Latest / Pod Save America / Blue Wave Building in the Strait of Hormuz

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Blue Wave Building in the Strait of Hormuz · Pod Save America

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  Speaker 4: On today's show, we're going to talk about reports that
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  Speaker 4: military is preparing for a possible ground invasion of Iran.
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  Speaker 4: More Republicans in Congress are speaking out against the war.
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  Speaker 4: Gas prices keep going up and the polls are looking
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  Speaker 2: Did you get to 50,000?
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  Speaker 4: Who knows? All right. Let's get to the news. The
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: president has now deployed nearly 7,000 American troops to the
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: Middle East and some of whom may or may not
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: be fighting on the ground in Iran by the time
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: you hear this. We are recording on Thursday afternoon. But
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: even as Axios reports that Pete Hegseth is developing options
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: for a, quote, final blow that could involve a new
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: massive bombing campaign and ground invasion, Trump just said that
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: he's pausing, quote, energy plant destruction for another 10 days
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: per Iranian government request because he says talks are ongoing.
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: and going well. He then, he called into The Five
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: on Fox and Friends, which is something that happens. Still
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: waiting for him to call in here, but you know.
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: But when he called into The Five, he said, you know,
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: they asked me for seven, and I said, I'll give
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: you 10. I feel like the entire thing could be
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: made up, but we can get into that. Either way,
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: the Wall Street Journal reports that Trump is, he's ready
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: for this thing to be over. And he's apparently been
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: telling people that, quote, the war was distracting from his
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: other priorities. And that, quote, he's ready to shift to
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: his next big challenge, though Trump didn't say what that
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: might be. Fortunately, we did get a sense of what
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: those other priorities and challenges might be during a cabinet
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: meeting on Thursday where he talked about Iran and so
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: much else. Let's listen.
• 5:39
  Speaker 5: I read a story today that I'm desperate to make
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: a deal. I'm not, I don't, I'm the opposite of desperate.
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  Speaker 2: I don't care.
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  Speaker 5: We don't need the hormone strain.
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  Speaker 6: We don't need it.
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  Speaker 4: We don't need it at all.
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  Speaker 5: We have so much oil. Our country is not affected
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  Speaker 5: by this. Frankly, I thought the oil prices would go
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: up more, and I thought the stock market would go
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: down more. Hasn't been nearly as severe as I thought.
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: This ballroom is going to be something that's so beautiful
• 6:06
  Speaker 5: for the city. It's no secret the military wanted it
• 6:09
  Speaker 5: more than anybody. We're building an arc, a triumphal arc,
• 6:13
  Speaker 5: which will be incredible for the city. We're fixing up
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: what was the Kennedy Center. I was honored when the board.
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: Change the name a little bit. I'm a gold person,
• 6:23
  Speaker 5: it's all real stuff. You can't imitate it. Someday they'll
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: discover a paint that will look like gold and the
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: guy's gonna be the richest man in the world. See
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: this pen right here? This pen is an interesting example,
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: it's the same thing. So this pen is very inexpensive.
• 6:40
  Speaker 5: But it writes well. I like it. But I can't
• 6:42
  Speaker 5: have the pen the way it was, you know what
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: it is. I don't wanna give too much publicity, but
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: they do treat me well, Sharpie. I don't want a
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: stupid person being president.
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  Speaker 4: Here, here, sir. Here, here. I mean, that went on
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  Speaker 4: for hours this morning. It's a cabinet meeting in the
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: middle of a war. Marines, other troops headed to the
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: Middle East. Could be a ground invasion any moment now.
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: Oils prices off the charts. Stock market had its worst
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: day since the Iran war began today. And we got
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: that this morning. It does seem like he's a little bored, Dan,
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: with this massive war that he continues to claim. He's
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: already won. What do you think is going on behind
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: the scenes? And what do you think of that journal story?
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: What is going on behind the scenes? You know, every
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: once in a while in The Simpsons, they go to
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: the inside of Homer's brain and it's just like tumbleweeds
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: or like a hamster on a wheel. I kind of
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: feel like that's what is going on behind the scenes.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: It's just like that story. And the Wall Street Journal
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: is so disturbing because it's just like the takeaway is
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: that Trump just simply doesn't have the attention span for
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: the war he started. And when you read the story,
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: he's like a passive observer of the war. It's like
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: he's told AIDS he wants it to end soon.
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: Well, it's it's an it's another episode of The Trump Show,
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: and he feels like the episode has run its course
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: and it's time for a new episode because otherwise he's
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: going to lose the audience.
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: But he's the commander in chief. He started the war.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: Like what's his plan to end it? What's he doing? Like,
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: what is that actually happening? There's just, he really just
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: like gave an order, a war started and he's kind
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: of like just kind of weighing in periodically from the
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: sidelines is like, like the peanut gallery. And it's like,
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: it's embarrassing.
• 8:31
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: I've been trying to piece together as I'm sure you
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: have and everyone else over the last 48, 72 hours,
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: like what actually is happening because you can't really trust
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: Donald Trump to tell the truth. Can't really trust the
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: Iranians to tell the truth. It seems as though that
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: there are some countries that want to act as mediators,
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: and they've been trading messages between lower-level U.S. officials and
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: Iranian officials, and they want to put together actual negotiations
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: in person, but no one has decided that they want
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: to do that yet. The Iranians, they are very cautious
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: about about trusting Donald Trump.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: I wonder why.
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: Exactly. Because they think he's just talking about negotiations so
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: he can pull off another sneak attack on Iran, as
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: he has done now many times before, and the Israelis
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: have also done. So Iran is preparing for some kind
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: of an invasion. It does seem like we could get,
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: you know, the Marines and the other troops they sent
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: over to the Any minute now, the original deadline for
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: Trump deciding to do a war crime and blow up
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: all their power plants was Friday night. And so there
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: is some thought that maybe Friday or Saturday, there's some
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: kind of invasion or attack. Axios, as they reported on
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: the final blow. There's four options. Three of them involve
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: invading Karg Island and other islands in order to secure
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: the Strait of Hormuz. One option is just seizing ships
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: with Iranian oil, stopping them. So it is Trump's out
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: there saying that there are negotiations. It's happening. I don't
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: it doesn't seem like that's true. It seems like the
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: Iranians are open to negotiations, but again, can't trust Trump.
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: So they don't know what to do.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: But who in Iran, right?
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: They've been, there's that too.
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Well, like Trump for a while was the leader of parliament.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: He was wanting to talk to, but it's unclear if
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: that person has any power. And as soon as Trump
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: called that person, you know, when did he call them
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: hot or a really hot option, hot option, hot option.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: That probably wasn't good for that person standing in the,
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: in the country. And with the Republican guard who had
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: the IRGC, who actually runs the country. And, And it's just,
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: there really is something, like the president is just lying
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: all the time. He lied about why we went to
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: war repeatedly. He is lying about how the war is going.
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: It appears he's making up negotiations of some kind, or
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: at least he's dramatically overstating what's happening in order to
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: manipulate the market.
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's the most generous interpretation is that.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, like, is it possible that there are people
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: in the country of Iran who who are talking to
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: people in other countries, and then those people are talking
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: to people in our country, that is probably happening in
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: some way, shape, or form. Whether any of those people
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: have the authority to actually cut a deal or there
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: is actual progress, like we have seen publicly traded, publicly
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: talked about conditions. The Iranians had some, the United States
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: has a 15-point plan, whatever else. But the president's making
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: it seem like there is a group of Iranians and
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: a group of Americans in some sort of mythical Yalta
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: having a conversation about the future of this war. And
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: that's clearly not happening. And like the Iranians don't trust them.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: We don't trust them. We know not to trust the Iranians.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: It's all, it's very, and you're doing this in a
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: country of which there are no American reporters on the
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: ground of consequence. Maybe there's a handful and there's no
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: domestic reporting in that country to tell us what's happening.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: And so we really just have no idea what's happening.
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: Meanwhile, 4 million people in Iran and Lebanon have been
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: displaced so far. tens of thousands have already left those
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: countries as refugees, some to Turkey, some to other countries.
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: Thousands are dead, including American soldiers. And basically, oil prices
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: continue to rise. And the Strait of Hormuz has not
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: opened up anymore. Trump talked about getting eight ships through
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: that Iran gave as a gift. No one really knows
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: what the fuck he's talking about there.
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: That's another example. He made it seem like it was
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: a grand diplomatic gesture to show that they were serious.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: People can't really tell what he's talking about. There's evidence
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: of two ships going through, but it seems to be
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: the sorts of ships that Iran was letting through already.
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: And again, the worst of the oil crisis hasn't hit
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: yet because there are still tankers that took off before
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: the war began. And so we're still relying on some
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: supplies that were already out there. And once those are gone,
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: then it starts getting really bad. And again, it's also
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: not just oil, but it's fertilizer and it's other critical
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: supplies that don't just matter to us in the United States,
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: but to countries all over the world. They're declaring like
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: an emergency in the Philippines because they don't have energy.
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: India's running into all kinds of problems. And like the
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: idea that this isn't going to come back and bite
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: us in the ass is is fanciful because it is
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: a global economy and what happens to other big countries
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: with economies is going to, uh, matter to us as well.
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: And meanwhile, Trump's out there saying, we don't need the straight.
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: We don't need the straight or we don't need the straight.
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: Why are you sending like a couple thousand troops over
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: there to potentially invade various islands to, um, open up
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: the straight? Like we don't need the straight. What are
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: you talking about?
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: And if the straight does being closed doesn't affect us,
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: why are our gas prices up more than a dollar?
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: Why are they about to hit an average of $ 4
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: nationally any day now? Why are diesel prices near their
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: highest level in recent memory? And the diesel prices thing
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: is very important because how do you think things get
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: delivered in this country on trucks that run diesel? Why
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: has jet fuel gotten so expensive that United Airlines is
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: cutting 5% of its flights, right? And the airline prices
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: are up for anyone who would like to fly right
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: now during a time of travel chaos. And so it
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: absolutely affects us. And he's just... lying about it. And
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: the lies about what's happening at home are annoying, but
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: we all can see the reality of it. If someone
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: wants to believe that things are fine because they love
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: Trump so much, that's fine. That's their choice. But he's
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: not tricking anyone that the trade reform is not going
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: to affect us. The lies that really matter are the
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: lies about what is going to actually happen in this
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: war where we can't see the real truth.
• 14:54
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: And the lies that other countries have to parse, right?
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: Because they have to make decisions too that are life
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: and death decisions that could impact global economy and millions
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: of people everywhere. So my guess on this like pushing
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: back the deadline thing is the deadline is just going
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: to keep getting pushed back. He's not going to destroy
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: all of Iran's power plants because as they said, they
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: would then destroy an energy infrastructure across the Middle East
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: and that would send prices soaring everywhere and cause even
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: more destruction and more instability and more chaos and more violence.
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: So I think he's just not doing that and he's
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: just going to keep kicking the can down the road
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: on that. There's also like this is the kind of
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: shit he does. Negotiations are going as the Iranians guess,
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: this is the kind of shit he does. You know, the,
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: the negotiations are going well and I'm going to give
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: you another 10 days just cause I'm nice. And then
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: he goes and does a massive invasion or a bombing
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: campaign or whatever he might do. So I do think
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: we could be on the cusp of that as well. Um,
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: because you never know. Um, one other line in the
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: wall street journal story that, um, actually made me laugh
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: out loud when I read it, even though it's not
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: that funny is, um, Quote, some allies are hopeful Trump
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: can pivot to ousting the communist regime in Cuba. Great pivot.
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: Great pivot. Let's pivot to regime change in a country
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: closer to home. Maybe that's a good thing to do.
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: While close advisors want him to focus on the most
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: pressing issue facing voters, concerns about the cost of living,
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: which have been exacerbated by the war. Yeah, no shit.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: I saw someone point out on Twitter, I think you
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: shared this, that Trump found the one thing you could
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: possibly do to raise both gas prices and mortgage rates
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: at the same time.
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: Incredible. Incredible. I just love them all weighing the option like,
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: what should we do next? Should we focus on costs, affordability,
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: the reason we won the election? Nah, let's go invade Cuba.
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: Look, if you're struggling in a war, you got to
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: get off the mat, fight another war.
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Cuba, yeah.
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: Back on the war horse, Donald Trump.
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: He's going to do Cuba to distract from Iran, to
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: distract from the Epstein files.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: Well, no, no. You're distracting from Venezuela, which is also
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: then distracting from the Epstein files. Which is distracting from
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: the P-tape.
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: Which Trump now says all of it is distracting from
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: his other priorities, which are pens, ballrooms, arcs. Um, what else?
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: Marble armrest at the Trump Kennedy Center.
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: Marble arm center. Yeah. He's also, see, he's going to be, um,
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: putting his name on the dollar bill now. Yes.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: The treasury is going to start putting his signature on
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: the dollar bill. That's the new one.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: Great.
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: Just amazing. Amazing stuff we got here in America. One
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: reason Trump may genuinely believe he's already won this war
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: is because, um, the, uh, blow dry dip shit he
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: put in charge of fighting it, um, uh, says shit
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: like this. He's like at the cabinet meeting today.
• 17:38
  Speaker 6: It's the same old tired playbook, TDS in your DNA.
• 17:42
  Speaker 6: You wouldn't know it if you listened to the dishonest
• 17:44
  Speaker 6: hate Trump media. My message to the media is get
• 17:46
  Speaker 6: it right. This actually isn't something new to me. I
• 17:50
  Speaker 6: may be a young guy, Mr. President, but I'm not
• 17:51
  Speaker 6: a rookie in this realm. In 2007, I helped lead
• 17:56
  Speaker 6: the surge, the public fight for the Iraq surge. Stood
• 18:00
  Speaker 6: and watched people stand in the Senate and declare the
• 18:02
  Speaker 6: war is lost before it even started.
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: Who was that?
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: It was Harry Reid.
• 18:07
  Speaker 6: That was the Democrats and the media working hand in glove.
• 18:10
  Speaker 6: Back then it was three years into a war. Now
• 18:12
  Speaker 6: we're three weeks into an operation. But see, unlike Iraq,
• 18:19
  Speaker 6: this isn't a tie. This is not parody. This is
• 18:22
  Speaker 6: not chaos. This is success. Pure American success.
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: The Iraq War, famously a tie.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: This is a dated reference.
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: Everyone went home with a little something.
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: I really feel like Whoever used to write the No
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: Fear t-shirts back in the day writes Pete Hexeth's speeches.
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: Pure, uncut American success.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: We negotiate with bombs.
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: TDS in your DNA with some STDs. What is he talking?
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: He keeps using that line? He sucks. Jesus Christ.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: I'm shocked the weekend anchor at Fox in charge of
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: the Pentagon thing hasn't worked out swimmingly.
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: It's just like I'm no rookie. Remember Iraq? Yeah, I
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: was the guy that sold the surge. Took three years
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: to have that war be a fucking disaster. This one,
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: just three weeks.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: Did you see, I think Zatara reported this, that around
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: the Pentagon, they're calling him dumb McNamara.
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: I thought it was the Iranians calling him that.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Oh, I thought it was the Pentagon.
• 19:26
  Speaker 5: Maybe.
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: Who knows? Who knows? It could be both. It's a
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: good name. I think we could workshop it.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: As Lovett pointed out, Don Dumsfeld was sitting right there
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: for the taking.
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: Don Dumsfeld. All right. Well, there's a title for this episode.
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: Did you see the NBC News story that Hegseth's folks
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: have been putting together? A daily morning highlight reel? for
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: Trump of, quote, stuff blowing up in Iran? I don't know.
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: It seems like maybe the president's not getting a full
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: picture of what's happening if he's just getting the highlight reel.
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: He's just like watching NFL Red Zone for the Iran war.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: Except the red zone actually would include the bad stuff.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: It's even worse than that. I mean, he's just getting,
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: he gets his Diet Coke and a snuff film to
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: start the day.
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: And the story is amazing because he's like, why is
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: the media reporting what I see? I just see the
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: bombs just blowing things up. Everything's going great.
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: It does. There's something like bigger here, which is the
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: reason they do this is because it makes him happy.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: And if they tell him bad news, he yells at
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: them and they don't want to get yelled at. So
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: we're making decisions around war and military quote unquote excursions
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: the same way parents treat a hangry toddler, right? They don't,
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: they're so afraid he's going to lose his shit and
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: have a meltdown that they just tell him what he
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: wants to hear, which is a very bad way to
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: raise a child. And it's a worse way to run
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: a government.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: It is.
• 20:56
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: I try not to, I try not to give them
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: their way too much.
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's, it's hard not to sometimes, but it's.
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: Hard not to. But you know what? If they had
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: their finger on the button and could launch a nuclear
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: war or send thousands of troops to the Middle East,
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: then maybe I would be a little tougher on them,
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: you know?
• 21:10
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: But apparently no one can do that with Donald Trump.
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: I don't even know, like, does Pete Hegseth even know
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: things are going bad as well? Like, what is happening?
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess he gets briefed. He must. I don't,
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, here's the thing. From his perspective, we're blowing
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: up all the things we're supposed to be blowing up.
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: And that's the only language he understands anyway.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: Because we negotiate with bombs.
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: Because we negotiate with bombs. And we've got our hand
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: on the throttle, as he was saying the other day
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: in the Oval Office. Yeah, so I guess they really
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: are judging success in this war by the amount of
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: destruction we cause.
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: Which is a strategy that worked great in Vietnam.
• 21:56
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  Speaker 4: Let's talk about how bad the politics of Iran are getting.
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: Let's pivot to some good news.
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: For Trump and the Republicans who will be on the
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: ballot this fall. A bunch of them just got classified
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: briefings from the Pentagon about the war. And some of
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: them do not seem happy. Mike Rogers, chairman of the
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: Armed Services Committee, said senior officials failed to provide basic
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: details about the scope and direction of the military campaign.
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: That's according to The New York Times. Roger Wicker, chair
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: of the Armed Services over in the Senate, said he
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: could see why Rogers would say that. He couldn't go
• 25:29
  Speaker 4: quite beyond that. He was like, let me just say
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: I could see why he said that. And here's here's
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: a surprising MAGA voice of reason who was in those briefings.
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: Nancy Mace.
• 25:40
  Speaker 8: What was it about today's briefing that you found so
• 25:43
  Speaker 8: concerned in terms of the idea of the United States
• 25:47
  Speaker 8: possibly putting troops on the ground in Iran?
• 25:51
  Speaker 7: I got to be careful about what I say because
• 25:53
  Speaker 7: it was in a skiff and it was a classified setting.
• 25:56
  Speaker 7: But there was frustration that reverberated throughout based on the
• 26:00
  Speaker 7: information that we were receiving. And I'm MAGA Mace. I
• 26:04
  Speaker 7: am a conservative foreign Republican, and I support President Trump.
• 26:07
  Speaker 7: I think he's done an excellent job. But when we're
• 26:09
  Speaker 7: talking about troops on the ground, that is a different
• 26:12
  Speaker 7: stage in an operation or in a war that has
• 26:17
  Speaker 7: a significantly greater gravity than any other thing that we've
• 26:21
  Speaker 7: talked about.
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: I mean, reading between the lines with what Mace said
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: and what some of these other Republicans are telling reporters
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: about these briefings, It sure seems like they were briefed
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: that there are going to be some kind of ground
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: troops on the ground in Iran soon, whether it's on
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: Karg Island or wherever the fuck it is, and didn't
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: have a lot of details beyond that because they all
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: seem pretty freaked out.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems quite bad. It makes sense because I'm
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: sure they got to, for the first time, ask questions
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: about like, what's the plan? What are we doing? What
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: do we know? How do we get out of this?
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: And there are no good answers to those questions.
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: So Nancy Mace is running for governor of South Carolina,
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: which I forgot until that interview in a crowded primary. Obviously,
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: she's Nancy Mace and usually unwell. But what does her
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: answer tell you about the politics there in some of
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: these races?
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting because if you look at the polling,
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: which we're going to dig into in a minute, but
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: there is among Republican base voters, MAGA voters, there is
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: a high level of support for what President Trump is
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: doing in Iraq. Will there be a high level of
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: support for $ 200 billion for that? That's an open question.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: So she's not actually doing– she's not capturing something that
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: you feel right now. But South Carolina is a state
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: with a very high military and veterans population. She's maybe
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: thinking ahead about where things might be a week from now,
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: two weeks from now, three weeks from now, a few
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: months from now about where people are going to be.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: But I'm not going to give Nancy Mays credit for
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: being sincere here, but it does seem like she went
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: to the briefing wanting to support Trump and came out
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: believing maybe not that Trump is wrong here, but that
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: he's being poorly served by the people who are running
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: this war.
• 28:03
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: I mean, none of them can do the most obvious thing,
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: which is to criticize Donald Trump because he is the
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: big boy at 80 years old who has decided to
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: fight this war and is the decision maker. But they
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: are too afraid, so they can't do that. So they
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: all try to blame someone else or talk around it.
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: But you can tell the people who have to run
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: for office or are in tough races, or even the
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: people who've just been there a while and have been
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: through other wars, are starting to think this is a
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: little bit crazy, because it is.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: You can't think it's not crazy. If you have any
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: amount of sanity in your life, you can't think it's
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: not crazy, because it's fucking bananas. It makes no sense
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: what we're doing. No one can answer a question about it.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: There is no explanation. We're a month into it. There
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: is no strategy. There is no objective. There is no endgame.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: The gas prices are going up. If you have spent
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: your entire life fantasizing in possibly purient ways about a
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: war with Iran, like Lindsey Graham, this is very exciting.
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: If you're just someone who hasn't thought about this for
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: two seconds and is just getting your news from the
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: Fox News propaganda channel on the war– then maybe you
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: think things are going fine. But if you actually think
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: about it for a second, it's insane.
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: It was also telling how Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: spoke about it at the cabinet meeting. We could have
• 29:28
  Speaker 4: played clips forever, but we didn't really have the time.
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: But Rubio, all he could say, continue to say is,
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: the people running Iran are religious lunatics. They're religious lunatics.
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: Like that's all he can say because he's like, okay,
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: here's something that's true. So I can keep saying that. J.D.
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: Vance went on something about like, you know, some of
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: these guys... They walk in to a store with a
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: vest on, with bombs in the vest, and they blow
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: it up. And imagine if it was nuclear. Imagine if
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: the bombs were bigger. It made no fucking sense. He's
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: talking about random suicide bombers. Was he talking about them
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: here in the Middle East? He doesn't even know. That
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: guy does not want to be any part of this,
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: although apparently he might be leading negotiations. It is interesting
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: to watch both of those two, who may have political
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: futures beyond this, try as hard as they can to
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: avoid talking about this war.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Rubio's was, which I saw, I only saw clips
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: of J.D. Vance, but Rubio, he basically has tried to
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: define success as what's already happened. So no matter what
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: happens next, no matter who's in charge, no matter what
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: deal is struck, no matter when the straight opens or not,
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: Iran was dangerous. There were dangerous people in charge. Those
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: people are now dead. we are safer because of it.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: Like that is his, he's trying to like, that's not
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: how the world works. It's not what's actually happening, but
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: that's the case he's trying to make. And I think
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: in his mind, anything that happens after that is Pete
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: Hicks' fault.
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that is true. It feels like Trump's getting ready
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: to do that too, since he basically has like said
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: a couple of times this week, Pete wanted the war.
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: Pete doesn't want the war to end. It was Pete's
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: idea to do the war. And now he's really sad
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: that we're going to have to end it. So yeah,
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: they are preparing to, Pete's going to be doing his
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: next briefing from under the bus. So all these Republicans
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: are clearly seeing the same polls the rest of us are.
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: People are pissed at this point, mostly because of the
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: war's economic impact. Mortgage rates increased for the third straight
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: week are now at a five-month high. Gas is now
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: at an average of $ 3. 98 a gallon, expected to keep climbing.
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: A new forecast on Thursday said inflation is headed back
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: up this year. And all of this is why Trump's
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: approval rating is already hitting record lows for his second term,
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: now under 40%. According to three new polls out this
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: week from Quinnipiac, AP, and Reuters, a new Fox poll
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: has his disapproval at 59%, the highest in either of
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: his terms, with half of those strongly disapproving. Polls even
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: worse on his handling of Iran, where he's underwater 36
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: to 64. What a week not to have an episode
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: of Polar Coaster. But for those of you who don't
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: yet get the message box, which you should be subscribers,
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: which crooked.com slash yeswedan, go subscribe to the message box,
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: but Here, you're just going to give us all a
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: free preview maybe of what you said in the message
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: box today?
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: I will. So Trump's position is even worse than people
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: think it is. As you point out, his approval rating
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: is lower than it has ever been. He is under
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: 40 in three polls this week. As Lakshya Jain in
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: the argument points out, Trump is not just unpopular. He's
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: more unpopular than any modern president at this point in
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: the presidency, including Donald Trump in his first term.
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: It's tough.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: He is underwater on every single issue. His entire political strength,
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: the reason he's been able to survive every other problem,
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: period of political turmoil in his career has been because
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: people trusted him on the economy. That is over. He
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: has 20 points underwater on the economy, 30 points underwater
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: on inflation. In a couple of these polls, Trump's economic
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: rating is now lower than Joe Biden's was at any
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: point in Joe Biden's presidency.
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: Wow.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: And then there's another point here, which I think does
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: not get enough attention. I hit on this in the
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: message boxes. It had always been true, since Trump came
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: down the escalator, that yes, Trump drove intense opposition among Democrats.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: He also drove intense support among Republicans. And so Trump
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: being on the ballot or Trump being out there campaigning, yes,
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: it would drive up Democrats, but it helped Republicans because
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: it would drive up Republican turnout too. That is not
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: true anymore. In Nate Silver's polling model, the number of
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump is two times the
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump. Republicans like Trump,
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: they don't love him anymore. And you can see that
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: in the generic ballot, right? In a CNN poll last month,
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: I think you guys might have mentioned this on Tuesday,
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: but the number of Democrats who are highly interested in
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: the election or motivated to vote is much higher than
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: the number of Republicans. And when you just ask among
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: those who are highly interested in the election how they're
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: going to vote in 2026, the generic ballot expands from
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: five points to 16 points. I mean, this is the
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: makings of an absolute 1994, 2018, 2006 style political disaster.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: And I left 2010 out for a reason. I can
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: explain if you're interested. But it is like the conditions
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: are there for just an absolute disaster for Trump and
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: the Republicans this fall.
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: Why did you leave 2010 out?
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: Because 2010, I think, is different because Obama was much,
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: much more popular than any of these other presidents were
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: at that point. And you had 10% unemployment. But the
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: thing that really hurt Democrats was that we had had
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: two consecutive wave elections. And so there was this huge
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: number of seats that were in enemy territory that the
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: wave receded in 2010, and they all got left behind.
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: But yes, if you want to compare it to 2010,
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: Trump's numbers are abysmal compared to Obama's at that point.
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: I keep seeing these polls, and it's, look, It's lovely.
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: It's the best part of my day to see polls
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: where Trump's under 40. But, you know, the election is
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: with other Republicans on the ballot. It's the midterm election
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: coming in November. And, you know, the generic ballot, like
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: you said, it's been it's so the average, the Democratic
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: lead on the generic ballot right now is five and
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: a half points in Nate Silver's average. That said, this week.
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: The individual polls have sort of been all over the map.
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: There's been a big range. Just this week, it was
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: Democrats plus 11, plus 10, plus 8, plus 8. There's
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: Quinnipiac polls, Global Strategy Group, Emerson. And then you had
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: like Reuters, where Trump's approval is very, very low. You
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: got Morning Consult that only has Democrats up like between
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: two and four points in those polls. So it could
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: be much bigger than five and a half at this point.
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: It is notable, of course, that in all these polls,
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: the approval rating of the Democratic Party is still in
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: the shitter. Now, the Republicans aren't more popular either, but
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: like maybe like a point or two more popular than
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: the Democrats in these polls. But Democrats and the Republicans
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: are sitting at like 30, 35 percent favorability in a
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: lot of these polls. Now, among independents, Democrats are slightly
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: more popular than Republicans, which is probably good for the midterms.
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: And of course, some of that Democratic weakness is just
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: Democratic voters being pissed at the party, but still going
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: to vote Democrat. But I do wonder, as you look
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: towards the midterms, like, do Democrats need to start making
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: more of a case against the Republican Party in general
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: and not just Donald Trump? Or do you think that
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: they're just so tied to Donald Trump that it's easy to,
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: if Trump's approval is way down, that people are just
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: not going to vote for Republicans?
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: History would say that in the midterms, making it about
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: Trump is sufficient.
• 36:47
  Speaker 6: Is enough.
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: Um, there's like, the way I would think about this
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: is a two-step process. Voters leave one side and you
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: have to persuade them to come over to your side.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: Step one has happened. Step two has not yet happened.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: There are opportunities for that to happen. There are things
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: we're going to have to do. The democratic approval rating,
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: as you point out is abysmal. Also, if you compare
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: Republican versus Democrat trust on the issues, yes, Trump is
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: 30 points underwater, but we're on inflation, but we're essentially
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: tied with a generic Democrats tied with a generic Republican
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: on inflation. Um, And in some of these House races
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: are sort of a generic Democrat versus a generic Republican.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: We're going to have to continue to make that case.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: That individual Democrat is going to have to show why
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: they are better than a generic Democrat on inflation or
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: cost of living and a whole host of other issues.
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: And so there's a lot of work to do. The
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: way I would put it is this is a historic
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: opportunity for the party. Like the political storm clouds have
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: aligned as such that we have a shot to have
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: a very, very big election. We have work to do
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: to get there. That includes improving the party brand. It
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: includes our candidates running good races. It includes having enough
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: money to be able to compete in some of these
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: Trump plus 10, Trump plus 12, Trump plus 13 seats
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: that are on the cusp of possibly tipping if we
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: do everything right. It means being able to compete aggressively
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: in all these expansion Senate states like Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: maybe even Florida. And so I just... there are a
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: lot of ways that we can stumble on the way
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: of the altar here, but the opportunity is there as
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: we sit here today. And if this work continues, if
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: oil prices and gas prices continue to go up, the
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: opportunity is going to get even bigger.
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: And again, this is not just about 2026, but it
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: is about setting the table for 2028, because for every
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: extra House seat, and especially Senate seat, Democrats win this
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: time around, it's going to help our chances of having
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: majority if we get a Republican president in 2028 and
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: then can actually pass shit. And that means, and I
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: think the Senate map is, it's instructive here, right? Which
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: is like, it used to be that we're like, Oh,
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: maybe we're close in Texas or wouldn't it be cool
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: if we want Alaska? But it's like, no, no, no.
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: Now Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, we two of those four
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: and North Carolina and Maine and to hold Michigan and
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: New Hampshire in order to win and, and, and Ossoff
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: and Georgia, sorry, To have a Senate majority, to take
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: the Senate back. And then the math doesn't get a
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: whole lot easier in 2028. There's not a lot of
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: pickup opportunities in 2028 for Democrats either. So then you'd
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: have to like hold more seats in tough states and
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: maybe I guess– wait, Ron Johnson is up in Wisconsin
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: then in 28?
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: And McCormick is up.
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: And McCormick in Pennsylvania, yeah.
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: No, no, no. That's not true.
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: Sorry.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: Fetterman is up. Fetterman is up.
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: Fetterman is up, yeah.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: But like this is a little bit of bad luck
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: is you would have almost wanted– yes, we have all
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: the– like maybe this year we have a shot at
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: some of these Senate seats we would not have in
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: a different year. Also, we have a bunch of Democrats
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: in tough seats who we'd like to have up in
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: a great year like this. It was like Joe Manchin
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: was able to cruise to re-election in 2018. It would
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: have been great if we could have re-elect Ruben Gallego
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: or Mark Kelly or Raphael Warnock or Tammy Baldwin. It's
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: not the best year to have this happen, but the
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: opportunity is there. And your point is, if we do
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: not pick up a significant number of The next Democratic
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: president in 2029 is not going to have a governing
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: majority to start with.
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: And again, just like, I want to get this in
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: people's minds too. You might think, okay, well, Trump's out,
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: Democratic president. A Democratic president without a congressional majority passing
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: a bunch of executive actions, not going to fly.
• 40:32
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: Because we have this Supreme Court. We've seen what happens.
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: And everyone's just going to get incredibly cranky with good
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: for good reason at that Democratic president. And then we're
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: going to lose the majority. Then we're going to lose.
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: You know what I'm saying? So it's like you really
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: it really is important. You know, go to Vote Save
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: America because we're we're focused on giving you stuff to
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: do to help take back the House. But there's also
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: Senate races. There's there's plenty for everyone to do. But
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: you're right. It's a it could be a historic opportunity
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: because of the political environment. In 2026, and we need
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: to put the fucking foot on the gas to pick
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: up every single seat possible. And that's going to require
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: not just Trump fucking things up, but Democrats getting their
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: shit together. Hot Save America is brought to you by Stamps.com.
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  Speaker 4: Enough.
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• 42:58
  Speaker 4: fan of the polls, we also have some new election
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: results that should scare the shit out of Republicans. In Florida,
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: Democrats flipped two state legislature seats on Tuesday, a state
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: Senate seat in Tampa, and a House district that Trump
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: won by 11 votes. In 2024, that just happens to
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: include the president's home in Mar-a-Lago, where Trump himself voted
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: on Tuesday, along with Melania and Barron. Now, you might
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: be wondering how they voted, since this is what Trump
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: said earlier this week.
• 43:25
  Speaker 5: I hate mail-in ballots because basically it's a way of cheating.
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: Hates them. Hates them. Let's hear how he answered a
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: question about this at the cabinet meeting.
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: You may not use the mail-in ballot. You probably said, yeah,
• 43:37
  Speaker 5: I did. You know what? Because I'm president of the
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: United States, I felt I should be here instead of
• 43:42
  Speaker 5: being in the beautiful sunshine. But you were on Palm Beach, sir,
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: the last few weekends.
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: That's right.
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: And I decided that I was going to vote by
• 43:50
  Speaker 5: mail-in ballot because I couldn't be there because I had
• 43:53
  Speaker 5: a lot of different things. But, you know, we have
• 43:55
  Speaker 5: exceptions for mail-in ballots.
• 43:56
  Speaker 4: You do know that. Oh, yeah. So, okay. So you
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: had a lot of different things. So you used mail-in
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: voting because it was more convenient. Is that what you're saying? Okay, cool.
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: You know, look.
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: It's unique to a president to have to work on
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: election day and maybe not be able to get off
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: work to go to the polls. And so those people
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: who can't get off work to go to the polls
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: should be able to mail in their ballot.
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, he makes a great case for mail-in balloting
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: right there.
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: He also said, he's like, and we have exceptions. We
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: have exceptions if you're sick, if you're on a business trip.
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: And I'm like, oh, really? How are you going to
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: implement those exceptions? You're going to require a doctor's note
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: from people, an employer's note that they were on a
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: business trip to get their mail-in balloting done? What the
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: fuck is he talking about? It's so stupid. It's so crazy.
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: It's so stupid because it's also worth remembering. His campaign
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: aggressively encouraged mail balloting in 2024.
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: Yes, of course, because Republicans know that they need mail-in
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: balloting as well.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: You know what state has led the nation in mail-in
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: balloting for a very long time?
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: Florida.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: And you know who had usually benefited for a very
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: long time before COVID? Republicans.
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: Anyway, let's talk about that race that Trump voted in.
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: And obviously, he also endorsed the Republican candidate. That didn't help.
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: What do you think of those Florida wins? Is the
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: blue wave going to bury Mar-a-Lago?
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: Look, with our current climate policy, eventually, yes, John.
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: Something is.
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: Yes, yes. A wave will do it of some kind.
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: Electorally or otherwise, yes.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: These are big wins. They are indicative of the political environment.
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: It's about an 11, 12-point swing in the district that
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: has Mar-a-Lago, a big swing in the Tampa district where
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: that Democrat was outspent 10 to 1 in the race
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: and still won.
• 45:40
  Speaker 5: Wow.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: And we spent a lot of time in 23 and
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: 24 pointing out that special elections– were not perfectly predictive,
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: that it's a very different political environment. We were succeeding
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: in them as Democrats because we had a base of
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: high propensity voters who turn out all the time. Now,
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: two interesting things here. One, yes, there was very good
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: Democratic turnout in these races, but that's not why the
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: Democrats won. The number of votes received by both the
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: Democrats in these districts dramatically exceeded the number of registered
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: Democrats in the district. And so the only way they
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: could perform that well was to do very well with
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: independents and Republicans. Another thing that our friend Amy Walter
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: of the Cook Political Report has pointed out in a
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: piece today, special elections have been pretty predictive of midterms.
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: So both in 2018, Democrats were winning special elections by
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: about 11 and a half points, and they won the
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: national popular vote by nine points. And then in 2022,
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: Republicans were winning special elections by about four points, and
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: Republicans won the popular vote by three points in that election.
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: You know, I was going to ask you this because
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: I was looking at the swing in that Mar-a-Lago district
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: between the last Republican who won it, because Trump won
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: it by 11, but the last Republican won by, I guess, 19. Yeah.
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: And I feel like all of these, the swing from
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: 24 in so many of these special elections ends up
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: somewhere between like 15 and 20. Yeah. And it's just like,
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: it keeps hitting there every time. And I'm like, it's
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: weird because, you know, we're seeing the generic ballot at,
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: you know, five and a half right now, some 10
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: or whatever, but All these swings from 2024 have been
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: in the high teens.
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: I think the average of all the special elections since
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: 2025 has been about 12 points, I think. That's been
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: the performance above Kamala Harris's number.
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I feel like in 26, I feel like the
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: last couple months of them have gotten a little... I mean,
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: there's a small sample size, but I feel like they've
• 47:33
  Speaker 4: gotten a little bigger.
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: There have been a couple gigantic ones this month. These
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: things are always very.
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: You got to look at all of them because they're
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: very race specific. Like you could have a very bad candidate.
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: Like you look at this, like you, you use the
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: Trump number, not the 20, the previous special house race
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: in that house district. It was Mar-a-Lago because it probably
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: was not particularly competitive because the Democrat didn't run a
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: real race.
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: So you just, you know, so you kind of, you
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: throw them all in there and it's, it is, it
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: is like a, right now the special elections look like
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: 2018 in terms of margin.
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: Well, that's exciting.
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: Except for the generic ballot.
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: We have work to do. We got work to do.
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: All right, let's talk about the airports, many of which
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: are currently still a complete mess, just as millions of
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: kids and families are traveling for spring break. Security lines
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: are hours long in some places, all because TSA agents
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: haven't been paid in a month. Many have stopped showing
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: up for work. Nearly 500 have quit. Problem hasn't been
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: solved by Trump sending in ICE agents to stand around
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: all day in the airport. That hasn't fixed it. But
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: just now, Dan, breaking news. Oh, wow. We have breaking news.
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: Trump has truthed. He said that he is instructing the
• 48:42
  Speaker 4: Department of Homeland Security to pay TSA, which apparently he
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: could have done all along. I guess. You know.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's how that works.
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: That's what he... So... Here we go. I'm going to
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: get through. I'm going to just read you his statement.
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: There's a lot of radical left Democrats crying Chuck Schumer. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: Let's see. Democrats almost destroyed our country. Asylums. Blah, blah, blah.
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: You've heard that all before. Okay. Because the Democrats have
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: recklessly created a true national crisis, I am using my
• 49:17
  Speaker 4: authorities under the law to protect our great country. as
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: I always do. Therefore, I am going to sign an
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: order instructing the Secretary of Homeland Security, Mark Wayne Mullen,
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: congrats to you, Senator Mullen, to immediately pay our TSA
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: agents in order to address this emergency situation and to
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: quickly stop the Democrat chaos at the airports. It is
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: not an easy thing to do, but I'm going to
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: do it. I want to thank our hardworking TSA agents, blah, blah, blah,
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: and ICE, of course. That's it. Thank you for attention
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: to this matter, DJT.
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: That seems bad.
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: What, you think it seems bad?
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it seems bad because that says- Tell
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: me why. Because that says there's no deal, which means
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: there's no law being passed that sends money To the
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: Department of Homeland Security that they can then take that
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: money and give it to the workers.
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: We have a response from Chris Murphy. He said, the
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: national emergency is that he can't cut a deal, that
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: he's a bad negotiator. I don't think that's grounds for
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: a national emergency. We made progress today. We've been actively
• 50:16
  Speaker 4: talking all day. So the backstory here is Congress has
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: not been able to reach a deal. It seems like
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: one option that has been discussed is basically funding everything
• 50:28
  Speaker 4: in the Department of Homeland Security except for ICE. But
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: then also Democrats, even if they do that, still want
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: some reforms for ICE. Not as much, I think they'd
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: be willing not to do as many reforms as they
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: originally asked for, but they want more than the White
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: House was going to give them, which is basically nothing.
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: And so that was the sticking point, but I'm not
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: quite sure what the challenge was there. Like, I don't
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: know why you can't just, because I know Democrats were
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: trying to just fund TSA, and Republicans were blocking that.
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: So then why not fund all of DHS and just
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: leave ICE for another negotiation?
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: The sticking point was, if you want to get nerdy
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: about this, is that if you fund all of DHS
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: except ICE, you're still funding CBP and HSI, Homeland Security Investigations,
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: and they do immigration enforcement. And so they would be proceeding,
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: we'd be paying them to do immigration enforcement absent reforms.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: And if we remember, it was CBP officers who were
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: involved in the killing of Alex Pretty. It also seems
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: like they were going to get a deal. As our
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: old boss, Pete Rouse from Obama Road used to say,
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: nothing motivates a senator like the smell of jet fumes.
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: And once John Thune said, well, I guess we're not
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: going to be able to go on recess if we
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: don't fix this. It was pretty sure they're headed for
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: a deal. So Trump has fucked this up. It's not
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: clear how they're going to pay for it. Are they
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: going to take money from ICE and give it to them?
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: Which seems cool, but definitely not legal.
• 51:53
  Speaker 4: Maybe they'll get some from the big, beautiful bill, but
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: you can't do it.
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm like, yeah, like I ever said, nothing matters,
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: but that's definitely not how the power of the purse works.
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: Like Congress didn't fund them. Like you can't, maybe he's
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: getting a rich person to pay them. I don't really
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: know what's happening.
• 52:11
  Speaker 4: No, no. He's, he's, he's, he's, he's, he's wearing an emergency.
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: It's an authority under the law, under the law, of course.
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: So here's, here's a question, Dan. So, The Department of
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: Homeland Security then is still shut down. No one else
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: in DHS is getting paid. Trump is paying just the
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: TSA workers with some emergency funding that we don't know
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: where it's coming from yet. Why then, for the last
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: two weeks, have Republicans blocked Democrats' efforts to simply just
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: fund TSA? Because it's very easy to, they could right now,
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: with a very simple vote in the Senate, in the House,
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: just say, okay, We're going to fund TSA and let's
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: negotiate the rest later so we can fix the airports,
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: which Democrats have been trying to do. Republicans blocked that.
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: And now Trump's basically doing it anyway with some magic money.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: As America's favorite soybean farmer would say, he's jujitsu-ing you, John.
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: We're jujitsu-ing the Iranians with their own oil.
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: I honestly have no idea. I don't even know what
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: to say. It makes no sense. It seems crazy. Maybe
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: it's so crazy it'll work.
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: Uh, someone pointed out, uh, Eric Watson from Bloomberg. He said,
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: Trump did the same likely illegal move to pay troops
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: during the fall shutdown. And it was just too politically
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: toxic to try to stop it in court. So, you know,
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: so it's like, so it's illegal, but who's going to
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: court to say, don't pay. Yeah.
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's probably what's, that's probably what's happening here.
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: That is probably what's happening here.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: Probably fucking Amtrak sues, get people back on the trains.
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: Hey, you know what? It's like, uh, whether the Republicans
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: finally said yes to the Democrats attempt to fund TSA or,
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: Or Trump just does it with magic money that we
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: can't find. Who cares? I guess the airports will get fixed. Although,
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: it might still have those 500 TSA agents that quit
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: back probably, huh?
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems like things are not going to be
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: perfect anytime soon at the airports.
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: I also don't understand how this is going to get
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: any kind of a deal now at DHS because what's
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: the pressure to get a deal now that the airport
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: chaos— Yeah, if.
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: I was a Coast Guard or FEMA worker, I'd be
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: pretty pissed right now.
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: Right, because they all have to get paid.
• 54:22
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: And how much magic money is there, John?
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: Who knows? Who knows? We're spending, how many billions have
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: we spent in Iran already?
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: He's just, Scott Besson's going to turn on the presses
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: and start printing those Donald Trump bucks. Get those printed
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: for some people.
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: Yeah, we got to fucking build the ark too.
• 54:41
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: Pod Save America is brought to you by CookUnity.
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• 56:59
  Speaker 4: One more thing before we go. On Tuesday, the California
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: Democratic Party released the latest gubernatorial primary poll that shows
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: two Republicans and therefore no Democrats advancing to the November
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: election to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom. There have now been
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: several polls that show a result like this with Republicans
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: in the one and two spots. If you're not familiar,
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: California has a jungle primary system where all candidates, regardless
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: of party, compete in the same primary with the top
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: two vote getters advancing to the general election. Here in 2026,
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: two Republicans are running in the primary, along with around 10,000
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: Democratic candidates. I think that's the number. And according to
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: the California Democratic Party's poll, those two Republican candidates, Chad
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: Bianco and Steve Hilton, are polling at around 15%, while
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: no Democrat is polling higher than 10%. So this is
• 57:48
  Speaker 4: a fucking mess. USC had to cancel a debate this
• 57:51
  Speaker 4: week that would have featured the two Republicans and four
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: of the leading Democratic candidates because... USC's debate criteria locked
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: out four of the lower polling candidates who all happened
• 58:03
  Speaker 4: to be either black, Latino, or Asian, who pushed back
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: pretty hard until the debate was called off. What'd you
• 58:09
  Speaker 4: make of that before we get into the broader issue?
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: The mistake here is the criteria included not just polling position,
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: but also money. So that led them to include Matt Mahan,
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: the low polling, but mayor of San Jose, who also
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: has a lot of money because people like Sergey Brin
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: and a lot of tech people are funding his campaign.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: And so once you put– I think you could have
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: made a credible argument that you were going to stop
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: at Tom Steyer, Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter. They have been three, four,
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: and five in the polls and bunched up together for
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: a very long time with a decent-sized gap between them
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: and everyone else. But once you included Mahan in there,
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: it seemed like a very– I understand why people would
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: be upset about that because you shouldn't be able to
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: get on a debate stage just because Sergey Brin writes
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: a massive check to your super PAC.
• 58:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it does seem like that the criteria was laid
• 58:58
  Speaker 4: out before the debate when they all agreed. So it's
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: not like they made it up as they went. Yes, yes.
• 59:02
  Speaker 4: Point taken. But I think the larger challenge is there's
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: a debate on April 1st, and I think there's one
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: on April 22nd. And the Democratic candidates were not included
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: in the USC debate. Javier Becerra, Antonio Villaraigosa, Tony Thurmond,
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: who's the superintendent, state superintendent in California, Betty Yee, who's
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: the former state comptroller. They have all made apparently an
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: informal pact that if not all of them are included
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: in a debate, then none of them will participate in
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: the debate, which seems like unwise to me for the
• 59:34
  Speaker 4: next two debates.
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: I think it's a mess.
• 59:36
  Speaker 4: Because I think Becerra and Villaraigosa did qualify for the
• 59:38
  Speaker 4: next debate, but I don't know if they're going to.
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: And I think they accepted. And now are they not
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: going to go because Yee and Thurmond, who are pulling
• 59:45
  Speaker 4: at 1% and 2%, aren't going to go? I don't know.
• 59:47
  Speaker 4: Broader question, what happens now? Primary is June 2nd. Ballots
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: are already printed. They will start getting mailed out in
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: early May. What do California Democrats need to do to
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: fix this mess and avoid accidentally electing a Republican governor?
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: It's a classic collective action problem, John. Everyone's incentive is
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: to keep things exactly as the way they are up
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: until the exact moment where we nominate two Republicans to
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: run for governor in the most Democratic state in the country.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 4: I mean, there have been several polls now. right?
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: I think we're at 20 polls that all show the
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: same thing. Because I think that we just, one of the,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: maybe VoteHub or someone who does a polling average, we've
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: just hit the criteria to actually keep an average going.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: And it's bad for Democrats.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: Well, but here's what's important about these polls. So you
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 4: got the two Republicans who were either in the one
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: or two spot or one or three or whatever else.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: And then Tom Steyer, Eric Swalwell, and Katie Porter, are
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 4: all in like double digits in most of these polls.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 4: I think a few polls, maybe Katie's at eight or,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: you know, someone else, like they slip here and there,
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 4: but most of them are in like double digits in
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 4: these polls. Then Becerra, Viragosa, Thurman, Betty Yee, and Matt
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 4: Mahan are all, none of them have topped five in
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: any of these polls, 5%. Many of them are like
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 4: one or two or three. So it's like, these candidates
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: are just, they're just going to stay in Even though
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: they think, and like, here's the thing, Matt Mahan, you're like, okay, well,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: he's the mayor of San Jose. And so maybe, you know,
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 4: people don't really know him, although now he does have
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 4: a lot of money so he can get on air.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: He joined the race late, but put him aside. Becerra
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 4: has won statewide. He was the attorney general of California,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 4: served in the Biden administration. So clearly he's got name ID.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: Villaraigosa ran statewide, mayor of LA, ran against Gavin Newsom
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 4: when Newsom ran. So he ran a statewide campaign. And
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: then Tony Thurman and Betty, you're at like 1% anyway.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: But like, what? I don't know. If you're Becerra and Viragosa, like,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 4: what are you doing? Or Matt Mahan at this point. Like,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: what are you doing?
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's a great question.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 4: I mean, it is.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: The problem here is that California is basically a 60-40 state.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: And the 60 is being divided up like 12 ways.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: And the 40 is being divided up two ways. And
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: the math is very bad for Democrats, if that's the case. Now,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: there is a big chunk of undecided. And that undecided
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: is mostly Democratic states. And so what you have to
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: hope is that when that undecided comes home, it comes
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: to one of the candidates who has an actual chance
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: of winning, right? If the undecided allocates evenly amongst all
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: 12 candidates, whatever it is, then we stay in this problem.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: It's also, there's, I wrote in the aforementioned message box
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: a month or so ago, like now it's not time
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: to panic. I don't think it's time to panic yet,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: but we're getting close to panic time. And people are
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: going to, like what's going to have to happen here
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: is people are going to have to think what's best
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: for the party in the state and not themselves. It's
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: going to include all these candidates who do not have
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: a shot to win. Because if you do not have
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: support now and you do not have money to become
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: known in the most expensive television state in the country,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: you are not going to win. There is no path
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: to winning. It can't happen. So the best thing you
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: can do is drop out and endorse someone who has
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: a chance to win. So that's it. Failing that, it
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: is incumbent upon everyone who has a platform from Gavin Newsom,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: Adam Schiff, Alex Padilla, people who talk into microphones, people
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: who post on social media, to at some point in
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: the near future say, these are the candidates who have
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: a chance to win. Pick one of them. And a
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: vote for anyone else is a vote for a Republican
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: governor of California. This actually went down in a house
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: race or two in like 2018. Yeah, I remember that.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: Because this comes up periodically when you have a lot
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: of Democrats running and two Republicans, you're going to end
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: up in this situation. And we've, we've successfully navigated those.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: That's easier to do at a house race level than
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: a statewide level, but people are going to have to,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: we have to say, and it's going to be uncomfortable
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: because the most, most, most, most likely scenario is those
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: three candidates are going to be Eric Swalwell, Tom Steyer,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: Kitty Porter.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: And you know what I was going to say, like,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 4: that's it, but it's like, you know, I, I guess
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: you got, what, another week or two? Let's see another
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 4: couple of polls, see if anyone breaks up. It's like
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: nothing's happening. California is a huge state. It's an expensive state.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: No one knows who anyone is other than the governor
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: and the senators, these candidates. Even though, you're right, Becerra
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: was the attorney general in Biden's agency as secretary and
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: a member of Congress for a long time. No one
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: knows very much about him. The same thing. All these
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: other people you're mentioning, other than Matt Mann, are state
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: elected officials. They have run statewide. And no one knows anything.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: And they don't have the money to introduce themselves. The
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: system here sucks because of how expensive it is to
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: run ads. And the state's too big to go around
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: and meet everyone. And local media is so hollered out
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: that you can't even have an incredible earned media communication
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: strategy to get well-known because no one sees that shit anymore.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: And so this is what it is. And it's going
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: to be uncomfortable. We're going to have to make some
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: tough decisions to ensure that California does not have a
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: Republican governor.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 4: One thing that these Democratic candidates and every other Democratic
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 4: official in California could all work together or decide together
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 4: on is to elevate one of those Republican candidates and
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 4: attack that Republican candidate instead of the other one and
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 4: to make them a bigger deal. Because I was thinking
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: about this when I was reading Gavin's book and Tommy
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: and I interviewed him. He talked about how in his race,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 4: it was him and Villaraigosa. And he knew that if
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: in the general, he felt good about winning, but it
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 4: would be a tougher race against a fellow Democrat, Villaraigosa,
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 4: than it would be a Republican. And so he elevated
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 4: John Cox as this Trumpy Republican, focused all of his advertising,
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 4: negative advertising on Cox and nothing, he barely mentioned Villaraigosa.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 4: And then sure enough, Cox won second and Villaraigosa got
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 4: third and then Gavin cruised to victory. And obviously this
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: is a different situation, a different composition of candidates, but
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: I would imagine if they all decided, We're going to
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: all go after Steve Hilton. He's the boogeyman. He loves Trump.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 4: He's on Fox all the time and make him the big,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 4: the big bad guy. Then like maybe he gets more
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: Republicans and then Chad Bianco falls.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: Well, I think so in the Cox Newsom race, I
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: think Cox got 38, got 40%.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: And so when you add up what, like, I haven't
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: looked at the average, but in general, it seems like
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: Bianco plus Hilton's getting to like.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: 32, 32.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So you have, What you're probably doing is you're
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: taking that 8% of Republicans who don't know that the
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: election is happening and putting them towards one of them.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: It's not a zero-sum game amongst your Republicans. For what
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: Newsom was doing, if I recall correctly, is there was
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: one Republican of consequence who had any chance of making it,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: and he was making sure Republicans knew that this is
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: the person to vote for.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 4: That's their guy.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: And so I think it is a slightly different situation.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: If it was because he was just moving one Republican
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: ahead of a Democrat, which is easy to do given
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: the size of the Republican electorate, And the fact that
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: most Republicans don't turn out in a primary because there's
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: generally not much of them to vote for. Here it's
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: different because I'm not sure you're going to lower Bianco.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: You might just raise Hilton. And we all say there's
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: no one in charge.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: I wonder if like Newsom or Kamala Harris at some point.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 4: Or Kamala Harris, another person who has a platform here.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 4: That's what I'm saying. Like at some point, I wonder
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: if one of these statewide officials who's popular, I mean,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: they're probably, you know, these campaigns are doing polls. I'm
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: sure they've tested the power of some of these endorsements
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 4: and Not like I think endorsements make a huge deal,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 4: but in a situation like this where we're in the
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: narrow range of, you know, one or two percentage points
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 4: separating some of these candidates, I think it can probably
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 4: make a difference.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. I mean, Kamala Harris.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: Of course, they'd all have to do the same. Like
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: this fucking state, you have like Gavin Newsom, like endorses
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: Eric Swalwell and then Kamala Harris jumps in and endorses
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: Katie Porter.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And then someone comes in and does Steyer and
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: then we're right back where we were again.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: My fucking mess.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 4: But anyway, yeah. I mean, right now it's one of
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 4: those three. And I know like Matt Mahan has like
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: got in the race late, but you know, he's got
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 4: a lot of money and he's, you know, spending it
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: on ads. So we'll see. I think maybe like another
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: week or two, see where these candidates are. Maybe suddenly
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: everyone will be like, oh, Villaraigosa. Great. We want him
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 4: back in state government or Becerra.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: But like, I really think we're like a week or
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 4: two away from just like, no, it's those three candidates
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 4: and that's it.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: We're five weeks away from ballots going out. So All right.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: Well, that's something to look forward to here in California.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: That's our show for today. Also, a reminder, No Kings
• 1:08:21
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• 1:08:23
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• 1:08:26
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• 1:08:33
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• 1:08:36
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• 1:08:39
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• 1:08:40
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• 1:08:43
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