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Transcript

Felix Prehn - The Next Stock Market Wealth Transfer has Begun + Stock Market News 18 March 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to the pre-market life.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: As I pop some electrolytes into my water a little bit too much, in this case it's exploding.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: I want to make sure that you are the best informed investor there is out there today and this week, and for that reason, I want to share with you exactly what's going on here.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Let me share my screen with you.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: This is what we want to go through today, but I want to teach you and make you understand and help you understand who are Wall Street's secret buyers, what's brewing underneath the surface.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: We've got to go through all the negative stuff there, like who's selling and whatnot, and then I want to explain to you and show you literally what is the greatest indicator of all, like the one thing that if you understand that, everything else becomes clear.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: I'll show you the real recession, because there's genuine concern again about a potential recession and the credit shock.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Plus.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: There's a bonus here.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: I want to make sure you walk away from today's session having learned how to spot the market top, and then maybe tomorrow I'll teach you how to spot the market bottom, because it might be a little bit more useful.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: So I'm slapping my electrolytes here Now.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: We are, of course, joined by my chief researcher.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: He's sleeping on the rug behind me.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Winston, come on, show your little face.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Where are you?
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Where are you Right here?
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Can you not Hiding behind the chair here?
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Any thoughts on the market today?
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: He saw the Tesla stock this morning.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: He's feeling a little bit sad, aren't you, winston?
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: A little bit sad?
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: No, he's actually just tired.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: He's feeling fantastic, so let's dive straight into it.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: If this will be useful for you, if this is something you want to know and learn all six points, then write number six in the chat here and that way I know what's going on.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Sounds crackling again.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: This is really quite annoying, isn't it?
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know if this is a YouTube issue or on our end.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: It's a bit irritating.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: I'll try to figure it out.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: I might have to do some test live streams tomorrow or something, but we will soldier through it.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Okay, lots of sixes, even six sixes.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Love that, guys.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Thanks for letting me know that you are listening in a way.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: So let me show you, first of all, who's selling.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: The bastards on Wall Street, no, sorry, the cockroaches on Wall Street.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Sorry, the lovely people who make the financial market what it is.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: That's good, isn't it?
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: They're selling.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: What does Primebook mean?
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: This is basically funds.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: So funds are selling stocks at gloriously fast paces.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: I mean selling.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: We've seen since like 2021, which was a little bit stronger.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: So what the heck is going on there?
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Why are they selling?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: What does it all mean and what can we learn from it?
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Well, let's go through a few things here.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: The orange one said he won't rule out a recession.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: One said he won't rule out a recession.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: He said I hate to predict things like that, which isn't really fantastic, is it so?
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: He didn't say there was a recession.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: He didn't say there wouldn't be a recession, but he just said I don't want to predict things like that.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Of course, markets are like I'm sorry, what?
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: You're a politician?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: You're meant to tell us everything will be glorious and fine and there is no risk and we should just keep buying the dip because everything goes up forever after, doesn't it?
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Well, yes, so what happens afterwards?
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: The sheep start googling recessions.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: We've now got the most Google searches for the word recession since 2022 or 2020.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Equally, none of us COVID right and therefore people talk about it.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: You see the headlines and if people get more cautious, they spend a little bit less, they start paying off their credit card debt.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: They start stop shopping.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: They eat out a little bit less.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: They start paying off their credit card debt.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: They start to stop shopping.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: They eat out a little bit less.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: They might cancel that holiday and they might not ask for the raise, and therefore, recessions become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Everyone talks about them, which is important.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Lenny, you need your 10,000 square foot mansion.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Why only 10,000 square foot?
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Why not 20,000?
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Discount year says Lenny.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Discount year says Lenny.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Yes, that's one way of looking at it.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Stocks are looking nice and cheap.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: So what happens to the S&P in a recession?
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Well, in a recession this here is the big R the recession we typically go down 30%.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Yes, we're only down about 9% so far, so we would go down another 21%.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: How would you feel if the market went down 21%?
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Would you be like, oh, it's an amazing opportunity.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Or would you be like, oh, my God, why me?
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Why me, which is quite human?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Now, if you look back at the stock chart this is the NASDAQ and you say you look to the 2022 dip trading at $260 on the NASDAQ and you say you look to the 2022 dip trading at $260 on the NASDAQ, you probably look at that and go that was an amazing buying opportunity, wasn't it?
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: That was such a good time to buy.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Well, right now we're up here.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: If we went down another 20%, we'd be down somewhere in the 300 range.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: But when you look at that as a great, glorious opportunity, some of you would say, jerome, you think it's an opportunity.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Or why me, says Carl.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: But no, most people will just go.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: This is terrible, this is horrible.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: It's the end of the world.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: I've stopped buying stocks.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: You see how our psychology makes us slightly mad.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: We're not rational.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Humans always say, oh be rational.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Humans are not rational, right?
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, just go outside, just meet some of them.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: They're not rational.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Golden retrievers very rational.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: You throw a ball, they run after it.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: They might not bring it back exactly, but it's pretty pretty.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Humans not so much.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of the recession scenario that we've got going on.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: So are you going to buy stocks in this dip, sell-off recession, whatever might come?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Well, I think you only will if you've literally programmed yourself, reprogrammed yourself, to smile when the market goes down, being a bit schizophrenic.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Like the market's crashing and you're going brilliant.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: This is amazing.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I'm loving this seriously.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: And that's what we do we turn you into schizophrenics.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: In all seriousness.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: We teach you how to sell near the top and how to buy near the bottom.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Near, you hear the word near right.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: That's really, really important.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Nobody knows where the top or how to buy near the bottom.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Near, you hear the word near right.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: That's really, really important.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Nobody knows where the top or the bottom is.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: People tell you that it's nonsense.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: You see that there's a guy out there called Harry Dent.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: He's predicted three times of the last three stock market crashes.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: There are those people.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: They predict one every day.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Eventually they're right.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: It-old strategy adapted to today, and we use that to spot when stocks are going to go up and that's what we buy.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn those rules, it's completely free of charge and you can learn it.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: It's part of my mission to make a million of you financially free, and we've just hit 150,000 subscribers, which is insanely, just insane.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: It's just fantastic, it's absolutely glorious and I thank each and every one of you for that.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: For those clicking that subscribe button, it means that you don't think I'm completely stark, raving mad, which is reassuring.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: So good news.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: We need some good news here, don't we?
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Because look at the pre market, look at the pre-market and then you really need some good news.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: This is the pre-market.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Unless you are in fat loss, drugs or Exxon, your portfolio is looking pretty red.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: This morning, tesla down another 4% after going down over 5% yesterday.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Amazon's down, nvidia's down, apple's down, microsoft, meta, google.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: And did you notice?
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Yesterday the whole market went up but none of the top 10 stocks went up.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting, interesting.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: We're going to talk about that in a little bit moment.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Your wife gets mad at you when the market crushes.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: That's why I always say couples who manage their money together do better.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Literally, it's just, if you do the learning and the training together and your plan together, you will be way, way, way, way wealthier than people who do it on their separately.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: And women actually are amazing risk managers, better than guys.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: At least that's my experience from the thousands of people we've had to go through our programs.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: It's mostly guys, it's probably 90% guys.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: It's just the way the world works.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: But have a look at this.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: What's the good news here?
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Well, this here is from Goldman Sachs, by the way, it's their CTA estimates.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: So CTAs stand for algo funds, so algorithmic funds.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: So basically, the human being has been replaced with a computer, because we realized that a lot of the humans managing funds are not very good.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: So what's going on here?
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Line there, that's their S&P performance, and it zigzags.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: And then we have the blue line, which is how much Goldman Sachs estimates they're going to buy or sell, and there's a line here that I'm going to draw across in red it's the zero line.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: This chart is a little bit complex and it's not something that you usually get to see.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Mainstream media doesn't print it.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: They think you can't handle it.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I think you can handle it.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Can you handle the truth?
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Let me know.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Learn and adapt.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: At least I'll try to.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: So what are we seeing?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Well, we're right now down here.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: So we're down here now.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Now, what happens after a sharp sell-off like this?
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Well, at least over the last three, four years, we get a rebound, in which case these algo funds might buy 40 to 90 billion.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's a lot of ones there.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that, guys, thank you.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: There's 40 to 90 billion that they might buy if, and only if, the market rallies.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: If the market's flat, we're looking more at like so flat, we're looking more at about 40 billion buying, but in an upswing we're looking more at about $40 billion buying, but in an upswing.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: We're looking at a lot.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: So if Jerome the almighty, infallible Powell comes out tomorrow and says something like I love cutting interest rates it's really my hobby after money printing then our computers will buy $90 billion worth of stocks, which is quite a lot.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: So that's something to bear in mind.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: So if we go up a little, this is going to help us go up more.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: That's more, though.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Goldman's also estimate that pension funds are going to buy about $29 billion of stocks at the end of the quarter.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Now I've seen larger estimates from other people on Wall Street.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: There were some that are up to $135 billion.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: So there is also going to be a lot of buying at the end of the quarter, and that's just pension funds rebalancing.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: This is pension funds.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: I think this is all funds.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of funds out there that are bond and stock split 60-40 or whatever it might be and they have to rebalance.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: So we're going to see some significant buying at the end of the quarter, the end of March, for these funds, and that's my friend there.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I saw that we had a bit of a data outage this morning, which the guys are working on fixing, but also some really cool stuff being launched in Trade Vision.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: I'll show you one or two of them in a moment, but you've got some really cool stuff coming up there.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: The last two days, 90% of the S&P went up.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: 90% of the S&P went up.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: So there are 500 stocks in there.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: So 90% of them went up, which means 450 stocks went up and only 50 stocks went sideways or down.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Now, historically, when that happens which is a fairly rare occurrence these little green lines here that are on the chart is pretty rare Historically the market goes up.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: I think there's a slightly bollocks data, to be honest with you.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: You see a lot of this kind of stuff about and I think this is just a bit random.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: You can pick pretty much any time period on the S&P and say, well, a year later we were green, because usually the market goes up in the long run.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: I think what they're missing here is that the Magnificent 7.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: I think what they're missing here is that the Magnificent Seven did not go up yesterday and, judging by this morning, they're not inclined to go up today either.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: So that's what I would watch out for.