Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL DFS Week 7 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel Strategy

Transcript

NFL DFS Week 7 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: All systems go.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: Clear for liftoff. What's up everyone, Tyler Tamburlian here, aka
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Totag and Tambo, back for another edition of Leverage Lane
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: here on the Ship It Nation YouTube station. NFL week seven,
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: gonna break it all down for you guys as usual.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: We'll talk about a little bit of last week, recap, evergreen, DFS, strategy,
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: that type of thing. Then we get into this week
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: for the chalk build, how we can leverage the chalk build,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: game stacks and build arounds. And then at the end,
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: of course, Alex and myself will give you our leverage
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: lane for single entry this week. Mr. Alex Blickle, my friend,
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: I'll bring you in week seven, right back to it, man.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: And by the way, I should note this now. I
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: looked at my calendar just to make sure I had
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: it right. If you like, you know, if you want
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: to have a good weekend, great, but stay out of
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: the discords on Monday night, we've got Dallas at Philadelphia, the, uh,
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: your fan base, the Eagles fan base and the Cowboys, man,
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: those are just the worst nights in any DFS discord
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: because those fans just hate each other.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a weird week for Eagles-Cowboys, right? Usually this
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: is one of the most excited weeks for an Eagles fan,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: for a Cowboys fan, and right now it seems like
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: both fan bases are just like, God, this season just sucked.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Why would Monday be any better?
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: Oh, that's going to make it worse, I think, right?
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Now it's like they're too bad or whatever. They're not
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: doing good enough. So it's like they're going to be
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: fighting based off of that. But the good news is
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: I still will get there. That's Monday Night Football. We
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: got a lot of games before that. We got the
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: overseas game in the morning, all the showdown coverage for that.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: You can check it out at ShipItNation.com. And then we've
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: got a bunch of games to talk about on this slate,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: which we will get to. You know, we know the
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: big Detroit Green Bay game, but I think there's like
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Three or four other games that we can build around too.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: So we'll talk about that when we get there. We
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: had some good thoughts pre-show. But let's talk a little
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: bit about last week. Of course, the big conspiracy. This
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: is Leverage Lane, not Narrative Street. But Blake Corum off
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: to a blazing start. And I think it was like
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: with six minutes left in the third quarter. He was
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: at eight carries. His number was eight and a half.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: He's at 42 yards. His number is 42 and a half.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: And then they didn't use them again. No, no need
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: to play Blake Corham when he's just ripping it up
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: out there, having another good game. But what was your
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: thoughts on last week? Anything you want to touch on there?
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I really liked our Corham read. And I think
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: it played out exactly kind of as we hoped, except
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: for the fact that we hoped that they would remain
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: in a good game script in the third and fourth
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: quarter against the Arizona Cardinals. They were not. And so
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: it became all Kyron's backfield again. But the read was
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: once again, really strong there. So I think Quorum's in
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: play again this week. It's weird now because I think
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: the Rams, even last week, their expectations for the season
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: were still, all right, well, we're going to win this
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: game and we're going to be in pretty good shape still.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: And there's still a lot of season left. And now
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: they suddenly lose that game. And it's like, all right, well,
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: we got to start to hustle to just go make
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. And so now maybe it's a little bit
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: more Kyron than Quorum even early on. Uh, maybe they
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: have to like actually create that really good game script.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: And now before quorum starts to get more opportunities, I
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: don't know. So there's a little bit more uncertainty, but
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I really liked that read that we had last week. And, um,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: even not playing the third and fourth, like he was
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: still a very valuable running back play.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: Better than Bijan. I believe if you will, especially for
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: the price per dollar. And you think about that too,
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: I think overall Kyron.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Like, yeah, he got them both. So, yeah.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: So that was the key. I mean, by the way, players,
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: we just saying shit after games now, like Kyra was like,
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: oh yeah, they didn't have me out there. That might
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: be the problem after he was out there. We just explained, like,
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: you got all these touches down the stretch. And then
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Laporta is just like doubling and tripling down on everything
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: that he's been saying this week. I'm pardon my take.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: And I would be like, you got to pay me, man.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: Like I'm better. than some of these other tight ends
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: out there it is uh leverage lane but narrative street
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: for sunday it is national tight end day by the
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: way it feels like it's been that all season we've
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: had a lot of different weeks where it's double tight
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: end or at least two of them come through at
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: an affordable price but there's an interesting one later that
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: people probably already know i'm going to be talking about
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: and that has nothing to do with national tight end
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: day i can promise you that it's not george kittle
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: so the creator of that day just to make it
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: a day but Um, another thing last week was the
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: Chicago side of that game. Like we had the, you know,
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: there was London Bija and all that, but like it
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: started off strong and Caleb was able to come through
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: once Loveland dropped what would have been his second touchdown.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: beelining for out of bounds, even though there was absolutely
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: nobody around him. He dropped that touchdown. It kind of
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: just broke that game. And that was the problem with
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: the rest of that one. You were on a lot
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: of these, you know, we'll get to it for this week.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be funny, but I know you had Tate
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: heavy last week and Carnell Tate just continues. I mean,
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: it's kind of boom or bust, but what more would
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: you want? from a guy like that. It's like when
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: he's coming through, he's getting you big boy points and
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: we'll talk about them again for this week. But that
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: was a really good shout out from you for last week.
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: Anything else that you wanted to touch on just from
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: how that slate played out, leverage lanes, things like that,
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: that you had there.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it was. So the, the big thing that I
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: wanted to just kind of point out from last week's
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: slate is something that I got wrong, which was my
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: kind of view of the slate was, all right, there
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: are three really expensive guys that people want to fit.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Drake Lennon, Bajon Robinson, Puka Nakua. And in order to
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: fit them, they're using a lot of what I viewed
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: as questionable cheap chalk. And so to me, it seems
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: pretty clear that the way to build last week was
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: not to just pivot off the expensive guys and play
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: the same cheap guys that everyone else was playing, but
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: to either use some of the expensive chalk or just
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: pivot to a balanced build And so the big leverage
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: point of the slate was I'm going to do a
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: better job either picking cheap guys that I'm correlating or
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: using just like a more balanced pool than everybody else.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: And essentially just kind of leaning into the idea that
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of the cheap chalk that people were playing
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: had a pretty good chance to fail. Yeah, unfortunately, the
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: slate kind of played out the exact opposite, right? Like,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: you know, the winning lineups had, you know, Jonathan Taylor,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: James Cook.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: Johnny Bernard.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. Jeremy Bernard Malik neighbors. So it was a
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: lot of actually like play the same kind of lineup
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: that everyone else plays and actually differentiate with who you
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: pay up for, particularly running back. Kenneth Walker was, was,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: you know, the big one at running back, I think so.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah. It was, I don't know if that was like
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: a misread or if like, we just have to recognize.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Sometimes even when you have the correct read like that,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: that it's going to play out in a different way.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: I think we we've had this, like, Jameer Gibbs type
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: flow chart all season. And I do think that maybe
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: one of the things that overlooked was the fact that, Hey,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: you know what, even though, uh, and actually like, I
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: thought London and Bajon were pretty good chalk. I did
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: not like the puka chalk. So, um, there was, there
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: was no world where I was playing puka, but maybe
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: even with London and Bajon in what seemed like good spots,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: maybe the correct answer was, yeah, but they're not Gibbs.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: They're still, you know, too likely to, to fail as
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: a result, or at least too likely to not put
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: up a score that you really need and that some
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: of the other studs on the slate can't surpass. And
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: so we do have Gibbs on the slate this week.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: It's an interesting matchup with Green Bay. We're going to
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: talk a lot about it, the price tag. So that's
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: not a segue into, well, let's just follow the flow
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: chart this week and Gibbs is on the slate. Let's
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: play him. It's a longer conversation than that. But I
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: do think that maybe we should just recognize even the
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: spots that look awesome, if they're not Jameer Gibbs in
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: an awesome spot, you can still find leverage off of
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: it because it's NFL DFS and crazy stuff happens.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, that was the thing. Cause everybody busted like
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: last week, you know, you were sitting in the afternoon
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: with Stafford, Puka, Michael Wilson as a run back. You
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: had like everything. Oh, Kelsey was affordable on both sites
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: or whatever you ended up having. And it was just like,
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: obviously once Bijan busts, you know, Kenneth Walker's about to
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: break this slate. He was 200 bucks less. You can't
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: play him anymore.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: In some lineups or the majority when you've got that 8,700
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: bucks spent up top and he was 8,500 last week.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: But a lot of that stuff you talked about is
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: a topic that we can bring right into this week
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: before we get to chalk builds and all that stuff.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: But like these, you know, this week is not much
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: different from that. Like we still had JJ McCarthy last
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: week who ended up coming into the game, neighbors and likely,
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: likely was another chalk piece at tight end, but ended
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: up getting his late. And so those two getting there
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: helps bring those lineups along, even though the Winston's were
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: what were in them because that's what they started with.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: So I know on, you know, some people had some
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: really good lineups where Winston was there at, what was he,
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: what do you have? Eight to 10 points, something light
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: because of what McCarthy did in the fourth quarter. But
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: because those other two pieces were affordable and more popular
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: in that setup, they still came along with no Bijan
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: or sorry, no Gibbs last week. Now it's different this
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: week for sure. Gibbs is on the slate, but that
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: was the takeaway where the flow chart actually said when
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: there's no Gibbs move on and don't just plug in
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: a popular expensive running back. Essentially you're saying you should
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: try and play two receivers. The tricky part is I
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: think for most people, at least I know you said
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: you weren't, but most people that would have meant go
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: to Puka. So it didn't fully work anyway, but there
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: was plenty of alphas that came through as, as wide receivers.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: So we'll think about that for this week. What do
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: you think about this though? Some of the pricing I
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: want to talk about quickly, just nine, like there's so
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: many conversations going on right now. And, Uh, look, we'll
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: get to him later. Brock Bowers last week. It's like,
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: everyone's so happy to victory lap that he was, you know,
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: of course it said we, I thought 7,500 was cheap.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: You said like, I thought it was this, that, and
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: the other it's of course, that's what they're saying now
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: after all these big weeks. that he's had, but like
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Michael Meyer did get what? Seven for 97 or six
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: for 97 or something. So it's again, That's his. They
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: don't belong to Bauer. Brock Bauer, sorry, but I'm saying
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: at the end of the day, he still had a
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: decent ending to the game. Could have been a hell
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: of a lot better, but if any of that stuff
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: was his. But now with Gibbs at 9,800, I hear
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: a lot of people talking about that. And I don't know,
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: what do you see for ownership right now on Gibbs?
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: I think it's interesting because it shows lower than I
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: would expect, but I think when we get to the
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: chalk build and just any builds, he can fit in
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: pretty easily. Yeah.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: I think a little bit higher than most. I still
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: have him approaching 25% in single entries and high stakes,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: over 20% in MME. It's an interesting week for running
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: back ownership because when was the last time that there
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: was a $ 7, 600 running back on the slate that looked
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: like a $ 1, 000 or $ 2, 000 discount relative to some other
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: running backs? It's just we haven't had one of these
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: loaded NFL slates this year, especially not since they started
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: to price guys way up. So it just, it looks
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: totally different. And I think that McCaffrey is going to
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: get a lot of ownership this week for, for good reason, right?
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Like there's no Mike Evans. So you know that the
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: volume is going to be crazy high for him, particularly
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: in the passing game. But I think there's also like
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: a psychological effect here at play, which is, Oh, if
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: I use McCaffrey, yeah, I'm paying $ 7, 600 for running back,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: but I'm also saving $ 2, 000 at running back because I'm
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: not going to go get Gibbs instead. And that just
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: makes him look a little bit more appealing where I
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: don't think that that's actually the case. It's still a
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: bit of a price prohibitive tag there.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a lot of it too. Again, I
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: know we're waiting. They played, when was it, on.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: Thursday or– oh, no, Monday. Monday Night Football, right? And
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: we had to watch the Christian Kirk news right up
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: to Locke because we were all interested in, you know,
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: Brandon Cooks and Jacob Cowling. Really, whatever you were going
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: to play, Watkins, Cowling, whoever you decided to like there.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: But everyone was like, well, wait a minute. If we're
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: about to get Christian Kirk here hopping in most likely
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: to the slot, this could be an opportunity that we
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: see that works out and let's go that route. And then,
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: of course, we got the news it's not going to
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: be this week. Does sound, though, like it's going to
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: be this week, right? What are you thinking there? Yeah.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: He's another guy that's going to fit in when we
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: get later to talking about those value receivers that look,
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: we got two things. We know on this slate, CMC,
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: very popular George Kittle. even more popular because he fills
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: the onesie position and cheaper and all these different factors.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: So I really think there's some good stuff there when
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: we get to it later. Any other topics you wanted
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: to talk about before we get in? I think this
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: is a loaded slate, so there's going to be plenty
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: that comes up throughout. But anything else you wanted to
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: hit on from last week or just game theory, correlation, leverage, stacking,
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: any concepts going into week seven that are on your mind?
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there's one thing here. So we talked already about
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: how like last week it felt like a lot of
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: the cheap chalk wasn't so much chalk because people felt
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: really good about those plays but rather just because people
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: needed to go somewhere and those were like the best
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: options that they could find uh i do think it's
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: a little bit different in this slate where a lot
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: of the cheap chalk does look like actually good chalk
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: or at least they look like good projected value so
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: for example like when i sort uh you know my
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: projections by value the top three are woody marks braylon
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: allen ted hurst that doesn't mean i like any of
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: them that doesn't mean that i love the ceilings for
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: any of them but it does at least mean that like,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: all right, this time you could throw these guys into
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: any slate context and they would all get reasonable ownership.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Whereas last week, the cheap chalk, like you could throw
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: those guys into a lot of different slate contexts. And
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: there'd be a number of them where like they were
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: all single digits and people just weren't paying much attention
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: to them. But the way that the pricing worked last week,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: the way that people wanted to get up to, you know,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: those Atlanta guys and to Puka, they brought all of
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: the ownership of those cheaper guys way up. this time around,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: it looks like these guys, they'd be owned regardless of
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: the slate. And so I do think it's a little
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: bit different in that way. Now, some of the cheap
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: chalk last week ended up hitting it a big way,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: like Jeremy Bernard. And then we also, the other interesting
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: thing about last week was it was just a lower
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: scoring slate, right? The best running back combinations got you
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: like 25, 26, 28, something like that points. Whereas we
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: have a lot of slates where you know, there are
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: multiple guys in the mid thirties and those 25s, like
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: they wouldn't have even helped you that much. So I
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: think all of that is to say that like one
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: of my takeaways from last week was I really, really,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: really want to recognize that was one slate. There are
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of really kind of unique things about that
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: slate that are unlikely to happen again this week. And
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: it's probably worth like almost trying to, remove that from
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: the way we're thinking about this slate because it's really
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: easy to fall into that kind of recency bias. But
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's a whole lot to learn from
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: last week in terms of what is going to win
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: this week, what is going to be successful this week.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you kind of talked me into this right now,
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: but again, just like a concept to take away, the
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: last thing, and then we'll move on, is just my
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: big takeaway from all that conversation, doing Takedown Breakdown on
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Monday and now tying it together, just talking to you
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: this week, is that When you feel like you're just
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: playing cheap chalk to be able to get to what
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: you want to get to because you think you need
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: these guys, that's probably when it's a time to think
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: outside the box. That means it's what a lot of
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: other people are doing. Look, last week, you could have
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: really loved Jeremy Bernard. That's one piece, though. It doesn't
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: mean you have to continue down that path. Well, now
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: that I have him, I need to make sure I
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: get Bijon, London, Puka, and I just have all the guys.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: That's more like a cash game mentality. In a tournament,
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: you can say like, look, I like Jeremy Bernard, but
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: I don't like these three other chalk pieces just because.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: And also think about how you're using that chalk. And
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: we'll get to it for this week in a second.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: But when we get to like the Tampa Bay guys,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: if you like Hurst, you know, with Tampa Bay or whatever,
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: and you say, okay, he's my guy, plugging him in
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: as a one-off, Great. If that's what you're doing, but realistically,
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: if he's going to have a ceiling game and it's
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: going to make everything else work and all that, I'd
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: be looking to see what does that look like with Baker,
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: with something else, with a run back, what actually makes
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: this go and then put it all together. And again,
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: because you like it, not just because it fits everything.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: If you say like, I don't even really like Baker, Hurst,
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: any of these dudes, Godwin's a shell of himself. But man,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: it gets me the running backs. Everyone says they're good.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: You're doing it again. You're saying like, oh, well, it
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: just gets me what I think I need. Play your
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: own process. Play what you think is actually going to
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: happen and then use these concepts and theories to put
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: it together in a way that makes sense. And sometimes
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: that's like a one-off. You're like, eh, I don't really
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: want to play golden at this ownership this week, but
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: I do have Gibbs. They could be the PPR guys.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: And the rest of the lineup is so unique and
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: would still tell a story of how that can take
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: out the Green Bay Detroit game. And if it's all
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: Gibbs and this guy just does enough, I'd rather play
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: Coker here, but I don't have the hundred bucks. So
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: I'll just play Golden because at least it still fits it.
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: Like that's a different story than saying, give me three
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: cheap chalk guys just because they have good point per
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: dollar values. Don't correlate anything. And then let me just
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: fit in all the studs. Like that is not the
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: way to do it for what we're playing in these games.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: these tournaments. And we've showed it a bunch in the past, Alex,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: where a hundred dollars single entry with a hundred K
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: up top, the Delta is different than the $ 20 Millie maker. Yes,
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: but it's not as much, it's not as much as
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: you'll think. Sometimes it's 10 to 15 points. You still
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: need a big boy score going into that a hundred
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: dollars single entry. So just playing it safe because it's
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: all these less entrants. It's like you, it's only really
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: 10 to 15 points typically. And I review it every
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: week for years now. So it's, it's not as much
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: as you might think. And it's got even tighter. I
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: think over, you know, the last couple of years, just
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: people are putting more risk and they're willing to play
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: it there. Any, anything else to add on that? If not, let's,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: let's get into it for this week.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: Let's jump in. All right.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: Going to pull it across here to the site. If
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: you guys didn't check it out, ShipItNation.com. Quickly, you can
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: go check it out. The new site is up and running.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: We adjusted some stuff for members as well. It's just
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: much easier now, especially on the mobile platform for navigation.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: Like you just, how I would always want it. You
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: find your sport. Is it classic or is it showdown?
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: What do I want? And you go there. We are
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: playing NFL. So we'll be going to the Stone 2.0.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: It pops up right away, but then really cool interactivity
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: just for the site again, classic or showdown, flip your sport.
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: It's almost like a house saber SIM or like the
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: optimizers have the flips within it. You can just be
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: within your own screen and flip to the other things here.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: If you want to check other stuff out, but I'll
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: bring up the stone 2.0. Where do you want to
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: start with the chalk build for this week? Or before
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: we get to that, do you want to have like
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: an overarching conversation of just like, we know like, so
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: like Kittle popular CMC, do people play them together? You know, Hearst,
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: we talked about earlier, definitely going to be popular. What
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: else are you seeing? Obviously Jordan love and that stack Gibbs.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: What do you want to talk about here first? Yeah.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Do you want to spend some time on just San
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Francisco or should we kind of do that? uh afterwards
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: because i there's there's some things about this game that
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: i think are worth really talking through kind of in
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: detail um but that might be like after we've already
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: established how people are playing it and and so on.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: I think that's correct because there's already the the initial
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: conversation for me is just like is this going to
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: be a starting point for a lot of people even
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: though it's both in the same game only because i
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: don't think as many people are going to purdy And then,
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, some are for sure. He's getting like seven
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: to 10% in that range is definitely where I put them,
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: but I'm saying it just doesn't feel like the chalk
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: build because people are going to love and golden and
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: you could fit Gibbs or whatever you want to put
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: in there. But how many people do you think are
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: going to play these two together in like an uncommon? stack? Like,
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: let's just say it's like a, you know, I'm going
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: to a Bryce Young stack, but I'm going to use
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: these two or something like that.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good question. Let's let's let's see what
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: we find out. Yeah. So in the in the conditional
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: ownership tool and here I'll bring this up, bring it up.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: We'll swap it. Yeah, cool.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: So we've got, uh, here we go. So I want
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: to put in Christian McCaffrey and then I want to
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: go look at no Purdy. And, uh, just for the
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: sake of it, let's also look at no Pennix. Uh,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: where we go, here we go. All right. So now
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: with McCaffrey, what do we see from Kittle? So it
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: goes down, but not a ton. So still 25% conditional ownership.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it, It does look like people are going
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: to be willing to play them together and just say,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: I want all of the San Francisco usage. I don't
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: need Purdy there. I don't need this to be a
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: game stack. It can just be McCaffrey and Kittle. But
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: I would also say, I don't think that that's necessarily
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: one of the first things that people are deciding. I
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: would almost say, let's go back to the hand-built view
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: that you had and let's start to just go piece
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: by piece into what we expect people to do. And
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: to me, that starts... with Love, McCaffrey, Hurst, and then
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: probably Marks. I would say either Marks or Braylon Allen.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: I think people will save money with one of those
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: spots because right now I've got Marks at 31% in
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: high stakes, 30% single entry, and then Braylon Allen 25%
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: high stakes, 24% single entry. So most lineups are going
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: to include at least one of those guys.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: What's the latest on Brees Hall now? So questionable for Sunday. Still,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: I knew that, but what was the, so he was
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: a limited participant at Thursday's practice. So that's at least
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: somewhat interesting to think about just to take it in here,
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: but let's go back to, let's leave him for now.
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: I also think I want to, I think, what do
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: you have golden at right now?
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Hi. So with, with love, I think the first one
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: in we want is golden. And then, We want to
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: just kind of take a pause and now look at, okay,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: where are we price-wise?
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: So how much do we have remaining per player? I
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: tried to get Gibbs in there, though, because you've got
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: him going up. I've got him going up.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: Let's take him out momentarily because there's a point I
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: want to make here first. Let's also take out Kittle
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: for a second. So we have $ 54. 50 remaining. Now, there
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: are a couple ways that people can do this. Um,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: but notice here, if you try to go for Gibbs,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: if you try to go for St. Brown, if you
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: try to go for Christian Watson, you're starting to really
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: shrink the amount remaining per player. So what I expect
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: people to do is I expect the next click here
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: to be okay. For my second Packer, I'm choosing Tucker
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: craft or for my bring back. I'm choosing Sam Laporta.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: I think one of those two guys is going into
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: the vast majority of these Jordan love lineups. just because
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: it's such an obvious way to save money within the
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: stack that everyone wants to play. It then still gives
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: you access to Christian McCaffrey. This, by the way, is
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: like the only thing that I think keeping Kittle's ownership
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: in check. And consequently, because everyone wants a piece of
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: San Francisco and they either want Kittle or McCaffrey, and
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: we have this one piece that's like keeping Kittle's ownership
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: in check at least a little bit, that also explains
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: why McCaffrey's going up so high. So I always like
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: to kind of explain how I see ownership shaping out
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: the way I do. Um, and I think that this
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: kind of does a good job of that. Now it's
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: very easy for people to go like, all right, well,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: I'll go Sam Laporta here. I'll go Tucker craft. And
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: then I'll also get Kittle. I think we're also going
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: to see some doubles height end from the same game.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: And people will use both craft and Laporta as like the,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: the next two pieces of this game stack. And that
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: would open up a bunch, but, but yeah, like point being, um,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: I think there's a very clear way that people are
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: playing this game, and it's actually trying not to pay
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: up as often as possible. It's trying to pay down
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: as often as possible for this game and just kind
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: of stack it in a little bit of a cheaper way.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: Okay, now we got to do this. This is why
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: I love this experiment. I'm pulling it back up. I
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: want to see two things right now. Cause this is
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: a disagreement on our part here. I think way more
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: people play Gibbs and Gibbs and Kittle. And I know
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: it's not dollar for dollar. So it is what it is.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: And we, but my point is we are landing on
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: like wide receiver. We've got more values. We've got a flex.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: We could use tight end and we've got defense, which
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: could be like a cheap one. I want to see
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: what you've got for how often are McCaffrey and whoever
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: you think is highest of craft or Laporta or wherever
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: else they go. So, so McCaffrey is, and any of
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: the guys you think would be higher with him.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: And we'll get through it.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: Who do you think would, would be the substitute for Kittle?
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: You're saying in those builds where people do sometimes decide,
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: like they're like, I'm only picking one of these guys.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Do you think they go down to craft or do
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: you think they went with Jordan?
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Well, Well, it depends, yeah. So are we talking about
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: just the Love stack specifically?
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, because I'm talking about the chalk field with Love.
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: I'm still thinking it's not with Kraft, but we'll wait
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: and see. Obviously, a bunch more Kraft is in with
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: Jordan Love. I'm trying to see with the chalk-type build
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: here with CMC, Kraft, and Love at quarterback.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, so with Love in, when we go to
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: tight end, we're certainly going to see the big jump
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: from Kraft We also see a pretty nice jump from Laporta.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: To your point, we still see quite a bit of Kittle.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: So this is not saying that, all right, Kraft in
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: is going to mean that there's no Kittle whatsoever. And actually,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: only 48% Kraft is, I wouldn't call it surprising, but
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: we have seen certain stacks in the past few weeks
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: where the tight end gets up to like 70%.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: 75%, I would say we saw before. So now what
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: happens when you put Gibbs in? to the build though.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: Well, so here's this, I think like is really telling.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: So Gibbs only goes up a little bit and we,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: you know, we've also seen that like the, you know,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: the bring back running back has been crazy, crazy high used.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: And consequently we also see McCaffrey actually going up. And
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: so this is, this I think is an artifact of
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: like when people play one type of chalk, they're actually
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: more likely to play the next type of chalk. So
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: someone just going right to love is more likely to
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: go right to McCaffrey. alongside. And so I think a
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: lot of this, so like here you're seeing maybe a
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: Monroe St. Brown will be the most popular bring back
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: just because he saves money over, um, over, uh, Gibbs there.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: So if people are going to just one guy, they're
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: going there. I want to take a look down here.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: So like, this is also telling right. Watson goes to
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: 35% conditional ownership. Here's the big guy. So this is
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: why we put golden and right away, golden goes to
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: 79% conditional ownership. This is also interesting. Jameson Williams, under
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: 10% conditional ownership within the Jordan Love stack and probably
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: the most correlated of all the lines to the Jordan
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: Love stack. Watson was up here, so Watson's 35%.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: So I'm trying to see if there's anybody at like 4,300-ish.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: I guess you could see Godwin just because he's another
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: cheap guy with the Ted Hurst block of those two
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: together for cheap. But this projects pretty close. To what
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: I'm seeing, obviously when you start to swap it around
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: and whatever, but I mean, it all starts with Jordan Love.
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: Like you said, this is one with Love, Golden, Gibbs.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: You've got Woody Marks plugged in. You got the two
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: cheap Tampa Bay guys, which we'll flip these builds to
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: Baker Mayfields later or whatever we want to do there
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: and show how that one looks. This has Kittle because
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: they're not on This still gets Watson in with Jordan
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: Love as well.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: You're still sharing the conditional ownership tool, but I want
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: to point one thing out here. So I went to
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: just San Francisco here.
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: Gotcha.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: And I think this helps tell the story, right? So
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Kittle goes down in conditional ownership. You see the negative 6.3.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: McCaffrey goes up in conditional ownership. Why is that? Because
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: the tight ends from that Detroit Green Bay game are
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: pushing Kittle out and leaving room for McCaffrey.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, which is what we'll wait and see on. That's
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: what I, I don't fully agree with that because I
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: think at the end of the day, when people are
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: sitting with Jordan Love hand builds, And the more we
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: closer we get to Sunday, just wait on the Gibbs stuff.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: But it's like, how are you leaving out there? There
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: is so much value at wide receiver at tight end,
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: double tight end builds everyone. I don't know that people
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: are going to feel comfortable. They also, uh, those watching
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: this show know your flow chart and you know, we
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: can talk more about that. But when Gibbs is on
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: the slate, the answer is usually to play Gibbs. They
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: don't feel like he's the guy that can let them down.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: like a Bijon last week. And I also think some
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: of the stuff that's interesting is like right now, just
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: at running back alone, what are you showing on Bijon
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: for ownership?
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Well, so this is really interesting here. So as soon
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: as I go Love and Hurst, now look at this,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: Gibbs gets all the way up to 37. So it's like,
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: there's this very clear way that people are going to
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: go get to him there. And let's see, what does
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: that do for McCaffrey? So McCaffrey still goes up a
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: little bit. What does that do to tight ends? So
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: now Kraft goes up even higher. Laporta still goes up.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: Kittle does not go down as much anymore. So the
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: Ted Hurst piece really is interesting. So I think in
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: a way we're saying the same thing. You're just talking
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: about a little bit more specific of a build. You're
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: talking about specifically what we have just put on the
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: screen when we've already put Ted Hurst in. We've already
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: put McCaffrey in, then what happens to Kittle? And so
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: let's go take a look at that. So if McCaffrey
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: is also in there, like we're still getting, so what this,
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: what this Delta means. So like you can see 22.9%
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: ownership overall for Gibbs, 20.9 conditional ownership. The reason the
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Delta is positive is because we've just taken a running
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: back slot away. So the, the expected ownership percentage, if
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: all of these decisions are independent has to be lower now.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: And so Gibbs is still getting 3.4 percentage points more
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: conditional ownership than what we would expect if all these
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: decisions were independent. So that's why that delta is still positive.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: So to your point here, it's like, okay, people are
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: recognizing that they can get Gibbs and they're going to
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: try to go get him. But we still see a
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: much larger increase here in conditional ownership for Amon Ross St.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: Brown.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: So I think... And by the way, let's recognize that
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: I'm already projecting Gibbs at more overall ownership than what
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: most of the field is at this point. So I
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: think the conditionals here are, if anything, I think they
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: would be hot on Gibbs, not cold on Gibbs.
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, you're definitely right now higher on Gibbs
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: and I think that's right. So I'm good with that
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: because at the end of the day, I just think
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: the closer we get to it and the more these
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: values pop up, like again, people were in a bubble.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: Some people don't even know that, you know, Christian Kirk
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: is 3,600. It might be the guy. And that's going
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: to move some stuff around where people that'll change some
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: things too. Right. Maybe that's a spot where they're like, Hey,
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: I don't need CMC anymore because that guy's going to
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: get a bunch of work in the slot. He's the
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: guy that basically makes it fit. Right. If we go
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: back over I mean, people can do all kinds of stuff.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: If you actually look at that, I'm just using them
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: for two seconds here, but if you go down to $ 3, 600
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: Christian Kirk, I mean, you can go right back up
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: to Gibbs and CMC with Kittle. I mean, you can
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: change this around some further, but I'm just saying like,
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: that's the whole point of what I'm saying. There's lots
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: of different ways that you can go.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: So let me ask you this. Are you suggesting that
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: people using love might use him with like just golden
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: because they feel so good about some of these other
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: plays on the slate. Or are you saying that like, okay,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: if they're not going to the tight end, that means
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: they're going to go get Christian Watson. They're going to
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: go get, uh, you know, I'm on Ross St. Brown
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: and play it that way instead.
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they're going to, I think it's going to,
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: you'll see some love golden Gibbs, some love golden almond raw.
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: And then I think you'll still see Watson, obviously craft
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: in those lineups for sure. When it gets to doubles
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: is possible. I'm just saying, I don't, I don't think
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: it's the chalk double. Like, I don't think it's the
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: chalk lineup is a double there unless it was something else.
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: I think Kittle still stays in. Maybe there's a two
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: tight end version of it that people like, but for me,
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: I think it's going to look more like this. Got it.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is one of the places where I
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: do think you and I disagree a little bit, which
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: is great. I wish we disagreed more. We just happen
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: to think through a lot of the slides very similarly.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I very much expect a lot of correlation
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: in the chalk build this week because you have this
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: game that I think everyone recognizes if this game hits
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: its ceiling, you're going to need many, many pieces from it.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: You're not going to be able to get away with
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: just love and golden when everybody else also has craft
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: or also has Watson and they have a bring back
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: so on and so forth. So, uh, I, I feel
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: pretty strongly that the, the chalk build, the chalk stack
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: here is Watson golden, probably one more pay up of, uh,
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: or sorry, love golden. And then one more pay up
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: of either, uh, Watson Gibbs, St. Brown, and then one
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: of the tight ends. And I also wouldn't, I wouldn't
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: argue with the chalk build specifically being love, golden, both
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: tight ends from the game, and just doing it from there.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Because then you have all the money in the world
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: to play with to go pay up elsewhere.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a lot of the finality to it
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: all for me, and then we'll get into how we
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: can leverage it, is that I think the chalk build
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: is just love Golden Gibbs with all the other shit
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: we talked about. Kittles, the Hursts at 3K, the Woody
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: Marks at 5,600, whatever D version, whether it's, we can
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: tell you right now, we know all this stuff. So
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: I love this slate. It's Houston. When you go up high,
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: it's Tennessee and it's the Jets, right? So those are
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: the main three. Obviously the other side of that game
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: with the Browns, is a possibility, but perfect segue, Blickle,
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: right there to go to this. Last week in the
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: Ship It Nation Discord, it was quite fun, actually. We
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: had a battle of, do you want to build Cam
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Ward lineups and stack it up and run it back?
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: Or do you want to build, it was almost the
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: same price, by the way, for like triples with a run,
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: like doubles with a run back, sorry, like, you know,
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: three ones of Ward, Robinson, tate and justin or sorry
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: justin doesn't say justin thomas golf streets jonathan taylor different
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: jt but then the other side of it was you
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: could play um watson concepcion boston and derrick henry idea
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: in both games was like no one's really on henry
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: or jt they speed up the game the stack has
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: to come back the other way the argument was that
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: watson runs more And then the argument on the other
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: side was like, yeah, but you know, Ward, if he
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: does have a good game and it's like, this would
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: be the one chance to have it. And you've got
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: Tate already who is so good. It worked out for,
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: for Tate specifically.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously it worked out a lot of different ways.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: Tennessee D was the answer in, in the end. And
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: you know, Cleveland situation, all that. But the funny part
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: is this week they play each other. Yes.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: So they do.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: This game is something else, but I don't know where
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: else you want to go, but I was just going
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: to say to start there for a second, like the
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: battle of the back and forth that it's really, most
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: people are on those defenses. You could play the stacks
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: against it. I think we'll get to that later too.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: Going back to these defenses, you could play the JJ
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: McCarthy stacks this week against the popular Houston defense and
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: still be able to use a popular Woody marks. Like
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: there's a few different ways that you can go this week.
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: Where do you want to start with leveraging the chalk build?
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: if you want to start with like game theory and
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: the ideas first, the good news. And like I said
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: it earlier, just to go quickly is that I like that.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: We know a lot of stuff, right? You usually can
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: say like ownership's off a little this way as I'm
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: sure that's always going to happen, but we kind of
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: know a lot about what's going to happen this week
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: for the common build and how to leverage it and
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: ways to go about it. So give me your thoughts
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: here where you want to start and then we'll get
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: right into all these topics.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: I think the first thing we want to decide is
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: when we're, when we're deviating, especially if we're deviating through
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: a stack, um, do we want to do so by
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: paying up or paying down for that stack?
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: When we're deviating, do you want to pay up or
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: pay down? Well, my, my notes here, just say it again,
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: like this is going to be a unique week, but
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: we know almost all the lineups allow you to fit
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: the pay up running backs. So for me, when I'm
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: looking to do it, like you talk about it, like
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: inverse correlate, like, like how we know how people are playing,
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: but we're just going to play in a different way,
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: but not stupid. Like a quick example is, And again,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: who knows this morning is Lamar 50, 50. I'm really
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: starting to think they don't play him just like maybe
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: it's all talk and I don't know what's going on,
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: but it just the way it looks. But the point being,
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: I don't. think i'll really care and i'll probably still
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: play like a burrow chase higgins maybe zay or andrews
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: or something like that and just hope that it works
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: out because that would force you out of the ability
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: to get to bijan cmc gibbs all together and i'm
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: not saying everyone's playing all three of them but i'm
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: we showed you earlier how you can easily play gibbs
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: we showed even gibbs and cmc you can play cmc
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: bijan whatever you want to you'll talk about there so
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: i'd be more likely to find a stack that involves
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: these expensive receivers. You know, it's, it's not quite expensive,
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: but a little bit, but like the cover boy today, golf,
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: almond rod, JMO. Now what, you know, anything, anything else
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: you want to put in that game? My point being,
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: I'd be much more likely to skip over building just
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: all the cheap wide receiver guys that make it work.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think I'm with you there. And I also
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: think like part of my answer is like, you can
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: do it either way. So because you can do it
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: either way, I think one of the things we want
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: to start with is just, okay, well, let's look at
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: what an expensive stack looks like. And so there, I think,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: let's go CJ Stroud. Let's try to see just what
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: a Stroud, Nico Collins, Malik Neighbors kind of foundation looks like.
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: As you know, I'm always going to want to add
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: another one. So I think there are multiple options. I
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: think the most obvious is you also use likely as
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: a bring back. And you just hope for a game
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: script a lot like last week's where there's just so
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: much pass volume from New York because Houston jumps out
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: to a lead. And if Houston has jumped out to
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: a lead, that means CJ Stroud has hopefully thrown a
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: number of touchdowns and therefore you want Stroud instead of McCarthy.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: So like this to me, I think is a really
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: strong starting point. You're also leveraging all of the chalk
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: tight ends with a tight end who has been outstanding
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: of late in Isaiah likely. So I really like this show. And, um,
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: you know, there are a lot of ways you can
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: go from here. You can play some of the running
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: back chalk. You can continue to get different because like
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: this to me is as high probability of a stack
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: as that green Bay Detroit game. And we'll talk a
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: little bit more there about like why I think that
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: game might fail. But this, this is, I think a
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: really strong start. And like, you don't with, with this
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: start like this, you don't need to feel like, okay,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: I'm already off the board. I'm already making low probability bets.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: So I better surround it with chalk. Like you absolutely can,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: because this is different enough, but, it's also like, I
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: think quite likely to succeed. So if you want to
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: make some other high upside bets within the lineup, I
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: think you can.
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah. This lineup is triple leverage. So I talk about
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: this sometimes it's the triple C as well. It's the
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: contrarian correlated construction. And the reason I say that is
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: because it's contrarian, which I'll get to with the triple
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: leverage in a second. It's very correlated, like can't get
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: much more correlated than this. And it's a roster construction.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: So the composition construction, whatever you want to use, but
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: the reason it's triple leverage is what you talked about.
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: Isaiah likely at tight end versus the most popular tight
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: ends in that range. The guy that was just chalk
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: last week still came through his chalk. Not much else
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: has changed. If anything, the guy that got him the
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: ball at the end, JJ McCarthy is now starting. So
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: like that could make sense, but it's leveraging the tight
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: end chalk. Secondly, It's got Stroud and Nico Collins. By
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: the way, you could put Woody Marks into this. Alex
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: has done extensive research from last season. Not enough people
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: are playing the quarterback with the running back. And when
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: you're already this unique, if you just think Woody Marks
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: is a great option, you could still fit him into this.
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: But we are leveraging Woody Marks in the current shell.
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: Second piece of leverage, right? We're leveraging Woody Marks ownership
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: and saying it's going to be the passing attack instead.
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: And then third, we're leveraging the common build because when
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: you looked at it earlier and we talked now, look,
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: I know some people are going to look at this
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: shell and immediately go plug in Hearst and say, all right,
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: now I can get all those top running back. Like
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: Alex said, fine. But in the current state and the
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: current shell, way less lineups will have to pay up
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: wide receivers and a pay up quarterback. You know, it's
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: not really a pay up quarterback, but the idea of
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: the stack that pays up with him. And it could
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: end up being a more balanced build, et cetera, et cetera.
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: So however you want to fit that last one in,
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: but from a construction piece, it's a leverage piece there
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: where you're not like, again, so many people like will
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: go off the page. Like, well, if everyone's going to
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: do this, I'm just going back to the well with
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: Pennix and London and pits and all this stuff could work.
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying like the idea of like, I could
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: also just do this and I feel way better about it.
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: And it still gets me all the stuff that I'm
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: interested in. And those three angles of attack there. So
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: I really like, this one that you brought up. And
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: I think we added some other points to it that
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: people could find out and go with as well. Anything
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: else on this one? If not, I guess my question
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: would be, let's say this is where we stand for
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: a second before we look, we're going to look at
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: other game stacks for you guys. There's definitely some ones
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: I want to talk about here, but when you do
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: this and you got 5,000 left per player, I guess
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: like people immediately think, Oh yeah, but what about that
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: green Bay Detroit game? How do I handle that? So
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: if I'm asking you and people care about your opinion
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: more than probably others, like that's kind of the thought here. What,
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: what are you thinking here about? Okay. But I don't
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: have green Bay Detroit. How does that register in your brain?
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's, that's the exact next question to answer. I
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: think because if, if this stack is going to win
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: you all of the money, it's not just that you
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: need this stack to do well. but you also then
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: need the Detroit green Bay stack to not go off
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: in addition to this one. And so how do you
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: tell the story of that happening? Well, I think there
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: are a couple of ways you can do that. The
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: first is like, let's just recognize that, Hey, you know what?
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: This green Bay defense has been quite good this year
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: in one specific way. They have been great against the pass.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: They have been very bad against the run. And so
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: like one potential, you know, run out for this game is, well,
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: Detroit just, runs instead. And so I think this is
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: absolutely a spot where you can just use Gibbs. You
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: could even go Gibbs and the Detroit defense. I think the, the,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: maybe even the better option is to say, well, if
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: Gibbs goes off, that doesn't necessarily prevent the green Bay
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: side from going off. It can help slow the game down,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: especially if, you know, if, if he does everything on
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: the ground, but like what if Gibbs breaks a 60 order? Okay.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: Well that actually helped the green Bay, uh, you know,
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: The Green Bay offense. What if Gibbs gets there because
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: he catches eight balls because Detroit is playing catch up
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: and that's the best they can do? Well, that's also
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: telling the story of Green Bay succeeding. So just using
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Gibbs doesn't necessarily leverage this game in any way, shape
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: or form. Using Josh Jacobs absolutely leverages this game because
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: if Josh Jacobs is the one succeeding, he's not breaking
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: off explosives. He's catching passes when Jordan Love is forced
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: to check down instead of throw the ball deep the
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: way he wants to. He's scoring by scoring touchdowns, which
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: takes touchdowns away from Jordan Love and his pass catchers.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: And if you get a scenario where the Green Bay
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: defense looks really good, just like they did against Dallas
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: last week, now Green Bay's offense is in a game
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: script where they're not even trying to be aggressive. They're
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: trying to slow things down. The Detroit guys are failing
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: on the other side of the ball. So I think
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: the ultimate leverage from this game is probably doing something
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: like Josh Jacobs plus the Green Bay DST. And that
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: would be, I think, a really good thing to plug
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: in next to this lineup.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: Man, I pulled up something else because we're going to
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: go there in a second, but somebody did say it earlier.
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: Where was it? In the chat. Let me find it here.
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: Appreciate all the engagement here. If you guys could do
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: us a favor, hit the thumbs up. Make sure you
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: subscribe to the channel. Unless Josh Jacobs says people are
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: forgetting this guy's coming back. I mean, who knows what
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: it's actually going to be like? I'm just saying if
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: it was... Somehow Josh Jacobs of before and an impossible
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: spot here in this green Bay defense. That's why it's disgusting.
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: And that's what I was going to get you to
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: look up quickly. People don't like the Detroit defense because
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: we're targeting them, right? They're horrible.
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: What is Jameer Gibbs with Tennessee defense for a second?
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: I want to see conditional ownership on Jameer Gibbs. I
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: want to see two conditional ownerships with Jameer Gibbs in,
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: so you can try them both first. Do the Titans.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: What do we see?
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: Oh, wait, you want, do you want, Gibson or do
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: you want the Titans in?
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: No, I want Gibson. You got it right. We're seeing
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: two things with Gibson. One is the Titans are massive.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: Pretty neutral.
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: I would say, but over every other D, it's nuts.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: And then the answer to my point, it's all right
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: there in front of us. So I love this thing.
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: 19% rounding up, 3% with the Lions. By the way,
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: they're $ 100 less and would be exactly how you leverage
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: if you're not on love and golden and craft and
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: everything in this game. And even if I think this
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: is right, our guy, the first prophet always comes in.
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: says because the Lions game failed a couple of weeks,
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: people do remember this stuff. And like, well, I just
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: needed Gibbs. My point from earlier in the show, why
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: I think Gibbs will pick up more steam. I think
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: also my initial stuff and even your stuff, I think
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: you'll see by Sunday. I'm not, you know, you're the
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: ownership guy, not me. I'm not like, I got some
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: crystal ball, but I think people aren't going to be
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: as happy with Bijan either at 28. You know what
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: I mean? Like, I don't know if they'll actually fully
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: get there to that because he's the opposite side of CMC.
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: Most people would prefer CMC. What's keeping him bolstered up
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: right now, in my opinion, is that you've got the
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: kiddle ownership and that's like oh i need to have
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: a secondary stack we got to do that you must
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: do it so i think this could be a spot
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: but even if people do go this route with gibbs
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: last time alex's call was you could play the detroit
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: d with him it worked out till like super late
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: in the game i mean it was fine it held.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: Them down it still worked but not it wasn't it
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: wasn't great the way.
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: The ceiling but that's not what you were saying. You
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: were also saying how it can give you composition that
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: gets you different based on how the game could fail.
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: I think even if people do this to the first
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: profits point, you would still be able to like, no
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: one's going to have Detroit defense in there. And there
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: are a hundred bucks less than the chalk. We just
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: saw almost everyone's going to have Titans in that spot.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: Now, While you've got it up, I also want to
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: see just how crazy this is from our point earlier.
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: Like the talking about playing the cheap chalk just to
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: make everything work. How much in Jameer Gibbs lineups is Hurst?
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: It's like you read my mind. You're already literally clicking
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: wide receiver and scrolling down.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: 54 and a half conditional. What did I just, oh,
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: I put them in.
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: You put them in. That's fine.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: 54 and a half conditional.
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: Remember last year, because not everybody, some of you are
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: watching this for the first time and we appreciate you,
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: but just noting it, like we've talked about this. We've
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: been doing this for a while. We do it for PGA,
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: do it for NFL. This is where this really came
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: to fruition for you to create this tool at blicanalytics.com.
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: But if you think about it, Isn't this exactly what
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: you've talked about forever and what we talked about at
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: the top of this show of like the secondary stack?
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: It's not a secondary stack. It's not in the same game.
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: That's why conditional ownership is different. But it's like the
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: minute people are clicking Gibbs, they're clicking Hurst. Or if
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: they've got it really the other way, probably they're clicking
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: Hurst because he's so cheap and like, well, now I
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: can fit Gibbs. And that's why I keep saying I
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: think Gibbs gets boosted up. Obviously, we knew they would
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: be popular together. That's not rocket science. Nothing really is,
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: by the way. But just noting it. it's, it's crazy though,
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: to see that is literally just people saying it might
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: not even be him. It might be Tez Johnson that
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: steps into the Ibuka spot and the role. A lot
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: of people actually think that what's Tez Johnson, 5%, one
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: 10th of the Ted Hearst. And he's what? 200 bucks more.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: You can find 200 bucks. We just found you a hundred,
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: by the way, with the lions deal over the Titans
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: in the Gibbs lineup. So if you're doing all this together,
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: the point is the money sitting right there. So, um,
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: you know, this is another one that comes up. I'll
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: go back now. I appreciate you bringing that up. That's,
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: you know, obviously I wanted to bring it up, but
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: our guy, Jay Steele, awesome. Always supporting. We really appreciate
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: you says, okay, I don't understand something Gibbs at his
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: salary would quote unquote fail if he scored 30 points,
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: but isn't it likely that he would still be RB
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: one at the, at that number and you would still
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: need him. So then did he really fail? How do
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: you answer this one?
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say, uh, he 30 points is absolutely
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: not failing for him. So One way you can think
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: about it is everything is kind of additive. What, what, um,
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: like how, how many points above his expectation would that be? Well,
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: Gibbs is projected. I haven't met 26.9 draft Kings points.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: So like 30 is still outscoring his expectation by a
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: little over three points at, at certain other, you know, uh,
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: positions that's, that's Woody Marks getting to 20. That's Bucky
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: Irving getting to 20. That's Kyron Williams getting to 22
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: or 23 things of that nature. So like, I don't
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: think that him getting 30 would, uh, would be a
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: failure in any way. Now it's not going to help
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: you separate by any means, right? Like if, if you're
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: trying to get Gibbs to be a separator for you,
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: you probably need the 40 point performance, but like, I've
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: gotten him with a 41.6 ceiling and a 47.9 super ceiling.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: I think, if I recall correctly, the ceiling is the
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: average of the player's top 25% simulated scores, and the
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: super ceiling is the average of the player's top 10%
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: simulated scores. So he's in a tier of his own
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: from a ceiling perspective, and that's, I think, what you're
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: paying for if you go there.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And you're hoping for that too. It's like, this
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: is reminds me a little bit of, like I said,
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: just said it earlier. So I might as well go there,
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: but we've done the golf show for quite some time.
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: So PGADFS like, well, Scotty at that price has to win.
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: Absolutely not. Like it's a complete myth. We've looked it
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: up a billion times. It's it all depends on what
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: else everybody does. Last week, you could have said this
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: about Bijan. I honestly don't know if Bijan got to
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: like 25 last week, if it still would have been needed.
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: You still had Hubbard at that number. You had guys
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: like Corum getting 14 or 15. You had other ways
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: that you could have got there last week. So you
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: just never know. It's how the rest of the slate
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: plays out. But when you're building, you're building for... the
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: chance to win a tournament. So it's like, you can't
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: just say if he gets 30, that's good enough and
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: move on. You can't just say at 9,800, he needs
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: four X his salary, or it's a bust. Some, I mean,
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: we saw it last year in Millie makers. People would
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: play Gino Smith. I always use this one, but it's
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: a good one. Gino Smith, Trey Tucker, Jacoby Myers, and
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: Bowers one week. It was extremely affordable across the board.
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: Myers was the wide receiver one and only got nine points.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: Bowers was the tight end one and only got nine points,
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: but Trey Tucker got you 43 and the correlation was
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: playing all four together and taking it as a block,
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: not necessarily as just the one piece. Or if those
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: guys don't get me four, they only got you 1.5
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: X or 1.25 X, but thankfully Trey Tucker got you
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: 12 X or whatever the hell it worked out to
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: at his cheap price tag. So you can make it
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: up in other spots and that sort of thing. Disagree
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: on this. Well, we are definitely gonna have the Puka conversation,
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: but nobody wants these guys. No, that's what we're talking about.
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: We just showed you the chalk build, all the different builds.
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: Like yes, Jefferson in a Kyler build will be popular.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: London could still get something. But I mean, as far
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: as like these guys versus the running backs, at the
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: same price points, way more people are going to the
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: running backs. And it's because we have the cheap chalk
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: we talked about with Hearst and guys like that, that
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: we'll get to. So definitely think people are going to
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: be stacking still. And I think, you know, when you
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: get to the green Bay Detroit game stacks, I think I,
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: like I said it earlier, I like the cover boy.
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: I like going with the golf almond rod JMO. Like
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: you talked about earlier, things like that as a way
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: to leverage it and just get different. And then you
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: can still get away with, you know, not being on
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: Gibbs or, maybe skipping out on golden if you want
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: i think like a guy like um you know watson
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: or craft or whatever you want to go there could
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: really speed that game up and make it work so
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: um what else what else do we got to talk
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: about here puka is a conversation in itself you said
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: the san francisco conversation further so go.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Ahead i want to talk i want to talk about
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: san francisco before we talk about puka because i think
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: it kind of sets the stage for the the puka
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: conversation um is there anything more on on stacks that
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: you want to talk through any other stacks you want
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: to talk through there's There's one other one, but you know,
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: it's going to be my leverage lane.
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: So yeah, we don't need to talk about that one then,
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: but I was going to say, um, what did we
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: talk about earlier? The Cleveland Tennessee game because of, uh,
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: you know, the Watson versus ward, the, the chat, the,
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: the ship at discord was wanting to have that conversation
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: because they, they know that you liked ward last week.
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: And now Watson, like nobody won, by the way. The
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: bottom line of that game or the spoiler to it
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: all was that the answer was nobody won. They're both losers.
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: But any thoughts on that? And then I do have
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: one more I want to talk about quickly.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the Cleveland side is, I think, really
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: interesting because you have a Cleveland offense who's been near
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: the top in pass rate over expectation, more so just
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: because they can't run the ball than anything else. But
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: then you also have them matched up with a Tennessee
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: defense that's bottom three in past DVOA. So you get
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: a team that's going to throw the ball a lot.
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: You get them facing a defense that doesn't defend the
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: pass well. And Cleveland's offense, is their passing game good? No.
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: But they've still been plus 7% past DVOA. So they're capable.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: They should be throwing a lot. And you get Denzel Boston, who's,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: let's see, fourth in the percent of his team's air yards. The.
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: 62 weighted opportunity rating, 16.1 yard average at the target.
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: That's really interesting. You get Casey Concepcion, who's showing like
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: 22-ish percent target share. A lot of stuff designed for him.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: So you have like the floor of, you know, these
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: design targets are going to him. And then it's just,
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: can he create a few extra splash plays on top
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: of that? So there's a lot I like on that
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: side of the ball. And then you flip it around,
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: you get a Cleveland defense that's playing a lot of
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: single high. And you get Carnell Tate, who's number one
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: in the NFL in the percentage of his team's air yards.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: The only guy with over 50% of his team's air
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: yards at 50.8%. And who's behind him there? It's JSN, London, Boston, Olave,
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Parker Washington, Matthew Golden, Garrett Wilson,
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: CeeDee Lamb as the top 11. Those are the names
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: that he's not just up with, but he's literally leading.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: The downside is, the catchable air yards for both of
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: these guys are under 50%. You compare that to JSN
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: at 83% London, 63% Olave and Evans, 65 and 66.
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: So like, yeah, the downside is very clear and obvious.
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: They don't have good quarterbacks and they're not as good
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: as the other guys who are, who are dominating the
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: share of air yards like this. But at the same time,
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: it's like, yeah, but that's why these guys are in
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: the five Ks and not seven K eight K like
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: these other guys. So, There's a lot of upside through
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: this game. And the nice thing about these wide receivers,
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: as we have mentioned a couple of times now over
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: the last few weeks is like when they hit that
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: in and of itself was pretty much bringing the quarterback
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: with them. It's not bringing the quarterback with them to
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: a score that like you need to have, or that's
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: going to help you separate, but it's bringing them to
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: a score that is absolutely good enough such that the
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: savings you've just provided can go get the, the, you know,
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: the actual separators in your lineup and they can go
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: win the thing. Right.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: And so the answer to this is no. Savion Williams
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: is not a, not a lock. We can say that much.
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, profits going back and forth here. Obviously.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: If you're playing five or six pieces from this game,
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: that's definitely a way in the green Bay Detroit game
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: to get unique. We talk, I've been saying it all
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: show like about like the golf. If you go to
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: the golf side, I can go golf, almond raw JMO.
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: Kraft and somebody else. You know what I mean? That's
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: how you can get different. If you want to put
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: Josh Jacobs into the stack and run at the other
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: side where most people are going Love, Golden, and somebody else,
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: Watson or Kraft with Gibbs, you can flip it and
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: go Goff, Amonra, Jamo with Josh Jacobs. And the money
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: that you pick up there now actually allows you so
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: you might not have to punt to these cheap guys
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: and all that type of stuff. But to your point earlier,
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: you're getting... 10 to 15% on a lot of those
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: high end wide receivers this week. Cause people just have
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: no need to go there or feel as though they
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: have no need to go there. The one thing that
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: did come up though, and I think it's important to
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: talk about quickly is just the Baker side of this
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: game because, um, you know, we have Tet and Coker
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: who people like Hubbard, by the way, has still been
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: just fine. I know. Um, what's his, who came back
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: last week? ETN Trevor. Yeah. Yeah, it's like whatever like that.
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: It slightly matters for projections and things, of course. But
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: I'm saying like at the end of the day, I
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: get really mattered as much for him.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: I think Dylan is also back this week. But yeah,
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: Hubbard should still get the majority of the work.
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And he's not even the guy I think most
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: people are thinking about here or their favorite in this spot.
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: But just to note it, because you're already pretty much
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: different when you're stacking. Let's say you're going Bryce Young
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: with Tet Coker. And Hurst. Well, at least that could
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: be a little, I don't know how often, again, that'll
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: be popular if people are doing it, but I'm saying overall,
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: you can probably get away with that, especially in a
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: smaller field or something like that. But the Baker side
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: is interesting. The chat asked about Godwin as well. So
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: what's your thoughts here on like Baker, Godwin, Hurst, you know,
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: pick one, Tet, Oaker. We've been stacking all year, obviously
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: running these three ones and things like that. But what's
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: your thoughts on that?
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: It's definitely something that I want to look into. I think,
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: you know, from a GPP score perspective, like Baker's among
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: the worst and Hurst is among the worst, but Hurst.
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: Is the worst. That's going to be going back to
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: hot people.
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: It's, it's a very unique thought. Now I have Baker
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: projected at like 8%. So I think that's, you know,
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: more than most, but it's not like he's going to
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: steam out of this world or anything. If I, I
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: will say this, like, if you play it, I think
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: the worst way to play it is with Kate Otten.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: The best way to play it is just go with
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: both receivers. Go Hurst and Tez Johnson because that's where
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: the explosives are going to lie if they lie anywhere.
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: Or you could even triple. You could throw Bucky or
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: Otten in there, but I think you want both receivers,
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: particularly Tez Johnson because Tez is the most likely guy
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: to get the big play. That's something that I want
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: to sim because if you're doing that, you're pretty much
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: doing that so you can go get more studs than
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: any else can. Like it, you know, that's so you
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: can get both Gibbs and McAfee or both Gibbs and
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: Bajon Robinson and Brock Bowers or a stud receiver, so
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: on and so forth. And so, um, if, if that
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: is actually something that is, um, solid and smart and
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: not just like, Oh, this looks fun on paper. Uh,
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: it's hard for me to kind of think that through myself.
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: Cause I essentially like what that is doing is sure
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: you have a lot of correlation there, but the way
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: you're trying to separate from the field is by making
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: like four independent bets with Gibbs, Bajon, Jamar chase, whoever else, uh,
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: you know, whatever studs you're using, you're, you're making independent
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: bets that all of those studs have ceiling games. So
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: otherwise someone else has a decent chance of having the
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: same combination of of the ceilings, if like only two
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: of those four go off. And so, um, that's something
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: I want to SIM to get a better sense of like,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: is this actually smarter? Is this just, uh, you know,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: just chasing ceiling games at a rate that is, is
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: unlikely to actually hit.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: So, um, This is another take I've got for sure
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: that Baker's ownership is definitely going up when we get
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: closer to Sunday. Cause again, once, but to Alex's point,
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: that's what I, again, this is classic, not showdown, but
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: it's like, it reminds me, I got a couple of
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: tangents quickly. It reminds me in showdown when people were like, Oh,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: Sav Williams is 200 bucks. Let me just put them
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: in the captain so I can fit everybody that, you know,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: the best guys on the slate. Like it's horrible. Yes,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: it makes it work. And I mean, if you're in
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: a 10 man, maybe because maybe, but then honestly, anything
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: that can flip, he's 200 bucks can just put them
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: in the flex and put the guy that actually scores
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: all the points with the raw score up top. So
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: to me, it's very rare. Is that a good idea?
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: In this case, even when you go that route, I'd
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: want like a, I'd want them all if I was
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: doing it. I want like, or at least the majority.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: I want like Baker, Godwin, Tez, Otten, or Hurst, or
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: whatever you choose. Like I want that. I want Tet
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: on the other side and then see where I land
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: as opposed to like most people are just going to
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: pick Baker, Hurst, coker or something. And then they'd be like, Oh,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: I can get Bijan. I can get CMC. I can
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: get Kittle. I can get that. You got all the
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: same stuff just in a slightly different way. You're not
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: again in classic, less likely to be duped, but we've
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: talked about this a billion times where it's like, it's
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: you're backing yourself into a very tight corner where you
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: really have to thread the needle to get out of
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: that corner. It's going to be, you know, take a
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: lot more luck than you would think in that position.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: Then you should have to put yourself in. The second
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: one was from our guy, Sully. This, we had a
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: good talk about this pre-show and another golf analogy for those,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: but it really works in this case. I think enough
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: people understand the concept, even if they don't play PGA DFS, JJ,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: this guy, JJ McCarthy's put what I think was two
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: 43 in the fourth quarter yards, something insane like that.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: And we watched the tape, everything looked good. People saw it.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: It reminds me of in PGA DFS, when somebody gains
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: five strokes with the putter in round two or round three,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: and they're like, well, no way to play him in
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: the next round. He's not going to do that again.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: You're probably right. It's very unlikely someone's going to gain
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: five strokes again with the putter the next round. But
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: if the ball striking and the other stuff was still
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: good and all that's there, it's like, what if he
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: only gains one and a half and everything's still good?
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: He probably is. And his price, by the way, is
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: still baked in. He's still affordable. So it's like you
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: can still use him. And honestly, some people are moving
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: away because it won't happen again. I'm not like, listen,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: JJ McCarthy might throw for 250 total this Sunday. But
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: he might also run one into the goal line and
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: hit neighbors and likely for a ton of catches because
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: it's a completely tight offense. And by the way, it's
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: going up against a very popular defense. And when people
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: are paying up this week, they're going to the Texans.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: It's a way that you could still use Woody Marks,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: who's popular, and say, OK, I'm going to build around that.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: It's a way you could build differently and fade the
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: Houston D, fade Woody Marks. Play JJ, neighbors, Nico, and likely.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: It's just a flip of the shell we had on
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: the screen earlier and you can still play it differently.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: So that is a way on this slate that you
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: can play to get different and be able to do it.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: So I definitely think, and we know Stroud on the
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: other side of that game is good enough. We talked
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: about a shell with him earlier. We know he's good
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: enough to keep this game moving back and forth. It's
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: just really what does JJ McCarthy do? But for people
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: to say like, Well, he ain't throwing for 243 in
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: a quarter again. Great. Yeah, that's probably not rocket science.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: Go look at his over-under for the whole game this week.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: It's like, that's the whole point. But he could still
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: have a good game and enough and bring the guys
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: along because it's condensed there and then make it work
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: for the Woody Marks or the Collins or something like
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: that that makes everything else move. So there's definitely opportunity
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: when there's something like that on a slate like this.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: Anything else you want to talk about there?
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, my only hesitation is like, he actually looked kind
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: of bad. I know the numbers looked good, but he
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: had a 13% charted interception-worthy rate by FTN that game.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: So for context, Jameis Winston is at 3.8% on the season.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: He was at 13% last game. He really, really benefited
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: from a game script where like, yeah, there's no downside
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: whatsoever to what you do. Just go chuck it as
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: much as you can and see what happens. it also
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: happened to be against one of the worst past defenses
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: in the league in an uptempo environment. This is a
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: totally different spot for him. I, as, as we built earlier,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: like on, you know, the Houston bill, like I do
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: think McCarthy stuff is viable, but I also think like
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: if you're playing McCarthy stuff, you shouldn't be playing it
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: because you thought he looked good last week. You should
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: be playing it because this is a team that they, they're, really,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: really unlikely to be able to get anything going on
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: the ground. They're likely to be trailing. You're going to
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: get a game script that is probably conducive of a
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: lot of pass volume. And most importantly, when they have
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: any modicum of success through the air, you know it's
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: going to one of two guys for the most part
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: in neighbors and likely so. That's, I think, the argument.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: It's not that, hey, he looked good last week, so
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: I want to jump back in because it's just a totally,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: totally different environment for his likelihood of success.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: And that my friends is why the Texas defense are popular.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: It was also a very good reason for that without
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: saying it outright. And the second part of it is
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: also why. I like the Stroud side side of that
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: build a lot more, even in what we've talked about
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: a ton. And your data is shown where it's like
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: a Stroud Nico with two giants. It's saying like, look,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: McCarthy might throw some picks. It's fine. Like as long
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: as he can just keep it moving so that Stroud
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: stuff works and then it goes back and forth. At
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: least we know it's condensed on that side, but also
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: those two guys alone, like likely and neighbors are, could
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: catch 20 balls and you still don't need like total
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: combined 20 balls, 10 each. And you still don't need
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: McCarthy because it's just yardage only for him there or
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: something like that. And it's just a lot of catches
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: and points that way. But Stroud and Collins have a
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: two touchdown game with the 300 yard bonus, a hundred
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: yard bonus, et cetera, et cetera. So there's lots of
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: ways that you can do that there.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: Anything else I'm thinking about there that we can talk
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: about Ravens Bengals. Last one I had in mind, just
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: anything to go to there. Yeah.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, I like chase. I like Higgins. I like flowers.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: I think we really need the Lamar news before we
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: can make any, any decisions there. I will say if
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: Lamar plays number one, I think that means that he's
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: pretty much fully healthy. It very much seems like he, uh,
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: he will not play if, if he's not fully healthy.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: And if he is playing like, we should have interest
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: there because that, that game environment suddenly becomes one of
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: the better ones. Uh, the, the last thing I think is,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: I think it's worth talking about how that Detroit green
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: Bay game fails just a little bit more already kind
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: of mentioned a little bit in the sense that like
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: the green Bay pass defense is quite good. Uh, they
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: have the second best pass TV away on the slate,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: only a little bit behind Minnesota's defense. So you already
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: have that path, but to me, it's more about the
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: fact that the way green Bay is succeeding, uh, is
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: actually a similar route to how Minnesota is succeeding where
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: like they're showing a ton of pressure. And now they're
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: not sending that pressure anywhere near as often as Flores,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: but they're making it really hard to know where the
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: pressure is coming from. Sometimes they're dropping, sometimes they're pressuring
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: and they're creating a really nice pressure rate from that.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: And golf has been one of the most pressure sensitive
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks in the league for years now. So, I do
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: think there's like a very clear path to how Detroit fails.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: There's not as clear of a path to how green
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: Bay fails, which is why I do think like the
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: only way the green Bay passing stuff does fail is if,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: if branch returning for Detroit actually really helps Detroit in
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: the explosives department that they're giving up. Cause that's, that's
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: been like the, at least one of the biggest issues
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: for them is that they just give up a lot
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: of explosives and obviously explosives create fantasy production. That's where
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: I think Branch can maybe make the biggest impact. Other
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: than that, you're just not getting a huge impact from
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: somebody who plays his position. So there's that. And then
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: I think it's just game script. It's just what does
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: the Green Bay offense want to do? If the Green
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: Bay defense is really succeeding, then the job of the
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: Green Bay offense is not to go create explosives. It's
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: let's just preserve this advantage. Maybe they can find a
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: little bit more success on the ground with Jacobs. So
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: I thought that was kind of just necessarily talk through
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: because it's, this is obviously a really important game to
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: get right. And one of the reasons why it's so
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: important to get this game right is because unlike the
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: last few weeks, like this time around, if this game succeeds,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: it's going to be really, really difficult to beat the
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: green Bay Detroit lineups, because I think it's very unlikely
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: that all of the pieces that people are going to
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: be using in order to fit this game fail. It's
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: like that they're, they're much better cheap chalk pieces than
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: what we've seen. So if, if this game hits, you
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: probably need it. Yeah.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: And I think it's always interesting just like from a
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: projection standpoint, like I would say, like start with a
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: really good set of projections ownership, and then you can
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: work from there, but from like a. situational factor of
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: this josh jacobs thing you've brought up and the chat
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: brought it up and it's been mentioned enough i think
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: just people would say there's no way it can happen
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: but it's like it's a three-point spread huge total it
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: it's not like the again lines pasty horrible not like
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: the rush d has been phenomenal or something though it's
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: yeah it's been better than their pasty but it's just
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: the game script and the game flow and how it
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: goes right? If, if the Packers are up early and
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: often and running and you get down there and it
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: ends up being like, welcome back, or we got to
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: get Jacobs back in the mix or whatever that looks like. Well,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: then lions are going to be forced to pass. Doesn't
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: mean Gibbs is out of the game flow. It's Gibbs.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: He's going to still be in there, but now you
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: can start to see where guys like Amin Ra, Jamison Williams, Laporta,
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: just start picking it up and chopping it up on
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: the back, you know, on that side and get one
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: of those really big back and forth games. So yeah,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: I like that quite a bit. I don't think there's
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: too much else. Like I said, waiting on the Lamar news,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: the chat talked about it. We got to wait and
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: see on that. The interesting thing about the Ravens, obviously
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: needing any, all the wins they can get, especially in
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: one like this, it's an AFC North battle. You're going
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: to want to pick up that win against the Bengals,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: but they also play the bills next week and Josh Allen.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: And so, you know, it's tough to say what they're
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: going to do with Lamar as of this morning, it
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: says he's 50, 50 was trending in the right way,
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: but we'll, we'll have to see. But Um, yeah, lots
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: of different ways you can go on this slate. Let's
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: have the Puka conversation. Then we'll have the 49ers conversation.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: We'll see if there's any other questions along the way,
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: and then we can wrap up unless you got anything
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: else you want to add. Yeah.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: I think it makes a little bit more sense to
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: start with, uh, with the San Francisco conversation because I,
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: I've got some data for you guys and specifically it's
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: the on-off splits for Mike Evans. And if you just
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: look at full drives outside of blowouts, so outside of,
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: you know, garbage time, essentially. Mike Evans on the field
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: versus Mike Evans off the field last three years. His
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: teams have performed. Wow, that's nice from Yobi Trice there.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: So wait, boys, it's downhill since week one.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: We'll get that in a sec.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: You go ahead. Yobi Trice is the man.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: We'll hook him up in a second. Let's go.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: This bright orange thing just showed off my screen. It
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: was distracting, but in a very good way. So with
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: Mike Evans on the field versus Mike Evans off the field,
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: we're talking about like a 0.31 EPA per play difference
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: for context of how large that is. That is the
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: San Francisco offense this year, number one in EPA per play,
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: number one in DVOA versus the Cleveland offense this year.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: That's how large that drop is from Mike Evans on
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: the field to Mike Evans off the field. Point being,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: do we know that the volume is going to be
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: nice for McCaffrey and Kittle? Yeah, it absolutely should be.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: do we know that San Francisco is going to be
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: able to turn that volume into success? My argument is no,
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: we absolutely do not. Because even though like I have
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: more faith in the San Francisco offense and Kyle Shanahan
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: to have success without Mike Evans than I did, you know,
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: the Baker Mayfield Bucks, for example, we're still seeing the
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: same thing. Think about how different that San Francisco offense
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: looked in the second half last week compared to the
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: first half. It's really, really hard. to succeed without your
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: alpha wide receiver. We've seen that kind of around the league.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: It's not just a Mike Evans effect. It's an all
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: wide receiver one effect, but it's been especially true with
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: Mike Evans. Cause I don't think people quite realize like
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: how damn effective he is when they need a 20
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: yard reception. They got a 20 yard reception basically whenever
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: they wanted simply by targeting Mike Evans on the field. And, uh,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: and that is a huge variable that's missing. And not
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: only that, but like the way the defenses have to
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: prevent things downfield for Mike Evans is which opens up
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: things underneath for McCaffrey and Kittle, like you, you don't
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: have that anymore. So now they can be more aggressive defensively,
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: get up near the line of scrimmage. And now the
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: yak opportunities go down for those guys. So I do
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: think we should be wary of the fact that like,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: I think there's a pretty high probability that, you know,
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: McCaffrey catches six to eight balls or something, but he
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: doesn't have the same touch and equity. He usually has
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: the explosives aren't anywhere to be seen. The yards per
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: reception isn't as high. And same idea for Kittle, where
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: I think you could argue their floor is really helped
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: by no Evans, but I would almost think that their
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: ceiling is actually hurt by no Evans. So to me,
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: I think both are going to be a little bit overrun.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: A lot of leverage just in that alone. It's not
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: called leverage lane for no reason, but you think about it. It's,
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: we know McCaffrey, we know Kittle. Those guys are definitely,
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, look, they still got almost a 27 point
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: team total on the road. I mean, you just sold
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: me on betting the under by the way, because also
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: these guys just catch passes over the middle and fall.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: Like you said, you know, it's salt and wound by
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: the way, because I had like 25% Mike Evans captain
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: in that game. The buddy had 94 yards at the half.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: He was doing whatever he wanted. That doesn't exist right now.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: And look, a lot of cases can be made, but
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: the cases that are being made is like Christian Kirk
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: and cooks. One of them is going to be in
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: the slot and pick it all up. Okay. Like slot catch,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: move on. Now those can add up as those guys,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: I guess like a Watkins at 3,300 or a Kirk
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: or someone that you want to use there as a one-off.
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: And you you're saying it's going to take away from
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: those other guys, but also make up for a, uh, Hurst,
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: who might be better off or suited in something like
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: a game stack or somewhere, if he actually hits the ceiling, $ 5, 500
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: Baker probably has a pretty good game, et cetera, et cetera.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: Like then I don't have any problem with it, but
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: we know CMC, Dijon and Kittle are all getting ownership here.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: Drake London. I said earlier, it's not like he's getting
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: a ton of popularity, but I could see 10 to
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: 15% range, right? He's not getting the same ownership as
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: he's running backs at those price tags. It's like, it's,
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: it's obvious. Look at CMC is 7,600 at the running
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: back position, pushing 30 and who knows in high stakes.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: And then you get Drake London 10 to 15 for
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: a hundred bucks, less different position, totally get it. But
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: that's a product of the slate. We talked about it
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: earlier where people are going, what their constructions look like.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: So that game, um, alone is, It's somebody said earlier,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: but like we, everyone's talking about how does green Bay
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: Detroit fail? It matters that that conversation matters a ton.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: So we had it earlier, but so did that conversation
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: you just put out there because now it's looking at it.
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: Like if this one fails, there's so many lines, go
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: look at your line. Everybody that builds early, go look
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: at all your lineups and see is how many lineups
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: don't have at least one of Kittle CMC or Bijan
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: right now. And I'm guessing at least one of those
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: guys is in your lineups. It's not saying they shouldn't be.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: It's noting how it could fail. No one's talking about
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: how that could fail as much as they're talking about
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: how Green Bay, Detroit has to fail. But there's definitely
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: a ton of lineups. And this is kicking off the slate, right?
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: Like 49ers, Falcons, that's the first thing. So we'll see
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: how it actually shakes out. I think that's quite interesting.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: What else with the Puka conversation and that Rams game
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: just in general, is there any thoughts there? Interesting, I
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: guess enough. It's like they also have a 26 point
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: team total. on the road. I get the hookah news
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: is quite important, but it doesn't seem like many want
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: to play any of this stuff this week after everybody
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: wanted that last week, by the way, last week, it
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: was like cousins, um, you know, Meyer lineups that you
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: could get to Tucker, the late game heroics that boosted
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: them even further. So I think last week it was
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: like cousins, Meyer, Tucker, and then the opposite side of
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: that game with what was it?
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: Walker.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: Like that was a pretty good three one. Um, From
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: last week, you could do something like that this week too.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying it's going to be another game like
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: that for Tucker, but it doesn't seem like anybody wants
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: Brock Bowers and Williams is kind of sitting there at
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: 7K flat. That's, you know, how many people want that?
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: So I will say he could be an interesting pivot
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: from CMC. I know we like the quorum stuff. I'm
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: just saying, and when you look at the price points
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: and the way the slate sets up, Bijan, 8,700 last week,
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: Walker in the afternoon, 8,500. Unfortunately, Kyron Williams is not
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: Kenneth Walker, the third. But if you think about what
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: you just said, if people are sitting there and CMC
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: is the guy that fails them in the morning, there
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: could be some people that are wishing they had Williams
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: going up against the look, the defense that Kenneth Walker,
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: the third just smashed and other teams have as well.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: And there still is the same 26, 27 point team
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: total on the road for the Rams in the afternoon,
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: not that far away for the Rams to go play
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: the Raiders either. So there's a lot of thoughts here,
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: I think, but give me your Puka thoughts, anything else
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: within this game, and then we'll get to our leverage
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: lanes for the week. Yeah.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: Real quick. I love the comment in chat. Any game
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: involving the Falcons can fail in numerous ways. Yes, it can.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: That is, it's absolutely true. As far as Puka is concerned,
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: like the reason I wanted to talk through the Mike Evans,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: San Francisco stuff first is because We might have a
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: very similar situation here. We might even have like a
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: double situation here in Los Angeles where if Puka doesn't go,
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: the Rams are without Adams and Puka. Yeah, they're going
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: to get a ton of ownership as a result because
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: there's a massive amount of usage to therefore go to
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: the passing game. But like, how do the Rams have
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: success through the air? They won't have any receivers who
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: are typically capable of earning like a single target, let
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: alone doing stuff downfield. Are they going to have to
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: do everything through the running backs? Are they going to
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: have to do everything through the tight ends? it just
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: becomes a really weird situation there where I would very
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: much caution against, you know, projecting success. This is an
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: offense already, by the way, that like they had Adams
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: for some of that game last week, they had Puka
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: for all of that game last week and they didn't
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: have offensive success against the Arizona Cardinals who have one
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: of the worst passing DVO ways in the league. So it's,
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: it's like, to me, they're just sirens going off of
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: be very, very careful of, of how much you lean
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: into these injury situations because offenses still need to have
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: some level of success to create fantasy points for their guys.
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: And with the Rams, especially, I don't know where it
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: comes from other than on the ground. And so like,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: to me, like the guy who would probably get the
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: biggest boost would actually be Kyron Williams. If there's no Puka,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: because I think the passing game would a lot would
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: look a lot like Stafford drops back. Stafford looks down
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: the field, says there's not a damn guy down the
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: field I want to throw the ball to and checks
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: down to Kyron. And you get, you know, the kind
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: of Kyron game that he had against Philly where there's
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: just nothing downfield. So Kyron just gets peppered with those checkdowns.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: And as we talked about earlier, like that's the game
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: script where Kyron is going to be on the field
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: a hell of a lot more than Coram anyway.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: And that holds true to like what we just talked
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: about previous or what I mentioned there is like, if
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: you do get that news early again, will Kyron get steam? Yes.
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: Because obviously it makes sense now and all of that,
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: but I don't think people would go away from CMC
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: for him. It would be a thought process more of
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: like how do those lineups look? And then Mumpfield gets
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: the pickup because people, you know, know that Hearst is
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: right there and now they can play Mumpfield instead. You'll
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: see how it goes when we get there, but got
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: to bring this back up from our man. You'll be
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: try says boys. It's been downhill since week one, by
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: the way, week one, It is what it is. Downhill
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: is not ideal. I get it. But week one gets
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: an FFWC seat. It's going to Miami already. So hopefully
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: you pick it back up there. Yobi Trice, if nothing else, says,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: I got cocky with using Young and Coker. And now
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: I'm doing things like using, he says, McVay. I think
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: he's talking about McKee from last week as his quarterback.
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: Oh.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: He's definitely not using McVay as his quarterback. He's talking
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: about McKee. He said, I don't even know if that's
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: how you spell it, but I used him. I don't
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: have a question. And he loves Titletown. So he just says, Zach,
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: question mark. So, Yobe, you're the man. We appreciate you. But,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: you know, he comes back around again here. Higby stack
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: with Otten. Now he has a question. Now, see, I'm
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: doing it again. He says, Higby stack with Otten if
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: Nakua is out. Do you have a Higby or Parkinson preference?
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: They're 500 bucks apart.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Higby. Even with more ownership, he's the one who's
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: getting the higher value targets. Parkinson's been targeted in the
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: red zone a decent amount, so at least you get
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: that with him. But if Parkinson doesn't score, you're not
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: going to get anything usable from him. Whereas Higby can score,
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: but even if he doesn't, you still might get 10
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: to 15 just on receptions and yards alone. So I
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: definitely prefer him and think he has a much better
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: ceiling as well. But, man, I... Once you hear my
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: leverage lane, you'll know why I'm, I'm like, I'm, I'm
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: just not super into either of those guys.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: You gotta be careful too, because you never know when
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: they're going to want to run a tush push with
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: Davis Allen or whatever the hell that was. They try
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: to do their own version of it. I'm like, I'll
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: still never forget this. Cause it was hilarious. The commentators
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: on that one, I forget who it was, but like, yeah,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: That sounds like a situation where it was a good
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: idea on Wednesday at practice, and Davis Allen was like, yeah,
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: I can do this. And then he gets to the game,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: and it's like, oh, shit, and he just can't do it. Like,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: there's no chance. It was the worst, you know, whatever
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: you want to call it, like the worst trial that
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: they ran there, and it just did not work out.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: So pretty much hilarious based off of that. And, yeah,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: Brewers are winning. Chad talking about title. Our guy Nades,
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: both those guys, big Brew crew fans. Brewers got the
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: job done last night. It's a cool story. Won nothing.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: in the series.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I've got one more before we, before we move
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: on to, to leverage lanes. I've got one more thought
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: on the, on the Tampa stack.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: I'd never stop you.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I just, I just had this thought. So like
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: we've got a comment from EWW. I don't, I don't
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: know how to pronounce that, that handle, but Baker on
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: Hearst for all the cash. So one interesting thing here
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: is like, let's separate what, what you're asking Hearst and
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: Otten to do. If you use them as one offs
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: versus what you're asking them to do, if you use
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: them as part of a stack. And using them as one-offs,
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: like the difference between, let's say, Hurst getting, I don't know,
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: 10 DraftKings points and 14 DraftKings points, kind of meaningless, right?
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: Like you're already asking others to separate for you. You're
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: not asking Hurst to go win you the slate. Same
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: thing with Otten. If he gets you 10 versus if
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: he gets you 14, doesn't really matter. As soon as
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: you use them as part of the stack, so much
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: of winning tournaments is getting the stack to really elevate
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: over their expectations. So if you're using Otten and Hurst separately,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: as one-offs and they just performed to expectation, that's fine.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: That's good enough that they did their job in your lineup.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: If you're using them as a stack and they performed
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: to expectations, that's not good enough. Now your lineup is
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: way behind all of the lineups that had a stack
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: really go off and outperform their own expectations. And so
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: I think it's, it's a nice thought. And again, like
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: this is why if you're going to Baker, I think
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: you really want to go to Tez because Tez is
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: the one who can really help this stack as a
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: whole perform over expectations because he can get like one
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: 60 yard touchdown or something like that. But I think
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: that's just something to really think through. Like, what are,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: what are you asking of this player? What does a
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: successful outcome look like for this player? And as soon
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: as you turn it into your stack, which is like the,
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: the primary tool that we have to create separation of
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: our opponents. Now you're asking something totally different. Yeah.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: I like that call. I like the Tez thought there,
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: how you can open it up. And obviously I think
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: you said it earlier though, like a Baker Tez call,
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: Baker Tez Hurst. And they're just become a $ 6, 200 player.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: And you're like, that's how it's going to happen. And
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: you avoid, we didn't talk a lot about it, but
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: I think obviously Godwin will get some ownership at his
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: price based on like Buka being out people landing in
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: that stack and all that. So a way to get
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: different would be something like that. And I like the
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: breakdown of like the one-off versus the stack. So yeah,
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: try and talk that out, talk that out a little
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: bit here on a lot of different cases, but give
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: us your leverage lane for the week. You've been holding
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: it back. I'm so curious to hear what it is
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: for this week. So Take us away.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: Well, that's, that's because throughout the, throughout the show, like
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: I basically been going back and forth between three things. There,
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: there are literally three options. I've already talked through two
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: of them, so I'm not going to make either than
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: my leverage lane, but I, I was toying with some
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: Cleveland stuff. I was toying with, with some Josh Jacobs,
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: Packers stuff, things of that nature, but my leverage lane
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: is going to be Brock Bowers. And yeah, I think
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: a lot of this just comes from like, I was
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: thinking about, you know, our conversation earlier where we're going
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: through with the, what the chalk build looks like and
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: how many really, really easy good things there are for
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: the field to do that lands on some kind of
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: affordable tight end, whether it's Kittle at like the, you know,
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: the highest end range, most likely I think it's landing
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: on Laporta or craft or Higby or Otten. Like there
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: are so many, things that the field can do by
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: going to one of these cheaper tight ends. It just
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: feels a little bit, uh, it feels a little too
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: much to me, like trying to out predict everybody else
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: about what's going to happen when all these things are
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: fairly likely to happen to just play into that kind
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: of build. So what's a lever that we can pull
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: that puts us on a con like a totally different
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: roster construction than what everybody else has pay all the
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: way up at tight end. And guess what? We get
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: to do that with one of the best players in
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: the NFL and one of the best fantasy producers who
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's been in a great spot yet
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: this season. And I don't think that we've seen anything
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: close to what his real ceiling is yet this season.
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: And yet it's like it's very clear that his role
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: in this offense, the efficiency with Kubiak at the helm
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: does seem like he's going to be a better producer
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: and a better DFS play long term than what we've
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: seen from him in the past, which was already really good.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: And we've seen like 40 plus performance outbursts from him
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: in the past. I think that's very much in the
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: cards and he's projected at like 5% ownership. And so
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: I think that from a roster construction standpoint and from a,
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: like this guy can be the separator that you need
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: on the slate standpoint. Brock Bowers this week is just
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: a phenomenal DFS play. And it's also about what he
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: sets up for the rest of the lineup.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: This face, the face of a man who just had
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: his leverage lane stolen. I tried to set up at
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: the start of the show saying there's a Titan on
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: this slate and his name is not George Kittle that
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: I'll be going back to the leverage of it. There's
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: like no chance you landed on that. I know you
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: have like, you've got Deshaun Watson with Concepcion, Boston and Tate.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: You've got finally full conviction on the Josh Jacobs thing
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: and just committing to it fully and going in on it.
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: The last thing I thought was, is you were going
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: to take that from me. The best part about him,
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: by the way, is that he's in George Kittle's spot.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: You can play both. We've talked about that a ton.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: It's not for me necessarily, but I like Bowers there,
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: but he's in George Kittle's spot on a lineup, which
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: is also a hundred bucks more opposite of you know,
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: or a hundred bucks more than CMC at the running
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: back and at a different position. And so it sets
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: you up with a different roster composition while sort of
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: going against that San Francisco stuff. So it makes sense
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: how you land there and just adding to it. But
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: I really do like that spot. I also think it's
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: like somewhat interesting too. And we'll wait on the, Puka news.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: But if you were looking to do like the full
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: Brock Bowers experience this week is bringing Kirk cousins along.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: It just is. And so you don't have to go
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: back to Tucker and hope it was from last week.
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: And the same, it's like, you can just hope it's
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: the Bowers game, but you could also play Puka if
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: he plays again, he hasn't practiced. So I don't even
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: know if it's going to happen, but I, you could
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: go Williams cousins Bowers. Love that little setup there as well.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 2: A lot of things you can do with Brock Bowers
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: on the slate. You can also just play Brock Bowers.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: Cause he's amazing. And like I said, it won't be,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: because it's national tight end day. It'll because it'll be
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: because magically he doesn't just disappear from being the same
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: thing we've said all season, which is JSN or a
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: tight end one price, which is 7,700 this week. By
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: the way, he went up after having a bad week
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: last week. They know, they know. So that moves me
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: around here and it's a cop out. I've mentioned like
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: three or four times on the show, but I'll definitely
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: have this in one of my main lineups this week.
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: So I'll just run with it. But I'm going to
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: run a golf triple. So golf, Aminra, Jamo, Laporta, all four.
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: and then figure out what you want to do on
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: the other side. Maybe Alex will convince me to go
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: to Josh Jacobs. Maybe I'll just play something else, but
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: I'll go to that. I also think there's one more
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: little one. That's just unique. I'm going to take that
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: one as mine, but just to note every, every Kittle
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: Tennessee Titans lineup, which is both very popular, by the way,
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: can become Tucker craft and Minnesota Vikings. on this slate.
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: No one's paying up at defense, um, besides the, the Texans.
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: So if you wanted like a double whammy, like Kittle
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: and Texans are both popular. Kittle and Titans are both popular,
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: but you could just do a two V two swap
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: Peru and get, um, you know, another way that the
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: green Bay Detroit game fails, if you will. Or again,
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: that could be in a secondary with craft and, and, Gibbs,
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: if you landed that way, but another way that it
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: can fail is if a guy like craft as a
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: one-off is hurting everything else. Cause he just catches balls
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: and falls on them, or he's getting the touchdowns. It
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: slows it down, different things like that, where you don't
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: really need a full game stack or something there. So
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: I think that's another interesting one that you could do
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: and could pair those together if you want to play
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: double tight end, but I like the golf triple. So
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: using the guy on the cover Bowers is definitely an
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: awesome spot this week.
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: One thing I wanted to clarify about the Bauer stuff
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: is I'm not saying that he's in a great spot
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: this week. I'm saying that I think one of the
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: reasons why we haven't seen the full explosion from him
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: is that he hasn't been in a great spot at
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: all yet this year, but we're still seeing the really consistent,
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: great production. We're seeing how cleverly Kubiak is using him
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: and creating these matchups for him. And I do think
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: that one reason key piece for the Rams here and
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: what could make it a great spot is if McDuffie
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: doesn't play again, he's still questionable with the groin injury.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: I think if McDuffie does play, he's going to be
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: on Bowers for most of the game. And I would
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: also say one thing we have noticed so far, I
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: think there's been a bit of a pattern, is Bowers
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: is definitely having more success on non-cornerbacks so far this year.
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: And so if I'm trying to think of, okay, well,
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: how's Kubiak going to respond to this, I think he's
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: probably going to just try to scheme up more opportunities
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: on linebackers. And guess what? Landman has already been ruled
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: out for Los Angeles. So now it's, can he scheme
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: opportunities for Bowers to get one-on-one matchups in space with
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: a backup linebacker? Things of that nature. And so I
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: just think there's a lot here. It's not so much
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: that this is a great matchup. It's just that it's
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: not a matchup that scares me anywhere as much as
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: a lot of the tight end data so far. Who cares?
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 2: A lot of you guys need this. I don't care
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: if it's a sale or a pitch or what you
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: want to call it. Like the foundation, I look at people, blickanalytics.com
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: for Alex, check it out. Make sure you get over there,
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: get in the discord. You can use promo code Tambo, leverage,
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: whatever you want to use. I just, I represent it.
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: I help Alex out as much as I can. He's
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: doing a phenomenal job over there. Shipitnation.com, you know, but
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: so many people are still missing this. This is the difference.
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: I posted last night. It's been almost 10 years since
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: my first live final. Like I've been playing this game
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: for a long time now. we're still getting stuff. It's
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: not to be rude. It's nothing against this person, but it's,
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: I don't care. What's any spot Brock Bowers. It's Brock Bowers.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: This guy can show up anywhere, anytime, any game. If
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: you think, cause last week, while Michael Meyer got the
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: catches last week, it can't be Bauer. It's they've moved on. No.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: They're not going to use this guy. I don't give
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: a shit about anything. All that matters is the second part.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: I agree with the leverage angle. Exactly. That's all that matters.
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: Nobody knows anything about anyone. Match-ups, oh, one dude slips. Oh,
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: it was a good match-up, but then did you see
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: that guy fell? I did, and it still cost you,
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: and my guy still got the points. So focus on
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: playing the game. Learn how to play DFS. Play DFS.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: Let everybody else focus on picks, chasing the picks, the plays,
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: all this stuff. Build good lineups. Play the game of DFS.
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: Put yourself in position, and hopefully it pays off. But
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: if you have good bankroll management, good contest selection, and
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: really start doing this, when you eliminate this other shit
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: from your mind, you will get very good at the game.
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 2: We're looking up. We're not looking up picks. We're looking
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: up conditional ownership. How is the field playing? If the
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: field does this, then we can do that. This is chess.
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: This is poker. This is not the sports betting. Let
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: me bet on this team to win a game. We
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: got to play a game. There's a puzzle. We got
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: to put it together. That's what this is about. So
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: I don't know what you guys want to do, but Alex,
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: anything else you want to add on that? I just,
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 2: we can only harp on it so much, but it's
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: crazy every week. The people are telling you who's a
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: good play. And I heard this spot is bad and
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: all this other shit. I don't care about any of
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: that ever.
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: I like the comment from, from Jim Andrella play the
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: offensive coordinator. I think that's a, that's a really good thought.
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: Cause like that, that also gets to why matchups can
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: be misleading and why, you know, a lot of the
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: advanced analytics or advanced like, you know, coverage data, things
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: of that nature can be misleading is because when there
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: is an edge, the best defensive coordinators are going to
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: try to find a way to counter it. The best
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: offense coordinators are going to try to find a way
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: to create a new advantage. We, we, can't read their minds.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: We don't know exactly what their plan is going to be,
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: but one thing we can do is we can suggest that, Hey,
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: one of the best offensive minds in, in the league,
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: like no doubt about it in Clint Kubiak, probably going
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: to continue to find new ways to get his best player,
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: the ball and, and do so in a good way. And, and,
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: and to answer the question earlier, like I I'm, I'm
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: just going to play Bowers as a one-off. I'm not
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: going to stack him with Kirk cousins this week. I
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: think we, we need, We need some more upside from
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: our stacks this week in terms of like playing through
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 1: explosive plays and things of that nature. And with Bowers,
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: I'm more so just hoping that he just absolutely dominates
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: the targets.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: You wanted to break the position is what you're saying.
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: I think if he breaks the slate enough to be
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: needed at 7,700, though, I'm going to be definitely having
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: some cousins lineups in there with them just to just
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: be cousins him and whatever I decide on the other side.
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: I liked your point about McDuffie as well. We are
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: waiting still on that. That's kind of the more, that's
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: the other interesting news that goes with it, but that
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: just maybe opens up a bit more, but like I said,
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: I really don't care because at the end of the day, whoever,
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: you know, It's always the same conversation, but like any
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: of these guys can have a good game. Back to
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 2: the golf analogy, the week after, oh, Rory McIlroy said
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: he didn't practice last week. He's no way he could
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: play good golf. Yeah, one of the best golfers in
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 2: the entire world ever of all time could not just
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: come out and have a good week the next week.
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: It can happen, guys. Trust me. So that's it, man.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: I am fired up. My guy says, Justin, I love
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: fired up Tambo. These things are just... We're just honestly
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: like hammering it to try and help people and get
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: better at this game. And that's really the focus, right?
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: Help people get good, win money. Last week, I know, Alex,
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: your Discord was fired up. Bunch of money in there.
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: The Ship and Nation Discord was fired up. Almost half
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: a million dollars again across everybody. So just awesome to see.
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: But let's have another good one. It is week seven.
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: The question about week seven. I always say I'll win
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 2: week seven. This is the same time. Last couple of years,
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: I've had success. It's been starting out in week seven. Yeah.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: There's, there's one more question I want to answer here from,
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: from Chris. Cause I think he, he posted this earlier.
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: I meant to bring it up already, but so the,
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: the thing about the paying up for two wide receivers
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: is that we get a really nice conditional ownership discount.
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: And so essentially what that means is like, as soon
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: as people have one stud receiver in their lineup. So
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: let's let's say I'll just click, you know, Jamar chase
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: this week with chase in, Amon Ross St. Brown goes
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 1: from 20.1% projected ownership to 4.9% conditional ownership. That's a dramatic,
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 1: dramatic drop. And essentially what that's saying is like people typically,
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 1: we also see this to a lesser degree at running back.
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: But like if you start with one expensive running back,
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: the vast majority of people are therefore more likely to
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: now go pay down at running back so they can
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: go pay up once at wide receiver and they feel
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: like they can win at both positions, things of that nature.
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: It's rare that people are paying down enough elsewhere that
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: they can actually fit two stud wide receivers. And so
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: you get this dramatically lower combinatorial ownership for any stud
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: wide receiver combination. If we go to the tight ends
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 1: this week and we try to apply this to both
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 1: Bowers and McBride, we don't see the same thing For
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: two reasons. Number one, if I put Bowers in, the
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: conditional ownership for Trey McBride goes from 1.9% to 1.6%.
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: So for one thing, they're actually being owned together slightly
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: more than we would expect just based on their individual ownerships.
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: But also, they're already both so low-owned that you're not
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: creating some further advantage. You're not taking a chalky player
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: and turning him conditionally into a really contrarian guy. the
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: way that you can with, uh, with the double-starred wide
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: receiver approach. So, um, no, the, the combo of Bowers
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: and McBride is, is not creating the same thing, but
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: it's not about their positions. It's about the conditional ownership
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: and the combinatorial ownership. Uh, you just don't create the
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: same advantage there.
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: Yo, we came in one more time, said book, Chris
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: H you got good style. If you saw the, uh,
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: the picture of them there. Yeah. Love that.
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: All right, cool.
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: You guys can check us out, BlickAnalytics.com, ShipItNation.com, DFSMasterMind.com is
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: the last one. Like I said, I think a lot
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 2: of people can benefit off that. You can get the
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: MyMap modules and just start to learn sort of the
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 2: basics and the concepts behind it. If you like it,
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 2: there's a lot more there for you as well. Alex
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: and I have done a ton of stuff behind the
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: paywall over there together, interview of himself and checking out
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: some other different things. So if you guys have any questions,
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: hit me up on X at toe tag and tambo
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: for alex for myself that's gonna do it for this
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: week good luck in your contests let's ship it