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The Favorites - Friday March Madness Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume and
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I'm Chad Mollman, Chief Content Officer of the
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Action Network. We are still talking March Madness, folks. We're
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: going to dive deep into the bets you need to
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: make for Friday with one of our Action Network college
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: basketball experts, Mike Calabris. You hear him all over the
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: BBOC podcasts all football season long. He's amazing on college basketball.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: He was on our preview show on Sunday night spewing knowledge.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Before we get to Calabris, let me bring in my
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: co host, my bff, my companion, Mike and Padre professional
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Better or Simon Hunter. Hello sewing In, Hello Chad. Just
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: in time for kickoff of the March Badness. We do
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: a show, Gotta love it, lemon am here we are
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: for twelve was it twelve am or twelve pm? They
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: kick off these games, dude, It's called tip off, man,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Fuck it's tip off it's all right. Listen, listen, I
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: know where your head is at Your head is the
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: same place my head is, which is how amazing are
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears, which will be a continued theme for
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: this podcast. Whether we're talking in March madness, whether we're
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: talking Masters, whether we're talking NBA playoffs, whether we are
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: talking baseball, it's not gonna matter. The Chicago Bears are
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: marching their way to the super Bowl this year. That
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: odds are dropping. Let's bring in Mike Calabres, who, by
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: the way, the man knows a little bit of something
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: about betting because in a into being from a family
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: of degenerates. And I say that lovingly, I assume love
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: and affection. I say that if people don't listen to
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: the Group of Five podcasts that Calabris does during the
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: season on BBOC, these guys they freaking nail their picks
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: like it's uncanny. Calabries, how much you know about the
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Group of Five, it's pretty impressive. Nice job. Well, I
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: appreciate that. I think it's time to step into the
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: tea box, drop the puck, get ready for this basketball action.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: You know, try to too as many cross supports references
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: as we can. Yeah, I agree. This is such a
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: fun time of year, and for me, people come out
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: of the woodwork. It's you know, friends, family, a lot
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: of ex girlfriends. Oh hey, could you help me with
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: dear bracket? You know, who do you think's going all
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: the way? So depending on how those relationships ended, I'm
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: giving out some Easter eggs and I'm also giving out
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: some soon cold dead losers, just for the first round,
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: just to turn turn the knife a little bit. But yes,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: I'm here to provide as much insight as I can.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Because when I'm tolling away in mid major Land in January,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: no one wants to talk about Grand Canyon. But now
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden, I'm the bell of the ball.
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  Speaker 1: People are like, tell me everything you know about the Lopes.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Let's get to it. Well, listen, I want to remind
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: people as I have all you know month long. We're
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: talking about the game Time ticketing app, which is the
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: fastest growing ticketing app in the US. You know, I
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: love it, I do. I use it all the time.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: If you've been looking to get out to a pro
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: or college game this week, or even a concert, game
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  Speaker 1: Time has amazing last minute deals on tickets to all
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  Speaker 1: of these events. I'm actually going to open game Time
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• 4:49
  Speaker 1: behold what can I go? See? Hey? Look at that
• 4:52
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• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the building for forty three bucks and it's good seat
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  Speaker 1: Get out have some fun this week. You deserve it.
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• 5:18
  Speaker 1: tickets a little sprice guaranteed Calabris. It's Thursday, we got
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: games tomorrow. Obviously, people listening to this, We're not going
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: to try to tell you who to bet in the
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: middle of a Thursday when games are kicking off and
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: we're dropping the puck and it's you know, opening pitch
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: going up until about ten thirty to night. But we
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: do want to focus on Friday. I listened to the
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Road to the Final Score Show, and listen to watch
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: the Road to the Final Score Show with you and
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Stucky and Anthony du Bundo and Mariam. Are you know
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: on Sunday you can still check all that out on
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: YouTube Action Network YouTube page. You had a lot to say,
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: and I liked a lot of what you were talking about.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: I was picking up a lot of what you were
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  Speaker 1: laying down. Give me your best bet right now for
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: the Friday matchups, you can only choose one. I know
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: there are a bunch of teams you talked about, So
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: during the offseason I like to do a deep dive.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not quite on the Evan Abrahams level of research,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: but I do like to have my little theories and
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: then go on these little easter egg hunts and see
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: if I can find something and one element that I
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: found since twenty fourteen, when you look at all the
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  Speaker 1: pods and you can see this beautifully on the Wikipedia
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  Speaker 1: page for every single March Madness tournament, you can see
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  Speaker 1: where all the regional spots are located, all the first
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  Speaker 1: and second round spots. So there's eight pods with four
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  Speaker 1: games each in them. So what I do is I
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  Speaker 1: try to find the teams that have the longest travel
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  Speaker 1: because not only are the miles important, but also if
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  Speaker 1: it's thousands of miles away, you're not going to get
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  Speaker 1: many of your fans to come to the games. And
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: then it's an added bonus if there's some kind of
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: time shift that works against you. The body clock theory,
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: all of that is coming together for VS to you
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: against Saint Mary's. Saint Mary's spent the majority of the
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  Speaker 1: season in the top twenty five. They got, you know,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: close to the top ten. And what is their reward
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  Speaker 1: for that? They get to go across country and play
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  Speaker 1: in Albany, New York. Not a great look for them.
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  Speaker 1: When are they playing two pm Eastern so eleven am
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  Speaker 1: body clock tip off for the gals, and they're up
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  Speaker 1: against a high energy VCU defense that turns you over
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  Speaker 1: just about as much as any team in the entire country.
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  Speaker 1: And when you pair that with the fact that Saint
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  Speaker 1: Mary's likes to play real slow, low possession games, every
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  Speaker 1: turnover takes on added value. If it's an up and
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  Speaker 1: down game, back and forth, hey can turn the ball
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  Speaker 1: over fifteen times, that's fine. But when you're playing in
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  Speaker 1: those low scoring games that they want to play and in
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  Speaker 1: in the sixties, if you turn it over fifteen times,
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  Speaker 1: that can be a death knell. And then finally, Aiden mhaney,
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  Speaker 1: who was one of the best freshmen in the entire country,
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  Speaker 1: playing for the Gals. It was a great story. He
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  Speaker 1: turned down some very high major opportunities to go play
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  Speaker 1: for Saint Mary's. He has just been in a bit
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  Speaker 1: of a shooting funk. Four games with ten points or
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  Speaker 1: fewer in his last seven, and that's really why the
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  Speaker 1: Gals have been leaking oil down the stretch. After they
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  Speaker 1: beat Gonzaga in an overtime game, looks like they spent
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  Speaker 1: all their emotional energy up against a VCU team that
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  Speaker 1: has a star of their own, Ace Baldwin at the
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  Speaker 1: guard position. He's a combo guard. He can facilitate, he
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  Speaker 1: can score. I think is gonna win this game out right.
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  Speaker 1: You can still get him plus four and a half
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  Speaker 1: five at seven places in the market. But I'm gonna
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  Speaker 1: go ahead and play him at about plus one seventy
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  Speaker 1: five on the body line VCU, plus four and a
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  Speaker 1: half at Vanduel. As you just said, plus one seventy
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  Speaker 1: five of the money line. I'm not gonna lie caliberies.
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  Speaker 1: That's not one of the teams that you mentioned on
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  Speaker 1: Sunday night in the road to the final score. And
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I unloaded on basically every team that you talked about seriously.
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  Speaker 1: And when I say you I mean the collective you
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  Speaker 1: Stucky Dubundo, Nick Giffen. I unloaded on Drake Creighton Firm
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  Speaker 1: in Utah State. I unloaded down West Virginia, Yukon, Arkansas,
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  Speaker 1: Oral Roberts Kent State. Not once did you mention VCU Well.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: One thing I will say in defense of this good thing,
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  Speaker 1: you jump on that Drake client because I think I
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: could end up closing as a pick against Miami. It's
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  Speaker 1: a twelve five game that's in paper flat. I'm just
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  Speaker 1: trying to say here, we gave you that scorching hot
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  Speaker 1: intel to be able to get in before they rule
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: out in North Shadow Mirror from this game because Drake's
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  Speaker 1: defense is incredible. They're really strong on the glass. All
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  Speaker 1: the things that we said on Sunday night, I'm glad
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: that you got in at the right number, because that's
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: what Stuck is preaching this time of year, get the
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  Speaker 1: best number possible. Yeah. I'm not getting the best number
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  Speaker 1: on anything. By the way, all my numbers are off
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: from what I did on Sunday. I'm just saying, Simon,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: before we jumped on the air, you said you add
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: some late breaking info from professional groups on one of
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: the games that's happening on Friday. I think I'm still
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: recovering from here. In chat say unload multiple times in
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: about a two minute span. That was a bit much. Yeah, Chad,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: this is my time of year. I'm just a true
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: fly on the wall. Like I'm in all these texts
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: group with all these pros, and I know this is
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: in my place to say anything or reach out. So
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: I literally I'll wake up in the morning, I'll just
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: read through conversations that people have all through the night,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: just the degenerates talking shit, throwing ideas, and multiple guys
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: keep popping up with Grand Canyon outright over Gonzaga, which
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: to me is so out of this world even thinking
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: about it, because Gonzaga historically, yes they do choke, but
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: it's not until maybe the second or third week, right,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: they don't choke first weekend. Usually they're pretty good at
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: beating up these bad teams. And then I look, I
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: see you online. There are three seed Grand Canyon is
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: the fourteen. It's plus eight ninety right now on Fandel.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Of course I'm gonna throw some on it. So I
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: would love to hear that from another professional viewpoint. What
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: are these guys seen and what's the other side here,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Why would you say no, Tiken zag on the spread.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: That's the better play than calling for the big upset
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: here of Grand Canyon over Gonzaga in round one. This
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: is a three point variants kind of play. You know,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: the Lopes are gonna fire up probably twenty five thirty
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  Speaker 1: threes in this game. They go ahead and make ten
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: or twelve, it's going to be a game in the
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: under eight time out. So I stand from that perspective.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: But then when you look on the other side of
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: the ball, for Grant Kenyon, they're one hundred and ninety
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: eight and palm defense. They're going to get fed into
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: the wood chipper by this Gonzaga offense. They're by far
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: the number one rated offense. And really I've been calling
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: them the zombie Zags ever since they lost an overtime
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: a game that they dominated for thirty nine minutes against
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Saint Mary's and just fell apart at the end of regulation.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: They lose in ot and the national media was basically like, well,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: they were this cute story this year. You know, they're
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: not going to be in the national conversation to really win,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: to finally get over the hump for Mark Few. Since then,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: they've averaged ninety three points per game in their last nine,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: including two games against Saint Mary's where they thumped them.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: And I think from a human nature standpoint, Mark Few
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: is really pushing the right buttons right now. Because Drew
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Timmy came back for this run, They're not overlooking anything
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: in March Madness. It's been all about getting to this
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: tournament and dominating. And for that reason, I think they
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: actually have great value to make the Sweet sixteen at
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: minus one sixty because beyond this game, they have a
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: chance to go up against a wounded UCLA team that's
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: down the defensive player of the year in the Pac twelve.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: They also set have some injury issues in their front court. Gonzaga,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: I think it's just locked and loaded, and I love
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: their depth. Malakai Smith is a name to keep in
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: minds as this tournament goes on because he comes off
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the bench. Last year, he led Chad knew Good to
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: the MC double A tournament and he was like a
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: twenty and eight kind of scorer. This year, he's coming
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: off the bench, but he's capable of double digits and
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: that's the beauty of what Gonzaga has going on offensively
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Beyond Timmy, it's just a multi headed attack. So there's
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: no way to take the offensive pressure down from Gonzaga.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: They're gonna push, push, push, and I mean, Grant Indian
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: is a good story. But the fact of the matter
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: is they're better home team. They're clear on that playing
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: on their home floor here. So I actually like the
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: fifteen and a half point spread for the Zags. Maybe
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: play it in the first half, see if they come
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: out with their hair on the fire. But I think
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: in terms of the pros, it's just a value proposition.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: I would have to be north at ten to one
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: for me even to get interested in a nightmare scenario
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: where Gonzaga goes out because Mark Fu's gone to the
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen and seven straight tournaments, so that's early exit,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: you know, tag that's attached to them. As you said,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: that's a second weekend conversation, not on the first weekend.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Calabrie's is unloading on your wise guys. Yeah, no, it's
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: making me feel good. I like when I hear a
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: team can get hot from three points, That's what I
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: wanted to hear. I just want to know why are
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: they taking Grant Cannon that makes perfect sense. If they
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: can hit the threes. You know, Gonzai can score they want,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: they can't catch up to all those threes being made.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: That's that's kind of the angle I think they're taking here.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: All right, Michael, you told us about VCU five days
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: after the seatings came out. Who is another one that
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: we should be looking for on Friday? So I'm hot
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: to trot on Creton. This is one that I have
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: not kept close to the best. I'm telling everybody stopping
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: people on the street the hot dog vendor here in
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: New York City because I'm at the lovely New Action
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Network headquarters shooting video so I can the opportunity to
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: walk around talk basketball with anyone to listen to me.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: Craydon's got it all, to be honest, there's a certain
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: championship DNA out there. From a composite resume standpoint, when
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: you look at Kenpom, if you can be top thirty
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: and offensive even defensive efficiency year elite, they're twenty eighth
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: and offense fifteenth in defense. All five starters average over
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: eleven points per game. They got a great big and
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Kalk Brenner, so they're not going to get bullied by
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: any of these opponents. They play great defense and something
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: that I really love that's infuriating and something that can
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: be overlooked pretty easily when you're putting together your picks.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: They don't put opponents to the line. They only give
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: up twelve point four foul shots per game. That's third nationally.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: So you have to truly beat him. There's no cheapies,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: there's no easy points being handed out. You got to
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: beat him in the half court and that's really difficult
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: to do. And then additionally, beyond everything they have offensively,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: they do not turn the ball over. So when you
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: put it between not turning the ball over and not
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: putting teams on the line, it's hard work to knock
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: out the Blue Jays. And they're up against ency state
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: team that has some nice wins this year, but they're
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: all at home. They've done absolutely nothing zip zero, nada
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: on the road or a neutral sites, and I think
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: that's a bad recipe for the wolf Packs. All go
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: ahead and the five and a half. I'd love to
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: get five. I think there's a chance maybe it'll go
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: down to five in the market, but I would probably
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: play it up to seven, where it still has its value.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Now looking at the whole board here, do we have
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: any Cinderellas up pop out to any teams that can
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: make a run. You know, every year we always have
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: these teams. Now everything in the NCAA is so much
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: closer now where we talked about stuck. If there's a
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: bunch of good seniors, you can usually make a run. Right,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: These guys haven't been together for three four years playing
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: against these teams at Yes, they might have the pedigree,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: but they're just not a team like these other teams are.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: There's anyone that stands out to this year that could
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: be a Cinderella or is it kind of flat across
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the board? So I'd love to say Drake, but I
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: don't want to get yelled up by Chat again. So
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Montana State, one of the most
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: experienced teams here in the field. They're up against a
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Case State team and Bobcats have won fourteen and fifteen,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: coming in four upperclassmen, and they're starting lineup a dynamic
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: score in former Washington guard Raquan Battle. The other issue
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: in this case is sometimes it becomes the game inside
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: the game. So kse State loves to get to the rim.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: They want to attack, attack, attack, but Montana State is
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: six nationally in points per possession allowed at the rim,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: so I think that's bad news for KSE State, and
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: pressure wise, I think all of its slides. When you're
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: a fourteen seed, they're quote unquote happy to be there.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: But KASE State has spent a lot of this season
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: in the fight in the mix in the Big Twelve,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: thinking of themselves as a national title contender. Certainly, it
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: contended to win the Big twelve regular season and it
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: didn't come to fruition didn't come together in the Big
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Twelve tournament. And I think if they have some bum
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: luck early in this game and they kind of get
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: stuck in the mud trying to drive and not finding
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: their usual success, I think the bobs are going to
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: absolutely throw a scare in the Wildcats. So I think
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: they're alive as dog here. KSE State is an interesting program.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Another interesting program with national aspirations in my backyard the
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Yukon Huskies, which at one point this year were you know,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: a top two team and then faded and then they
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: were listen the West Hartford cocktail party circuit. We were
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: ever at the Burns. They had the whole neighborhood over
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: talking about Yukon basketball because in the middle of January
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: they got hot last six weeks of the year, potentially
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: one of the best teams in the country. They got
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: to take on rip Pettino and Iona great couple of years.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Rumors he may take a new job. Rippettino coming back
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: at seventy years old. Love that. Where do you stand
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: on Yukon? Right now? Yukon is an elite offensive rebounding
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: team and I love the fact do you bring something
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: special to the table. And in a lot of cases,
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: teams at this point the season will say we're great
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: from three point range, which to me is a double
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: edged sword. It doesn't always travel. Sometimes it's the bay
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: and you can throw you off. Sometimes you just have
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: those nights where you shoot twenty five percent from three?
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Can you recover from that? Offensive rebounding travels everywhere. They
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: have these bouncy athletic you know, six foot six to
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: six foot ten guys. They just come in waves like
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: it gets a line change in hockey, and for the
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: most part they overwhelm teams in that regard. Now I
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: own them is a good offensive rebounding team in their
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: own right. They're twenty sixth in offensive rebounding percentage nationally,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: which is one of the best marks for mid major.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: It begins and ends with Nellie Junior Joseph the averages
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: close to fifteen and ten per game. I own. It
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: also is great in terms of turnover margins. So when
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: you put the offensive rebounding stats in there, and then
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: fourteenth in turnover margin at just about plus four per game,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: that's a lot of extra opportunities. You're not giving opportunities
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: to the opponent. They're also elite at shutting down the
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: three point line for opponents. Their twentieth in opponent shooting efficiency.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: So the gals are real tough defensively, and when I
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: look at Yukon, there's so much to like about them,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: but their offensive engine on the perimeters. Jordan Hawkins, he's
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: seventeen for fifty in his last four games. That concerns
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: a little bit, not necessarily to get out of the
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: first round, but I think it's they're legitimate threat to
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: go to the final four. He has to get it together. Luckily,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: in this spot, Yukon can also turn around and just
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: shut down the three point shot. They only gave up
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: four point nine made threes per game. That's third nationally.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: So Iona, I do not think have the Cinderella formula
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: to be able to bomb away from three. It's going
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: to be Yoman's work on the glass just to probably
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: be minus five in the offensive rebounding battle. What I
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: actually like, there's under one forty three and a half.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to be at rock fight, and
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: I think Ukon's going to be happy to get out
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: of there with a five or six point win. Simon.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know about you, but I like listening to
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Calabrie's talk about college basketball. Might be making up the
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: name of every single player on teams, like he talks
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: about the Lopes, he talks about, you know, Iona's offensive
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: rebounding prowess. Can you name the leading score for every
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: team in the NCAA tournament year the NCAA tournaments. There's
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: a good chance. One of my parlor tricks is I know,
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: you know, obviously every single Division one school nickname which
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: comes into play. You know, if I meet someone's wife
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: at a party, she's like, well I went to Western Illinois.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: Just give them a good go leathernecks, that icebreaker, I
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: know the Leathernecks. A guy from my high school played
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: football for Western Illinois, and we're like the Leathernecks roof
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: positive right there. Just bringing people together school. It doesn't
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: make people excited. You're a freak man this March. Take
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• 22:17
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. Speaking of college basketball powers Indiana University. I
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: went to Indiana. Been super excited about this team. All year,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: up and down, up and down big wins against Purdue.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Looked terrible against Penn State. After jumping out to an
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: early lead, I think they made one three the entire game.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: They got Kent State. In my IU text chain, it
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: was reminded. I was reminded that the last time we
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: played at Kent State in the first round, we were
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: dominated by Antonio Gates before he moved on to the NFL.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: I bet Kent State plus four and a half. It's
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an emotional hedge. Give me your
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: take on this Indiana team. Well, I would say if
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: an upset happens, that means I guess Sincere Carrey is
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: going to be a starting defensive back in the NFL
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: in five years because he's there there you go, showing
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: off right there, ten and one down the stretch for
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: the Golden Flashes. And here's the thing about MAC basketball.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: There's a decent amount of teams that go to the
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: low post and play back to the basket and want
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: to feed the post. So they have experience and they
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: come in as one of the best mid majors defending
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: the post. Why is that importance? Because Trace Jackson Davis
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: is such a dominant post player. So really it becomes
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Jordan rules where it's like, as long as we can
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: let him get just twenty five instead of thirty five.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: I think the Golden Flashes are going to be in
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: good shape there. And there's also at this point in
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: the season, you know, we make light of some of
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: the teams like Grand Canyon in Montana State where they
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: don't have those apples to aticles nonconference comparisons, but not
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: Kent State. They played Houston, they were within five, They
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: held Houston to forty nine points, and they were within
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: seven of Gonzaga, both of those games on the road.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: So I think that illustrates that they don't feel that
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: they're in deep water playing against you know, elite teams,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: nationally ranked teams. Yes, Trace Jackson Davis is probably gonna
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: have a double double in this game, but if he
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: gets in foul trouble early, this could be curtains for EU.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: I think this is a bad raw. I think that
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: they were you know, misseated, probably by one line. I
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: would have preferred them in some of the five twelve games.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: In terms of the overall player on player matchups. This
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: is not a good situation. So I think the emotional
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: hedge was the right move on your part. He a
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: little curball here. What is Arkansas Tech's nickname? Arkansas? They're
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: not division one of anything, as I I thought you
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: were gonna hit me with Arkansas Pine Bluff, Go Gold Through.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: They're called the Boys, Wonder Boys, the great nickname. What
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: a nickname that is? That's one one more? You see
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: Santa Cruz. Anybody got that one chambered? Okay? Good? All right,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: So somebody somebody's awake at the wheel over there, frash
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: out of the favorite. Okay, do you have any other
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: best bets for Friday that pop off the top of
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: your head. Let me just look through my entire sheet here,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: because there's a couple of games that I actually think
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: are very well calibrated by the market. Not surprising. That's
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: what stuck. He was saying. You're just talking about how
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: the margin now just just got big sports betting his gun.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: He just keeps getting smaller and smaller. This value of
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: March Badness and doing the podcasts throughout the basketball season
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: was stuck. We noticed that as well. And it's not
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: just the National Lady televised games. It's also you know,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: Leeds down to the high mid major level, you know
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: that kind of middle tier. I'm gonna go ahead. I
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: think there's one team that is an underdog. I think
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: they should be favored, and it's the ten seven game
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: between USC and Michigan State. Spartans are a two point
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: favorite here. I actually like the Trojans. I mean, they
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: nearly swept UCLA. They're only lost in that series was
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: a two point road loss. They lost the Tennessee and
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: ot They gave Arizona run for their money to end
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: the regular season. But really, beyond the fact that they're
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: always close or they're winning those games against you know,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the best competition on their schedule, their backcourt gives them
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: huge upside. Boogie ellis a lot of people on the
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: East Coast have never seen this guy play. He's a bucket.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: He poured in twenty one plus in seven of their
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: last twelve games. Drew Peterson is also absolutely lethally. He's
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: like six nine, six tenth, so he gets a shot
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: anytime he wants. Last month of the season, he shot
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: forty percent from long range. This backcourt helps them achieve
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: one of the cooler New Age stats in college basketball,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: which is the kill shot. That's a ten o runner better.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: They are one of the top ten teams in the
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: country and kill shot runs. So I see them potentially
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: running away from Michigan State team that Yes, they don't
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: shoot a ton of threes, but when they're not falling,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: their offense can fall apart. You saw that happen against
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. They shot I
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: think like twenty percent from long range. They end up
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: losing by double digits in that game, so that's a problem. Additionally,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: when it comes to stopping Peterson and the perimeter weapons
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: from USA, Michigan State ranks three hundred and twentieth and
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: catch and shoot three point defense, so I see a
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: lot of slashing, kick the ball out three's fallen for USC.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: As they mentioned, I think they should be the favorite song.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: I go ahead and just play them at plus one
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: out of five plus one ten New Jersey Institute of Technology.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: He must be referring to the Highlanders. Man, you are
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: a fucker that is not to be not to be
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: confused with UC Riverside. Also the Highlanders. They have a
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: really cool Scottish bear mascot with the whole Highlander look.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: I'm moving out to California in the spring. I'm excited
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: to get my hands on some UC riverside swag. That
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: was good because not only did you paused for a
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: second where I'm like, I think I got them, and
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: then you just pulled out like fucking suave, really really good.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Give me your final four, assuming that you know, we'll
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: hope that whoever is in your final four doesn't get
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: napped at on Thursday while people are listening to this podcast.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: All right, I'm going to go through region by region.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: So in the South, I have Cradon. In the East,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: I have Marquette. You're gonna like this one. Chad. Out
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: of the West, I have Yukon, and then I have
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: Texas coming out of the Midwest. I love Texas, And
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: I brought this up on Vison about a week ago.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Twenty five years ago, if you lost a head coach midseason,
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: that your whole program would have just fallen apart. There
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: was the game of basketball, there was more involvement from
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: an exs no standpoint, and a little bit of a
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: tighter leash by a head coach. Particularly had a huge
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: program in the top ten. That's just not been the
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: case with Texas. I think they circled the wagons. I
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: think strangely, I think it's made them a closer team.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: They have a great backcourt in Marcus Carr and one
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: of the best names in all college basketball, Sergibari Rice.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: So I love what the Longhorns have, and their front
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: court got better and better. Dylan to Sue in particular,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: you know, took a step forward in the Big Twelve tournament.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: He gives them that final piece. If he plays like
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: that for six games, I think they're gonna win the
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: national championship. And then who do you have winning it?
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: So I've Texas over Creton in a tight one. We'll
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: call it a one possession game, just from a you
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: know style, making fights situation. That's going to be a
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: really good defensive battle, and both teams can heat up
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: from the perimeter. So I think it's going to be
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: a seesaw events. It's a little bit heavily on Big
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: East teams, but I think that's just the way it
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: shook out. I'm not trying to get in my own head.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Those are just the teams that I think have the
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: right path and the right mix of analytics and personnel
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: to get it done for six games or in this case,
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: four games to get to the final four. Do you
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: know what's interesting about this final four? It's the last
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: thing that I think we're going to cover here. Marquette, Creton, Yukon.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: In this new age world of nil, these are not
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: programs that are going to compete at the same level
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: as the Texas, the Dukes, the uncs. We'll be able
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: to compete in college basketball. So I know we're still
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: in the early stages of this, but that's a fascinating
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: idea and it would be real boon for these programs
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: to be able to get to the Final four when
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: it's going to be increasingly competitive for talent. It is interesting,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: although I will say, you know, these mini collectives at
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: the mid major level you can get together. You can
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: keep one guy on campus. Western Kentucky just did it
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: with their quarterback Austin Reid, who looked like he was
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: going to enter the transfer porter and next thing you know,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: he's on Instagram with a brand new car. So it's like,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: to me, these are all victimless crimes, Like they are
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: absolutely funny. And you know, we're not talking about competing
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: with the death star like Alabama or Texas, where they
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: just have an unlimited amount of resources to just pound
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: the competition on the recruiting trail if you want to
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: get together and put you know, three hundred thousand dollars together.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: A lot of these schools are big schools. I think
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: of school like Liberty, and not many people know it's
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: the largest undergrad you know, a population in terms of
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: kids on campus in the entire country. There's a lot
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: of people that graduated from Liberty. You get five ten
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: bucks ahead, all of a sudden, you can start competing.
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a little bit overblown that there's
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: such a gulf between the major power programs and their
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: potential on the NIL front and everybody else. Speaking of
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: power programs before we go Rezbyterian College. Yeah, I mean,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: I wish I could say that I didn't know that
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: it was the blue Hose, but of course, and you really,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: you really had to enunciate when you're around Presbyterian PC grads.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: Make sure to enunciate so you're not calling them blue hose.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: Oh my god. By the way, that's a great doublelon
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: to Andrea. Presbyterian College, Mike Calabrie, out standing. Thanks for
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: coming on the Favorites podcast. Great work during college football,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: great work during college basketball for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: Our producer, I am Chad Millman. This has been the
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: favorite podcast from the volume Podcast Network rate review, Subscribe, subscribe,
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: subscribe directly to the favorites. Please leave us five stars,
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: say whatever you want feedback as a gift. Good luck
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: in your brackets until next time. Love you. Action Network
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• 32:30
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