Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Shaun Haney | What's UP with Canada

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AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Shaun Haney | What's UP with Canada · AG Bull

0:11
SPEAKER_00: Except for maybe John Candy.
0:13
SPEAKER_00: My guest today is my favorite Canadian.
0:17
SPEAKER_00: Well, now I guess there's Martin Short.
0:20
SPEAKER_00: Well, Eugene Levy?
0:22
SPEAKER_00: Brian Adams?
0:24
SPEAKER_00: My guest today is among my favorite Canadians trying to keep track of the back and forth between the U.S.
0:32
SPEAKER_00: and Canada.
0:33
SPEAKER_00: Honestly, it's making my neck soar.
0:36
SPEAKER_00: I think what we all need right now is just a little bit of Alberta breeze.
0:51
SPEAKER_00: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson.
0:57
SPEAKER_00: So glad to have you along for this Friday program.
1:00
SPEAKER_00: AgSquawk in the afternoon is off and running.
1:04
SPEAKER_00: Sean Haney from Real Ag Radio, Real Agriculture is my guest today.
1:09
SPEAKER_00: We have talked about some humongoid issues this week, and I don't know that we're any closer to resolution on any of them.
1:18
SPEAKER_00: And in most cases, what we lack is just clarity and detail.
1:24
SPEAKER_00: The current trade route between the U.S.
1:27
SPEAKER_00: and Canada, I feel like there is maybe more detail in that than what we've talked about, for example, with cattle policy earlier on this week.
1:37
SPEAKER_00: But that doesn't make it any less confusing.
1:40
SPEAKER_00: I have I have a lot of questions.
1:42
SPEAKER_00: What I want to try and do, here's where I'll start.
1:45
SPEAKER_00: I want to lay out a bit of a timeline because at some point I feel like from the US US's side members of the administration appeared to be thinking clearly.
2:01
SPEAKER_00: And then at some point it broke down.
2:04
SPEAKER_00: And now the like I said, the back and forth, it's making me nuts.
2:10
SPEAKER_00: And I almost feel like it's it's unnecessary.
2:13
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
2:14
SPEAKER_00: Maybe I'm way off.
2:16
SPEAKER_00: Maybe I just want to have a coke and a smile.
2:17
SPEAKER_00: Let's uh can we all just hold hands and sing a song?
2:21
SPEAKER_00: That you know what?
2:22
SPEAKER_00: That's where I'm gonna start with Sean Haney when I bring him in.
2:26
SPEAKER_00: Super glad that you are along today.
2:28
SPEAKER_00: Uh, we're gonna talk this out a little bit and get the Canadian perspective.
2:32
SPEAKER_00: And Sean also brings excellent perspective on uh from the U.S.
2:37
SPEAKER_00: side as well.
2:38
SPEAKER_00: He's a very well-rounded thinker, and I appreciate that about him very much, indeed.
2:44
SPEAKER_00: So I'm just I've I thought he'd be the he'd be the perfect guest to have on today, and I hope you enjoy the show.
2:52
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3:04
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3:17
SPEAKER_00: All right, let's go to the tail of the tape and start markets so we can get over to Sean.
3:21
SPEAKER_00: Corn and soybeans and wheat were all higher to start the day with wheat futures shooting to double-digit gains out of the shoot.
3:28
SPEAKER_00: Cattle and hog futures were under early session selling pressure.
3:31
SPEAKER_00: Rounding into the lunch hour, corn, soybeans, and wheat came off session highs as cattle futures came off session lows.
3:38
SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, lean hog futures sprang to the plus side of unchanged.
3:43
SPEAKER_00: At this point, let me mention plus 500 as I turn my gaze over to plus 500.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: My crew and I use plus 500 T4 software for real-time quotes and a host of dandy features.
3:54
SPEAKER_00: Plus 500, trust plus 500, may we begin with December corn up three cents on the day.
4:01
SPEAKER_00: Big up week this week, in wake of the findings out on Crop Tour last week, and maybe some realization that uh turn there there may be some problems out there, along with some demand features as well.
4:15
SPEAKER_00: So a pretty good week for the corns.
4:16
SPEAKER_00: December corn ended up at 5.36 and one half, up three cents.
4:21
SPEAKER_00: Novi Beans had a great day, up 20 cents on the day, 1288 even.
4:26
SPEAKER_00: Meal and oil both.
4:28
SPEAKER_00: Uh, I'm calling them sharply higher on the day.
4:31
SPEAKER_00: And then over to the wheats.
4:33
SPEAKER_00: Wow! What a way to finish out the week.
4:35
SPEAKER_00: Gains earlier this week as well.
4:37
SPEAKER_00: So we're building on already pretty impressive gains.
4:40
SPEAKER_00: December Chicago wheat, 784 even at settlement, 23 and 1 quarter cents higher.
4:45
SPEAKER_00: Kansas City wheat, 844 and a quarter.
4:48
SPEAKER_00: That's up 22 and one quarter cents, all told today.
4:53
SPEAKER_00: And clicking on the livestock tab on my plus 500, October feeder cattle, 316.52 and a half, down a buck fifty-five on the day.
5:02
SPEAKER_00: The October fat cattle at 211.72 and a half is down a dollar twenty.
5:07
SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs recapture the effort award on the livestock side.
5:12
SPEAKER_00: October Lean Hogs,$81.90 at settlement, up$1.27 and one half of December.
5:20
SPEAKER_00: Up a buck ten at$72 and 30.
5:24
SPEAKER_00: Now, with that, it gives me great joy to bring in the Alberta Breeze, Sean Haney himself, Real Ag Radio, Real Agriculture.
5:32
SPEAKER_00: Uh, among my favorite Canadians there.
5:34
SPEAKER_00: Sean, do you have a favorite Canadian yourself?
5:36
SPEAKER_03: Oh, I think you let you led with John Candy.
5:39
SPEAKER_03: Like, does it, you know, come on, Uncle Buck, Great O'Doors.
5:43
SPEAKER_03: Like, I I that that might be the top one, especially from uh family movie component.
5:49
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, very good.
5:51
SPEAKER_00: I agree.
5:51
SPEAKER_00: I agree.
5:52
SPEAKER_00: There's a lot, you know, and people forget about Brian Adams, but he had a pretty significant footprint in my life.
5:57
SPEAKER_00: I can remember one summer detasseling where the Brian Adams cassette was always close at hand.
6:04
SPEAKER_03: Davis, maybe our greatest gift to America was nickelback.
6:08
SPEAKER_00: You know, there are people out there who would agree with you, Sean.
6:13
SPEAKER_03: There are.
6:17
SPEAKER_03: And you know what?
6:18
SPEAKER_03: If you if you're not into rock music, there's Celindy on.
6:21
SPEAKER_03: Oh.
6:21
SPEAKER_03: In case you're looking to break a window with the pitch that she could hit.
6:25
SPEAKER_03: Shania Twain.
6:27
SPEAKER_03: There's quite a list, man.
6:29
SPEAKER_03: There's quite a list.
6:29
SPEAKER_00: It's a good list.
6:30
SPEAKER_00: It's a good list.
6:32
SPEAKER_00: And one could say, where would we be without our Canadian friends?
6:37
SPEAKER_00: And and yet the out on the playground.
6:42
SPEAKER_00: Things are getting getting a little bit ugly, Sean.
6:46
SPEAKER_00: I I want to walk through a bit of a timeline, if we can, starting back in July, when Senate Republicans were warning that President Donald Trump's then threatened 50% tariffs on selected Canadian goods could raise consumer and business costs at a politically difficult moment.
7:06
SPEAKER_00: I was speaking with uh Bill Bullard about the timing of some of the cattle policy that has come out, the suspension of the the quota tariffs and whatnot on the 300,000.
7:19
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, without getting into too much of that, the timing of that just seemed terrible for the the producer for just about just about, I will say, everyone involved.
7:32
SPEAKER_00: And now here we have what I would consider a timing issue too, with the midterm elections coming right up.
7:39
SPEAKER_00: I would I would think that if it's me, and maybe this is why I'm not president, Sean, I would want to keep a low profile.
7:46
SPEAKER_00: Let's keep a that's one that's one reason.
7:49
SPEAKER_00: I would want to keep a low profile and not make any big moves and you know help me get around the situation.
7:57
SPEAKER_00: Give me the 30,000-foot view of the the scuttle butt from your perspective.
8:04
SPEAKER_03: Okay, so we you know, I was talking all through the spring to audiences in Canada and the US that at the end of the day, I think there's going to be a deal.
8:14
SPEAKER_03: And I still feel that way here today.
8:16
SPEAKER_03: But what I was saying in the spring was it's gonna be ugly, it's gonna be nasty, there's gonna be a rocky road, it is going to be a test of Canadians' ability to not get too emotional about some of these things, and and we're seeing a test of that here in this week.
8:32
SPEAKER_03: You know, you mentioned Bill Bullard.
8:34
SPEAKER_03: I don't agree with Bill Bullard from our CAF on very many things, but I agree on this one.
8:39
SPEAKER_03: Timing is really important.
8:40
SPEAKER_03: And at a time where both Canadians and American consumers, their number one concern, you know, there's lots of polls to show this.
8:49
SPEAKER_03: Their number one concern right now is affordability.
8:52
SPEAKER_03: And what we're seeing in in terms of a tit for tat tariff retaliatory fight that is uh being engaged right now, that is not helping us with affordability.
9:03
SPEAKER_03: And uh there I think there's a lot of concern uh uh around this.
9:07
SPEAKER_03: It it looked last week like a deal was you know had a high probability.
9:16
SPEAKER_03: And then whatever unwinded on Friday, and you know, and and both sides have a little bit of a different story on what exactly happened.
9:25
SPEAKER_03: I guess at the end of the day, the outcome was Canada walked away from the table, and now we're trying to searching for what's it gonna take, what needs to happen to bring these two countries back to the negotiating table so they can sort this out.
9:38
SPEAKER_00: Any indication from your side, and I don't know if we can know this, because I'm I'm fascinated by tipping points.
9:49
SPEAKER_00: I'll I'll tell you what I mean.
9:50
SPEAKER_00: Okay, so I so I mentioned Senate Republicans told Donald President Trump, hey man, just take it easy, tread lightly here.
9:59
SPEAKER_00: By the time we get to August 19, almost a month later, headline from Weesmeyer, Trump touts Canada deal as tariff breakthrough for U.S.
10:09
SPEAKER_00: farmers.
10:11
SPEAKER_00: And then just over on the 22nd, U.S.
10:14
SPEAKER_00: Canada trade deal collapses as 50% tariffs take effect later that same day, August 22nd, Canada sets September 8th retaliation and names, dairy farm and equipment.
10:25
SPEAKER_00: It just it all caved in on itself.
10:28
SPEAKER_00: What was the tipping point there?
10:29
SPEAKER_00: Do we know?
10:30
SPEAKER_03: Well, I I I think has been reported that you know USTR Ambassador Greer and Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc were were negotiating.
10:41
SPEAKER_03: They were getting closer to some sort of agreement, specifically main, you know, dairy's obviously a component of these negotiations.
10:49
SPEAKER_03: There's been a lot of rumors circulating that Canada was essentially giving in on the US Ask on dairy.
10:56
SPEAKER_03: That hasn't been confirmed.
10:58
SPEAKER_03: But the the the tipping point here, if you want to put it that way, great Malcolm Gladwell book, by the way.
11:03
SPEAKER_03: But if you want to, you know, if you want to phrase it as a tipping point, the tipping point was Howard Lutnick, Commerce Secretary, getting involved in this.
11:11
SPEAKER_03: Uh similar, you know, in some ways, Davis.
11:13
SPEAKER_03: I guess the the Gordy Howe bridge was a bit of a sign of Lutnick's persuasive ability when it comes to the president.
11:22
SPEAKER_03: Phone call is made.
11:23
SPEAKER_03: The the family that owns that ambassador bridge, the the the other bridge that is already open, you know, phones and says, Hey, I don't like what's going on here, and all of a sudden that becomes this major issue that is having to be renegotiated.
11:36
SPEAKER_03: What happened on Friday appears to be kind of the same situation, whether it was the aluminum producers, the steel industry, whoever it was, got a hold of Lutnick, and Lutnick really inserted his opinion and his thoughts on that, and that's where things kind of went.
11:50
SPEAKER_03: It it appears that's what really threw things sideways.
11:53
SPEAKER_03: What I found was kind of unique, and I and I don't really know the why, but here's something I noticed in following this on a day-to-day basis.
12:02
SPEAKER_03: It took the president 24 hours to comment.
12:07
SPEAKER_03: And it was like at one o'clock in the morning on Saturday night that, or I guess Sunday morning, if you want to put it that way, for him to put out his first true social post about this.
12:17
SPEAKER_03: And he really hasn't stopped since.
12:20
SPEAKER_03: Yesterday we had an executive order.
12:22
SPEAKER_03: We've in the US renamed Lake Ontario, one of the great lakes that Canada and U.S.
12:27
SPEAKER_03: uh share that water, renaming it Lake of America.
12:31
SPEAKER_03: That's very similar to what happened at the Gulf of Mexico, uh, renaming it the Gulf of America.
12:37
SPEAKER_03: There's some similar patterns developing.
12:39
SPEAKER_03: It's kind of we're in silly season.
12:41
SPEAKER_03: We had the premier of Ontario say that President Trump could kiss his ass.
12:45
SPEAKER_03: Like, I don't I'm not exactly sure what we're doing.
12:47
SPEAKER_03: That is not helping either.
12:50
SPEAKER_03: Premier in Manitoba, Wab Canoe, has been you know saying kind of inflammatory stuff as well, trying to match the president's level of commentary on this.
13:01
SPEAKER_03: At the end of the day, we we need these sites to come come back together, my friend.
13:07
SPEAKER_03: And and we're seeing this from ag groups on both sides of the border.
13:11
SPEAKER_03: They're essentially like sort of what we're hearing from those Republicans you were talking about back in July.
13:16
SPEAKER_03: Is the timing of all this really good for the agricultural industry?
13:22
SPEAKER_03: No, but the problem is that steel, aluminum, autos, and forestry are the real contentious issues that are trying to be sorted out.
13:32
SPEAKER_03: Canada, specifically the province of Ontario, is trying to retain its auto industry.
13:39
SPEAKER_03: And President Trump is trying to have that industry relocated to the United States.
13:44
SPEAKER_03: The auto industry is incredibly integrated, and you can relocate an auto plant.
13:50
SPEAKER_03: And that's what the Trump administration's goal has been all along.
13:54
SPEAKER_03: And that's a sick, that would be a significant economic loss for the profits of Ontario.
13:59
SPEAKER_03: We've heard some of the demands were made at the end of the day or at the end of those negotiations last Friday, like you know, a limit on who Canada can have a free trade agreement with, for example.
14:10
SPEAKER_03: That's a question of sovereignty that touches on a little bit of a nerve going back to the 51st state comments that the president's has been making.
14:18
SPEAKER_03: And so it's created this kind of emotional response.
14:22
SPEAKER_03: And it's it's it's really unfortunate because uh at the end at the end of the day, these two economies at this time, this moment, really need to be leaning.
14:35
SPEAKER_03: And I've said this before on the show, they that they really need each other because Canada is not the enemy, the U.S.
14:41
SPEAKER_03: is not the enemy from an economic perspective, but Mexico neither.
14:47
SPEAKER_03: It's you know, we should be focusing our attention on how to deal with China cooperatively instead of this sort of tit for tat back and forth between two stellar trade partners.
14:57
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
14:57
SPEAKER_00: I I referred to it and I don't know, maybe I'm being too critical of the administration here, but you know, I referred to it as sort of sticking sticking a thumb in Canada's eye.
15:11
SPEAKER_00: And the the Lake Ontario thing really feels like, yeah, you you've not only stuck the thumb in, but now you're just digging it in a little bit, you know?
15:21
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and I so this is a thing, this is sort of a these are tactics that the president used in the first Trump administration.
15:30
SPEAKER_03: And I think for a lot of people in in the US, at that time the reaction was, oh, that's you know, it's the president being the president, this is kind of what he does, and you know, it's all leverage and it's negotiation.
15:42
SPEAKER_03: I am sensing a little bit of a different reaction this time because the economic climate is different than say 17 or 18 when the first NAFTA deal was renegotiated.
15:52
SPEAKER_03: I think the you know people's reaction a little bit here, what I what I have noticed, just looking at my inbox and texts and direct messages, is people are having a little bit of a different reaction.
16:01
SPEAKER_03: Like, what are come on, what are we doing here?
16:04
SPEAKER_03: The the Republicans are in danger of losing, you know, likely to lose the House in the midterms.
16:09
SPEAKER_03: There is concern about you know what what happens if the Senate was to flip as well.
16:13
SPEAKER_03: And some of the president things the president is doing in the last two weeks, the the beef example is a is a very good one.
16:21
SPEAKER_03: It's almost like I don't want to say he doesn't care about the midterms, but it definitely isn't top of mind right now based on some of the things that are happening, whether it's Canada, it's the beef situation, or a few other examples.
16:35
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
16:36
SPEAKER_00: I uh I don't remember if I've said it before here or not.
16:40
SPEAKER_00: I've I've made my wife sit and listen to my diatribes again and again.
16:45
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, you're ranting at home.
16:46
SPEAKER_03: You're ranting at home.
16:47
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
16:47
SPEAKER_03: My wife loves that too, by the way.
16:49
SPEAKER_00: It's like wives are so into that.
16:52
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, very much.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: But you know, my thought was with my tinfoil hat securely fastened to my head, if I was gonna try, if I was the president and I was gonna try and write a write a script for how I was going to torpedo the Republican chances in the midterms, these are the things that I would do.
17:18
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it it's hard, honestly, it's it's hard to dis I I don't disagree.
17:25
SPEAKER_03: Is that happening intentionally, or is that just you know, just not thinking that way?
17:31
SPEAKER_03: I think Canada's also making a mistake.
17:32
SPEAKER_03: I've been highly critical of Canadians that feel that waiting till after the midterms is somehow a strategy.
17:41
SPEAKER_03: It's it's really it's not.
17:43
SPEAKER_03: Not I don't think, you know, depending on what happens in the midterms, whatever the outcome is, I do not believe that the Democrats, for example, are coming to save the Canadian trade relationship.
17:56
SPEAKER_03: Now, they're using it as leverage.
17:58
SPEAKER_03: They're you know, they're they're pretending to, you know, and I say pretending, maybe I'm being harsh, but let's just go with that flow.
18:05
SPEAKER_03: They're pretending, you know, what are we doing to our best friends?
18:08
SPEAKER_03: And you know, President Biden wasn't exactly at times the the most open of market individuals.
18:16
SPEAKER_03: You know, we've we've all referred to that example of the China, you know, those Section 301 China tariffs that the president had put on.
18:24
SPEAKER_03: President Biden did not remove them, right?
18:27
SPEAKER_03: And and so I think there's a lot of Canadians because you know the the Democrats are also protectionist.
18:33
SPEAKER_03: Uh at some point, a Trump trade policy and a Democrat trade policy, they kind of connect.
18:39
SPEAKER_03: And there's I think there's too many Canadians that are waiting for these Democrats in a cape to come and be the superhero and save this.
18:47
SPEAKER_03: And I think they're going to be very disappointed.
18:51
SPEAKER_03: Will they will they have a different tact and maybe be a little bit smoother about it, maybe be a bit more friendly about it?
18:57
SPEAKER_03: Yes.
18:58
SPEAKER_03: But I am not sure that the midterms or the next general election in 28 is necessarily somehow some big change that is going to take us off this track.
19:11
SPEAKER_03: It there it's it's this is kind of where we're at.
19:15
SPEAKER_00: Sometimes the the best way to defeat someone who appears as an adversary, and I'm not trying to say that there's there's an adversarial relationship there necessarily or was to begin with, but you let them beat themselves.
19:34
SPEAKER_00: Is there a case to be made that in these trade negotiations Canada sort of acted like Lucy pulling away the football at the at the last moment here?
19:45
SPEAKER_00: Like just let's just kind of bring him in a little bit and then let him stumble over his own feet because he's gonna flip out and do something weird, and then we've got him right where we want him.
19:55
SPEAKER_00: That's extremely conspiratorial there, Sean.
19:58
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if you even want to answer that.
20:00
SPEAKER_03: Well, what there it's there's there's a lot of different ways to look at this, Davis, and uh a lot of theories to work on.
20:06
SPEAKER_03: I'm not I'm not discounting what you just said.
20:08
SPEAKER_03: I I think on the American side, they have miscalculated how they had Carney in a place where he wanted a deal.
20:20
SPEAKER_03: He was elected specifically for this.
20:24
SPEAKER_03: Okay, he had going into the last Canadian election, he was down by 25 points to Pierre Polly of the conservative leader.
20:33
SPEAKER_03: In a matter of six weeks, they closed a 25-point gap and won the election, and now they have a majority government.
20:41
SPEAKER_03: Okay, so this is the issue, and he's been facing some backlash in Canada because he's been, you know, you could say pretty accommodating to the president.
20:53
SPEAKER_03: He he essentially caved and gave in on the bridge deal that I was referencing earlier, the Gordy Howe bridge.
20:59
SPEAKER_03: He took a lot of criticism for that.
21:01
SPEAKER_03: And and so I I think there was a little bit of a miscalculation from the US side on Carney's willingness to close this part of the file.
21:13
SPEAKER_03: I I will tell you that him, you know, him pulling the negotiating team back to Ottawa is very popular.
21:22
SPEAKER_03: 70% of Canadians agree with the fact that he has walked away, and we're currently at this state, and the retaliatory tariffs that they're putting in the Tuesday after Labor Day, September 8th, are also popular, even though they're going to create economic harm on the country.
21:39
SPEAKER_03: No doubt the U.S.
21:41
SPEAKER_03: economy is 10 times the size of the Canadian economy.
21:44
SPEAKER_03: The last thing that Canada wants to do is get into this sort of economic warfare.
21:47
SPEAKER_03: So if you're, you know, if for some of the listeners, if if their position is, you know, we're going to economically ruin Canada in this conquest, well, you know, you're happy about this strategy.
22:00
SPEAKER_03: But if you're a small business that's importing and exporting across the border, you're you're you're feeling some real uncertainty here.
22:07
SPEAKER_03: And there is a Lot of those companies.
22:11
SPEAKER_03: This is a two-way street.
22:12
SPEAKER_03: A lot of times we refer to, well, it's all these Canadian products and services and goods that are coming into the U.S.
22:18
SPEAKER_03: And you know, they're taking advantage of America, and that and that is a certain slant in opinion.
22:23
SPEAKER_03: The reality is that Canada also buys a lot of product out of the US.
22:28
SPEAKER_03: Actually, per capita on the agri-food side of the equation, per capita buys seven times more U.S.
22:36
SPEAKER_03: goods than Americans buy of Canadian goods.
22:39
SPEAKER_03: Wow.
22:39
SPEAKER_03: It's only a country of 40 million people.
22:42
SPEAKER_03: Okay.
22:42
SPEAKER_03: And so when the president talks about this trade deficit, if you pull energy out, which I and I think America is pretty happy about Canadian energy, and especially in the Midwest, the refiners in the Midwest are heavy users of Canadian energy.
22:56
SPEAKER_03: If you just remove that out for a second, the U.S.
22:59
SPEAKER_03: has a trade surplus with the US.
23:02
SPEAKER_03: You know, Canada's the number one purchaser of U.S.
23:04
SPEAKER_03: ethanol.
23:05
SPEAKER_03: 775 million gallons were purchased in 2025.
23:10
SPEAKER_03: I think the Midwest farmer should be very happy about that.
23:13
SPEAKER_03: And I think you you very much are.
23:15
SPEAKER_03: And so these are the kind of the nuances, and this is why agriculture in Canada, the US, and Mexico is like we've got to get past all this nonsense and get to the other side of it.
23:27
SPEAKER_03: And yes, need to sort out dairy and very confident that they will based on some of the rumors that have been floating around.
23:33
SPEAKER_03: But it's now agriculture is more so in the prop wash of what's happening in steel and aluminum and autos that I think people are very, very concerned on both sides of the border.
23:48
SPEAKER_00: Is is that automotive industry the the industry in Canada that stands to suffer the most from the bite for sure.
23:57
SPEAKER_03: And that's why Premier Ford, you know, basically said he talked about something about the size of his ass and how there was lots of room to kill.
24:10
SPEAKER_03: It was not very good.
24:13
SPEAKER_03: But again, it's this, it's we we've got the tariff tit for tat, but now we've got the verbal uh tit for tat.
24:19
SPEAKER_03: Now some people believe that you know that's the kind of fight that President Trump likes, and he probably appreciates Premier Ford, you know, having that kind of kind of reaction, and he enjoys the barbs going back and forth, and it gets lots of media headlines, but at the end of the day, it's not very constructive to a deal.
24:38
SPEAKER_03: You know, I was talking to somebody yesterday who said they actually think it's encouraging that President Trump is so focused and doing some of the things that he does because it shows that this is an important file to him, and that it's it's actually a bit of a sign that you know it's his, it's it we may react a different way, but it's it's his way of saying, hey, this is important to me.
25:01
SPEAKER_03: Well, we'll have to see if that is actually the case.
25:05
SPEAKER_03: But you know, this is a real challenge for you know, there's a lot of Canadians that feel that they are, you know, the the US is not being appreciative of the relationship.
25:14
SPEAKER_03: Canada's gonna have to be really careful they don't get too emotional because when you're emotional, you make some dumb decisions.
25:22
SPEAKER_03: And one of the one of the issues out of all of this that I consider to be not a good idea is the idea of Canada executing some ultimate leverage of Canadian energy that the US imports a lot of, and something like potash, which you know, at a time where American farmers are very concerned about input costs, 86% of the potash that is used in the Midwest comes from the province of Saskatchewan.
25:49
SPEAKER_03: There are people talking and pushing for the prime minister to put, say, an export tax on something like potash, which would obviously make it more expensive in the U.S.
26:00
SPEAKER_03: market.
26:01
SPEAKER_03: We heard this week, Premier of Alberta, uh Daniel Smith, Premier of Saskatchewan, Scott Moe, the a premier's equivalent to a governor.
26:10
SPEAKER_03: Both of them saying, no.
26:12
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, terrible idea, self-inflicted economic wound on Canadian jobs and industry, if that's the direction we're going.
26:20
SPEAKER_03: Yesterday I was talking to Lisa Wate.
26:23
SPEAKER_03: She is on the Prime Minister's advisory council.
26:25
SPEAKER_03: She's a former MP, very tied to steel aluminum and autos in her former riding.
26:30
SPEAKER_03: And she talked about, you know, Canada's got to be a little bit careful here because, yeah, sure, we could, you know, limit energy exports to the US.
26:36
SPEAKER_03: But remember, line five comes out of Michigan into Ontario, and essentially we could have a tit for tat there and shut off line five.
26:45
SPEAKER_03: And Ontario has no power.
26:47
SPEAKER_03: But those examples speak to the integration that has been such a positive for so many decades.
26:55
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
26:56
SPEAKER_03: It shows you how tied together we are, right?
26:58
SPEAKER_03: And and that's at the end of the day, that will be the power that brings the two sides to find some common sense and come together and realize that this is just harming economically both countries.
27:12
SPEAKER_00: It almost feels like there are some red lines that, and I can't necessarily think of an example on the American side, but when you talked about maybe putting some some added duties on exports of potash or you know, phosphates or you know, fertilizers and things and getting pushback against that idea.
27:37
SPEAKER_00: They don't want to do that.
27:39
SPEAKER_00: Are the if we take the auto industry as an example, uh is that an industry that maybe feels like, well, they'll they can weather this?
27:53
SPEAKER_00: What whatever might happen?
27:54
SPEAKER_00: Because remember when I'm sure that you remember back on in the radio days when the president first came in and said, Well, we're gonna put tariffs on everybody and everything, and the farmers were like, Yeah, okay, we we kind of get it, just just don't break our legs, and and we'll we'll absorb some of this for you.
28:17
SPEAKER_00: Is that the position that the Canadian auto industry is is in right now?
28:22
SPEAKER_03: You know, in some ways, yeah.
28:25
SPEAKER_03: I I think they are really fighting for their survival.
28:30
SPEAKER_03: If you get to southwestern Ontario, you know, just north of Detroit, and that's that that pocket, the auto industry is critical.
28:38
SPEAKER_03: You know, components, parts, manufacturing.
28:42
SPEAKER_03: The average, the average auto crosses the border like seven times.
28:48
SPEAKER_03: Like that there may be the the auto plant may be in southwestern Ontario, but all the parts come from America.
28:54
SPEAKER_03: And so this is like this, and that and that's that's the kind of stuff we got to remind ourselves here.
29:00
SPEAKER_03: It's not like you know, a Canadian uh a vehicle that is completed and assembled in Canada is it's it's gotta be USMCA compliant, which has a certain component of of rules of origin that are coming from the the US.
29:15
SPEAKER_03: And so when we talk about these things, I think we need to deal with some of the nuance.
29:20
SPEAKER_03: I I I think they are fighting for their survival.
29:22
SPEAKER_03: They know that auto plants can be relocated, where say a potash mine cannot be.
29:30
SPEAKER_03: Right.
29:30
SPEAKER_03: Okay, and so that that and and Canada's not this big homogeneous blob, just like the US, right?
29:37
SPEAKER_03: The the political feelings or the sentiment about different issues is different in California versus Nebraska versus Maine versus Florida, and Canada's really no different.
29:48
SPEAKER_03: And so if you look at the retaliatory, you know, this this trade back and forth, the provinces that are really impacted are Ontario and Quebec and British Columbia, British Columbia being the lumber component of this.
30:02
SPEAKER_03: Alberta, Saskatchewan, not really impacted.
30:06
SPEAKER_03: They don't have an auto industry, they don't have steel and aluminum, right?
30:10
SPEAKER_03: And so that's where the sentiment is a little bit different in those two provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan, versus BC, Ontario, and and Quebec.
30:19
SPEAKER_03: And I and I think also the U the U.S.
30:21
SPEAKER_03: administration knows that.
30:22
SPEAKER_03: That's where a lot of yeah, that's where the bulk of the population is in those three countries as well, by the way.
30:28
SPEAKER_03: And so Prime Minister Kearney has a real challenge in front of him.
30:31
SPEAKER_03: He you know, he's a lot different than Prime Minister Trudeau.
30:34
SPEAKER_03: And I and I know some Canadian conservatives try to paint it as you know, they're the same thing, it's just more, you know, it's just an extension of liberal, non-it's more polished liberal nonsense.
30:44
SPEAKER_03: But I think they are different.
30:46
SPEAKER_03: Carney has a different background, he's been a central banker, he's been on a lot of corporate boards.
30:51
SPEAKER_03: He is not a drama teacher like Prime Minister Trudeau was.
30:54
SPEAKER_03: So and and we've and we've heard President Trump say when they first had that first meeting in the White House.
31:00
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I go back to that.
31:02
SPEAKER_03: Carney's been to the White House twice.
31:04
SPEAKER_03: The first time, it was a you know, everybody was worried was Carney going to be Zelensky'd we'll remember that altercation that happened between Trump and Zelensky.
31:12
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, the meeting went really well, and President Trump said, Mark is a man of substance.
31:18
SPEAKER_03: And so I think we need to hold on to that a little bit and understand there is there is erase this true social post for a second.
31:26
SPEAKER_03: At the end of the day, I think there is respect.
31:30
SPEAKER_03: Now the question is, if there's respect, is there trust?
31:34
SPEAKER_03: And that's that's a diff that's a different word, that's a different characteristic.
31:38
SPEAKER_03: And I think this is one of the challenges that the US has in their trade policy, you know, and trying, you know, no problem with trying to restructure some of the trading relationships around the world, Canada included, but you also have to have trust in that.
31:56
SPEAKER_03: And I think one of the things working against these two sides coming together is okay, we'll compromise on this, but are you gonna be back here in two weeks blowing this thing up again?
32:08
SPEAKER_03: And that's and that that was one of the features of Friday's negotiation is that it's been phrased as a snapback.
32:14
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, where if the US didn't like what was going on, they could immediately put those 338 tariffs back on again.
32:22
SPEAKER_03: Well, that's that's not exactly a trusting sort of situation.
32:26
SPEAKER_03: And this is the common theme that keeps coming up.
32:29
SPEAKER_03: It's why some countries, like in Europe, decided not to support the US in the Iran situation because they they real, you know, the the feeling was okay, we're gonna do this, we'll help you, but then you can't also tariff the crap out of us on this other side, like you know, and and there's just not confidence that wasn't gonna happen.
32:47
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
32:49
SPEAKER_00: Talk to me about crude oil.
32:52
SPEAKER_00: I I need just a little bit of education on what sort of crude oil comes out of Canada.
33:00
SPEAKER_00: As I understand it, it's it's a heavier, heavy, more sour crude, right?
33:05
SPEAKER_00: It's yep, as opposed to the kind that that we pull out of the ground here that our refiners usually aren't aren't equipped to turn into usable fuel for us.
33:17
SPEAKER_00: So we need Canadian crude oil, especially at a time when things aren't going well in the Strait of Horror Moose.
33:27
SPEAKER_00: Is there is is crude oil in the mix here, Sean?
33:32
SPEAKER_03: Well, this this gets back to this export tax you know comment, right?
33:37
SPEAKER_03: So yeah, the US is I and again, I'm getting a little bit out of my lane, but you are correct.
33:43
SPEAKER_03: It is in the in the the oil sands of Alberta in northern Alberta, it is a very it is a very heavy product, and those refiners in the Midwest are very set up to use that.
33:57
SPEAKER_03: And so, you know, if you look, you know, you listen to some of the stuff that Patrick Dahan from Gas Buddy, for example, talks about, you know, if there is any sort of issue with the supply of Canadian heavy crude coming out of the oil sands, that's gonna really impact Midwest fuel prices, yeah.
34:18
SPEAKER_03: And so, like, again, this the it connects.
34:20
SPEAKER_03: And listen, people can talk about the affordability of food, it's a major issue, and and beef is getting way too much attention in that discussion.
34:29
SPEAKER_03: But you know, many Americans will say, I got I don't know how many texts I got this week, where it's like, you know, we can talk about food affordability as much as we want.
34:36
SPEAKER_03: It's the fuel price that is really, I'm really noticing, right?
34:42
SPEAKER_03: And there hasn't the the US has not been able to find an exit ramp out of Iran and having a solution there to make sure the Strait of Hermuz is back to normal.
34:54
SPEAKER_03: And so now we're trying to tackle some of these these other issues where the root, the root is is what's happening at the Strait of Hermuz, whether we like it or not.
35:03
unknown: Yeah.
35:03
SPEAKER_00: Agreed.
35:06
SPEAKER_00: If if there's one thing that I'm gathering from from our conversation so far, I even wrote it down here in my notes.
35:14
SPEAKER_00: Canadian congeniality has its limits.
35:18
SPEAKER_00: There's a threshold there that I had never considered before, Sean.
35:24
SPEAKER_03: It's a culture that uh you know apologizes all the time, and you there's a there's a heavy use of the word sorry.
35:31
SPEAKER_03: I I you know there is a diff case.
35:33
SPEAKER_03: So I I think the other thing that's at work here, you know, I and I'm in both Canada and the US a lot, and so you kind of notice some of the cultural differences.
35:43
SPEAKER_03: In in the US, it's it's it's business first.
35:46
SPEAKER_03: It's like, okay, let's how are we gonna make money together?
35:49
SPEAKER_03: Very like, and when I say transactional, I don't mean a bad way, but just like you know, it's it's we comfortable talking money in Canada, it's a little it's very relationship focused.
35:59
SPEAKER_03: And so what we're seeing here is the you know, the Canadian congeniality, like you mentioned, it's a very relationship-based culture, and that and that's why I think the the the current events are a real test of the emotional reaction because you know Canada knows it's the little brother, like it it from an economic standpoint, it knows it very much relies on exports to the US.
36:24
SPEAKER_03: But this it it is But it feels comfortable there, it feels like it's comfortable.
36:28
SPEAKER_03: Well, it's it's it's like honestly, if you were to if you were to go to any like think about it.
36:32
SPEAKER_03: I live a I'm from Lesbridge, Alberta, it's an hour from the Montana border.
36:36
SPEAKER_03: If I'm producing a product and I'm going to export, does it make sense for me to put it on rail to end up on a ship to for it to go to Italy or Spain or the UK?
36:47
SPEAKER_03: Or does it make more sense to drive an hour to the BNSF shuttle station at Shelby, Montana, that's an hour and a half away?
36:54
SPEAKER_03: Well, yeah, like it yeah, like what is it like 85 or 90 percent of the Canadian population of 40 million people lives within an hour and a half of the U.S.
37:03
SPEAKER_03: border?
37:04
SPEAKER_03: Like Canada's a vast geography, it's huge.
37:07
SPEAKER_03: Nobody lives in the north, yeah.
37:09
SPEAKER_03: Like it's all it's all at the border.
37:11
SPEAKER_03: And so this is in other countries around the world are you know would be jealous of the geographical adjacency advantage that Canada has accessing that US market.
37:22
SPEAKER_03: And so there's a lot of talk right now in Canada about trade diversification uh to not be so reliant on the U.S.
37:30
SPEAKER_03: That's easier said than done because of that geographical situation I just talked about.
37:35
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
37:36
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's something we talk about a fair amount here, too, is uh opening up new markets and all sorts of things, perhaps at the expense of existing markets, but maybe we need another hour to really talk through that.
37:50
SPEAKER_03: You know, here's the thing, Davis.
37:51
SPEAKER_03: I heard Greg Dowd, you know, CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation earlier this week, he he said in an interview that, you know, there are dairy issues to be sorted out between Canada and the US.
38:03
SPEAKER_03: But we uh he's he said, I often have to remind my U.S.
38:07
SPEAKER_03: dairy friends that Canada is the second largest market currently for U.S.
38:13
SPEAKER_03: dairy products.
38:14
SPEAKER_03: You know, Mexico's number one and Canada's number two, and we often don't talk about that as you know, and the US has been trying to get more access into the Canadian market, but it already is number two.
38:26
SPEAKER_03: As much as you know, there's talk about the exportation of dairy products into places like China and and other economies around the world.
38:34
SPEAKER_03: There's a lot of business that's done between the three countries because of the geographical adjacency.
38:41
SPEAKER_03: Freight is a cost, and it's diversification is not as easy from a trade perspective as sometimes we make it out to be.
38:50
SPEAKER_03: It's it's it's tough.
38:52
SPEAKER_00: It's tough.
38:53
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
38:55
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna I'm gonna start just sort of gently moving us toward the exit.
39:00
SPEAKER_00: Maybe we could call it a a Minnesota goodbye, so we've got another 15 minutes yet.
39:05
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, uh just just so we offend everyone equally.
39:08
SPEAKER_00: Uh I'm curious what does this mean for USMCA or or in in metric Kuzma, C USMA.
39:20
SPEAKER_00: Where is all that in this, Sean?
39:23
SPEAKER_03: You know what, man?
39:23
SPEAKER_03: I I really what I've said to people is that whatever the future of the USMCA looks like, Kuzma in Canada, TMEX in Ontario in uh Mexico, I really hope we can get back to calling this thing one name.
39:40
SPEAKER_03: Can we just agree on an accuracy?
39:46
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, there is there is there that that's why NAFTA was so fitting.
39:50
SPEAKER_03: And you know, USMCA was supposed to be this, you know, the best trade deal ever negotiated.
39:57
SPEAKER_03: Those are the president's words, and and now it's it's not good enough.
40:02
SPEAKER_03: And so it's being used as it's being used as leverage.
40:06
SPEAKER_03: Uh the reality is the president's right.
40:08
SPEAKER_03: It is a great agreement.
40:10
SPEAKER_03: Or maybe the pat you know past President Trump or Trump Trump 1.0 was very correct, and it is a great deal.
40:18
SPEAKER_03: There's nothing wrong with renewing with reviewing it, like they're they are going to be engaging in.
40:28
SPEAKER_03: The reality is that the future of that agreement is really dependent on what is sorted out with these most contentious issues.
40:38
SPEAKER_03: We knew going into this that steel, aluminum, forestry, and autos were the big pressure points.
40:47
SPEAKER_03: Those are you know jobs in very important swing states to you know to the president.
40:54
SPEAKER_03: There's states there that very much supported him in the last general election and and trying to recreate this manufacturing job.
41:04
SPEAKER_03: And if you look at some of the charts, I was looking at one from Bloomberg two days ago.
41:07
SPEAKER_03: The U.S.
41:08
SPEAKER_03: is actually experiencing less manufacturing jobs, not more, yeah, which is counter to the strategy that is attempting to be executed.
41:18
SPEAKER_03: So I feel, you know, I it provided that we can get past these most contentious of issues in these four industries, I think there's a bright, you know, I think there's reasons to be positive about the USA USMCA going forward.
41:34
SPEAKER_03: The last thing we want, though, is for the USMCA to be viewed how Democrats and Republicans viewed the TPP.
41:44
SPEAKER_03: You remember, no matter who was going to be elected, whether it was Trump or it was Hillary Clinton, yeah, both were gonna pull out a TPP.
41:52
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
41:53
SPEAKER_03: Okay.
41:54
SPEAKER_03: And we got to keep that in mind and remind ourselves of that.
41:58
SPEAKER_03: We don't want that same sentiment to take hold of this agreement.
42:06
SPEAKER_00: Do you need to take that quick?
42:07
SPEAKER_00: No, I don't.
42:08
SPEAKER_00: No, it's not even my phone.
42:09
SPEAKER_03: It's in the next office.
42:10
SPEAKER_00: All right, all right.
42:11
SPEAKER_03: Somebody get that phone!
42:13
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I thought it was my cell phone, but it's not.
42:15
SPEAKER_03: Don't worry about it.
42:16
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, somebody texted me too, and I'm no, no, not now.
42:19
SPEAKER_00: I'm daddy's busy right now.
42:22
SPEAKER_03: Exactly.
42:22
SPEAKER_03: I cannot pick you up from school.
42:24
SPEAKER_03: No, I cannot do that.
42:27
SPEAKER_00: Sorry, can't do it.
42:28
SPEAKER_00: Okay, well, you've given us such a a clear explanation of all of this.
42:35
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if if you've had a chance to to discuss this in in the detail that you and I have discussed it.
42:43
SPEAKER_00: This is fun.
42:44
SPEAKER_00: I hope it I hope it's been uh perhaps a little therapeutic for you.
42:48
SPEAKER_00: Is there anything more?
42:49
SPEAKER_00: Is there anything more about it that that you want us to know?
42:52
SPEAKER_00: Any points that we missed here?
42:53
SPEAKER_00: Because pretty soon we're just we're gonna we're gonna flip it.
42:57
SPEAKER_00: It's it's late on a Friday afternoon.
42:59
SPEAKER_00: Well, and you've been very generous with your time, but I I just want to make sure that that you get said what you want to say about this, Sean.
43:06
SPEAKER_03: No, I I I I think I you know, I just want to remind everybody that you know I I I think a lot of people have the opinion that from an agriculture perspective, this three country agreement it needs to live on.
43:23
SPEAKER_03: Otherwise, we've got some real economic challenges in in farm country.
43:29
SPEAKER_03: And we're we have enough challenges already.
43:32
SPEAKER_03: Let's not stub our toe, so to speak, and create self-inflicted wounds that you know set our farmers and ranchers back, even you know, it we don't need to add headwinds, if you if you want to put it that way.
43:46
SPEAKER_03: You know, I I don't know.
43:47
SPEAKER_03: I I I think it you know, comparison, it's harder to solve some of the challenges in like college sports and college football than than probably it is to sort out some of the trade issues.
43:57
SPEAKER_03: It's it I I I I said to a colleague this morning, it's only a week, and I am this this this topic is exhausting, yeah, because agriculture is.
44:09
SPEAKER_03: Not being heard and thought of enough from a consequence standpoint on the path that the current negotiations are on.
44:23
SPEAKER_03: And that's we we're in agriculture.
44:25
SPEAKER_03: I don't care if you're in Canada or the US, agriculture is always trying to get lawmakers, politicians, you know, national leadership trying to get their attention.
44:36
SPEAKER_03: And it feels right now it's it is a little bit in the background, which in some ways can be positive because you're not in the you know the bloodbath of it, but you just you want to stay out of the prop wash.
44:47
SPEAKER_03: And or if you want to put it this way, the jet wash to use a top gun reference.
44:53
SPEAKER_03: And Davis, nobody we all know what happened to Goose when he got in the jet wash.
44:58
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, we culture does not want to be in the jet wash.
45:01
SPEAKER_00: No, no.
45:03
SPEAKER_00: Very good.
45:04
SPEAKER_00: We're running on fumes, Kouger.
45:05
SPEAKER_00: Kouger.
45:06
SPEAKER_00: We're running on fumes.
45:07
SPEAKER_03: I like what happened in the markets today, though.
45:08
SPEAKER_03: Like that's that was exciting.
45:10
SPEAKER_00: It's been an exciting week.
45:11
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna tell you, Sean, it's I've I've been trying to to keep my guests very news forward this week, which means I've spent a lot of time looking deeply into certain issues so that I can discuss these things somewhat intelligently or at least ask good questions.
45:31
SPEAKER_00: And bro, my I'm I'm about spent for one week.
45:36
SPEAKER_00: There's there's been a lot going on.
45:37
SPEAKER_00: The the shiny bright spot has been a higher corn soybeans.
45:42
SPEAKER_00: Did you see what wheat did?
45:43
SPEAKER_00: I mean, oh my gosh, at least we have that.
45:46
SPEAKER_00: At least we have that.
45:48
SPEAKER_00: Sean Haney.
45:49
SPEAKER_03: I I like the look of the November soybean chart.
45:53
SPEAKER_03: Like I was looking at, I was looking at that this morning.
45:56
SPEAKER_03: Like it has a very nice little shape to it.
46:00
SPEAKER_03: I think there's lots of, you know, you you think back to the spring, Davis, and there were there was a lot of talk from ag economists about the industry is under structural change, not necessarily a commod a regular commodity down cycle.
46:18
SPEAKER_03: And since April, you know where a lot of that that sentiment was kind of known.
46:25
SPEAKER_03: Boy, we've reversed it.
46:27
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
46:27
SPEAKER_03: We we were and we're seeing it also show up in the Purdue Ag Barometer.
46:34
SPEAKER_03: We're seeing it show up in our Canadian Farmer Sentiment Index, where we have some of the same methodology.
46:40
SPEAKER_03: The markets have provided some optimism for people that are in the cropping sector.
46:46
SPEAKER_03: It's it's really been the beef sector, for example, that all of a sudden feels like it's facing all these headwinds and things being thrown in, and it feels a really challenged right now from a number of standpoints.
47:01
SPEAKER_03: And some of them are made-up issues, and some of them are obviously like screw worm is a real issue that uh hopefully we get that US that US Mexico border open to full speed as quickly as we can.
47:14
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
47:15
SPEAKER_00: Well, and then then you got the uh the hogs who I who I think are doing they're doing okay.
47:20
SPEAKER_00: I'd I'd like to see I'd like to see a little more demand for pork, but through all of the tumult, it just sort of feels like hogs are just kind of trying to stay, you know, out of the out of the auxiliary fire, out of the line of fire as best they can, and they're doing a darn good job doing it.
47:38
SPEAKER_00: You're right.
47:39
SPEAKER_03: But Davis, here's the point though, okay.
47:41
SPEAKER_03: So like this is the argument the beef industry has had is like, sure, beef is on a per gram of protein, protein basis.
47:49
SPEAKER_03: Beef is more expensive, but the consumer continues to step up and and choose to buy beef even at some of the prices that we have seen.
47:58
SPEAKER_03: There are cheaper protein options, you know.
48:01
SPEAKER_03: I think pork is sort of like, hey, hello, we're over here.
48:04
SPEAKER_03: You know, we're uh we're we're we're pretty good too from a protein standpoint, and and trying to be, you know, trying to create some demand, and and because it is it is more affordable right now for a lot of households that are being very price conscious.
48:18
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, they know they want protein, but they're you know, they're being a little bit more price conscious, and and pork is a is a great option.
48:25
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
48:26
SPEAKER_00: I've got I saw pork shoulders for a dollar forty-eight a pound, and I don't know if that if that resonates with you with the with the currency.
48:34
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah, no, it does.
48:35
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, what should I want?
48:36
SPEAKER_00: You know, any anytime anything below two bucks a pound on a pork shoulder, and I am in, I'm here to tell you, I got so much pork in my freezer right now, it's gonna take me a while to get through it.
48:47
SPEAKER_00: But uh it would be nice to see to see some of that demand come over.
48:53
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, you look you look at a tenderloin, for example.
48:55
SPEAKER_03: You go to you go to a place like Costco or Sam's Club and you're gonna buy a tenderloin.
48:59
SPEAKER_03: You compare that beef tenderloin versus the pork tenderloin.
49:04
SPEAKER_03: It's it's it is on a price basis, it's not even remotely close to each other.
49:10
SPEAKER_01: Nope.
49:11
SPEAKER_03: Not I I that's one thing I've been kind of a little bit surprised is we're not seeing like a massive uh maybe and I don't have the numbers in front of me, but uh based on some of the concerns about affordability, you'd think that pork demand would just be like really on the growth curve here.
49:27
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
49:28
SPEAKER_00: And that's you know, that's why the 90-day tariff suspension on on beef imports and we're gonna sell 25% below the market in the ground market.
49:38
SPEAKER_00: It just doesn't make any sense.
49:39
SPEAKER_00: It doesn't make any sense.
49:40
SPEAKER_00: If people are if people are willing to pay up for it, let them pay up for it.
49:44
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but you know, not that I wish high prices on the consumer, but like you say, that they keep buying it.
49:51
SPEAKER_00: They keep buying it when there are very much less expensive alternatives sitting right next to them in the meat counter.
49:59
SPEAKER_03: When you when you are you we when you when you look at this issue and when you're able to unify what RCAF is saying and what NCBA is saying and U.S.
50:11
SPEAKER_03: Cattlemen is saying, like you've unified those groups to have the exact same thought that this is this is not helpful to try to rebuild the U.S.
50:21
SPEAKER_03: cow herd.
50:23
SPEAKER_03: I think you have to take notice.
50:24
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, because they they don't agree on sometimes the day of the week.
50:28
SPEAKER_03: They're sort of like Congress in that in that way, right?
50:30
SPEAKER_03: I know and so I think that should be a message that what exactly are we doing?
50:35
SPEAKER_03: And the reality is, is if you read some of the stuff that a lot of egg economists are saying that are focused on you know this this this file, this lane, they'll tell you the actual impact that the that the White House is chasing here is not reality.
50:51
SPEAKER_03: Right, it's not going to lower prices and everyone's just wow, like look how look how affordable beef is all of a sudden.
50:59
SPEAKER_03: And it's not going to help rebuild the herd either.
51:01
SPEAKER_03: Exactly, which should be our focus.
51:04
SPEAKER_03: That that that is actually the supply issue is is is what's causing the the higher prices.
51:12
SPEAKER_03: We've we've got a lot of challenge, you know.
51:14
SPEAKER_03: I I know that people don't have a lot of sympathy for packers, but the losses have been substantial.
51:20
SPEAKER_03: We're seeing, you know, how uh packing plants either you know changing to a you know, be maybe be like a a packaging plant as opposed to a slaughterhouse.
51:30
SPEAKER_03: We're seeing slaughterhouses close down.
51:33
SPEAKER_03: That's all due to supply.
51:35
SPEAKER_03: And and and so the supply issue is what has to be dealt with.
51:39
SPEAKER_03: Some of these quick fixes that we're chasing here, they're tactics, they're not strategy.
51:46
SPEAKER_00: Tactics, not strategies.
51:48
SPEAKER_00: That's good.
51:48
SPEAKER_00: It takes a long time to grow a cow, you know.
51:51
SPEAKER_03: That's that's but that's that's part of the pro that's part of the challenge here.
51:54
SPEAKER_03: Yeah it's not like eggs, right?
51:57
SPEAKER_03: Right?
51:57
SPEAKER_03: They they and they they they were able to take advantage of the fact that you know it's a quick it's a quicker turnaround, the market kind of went in the right direction, and hey, look how the egg prices came down.
52:10
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, beef is just it's not it's a different animal.
52:13
SPEAKER_00: Yep, yeah, it really is.
52:15
SPEAKER_00: No feathers.
52:16
SPEAKER_00: That's your first clue.
52:17
SPEAKER_00: No feathers on on cows, at least not American cows.
52:20
SPEAKER_03: Uh same.
52:22
SPEAKER_03: I guess the same no matter where you go.
52:23
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
52:25
SPEAKER_00: Well, I am gonna okay.
52:26
SPEAKER_00: Here's in the Minnesota goodbye.
52:28
SPEAKER_00: Here's here's the second salvo.
52:31
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna move us toward the exit there.
52:33
SPEAKER_00: Is that a real window behind you?
52:34
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it is.
52:34
SPEAKER_03: You can see cars once in a while moving by, yeah.
52:37
SPEAKER_00: Is uh am I seeing sunshine and and blue skies today?
52:41
SPEAKER_00: And what's what's uh well, how are you setting up there right now?
52:44
SPEAKER_03: It is pretty nice.
52:45
SPEAKER_03: I think it's about 85 degrees and uh sunny and nice, and yeah, no, no complaints.
52:51
SPEAKER_00: Excellent, excellent.
52:53
SPEAKER_03: We're 83 degrees today.
52:55
SPEAKER_00: That's about what it is here.
52:56
SPEAKER_03: Well, we might be a little warmer than that here in KC, but uh it's gonna be hot at Farm Progress next week.
53:01
SPEAKER_03: I know that.
53:01
SPEAKER_03: I looked at it.
53:02
SPEAKER_00: I hear the heat's moving back in, back into the Midwest.
53:05
SPEAKER_00: Have fun with all that.
53:06
SPEAKER_00: The National Weather Service says uh dangerous heat will persist across the southwestern United States through Saturday with daytime highs of 110 to 115.
53:14
SPEAKER_00: Extreme heat warnings remain in effect.
53:17
SPEAKER_00: Dangerous heat will build across the southern plains again beginning this weekend, heavy to excessive rain over the Carolinas Friday, may lead to isolated areas of flash flooding.
53:29
SPEAKER_00: And Sean, before I let you go, a few items of uh of mild interest, if you don't mind.
53:36
SPEAKER_00: Let's go all the way back to the year 476 AD.
53:40
SPEAKER_00: On this date, August 28, 476.
53:46
SPEAKER_00: Western uh Roman Emperor Orestes abdicated the throne to the Germanians, who quickly adopted the phrase Icka being ein Emperor.
53:58
SPEAKER_00: Kind of a JFK joke there.
54:00
SPEAKER_00: 1830, the first American-built locomotive called Tom Thumb races a horse-drawn car from Baltimore to Ellicott Mills.
54:09
SPEAKER_00: Due to mechanical problems, the horse was victorious.
54:14
SPEAKER_00: In 1837, pharmacists John Lee and William Perrens manufacture manufacture Worcestershire sauce.
54:23
SPEAKER_00: And my joke is always I can never pull it out of the fridge without saying Worcestershire, more like bestershire sauce.
54:30
SPEAKER_03: An important ingredient in a very popular Canadian drink called a Caesar, not the same as a Bloody Mary.
54:39
SPEAKER_03: Uh involves calmato juice and Worcestershire sauce.
54:42
SPEAKER_03: So that's that that is a very important invention.
54:45
SPEAKER_00: Well, and just a couple of more here.
54:47
SPEAKER_00: 1965, it's the birthday of, and you mentioned this earlier, of Canadian-born singer-songwriter Shania Twain, born in 1965, and in 1969, actor and fellow Canadian Jason Priestley was born on this date, best known for his role in Beverly Hills 90210.
55:08
SPEAKER_00: Sean Haney, Real Agriculture, Real Ag Radio.
55:11
SPEAKER_00: Brother, I appreciate your perspective.
55:13
SPEAKER_00: I don't know anybody else who who I could have had this conversation with because you you brings you bring perspective on both sides of the border, and you you you meld them together in a in a really extraordinary way.
55:29
SPEAKER_00: We we appreciate your time.
55:30
SPEAKER_00: Thanks for sticking around a little bit later with us on a Friday.
55:34
SPEAKER_00: I'm sure you're anxious to get to the weekend.
55:36
SPEAKER_00: You got big plans?
55:38
SPEAKER_03: I am my both my boys went to the same baseball academy, and tomorrow is the alumni game and golf tournament.
55:45
SPEAKER_03: So I'm doing that tomorrow.
55:46
SPEAKER_03: It's gonna be a lot of fun.
55:47
SPEAKER_00: Big day, big day.
55:49
SPEAKER_00: Sean Haney, Real Ag Radio, and Real Agriculture.
55:52
SPEAKER_00: Thanks again for uh for being with me today.
55:55
SPEAKER_00: I appreciate you, brother.
55:56
SPEAKER_03: Greatly appreciate it.
55:57
SPEAKER_03: Thanks a lot, Davis.
55:58
SPEAKER_03: Always appreciate the invite and all the best to everybody out there, and have yourselves a great weekend.
56:02
SPEAKER_00: Well, and thanks to TradeThe News as well.
56:05
SPEAKER_00: We use TradeThe News to keep us on top of the news that moves the markets.
56:09
SPEAKER_00: Trade the news.
56:10
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56:11
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56:13
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56:20
SPEAKER_00: Visit AgBull.com or call 855-737 Farm.
56:26
SPEAKER_00: We made it, everybody.
56:27
SPEAKER_00: We made it.
56:28
SPEAKER_00: I hope you have a safe and uh fulfilling weekend, whatever you may wind up doing.
56:33
SPEAKER_00: If you're out there messing around on the farm, your your uh uh harvest has started.
56:38
SPEAKER_00: Uh just let me just say, don't stick your hand in there.
56:41
SPEAKER_00: Safety first, everybody.
56:43
SPEAKER_00: Safety first.
56:44
SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell will get you set up bright and early Monday morning, and then I'll have a conversation with Brian Hoops from Midwest Market Solutions Monday afternoon.
56:53
SPEAKER_00: We appreciate your time, everyone.
56:55
SPEAKER_00: Have a great weekend.
56:55
SPEAKER_00: Come on back Monday.