Latest / Financial Survival Network / Peter Schiff Exposes the Weak Dollar and Financial System #6024
Transcript
- 0:00So the FED is responsible for all the debt that now makes it impossible for
- 0:04the FED to fight inflation, except that investors haven't figured that out yet.
- 0:08They still think, well, you know, if to FED just delays the
- 0:11raid cuts a couple of months, that'll do the Trick's not going to happen.
- 0:14Inflations are going to run out of control, and when people come to
- 0:17that conclusion, they are going to be running from dollars. You're listening to
- 0:21Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find
- 0:26anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network
- 0:33now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free
- 0:38newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever, And welcome.
- 0:48You are listening to the Financial Survival Network. I'm her host, Carrie Lutz,
- 0:53special guest on today. I've known this person now for fourteen years,
- 0:58and hey, it looks like his time is here upon us, Peter Schiff
- 1:04and a euro Pacific Peter. Where's the best place to find you these days?
- 1:10For those who are looking for you? Well, first of all,
- 1:11kare I thought I knew you know, a lot longer than fourteen years.
- 1:15I don't know games that we've been so travel I don't like same circles.
- 1:19I don't want to get into the age thing. Man. Maybe maybe fifteen
- 1:23at the most seems like forever we've been on this merry go round though,
- 1:27right, Yeah, Well, a lot of people are about to get thrown
- 1:32off. But I know I'm the the same place I've been for probably all
- 1:36those fourteen years. You know, you can find me on the internet.
- 1:40You got I got my YouTube channel at Peter ship Show or Shift Report.
- 1:46I'm on Twitter now with almost a million followers, so yeah, I had
- 1:51a lot fewer back then. But you know, same website youropack dot com
- 1:56is my asset management company, although I used to be your capital now it's
- 2:00just your Pacific asset management. That happened around the time that I moved to
- 2:05Puerto Rico. I've been living here now full time for about seven years,
- 2:09part time for over ten. And you know Shift Gold that's still the same
- 2:15same website where people can buy gold for now under twenty two hundred bucks.
- 2:20I was talking about the opportunity to try to buy it below two thousand because
- 2:23I thought pretty soon that those low prices would be gone, and I think
- 2:29they are. I mean, I doubt we're going back down below two thousand
- 2:30again, but I think you know where we are now is still very close
- 2:35to the floor if two thousand is in fact the new floor on the price
- 2:38in gold. So you can get me at Shift Gold and my podcast Shift
- 2:45Radio about that. I do my podcasts usually about two a week, sometimes
- 2:51more, sometimes one. I usually don't skip a week, so usually get
- 2:54at least one podcast out of me. So you've been living in the tax
- 3:00havean called Puerto Rico now for yeah, I mean it's it's a tax haven
- 3:07for some people, you know, not for everybody. Not too. You
- 3:12have to, you know, you have to arrange your affairs in a certain
- 3:15way. But yeah, I mean it's certainly worth doing. I also enjoy
- 3:21it here. I mean I have some problems with the local government, but
- 3:23I mean I got problems with a lot of governments. But yeah, they
- 3:29haven't really treated me that well. But the income tax rates are low,
- 3:34so from that respect, you know, yeah, they don't take take most
- 3:38of my income like the US government does. So you pay you pay uh
- 3:43a zero percent on capital gains which you know includes federal because I pay no
- 3:46federal capital gains living here, so I pay four percent I mean zero percent
- 3:51capital gains in Puerto Rico, and I pay four percent on the vast majority
- 3:55of my income four percent tax. Yeah, and that's the that's the so
- 4:00I don't have to worry about the federal tax for that. I only pay
- 4:02federal taxes on my non Puerto Rican sourced income, which would be you know,
- 4:08dividends on a gold mining stock you know there, I would pay US
- 4:12tax on those dividends. But if I sell the stock in a profit,
- 4:14I pay no tax on that, right right? Well, who would think
- 4:17you would be an ex patriot in your own country. I remember years ago
- 4:23meeting British people who are living in the Monaco because they basically paid into taxes
- 4:29and the people too. So yeah, but if an American moves to Monaco,
- 4:32they're still paying US tax. That's the problem be in America exactly.
- 4:39So when you get to taxes, we get to all these problems. We
- 4:43got literally runaway spending, runaway deficits. The next election from that standpoint,
- 4:48and the eventual collapse really isn't going to matter, is it. Well,
- 4:53I mean, the real collapse that's coming is going to be the collapse of
- 4:56our currency, collapse with a dollar are our standard of living here in the
- 5:00United States. I mean, hopefully it won't be a permanent collapse that you
- 5:08know, there's some you know, light at the end of a very long
- 5:11tunnel. But we're we're headed for a lot of problems, you know.
- 5:15And the day of reckoning has been a long time in coming. And we've
- 5:17kicked the can down the road, and we continue to kick it down the
- 5:20road. But I've been expecting that our ability to do that is going to
- 5:25come to an abrupt end one day and it's probably one day soon at this
- 5:29point. How much longer can they kick the can down the road? Oh
- 5:31though, I mean, you got a thirty four and a half trillion dollar
- 5:33deficit. You know, we're rising three to four trillion per year in the
- 5:40national debt, and that's going to accelerate as you know, we move into
- 5:45recession or as the current recession gets worse. I mean, I actually think
- 5:49that we're in a recession. I think all the talk about this strong resilient
- 5:55economy is just a bunch of talk. I think people should listen to the
- 6:00voters who are giving Biden the lowest marks on the economy probably in the history
- 6:05of these popularity surveys. And that's not because we have a strong economy.
- 6:11It's because the public is living in the economy and they know how weak it
- 6:15is. But a lot of the jobs we got jobs numbers out on Friday.
- 6:18It was a horrible jobs report. Even though the headline number was a
- 6:21beat, The headline number is always a beat. Meanwhile, they went back
- 6:26to the prior month and they knocked out about one hundred and twenty five thousand
- 6:29jobs, including almost all the manufacturing jobs that they claimed were created. And
- 6:32then last month we lost manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing is in a recession. It's
- 6:38spent in a recession for years. Even the government statistics acknowledge that the manufacturing
- 6:44is in a recession. The trade death sits keep getting worse because we're not
- 6:48producing. Meanwhile, I look at the debt levels, household debt, credit
- 6:55card debt soaring to all time record highs. So that's all. Inflation is
- 7:00an expansion of the money supply and the supply of credit. And the whole
- 7:03time the Fed has been claiming to be fighting inflation, credit has been expanding
- 7:08the entire time, and that credit is used to bid up prices, and
- 7:12that's what we're seeing. That's why the inflation numbers that came out this morning
- 7:15again were hotter than expected. As I expected, they'd been that way for
- 7:18a while. Now inflation is bottomed. Disinflation is over. It's now reflation
- 7:25or just plain old inflation. But we're not going back down to two percent.
- 7:28We're more likely going back up to nine percent. In fact, we're
- 7:30probably going to go higher than that. The question is when are the market's
- 7:33going to figure it out? And what if anything is to fed a reserve
- 7:36going to do about it. That's a good question. And but what I
- 7:41said before is Trump was no deficit hawk, right we go, Well,
- 7:47he's pretending to be now. You know, when he's not president, he
- 7:49talks a good game about, you know, cutting spending. In fact,
- 7:55I just saw an interview with him the other day in which he was talking
- 7:58about, you know, how he was paying the debt and now he was
- 8:01cutting spending him. It's like it's a fantasy world. But you know,
- 8:05everybody lies. Biden lies about how great the economy is now, and Trump
- 8:09lies about how great it was when he was president. The truth of the
- 8:11matter is it was a bubble under Trump. It's just a bigger bubble under
- 8:15Biden. And the difference between the Trump and Biden is that Trump actually remembers
- 8:22his lies and Biden doesn't. Right, I don't know what Biden remembers or
- 8:28what he even believes. But yeah, I mean cognitively, you know,
- 8:31at least Trump, you know, is in control of his faculties, and
- 8:35you know, and and and it is you know, is capable of making
- 8:39a form decision. I mean, he may make the wrong decision, but
- 8:43he also may you know, may listen to reason. I think that when
- 8:48we do have this you know, economic crisis, which will you know,
- 8:52take the form of a sovereign debt and the currency crisis, and when we
- 8:54really have to make the tough decisions about eliminating government agencies and departments and cutting
- 9:01spending, you know, kind of like what Malay is doing, doubt in
- 9:03Argentina, when we actually do that stuff, I mean, Trump is far
- 9:09more likely to agree to it than buy it. So let's talk about what
- 9:13Malay is doing there in Argentina, because that could become the template for the
- 9:18rest of the world. Because once this fake stuff blows up, where is
- 9:22that going to leave us? Do we follow? Remember, Argentina's been living
- 9:28in misery for a long time, you know they. I mean, things
- 9:31have been pretty tough down there, and so I hope it doesn't take America
- 9:35that long to come to the same realization that the Argentines have, and that
- 9:39is that government doesn't work. Socialism is a lie, and government is the
- 9:45source of all the problems that it claims to be trying to solve. And
- 9:48so the problems that government causes have been so bad for so long that the
- 9:54Argentinians were finally willing to say, you know, no, Moss, you
- 9:58know you, and let's try something different. And Malay had the something different,
- 10:05which is economic freedom, liberty and limited government. And people you know,
- 10:11don't really know history. I guess Americans in particular because they were educated
- 10:16or indoctrinated in government schools. But a undred years ago, Argentina was one
- 10:22of the wealthiest countries in the world. And in fact, they're an expression
- 10:26in America was he's as wealthy as an Argentine or as rich as an Argentine.
- 10:31I mean, they there was a lot of money down there, and
- 10:35you know, but the government destroyed all that with the same types of programs
- 10:39that our government has been destroying our country with. And you know, we're
- 10:43we're going to experience the same consequences. But every government that's ever been created
- 10:50has done the same thing, hasn't it. When they have it, it's
- 10:52been for short periods of time. Yeah, I mean looks to come.
- 10:56The founding fathers in the United States were very familiar with the track record of
- 11:01government, and they recognize that the success of a nation is defined by its
- 11:07ability to constrain its government. And that's what the whole Constitution was about.
- 11:13It was about chaining the government, binding the government, and the change and
- 11:16the Constitution is what they said. And they warned us that we can maintain
- 11:24our limit in our prosperity so long as we maintain those chains. But to
- 11:28the extent that the government was able to break free and start doing things that
- 11:33the Constitution prohibited, you know, our days were numbered. And that's what's
- 11:35happened. I mean, the Constitution now is basically a piece of paper for
- 11:41all practical purposes. The government does all sorts of things that are not authorized
- 11:46by the Constitution, yet it does it anyway, and so you know,
- 11:52that's why we're thirty four and a half trillion in debt. That's why we
- 11:54have you know, a couple of hundred trillion of unfunded liabilities. You know,
- 11:58that's why, you know, record numbers of married women have to work.
- 12:01That's why record numbers of workers have two or three jobs just to pay
- 12:07the bills. That's why Americans are drowning in debt and have no savings and
- 12:11are dependent on a government run POSI scheme for their retirement. You know,
- 12:15once upon a time, this is not the way it was in America.
- 12:18We were a very strong economy and we had you know, wealthy individuals and
- 12:24a small government. And I'm talking about just the middle class. I mean,
- 12:28we built the middle class. You know, the middle class didn't build
- 12:31the country. Capitalism and freedom built the middle class, you know, and
- 12:35government, government, regulation and taxation is destroyed. It so true. So
- 12:41going back to inflation, when you if you actually had a real inflation number
- 12:46figured into these elusive GDP numbers. We've been in a recession for years already,
- 12:54haven't we. Yeah. Well, you know a lot of people don't
- 12:56recall, or maybe they don't even know, but the Great Session two thousand
- 13:01and seven, two thousand and eight. That recession started in December of seven,
- 13:07but up until December of eight, a year later, everybody was talking
- 13:11about how great the economy was because all the numbers were still good. And
- 13:16I remember, you know, the summer of two thousand and eight being on
- 13:20you know, CNBC and Fox and CNN table shows arguing about the weakness in
- 13:28the economy, and people were saying, you know, no, the economy
- 13:31is great. It's the greatest story never told. It's goldilocks. There's no
- 13:35inflation, no recession anywhere in sight, and we were in a recession.
- 13:39They couldn't see one that they thought was in the future, but we were
- 13:43already in one in the present. The government all of a sudden in December
- 13:48of eight went back and they revised a year's worth of economic data, and
- 13:52then after the fact said, you know, we've actually been in a recession
- 13:56for a whole year. All the time we were giving you all this positive
- 14:00data, it was actually wrong. We were in a recession. So there
- 14:03already is a precedent for the government putting out bake data for an entire year
- 14:09before having to go back and admit the truth. They even admitted what the
- 14:13truth was. So I think that you know, given this as an election
- 14:16year two, that there's a good chance that the data that we've been receiving
- 14:22that is leading people to believe we have a strong economy is in fact inaccurate,
- 14:26and it will be revised and we'll find out that we're in a recession
- 14:31right now. In fact, every month, I think maybe there's been one
- 14:33month in the last year year and a half where they haven't revised down the
- 14:37job's number a month after. I mean, that's not random coincidence. I
- 14:41mean, if you toss a coin, you're not going to get, you
- 14:45know, fifteen heads in one tail. I mean, if that happens is
- 14:48because the coin is not fair. There's something itch ring right, and so
- 14:54the government is rigging these numbers. It's always overestimating how many jobs were created,
- 15:00and then it comes back the next month and eliminates them and comes up
- 15:03with another overestimation. But the media always seeses on what they report for that
- 15:09month. They ignore the revisions for the prior months, and they don't look
- 15:11beneath the surface, and they don't look at the household survey which shows every
- 15:16month that we lose jobs, and in fact, there are fewer people with
- 15:20full time jobs now than there were a couple of years ago. True,
- 15:24and pretty much all the jobs that we're creating are part time jobs, and
- 15:28they're all going to people who already have jobs. So it's not like people
- 15:31are moving from the unemployment line to some production line. It's people that have
- 15:37jobs that are moonlighting. And they're not moonlighting because they want to, it's
- 15:43because they have to. It's because their salaries haven't kept pace with the true
- 15:48increase in the cost of living, and so the only way to pay the
- 15:50bills other than putting it on a credit card is to get another job.
- 15:56And that's why a lot of people do it. And then Biden wants to
- 15:58claim credit for all these jobs that are being created when the people who are
- 16:02working these jobs would prefer not to have them. So they want to blame
- 16:06Biden for these jobs. They don't want to give him credit. Yeah,
- 16:08they're going to give it. Eight. So, going back in history,
- 16:11you mentioned the Great Financial Collapse, the GFC, as they call it,
- 16:17the Great Recession. You give a talk, you're a keynote speaker at the
- 16:22National Association of Realtors. If I remember correctly explaining to them that housing was
- 16:29going to have a bust, and yeah, well you're talking about That was
- 16:33mortgage Banker's conference in Las Vegas, right. I spoke there twice in two
- 16:38thousand and six, in two thousand and seven, And the only reason I
- 16:42came back in two thousand and seven was because I was trying to get investors
- 16:47into my hedge funds short the subprime market. No, two thousand and six,
- 16:51excuse me. I spoke in two thousand and five, in two thousand
- 16:53and six, so two thousand and six was the second talk. And I
- 16:56always spoke because they gave me a workshop where I could, you know,
- 17:02promote and look for investors in the hedge fund. And you know, there
- 17:06were three thousand mortgage bankers there, and I thought, some of these guys
- 17:08are going to want to put a little money, you know, on the
- 17:11don't pass line just as a hedge because they all make their living in mortgage
- 17:15finance. And I was going to tell them that the whole market was going
- 17:18to implode, and I thought maybe some of them would like to just bet
- 17:21a little bit on shorty subprime so that they lost their jobs. You know,
- 17:26they could at least make money in the fund. But out of the
- 17:29three thousand people that were there, maybe fifty sixty decided to hear me out
- 17:33for my hedge fund. And out of those guys, only one guy invested
- 17:37and he sent in five hundred thousand dollars and about a year later I sent
- 17:41him back five million. So that was that was his return short for shorty
- 17:45Subprime Abey, after he paid the twenty percent profit share. But yeah,
- 17:51I mean, people just didn't want to believe it. I was trying to
- 17:52tell them, you know, what was really going on in the mortgage market
- 17:56and the alsie market, but you know, nobody could accept that reality.
- 18:00And you know, the same thing is happening today. I mean, it's
- 18:03cognitive dissident. People are trapped in a gigantic bubble and they think everything is
- 18:07great and they think it's imperious, and you know, I've been warning about
- 18:11it for years and years, the way I warned about the housing bubble for
- 18:15years and years. But as the bubble got bigger, everybody just assumed that
- 18:19I was wrong. And the bubble we have now, which is much bigger
- 18:23than a mere housing bubble, has been inflating for you know, many many
- 18:27more years, and people have just made the same mistake. They think,
- 18:32well, I've been warning about it for so long, I must be wrong,
- 18:34because you know, nothing's crashed, you know, the stock markets and
- 18:37a record e right, so Peter Schiff must be wrong. I'm not wrong.
- 18:42All the problems that I've been warning about have gotten worse as i've been
- 18:47warning about them. And it doesn't mean that there's no consequences. It just
- 18:51means that the consequences are going to be even worse because we allowed it to
- 18:55continue for so long. Because in a now, allowing it to continue,
- 18:57we actually make it worse, right, we make them bigger bubble, and
- 19:02so it's even you know, greater consequences and more people are going to get
- 19:07decimated when when it pops and pop it will. Do you think there was
- 19:11anything you could have said to those people back in two thousand and five,
- 19:17two thousand and six, anything you could have done. I don't know.
- 19:22I tried. I tried my best because I was going to get a percentage
- 19:26of their profits if they got into the fund. No, I mean I
- 19:30was talking until I was blue in the face, you know, I mean,
- 19:33I haven't seen anything like that you know, it was even worse,
- 19:37I thought than the dot coms, because I tried to talk to a lot
- 19:41of people about why I thought the dot coms were going to come down.
- 19:44But the people who own these stocks, I mean, we're really like religious
- 19:47fanatics and like nothing I said, you know, penetrated their own self defense
- 19:52wall that they built up. Housing, to me was almost worse or was
- 19:56in that, you know, people own homes and they couldn't even contemplate that
- 20:00the price can go down, right, that's impossible, right, but real
- 20:04estate doesn't go down. Yeah, But what I've seen now in bitcoin tops,
- 20:08it all takes the cake. I've never seen more irrational exuberance, more
- 20:14arrogance, I've never I've never seen more smart people say so many dumb things
- 20:21other than through in bitcoin into crypto. So this is this is the worst
- 20:25of them as far as I'm concerned with psychology and occultish nature of what's going
- 20:30on. But all these bubbles are sourced, you know, basically from the
- 20:33FED and cheap money and and and you know, the crypto bubble is just
- 20:38you know, the epitomey of it. But I mean, there are a
- 20:42lot of other examples of what's going on. And that's another thing where people
- 20:47say, well, I've you been warning about bitcoin being a bubble for a
- 20:49long time. Yeah, I have, and the bubble just gets bigger and
- 20:52bigger and bigger. That doesn't mean that I was wrong about my underlying assessment
- 20:57of what of what bitcoin is. You know, Michael Sailor is out the
- 21:00other day, you know, just borrowed another six hundred and eight hundred million
- 21:03to buy more bitcoin, right with borrowed money. But he acknowledges that it's
- 21:07not a currency. He says, it's it's not a good media of exchange
- 21:11or a unit of account. He just thinks it's the ultimate store of value.
- 21:15But what value is it storing if it doesn't do anything? It does
- 21:18it does it generate income, It doesn't have any real use case. And
- 21:22he says that bitcoin is the greatest property, that digital property. He thinks
- 21:27bitcoin is better than gold, better than stocks, better than real estate.
- 21:33It's nothing, it's but you know this, this is the reality of where
- 21:40of what we're living in. But look, it's going to come crashing down.
- 21:44And that's what. Look, I've got my own money invested. I'm
- 21:49prepared, you know, I own real assets. I have the portfolio of
- 21:53global equities, a good dividend paying value stocks. The businesses that I own,
- 22:00I invest in for myself and clients are selling uh uh services or providing
- 22:04services, producing manufacturing products, harvesting resources that the world needs, that their
- 22:11customers need, that they're going to keep paying for if they raise their prices,
- 22:15they're going to keep buying, and the companies are going to keep paying
- 22:18me dividends. I've got a lot of resource type stocks. I've been loaded
- 22:22up, you know on the gold mining stocks. Uh. They've been giving
- 22:25them away. In fact, a lot of people recently I've been selling their
- 22:27gold stocks and their goal to buy bitcoin ETFs, which has been a godsend
- 22:33for people like me and my clients. This gives us more opportunity to buy.
- 22:37It's unfortunate that that people are trading in their goal for trinkings of you
- 22:41know nothing. But the other big winners have been the foreign central banks.
- 22:45They're the major buyers of gold. You know, they keep buying up all
- 22:48the gold. And you know, as much as a lot of people don't
- 22:52like central bankers, and you know, you know, I don't like them
- 22:56very much either. Uh. You got to, you know, respect what
- 22:59they're doing and take note, because you know it's not that they're just reading
- 23:03the writing on the wall. They put the writing on the wall. They
- 23:07wrote it. They are de dollarizing and they are getting out of dollars,
- 23:11and what are they getting into. They're getting into gold. Right, you
- 23:15have to get into something when you get out of the dollar. You got
- 23:17to buy something with the dollars. They are buying gold and they have a
- 23:21lot more goal to buy. And the only reason the price isn't already much
- 23:25higher is because you know, other people were dumb enough to sell theirs and
- 23:30so these the ETFs have been providing goal to foreign central banks. But at
- 23:34some point the selling is going to exhaust and Americans are going to stop selling
- 23:38their goal. And then the question is where are the foreign central banks going
- 23:41to get it? Because the gold mining companies aren't producing that much, so
- 23:45the prices are going to have to go a lot higher to get production up
- 23:48to where it needs to be to satisfy all the demand that's coming not just
- 23:52from continued demand from central banks, but a return of retail demand. And
- 23:57I think a big movie by institutions in the goal because right now what's holding
- 24:03gold back as everybody thinks that the inflation genie is back in the bottle,
- 24:07right the rate irons work and we're back at two percent. They didn't work.
- 24:12Rates are too low. They need to be higher, but the FED
- 24:15can't raise them higher because we're too broke, especially in the US government,
- 24:19which is already spending at trillion dollars a year on interest. We're now spending
- 24:23more on interest and on national defense, and we spend too much on national
- 24:26defense. But we can cut national defense. We can't cut the interest unless
- 24:32we want a default on our debt. But that one trillion dollar number price
- 24:36tag is headed to two trillion and then higher, and so the FED is
- 24:40in a box. It can't fight inflation. So instead of uh, you
- 24:45know, fighting in barks, it just talks about fighting inflation and how it's
- 24:48willing to be tough, but it can't really do anything because it's hamstrung by
- 24:55the amount of debt. But the reason there's so much debt is because the
- 24:57FED kept interest rates so low for so long and enabled it all to happen.
- 25:00So the FED is responsible for all the debt that now makes it impossible
- 25:06for the FED to fight inflation, except that investors haven't figured that out yet.
- 25:10They still think, well, you know, if the FED just delays
- 25:11the raid cuts a couple of months, that'll do the trick. It's not
- 25:15going to happen. Inflations are going to run out of control, and when
- 25:18people come to that conclusion, they are going to be running from dollars and
- 25:22and moving into gold. But you don't want to wait for that to happen.
- 25:26That's why you know, I'm I'm fully invested, you know. I
- 25:29think there are a lot of people that think they're you know, they're super
- 25:32smart and they can time this, that they can figure out exactly when to
- 25:37get into the gold stocks or get out of the dollar. I know that
- 25:40I'm not smart enough to do that, and I don't know anybody who really
- 25:44is. They could be accurate, you know, So I just want to
- 25:47I know what the end game is, and the only way to make sure
- 25:52that you win is to be properly positioned. Now, don't don't hope that
- 25:56you're going to end up in the right position because you're gonna you're gonna time
- 26:00it perfectly. You don't have to time it perfectly, you just have to
- 26:03be early. Yeah, all right, Well, hey, so real estate,
- 26:08what's what's going to happen there? Well, I mean depends on what
- 26:14you're looking at. I mean, commercial real estate is a disaster, which
- 26:18was not even a problem. In two thousand and eight. Commercial real estate
- 26:22went up, and now it's obliterated. I mean you've got properties that are
- 26:26down fifty to sixty seventy percent. You know, people are walking away from
- 26:32office buildings and strip malls and and the banks are stuck with them, and
- 26:37there's foreclosures. So there's huge losses you know for the regional banks that are
- 26:44holding out of this paper. The residential real estate market is very different.
- 26:48Banks are losing a ton of money on their residential mortgages too, not because
- 26:52of default, because people are paying. The problem is and they're paying three
- 26:56percent four percent and their cost of money is five percent. So the mortgages
- 27:02that they used to make money on when the Fed ad rates said zero,
- 27:06they're losing money on those mortgages now, and that they have to sell the
- 27:10mortgages because the depositors want their money. They're looking at, you know,
- 27:15losses. I mean, basically all these banks are insolvent. Uh. If
- 27:19the depositors want their money, or if they had to do honest accounting.
- 27:22So everything is being propped up, you know, by cooking the books,
- 27:27and by government backstops and guarantees, and by the Fed. So I think
- 27:33the banks are in a lot of trouble. But what's the dynamics in the
- 27:36housing market now are very different than what they were in eight Even though the
- 27:42market is overpriced just the way it was back then. The difference is now
- 27:48you've got so many people who own those overpriced homes that have very valuable mortgages
- 27:55that they don't want to lose. Right if I've got some bank that was
- 27:57Domino to loan me money for thirty years at three percent, and maybe I
- 28:03got twenty five years left on that mortgage, I ain't moving, no,
- 28:07I mean, because I'm going to make those payments because rents of skyrocketed,
- 28:11but my mortgage payment hasn't and it's locked in. And so but the only
- 28:15way you can keep that mortgage is if you know is if you keep the
- 28:19house, you know you, So these houses are not on the market.
- 28:22People aren't selling the houses because they want it. They want the mortgage.
- 28:26I mean, the banks could pay people to sell their houses, so they
- 28:30can get out out of jail on these mortgages that they're they're losing all this
- 28:33money out, so you're not getting houses on the market. Normally, when
- 28:37rates go up, you know, housing prices come down to offset it.
- 28:41But they're not coming down because there's no supply. Also, what's constraining supply
- 28:47is inflation has driven up the cost of construction and the cost of labor,
- 28:52so you can't really build the houses right, and so there's not enough houses
- 28:56on the market. And that's another reason that that that rents can keep going
- 29:00up because the landlords know that their tenants are stuck as renters because they can't
- 29:06afford to buy. But you know, the people who have these fixed rate
- 29:10mortgages, they're not just you know, it's not all sunshine at lollipops because
- 29:15they're maintenance built, their insurance costs, their taxes, I mean, all
- 29:19the other costs of home ownership are going up. The only thing that's not
- 29:22going up is their fixed rate mortgage payment. So, you know, but
- 29:26I do think that at some point, you know, houses are going to
- 29:30come on the market. People are going to die, people are going to
- 29:32lose their jobs, people are going to get divorced. I mean, things
- 29:34are going to happen, and so the supply will eventually build. And in
- 29:40some really really open priced markets, I mean there's a lot of room for
- 29:44prices to come down. You know California for example, you know, and
- 29:48a lot of these markets too. You have other dynamics of soaring crime.
- 29:52You know, we're being pulled, you know, I mean just you know,
- 29:55we're going to want to get out, and you know who's going to
- 29:56want to buy, so the prices are going to have to come tow So
- 30:00it's very much you know, a local market, right. All real estate
- 30:03is local, So it's not like a big model it where I can say
- 30:07home prices are going down, some own prices will go down, and other
- 30:11own prices could go up. I remember, all of this is in an
- 30:15inflationary environment, so nothing's really going up, right. It's the dollar that's
- 30:19going down, that's what's happening. Right, So your house isn't becoming more
- 30:23valuable. It's just the dollars that people would pay you to buy your house
- 30:27are becoming less valuable, so you need a lot more dollars for the house.
- 30:33That's all that's happening, all right, Well, I think you've summed
- 30:36it up quite well. And as my ex love partner used to say,
- 30:41the situation is hopeless but never serious, but it's looking more serious by the
- 30:48day. Here so best place to find you europac dot com and we'll have
- 30:56links to your podcast and to Shift Gold of course in the show that this
- 31:00interview on Financial Survival Network dot com orways a pleasure having you on Peter,
- 31:07even if the words aren't that encouraging, Hey better you should know the truth
- 31:11and you can hopefully do something that's ignorant. That's what I told the people
- 31:17at that mortgage banker's conference. You know, forewarned is forearmed. Don't shoot
- 31:21the messenger, be glad that you got the message, and take action to
- 31:26protect yourself. And you know, that's what I would encourage all of your
- 31:30listeners to do, is to you know, not ignore the warnings, just
- 31:34to do something so you don't regret it later. All the things you could
- 31:38have done and should have done it would have done, just do them now.
- 31:41And yeah, I get a hold of my guys at you'repack dot com
- 31:45or if you're doing yourself or you don't have five mutual funds, your Pacific
- 31:48funds. You can buy no load on any of the major discount prokerage firms.
- 31:53You know, we've been getting net redemptions for months out of our goalfund
- 31:57as the price of goal keeps going up. Ever said anything like it.
- 32:00Normally the public wants to buy when the market is going up, but recently
- 32:05they've been selling, and you know, the public is generally wrong, and
- 32:07so you want to buy what they're selling. And what they're selling is gold
- 32:12stocks, so you can you can get into the Europacific goalflud all right,
- 32:15excellent. Hey, if you've got a question for Peter or myself, shoot
- 32:19me an email k l at Terry LUTs dot com. Peter, stay well,
- 32:23stay safe and we will talk to you again soon. You to carry
- 32:27nicely. Be with you. Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network,
- 32:32your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial
- 32:37Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever