Latest / Kinesis Money / The Gold Reset Is Closer Than You Think Ft. Craig Hemke - LFTV Ep 278

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The Gold Reset Is Closer Than You Think Ft. Craig Hemke - LFTV Ep 278 · Kinesis Money

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: People always say, when when do you sell your gold?
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: I guess it'll be apparent when the time comes, but that time ain't now.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Andrew McGuire.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: Life in the vault.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Life in the Vault, brought to you by Kinesis Money.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this is the show that goes beyond the headlines to uncover the truth about the gold and silver markets with world-renowned whistleblower and industry expert Andrew Maguire.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: And this week he's joined in the vault by one of our favorites.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: And that's right, you guessed it.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Craig Hempke is in the vault, and we're talking gold and silver, and you're not going to want to miss a word of this conversation.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: And so let's head over to the UK right now and join Andrew Maguire and our featured guest, Craig Hemke.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: Over to you, Andrew.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_02: Well, thanks, Shane, and nice to be with everyone.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_02: And Craig, thank you so much for turning up, my friend.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_02: This is early for you guys.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I always make an exception for my old friend Andy.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_02: I know what you're doing.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_02: You're trying to get ready for the football match later, aren't you?
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_02: Exactly.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_02: Exactly.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_02: Well, this will be out on Monday.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_02: So we got lots to talk about.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_02: Um FOMC later today, which we're obviously you might have some thoughts about.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, is this guy going to be any different?
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I was listening to Bloomberg today, and they're all saying, well, he probably wanna play down the middle.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_02: What do you think is going on here?
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he might do that to begin with, you know, try to walk a little fine line.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, and again, just so people know, I would the the Fed meeting is gonna conclude here as we record this in about four or five hours, and yeah, everyone's gonna get their first look at Warsh.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we've been, I mean, you think of the journey we've had, and he go back to the Ben Bernanck.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_01: Goodness gracious, and then mother yelling, oh, what a disaster.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yelling, remember yelling at get out there?
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_02: Goodness man.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: And then eight years, eight years of Jerry Powell.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, so this is a monumental event just to have somebody other than I remember I put something on Twitter uh about a month ago.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_01: There's a picture of the four of them all lined up, uh Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_01: And I said, Look, it's an appearance of of the four horsemen of the apocalypse, right?
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, here they all were in one place.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: I usually don't get them all together.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so we'll see what Warsh has to say.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: It I don't, you know, ever since he was announced that he was going to be the dude back in uh the end of January, he's been put forth as this, you know, he's gonna be this hawk, you know, and tight money and all this.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm like, wait a sec.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, look, I don't know, I don't care what you think of Trump and whether he's a dope or not, but that I just don't think there's any way that after what was a good solid 12 months of Trump trying to get Powell to cut rates, even you know, trumping up this DOJ investigation, you know, of how he was remodeling the Eccles building and trying to get rid of Lisa Cook so we could lower rates.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_01: Did do you anybody seriously think that, like in an Oval Office job interview, here's here's Warsh on the sofa, Trump and Besson on the other side, and Warsh going, yeah, you know what?
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: Heck with you guys.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna do my own thing, I'm gonna raise rates.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: And they go, Yeah, you're our guy.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: There's no way.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: And Andy, we you go back, even Walsh has spoken about you know, remodeling the Fed and working with Besson, you know, kind of hand in glove in this new dynamic of Fed and Treasury, which are obviously plowing the field for other policy actions to come.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: But anyway, this notion that he's going to be a hawk, I think, is just out, just absolutely dead wrong.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_01: I'll know soon enough in his initial appearance, you know, we get this afternoon.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_02: But I mean, how, I mean, realistically, you know, stepping back and looking at the debt situation and the amount of debt that's accruing and you know, unfactored.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, so really, I mean, if you start raising rates, I mean, if I mean, obviously, we understand rates should be higher in this kind of a situation.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but if they start doing that, they're gonna dig a deep heart, are they not?
• 4:40
  unknown: Right.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: Andy, did$293 billion in the month of May alone.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: You know, they're just throwing, I mean, it just gets worse and worse.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the the analogy is there's no stop in the train, right?
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_01: And so this idea that, and again, we'll see if you know Warsh plays the same song and dances Powell.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: Remember, Powell always at least twice every press conference would talk about his dual mandate.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_01: We have this dual mandate of you know, low employment, low unemployment, and and two percent inflation.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see if Warsh tries to play that same game.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: You and I both know they got one mandate, man.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: And that's just to keep everything, the the plate spinning.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_01: You know, if they can somehow talk a good game and keep inflation under control so the little guy like you and I, you know, can get their currency to go a little farther.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, fine.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: But that that's not their that is that's like way down the list of priorities.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: Up here is funding the government, greasing the banks, keeping the markets liquid.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_01: All of that is the Fed's job.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: But this other stuff about inflation.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it boils down crazy, it boils down to the question.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, so we all know, I mean, it it's not rocket science to know that your dollar, your pound, your euro, your any theater currency is rapidly debasing.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_02: So if you're in cash, that's a position.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, you know, that's a hell of a position.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_02: So, and you you gotta know that it's gonna buy you less next month, the month after, etc.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_02: Especially if you happen to go food shopping or anything real, um, you know damn well it's not gonna, uh it's gonna be worth less.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_02: So, so essentially, really the question I ask people is hey, well, if all the central, if the central banks and the sovereigns and the institutionals uh in the real markets, in the physical markets, are buying and exchanging their dollars, pounds, euros as fast as they possibly can to uh protect their wealth and to hedge that wealth in the only asset class that has zero counterparty risk, then why aren't we all doing it?
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_02: And this is the question I keep asking people.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_02: Why do you cash in the bank?
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: Are you crazy?
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_01: You you save and you're in pounds and I and get paid and save in pounds, and I get paid and save in dollars, and we pay our bills, and whatever we have left over is our own currency reserves, right?
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and what do we what reward do we get for that?
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: The central bank just creates more and more currency, effectively devaluing all of our hard, yeah, all of our hard work, like I'm out here digging ditches and breaking rocks all day.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: But do you give the idea?
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_01: You know, um it look that's what and I I people have, I'm sure, heard me say this before.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_01: The the gold that the gold is the measuring stick.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: The gold doesn't change.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody thinks it's the your currency is the measuring stick because we say gold is dollars per ounce, and we shares are uh dollars per share, and everybody thinks the dollar is the measuring stick, and that's not true.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: Gold truly is it's a pet rock, it's a piece of metal that collects dust and doesn't pay a dividend and all that kind of stuff, but it's the measuring stick, it just sits there, it's static.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't change.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: It took 1100 US dollars to buy an ounce of gold 10 years ago, it took 2100 US dollars to buy an ounce of gold five years ago, it takes$4,300 to buy an ounce of gold today.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_01: Five years from now, it'll take$9,000 to buy an ounce of gold.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: And that's why you see this the daily, you know, ups and downs and volatility, and oh, people, oh my gosh, what's going on here?
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_01: And it's just like whatever.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: I uh okay, I'll just, you know, if it goes down a little further, I'll buy some more.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_01: Because the math is the math.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_02: It is.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_02: Uh and I think I think the the this whole narrative that's evolved, um, that gold's no longer a safe haven asset.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_02: Why?
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_02: And you see Bloomberg, everyone's talking about they've latched onto this narrative because because essentially, uh, I mean, I I think both personally, it's we know, we know, we all know the wiki lease cable, we all know the reason that the COMEX was was launched, it was to stop central banks uh exchanging their dollars for gold, create enough synthetic supply, make it volatile as hell.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_02: And so people, you know, people still question that.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_02: And they think, well, just go back and look.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, there it is.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_02: That that was the the actual raison d'etre for putting it in place.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_02: So um, so you kind of think, well, okay, but how can they, how can they still, because they've dug a huge hole.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, empirical evidence tells us, Craig, the US Treasury gold isn't 100% there, is it?
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it doesn't take rocket science to say, well, hold on, we all know what happened in 2013, and uh I mean, it's 8,100 tons of gold there, and and it's we've been looked after for various central banks, and and um the Bundesbank says, Oh, can we just come and have a look?
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_02: No, you can't see it.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, okay, we can't even audit, we can't actually just look at our gold.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_02: No, you cannot.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_02: Uh well, can we have 300 tons of it, please?
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_02: Uh it might take seven years.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, so uh okay, now if you turned up at your vault and said, and they said to you, Oh no, great, you can't see it.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_02: What would you do?
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_02: You'd say, I want it now, give it to me, wouldn't you?
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_02: So I and I think I think what we're what we're looking at here is a situation where the Fed has dug a hole.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_02: It's a big, big, big hole.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_02: How do you repair that hole?
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_02: And I think everyone may have their different uh view on that, but I think two things really.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_02: Um, they're running out of open interest, enough people to take the other side of their of their price suppression scheme, running out of the enough open interest, um, whereas it used to be 800,000 contracts, now we're seeing the lowest in almost history.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_02: Yes.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so you kind of wonder what what do you do when it's called in?
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_02: Because we see central banks, you've I know it's all you you're all over this story.
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_02: Central banks are saying, I want my gold back, and it's it's like they want to repatriate, and France has repatriated everything, it India is repatriating, everyone's repatriating.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_02: So when they come for their gold, and it isn't there because it sure as heck wasn't there when the Bundesbank wanted, and in fact, some of that was melt gold, some of it was brand new uh bars that were just minted.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, so and some of it had to be re-refined because it was such poor quality.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_02: So, what happens when this is a move that's happening now?
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_02: So they are coming back, they're coming for their gold.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_02: Where do they get it?
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_02: Go to market to buy it.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I mean, what's that?
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_02: Hundreds of dollars higher, thousands of dollars higher, depends on how deep the hole is.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_02: To me, I think it's time it would suit them very well to have a gold revaluation.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_02: Well, there's a lot of things to unpack there, Andy.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I know, but it's the fact you slipped.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: Plus, you slipped a little raison detra in there just to show what a renaissance man you are.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: I caught that.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_01: Uh anyway, um let's um I start maybe with the central bank stuff because I um and then we'll get to the revaluation a minute because I think those they've been dropping hints on that for over a year.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and because I want I want to ask you about it, because I I I watched in March, and anybody can go back and just pull up a chart, spot price probably works best.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: You go back between the 18th, the morning of the 18th, which I think was a Wednesday, and the morning of the 23rd, which was a Monday, and there were three-hour periods each day during London trading hours, like 6 a.m.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_01: US, one you know, 1 a.m.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: US, where the price just collapsed.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: If you add the four days together, total about 12 hours, gold fell a thousand dollars in four days.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: Now people say, okay, well, well, what's not a safe haven?
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, well, if you put that thousand dollars back on, gold would basically be unchanged since this war thing began.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: And to what do we attribute that thousand dollars?
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: To me, I don't know, you I Andy, you were watching it every day.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: I thought that's when Turkey was dumping their hundred metric tons that they dumped in March.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_01: I thought that was maybe the footprints.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, because you know, they've come out now, and everybody's oh, Turkey dropped, you know, whatever the total was, and they've been slowly buying it back.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_01: And they've done this, they did this back in 2023 when they were in the currency crisis.
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_01: They unloaded a whole bunch of gold.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_01: And then what'd they do over the next two years?
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: They bought it back.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_01: So now they dumped their hundred metric tons in March.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: Gold lost a thousand dollars uh in price that it hasn't regained, but the rest of the central banks have continued to buy.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_01: Turkey's gonna be coming back now, especially now that the war's over, to try to rebuild or unswap or whatever they did and rebuild their reserves.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: I Andy, China all last year bought 27 metric tons officially.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_01: In the last three months, they bought 24.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_01: So none of this this whole central bank demand story is unchanged.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_01: It's actually accelerating.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_01: And yet everybody's trying to make you know downplayed.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah, gold's going to 2000, don't you know?
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: Because I read the waves and you know, and counted.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: Did you see what have you seen?
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it well, do you think I'm right?
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, this thing in March where gold was just plunging, plunging, plunging four days in a row to a washout.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: And have you sensed, I mean, what what kind of demand are you sensing?
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: And what are you hearing out of London?
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_01: Is it returning?
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I think, yeah.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_02: I I think what we're seeing here is yes, you mentioned Turkey selling central bank gold.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_02: Two things there.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_02: First thing, it says gold is the safe haven reserve asset that you can cash in to repair a problem instantaneously.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_02: No discussion.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_02: It is the supreme hedge.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_02: So if you need dollars in a hurry because of this war situation and you were short of dollars, you had to do it.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_02: But they but my and my understanding is they leased it to the PBOC.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_02: They leased it.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_02: And and essentially, uh every single time we've seen this since the lot the last um official gold sale from the World Gold Council, um and and and um, or the W, sorry, the the official gold sale, that has always been a central bank to a central bank transaction.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_02: Always.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_02: It never actually hits the market.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_02: Never.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_02: Only when Brown, but then Gordon Brown, yeah, wanted the price of gold lower, as opposed to let's try and get the best price for UK gold, was it pre-announced, was it was it actually then shoved into the market.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_02: Since then, no central bank has actually put their gold into the market.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: What was I seeing those those four days, Andy?
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_01: Because it was just this collapse early in London hours, four days in a row.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_02: What I mean and and I think here's I think here's to me, this is this is what I saw.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_02: I saw obviously from a physical market perspective, we reached 5,000 solid, solid physical support.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_02: Unfortunately, the likes of Jane Street and these other guys, options guys, they've learned the cartel game to a degree where they in six days they literally raised the got the price of gold by about 600 bucks.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_02: They went like from 5,000 to 5,600.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_02: Right?
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_02: This is initially.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_02: Then they pull the plug.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_02: Now, now in the meantime, you get like four, what, four in four margin calls in a in a row.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they bubble.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_02: So now I honestly believe that they've turned gold into a meme stock situation, these idiots, and and it what they've done is taken what is a physical marketplace, and they've created whereas we've lost all this open interest, these guys come in and write options.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, you get carried out feet first if you're wrong, with you write these options.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_02: You you're seriously, it's not just a hundred to one leverage, it's 150, it's 200 and 200 to 1 leverage.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_02: And and so I honestly believe that these guys actually then reacted to the margin calls and then pulled the plug and literally it started the the whole downfall.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_02: And then in the meantime, coordinated with that, yes.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_02: Um, we have central banks saying, hang on, I need to I need some dollars.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_02: So you kind of all this concatenation going on, and I think you're right, you're right.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_02: But I honestly don't think any of that central bank hit the actual market.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_02: Actually hit it the market at all.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: They're gonna want it back.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, yeah, of course they want it back.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they leased it out, they leased it to get the money, and and it's like they're gonna buy it back, they're gonna buy it back, and if they do it soon, not that much below where they actually, and they don't want to buy it back later, it's gonna be very, very expensive, right?
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_02: I think there's an incentive, as you say, to buy it all back now, and any other central bank that and some of the smaller central banks needed dollars, especially you need dollars when when you oil price going up to potentially 200 bucks.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, what do you do?
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_02: You need dollars in a hurry, right?
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_02: So so what do you do?
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_02: You you cash in, and if also we've also seen uh when the stock market started to p pummel, uh you also see people cashing in the only viable hedge they had, which was gold.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_02: Uh people say silver as well, but I honestly don't believe that an awful lot of um fund managers have a lot of.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think they have enough to right have it be actually viewed that way.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, and so Andy, the other part of one of the things you mentioned in there um was this declining open interest.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_01: Is it as simple as what there's other places to play now, you know, be it in uh uh Shanghai or Hong Kong or anywhere else around the world that you don't need to jack around with the comic?
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_01: Because again, we're there are levels we got down to 325,000 contracts in gold, which is down 40 percent maybe from the normal average, and the lowest that I've ever seen, probably the lowest in 25 years.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_01: Silver got under 100,000.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the all-time high was 800,000 in gold and 244,000 in silver, and we're talking 325,000 and 99.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: Where did everybody go?
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_01: And why?
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_01: Is I mean, I look they raised margins, as you said, so many times in a row because of volatility.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_01: The volatility remains because there's no, you know, we got half the bid and offer size during the day now because everybody's gone, but yeah, now they're cutting margins, like they're so.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_01: Do they just is it a combination that you think they scared everybody away and that there's other places to play?
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_01: Is this the new normal?
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_01: Do you think what I mean?
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: What do you what's here?
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: I so Andy, here on my show, I've been dying to ask you these questions, but I've been to ask you these questions.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_02: But what we see you're right, you're right.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_02: What what category of open interest disappeared?
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_02: Every single hedger I know, like every single refiner I knows, every every person that needs to institutionally hedge physical gold, why would you play in that Comex Sandbook?
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_02: Why?
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_02: So now you've got a consistent physical price that you can then, and this works for silver too, where it's consistently what 13% higher, you know, like, but but I mean, let's talk gold for a minute.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_02: So, so why would I use the COMEX, volatility, a volatile COMEX, which is synthetic supply, can be uh can can arrive instantaneously five times a day.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_02: It is not what I'm trying to hedge.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_02: What I'm trying to hedge is my physical.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_02: And all I want is an exchange that is physical.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_02: So where is where you have to own a bar to sell it and you need to buy that bar.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_02: So you have a price.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_02: Now, albeit influenced by what's going on in the Comex and the and and these crooks, you know, adding synthetic supply.
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_02: And of course it impacts, but they but all they do is say, all I want is a physical price.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_02: So there it is.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_02: I can now collateralize my gold, collateralize my silver, I can trade it inside of this locked-in physical environment, and I'm covered because I don't care if it goes up or down at this point.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_02: I am covered.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_02: My physical is, and I've got to deliver this physical.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not gonna get rinsed out of my positions because some at three o'clock in the morning has gone and targeted all my stops, and they are so visible.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, you know where they are.
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_02: You can look on any chart, you know where they're probably sitting.
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_02: Right, right.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_02: So they're gone.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_02: So I think that to answer the question, the open interest that's left, the 300 odd thousand, is sticky longs.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_02: Those that cannot that are not actually uh mandated to own physical, they can only own a stock.
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_02: So therefore they want exposure to gold.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_02: So hey, ETF, whatever, um, but they're not mandated to own physical.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_02: So they're sticky and and and they will stay there.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_02: That that is that you know, very little of that is gonna get rinsed out, but I think the rest of it's gone, never gonna come back.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_02: Um, because why would you, when there's a physical exchange, why would you even bother with like a synthetic marketplace that doesn't protect you?
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_01: And so I sort of we're left then with this volatility that's not going away, you know, because if instead of you know 20 on the bid and 20 on the offer during the day, you've now got 10 and 10.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_01: And you can just overwhelm it either way anytime there's news.
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_01: And so we're gonna continue, I would think, to have these 100 and 200 intraday swings during COMEX hours.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, silver moving$4 up one day, wait a couple days,$4 down the next.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_01: If we don't get that volatility back, it almost makes the casino even more of just uh irrelevant, you know, why even pay attention to that in terms of price?
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_01: Then it seems like it's trending that way.
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_01: I don't, you know, Andy, it it's gonna be very interesting to see where we go from here because it it um the the headlines seem to have moved in our favor.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we're getting back now to the original story of the year, which when we began the year was rate cuts and Trump's new Fed share, and he's gonna work hand in glove with Bessent, and they're gonna remake the model, the new paradigm of Fed and Treasury working together and all this kind of stuff.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_01: We're getting that story back, and I'm looking more and more at that low uh last week when gold washed out below its 200 day, and then here they came, and we washed all the way down to below 4100 and reversed.
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_01: Um, as I watched the open interest, I saw open interest go up while price was going down, which is the classic sign of new shorting, spec shorting.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_02: Yep.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_01: In this rebound, um, here early this week, the 15th, or go back to last Friday and then the 15th and 16th of this week.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_01: You had price recover two,$300, but yet open interest has gone down, which means all of those shorts have immediately been squeezed.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_01: We've yet to see any speculative buying interest return, but we've definitely that definitely looks like, and a price kind of coincides with the low back on March the 23rd as well.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_01: So it almost looks like a washout double bottom.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I waited, we saw the GDX go down and violate its 200-day moving average about three weeks ago.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_03: Yep.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_01: That kind of told me, told me that gold was going to go down and do the same, which it did.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_01: When gold that silver is going to go down and do the same, which it did.
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_01: Now GDX and silver are back above their 200-day moving average, Jai.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_01: So you would sure think the next step is gold.
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we just keep now grinding.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: We're heading into a very strong seasonal period, usually between the end of June and September is one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: Looks to me like uh we've probably seen the lows of this deal.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_01: Whether we can recoup it back, I guess will largely depend on you know that central bank gold demand and things like that we've been talking about.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_01: But it um I don't know.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: To me, it looks like the worst is over.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_01: Do you see it that way too?
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it it I I 100% do.
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_02: And I think I think um that the the the tailwind for the Fed, for this this organization, Comex organization, that they use to suppress the pride of gold against the dollar, etc.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_02: etc.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_02: Their tailwind was this war, uh this war volatility.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_02: And they and you're right, 200-day moving average.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_02: If you put some energy into that, you and hey, look at the look at you know, we're talking about margin increases, increases, increases all the way up.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_02: Today, today, as of this morning, it costs you zero point four nine percent to borrow a hundred ounces of gold.
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_02: Zero point four nine percent under five percent.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_02: Under literally, I mean so into this, as you say, into this sell-off, these momentums, and I'm talking about the Jane Streets of this world, yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_02: They've taken over, they've taken over, and you don't see all their footprints because they're in the options market largely.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_02: And and so what they've done is literally they see these you then take your short profits and keep doubling down.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_02: Why?
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_02: You know you're going to be wrong at both ends, but you'll be right in the middle, and so it's ludicrous when you think about it, when that you've got such a physical to paper divergence where you can actually borrow 100 ounces of gold, that's a lot of gold in real in real terms, that's value, you know, 43,000 dollars worth for for 21 grand.
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, come on.
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_02: So literally under half of 1%.
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_02: No wonder these it went over it overshot.
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_02: No wonder.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_02: Look at all the power behind that.
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_02: All the at 100 to 1.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_02: So you know, so for example, the Fed borrowed 12 tons from the BIS last month.
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_02: 100 to 1, that's 1,200 tons of gold suddenly hitting the market.
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_02: This is, and it's the same with these guys, they're 100 to 1.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_02: You start writing options 150 to one.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_02: So this amount of supply that comes in is incalculable.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_02: It is just no wonder you've got a mean stock situation going on in gold.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_01: It's just shenanigans.
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's it's like it has nothing to do with the actual all the fundamental stuff that we talk about, the devaluation of the currency and and your gold and the value of the it has nothing to do with any of that.
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I mean I well, here we are, and I've been meaning to ask you this too.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_01: Do you lay uh, or what do you think are the primary factors that happened on January the 30th?
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we had this the dollar collapsed.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_01: Uh people don't forget this part.
• 30:01
  SPEAKER_01: The dollar index fell from 99 and a half to 96 and a half in six days in late January.
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_01: So we also had, you know, whatever funds were in there and algos seeing that and buying futures.
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_01: But y'all, you know, we now know about Jane Street and the huge position they had in the SLV.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_01: We get to the last day of the month.
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_01: We get the PM fix behind us.
• 30:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_01: The last day of the month.
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_01: You know, 10 o'clock Eastern.
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_01: China is closed.
• 30:30
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 30:30
  SPEAKER_01: And now it's just on.
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um, do you lay that at the feet of Jane Street and all this?
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_01: Do you lay that?
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I kind of thought maybe the unraveling of positions in that AGQ and some of these double 2x long silver funds and things like that.
• 30:47
  SPEAKER_01: That I've kind of felt that had something to do with what I mean.
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_01: I look, we can talk about, you know, gosh, was it over, you know, was it a bubble and all this kind of stuff at 120?
• 30:56
  SPEAKER_01: And those things kind of appear in hindsight.
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_01: But I wanted to add, but I mean, I've just been dying to ask you this question because I hadn't had a chance to talk to you since all that happened.
• 31:06
  SPEAKER_01: And do you think, Andy, is that is it a bigger deal that price, you know, they had all these shenanigans that drove price up there and then it fell back?
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_01: Is it a bigger is that a bigger deal, or is it a bigger deal that for the first time in our lifetimes, you being considerably older than I am, but for the first time in our lifetimes, silver broke through 50 and stayed there.
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_01: What's what's a bigger deal?
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_01: The fact that all these institutions got involved and poked it up and then smashed it, or the fact that it hasn't gone straight back down.
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, silver, you mean?
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's again, it recovered its its 200-day moving average, just like that.
• 31:42
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, and and you're right.
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, because don't forget that um we've got Russia, China, um uh collateralizing gold and silver.
• 31:53
  SPEAKER_02: They're using it as money.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_02: It they they're actually monetizing it.
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_02: So and what Russia, 1200 tons a year, they they mine.
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_02: Uh what, like six, like, isn't that like like 40% or more of all the all the silver mined?
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, they they don't sell a single ounce, they're collateralizing it.
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_02: They, I mean, so of course, these guys, you're up against, if you start shorting silver, you're up against the military, you're up against the US, you're up against Russia, you're up against China, you're up against everyone who is using silver for for real purposes.
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_02: And now you're taking all this paper.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_02: And the thing is to answer the other question, is the house knows where where you've borrowed your positions, whether it be options or whether it be um or just futures or whatever it might be, they know the other side, they're on the other side.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_02: They have to be on the other side.
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_02: As a market maker, you have to be on the other side of that trade.
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_02: Now, if the house then knows your pain points, then of course, what it's like me going into my getting drunk, going to my bank manager, calling him an asshole and give him more money, you know.
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: That was yesterday.
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_01: You're telling us what you did yesterday.
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_02: No, I mean, but if you know what I mean, it's like how I mean, obviously, you'd let the house know that that where your pain points are, and you reach a point where your pain point is hey, that's we're gonna make money.
• 33:27
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, look at the air beneath that position and bang.
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_02: Now, I only I only figure one day, and we talk about revaluation, one day it's inevitable.
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_02: I know we've talked about it for years, but is there ever a better time now that every central bank is asking for their gold back and they're gonna come knocking on your door?
• 33:51
  SPEAKER_02: Is there ever a better time to actually patch that up?
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_02: Well, you ain't gonna go to the market to buy it, so why would you not just do a keystroke entry, gold revaluation account?
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_02: Bang! We're sorted.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_02: Now we want a higher gold price, like the PBOC do, like every other central bank, like the Bank of International Settlements do.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_02: We all want a steady rising gold price because actually it is a really good collateralizable asset.
• 34:17
  SPEAKER_02: So just think if what this if it's gonna happen, Craig, and we talked about it in the past, there's only one way this could happen.
• 34:26
  SPEAKER_02: It'll be the opposite of what Gordon Brown did.
• 34:30
  SPEAKER_02: They will mark the price to market on a Friday.
• 34:34
  SPEAKER_02: On Monday, there will be a wholly different price.
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_02: You'll be locked in to your your position, but if you're short on the COMEX and you get caught in that weekend position, and you you wrote options against gold or silver at that point, you'll be carried out feet first, instantaneously.
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_02: And I think there's the danger and a warning for these guys who are destroying, who are actually helping to destroy the Comex.
• 35:08
  SPEAKER_02: So thank you for that, you know, because really you're just making it into such a volatile environment that all the good guys have gone.
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so essentially, you know, one of one of these days, they're gonna wake up and they'll be actually on a on a cart on the way out the door.
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_02: It is that serious, it's gonna happen that way.
• 35:26
  SPEAKER_02: No way will anyone, the house will know, and everyone in the know will know what's happening, and it'll just happen over a weekend, and you will be looking at your positions now.
• 35:37
  SPEAKER_02: If you're long Comex, no problem.
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, why would they why would they block you?
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_02: If you're hedged in the T plus one N SFR compliant markets, well, okay, you're hedged.
• 35:50
  SPEAKER_02: But if you're unhedged, if you're naked short, you're dead in the water.
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_02: Nobody's they'll throw you under the bus, just like any other card counter in a casino, under the bus.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_01: Do you do you think they just would cash several if that were to happen?
• 36:07
  SPEAKER_01: And again, you know, and here's the other part of this question, Andy.
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, is say the US revalues it at yeah, just pick a round number,$10,000 an ounce, could be$20,000 an ounce, whatever, because they look at it as deficit neutral free cash.
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_01: Did that doesn't necessarily mean that gold has to trade at$10,000 or$20,000 an ounce the next Monday?
• 36:27
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's an accounting error, but you would just suspect that it would, right?
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_01: It would be like, oh, hey, I mean, I don't know how high do you so anyway.
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_01: In that in that scenario, do you think they just just call it a day?
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_01: They just say, you know what, uh, in working with the CME, uh, we're gonna cash settle all these contracts out at whatever the closing price was back on Friday.
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_01: And uh going forward, there are no more uh gold futures.
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_01: Because I mean, you've somebody that's short uh even 10 contracts, and a price goes up six fold overnight.
• 37:06
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, you don't they don't have that money, their clearing firm doesn't have that, you know.
• 37:10
  SPEAKER_01: Nobody would be able to make that margin call.
• 37:12
  SPEAKER_02: I just wonder, I don't know, this is all kind of uh well, you you it's a good point you make because obviously then a broker, we've seen two brokers up, they they they they don't want that, they don't want right, they don't want that.
• 37:27
  SPEAKER_01: That could be a cascading liquidity problem.
• 37:30
  SPEAKER_02: It it would be so you would then you'd have banks going down because yeah, so I just wonder if they wouldn't just shut the whole thing down.
• 37:37
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know, you know, it's it's all um philosophical discussion.
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_01: We can there are two issues I you know that I see one well one, I mean the one they've laid it out for you.
• 37:48
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Trump and Besson have been talking about this now since shortly after Trump took office, and again last week, yeah, and and again last week, yeah.
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_01: Well, Scott's got some ideas about how we can and you know monetize the asset side of the balance sheet, and then you know, he immediately tries to walk that back because he didn't want anybody front running him, right?
• 38:06
  SPEAKER_01: So he's you know, kind of song and dancing it.
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_01: But you could certainly see where a numbers guy like Trump says, Wait a second, why can't we just, you know, I mean, this stuff is actually trading at$4,500.
• 38:19
  SPEAKER_01: Why don't we just call it$4,500?
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_01: And now, you know, the the the Fed had, you know, we could call in their their notes, and the Fed's got to give us a you know a trillion dollars for that.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_01: And uh ever, you know, hey, that looks like easy peasy money.
• 38:33
  SPEAKER_01: You can certainly see how they could do that or why they would do it.
• 38:37
  SPEAKER_01: And they've been certainly warning you that they would do that.
• 38:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um, again, what I don't I what I don't because it's never happened in my lifetime, I don't know what the market impact would be and the internal guts of it would be to all these other all these other markets.
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_01: And then additionally, on top of that, Andy, we've had even Trump has said, we got to get into Fort Knox and see if it's all there.
• 39:01
  SPEAKER_01: Last week.
• 39:02
  SPEAKER_01: And and you know, like uh the senior center, you know, in the U.S.
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_01: we have the two houses of Congress, the Senate being a little more like the House of Lords, you know, and and they've got allegedly, because they're there for six-year terms, a little more power.
• 39:18
  SPEAKER_01: The senior senator, the guy that's been around, you know, longer than the junior senator is Rand Paul.
• 39:25
  SPEAKER_01: And he has said on countless occasions, and he's from Kentucky, right?
• 39:29
  SPEAKER_01: So that's where Fort Knox is, it's in Kentucky.
• 39:32
  SPEAKER_01: He's the senior senator from Kentucky, and he says, and he has written to Besson and others say, Hey, look, you got 30 days to let me in there and take a look.
• 39:41
  SPEAKER_01: And they just tell him to fondue.
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's like, wait a second.
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're gonna do this, if you're gonna revalue, does the world just take it on faith that you've got it?
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_01: Do you have to show them first that you actually have the 8,133 metric tons before you revalue?
• 40:01
  SPEAKER_01: It wouldn't matter at that point because you'd have just papered over the the so nobody, it would just be another little shell game, but we're just I so can't that's I guess hold a minute.
• 40:09
  SPEAKER_01: Can you do it without proving that you got it?
• 40:11
  SPEAKER_01: And I get I I think you're right.
• 40:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think they can just say whatever.
• 40:14
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we got it.
• 40:15
  SPEAKER_02: I think they'll do it because they know it's not there.
• 40:18
  SPEAKER_02: And I and I think they don't want an audit.
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_02: What do you have to lose?
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_02: They don't want an audit.
• 40:23
  SPEAKER_02: We've proved empirical evidence that it isn't there, and yeah, we don't some of it may be, but some of it isn't, and that we know.
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_02: So so that's a problem.
• 40:34
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, and we're talking about gold here.
• 40:36
  SPEAKER_02: So I think to to to to the way I would see where do you value it, well, you would value it, you know, every central bank is interconnected enough to know what is the fair market value.
• 40:50
  SPEAKER_02: You'd only have to look to China.
• 40:51
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you look to the PBOC, you look to the gold corridor there, and you look at net out, assuming we're gonna square all the Comex positions, call them to market, end off on a Friday or something, assuming that happens, you're not gonna worry about that.
• 41:07
  SPEAKER_02: So now what is the price?
• 41:09
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 41:10
  SPEAKER_02: Well, the price was 5,000 before Jane Streak shot it up to 5,600.
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_02: So it was 5,000.
• 41:16
  SPEAKER_02: And we saw big volume, and we know this.
• 41:19
  SPEAKER_02: We saw sovereigns buying it at five grand all day long.
• 41:24
  SPEAKER_02: So when it when it shot up, they stopped.
• 41:27
  SPEAKER_02: They they hang on, that's not the price.
• 41:30
  SPEAKER_02: Not that's not the real it's in other words, people don't weren't and anymore wanting to bid in the physical market for something that they valued at five thousand that was trading at 5,600.
• 41:44
  SPEAKER_02: Well, hang on, that's a bit far for us.
• 41:46
  SPEAKER_02: Well, just hold back, which creates a bit of air for them to say, hey, now we can do this.
• 41:53
  SPEAKER_02: So I think every central bank knows what the fair market value would be without the COMEX.
• 42:00
  SPEAKER_02: They would know, and every market maker, cartel, non-cartel, whatever, any market maker would know worth their salt, any liquidity provider who is interconnected with all of these sovereigns, central banks, and are providing monetary gold to and from, they would know what the price is.
• 42:20
  SPEAKER_02: The price is probably 5,000 minimum.
• 42:24
  SPEAKER_02: So if you then valued it at 5,000 overnight, I'm just saying, picking a number, it could probably be higher, but anyway, say if it was 5,000, yeah, what would then happen is that everyone and their brother would say, Hey, I missed this, and it you'd suddenly you'll see that price go up and up and up.
• 42:44
  SPEAKER_02: Now, anyone who's monetized it at that price, the US Treasury included and the Fed included, would be happy to see that rise.
• 42:53
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, well, we're in, we're not fighting it anymore.
• 42:56
  SPEAKER_02: So let it go.
• 42:57
  SPEAKER_02: Let it if if that's what is the fair value price, it's probably 6,000.
• 43:02
  SPEAKER_02: It might be 7,000.
• 43:04
  SPEAKER_02: More realistically, it's probably around 7,000 to 8,000 in realistic numbers.
• 43:09
  SPEAKER_02: So that would just happen by osmosis.
• 43:13
  SPEAKER_02: That would happen.
• 43:14
  SPEAKER_02: Now suddenly we know it's what going down below 5,000.
• 43:17
  SPEAKER_02: You can no longer borrow, um, borrow uh 100 to 1 uh Comex futures anymore.
• 43:23
  SPEAKER_02: So you can't screw with it.
• 43:25
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so really that's the price.
• 43:28
  SPEAKER_02: You'd only have one physical price in the market, in the global marketplace.
• 43:32
  SPEAKER_02: It would uh be self-arbitraged instantly.
• 43:36
  SPEAKER_02: Anything that wasn't quite on would be grabbed, anything that was overpriced would be sold.
• 43:42
  SPEAKER_02: You would have this global price.
• 43:44
  SPEAKER_02: That would be all we ever wanted.
• 43:46
  SPEAKER_02: Isn't that all we ever ever wanted?
• 43:48
  SPEAKER_02: We're not saying I won't want to make money, I just want to I want to protect my wealth and know what my best options are.
• 43:56
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah.
• 43:57
  SPEAKER_01: That's all we you and I, as long as we've been.
• 44:00
  SPEAKER_01: Friends, which is now like 15 years.
• 44:04
  SPEAKER_01: But that's that's all you and I've ever wanted.
• 44:07
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, find me an actual just a fair price, you know, where I exchange here.
• 44:13
  SPEAKER_01: You give me, if I'm gonna give you some of my fiat currency and you're gonna give me an ounce of gold or silver.
• 44:20
  SPEAKER_01: I don't want to jack around with, you know, and all of the financialization that's been done, you know, so that the banks and the big firms like Jane Street can pad their quarterly, you know, trading profits.
• 44:34
  SPEAKER_01: Just let's get us back to the real thing.
• 44:36
  SPEAKER_01: I look, I it's clearly we're headed that way.
• 44:39
  SPEAKER_01: I think we're clearly headed to higher prices, you know, this bump in the road we had due to the war and concern about higher interest rates, which is just nonsense, but also the central bank selling and and the month of March, which was actually a net negative for a month, all of that now is in the rearview mirror.
• 45:02
  SPEAKER_01: And any country that did sell is gonna now be in the market to buy back.
• 45:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think we are in a good position as we head into the remainder of the year.
• 45:11
  SPEAKER_01: And then, you know, let's just let's just see what old Kev has to say at the Fed.
• 45:16
  SPEAKER_01: Um, again, this notion that he is gonna be, you know, the son of Volcker is just nonsense.
• 45:24
  SPEAKER_01: Andy, it I mentioned that month of May, 293 billion dollars in a deficit, interest expense was 130 billion dollars in a month.
• 45:36
  SPEAKER_02: Wow.
• 45:37
  SPEAKER_01: This is not, they can't do it, they just can't, and so they are laying the groundwork for Walsh and Bessent and Trump and whoever comes after Trump to work together to try to manage this thing through uh negative real interest rates and yield curve control that establishes that in the final throes of trying to keep the plate spinning.
• 46:02
  SPEAKER_01: So you throw it all back together.
• 46:05
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think we're gonna be seeing, I mean, who God knows what can happen, but I don't know.
• 46:10
  SPEAKER_01: We're definitely not this notion that go, I'll buy gold when it goes back to$2,000.
• 46:16
  SPEAKER_01: Good, good for you.
• 46:17
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, you're gonna be waiting a while.
• 46:19
  SPEAKER_01: I this is the I think the lows are in for the year, uh, for several.
• 46:24
  SPEAKER_01: I mean the lows are in, period, and um uh it's gonna start getting very interesting again in the weeks ahead.
• 46:32
  SPEAKER_02: There's no longs on board.
• 46:34
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, yeah, there's no longs on board.
• 46:37
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, every technical tells you it's oversold, every fundamental tells you it's oversold.
• 46:41
  SPEAKER_02: We were already getting had central bank support at 5,000.
• 46:44
  SPEAKER_02: Well, what are we doing down here?
• 46:46
  SPEAKER_02: Won't last long because and we know we know they're buying, we know they're buying, uh, we see it every morning.
• 46:52
  SPEAKER_02: Did you know that on you didn't you mentioned the day the Thursday that we bottomed?
• 46:58
  SPEAKER_02: The fix at the fix.
• 47:00
  SPEAKER_02: Now we we were on with Shanghai at the time, at the PM fix$78 premium at the PM fix.
• 47:08
  SPEAKER_02: At about the PM fix, not afterwards, but at it so and then I thought afterwards it was about 13 bucks or 20 bucks or whatever it was, but 78 bucks.
• 47:18
  SPEAKER_02: Now I haven't seen that since 2000 November 2008 when gold went up a hundred, it tripled, it went up a hundred and ninety something percent from that six hundred and eighty buck low.
• 47:34
  SPEAKER_02: It went up that amount because we're in a similar situation.
• 47:40
  SPEAKER_02: The okay, that was a financial crisis, we were coming back off it.
• 47:44
  SPEAKER_02: We've just had a similar situation, a financial crisis caused by a war, not by anything else necessarily about Lehman going out the door and Bear Stearns going out of business.
• 47:55
  SPEAKER_02: It isn't that, but this time it was a war, and we saw just the same kind of freaked out situation where gold initially sold off.
• 48:06
  SPEAKER_02: Now there's no one on board.
• 48:07
  SPEAKER_02: There wasn't anyone on board that way.
• 48:09
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it then, so to me, that was the marker that said, I haven't seen that since 2008.
• 48:16
  SPEAKER_02: How many times can I say that?
• 48:18
  SPEAKER_02: And have how many times have I seen knocking on for a hundred dollar premiums in a physical market?
• 48:24
  SPEAKER_02: Physical, physical, physical delivery.
• 48:26
  SPEAKER_02: I need, if I buy that, I am taking delivery, but I'm turning up in London for a T plus one delivery, 78 bucks cheaper than I just bought it for, and I'm taking it.
• 48:38
  SPEAKER_02: And so that then has the effect of back swelling into the Comex, and suddenly the COMEX guys go, cover.
• 48:47
  SPEAKER_02: Hey, and you know what's going to happen?
• 48:48
  SPEAKER_02: They're going to EFP that comex position into London, T plus one delivery.
• 48:54
  SPEAKER_02: So it might take two to three days to mess around with all the bits and pieces.
• 48:59
  SPEAKER_02: But I think we're still seeing that residual race to cover underway right now.
• 49:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 49:08
  SPEAKER_01: And it really might get accelerated.
• 49:11
  SPEAKER_01: Uh again, the GDX went down to its 200 day and washed out, which led gold to do it, which led silver to do it.
• 49:19
  SPEAKER_01: But now GDX is back above its 200 day and silver is back above its 200 day.
• 49:24
  SPEAKER_01: It's only a matter of time till I mean it's telling you where gold is headed.
• 49:27
  SPEAKER_01: And and Andy, I just as you were speaking, I thought of one last thing that again, everybody's so quick to you know jump on the negative and and head out to the exits, you know, and everybody can look back now in January and go, you know, that bullish percentage index on the mining shares was at a hundred.
• 49:48
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, it only goes zero to a hundred.
• 49:50
  SPEAKER_01: And so that might tell me that that maybe that was when and you look back in hindsight, you're like, you know, next time it gets to a hundred, I might take some.
• 49:58
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, but now that that bullish percentage index last week went to zero.
• 50:05
  SPEAKER_01: Zero zero.
• 50:06
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, which means can't go any lower, but yet nobody wanted to buy.
• 50:12
  SPEAKER_01: Nobody wanted nobody.
• 50:13
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, this is a big buy.
• 50:14
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it wasn't my side, it was it was for me personally, it was, but everybody looks at that and every it's just so it's I maybe it's just human nature, right?
• 50:24
  SPEAKER_01: To only to really focus on just one side.
• 50:28
  SPEAKER_01: There will be another time where you know things will it's like the the the weekly chart.
• 50:35
  SPEAKER_01: You can see it in gold, you know.
• 50:36
  SPEAKER_01: For the last since price broke out in March of 2024, it rallies 20 and go sideways for three to five months, rallies 20, go sideways for three to five months.
• 50:44
  SPEAKER_01: There will be a time where we'll go out, you know, be way up, you know, rallying like crazy again.
• 50:49
  SPEAKER_01: There, the bullish percentage index be back to 100, and everybody be all excited, and then we'll enter another consolidation phase.
• 50:55
  SPEAKER_01: But with all of this stuff that you've discussed underpinning the actual physical price, yeah, you just buy the dip, man.
• 51:05
  SPEAKER_01: You just buy the dip and you do what what what we've been talking about.
• 51:08
  SPEAKER_01: You know, if the central banks are taking their currency reserves and buying gold, then you know what?
• 51:13
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody listening to you and I might want to think about doing the same.
• 51:16
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and and and and just to sum it up, I don't know anyone, um, Craig, and and correct me if you know anyone, I don't know anyone that sold a single ounce of gold or silver, physical gold or silver, right, in this very tiny correction when you look at it on, as you say, go to a daily weekly chart.
• 51:38
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 51:38
  SPEAKER_02: What I didn't know.
• 51:40
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't, you know, there's some people, there's some some friends of ours that have, you know, famously stated, oh, I sold my silver, you know, whatever because it was overcooked.
• 51:50
  SPEAKER_01: And well, I I sure hope as heck you're buying it back right now.
• 51:55
  SPEAKER_01: Uh now'd be a good time to be buying it back.
• 51:57
  SPEAKER_01: That's great.
• 51:57
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, you know what?
• 51:58
  SPEAKER_01: You can buy back three ounces for every two that you sold.
• 52:01
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, good for you.
• 52:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yay, you that's awesome.
• 52:04
  SPEAKER_01: I'm so happy for you.
• 52:06
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't sell Jack, Jack, and I they're mm-mm.
• 52:09
  SPEAKER_01: They know there, I don't know.
• 52:11
  SPEAKER_01: People always say, When when do you sell your gold?
• 52:14
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 52:14
  SPEAKER_01: I guess it'll be apparent when the time comes, but that time ain't now.
• 52:19
  SPEAKER_01: There's no way.
• 52:20
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, with all that's coming down the road, you know, as they try to keep the plate spinning and the ship afloat and whatever other metaphor you want to come up with.
• 52:28
  SPEAKER_01: Um, that time isn't now.
• 52:30
  SPEAKER_01: And I've just, yeah, I've watched my my uh accounts go down, my mining shares go down, and I'm like, well, that sucks, but whatever.
• 52:40
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the math is the math.
• 52:42
  SPEAKER_01: The train's just gonna keep going moving forward, and piece of gold.
• 52:46
  SPEAKER_02: Um it's still there.
• 52:48
  SPEAKER_02: That piece of gold, still there.
• 52:49
  SPEAKER_01: There it is.
• 52:50
  SPEAKER_01: There it is.
• 52:51
  SPEAKER_01: And like I said, if it was the way the money supply is growing and the way the debt is growing, then that's why the money supply is growing, they got to service it all.
• 53:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, just that if it took eleven hundred dollars to buy that ounce and then twenty one hundred dollars to buy that ounce, and now forty two hundred dollars to buy that ounce, you can be certain that there's a moment coming where it's gonna be eighty, four hundred dollars to buy that ounce.
• 53:15
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, of course it will.
• 53:18
  SPEAKER_02: So if you if you're not margined, if you haven't borrowed, what's the problem?
• 53:23
  SPEAKER_02: Why why would you just not do what smart thing is just a little bit each and every month?
• 53:29
  SPEAKER_02: Those everyone I know in the past, you go back and you look.
• 53:34
  SPEAKER_02: If I bought or if they'd bought just a little bit every month, even if it was a small amount each and every month, how can you be wrong?
• 53:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 53:44
  SPEAKER_01: And Andy, you know, we you and I again we've talked about this for 15 years.
• 53:49
  SPEAKER_01: Granted, we don't have you and me and everybody listening, we don't have the effect of China buying 10 metric tons in a month, right?
• 53:58
  SPEAKER_01: But every single ounce that you hold and buy, and every ounce that I buy and hold, and anybody else buys and holds, removes it from their system.
• 54:08
  SPEAKER_01: That's one more ounce that they can't lever a hundred times to fiddle around with.
• 54:13
  SPEAKER_01: And at some point, that whole leverage scheme is gonna get pulled so tight, like this rubber band I keep playing with, that it's gonna snap.
• 54:23
  SPEAKER_01: And when it does, and they don't have that playground anymore.
• 54:27
  SPEAKER_01: Again, whether that's done through revalu revaluation at the official level or whatever, when it snaps with a capital W, um that price discovered is not gonna be forty, three hundred dollars either.
• 54:42
  SPEAKER_01: So we just keep buying deck with it.
• 54:45
  SPEAKER_01: Listen to Craig.
• 54:46
  SPEAKER_02: Do everyone has our own duty to to be a part of the solution, buy physical, take it away from the uh from these bad actors, and ultimately they'll go out of business and you'll be well.
• 55:03
  SPEAKER_02: And I think Craig, on that point, you know, you made a very good point.
• 55:07
  SPEAKER_02: Let's take it off these bad actors, let's just take it, keep it, and it causes them a problem.
• 55:15
  SPEAKER_02: Yep, not us.
• 55:16
  SPEAKER_02: But thank you for joining us today, my friend.
• 55:21
  SPEAKER_02: I know you're busy, I know you gotta get on to the next thing.
• 55:25
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe it's just a football match, I don't know what it is, but but I know you you you you definitely got something planned.
• 55:31
  SPEAKER_02: So um, but thank you for joining us.
• 55:34
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for the invitation.
• 55:35
  SPEAKER_01: It's always so fun, you know.
• 55:38
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, I think the world of you, and and uh I've been a big proponent of of all that you do and all the projects that you're involved in.
• 55:48
  SPEAKER_01: And I've just look, we're we're fighting, we're foot soldiers.
• 55:53
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think we've moved up, we're still just enlisted foot soldiers in the in the fight, Andy.
• 55:58
  SPEAKER_01: But for sure, uh we shall we shall keep slugging away despite our advanced age.
• 56:04
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and in the end, you know, if we've helped a handful of people, yeah, that's more than we'd have helped if we just had remained on the sidelines, keeping all this information to ourselves.
• 56:15
  SPEAKER_01: And so I'm thank you for for having me on, and um, I hope we can do it again soon.
• 56:21
  SPEAKER_02: Bless you, brother.
• 56:22
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
• 56:24
  SPEAKER_00: All right, thanks for joining us on this episode of Life in the Vault, brought to you by Kinesis Money.
• 56:29
  SPEAKER_00: And a huge thanks to Andrew McGuire and our featured guest, Craig Hemke, for cutting through all of the noise and sharing insights that you just won't find anywhere else.
• 56:38
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you like this episode, make sure you subscribe right now.
• 56:42
  SPEAKER_00: Give us a like right now, uh, turn on those notifications so you never miss out.
• 56:46
  SPEAKER_00: And don't forget to share this episode with someone who really needs to hear the real story behind the headlines.
• 56:52
  SPEAKER_00: And we're back soon with more hard-hitting truths from inside the precious metal space.
• 56:57
  SPEAKER_00: And until then, thanks for watching, and we'll see you right here next time on Live from the Vault.
• 57:02
  SPEAKER_00: Bye for now.