Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAF Week 1 Best Bets
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
- 0:06Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
- 0:08Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
- 0:10Speaker 1: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
- 0:13Speaker 1: Sunday one and five.
- 0:15Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
- 0:17Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
- 0:19Speaker 2: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing.
- 0:24Speaker 2: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Oh
- 0:27Speaker 2: in four, I have not had a good season.
- 0:32Speaker 1: Man, with bookends the slump that I'm on, and the
- 0:35Speaker 1: slump continues, I've reached into peak.
- 0:39Speaker 2: Actually, I'm going to burn my Brouins hat Man. I
- 0:42Speaker 2: don't know what is going on with the Bruins. Arch eight?
- 0:46Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
- 0:47Speaker 2: It's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man, I
- 0:51Speaker 2: don't know what data is anymore. But I don't even
- 0:53Speaker 2: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
- 0:57Speaker 2: the worst day that I.
- 0:58Speaker 1: Could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
- 1:02Speaker 2: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
- 1:06Speaker 2: yesterday it did not go well for me.
- 1:08Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
- 1:12Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this.
- 1:13Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
- 1:16Speaker 1: Slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
- 1:20Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
- 1:23Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
- 1:25Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
- 1:33Speaker 1: It's towed back with you. This is late ninety generate hours. Man,
- 1:37Speaker 1: this is better off dead. College football Week one I'm
- 1:41Speaker 1: already own one, and week one I'm already owned two,
- 1:44Speaker 1: just to start the.
- 1:46Speaker 2: To start the college football season. So this is great.
- 1:50Speaker 2: Oh my god, Uh, we're gonna get into it.
- 1:53Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out I believe four more plays, three
- 1:55Speaker 1: more plays.
- 1:56Speaker 2: What am I even doing?
- 1:57Speaker 1: Four more plays? Three of them are gonna be sad.
- 2:00Speaker 1: One is a Sunday play, So I'll just give that
- 2:02Speaker 1: on in this show too. Probably will reiterate it on Sunday.
- 2:07Speaker 1: We're coming off eight one and two day the all
- 2:11Speaker 1: baseball players do Milwaukee Toronto under complete bullshit like that
- 2:16Speaker 1: game had zero runs scored into the sixth inning and
- 2:19Speaker 1: it did not go under seven and a half. The
- 2:21Speaker 1: bullpens both got absolutely massacred in the game. I wounded
- 2:25Speaker 1: up being a nine run output in the final three
- 2:27Speaker 1: innings of the game. The first five obviously would have
- 2:30Speaker 1: covered easily. The starting pitching analysis was correct for me
- 2:33Speaker 1: on that looked like it was a shore under and
- 2:36Speaker 1: we lose the fucking under Miami mets Uri Perez. He's
- 2:42Speaker 1: on my shit list. I'm no longer a fan of
- 2:45Speaker 1: Uri Perez. He went from one of my favorite pitchers
- 2:47Speaker 1: to one of my most hated. He can fuck off.
- 2:50Speaker 1: He can pay me money for that abysmal performance that
- 2:55Speaker 1: he basically he gave up more than what the first
- 2:57Speaker 1: five total was in one inning or some shit like.
- 3:01Speaker 1: The score after five in that game was twelve to four.
- 3:05Speaker 2: I believe what the fuck?
- 3:07Speaker 1: I think the final was nineteen to nine. I mean,
- 3:10Speaker 1: at least that one is easier to take because it's
- 3:12Speaker 1: a complete loss. And then we did get the underwright
- 3:15Speaker 1: on the Pirates Red Sox game, good starts from both
- 3:18Speaker 1: Skiens and totally in his major league debut, but Skiens
- 3:22Speaker 1: unfortunately outpitched him by just a little bit, and then
- 3:25Speaker 1: the Red Sox wound up losing four to two and
- 3:28Speaker 1: totally only gave up two of those runs, taking a
- 3:31Speaker 1: totally his pitch count took its totally. It was still
- 3:34Speaker 1: a pretty good major league debut from him, though. Eight
- 3:37Speaker 1: strikeouts and five and a third innings. I think he's
- 3:39Speaker 1: gonna be good. Man, Charles, what's up man? Yeah, late night?
- 3:44Speaker 1: This is ridiculous, Curtis, what's up? Good evening to you? No?
- 3:51Speaker 2: NC State absolutely not. Yeah, that under was ridiculous.
- 3:55Speaker 1: NC State was, like I said, they were winning the
- 3:58Speaker 1: game by seventeen in the third quarter. They were winning
- 4:01Speaker 1: the game seventeen to nothing early, and they were up
- 4:03Speaker 1: twenty four to seven in the third quarter. And then
- 4:05Speaker 1: they never scored again and they didn't cover, and East
- 4:08Speaker 1: Carolina was driving with a chance to tie it as well.
- 4:11Speaker 1: North Carolina, I mean NC State, excuse me, completely took
- 4:14Speaker 1: their foot off the gas. Let's get into Let's get
- 4:20Speaker 1: into the college football slate for this week.
- 4:22Speaker 2: Man.
- 4:23Speaker 1: Normally, what I do here is I usually look at
- 4:25Speaker 1: the top twenty five matchups.
- 4:26Speaker 2: Actually, let me pull this up. Let me see if
- 4:28Speaker 2: I can do this. It's usually the ESPN scores page.
- 4:31Speaker 1: But I have to do things differently a little bit
- 4:33Speaker 1: in week one, because you know, I'm looking at returning production.
- 4:36Speaker 1: The returning production and the experience is gonna factor largely
- 4:40Speaker 1: into my plays, and I'm actually gonna have a play
- 4:42Speaker 1: on all of the biggest games, all of the ranked
- 4:45Speaker 1: versus ranked matchups. I'm gonna give out a play on
- 4:47Speaker 1: every single one of them. Which that's just the way
- 4:50Speaker 1: that it worked out.
- 4:51Speaker 2: Man.
- 4:51Speaker 1: I actually like all three of those games, all sides
- 4:55Speaker 1: on all three, and that's just the way that it is.
- 4:56Speaker 1: Usually I'm not gonna do that, although I think I'm
- 5:00Speaker 1: I kind of have my thinking in tune more for
- 5:02Speaker 1: towards like the big conference games anyway. But yeah, yeah,
- 5:06Speaker 1: North Carolina State needed to cover a minus fourteen.
- 5:09Speaker 2: Man. Let me see, they're one by seven.
- 5:12Speaker 1: So usually I take a look at this, and like
- 5:14Speaker 1: I said, these, I usually go through all the top
- 5:16Speaker 1: twenty five versus top twenty five matchups. I'll go over
- 5:20Speaker 1: some of the big ones if anything is interesting. But I
- 5:22Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a bit of a shorter
- 5:24Speaker 1: video than sometimes I have for college football because a
- 5:26Speaker 1: lot of the big teams are playing cupcakes, and I
- 5:29Speaker 1: think we actually have more big matchups this week than
- 5:32Speaker 1: we usually do. We actually have number one versus number
- 5:34Speaker 1: three Texas Ohio State. That's gonna be one of my plays.
- 5:38Speaker 1: You guys, already know. I have a play on Texas
- 5:40Speaker 1: in that game. We'll talk about the number on that
- 5:43Speaker 1: because the number is gone.
- 5:46Speaker 2: How many of these other games are even big?
- 5:48Speaker 1: Like seriously, I mean Syracuse Tennessee, Tennessee has got to
- 5:52Speaker 1: be a big favorite. Yeah, they're a double digit favor
- 5:54Speaker 1: and I mean I don't really have a whole lot
- 5:55Speaker 1: to say about that game. But Tennessee lost their quarterback.
- 5:59Speaker 1: I am a heard Yamalava. How do you pronounce his name?
- 6:02Speaker 2: I don't know.
- 6:02Speaker 1: He went to UCLA, So that's something to keep in mind.
- 6:05Speaker 1: The Syracuse lost their quarterback as well with the Cord.
- 6:09Speaker 1: I think Syracuse is gonna take is gonna take a
- 6:12Speaker 1: huge step back though without him. I mean he was
- 6:14Speaker 1: basically their whole team. So Tennessee, I mean they're still
- 6:17Speaker 1: an SEC team, the ranked twenty fourth, So that's just
- 6:19Speaker 1: a quick breakdown on that one. I guess Tennessee they're
- 6:23Speaker 1: actually up from twelve and a half to thirteen and
- 6:25Speaker 1: a half, but it looks like they're the public side
- 6:27Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of tickets. I mean, of course, Tennessee,
- 6:29Speaker 1: the SEC team will be the public side only sixty
- 6:32Speaker 1: eight percent of the tickets. On the Remember Tennessee last
- 6:35Speaker 1: year though their defense was better than their offense, Like,
- 6:39Speaker 1: they had a huge offensive output against the bad teams
- 6:42Speaker 1: that they faced early in the season, and then later
- 6:44Speaker 1: in the season their offense just completely fizzled out. So Tennessee,
- 6:49Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna have to try to improve their offense.
- 6:51Speaker 1: I don't really see it happening right away. So this game,
- 6:55Speaker 1: I mean, I agree with the move to the under.
- 6:56Speaker 1: I mean, you got teams that are gonna have to
- 6:58Speaker 1: deal with new quarterbacks. That's probably the better way to
- 7:00Speaker 1: look at that game. It's down from fifty five and
- 7:02Speaker 1: a half to fifty two already on the total though,
- 7:05Speaker 1: so I mean, fifty one is a key number. So
- 7:08Speaker 1: if you did want to take the shot with the
- 7:09Speaker 1: under in that game, it is an anti public play
- 7:12Speaker 1: as well. Sixty five percent of tickets on the over,
- 7:14Speaker 1: fifty four percent of the cash in the under. I
- 7:16Speaker 1: don't usually give out totals like hardly ever, except for
- 7:19Speaker 1: in baseball, but I think it makes sense in that game.
- 7:23Speaker 2: Some of these games are just such trash. It doesn't
- 7:25Speaker 2: even matter if Penn State.
- 7:27Speaker 1: And Georgia are both unbelievably gigantic favorites, and I'm not
- 7:31Speaker 1: even convinced that they won't cover like games like this
- 7:34Speaker 1: Penn State at forty three and a half, Georgia at
- 7:36Speaker 1: thirty eight, And have you got to really gauge like
- 7:39Speaker 1: whether or not those teams are actually gonna just take
- 7:42Speaker 1: their foot off the gas, Like do they.
- 7:44Speaker 2: Have a reason to run up the score?
- 7:46Speaker 1: I would say for Penn State and Georgia, they probably
- 7:48Speaker 1: don't really have a reason to run up the score
- 7:50Speaker 1: because they're already highly ranked. Like it's not gonna matter
- 7:53Speaker 1: as long as they win those games fairly easily, it's
- 7:55Speaker 1: not really gonna matter. Marshall, by the way, lost their
- 7:59Speaker 1: entire team to South Miss, so Southern Miss is basically
- 8:02Speaker 1: Marshall from last year. The coach left and took a
- 8:06Speaker 1: bunch of his players, so Marshall is in a complete rebuild.
- 8:09Speaker 2: So it still wouldn't.
- 8:10Speaker 1: Shock me of Georgia just annihilated them and still wound
- 8:13Speaker 1: up covering even without even trying. Texas Ohio State is
- 8:18Speaker 1: at noon. I don't know about the actually it being
- 8:21Speaker 1: an early start time. I don't know if it really
- 8:25Speaker 1: matters one way or the other necessarily, but I will
- 8:29Speaker 1: talk about that game but I give the breakdown on
- 8:30Speaker 1: it because I've already told you I have a Texas play,
- 8:33Speaker 1: but I haven't talked about it yet. Alabama Florida State.
- 8:37Speaker 1: I don't have a play on this one, but let's
- 8:38Speaker 1: talk about this. I do have a lean on this one.
- 8:40Speaker 2: This is a big game. I mean it's two big programs.
- 8:43Speaker 1: At least, it's Alabama number eight out of the SEC,
- 8:46Speaker 1: of course, Florida State and the ACC. But right away,
- 8:50Speaker 1: everybody knows at this point that the SEC is better
- 8:53Speaker 1: than the ACC. The SEC has much more like physical defenses,
- 8:58Speaker 1: so that gives the ACC albs. Florida State usually.
- 9:02Speaker 2: Is kind of one of those higher tier teams.
- 9:04Speaker 1: Though out of the Out of the ACC, they usually
- 9:07Speaker 1: are pretty good on both sides of the ball. But
- 9:09Speaker 1: we know Florida State just completely fell off last year.
- 9:12Speaker 1: They had a horrific season last year. Should they improve
- 9:15Speaker 1: this year? Yeah, they probably should. I mean, they can't
- 9:17Speaker 1: really be much worse than last year. But are they
- 9:19Speaker 1: gonna be good right out of the gate. I'm gonna
- 9:22Speaker 1: guess probably not. I mean they're in a transition period here.
- 9:25Speaker 1: They have I don't know if they're coaching changed, but
- 9:28Speaker 1: I know they have. Castellanos is coming into their quarterback
- 9:32Speaker 1: and I've talked about him.
- 9:33Speaker 2: He's a complete dick.
- 9:36Speaker 1: He was at BC and then he basically just quit
- 9:38Speaker 1: on the team and stopped playing. And now he's at
- 9:40Speaker 1: Florida State and he's basically talking shit, which is stupid
- 9:44Speaker 1: because he's on the team that's already the worst team.
- 9:47Speaker 1: Alabama's a double digit favor here on the road, and
- 9:50Speaker 1: I think rightly so. Actually, but Castellano's on his new
- 9:54Speaker 1: team already being like, yeah, we're gonna like beat you.
- 9:57Speaker 2: He's already talking shit.
- 9:58Speaker 1: About his former team, about Alabama, about the other teams.
- 10:02Speaker 2: All that does is motivate your opponent.
- 10:04Speaker 1: Man, Alabama is going to be motivated here as well anyway,
- 10:07Speaker 1: because you know, Alabama not only is the shit talk
- 10:10Speaker 1: and gonna motivate them, but Alabama they're a team that's
- 10:14Speaker 1: used to being in play in championship contention every single year.
- 10:18Speaker 2: Man.
- 10:18Speaker 1: And Alabama they didn't even make the playoffs last year,
- 10:21Speaker 1: and I think they should have.
- 10:22Speaker 2: I think they actually got screwed.
- 10:23Speaker 1: I mean, they were pretty obviously better than than SMU
- 10:27Speaker 1: and teams like that. So Alabama, I think they're gonna
- 10:30Speaker 1: come out with fire right away because of that. And
- 10:32Speaker 1: this is also their second season now under Kalen de Boor,
- 10:35Speaker 1: And you know that when a coach is in his
- 10:37Speaker 1: first season, especially when he's replacing Nick Saban, one of
- 10:40Speaker 1: the legends of coaching, that's a those are big shoes
- 10:44Speaker 1: to film man and sometimes there's a transition period there
- 10:48Speaker 1: and it doesn't work out that well right away. That
- 10:49Speaker 1: Alabama wasn't even that bad last year. I mean, like
- 10:52Speaker 1: I said, they had a really difficult schedule and I
- 10:54Speaker 1: actually think they should have made the playoffs. But I
- 10:56Speaker 1: believe they had four losses, which is what kind of
- 10:59Speaker 1: did them in. But they should take a step forward
- 11:02Speaker 1: second year under Debor. They should have more of their
- 11:04Speaker 1: system in place. Alabama does have a new quarterback as well,
- 11:09Speaker 1: but they have like this really highly touted quarterback.
- 11:13Speaker 2: Simpson I believe is his name.
- 11:14Speaker 1: So I don't know if he's going to be that
- 11:16Speaker 1: great right away, but I actually probably prefer him over Castellanos.
- 11:21Speaker 1: Even though Castellanos is the more experienced quarterback, I think
- 11:24Speaker 1: he's the less talented of the two quarterbacks in Alabama.
- 11:27Speaker 1: I mean, they're just I think they're too strong in.
- 11:29Speaker 2: The whole way.
- 11:30Speaker 1: Yeah, fuck UCBS Sports telling me to get rid of
- 11:33Speaker 1: my ad blocker. Alabama, they have fourteen returning starters. They're
- 11:37Speaker 1: returning two wide receivers, They're returning virtually their entire defense,
- 11:41Speaker 1: eight returning starters. On defense, I believe they have about
- 11:45Speaker 1: thirteen returning defensive players. And they have the running back,
- 11:49Speaker 1: multiple wide receivers coming back, and sixty percent of their
- 11:52Speaker 1: offensive line. So Alabama has a ton of returning production. Man,
- 11:56Speaker 1: So that's also better than what we're gonna get out
- 11:58Speaker 1: of Florida State here in the first game. Florida State
- 12:02Speaker 1: only has six attorney starters. They literally have entire new,
- 12:05Speaker 1: entirely new offense besides their tight end. So I think
- 12:09Speaker 1: the continuity that Alabama has is also a big deal.
- 12:12Speaker 1: Even though their quarterback is new, they probably won't put
- 12:16Speaker 1: the burden on him right away anyway, So I do
- 12:18Speaker 1: lean to Alabama in this game. It's just I don't
- 12:22Speaker 1: love laying double digits on the road like this, but
- 12:24Speaker 1: I think the professional money is actually in agreement. Even
- 12:27Speaker 1: though the public is kind of on Alabama to seventy
- 12:29Speaker 1: three percent tickets eighty four percent of the cash on them.
- 12:32Speaker 1: They're up from thirteen to fourteen. Now, you can probably
- 12:35Speaker 1: still get a thirteen and a half if you look.
- 12:37Speaker 1: So if you do like Alabama, laying the thirteen and
- 12:39Speaker 1: a half is the way to go. I would say,
- 12:42Speaker 1: you don't want to lay the key number fourteen, But
- 12:44Speaker 1: I do expect Alabama to win this game by margin.
- 12:48Speaker 2: Here, how much did they pay? What?
- 12:51Speaker 1: Who?
- 12:52Speaker 2: What? Castellanos?
- 12:53Speaker 1: I don't know what he's making in the nil, but
- 12:55Speaker 1: I mean he quit on BC anyway, so he was
- 12:57Speaker 1: gonna leave BC anyway. Alabama, Yeah, I mean they may
- 13:03Speaker 1: still cover a seventeen, but obviously you should get the
- 13:06Speaker 1: best number that you can.
- 13:08Speaker 2: Yeah, fuck the ad block man.
- 13:11Speaker 1: So that is one of the bigger games though, Alabama
- 13:13Speaker 1: and Florida State. I'm actually gonna talk about South Dakota
- 13:17Speaker 1: Iowa State. I mean, this is a crazy under the
- 13:20Speaker 1: radar game, and I actually think this might be the
- 13:22Speaker 1: best situational play of the entire week. So I am
- 13:24Speaker 1: going to give out a play there. I mean, Oregon
- 13:29Speaker 1: is playing Montana State.
- 13:30Speaker 2: ESPN.
- 13:30Speaker 1: Bett doesn't even have a line on that. Oregon is
- 13:34Speaker 1: replacing their quarterback as well, of course, because they had
- 13:38Speaker 1: Dyan Gabriel I believe, right, and he's in the NFL. Now,
- 13:42Speaker 1: Montana State is actually a really good FCS team, though
- 13:44Speaker 1: they're in the FCS with one of the best FCS teams.
- 13:47Speaker 2: So I don't know what the line is in that game.
- 13:49Speaker 2: I'm sure it's huge.
- 13:50Speaker 1: Still, there isn't even a line out on it yet,
- 13:54Speaker 1: but it's probably gonna be. I would guess, like in
- 13:55Speaker 1: the thirties, what else do we.
- 13:58Speaker 2: Have for games?
- 13:59Speaker 1: I mean, again, one is a lot easier to talk about, actually,
- 14:02Speaker 1: because a lot of these games are just bullshit pretty much.
- 14:05Speaker 1: I mean, Kansas State, you could argue they're in a
- 14:07Speaker 1: bad spot because they're coming back from Dublin, but they're
- 14:10Speaker 1: playing a cupcake in North Dakota here. They do have
- 14:14Speaker 1: Army up next, which isn't exactly a huge game either,
- 14:17Speaker 1: So Kansas State, I mean, they do have a game
- 14:19Speaker 1: out of their belt. But like I said, sometimes that's
- 14:21Speaker 1: a good thing. Sometimes it's not like sometimes the team
- 14:24Speaker 1: that's already played a game, they get some momentum going.
- 14:27Speaker 1: But I think it matters less in week one because
- 14:29Speaker 1: in Week one, the team that hasn't played yet, they
- 14:32Speaker 1: spent all their offseason basically preparing for their first game.
- 14:37Speaker 1: So yeah, Kansas State, I mean, I wouldn't lay the
- 14:40Speaker 1: points to Kansas State in this game though against North
- 14:42Speaker 1: Dakota all I don't even know how good in North
- 14:43Speaker 1: Dakota is in the SCS because I don't really pay attention.
- 14:47Speaker 1: Texas A and M is not that heavy A favorite
- 14:49Speaker 1: twenty three and a half against UTSA, which is kind
- 14:52Speaker 1: of an interesting one.
- 14:54Speaker 2: Texas A and M is public.
- 14:55Speaker 1: Obviously, they're up from twenty one to twenty three and
- 14:57Speaker 1: a half eighty percent of tickets only se teventy seven
- 15:00Speaker 1: percent of the cash. I would probably lean on, honestly,
- 15:04Speaker 1: I think I would lean to taking the points in
- 15:06Speaker 1: that game. UTSA, they're a little brother in the state
- 15:09Speaker 1: of Texas, so they teams usually will get up when
- 15:12Speaker 1: they're one of the little guys in that same state.
- 15:14Speaker 2: They'll get up for a game like this.
- 15:15Speaker 1: They basically like treat it like their super Bowl, you know,
- 15:18Speaker 1: like UTSA, this is their biggest game in the entire schedule,
- 15:21Speaker 1: so you know they're going to be motivated for it
- 15:23Speaker 1: and they're gonna show up. So I would actually lean
- 15:26Speaker 1: that way. UTSA has actually been a pretty decent program recently.
- 15:30Speaker 1: I don't know what they have for returning starters. But
- 15:32Speaker 1: let me say thirty first and returning productions. That's actually
- 15:36Speaker 1: pretty good. Although Texas A and M is sixth, So
- 15:38Speaker 1: Texas A and M should be really good this year.
- 15:40Speaker 1: They're returning a lot of their production as well, which
- 15:43Speaker 1: I mentioned on my college football preview show.
- 15:46Speaker 2: Yeah, Texas A and.
- 15:47Speaker 1: M is returning fifteen starters, including their quarterback, most of
- 15:51Speaker 1: their defense, their entire offensive line. Although they get new
- 15:54Speaker 1: wide receivers coming in, but read their quarterback is coming back.
- 15:58Speaker 1: So I mean that's I still probably lean to t
- 16:03Speaker 1: UTSA just because I think it's a little brother situation
- 16:05Speaker 1: where they might get up for in an A and M.
- 16:08Speaker 2: Maybe they'll be looking ahead.
- 16:09Speaker 1: I don't know what they have next, though they do
- 16:11Speaker 1: have Utah State and then Notre Dame.
- 16:13Speaker 2: Notre Dame is gonna be a big game for them.
- 16:15Speaker 1: They played last year as well, and that's the Mike
- 16:17Speaker 1: Elko Bowl. Basically, I believe because he was I believe
- 16:21Speaker 1: he was. No, it's not Mike elkom Mike Elcho is
- 16:23Speaker 1: with Duke. What am I saying? I was thinking he
- 16:25Speaker 1: was with Notre Dame?
- 16:28Speaker 2: Wait?
- 16:28Speaker 1: Am I right about that? I don't even know? Maybe
- 16:30Speaker 1: I don't know what I'm thinking at this point. But
- 16:31Speaker 1: Texas A and m Notre Dame will be a big game, nonetheless,
- 16:34Speaker 1: but that's in two weeks, not next week. LSU Clemson
- 16:40Speaker 1: huge game. I'm gonna give out a play on that. Michigan.
- 16:44Speaker 1: I mean, I think Michigan, like I said, they should
- 16:46Speaker 1: improve as well, though I think they're Michigan might have
- 16:48Speaker 1: a new quarterback there as well.
- 16:50Speaker 2: Is that right? Let me see they have.
- 16:53Speaker 1: They're twenty ninth their returning production, though I gotta I mean,
- 16:57Speaker 1: there's just so much to talking about. No, they still
- 16:59Speaker 1: have Davis Warren as their quarterback, because I know they
- 17:01Speaker 1: don't have Alex Orgy anymore, who they had in the
- 17:05Speaker 1: mix a.
- 17:05Speaker 2: Quarterback last year. We take some coffee here, taking a
- 17:10Speaker 2: dose to the caffeine. Orgy ridiculous name. He is gone
- 17:15Speaker 2: and he is on. Where's he? I think he's at UNL.
- 17:19Speaker 2: Is he at UNLV? Now?
- 17:20Speaker 1: I don't know where he went, but I know he's
- 17:21Speaker 1: not a Michigan anymore. He is a dual threat quarterback.
- 17:23Speaker 1: He didn't really work out for Michigan. But Michigan does
- 17:26Speaker 1: have Davis Warren returning for them, so they have decent
- 17:29Speaker 1: returning production, Michigan thirteen returning starters. New Mexico is bringing
- 17:34Speaker 1: in like an all new system. I think in New Coach,
- 17:37Speaker 1: I think New Mexico is gonna be going through a
- 17:39Speaker 1: lot of growing pains.
- 17:40Speaker 2: Michigan a huge favorite there.
- 17:41Speaker 1: I mean, there's not a whole lot to talk about
- 17:43Speaker 1: in a lot of these games, to be honest, I'm
- 17:44Speaker 1: gonna kind of skip these and run.
- 17:46Speaker 2: Through them pretty quickly. Skip it, that's actually it.
- 17:50Speaker 1: And then we do have the two big Sunday games
- 17:52Speaker 1: as well, which I'm gonna give out a play on
- 17:54Speaker 1: one of them, and maybe I'll talk about the other game.
- 17:57Speaker 1: I have a play in the Notre Dame in Miami game,
- 17:59Speaker 1: and maybe I'll talk about Rginia Tech South Carolina on
- 18:01Speaker 1: Sunday when we get to it, unless, I mean, do
- 18:04Speaker 1: you think I should talk about it now? I guess
- 18:06Speaker 1: maybe I could.
- 18:07Speaker 2: Whatever.
- 18:07Speaker 1: Uh So, Virginia Tech South Carolina. That's gonna be on Sunday.
- 18:10Speaker 1: That's an ESPN game. Two big games on Sunday, one
- 18:15Speaker 1: after the other.
- 18:15Speaker 2: Pretty much. The Notre Dame in Miami game on ABC.
- 18:18Speaker 1: South Carolina is a seven and a half point favored
- 18:20Speaker 1: against Virginia Tech. This is a neutral site game in
- 18:23Speaker 1: Atlanta at the Atlanta Falcons Stadium Mercedes Benz Stadium, so
- 18:28Speaker 1: it's pretty neutral. I mean, both of these teams have
- 18:30Speaker 1: to travel to get there. It is closer to South
- 18:32Speaker 1: Carolina if you want to consider South Carolina to have
- 18:36Speaker 1: any sort of advantage there. But I like Virginia Tech,
- 18:39Speaker 1: and this one in the line is moving that way.
- 18:41Speaker 1: It's not a play for me, but South Carolina down
- 18:43Speaker 1: for minus nine and a half to minus seven, seventy
- 18:46Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets and only fifty percent of the
- 18:49Speaker 1: cash on South Carolina. It looks like even though the
- 18:51Speaker 1: total shot up from forty five and a half to
- 18:53Speaker 1: fifty one and a half, we got sixty seven percent
- 18:55Speaker 1: of tickets on the over and sixty percent of the
- 18:57Speaker 1: cash on the under, so the money has actually come
- 19:00Speaker 1: back on the under. I think maybe it was a
- 19:02Speaker 1: setup where some of the professional guys saw the line
- 19:05Speaker 1: movie towards the over and we're like, we know this
- 19:07Speaker 1: is gonna like maybe get up higher because it's gonna
- 19:10Speaker 1: be one of those nationally televised isolated games. Public always
- 19:14Speaker 1: likes to go over in those games, so let's try
- 19:16Speaker 1: to get it up to that key fifty one fifty
- 19:18Speaker 1: one and a half and tried it then pounded on
- 19:20Speaker 1: the under. I think maybe that's what they're doing there.
- 19:22Speaker 1: I think it under makes sense because I actually think
- 19:25Speaker 1: both offensive lines don't have a lot returning. If I'm
- 19:27Speaker 1: not mistaken, I know both quarterbacks are back of Virginia
- 19:32Speaker 1: Virgina Virginia Tech. Yeah, so their entire offensive line is new.
- 19:37Speaker 1: They're returning their quarterback drones, but they're not really returning
- 19:40Speaker 1: too many other guys there in South Carolina, and we
- 19:42Speaker 1: know they're returning Leonora Sellers, who who's considered to be
- 19:46Speaker 1: a really good quarterback, and he is.
- 19:48Speaker 2: He was a good quarterback last year.
- 19:49Speaker 1: But they're returning only two of their offensive linemen and
- 19:54Speaker 1: no running backs either. So South Carolina not a ton
- 19:57Speaker 1: of returning production for them either. But I actually lean
- 20:01Speaker 1: to Virginia Tech in that one. I think the public
- 20:03Speaker 1: is just on South Carolina.
- 20:05Speaker 2: Man.
- 20:05Speaker 1: I would try to get the plus seven and a half.
- 20:07Speaker 1: There's not a huge difference between nine and a half
- 20:09Speaker 1: and seven and a half. The eights are kind of
- 20:11Speaker 1: like dead numbers in football. I do agree with the
- 20:14Speaker 1: under in that game as well, again because I think
- 20:16Speaker 1: the offensive lines might struggle a little bit early on.
- 20:19Speaker 1: South Carolina is a good defense as well of Virginia Tech.
- 20:22Speaker 1: Not really, but I think Virginia Tech might get up
- 20:25Speaker 1: for this game. The one issue that I might have
- 20:27Speaker 1: with it is that South Carolina's coach is Shane Beemer,
- 20:30Speaker 1: who is the son of Frank Beemer, who is the
- 20:33Speaker 1: legendary Virginia Tech coach. So Shane Biemer, I think does
- 20:37Speaker 1: kind of have a thing where he will probably get
- 20:40Speaker 1: up for a game against Virginia Tech, try to get
- 20:42Speaker 1: his players up for it.
- 20:43Speaker 2: But I think South.
- 20:44Speaker 1: Carolina is just a little bit overrated coming into this season. Man,
- 20:47Speaker 1: they were good last year, Yes, Sellers, I do.
- 20:49Speaker 2: Think he is pretty good. They were good defensively last year.
- 20:53Speaker 1: They're an SEC team, though in a lot sometimes we'll
- 20:55Speaker 1: see the SEC team getting too much hype early on.
- 20:58Speaker 2: Virginia Tech's just being overlooked.
- 21:00Speaker 1: I think, Man Drones, I know he didn't have a
- 21:03Speaker 1: good season last year, but I think he's better than
- 21:06Speaker 1: what he looked like. Virginia Tech did at least get
- 21:08Speaker 1: screwed in one of their games last year, the Miami one.
- 21:11Speaker 1: If you remember how that game ended, Virginia Tech had
- 21:14Speaker 1: what I am certain was a touchdown on the last
- 21:16Speaker 1: play of that game. When I hail Mary and it
- 21:18Speaker 1: was rule to touch down, they would have won the
- 21:20Speaker 1: game against Miami.
- 21:21Speaker 2: And then it took about.
- 21:22Speaker 1: Three minutes to overturn it, which was not even the
- 21:25Speaker 1: correct call.
- 21:26Speaker 2: That was absolutely insane.
- 21:27Speaker 1: I think Miami was just paying off the refs man,
- 21:30Speaker 1: which hopefully will help out our play in the Miami game,
- 21:32Speaker 1: which I'm gonna talk about. But yeah, I mean, I
- 21:35Speaker 1: lead the Virginia Tech A lot of it is kind
- 21:37Speaker 1: of a market read though more than anything else. But
- 21:40Speaker 1: the games that I'm actually gonna give out are all
- 21:43Speaker 1: I think situational play. So let's get into it, man,
- 21:46Speaker 1: I am going to give out Texas. I gave out
- 21:48Speaker 1: Texas plus three if you follow my show, I did
- 21:50Speaker 1: give it out back when it was actually at plus three.
- 21:53Speaker 1: I know it is not plus three anymore. I forgot
- 21:55Speaker 1: this game was still on, man, and it's actually close
- 21:58Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter Central Michigan sand was State. Can
- 22:00Speaker 1: I put it on San Jose State Football? I have
- 22:04Speaker 1: no idea if it's actually on any of the channels here.
- 22:06Speaker 1: It is it's on FS one all right? Anyway, Texas, Yes,
- 22:14Speaker 1: I gave out Texas.
- 22:15Speaker 2: This is the big game.
- 22:16Speaker 1: This is one of the biggest games of the year, man,
- 22:18Speaker 1: and it's in Week one between number one Texas and
- 22:21Speaker 1: number three Ohio State. But to me, I think the
- 22:23Speaker 1: money did come in Ohio State. I understand it's already
- 22:25Speaker 1: down from three to one one and a half. I
- 22:28Speaker 1: think you could still get Texas at one and a half,
- 22:30Speaker 1: or you can maybe take a shot with Texas on
- 22:33Speaker 1: the money line as an underdog. I still think it's
- 22:35Speaker 1: the right side. But it looks like Texas is public,
- 22:38Speaker 1: but the professional money is also agreeing with the public,
- 22:41Speaker 1: so I think all of it is on Texas. So yes,
- 22:43Speaker 1: that does mean the books probably want Ohio State to
- 22:46Speaker 1: get this win.
- 22:47Speaker 2: But I like Texas.
- 22:49Speaker 1: Seventy two percent of tickets eighty one percent of the
- 22:51Speaker 1: cash coming in on Texas. Total also dropped from fifty
- 22:54Speaker 1: and after forty seven, so if you're taking points, the
- 22:57Speaker 1: points are worth a little bit more of the low
- 22:59Speaker 1: total like this, and I do agree with the under
- 23:01Speaker 1: By the way, in this game, fifty tickets fifty nine
- 23:04Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under you are gonna
- 23:06Speaker 1: have two inexperienced quarterbacks in this game, so I think
- 23:09Speaker 1: that lends itself to an under and it's a big
- 23:12Speaker 1: playoff type of game, and I think defenses tend to
- 23:15Speaker 1: be better early on, uh than offenses. Our offenses take
- 23:18Speaker 1: a little longer to get into rhythm, which we're seeing already.
- 23:21Speaker 2: A lot of these early college football games have gone.
- 23:24Speaker 1: Under, right, even most of the games that have gone
- 23:26Speaker 1: over have been like barely going over, so a lot
- 23:30Speaker 1: of games are low scoring early on. I know it's
- 23:32Speaker 1: a low total at forty seven, but I think I
- 23:35Speaker 1: still do lean to the under, but I prefer taking
- 23:38Speaker 1: Texas plus the points. And again, I mean three was
- 23:40Speaker 1: obviously the number that you had to do it at
- 23:42Speaker 1: if you really wanted it, but I mean you could
- 23:44Speaker 1: still maybe do it in any underdog price, Like I said,
- 23:47Speaker 1: plus one and a half plus one money line underdog.
- 23:51Speaker 1: I still think Texas does win this game.
- 23:53Speaker 2: I guess.
- 23:54Speaker 1: I do think it'll be an under. I do think
- 23:55Speaker 1: the teams will be feeling each other out early on.
- 23:57Speaker 1: I think it'll be a defensive game, a playoff atmosphere.
- 24:00Speaker 1: But even though yes, it's gonna be a really crazy
- 24:02Speaker 1: atmosphere in Ohio State, and I'm rarely gonna fade a
- 24:05Speaker 1: team in their home opener. Man, I'm rarely gonna do that,
- 24:08Speaker 1: but I think there are certain situations where it makes sense,
- 24:11Speaker 1: and I think this is one of them. First of all,
- 24:13Speaker 1: this is major, major revenge for Texas. If you remember,
- 24:16Speaker 1: Texas lost to Ohio State in what I believe was
- 24:20Speaker 1: what the semi finals last year of the playoffs, right,
- 24:22Speaker 1: and if you remember, I had Texas plus six and
- 24:25Speaker 1: a half in that game on my show.
- 24:27Speaker 2: I thought the line was way too big on Ohio State.
- 24:29Speaker 1: I thought the public was just overlooking Texas completely. Ohio
- 24:33Speaker 1: State was coming off annihilating Oregon, and I gave out
- 24:36Speaker 1: Ohio State in that game. By the way, if you
- 24:38Speaker 1: remember my watching my show early this year, I gave
- 24:40Speaker 1: out Ohio State in the Rose Bowl against Oregon. That
- 24:44Speaker 1: was an anti public play and they absolutely slaughtered Oregon.
- 24:47Speaker 1: But then after that, I thought Texas was the undervalue
- 24:49Speaker 1: team after I believe they had almost lost to Arizona
- 24:52Speaker 1: State in a game that they should have won way
- 24:54Speaker 1: more easily. Texas had a chance, man against Ohio State,
- 24:58Speaker 1: even though they lost by fourteen. If you remember what
- 25:00Speaker 1: happened in that game, they should have covered at the
- 25:03Speaker 1: very least because Texas was knocking on the door about
- 25:05Speaker 1: to tie that game twenty one apiece in the fourth quarter.
- 25:09Speaker 1: They were right near the goal line and they had
- 25:12Speaker 1: a stupid play call. I'm not a fan of Sarkisian, man,
- 25:15Speaker 1: I understand, yes, we are going with the worst coach here.
- 25:18Speaker 2: Sarkesian for Texas.
- 25:20Speaker 1: Ryan Dave for Ohio State is the better coach. But
- 25:22Speaker 1: Texas they made just a huge blunder in that game,
- 25:25Speaker 1: and they had a fumble six. So it went from
- 25:27Speaker 1: Texas potentially tying the game at twenty one to all
- 25:30Speaker 1: of a sudden, they were down twenty eight to fourteen
- 25:32Speaker 1: and that was the game. I was livid about that
- 25:35Speaker 1: because I had Texas plus the.
- 25:37Speaker 2: Points in that game. That was unbelievable.
- 25:39Speaker 1: But I think that game was closer than it looked.
- 25:41Speaker 1: And now you know, if you're playing the team that
- 25:44Speaker 1: eliminated you last year, and you know that puts a
- 25:46Speaker 1: huge chip on your shoulder.
- 25:48Speaker 2: Man.
- 25:48Speaker 1: So Texas, you know they have this game circled even
- 25:50Speaker 1: though yes, this is a big game for Ohio State,
- 25:53Speaker 1: but Ohio State is also kind of in a letdown
- 25:55Speaker 1: spot in a way.
- 25:56Speaker 2: Man, They're coming off winning the championship. We know that.
- 26:00Speaker 2: Now Ohio State's coming off of that.
- 26:01Speaker 1: In Ohio State, they're gonna have growing pains more so
- 26:03Speaker 1: than Texas is early on man which is the other
- 26:06Speaker 1: reason why I like this Texas. Yes, their quarterback is
- 26:09Speaker 1: somewhat inexperienced. It is Arch Manning, and maybe he's too overhyped.
- 26:13Speaker 1: Maybe Texas is not actually the best team in college football.
- 26:17Speaker 1: Texas did on one of the best defenses in college
- 26:19Speaker 1: football last year, and they still will. They returned six
- 26:23Speaker 1: of their defensive start or some more than half of
- 26:25Speaker 1: their defenses coming back. Yes, their offense is looking like
- 26:29Speaker 1: they don't have a lot of returning production here. But
- 26:32Speaker 1: Arch Manning has been in their system man, So that's
- 26:34Speaker 1: the thing. Arch Manning, he's been with the team for
- 26:37Speaker 1: multiple years. I think at this point. He played a
- 26:39Speaker 1: bit last year, so even though he's inexperience, he's played
- 26:42Speaker 1: a little bit and he knows the system. They were
- 26:45Speaker 1: actually switching him in and out with quinn Ewers too,
- 26:48Speaker 1: So you get him arch Manning, a guy that's been
- 26:50Speaker 1: in the system, he knows the system, he's played before.
- 26:53Speaker 1: Up against Ohio State, their quarterback is a true freshman quarterback.
- 26:57Speaker 1: So I think they're going to be more growing pains
- 27:00Speaker 1: on the side of Ohio State. Man, a guy that's
- 27:02Speaker 1: like he's making not only his first college football start,
- 27:06Speaker 1: but he's doing it in this pressure environment at the shoe,
- 27:09Speaker 1: in front of his home crowd against Texas. That is
- 27:12Speaker 1: a difficult spot to me in Man, you're throwing your freshman,
- 27:15Speaker 1: your true freshman, into the fire man. So I actually
- 27:18Speaker 1: think Texas should do better for that reason. And Ohio
- 27:21Speaker 1: State also replaced both their offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator,
- 27:26Speaker 1: and I think they're both downgrades. Their offensive coordinator, I
- 27:29Speaker 1: forget who it is now, but they lost Chip Kelly,
- 27:32Speaker 1: who was an offensive master mind. Remember he had some
- 27:35Speaker 1: really good offensive teams he was he was a head
- 27:37Speaker 1: coach as well, but he's better as an offensive coordinator.
- 27:40Speaker 1: He's gone, So I think Ohio State may take a
- 27:43Speaker 1: little bit of a step down offensively. Of course they
- 27:46Speaker 1: may anyway, because Will Howard is gone, and he was
- 27:48Speaker 1: really good last year their quarterback. He is now on
- 27:50Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers. But Chip Kelly being gone is a
- 27:54Speaker 1: big deal. But also they lost their defensive coordinator, and
- 27:57Speaker 1: I forget who their defensive coordinator was, but they're a
- 28:00Speaker 1: new one is Matt Patricia.
- 28:02Speaker 2: I'm not a fan. Man. He's been in the NFL
- 28:05Speaker 2: as a coach, he's been like.
- 28:06Speaker 1: I think he was with the Patriots for a bit,
- 28:09Speaker 1: and he's just kind of an idiot to me, honest man,
- 28:11Speaker 1: Matt Patricia, He's not really had success anywhere that he's gone.
- 28:14Speaker 1: I think he might have been. Was he with Tennessee
- 28:17Speaker 1: like under Vayble for a bit, I don't remember. I
- 28:19Speaker 1: know he was on the Patriots staff, But he's just
- 28:22Speaker 1: he's not good man. So I think this is a
- 28:24Speaker 1: downgrade for both coordinators for Ohio State as well. So
- 28:28Speaker 1: all that being said, I do like Texas in this game.
- 28:31Speaker 1: I do think Texas does get.
- 28:32Speaker 2: The win here. So do with that information what you will.
- 28:35Speaker 1: Obviously, the better number is gone, but if you follow
- 28:38Speaker 1: my show, hopefully you were actually able to get the
- 28:40Speaker 1: plus three earlier, which it was up to maybe about
- 28:44Speaker 1: a week ago.
- 28:45Speaker 2: I think the plus three was still out there, but
- 28:46Speaker 2: I probably.
- 28:49Speaker 1: I mean, I don't hate still taking Texas man like
- 28:51Speaker 1: plus one one and a half plus money on the
- 28:54Speaker 1: money line underdog. But that's the way that I that's
- 28:57Speaker 1: the way that I like it. A call came in
- 28:59Speaker 1: from fan duel. Well, no, because the oddsmakers wanted Miami
- 29:04Speaker 1: to lose that game to Miami was a massively public
- 29:07Speaker 1: favorite in that game. The oddsmakers wanted Miami to lose
- 29:11Speaker 1: to crush like some moneyline parlays there.
- 29:13Speaker 2: Although Miami didn't cover, so that was one thing.
- 29:17Speaker 1: I guess the oddsmakers got what they wanted as far
- 29:20Speaker 1: as Virginia Tech covering, but they were gonna cover whether
- 29:22Speaker 1: or not they scored that touchdown. But I think the
- 29:25Speaker 1: oddsmakers would have preferred the Virginia Tech money line hit.
- 29:28Speaker 2: Like.
- 29:28Speaker 1: I don't think that was a big public play there,
- 29:32Speaker 1: unless you think it had to do with the total.
- 29:34Speaker 1: I don't think it had to do with the total either.
- 29:35Speaker 1: I think that game was like in the forties on
- 29:38Speaker 1: both sides. I think that game was way over the total,
- 29:41Speaker 1: So I don't think it had anything to do with
- 29:42Speaker 1: the total either. All right, next up, we got what
- 29:48Speaker 1: are the other games we're.
- 29:49Speaker 2: Gonna talk about here?
- 29:50Speaker 1: Let's go to This is the weirdest one Man South
- 29:54Speaker 1: Dakota plus sixteen. If you can find a book that
- 29:57Speaker 1: has this number, it may not be out yet at all.
- 29:59Speaker 2: The I think it is out at ESPN.
- 30:01Speaker 1: Bet already, but I think it will be out at
- 30:04Speaker 1: more books by like the morning because celt Dakota is
- 30:07Speaker 1: an FCS team. But if you can find this number,
- 30:09Speaker 1: I think this is a great situation to play celt
- 30:11Speaker 1: Dakota State. I don't think we have any or celt
- 30:14Speaker 1: Dakota excusually not celt Dakota State. Celt Dakota against Iowa State.
- 30:18Speaker 1: We don't see any market movement on this. I'm rarely
- 30:21Speaker 1: gonna be on an FCS team like this. But the
- 30:23Speaker 1: number being sixteen like that automatically, like immediately, that seems
- 30:28Speaker 1: really really low, right, Like, how is Iowa State a
- 30:31Speaker 1: team that you know, won the Pop Tar Bowl last year,
- 30:33Speaker 1: a team that just won on a national TV audience
- 30:37Speaker 1: in front of a national TV audience against Kansas State,
- 30:39Speaker 1: you know, a ranked matchup in Dublin. How could Iowa
- 30:43Speaker 1: State only be a sixteen point favorite at home?
- 30:46Speaker 2: And yes, I know it's a home opener.
- 30:47Speaker 1: For Iowa State, but we don't need celt Dakota to
- 30:51Speaker 1: actually win the game. We only need them to cover
- 30:52Speaker 1: a big number here Iowa State, like I said, I
- 30:55Speaker 1: still don't think their offense is that good. I think
- 30:58Speaker 1: that win was misleading by the way. I mean not
- 31:01Speaker 1: just because I had Kansas State in the game and
- 31:03Speaker 1: I gave it out on the show, but Iowa State
- 31:06Speaker 1: they got out gained massively in that game by Kansas State. Man.
- 31:09Speaker 1: Kansas State had the better numbers like across the board. Offensively,
- 31:13Speaker 1: they out stat of them in every category, and I
- 31:15Speaker 1: think they had about three more yards per play than.
- 31:18Speaker 2: I always say. Iowa State's offense was.
- 31:20Speaker 1: Very bad in that game. Their quarterback Becked was below
- 31:25Speaker 1: fifty percent completions. I think they really did not do
- 31:28Speaker 1: a whole lot offensively at all. Becked, I mean he's
- 31:30Speaker 1: going through some growing pains again because he has new
- 31:32Speaker 1: wide receivers there. But yes, they do have a game
- 31:34Speaker 1: under their belt now. But I still don't think Iowa
- 31:37Speaker 1: State is that good of an offense either.
- 31:38Speaker 2: I think they're.
- 31:39Speaker 1: Actually more of like a slow defensive team, and I
- 31:43Speaker 1: think that might help us here taking a lot of
- 31:45Speaker 1: points like this against an offense that isn't really that potent.
- 31:49Speaker 1: Let me see what ESPN has for Let me see
- 31:52Speaker 1: if they have the number here on the Iowa State game.
- 31:54Speaker 1: Actually do they have it here? Hold on Iowa State, No, UWIA.
- 32:00Speaker 1: They have the total really low at forty six and
- 32:02Speaker 1: a half, very low total in this game.
- 32:04Speaker 2: So again that also makes me like taking the points here.
- 32:07Speaker 1: Whenever you have a very very low total like that,
- 32:10Speaker 1: it also means the points are worth way more. I mean,
- 32:12Speaker 1: that is a seriously low total and you're getting a
- 32:15Speaker 1: big spread there. South Dakota, Yes, they're an FCS team.
- 32:19Speaker 1: I don't know a whole lot about FCS when I
- 32:20Speaker 1: know they're like one of the top five or four
- 32:22Speaker 1: teams in FCS, so they're actually a really good FCS team.
- 32:26Speaker 2: They're probably about as good as maybe I would say,
- 32:29Speaker 2: maybe about.
- 32:30Speaker 1: Like the sixtieth or so best FBS team is probably
- 32:34Speaker 1: in line with what South Dakota is.
- 32:36Speaker 2: Iowa State, Yes, they're.
- 32:37Speaker 1: Ranked to twenty two, but remember they're coming off a
- 32:39Speaker 1: big win over Kansas State. Not only was it misleading,
- 32:42Speaker 1: so I think Iowa State's not as good as they looked,
- 32:44Speaker 1: but that's a big win. It was a ranked game,
- 32:47Speaker 1: ranked matchup two ranked teams. It was a conference game
- 32:51Speaker 1: between two Big twelve teams. That was another reason why
- 32:53Speaker 1: I was a huge game for Iowa State. It was
- 32:56Speaker 1: national TV, it was in Dublin.
- 32:59Speaker 2: Huge game.
- 33:00Speaker 1: They're having to travel from Dublin back to Ames, Iowa
- 33:03Speaker 1: for this, so they're having to travel back home, which
- 33:06Speaker 1: to me, it seems like that's not a good spot. Well,
- 33:08Speaker 1: celt Dakota, they haven't played yet, right, so they're just
- 33:10Speaker 1: sitting around. This is their first game of the season.
- 33:13Speaker 1: You know, a team like celt Dakota, they got this circle. Man,
- 33:16Speaker 1: this is their only game all season against an FBS team,
- 33:19Speaker 1: So you know, South Dakota they've been preparing for.
- 33:22Speaker 2: This all off season.
- 33:23Speaker 1: Man, whereas Iowa State, they're likely not preparing for this game.
- 33:26Speaker 1: Iowa State, you know, they spent all off season preparing
- 33:29Speaker 1: for Kansas State.
- 33:31Speaker 2: That was the big game for them.
- 33:32Speaker 1: Even though this is technically their home opener, it's not
- 33:35Speaker 1: even an FBS team that they're playing, so it's not
- 33:38Speaker 1: an official like home opener really yet.
- 33:41Speaker 2: So I think again.
- 33:42Speaker 1: Celt Dakota has a lot of preparation for this oras
- 33:44Speaker 1: Iowa State, I think is not going to be that
- 33:46Speaker 1: focused on this. And to make matters worse for Iowa State,
- 33:49Speaker 1: look who they play next week. This is a sandwich
- 33:52Speaker 1: spot because not only are they coming off a huge win.
- 33:54Speaker 1: You know, I love sandwiches, and we actually have one
- 33:56Speaker 1: in week one. Not only is Iowa State coming up
- 33:59Speaker 1: a huge win that it was totally misleading. They're having
- 34:03Speaker 1: to travel back from Ireland, but they got their huge
- 34:06Speaker 1: rivalry game against Iowa next week at noon on Saturday
- 34:10Speaker 1: on Fox, so I think they might completely overlook celt Dakota. Man,
- 34:15Speaker 1: this is a bad, bad spot for Iowa State. So
- 34:18Speaker 1: give me the points of South Dakota in this game.
- 34:20Speaker 1: It might be my favorite player of the entire week. Man,
- 34:23Speaker 1: it's a fucking FCS team. But yeah, if you can
- 34:25Speaker 1: find that at your books, hopefully, I mean, I get it.
- 34:30Speaker 2: It's Week one.
- 34:30Speaker 1: Weird stuff is going on. I no Texas, the numbers
- 34:33Speaker 1: not there anymore. Celt Dakota is an FCS team, So
- 34:35Speaker 1: maybe your books don't have this game, but it's a
- 34:38Speaker 1: great play in my opinion, Man, Celt Dakota. All of
- 34:43Speaker 1: the games you want me to talk about? All the games?
- 34:47Speaker 1: Next up, we got LSU Clemson Clemson minus three and
- 34:52Speaker 1: a half. I'm gonna give that out as a playof that.
- 34:53Speaker 1: This line is moving, man, So if you want to
- 34:56Speaker 1: lay four, I think you might be able to. Holy crap, man,
- 34:59Speaker 1: Central Michigan might actually beat San Jose State. San Jose
- 35:02Speaker 1: States a double digit favorite. San Jose State is not
- 35:05Speaker 1: even scoring in this game. Week one is so weird.
- 35:08Speaker 1: Man Central Michigan not a good team at all. Clemson,
- 35:11Speaker 1: they're already up to four. I think the professional money
- 35:13Speaker 1: is coming in on Clemson. If you want to get it,
- 35:16Speaker 1: I think you got to get on it. Unfortunately, it
- 35:18Speaker 1: was not at three like when I looked at it,
- 35:20Speaker 1: it was three and a half most of the week.
- 35:22Speaker 1: You might still be able to find three and a
- 35:23Speaker 1: half's out there. If not, you might have to lay
- 35:25Speaker 1: a four. I mean it's a little bit of a difference.
- 35:28Speaker 1: Four is a slightly key number, of three is more key.
- 35:31Speaker 1: You're already on the wrong side of three. But I
- 35:34Speaker 1: still think it's correct in this one man sixty to
- 35:38Speaker 1: take a sixty five percent of the cash coming in
- 35:40Speaker 1: on Clemson.
- 35:41Speaker 2: So I think the actual money is coming in on Clemson.
- 35:45Speaker 1: I know it's a big game for both teams, of course,
- 35:46Speaker 1: and I think this is the battle of Death Valley,
- 35:48Speaker 1: right because I think both of these teams call their
- 35:51Speaker 1: home stadium death Valley. If I'm not mistaken, is that true.
- 35:54Speaker 1: I don't know the money's coming in on the under.
- 35:56Speaker 1: It looks like those sixty one percent tickets on the
- 35:58Speaker 1: over fifty cash on the under. The total went up
- 36:01Speaker 1: though a little bit, to fifty seven and a half.
- 36:04Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure that this is gonna be an
- 36:07Speaker 1: under type of game though, mean even though, like I
- 36:08Speaker 1: did just say that playoff style games, playoff atmosphere games
- 36:12Speaker 1: in Week one do tend to go under, but I'm
- 36:14Speaker 1: not so sure this one is going to because this game,
- 36:17Speaker 1: we have two experienced quarterbacks going at it in this game. Man,
- 36:21Speaker 1: So we have nus Meyer for LSU, where the whole
- 36:24Speaker 1: question over the offseason was is Nussmeyer going to enter
- 36:28Speaker 1: the draft or is he going to be back with LSU?
- 36:30Speaker 1: And he decided to come back to LSU for his
- 36:32Speaker 1: final year of eligibility.
- 36:34Speaker 2: So he's a very experienced quarterback. We know that.
- 36:37Speaker 1: But same thing goes to Clemson Club Nick Caid Clubnick.
- 36:42Speaker 1: For Clemson and Clemson, not only is Clubnick coming back,
- 36:45Speaker 1: but they have the most returning production out of any team,
- 36:49Speaker 1: their highest in returning production and they have the second
- 36:51Speaker 1: most returning starters. But they have more returning production than
- 36:55Speaker 1: Arizona State because it's the returning production overall has to
- 36:58Speaker 1: do with also, like how many of your backups are
- 37:00Speaker 1: there last year and whatever, and how much production the
- 37:04Speaker 1: players gave you last year. So Clemson, they're the highest
- 37:07Speaker 1: in all of FBS football in returning production. They got
- 37:11Speaker 1: club Net coming back, they got three wide receivers coming back.
- 37:15Speaker 1: Their entire offensive line, I believe, except for one guy,
- 37:18Speaker 1: is coming back, and eight players on their deepense are
- 37:21Speaker 1: coming back. So they have eight out of eleven players
- 37:23Speaker 1: on both sides of the ball coming back. That is
- 37:25Speaker 1: huge for Clemson. Clemson is trying to win a championship
- 37:28Speaker 1: this year. And man, so I think Clemson they got
- 37:30Speaker 1: the continuity. Obviously, they have the same coach Sweeney there.
- 37:35Speaker 1: They have more continuity than LSU here man. LSU only
- 37:37Speaker 1: has seven returning starters, and yes, I know Nussmeyer is
- 37:41Speaker 1: one of them.
- 37:42Speaker 2: He's their leader.
- 37:43Speaker 1: But they lost their entire offensive line except for one guy,
- 37:46Speaker 1: their center, so they lost eighty percent of their offensive line.
- 37:49Speaker 1: They have one running back, one my receiver coming back,
- 37:51Speaker 1: and they only have three guys returning on deepfense with Weeks
- 37:55Speaker 1: is their best defensive player basically, so he is coming
- 37:58Speaker 1: back their linebacker. His older brother I think was also
- 38:02Speaker 1: on LSU's defense. He must have graduated or something. West Weeks.
- 38:07Speaker 1: If you watch the sec Netflix documentary that they have
- 38:12Speaker 1: out there, it's pretty fun. Actually, The Weeks brothers are
- 38:15Speaker 1: actually pretty fun to watch.
- 38:17Speaker 2: I like those guys.
- 38:18Speaker 1: They got that real, like down down home, like southern
- 38:21Speaker 1: boy Aura. I don't like LSU, but I like those
- 38:25Speaker 1: two dudes, not Smyers seems like an alright dude as well,
- 38:29Speaker 1: to be honest, but I'm not gonna like him in
- 38:31Speaker 1: this game. I tend to not like LSU's football program,
- 38:34Speaker 1: but I really don't like Brian Kelly, their coach.
- 38:37Speaker 2: Man. I don't think Sweeney.
- 38:38Speaker 1: I'm not a huge fan of Sweeney for Clemson, to
- 38:40Speaker 1: be honest, but I mean he's been there and done that,
- 38:44Speaker 1: so I mean I actually trust him more than Brian Kelly.
- 38:47Speaker 2: Kelly, I mean the knock on him.
- 38:49Speaker 1: Of course, he's never won a championship, but not only that,
- 38:51Speaker 1: Kelly tends to be really really bad in Week one.
- 38:54Speaker 1: Kelly with LSU has not won a Week one game,
- 38:58Speaker 1: and he's lost I believe his last six games in
- 39:01Speaker 1: Week one, going back to I think when he was
- 39:02Speaker 1: still a coach with Notre Dame or whatever. So Brian
- 39:05Speaker 1: Kelly is actually terrible in Week one, and I'm just
- 39:09Speaker 1: I'm not even sure that he's really that excellent a
- 39:11Speaker 1: coach to me, honest, man. So I actually think Sweeney
- 39:14Speaker 1: has the coaching edge here in addition to getting all
- 39:17Speaker 1: this continuity edge of returning starting edge for Clemson here.
- 39:21Speaker 1: So I like Clemson, and this is at Clemson. Man,
- 39:24Speaker 1: this is a hostile environment. Yeah yeah, fuck you, CBS Sports.
- 39:27Speaker 1: I accidentally refreshed the page, and now CBS Sports is
- 39:30Speaker 1: like telling me you gotta get rid of your ad blocker.
- 39:34Speaker 2: Yeah fuck you. It's not gonna let me even do it.
- 39:36Speaker 1: Man, this motherfucker I absolutely hate it, man, So.
- 39:43Speaker 2: I guess I gotta just do it whatever.
- 39:47Speaker 1: Anyway, I don't know what I was even saying, but yeah, Clemson,
- 39:51Speaker 1: they're again, they're at home as well. It's gonna be
- 39:54Speaker 1: a really hostile environment. I think this is another one
- 39:56Speaker 1: of the spots where the SEC team is probably actually
- 39:59Speaker 1: getting over hype too much.
- 40:01Speaker 2: LSU.
- 40:02Speaker 1: I mean, they didn't have that great a season in
- 40:04Speaker 1: the last couple of seasons.
- 40:05Speaker 2: Man.
- 40:05Speaker 1: Yes, there's talk about them competing for a championship this year.
- 40:08Speaker 1: I've heard professionals talk about it. I talked about it
- 40:11Speaker 1: on my preview show. I did say that LSU certainly
- 40:14Speaker 1: has a good shot to make the playoff and then
- 40:16Speaker 1: what if they do. You know, anything goes really but
- 40:21Speaker 1: I think in week one, especially week one, is where
- 40:24Speaker 1: the returning starters really matter. Like if you have not
- 40:27Speaker 1: a lot of experience, not a lot of continuity in
- 40:28Speaker 1: week one, it's gonna take some adjustment time, man. So
- 40:32Speaker 1: the team's gonna have to adjust for the first couple
- 40:33Speaker 1: of weeks. Whereas Clemson, they're like ready to go.
- 40:36Speaker 2: Man. They brought most of their guys back.
- 40:38Speaker 1: I think they're pissed about a last year ended they
- 40:40Speaker 1: lost to Texas, I believe, right, so they're gonna want
- 40:44Speaker 1: to get back to it and do it again, man.
- 40:47Speaker 2: LSU.
- 40:48Speaker 1: I questioned their defense as well. I actually think Clemson
- 40:50Speaker 1: might have the better defense here.
- 40:52Speaker 2: LSU.
- 40:52Speaker 1: Their defense hasn't played well the last couple of years,
- 40:55Speaker 1: so I.
- 40:56Speaker 2: Like Clemson in this spot.
- 40:57Speaker 1: I'm not convinced that LSU is the better these two
- 41:00Speaker 1: teams either, which they're not ranked higher either. Right, this
- 41:03Speaker 1: is number ten, I think versus number nine versus four.
- 41:06Speaker 1: Excuse me, so Clemson is ranked higher, but I think
- 41:09Speaker 1: it's actually legitimate. In this case, a Clemson, we'll be
- 41:12Speaker 1: the play in that one. Zach, what's up man? You
- 41:16Speaker 1: know like Brian Kelly, Yeah.
- 41:19Speaker 2: You're a Notre Dame fan. Notre Dame. Well, I'm about
- 41:22Speaker 2: to talk about them right now, and you're not gonna
- 41:24Speaker 2: like this. But Notre Dame.
- 41:26Speaker 1: I agree with you that Freeman is at his name.
- 41:29Speaker 1: He's He's definitely a better coach than Brian Kelly. I mean,
- 41:32Speaker 1: he got the most out of his players last year.
- 41:34Speaker 1: But we're going to Sunday here. I'll reiterate this when
- 41:38Speaker 1: I do my Sunday morning show. But I'm gonna give
- 41:40Speaker 1: out Miami Florida plus the three. Again, we're gonna go
- 41:44Speaker 1: within a ACC team. What am I doing here? Man,
- 41:47Speaker 1: I'm gonna give about two plays on ACC teams, even
- 41:50Speaker 1: though I think the ACC is ass. Yeah, I know
- 41:54Speaker 1: they are ass. But we're gonna go with Miami in
- 41:57Speaker 1: this one. Man, this is another ranked match up here.
- 42:00Speaker 1: This is six Notre Dame against number ten Miami. But
- 42:04Speaker 1: I think this all really has to do with a
- 42:06Speaker 1: quarterback experience, and I think this is also kind of
- 42:08Speaker 1: a letdown spot.
- 42:09Speaker 2: But I think there's also kind of a unique or
- 42:11Speaker 2: a hangover.
- 42:11Speaker 1: Spot for Notre Dame, I should say, but I think
- 42:13Speaker 1: this is also kind of a unique spot from Miami's quarterback.
- 42:17Speaker 2: Here.
- 42:17Speaker 1: Now, Notre Dame, we know they made the championship last year.
- 42:20Speaker 1: They lost to Ohio State.
- 42:22Speaker 2: Notre Dame.
- 42:23Speaker 1: If you watched my show, I was talking about how
- 42:25Speaker 1: I didn't even like Notre Dame to get past Georgia
- 42:27Speaker 1: in the playoff. Man Notre Dame. Yeah, I mean they're
- 42:31Speaker 1: a good team. Obviously, they have a good defense, they
- 42:33Speaker 1: have a really good coach. I don't know how many
- 42:36Speaker 1: of these guys are coming back. Let me see, we
- 42:38Speaker 1: know their quarterbacks not coming back. They do have eleven
- 42:40Speaker 1: returning starters, including their running back at six of their
- 42:44Speaker 1: defensive players, so that's good. Yes, they have a lot
- 42:46Speaker 1: of attorney production. Jeremiah Love spelled with a y, which
- 42:50Speaker 1: is really gay. By the way, his parents did him.
- 42:53Speaker 2: No favors with that. He's returning. Yes, he's good. Yes,
- 42:56Speaker 2: he's probably gonna be the focal point of their offense.
- 42:58Speaker 2: Notre Dame like to run the ball, they like to
- 43:01Speaker 2: possess the ball. They like to play defense. None of
- 43:04Speaker 2: that is gonna change. They have the same coach.
- 43:05Speaker 1: But I think coming into this game, even though I
- 43:08Speaker 1: know I don't like Miami's defense, I get it. I
- 43:10Speaker 1: don't like their coach at all, Mario Crystaball. I don't
- 43:13Speaker 1: like the fact they only have eight returning starters, but
- 43:15Speaker 1: they do have five returning starters on defense, so the
- 43:18Speaker 1: defense does have at least a little bit of continuity,
- 43:21Speaker 1: which is at least something. And yes, I know their
- 43:23Speaker 1: offense isn't returning a lot of guys, but we know
- 43:26Speaker 1: that Miami's quarterback that is coming in is a way
- 43:30Speaker 1: more experienced quarterback. And yes, I know I don't like
- 43:32Speaker 1: Miami's coach, Crystal Ball. He's an idiot, He's the He's
- 43:36Speaker 1: a huge coaching disadvantage here.
- 43:38Speaker 2: I understand that crystal Ball sucks. I hate him.
- 43:41Speaker 1: He's way worse than Freehman is his name right for
- 43:45Speaker 1: Notre Dame. But Miami, I think the quarterback experience edge
- 43:51Speaker 1: is gonna loom large in Week one. Man especially Miami
- 43:53Speaker 1: is at home as well, which I'll talk about how
- 43:56Speaker 1: I think they do have a pretty decent home advantage
- 43:58Speaker 1: here as well. But Carson Beck is coming in and
- 44:01Speaker 1: all I've heard is Carson Beck being shit on by
- 44:03Speaker 1: everybody with the way that it ended for him with Georgia.
- 44:06Speaker 2: People think he looks like a bird.
- 44:07Speaker 1: People think he isn't good whatever. He got hurt and
- 44:11Speaker 1: he didn't finish last season. But dude, Carson Beck, he
- 44:14Speaker 1: was the started quarterback for Georgia. He was facing SEC depfenses,
- 44:18Speaker 1: and now he's gonna be playing for Miami. And yes,
- 44:20Speaker 1: I know he's facing Notre Dame here. Notre Dame is
- 44:22Speaker 1: a good defense. I don't think Notre Dame is quite
- 44:24Speaker 1: at the level of many of those SEC defenses that
- 44:27Speaker 1: Carson Beck was facing. Man, So Beck at least he
- 44:30Speaker 1: knows how to do it. He has experience. He's an upperclassman.
- 44:34Speaker 1: He's got experience playing in big games. He's got experience
- 44:36Speaker 1: playing against good deepfenses. So I think Beck is gonna
- 44:39Speaker 1: be fine here. I think it's a good thing for Miami.
- 44:42Speaker 1: Rare situation, manber Miami had the number one draft pick
- 44:45Speaker 1: cam Ward, they lost him, and they just reload right
- 44:49Speaker 1: away and they bring in a solid quarterback.
- 44:51Speaker 2: That's what they're doing here.
- 44:52Speaker 1: I think it will actually go well for Beck, especially
- 44:55Speaker 1: in the ACC but I think it'll go well from here.
- 44:57Speaker 2: Man.
- 44:57Speaker 1: Notre Dame again, I still think Notre Dame wasn't his
- 45:00Speaker 1: because they looked last year because they played a pretty
- 45:02Speaker 1: weak schedule, man, because they're an independent, they're not in
- 45:05Speaker 1: a conference. They didn't play a whole ton of like
- 45:08Speaker 1: big games. But they do have some bigger games at
- 45:10Speaker 1: the beginning of their schedule this year and this is
- 45:12Speaker 1: one of them. This is, of course, the Catholics versus
- 45:15Speaker 1: Convicts rivalry. It's a big rivalry, the Catholics being Notre
- 45:19Speaker 1: Dame of course the Catholic school. But I'm siding with
- 45:21Speaker 1: the convicts here, man, all of the criminals that live
- 45:25Speaker 1: in Miami. That's where we're going in this one. I
- 45:28Speaker 1: think they'll maybe they'll do something criminal in this game
- 45:31Speaker 1: and pull it off, man. But that's what I'm going
- 45:33Speaker 1: with here. And I do think Miami has a home
- 45:34Speaker 1: edge here as well. I think the crowd is gonna
- 45:37Speaker 1: be there in huge numbers. I mean, it's an opening game,
- 45:40Speaker 1: it's a home opener, huge game against Notre Dame. But
- 45:44Speaker 1: I think Notre Dame will be hungover from losing the championship.
- 45:46Speaker 1: I think that is kind of a historical trend there
- 45:49Speaker 1: with a team that loses the championship tends to not
- 45:52Speaker 1: do that well in the first game next year. The
- 45:54Speaker 1: next year because they did play that means they played
- 45:57Speaker 1: a little bit deeper, so they had shot offseason, right,
- 46:01Speaker 1: they had to go through those physically punishing games all
- 46:04Speaker 1: the way to the championships. That's a bit of a
- 46:06Speaker 1: disadvantage there, man, And all of that just to lose
- 46:09Speaker 1: in the end. So I think it's gonna be a
- 46:11Speaker 1: bit of a hangover spot. I think it also causes
- 46:13Speaker 1: Notre Dame to be overvalued here. I actually think Miami
- 46:16Speaker 1: is a little bit undervalued, even though Miami is a
- 46:19Speaker 1: team that I generally don't like. I don't like their defense,
- 46:22Speaker 1: I don't like their coach. I did say all that,
- 46:24Speaker 1: but I also think that in this game. Let's take
- 46:25Speaker 1: a look at the weather here in this game, eighty
- 46:29Speaker 1: three degrees. It looks like there might be rain, lightning.
- 46:31Speaker 1: But here's the thing, man, I know it's a night game,
- 46:34Speaker 1: so the heat won't be as extreme. But Notre Dame,
- 46:38Speaker 1: I mean, they're more of a cold weather team met
- 46:40Speaker 1: although I know, like in college, you don't really play
- 46:42Speaker 1: that much cold weather.
- 46:44Speaker 2: Really like it. It gets a little bit colder towards
- 46:46Speaker 2: the end of the season.
- 46:46Speaker 1: But this is gonna be like a heat game. Man,
- 46:49Speaker 1: It's in Miami in Week one. It's gonna be in
- 46:51Speaker 1: the eighties in Miami. With I think they should do,
- 46:54Speaker 1: which I don't think South Florida did on Thursday night.
- 46:57Speaker 1: I think Miami should wear their white uniforms of forced
- 47:00Speaker 1: Notre Dame to wear dark uniforms that have to collect
- 47:03Speaker 1: more of the heat. Although that would make more sense
- 47:05Speaker 1: in a day game. But so I think the heat
- 47:07Speaker 1: might actually help Miami as well in this game. And
- 47:10Speaker 1: this is also a market read type of play here
- 47:13Speaker 1: where the market is also on my side on this.
- 47:16Speaker 1: The line did go up from two to three, but
- 47:18Speaker 1: I think it was a lot of public action doing
- 47:20Speaker 1: that because you know, this is gonna be one of
- 47:22Speaker 1: the most publicly bet games of the week.
- 47:23Speaker 2: Man.
- 47:24Speaker 1: This is the bailout game, because basically, what recreational betters
- 47:27Speaker 1: will do is if they play all these college football
- 47:30Speaker 1: games on Saturday and they lose, they're gonna try to
- 47:33Speaker 1: bail themselves out by playing the games on Sunday. And
- 47:35Speaker 1: which game on Sunday is gonna get the most attention? Yeah,
- 47:38Speaker 1: it's gonna be this Notre Dame Miami game. It's gonna
- 47:41Speaker 1: be a huge game. That's gonna be the one of
- 47:42Speaker 1: the most publicly bet games of the entire weekend because
- 47:45Speaker 1: it's an isolated game.
- 47:47Speaker 2: Sixty percent tickets, only fifty two.
- 47:49Speaker 1: Percent of the cash coming in on Notre Dames, so
- 47:52Speaker 1: they're public, they're a public road favorite. I'm gonna say,
- 47:56Speaker 1: grab the points here. And the totals also drop from
- 47:58Speaker 1: fifty four and a half through the keynot number of
- 48:00Speaker 1: fifty one to fifty and a half, So that's a
- 48:02Speaker 1: good sign for taking the points as well. That the
- 48:04Speaker 1: total has gone down, it's expected to be a lower
- 48:06Speaker 1: scoring game. So for all those reasons, Miami is going
- 48:11Speaker 1: to be the play in that one.
- 48:13Speaker 2: What was the question from Curtis? Let me say, Nate,
- 48:15Speaker 2: what's up? Man? Who wins the national championship first? Brian
- 48:21Speaker 2: Kelly or Notre Dame?
- 48:26Speaker 1: Notre Dame neither, But maybe I think Notre Dame has
- 48:31Speaker 1: a better shot to do it. I mean they do
- 48:32Speaker 1: have the better coach right now, it's a toss up. Yeah, Well,
- 48:36Speaker 1: if it's a toss up, then yeah, taking the points
- 48:38Speaker 1: at home kind of does make sense.
- 48:40Speaker 2: Hey, you guys are up late.
- 48:41Speaker 1: Well I'm about to be done with this one. Beck
- 48:44Speaker 1: with the beak. Yeah, that's right, Carson Beak.
- 48:48Speaker 2: That's true.
- 48:48Speaker 1: Actually, I forgot to mention that, thank you, Zach. Notre
- 48:50Speaker 1: Dame also lost their defensive coordinator, so they might have
- 48:53Speaker 1: a little bit of lack of defensive continuity right away
- 48:56Speaker 1: as well.
- 48:58Speaker 2: Georgia. Yeah, Georgia full of convicts as well. Georgia.
- 49:01Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be stocked, like stacked again this year, reloaded, restocked, whatever.
- 49:06Speaker 1: I think Georgia will be good again. Every historically black
- 49:10Speaker 1: college or the convicts is Miami even one.
- 49:13Speaker 2: I think Miami's more Latino dudes.
- 49:16Speaker 1: Before I get out of here, I'm gonna talk about
- 49:17Speaker 1: a couple other games real quick, because I forgot. There's
- 49:19Speaker 1: a Monday night game because NFL has not started yet,
- 49:23Speaker 1: So before NFL starts, we actually get a Monday night
- 49:25Speaker 1: game between TCU and North Carolina. So Bill Belichick gets
- 49:31Speaker 1: to be on an isolated TV game.
- 49:33Speaker 2: Isn't that just great?
- 49:34Speaker 1: We get to see Belichick with North Carolina and TCU,
- 49:37Speaker 1: despite being on the road, is moved from a pick them.
- 49:40Speaker 2: To a three and a half point favorite.
- 49:42Speaker 1: Through the three and a half fifty eight percent taket
- 49:44Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the cash coming in on TCU.
- 49:48Speaker 1: I mean, I agree with that move. I agree with
- 49:50Speaker 1: TCU in this game. They do have nine returning starters,
- 49:53Speaker 1: including Hoover, their quarterback, five of their defensive players. Even
- 49:57Speaker 1: though TCU's defense has been really bad, but North Carolina's
- 50:01Speaker 1: defense is even worse man and they're only bringing back
- 50:03Speaker 1: two guys. They're not returning their quarterback.
- 50:06Speaker 2: They have a new coach, so North Carolina is gonna
- 50:09Speaker 2: have way more turnover getting Belichick there, and they're way
- 50:11Speaker 2: too hyped because they have Belichick there. TCU is actually
- 50:15Speaker 2: flying a little bit under the radar coming into this game.
- 50:17Speaker 1: TCU has more of the continuity, so I agree with
- 50:20Speaker 1: that move. I just don't really think you can lay
- 50:21Speaker 1: three and a half with TCU. But if you want
- 50:24Speaker 1: to go with like a money line or something on TCU,
- 50:26Speaker 1: I do think they're the correct side in that game.
- 50:28Speaker 1: And North Carolina, again, their defense.
- 50:30Speaker 2: Has been unbelievably bad the last few years, worse than TCUs.
- 50:34Speaker 1: Even so, it also seems like an over. It would
- 50:37Speaker 1: makes sense in this game with two horrific defenses, but
- 50:40Speaker 1: the money all came in on the under. It was
- 50:42Speaker 1: a high total of fifty nine and a half and
- 50:44Speaker 1: it's down to fifty six sixty eight percent takes ninety
- 50:47Speaker 1: four percent of the cash in the under. I'm not
- 50:50Speaker 1: even sure I agree with it. Under in that game
- 50:51Speaker 1: of the week one, it's kind of difficult to play overs.
- 50:55Speaker 1: Let me just see if there are any other games
- 50:56Speaker 1: real quick that I had, you know, some opinions on
- 51:00Speaker 1: there might be somewhat interesting games to talk about here.
- 51:04Speaker 1: Utah Ucla is actually kind of an interesting one. Belichick
- 51:08Speaker 1: is gonna be coaching in easy mode against easy mode. No,
- 51:12Speaker 1: I disagree with that. North Carolina is gonna be absolute ass. Dude,
- 51:16Speaker 1: they don't if they don't have good personnel. I think
- 51:19Speaker 1: Belichick is old, he's over hyped. I think basically his
- 51:22Speaker 1: girlfriend is actually coaching the team right now. The way
- 51:25Speaker 1: that that relationship is going, I think North Carolina is
- 51:28Speaker 1: gonna be awful. Utah Ucla is really interesting. Actually, Utah
- 51:32Speaker 1: is up from four and a half to six. This
- 51:34Speaker 1: is an old PAC twelve game, Mamber. Now Utah is
- 51:37Speaker 1: in the Big twelve and UCLA is in the Big ten.
- 51:41Speaker 2: So Utah.
- 51:41Speaker 1: Here's the thing, man, Utah is used to playing in Ucla,
- 51:45Speaker 1: So it's not really a spot that Utah is unfamiliar
- 51:48Speaker 1: with going to going to UCLA, so that's not horrible
- 51:51Speaker 1: for them. Sixty five percent tickets, only sixty one percent
- 51:54Speaker 1: of the cash on Utah, even though they've moved up
- 51:56Speaker 1: to six. So even though it looks like the public
- 51:58Speaker 1: is kind of on Utah going against them, I lean
- 52:00Speaker 1: to Utah in this game. Man, if you watch my
- 52:04Speaker 1: college football preview show, I like Utah to win the
- 52:07Speaker 1: Big Twelve this year.
- 52:08Speaker 2: I think Utah is gonna be good.
- 52:09Speaker 1: And one of those one of the reasons for that
- 52:11Speaker 1: is that they have a physical defense, and they are
- 52:14Speaker 1: returning some of their guys man from last year. Like
- 52:17Speaker 1: I mentioned, Isaac Wilson is returning, but it actually seems
- 52:19Speaker 1: like they're going with a different quarterback. So that's the
- 52:22Speaker 1: one thing that I kind of worry about, is that
- 52:24Speaker 1: Utah actually does have a new quarterback it seems like
- 52:27Speaker 1: coming in there now. Although they do have winning him
- 52:29Speaker 1: their coach, he's been there forever. They have some defensive
- 52:31Speaker 1: continuity there, and they have a physical defense, which I
- 52:34Speaker 1: think can give you CLA problems because UCLA is one
- 52:37Speaker 1: of those kind of finesse type of teams that might
- 52:39Speaker 1: not be that good against a physical defense, although they
- 52:42Speaker 1: do have the quarterback transfer iamalav However, you pronounce his
- 52:46Speaker 1: name from Tennessee, so he is used to facing punishing
- 52:49Speaker 1: defenses in the SEC. So there is that at least.
- 52:52Speaker 1: But he's also a new quarterback and UCLA has to
- 52:55Speaker 1: get used to having him there. He has to get
- 52:57Speaker 1: used to a new system there, so I think there's
- 52:59Speaker 1: gonna be some continenty issues with UCLA early on. So
- 53:03Speaker 1: my lean in that game is actually Utah, but it's
- 53:06Speaker 1: not a very strong lean for me in that one
- 53:08Speaker 1: slight lean and then I mean any other games of
- 53:13Speaker 1: note here. I know that there's a lot of professional
- 53:16Speaker 1: money coming in on Georgia Southern at Fresno State, even
- 53:19Speaker 1: though they're having to go play a late game on
- 53:21Speaker 1: the Pacific Coast, but it is at least the first
- 53:24Speaker 1: game of the season, so they might be able to
- 53:25Speaker 1: get out there early and adjust their biological clocks.
- 53:28Speaker 2: I don't really remember what the reasoning was from.
- 53:30Speaker 1: The professional betters here, but Georgia Southern has flipped from
- 53:33Speaker 1: plus two to minus one and a half. They're actually
- 53:35Speaker 1: favored against Fresno State. Now, I think part of The
- 53:38Speaker 1: reasoning is that Fresno they've already played a game, and
- 53:41Speaker 1: I think that's actually gonna be seen as a negative.
- 53:44Speaker 1: Even though Fresno got absolutely annihilated in their first game
- 53:47Speaker 1: at Kansas, which I told you I leaned Kansas in
- 53:49Speaker 1: that game.
- 53:50Speaker 2: Fresno, I mean, they're just going through growing pains. Man.
- 53:53Speaker 2: They have a new coach there, EJ. Warner.
- 53:55Speaker 1: Kurt warners Son is their quarterback, and he's a new
- 53:57Speaker 1: quarterback there as well, So I don't think that's a
- 54:00Speaker 1: great thing either for Fresno.
- 54:02Speaker 2: Yes, this is going to be their home opener, so
- 54:04Speaker 2: they should show up for it.
- 54:06Speaker 1: It's kind of a big game in their home opener,
- 54:07Speaker 1: but they're just a bad team with a lot of
- 54:10Speaker 1: continuity issues. At Georgia Southern, I think the thought was
- 54:13Speaker 1: just the Georgia Southern, I believe has a lot more
- 54:15Speaker 1: continuity here. I don't know how many guys they're returning, though,
- 54:18Speaker 1: where are they at here? Forty second in returning production
- 54:21Speaker 1: is actually pretty good for Georgia Southern, just below Utah,
- 54:26Speaker 1: But I know the professional money is coming in on
- 54:28Speaker 1: that side. On Georgia Southern more continuity. The oddsmakers are
- 54:33Speaker 1: actually telling you they're the better team over Fresno, even
- 54:35Speaker 1: though Georgia Southern is in who the fuck knows what
- 54:39Speaker 1: conference they're in at this point.
- 54:40Speaker 2: Where are they in the MAC now? I don't even
- 54:42Speaker 2: know where they're at now.
- 54:43Speaker 1: Kind of weird if they're in the MAC, although I
- 54:44Speaker 1: think they actually are their MAC team favorite on the
- 54:47Speaker 1: road against a Mountain West team, But I actually I
- 54:49Speaker 1: agree with the professionals on that one as well. And
- 54:52Speaker 1: then anything else of note here, I mean Utah State
- 54:55Speaker 1: as a bronco. Mendon Hall is the new coach there,
- 54:59Speaker 1: so just somebody to keep in mine. They're up from
- 55:01Speaker 1: four to six. The money is coming in on them
- 55:02Speaker 1: against UTEP not seventy nine percent take, it's eighty four
- 55:06Speaker 1: percent of the cash. But with Mendenhall, he is returning
- 55:08Speaker 1: to kind of the Mountain West area there.
- 55:11Speaker 2: But Utah State.
- 55:12Speaker 1: They're gonna have to implement a new system there with him,
- 55:15Speaker 1: so there might be some growing pains there. And then
- 55:17Speaker 1: California Oregon State somewhat interesting because it's a competitive line
- 55:21Speaker 1: at one and a half Oregon State. Of course, this
- 55:23Speaker 1: is an old PAC twelve matchup between and now Pack two,
- 55:27Speaker 1: a team in Oregon State as the PAC twelve will
- 55:30Speaker 1: reform next year with a bunch of new teams like
- 55:32Speaker 1: Boise joining it, But for now it's the orphans Oregon State.
- 55:36Speaker 2: And Washington State, and I think that's bad.
- 55:38Speaker 1: I think the fact that it's a pack two those
- 55:40Speaker 1: teams are basically orphan, they're basically homeless, and they're not
- 55:43Speaker 1: as good.
- 55:44Speaker 2: Uh.
- 55:45Speaker 1: Oregon State is sitting at one and a half. It's
- 55:46Speaker 1: gone up a little bit, but seventy percent takes sixty
- 55:49Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them, So Oregon State's.
- 55:51Speaker 2: A public home team here.
- 55:53Speaker 1: It seems like the recreational guys don't like California here,
- 55:58Speaker 1: but I actually the cal.
- 56:01Speaker 2: I don't know if they're necessarily as bad as they look. Man.
- 56:04Speaker 1: I hate how these videos are just playing here. Man,
- 56:07Speaker 1: But whatever, California, they only have seven returning starters.
- 56:11Speaker 2: I don't really know. Is Oregon State even listed on here.
- 56:13Speaker 2: I don't think they are.
- 56:14Speaker 1: I don't know what Oregon State's returney production is, to
- 56:16Speaker 1: be honest, I really have kind of not even paid attention.
- 56:20Speaker 1: They have actually are thirty ninth, so they're not that
- 56:22Speaker 1: bad in returning production. California's is actually less the returning
- 56:26Speaker 1: production so that one certainly won't be a play for me.
- 56:29Speaker 1: But it's an interesting line where it almost looks like
- 56:32Speaker 1: it's so easy to take Oregon State because they're considered
- 56:34Speaker 1: to be pretty good at home. The public seems to
- 56:37Speaker 1: have no faith in Cal at all. But Cal wasn't
- 56:40Speaker 1: that bad last year, although I know they're losing some
- 56:42Speaker 1: of their guys from last year. But it's an interesting one.
- 56:45Speaker 1: I would probably lean to Cal in that game, and
- 56:49Speaker 1: I think that's gonna do it.
- 56:50Speaker 2: That'll do it.
- 56:50Speaker 1: We'll have an hour here for the first first week there.
- 56:55Speaker 1: Sun Belt. That's right, that's where Georgia Tech is the
- 56:58Speaker 1: Sun Belt. Let me see what else? What else are
- 57:02Speaker 1: you guys talking about here? Before I get out of here.
- 57:06Speaker 1: You don't like the University of North Carolina. I'm not
- 57:08Speaker 1: a huge fan either, but I'm I'm really a Duke
- 57:11Speaker 1: hater in the college basketball because I just hate that program.
- 57:16Speaker 1: As far as UNC. I mean, I'm not really a
- 57:19Speaker 1: fan of them either. Georgetown versus Davidson. What is that
- 57:23Speaker 1: is that FB FCS football? I mean, no, I did
- 57:26Speaker 1: not cover that. That's not in my wheelhouse. The Polynesian
- 57:29Speaker 1: Bowl is Utah and UCLA, right, yeah, a lot of
- 57:32Speaker 1: Samoans in that game. The Samoan Bowl. That's right, it's
- 57:36Speaker 1: the Spam Bowl. Correct, Yes, good call, Charles, Thank you, sir.
- 57:43Speaker 1: I've been told I need to get more going on here,
- 57:46Speaker 1: but dude, I forgot. I have a new graphic and
- 57:48Speaker 1: I totally forgot for the breakdown. I should have said
- 57:51Speaker 1: this is the breakdown, and I actually fucked it up
- 57:53Speaker 1: with some white on the left hand side, so I
- 57:55Speaker 1: gotta fix that.
- 57:56Speaker 2: But it's the breakdown. I forgot to do the best.
- 57:58Speaker 1: Bet segment because I had the best bet segment there too. Man,
- 58:02Speaker 1: all right, I gotta fix that breakdown graphic there, but
- 58:05Speaker 1: I'll get on that. But yeah, that's gonna do it
- 58:07Speaker 1: for me anyway. The college football plays of the week
- 58:09Speaker 1: are Texas plus three, although you have to get like
- 58:12Speaker 1: one and a half now on them. I still like
- 58:14Speaker 1: Texas though South Dakota going FCS on that one against
- 58:18Speaker 1: an FBS team plus sixteen, Clemson minus the three and
- 58:21Speaker 1: a half, and Miami Florida plus three. Don't play Miami
- 58:26Speaker 1: Ohio though they already played this week, so that won't
- 58:28Speaker 1: be a problem. They sir, Duke lacrosse. Yeah, they didn't
- 58:33Speaker 1: do it, man, they did not do it. That's gonna
- 58:35Speaker 1: do it for me, though, Learn to tone on Twitter,
- 58:37Speaker 1: learn to tone on Instagram, Gotta get all these Instagram
- 58:40Speaker 1: videos out better off dead like and subscribe to the
- 58:44Speaker 1: channel YouTube audio platform Spotify. Although my dscript is running
- 58:49Speaker 1: out of an hour, so I gotta figure out what
- 58:51Speaker 1: to do about that. Yeah, and what else do I
- 58:54Speaker 1: have to say? I don't even know what else I
- 58:55Speaker 1: have to say about any of this. Yeah, So the
- 58:57Speaker 1: d script is a thing that I'm running into right now.
- 59:01Speaker 1: But I will be on the audio platform still. I
- 59:03Speaker 1: am there, So go give me a review Spotify, Apple
- 59:07Speaker 1: covered in yuke on YouTube my yuke channel where I
- 59:09Speaker 1: have to put my latest yuke covers up there as well.
- 59:13Speaker 1: And then Patreon dot com, slash learned to toad and
- 59:15Speaker 1: there's a yuke Spotify feet on there. Yeah, that's gonna
- 59:20Speaker 1: do it.
- 59:20Speaker 2: Thank you, sir.
- 59:22Speaker 1: Good luck to all of you and whatever you're betting
- 59:23Speaker 1: tomorrow as well. I still not even actually betting any
- 59:27Speaker 1: of these games. Maybe I need to again because I
- 59:30Speaker 1: got to start making some money somehow, man, But we'll
- 59:33Speaker 1: see what happens. It did not go well for me
- 59:34Speaker 1: with the I should have had a winning day today. Man,
- 59:37Speaker 1: That under in that Blue Jays game is really really
- 59:39Speaker 1: gonna irritate me. First five would have been an easy
- 59:43Speaker 1: one in that one.
- 59:45Speaker 2: That's gonna do it.
- 59:46Speaker 1: I'll be back in the morning because I got to
- 59:48Speaker 1: talk about the baseball card tomorrow, so I'll be back
- 59:50Speaker 1: to talk about that. And maybe there's w NBA two.
- 59:53Speaker 1: I don't even know, man, but that's gonna do it.
- 59:55Speaker 1: I'll be back and we'll reanalyze what the market looks like.
- 59:59Speaker 1: I guess in college foot ball, that's the way I
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: usually do it here. I gotta get funnier on this
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: show too, man, I gotta figure it out. I've been
- 1:00:05Speaker 1: told that they need to talk about some weirder bets
- 1:00:07Speaker 1: and stuff, but we'll see. Peace out for now, guys.
- 1:00:09Speaker 1: I appreciate hanging out late at night. That's very late
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: East Coast time. Not gonna get much sleep, but peace, guys,