Latest / Trumponomics / Episode 23: Kill A Mosquito, Help The Global Economy

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Episode 23: Kill A Mosquito, Help The Global Economy · Trumponomics

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: And this might be a little bit t m I
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: for our listeners, but I'm really allergic to mosquitoes, and
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: i feel like I'm also really attractive to mosquitoes. Yes,
• 0:12
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  Speaker 1: risk and may not be appropriate for all investors. Hi,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: and welcome back to Bloomberg Benchmark ut podcast about the
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: global economy. It is Thursday, February fourth. I'm Tory Stillwell
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: and economics reporter with Bloomberg News and DC and I
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: am fine solo today. My co host Acky Edo and
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Dan Moss are running around being busy see people. But
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: we do have a very special episode for you guys today.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: It is all about a topic that fills me with
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: dread at the mirror mention of it, mosquitoes. And to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: sort of shed more light on that, we have brought
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: in a super expert as my guest and also sort
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: of co host for the episode. Um, we have Don
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Shepherd joining us from Brandeis University. He's a health economist
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: who has focused on the control of mosquitoes in his research. Professor,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Thanks so much
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: for the invitation to be on the show. I know
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  Speaker 1: lots of people who get a few mosquito bites during
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: the summer or whatever. They think they're annoying. And this
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit t m I for our listeners,
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: but I'm really allergic to mosquitoes, and I feel like
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: I'm also really attractive to mosquitoes. I get bit like
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: no one I know. They terrify me. I have really
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: intense reactions to them. So like anything to do with mosquitoes,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: I'm not down with. What about you, don, Um, I
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: don't get too many. Frankly, mosquitoes don't want the lucky ones. Yeah,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: so I get some. I don't think I have. They
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: don't think I'm allergic to them. They certainly do annoy
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: me when I get them, though I try to avoid
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: them when again, Yeah, my mom calls it that brown sugar.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: But I'm not I'm not sure that. Well, anyways, why
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: are we talking about mosquitoes? It's probably a pretty easy
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: guess that zeka. It's been in the news this week.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: The World Health Organization declared ZEKA a global public health emergency,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: and while they've only deployed that type of warning three
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: times before, this is the latest in a seemingly never
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: ending series of global health scares. We've had a bowler, now, stars,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: swine flu, MERSA, the list goes on, and ZEKA is
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: mostly transmitted through a certain species of mosquito. Right the
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: am I saying it right? Eighties? Is that how I
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: get the eighties? And Gypti? It's the full name of
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: the mosquito mostly transmits the zico virus, right, And the
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: most common symptoms of ZEKA are fever, rash, joint pain,
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  Speaker 1: and from most people who get sick, the illness is
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: pretty mild. It's not um a life threatening injury. But
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: you know, excuse me, illness not injury. But health experts
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: are concerned because the people who appear to be at
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: the highest level of risk from ZEKA are pregnant women.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Is that right, Yes, it affects the woman's fetus. So
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the thing that's really serious about the ZCO virus is
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: the the virus affects the brain of the developing fetus,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: making the brain and the head smaller, a condition that
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: health experts called micro cepily. Microceptily obviously a big concern here.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: The baby is born with unusually small skulls, a big worry.
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  Speaker 1: And also another another concern here is that there's a
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: lack of vaccines and reliable testing, And in Latin America,
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  Speaker 1: where it's spreading rapidly, there's no real immunity in the
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: population because the Americans are being effective for the first time.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So what does this have to do with economics, many
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: of our listeners are probably asking themselves right now, And
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: it's actually kind of a lot. As your research has
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: shown um in many Asian, Latin American, and African countries,
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: mosquitoes and the illnesses they carry come with a huge
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: economic costs. And while we're lucky that that's not as
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: much of a risk here in the US, there is
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  Speaker 1: research from you that shows that they still significantly reduce
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  Speaker 1: our quality of life, so much so that people would
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  Speaker 1: be willing to pay a pretty hefty chuck of money
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  Speaker 1: to get rid of them. So let's talk more about
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: that if you don't mind, sure, so. The mosquito the
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  Speaker 1: transport Zeka fortunately is only on the southern periphery of
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: the United States and occasionally in Hawaii. But a close
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: relative of that mosquito that can stand a cooler climates
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: is throughout the eastern seaboard UH of the United States
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: up through the New York metropolitan area. That one called
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: the eighties albo pictus mosquito, otherwise known as the Asian
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  Speaker 1: tiger mosquito sounds appropriately terrifying. Go on so um that
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  Speaker 1: mosquito first hitch tike to this country about thirty years
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: ago in used tires that were imported, and the water
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: and the tires provided a perfect breeding spot. And once
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: the tires reached here, the mosquito has become established and
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: continue to to breed in the United States. That mosquito
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  Speaker 1: UH doesn't carry disease so far in the United States,
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  Speaker 1: although it has in other parts of the world, but
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: has proved to be a major nuisance. It's a daytime
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: biting mosquito and limits people's ability to spend time outdoors. Well.
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  Speaker 1: Your research suggested that assuming a person had no budget
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  Speaker 1: constraints and got the same amount of satisfaction with every
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: additional hour spent outdoors, A person would be willing to
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: pay almost a thousand dollars to enjoy their yard activities
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  Speaker 1: for a thirteen weeks summer period with our mosquitoes. That
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  Speaker 1: blew my mind when I read it. I think I
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: would be willing to pay that. I would probably be
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: willing to double. So that economic value of of what
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: somebody are willing to pay UH substantially exceeds the the
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: cost that it would take to control the mosquito, suggesting
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: that a control effort would be economically worthwhile. That's a
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: good point. We we estimated it for each dollar spent
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: on controlling, the economic value in terms of this time
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: enjoyment released would be eight dollars, so an eight a
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: ratio of eight to one for controlling this mosquito. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: The respondents and in your research rated the importance of
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: enjoying their outdoor activities without mosquitoes comparable to that of
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: neighborhood safety and higher than that of a clean neighborhood.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: That's right. We we surveyed residents in New Jersey is
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  Speaker 1: part of a demonstration project conducted in collaboration with the
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: U S Department of Agriculture and Rutgers University. And as
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: you are, the summarize found this very high rating of
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  Speaker 1: the the nuisance that the mosquito imposed in the value
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: that what people would put on the time free of
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: the Asian tiger mosquito. Well, let's take a quick break
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: and when we come back, I want to switch gears
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: back to Zeke and really start telling the economic costs
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: of healthcare related ones, um and and many others that
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: are sort of related to the idea of illnesses that
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: mosquitoes bear. After we come back from this break, what
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• 8:39
  Speaker 1: may not be appropriate for all investors. So let's talk
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: about the most obvious sort of economic costs. So we
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: seate with mosquitoes, which are the costs associated with the
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: illnesses they carry? Uh don some of your research that
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  Speaker 1: you did a few years backed looked at the direct
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  Speaker 1: and indirect costs of dangay in eight American and Asian countries.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: And a little more about dangai for our listeners who
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: might not be familiar. It's a mosquito born viral infection
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  Speaker 1: that causes flu like illnesses and if it develops into
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  Speaker 1: something severe enough, it can be lethal. There's no real treatment,
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  Speaker 1: there's no vaccine to protect against it, and almost half
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  Speaker 1: of the world's population is at risk. Yeah. One one
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: update on the vaccine. That's very encouraging that the vaccine
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: has been a formidable scientific challenge and the first vaccine
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: was licensed at the very end of in three countries,
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  Speaker 1: and one of those, the Philippines, has said it plans
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  Speaker 1: to start to introduce it into its public program. So
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: what you said about no vaccine was was correct as
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: of the last Thanksgiving, but this situation is now starting
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  Speaker 1: to improve terrific well, Professor Shephard, your research put the
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  Speaker 1: collective economic burden of dinging just those eight countries that
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  Speaker 1: you studied at as much as one point eight billion
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  Speaker 1: dollars annually. It's a huge number and it's for just
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  Speaker 1: eight countries. So how did you go about telling that
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  Speaker 1: and arriving at at that figure? Sure, say that, and
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  Speaker 1: then we've extended to other countries too to get the burden.
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  Speaker 1: Uh one, first twice to look at one case of
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: dinghy illness to understand what the burden is on the
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  Speaker 1: health care system. And the so called indirect cost is
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  Speaker 1: the value of lost time lost time by a family
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  Speaker 1: in which somebody has dangy. So we're um our studies
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  Speaker 1: collaborating with researchers in each of the endemic countries has
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  Speaker 1: surveyed patients who experienced dinghy to see what medical service
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  Speaker 1: as they used, the amounts of money that they spent
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  Speaker 1: or their families spent out of pocket buying drugs and supplies,
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  Speaker 1: and in many cases they availed themselves of government run
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  Speaker 1: healthcare systems. And we looked at what the government spent
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  Speaker 1: to run hospitals and clinics that provided treatment and this.
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  Speaker 1: The sum of all of these medical services are what
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  Speaker 1: are called the direct costs of dangi. Uh. Then we
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  Speaker 1: also interviewed people about the time that they lost due
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  Speaker 1: to the illness or if it was a child, particularly
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  Speaker 1: the time and other family members lost a parent and
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  Speaker 1: older siblings having to take care of the child or
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: feel in a task that the that someone else would
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  Speaker 1: have done, and so uh calculating the time lost and
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  Speaker 1: the value of that is what's called the indirect cost
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  Speaker 1: of dangy illness. Wow, and I liked this that that
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  Speaker 1: was in UM in your research at was very insightful.
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  Speaker 1: So among hospitalized patients, students lost five point six days
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  Speaker 1: of school and for those who are working, people who
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: are working, they lost almost ten days of work per average.
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  Speaker 1: Daing a episode. This just sounds like a lot, right,
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  Speaker 1: It took um. It's a feedby episode, but a nickname
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  Speaker 1: for it is bone break fever. I feel fortunate it's
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  Speaker 1: a disease I haven't personally had to experience. While it's
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  Speaker 1: a feed by illness, it's uh it's an extremely uncomfortable illness.
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  Speaker 1: So uh, people have an acute part that's uh typically
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  Speaker 1: a couple of weeks and then about ten percent of
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: patients will still experience symptoms several months later, where they
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: may have depression or fatigue as a long run consequence
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  Speaker 1: of this illness. So if we were to sort of
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: zoom out and think broadly about this, because mosquito born illnesses,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: it's not just in, it's not just zeka, it's Westnile virus,
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  Speaker 1: it's yellow fever, there are more. I mean, how big
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: do you think the total economic costs associated with mosquitoes
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: and the sort of problems that they bring our is it?
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Is it even possible to put a number on that.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: I'm sure it's huge. So danghy Is is a virus. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: We've estimated that the global cost of danghy per years
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  Speaker 1: about nine billion US dollars. Other another major mosquito born
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  Speaker 1: disease is a parasitic illness, malaria. I don't have a
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  Speaker 1: dollar figure at my fingertips, but that's probably even larger
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: because of the uh uh many many millions of cases
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: of illness and death due to malaria. So mosquito born
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  Speaker 1: illnesses are enormous economic cost and society would reap enormous
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: benefits if we're able to fully control them. Right, that
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: was a really important question that I wanted to bring up,
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  Speaker 1: so I'm glad he brought us there. I mean, would
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  Speaker 1: it be possible to just eradicate mosquito, just wipe them
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  Speaker 1: off the face of the planet. Can we do it?
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: So we can dream about that. I think at the moment,
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  Speaker 1: I don't believe we have the tools to do that.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: So one example of a promising product is um a
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: type of insecticide it's called auto dispersal where extremely potent
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: and the mosquito will get will you put it in
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: some containers and then the mosquito will transport that to
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: other breeding sites and would then kill the larvae in
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: another breeding site. So that's is a technique that's it's
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: being used at small scales so far is perfected to
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  Speaker 1: the stage that it uh can stop all mosquito breeding,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: but potentially refinement of that might allow us to eliminate mosquitoes.
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  Speaker 1: The challenge has been the mosquitoes are more clever than
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: people hunting mosquitoes, so they find very tiny breeding places
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: that the mosquito can find, uh, and people trying to
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: control the mosquito haven't yet been able to find so uh. So,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: for example, Singapore is the country that's had the most
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: vigorous mosquito control program in the world and for a
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: couple of decades substantially reduced the burden of mosquito born illness.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: So they are they trying to eradicate mosquitoes, and Singapore
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: is at their goal, they know. I think they think
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: they realized that that wasn't feasible. They were trying to
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: substantially reduce mosquito born disease, specifically dangy, by keeping the
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: population of mosquitoes very low, and they uh, they did
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  Speaker 1: keep it low, but they couldn't eliminate them, and the
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: mosquitoes that were there still there served to transmit diseases,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: and they were in Singapore's case. The fact that the
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: people became susceptible UH to Dangy meant that a low
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: level of mosquitoes was still enough to allow very nasty
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: outbreaks of this disease, much like the Zica outbreaks that
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: you spoke about in Latin America. So it sounds like
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: they will outlast us on this planet, well, at least
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: for the next decade or two. Maybe if if scientists
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: can come up with new control techniques, UH will be successful.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: I think the control techniques are are an important thing
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: to think about two in the context of climate change,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: and and maybe it becomes more urgent to then work
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: on those techniques because UM a couple of things that
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: I looked at said that climate change would allow mosquitoes,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: who carries certain illnesses to spread to places where they
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: aren't currently. Like you mentioned the eighties, UM and gypti
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: is is in certain states in the Deep South, and
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: they can. They can. They've been found farther north, but
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: that's not really their their home range. It's not really
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: where they do their thing. But if we do have
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: climate change and we get warmer climates and what our climates,
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: that could allow them to have a wider range, right, Danky,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: thank you. One of our failures in public health, countries
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: that didn't have UM, didn't have mosquitoes or didn't have
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: DANKY have had outbreaks. So in South America, UH, Paraguay
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: as an example, UM and Argentina have seen outbreaks in
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: recent years. In the United States, for many decades, we
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: didn't have dany transmission on the mainland of the United States,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: but have seen it on the Texas border and in
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Florida in recent years. So it's climate change. Is one factor.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: Movement of people is another factor, and so the two
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: the two interact together and have caused this mosquito and
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: the diseases that carry, unfortunately to spread. Well. This has
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: been a fascinating topic. Um. I think that it's really
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: easy to sort of think about the economic costs of mosquitoes.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: It is just, you know, people getting sick and then
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: us having to take care of them and them having
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: to pay to take care of themselves. But I also
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: really liked your points on sort of missing school, missing work.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: I'm also picturing in my head people sort of swatting
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: mosquitoes out of their faces while they're working. Productivity perhaps
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: takes a hit, right, both both at nuisance and then
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: more importantly from time that people are ill. They may
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: miss work entirely or not be able to work as
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: productively as they would otherwise. One other statistical uh redun
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: case that's helpful for the show I found the distribution
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: of dingy costs on a global basis. I mentioned the
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: total was about nine billion U S dollars globally of
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: presented in a conference that I presented out in Brazil
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: in November, and of that, about twelve of that is
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: the economic loss for cases that proved to be fatal. Ah,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: that's a really interesting point. Our costs of hospitalized UH
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: non fatal cases or cases that go to clinics and doctors,
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: and and then there's also a cost of cases that
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: don't seek medical care at all but still experienced illness.
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: And that's about eight percent of the global costs. That's
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: really each of these different settings um UH imposes a
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: cost of of tanking UH that's paid by households, by governments,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: and by employers. This has been a great conversation, insightful
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: yet very scary. Okay, thank you so much, dot I
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: appreciate it. Well, Thanks Victoria for the chance to talk today,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: and thanks see you all for listening to Bloomberg Benchmark.
• 20:39
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• 21:57
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• 21:59
  Speaker 1: through short term dips and price fluctuations. Nate x binary
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  Speaker 1: options that you turn those short term movements into trading opportunities.
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  Speaker 1: so your risk is always limited. Trade stock in dissees,
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  Speaker 1: commodities for X, even Bitcoin in economic numbers, all from
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  Speaker 1: one account on a CFTC regulated US exchange. Instead of
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  Speaker 1: just watching the markets ups and downs, turn them into
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  Speaker 1: of trading n A, d e X dot com, futures,
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• 22:33
  Speaker 1: appropriate for all investors.