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From Rate Cut Odds To Medicare Myths: A Pre‑Thanksgiving Market Brief · HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Well, welcome to HBK Provenant Advisors Friday live, which is actually the Wednesday before Thanksgiving of 2025.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: So today is November 26, 2025.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Normally what the partners at HBK Provident Advisors do, of course, Mike and I are partners, uh, and David Harper's another partner.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: But on normally on Fridays, uh 12 p.m.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Eastern Standard Time, we jump onto Facebook and talk a little bit about the markets and financial planning.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but we figured we'd get ahead of this one.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so for the holiday, we can uh enjoy Thanksgiving and maybe even take uh take a little bit of uh extra time off on uh the Friday after Thanksgiving.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: So here we are on Wednesday.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: Mike, happy Thanksgiving to you.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, happy Thanksgiving.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: And uh one of the reasons why we're doing this today is markets are obviously closed tomorrow.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: And Friday, they close at 1 p.m.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: And it's typically a very low volume day.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: We might get some price movement, but most people take that day off in the investment world.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: So we're getting it done today.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: So give you a few extra days to watch it.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: And Mike's back from uh Toronto, of course.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't join us last week, he was up in Toronto.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: We trust you had a wonderful time.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I'll have to post some pictures.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: It was a really cool experience.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: My first time there.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we uh we did one of those afternoon tea things at the Fairmont Hotel.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, yeah.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: Um there's probably 20 teas you could choose from, and then they bring out a tower of food and like snacks.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: Food wasn't that good, but the tea was good, and it was just a cool atmosphere.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: They had everything decorated for Christmas, just beautiful.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and then we did the CN Tower.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: So we went to the top of that, and you have the option to pay more money and go to the very top.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: So we did that, of course.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so that was pretty cool.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_01: We had lunch up there, um, just at like the little cafe thing.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_01: There is a nice restaurant there, but we we just opted for something quick, and it was kind of cool.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_01: There's uh an airport, like a little small plane airport right next to it by the water.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so we watched a couple planes land, so that was a cool experience, and then next door to that is the aquarium.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_01: So we did a quick run through of that.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: Um, then a good shark exhibit, so that was pretty cool.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: And then we did dinner at the Casa Loma Castle, which unfortunately we didn't get to tour because it was closed already.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but we saw from the outside, beautiful big thing about five, not even like three, four miles outside of the main part of town.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: Well, just in Toronto's big, sprawling, so that's still kind of in the city, I think.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and then we did Niagara Falls the next day.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: So we did the boat tour, went to um it drove us between the two waterfalls between the American and Canadian side, got drenched.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and then we had lunch in that little town there, and then stopped at a maple factory and tried some different maple syrups and chocolates.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: And then uh we shopped around.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, they dropped us off at the uh what's it called?
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_01: Niagara Lakes, the town of Canada.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: Niagara on the lakes.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yep, there you go.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: Niagara on the lake, yeah.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: So just a short trip, just a long weekend, but it was good.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we missed you.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: You know, we uh we kind of bumbled through market commentary.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: Uh I believe it was semi-helpful and mostly coherent, but uh so we missed your commentary on Friday.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: But I should say though, well, you're biased.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but I should say there's nothing much more Americana than newlyweds going to uh Niagara Falls.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm glad you and Corinda got to do that.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, very cool experience.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: That's awesome.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: Well, so let's be brief.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get right into this and uh uh catch us up a little bit here, Mike.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so um we're just starting to get some of the economic data roll out after the government shut down.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: So all the data is really stale right now.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: So we got some September numbers, as you know, we're almost done with November.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: So take it with a grain of salt.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we had retail sales came in lower than expected at 0.2%.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_01: Not that great.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: Um, the control group is which is what feeds into GDP, actually contract it for a tenth of a percent.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: So we might see some downward revisions in the GDP number.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: The main drags in retail sales were um sporting goods stores, online sales, um, department stores, and then I believe car parts and and dealerships.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so we'll see if that bounces back.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's it's two months ago, it's so stale.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: Um, same with PPI that came out.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_01: Um nice deceleration from the last reading we got came in at 0.3.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think the last readings were at like 0.8 on a year-over-year basis, headlines at 2.7, and core, I believe, is at 2.6.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_01: So still elevated, but um PPI is the the wholesale number, so that kind of feeds into the the CPI report and um PCE, which we'll get, I believe we get PCE deflator next Friday.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so that's a little later than it normally gets released, but I think that's gonna be the October reading, so a little more updated.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um consumer confidence was terrible, but you have to credit that a lot to the shutdown.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: So again, take out a grain of salt.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: And then the one current indicator we have is the jobless claims, which came in pretty healthy, 216,000.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so that's a good sign.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: And while I'm talking about the labor market, we did get the September non-farm payrolls last Friday, which consensus was calling for about 50,000.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_01: And we actually came in at 116,000, I want to say.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: So a nice beat there.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: Um, although the unemployment rate did take up a 10th to 4.4%.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_01: So I think the labor market's gonna be the key thing to watch in the coming months.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: We have seen a deceleration over the last call it three, four readings.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and that's the that's the fuel engine for for consumer spending and growth.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: So if that thing, if if employment falls, then things start to unwind.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_01: But um if jobless claims are any indication, we're still in decent shape.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_01: Um it's funny, the rate cut odds for December meeting have really been all over the place.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: Um before this this the shutdown ended, uh I can't talk.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_01: Before the shutdown ended, I think there was a 90% chance of a cut in December.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: And then that went all the way down to 30%.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_01: And then with some more data coming out, now we're back up to 85%.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um, the Fed speakers that we've heard from, I think five are in favor of a cut and five are in favor of a hold.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_01: So it's kind of a coin flip at this um point.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_01: I personally am in favor of a cut.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um I think we have to be careful with the labor market at this point.
• 7:09
  unknown: Yeah.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the uh market was pretty excited about the potential for a cut yesterday, being Tuesday, November 25th, 2025.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: Market went uh went up quite a bit.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's been a good week.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so we had a brief pullback.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_01: I think we hit the 5% pullback mark.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um so we did get above the 50-day moving average, and we also got above that big down day last Thursday.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: So both very constructive signs.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: Now we're marginally above today on uh interday trading.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um it's about 2.20 p.m.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: Um we did get briefly above that downtrend line.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_01: So if we see a definitive breakout above that, I will get a little more constructive and bullish, but I'm still thinking that might be a failed attempt, and we might see a little bit more downside risk in the in the coming weeks.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: But we like to let the technicals lead us.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll just continue to keep an eye on that.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: Um so bond yields have been pretty cooperative.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the 10 years trading close to 4% actually dipped a little under 4% today.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: So that's really what companies borrow at and what the mortgage rates are tied to.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a good thing.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: Um, if if the long end does come down, it could be a very good catalyst for housing and in turn the economy.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: So that's what we're keeping an eye on.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_01: Um, unfortunately, I'm I'm not gonna get to watch stocks the rest of the week, just a little bit on Friday, but I guess I'll just eat a bunch of food instead.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I think it's a good plan.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: You know, that's that's kind of interesting.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: You know, you had last week and then this week we have big big day yesterday.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: Uh last week we had some down days, and we have seen, and uh, we should probably bring this up some point on Friday live.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: How often in any given time period, uh, you know, it could be a decade, it could be a week, uh, but this is a little microcosm uh of how often uh big up days are close to big down days.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: So some people would say, hey, uh, you know, I see the markets going down, you know, maybe my crystal ball told me the market's going down, I'm gonna get out, and they miss a big down day.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: And they said, whoa, isn't that great?
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: There's a real, really, historically speaking, there's a high probability they're gonna miss a big up day, whether the next big upday uh covers completely for whatever that down day was, or that down period, week, month, whatever it is.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: But the ups and the downs happen very, very closely together.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why it becomes very, very difficult to do what some people call timing the market, uh, which timing the market in a perfect world, it's not a perfect world, never seen anybody do this well, is getting out when it's going down and then getting back out in before it goes up.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, because those ups and downs happen so closely together.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, first of all, it's hard to have a crystal ball know when those things are going to happen.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's number one.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: And then number two, they happen so closely together, it's hard to get out and they get right back in.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: So I I I just thought that was an interesting uh observation in a very short time period.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_01: In the age of technology, everything happens so quickly, it's amazing.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: And then when we do get any sizable pullback, the media tries to scare the heck out of everyone and well, bad news sells.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: When it's going down and buy at the bottom, but fear fear plays a big role, and unfortunately, they don't get back in a lot of times.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: And fear sells ads, but that's true.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_01: That is true, except except on Friday Live.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_01: We tell it how it is.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: That's a good point.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: Um you know, it's um you know, it it's it's it's interesting.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: We, you know, we talk to folks all the time, and you had mentioned the speed of information, and and when we're talking to folks that we work with or that potentially might want to work with us, you know, the core investing concepts have remained the same.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and in a very basic sense, save as much as you can as often as you can, and give yourself plenty of time towards whatever goal it is that you're working on.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: So uh though those concepts have remained the same.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: What has changed is the speed of information and the accessibility of the information.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: So not only do the markets change very quickly, but you can get news right on your phone very quickly.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: That certainly has changed.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: So when people say to us, well, investing's all different, and you know, it's run kind of by the big players, um don't completely agree uh that uh you know those concepts remain the same, the core concept.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: Save as much as you can, as often as you can, give yourself plenty of time towards any given individual goal.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: But I would concede that the speed of information certainly does make the inflection points quicker and oftentimes more dramatic.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_00: So figured I'd throw that in when you were you know mentioning speed of information.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: So what uh we often do here is on uh Fridays, of course it's Wednesday, but we talk about the uh social posts that we put out.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: So Mike puts out on Mondays, uh kind of a look ahead of the markets, and we change our format a little bit.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: Tuesdays are now Tax Tuesday, Wednesdays are wealth building Wednesday, and Thursdays are think ahead Thursdays.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: So we're trying to make them a little more thematic.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: So we're a little bit late in the week, uh for sure.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but uh we did have a post.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: Uh Mike did put out the week ahead on Monday, on Tuesday.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, we did have a post about how you can go onto the IRS website and help to adjust your withholdings.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, your withholdings uh that you claim in any given year affects what your paycheck is.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, because if you withhold a lot, then then more money goes to the IRS as a credit to you.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and then ultimately over time, that could affect how much you get back or how much you owe when it comes to tax time.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_00: So there is a calculator.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: And there's a there's a a website link in this article that takes you to a calculator that you can plug in your finger it figures, and it'll tell you how much they recommend deducting.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_01: So useful tool if you haven't gone there already.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: It is, it especially for folks with their family situation has changed.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, it's good to um take a look at that.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: Uh talk to your uh HR department to make sure that the uh withholdings are correct.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: So ideally, uh, you know, comes tax time and you don't get money back or you don't owe money.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: If you know if you did it just right, then you sent enough to the IRS throughout the year to cover what taxes you owe.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: And you didn't give them too much as a tax-free loan.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: That is uh if you give them too much and a tax-free loan throughout the year, uh that's when you get uh that's when you get money back after April 15th when you do your taxes.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and then on uh Wednesday, well, that this is the when today is the uh conclusion of my series on why financial planning is more about time than money.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, our two most limited resources are time and money.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: And uh what we try to do is to help people to uh make maximize, make most efficient their most limited resources, time and money.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_00: So when it comes to financial planning, it involves a lot of numbers and it uh contemplates the money.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: But I would submit to you that financial planning is really more about time.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: Quality of your time now, uh protecting uh your the time for your loved ones when you're not here.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_00: And so uh today was just kind of a quick summary of I believe it was a nine-week series, uh, all uh told about why financial planning is more about time than money.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: And uh we believe that and we exercise that here.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_00: The money part of the financial planning is very important.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: The projections and then cash flows and that kind of thing are critically important, but what is it all for?
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: It's for you to maximize uh your most limited resource, which is your time.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_01: And this is the last post of that series, right, Brian?
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_01: Because you're shifting your focus to Tax Tuesday.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so on uh next Tuesday, which is December 2nd, uh I'm starting a new series.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: This one will run well into and through April.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_00: Every Tuesday, I'm gonna have a post.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh very quick hits, uh, quick items on the aspects of financial planning that we come across that uh affect your taxes.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: And it's really uh just something uh each week to kind of um get the creative juices flowing.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you can contact us for more details.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: Certainly talk with your tax preparer if it's uh something that you want to make changes on for your taxes for 2025, which we don't have much more time left or moving forward.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: But uh, these are just uh really quick things to uh think about.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: They're certainly informational, but they are not customized to anybody, any one individual.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: These are broad observations that are applicable to many, uh, but to make it more um to make it more important, if you will, uh to make it more uh specific to you, uh, give us a call, contact us at uh info at hpkprovident.com, uh, and certainly always include uh in those discussions your tax preparer as well.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: And then we're gonna be doing our webinar on December 11th at 5 p.m.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: So make sure you register for that.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_01: Brian's gonna talk about how to save you taxes throughout your lifetime.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: Well, uh yeah, it is it's certainly the ideas with all things known right now, uh current tax rates and deductions and things along those lines, of each phase of your financial life from your early savings phase to kind of when you get into your peak earning years and your peak accumulation years.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_00: And then beyond that, when you get into your decumulation years, so you've got hopefully, you know, a big nest egg, big pot of money uh that you're gonna live on when you're not working full time or not working at your career job.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: And um each of those uh parts of your life have different tax considerations.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_00: And we'll certainly want to look at ways that you can be as efficient as possible and uh mindful of each of those.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, of course, you know, I said earlier, save as much as you can as often as you're saying uh as you can give yourself plenty of money.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: Uh just in that example, if you save as much as you can, there's a lot of different ways to do it.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: And there are some tax advantage ways to save a bunch of money.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and there are other ways that have tax implications.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, saving as often as you can has a tax implication, and then giving yourself plenty of time.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, hopefully, all these pots of money grow.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_00: And as these pots of money grow, they have potential tax implications when you begin to access those pots of money.
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_00: So that's kind of the general idea uh of the webinar.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_00: And again, I will re-emphasize we don't give tax or legal advice, but uh we certainly uh would like to provide education to help people to understand the tax uh implications of the money moves that they make.
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_00: So, yeah, absolutely join us.
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I will try to make it as informative and entertaining as possible.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: Taxes can be dry, uh, but I'll do my best.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sure it'll be great, Brian.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_01: I'm looking forward to joining you on that.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I think we've been getting a lot of questions uh revolving Medicare since we're in the Medicare enrollment period.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_00: Go, sure.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_01: You want to give some insight on that, some tips and tricks?
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: Where do we?
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_00: Well, uh yeah, uh, you know, the really the the super basics of there's two ways to do Medicare.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_00: There's the traditional Medicare where you know you you pay a premium for your Part B.
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_00: Your premium comes out of if you're collecting Social Security.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_00: Uh the default is that it comes right out of your Social Security check, and then what you get is the net, right?
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_00: So you get Social Security, you pay premiums for Medicare Part B.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and then you get the net of that in uh in your checking account.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: What most people end up doing is that they take the traditional Medicare.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_00: Do they take their Part B premium comes out?
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: They oftentimes uh will have supplemental plans.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_00: Medicare Part B does not cover everything.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_00: There are deductibles and there are co-pays.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_00: And so you can get these supplemental plans that you pay an additional monthly amount for that cover some of those.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_00: That's very basic.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, then there are also what they call comprehensive plans.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: And these are oftentimes big healthcare providers in your local area that will say, hey, don't worry about Part B and supplements and trying to figure out what supplement to add to your Part B.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: We'll do it comprehensively.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_00: There will be one premium, sometimes not a premium at all, believe it or not.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but we'll cover everything for you.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_00: And those are uh often very, very convenient.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: There are limitations to some of those plans.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_00: If you go into a comprehensive plan, oftentimes they will expect you to stay within network.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_00: So I am not an advocate for one, the traditional Part B plus some supplements or uh with Part C comprehensive, where there is kind of one group that covers everything for you.
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: These are very personal decisions, everything in Social Security in particular, but everything in financial planning is personal decisions.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but we oftentimes, this time of year, we we we get the question of well, wait a minute, why is somebody on the TV and why am I getting something in the mail that says I'm gonna get like a card to go to my local health club if I do this?
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and my social security is gonna go up.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's a little misleading.
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_00: Really, what they're saying, and it's most often the advertisements for those comprehensive plans.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_00: And what they're saying is if you take the comprehensive plan, we have a deal with some local providers, healthcare providers, and whatnot, because we're a big healthcare company in your area.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_00: We can get you a discount to a health club in that example.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_00: What's really misleading is when they say your social security is going to go up.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_00: Your social security itself is not actually going up.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_00: What your retirement benefit is, or if you're collecting widow benefits or children's benefits or disability benefits, that's not determined by healthcare.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_00: So that underlying Social Security benefit you're getting is not going up.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's a little bit misleading.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_00: However, the net amount that you get might go up.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: So, for example, if you're on Medicare Part B and they take that directly out of your Social Security, you end up with a thousand bucks, right?
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_00: Well, if you sign up with one of these comprehensive plans, they might cover some of that part B, or uh that part B amount might be reduced.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: And so if you sign up with one of those programs, instead of your the net of your Social Security, we gets the positive in your bank being a thousand bucks, maybe starting in January, if you go on one of these comprehensive plans, it's 1100 bucks.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: That's not because your social security went up.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_00: That's because what you have to pay out of pocket to Medicare went down because now it's covered through this comprehensive plan.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: So very misleading.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_00: They're not um it's not untrue.
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you could sign up for a Medicare Part C program where they do give you a membership card to your local health club, and your net check that hits your uh account, your uh bank account every month from Social Security could go up, but that's not because Social Security is going out.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: That's because what you're paying into Medicare is going down because you've selected a different plan.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: So it gets a little misleading.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_00: I know that was super detailed, and I can absolutely see, and I do understand uh why this time of year people get a little bit confused and say, how can my social security go up?
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's not going up.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, if you sign up for one of these programs, it's possible that what you have to pay to Medicare is just going up.
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_01: Well, next Brian.
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_00: You get me wound up on Social Security, and look, I go like so deep in the weeds.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but if you have questions about that, um uh give us a call.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_00: We do not uh, you know, we do not write uh comprehensive plans, we do not supply um the you know, the additional plans for the supplemental plans for Medicare Part B.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_00: These are just things that we feel like we should know to help the folks that we work with.
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_00: There are specialists, um uh health insurance agents that are very specialized in helping people, the good ones will sit down and say, hey, let's look at your choices.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_00: You want to go traditional, you want to go comprehensive, tell me a little bit about how you live your life, tell me a little bit about what medications you take, tell me uh a little bit about what medical providers that you prefer and that you work with on a regular basis.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: And those local agents that uh actually do provide these plans, um, when they're really good at it, they'll say, Well, based on everything you told me, I think this is the best route and the most cost-efficient route.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so but we don't write those actually our our ourselves here.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_00: Just things that uh we come across and we think it's helpful that we understand a little bit.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_00: So, yeah, that's the big one.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_00: The uh the commercials, the the mailers that come out this time of year are just uh you know overwhelming.
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_01: Sounds good, Brian.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_01: So Thanksgiving tomorrow.
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_01: What's the what's the main course for your family?
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_01: Is it you turkey and that kind of thing?
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, we're fortunate today that we go to some relatives, um, and uh it's kind of an all-day affair.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_00: It starts about one o'clock, and there's a whole bunch of fried appetizers, right?
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_00: So you're thinking fried vegetables and and uh the onion rings are particularly wonderful, and so that kind of starts the day.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_00: Um, the main course is actually a baked, a fried, and a smoked turkey.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_00: So we get we get a little bit of each, and I'm gonna tell you that uh when they started doing the fried turkey a few years ago, I thought it doesn't get better than this.
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_00: It actually does.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_00: The smoked turkey is um is an experience.
• 26:01
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: So that yeah, yeah, that's that that's my little commercial.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_00: Takes a lot of time.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_00: You gotta monitor it, make sure the temperature's right, you gotta get a good wood mix and that type of thing.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_00: But oh my habits.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: And it's a lot less dangerous than those fried turkeys, by the way.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_01: That's what I hear.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_01: So who does the who does the smoking?
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, so that is my sister-in-law's uh brother-in-law.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, yeah, yeah.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, Italian family, and you know, you kind of need an overchart as a hell uh everybody's like, you know, you know, a brother, a sister, or a first or second cousin, but it's actually just uh some relatives through marriage.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_01: So how about you guys?
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_01: Anyone has has a unique family dish that they make, feel free to drop it in the comments line.
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_01: I'm always curious to see what different families do for their their main courses inside.
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_01: Not everyone does the traditional turkey and stuffing mashed potatoes, so that's always always fun to hear about people's traditions.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_00: So you guys do uh baked, fried?
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_00: What do you got going on?
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I'm going to my mother-in-law's, and there's there was a ton of food last year.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think they did turkey.
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_01: I think I'm trying to think of the meats last year.
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think they did like a brisket, which was delicious.
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_00: Wonderful.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_01: I think salmon, maybe some chicken.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_01: I but it's all about the size.
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_01: There's so many different potato dishes and vegetable dishes.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I'm gonna bring um, I'm gonna make some spinach all gratten and like a birata salad.
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_01: Um but I couldn't find burrata in the supermarket, so I I went with like uh fresh mozzarella, so hopefully that's not too too different.
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be close enough.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_00: Flavorably similar, texture will be a little bit different.
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_00: No, I like it.
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, uh, I have never tried uh any of uh Mike's specialties, uh the spinach or the uh burrata.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_00: So uh, but I have great faith it'll be delicious.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_00: All right, so that's kind of what we got.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we will not be on the airwaves this Friday, which will be the uh 28th of November.
• 28:16
  SPEAKER_00: We will be back uh the following week.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_00: I don't even know the date.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_00: Is that the 5th?
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: Is that December?
• 28:22
  SPEAKER_00: December 5th.
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_00: Uh that's incredible.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_00: Um you know, people always say the older you get, the faster time goes.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_00: It's true.
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but we'll be back on Facebook, 12:30 p.m.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_00: Eastern Standard Time on Friday, December 5th.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_00: So let's close this out, Mike.
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_00: We've got some very important reminders and disclosures.
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_00: Um, everybody have a wonderful and safe, that's the most important thing.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, Thanksgiving.
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_00: Take care.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_00: Security is offered through LPL Financial LLC, member FINRA, and SIPC.org.
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_00: Advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLC, a registered investment advisor.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_00: Brian Peluso, Michael Kutch, and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLC.
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_00: Content discussed is for informational purposes only and not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment strategy.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial or its affiliates.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_00: All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_00: This communication may include links or references to third party websites.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_00: These links are provided as a convenience only.
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_00: LPL Financial and its representatives are not responsible for the accuracy or content of such sites.
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_00: Brian, Mike, and David, and HBK Provident Advisors may only transact business in states where they are properly registered or exempt from registration.