Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 248 - 4/2/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 248 - 4/2/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 248 of the All Systems Go sports
0:26
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:29
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:37
Happy Wednesday, happy hump day. We are halfway through our work
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week, one day closer to the final Four.
0:44
I want to give a shout out to those of you who tune into the
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Rhythm College Basketball Tuesday live stream reminder.
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It's every Tuesday at 4:00. So a bunch of a bunch of friends
0:53
in there, including Babyface Assassin and my guy Willie
0:57
Tomlinson and a few others. So it's always nice to see some
1:00
podcast wise guys jumping in the the Tuesday live stream.
1:03
Remember, you can always follow me on Twitter at Josh under
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score Insights. You'll see the pop up every
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Tuesday at 4:00 when we go live. We were talking about some of
1:11
the final four games. So we're looking at Florida and
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Auburn where everyone's playing Florida, but they're -2 1/2 and
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they pretty much stayed 2 1/2. So do they get up to three?
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Looks like a bit of a line freeze for me.
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We actually have Rhythm projecting a 1.9 game and Ken
1:27
Palm has a one. So basically Florida eking out
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A1 or A2 point win, everyone's playing Florida.
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I'm thinking about waiting for Auburn +3.
1:35
We also did see that total fall a bit, 161 down to 159 1/2.
1:40
Then for the Houston Duke game, we saw the early move toward
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Duke -4 1/2. They got all the way up to 5
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1/2. But now you're seeing some shops
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get back down to five even maybe back down to four and a half.
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And that was a game where Rhythm at a 3.9 and Ken Palm had
1:56
Houston only losing by two. So Houston is a contrarian spot
1:59
with a little bit of buyback. I'm intrigued by Houston.
2:02
If you can maybe still find a book hanging in a 5 1/2, that
2:05
might be the best number. And that could be a low scoring
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game open around 137. Some books are down to 136 1/2.
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So we talked about those games on the live stream yesterday.
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Again, no official plays for me yet, but we'll continue to
2:18
update this this line going into the weekend.
2:21
We also hit on some MLB. Obviously yesterday was a big
2:24
day because we had a great day in MLB.
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I'll get to that in a second, but also the fact that rhythm
2:29
has now unveiled all of their MLB predictions.
2:33
So whether you're a player, prop person or more of a
2:35
conventional, you know, money line total, the occasional run
2:39
line better like I am, you'll now see all those predictions
2:43
live in the app. So you can follow the, the
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basically the AI model that rhythm will spit out to you, or
2:50
you can create your own based on a specific criteria that are
2:53
important to you. And it's really cool.
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You can toggle these different factors like ground ball
2:59
pitching, walks, power contact strikeouts, and based on how you
3:04
kind of weight what's important to you.
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Like I made a model where I wanted ground ball pitching
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again, get some outs and limit home runs, But then I also
3:13
wanted high strikeouts with contact hitting.
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So I had a system that was created by me from Rhythm based
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on those criteria. So that's available to you again
3:22
with a Rhythm app. Now looking for today guys.
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Right back to MLB. I am so happy Major League
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Baseball is back in our lives. We had a great night yesterday.
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3 and 1 + 0.94 units. I had some great hits with the
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Dodgers as our value play. Shout out to Mookie Betts
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Britain A2 run Homer get off of Chris Sale late in that game.
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Dodgers were down 1. Nothing.
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And of course Mookie came through which was awesome even
3:47
though it pains me as a Red Sox fan.
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Why did we let him go? I'll never understand it.
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Maybe he didn't want to stay in Boston.
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Who knows. But I think if if you offered
3:54
him 400 million, I think he probably would have taken it.
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But then also, we had a great one with the Padres and the Rays
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didn't really have to sweat those.
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And the only team that kept us from busting out the brooms were
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the Cardinals. And I right on cue, my buddy
4:07
Derouche DM me and said, are the Cardinals going to do this to us
4:09
again? Because if you played the
4:11
Cardinals last year, they had a lot of bullpen implosions.
4:14
But Cardinals for the second night in a row have a lead.
4:17
Blow it good sharp steam and the angels keep finding ways to win
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these games. So more on the Cardinals here in
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a second, but Ryan Fernandez and Chris Roycroft thanks guys
4:27
coming out of the pen just coughing up, you know, blown
4:30
leads here every now every every time you get out there.
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So anyway, Cardinals couldn't come through for us.
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But overall, good start to the MLB season 3 and 1 + 0.94 units.
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So with that being said, I woke up a little bit earlier today.
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I'm getting this pot out a little bit earlier because we
4:46
have day sweats and Major League Baseball and I want to make sure
4:49
we can get this out early enough.
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So if you want to play these games, you'll have time to put
4:53
them in. So without further ado, I got a
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four pack of Major League Baseball plays, all money lines
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in all system matches. Of course, we're talking MLB.
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I'm looking at line movement, $0.10 of steam or more.
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That's a sharp indicator to me. I like having a good bet split,
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low bets, higher dollars. But really baseball is a system
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sport. Like you want the market and
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really the movement in the splits to, to be on, you know,
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basically either side, but pick a side.
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So it shows that the wise guys have taken a position and then
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you want all the, that all those historical betting systems to
5:26
basically coincide or overlap that position.
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So we're basically being able to combine the past with the
5:31
present, the present betting data with in the situation.
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Historically, these teams hopefully have performed well
5:37
and that's what we got today. 4 plays where they're all and I
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actually, to be honest with you guys, I could have probably had
5:42
it 5 or 6 plays or a couple others that I like, but I just
5:44
didn't want to force it. So we'll be looking at 4 here
5:47
and trying to trying to find a way to go 3 and one again.
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That would be fantastic. So without further ado, let's
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get after it. Big MLB slate, Let's start with
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the early one. First game on the board, 12:40
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PM Eastern Time, Texas Rangers in the Cincinnati Reds.
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So going into this one, it's the rubber match of a three-game
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series. We have the Reds coming in two
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and three. They won the opener 14 to three,
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easily cashed as a + 110 home dog.
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Then the Rangers who are four and two bounced back with A1
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nothing win. Yesterday Nathan Evaldi pitched
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to Gem. They took care of business as a
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- 150 Rd. favorite. So pitching matchup for today.
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We have Jack later the young kid going for the Rangers.
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He's one and O 1.8 O ERA. Meanwhile, the Reds are going to
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go with fellow ready Hunter Green O&O with a 3.6 OERA.
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So what have you seen across the market here?
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Well, pretty big steam in favor of the red legs.
6:40
Give me the red legs. Let's do it for do it for Pete
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Rose. RIP.
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By the way, the shortest joke of all time.
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Ready. See if you can get this Pete
6:48
Rose sat on attack. Pete Rose, you get it.
6:53
You get it. OK, anyway, this line open
6:56
Cincinnati listed as around a -, 125 home favorite and steam has
7:00
gone toward the red legs. They're now up to -135 some
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shops even as high as -140 -, 145 S pretty clear steam in
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favor of Cincinnati. You look at the bet splits
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overwhelming in favor of the Reds, especially out at Circa in
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Vegas, 89% of money line bets over 95% of money line dollars
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on the Reds. So big, big hefty movement and
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and liability here in favor of Cincinnati.
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And as I mentioned, that's the present day data low bets,
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higher dollars line move toward the Reds.
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But now let's look at all of our system matches.
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Right off the bat, home favorites seems chalky, seems
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obvious, but they've done pretty well historically and they're
7:37
off to a great start this year. Home favorites in MLB are 34 and
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1668 percent, 13% ROI this year. Let's take it a few steps
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further. Favorites awful loss, 18 and
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869% with a 17% ROI this year. Non division home favorites with
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steam $0.10 or more 18 and six this year, 75%, 25% ROI.
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Interleague home favorites 17 and 674 percent 20% ROI.
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So we have all of these very profitable betting systems
8:09
lining up with Cincinnati and we got the line move toward the
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Reds. I will be banking hopefully on
8:13
the Reds bats coming coming to play today.
8:16
You know, he couldn't get anything in Sovaldi, but he is a
8:18
great pitcher. But they're better overall in
8:21
the year against the Rangers or compared to the Rangers.
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The Reds are hitting 239 with 24 runs scored.
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Rangers are hitting two O 7 with only seventeen runs scored.
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So it's an early game, but we got big movement here towards
8:34
Cincinnati. We got a ton of betting system
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matches. We got the Inter League
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favorite, which always like lack of familiarity benefiting the
8:40
team who's expected to win. So my first play of the day is
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Cincinnati. It'll be great to start the day
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off with a win. Give me the Reds.
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I got the Reds at I believe -140 next one for you again,
8:54
definition of insanity. Doing the same thing over and
8:56
over again, expecting different result.
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But man, I'm going down the ship.
9:01
Da Rouche, are you with me? I'm going with Saint Louis
9:03
Cardinals today. They, they owe US1 Angels at the
9:06
Cardinals, 1:15 PM first pitch. Obviously the Angels four and
9:11
one on the year. Let us, you know, broke our
9:14
hearts. You know what's really annoying
9:15
about last night too? I think it was the 10th inning.
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The Angels score three runs. So Saint Louis is down three
9:21
runs, bottom of the 10th. I'm like, OK, we lost this one.
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They find a way to tie it up and then I believe they have bases
9:27
loaded or it was at least two men on with one out, couldn't
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get the run home to win the game.
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And those chances in in extra innings when you have the in
9:35
opportunities to end the game and you don't, it almost it
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always feels like you're going to lose because like you had
9:40
your chance, you missed it and now you blew it and you're going
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to you're not going to get the win.
9:44
So anyway, what frustrating nights last two nights with the
9:47
Cardinals, but I'm on them tonight or today.
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So pitch a match up here. We have the Angels going with
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you say Kikuchi O and 14.5 O ERA.
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The Cardinals, meanwhile, 3 and two, they're going to go with
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Sonny Gray. Come on, Sonny Gray one and O
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3.6 O ERA. So what are you seeing across
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the market here? Will this game open?
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Saint Louis Cardinals around a -, 135 home favorite.
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We've now seen the Cardinals get steamed up to around -140 -,
10:13
145. They even got as high as I
10:15
believe like -150 -, 155 earlier today.
10:18
So yeah, basically all movement has been in favor of the
10:21
Cardinals. That's notable to me because
10:23
again, I guess the obvious play would be take the Angels.
10:27
They find ways to win these games are getting plus money.
10:29
Yet we're seeing this line move in favor of Saint Louis, who has
10:32
let you know, me and you and a lot of betters down the last
10:34
couple nights. But aside from that line move,
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pretty good bet split on the Cardinals at DraftKings, 79% of
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money line bets, 84% of money line dollars.
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So good low bets, higher dollar split.
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Then once again, layering on a ton of systems on the Cardinals
10:49
favorites, awful loss 18 and eight this year, 69 percent, 17%
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ROI. Home favorites 34 and 1668
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percent, 13% ROI. Non division home favorites with
11:01
Steam $0.10 or more, 18 and 675 percent, 25% ROI.
11:06
And then lastly, interleague home favorites 17 and 674
11:10
percent, 20% ROI. I even dug up another system for
11:14
you. If, if you don't know me yet,
11:16
this is called the all systems go sports betting podcast.
11:19
I'm a big systems guy, but here's another one that I I was
11:22
like, you know what I wonder how teams do when they're trying to
11:26
avoid a sweep when they're favored and they lost the first
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two games of the series. Guess what?
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They they performed pretty well. Favorites who have lost the
11:34
first two games of a three-game series and are are again favored
11:37
in that series finale, looking to avoid the sweep.
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They're 143 and 8161% with a 7% ROI since 2022.
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And that's actually, I was even going back further and it's been
11:50
profitable, you know, last decade or more.
11:52
So hopefully the Cardinals can get us a win today.
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And again, Cardinals do have the better bats.
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Hopefully they show up today and get to Kikuchi.
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They're hitting 289 with 30 runs scored.
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Angels hitting two O 1, only 19 runs scored.
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So Saint Louis, you owe us a win today.
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Come on Cardinals, I got the cards around -140 next one for
12:14
you right back to the well. Cleveland Guardians, San Diego
12:18
Padres, 4:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, Padres come in six.
12:22
And oh, they're playing great. They've taken the first two
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games of this three-game set. They won the opener 7:00 to 2:00
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as a -, 135 home favorite. And they won again yesterday for
12:31
US 7 nothing as a -, 175 home favorite.
12:35
So pitch you match up for this one.
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We got the Guardians going with ready been lively.
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O&O 4.5 OERA and the Padres are going to counter with fellow
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ready Dylan Cease. O&O 6.23 ERA.
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Now what do we see across the market?
12:50
Well, once again, if it ain't broke, we ain't fixing it.
12:53
Line move toward the San Diego Padres.
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They open as low as -165 -, 170. Now they're up to -180 -, 185 S
13:02
about a 10/15 cent steam move in favor of the Padres.
13:06
Now at DraftKings, the fathers are getting over 80% of money
13:10
line bets in dollars. So heavy one way support from
13:12
both the betting public Publix pub probably just saying, hey,
13:16
San Diego, you know, you got a great record.
13:18
Might as well just keep riding them.
13:19
I would also kind of mention this to like I'm telling you,
13:23
the public, you know, in terms of the ticket count, but you
13:27
know, a lot of the public is at work today.
13:29
So day games. I almost feel like maybe there's
13:31
less public and there's maybe more smart money whose job it is
13:34
to bet on sports versus the public who, you know, got to go
13:37
to work, got to got to go to the office, got to do what you got
13:40
to do. I feel like the public has more
13:42
of a say in night games sometimes or or most of the time
13:45
because they're at home from work.
13:47
And again, they can get down and watch the games because the
13:49
public doesn't want to bet games they cannot watch, which makes
13:52
sense. I get it.
13:54
But you don't want to kind of just only bet games just because
13:56
you can see them. You want to bet games because
13:58
whether you can see them or not, they're presenting value.
14:00
You're, you know, identifying sharp action.
14:03
But anyway, line move toward the Padres and once again, all these
14:07
system matches, same ones on Cincinnati, a lot of the same on
14:10
Saint Louis, also match with San Diego.
14:13
Home favorites, 74% this year. Interleague favorites who made
14:17
the playoffs the previous year. I didn't tell you the guys this
14:19
one yet. They're 11 and 379% this year.
14:22
31% ROI. Interleague favorites off a win,
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72% home favorites, 68%. Tons of matches here on San
14:31
Diego. Another supplementary factor,
14:33
he's got a relatively big favorite here in San Diego with
14:35
a very low total, 7 1/2. So correlative betting for your
14:39
amount of expected run scored, more likely to come from quote
14:41
UN quote, that better team. And then the Padres, they're
14:45
looking great right now. They're hitting 299 on the year,
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31 run scored. Cleveland's only hitting 2/24/18
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run scored. Padres also have the better
14:53
pitching staff. They have a team area of 1.5 O
14:56
versus 4.19 for the Guardians. So the pods came through for us
15:00
last night. We got a lot of system matches
15:02
in a line move on them again today.
15:04
I'm going San Diego here, guys, shop around.
15:06
I was able to get the pods -180 I believe that was either ESPN
15:10
better FanDuel. Now last game of the night.
15:13
You know me or maybe you don't, but I'm a Red Sox fan, born and
15:16
raised in in in New England. But I'm going with the Yankees
15:19
tonight, the torpedo bat Yankees, the Yankees.
15:23
Let's talk about this one. This is a seven O 5 first pitch
15:26
tonight. I believe it's Prime Video, so I
15:28
guess I got to dust off my prime membership.
15:30
I canceled it when Thursday Night Football ended.
15:33
But anyway, Arizona comes in three and two.
15:36
They won the first game of the series last night.
15:39
If you didn't see that, they were down late and I believe it
15:43
was Eugenio Suarez had a Grand Slam against the the bullpen
15:47
there of the Yankees and they won that game 7:00 to 5:00 as
15:50
around a -, 125 road favorite. The Yankees three and one coming
15:54
into the season. Again, first loss last night.
15:57
Now let's talk about the pitching matchup.
15:59
We have Zach Gallon, the righty going for Arizona O and 1 ERA of
16:03
nine. He'll be opposed by Carlos
16:05
Rodon, the lefty for the Yankees.
16:07
He's one and O with an ERA of 1.69.
16:09
So what have you seen across the market here?
16:12
Well, big movement told the Yankees, Yankees open this game
16:15
as low as -120 -, 125. Now they've been bet up to
16:19
around -135 even some shops as high as -140.
16:24
So pretty good one way steam in favor of the Yankees.
16:27
Now the Yankees are getting around 80% of bets, 90% of
16:30
dollars at DraftKings. So again, heavy pro and Joe
16:33
support. But again, you know, this is a
16:37
bet split here that probably reflects more smart money than
16:40
it does public money because again, Publix at work today.
16:44
But couple things to like about the Yankees in this one.
16:46
One favorite low total total. This one is 7 1/2.
16:49
It actually fell 8 down to 7 1/2.
16:52
So fair amount of expected run scored more likely to come from
16:54
again, quote UN quote that better team.
16:57
When I say better team, it's not a commentary on the team's
16:59
overall in the season. It's just today the better team
17:02
based on who's favorite. But once again, a ton of system
17:05
matches on the Yankees home favorites 34 and 1668 percent,
17:10
14% ROI favorites awful loss. The bounce back system 18 and
17:15
869 percent 18% ROI. Non division favorites with
17:19
steam $0.10 or more, 18 and 675 percent 25% ROI.
17:24
Interleague home favorite 17 and 674 percent, 20% ROI and
17:28
interleague home favorite who made the playoffs the previous
17:31
year, 11 and 379 percent 31% ROI.
17:35
So you have all these system matches on the Yankees, the
17:38
lines going to the Yankees. We got a hefty bet split pro and
17:42
Joe bets in dollars on New York and we got a correlative
17:45
favorite low total. So again, all these games say
17:48
Reds, cards, Padres, Yankees, all with line movement, low
17:52
bets, higher dollars and good system match advantages.
17:56
So I'm playing the Yankees here. I got New York at -135 S Reds,
18:01
Cardinals, Padres, Yankees. Can we find a way to scratch and
18:04
claw and get three of them? That is the goal.
18:08
So that about wraps it up for episode 248 of the All Systems
18:12
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
18:15
Of course. This is the part of the pod
18:16
where we wrap things up and I start first by saying thank you.
18:19
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
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busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
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sharp data-driven breakdowns with me.
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If you do enjoy this pod and you value the insights, thank you.
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I appreciate you. Could you do me a solid?
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great as well to help us grow the ASG pod.
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Next, if you enjoy this style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
19:00
sharp contrarian bedding, there are other ways.
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I'm not going to say this is the only way, but this is the way
19:06
that you know, I've learned over time, refined over time, and if
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you keep grinding, I know it works.
19:11
So if you want to learn more about data-driven betting, if
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you want to support the pod, if you want to let me know you
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appreciate the pod. If you have like, you know,
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someone in your life, a family member, a colleague, someone in
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a newly legalized state, someone who loves betting but loses a
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ton, maybe you should, maybe you should go to Amazon.com and type
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a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
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So pick one up. I'll sign it for you and buy a
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beer or ginger ale. Also, I would love for you guys
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It's called the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook if you want to
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really proud of it. Can't wait for you guys to check
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I appreciate you. Thank you guys so much.
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Next, if you haven't done it yet, what are you doing?
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Go download Rhythm and Juice Reel, my two favorite sports
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bartender, hopefully I give you good insight.
21:08
Make sure you tip your server, tip your bartender, tip your
21:10
podcast host. I consider following those $4.99
21:14
a week plays on Juice Reel as a tip jar.
21:17
So I'd very much appreciate if you guys wanted to get those
21:20
plays. Hopefully you'll get them
21:21
earlier. Beat some closing lines again,
21:24
you can you can sign up via the Juice Reel app also tweeted out
21:28
each day, so you can just check my Twitter page.
21:30
You're also going to get not just the ASG pod best bets, but
21:33
the robo Jackson best bet picks. The AI generated plays each day
21:37
Pair of them come out at noon every single day.
21:39
Eastern Time. You also get the arbitrage plays
21:42
sharp much indicators shop for the best line futures and
21:45
syncing up your sports books with your apps.
21:48
You also get the dollar breakdowns from everyone in the
21:51
app who have synced synced their books and you can see real
21:54
dollar amounts on spread money line in total for every game.
21:56
It's pretty cool. So download Rhythm, download
21:58
Juice Reel, give them a five star review in the App Store.
22:01
That would make my buddy James Santor and Ricky Gold both very
22:04
happy. Next, if you don't have a live
22:08
odds page, how are you betting on sports?
22:10
I don't get it. I don't know how you how you're
22:11
doing it. You're blind without a live odds
22:13
page. You need a live odds page to
22:15
show you every game on the board, all your options, but
22:19
more importantly opening numbers, how the lines have
22:21
moved, identify line movement direction, buy back, pull up
22:26
line history, shop for the best line, pick off that you know
22:29
better money, line price or that dog plus 5 1/2 instead of plus
22:33
five. Really makes a world of
22:34
difference. And I know there's a lot of live
22:36
odds pages out there, but I I would highly recommend giving
22:39
odds Logic a try. Go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
22:44
Make sure you add the slash Josh 123 at the end of odds logic.com
22:48
and that'll give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off your
22:51
first month. And I think you're going to like
22:53
it if you want to keep it it that it is then 99 bucks a month
22:56
again sounds like a lot, but there aren't live odds pages out
22:59
there. I know one in particular at 699
23:01
a month. So pretty good value, crisp
23:04
interface will really help you to get the best best price and
23:08
and follow the market. That's the most important thing.
23:11
So that about does it for episode 248 of the ASG pod.
23:15
As always, I'm going to leave you with a couple things.
23:16
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
23:20
River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
23:23
Mohegan Sun down to Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or
23:26
Plain Ridge Park Casino, or MGM Springfield, or the Nash up in
23:29
Nashua, NH. Or of course, out in the desert
23:32
where the true grinders get down.
23:33
Or Billy Walters sends his number runners with lowest juice
23:37
possible S the South Point or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays
23:40
jumping in the stadium swim pool when they cash a big ticket at
23:43
Circa. Wherever it may be, you're going
23:45
to walk up to me, you're going to show him a beautiful Dodgers
23:49
value play, Mookie Betts coming through a Padres play, a Rays
23:53
play. But whatever you do Cardinals,
23:56
you're really going to break my heart three nights in a row.
23:58
You better not you better win today.
24:00
But anyway, guys, first one's on me, next one's on you.
24:02
We'll post about the book and sweat some data-driven plays
24:05
together. So without further ado, a three
24:08
in one night, A1 in three night, a four and O night and O in four
24:11
night, A2 and two night again, good, bad, indifferent, hot,
24:15
cold, somewhere in the middle, grinding.
24:16
As always, we stick to the model, stick to the blueprint
24:19
bet betting games of their head and not our heart, games that
24:22
fit the model against the public with the house, with the pros,
24:25
flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
24:28
If we can do that, and I'm confident that we can, then
24:31
we're going to succeed long term.
24:33
So have a great Wednesday, everybody be right back at it
24:36
for tomorrow. That'll be a big thirsty
24:37
Thursday. It'll be edition 249 of the All
24:41
Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
24:44
Good luck everybody and have a great Wednesday.