Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on Stats NZ introducing monthly inflation reports in 2027

Transcript

Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on Stats NZ introducing monthly inflation reports in 2027 · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: So let's talk about the price of petrol, price of
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: diesel this morning. Callia cold reckons we could see the
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: price of ninety one going and back up to around
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: three dollars thirty per liter. Average at the moment, according
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: to Gaspy is two eighty nine. This is after what's
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: happening in the Strait, but also now the Red Sea
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: comes as we will get an inflation read as of
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: next year monthly instead of quarterly. Brad Elson, chief executive
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: principal economist at Informetrics, with us this morning. Brad, good morning,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Good morning. So thoughts on what's happened overnight.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, certainly not what anyone was hoping for,
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: but also let's be quite realistic. I mean, things have
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: clearly been tracking this way the last couple of weeks,
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: given the renewed conflict and you know, missiles and an
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: explosive that been going through across the straight upfor moves,
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: and now you're seeing the spread into the Red Sea.
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, the reason, of course that oil prices go
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: up is because there is that worry around supply, and
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: clearly there's a lot more worry coming through hitting that
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: psychological barrier of one hundred dollars a barrel is concerning.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: We've seen it track there the last couple of days,
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: and I think Kelly's probably pretty bang on with that
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: three dollars thirty expectation. The question will be how quickly
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: that comes.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Back indeed, and will the fact that we're going to
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: get an inflation read monthly instead of quarterly change anything meaningful.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: It certainly gives us a lot more information, a whole
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: lot quicker. I mean at the moment right we got
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: the quarterly inflation figures last week, sorry this week for
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: the previous quarter, but of course that's sort of like
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: the average over the three months to June, so we're
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: not quite sure sort of how things progressed in April,
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: May and June separately. We only know that sort of
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: collective view. So from July next year we'll have this
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: much more direct monthly read. That's certainly going to be helpful,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: just to give us a lot more information as we've
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: progressed through. We are going to have to be careful
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: that we don't sort of read too much into any
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: one monthly increase, decrease, whatever it might be, and start
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: jumping at shadows. We want to look a lot more
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: for the signal rather than the noise. But this is
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: a step in the right direction given that New Zealand
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: is now the only OECD country that doesn't have a
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: monthly inflation measure. Now we will from about mid next year.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Brad nice to be on the show is always Brad Olsen,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: chief executive principal economists at Informetrics.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: to news talks it'd be from five am weekdays, or
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.