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Week 7 2026 College Football Picks for the 10 Best Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Third Saturday in October. We got 10 games this week,
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: and guys, this card has more landmines than a Mississippi
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: cow pasture in July. All right, the Buckeyes walk into Bloomington.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: They're going to see the team that took their lunch
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: money in Indianapolis last December. Notre Dame, 16 straight wins,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: and every one of them by double digits. They fly
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: into Provo, where BYU is 5-0 against the number, and
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: the line has already moved two points their direction. Alabama
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: limps into Knoxville off a heartbreaker against Georgia. And the
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Vols probably going to be rolling out their backup quarterback,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: we think. Dylan Rayola gets a shot at the team
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: that he walked away from in Lincoln, even if he
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: may not be Oregon's starter by Saturday night. Texas trying
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: to shake off the Red River gut punch last week
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: against the Florida team that beat them last year. And
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: my number sees something that could maybe make you want
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: to move on some of these. It's week seven. Let's go.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Let's cash some tickets. Winning Cures Everything, now proudly presented
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: by PrizePix.com. Starts now. Welcome in. This is Winning Cures Everything.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: It's a college football podcast proudly presented by PrizePix. I'm
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: your host, Gary Seegers, at GaryWCE on all the different socials.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: If you didn't already know, the weeknight game videos along
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: with all of the individual games that I'll be talking
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: about here, they're all posted to the other YouTube channel, WCEPix.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: So make sure and subscribe over there as well. There
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: is a link in the description for that one. Let's
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: go ahead and check out what last week's record looked like,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: and it was a disaster. Absolute disaster last week. Good gracious.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: 83-65 thus far on the season. That's 56.1% for my
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: picks here on the show. The model picks, whew. I mean,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: it was bad last week. 10-22 last week. 80-68 last
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: thus far on the season, 54.1%. Underdog picks are 56.3%
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: on the show when we decided to go with the dog. Um, yeah,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: the show last week, 15 and 16, the model picks
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: 10 and 22 and the dogs, uh, eight and seven.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: My next 15 last week went five and 10. That
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: killed us. Went four and two on weeknight games, six
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: and four on the 10 best. Just brutal. Absolutely brutal. Um,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Know the way to describe it. We will rebuild. We
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: will get better. So that's where we stand. That's where
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: we stand. All right, a little bit of quick housekeeping
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: before we get rolling. The odds I'm quoting are for Monday.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: When I say the model, I mean my stats projected model.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: It's opponent adjusted. It doesn't care about logos. It doesn't
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: care who your daddy rooted for. When I say a
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: trend is a small sample, that means fewer than 10 games.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: You should treat it like a, you know, weather forecast
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: in Mississippi. It's interesting, but I wouldn't plan anything around it.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: So we got 10 games to get to. Let's eat.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: All right, we're kicking it off with the big one.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Ohio State at Indiana, 11 o'clock Central God's time zone
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: on Fox. Ohio State a three and a half point
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: road favorite. Total is 50 and a half. That line
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: opened Ohio State minus two. So the money has pushed
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: it a point and a half towards the Buckeyes. Total
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: has climbed from about 48 and a half up to
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: 50 and a half. So let's set the table here.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Last time these two met was December 6th of last
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: year in the Big Ten title game. Indiana won that
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: one 13-10. Indiana went on to win the entire national championship, right?
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: So the defending national champs are now 6-0. They're getting
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: points at home. We'll let that marinate for just a
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: little bit. Ohio State had multiple opportunities to put that
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: game away last year. They could not finish drives. That
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: was a big problem. Big problem. Ohio State this year, 5-1.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: The only loss was 24-23 at Texas back in Week 2.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Last week, they handled Maryland 45-16. Julian Sayen threw for
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: four touchdowns. Jeremiah Smith caught two of them. He is
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: the Heisman favorite right now for good reason. I mean,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: it makes absolute sense, right? Indiana, meanwhile, I mean, they
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: nearly stepped on a rake last week. They were down
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: 17-6 in the fourth quarter at Nebraska. And then Nick
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Marsh happened. Right, 75-yard touchdown, 44-yarder on fourth down, broken coverage.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, that was an Andy Kotelnicki play. Signetti talked
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: about that. And the Hoosiers escaped 20-17. So Indiana had
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: its letdown game, and they survived it. As far as
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: the spot, Ohio State's got to buy next week. Then
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: they go to USC. Indiana goes to Michigan. Nobody's looking
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: past anybody here. Right, this is the game. So here's
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: where it gets fun. My model has Indiana by 1.41 points.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: The power rating has Ohio State by 1.2. Market says
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Ohio State 3.5. So I'm showing somewhere around 5 points
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: of value on the home dog. The model total is 52.7.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: That's about 2 points over the number. So we're looking
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: at an over here, at least per my numbers. As
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: far as what's driving that, probably discipline. I guess Indiana
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: commits only 3.3 penalties a game. That is the second
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: fewest in the country. Right there, if you can see it,
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: if it'll select correctly. Here, you know what, I'll just
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: highlight it right there. Ohio State is at 6.7, that's 74.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Special teams, Indiana ranks 38th, and Ohio State number 102.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: In a game where both teams are top six in
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: net points per drive, hidden yardage could absolutely matter. I'm
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: not going to sit here and tell you it's all Indiana, right?
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: The Buckeyes have the fifth-ranked talent in the country, Indiana
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: the 47th. The best matchup in this game is Indiana's
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: passing attack. 10.6 yards per attempt, as you can see here.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: That's second in the country. It runs straight into an
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Ohio State pass defense that allows 4.8 yards per attempt.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: That is number one in the country. This Ohio State
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: pass defense is legit. And they're pretty good at getting
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: after the quarterback, right? Number 27 in Havoc rate. Indiana
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: number 18 in Havoc allowed. As far as running the ball,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Indiana's pretty good at that, too. Indiana... 6-0 straight up,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: but they're only 1-5 against the spread. That kind of
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: gives you pause for concern. But they were number 3
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: in PPA margin. I mean, they were really good. The
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: market has been pricing this team like it can't miss,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: and it keeps winning ugly. As far as trends go,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Ohio State as a road favorite, 7-3 against the spread
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: over 10 games. Indiana against Big Ten competition, 15-8. against
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: the spread over the last 23 games. That's the strongest
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: sample in this one. As far as the injury report,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Ohio State's list is pretty long here. Two offensive linemen,
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Austin Severeval? Severeval? Y'all correct me in the comments. And
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Phillip Daniels, they're out. Two receivers, Brandon Ennis, Devin McEwen
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: are out. So the depth behind Jeremiah Smith, you know,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: it's there. It's just a little thin, or a little thinner,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: than you would like it to be. Defensive end, Wilder,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: the safety, Roker, and then the linebacker, Christian Allegro. They're out, too. Corner,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Jay Timmons, questionable. Indiana's missing Kobe Martin. We knew that.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: The defensive back, Williams, receiver, Bond, tight end, Barker. Nobody
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: on that list really moves the needle like the two
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Buckeye offensive linemen. If anything, that report kind of pushes
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: me further towards the Hoosiers. Weather in Bloomington, supposed to
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: be 52 degrees, light breeze, no rain. Like, perfect October
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: noon kick, right? At noon Eastern, anyway. So, the numbers
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: point towards Indiana, and they lean over. Man, I want
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: to take Ohio State. I'm looking to see if that
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: number has moved since I wrote those notes down. Because
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: if it's under three, I might take Ohio State. I'm
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: sure this is fantastic radio. That's still three and a half. Okay,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: at three and a half, I've got to go with
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: the team that is on the huge winning streak. Give
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: me Indiana. It feels so weird. They have not looked
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: very good. They have not looked very dominant at all
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: thus far this year. Both teams are playing slow, but
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: And when you look at who the teams have faced,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Indiana has faced a much more difficult schedule than Ohio
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: State has. Yeah, give me Indiana, plus three and a
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: half here. I like the Hoosiers at home, biggest game
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: in Bloomington history, maybe. This is going to be a
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: massive spot, and if I'm getting more than a field goal,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: got to go with the dogs. Hoosiers, plus three and
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: a half. Game 2 takes us out to Provo, Utah.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame plays at BYU, 6.30 p.m. Central Time, primetime
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: on ABC. Notre Dame is a 10.5 point favorite, total 47.5.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: And we need to watch this line, right? It opened
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame minus 12.5. It bounced all around in the offseason.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: It's now 10.5 on my sheet. Some books are down
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: to 9.5. That's three points of movement towards the home dog.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Total has dropped to about 49 points. 49.5 down to 47.5.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame 6-0, 16 straight wins, all of them by
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: double digits. Last week, they beat Stanford 58-7. Yeah, I mean,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: it tells you about as much about Notre Dame as
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: me beating my 8-year-old at Checkers, right? What's that going
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: to tell you? BYU is 5-0. They beat Iowa State
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: 24-10 last Friday night, so the Cougars get eight days
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: to prepare for this one. Bear Bachmeier, he threw for
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: 329 yards, ran for 109 in that game. Yeah, just
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: wild to look at. Yeah, 5-0 against the number. Last
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: meeting between these two, Notre Dame won 28-20 in Las Vegas.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: That was back in 2022. The last time the Irish
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: played in Provo was in 2004. BYU won that one 20-17.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: As far as the spots, Notre Dame's got to buy
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: next week. Then they play Navy. BYU goes to UCF
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: next week. So there's no look ahead. Clean spot. This
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: is a big, big, big game. Model has Notre Dame
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: by 9.5. Power rating? Well, yeah, 9.5. Power rating Notre
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Dame by 9. So the market, in my numbers, basically
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: holding hands on the spread, maybe a hair value on BYU.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: The model total is 50.9. That's three and a half over.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: The discrepancy that swings it, though, BYU is a running team.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: They throw it at a rate that ranks 106th in
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: the country. 43% of the time are they passing it.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: They average six yards a carry, which is great, number
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: eight in the country. Notre Dame, their run defense... allows 2.1
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: yards per carry. That's third, and it's number one in
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: rushing success rate allowed. BYU is doing this without LJ
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Martin now, last year's Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: who is out with an ankle. Their running back room
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: against Notre Dame's linebackers is about the biggest mismatch on
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: this roster shrink sheet all week. You look at this thing,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: and the running backs are number 137 now without LJ Martin.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame's linebackers, number one in the country. I mean,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: that's rough. As far as other gaps, Notre Dame number
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: one in available yards margin. BYU is 30th. Notre Dame
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: number one in fewest penalties and third in turnover margin. Yeah.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame's numbers are great. BYU's red zone defense, they
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: let opponents score on 90% of the trips into the
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: red zone. That's 104th. As far as pace, BYU 131st,
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame 120th. So two of the slowest teams on
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the entire board. The pace says under Like, my stats
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: projected total is 50.87, so I'm slightly on the over. Eh.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Looking at some of these other numbers,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: they're both pretty good on special teams. Notre Dame's significantly
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: more talented. But they go slow. If you look at
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: five factors raw rank, Notre Dame number two, BYU number nine.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: If you look at strength of schedule and talent, Notre
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Dame number three, BYU number 26. So... It moves them
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: down a little bit based on the fact that BYU
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: is number 56 in current strength of schedule and Notre
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Dame is 31st. But this new thing that I've put
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: in about who they've actually played, BYU has faced the
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: tougher teams as far as opponent PPA margin. Notre Dame
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: may have played some teams that have more talent, but
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: as far as just good football teams, BYU has actually
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: played the tougher schedule. Number 37 in opponent PBA margin.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Number 28 in offenses faced. Number 48 in defenses faced.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: For Notre Dame, those numbers are way different. Number 118
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: as far as offenses. Number 107 as far as defenses.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Number 98. It's a huge difference. Huge difference. So, as
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: far as trends, BYU off an ATS cover, they are
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: 14-5 over the past 19 games. BYU as an underdog, 7-3.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: over the last 10. Notre Dame on the road, 6-4
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: against the spread over the last 10. BYU, 8-0 against
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: the spread in non-conference games. That is a small sample.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: BYU is 5-0 against the spread this season. Again, small sample.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Injury report kind of makes this thing interesting, right? BYU's backfield,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: LJ Martin and Moa are both out, along with the corner, DeVries,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: the safety, DeMooney, and the linebacker, Glasker. But you start
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: looking at Notre Dame's list, it gets interesting. Um, the linebacker,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Viliamu Asa, he's out, uh, highest rated player on either
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: injury report. Bronte Johnson, the safety corner Smith, uh, the
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: defensive lineman, Jason Onye, uh, Christopher Burgess Jr. They're out
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: the corner. Leonard Moore is questionable. And on the other
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: side of the ball, you've got two Irish offensive linemen,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: which we've known about, right? Uh, number one run defense
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: that I bragged on. I mean, it's, Walking into Provo,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: missing linebackers and two big bodies up front. Like, a
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: real reason the line has been sliding towards BYU. Kinda. Also,
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: the fact that it was a double-digit line, and there's
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: not going to be a lot of possessions here. Weather
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: should be great. 64 degrees, no wind, no rain. Pristine conditions.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: The spread is kind of a coin flip by the model. But,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, with this thing at... I can get a 9.5 here.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Make sure I get a 9.5. So I'm trying to
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: look at live numbers as we're doing it. Nope, there's
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: a 10 now. Give me the favorite. I'll go Notre
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Dame minus the 10. I'm going to go against the model,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: against the power rating. I don't trust that BYU is
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: a very good football team. And if you put everything
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: on Bear Bachmeier, even at home, I just think Notre
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: Dame is a better football team overall. I think they're great.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: I think the only time you're going to see Notre
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Dame really tested is going to be when they face,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: not USC, good gracious, when they face Miami here in
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: a few weeks. So until then, with a bye week
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: coming up next week, I think Notre Dame kind of
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: handles business. They got the run game going the last
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks. CJ Carr doing his thing. I will
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: take Notre Dame minus 10. Game number three, we're back
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: to the 11 o'clock window. That's 11 a.m. Central Time,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: God's time zone. Florida and Texas in Austin on ABC.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Texas is a 10.5 point favorite, total of 52.5. Spread
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: open 10.5 ahead and budged. One book is, I say that,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: one book is at 11.5 now. Total dipped a point
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: from 53.5 down to 52.5. So, this is the biggest
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: spread gap on my entire card. Model has Texas by 18.55.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Texas by 21.2. Market has Texas 10.5.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, that is eight points of value on the Longhorns.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: The model total is 55.34. That's almost three points over.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: So why is the market shading this one down? Maybe
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: a hangover? Texas lost Oklahoma last week in Red River 27-24.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Arch Manning threw two interceptions in the fourth quarter. One
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: of them went back for a touchdown. The other set
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: up the walk-off field goal. Texas missed a 53-yard field
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: goal before that. Texas outgained Oklahoma, what was it, 382
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: to 238. And they still lost, obviously, due to mistakes.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: That one stings. But if you flip it around, this
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: is a revenge game. Florida beat Texas 29-21 last year
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: in Gainesville. Texas is at home. The playoff conversation. You know,
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: you want to make sure they're good to go. And
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: next week they get Ole Miss. So maybe a little
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: bit of a look ahead for Texas. I don't think
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: so with this much on the line. Florida has lost
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: two straight, 45-17 at Missouri and then 38-19 last week
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: at home to South Carolina. Jaden Baugh, back-to-back duds. Lenora
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Sellers ran all over this defense. Florida has a bye
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: week next week. And then they've got Georgia in Jacksonville. Now,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: as far as the stat discrepancies, Texas' biggest problem is
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: its own running game, which you can see right here.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Number 117 in yards per rush, number 72 in rushing
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: success rate. That 3.66 yards per rush is crazy. They
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: are 117th in the country in yards per rush. They
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: are number 104 in offensive line yards, number 89 in
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: stuff rate allowed. I mean, it's pitiful. This offensive line
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: should be significantly better. Florida's run defense ranks 93rd in
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: success rate allowed, so if there's ever a week to
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: get this thing fixed, it's probably this one. Florida's defense,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: 103rd in success rate overall, number 97 in PPA allowed
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: per drive, number 95 in PPA allowed per play. And
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: on top of that, opponents throw on them 58% of
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: the time. That's 132nd as far as pass rate allowed.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: Teams know where the soft spot is. Like, no, they're
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: not great as far as passing explosiveness is concerned. Like,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: they're better there. But, you know, only number 78 in
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: yards allowed per attempt. They're number 92 in QBR. Now,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: where Florida fights back is special teams. They are number
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: one in the country in special teams. But Texas is 21st,
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: which is pretty good, right? And, you know, you look
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: at Texas minus. 4 in turnover margin. They're number 96
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: in the country there. Florida's number 57. You know, Florida
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: commits eight penalties per game. They're number 113 in the
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: country there. Texas is number 68 at 6.6. Talent. These
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: are two insanely talented teams. Texas number one, Florida number 12.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: When you look at trends, and both of these teams
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: have played fairly difficult schedules, Texas significantly more so. Strength
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: of schedule would certainly lean Texas. Florida number 46, opponent
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: PPA margin. Texas number eight. Texas has faced some really,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: really good defenses. Florida has not. And I would consider
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Texas a really, really good defense. Number 24 in PPA
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: allowed per drive, number 16 in defensive success rate. Again,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: going to be rough for Jaden Baugh to be able
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: to get stuff going here, especially when the Gators are
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: number 113 in offensive line yards and number 102 in
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: stuff rate allowed. Texas number 13 and number 21 there.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: As far as trends, Texas is a home favorite of
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: seven or more. They are eight and five against the
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: spread over the last 13. Texas against SEC opponents, 6-13
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: against the spread over 19 games. That's a fairly substantial
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: sample size. Florida as a road dog under 14, they
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: are 1-3. John Sumrall as a road dog of 7
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: or more, 0-3 against the spread. Again, both really small samples.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: That's just since 2024. Texas 1-4 against the spread this season.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: Not great. Florida, on the other hand, 3-3, but boy,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: the last two weeks have really taken some of the
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: shine off of this. Florida's receiver, Vernell Brown III, is out.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: The running back, Duke Clark, and receiver, Eric Singleton Jr.,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: they are newly questionable. That's three of the Gators' better
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: school players that are either out or iffy. Makes it
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: a lot harder to take advantage of Texas soft spots.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Texas is missing a receiver, Lockett, offensive lineman Coleman, and
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: defensive lineman Zion Williams. Defensive lineman Justice Terry is questionable.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Losing a lineman doesn't help a run game that's already 117th,
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: but I think Florida's list probably hurts more. Keep an
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: eye on the availability reports. Those come out later in
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: the week in the SEC. As far as weather in Austin,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: 67 degrees. You've got a north wind at 15. Gusts
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: up to 26 miles per hour. That could bite the kickers.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: It could hurt the passing game as well. I'm going
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: to trust the model on this. Florida just, how do
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: you bet on this team right now? I can't find,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: unless they were looking past South Carolina towards Texas, I
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: would have to go Texas here. Although, I mean, the
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: trends certainly say to be careful with that. But John
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: Summerall 0-3 against the spread in a spot like this,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: that's not good. But the number I can get right
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: now is Texas minus 10.5. That's what we'll roll with.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: I think Longhorns bounced back from last week. I think Florida,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: they have been figured out for now. Not good, but
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: give me Texas minus 10.5 in Austin. Alright, quick timeout.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: If you've made it this far, you've sat through red
• 22:50
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• 24:18
  Speaker 1: off over at ghostleaves.com. Game number four, the third Saturday
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: in October. Alabama goes to Knoxville, 2.30 p.m. Central Time
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: on ABC. Alabama is a 7.5 point favorite. 8.5 at
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: some books. Total 53.5. That is down from 55.5. This
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: thing opened Bama minus 6. It actually... Let me take
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: that back. Middle of last week, it opened Bama minus 1.5.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: Then on Sunday, it opened Bama minus 6.5. It was
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: Bama minus 4.5 Saturday night during the Alabama-Georgia game. Uh...
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: And everybody saw what Tennessee did against Arkansas, and this
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: thing has bounced all over the place and is what
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: it is. Several books now are at 8.5, so the
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: money is on the tide. Total dropped two points, 55.5,
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: down to 53.5. Bama 5-1. They're coming off a 20-17
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: home loss to Georgia. Keelan Russell didn't look great. 226
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: total yards. Bama forced four Georgia fumbles. Only recovered one.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: Personal foul at the end of the game. Killed the
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: last gasp. The no-call pass interference. the interception that should
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: have been, just any myriad of officiating things. But that's
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: not what cost you the game. What cost you the
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: game was giving up explosives, etc., right? It was just
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: Bama should have played better. And it's the kind of
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: loss that either breaks you or really just pisses you off, right?
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: Tennessee 5-1-2 last week at Arkansas. They were down 14-10
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: going into the fourth. They rallied with two long drives.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: They won the ballgame 24-17. But the headline, at least
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: when it comes to looking ahead, Faison Brandon hurt his
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: shoulder against Texas back on September 26th. He got pulled
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: against Auburn. He did not play at Arkansas. George McIntyre
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: started 247 yards, one touchdown, two picks. Brandon is listed
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: as questionable this week, so We may not know who
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: starts until Saturday. If you're a Vol fan, you're probably
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: hoping for Faison Brandon. Just guessing. Last meeting between these two,
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Bama won 37-20 in Tuscaloosa last October. The last time
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: they played in Knoxville, the last two times they played
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: in Knoxville, 2022 and 2024, Tennessee won those. But the
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: most recent one, Tennessee won 24-17. Next week, Bama gets
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Texas A & M at home. Tennessee goes to South Carolina.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: So no real look-ahead spot on either side. As far
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: as the numbers, the model has Bama by 6.62. Power
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: rating has Bama by 7.2. So the market is at 7.5.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Some books at 8.5. I've got one to two points
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: of value on the home dog. The model total, 54.8.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: That's a hair over. The matchup that's going to decide
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: this thing, Tennessee can't throw it right now. Passing success
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: rate ranks 120th. Passing efficiency, 115th. But they can run it.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: They were number 16 in rush rate, so they run
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: the ball almost 58% of the time, but number 35
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: in rushing success, number 6 in predicted points added per rush,
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: number 27 in yards per rush, but the Bama defense,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's legit. Eighth in rushing success rate allowed,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: number 17 in PPA allowed per rush, number 21 in
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: rushing yards allowed per rush. I guess rushing yards allowed
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: per rush. Yeah, there you go. On the other side,
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Bama's passing game, 9.7 yards per attempt. That's number nine
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: in the country. They run into a vol pass defense
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: that allows five and a half. That is fourth in
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: the country. So we got strength on strength here. Where
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Tennessee leaks is explosive runs. 123rd in rushing explosiveness allowed.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: Bama is fifth in the country in rushing success rate.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: Number 30 in rushing explosiveness. The tide can break it
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: open here. Red zone is a weird one. You start
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: looking at this, it's strange. Uh, Bama's offense, 100% in
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: the red zone. Number two in offensive red zone touchdown rate.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: So they typically score when they get down there. Bama's
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: defense lets opponents score 94% of the time. That's 126th
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: in the country. Defensive red zone touchdown rate, number 97.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: The offense for Tennessee, they don't get there very often.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: Number 98 in red zone appearances per game, but they
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: are number 13 in red zone touchdown rate, number 16
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: in red zone conversion percentage. So, you start looking at
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: some of the other numbers. Tennessee 10th in special teams efficiency.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Alabama number 60. They are certainly moving up. Alabama is
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: because they were, what, 100th just a couple weeks ago.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Bama is 9th in turnover margin. Right there. Tennessee is
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: number 57. Tennessee, a lot more giveaways per game, a
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: lot less takeaways per game than Alabama averages. As far
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: as trends, oh, and as far as strength of schedule,
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: Tennessee has played just a cakewalk. Number 124 in opponent
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: PPA margin, Bama number 23. Opponent offenses faced, Bama number 10,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Tennessee 123rd. Defenses faced, Bama number 64, Tennessee number 97.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: And that, the only reason Tennessee is above 100, or
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: below 100, is because, uh, they face Texas. That's it.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: As far as trends go, let's see. As far as trends,
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: Bama off a spread loss 8-2 over 10 games. That's
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: a real one. That's a real trend here. Bama is
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: a road favorite under 10, 3-1-2. It's not bad. Tennessee
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: has a home dog three and O both of these
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: are small samples. Injuries go past the quarterback, by the way,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: Alabama is going to be without their top receiver, Ryan
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: Coleman Williams. He left the Georgia game twice. Uh, he's
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: now listed out for this one and out for an
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: indeterminate amount of time, the head to head targeting that
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: wasn't called. Yeah. Ridiculous. Um, but then he's also got, uh,
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: the lower leg injury as well. Um, Edge rushers Justin
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: Hill and Desmond Umazulu. We already knew about those. They're out.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: Defensive tackle Jeremiah Beeman and the linebacker Caden Jones are
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: both done for the year. Defensive tackle Terrence Green is questionable.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: And new one from today, the offensive lineman Racine Delgadi
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: is questionable. Or sorry, he's doubtful for this one. Huge
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: spot there. I mean, that's your center. Tennessee's list. I mean,
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: you gotta lie. You got three defensive backs that are
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: out for the season. Uh, offensive lineman, Wendell Moe, Jr.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: Linebacker Harmon, tight end Davis. Uh, you know, it's, they
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: wish they were healthier. I'll say that. If Bama can
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: protect Russell, there are throws to be had here. The
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: weather in Knoxville, 63 degrees. You got a Northeast wind,
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: about 15 degrees. No rain to speak or no rain
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: to speak of. Um, The numbers have a small lean
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: to Tennessee. Quarterback situation is kind of the whole ballgame.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: If Brandon's out, I understand anybody wanting to lay it
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: with Alabama, but Knoxville has not been kind to Alabama.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: The fact that there's going to be some wind and
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: the fact that Tennessee's run defense is really, really good. Now,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: don't get me wrong. The rushing explosiveness certainly is something
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: to pay attention to. It's more the passing defense. Bama's
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: going to have to run the ball. Like, they're going
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: to have to run the ball, period. And Bama's number
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: 113 in fumbles lost per rush. That ain't great. Especially considering,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: you know, Bama's number 58 in giveaways per game, which
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: isn't bad, but they just tend to fumble it more.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: Not great. Best number, 8.5. I think Tennessee keeps us
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: in close. I'm going to go Vols plus 8.5. I
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: think Bama wins the game. I think this is a
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: tight one. Especially coming off of the Georgia game. I
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: wonder how much of that Arkansas game was just Tennessee
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to this one. This is a huge, huge
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: game for Josh Heupel and company. Real curious. Jim Knowles
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: calls a way different defense than what Kirby Smart does.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: Or I guess Glenn Schumann. So... I think they might
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: have something up their sleeve for Keelan Russell. Give me
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: Tennessee to keep this one within a score. Tennessee plus 8.5.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: Game 5 is the late-night special this week. Nebraska goes
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: to Eugene to take on the Oregon Ducks. It's 10
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: o'clock Central on Fox. Make sure and put the coffee
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: on for this one. Oregon a 7.5 point favorite, total 52.5.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: This thing opened Oregon minus 6.5, total 51.5, so a
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: point of movement toward the Ducks on both. And what
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: a storyline, right? Dylan Rayola, quarterback who left Nebraska, he's
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: now in Eugene. He was ready for this one, and
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: he got benched last week. Against UCLA, he went 6
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: of 19 for 43 yards, two picks and a lost fumble.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Lanning pulled him for Brock Thomas, who went 11 of
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: 15 for 165 and a touchdown. And remember, Rayola only
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: got the job because Dante Moore took that late hit
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: at USC. Rayola came in that day. He threw for
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: 289 and two scores. Matt Rule went on record calling
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: him an elite quarterback. A week later, he was 6
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: of 19. Like, Moore was back at practice on October 5th.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: Word out of Eugene was that this Nebraska game was
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: the target for him to come back. He's listed as
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: questionable right now, so it's, It's one of the three.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: More Rayola or Thomas, and I think that matters a
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: whole lot for the numbers that you're about to hear, right?
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Oregon is 3-2. They lost at Oklahoma State 39-31. That
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: wasn't nearly as close as what the score indicated. They
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: lost at home to UCLA last week 15-17. They fumbled
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: the ball five times. Nebraska is 5-1, and the one
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: loss stings, right? They were up 17-6 on Indiana in
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. And they lost 20-17. I mean, that's
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: just a brutal, brutal spot. The last meeting between these two,
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Oregon beat Nebraska 42-35 in Eugene in 2017. So it's
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: been a minute. Oregon goes to Illinois next week. Nebraska
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: has a bye, so there's no look ahead. You've got
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: to wonder about that Nebraska letdown, though. Heartbreaking loss. Longest
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: road trip of the year. A 10 o'clock kickoff. And
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: With Oregon, it's kind of the other way around. It's like,
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: you should have beaten UCLA. Like, what? It was just brutal.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: Absolutely brutal. It's not that UCLA killed them. Like, they
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: were right there and turned the ball over seven times.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: This is a case where my numbers disagree. The model
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: has Oregon by 2.98. My power rating has Oregon by 8.8.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: The market is sitting at 7.5. So the stats say 4.5
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: points of value on Nebraska. The power rating, which leans
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: more on talent and some preseason priors, that one agrees
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: with the books. The total, my model total is 54.9.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: That's about 2.5 points over. And, you know, my first
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: half projection has Nebraska by like 6. The model likes
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Nebraska in the first half. You start looking at first
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: half point margin, Oregon is minus 2.8. Nebraska is plus 12.4.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, you start looking at who they've actually played, though.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: Nebraska number 115, an opponent PPA that's predicted points added.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Oregon number 3. Oregon has faced the number 6 strongest
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: schedule of offenses faced. Nebraska number 106. Oregon has faced
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: the number 24 strongest schedule of defenses faced. Nebraska number 102. Huge.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: Huge difference here. So when you look at these numbers, yeah,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: they look good for Nebraska. I mean, you start going
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: through them. Nebraska 39th in offensive success rate. Oregon is 92nd.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Nebraska is 10th in available yard margin. Oregon 74th. And
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: it's actually negative. Oregon's run game is a mess. 124th
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: in efficiency per rush. 106th in line yards. You got 100...
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: Where is it? There it is. 100th in stuff rate allowed.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: It's not even a thing. Now, where Oregon wins is
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: special teams. Number 20 in special teams efficiency. Nebraska number 94. Talent,
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: 4th to 25th. And to be fair, Oregon's numbers came
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: against a much tougher slate. I talked about that. As
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: far as trends go, Oregon, off of a spread loss,
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: they are 8-4 over the past 12. Nebraska as a
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: road dog of three plus one, three and one, but
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: these are small samples, right? Nebraska five and O or sorry,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: five and one against the spread this year. Uh, Oregon
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: is just two and three against the spread injuries, right?
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: Oregon quarterback situation like is what it is. Uh, if
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: more is cleared, maybe Oregon is a little undersold here. Um,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: Oregon is missing like Jeremiah McClellan and Jack Ressler, the
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: wide receivers. Running back Simeon Price, the linebackers Platt, and
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: defensive back Aaron Flowers. The linemen Trent Ferguson is out
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: for the season. Nebraska, I mean, they got hit up front.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: Riley Van Poppel and Gabe Moore, the linemen, are out.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: Linebackers Reynolds and Bauer are out. Receiver Miles. Defensive back Prescott,
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: done for the year. Defensive back Kahn is doubtful. You
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: got two defensive linemen, two linebackers missing against the run
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: game that hadn't been able to block anybody. Who was
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: going to be able to take advantage of that? The
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: weather in Eugene, 59 degrees, calm, no rain. Supposed to
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: be really, really nice. I want to go Oregon here, but...
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: And the reason behind that... One, if Dante Moore plays,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: I think this bunch is really going to get fired
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: back up. And the trend of Lanning's teams covering after
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: not covering, there's something to that, I think. I think
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: they're going to bounce back, but these coordinators for Oregon,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: I just don't know about these. Massive talent gap, but
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: I just... Oregon has not been great. They have not
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: been great. So our numbers right now, we'll play this
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: thing at 7.5. Nebraska with the long road trip and
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: the letdown of the Indiana game because you thought you
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: had that one. Oregon looking to bounce back after the
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: UCLA game. I'll take Oregon. Give me the Ducks minus 7.5.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: I think they will be ready for this one. I
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: don't believe that they are going to fumble the ball
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: away five times. I mean, you could have gotten lucky
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: like Georgia and fumble it four times and never lose
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: one or only lose one or whatever it was. Instead,
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: Oregon gave the ball away five times on the ground
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: against UCLA. I don't expect them to do that here.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: So I'll roll with the Ducks. Give me Oregon minus 7.5.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Game number six, Missouri at Ole Miss, 2.30 p.m. Central Time,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: God's time zone on the SEC Network. Ole Miss a 6.5
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: point home favorite. Total of 59.5 on this. Some books
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: have dropped this thing down to Ole Miss minus 5.5,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: so there is some Missouri money that's showing up. Total
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: has gone up about a point. I expect this thing
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: to be in the 60s by the time Saturday gets here.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: This is my second biggest gap on the card. The
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: model doesn't just like Missouri getting points. The model, the
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: stats model has Missouri winning this game outright, like Missouri
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: minus 0.9 points. The power rating has Ole Miss minus 2.4.
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: So depending on which number you trust, I've got somewhere
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: between four and seven, seven plus points of value on
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: the Tigers. The model total is 56.1. So I've got
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: it three and a half points under, um, And I
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: can understand why you would think it would go over, right?
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, it makes sense. But this is one of
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: those spots where if you're trying to keep Trinidad Chambliss
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: off the field, do you run the ball if you're Missouri?
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: They hadn't been great at it, but obviously Jaden Roberts
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: had an outstanding game against Texas A & M and
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: against Florida the past two weeks. I mean, there's ways
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: to get around this. Missouri, they're 5-1. They are rolling.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: They beat Florida 45-17. They beat Texas A & M
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: 27-6 last week. Not Jaden Roberts, Jamal Roberts. He had
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: 434 rushing and five touchdowns in the last two games.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good. Ole Miss, 4-1. They're coming off a
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: 52-17 beatdown of Vanderbilt last week after a bye. Trinidad
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Chambliss threw three touchdowns. Kwon Lacey is back from injury.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: Here's a fun one. These two last met in 2019.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Missouri won 38-27. Ole Miss has not beaten Missouri since 1974.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: Missouri has won six straight in the series. As far
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: as spots, pretty big spot for Ole Miss. They go
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: to Texas next week. This is a pretty big look-ahead spot.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss has three ranked opponents in their next four weeks.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: Missouri has a bye week next week. So one team
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: can empty the tank. The other one might have an
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: eye on Austin, maybe. As far as the stat discrepancies here,
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: this Ole Miss defense is a mess. 125th in success
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: rate allowed, 113th against the run, 114th against the pass.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Like Missouri's defense is eighth in success rate. They are
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: fourth in havoc rate. So they can get after the quarterback.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: The Ole Miss offense is legit, right? Seventh in success
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: rate on offense. Um, they are perfect in the red zone.
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: Number one in offensive red zone conversion percentage. Number one
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: in red zone touchdown rate. Um, So the Rebel offense
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: against the Tiger defense and the Tiger offense against the
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: defense can't stop anybody. That's kind of what we're looking at.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: If you look at the halves as well, first half
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: point margin, Ole Miss significantly better. They start out of
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: the gate hot. Number 6 in the country at plus 15.2.
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: Missouri only number 50 at plus 4. Second half point margin,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's completely different. Missouri is number 12 at
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: plus 9.8. Ole Miss, 103. at negative 4.4. So, big difference. Now,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: obviously the Vanderbilt game plays into that some because Ole
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: Miss was up 42-3 at the half against Vanderbilt, and
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: then they just kind of let off the gas. But
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: the same thing happened against LSU, and I'm sure they
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: didn't really want to do that against LSU, right? Because
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: they were up 24-7. They ended up winning that ballgame, what, 31-24? Eh,
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: not great. Where Ole Miss has the edge is special teams.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss number two in special teams efficiency, which you
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: can see right there. And Missouri is number 90. So
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: that's certainly something to pay attention to with hitting yardage
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: and all that kind of stuff. You know, Missouri is
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: 20th in turnover margin. Ole Miss number 82. As far
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: as giveaways per game, Ole Miss giving the ball away 1.4
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: times per game. Missouri only number 12, like. 5 times
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: per game. And Missouri's slightly better at takeaways per game.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: The trends on this one are all pretty small. Missouri
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: has a road dog under 10, 0-4. Pete Golding against
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: SEC teams is 3-1 against the spread. Ole Miss is
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: a home favorite under 14. They're 4-1 against the spread.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: All of these are small sample sizes. I wouldn't marry
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: any of them. Kiwan Lacey is back, the Ole Miss
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: running back. That helps. But if you look at what's
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: missing on that already bad defense, both safeties– and the linebacker,
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: Ant Davis Jr. All of them are out. Ole Miss
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: also missing running back Joshua Dye, two offensive linemen, Faulkner
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: and Chapman, the receiver Hartrup, and the tight end Smalley.
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: Missouri is still without their All-American running back Ahmad Hardy,
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: which is why Jamal Roberts has been carrying the whole load. So,
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: you know, if Roberts goes down, the backfield gets thin
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: super quick. Missouri is also missing some linemen as well.
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Safety Blair, the tight end Hoffman, But with a defense
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: that's ranked 125th, that's missing two safeties, I mean, that
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: is music to Jamal Roberts' ears, right? The weather in Oxford,
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: 69 degrees, northeast wind around 15 miles an hour, gusting
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: to 21, no rain. So if you got some wind,
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: you got what looks like no rain right now. Ground
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: game is going to be pretty important. I can't ignore... Like,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: here's the thing. Missouri has played a tougher schedule, too.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: Opponent PPA margin, number 34 for the teams Missouri has played,
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: number 62 for Ole Miss. And the defenses that Ole
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: Miss has faced, number 100. And the defenses that Missouri
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: has faced, number 49. You look at five factors, Missouri
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: is actually better, number eight, as far as five factors
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: plus strength of schedule plus talent. And they're all five factors,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: like the things that win ballgames. Missouri is better at
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: those things. This line screams to take Missouri, which makes
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: me think that maybe they know something that we don't. Like,
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: I wonder if this line jumped up because Blasey's back.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, we'll see. But I'm going to side with
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: the model on this one. Even as bad as it
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: was last week, I will go with the model, and
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: I will take Missouri plus 6.5. um, on the road.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: I think Missouri is a good football team. I think
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: the defense can travel. I think they can run the
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: ball on this Ole Miss team. I think it'll be
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: a close game, but I will, I will certainly take
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: those points. Missouri plus six and a half. Game number seven,
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: we got Florida State going to Miami, six o'clock central
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: on ESPN. Miami is a 21 and a half point favorite.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: That number is outrageous. Doesn't that sound crazy? 21 and
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite over Florida State. Good gracious. Um,
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: Total is 56.5 on this. The spread opened there. It's
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: barely moved. A couple of books are at 20.5. The
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: total is sitting around 55.5 to 56.5. So there is
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: some movement. Make sure you shop around. Miami is 5-0
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: coming off of a bye. Their last game was a
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: 41-13 beatdown at Clemson. They have beaten Florida A &
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: M 77-7. They beat Central Michigan 52-3. So they don't
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: just win. They will curb stomp you. If they've got
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: the opportunity. Florida State is sitting at 3-3. Last Friday,
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: they went up 14-0 on Louisville. And got outscored the
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: rest of the way 44-6. They gave up 30 points
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: in the second half. Mike Norvell's seat is getting warm
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: enough to fry an egg on at this point. Miami
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: won last year 28-22 in Tallahassee. It was 28-3 going
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: into the fourth quarter. So it wasn't that close, but they...
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: They messed around. They let Florida State get back in
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: this thing. Miami did the same thing this year against
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest. Right? 33-20 was the final score. It should
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: have never been that close. As far as the spots,
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: Miami gets Pitt next week. FSU has a bye, and
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: then they get Clemson. So no real look ahead. This
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: is a rivalry game. Rest favors Miami off the bye,
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: but Florida State played Friday, so they get eight days, too.
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: The stats model, the model, has Miami... Minus 28.15. Power
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: rating has Miami by 18. So the market splits the
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: difference at 21.5. Stats say 6.5 more on the Canes.
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: Power rating says the dog. Model total is $ 54. 54.72,
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: so under by almost two points. The discrepancies that matter
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: on this, right? Miami, number one in the country in
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: efficiency margin. I mean, at PPA margin, number one. Florida State,
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: number 89. And that Florida State defense, they are in
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: for a long afternoon. Miami is number one in offensive
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: success rate, number one in offensive PPA per drive, number
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: one in PPA per pass, number one in QBR. They're
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: number three in havoc allowed, number one in standard downs PPA,
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: so they stay ahead of the chains, like all kinds
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: of things. They score 39, where is it? Or sorry, 49.6
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: points per game. They are number one in points per
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: game margin, so they are plus 39.8 points a game.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: It's crazy. Florida State's pass defense, I mean, this is
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: a bad, bad day. Bad matchup for them. Number 102
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: in passing success rate allowed. Number 108 in yards allowed
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: per attempt. Number 99 in QBR allowed. Number 109 in
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: PPA allowed per pass. And they can't stop the run either.
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a buzzsaw meeting a screen door. This
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: is not good. Florida State throws interceptions... at a ridiculous rate.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: It's not that Miami's great at intercepting the ball, but
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: when Florida State is number 133 in interceptions thrown per
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: pass attempt, that ain't good. Now, they don't pass it
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: a lot, only 43% of the time, but they're going
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: up against the number one rushing defense in the country,
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: number one in yards allowed per rush for Miami, number
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: seven in rushing success rate allowed, number six in rushing
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: explosiveness allowed, number six in offensive line yards allowed. you're
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: kind of playing into the teeth of that defense. I mean,
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: it's just not good. The difference here is that Florida
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: State has played the number four toughest schedule in PPA margin,
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: in opponent PPA margin. Number one strongest offenses faced, number
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: 54 strongest defenses faced. As far as Miami, number 134
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: in opponent PPA margin, And number 105 in offenses faced,
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: number 129 in defenses faced. That's crazy. Looking at trends here,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: Florida State on the road, 2-9 against the spread over
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: the last 11 games. Miami as a home favorite of
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: 14 or more, 9-4 against the number over the last 13.
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: Both are real samples, both point the same way. Miami
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: is 4-1 against the spread so far this year. Florida
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: State 2-3 against the number. Injuries do make it worse
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: for Florida State. They're missing three linebackers, Blake Nicholson, Noah Lavelle.
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: They're out. Williams is done for the year. They've got
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: three defensive backs that are out. Running back Samuel Singleton Jr.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: and the receiver Devin Carter are out. Quarterback Jaden O'Neal
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: is out for the season, so there's a little bit
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: of depth there. This is so bad. To be fair,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: Miami's banged up too. The running back Brown, back up. Receiver,
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: Joshua Moore, tight end Gilbert, they're out for the year.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: They've got three defensive backs out. Offensive lineman Buchanan is
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: newly out. The lineman McCoy, pass rusher, light foot, they're
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: all newly questionable. But Miami has the depth to be
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: able to absorb this, and Florida State does not. So
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: the weather, you know, maybe the biggest weather game of
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: the week. 81 degrees, you've got northeast wind at 13
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: miles per hour, gusting to 22, and you've got a
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: 68% chance of rain as of today, on Monday. A
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: wet ball probably helps the dog, probably helps the under.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: As far as where the numbers point, the fact that
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: we've got a 20.5 out there now, can you possibly
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: take Florida State here? It feels like it's just a
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: crazy amount of points, and I understand the strength of
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: schedule difference and whatnot, but That pass defense for Florida
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: State is atrocious. And Darian Mensah is like a surgeon
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: back there. So I'm going to go with Malachi Toney
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: and Cooper Barcate and company. I think that Mensah will
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: be able to find them in the backfield plenty. Or
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: not in the backfield, but in the open field plenty.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: Give me Miami minus 20.5. Shirts, hoodies, hats, and more.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: The latest WCE merch is now available at Support and
• 54:03
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• 54:08
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• 54:12
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• 54:15
  Speaker 1: miss an episode. Of course, make sure that you leave
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: a five-star review. And don't forget, it's available everywhere you
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: get podcasts. Game number eight, Oklahoma state at Houston, 6
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: 30 PM central time. God's time zone on Fox Houston,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: a three and a half point home favorite total 60
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: and a half here. Um, spread opened at four and
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: a half books are between three and a half and
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: four and a half. Depends on which one you get
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: it at. The total has jumped from 58 and a
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: half to as high as 61 and a half. Uh,
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: that total is the biggest gap I have this week
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: because my projected total is 55.44. Um, The model has
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: Houston by 9.4. The power rating has Houston by 6.5.
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's pretty crazy. Like, the market says 3.5. So,
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: I've got 3 to 6 points on the Cougars. But
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: the model point, I mean, 55.4, and the market is
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: at 60.5. I mean, that's crazy. The story here is
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. To me. Last year, I mean, this team
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: went 1-11. Last October, Houston went into Stillwater. They beat
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: them 39-17. This year, under Eric Morris, they are 4-1.
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: They beat Oregon. Last week, they handled UCF 42-28. The quarterback,
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: Drew Mestermaker, 695 total yards and six touchdowns in the
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: last two games. Seems like that offense is clicking right now.
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: Houston 5-1. Only loss was... by two points, missed two-point
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: conversion at Texas Tech on a Friday night a few
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: weeks ago. Last week they jumped on Kansas State 28-3.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: They won 35-16, and that one Connor Wegman threw four touchdowns.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: But here's the catch. Houston is 2-7 against ranked teams
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: since 2022. Seems like a pretty important spot here. As
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: far as the spot is concerned, Oklahoma State hosts Colorado
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: next week. Houston goes to Utah next. I don't imagine
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: this is a look-ahead spot on the Houston side. It's
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: not like Utah means more to them than Oklahoma State.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: So pace of play is why the total is so
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: high here. Oklahoma State, they're number 26 in plays per minute.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Houston is number 65. So you would expect these two
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: offenses to get kind of up and down the field
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: a little bit. The market is betting that the Cowboys
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: drag Houston into a track meet. My model doesn't really
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: buy it. I suppose we'll see. As far as stat discrepancies,
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: Houston 4th in offensive success rate. It's pretty good. They
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: are 2nd in passing success rate. Houston's red zone defense, 117th.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: That is something to pay attention to. Right there. Number
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: 129 in red zone touchdown rate allowed. The defense for
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, number 12 in red zone conversion percentage allowed,
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: and number 89 in red zone touchdown rate allowed. When
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: you start looking at, let's see, points per scoring opportunity,
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State number 64 in finishing drives, the Houston defense
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: number 137. Man, that's pretty bad. That's pretty bad. On
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: the other side, as far as points per scoring opportunity,
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: Houston's offense is number 21. Oklahoma State's defense is number 76.
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: So neither one of these defenses can stop people from scoring.
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: Both of these offenses are really good at finishing drives.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: So maybe we do get a lot of points. I mean,
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: there's no telling. As far as turnover margin, Oklahoma State
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: number 109, Houston number 31. It seems like a huge deal.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State number 118 in giveaways per game. Houston number
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: 51 in takeaways. And Houston doesn't turn the ball over.
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: Penalties per game, Oklahoma State number 13. So not a
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: lot of penalties. But Houston number 78, they're aggressive, so
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: it makes sense. Makes sense. Special teams, Oklahoma State number 13,
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: Houston number 73. Oklahoma State commits only 4.6 penalties per game.
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: That number just kind of blows my mind, right? As
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: far as the trends go, And by the way, Houston
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: has played a significantly tougher schedule. Number 25 in opponent
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: PBA margin. They hadn't played... I was going to say
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: they hadn't played anybody like Oregon. At least not for
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: a talent profile, but they have played Texas Tech, and
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: they hung in there with them. Number 32 in offenses faced.
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: Number 41 in defenses faced. Oklahoma State, number 46 in
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: defenses faced, but number 99 in offenses faced. So this
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: one's going to be interesting for... Hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. They hadn't seen anything like this, at least
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: not very often. Eric Morris off of a straight-up win,
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: 14-6 against the spread over 20 games. Most of those
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: were at North Texas. Even still, some of those here
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: at Oklahoma State Uh, it's the third best sample on
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: the whole board here. Oklahoma state off of an ATS
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: cover eight and three against the spread over the last
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: 11 Houston as a home favorite, uh, under seven points,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: two and one against the spread is very small sample.
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma state four and one against the spread so far
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: this year. So the model says Houston, the trends say Morris.
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: As far as injuries, Houston's defense is pretty shorthanded here. Um,
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, they got quite a few people that are
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: out here. Oklahoma State's in better shape. They got some
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: linemen out. You know, we'll see. Weather in Houston, 73 degrees,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: north wind at 10 miles per hour. No rain expected
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: at this point. My total really likes the under. But
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: I don't trust these defenses. Like really at all. Kind
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: of crazy. Kind of crazy to think about. So we'll
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: see who can finish drives here. Houston minus three and
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: a half. Best number I can get on that is currently, yeah,
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: three and a half. I'll take it. I'll not take it.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: I'll give it. I'll lay it. Give me Houston. Minus
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: three and a half. A lot of love for Oklahoma
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: State in the market. I understand where they're coming from,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: but Houston at home, I feel like this is a massive,
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: massive spot. I will roll with the Cougars, minus 3.5.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: Game number nine, the Deep South's oldest rivalry, Auburn at Georgia.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: This one's 2.30 p.m. Central Time on ESPN. Georgia, a 20.5-point favorite.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: The total is 49.5. That opened at 18.5, so you've
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: got two points of movement towards the Dogs. One book
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: is sitting at 21.5. Make sure you shop around. The
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: total is down a point from 50.5 down to 49.5.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: Georgia 6-0, the new number one after they beat Alabama
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: 20-17 in Tuscaloosa. It is their first regular season win
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: over Bama since 2007. Gunnar Stockton lit them up last week. 18-22,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: played the game of his life. He had 249 yards passing.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: Dwight Phillips Jr., third string running back. He ran for 120.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: Gashed that Alabama back seven, I guess, or front seven,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. Auburn 3-2. Under their
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: first-year coach, Alex Golish, they are coming off of a bye.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: They lost 24-14 at Tennessee. In the last meeting, Georgia
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: won 20-10 at Auburn last October. The Dawgs have won
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: nine straight in this series. And this is an interesting
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: spot because Georgia just won the biggest game of its
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: regular season. And next week, they have a bye before
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: they play Florida. So this is a classic letdown setup.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, three in a row of Bama, Auburn, Florida.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: That's like all your rivals right there. Like classic letdown spot. Auburn, meanwhile,
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: they've got LSU next week, so I don't think there's
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: a look ahead. I think they would much rather have
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: this game against Georgia, but the LSU game is big too.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: Like both teams have a reason to sleepwalk, but it's
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: a rivalry game. I don't anticipate that. The numbers are
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: split here, right? The model has Georgia by 23.63. That's
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: three more than the market. The power rating has Georgia
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: by 16.1. So that's 4.5 less. I don't have a
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: clean side here. The model total is 53.21. That is 3.5
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: over what the total is right now. The discrepancies are
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: massive on this. I mean, pace of play, Georgia is
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: number 125, Auburn is number 2. Net points per drive,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: Auburn number 72, Georgia number 2. PPA margin, Auburn number 76,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: Georgia number 5. I mean, it's just, Georgia has been
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: the significantly better team throughout this season. Not even close.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: Auburn throws picks at a rate that, I mean, frankly,
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: is embarrassing. Number 131 in interceptions per pass attempt. But
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: Georgia's not great at getting interceptions. They're not great at takeaways,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: at least from there. They are great as far as
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: fumbles go. Um, But they were number 80 in interceptions
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: per pass attempt faced. But, I mean, Auburn number 131,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's crazy. They put the ball in harm's
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: way a lot. A whole lot. And they throw the
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: ball 52% of the time. So I don't know why
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: exactly you would do that if you're great at running it.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: But either way, Georgia is third in special teams efficiency.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: Auburn is 30th. Georgia number two in overall talent rank.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: Auburn number 16. The pace, like I said, is crazy.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: When you start diving into more stuff, Auburn in the
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: red zone, 70.6%, that's 128th in offensive red zone conversion percentage,
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: number 66 in red zone touchdown rate. As far as
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: the defense goes, number 117, defensive red zone conversion percentage, 92.86.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: It's not good. Georgia, as good as their defense is,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: number 111 in red zone conversion percentage, They're number 123
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: in red zone touchdown rate. However, they are number six
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: in red zone appearances per game allowed. The offense is
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: significantly better than what Auburn has, but even still. When
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: you start looking at points per scoring opportunity, Auburn is
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: number 77 in finishing drives. And Georgia is number one
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: on offense. Fantastic. Auburn's defense, 62. Looking at trends here because,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, Auburn has faced a significantly harder schedule, but
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: we have seen Georgia against Alabama, against Oklahoma, and they're
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: just as good against good teams as they are against
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: crappy ones. So Auburn is just kind of not great anywhere.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: This is where it gets a little spicy. Georgia as
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: a home favorite of 14 or more, 3-9 against the
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: spread over 12 games. That's a real sample size. They've
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: been a lot better this year. They were 5-1 against
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: the spread. Auburn is 1-4. Auburn against SEC opponents, 5-13-1
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: against the spread over 19 games. Now granted, Golesh has
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: only been here for a little bit. Golesh off of
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: a bye is 4-1. Golesh is a road dog of
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: 10 or more, 2-1. Those are both small samples. You know,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: looking at what these teams have done this year, I
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: don't know why you would wager on Auburn Uh, Auburn
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: is going to be without their linebacker, Xavier Atkins. Uh,
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: the running back Jeremiah Cobb is questionable. Edge JJ Falk
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: is done for the year. Uh, their lineman, uh, Ty
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: Buster and the tight end Hunter Herring. They're out. I mean,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: this is, this is rough in Georgia. I mean, Dante
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: Dowdle is out for the year. Chauncey Bowens is out. Uh,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: the running back room is getting a little thin, but
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: Dwight Phillips Jr. I mean, he's awesome. Been great. Um,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: Georgia is going to be a little banged up. I'll
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: say that. The weather in Athens, 69 degrees, northeast wind,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: about 10 gusting to 20. No rain expected. So, not bad.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: Maybe a little bit windy. But this Georgia offense, it
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: looks like they're going to be able to run here.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: They're probably going to be able to pass. They're going
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: to be able to do whatever they want to here.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: Pretty wild. At 21.5, I kind of want to take Auburn,
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: but The stat spread has Georgia... It's the week after Alabama.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: I don't expect Georgia to be as buttoned up. But
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: they do have a bye week next week. So, do
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: they come out and just let everything out? Potentially. I've
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: still got a 20.5 on the board. Auburn has not been...
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: They have not played up to expectation. Remember 1-4 against
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: the spread? They have not played up to expectation. I
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: think Georgia kind of keeps the train rolling. I'm going
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: to go Georgia. Georgia minus 20.5. I will side with
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: the stats model here. I think Georgia can do whatever
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: they want to, and I think they will get out
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: to a big lead, and then they'll probably let off
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: the gas. Georgia first half is probably the better play,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: but we pick full games on this show. So Georgia
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: minus 20.5 is the way that I'm rolling. Last game
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: for today's video. We're going to close it out in
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: Ann Arbor. And I know some of you are like,
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: is this really one of the best games of the week?
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: This is a please-don't-let-our-season-go-down-in-flames game. That's what this is. Penn
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: State at Michigan, 2.30 p.m. Central Time on CBS. Michigan
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: a 5.5 point favorite, total of 42.5 here. This thing
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: opened Michigan minus 6.5. The books range from 5.5 to 6.5,
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: depending on which one you get it at. The total
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: has dropped from 44.5 down to 42.5. That is the
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: lowest total on the card. You got two first-year head
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: coaches here, Kyle Whittingham at Michigan, Matt Campbell at Penn State.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams are sliding. Penn State 3-3. They
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: have lost three straight. Wisconsin at Northwestern and 31-23 last
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: week at home to USC. And USC never plays well
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: on the East Coast. So this is very interesting that
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: this is going on here. Michigan 3-2. They've lost two straight,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: 19-20 to Iowa and then 20-14 at Minnesota. but Michigan
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: is coming off of a bye. Whoever loses this one,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: I feel like the season is cooked. You can stick
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: a fork in it, and maybe it's cooked for both
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: of these teams anyway, but this is the spot where
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: you can get it right. Michigan won the last meeting
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: 24-15 at Penn State in 2023. Michigan gets Indiana next week.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: I don't imagine they're going to be overlooking anybody. Penn
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: State has a bye. They're going to empty the clip here.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: The model has Michigan by 4.75. Power rating has Michigan
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: minus 3.4. So the market at 5.5, that's a point
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: or two of value on Penn State. The model total
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: is 47. That's 4.5 over the market. Now, why would
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: anybody think over in a game with these two offenses, right?
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: Because both defenses have a soft spot that matches up
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: with the other offense's only strength. Michigan can't run the
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: ball really well. 3.84 yards a carry. That is number
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: 104 in the country. They are, let's see, 134th in
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness. Penn State's defense, number 64 in explosiveness allowed running.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: Penn State's defense is number 113 in yards allowed per rush,
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: number 128 in PPA allowed per rush. On the other side,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: Penn State can't run it either. I mean, you look
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: at this, this number is so crazy. They're number 28
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: in stuff rate allowed, but they're number 114 in offensive
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: line yards. And they're not going to be able to
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: run it on this Michigan defense. The defense for Michigan
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: is actually pretty good. 119th in rushing success for Penn State.
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: Number 12 for Michigan's defense. So Penn State has to
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: throw it. They're 32nd in passing efficiency, like PPA per pass.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: But you're going against a Michigan defense that's number 8
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: in PPA allowed per pass. The real discrepancies here are
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: Penalties per game and turnover margin, right? Penn State is plus.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: 83 in turnover margin. Michigan is minus. 8. So you're
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: looking at 20th for Penn State, number 122 for Michigan.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: As far as penalties per game, Penn State 4.3 penalties
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: per game, good for number 10. Michigan 7.6 penalties per game,
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: good for number 107. I mean, that's wild. That's wild.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: Special teams, Penn State significantly better, number 49 in special
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: teams efficiency. Michigan is number 89. The trends, Penn State
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: in conference games, 8-14 against the spread over the last 22,
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: and that is ugly. Michigan is a home favorite, 5-8
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: over the last 13, also ugly. Kyle Whittingham is a
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: home favorite under 7, 0-3 against the spread. Campbell, at
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: least as an underdog, 4-2 against the spread since 2024.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: Both of those are small samples. Injuries are a mess
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: on both sides. Michigan's offensive line has been held together
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: with duct tape. Penn State, their fronts go to two.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: The defensive end, Arrington the second. Burnett's out. Granville's done
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: for the year. Linebackers, Tatch and Smith are out. It's
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: just a mess. It's a mess. Weather in Ann Arbor,
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: 52 degrees. You know, west-northwest wind around 10 degrees, gusting
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: up to 18 miles per hour. No rain expected. The
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: numbers point towards Penn State here, but I think that
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: Michigan defense is for real, and I don't think Penn
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: State's defense is. I think Michigan can actually run the
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: ball a little bit. Like, granted, they're not going to
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: be explosive with it, but I think that if you
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: run– are we going to see a quarterback change? I
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: don't know. Like, the numbers certainly don't suggest that Michigan
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: can run it a little bit. Penn State's played a
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: harder schedule, but they have faced easier defenses. Michigan, number 41,
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: defense is faced. Penn State, number 103. But Penn State,
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: number 25 in offense is faced, and Michigan, number 132.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: There's no clear-cut way to look at this. I can't
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: trust Michigan to get margin on anybody. And Penn State's
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: about to empty the clip. They've got a bye week
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: coming up. USC might have just been the wrong matchup
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: at the wrong time. You know what? Screw it. We'll
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: go Penn State. Why not? Give me Penn State plus 5.5
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: at Michigan. This feels like a field goal game either way.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: I don't feel great about either one of these teams.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: I'll take the Nittany Lions plus 5.5. Alright, let's wrap
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: this thing up. Biggest gaps between my model and the
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: market this week. Texas by about 8. Missouri by around 7.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: Miami about 6.5 points. Indiana 5. Nebraska by 4.5 on
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: the stats. Though the power rating doesn't agree on that one.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: The best under on the board I've got is Oklahoma
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: State and Houston and that's a Scary one to bet
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: an under on. Then you've got Missouri and Ole Miss.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: Keep an eye on that rain down in Miami. Keep
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: your eye on the injury report all week. Is Dante
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: Moore going to come back in Eugene? Ohio State, missing linemen.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame, missing linebackers. Florida State, secondary in shambles. Bama
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: without Ryan Coleman-Williams. I'm curious about all of it. The
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: best sample trends to remember? Indiana against the Big Ten, 15-8.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: Eric Morris off of a win is 14-6 against the spread.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: BYU off of a cover, 14-5 against the spread. And
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: on the fade side, Texas ain't real good against the SEC.
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: Penn State in conference, Georgia laying 14-plus at home. I mean,
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: if you got something out of this, do me a favor.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: Hit that like button. Hit subscribe if you haven't already
• 1:15:30
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• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: your thoughts and your picks for the week for this
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: week's card. Tell me where I'm wrong. And don't forget,
• 1:15:38
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• 1:15:41
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• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: going to wrap this up. So, until next time, take
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: care of yourself, take care of each other, God bless
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: college football, and hopefully all of your tickets cash this week.
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