from the independent website We've saarted
1:58
Speaker 1: here many many times Fantasy Pros. Fantasy Pros objectively ranks
2:03
Speaker 1: the projections of the top fantasy football experts in the world.
2:07
Speaker 1: We cite Fantasy Pros rankings all the time. Gives us
2:12
Speaker 1: a composite top ten list of the most accurate fantasy
2:16
Speaker 1: football projections over the past three NFL seasons. That's what
2:20
Speaker 1: they just released on today's show. We are lucky enough
2:24
Speaker 1: to have twenty percent of that list on the show.
2:29
Speaker 3: That's right.
2:30
Speaker 1: Two people from that top ten list, you could then
2:34
Speaker 1: hear them every week talking all things fantasy on Action
2:38
Speaker 1: Networks Fantasy Flex podcast are beloved colleagues two of the
2:43
Speaker 1: best in the freaking business. Sean Kerner called the goat
2:49
Speaker 1: of fantasy projections by fantasy pros last year not to
2:53
Speaker 1: be done, out done, hot on his heels for goatness,
2:59
Speaker 1: Chris Ravel, boys, it is so good to see you
3:11
Speaker 1: you guys.
3:15
Speaker 3: Do you know you lot me speechless?
3:16
Speaker 2: Although Chad, I do agree with you with these countdowns
3:20
Speaker 2: for the season starting, but I'm I'm also excited for
3:22
Speaker 2: the start of preseason. I think you're missing out on,
3:26
Speaker 2: you know, some preseason action too.
3:28
Speaker 1: That's true, there is some preseason action. We're going to
3:30
Speaker 1: get to that. God, I mean, we've probably got preseason
3:32
Speaker 1: action in three weeks. Listen. I'm glad you guys decided
3:37
Speaker 1: to speak. That's fantastic. Raybond, Hello, I don't know that
3:41
Speaker 1: you've had a comment so far, and I know I
3:42
Speaker 1: didn't ask a question, but we're just conversating here, mister Chad.
3:48
Speaker 5: Glad to be back. A little disappointed that the NBA
3:53
Speaker 5: Finals couldn't go longer, because I think I do even
3:55
Speaker 5: better on that than I did in fantasy projections, but
3:58
Speaker 5: excited to get an another season going and hopefully I
4:02
Speaker 5: can match Sean once again.
4:04
Speaker 1: Let's dig in, boys, Chris and Shan, you've both compiled
4:06
Speaker 1: the top ten list of your own outlining the ten
4:09
Speaker 1: biggest moves of the NFL offseason. Chris Europe, first, I'm
4:15
Speaker 1: going to ask you give me your biggest move from
4:19
Speaker 1: the offseason.
4:21
Speaker 5: So I think the biggest move is Liam Cohne going
4:25
Speaker 5: from Tampa Bay to Jacksonville to become the head coach.
4:29
Speaker 5: He was calling plays in Tampa last year, and I
4:31
Speaker 5: just think this has the potential to be a massive
4:37
Speaker 5: upswing for the Jags offense, and it's gonna it could
4:40
Speaker 5: create massive value for pretty much every single Jags fantasy
4:44
Speaker 5: player versus their ADP. So last season was Cone's only
4:49
Speaker 5: season coordinating the Bucks. Running that offense. He took him
4:53
Speaker 5: from twenty point five points per game in twenty twenty
4:56
Speaker 5: three to twenty nine point five season. That's a nine
5:01
Speaker 5: point increase. That's pretty much unheard of. And we already
5:04
Speaker 5: thought they were, you know, doing well just with Canalis
5:07
Speaker 5: and they might even take a step back without him.
5:09
Speaker 5: So Liam Cone did a great job there. I think
5:13
Speaker 5: Trevor Lawrence could beat his ADPs going around the quarterback twenty.
5:18
Speaker 5: I think he should be more so a low end
5:22
Speaker 5: QB one, high m QB two. I have um QB
5:23
Speaker 5: twelve rookie baseel tooting at running back. I think he
5:28
Speaker 5: could smash his ADPs going as the running back forty four.
5:30
Speaker 5: I have them about five spots higher right now, the
5:32
Speaker 5: ceilings even higher. Brian Thomas Junior has upside to be
5:35
Speaker 5: the number one wide receiver in the entire NFL this year.
5:38
Speaker 5: So you know, I know last year, Simon, we're just
5:41
Speaker 5: talking off air how Sean was super high on him
5:43
Speaker 5: and he ended up crushing. I don't think it's it's
5:46
Speaker 5: done now like this this offense, with the potential for
5:51
Speaker 5: Trevor Lawrence to improve and take a step forward, I
5:54
Speaker 5: think Thomas has an unlimited ceiling. Even with Travis Hunter there,
6:00
Speaker 5: best ball, Diami Brown, tight end, Brenton Strange, both of
6:04
Speaker 5: those guys I think are going to provide some value
6:07
Speaker 5: as well. But really just loved this cone move. And
6:10
Speaker 5: if you look at so we look at like, okay,
6:13
Speaker 5: well what's he gonna do?
6:14
Speaker 1: Well?
6:14
Speaker 5: I think he helps Trevor Lawrence in four distinct ways
6:19
Speaker 5: quick passing game. Lawrence was a bottom five in yards
6:24
Speaker 5: per attempt and throws under two and a half seconds,
6:27
Speaker 5: So those are kind of, you know, the design throws
6:30
Speaker 5: and the things that the coordinator could really kind of
6:33
Speaker 5: scheme up and help the quarterback, you know, kind of
6:36
Speaker 5: determine where he should go with the ball and get
6:38
Speaker 5: it out. He wasn't getting any help last year, just
6:42
Speaker 5: five point one yards in attempt. Baker Mayfield was up
6:44
Speaker 5: at six point eight. He was top two in yardage
6:47
Speaker 5: and touchdowns on throws under two and a half route combinations,
6:51
Speaker 5: scheming guys open in space. Trevor Lawrence four point eight
6:55
Speaker 5: yards after catch per completion did his receivers average. Field
7:00
Speaker 5: was up at six point zero, and he had He
7:01
Speaker 5: took a significant jump from the year before when Cone
7:05
Speaker 5: wasn't there. In the red zone, Trevor Lawrence has really
7:07
Speaker 5: struggled his entire career. That's one of the reasons why
7:10
Speaker 5: he really hasn't broken out twenty percent red zone touchdown
7:15
Speaker 5: conversion rate. Mayfield went from twenty three percent in twenty
7:19
Speaker 5: twenty three to thirty seven percent last year. With Cone
7:23
Speaker 5: and some of the red zone routes and things that
7:26
Speaker 5: the play calling down there was really really good, I
7:28
Speaker 5: thought for the Bucks last year. And then the run game.
7:32
Speaker 5: Cone got guys to buy in. He took a Bucks
7:35
Speaker 5: run game that you will remember two years twenty two
7:38
Speaker 5: and twenty three they were bottom of the league and
7:40
Speaker 5: rushing couldn't do anything. He took an offensive line that
7:44
Speaker 5: was thirty first in yards before contact to six last year.
7:48
Speaker 5: And it wasn't just Bucky irving the line. Those are
7:52
Speaker 5: the yards before contact You're gonna see more reflected in
7:55
Speaker 5: that number, but it was both of the same tackles,
8:00
Speaker 5: in the same interior lineman, so three of the same
8:02
Speaker 5: five linemen starting, and a rookie center. So a lot
8:05
Speaker 5: of it was just con getting guys to buy in
8:07
Speaker 5: and switching up the run skins and things, which is
8:09
Speaker 5: why I also like base Sall tooting the rookie running back.
8:13
Speaker 5: I think Etn and Bigsby are kind of shaky right now,
8:17
Speaker 5: like you gotta kind of it's touch and go. I
8:20
Speaker 5: think one of those guys will probably be a healthy
8:22
Speaker 5: and active or may end up off the roster by
8:24
Speaker 5: the time that the season starts. But the reason I
8:27
Speaker 5: like Tooton is because when you look at Bucky Irving
8:30
Speaker 5: last year. He was a Day three pick first week
8:33
Speaker 5: of the season, eleven touches first three weeks, ten touches
8:37
Speaker 5: per game. So he had a roll right off the
8:39
Speaker 5: bat in Cone's offense. So did rookie Jalen McMillan eighty
8:43
Speaker 5: percent snap count right off the bat. So I don't
8:45
Speaker 5: think they drafted Tooton for no reason. This guy's got
8:47
Speaker 5: blazing speed. No one's going to be Bucky Irving, but
8:51
Speaker 5: Tooting's upside, like his ceiling is Bucky Irving. He's going
8:54
Speaker 5: as the RB forty four. So I just really love
8:58
Speaker 5: what Con could bring to this entire Jags offerings from
9:02
Speaker 5: Lawrence to Thomas on down.
9:04
Speaker 1: Simon, I know you want to you wanna ask Sean
9:07
Speaker 1: about his top of the board impact move, but let
9:10
Speaker 1: me ask Chris. Quick follow up for Chris, which is
9:14
Speaker 1: give me your You know, Simon and I have talked
9:17
Speaker 1: about our top ten quarterback lists, and we both like
9:22
Speaker 1: Baker as a top ten quarterback. We both had him
9:26
Speaker 1: at number ten. You're just talking about how important Liam
9:29
Speaker 1: Cohane was to Baker's success. How much of an impact
9:33
Speaker 1: do you think Cone leaving has on Baker's success? This year.
9:37
Speaker 5: I think it's gonna be a little bit of a downgrade.
9:40
Speaker 5: I mean, Baker just put up such an amazing and
9:42
Speaker 5: not just Baker, that Bucks offense in general, I mean
9:45
Speaker 5: put up such an amazing season. Chad, you and I
9:47
Speaker 5: have talked about this, that there's gonna be some natural
9:50
Speaker 5: regression in that I'm factoring in. I still think Baker
9:53
Speaker 5: is a top ten fantasy quarterback, but he was a
9:55
Speaker 5: two by three last year. I think he's gonna be
9:58
Speaker 5: more towards the low end that QB one, you know,
10:01
Speaker 5: the middle to the low end, somewhere in that six
10:03
Speaker 5: to twelve range. I think I have them number six,
10:06
Speaker 5: so I expect a little bit of regression. You know,
10:09
Speaker 5: still has a lot of weapons and a decent line.
10:12
Speaker 5: But Cohn's impact cannot be understated either. So I think
10:18
Speaker 5: really you're looking at Lawrence kind of closing that gap
10:21
Speaker 5: to Mayfield, because remember, before con got there, Bayfield was
10:24
Speaker 5: kind of Lawrence and Mayfield were kind of the same guy.
10:27
Speaker 5: It was like a guy who's drafted number one overall,
10:29
Speaker 5: hadn't really broken out, had some shaky coaching throughout much
10:34
Speaker 5: of his career, some shaky supporting cast, and whatnot. So
10:37
Speaker 5: I think it really helped Lawrence, but I do expect
10:40
Speaker 5: Baker to take a bit of a step back just
10:42
Speaker 5: because it's really hard to put up forty one touchdowns,
10:46
Speaker 5: you know, year over year. Like so, I think you're
10:48
Speaker 5: gonna see some regression there, Sean.
10:50
Speaker 4: We all know the key to winning leagues, it really
10:53
Speaker 4: is to heading those late round veterans, right, but it's
10:55
Speaker 4: also the unknown the rookies. Like that to me, so
10:59
Speaker 4: many years, I did so well as veteran quarterback, veterans
11:02
Speaker 4: a certain positions, but I took high risk plays on rookies.
11:05
Speaker 4: Last year was the freakyer of all years, right, like
11:07
Speaker 4: these rookies last year, we didn't say anything like that
11:10
Speaker 4: right between Bowers neighbors, Bucky Jane Daniels, like, we never
11:15
Speaker 4: had anything like that.
11:16
Speaker 1: I love.
11:17
Speaker 4: Right away we're talking about Jacksonville. Bring it down to me,
11:20
Speaker 4: Travis Hunter. What do we think ahead of the season
11:21
Speaker 4: with him and his value right now, where he's going
11:23
Speaker 4: at in the drafts?
11:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, I mean one of the biggest offseason moves
11:28
Speaker 2: I thought was the Jaguars trading up to get Travis
11:30
Speaker 2: Hunter with the second overall pick because he is a
11:33
Speaker 2: true Unicorn player, a two way player at Colorado, and
11:38
Speaker 2: he's not just like you know, solid okay on both ends.
11:41
Speaker 2: He was dominant as a wide receiver and a cornerback.
11:44
Speaker 2: So I mean, he won the Blittnikoff Award as the
11:48
Speaker 2: nation's top receiver and was named the defensive player of
11:52
Speaker 2: the Year. So he's similar to Shohey Otawi, where he's
11:54
Speaker 2: like truly one of the best on both sides, at
11:57
Speaker 2: least at the collegiate level. We'll see how that translate
12:00
Speaker 2: to the NFL, but it's just gonna be fascinating to see,
12:03
Speaker 2: you know, how they plan on using him on offense
12:05
Speaker 2: and defense.
12:06
Speaker 3: I think that that's one of the things I'm gonna
12:07
Speaker 3: be looking for in training camp.
12:10
Speaker 2: So you know, right now, he's going around wide receiver
12:13
Speaker 2: thirty in early drafts, which might be a little too
12:16
Speaker 2: rich just given just uncertainty on just how much he
12:19
Speaker 2: will play on offense. He might need to sit some
12:21
Speaker 2: plays or drives to stay fresh if he's playing a
12:24
Speaker 2: lot of defense too. So this is one of those
12:26
Speaker 2: situations where I agree with Raybond where Liam Cohen could really,
12:31
Speaker 2: you know, create a breakout season for Trevor Lawrence and
12:33
Speaker 2: then you know, Travis Hunter would probably hit at wide
12:36
Speaker 2: receiver thirty, but there is some uncertainty here. But I
12:39
Speaker 2: will say from a personal point of view, I can't
12:42
Speaker 2: wait to project him the season. We might see the
12:44
Speaker 2: first ever receptions plus tackles prop we've ever seen with
12:49
Speaker 2: Travis Hunter. So I'll be waiting for that and I
12:52
Speaker 2: will bet it even if there's a slight edge one
12:54
Speaker 2: way or the other. But I can't wait to potentially
12:56
Speaker 2: have a receptions and tackles prop. So I'm hoping books
13:01
Speaker 2: are going to, you know, plan offering that market this year.
13:04
Speaker 1: Well look last year, Simon said, off the top, you
13:08
Speaker 1: nailed Brian Thomas right, Like I remember in one of
13:12
Speaker 1: our preview shows you were talking about Brian Thomas Junior
13:15
Speaker 1: and his ability to impact the Jags and that you
13:18
Speaker 1: thought he might be the most important player, most important
13:21
Speaker 1: receiver drafted in the first round. So you crush that one.
13:25
Speaker 1: It's interesting to me both you and Sean and I
13:28
Speaker 1: don't know, are you and Chris and I don't know
13:29
Speaker 1: if you guys coordinated this have moved to the Jaguars
13:34
Speaker 1: as your most significant impact offseason moves and as someone
13:40
Speaker 1: who is thinking about when Simon and I are going
13:44
Speaker 1: to do our playoff team predictions. The Jags are one
13:49
Speaker 1: of those teams that I'm struggling with, and all of
13:53
Speaker 1: a sudden, I'm feeling differently based on what you guys
13:58
Speaker 1: just said.
13:59
Speaker 3: Remember, Chad, this is fantasy.
14:00
Speaker 5: We're talking here though, just keeping and it's the thing
14:04
Speaker 5: about the Jags is look at their ADPs. That's really
14:08
Speaker 5: what it is. Like Simon said, it's about value. They're
14:11
Speaker 5: likely top running back by the end of the year's
14:13
Speaker 5: going outside the top forty Travis Hunter. One of the
14:16
Speaker 5: most talented wide receivers to come out of this you
14:19
Speaker 5: know of this generation is the wide receiver thirty Brian Thomas,
14:23
Speaker 5: who has number one overall Fantasy player like Justin Jefferson,
14:27
Speaker 5: Jamar Chase type upside is going wide receiver eight. Their
14:30
Speaker 5: tight end is going twentieth, their quarterback is going twentieth.
14:34
Speaker 5: I mean, everybody is of value in this offense in
14:38
Speaker 5: terms of their ceiling, and that's what you need in
14:40
Speaker 5: fantasy ceiling. You don't want to hit on every pick,
14:42
Speaker 5: but if you hit some ceiling plays, you're good.
14:46
Speaker 1: Chris, speaking of ceiling, I don't know how much there
14:51
Speaker 1: is for your next big offseason impact quarterback. But explain
14:58
Speaker 1: what is next on your board.
15:00
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'm going to groop these three together. Aaron Rodgers,
15:02
Speaker 5: DK Metcalf, JOHNA. Smith to the Steelers, and I think, listen,
15:10
Speaker 5: Aaron Rodgers. We know I've been ready to write him
15:13
Speaker 5: off for ages now he is what he is. But
15:18
Speaker 5: I do think that this move could be good for
15:21
Speaker 5: DK Metcalf because you're going to an Arthur Smith's offense.
15:26
Speaker 5: Remember Arthur Smith. You know Metcalf's playing the position that exposition.
15:31
Speaker 5: AJ Brown was a top fifteen wide receiver with a
15:34
Speaker 5: pretty shaky quarterback play in a low volume pass offense
15:39
Speaker 5: for Arthur Smith. Drake London that was his role as well.
15:43
Speaker 5: And what we know about Aaron Rodgers is number one,
15:47
Speaker 5: He's gonna throw a lot of passes. I mean, last
15:49
Speaker 5: year on the Jets, who were supposed to be like
15:52
Speaker 5: a good defense or whatever, like, Aaron Rodgers was top
15:55
Speaker 5: two in the league in pass attempts. So I think
15:58
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh could throw a little more than then we might
16:01
Speaker 5: even expect. You know, they have been aggressive at going
16:03
Speaker 5: out and trying to rebuild their their pass offense. But
16:07
Speaker 5: also Aaron Rodgers always has an alpha receiver right Like
16:12
Speaker 5: last season he targeted Garrett Wilson twenty six and a
16:17
Speaker 5: half percent of his routes before Devonte got there, then
16:20
Speaker 5: Devonte twenty seven and a half when once he got there.
16:24
Speaker 5: That's pretty much across the board almost every year, except
16:27
Speaker 5: I think that one year in Green Bay when guys
16:29
Speaker 5: were you know, hurt. Aaron Rodgers is gonna just force
16:33
Speaker 5: feed his number one receivers. So DK Metcalf kind of
16:36
Speaker 5: got you surfed last year by Jackson Smith Najigba Metcalf. Really,
16:41
Speaker 5: you know he's it was Lockett and then it was
16:44
Speaker 5: you know JSN. So Metcalf really hasn't had that opportunity
16:48
Speaker 5: in a while to be you know this guy that's
16:50
Speaker 5: that can get you know, a twenty eight thirty percent
16:53
Speaker 5: target share, but in this offense, he definitely could. So
16:57
Speaker 5: I think this is good for him and Arthur Smith.
17:01
Speaker 5: You know, he loves John new Smith. I know, you
17:02
Speaker 5: know he's been kind of downgraded since since he got there,
17:06
Speaker 5: but uh, this is this is a guy who he
17:08
Speaker 5: was a tight end to the number two tight end
17:11
Speaker 5: behind Kyle Pitts and had a very very good season
17:15
Speaker 5: and a lot of te one week. So I think
17:19
Speaker 5: that this, you know, it looks ugly because the Rogers
17:22
Speaker 5: and you know they have a good defense and this
17:25
Speaker 5: and that. But especially for Metcalf, I think he's got
17:28
Speaker 5: significant upside. I wouldn't shy away from him at all.
17:31
Speaker 5: I think the route combinations that Smith is gonna ask
17:34
Speaker 5: him to run, they kind of got away from that
17:36
Speaker 5: in Seattle in these last couple of years. But I
17:39
Speaker 5: think it really is gonna suit Metcalf particularly well.
17:43
Speaker 1: Ray Ben, excellent use of the word usurped and we
17:48
Speaker 1: appreciate you continuing to make this the most literate sports
17:53
Speaker 1: betting podcast in America.
17:56
Speaker 4: Sean last year I called my shot on sake. I
18:00
Speaker 4: remember I came on on the show and I laughed
18:02
Speaker 4: how I was getting Saquon in the third round in
18:04
Speaker 4: every league. I couldn't believe it, And I said on
18:06
Speaker 4: the show I had him at number three, not third
18:09
Speaker 4: running back, third overall in drafts. And the pushback was
18:13
Speaker 4: the Hurts Tush push, which I totally understood. But my
18:16
Speaker 4: pushback was he's going from the Giants offensive line to
18:19
Speaker 4: the Eagles offensive line. And we saw a playout right,
18:21
Speaker 4: and even with bad luck, I think there's some crazy stats.
18:24
Speaker 4: Saquon had ten tackles at the one and he only
18:27
Speaker 4: scored two of those. The other eight went to Hurtz
18:30
Speaker 4: this year. My guy, I'm so happy he's on your list.
18:33
Speaker 4: Genty to the Raiders. Talk about it to me, baby,
18:36
Speaker 4: I'm all in. Am I crazy for taking him in
18:38
Speaker 4: their first round? Am I drinking the kool age? Should
18:40
Speaker 4: I be calming down here?
18:41
Speaker 3: What am I seeing?
18:42
Speaker 4: The others aren't seen on this kid right now? Because
18:44
Speaker 4: I love the value he's going for in drafts right now.
18:46
Speaker 4: You can either get him late first, early second, and
18:48
Speaker 4: most drafts right now.
18:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I don't think you're crazy for taking him.
18:54
Speaker 2: You know, he's a considered by many a generational running
18:58
Speaker 2: back talent. I mean he went six overall to the Raiders,
19:01
Speaker 2: make him just the sixth running back drafted inside the
19:03
Speaker 2: top ten over the past decade. I mean he led
19:07
Speaker 2: all of college football and rushing by over six hundred yards,
19:10
Speaker 2: which you know it's insane production. Sure, he played at
19:13
Speaker 2: Boise State, so he wasn't you know, facing SEC level
19:17
Speaker 2: defenses or anything. But when you just look at the
19:19
Speaker 2: underlying metrics, his measurables back him up as just being
19:23
Speaker 2: an elite prospect, and I do love this landing spot
19:26
Speaker 2: as well for you know, for him, but also for
19:29
Speaker 2: the Raiders. You know, they ranked dead lass in EPA
19:33
Speaker 2: per rush last year, so that wasn't gonna fly with
19:36
Speaker 2: new head coach Pete Carroll.
19:37
Speaker 3: So he had to get his guy here in the
19:40
Speaker 3: top ten.
19:40
Speaker 2: So he's going to be a workhorse back from day one,
19:43
Speaker 2: you know, both running the ball and you know, being
19:45
Speaker 2: on passing downs like he's he's going to catch balls
19:47
Speaker 2: as well. So that's kind of a rare thing these days.
19:50
Speaker 2: We have a lot of committees. But he's going to
19:52
Speaker 2: be a true workhorse back and push you know, top
19:55
Speaker 2: five value as a rookie. And Chad, I'm thrilled say
20:01
Speaker 2: you won't need to ask me on the side about
20:03
Speaker 2: sincere McCormick props this year. No need for that because
20:06
Speaker 2: this is Gent's backfield. He has zero competition. And again,
20:10
Speaker 2: as long as he stays healthy, he could push top
20:12
Speaker 2: five upside here.
20:14
Speaker 3: What do you think top five pick by September? Not
20:18
Speaker 3: five overall?
20:19
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, If he has one good preseason game, the
20:24
Speaker 4: steam is going to be insane.
20:26
Speaker 2: That's true, because he probably will get some reps in preseason.
20:30
Speaker 2: A lot of these vets we won't see in preseason
20:33
Speaker 2: have those highlight plays, but we could see, you know,
20:35
Speaker 2: an eighty yard touchdown run by him, and that could
20:38
Speaker 2: certainly bump him up.
20:39
Speaker 3: I think it would take a lot to get him
20:40
Speaker 3: inside the top five. There's some good receivers.
20:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know that it would require to fall out
20:45
Speaker 2: of the top five, but certainly, you know, top ten
20:48
Speaker 2: if the hype is there. I could certainly see him,
20:50
Speaker 2: you know, getting inside the top ten before the season starts.
20:54
Speaker 1: Turner, I sincerely thank you for allowing me to not
21:01
Speaker 1: have to ask you about cin Ceramacorna props.
21:03
Speaker 3: This gift for both of us, and.
21:05
Speaker 1: I thank you for continuing to allow us to make
21:08
Speaker 1: this the most literate sports betting podcast in America. Ray Bron,
21:13
Speaker 1: staying on the theme of running backs, give it to me.
21:18
Speaker 5: Yeah, so let's talk with Marion Hampton going to the Chargers. Now,
21:23
Speaker 5: Najie Harris also going to the Chargers from Pittsburgh. I
21:27
Speaker 5: don't think this is good for Nause. You know, he
21:30
Speaker 5: was a guy that we could kind of rely on
21:32
Speaker 5: as run well in running back two in Pittsburgh. You
21:36
Speaker 5: would always get enough volume ahead of Jalen Warren. But
21:39
Speaker 5: now I think he's more firmly in that running back
21:42
Speaker 5: three territory, you know, outside the top thirty. But remember
21:47
Speaker 5: this is a Greg Roman offense. And last season they
21:52
Speaker 5: had like the ghost of JK. Dobbins and the ghost
21:55
Speaker 5: of Gus Edwards, Like those are their two top running backs,
21:58
Speaker 5: and so I don't think they ran the ball as
22:00
Speaker 5: much as they even wanted to. And they were still
22:03
Speaker 5: twelfth in running back carries and seventh in rushing touchdowns
22:06
Speaker 5: for running backs, And in the thirteen games with Dobbins,
22:09
Speaker 5: they averaged ten more carries per game for their backs
22:12
Speaker 5: than they did in the four that he missed. So
22:15
Speaker 5: Greg Roman, every single year that he's been a coordinator,
22:22
Speaker 5: his offenses have finished top eleven in rushing attempts, but
22:28
Speaker 5: really it was top nine and top really top seven
22:32
Speaker 5: all but two years. And his worst finish was last year,
22:35
Speaker 5: the first time he finished outside the top ten. And
22:37
Speaker 5: I think it was because you had, you know, Edwards
22:40
Speaker 5: really couldn't do anything. Kamani Vidal was nothing, and then
22:45
Speaker 5: Dobbins got hurt for four games. So I do think
22:47
Speaker 5: that you're gonna see a significant uptick in rushing attempts
22:51
Speaker 5: for the Chargers this season, and I think it benefits
22:55
Speaker 5: Hampton the most. I mean, you don't draft a guy
22:57
Speaker 5: right there, you know, in the first round if you're
22:59
Speaker 5: not intending to use him a ton. That's just what
23:02
Speaker 5: we've seen if you go back and look at, you know,
23:04
Speaker 5: first round running back picks, especially this day and age,
23:06
Speaker 5: where you know, the position is a little bit devalued.
23:10
Speaker 5: This was a deeper running back class. So the fact
23:13
Speaker 5: that Hampton still went you know, right outside, right there,
23:16
Speaker 5: outside the top twenty in this draft to the Chargers,
23:20
Speaker 5: I think is significant. So I like him to to
23:25
Speaker 5: to be a you know, he has RB one upside.
23:28
Speaker 5: And remember Dobbins was splitting work with Gus Edwards when
23:31
Speaker 5: he was healthy too, Like Gus Edwards was hurt some
23:34
Speaker 5: of the time, but Dobbins and Edwards were kind of
23:37
Speaker 5: splitting work and Dobbins was still a very very productive,
23:41
Speaker 5: high upside back last year for the Chargers. So I
23:44
Speaker 5: think Hampton can kind of slide right in that role
23:48
Speaker 5: as a younger guy and then Nag He's going to
23:50
Speaker 5: kind of be an upgrade on Edwards, but that's a
23:54
Speaker 5: downgrade for Nause. So so I think those two guys
23:57
Speaker 5: are going in opposite directions, and I'm not even gonna
23:59
Speaker 5: talk about the duly Fork incident with mister Harris.
24:03
Speaker 1: I mean, what the fuck, I'm not a look like
24:10
Speaker 1: I've made my mistakes with fireworks. I can remind everybody
24:14
Speaker 1: of the circa nineteen eighty five bottle rocket war that
24:21
Speaker 1: my friends and I had on the playground at Revenia
24:24
Speaker 1: Grammar School.
24:25
Speaker 5: They had fireworks in nineteen eighty five.
24:28
Speaker 1: Well we made them at home, excuse matches and cardboard
24:34
Speaker 1: and hollowed out ski poles. But come on, man, like
24:39
Speaker 1: you're an adult at this point. You got to know
24:41
Speaker 1: how to manage the fireworks, especially if you're a professional athlete,
24:45
Speaker 1: especially when we have professional athlete fireworks cautionary tales stories.
24:54
Speaker 4: Good god, I have one stupid fireworks story and it's
24:59
Speaker 4: when I was sixteen, which I I think there's a
25:01
Speaker 4: cutoff after you're out of it. Once you're into your twenties,
25:03
Speaker 4: you shouldn't be having stupid fireworks conversations, right child. So
25:06
Speaker 4: my bad one was had a party in my basement
25:09
Speaker 4: sixteen years old. Buddy brings over fireworks and we have
25:13
Speaker 4: the bread idea to throw fireworks at one another in
25:15
Speaker 4: my basement.
25:16
Speaker 1: And again, Simon, that's what I did when I was
25:21
Speaker 1: fifteen years old on a playground with hollow out ski
25:25
Speaker 1: poles shooting him at each other.
25:28
Speaker 4: And sure enough, pretty drunk someone standing against a couch
25:32
Speaker 4: and it says I'm kind of hot, and they turn
25:34
Speaker 4: around in my entire couch was litt up and fire
25:37
Speaker 4: in my parents' basement and my house is not like
25:40
Speaker 4: bird plastic for a month, God bless my parents.
25:43
Speaker 3: Chad Sean, let's get to you.
25:45
Speaker 1: My guys, speaking of speaking of setting stuff on fire, set.
25:52
Speaker 3: This is Chad's question. So I'm shocked.
25:55
Speaker 4: I'm going that gets to ask it. Ben Johnson the Bears,
25:59
Speaker 4: how far it up we the fantasy aspect of it
26:01
Speaker 4: is there are there guys upgrading because of it? Like
26:04
Speaker 4: give me everything, Ben Johnson, Bears Fantasy Talk.
26:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think this is one of the biggest
26:10
Speaker 2: offseason moves was, you know, the Bears hiring Ben Johnson
26:15
Speaker 2: to be the head coach, you know, after he was
26:18
Speaker 2: the Lion's offensive coordinator the past three seasons led them
26:21
Speaker 2: to be one of the top offenses in the league.
26:25
Speaker 2: I mean, he's just like a really creative play caller,
26:29
Speaker 2: really innovative. I think he's gonna be able to maximize
26:32
Speaker 2: this offense, which you know has a handful of fantasy
26:36
Speaker 2: relevant players, but it starts with Kaya Williams, who was
26:40
Speaker 2: last year's number one overall pick, who had a very
26:43
Speaker 2: up and down rookie season. You know, sure some of
26:48
Speaker 2: that you could blame on Caleb, but I think a
26:51
Speaker 2: lot of it had to do with poor coaching, and
26:53
Speaker 2: his offensive line didn't help either.
26:55
Speaker 3: He took sixty eight sacks.
26:56
Speaker 2: I mean, if you watch any Bears game, you knew
26:58
Speaker 2: that was the big issue, was all those sacks. But
27:01
Speaker 2: according to the underlying metrics, he was responsible for about
27:05
Speaker 2: forty five percent of those sacks, which is right in
27:07
Speaker 2: line with league average. So I think just with improved
27:11
Speaker 2: offensive line, you know, they signed a handful of veterans
27:14
Speaker 2: this year, should improve the offensive line. But I think
27:17
Speaker 2: you know, Ben Johnson's ability to scheme plays should help Caleb.
27:22
Speaker 2: You know, the first read will be open, so that's gonna,
27:24
Speaker 2: you know, help prevent a lot of these detrimental sacks
27:27
Speaker 2: and throwing the ball away things like that. So I
27:29
Speaker 2: think that's gonna help A ton. I was also pleased
27:32
Speaker 2: to see you know, they they drafted two quality pass
27:35
Speaker 2: catchers in the draft in Luther Burton Colson Lovelin, who
27:38
Speaker 2: I love heading into the draft. He gives me Jimmy
27:42
Speaker 2: Graham vibes like he's gonna be a legit tight end,
27:45
Speaker 2: and I just love the fact that he landed with
27:47
Speaker 2: Ben Johnson. If you remember a couple years ago, I
27:49
Speaker 2: was all worked up that Sam Alporta got drafted by
27:52
Speaker 2: the Lions in the second round and he broke the
27:55
Speaker 2: rookie record for receptions this season until Brock Bauers broke
27:58
Speaker 2: it last year. But still it goes to show that
28:01
Speaker 2: just a really good tight end can excel as a
28:04
Speaker 2: rookie in this offense. So, you know, Loveland's a guy
28:08
Speaker 2: I've been attacking at the you know, late tight end
28:11
Speaker 2: one range. I think it's a great landing spot for
28:13
Speaker 2: him on the flip side. There could be a ripple
28:16
Speaker 2: effect here. You know, the Lions offense has been damn
28:19
Speaker 2: near perfect these last couple of seasons. So if we
28:23
Speaker 2: see any regression, which is just probably coming no matter what,
28:26
Speaker 2: I think, people will kind of point to Ben Johnson
28:28
Speaker 2: being gone being the reason why. So I think just
28:32
Speaker 2: it was a massive coaching move that impacts half of
28:35
Speaker 2: the you know, the NFC North. So I think this
28:38
Speaker 2: is just a massive, massive offseason move, and you know,
28:41
Speaker 2: it gives me confidence. Klem Williams having a year two breakout,
28:45
Speaker 2: you know, I like Dj Moore, Rumba Doonsay could bounce
28:48
Speaker 2: back this year. So it has a ton of fantasy implications.
28:51
Speaker 2: And you know a lot of people are very optimistic
28:54
Speaker 2: about the Bears this year. I know that scares you, Chad,
28:56
Speaker 2: but I think I think it's warranted.
28:58
Speaker 5: Here, don't forget about the line. They redid their entire interior.
29:02
Speaker 5: Joe Tooney, Drew Dowmon, those were both Toony was number
29:06
Speaker 5: seven out of seventy seven guards, Dowman was number four
29:09
Speaker 5: out of forty centers. And Jonah Jackson greatered highly as well.
29:13
Speaker 5: So you have that interior line. So don't even sleep
29:17
Speaker 5: on a guy like DeAndre Swift. Like, you know, like
29:19
Speaker 5: this whole offense I think could take a step forward.
29:22
Speaker 1: To Shawn's point, Number one, excellent point, Chris Raybond, I
29:27
Speaker 1: was going to say that offensive line, it could be,
29:31
Speaker 1: it will be much improved, could be a top five
29:33
Speaker 1: offensive line. Number one, Number two, Roomadunze doesn't need to
29:37
Speaker 1: bounce back. Roumadunze had a productive rookie season in a
29:42
Speaker 1: very challenging offensive environment in which his quarterback was constantly
29:46
Speaker 1: struggling and a little bit playing hero ball and didn't
29:50
Speaker 1: quite have the touch on some of the passes that
29:52
Speaker 1: went to room Madonze that he probably should have had
29:55
Speaker 1: and they probably developed better chemistry. Also, don't forget he
29:58
Speaker 1: had a terrible offensive core, a terrible head coach, and
30:02
Speaker 1: until the middle of the season none of this was
30:04
Speaker 1: going to get fixed. And then they just put everything
30:07
Speaker 1: in place to have the placeholder for the rest of
30:09
Speaker 1: the year. So like, I couldn't be more confident right now,
30:14
Speaker 1: which does not bode well for any of this. Love
30:18
Speaker 1: the Coast and Loveland pick. Love the Luther Burden pick.
30:21
Speaker 1: When Luther Burden was drafted, that was what was lighting
30:25
Speaker 1: up the Chicago Friends text chain was oh my god,
30:29
Speaker 1: we got Luther Burden. To me, this is a guy
30:32
Speaker 1: with so much upside who got dropped a little bit
30:35
Speaker 1: because for a variety of non football reasons in the draft.
30:40
Speaker 1: Ryan Poles just got a five year contract extension, and
30:44
Speaker 1: I think the enthusiasm of the moment is what got
30:47
Speaker 1: him that deal because he'd been able to draft so
30:49
Speaker 1: much talent and make some decent moves made vering the
30:52
Speaker 1: pieces on the board. So yeah, the Bears. I think
30:57
Speaker 1: it's another one talking about the playoffs, Like Simon, I'm
31:01
Speaker 1: trying to figure out. Am I being over optimistic with
31:06
Speaker 1: the Bears? Do I see the regression with the Lions?
31:08
Speaker 1: How does Jordan Love and the Packers play into this?
31:10
Speaker 4: Well, it's tough, I would say, because your division and
31:13
Speaker 4: the fact that we know that Caleb had a wasted year,
31:16
Speaker 4: like the man had no one watch a film, no
31:18
Speaker 4: one was coaching him last year. Like I'm with you,
31:20
Speaker 4: I wanted to be all in on the Bears. To me,
31:22
Speaker 4: this is like the true rookie year for Caleb. Let
31:26
Speaker 4: him comfortable on the offense. But me and Chat talk
31:29
Speaker 4: all the time that year to jump. Caleb has all
31:32
Speaker 4: the time in the world. Him and Ben Johnson if
31:35
Speaker 4: they're in kapatico in sink, Chad, I mean, I'm with you, Like,
31:39
Speaker 4: if you guys have an eight and one start nine
31:41
Speaker 4: and two, holy shit, Bears fans go crazy just because
31:45
Speaker 4: you finally have the quarterback and you have the coach.
31:47
Speaker 4: I get why you're at you're at the very edge
31:50
Speaker 4: of not just going absolutely in sand right now because
31:52
Speaker 4: the upside is so excited for this Bears offense.
31:55
Speaker 1: Get ready for misery. What do you got next?
32:00
Speaker 5: Periods added a rookie running back Travion Henderson. He is
32:04
Speaker 5: extremely fast. I think he could be kind of like
32:09
Speaker 5: that when those James White seasons, like when James White
32:12
Speaker 5: was a monster. That's that's Henderson's upside in this offense.
32:16
Speaker 5: And then Stefan Diggs, you know, it's kind of going
32:18
Speaker 5: under the radar. And yes, he's coming off an injury
32:22
Speaker 5: and he's going to a new team, but he's going
32:24
Speaker 5: outside the top forty in most fantasy drafts. And remember
32:28
Speaker 5: this is you know, Josh McDaniel's coming back here. He
32:32
Speaker 5: had a kind of aging guy in DeVante Adams a
32:35
Speaker 5: couple of years ago his first year when he went
32:38
Speaker 5: to the Raiders and they just targeted him to It
32:42
Speaker 5: was just they just forced fed him the ball. So
32:45
Speaker 5: I think with a guy like Drake may number one,
32:49
Speaker 5: I think Henderson and Diggs increased the likelihood that Drake
32:52
Speaker 5: may can take, you know, somewhat of a step forward
32:55
Speaker 5: in a year two. Now it's you know, still learning
32:57
Speaker 5: a new offense. So I'm not gonna say he's gonna
32:59
Speaker 5: be like a bona fide quarterback one, but he does
33:02
Speaker 5: have that kind of upside because he can run it too.
33:04
Speaker 5: And he just had the worst supporting cast, just guys
33:08
Speaker 5: who really couldn't create much of anything for him, uh
33:11
Speaker 5: last season. So just adding a guy like Diggs Henderson.
33:15
Speaker 5: You also added Kyle Williams in the draft. You know,
33:17
Speaker 5: Jerry's out on him, but he should. He should get
33:19
Speaker 5: a chance to play some meaningful snaps as well. So
33:22
Speaker 5: just uh an improved supporting cast from May. I think
33:25
Speaker 5: he has, Uh, he's a great quarterback two option that
33:29
Speaker 5: that you can kind of get if your weight and gigs.
33:33
Speaker 5: I think people are underestimating Diggs because you know, maybe
33:36
Speaker 5: his median projection is you know around you know that
33:39
Speaker 5: that low end wide receiver three range, but uh, his
33:42
Speaker 5: ceiling is still much higher. He could be an absolute
33:46
Speaker 5: target monster in this offense because the drop off from
33:49
Speaker 5: Diggs to everybody else, I mean it's there's no real
33:53
Speaker 5: context there. So UH really like Diggs and then and
33:56
Speaker 5: then Henderson is a guy who uh maybe used in
33:59
Speaker 5: that you know, kind of James White roll and it
34:02
Speaker 5: also is creating a little bit of value I think
34:04
Speaker 5: on Rimandre Stevenson as well, because uh, you know where
34:08
Speaker 5: he's going, like outside the top forty at running back,
34:11
Speaker 5: he could still be the lead back, and Henderson you know,
34:15
Speaker 5: could get you know, a lot of his touches in
34:17
Speaker 5: the receiving game as well. So I do think there's
34:20
Speaker 5: some intrigue here. And this is another one of these
34:22
Speaker 5: offenses where people just don't really know what to do
34:25
Speaker 5: with it, and so all these guys are kind of
34:28
Speaker 5: going like there's no one really going that high in drafts.
34:31
Speaker 5: But I think Drake May is an extremely talented quarterback
34:35
Speaker 5: and you know, just going to a competent offense with
34:38
Speaker 5: a competent supporting cast this year, the old line should
34:41
Speaker 5: be better to should should be night and day for
34:44
Speaker 5: Drake May, even though you know that he's kind of
34:47
Speaker 5: going to that McDaniel's offense, which is is a new offense.
34:50
Speaker 5: But I really think Stefan Diggs is being being underrated.
34:54
Speaker 1: Here, quick, Paul, before we get before Simon, you ask
34:58
Speaker 1: coroner his next this next question. Quick, I've set a
35:01
Speaker 1: line in my head of how many wins Mike Vrabel
35:07
Speaker 1: will be responsible for this season because of excellent, thoughtful
35:15
Speaker 1: coaching decisions. I've got the line in my head. I
35:19
Speaker 1: will tell you if you've gone over under after everyone
35:21
Speaker 1: gives me their answer, Simon, give me your answer. How
35:23
Speaker 1: many wins is Mike Rabel personally responsible for because of
35:26
Speaker 1: strategic decisions?
35:29
Speaker 3: Cruner, I'm gonna go with your line is exactly one
35:33
Speaker 3: and a half.
35:35
Speaker 1: I like where you're hat you're at. You're wrong, but
35:38
Speaker 1: give me your answer.
35:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll say one.
35:42
Speaker 1: Huh interesting, Okay, Ray Buon, I.
35:46
Speaker 5: Would put the line at two and a half. You're
35:51
Speaker 5: in a division with the Jets, baby and Dolphins and
35:55
Speaker 5: the Dolphins, So.
35:56
Speaker 1: What's your number on how many wins he gets you?
35:58
Speaker 5: I mean, I think I think it's gonna be too
36:00
Speaker 5: like realistically, like if you look at his like the
36:04
Speaker 5: pittagger and wins versus actual he's usually above, you know,
36:08
Speaker 5: overperformed somewhere in that ring. So yeah, I wouldn't see
36:11
Speaker 5: it out of the question. He's definitely adding at least
36:14
Speaker 5: at least one, but I do think he can add
36:17
Speaker 5: multiple So I'm gonna go somewhere between two and three.
36:20
Speaker 1: My line was two and a half and my expectation
36:24
Speaker 1: was three. There you go, Chris RAYBN and I as
36:28
Speaker 1: usual a midseason mind meld. Simon, take it.
36:33
Speaker 4: Away, show you have another great name on the list here.
36:36
Speaker 3: I am an another one calling my shot.
36:39
Speaker 4: I am down on Puoka. To me, he's one of
36:41
Speaker 4: the most overdrafted players right now in fancy football. Would
36:44
Speaker 4: not be taking Puoka in the first round. You're out
36:46
Speaker 4: of your mind. You're taking a guy with his injury risk.
36:49
Speaker 4: No one's down to talent. It just cann you stay
36:52
Speaker 4: healthy now, he's no doubt Number one. Break it down
36:55
Speaker 4: to me, Devanta Adams, I am draft him in every league.
36:58
Speaker 4: I'm all in on Devanti Atam.
37:00
Speaker 3: Sim and Stafford.
37:01
Speaker 4: To me, that's the perfect mix in this McVay offense
37:04
Speaker 4: of schemed open receiver and his style where he is
37:08
Speaker 4: so smooth, still still got at his old age.
37:10
Speaker 3: I mean shocking.
37:12
Speaker 4: He could burn corners young twenty one year olds last
37:14
Speaker 4: year on the Jets, even more motivated this season. Where
37:17
Speaker 4: are you at with Dwatt the Adams in the Rams?
37:21
Speaker 2: So first off, I'm not low on Pooka at all,
37:23
Speaker 2: that's all you. But I'm in agreement, I've been agreement
37:27
Speaker 2: with you that this is a good fit. You know,
37:30
Speaker 2: DeVante going to the Rams with McVeigh. You know, this
37:33
Speaker 2: is a third team in the last twelve months, so
37:35
Speaker 2: I think people are sick of just projecting him on
37:38
Speaker 2: new teams. That's why this might be flying under the
37:39
Speaker 2: radar a bit. Plus, you know, he's thirty two, so
37:42
Speaker 2: he's clearly in the decline phase of his career. But
37:45
Speaker 2: he looked great last year, so I think he still
37:48
Speaker 2: has one or two really solid seasons left at least.
37:52
Speaker 2: But I think this is this is a great landing
37:54
Speaker 2: spot for you know, Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense,
37:57
Speaker 2: who really struggled in goal to goal gold to go.
38:00
Speaker 3: Situations last year.
38:02
Speaker 2: Stafford only completed forty one percent of his passes in
38:06
Speaker 2: gold to go situations, which is thirty second out of
38:09
Speaker 2: forty one quarterbacks. So he only threw twenty touchdowns, which
38:13
Speaker 2: is the fewest in any season of his career where
38:16
Speaker 2: he's played fifteen plus games. So that's where I think
38:19
Speaker 2: Adams can immediately make an impact just being you know,
38:23
Speaker 2: elite end zone threat for him. So you know, it's
38:27
Speaker 2: gonna help boost the incoming positive touch on aggression. But
38:30
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna help this offense because you know,
38:33
Speaker 2: Pooka Niku is great getting the ball down the field
38:35
Speaker 2: and into the red zone, but he hasn't been much
38:37
Speaker 2: of a touchdown guy. And you know, Cooper Cup hate
38:40
Speaker 2: to say it, but he was sort of washed last
38:42
Speaker 2: year and he was banged up, so Stafford didn't really
38:45
Speaker 2: have that second option like he typically does. So that's
38:47
Speaker 2: where Adams is gonna step up. And this this is
38:49
Speaker 2: really huge for Matthew Stafford, I think, and I can't
38:52
Speaker 2: go a whole show without a player prop, so I
38:54
Speaker 2: would say that the actual advice here is Matthew Stafford's
38:58
Speaker 2: passing touchdown prop is twenty two and a half.
39:01
Speaker 3: I think that's a couple touchdowns too low.
39:03
Speaker 2: So I'm taking that over because he is due for
39:06
Speaker 2: some positive touchdown regression solely due to you know, Devonte
39:09
Speaker 2: Adams being in the mix this year.
39:12
Speaker 1: Well Snon loves Matthew Stafford, loves Matthew Stafford, raybond to that.
39:18
Speaker 5: Well baby, don't forget about him. He's gonna see, he's
39:21
Speaker 5: gonna he's gonna be a full time player this year.
39:23
Speaker 5: Got that ten million dollar deal. So I'm taking a
39:25
Speaker 5: lot of him in Best Ball as well.
39:27
Speaker 1: Adam is Old speaking of receivers and.
39:30
Speaker 5: Pukah's injury prone to your points.
39:32
Speaker 1: Raybon, speaking of receivers, Will Matthew be golden in Green Bay?
39:40
Speaker 5: I think so. I think this golden draft pick for
39:44
Speaker 5: the Packers has the potential to kind of not only
39:50
Speaker 5: work for him in particular, I think he could be
39:52
Speaker 5: the Packers number one wide receiver this year. I know
39:55
Speaker 5: he's kind of going outside the top forty, right outside
39:58
Speaker 5: the top forty. A lot of people, you know, not
40:01
Speaker 5: sure exactly what his role is going to be. But
40:04
Speaker 5: everything the Packers have done over the last year or
40:09
Speaker 5: so in terms of their front office moves at the
40:13
Speaker 5: receiver position and just you know, in play calling have
40:16
Speaker 5: kind of told us they just didn't like their receiver
40:19
Speaker 5: room last year. And I think they're looking for a
40:23
Speaker 5: new number one type of guy because if you look
40:26
Speaker 5: at last year, they really did not throw the football
40:31
Speaker 5: with Jordan Love. And if you look at Jordan Love's
40:33
Speaker 5: efficiency metrics, Jordan Love was top five almost across the board.
40:37
Speaker 5: So Jordan Love really didn't fall off. It wasn't so
40:41
Speaker 5: much of like, oh, let's high Jordan Love. I know
40:43
Speaker 5: he had some interception issues at one point. But he
40:46
Speaker 5: was still excellent in all the you know, important metrics.
40:50
Speaker 5: He just didn't really throw a lot of passes. And
40:53
Speaker 5: you saw Watson, they were trying to increase his snaps.
40:57
Speaker 5: He got hurt again. Now he's probably out for at
40:59
Speaker 5: least half to see and I think he said he
41:01
Speaker 5: wasn't going to come back to like WE twelve or
41:03
Speaker 5: something like that. Uh. And you look at you know,
41:07
Speaker 5: Romeo Doves. They hasn't had one hundred yard receiving game
41:11
Speaker 5: in the regular season. Uh, you know that's their guy.
41:14
Speaker 5: That's the guy that was getting the most snaps for them.
41:16
Speaker 5: Jayden Reid, like his agent or somebody had to come
41:19
Speaker 5: out and say he's their number one receiver. This guy
41:21
Speaker 5: got four and a half four point four targets per
41:24
Speaker 5: game last year. That's their supposed number one receiver. Like
41:28
Speaker 5: I think Golden has a massive, massive opportunity right from
41:32
Speaker 5: the jump. Dantavian Wicks runs good routes, comes down to
41:36
Speaker 5: catch the ball. He doesn't do it. And every time
41:39
Speaker 5: guys have been healthy, Wicks plays like five percent of snap.
41:42
Speaker 5: So they're telling us they want they see him as
41:44
Speaker 5: a number four or five guy. Bo Melton, who had
41:47
Speaker 5: some moments they they they're playing him at cornerback like
41:50
Speaker 5: they just did not they were not feeling it. So
41:53
Speaker 5: I think the you know, with Golden in tow, I
41:56
Speaker 5: think they their volume could increase this year, their pass volume.
42:00
Speaker 5: And I think, you know, with Jordan Love, those are
42:03
Speaker 5: the kind of throws he could make down the field.
42:07
Speaker 5: Really hasn't had a guy quite like that. You know,
42:09
Speaker 5: Watson was kind of a speed guy down the field,
42:11
Speaker 5: a little bit of different player, but they really haven't
42:13
Speaker 5: had a guy like Golden, you know, for Jordan Love.
42:17
Speaker 5: So I think it could increase the value of Golden himself.
42:20
Speaker 5: I think he's going to be the number one when
42:22
Speaker 5: it's all said and done. But I also think Dayden
42:24
Speaker 5: Reed could take a step forward in terms of his
42:26
Speaker 5: numbers just because the Packers are going to pass more
42:29
Speaker 5: so even if reasons not the number one, and he
42:31
Speaker 5: could be, but even like he's also going outside the
42:34
Speaker 5: top forty now. So I think you have value on
42:37
Speaker 5: both of those guys. Just because Golden has been added
42:39
Speaker 5: to the mix. I think it left them play Dobbs
42:42
Speaker 5: a little bit less than May and it lets them
42:45
Speaker 5: play Wicks a little bit less. So they're gonna have
42:47
Speaker 5: a very talented receiving corps. Jordan Love was you know,
42:52
Speaker 5: very very good last year. Eight point zero yards per
42:54
Speaker 5: attempt that was fifth in the league. You know, his
42:57
Speaker 5: QBR sixty nine point three, that was fifth in the league.
43:01
Speaker 5: So you just add some some volume there. And I
43:04
Speaker 5: think these Packers receivers, these top two guys reading Golden
43:09
Speaker 5: are gonna eat regardless. So I really like this move
43:13
Speaker 5: for Golden, but I think the path is wide open
43:15
Speaker 5: for him to be that number one because you know,
43:17
Speaker 5: Dobbs really isn't that guy Wix. They don't really want
43:21
Speaker 5: to play like that, and and reed they they only
43:24
Speaker 5: play him in three wide personnel. So I think that
43:28
Speaker 5: will increase this year because I think they throw more,
43:30
Speaker 5: but that they've pretty much capped his snaps two years
43:34
Speaker 5: straight and now they went out and got you know,
43:38
Speaker 5: a guy who in the first round. So I think
43:40
Speaker 5: that this this is a significant move. I think, you know,
43:43
Speaker 5: when you look at number one receivers like they have,
43:46
Speaker 5: they've had a you know, a twenty percent of them
43:51
Speaker 5: have ended up finishing as a wide receiver one that
43:54
Speaker 5: go in the first round. So it depends on the
43:56
Speaker 5: class year year over year. But I think people are
43:59
Speaker 5: kind of sweep on this year's class because they got
44:02
Speaker 5: drafted into, you know, these crowded spots in terms of
44:05
Speaker 5: you know, Abuka, Matthew Golden. But with Golden especially, he
44:09
Speaker 5: has the quarterback and he has the pass to be
44:12
Speaker 5: their number one and that's all you can ask for
44:14
Speaker 5: when you're drafting a guy as your wide receiver. For so,
44:18
Speaker 5: I think Golden is a smash, and I think Reed
44:21
Speaker 5: is undervalued as well, and Jordan loves as well.
44:24
Speaker 1: Seems like a golden opportunity to find some upside, doesn't it.
44:30
Speaker 1: Simon Sean, we got to talk about it.
44:36
Speaker 4: No comment the Texans. Who the hell is catching the
44:39
Speaker 4: ball for the Texans that coming season? We know CJ's
44:41
Speaker 4: been putting the ball downfield. He can make nobody's into somebody.
44:45
Speaker 4: Who is the steel of the draft this year for
44:47
Speaker 4: this Texas receiver crew.
44:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, so my first four we're just big moves. I'm
44:53
Speaker 2: not saying I'm drafting a ton of those storylines. This
44:56
Speaker 2: is a guy I am drafting a ton of. So
44:59
Speaker 2: it's Jayden Higgins going to the Texans in round two.
45:03
Speaker 2: I just love that landing spot. And you know they
45:06
Speaker 2: already have Nico Collins, who is I consider one of
45:08
Speaker 2: the best receivers in the league. So Higgins ceiling is still,
45:11
Speaker 2: you know, just the number two receiver on this team.
45:14
Speaker 3: But I think, you know, CJ.
45:15
Speaker 2: Stroud should bounce back here in year three, and this
45:17
Speaker 2: offense is more than capable of supporting two, you know,
45:22
Speaker 2: high end, fancy wide receivers. And I just love Higgins
45:26
Speaker 2: as a prospect. You know, he's a bigger receiver, six'
45:29
Speaker 2: four two fifteen, pounds really good, measurables really good at
45:34
Speaker 2: catching the. Ball he had one of the lowest drop
45:35
Speaker 2: rates in college last. Year and, ironically Like, mike comp for.
45:39
Speaker 2: HIM i tried to find somebody else because this seems,
45:41
Speaker 2: lazy but IT'S T. HIGGINS i, mean no, relation but
45:45
Speaker 2: they're almost like. Identical and my my comp For Brian
45:48
Speaker 2: thomas junior Is Randy. MOSS i couldn't find anybody else
45:52
Speaker 2: to comp for, him So i'm just sticking WITH. T
45:53
Speaker 2: higgins being my comp For Jaden. Higgins SO i, think you,
45:56
Speaker 2: Know stroud could have a high quality number two two wide,
46:00
Speaker 2: receiver AND i know they brought In Christian, kirk you,
46:02
Speaker 2: know who could soak up some targets but we have
46:05
Speaker 2: to remember they did Lose Stefan, diggs and you, Know
46:08
Speaker 2: Tank dell had that very unfortunate leg entry at the
46:11
Speaker 2: end of the season last, year so he's probably gonna
46:13
Speaker 2: miss the entire. Season so there is room For higgins
46:16
Speaker 2: to be the number two. Target and you, know defenses
46:19
Speaker 2: they have to pay attention To Nico collins double team
46:22
Speaker 2: him at, times SO i Think higgins could make him.
46:24
Speaker 2: Pay so he's being drafted just outside the top fifty
46:27
Speaker 2: wide receivers right, now and that's like the perfect range
46:31
Speaker 2: to take a rookie wide receiver THAT i, think you,
46:33
Speaker 2: know people are still. Overlooking he's a guy THAT i
46:35
Speaker 2: could see making a couple splash plays in preseason and
46:38
Speaker 2: have HIS adp shoot. Up So i've been trying to
46:40
Speaker 2: get ahead of that and Drafting, higgins you, know as
46:42
Speaker 2: much AS i can these early.
46:43
Speaker 1: Drafts all, right let me recap the top ten offseason
46:48
Speaker 1: moves according To Fantasy pros top ten player projection Experts
46:57
Speaker 1: Sean kerner And Chris. Raybond chris said that his biggest
47:02
Speaker 1: move was head Coach Liam cohen to The Jacksonville. Jaguars
47:06
Speaker 1: sean's biggest Move Travis hunter to The Jacksonville. Jaguars chris
47:12
Speaker 1: also likes the combination Of Aaron, RODGERS Dk, Metcalf john
47:17
Speaker 1: New smith to The Pittsburgh. Steelers kerner Loves Ashton genty
47:22
Speaker 1: to The, Raiders Chris Omario hampton And Nijee harris to The.
47:27
Speaker 1: Chargers kerner kind of an obvious captain Obvious Ben johnson
47:33
Speaker 1: to The, bears not hating. It Chris Traveon henderson and
47:38
Speaker 1: stuff On diggs gets To New, england although the biggest
47:41
Speaker 1: impact move there is still going to Be Mike rabel
47:43
Speaker 1: Coloner DeVante adams to The, Rams Chris Matthew golden receiver
47:47
Speaker 1: to The, Packers Coloner Jaden higgins receiver to The. Texans
47:53
Speaker 1: get more of this fabulous content and information to win
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48:03
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